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Decoding the NFP Report: Trading Strategies.In the dynamic world of forex trading, strategies that cater to the ever-changing market conditions are invaluable. While fundamental analysis is widely embraced in stock trading, its effectiveness in the forex market is often questioned. Unlike the stock market, where financial statements can significantly impact individual stocks, the forex market is influenced by a myriad of factors, including central bank policies and political leadership. In this article, we explore the limitations of fundamental analysis in the forex market and delve into an intriguing momentum trading strategy centered around a key macroeconomic indicator—the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). This strategy harnesses the unpredictable yet powerful market reactions triggered by the release of NFP data, offering traders a unique opportunity to capitalize on momentum. Fundamental Analysis in Forex: Fundamental analysis, a staple in stock trading, faces challenges in the forex market due to its limited impact on currency exchange rates. Forex stability relies not only on economic indicators but also on the nuanced decisions of central banks and political leadership. Despite these challenges, successful forex trading doesn't necessitate rigid adherence to a specific scenario. Traders can leverage price momentum and increased liquidity to execute effective impulse trading strategies. Non-Farm Payrolls Trading Strategy: The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) trading strategy capitalizes on the release of crucial U.S. economic data—the Non-Farm Payrolls report. This multicurrency strategy is applicable to all currency pairs involving the U.S. dollar, allowing traders to explore numerous assets simultaneously. The primary objective of this strategy is to capture price momentum, making it adaptable to various time frames. Non-Farm Payrolls: Predictable Unpredictability: The NFP report, published every first Friday of the month, serves as a linchpin for speculative traders. It provides insights into the strength and growth of the U.S. economy, consequently influencing the value of the U.S. dollar. The report focuses on the non-agricultural sector, which contributes significantly to the nation's GDP. The sheer importance of the NFP report lies in its ability to reflect the health of the U.S. economy. The release of this data sparks maximum market volatility, with prices witnessing rapid fluctuations, often ranging from 100-200 points in a short period. However, interpreting the aftermath of the news poses a unique challenge due to the simultaneous release of unemployment statistics, which can sometimes contradict each other. Despite the inherent unpredictability, the NFP trading strategy capitalizes on the strong price spikes triggered by the news release. While predicting post-news price behavior may be challenging, the strategy offers a systematic approach to navigate and profit from the volatile market conditions that follow the NFP announcement. Rules of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Trading Strategy: Stay Informed with an Economic Calendar: Use a reliable economic calendar to stay informed about upcoming NFP releases. The economic calendar will help you track the scheduled date and time of the NFP report. Check for News Release Postponements: Understand that postponements of data releases are common in economic calendars. Monitor the calendar regularly to stay updated on any changes to the scheduled release time of the NFP report. Utilize a Trusted Economic Calendar: Choose a reputable economic calendar platform to ensure accurate and timely information. The provided link www.tradingview.com can be a valuable resource for tracking economic events. Prepare for High Volatility: Recognize that the release of the NFP report triggers significant market volatility. Prepare for rapid price movements and be cautious about entering trades during the initial moments following the release. Focus on the Non-Agricultural Sector Employment Data: Prioritize the non-agricultural sector employment data within the NFP report. This indicator is crucial for gauging the strength of the U.S. economy and can have a substantial impact on currency pairs involving the U.S. dollar. Monitor Unemployment Statistics: Simultaneously track unemployment statistics released alongside the NFP report. While the primary focus is on non-agricultural employment, an understanding of unemployment trends can provide additional context for market reactions. Be Cautious of Contradictory Data: Acknowledge that data within the NFP report, especially non-agricultural employment and unemployment figures, may occasionally present contradictory signals. Exercise caution during such instances, as market predictability diminishes. Wait for Initial Volatility to Subside: Post NFP release, wait for the initial surge in volatility to subside before considering trade entries. Initial reactions can be impulsive, and waiting allows for a more informed decision-making process. Consider Multiple Currency Pairs: Since the NFP report influences the U.S. dollar, the strategy can be applied to various currency pairs involving the dollar. Explore multiple pairs simultaneously to identify the most favorable trading opportunities. Implement Risk Management: Prioritize risk management strategies to protect your trading capital. Set stop-loss orders and determine the appropriate position size based on your risk tolerance and account size. Practice on Demo Accounts: Before implementing the NFP trading strategy in live markets, practice on demo accounts to familiarize yourself with the dynamics of the strategy and refine your execution. Continuous Learning and Adaptation: Stay informed about changes in market conditions and continuously adapt your strategy. The forex market evolves, and traders need to adjust their approaches based on ongoing developments. By adhering to these rules, traders can enhance their effectiveness when employing the Non-Farm Payrolls trading strategy and navigate the unique challenges posed by this high-impact economic event. Traders often seek strategies to capitalize on this volatility, and one popular approach is the Pending Orders strategy. In this article, we'll explore the intricacies of the Pending Orders strategy , shedding light on its advanced nature and its application by both novice and experienced traders. 1 ) Pending Orders Strategy: Set Buy Stop and Sell Stop Orders: Minutes before the NFP publication, set two pending orders: Buy Stop and Sell Stop. These orders are strategically placed 25-30 points away from the current price to avoid simultaneous triggering due to heightened volatility. Manage Triggered Orders: When the price reacts to the news release, triggering one of the pending orders, promptly delete the other as a non-operational scenario. This prevents both orders from activating simultaneously. As observed in this image, during the latest NFP event on Friday, December 8, 2023, the price exhibited a robust bearish impulse immediately after the report release at 5:30 pm. This triggered our sell stop pending order, shifting our trade into a profitable position. Following the bearish movement, the strategy aims to close the buy stop position (the opposite direction). At this juncture, traders should take proactive measures to manage the open position. Stop Loss Considerations: Place a Stop Loss in the opposite order or opt not to set it at all, provided the second pending order remains intact to limit potential losses. This ensures that the remaining order acts as a safeguard against adverse market movements. Trailing Stop for Profit Maximization: Implement a Trailing Stop to secure profits. Continuously adjust the Trailing Stop as the price advances, allowing you to capitalize on the maximum price momentum. This dynamic approach helps lock in gains while navigating the evolving market conditions. As depicted in the image, the price, after experiencing a bearish movement, rebounds upward. What could be the reason behind this? The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report assesses the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment in the previous month. For this specific event, the forecasted unemployment rate was 3.9%. However, the actual percentage revealed in the report was 3.7%, indicating a lower number of individuals unemployed and actively seeking employment in the preceding month. This positive deviation from the forecast serves as a favorable signal for the USD, prompting an upward movement in its value following the event. In currency markets, an 'actual' percentage lower than the 'forecast' is generally considered beneficial for the respective currency. By the way, Short-term trades had the opportunity to secure a few pips in gains after the activation of the Sell Stop order. Strategy N.2 Meanwhile, in this other image, I have marked a vertical line at the recent NFP event. Additionally, I've incorporated a 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) to illustrate the short-term trend. After the release of this significant economic news, you can observe an increase in volatility. This could serve as a component of a monthly strategy where the release of such news acts as a trigger. This second scenario or strategy, especially for beginners, is considered much safer. By analyzing the NFP report results, understanding economic dynamics, and gaining insights into the potential continuation of the trend or a possible pause for a reversal, traders can make informed decisions. In conclusion, it's essential to backtest the presented strategies and conduct a forward backtest in a demo account. Your thorough understanding and application of these strategies are crucial. Thank you for taking the time to read my article.
Education
by FOREXN1
3
Understanding Euro Zone Economic NewsEuro Zone Economic News Explained: Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing: The Purchasing Managers Manufacturing report is a survey of manufacturing providers in the Eurozone (EZ) and focuses in on issues such as costs and demand. Essentially, a strong PMI, in which costs are low and demand is improving is bullish for the Euro, whereas a survey that results in increasing costs and decreasing demand implicates speculation against the Euro. Manufacturing is a significant component of the EZ economy, and thus a survey that indicates optimism or pessimism about the sector can really get the markets moving, the Euro in particular. A reading of 50 is a critical measure in the PMI index with a number below 50 indicating contraction and a number above 50 indicating expansionary conditions. Taking a strong position based solely on the PMI Manufacturing Survey though could prove to be regretful. Purchasing Managers Index Services: The Purchasing Managers Services report is a survey of service providers in the EZ and focuses in on issues such as costs and demand. Essentially, a strong PMI, in which costs are low and demand is improving is bullish for the Euro, whereas a survey that results in increasing costs and decreasing demand implicates speculation against the Euro. A reading of 50 is critical measure in the PMI index with a number below 50 indicating contraction and a number above 50 indicating expansionary conditions. The services sector is very important to the EZ and any significant gains or shortcomings could set the Euro climbing or falling. Retail Trade: Retail Trade is the measure of retail sales, and thus the willingness of the consumer to spend. An upswing in this figure could result in Euro buying whereas a shortfall could cause Euro selling. This number is very important to the trader because it correlates to consumer conditions and outlook within the EZ region. If the Retail Trade figure comes in strong it means that consumers are spending money and thus are probably well off, hinting that EZ consumer confidence and the CPI may also be strong. However, if Retail Trade figures are low, it could suggest that interest rates are too high, consumer confidence is sinking, or businesses are suffering. Clearly, a worse than expected Retail Trade figure offers more information (though ambiguity hand-in-hand) than does a strong figure because a strong figure seeks reinforcement from other indicators (such as the CPI and Consumer Confidence survey) and thus lags, whereas a less-than-expected figure immediately suggests that the EZ economy is most likely turning sour in one respect. Traders will often react immediately to this release, but much caution is exercised due to the wide array of implications this number carries with it. It is inadvisable to trade solely on this figure. German Retail Sales: German Retail Sales are very similar to the Retail Trade figure but differ in that they report an aggregate number of sales at retail outlets to provide for a better estimate of German private consumption. Like in Retail Trade, traders will often look to long the Euro should the figure be impressive, and short the European currency should it fall below expectations. Much like Retail Trade, traders will use the Retail Sales figure to better understand the direction of the economy in terms of other key economic releases. One of the few advantages the German Retail Sales has over Retail Trade is the time of release. Because the German figure is reported before the EZ number, traders can “jump the gun” should they wish, though acting in such a manner is not usually advisable in the Forex market. Eurozone Gross Domestic Product: The general rule of thumb when using GDP as a fundamental signal to trade is that an improved number means Euro positive whereas a lesser or unchanged figure translates into Euro stagnancy or bearishness. The Eurozone Gross Domestic Product is a measure of the progress of the Eurozone economy as a whole. The figure is very important to traders because it gauges the level of performance with which the Europeans are proceeding as well as harbingers and undermines the set of economic data that is expected to be reported from the region during a certain time period. Generally, the disclosure of a number that’s either expected or ahead of forecasts sets off bullish signals for the Euro; a number that falls below predictions invokes the Euro bears. GDP data for Germany, France, Italy, and the collective Eurozone region tend to be most closely followed. Current Account: The Current Account Deficit is probably the most comprehensive measure of international transactions for Europe as it is the measure of net exports, (total exports minus total imports). If the figure falls below expectations, slight movements against the Euro should be expected. But it is also important to keep in mind that a number that outperforms or either falls short of expectations is not necessarily going to get the traders to act hastily. The release of this number is monthly and tends to be in accord with the Trade Balance numbers that are generally reported a day or two in advance of the Current Account figure. The Current Account Deficit is usually interpreted in one way; a large negative number is damaging to the European currency. This is because the Current Account is a reflection of the net exports, and if it is negative, it shows that the Eurozone is importing more than it is exporting; a bad sign for industries at home and means that more Euros are going out of than coming into the region. However, the negativity of the number is not what traders pay attention to, but rather the change in it; the marginal change in the Current Account. The logic is very similar to that behind the GDP in that if a number comes in below expectations, it could hurt the Euro, whereas if it out performs forecasts, it could prove bullish for the European currency (despite its negativity). However, this number cannot be solely “judged by its cover” because the number says a lot more than meets the eye. For instance, a more negative figure does indeed signal a decrease in net exports, but at the same time could also serve to patron other economic releases, such as consumer spending. If the Europeans are spending a lot of money, and that money is leading them to buy things from abroad as their fiscal conditions are allowing them to do so, then a decrease in net exports doesn’t seem so “damaging” to the Eurozone economy; it could simply mean people are buying things exotic to them because they are better off. Generally though, the trend in industrialized western nations (Eurozone included) has been that a more negative Current Account is damaging to industries at home. So if the figure falls below expectations, at least slight movements against the Euro should be expected. Unemployment Data: Unemployment is a very significant indicator for Eurozone performance. It is reported in the beginning of every month and measures the percentage of the workforce that is currently out of a job but is actively seeking to be employed. Generally, traders understand slight improvements in the unemployment figure (as monthly figures generally vacillate by tenths of percentages) to be positive for the Eurozone economy and will buy Euros, whereas a no-change or increase in the unemployment numbers could lead to Euro stagnancy or dumping across the board. The figure is important because it signals how hard the Eurozone is actually working and helps to foreshadow consumer spending. High unemployment generally leads to lower consumer spending which can be bearish for the Eurozone economy as well as the Euro. The flip scenario is also true, weak Eurozone employment is bearish for the economy as well as the Euro. Generally speaking, unemployment raises concerns about the performance of firms, questioning whether businesses are either not hiring because they do not need more help, or are not hiring because they cannot afford to do so. If the latter is the case, then it could prove even more bearish for the Euro as it could be forecasting sour economic data regarding the productivity of businesses. German Unemployment: The German Unemployment figure is expressed in thousands and measures the change in unemployment in Germany; a positive figure says that more people are unemployed, thus leading to Euro selling, whereas a negative figure is indicative of decreasing unemployment and thus leads to Euro buying. Germany is important because it is the Eurozone’s largest economy. Any big or unexpected movements in this country have significant consequences for the Euro. This figure usually coincides with the Unemployment rate, but offers “greater detail” as it reports actual numbers, so that traders may have substance to trade off of if the rate itself remains unchanged. Consumer Price Index: The Consumer Price Index measures the change in price for a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. The higher the CPI, the more positive it is for the Euro, whereas the opposite is also true. The ECB has a 2% inflation target, so whenever consumer prices grow by more than 2%, the ECB becomes concerned and contemplates the need for rate hikes. If consumer prices grow by much less than 2%, the central bank has more flexibility to adjust monetary policy and interest rates. If the CPI has substantial gains, then the ECB would have the incentive to raise interest rates to keep inflation in check, thereby benefiting the Euro. However, if the CPI remains idle, or prices decrease, then even a rate cut is possible. CPI itself though consists of a few major components: one that includes energy prices, and one that includes food prices. These two constituents are very volatile and thus tend to sometimes “exaggerate” the CPI. Though they are undoubtedly considered when considering inflationary concerns, many times traders will also focus in on the “core CPI” to see how the change in prices in other sectors measured up to the changes in these two key areas. Either way, a sharp increase would generally prompt Euro buying, and a decrease would call for Euro dumping. German ZEW Survey: The German ZEW economic survey reflects the difference between the number of economic analysts that are optimistic and the number of economic analysts who are pessimistic about the German economy for the subsequent six months. Obviously, a positive figure bodes well for the Euro, while a negative number foreshadows Euro selling. The ZEW survey is important because firstly, it gauges the economic productivity of Germany, the Euro-Zone’s largest economy. Secondly, it forecasts the string of economic releases concerned with the different sectors of the economy. For instance, something like Factory Orders, Industrial Production, or even Retail Sales could be implicated (or at least their negative or positive changes) in the ZEW survey. Therefore, the survey is one of the key economic indicators that move the Euro during its time of release; the sentiment that results usually fuels the Euro strongly in one direction (at least in the short-term intra-day period). German IFO Survey: The Germany IFO economic survey is much like the ZEW economic survey in that it measures the sentiment, the confidence, in the German economy, but differs in that it includes the market-moving words of business executives. Usually, an improvement in the figure leads to Euro bullishness whereas a decrease or an unchanged number leads to either Euro stalemating or dumping. The IFO survey usually follows the ZEW and reflects sentiment along the same lines. However, should there exist a discrepancy between the ZEW and the IFO, traders tend to give the ZEW a bit more favoritism because it lacks the bias of business executives. Trading on either the ZEW or IFO survey isn’t usually very lucrative, unless both of these numbers are in line with each other and reinforce other key fundamental indicators as well. Industrial Production: The Industrial Production figure is a measure of the total industrial output of them Euro-Zone either on a monthly or yearly basis. The number is very significant as an improvement in the figure could lead the Euro to make significant gains whereas a decline or stagnant number could lead to weakness in the European currency. The reason Industrial Production is important is because it is a confirmation of its type of preceding economic releases (PPI, CPI, Retail Sales, etc.); the only key data following the IP figure being the Eurozone CPI estimate. This is why many times, by the time the Industrial Production data is due for release, traders will argue that the market has already “priced in” industrial productivity in the previous economic releases. Therefore, though large gains or losses in this figure could spark some immediate movement in the market, the market has more or less, factored in the expected Industrial Production data. German Industrial Production: German Industrial Production is a composite index of German Industrial Output that accounts for about 40% of GDP. This figure is very important because it measures the level of German Industrial Production; an improvement usually signals a “buy” in the Euro, whereas a decline in the figure constitutes a “sell” to many traders. The reason this particular IP report is more important is because not only does it measure the industrial output of Germany, the EZ’s largest economy, but also because of the fact that though it comes out late in the month, it is one of the first IP reports, and thus serves as a harbinger to the EZ IP report; if Germany saw decline, then the EZ IP report probably won’t be too bright, at least from the perspective of the trader. In a sense, the EZ IP continues to get priced in before its release. The German release has four significant components: manufacturing, which constitutes 82% of the figure, construction, which accounts for 9.5%, energy that has a 5.9% share, and mining which has the smallest share at 2.7%. Though all four components are important for Germany, movement in its largest constituent, manufacturing, usually carries the weight of the figure and has the attention of traders. German Factory Orders: German Factory Orders is an index of the volume of orders for manufactured products in Germany. This is a key figure for many traders, as an improvement in the number signals buying of the Euro, while a shortcoming signals a sell-off. The reason this reading is important is because Factory Orders not only reflect the strength of businesses but also help forecast other key economic releases such as retail sales. If orders are high, then businesses need more inventory, meaning that consumers are probably purchasing more. Traders key in on this figure, especially its components, before reacting towards the Euro. The four major constituents of German Factory Orders include intermediate goods (45.6%), capital goods (35.1%), consumer durables (11.8%), and consumer non-durables (7.4%). All four are very significant, but for different reasons. Traders will take the first two figures, the intermediate goods and capital goods, as an understanding of the strength of businesses within Germany. If there is an increase in these categories, then subsequent economic releases such as the PMI could also look very bright. The second two say much about consumer confidence and retail sales; if these two sectors are outperforming expectations, then the Euro could see significant gains. However, traders are usually wary when interpreting the German factory orders, because given some economic scenarios, gains in some sectors may very well offset losses in others whereas during certain time periods a different emphasis may be given to the different components. Therefore prudent traders will usually first consider the weight of each component before the release comes out and then act accordingly. Eurozone Labor Costs: The Eurozone Labor Costs (inclusive of both direct and indirect) figure reports the expenditures endured by employers in the EZ region in order to employ workers. Traders will generally understand higher costs to be negative for the EZ and consequently short the Euro, whereas decreasing costs may result in buying the Euro. However, it is advisable to understand the complexities involved in labor costs. On one hand, labor costs could be interpreted as a negative for businesses, but on the other hand they could be viewed as a positive stimulus for the economy. This is because firms may simply be hiring more qualified and thus more “expensive” individuals to increase specialization. If this is the case, then individuals within the economy may be better off, signaling that optimism is rising in the EZ; the Euro may see more gains. Also, there exists the possibility that while costs are rising, revenue is also rising, thus keeping total profit for businesses constant, and at the same time increasing payouts to workers, a signal that the EZ is expanding. In this case, the Euro may also be bought. However, understanding this complexity is again subject to the current economic scenario surrounding the EZ; if it is in a situation where expansionism is fertile or businesses have excess capital, then only can the increasing costs in labor justify a long position in the Euro. If that is not the case then increasing labor costs will result in Euro shorting.
Education
by Mihai_Iacob
9
EUR/USD Scalp IdeaPay close attention! This is the Last 7 Days (Trading Days ofc) ! I drew the London Session's Low , You see Every time we Hunted the London Low in NY Session and Reclaimed it, So We had a Scalp Chance to Long at London Low and Take Profit after 24 hours. the only day that we didn't reclaim London Low, it was Thursday and the price was effected by the news. Thursday's News: 🕯USD: Core PPI m/m 🕯USD: Core Retail Sales m/m 🕯USD: PPI m/m 🕯USD: Retail Sales m/m 🕯USD: Unemployment Claims Do you Think we Should keep using this Pattern for the next couple days? How we can improve our Stop and TP?
Education
by rohi99
SMI Ergodic Indicator: Interpretation in Technical AnalysisThe Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) Ergodic indicator is a lesser-known tool. Still, it’s favoured by trend traders. In this article, we will uncover the mechanics of this indicator, its unique formula, and how traders can use it to trade trends and spot reversals. What Is the SMI Ergodic Indicator? The SMI Ergodic indicator, or Stochastic Momentum Index Ergodic, is a momentum oscillator that gauges the distance of a security's closing price relative to the range of its price movements. Unlike the traditional stochastic oscillator, which measures price velocity, the SMI provides a clearer, more precise picture of market trends by incorporating the concept of 'ergodicity'. The ergodicity concept implies that the average of a time series over time and the average over the ensemble of all possible time series are identical. It provides a clear perspective of market behaviour by removing noise, thereby enhancing a trader's ability to identify market trends. What Is the SMI Ergodic Indicator and Oscillator Formula? The SMI Ergodic consists of three distinct components, each calculated using a different formula. SMI Line This key component is calculated as follows: SMI = (PCDS / APCDS) * 100 Here, PCDS refers to Price Close Double Smoothed, and APCDS stands for Absolute Price Close Double Smoothed. Both these values are calculated based on Exponential Moving Average (EMA) periods. Histogram Oscillator Calculated as the difference between the True Strength Index (TSI) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the TSI: Histogram = TSI - (EMA * TSI) Signal Line Simply the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the TSI: Signal Line = EMA * TSI The default setting for the SMI line is typically 20 periods, while the Signal and EMA are usually set to 5. The result is an indicator similar in appearance to the MACD. Don’t worry about performing these calculations yourself. In FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform, you will find the SMI Ergodic indicator and dozens of other trading tools waiting for you. How to Use the SMI Ergodic Indicator In stocks, commodities, crypto*, and forex, the SMI Ergodic oscillator offers traders several practical applications. It's particularly useful for identifying the underlying trend in a market. An upward-trending SMI line typically signals bullish market conditions, whereas a downward-trending line suggests bearish market conditions. In addition to identifying market trends, the SMI Ergodic serves as a strong tool to spot potential entry and exit points. When the SMI line crosses above the signal line, it is generally considered a bullish signal, indicating a good entry point. On the contrary, when it crosses below the signal line, it is often seen as a bearish signal, suggesting a potential exit point or a short-selling opportunity. Beyond trend identification and spotting entry and exit points, the SMI Ergodic indicator also helps traders understand market momentum. If the SMI line is above 0, it points to positive momentum, signalling upward price movement. Conversely, if it falls below 0, it indicates negative momentum, suggesting downward price movement. Lastly, the histogram oscillator can serve as a confirmation tool. If the histogram bars are above 0 and growing in size, this confirms a strong upward momentum. Conversely, if the histogram bars are below 0 and growing in size, this confirms a strong downward momentum. The Bottom Line In summary, the SMI Ergodic offers traders a multi-dimensional view of the market. By helping to identify market trends, entry and exit points, and market momentum, it has a solid position in any trader's arsenal. Still, it may provide incorrect signals or be misunderstood due to the subjectivity of its interpretation. While it may be one of the more complex trading tools out there, don’t let that stop you. You can practise your SMI skills in our free TickTrader platform, and when you are ready, open an FXOpen account. Once you do, you’ll be able to put your SMI strategy to the test across 600+ markets and benefit from ultra-fast execution speeds and competitive trading costs. Happy trading! *At FXOpen UK and FXOpen AU, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules and Professional clients under ASIC Rules, respectively. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
3
What Is The Money Flow Index (MFI) in Trading?The Money Flow Index (MFI) is an indicator that measures the flow of money into and out of a particular financial asset and provides insights into the strength and direction of price trends. It’s an oscillator, like the RSI, Stochastic, and Awesome Oscillator. Moreover, it provides similar signals to the Stochastic. Is it worth learning about? Definitely, and in this FXOpen article, we will explain why. What Is the Money Flow Index? Developed by Gene Quong and Avrum Soudack, the MFI combines price and volume data to gauge the buying and selling pressure in the market. What is the Money Flow Index definition? The MFI is categorised as an oscillator, meaning that it fluctuates between 0 and 100, indicating overbought and oversold conditions. Traders often use it to identify potential reversal points and generate buy or sell signals. The Money Flow Index is used in crypto*, forex, and commodity markets. You can use it to analyse stock money flow data. Money Flow Index Formula To calculate the Money Flow Index, several steps are involved. Let's break down the formula: Typical Price (TP): This is the average of the high, low, and closing prices for a specific period. Money Flow (MF): This step calculates the amount of money flowing into or out of the asset. Positive Money Flow (PMF): This stands for the money flow on days when the current typical price is higher than the previous one. Negative Money Flow (NMF): This stands for the money flow on days when the current typical price is lower than the previous one. Money Ratio (MR): This measures the ratio between positive and negative money flows. Money Flow Index: Finally, the MFI is calculated by normalising the money ratio and converting it into a value between 0 and 100. TP = (High + Low + Close) / 3 MF = TP * Volume PMF = Sum of MF for all up days in the specified period NMF = Sum of MF for all down days in the specified period MR = PMF / NMF Money Flow Index = 100 - (100 / (1 + Money Ratio)) The MFI is typically calculated over a period of 14 days, but this setting can be adjusted to suit different trading strategies and timeframes. The common rule is that a shorter period suits strategies where a trader opens trades very often as the oscillator generates signals frequently, while a longer period is used by traders who aim for longer-term trades as the oscillator generates signals rarely, but they are considered more reliable. How to Use the MFI in Trading By providing insights into buying and selling pressure, the MFI helps traders identify overbought and oversold conditions, divergences, and failure swings, which can be used to generate potential trading signals. Overbought/Oversold Conditions As the MFI is an oscillator that fluctuates within a specific range, it’s quite easy to identify overbought/oversold market conditions using it. When the MFI rises above 80, it indicates an overbought condition, suggesting that the asset may be due for a price correction or a downward trend. An overbought condition implies excessive buying pressure, and a reversal in price might be imminent. Conversely, when the MFI drops below 20, it signifies an oversold condition, indicating excessive selling pressure and a potential upward price reversal. It's important to note that overbought or oversold conditions alone do not guarantee an immediate change in price direction. Traders wait for the oscillator to exit the overbought/oversold zone before they open a trade. When the MFI rises above 20, it’s usually considered a “buy” signal, while a fall below the 80 level may be considered a “sell” signal. In the Money Flow Index chart above, the indicator left the overbought area (1) before a solid downtrend started. A trader could use the MFI signal to enter a short trade; however, the index entered the oversold area (2), which could be considered a sign of a trend reversal, but the reversal didn’t happen, and the price continued moving down. Note: Oscillators can test overbought/oversold areas several times before an actual reversal occurs. Moreover, the indicator may provide incorrect signals in strong trends. Therefore, traders never use the indicator without a confirmation received from other technical analysis tools or fundamental data. Divergences MFI divergence occurs when the price and the MFI move in opposite directions. This can be bullish or bearish, providing valuable insights into potential trend reversals. Bullish divergence happens when the price forms lower lows while the MFI forms higher lows. This suggests that despite the price declining, buying pressure is increasing, indicating a possible upward movement. Conversely, a bearish divergence occurs when the price forms higher highs while the MFI forms lower highs, indicating a potential downward movement. In the chart above, the price formed a bearish divergence with the Money Flow Index, and the price declined significantly. Failure Swings Failure swings, also known as "bullish failure swings" or "bearish failure swings," are powerful signals generated by the Money Flow Index. A failure swing occurs when the MFI reaches overbought or oversold levels and then fails to surpass its previous peak or trough. This failure to exceed previous levels suggests a weakening of the prevailing trend and the possibility of a reversal. In a bullish failure swing, the MFI drops below the oversold level, rallies, manages to stick above the oversold area, although the price sets a new low, and then makes a new high. This indicates that despite the initial selling pressure, buyers are stepping in, creating a potential buying opportunity. Conversely, in a bearish failure swing, the MFI rises above the overbought level, declines, manages to stick below the 80 level although the price makes a new high, and then makes a new low. This shows that despite the initial buying pressure, sellers are entering the market, signalling a potential selling opportunity. In the chart above, the price was moving in a strong downward trend, but the MFI didn’t enter the oversold area after leaving it at the end of October. Once the indicator broke its previous high (1), a trend reversal was confirmed. Failure swings aren’t a common signal that traders use when trading with the Money Flow Index. However, they can be an additional tool to confirm price movements. To practise and develop your own Money Flow Index strategy, you can use the free TickTrader platform that implements over 600 trading instruments that you can trade with FXOpen. Final Thoughts The Money Flow Index is an effective indicator. Its signals are straightforward, and it has only one parameter, a period; therefore, even a trader with little experience will be able to customise it so it empowers their trading strategy. Although the calculations seem complicated, the tool is built to run automatically on trading platforms. Still, traders need to remember that the Money Flow Index should be used as part of a comprehensive trading plan and combined with proper risk management techniques. Traders can practise using the MFI on a demo account or backtest it on historical data to gain familiarity and confidence before applying it to live trading. When you feel comfortable with the indicator, you can open an FXOpen account. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice. *At FXOpen UK and FXOpen AU, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules and Professional clients under ASIC Rules, respectively. They are not available for trading by Retail clients.
Education
by FXOpen
Probability theory for trading signalsThere is a standard mathematical task. Let’s assume that six guns fired simultaneously at one target. The probability of hitting one target with one shot from one gun is 0.35 (35%); for the rest of the guns separately, the probability of hitting the target is also 0.35 (35%). We need to find the probability of at least one hit in one salvo from all guns. I believe that solution of this task can be used to find the correct moment for buy or sell signals. Let's say we have six indicators of different natures (stochastic, trend, chart pattern, volume profile, Fibonacci levels, candlestick patterns etc.) and each indicator has a relatively low win rate %, let's assume conservatively, that each indicator has 35% of win rate. If all indicators simultaneously show a buy signal, then the probability that at least one signal will be correct is calculated as follows: The probability that each signal separately is true: p1 = 35%, p2 = 35%, p3 = 35%, p4 = 35%, p5 = 35%, p6 = 35% The probability that each signal separately is false: q1 = 65%, q2 = 65%, q3 = 65%, q4 = 65%, q5 = 65%, q6 = 65% The probability that all signals will be false at the same time: P_(A) = q1 x q2 x q3 x q4 x q5 x q6 = 8% The probability that at least one signal will be true: P(A) = 1 - P_(A) = 1 – 0,08 = 0,92 (92%) So, we just confirmed obvious thing that if many indicators show the same signal simultaneously that we have higher chance to win as compared with signal of only one technical indicator. But you must be careful. - This methodology doesn’t work good in a flat market - Big players can easily steal your stop-losses because they also see these cumulative signals. - Close to 90% win-rate is not 100% win-rate, thus risk management is a must anyway - this method is quite heavy due to big volume of manual work. Important note: in order to avoid receiving too optimistic results, it’s necessary to use different types of indicators by their nature. Don’t use, for example three stochastics and five trend indicators. Correct example of indicators: 1 Fibonacci levels, 1 stochastics, 1 candlestick pattern, 1 chart pattern, 1 volume profile, 1 trend indicator. Anyway, I just made a test of this methodology for Crypto, Equity and Forex and the win-rate was about 80-90% with 80% profit after three weeks, I think that it really works.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by Trading_investing_2021
3
Ichimoku Cloud Demystified: A Comprehensive Deep DiveHello TradingView Community, it’s Ben with LeafAlgo! Today we will discuss one of my favorite indicators, the Ichimoku Cloud. The Ichimoku is a versatile trading tool that has captivated traders with its unique visual representation and powerful insights. We will dive deep into understanding the Ichimoku Cloud, explore its history, discuss its parts, highlight real-life examples, and address potential pitfalls. By the end of this article, we believe you will know how to leverage the Ichimoku Cloud effectively in your trading endeavors. Let’s dive in! Origin of The Ichimoku Cloud The Ichimoku Cloud, also known as Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, was developed by Goichi Hosoda in the late 1930s but was not published until later in the 1960s. Its name translates to "one glance equilibrium chart," reflecting its ability to provide a holistic view of market dynamics with a single glance. Over time the Ichimoku Cloud has become a popular trading tool among new and seasoned traders. Components of The Ichimoku Cloud Some traders believe the Ichimoku cloud is a complex jumble of lines with no rhyme or reason, but this is not necessarily true. The best way to understand the Ichimoku cloud is to break it down into its respective parts. Each element contributes to the overall interpretation of price action, trend direction, support and resistance levels, and potential entry and exit points. The Ichimoku Cloud has five components: Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen, Senkou Span A and B, and Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, often called the Conversion Line and Base Line, respectively, are essential in identifying trend direction and momentum. Below we can see a bullish signal happens when the Tenkan-sen crosses above the Kijun-sen. Conversely, a bearish signal occurs when the Tenkan-sen crosses below the Kijun-sen. Typical length inputs for the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are 9 and 26. The Senkou Span A and B form the cloud or "Kumo." These components serve as dynamic support and resistance levels, with Senkou Span A calculated as the average of the Conversion Line and Base Line and Senkou Span B representing the midpoint of the highest high and lowest low over a specified period, typically 52. The cloud's thickness and color provide visual cues for potential market strength and volatility. The Chikou Span, or the Lagging Span, is the current closing price plotted 26 periods back on the chart. It helps traders gauge the relationship between the current price and historical price action, providing insights into potential trend reversals or continuation. Putting the parts together gives us a complete picture of the Ichimoku Cloud. Each aspect contributes to the one-glance equilibrium theory, giving traders a more holistic view of price action. Applying the Ichimoku Cloud in Trading We now better understand all parts of the Ichimoku cloud, but that means little if we don’t understand how it can be utilized in trading. Let's explore examples that demonstrate the practical application of the Ichimoku Cloud: Example 1: Trend Following In an uptrend, we would look for the Tenkan-sen to cross above the Kijun-sen while the price remains above the cloud. When the price retraces to the cloud, a long position opportunity may arise, with the cloud acting as support. The Chikou Span should also be above the historical price action, confirming the bullish sentiment. Example 2: Trend Reversals and Breakout Opportunities A potential trend reversal or continuation can be identified when the Tenkan-sen crosses above the Kijun-sen and the price moves above the cloud. A breakout trade can initiate when the price breaks through the cloud's upper boundary, indicating a shift in momentum. For the Ichimoku cloud to give its strongest confirmation of a reversal, some traders will take a fairly conservative approach and wait for a few things to occur. Traders typically wait for a kumo twist, the Tenkan-sen/Kijun-sen cross, and the Chikou Span to break the cloud and be above the price. The reverse of these signals can be used in the same fashion for a short position. Example 3: The Kumo Twist In a trend, a Kumo Twist can signal a potential trend reversal. Look for the Senkou Span A to cross above or below the Senkou Span B within the cloud. This twist can confirm a shift in market sentiment. Traders can enter a position when the twist is confirmed, placing a stop loss above or below the cloud or the recent swing high/low. I think of the Kumo twists and subsequent clouds as a trend filter. Placing longs on the bullish side or shorts on the bearish side, however, some traders use the Ichimoku Cloud in a contrarian fashion. Contrarian trades can be profitable using this method as price tends to pull back to the clouds A or B span where support or resistance may lie. Pitfalls and Challenges: Avoiding Common Mistakes While the Ichimoku Cloud is a powerful tool, it is paramount to be aware of potential pitfalls. Here are a few challenges to navigate: False Signals and Choppy Market Conditions In ranging or volatile markets, cloud signals may generate false indications. During such periods combine the Ichimoku Cloud with other technical indicators or wait until the market picks a direction. Moving out to higher time frames can help clear the murkiness of consolidation phases and provide a clearer picture of the trend, in turn, weeding out false signals. Overcomplicating Analysis The Ichimoku Cloud provides a wealth of information, but it's crucial to maintain simplicity and focus. Avoid overcrowding the chart with an abundance of indicators, especially other overlays. It is easy to get lost in the sauce or run into redundancies with too much on the chart. Testing and Adapting Each market has its characteristics or volatility, and it's essential to backtest the Ichimoku Cloud strategy, experiment with different parameters, and adapt to market conditions over time. Many traders rely on the standard settings, but in my time developing trading algorithms, I have learned that those settings do not hold from market to market or consistently over time. It is critical to regularly revisit your settings or overall trading strategy to make sure you are drawing on the best available information the Ichimoku Cloud can give. Enhancing the Ichimoku Cloud Strategy To enhance your understanding and utilization of the Ichimoku Cloud, consider the following: Incorporating Other Technical Indicators Combining the Ichimoku Cloud with other indicators, such as oscillators, to confirm signals can be beneficial. I know I said not to over-clutter your chart with other indicators, but that is a rule of thumb more set for overlays. Timeframe Considerations Adapt the Ichimoku Cloud to different timeframes based on your trading style. Higher time frames may provide more reliable signals, while lower timeframes may offer shorter-term opportunities. I don’t believe it ever hurts to back out a few time frames to get a clear picture of market dynamics and avoid tunnel vision. Conclusion The Ichimoku Cloud is a versatile indicator, and today we scratched the surface of how it can be appropriately used. Remember, practice, patience, and continuous learning are critical for refining your skills and adapting the Ichimoku Cloud strategy to ever-evolving market conditions. If there is anything unclear or you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to comment below. Trading education is our passion, and we are happy to help. Happy trading! :)
Education
by LeafAlgo
49
Rising wedgeA rising wedge in an up trend is usually considered a reversal pattern. This pattern is at the end of a bullish wave, by creating close price tops, shows us that the supply has intensified and there is a possibility of a trend change. Of course, nothing is certain and if the buyers are more willing and strong, this pattern may be broken in the direction of the market rise. A rising wedge in the middle of a downtrend, is considered a corrective move and is known as a continuing pattern. For example, take a look at the above chart of Ethereum on the weekly time frame
Education
by Dealerify_HUNTER
To TA or not to TA: The Pros and Cons of Technical AnalysisTechnical analysis is one of the most popular trading strategies used by traders worldwide. It involves analyzing past market data, primarily price, market structure, and volume, to identify trends and forecast future price movements. While technical analysis has several benefits, it also has some drawbacks that traders must consider before incorporating it into their trading strategy. Today we will explore the benefits and drawbacks of using technical analysis in trading. Benefits of Technical Analysis: Identifying Trends: Technical analysis helps traders identify trends in the market, which is crucial for making profitable trades. There are several ways a trader can follow the trend of their desired asset using technical analysis. Be it moving averages, supertrends, or channels we really have many options. Entry and Exit Points: Technical analysis helps traders determine the best entry and exit points for their trades. There are countless strategy options to utilize when considering the sheer number of indicators that exist. In our opinion finding a system that makes sense, is robust, and simple usually proves to be the most successful when proper discipline is used. Risk Management: Proper technical analysis can help traders mitigate risk and protect their accounts. Stop losses are one method that we covered in a previous post. There are countless ways to set up stop losses using TA, but there are other techniques that can be used as well. Hedging is a risk management strategy used to offset potential losses from adverse price movements in an asset. In trading, hedging involves opening a position in the opposite direction of an existing position. This position is usually in the same or a related asset to reduce the overall risk exposure. As an example, if a trader holds a long contract in a stock, they may hedge their position by opening a short contract in the same stock or a related asset such as an ETF or index. Technical analysis can be used to identify favorable conditions for hedging between assets. Hedging can help traders manage risk and protect profits, but it can also limit potential gains. Confirmation of Fundamental Analysis: Technical analysis can confirm fundamental analysis by providing traders with an objective view of the market. For instance, if a trader believes that a company's stock is undervalued based on its financial statements, technical analysis can confirm this by showing that the stock is oversold. Drawbacks of Technical Analysis: Subjectivity: Technical analysis is subjective as different traders can interpret the same chart differently. This can lead to conflicting signals and confusion, especially for novice traders who aren’t as familiar with chart patterns. A prime example would be Bitcoin right now. Or False Signals: In technical analysis, false signals can be a significant issue in trading because they can lead to poor investment decisions and potential losses. For example, technical indicators may provide a false signal that a stock is oversold or overbought, causing a trader to make a trade that is not profitable. False signals can also occur due to market volatility or unexpected news events. To reduce the risk of false signals, traders can use a variety of technical indicators and combine them with fundamental analysis to confirm trading decisions. Additionally, risk management strategies such as stop-loss orders can help limit potential losses from false signals. Lagging Indicators: Technical analysis relies on lagging indicators, which means that traders are reacting to past price movements. This can result in missed opportunities, or poorly timed entries, especially in fast-moving markets. A very good example of a lagging indicator that is widely used is moving averages of any type. Leading Indicators: There are some indicators that classify as leading indicators, but there are dangers to them with look-ahead bias. Look-ahead bias in indicators is a common issue in technical analysis. It occurs when historical data is used to construct an indicator that would not have been available at the time of the trade. This can lead to inaccurate signals, as the indicator may appear to predict future market movements, when in fact it is simply based on hindsight. An example of this would be the Ichimoku Cloud, specifically the cloud itself. Over-use and Over-Reliance: This can mean a few things in trading. One of which is where traders will rely heavily on many indicators all at once. This can cause confusion as some indicators can have contrarian signals to one another. Traders who rely solely on technical analysis may miss out on important fundamental factors that could affect the market. It is important to look at multiple objective vantage points of your desired asset. For instance, a sudden change in interest rates or economic policies could have a significant impact on the market, which technical analysis may not account for. In cryptocurrency Conclusion: In conclusion, technical analysis has several benefits, including identifying trends, entry and exit points, risk management, and confirmation of fundamental analysis. However, it also has drawbacks, including subjectivity, false signals, leading/lagging indicators, and over-reliance. Therefore, traders must use technical analysis in conjunction with other trading strategies, such as fundamental analysis, to make informed trading decisions. Being mindful of the pitfalls of common market analysis techniques can make you a better trader over time as you grasp a more comprehensive view of the market, and in turn, make more informed decisions when trading.
Education
by LeafAlgo
What is Price Action Analysis?Price action analysis is a trading methodology that involves analyzing the price movement of a financial instrument, such as a stock, currency pair, or commodity, to make trading decisions. It relies on the observation of price charts and the interpretation of price patterns, trends, and support and resistance levels. Price action traders believe that all the necessary information about a market is reflected in its price movement, and that by focusing solely on price, they can avoid the noise and confusion caused by other indicators and trading strategies. Some common techniques used in price action analysis include chart patterns such as triangles, head and shoulders, and double tops and bottoms, trend lines, candlestick charts, and moving averages. Price action traders also pay attention to key levels of support and resistance, as these levels can indicate where buying or selling pressure may be concentrated. Overall, price action analysis is a popular approach among traders who value simplicity, clarity, and flexibility in their trading strategies. What are the types of price action analysis? There are several types of price action analysis that traders use to analyze market movements and make trading decisions. Here are some of the most common types: Candlestick chart analysis: This involves analyzing the patterns formed by candlesticks on a price chart. Candlesticks provide information on price movements, including the opening price, closing price, high price, and low price, and can help traders identify potential trends and patterns. Support and resistance analysis: This involves identifying key levels of support and resistance on a price chart, which represent areas where buyers and sellers have previously entered or exited the market. Traders can use these levels to make trading decisions, such as setting stop-loss orders or placing trades at key levels. Trendline analysis: This involves drawing trendlines on a price chart to identify trends in the market. Trendlines can help traders identify potential trading opportunities, such as buying when the price is in an uptrend or selling when the price is in a downtrend. Breakout analysis: This involves looking for patterns where the price breaks through a key level of support or resistance. Traders can use breakouts to identify potential trading opportunities and set stop-loss orders to limit their risk. Price pattern analysis: This involves analyzing patterns such as head and shoulders, double tops, and triangles, to identify potential trading opportunities. Traders can use these patterns to enter trades with a higher probability of success. These are just a few examples of the types of price action analysis that traders use. Ultimately, the key is to use a combination of different techniques to gain a more complete understanding of the market and make more informed trading decisions
Education
by PriceActionAnalysis
How FED / ECB Interest rates set trendsWatch how interest rates decisions set trends in EURUSD and Dollar Index impacting the entire forex market. I marked all the previous interest hike decisions by FED and ECB. 2023 EURUSD bullish reversal was triggerred by ECB starting to raise iterest rates (after EUR hit the alarming 1.00 level). EUR might continue bullish until next tow hikes. From what I read ECB does not plan to hike rates for the rest of the year after May meeting (rates will stay at 4), so it is likely to trigger bearish reversal from May. Likelwise, 2020 EUR bullish ride (and dollar weakness) was triggerred by FED lowering interest rates (in March 2020) after COVID hit. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. Good luck in your trading! God bless!
Education
by ICFX
The three magic weapons of successful investmentWhen it comes to investing, many individuals who are not actively investing tend to ponder over what lucrative projects are available when seeing others making profits. However, once they start investing, they all hold a belief that they will profit, which can lead to a problematic attitude when facing losses that differ from their original expectations. Investing is a business, and just like any business, there are winners and losers. Personal mindset, attitude, and perspective play a significant role in one's ability to succeed in any venture, including financial markets. In essence, those who possess these traits are more likely to emerge as winners. First and foremost, having a clear direction is fundamental. It is crucial to understand the following three phrases: 1.Your responsibility lies in your chosen direction. 2.Your experience serves as your capital. 3.Your character ultimately determines your destiny. II. The Key is in the Selection The key to successful investing lies in choosing the right person, investing in the right projects, and acquiring the right skills. Some people may claim that they do not understand the investment process, and may express concerns about potential risks and losses. However, it is important to understand that similar to managing stock portfolios, managing life involves minimizing losses and risks, while maximizing returns. Spot trading investments function in a similar manner, where risk and benefit coexist, and controlling the risk factor is critical. Investing is a process of personal growth, a way of life, a pleasurable experience, an active approach to managing life, and a positive lifestyle habit. The success of an individual's investment strategy depends on the people around them. III. Belief is the Starting Point, Learning is the Process, and Persistence is the Destination Once a decision has been made, it is important to have faith in one's ability to choose the right investments and make sound judgments. Confidence is key, as it enables one to establish goals and a clear direction. Self-assurance is essential as success begins with one's own belief in themselves. In addition to confidence, continuous learning is crucial. Growth comes from a constant willingness to learn and to embrace new ideas with an open mind. Lastly, persistence is essential for success. The path to success is never easy, and it is filled with challenges and setbacks. One must persevere and continue to push through obstacles to achieve their goals. Success comes from consistent hard work and determination. Investors who have been paying attention to the crude oil market recently have likely noticed that despite positive EIA data, prices have sharply dropped within seconds. Many investors have become confused and uncertain, and some even fear the market. In response to these situations, I would like to emphasize several principles for trading: 1.Greed: Often, it is not that a trade is not profitable, but that investors want to make even more money before exiting, which causes profitable trades to instantly become losing trades. 2.Gambling: Before important data is released, I often advise investors to close all positions and wait for the data to be released before entering again. However, many investors still try to gamble on the data and enter positions early, resulting in instant margin calls and irrecoverable losses. 3.Fear: Many investors who have suffered significant losses on other platforms express fear and hesitation to trade. However, it is important to never be afraid of the market, and to seek help from professionals to turn losses into gains. 4.Integrity: Some investors seek my help to experience "calls," and I usually provide a few free calls to help them recover losses. Honest investors who have experienced my accurate calls will promptly switch to my platform to trade and earn steady profits. However, there are also some dishonest investors who only seek short-term gains and will ignore me once they make money, only to come back when they suffer losses. I will not comment further on such investors and leave it to them to measure their own character. In this market, the most fair thing is the market itself. All investors face the same market conditions. However, faced with the same market conditions, investors will inevitably make different choices. When the market comes in waves like splashing waves, some people face the opportunities, prepare well, face them head-on, and make a profit; others are afraid and unprepared, and are caught off guard by the market. The market is fair to everyone, it just depends on how you face it. If you are the former, I can help you achieve even greater success; if you are the latter, I can lend you a helping hand.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Navigation-h
Five Demons that lead to Trading Losses The greatest adversary of a trader is not the market, nor the constantly changing market trends, but rather ourselves. Therefore, today I will share my trading experience and explain the five most difficult demons to overcome in our trading journey. 1.The first demon is greed. Greed is the biggest demon in trading. Where there is greed, there is an abyss. It can be said that 90% of psychological problems in trading stem from greed. What are the manifestations of greed? Not wanting to miss out on market movements and trying to buy at the lowest point and sell at the highest point is greed. Not wanting to miss out on any market movements of any kind is greed. Pursuing the perfect trading system is greed. Even not willing to accept losses is greed. Pursuing high-risk trading for quick profits is even more greedy. Childishly pursuing financial freedom through trading is the greediest of greed. There are too many examples like this. 2.Heart demon 2: Fear Many people have poor execution in trading, mainly due to fear. What are the manifestations of fear in trading? Being bullish on a market but not daring to open a position due to fear of loss. Even when the trading plan is clearly defined, entry and exit rules are obvious, and position sizing is appropriate, when the conditions for opening a position are met, the button for opening the position cannot be clicked and the opportunity is missed. Having the correct position and being profitable but not daring to hold the position, afraid of losing profit due to the fluctuation of the market, resulting in hasty liquidation. The inability to set a stop loss is also a manifestation of fear, afraid of not being able to recover losses. Using smaller and smaller position sizes, finally opening a position of 0.01 lots, but still feeling conflicted. 3.Heart demon 3: Short-sightedness Traders must have a perspective. I often say that we should examine trading from an aerial perspective. Trading is like a maze. Only when we stand at a high point and overlook the maze can we find the correct way out. We must not plunge into the maze. What are the manifestations of short-sightedness? When a trading system is initially profitable, you think it's great; when losses occur, you immediately want to give up or change the trading system's settings. Unbeknownst to many, profits and losses come from the same source. Trading systems are bound to have matching and non-matching market conditions. Dismissing a trading system due to short-term gains or losses is a manifestation of short-sightedness. On the other hand, a trading system making money for a period of time does not necessarily mean that the system will continue to be profitable. Profitability is only a result of matching market conditions. Overvaluing a trading system due to temporary profits is also a manifestation of short-sightedness. Therefore, many people eagerly show me their profitable trading systems of one or three months, but I maintain a conservative attitude and suggest we discuss the issue again after one year. 4.Heart Demon Four: Anger When it comes to anger, everyone can easily understand that it is a significant issue not only in trading but also in work and daily life. Under the influence of anger, a person's IQ is reduced to only 30% of its normal level. Our judgment of trading results and risk perception will be greatly biased. Specifically, anger manifests as frequent trading after losses, heavy positions, and expecting to make a profit to recover previous losses. However, the heavy position trading profits cannot be sustained, and when the market does not follow expectations, the trader may be reluctant to cut losses, resulting in margin call and a vicious cycle. 5.Heart Demon Five: Arrogance The trends we trade are the future, and humans are powerless in predicting the future. Even a successful trader may not be able to judge the direction more accurately than a primary school student based on a single chart. This is due to the randomness of market trends, which no one can change. Here's the problem: some people always spot market trends and get good returns during a certain period, which causes them to become arrogant. It is like some novice traders who, after a few short-term profits, begin to have great confidence in their trading ability. This is what we call the "beginner's luck," which is followed by losses due to luck. These are the five heart demons that lead to trading losses. Many of us have experienced these errors. If you are also troubled by these heart demons, we hope you can face your problems and slowly change.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Navigation-h
Trading EUR/USD with Moving Averages and Price ActionA simple way to trade EUR/USD is by taking advantage of its tendency to retest the 200-period moving average on the hourly chart. To do this, wait for the currency pair to move away significantly from the 200-period moving average and show signs of overbought or oversold conditions with two peaks or troughs, along with divergence. This presents an opportunity to enter a trade in the direction of the moving average. To execute this strategy, first, identify the 200-period moving average on the hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair. Next, monitor the price action to look for significant deviations from the moving average with clear signs of overbought or oversold conditions. This may include the formation of two peaks or troughs with divergence in the price action. Once you have identified these conditions, consider entering a trade in the direction of the moving average. For instance, if the price is significantly above the moving average and shows signs of overbought conditions, consider entering a short trade. On the other hand, if the price is significantly below the moving average and shows signs of oversold conditions, consider entering a long trade. In summary, this strategy involves identifying overbought or oversold conditions in the EUR/USD pair, along with divergence and two peaks or troughs, as it moves away from the 200-period moving average. This can help you identify trading opportunities in the direction of the moving average. ----------------------------------------------- Share your feedback in the comments and demonstrate your support by liking the tutorial. Please follow if you're interested in more tutorials like this. Your support is highly valued!
Education
by Candlestick_OB
2
Recap of my trade for todayGood evening and good afternoon for American traders, I shared an idea where I said to buy NATURALGAS and I want to give a quick recap in order to encourage new traders to hold their trades for long time. I have drawn on the chart all the points I added contracts after the pullback on the vwap which plays a strong support and resistance role in my trading system. After seeing the configuration I follow to close, I kept waiting for several candles and added on more contract just for fun since I sat the SL right below the last contract I opened and kept watching for a while what will happen, then I noticed low volumes and I closed at the end of the small candle. See you tomorrow in a new trade !
NEducation
by YassineAnalysis
👊 Support And Resistance Levels Explained 👊The fundamental concepts of technical analysis are support and resistance levels. Technical analysis strategies are based on psychological and mathematical patterns from previous periods. One such pattern is resistance and support levels, which determine the most likely price direction change or confirmation of trend continuation. They can be used by both new and experienced traders. In this article, we will learn what support and resistance lines are, how to draw them correctly, and how to apply this knowledge to real-world trading. Fundamental Concepts  You must first understand what support and resistance levels are before you can begin adding them to the chart. They are critical indicators of a collision between upwardly and downwardly oriented players, known as bulls and bears. Traders pushing prices up or down will eventually reach a point where the opposing group is equally opposed. Support is the price level that "defends," or prevents, the price from falling lower. Resistance is the line that prevents the price from rising and thus resists its rise. A resistance line can become a support line as a result of price fluctuations, and vice versa. Support is defined as two or more lows, and resistance is defined as two or more highs. Once the price reaches a point of extremum on the chart, you can begin outlining the line, and the second extremum allows you to completely draw the support or resistance line. Because extremes are rarely repeated, the line is roughly drawn in the middle of them if the difference between them is insignificant. If the price spread between the marked extrema is large, the price range between these points is marked for the line, and traders are guided by it when drawing lines. In a sideways trend, determining resistance and support levels is easier. With large price changes, the possibility of defining support and resistance lines incorrectly is very high. There can be both strong and weak opposition and support. The time frame and number of price touches on the line define the line's strength. The higher the time frame, the more touches there are, as well as the strength of the resistance or support line. The length of the time frame is more important than the number of touches. In general, the support and resistance lines indicate areas where the probability of a price correction increases. The Notion Of A Trend One of the indicators used to calculate support and resistance levels is trend strength. A trend is a price movement up or down over a long time period. The price of an asset can fluctuate, but if its minimums are consistently going up, the trend is upward, if the maximums are going lower, the trend is downward. On the stock market, a visually identifiable trend is used to assess long-term investments and the likelihood of success of short-term speculation. How to trade using trend? The following algorithm is used for this purpose. The trend line is determined by the price of the asset. The Ultimate Beginner’s Guide To Trend Trading How the trend line behaves when it contacts the support and resistance lines is examined. If the uptrend line breaks out a strong resistance line at the second or third try, then there is a considerable probability of further price growth. Conversely, the price of an asset is more likely to move down if it breaks out a strong support level. What Factors Affect Support and Resistance Levels You should consider psychological and fundamental factors when drawing support and resistance lines. In general, the price cannot constantly rise or fall. After breaking out at significant levels of support and resistance, the likelihood of a psychological phenomenon known as "traders' remorse" increases as many players reconsider the future trend of asset price development. This happens as a result of the following factors: Fundamental: market or security indicators do not provide a basis for further price movement; Psychological: as prices rise and fall, people begin to doubt the validity of future moves. Profit fixing: achieving certain price points gives players a reason to fix their profits by monitoring the situation's evolution. If a large enough number of traders "repent" and close their positions, the price will return to the support or resistance level, and the trend will reverse. Correct Levels of Support and Resistance Surprisingly, there is no widely held consensus on how support and resistance lines should be named, nor are there any clear, specific descriptions of the relationship between extremums and lines. Nonetheless, the majority of traders believe that resistance and support levels are horizontal lines drawn at the highest and lowest price levels. Resistance lines are drawn on the maximums of impulse movements during an uptrend, and supports are formed on the minimums of corrective movements. The next low overlaps the next maximum, converting the resistance level to a support level. On the downside, the previous high coincides with the previous low, and the support level becomes a resistance level. Some traders believe that oblique support and resistance lines drawn through highs and lows are trend lines. Support and resistance lines can also be drawn through supply-price pivot points, also known as TD-points, which are upper extrema surrounded by lower extrema. The maximum point is the one above which prices have not moved in a specific time period, and the minimum point is the one below which prices have not moved in a specific time period. Over time, each trader determines for themselves the best way to draw support and resistance lines for their specific purposes. Some traders are limited to identifying lines that are close to circular values, that is, lines that end in zero. Based on previously formed reversal levels, it is also used to determine resistance and support levels.It is expected that if the price has previously bounced from a certain level, it will do so again. In this case, the trader must carefully analyze price dynamics and draw the lines by hand. Each method can correctly determine support and resistance levels or it can lead to errors; it all depends on the trader's skills. How to Draw Levels of Support and Resistance: Consider the fundamental principles of drawing support and resistance lines. Finding at least two minimum (maximum) points for the support (resistance) line These points are frequently close to the significant round number of the traded asset. Such closeness can be explained by the work of trading algorithm authors and traders, who prefer to be guided by visual values. The drawing of lines from these points into the future They can be horizontal, with a positive or negative slope, or both. There may be several such lines on a single chart. an examination of the significance of the obtained lines of support and opposition. The third step is the most important. It considers the received charts from the following positions: The hourly line is more important than the minutely line, but it has less value when compared to the weekly line. Length: the longer the resistance and support lines on the chart, the more important they are as a signal of a trend reversal or trend development for the trader. A few finishing touches As the number of lows and highs on which the support and resistance lines are based grows, so does their credibility. Trading volume: If asset price areas of contact with support or resistance lines are accompanied by increased trading activity, it indicates that the lines are viewed as indicators by many traders. Only after analyzing the lines' significance in relation to the aforementioned points can you begin using them in trading strategies. How to Use Resistance and Support Levels in Live Trading There are numerous approaches to working with support and resistance lines. Even though there is a wealth of educational material available on the Internet, learning how to use support and resistance lines requires practice. To begin with, it is trading on a pullback and a breakout. This method assumes that if the price encounters significant support or resistance, it will most likely reverse. If the trend is strong, the price can cross any level and continue to rise. This strategy entails only placing orders in the direction of the current trend. Trading on support and resistance levels is possible in a horizontal price channel. In this case, trades are opened when the price approaches the upper boundary of the channel, with the expectation of a resistance line crossing or a price rebound and fall. Price support and resistance lines, rather than price points, are taken into account to a greater extent. Which trend will prevail must be determined by auxiliary tools on the chart, such as bar and candlestick behavior. Not all levels of opposition and support are equally strong. A level's "strength" refers to the accuracy of its signal: a breakout indicates the continuation of a strong trend, whereas a reversal indicates the start of a new movement in the opposite direction. In the market, false breakouts are common. Use the recommendations below to avoid them. Step 1: Keep an eye on the time frames. Look for extremes on a daily and weekly basis. They can be considered strong if they at least partially coincide with extrema in lower time frames. Market makers are frequently active in the M5-M15 time frame. The approximate accumulation zone for stop orders can be determined using the depth of the market and the logic of private traders. With large volumes and trigger stops, market makers pull the price to the required zone, obtaining an asset at the best price. Step 2: Count the number of touches. The finer the level touches, the better. Note that the line must be drawn on exact touches without "pulling wishful thinking." Support And Resistance Levels In Forex Trading In the forex market, strategies based on support and resistance lines may be considered basic. In particular, trading within the price corridor is applied in case of price bounces - buying on a bounce from the upper boundary and buying on the approach to the lower one. In this case, stop orders are set either above or below the boundaries. Trading along the lines is useful in distinctly determined trends. For instance, if you are in a downtrend, you should monitor the upward correction to the previous support level and the new resistance level. If we talk about uptrend, the correction to the previous resistance and the new support should be monitored. Still, breakout trading is one of the most popular strategies in the forex market. It requires defining support and resistance levels as precisely as possible. In this strategy pending orders are placed just above or just below resistance levels. Summary Support and resistance levels are essential when analyzing any chart, either currency pair or cryptocurrencies. The major problem in doing so is knowing how to identify levels and place lines correctly. This is a practical skill, as there is no unambiguous definition of how to determine the support and resistance lines accurately. The task of defining them can become easier due to the fact that there are numerous auxiliary tools on trading platforms to determine them. Many trading strategies are based on support and resistance lines, and their effectiveness, by the way, also depends on the trader's practical skills. By understanding the principles of levels application, you can not only improve your trading system but also learn to understand the market better and assess its prospects.
Education
by FOREXN1
9
My Backtesting Results on NZDCHFHolding trades is what I want to get better at and backtesting is going to help me do it. I've backtested NZDCHF today and found that it was a remarkable session. I was able to enter 4 trades in the span of 3 months gaining over what would have been 15% from the trades, but one trade hit my break even point so I gained around 12% from my trades. I used the monthly, weekly, and daily timeframes with most of my entries coming from the daily timeframe. I used my own strategy known as TMP. It stands for Trend, Market Structure, Price Action(or, pending orders). I identify the trend first, then set my estimation zone, then place my pending order. In that order, thats it. I don't use support and resistance, trend lines, or indicators for the most part. I like using price action. Its my preference that has changed throughout my trading career. I've noticed I a few reasons why I don't enter my best setups are due it 1) Money trauma( family had poor money management) 2) Time limit( pressure from showing results) To get over those, I have set parameters to take partials, move my trades to break even, and set pending orders to eliminate myself not entering my own trades. This helps in the long run and has helped since collecting data on myself since the start of me using prop firms. I can only pray that through my backtesting and trading journey, this can help you too. Please let me know if you have questions regarding my backtesting or found something unique that helped you. Safe trading❤️
Education
by ShaquanLopez
1