EURUSD-2
THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND,BUT HOW TO ACCURATELY DETERMINE THE WINMany of us have been taught that the trend is our friend and we should trade in the direction of the trend.As we have eventually discovered this is easier said than done.I am a Mechanical Engineer by profession so i was inclined to find an excellent way to determine the trend of a market,forex currency pair, cryptocurrency pair or a stock.
EDUCATION - TOP REVERSAL PATTERNS ⚡At the end of a trend, there is a typically a reversal pattern indicating to us that the trend is about to reverse. There are 3 main patterns that you NEED to know.
1. Double Top/Double Bottom
A double top/bottom pattern is a chart pattern that consists of 2 consecutive peaks of similar height indicating that there is not enough buying/selling pressure to surpass the extremes of the price. This leads to a reversal in trend.
Double top is a bullish to bearish trend reversal.
Double bottom is a bearish to bullish trend reversal.
For a safe entry, entry would be after the break of the neck line (the last swing point) which is a confirmation that the it is a valid double top/bottom pattern.
Double Top:
2. Rising Wedge/Falling Wedge
A rising/falling wedge is a chart pattern that occurs when price is making higher highs and higher lows (in an uptrend – rising wedge) and lower lows and lower highs (in a downtrend – falling wedge). As the pattern progresses in the wedge, the range of the price contracts and is confined between 2 lines which get closer. Price eventually breaks out of the wedge and creates a reversal.
Rising wedge is a bullish to bearish trend reversal.
Falling wedge is a bearish to bullish trend reversal.
For a safe entry, wait for a breakout of the wedge to confirm the validity of the wedge pattern.
Rising Wedge:
3. Head & Shoulders/Inverse Head & Shoulders
A head and shoulders pattern is a chart pattern that appears as a baseline with three peaks. The outside two peaks (shoulders) are close in height and the middle is highest.
A normal head and shoulders is a bullish to bearish trend reversal.
An INVERSE head and shoulders is a bearish to bullish trend reversal.
For a safe entry, it is often advised to enter on the break of the neckline as that would be confirmation of the head and shoulder pattern.
Inverse Head & Shoulders:
Do your best to find them in your analysis!
EDUCATION - TOP REVERSAL PATTERNS ⚡At the end of a trend, there is a typically a reversal pattern indicating to us that the trend is about to reverse. There are 3 main patterns that you NEED to know.
1. Double Top/Double Bottom
A double top/bottom pattern is a chart pattern that consists of 2 consecutive peaks of similar height indicating that there is not enough buying/selling pressure to surpass the extremes of the price. This leads to a reversal in trend.
Double top is a bullish to bearish trend reversal.
Double bottom is a bearish to bullish trend reversal.
For a safe entry, entry would be after the break of the neck line (the last swing point) which is a confirmation that the it is a valid double top/bottom pattern.
Double Top:
2. Rising Wedge/Falling Wedge
A rising/falling wedge is a chart pattern that occurs when price is making higher highs and higher lows (in an uptrend – rising wedge) and lower lows and lower highs (in a downtrend – falling wedge). As the pattern progresses in the wedge, the range of the price contracts and is confined between 2 lines which get closer. Price eventually breaks out of the wedge and creates a reversal.
Rising wedge is a bullish to bearish trend reversal.
Falling wedge is a bearish to bullish trend reversal.
For a safe entry, wait for a breakout of the wedge to confirm the validity of the wedge pattern.
Rising Wedge:
3. Head & Shoulders/Inverse Head & Shoulders
A head and shoulders pattern is a chart pattern that appears as a baseline with three peaks. The outside two peaks (shoulders) are close in height and the middle is highest.
A normal head and shoulders is a bullish to bearish trend reversal.
An INVERSE head and shoulders is a bearish to bullish trend reversal.
For a safe entry, it is often advised to enter on the break of the neckline as that would be confirmation of the head and shoulder pattern.
Inverse Head & Shoulders:
Do your best to find them in your analysis!
Gartley Pattern Trading Strategy
Gartley patterns are harmonic chart patterns based on Fibonacci numbers.
The first stop-loss point is often positioned at Point X and the take-profit is often set at point Fibonacci retracement numbers.
I normally open 3 small positions or a big position and close partially at 0.618, 0.5 and 0.382 Fibonacci numbers.
Always save lossesTrading without a save loss ruined me. It took me an year to come into agreement with myself that I will never beat the market. Furthermore using a save loss call for responsibility. Below are the benefits according to me
1. It has helped me define my entries and exit points more accurately.
2. Am more patient, knowing that I might lose prompt me to wait for a more ideal trade setup
3. Am now trading higher timeframe because the charts are cleaner and support and resistances more likely to hold.
Losses are painful, it's even more painful if unanticipated and unplanned for. Remember
@ Trade the markets but protect your heart. Plan a trade, wait then trade the plan.
Good luck 💙
Round Numbers on Mirror ChartsTradingview provides unique opportunity to watch round numbers both EURUSD and USDEUR.
Round numbers do work as support and resistance. Perhaps the only levels that one can rely on.
But it should be remembered that American continent watches and trades primarily USD vs EUR, while in Europe it is the opposite case.
Watch for round numbers confluence on mirror (inverted) charts, i.e. USDEUR and EURUSD to find true sopport and resistance.
The top of eurusd was round number confluence 0.81 - 1.23 level.
Right now, the major resistance is 85 level (usdeur). If price will get through that it will stumble at 1.17 (eurusd)
I Show You My Trading Strategy Applied On EURUSDHi, I decided to share my profitable trading strategy which is really simple by the way.
I use trend lines, supports and resistances. I don't use any other indicator. It is maybe not the best but for sure the best that fit my psychology and my lifestyle.
Hope this helps !
Trading - Expectations VS RealityHey Traders,
In this post we will aim to clear some of common misconceptions of trading and how we can help you go further in your trading career by giving you all the tools you need to better understand the market and kill the game.
____________________________________________________________
1. Trading is easy.
Trading is relatively easy IF you know the rules of the market and use certain analytical techniques. Once you have a full arsenal of technical tools, you can easily understand the market and figure out where it may go next.
2. Market moves in one direction.
That can be true to a certain extent where we have trending markets. However, within that trend there are various types of pullbacks. Once you understand the different market phases, you can make money whether it's a trending or ranging market. Opportunities are endless!
3. Buy when low. Sell when high.
If only things were that straight forward, right? Sometimes the lows aren't really the lows and the highs push higher and higher. This is when you need to understand the different patterns and structure of the market to help you figure out where the best possible place is to buy or sell.
Once we understand the market, we need a trading plan. How do we enter? Where do we enter? Where is the stop loss? This is where having rigid checklist really helps! You can tick things off the list and grade the trade setup from good to bad and then enter accordingly using various entry methods.
It may sound like a lot of but once broken down into little bits, you can learn this EASILY and know exactly how to analyse and enter trades!
____________________________________________________________
What we will be covering:
- Market structure: Impulse & Corrections
- Using Index charts to correlate your trades (Very important Topic!)
- Drawing a trendline and levels correctly – There’s a hack to it!
- Using Moving Averages Correctly
- Combining higher timeframe & lower timeframe
- Different patterns and how to trade them
- More topics to come!
Comment below on what other topics you would like to see!
I hope this post help clarify some of the misconceptions of trading and the different elements involved.
See the links below for information on how we can help you!
Trading - Expectations VS RealityHey Traders,
In this post we will aim to clear some of common misconceptions of trading and how we can help you go further in your trading career by giving you all the tools you need to better understand the market and kill the game.
____________________________________________________________
1. Trading is easy.
Trading is relatively easy IF you know the rules of the market and use certain analytical techniques. Once you have a full arsenal of technical tools, you can easily understand the market and figure out where it may go next.
2. Market moves in one direction.
That can be true to a certain extent where we have trending markets. However, within that trend there are various types of pullbacks. Once you understand the different market phases, you can make money whether it's a trending or ranging market. Opportunities are endless!
3. Buy when low. Sell when high.
If only things were that straight forward, right? Sometimes the lows aren't really the lows and the highs push higher and higher. This is when you need to understand the different patterns and structure of the market to help you figure out where the best possible place is to buy or sell.
Once we understand the market, we need a trading plan. How do we enter? Where do we enter? Where is the stop loss? This is where having rigid checklist really helps! You can tick things off the list and grade the trade setup from good to bad and then enter accordingly using various entry methods.
It may sound like a lot of but once broken down into little bits, you can learn this EASILY and know exactly how to analyse and enter trades!
____________________________________________________________
What we will be covering:
- Market structure: Impulse & Corrections
- Using Index charts to correlate your trades (Very important Topic!)
- Drawing a trendline and levels correctly – There’s a hack to it!
- Using Moving Averages Correctly
- Combining higher timeframe & lower timeframe
- Different patterns and how to trade them
- More topics to come!
Comment below on what other topics you would like to see!
I hope this post help clarify some of the misconceptions of trading and the different elements involved.
See the links below for information on how we can help you!
Price Action vs Indicators: Who wins?Happy Friday, ladies and gentlemen. The topic of our first educational post for the day is the following: Price Action vs Technical Indicators.
To begin with, each and every traders has his or her own strategy. Some of them would prefer using only indicators to open trades, some would use indicators as confluences, some of them do not use indicators at all and so forth. The truth is, indicators deceive a lot of new beginner traders into thinking that they are the key to successful trading and investing. Right after hoping on the charts, beginners tend to saturate their graphics with tons of indicators which contradict to each other. One indicator shows a buy signal, another one shows a sell signal, which makes it harder for traders to make decisions on the markets. Of course, using some spesific indicators as confluences to open positions is not bad at all. If it fits your strategy, you may add some technical indicators to backup your analysis. But at the end of the day, using several indicators and saturating your beautiful graphs with them will never lead you to success.
All in all, as it has been stated above, everyone has his or her own strategy. Therefore, if indicators work for you, go ahead and implement them in your analyses! At the end of the day, it is all about making money, isn’t it?
Have an amazing Friday and a brilliant upcoming weekend, everyone!
EURCHF - How To Trade This BreakoutEURCHF is within a descending channel of an ascending channel... pretty confusing I know but have a look at the chart and you can see which way price will be heading. What we need to do now is find the best entry which is safe and clean.
From the diagram in the chart, you can see that our entry will only be after the break of the descending channel and after a bullish correction such as a bull flag. We need to make sure that price has the momentum to move up so we will be waiting for a breakout of the bullflag before entering with stops below the correction.
Goodluck and trade safe!
EURCHF - How To Trade This BreakoutEURCHF is within a descending channel of an ascending channel... pretty confusing I know but have a look at the chart and you can see which way price will be heading. What we need to do now is find the best entry which is safe and clean.
From the diagram in the chart, you can see that our entry will only be after the break of the descending channel and after a bullish correction such as a bull flag. We need to make sure that price has the momentum to move up so we will be waiting for a breakout of the bullflag before entering with stops below the correction.
Goodluck and trade safe!
EMAS ARE YOUR BEST TRADING FRIEND TRADE TIPAlthough EMAs lagg but every trader at every level needs to have a combination of several that they use
they are a vital tool for every trader and a must have
the right EMA after the right market move can be your crystal ball to the next few weeks direction of a pair or as in this case Bitcoin
in this chart you will see a cross of our 2 favorite emas after a few bearish 8 hour sessions
this was a signal to us to short and this gave us 24,000 Bitcoin monkey nuts
Its all about finding the right pair the right time frame and the right ema crossing
this is especially important in Crypto currency trading where have little confluentual history to go on
have a great trading week
The Importance of Yearly Open / CloseAs you see, yearly open (usually its the same as yearly close) is crucial for determining the price bias during the year.
For euro to continue bullish, it needs to close ABOVE yearly open on weekly. But even if it does, there will be struggle at this level.
Then, as you see, yearly pivots usually serve as yearly tops and bottoms.
We saw price reversal at yearly pivot this year. Also during previous years price always stops or reverses at yearly pivots. Watch them!
Keep an eye on yearly opens!
For educational purposes only.
Currency Correlations: The unspoken truthHappy Friday, ladies and gents, and welcome on our another educational post for the day. Today, we are gonna talk about positive currency correlations and examine how they impact our trading. But to begin with, what is currency correlation? Currency correlations are a statistical measure of the extent that currency pairs are related in value and will move together. If two currency pairs go up at the same time, this represents a positive correlation, while if one appreciates and the other depreciates, this is a negative correlation.
As it can be clearly inferred from the graph, the charts of EUR/USD and GBP/USD have been chosen to be scrutinised. These two currency pairs are highly correlated and are moving in the same direction. As we can see, 2 major similarities have been identified on the Daily timeframe charts of both currency pairs. However, there are a lot more than just 2. As it can be inferred from Similarity #1, the price managed to leave a long wick in late February 2020 for both pairs. Looking at Similarity #2, we can observe that the price is forming a top for both pairs and preparing to reverse and continue its move to the downside.
Now that we have talked about the basics, let's move on and talk about some problems faced by currency correlations. Most of the time, new traders do not pay attention to this basic concept and make false decisions without noticing. I have seen hundreds if not thousands of traders that ignore the rule of currency correlations and make irrational conclusions like the following: opening Buy positions on EUR/USD and opening Sell positions on GBP/USD. Of course, you can do that as well, depending on the timeframe that you are trading and depending on how long you are planning on keeping the trades open. However, on the longer term trading, you won't be able to succeed. Furthermore, most of the new traders open buy or sell positions for both of the trades, which results in increasing their risks. If you open BUY or SELL positions for both trades at the same time, and the price moves in the opposite direction of your bias, you are gonna lose both of the trades. Again, not in all cases, but 80-90% of the time, as the two pairs are highly correlated.
What can be done to avoid being the victim of the highly correlative pairs and keep it safe? There are two strict rules that we follow, which have always worked for us:
-Open positions for the trade with the better setup
or
-Open positions for both trades but cut the lot sizes by half
So in the first case, we compare the two setups that we have, in our case it's either EUR/USD or GBP/USD. For instance, let's say that EUR/USD gives us more confluences for opening a transaction. Therefore, what we do is, we ignore GBP/USD and trade EUR/USD. For the second case, let's say that we use 1.0 lot size to open transactions. What we can implement, is using 0.5 for each trade and opening positions for both EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
I hope you liked this educational post, family! If you have any suggestions on what we should post next as an educational post, feel free to let us know in the comment section below. Have an awesome upcoming weekend, everyone!
Trend Continuation Patterns with Real-Time ExamplesGood morning, Traders! Today we will make an educational post about the most used corrective patterns. There are numerous patterns, even more complex, such as Elliott counts where each internal wave of corrections is explored, but the reality is that it is not 100% necessary to apply it in the market.
The idea of this information is to provide a simplified, useful and applicable overview. For this, we will explain the corrective patterns and then we will show real-time examples that are being presented in the market at the moment or that have happened recently.
The examples will be in high temporalities so that the charts are valid for a few days/weeks.
One concept that encompasses all the corrective patterns that we are going to talk about is that they are all trend continuation patterns. That is to say, it is a correction that is formed and then continues to the previous trend. That said, in all cases, it is necessary that prior to the pattern, there is an impulse in that direction, that is, if we see a triangle, for it to have an upward resolution it is necessary that the previous trend be upward. While there are some cases where the patterns can go in both directions depending on the context, we won't get into them.
Keep in mind that we ALWAYS have to analyze the context of the pattern correctly. For example, if we see a bullish continuation pattern forming near a major resistance or trend line that could interrupt the price movement, it is clearly not the place to put your money. You should always look for the correct pattern + the appropriate scenario for the trade, where the risk-benefit ratio that we obtain is appropriate.
🔸Pennant Pattern: is a type of continuation pattern formed when there is a large movement in a security, known as the flagpole, followed by a consolidation period with converging trend lines—the pennant—followed by a breakout movement in the same direction as the initial large movement, which represents the second half of the flagpole.
🔸Ascending Triangle: it is created by price moves that allow a horizontal line to be drawn along the swing highs and a rising trendline to be drawn along the swing lows. The two lines form a triangle. Traders often watch for breakouts from triangle patterns.
🔸Flag Pattern: when price moves counter to the prevailing price trend observed in a longer time frame on a price chart. It is named because of the way it reminds the viewer of a flag on a flagpole. The flag pattern is used to identify the possible continuation of a previous trend from a point at which price has drifted against that same trend. Should the trend resume, the price increase could be rapid, making trade timing advantageous by noticing the flag pattern.
🔸Descending Wedge: The wedge pattern is a continuation pattern formed when the price bounces between two downward slopings, converging trendlines. It is considered a bullish chart formation but can indicate both reversal and continuation patterns – depending on where it appears in the trend.
🔸Rectangle: is when the price reaches the same horizontal support and resistance levels multiple times. The price is confined to moving between the two horizontal levels, creating a rectangle.
Real-Time examples:
AUD/USD Descending Wedge:
EUR/GBP Rectangle:
EUR/NZD Rectangle:
GBP/USD Flag:
NZD/USD Flag:
USD/JPY Flag:
Understanding the NFP EU PumpHere are some questions I put out to my community group the other day followed by the answers. The reasoning being the move has been annotated on the chart.
Why did price slowly decline prior to NFP?
- Price had to decline slightly before NFP to mitigate the impulsive move created earlier in the day.
- Price had to stop out break and re-test buyers with a tight stop loss
- Price had to lure sellers into the market before NFP
Why did price reject the exact box marked before skyrocketing?
- Price skyrocketed because it had gathered enough liquidity from stopping out the buyers.
- It utilised the previous order block to skyrocket to take out the impulsive sellers before NFP.
📚Easiest and most accurate way to trade EUR/USDHi traders!
I have long wanted to share the simplest trading strategy, which is suitable for both experienced and beginners.
The easiest way to trade EURUSD is to trade channels + support and resistance lines.
1. How to find a channel.
As you can see from the chart, over the past 6 years (immediately after Brexit), the price has always been in a channel.
You need to build channels on the D1 timeframe.
I have provided you with the existing channels on the chart, now the price is in a growing channel.
To build a new channel, 4 points are enough (2 above and 2 below). Although for more advanced traders, 3 points will be enough.
Examples.
2. Once you have built the channel, you can trade.
3. With the entrances sorted out. Everything is simple here. It will be more difficult to choose SL and Tp
To make it simple and easy to remember (especially for beginners) always set SL 3 times less than TP (Risk to reward ratio 1 to 3)
It remains to decide on the TP.
Strong support and resistance lines will help us a lot.
It is better to close the trade when the price reaches strong lines. In fact, there are few important lines, so they are not difficult to find (otherwise, they are most likely not important lines).
Example:
4. Important notes.
1) It is better to trade with the trend (open buy trades in an upward channel and sell trades in a falling channel)
2) Better not to enter a trade during very important events (like Covid-19)
3) False breakouts occur at times, but the price quickly returns to the channel, so after the price quickly returns, you can open a trade.
4) If the price is both on the channel line and + on the strong line, then you can open a deal with 2 times larger volume
5) If the price touches the channel line twice in a short period of time, then it's okay if you open two trades + you can double the stop loss in this case.
5. Output
In total for the last 2.5. of the year there were 15 entries, 14 of them in plus 1 in minus (Accuracy 93% !!)
Average risk to reward ratio of 1 to 3 (although entries are so accurate that experienced traders can make a risk to reward ratio of 1 to 5)
If you take the risk for trade 1% of the deposit (although you can take 2% with such accuracy) then:
Profit 14 * 3 = 42%, and loss 1%
The total profit is 41% for 2.5 years, that is, 16.4% + RISK-FREE profit per year, only for EURUSD.
experienced traders know these are great numbers.
Find 2-3 more such strategies and you will be an excellent trader
Like and comment if you like the idea
This will be my motivation to create posts like this.
📚Easiest and most accurate way to trade EURUSDHi traders!
I have long wanted to share the simplest trading strategy, which is suitable for both experienced and beginners.
The easiest way to trade EURUSD is to trade channels + support and resistance lines.
1. How to find a channel.
As you can see from the chart, over the past 6 years (immediately after Brexit), the price has always been in a channel.
You need to build channels on the D1 timeframe.
I have provided you with the existing channels on the chart, now the price is in a growing channel.
To build a new channel, 4 points are enough (2 above and 2 below). Although for more advanced traders, 3 points will be enough.
Examples.
2. Once you have built the channel, you can trade.
3. With the entrances sorted out. Everything is simple here. It will be more difficult to choose SL and Tp
To make it simple and easy to remember (especially for beginners) always set SL 3 times less than TP (Risk to reward ratio 1 to 3)
It remains to decide on the TP.
Strong support and resistance lines will help us a lot.
It is better to close the trade when the price reaches strong lines. In fact, there are few important lines, so they are not difficult to find (otherwise, they are most likely not important lines).
Example:
4. Important notes.
1) It is better to trade with the trend (open buy trades in an upward channel and sell trades in a falling channel)
2) Better not to enter a trade during very important events (like Covid-19)
3) False breakouts occur at times, but the price quickly returns to the channel, so after the price quickly returns, you can open a trade.
4) If the price is both on the channel line and + on the strong line, then you can open a deal with 2 times larger volume
5) If the price touches the channel line twice in a short period of time, then it's okay if you open two trades + you can double the stop loss in this case.
5. Output
In total for the last 2.5. of the year there were 15 entries, 14 of them in plus 1 in minus (Accuracy 93% !!)
Average risk to reward ratio of 1 to 3 (although entries are so accurate that experienced traders can make a risk to reward ratio of 1 to 5)
If you take the risk for trade 1% of the deposit (although you can take 2% with such accuracy) then:
Profit 14 * 3 = 42%, and loss 1%
The total profit is 41% for 2.5 years, that is, 16.4% + RISK-FREE profit per year, only for EURUSD.
experienced traders know these are great numbers.
Find 2-3 more such strategies and you will be an excellent trader
Like and comment if you like the idea
This will be my motivation to create posts like this.
How To Trade a P-Shaped Volume Profile (EUR/AUD Analysis)Hello guys,
in today’s day trading analysis I would like to show you how to trade the P – shaped profile on a nice example that has formed on EUR/AUD.
Price Action Analysis
If you look at the EUR/AUD (60 Minute chart) then you can see, that last week the price went down, then up, and then there was a rotation.
This tells us that the price tested the lower prices, but Buyers pushed the price upwards again – back into a rotation which is considered a current “Fair Value” area.
Fair Value – that’s where most of the trading takes place. Market participants consider the price to be fair there. At least for now.
Volume Profile Analysis
If you look at the Weekly Volume Profile, then you can see that it is the thickest at the place where the rotation (Fair Value) was. This makes sense, because most trading took place there.
But, there is one more important place in the P – shaped profile . It is the little “bump” in the lower part of it.
This little “bump” is called a “Volume Cluster“. In this case, it points to a place where strong Buyers placed their aggressive ( Market Orders ) to turn the price upwards again. Back into the “Fair Value” area.
Even though this Volume Cluster can’t match the volumes traded in the Fair Value area, it is really significant. The reason is that it points to a place where strong and aggressive Buyers were active.
When the price comes back into this area, then it is likely that those Buyers will become active again and that they will want to push the price upwards again.
This is why this Volume Cluster represents a Support (around 1.5494). When the price makes it there at some point in the future, then I expect there will be a reaction to it.
How To Trade The P-Shaped Profile
The way to trade this would be to hold the Long trade from 1.5494 until it reaches the Fair Value area again. Ideally its Point Of Control (POC) . In this case it’s at 1.5574.
This is a long way, right? So, what I prefer instead is to split the trade in two halves. Bank the first profit soon (30 pips max). And then secure your position by moving SL and trail the 2nd half towards the POC.
I hope you guys liked today’s analysis! Let me know what you think in the comments below!
Happy trading,
-Dale