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EUR/USD case study: The magic of the 100% target projection Would you like to trade with better precision and understand what are the areas in the chart where the smart money tends to take profits? In this case study, we unveil one of the overlooked yet most useful tools you will ever come across. By drawing a 100% fibonacci projection, you can anticipate the reversals in price, due to: - The side in control of the cycle takes profits off the table. - Counter-trend positions are added by contrarian players. - These are the areas where limit orders are found by market-makers. As an example, we have picked the most recent activity in the EUR/USD, to guarantee that we don't cherry-pick the most convenient time to run this case study. Out of the 9 projections drawn in the span of 10 days, the results are as follow: - In 7 occasions, the 100% projection represented the exact level where price turned around or paused before the resumption of the trend. - In 1 instance, the 100% proj failed to be reached by a few pips (Oct 16) - In the latest 100% proj on Oct 19, it was the only time that the 100% proj was shrugged off and price continued. The way to draw the projection is by dragging the fibonacci tool from the latest swing up to the breaking point. You will be amazed at the accuracy rate of the 100% projection acting as a wall in response to the above reasons. Note, when fundamental-led interferences, the pricing of the pair will tend to disrespect these lines. The higher the potential volatility of the event, the less relevant these drawings are, with one required t perform the same exercise from higher timeframes. Get to practice this exercise on your favorite pairs. The more you do, the better you will get at picking your profits (full or partial). Trade safe!
Education
by FlowState
Education: Change of trend !Prior analysis Definition trend and change of trend ( Trend reversal) Downtrend - Definition A downtrend comprises a repeating sequence of: 1) A downward extension 2) A swing low 3) An upward pullback 4) A swing high A downtrend ends when price breaks the swing high which leads to the lowest swing low of the trend Uptrend - Definition An uptrend comprises a repeating sequence of: 1) An upward extension 2) A swing high 3) A downward pullback 4) A swing low An uptrend ends when price breaks the swing low which leads to the highest swing high of the trend Please support the setup with your likes, comments and by following on TradingView. Thanks
Education
by DatTong
1
Education: Change of trend !Prior analysis Definition trend and change of trend ( Trend reversal) Downtrend - Definition A downtrend comprises a repeating sequence of: 1) A downward extension 2) A swing low 3) An upward pullback 4) A swing high A downtrend ends when price breaks the swing high which leads to the lowest swing low of the trend Uptrend - Definition An uptrend comprises a repeating sequence of: 1) An upward extension 2) A swing high 3) A downward pullback 4) A swing low An uptrend ends when price breaks the swing low which leads to the highest swing high of the trend Please support the setup with your likes, comments and by following on TradingView. Thanks
Education
by DatTong
43
EUR/USD: Lesson on reading tick volume & types of accelerationWhat if you could add a ‘non-lagging’ indicator that would allow you to make better-informed decisions as a trader? That’s where tick volume, which measures the number of times the price ticks up and down, comes into play. Did you know that tick volume activity and actual traded volume in spot forex exhibit a relationship that is extremely high? All it takes is to find a broker such as Global Prime Forex with sufficient depth of liquidity and learn how to properly interpret these volume patterns that occur over and over. First, let’s briefly touch on why is volume such a powerful piece of information. The answer lies in the influence it has to move prices and similarly because it communicates the involvements of the big or smart money. Volume is the fuel to cause new cycles and tells us the degree of commitment that it exists to endorse a certain buy or sell-side campaign. By understanding the bias of big players, we can piggyback their market bias. Let’s now back up with empirical evidence why tick volume matters. In a landmark research paper published back in 2011 by Caspar Marney, veteran forex trader, who served tenures at banks such as UBS or HSBC, debunked the myth of the limited usefulness of tick volume in spot forex. Caspar, after a thorough study, concluded the existence of striking high levels of accuracy between tick activity and actual traded volume, which vindicates the importance of tick data and hence the relevance of this tutorial. I once read a great analogy for volumes, which I can’t credit to one particular individual as it was many years ago and I completely lost track. He would compare volume to the accelerator of a car, price movement to the actual car motion, while a universal level of resistance/support would be a ‘hill’. If the car is expected to keep going up a steep hill, do you think gently pressing the gas pedal would do the job? The forward motion of the car going up the hill can’t possibly be long-lasting unless there is more power (gas) applied, correct? What if you were to press the accelerator to its maximum capacity yet the car motion is still stagnant going up the hill? That would be another clue, right? Do you start to see how the study of volume can be of real value to tells us a story about the intentions of market participants? So, how can we tell if a price movement has the characteristic of being smart money-driven? To accomplish our objective, we will stick to our 3 elements, that is, the car (price), the gas (volume) and the hill* (key level). How price heads into major areas of interest will be absolutely key to make a well-informed call about the environment as traders we face. Volume Sequence: Type Of Volume Acceleration Depending on the type of trader you are, this is all you may need to get your entry confirmation. Other traders will need some extra info before pulling the trigger, and that’s fine too. It’s all about styles. I will be exploring both scenarios, that is, the two most basic yet most fundamental volume sequence to constantly be monitoring, while I will also provide different individual candle formations that add an extra input of potential confirmation. Let’s dive into it. The first pattern to be aware of is what I personally refer to as false acceleration , even if it’s more commonly known as exhaustion sequence. If you observe price heading into a key decision point on lower or decreasing tick volume, we are likely to find ourselves in a context where a rejection of that level is likely. Remember, the car is trying to go up a hill with little gas being applied. It doesn’t bode well unless gas (volume) increases. This type of acceleration in price without the backing of volume tends to be a false picture of the market intentions, and certainly not one that carries the interest of the smart money. The low tick volume is caused by the professional money staying away from participating in the move. The absence of this big money riding the move results on thinner market liquidity, which facilitates a larger price extension even of low volumes. Unless the ‘smart money’ takes part in the move, the hill will get too steep for the car to keep moving forward. Opposite to the pattern above described, let’s now look at a price movement that does carry the participation of big players, and therefore a continuation of the directional bias should be expected. I call it smart acceleration . If the price moves towards a decision point or the level is broken amid higher or increasing tick volume, more often than not, it communicates that the bias has the backing of the institutional money. When this happens, a continuation of the developing trend is expected. Find an illustration of this pattern below.
Education
by FlowState
EUR/USD: How To Trade Market StructuresEUR/USD: How To Trade Market StructuresAuthored by Ivan Delgado, Head of Market Research at Global Prime. This educational post has been exclusively adapted for tradingview users. In this tutorial, I walk you through how to read these cycles, which go by the name of “market structure”. You will be provided a frame of reference for you to properly interpret the ever-evolving ebbs and flows under any market condition. You will be able to approach the charts in a mechanical way to constantly be in tune with the right context at play, which in its simplest form, comes down to trade trends or ranges. Minimum Of Two Closes Beyond Last High/Low: To confirm that a bearish trend or down-cycle is evolving in a healthy manner, not only we need to see the low printed being lower than its previous low, but we also should expect at least two closes beyond that low or support area as further evidence that the market is accepting and building value. Failure to print at least two closes may be a precursor to what’s often referred as head-fake or false breakout, and while the move still holds its merit to qualify as a new low in the cycle, the quality of the leg is poor in nature. Don’t Lose Sight Of The Forest For The Trees: While in this exercise we don't provide higher timeframe charts to keep it clean, you must, by all means, avoid the trap of being short-sighted by only sticking to one chart analysis. When conducting your market structure studies, it’s all about building a thesis about a particular direction by finding concurrence from higher time frames down to your trading time frame. We wouldn’t recommend using more than 3 charts as your reference or you may suffer from so-called “analysis paralysis”. What this means is that if you are going to find an entry trigger off the hourly, you should then understand what type of conditions are dominant in the immediately higher time frames. The most popular in this case would be the 4h and daily charts. Developing Rules to Validate Swing Lows/Highs : This is a key point that often gets overlooked by market participants by letting too much guessing play a role. When analyzing the charts, how do we determine what constitutes a relevant swing high/low? We need to find a mechanical approach that will allow us to qualify what we understand by relevant swing highs or swing lows in the chart. As a general rule, if a swing low/high doesn’t make it to at least the 50% retracement of its previous swing, you probably want to disregard that price movement as not relevant enough to constitute a valid leg. After all, why would you want to consider a leg that originates from a low which doesn’t even make it to the 50% retracement as a point of interest relevant enough? Trendlines: A Visual Representation Of The Cycles: This is another rule to incorporate. If on a downtrend we make a higher high as in the case of the EUR/USD, but this high fails to break the descending trendline, be extremely cautious as more often than not, it can easily lead to a quick reversal in line with the dominant cycle. The power of a trendline lies not only in its capacity to provide an entry trigger but as a blueprint to help you understand the type of dominant market flows and potential locations to engage upon your own models. In the chart, I've drawn the most obvious ones. Always pay special attention on a 3rd touch of a trendlines, which is the time when it tends to hold the most weight. Transitions: From Trends To Ranges: We’ve come to the point in the market structure where the dominant flows start drying up due to increased profit-taking, change in ebbs and flows due to removals of liquidity, intervention by market-makers, economic data-driven moves, etc. While in a down-cycle, the interpretation of the chart is straightforward, when is it that we can say with certainty that we’ve transitioned from a trend into a consolidation? In the case of the EUR/USD hourly chart, firstly, we must see a failed test of a valid low (Oct 5th). Secondly, a recovery above the 50% fib retracement of the most recent swing high would confirm that we have entered a consolidation phase, which would last until the most recent valid high or low is broken, with at least two closes above/below the level. In this context, don’t forget that the consolidation is within the context of a down-cycle not only in the higher time frames but also on the hourly. Until buyers manage to break and hold above the latest valid swing high, which doesn’t occur, the risk remains to the downside. Magnitude Of The Cycle: Another major clue that will help us determine the health of the cycle is the type of progress made by the dominant side in control of the cycle. In this section of the analysis, we need to ask the following question: Are the new legs in the cycle increasing or decreasing in magnitude? The latest swing lows in EUR/USD, if we were to measure its extension from the last high to the newly established low, saw a slide worth 128 pips vs the previous leg down, which only achieved a move of 120 pips. This carries an important message: The most recent flows communicate that sellers are increasing its commitment on each new cycle low (greater supply imbalances), therefore, this is yet another clue that the risk should stay skewed to the downside. Velocity Of The Cycle: When it comes to the distance the price moves, the magnitude is only ½ the equation. The other ½ has to do with the velocity of the move or the speed. Was the new leg created after a fast and impulsive move? Or did price make a new low or high with the movement being sluggish, compressive and taking too long to form? A good rule of thumb is to count the number of candles it took to achieve a new leg. In the illustration, you can see how it took 21 hourly bars to achieve 120 pips vs 18 bars to net 128 pips. Bottom line: Before the rebound seen yesterday, the cycle continues to prosper in a healthy manner. Levels : You shoud mark lines of support and resistance based on higher timeframes. They should be obvious to spot. The considerations to be given when selecting these areas include the number of times the area has been tested (minimum of 2 times), type of reaction away from this area (the stronger the more relevant), time frame (the higher the timeframe the more significant the level is). Projection: Targets In A New Cycle: By far, the most accurate measure I have found to set targets (partial or full take profits) when trading cycles is to measure the 100% fibonacci projection from the most recent valid swing high to its low. Note, there will be enough cases when events outside one’s control will cause prices to fluctuate erratically and not achieve these targets. Don’t forget to also factor in potential hurdles in the form of higher time frame support/resistance areas. You should see these levels as simple guides but far from certain outcomes. If the cycle continues in the expected direction, you will start to appreciate the power and usefulness of these targets to consider taking profits or trailing stops in hope of an ever larger yield in your trade. In the case of the EUR/USD, notice how downward targets (on a sequence of 100% fib proj) were reached almost to the pip of the way down? With the price having reached its 400% fib proj, it suggests a potential recovery near term. How To Trade Market Cycles: The real power lies in the congruence of factors from a top-down approach, aiming to have as many aligning in your favor as possible. In the example of the EUR/USD exercise, the recent down cycle in the hourly had the backing of the H4 and daily cycles as well, which undoubtedly reinforces the chances of picking the right direction to trade. Now, does this mean that the bearish market structure in the hourly will be respected? Not at all. Remember that each individual trade is just a random event within the context of an exploitable edge. However, by conducting the proper market structure analysis, you do obtain that edge in terms of the location to engage that can offer a relatively low-risk entry for a potentially much larger yield. So, how can you go about trading these cycles? First and foremost, assuming you are trading off the hourly chart, you want to make sure to trade also in line with at least the immediately higher timeframe cycle (H4), and ideally both (daily and H4). You also want to double-check that the hourly market structure is trending as per the rules of two closes beyond the last valid swing low/high to confirm a new leg in the cycle. It’s important that you then check the absence of nearby cluster levels from higher time frames or economic data releases that may disturb the structure. Next is to make sure that the price remains guided by a descending or ascending trendline. Lastly, and this point is key, pay attention to both the magnitude and the speed on the creation of a new cycle. As a general rule, regardless of the type of cycle, I personally don’t see enough risk-reward value if one engages ahead of a 50% fib retracement. If we are in a healthy cycle with lower lows, decent magnitude moves and no obstruction of higher timeframe levels, it makes the 50% fib retracement a great location to start looking for trades based on your ideal entry technique. Some traders may prefer to set limit orders at this levels with a stop a few pips away from the most recent high/low (this approach would make the most sense if the underlying trendline is still respected). Others may prefer a confirmation trigger such as the break of a trendline, a particular pattern (pennant, triangle) or a specific price action formation such as engulfing bars, pin bars. Whichever way you approach your trades, it should nonetheless be from having an inner peace of mind that the area you are looking to trade from holds value on the basis of decent risk-reward prospects. Alternatively, and this is subject to one’s discretion, I personally remain more cautious to enter at the 50% fib retrac and tend to wait for either the 78.6% fib retrac or a test of the previous valid swing low/high in the case that we had a break but we never confirmed the cycle by having two closes past the level. If the cycle is confirmed but the magnitude is nowhere close to what would qualify as healthy, be more cautious trading around the 50% (wait for trigger). Personally, a great pattern I've spotted over the years for a potentially large risk-reward is to be on the lookout to trade a retracement to at least the 78.6% Fibonacci within the context of a strong and healthy cycle. This trades tend to offer the most bang for your buck, even if you must be patient for them to come about. How To Trade Ranges: When the price starts trading confined in a box or consolidation phase, we know this is a period of reassessment before the next directional move. Unless a breakout occurs, the only area where you really want to engage as part of a range include the upper or lower edge. A useful exercise to conduct every time the price fluctuates within a range is to draw a 50% fib retracement, and start to observe what side of the range the price spends the most time at. Is is the lower half or the higher half? The side where price usually spends the most time tends to be the most vulnerable for a price breakout. See when the EUR/USD entered a range between Sept 21–28? Notice how the attempts to trade above the 50% fib retracement of the range were consistently rejected while price would accept below? Conclusion: By now you’ve hopefully come to grips about the importance to keep your charts neat and clean, away from unnecessary indicators while embracing the power of reading market structures in a proper way. You have also gained enough knowledge to ultimately, through your own analysis based on a rules-based approach, find these low-risk areas to enter trades. While some degree of subjectivity will always be required, this tutorial offers you a roadmap from which to find the order within the chaos. You must become the primary conductor of your own orchestra as the forex symphony keeps playing. The right interpretation of market cycles will allow you to make sense of the music being played at all possible levels.
Education
by FlowState
What Support Looks Like When It BreaksLooking at the m15 chart only can lead you to have the correct idea but in the wrong place. By looking at high time frame charts you get a better picture of when a trend is in place, when a trend is no longer working or when there is no trend and we're in a range. On the attached charts a daily time frame (top left) has a defined up trend and at 1.6700 the trend line and price meet for the 3rd time of Sept 27th. Here traders wanting to keep adding to long trade would initiate a long trade. However by the close of the daily candle that idea is no longer valid, as the trend line did not hold as support. Moving down through the smaller time frames we see that the days leading up to the 27th September have been consolidated into small daily moves. There is a clear line of support under these days that is clearly broken on the H1 chart etc. This equates to the time when the Daily candle approaches the rising trend line. What we see happen next is that the broken daily horizontal support is now acting as horizontal resistance and price is trapped between this new horizontal resistance and the rising daily up trend. When the horizontal resistance holds and the daily rising trend line are broke on the H1 candles traders waited for a quick retest and then went short. Accelerating the move.
Education
by OctaFX_Official
2
EUR/USD: How To Trade Off Liquidity Post A Structure BreakoutIf you are a discretionary trader, this chart illustration will hopefully enhance your understanding of what to consider key areas in a chart where opportunities may arise. They go by the name "liquidity areas/levels". Understanding the levels where you want to engage in buy/sell action is absolutely critical. After all, the ABCs of technical analysis orbits around finding these key levels. One of the typical pitfalls aspiring traders fall victims of is the failure to select the right price location with the prospects of enough risk-reward, and most importantly, do it in a consistent manner. Let’s look into a simple yet very effective strategy based on trading off liquidity levels for a 2:1 risk reward with a stop half the size of the previous swing low/high that led to the break of the structure. But first, what are liquidity Levels? These are levels where decisions will be made as they serve as a historical reference. Similarly, these areas will always attract interest as that’s where pockets of liquidity via the placement of stop loss orders reside, hence why in the institutional world levels of support and resistance are often referred as liquidity levels. The formation of a swing high or a swing low in the chart comes as a result of an imbalance of supply/demand. As a rule of thumb, unless the rejection makes it to a 50% retracement of the previous high/low, be in high alert of a low quality liquidity level; the more vigorous the rejection of a level, the more chances it has of holding on a retest, especially if the rejection has led to a new cycle high or low. Other factors such as confluence, market conditions (risk on/off), market structure, economic data, will play a role in determining if the area will hold or fold. Other nuances one must be aware of when trading levels of liquidity include factoring in the time. If the separation between the creation of the liquidity area and the first retest comes after an excessive number of days/weeks, the level may not hold the same weight as it used to as the market context evolves and orders pulled. At the same time, if you find two or more liquidity levels nearby, market participants will tend to place their stop loss orders at the most extreme level amid the clustering of multiple levels of interest. To properly illustrate a level of liquidity where an opportunity to buy or sell may be present, simply draw a horizontal line from the latest wick or swing high/low. In this EURUSD hourly chart, I randomly selected over a month of trading the EURUSD, with a blue line drawn if the liquidity level led to a break of the market structure (via higher highs or lower lows) or a red line if the retest of the liquidity level occurs amid a failure of a break in market structure. By the end of the exercise, it should be abundantly clear how engaging in buy/sell trades prior to a break of the market structure carries much greater chances of success.
Education
by FlowState
What TimeFrame do traders look at most? What should they look @?I am still working on my first strategy (been for weeks now) and have several more after this, but from what I saw the 4-HR and 1-HR chart seem to provide the best signals. Also, all my strategies are based on the daily chart (if I see these factors align on daily then I look for signals on H-1 H-4 charts such as macd divergence or something). So are these timeframes the ones people look at the most? I will look at trading views ideas to find out! 28 09 2018 Daily ideas 13 pages: 234 15 min ==> 18 ideas 30 min ==> 11 ideas 60 min ==> 46 ideas 120 min ==> 13 ideas 240 min ==> 65 ideas 480 min ==> 5 ideas 720 min ==> 4 ideas 1D ==> 56 ideas 3D ==> 4 ideas 1W ==> 12 ideas Total = 234. H4 = 27.7%. H1 = 20%. Covered > 70% with just D1 H4 H1. Ideas per ticker: BTC--- = 76 ideas (and all the top ones) XRP--- = 23 ideas EURUSD = 15 ideas Gold = 13 ideas ("Gold," + "XAUUSD,") ETH--- = 12 ideas GBPUSD = 9 ideas USDJPY = 9 ideas LTC--- = 9 ideas Total for those: 166 All the rest no one cares about: 68. USD in the name = idk around 200 :D ----- Popular all time: Top ideas = Bitcoin November 2017 to mid-2018 (not a bubble) All time top idea noncrypto views: EURUSD 10935 views. 31th top idea for Bitcoin at the bottom of page 2: 75140 views (not a bubble) BITCOIN BITCOIN BITCOIN BITCOIN AAA MAKE IT STOP. All time top idea for Bitcoin number of views: You don't even want to know. Of the 2 first pages (top 37 ideas): Number of ideas that are not Bitcoin ==> 6/37 Number of ideas that are not Crypto ==> 2/37 EURUSD + Gold TWO. And one of them just got alot of likes but not that many views. T.W.O. Out of sqkn,fkqsin,f 37. 2 2 2 2 2 2. NOT A BUBBLE! Clear proof this is the revolution right. It is only the beginning? The whole planet is looking at crypto. Number of people interested only in crypto / number of (real?) traders (using approximate number of views) = 100.000 * 37 / 80.000 = 46 to 1. Oh ye that does not look at all like a bubble. Hordes of cryptoer outnumbering traders that do not care what chart they trade as long as it moves 46 to 1. Keep in mind crypto is sideways 90% of the time. Seems legit. ------------------ Ok so for finding out the used timeframe I will have to filter... I am not trying to figure what novices and noob authors with troll ideas that get hundred of thousands of views use for Bitcoin. Forex filter let's go. So this will just shows what the POPULAR authors use. Not your common folk eager to give me his money :D Top 10 pages of most popular all time ideas for FX. 18/ page. 180 total. 60 ==> 52. 29% 240 ==> 80. 45% D1 ==> 41. 23% Covers 96%. 15 min charts rarely make it to most popular all time obviously. ------------------ Newest currencies only (28 09): top 20 pages. 360 ideas. 60 ==> 107. 29.5% 240 ==> 132. 36.5% D1 ==> 64. 18% Covers 84% ------------------ Newest currencies pages 21 to 40. 360 ideas. 60 ==> 100. 27.5% 240 ==> 129. 36% D1 ==> 79. 22% Covers 85.5% ------------------ We pretty consistent. Going to make these stats again next week. So was I right about these TimeFrames? Yes. Yes I was :D So it all makes sense. The Timeframes coving 85% are the ones giving all the right signals, while other TF just give false signals all the time! Conclusion: do NOT go against the herd. The more people look at something, the stronger it will be. Do not try looking for hidden secrets (well... not by themselves). Do not try to fight the capital (or magical :p) markets. Go for the obvious supports, trendlines, and oscillators every one is looking at, and on the popular timeframes. Love the market, respect it, and the market will love you back ;)
Education
by MrRenev
2
Definition trend and change of trend ( Trend reversal)Definition trend and change of trend ( Trend reversal) Downtrend - Definition A downtrend comprises a repeating sequence of: 1) A downward extension 2) A swing low 3) An upward pullback 4) A swing high A downtrend ends when price breaks the swing high which leads to the lowest swing low of the trend Uptrend - Definition An uptrend comprises a repeating sequence of: 1) An upward extension 2) A swing high 3) A downward pullback 4) A swing low An uptrend ends when price breaks the swing low which leads to the highest swing high of the trend Please support the setup with your likes, comments and by following on TradingView. Thanks
Education
by DatTong
5
Definition trend and change of trend ( Trend reversal) !Definition trend and change of trend ( Trend reversal) Downtrend - Definition A downtrend comprises a repeating sequence of: 1) A downward extension 2) A swing low 3) An upward pullback 4) A swing high A downtrend ends when price breaks the swing high which leads to the lowest swing low of the trend Uptrend - Definition An uptrend comprises a repeating sequence of: 1) An upward extension 2) A swing high 3) A downward pullback 4) A swing low An uptrend ends when price breaks the swing low which leads to the highest swing high of the trend Please support the setup with your likes, comments and by following on TradingView. Thanks
Education
by DatTong
21
Boomerang EffectBased on the market behaviour that:- "prices tend to return" "Same Seiden's Supply and Demand concept", "Banks always split their orders hence price tend to go back so banks can put their orders again" hence the concept "Boomerang Effect". Some traders mark big candles as a "leading indicator" that price tends to return to that price, think of a magnetic effect. I personally use a candle that closes above/below the Bollinger Bands (20, std dev 2.0). When a candle closes above/below, I mark that specific candle's Open Price (almost copying the Sam Seiden's method marking the Supply/Demand level). The chart above is just an example. If you just scan around the charts to the major pairs, it does occur so many times (the boomerang effect). Does it happen 100% of the time? Of course not! Reason? Banks never split their orders all the time. The price fluctuates because it is moved by people, it is real, it is a living thing the market. There are times when they just do not want to buy again at the same price especially if it is deemed too expensive. Tell me what you think? What kind of strategy you can incoporate this.
Education
by sufiansaid
2
What makes a good breakout trade? I have found out that the best breakout trades occur when a trader does the following things: 1. Finds an area of consolidation under and area of significant support if you are selling and or above resistance if you are buying. 2. Split your position sizing into 3rds so you would be able to enter at least three times because there is a very big chance for false breakouts. For example, lets say you see a breakout trade oppotunity and would like to trade a micro lot at .01 lot with 25 pips. Instead of placing the whole trade as a .01 lot, take it and divide it by three so you would be able to trade .003 lot at 25 pip stop loss and still risk the same amount as the .01 lot. 3. Time your trades!! I only place breakout trades when the market closes (its possible to do so when you have Oanda) because that is where I notice breakouts are more powerful and less choppy. OANDA:EURUSD
Education
by ElieTheForexTraitor
Daily Range - EURUSD exampleSome of the typical occurances in the day week in week out. Here's what needs to be taken note : 1. Price hit the range has high probability for the price to reverse or move sideways (especially after London closes) 2. If price hit the range, sometimes it is followed by a "final" push (breaking the range) before a reversal happens. Some like to call it Market Maker manipulating the market or stoploss hunt or the usual "fake breakout" 3. If price exceeds the range by significant amount, most likely the following day its gonna be a quiet market (paying the market in advance). 4. Price exceeding the range more often than not a result of price not hitting the range by significant amount in the last 2-3 days (paying back the market) This is NOT a trading strategy, just another analysis tool like you would in analysing Support and Resistance or Supply and Demand. If you like the writeup, give me a follow, find me at youtube 'Sufian FX Trading", reach me at twitter sufian_fx for discussion or questions. Thanks
Education
by sufiansaid
How to Analyse Chart Patterns (Tutorial 1) - Forex - CryptoHere are 2 very common example of how to analyse the graphs and predict the future movements of the price. Many times the big moves happen thanks to new, but no matter what they respect the graphs. Second graph is very interesting as you will be able to find it in both BTCUSD and EURUSD, signalling that the pairs are analysed and traded by the same people. These patterns apply to FX, Crypto, Stocks and Indices. Message me if you have any ideas that you might be interested to discuss or for other advices. _____________________ A product of T O T O Capital
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by TotoParasca
1
Important Candlestick Pattern Definitions!Hello followers and other TradingView users! In this topic, I would like to describe some candlestick pattern to find confirmation on the strong price levels! "Engulfing" The Engulfing pattern is a two-candle reversal pattern. A reversal pattern that can be bearish or bullish, depending upon whether it appears at the end of an uptrend (bearish engulfing pattern) or a downtrend (bullish engulfing pattern). The first day is characterized by a small body, followed by a day whose body completely engulfs the previous day's body and closes in the opposite direction of the trend. "Railroad Tracks" A bearish railway track pattern has the first candlestick bullish and the second candlestick bearish. That fact that there’s a sudden change from bullish to bearish candlestick should be a good indication that there might be a bearish trend forming. If you see it on the levels of resistance or downward trendlines the more powerful it is! "Morning Star" The morning star is a bullish, bottom reversal pattern. It warns of weakness in a downtrend that could potentially lead to a trend reversal. The morning star consists of three candlesticks with the middle candlestick forming a star. The first candlestick in the morning star pattern must be a red candlestick with a relatively large real body. The second candlestick is the star, which has a short real body that is separated from the real body of the first candlestick. The star does not need to form below the low of the first candlestick and can exist within the lower shadow of that candlestick. The star is the first indication of weakness as it indicates that the sellers were not able to drive the price close much lower than the close of the previous period. This weakness is confirmed by the third candlestick, which must be green in colour and must close 50% above from the body of the first candlestick. "Evening Star" The Evening Star is a bearish, top trend reversal pattern that warns of a potential reversal of an uptrend. It is the opposite of the Morning Star and, like the morning star, consists of three candlesticks, with the middle candlestick being a star. The first candlestick in the evening star must be green in colour and must have a relatively large real body. The second candlestick is the star, which is a candlestick with a short real body that does not touch the real body of the preceding candlestick. The star can also form within the upper shadow of the first candlestick. The star is the first indication of weakness as it indicates that the buyers were unable to push the price up to close much higher than the close of the previous period. This weakness is confirmed by the candlestick that follows the star. This candlestick must be a red candlestick and must close 50% above from the body of the first candlestick. "Hammer" The Hammer is a bullish reversal pattern, which signals that an asset is nearing a bottom in a downtrend. The body of the candle is short with a longer lower shadow (wick) which is a sign of sellers driving prices lower during the trading session, only to be followed by strong buying pressure to end the session on a higher close. "Shooting Star" A shooting star is a bearish candle with a long upper shadow, little or no lower shadow and a small real body near the day's low. It comes after an uptrend. For a candlestick to be considered a shooting star, the formation must be on an upward or bullish trend, and the distance between the highest price for the day and the opening price must be more than twice as large as the shooting star's body. The distance between the lowest price for the day and the closing price must be very small or nonexistent.
Education
by VaidoVeek
16
When to add to a trading set-up/plan and when to leave it alone.It can be a very daunting task to create a trading plan/strategy that fits you without conflict. There are a lot of obstacles that inhibit the average trader from leaving a profitable trading plan or strategy as it is. Even I struggle with this which is why I have decided to publish this article. After much reflection, I have come with a few metrics you can use to determine if you should change your trading plan or not. Mental Capacity Mental Capacity, to me, is perhaps the most important aspects of trading. It easily differentiates traders that are absolutely determined to become successful and traders that are bound to become scam traders and losers (no pun intended). Mental capacity resonates itself in a traders ability to deal with traumatic trading experienced such as drawdowns and losing trades. A lot of traders don’t understand that trading is a game of probability so you have to make a lot of money when you’re right and lose a little when you’re wrong. If you make 4X the money you lose, you’ll have to lose more than 80% of the time to not be profitable. Understanding and having mental capacity allows a trader the ability to ignore irrational phobia of thinking that their strategy is not working. If your trading plan/strategy fits you mentally then you should have the mental capacity to accept all the things that can happen to you trading wise. If not, then it’s time for you to change it. Trading is a mental game, always. Objective As much as I love the mental side of trading, I do have to admit that objectives are very important in trading as well. If you’re trading a strategy that is not fulfilling your objective (based on reasonable probabilities) then it’s time to switch components of your strategy. I hate to admit this as I am a big believer in having a “Mind like water.” When it comes to trading but if you have an ever burning passionate desire to make 4X what you risk and also to follow the trend then it’s not recommended to deny yourself of this desire as it will one day influence you to give in and break your trading plan. The solution to this, in my opinion, is to take your objective and create your plan/ strategy around it. For example, if I have a goal of making at least 100 pips per 25 pips that I risk then maybe I should trade on a higher time frame while using psychological support and resistance levels. The moral of this part of the article is to exemplify the fact that any undesired occurrence a traders mental capacity can’t handle can easily be resolved by having an objective ( not having a 30% DD) and a solution (maybe I should hedge my trades or buy options) that can help you acquire that objective. The solution in return will let you know that it’s time for you to change your strategy, but if it doesn’t resolve the objective then keep it as is. Compatibility I’m going to try to keep this part simple mostly because it’s somewhat related to the objective side of this article but at the same time is a very important part to keeping and tossing your trading plan. No matter how much money you are making in trading, if you aren’t compatible with your trading plan then it will all be in vain. It isn’t logical for a trader who loves waiting to be a scalper and vice versa because when this happens it makes the trader feel that they have to change instead of the trading strategy. It has to be the other way around! Trust me, I learned this the hard way because I always got jealous of high leveraged scalpers making 1k days while I was making 2% per month if I got lucky. When I tried copying them it forced me to change into timeframes/trading strategies that I was not compatible with. My advice to any trader struggling with this is to love yourself and you’re trading because it’s your decisions and perspective that determine profitability. OANDA:EURUSD
Education
by ElieTheForexTraitor