Educational materials nr. 7This article is about Balance Sheet metrics.
They are including metrics, which show proportions and structure of the company. Structure of the company include own capital, assets and loans. It can tell also about financial stability of the company too.
Equity-to-Asset — relation equities to assets. Show using own resources in producing of the products.
Cash-To-Debt — relation cash to debt. If more — that is better. If this indicator is higher then 1, that means, that company can pay her debts more then 1 time. Indicate financial strengh of the company.
Debt-to-EBITDA — relation debt to operational income. Helping metric.
Debt-to-Equity — relation debt to own capital. Critical meaning — 0,4. This meaning can depend from sector of the company and current expectations and situation of the company.
Interest Coverage — relation operating income to interest payments. Indicates financial strengh. If higher — that is better.
All of them are important in the complex analysis of the company and her financial stability. If company has good operational results, but not good financial stability and dangerous structure with high ammount of debts, she will not be good candidate for investing.
Analysis
EURUSD: Long Term Perspective & Trend Analysis
hey guys,
I know that many of you are expecting a coming bearish movement on a daily on EURUSD.
analyzing a weekly time frame though, I want to warn you that the pair has still much space for a bullish continuation.
on a weekly, the price is clearly trading in a global bearish trend.
spring's covid bullish rally made the market set a higher low and triggered a bullish rally,
and it looks like a long term goal for buyers is 1.21 - 1.25 wide supply cluster.
this zone is based on 2008'th, 2010'th, 2012'th lows and 2018'th high.
in my view, a strong weekly bearish movement will most likely start from that area.
however, what makes me extremely cautious is the recent higher low.
usually, it is the first strong signal of a coming trend change.
if the above-mentioned zone is broken buy buyers, It will signify a long term bearish trend violation and start of a new long term bullish trend.
as always we can only speculate about the probabilities of both events.
but clearly decision point is close.
Fundamental vs Tecnical Aanysis 8.22.20 In this video I am suggesting a free service that might be useful to some traders. My trading is technically based, however, I believe there is value to fundamentals... and I explained this in the video. I think the video is worth listening to... and I describe these relationships using the DXY, Gold, Bitcoin... as it pertains to the fundamental analysis offered by this free service. In your pursuit of a successful trading strategy, at some point part of you will try to eliminate any information that seems superfluous, confusing, or causing loss. It is understandable why many technical traders will eliminate the fundamental component. I am trying to argue the need for balance and the process to take in more information in a way that doesn't create more stress if it is done judiciously. Whether you like it or not successful trading isn't just technical... and not just that, having a broader understanding of markets, even if you choose to be a technical trader( which I am )... will more likely enhance your results with a realistic perspective on your part.
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Get a Percy.
Regards
Darren
Educational Materials nr.5 Net Margin is bigger than Operating Hello dear investors,
This article is about rare situation, when net margin is bigger then operating margin. Such situation need to be analyzed well to understanding potential of the company.
This happen from external or internal reasons:
1. When company can’t pay taxes and/or have tax benefits. Company will not pay taxes untill she will get net profit as tax benefit. Profit from tax benefit can be holded or payed as dividends. It have good influence on stock growning. In some countries this situation can be because of low or zero taxation.
2. Net profit can be from non-operating activity. It is income from investing activity of the company, selling assets, currency course changing and so on. Company can make her status better in a financial statement. It will seems from big difference between P/E and P/E without NRI. That is mean, that company have most income not from operating activity and is bad signal for investors.
Analysis on a BIO case.
Net margine is bigger then operating in 8 times. Company has difference between P/E and Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow in 8 times. It means, that declared income does not supported by real result. P/E equality to the P/E without NRI means, that company have income just from operating activity.
In this case reason of bigger meaning net margin from operating margin is in taxation. Company does not have cash to pay taxes, so she had tax benefits. She wrote this tax benefits in net income.
Cases, when net margin is bigger then operating are rare and need serious research and analysis to understand profitability from investing in this company.
Wish you have good investing and big profits,
Financial analist and adviser,
Valerii Selin
Educational materials nr. 4Hello, dear community.
This article is about metrics, which show real finance situation of the company. They are based on Cash Flow Statement. Metrics, based on Income Statement can be unreal, but based on Cash Flow Statement are hard to forge.
Describing of them:
CFI – Cash Flow from Investing. Calculate with buying-selling securities, emission of bonds and dividend payments.
CFF – Cash Flow from Financing. Calculate with buying-selling of company assets.
CFO – Cash Flow from Operations. Is the most important in analyzing of financial situation. Calculate with sells, inventory costs, interest payments, taxes and cost of goods sold (COGS).
FCF – Free Cash Flow. Is sum of CFI, CFF, CFO.
P/FCF – relation price of the stock to FCF on stock. Is metric of overvaluation/undervaluation of the company. Is important near, close meanings of P/E to P/FCF. That is mean, that real activity of company has no difference or little difference from declared results.
Price-to-Owner-Earnings – Relation price of the stock to owner earning on stock. Show real activity of the company, unlike P/E.
Owner earnings – Profit of the owners of the company. Owner earnings = net profit + depreciation & amortization +/- another non-cash costs – average annual maintenance capital expenses.
But even Cash Flow statement do not secure from manipulations. For understanding real situation needs:
1. Exclude tax benefits related to employee stock options.
2. Exclude anomaly big changes in currents assets. For example, it is big changing of accounts receivables, inventories, accounts payable. All this changes tell, that company try to manipulate data to make better presentation of financial results.
3. Minus costs, which needs to support operational activity (taken from CFI).
Pros metrics, based on Cash Flow Statement:
+ Show real situation of the company business
+ Hard to forge – any changes are seen
Cons metrics, based on Cash Flow Statement:
- Needs checking and re-calculations
This indexes give a possibility to check veracity of financial results. And they complement analysis from Income Statement and Balance Sheet metrics.
Wish you have good investments,
Financial advisor and analyst,
Valerii Selin
Educational materials nr. 3Hello everyone, who are interested in value investing.
This article is about metrics, based on Income Statement data. They are used for first-look analysis to understanding is this company good for investing. This metrics show over/undervaluation of company. Undervalued companies are good to investing.
Description of indicators:
PE – relation of stock price to net profit on stock. Indicate over/undervaluation of the company. Her critical meaning depends from sector of economic, in which works company.
PE without NRI – relation of stock price to net profit on stock, but do not include unusual profits from non-operational activity (selling part of assets, real estate and so on). If PE without NRI is equal PE – company have profits only from operational activity and is good signal.
Forward PE – consolidated meaning future PE from analytics.
PB – relation price of stock to the book value of stock. Measure of over/undervaluation of the company. If PB = 1, it is mean, that company have fair value. Usually PB is more than 1 and become 1 or lower only in crisis.
PS – relation price of stock to sales/revenue.
EV-to-EBIT, EV-to-EBITDA, EV-to-Revenue – another variant of metrics under/overvaluation of the company. Can be used instead PE or with PE.
Revenue – Or sales.
EBITDA – Income after paying COGS (Cost of goods saled), SG&A (selling, general and administrative expences) and before payment of D&A (depreciation and amortization), taxes and interest rates.
EBIT = net profit – EBITDA after payment D&A, taxes and interest rates.
Enterprise value (EV) – price of company at absorption by other company. EV = Market Capitalization + Debt + Preferred Shares – Total Cash
Market capitalization = shares at market*price of share
PEG – relation price of stock to earnings growth on share for 5 years. Indicates market waiting. If PEG > 1, it is mean, that company is overvalued by market and/or analysts. If PEG<1, that mean, that company is undervalued by market and/or analysts. Uses as auxiliary metric.
Pros of this metrics:
+ They give “photography” of company on the stock market
+ Give a possibility to make comparative analysis with other companies.
Cons of this metrics:
- Don’t give a valuation of financial health of the company
- Don’t give a valuation of structure of the company
This negative sites decides by using other metrics.
Indicators, based on the Income Statement, are important part of analysis of the company and give understanding of her status at analysis moment and needs of next analysis. But using this metrics needs to use that with other elements of quality and quantitative analysis.
Wish You have good investing,
Financial analyst and advisor,
Valerii Selin
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1. Strategy
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This video is just 17 mins long but explains how we believe we can help you in all of the 3 areas above.
Would love to read your comments, please let me know what you think.
Thank you,
Darren
Educational materials nr.2 Hello dear community, wish you have good day.
As it was in educational materials number 1, for analysis of company actively use metrics. They include calculation financial data from financial statement. This calculation uses to compare with other companies in sector and to compare with history of company. Metrics are part of complex analysis. Sources of metrics can be taken from Morning Star, GuruFocus and other.
Bad meanings of metrics do not mean, that company is bad. On metrics have influence external factors and all financial data are based on a last published statement. That is why this indexes are analyzed with financial statements of the company. For example, big debts can be general characteristic of sector.
We can make classification metrics as:
1) Based on income statement. Used to understanding overvalue/undervalue of company at moment.
2) Based on Cash Flow statement. Indicator of financial health of the firm.
3) Based on Balance sheet. Useful when you need to understand structure of the equity, assets and debts – indicate money-management of the company.
Exist many other metrics, but they are used in special methods of analysis of company.
Pros:
1. Easy to use and interpretation;
2. Some objectivity in analyzing of company;
3. Easy-to-understand calculations;
Cons:
1. Exist risk of manipulation of financial data in financial statement. Some guarantee exist, when company have an audit;
2. Need to check financial statement;
3. Do not give all-include analysis, needs research of environment and sector of the company;
Metrics are good in analysis of the company: easy-to-use, objective, possibility to understand situation on market and comparing with competitors. But they must be complete with qualitative analysis. This is comparing with competitors, analysis of market and research of financial statement.
Wish You have big profits and good investment,
Financial analyst and advisor - Valerii Selin
Educational materials nr.1Good day, dear community. Today I will tell you about value investing.
Value Investing is investing, based on economical indexes of the company and her real (fair) value. Real value is a guarantee of stable growing of the company.
This kind of investing is not for speculations. It was created for long term investment. Decision about investing is after quantity and quality analysis.
For quantity analysis use special indexes with own evaluation criteria (price to earnings , cash to debt and other). Quality analysis include fundamental analysis . It is analysis of economics, industry and sector.
Often use comparative analysis with competitors and environment. Important part is analysis and checking financial statements of the company.
The most famous value investors are Peter Lynch, Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffet. All of them had success using own variants of value investing.
Pros:
1. Big profitable;
2. It needs less time on investing;
3. Long term;
4. Less influence of speculations.
Cons:
1. Can be big losses in crisis (more than 50%);
2. Need more resources, than usual trading;
3. Influence of news and fundamental factors;
4. Need better investing preparations.
Wish You profits and good investing,
Financial advisor and analyst – Valerii Selin
What drive BTC price vs. value?Every day, tons of information are flowing around. Most of the times, we get conflicting signals. Some are bullish, the others bearish. So how to view them in a simplified way? The chart above is our method.
What’s your view? Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
Pitchfork Trend | XAUUSD | EducationOn the analysis you can see a perfect example of a pitchfork trend on the chart. In this case it is the price of gold. A Pitchfork trend is particularly good for entering and exiting a trade on the right time. You can see in the past there where good chances to go in with BUY until the end of the Pitchfork trendline.
Scalping opportunity on the 1m/3m/5m timeframes .....Those that like to scalp or want to learn can using our strategy.
Its very clear to see how to follow price as shown - also our members can test using our strategy tester and hone in on the settings and parameters even further. However, this video is just showing standard settings.
Either follow price or use the labels for SL and TP targets.
Part close at TP2 and leave TP3 until the reverse signal or SL to entry, could work too.
Lots of different ways to manage the position once you are in - even taking 15 pips a time would have worked a treat.
Regards
Darren
Blue FX
This is the only video you need to watch today! PROOF of successHi Guys and Girls
I hope everyone is well.
I am personally really excited about this video, our strategy and the community we are building.
I genuinely don't think there are many services that can verify and validate the profitability of a strategy in a few minutes with data for nearly 320 trades across nearly 30 pairs for our May and June to date performance.
We can.
Risking 1% per trade - double account growth - crazy right? Even risking 0.25% is just under a 30% gain. Or just trade less pairs and still get great results - as we show in the video.
In the video we talk about the changes and improvements to V3 - this can be a live trading journal you just need to follow. No need for myfxbook lot size calculations or the Stinu (which is great!) app - we have it all built in automatically - set your balance, your desired risk and as if by magic or some forces from the universe - the lot size you should trade appears directly with the trading signal. #gamechanger
These statistics are also on 'one size fits all' settings which still prove to be great (apart from on 4 pairs) - we know we can improve these a lot more and that is what we are currently working on - this will look like a PRESET pull down menu that does it automatically.
There is no need to leave trading to 'chance' and being 'lucky' or not - we have PROOF our strategy works, watch the video and take confidence, positivity and self belief into your own personal trading journey.
Regards
Darren
PS - Thanks again to Connor and our secret weapon - we call him Uncle Wizard.
May review - H4 TF 4 Pairs +9% Gain at least!A review using H4 time frame and why we use ATR - ATR SL and TP will be built into V3 that's imminent.
EURJPY
GBPJPY
GBPAUD
GPPCAD
Over 9% on the table with 1:2 - even more potentially.
Very easy to trade and less 'noise' on the H4 timeframe.
Regards
Darren
Weekly Recap Part 1Part 1 weekly review.
Explaining our strategy and how to be patient removing the low probability setups.
Part 2 is incoming.
Our weekly stats are posted in our public channel too - done manually but on launch V3 will have instant back testing - to save me time and to prove how profitable and successful this can be.
Regards
Darren
Weekly recap Part 1 - how to be more selective with our tradesWeekly recap, we got cut short at the end so watch out for Part 2!
We are focusing on checking the below to remove moving forward some of the losing trades that weren't valid for last week;
- Did the H4 break the ema cleanly for the new signal to be valid? As shown this was not the case on the GBP Buys for last week so they werent valid or probable.
- Do the candles indicate trading volume, i.e. long bodied candles - or low volume small bodied candles (If so wait for the market to show it's hand)
- Consider the market structure - is this is a pull back, could this be a false break of the ema on the H4 timeframe - if so wait for the next H4 candle to confirm, or wait for the pull back and retest on the H1 timeframe
- When we have a consolidating price structure - consider the use of a buy stop or sell stop order to then catch the volatility in the direction of the signal
- If the EMA is horiztonal and price stuck in range - wait for a new high or new low for the new trend to start - demonstrated in the video.
I hope this helps our members take some more care into their entries - there are substantial opportunities weekly; we are afford to me a little more selective with checking the above.
Regards
Darren