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EURUSD-2

Bat Harmonic Pattern - Made Easy For Everyone !The BAT pattern gets its name from the bat-shaped end product. Identified by Scott Carney in 2001, the BAT pattern is made up of precise elements that identify PRZs. The bat harmonic pattern follows different Fibonacci ratios. One of the major ways to differentiate it from a Cypher pattern is the B point which, if it doesn’t go above the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of the XA leg then it is a bat, otherwise it can turn into a cypher structure. The market strategy of the pattern is suitable for all time frames and all markets types. Traders have to keep in mind that on lower time frames using the bat pattern market strategy has some challenges because the pattern tends to appear on less frequent on lower time frames. How to Draw a Bat Pattern : As mentioned earlier, the bat harmonic pattern looks very similar to the Gartley pattern . It has four different legs marked as X-A, A-B, B-C, and C-D. X-A: In its bullish version, the first leg appears when the price sharply increases from point X to point A. This is the longest leg of the pattern. A-B: The A-B leg then sees the price switching direction and retracing 38.2 to 50 percent using the Fibonacci retracement of the distance covered by the X-A leg. Have it in mind that the A-B leg can never retrace beyond point X. But if it does, the pattern is considered invalid. As you can see, if the price with a spike reaches a point under 50% but with the body above, this will be Valid. The candle Body's important. B-C: Here, the price changes direction for a second time and moves back up, retracing anything from 38.2 to 88.6 percent of the distance covered by the A-B leg. If it retraces up above the high of point A, the pattern is considered invalid.As you can see, if the price with a spike reaches a point above 88.6% but with the body is below, this will be Valid. The candle Body's important. C-D: This is the last and most significant aspect of the pattern. As with the Gartley pattern , this is where the bat harmonic pattern ends and traders place their long (buy) trade at point D. ( PRZ Potential Reversal Zone ) The 88.6% percent retracement of the X-A leg is our Entry Point. D POINT or PRZ Before trying and trading the pattern, confirm from this checklist that the pattern is real. It should include these vital elements: A-B : 38.2 to 50% max percent using the Fibonacci retracement B-C : An 38.2 to 88.6% max percent Fibonacci retracement of the X-A leg C-D : The 88.6% percent retracement of the X-A Market strategy: Step 1: Drawing the pattern Begin by clicking on the XABCD pattern indicator that is found on the right-hand side toolbar of Tradingview Identify the beginning point X, which can be any swing high or low point on the chart. You should get 4 points or 4 swings high/low points that join and form the harmonic bat pattern strategy as explained Above Step 2: Trading the pattern The 88.6 percent Fibonacci ratio provides traders a more reliable risk/reward ratio which is why the market strategy of the bat pattern is such a very popular as a market strategy. The best entry point is the 88.6 percent Fibonacci retracement which is a very accurate market turning point. It is recommended that traders should enter as soon as they touch the 88.6 percent figure. Oftentimes the harmonic bat pattern strategy doesn’t go much above this level. Step 3: Placing a stop-loss Usually, traders should place their protective stop-loss lower than the point X of a harmonic bat pattern . That is the only logical location to hide the stop-loss because any break below will automatically invalidate the pattern.We use as manual the 113% Fibo of X-A as a picture below. Step 4: Take-profits There can be several ways to manage your trades, but the best target for this pattern should be to use a multiple-take profit formula. For this pattern strategy, take the first partial profit once you hit wave-B level and the remaining half wave-C. Once the price reaches the first target you should move the Stop Loss at BE ( breakeven - entry point ) or close the position in profit. By doing this you will accomplish two things: first, you’ll ensure that you accumulate profits and secondly, if the markets reverse, you ensure you’re stopped at BE and don’t lose any money. There are many ways to calculate the Take profits Target, this is one of the most used and we suggest starting in this way. Identical rules to draw and set parameters like stop loss and take profits are for the Bearish version. Nothing changed. Please note this is an introduction to the BAT pattern , for beginners. I tried to make it more easy and simple as I can.
Education
by FOREXN1
24
INDENTIFYING TRENDS LONG/SHORT TERM!!Just wanted to share a little insight into identifying trends and positioning yourself in the market for minimising risk and maximising profit! Its import to identify trends both short and long term to understand which direction price is heading and possibly reversal points. Top down analysis mixed with key levels and trend patterns is how I look at the market without getting to technical, and candle formations from these areas is where I look at entering positions.. everyone has there own trading style and this is just what works for me, I don't like to over complicate it with a million indicators, trendlines etc. I recommend finding a strategy that works for you and sticking to it, there are a heap of different ways to trade...
Education
by jamison_fx
How To Use The MACD IndicatorThe MACD (moving average convergence divergence) is one of my favourite trading tools or indicators, and might actually be the most powerful of them all. I first started using the MACD in 2015 and have been studying it since, it takes a long time to learn and understand all the parts of it. I wonder if I have learned all the hidden secrets by now, or will there be many more to come. The MACD is a trend analyzing momentum indicator that indicates the difference between two exponential moving averages. It is calculated by subtracting the 26 period ema from the 12 period ema, this plots the calculation of the MACD line. A 9 period EMA of the MACD called the signal line is then plotted alongside the MACD line which results in the formation of the strong MACD. The default settings of the MACD are 12, 26, 9, slightly faster settings can be achieved by changing the numbers. The MACD indicator is also composed of a histogram which plots the difference between the MACD line and the signal line. When the MACD is higher than the signal line the histogram will be above the zero axis, conversely if the MACD is below the signal line the histogram will be below the zero axis. There are many ways to use the MACD, 1) the first way to use the MACD is with the signal crosses such as when the MACD line crosses above the signal line. 2) a second way you can use the MACD as an indicator is when the MACD line and or signal line crosses above or below the zero axis, if it is crossing above the zero axis the trend is bullish, oppositely if it is crossing below the zero line the trend is said to be bearish. 3) A third way you can utilize the MACD is by using the histogram, when the histogram inflects from positive to negative this is a bearish signal, when the histogram inflects from negative to positive this is a bullish signal. More so for the example of 3) you can see that on the chart example I have provided below that the histogram is below the previous swing low and has shown a potential oversold value compared to the last or others before, you can compare other previous swing lows by zooming the chart out and making a larger comparison of all the values in the month or year for example, this also applies to 4) with the signal and MACD lines. 4) A fourth way to use the MACD as an indicator is by using the values on the Y axis, these can range to be any number increasing to positive infinity, or decreasing to negative infinity. You can furthermore compare previous high values and low values as an indication of the chart being overbought or oversold, you can use these values both with the MACD line/signal line and with the histogram itself. I suggest adding the MACD indicator to your chart and testing these methods.$EUR/USD Ilyas Khan Top1 Markets
Education
by Seafair-Capital-Management
1
How To Filter The Trend Using The 200 DSMAIn the market we often see inconsistent trends that occur between different cycles. For example, at this time today we may think one asset is strong such as the US dollar, but instead today it may occur that in reality the US dollar is weak today, only to see that the following day the US dollar is once again stronger, or next week after a week of bearishness. One method that banks and financial institutions use to filter the longer term trend is by using a technical indicator, the simple moving average of period 200, on the daily chart. Continually the sma 200 is used to filter the trend, when the price is above the sma 200 the asset is said to be in a bullish trend, and when the price is below the 200 daily sma the asset is said to be in a bearish trend. Let us look closer into this further and take the EURUSD daily chart as an example. Interestingly enough the EURUSD currency pair has been trading under the 200 day sma since June 17, 2021, quite some time. It has not been able to cross back above the 200 sma and has thus been seen by banks and financial institutions as bearish. This in turn helps to maintain consistency by establishing a more accurate consistent trend. In this case you can choose to take short positions only on the euro pair during cycles of the asset being overbought. Though this strategy can show strength in longer term trends there is one downside, with this strategy of course since you can only take short positions you get less trades annually on the higher time frames such as on the 4 hour or 1 day time frames. The benefit and upside is that they are usually more accurate longer term, and often the trend can last for months or in this case over a year sometimes longer, and beneficially you are always trading with the banks rather than against them. Ilyas Khan Top1 Markets
Education
by Seafair-Capital-Management
1
what is the difference between trend lines ?? as u can see here in ethusdt there are four trend lines ( three of it are main ) first of all what is trend line categories :- 1- major trend."primary trend" 2- secondary trend ." intermediate trend" 3- minor trend ." near term trend " _ ( major trend ) dow theory classifies the major trend as being in affect for longer than ayear and it differs from market to another as example in the commodity markets major trend is anything over six monthes . _( secondary trend) dow defined this trend as three weeks to as many monthes and its the same for the futures market. _(minor trend) this defined as anything less than two or three weeks. *i hope its short and informative.
Education
by alieltahan33
GOLD - The Entire Wave Caught 🔥In March this year, we posted a higher timeframe analysis where we identified that price was in wave 4 and that we were in an ABC correction. See full post below: Once we identified where we are in the wave sequence, it just came down to counting the waves correctly and trading according to our trading rules. We know that Wave C consists of 5 waves and follows the impulse schematic. Waves 1, 3 and 5 have 5 waves. Waves 2 and 4 have 3 waves. Ofcourse there are complexities where there are variations of waves within waves. However, once you understand the fundamental, you can slowly work your way down to lower timeframe and know whats next. That is exactly what we did. We followed the basic fundamental rules of Elliott Waves and worked our way through the entire wave C. How do we enter? Our entries are almost always trendline break entries. A trendline break tells us that momentum is shifting in the other direction and there are strict parameters for entry and stoploss which we don't deviate from. Entry: Break of trendline Bullish entry stoploss: below the candles once trendline breaks Bearish entry stoploss: above the candles before the trendline breaks If you go through the ideas in the chart, you will see that our entry is almost always trendline break entries. People may say trendlines do not work - sometimes it doesn't... if not used correctly. We mostly use trendlines when a correction is already formed. Using a trendline here to catch the breakout is perfect. The market isn't static. Things change. You will see that whilst the overall analysis remained the same, the lower timeframe analysis changed as moves overextend and its our job as traders to adapt to these changes. Do let us know what you think. As always, trade safe!
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by WicktatorFX
19
The concept of trend lines, support and resistance Today, I am going to explain the concept of trend lines, support and resistance. Above is the weekly chart of the EUR/USD, period between 2017 and 2022. The resistance or support level is where the price gets rejected at least twice. After that, traders can draw a line connecting those swing highs/lows, which later turn to be the resistance or support. This line can be horizontal or sloping, thus called trend line. A trend line connecting 2 lower highs or more is called descending and considered a resistance. A trend line connecting 2 higher lows or more is called ascending and considered support. Broken resistance becomes a support level and vice versa. Let's take the example chart above and explain the drawings for a better understanding: 1) In January 2017, EUR/USD bottomed at 1.0350 and has been trading above that level since then, until 2022. In the current year, the pair tested the mentioned price more than twice and bounced again. But eventually, sellers were able to break through this support, which later on in July, turned to be a resistance. Buyers tried to break through that level but failed to do so, and the price kept on going further down. 2) During the pandemic in March 2020, demand for safe assets surged, causing the Euro to trade as low as 1.0630 where buyers were met and made a quick rebound. In 2022, the Russia-Ukraine war has put a huge pressure on the EUR/USD, resulting in a strong bearish move. Sellers were able to break the 1.0630 level successfully, which later turned to a resistance level. 3) I highlighted the main 3 parallel trend lines/channels throughout the 2018-2022 period 1: A very clear lower highs/lower lows pattern indicating a bearish trend. 2: Once the 1.0630 support was met, buyers were able to create a higher highs/higher lows pattern indicating a bullish trend reversal. 3: However, in summer 2021, the pattern was broken and we started to notice trend exhaustion indicated by a failure to make higher highs and the market entered a bearish trend again inside a descending channel till present. I hope the drawings and explanations are clear. Will be happy to answer any question. Thank you
Education
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
🔍Studying horizontal volumes🤔🔍Volumes are one of the most useful tools on the market, That gives the most objective information about the alignment of forces between buyers and sellers (with qualitative analysis, of course). It is necessary to learn how to correctly interpret volumes ( volume analysis) and the trader gets a powerful tool at his disposal. Add to this risk management and money management (without this, you will never succeed in the market) and get one of the most profitable strategies. There are two types of volume: horizontal and vertical. And in this eduaction idea, we will get a little acquainted with horizontal volumes. 🧐 What is it? Horizontal volumes are a histogram based on the number of trades made at a price level. Unlike vertical volumes, that tells us about the volume traded for the set time period, horizontal volumes show the volume traded at the price level. This tool will allow to identify highly probable reversals, as well as areas of support and resistance . Thanks to TradingView, everyone can use the horizontal volume indicator for free. Thank you so much🙌 📊 Horizontal volume indicator includes: ➡️ Value Zone/Area ➡️ VAH (value area high) ➡️POC (point of control) ➡️ VAL (value area low) All of the above can be seen on the graph (marked on the graph above). The Value Zone/Area is the so-called "body" of the histogram for the selected period and is formed in the place where 70% (by default) of the total volume has passed. 🟡 VAH (value area high) is the top line of the value area. The upper line of the value zone can play the role of resistance and support. 🔴 VAL (value area low) is the bottom line of the value area. Formed where volumes are declining. The lower line of the VAL value zone can also play the role of resistance and support. You need to be very careful when the price approaches VAH and VAL❗️ 🔵 POC (Point of Control) is the most important level. It is a support or resistance zone depending on where the price is above or below the POC. As long as the crowd has not formed an imbalance in the POC area, the price will move either higher or lower than the POC. At this time, it is better not to trade, and let the price decide, entering from a re-test of the formed balance. 📈 How to trade? Remember that everything needs experience! You will need time to develop your strategy based on horizontal volumes or to include this tool in your existing arsenal. Analysis, observation and again analysis! Pay special attention to POC, this level is the most important and interesting in terms of opening a position. Here you should pay attention to the weekly POC and intraday. On the charts above, you can see trades in Gold ( XAUUSD ) and Silver ( XAGUSD ) that were opened exactly from the POC week (previous). You can observe the results yourself. Of course, there are also losing trades, but with the observance of risk management and a systematic risk/reward ratio, success is guaranteed. 🔴 Conclusion Horizontal volumes will help identify (but more confirm) support and resistance levels/areas. Near VAH, VAL and POC, one should be as careful as possible, as this is a good opportunity for a probable entry into a trade. We can call it a "creative process": you will definitely see and form many entry and strategy opportunities based on this. 😉 Thank you for reading and profitable trades ❗️
OANDA:XAGUSDEducation
by ALIEV-FX
7
XAUUSD:Playing with lines,Part 6Hello friends ..Based on the chart we can play with lines and patterns .In this method we learn how to trade with lines and patterns .Price reacts beautifully to lines and patterns .We compete with big computers and artificial intelligence in analysis .Repetition is important to us .Analysis is like a series. Continue from wherever you start to the end .important points: .New York close time is important to us .Breakout and pullback trend lines are important .High and Low of the previous days are important for us .Times M5 and M1are important .This method has no limitations. We can use it in all markets .Follow us for more training and analysis
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by youseftn1
1
🔍What you need to know about the DXY index🤔🔍 DXY INDEX (USDX) displays the value of USD against a basket of six foreign currencies: EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF. This index is calculated on the basis of the weighted average ratio of USD to six currencies. ➡️ EUR —> 57,6% ➡️ JPY —> 13,6% ➡️ GBP —> 11,9% ➡️ CAD —> 9,1% ➡️ SEK —> 4,2% ➡️ CHF —> 3,6% ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ ❗️ Interesting note ❗️ Given the fact that the EUR is included in the DXY (the largest weight in the index, so it is not surprising that the DXY and EURUSD are highly correlated), the dollar index is the currency of the member countries of the EUR zone. ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ The index was created by JPMorgan Chase, which officially released this trading instrument to the market in 1973. The level of 100 was taken as the base value. The index was not subject to any changes, except for the introduction of EUR in Europe. DXY allows you to form an idea of ​​the value of the USD and its weight in the world. In addition, this index may signal a recession in the world: the rapid growth of DXY indicates that market participants prefer to withdraw their investments in cash, i.e. in USD, and in moments of economic instability, buy US bonds with these USD. 🔴 Thus, the index is used as a separate speculative trading instrument in the market, and also serves as an indicator that allows you to determine current financial trends.
TVC:DXYEducation
by ALIEV-FX
4
An Idiot's Guide to EURUSD: 5 Steps to Success 💲💲💲Synopsis If you trade Forex then you know the weekends are the best time to analyse the market. Everybody likes to talk about how volatile EURUSD is, but what they don't tell you is that the market is ranging a good 80%-90% of the time; good deals do NOT last long. In fact, half of a days price movement can play out in 15-45 minutes, It's that fast. The best entries are usually snatched up in a matter of minutes, meaning that slow momentum oscillators and lagging trend following indicators don't perform well in these conditions. EURUSD in my opinion trades a lot like CL (crude WTI), where trading decisions need to be made while volatility is low to mitigate risk. Translation: if you can't win in a range, you're going to blow your account in this market, trust me. I see so many people on here setting targets 2-3 times the daily atr with the expectation that they'll be paid by the end of the day or the next day. Don't do that, please. It's not a sprint, it's a marathon. Long term gains depend on practical consistent returns, not 10:1 RRs. It's actually a lot more realistic to take ZERO to two 20-40 pip trades per day. Over the course of a week it adds up. The chart: This week we came off of a really strong bullish surge away from parity, and the market then did what it does best, range. And the way that prices are moving right now is just classic EURUSD, I love it...I get so nostalgic, because ranges like these are how I learned to trade; the way that the market recycles over and over makes it so fun to trade, it never gets stale. Since it's the weekend and the markets are closed, I wanted to take this opportunity to share with anyone who might be wondering what it's like to day trade this market. How to trade ranges: Step 1: Find your levels... The easiest way is to map out support and resistance zones. On the chart, I use my own variation of the Williams fractals indicator (I call them Neo fractals 😎) for every prominent swing high or swing low, the indicator draws a horizontal ray from the highest, lowest close and projects it out into the future. You can see the spots where lines start stacking up in a certain price range act as stronger support or resistance than the areas with only one dotted line. It only takes about 5-10 minutes per day to do this by hand though, so an indicator definitely isn't necessary. It's really important to be able to eyeball pivot points yourself anyways. Step 2: Determine market phase... After you've mapped everything out, it becomes a lot clearer what's happening in the market, and if the market is ranging or trending. If the market's ranging, you will see far more s/r lines on your chart especially once you start seeing s/r lines stacking up close to one another. A clear giveaway that the market is ranging is when price makes strong moves in one direction, only to return back from where it came, later in the day. Once you've determined what phase of the market you're even closer to spotting high quality trades. Step 3: The next step is to find areas of value... In general you want to find the areas within the range which provide the most exclusive prices, And steer away from price ranges that hold 80-90% of the activity on the cart. Being 5-10 pips in profit before a big move will completely change the way you feel about a trade when it starts to go against you (plenty winning trades will go against you, especially if you're trading reversals). On the chart you can see that the supply and demand zones only produced 2-4 trades this week, but all of them were for over 50 pips. These aren't the only trades you can take, but they're definitely the highest RR trades, you can get in a ranging market. Step 4: What for confirmation... There are so many ways to confirm a move, but my favorite for this market is a phenomena that I like to call a spike. (There's probably an actual name for it, but I'm self taught so I just make stuff up as I go 😅) Find a hammer or star candle on a higher chart like the daily or 4hr and it look at that time period again on a lower timeframe, what you'll see is that the hammer or star is actually just a large price movement in one direction followed by an equally large movement in the other direction. What might appear as a spike on a lower timeframe will appear as a hammer or star on a higher time frame, and the larger and longer the chart pattern takes to complete, the larger and longer the move will be in the opposite direction. These are the Rolls Royce of signals. When you realize that a head and shoulders pattern is really just a series of spikes, it will completely change the way that you trade. In my experience, trading price spikes alone out performs every other chart pattern there is, because most candlestick and chart patterns are made up of a series of spikes anyways. Most consolidation periods end in a large spike followed by a 1-200 pip surge in the opposite direction. They appear most often on higher timeframes as hammers and stars, or large engulfment. but on the lower time frames you can watch these things play out over 5 ,10 or even 100 periods sometimes. The key is to have very strict rules for what you consider a spike to be, how many pips? What kind of ratio are you looking for? is it happening in an area of value? etc. Step 5: The range leads to the trend... The reason that trend following strategies under perform in this market is because strong trends don't last long on EU AND getting good value is insanely competitive. The key is to spot these trends early, you have to be looking when nobody else is looking. That means waking up earlier than everyone else and having a plan in place before the move happens...Not seeing a big candle and just hopping in. I try to have a daily strategy in place before the Asian session ends, that way, I''m ready for London and NY. I live in the US, so that means I'm waking up everyday around midnight to 1 in the morning. But most of the time, if my trade starts well, I go back to bed and check back in around 7. If you want to trade EURUSD, that's what it takes though. There might have to be lifestyle changes that you have to make (especially for North and South American traders) in order to really commit yourself to this market and give your trading it the attention that it needs.
Education
by NeoDaNomad
Shocking Truths about Trading no one talks about EP1.After 5 years of self-educating myself in the art of trading while undergoing brutal consistent losses, these are the truths that set me on the path of surprising consistency after internalizing them.....I hope it will for you guys and give more inspiration to the already consistent ones. Shocking Truths no one talks about in trading: 1. You may have the best strategy, signal provider or learned everything about trading, but what counts is what happens to that knowledge 5 seconds before pressing the buy/sell button. 2. What is Mathematically optimal is Psychologically impossible. If you have a strategy that gets wins of 25R but has like 12 losses in a row, DUMP IT. Mathematically, you will make money at the end, Psychologically you will quit before you take trade 13. 3. You start winning in trading when you believe you can lose (Trading Paradox). Consistently profitable traders have one thing in common: they place their next trade like it was already a loser. 4. Extremely good analysts are most often bad traders....you can be right about the direction but fail in the critically important aspect of Entry timing and still lose the trade. 5. IT IS THE SIMPLE THINGS THAT WORK!. Most people will tell you to look for complex strategies that look for "Random walk algorithmic discrepancies that rhyme with Chaos theories....and all that blah..." But I have been on that path and I hate to break it to you that a guy/girl using only support and resistance and simple moving average crossovers with a verified and bactested edge and discipline will most likely be more profitable. 5. THE MORE OBVIOUS A TRADE IS THE GREATER THE CHANCES YOU LOSE IT. Most people think that if a trade has soooo many confluences it is more likely to work....well that might be true to an extent after which it is a blatant fallacy. From historical data and my own personal LIVE trading results, the probability of a trade working out reduces DRASTICALLY when the number of confluences crosses 5. I theorize that this happens because market makers will see all the orders placed at that point is soo much(cause everyone will see the opportunity with their different approaches) and take them all out. 6. No one can sell a money printer, cause it has no price. If someone offers to sell you a robot or STRATEGY that triples your money every month, laugh and pass, if you don't and end up buying that....you deserved to be scammed. Think about it the person can just take $100 and apply his/her magic to it and print out Elon Musk's networth in lower than 3 years using compounding......and he/she will sell you that for $2000?, you must be kidding me!. 7. Your consistency has nothing to do with your strategy but your mind. I can bet you my life's earnings, that there is someone out there, using your exact entry and exit rules but is profitable and you are not. A better strategy brings in more profit, but any random edge with the right mindset and risk management MUST be profitable. 8. Almost everything in life is a pyramid-scheme, & survival of the fittest and trading is not left out. No matter how much we desire to the contrary, it is IMPERATIVE THAT TRADING HAS MORE LOSERS THAN WINNERS. The winners in trading have to be relatively fewer cause they win a lot and hence they need soo many losers to give them that money. There is no bank that hands at money to you when you win, your job as a trader is to outsmart some other fellow and TAKE his/her money and once you come to terms that every dollar lost by you trading, is a dollar gained by someone else in this zero-sum game, you will realize only YOU has got your own back. 9. You can NEVER completely eliminate emotions in trading but you can set rules that allow you trade only when you are at your optimal state, and gives you a day or two vacation when you are down. 10. Reading this article will definitely NOT HELP YOU, it is remembering it the moment before you place your next trade that will. Pls LIKE and Subscribe, I want to know what you think about this article and which point you agree with the most or disagree with. Tell me whether it helped you in any way and if we get 50 likes and 20 comments I will consider making the next episode.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDEducation
by LexyenHille
3
EURUSD.... SEE WHY MANY PEOPLE LOST THIS TRADE... AVOID ITHello Traders, So today I am doing a trade recap on a trade I lost due to lack of detail. Note, in trading, after knowing how trading works, every thing comes down to the level of attention/detail you give to your chart. Detail, detail, detail... never forget. I have labelled the chart accordingly so your understanding can be seamless. But if you still need clarity let me know. I use my weekend to analyse why my trade won or lost. And this is an approach to trading that people should undertake. This should come after journaling your trade. The thing is, you will make mistakes, you will not see everything (detail) but continue. Reduce the number of pairs you trade, reduce the indicators, reduce the trendlines and every other thing... Your chart should be clear and easy on the eyes. I only look at 10 markets (the 7 majors and AUDNZD, CADCHF & EURGBP). I add the 3 crosses only because I want to have alternative for all the currencies excluding JPY. I don't use indicators (not saying it is bad but reduce it), I don't use trendline (because price is moves horizontally - unpopular opinion). When you have just a few pairs, you are able to understand the moves better and you can free your brain from analysing so many pairs. Just imagine using indicators, lines upon lines, and the market changes form... now you need to start all over again your analysis on all your multiple markets, looking at so many things. Trust me, you are bound to miss the obvious details not to talk of the hidden ones and its a lot of work. I am sure you must have experienced it. I am still very bullish on EURUSD and right now, I am not looking for an entry, I am waiting for a break of the 4H high then I will look for an entry which I will share on my page. If you would like to see it, all you need to do is click on follow. I will also link my previous analysis on EURUSD, AUDNZD, USDJPY Stay tuned for more. BR. David
Education
by jabariofafrica
4
EUR/USD most popular currency in the world!A little history… The euro is a new currency that was born in 1999. It was created on the basis of the "European monetary unit", which replaced (abolished) the entire national currency of the countries of the European Union. Therefore, the peculiarity of the euro is that it is sensitive not only to the macroeconomics of the entire EU, but also to the individual economies of France and Germany. It is the most popular currency pair in the world, representing the two largest economies in the world. The euro was created to facilitate international trade between European trading partners. The pair has experienced significant fluctuations since its founding in 1999, caused by many global events, such as the technology boom that led to the real estate price bubble and the European debt crisis. The European Central Bank (ECB) plays the role of the issuer and regulator of the pan-European currency. The main support for its creation in 1998 is the banking system, which is based in Frankfurt am Main, and its fund was created on the basis of the participation of all representatives of EU countries. In addition to its issuing, supervisory and monitoring activities, the ECB charter is responsible for maintaining the financial stability of the eurozone. General technical specifications More than a third of the total volume of transactions in the foreign exchange market fall on a pair of euros to the dollar. This is due to the economic scale of the countries. The base currency is the euro, the dollar is the quoted currency. In other words, the euro-dollar exchange rate shows how many dollars you will have to pay for one euro. If there is positive news in the US and you predict a rise in the dollar, then you should sell. If you predict the growth of European currencies against the dollar, then you should buy quotes. What factors do the euro dollar exchange rate depend on? The main factors contributing to the change in the euro-dollar price revolve around the monetary policy of the United States. There are several levers that can help the Fed regulate and change cash flows in various ways: Open Market Interventions; Increase or decrease of the discount rate; Managing the level of reserve requirements. The Federal Reserve Board may immediately change the terms of the reserve and the discount rate. By changing one of the three factors, the Fed affects the amount of funds and ultimately changes the real ratio of the dollar to other currencies (including the euro). Thus, the Fed's decision is a long-term priority factor for the euro currency pair. The main factor affecting the euro/dollar exchange rate is the interest rate of the Federal Reserve System. This indicator represents the daily payment of interest on loans by credit institutions (banks). When it is necessary to tighten or weaken the national currency, US financial regulators will change interest rates. Traditionally, these measures have had a significant impact on both the foreign exchange and the stock market. Euro to Dollar exchange rate The European Central Bank regulates the monetary policy of the EU countries. The main decision on the European exchange rate is made by the Governing Council, consisting of representatives of national banks of the EU countries. The main objective of the ECB's work is financial stability and full response to the consequences of the global financial crisis of 2008. Serious economic problems of all EU countries can have a negative impact on the euro exchange rate. This is evident from the dynamics of euro prices during the economic crises in Greece and Spain. Macroeconomic emissions are also a very important factor influencing the strengthening or weakening of the euro. The most important news is from Germany. This is due to the fact that Germany is the largest economy in the European Union. The most important information is the state of GDP, the theoretical and real inflation index, the growth or decline rates of industrial production, as well as unemployment figures. It is important to take into account the deficit and the effectiveness of current measures to combat the economic downturn of the economy. Techniques for making a profit There is a strong inverse correlation between the values of EUR/USD and USD/CHF, which shows an approximate relationship between the euro and the franc. This is due to the fact that Switzerland's economic situation largely depends on the economic and political development of the EU. In most cases, after the euro falls against the dollar, the euro/franc currency pair immediately falls. Given the correlation between the British pound and the euro, the pound/dollar pair has a significant correlation. Euro Dollar chart To make money in euro dollars, traders need some skills. Fast trading in 15 minutes or even 5 minutes can allow you to make a significant profit. The frequent volatility of this quote allows you to implement the most daring and risky trading strategies. A moving average or a combined indicator (for example, MACD) will be able to give a fairly accurate entry point. Exit from the position can traditionally be based on a breakout of the price channel. When using the chart for 1 day or more, the deviation and reversal of the position can also be based on the intersection of the moving average. Conclusion EUR/USD has a relatively small history, but in this short time the pair has become popular with many. High volatility creates many opportunities for earnings, but do not forget about the risks. The pair is dangerous for untrained traders. Good luck!
Education
by DeGRAM
2
How To Trade Like Banks Using Accumulation & Distribution: FOREXIn this video, I will be sharing How To Trade Like Banks Using Accumulation & Distribution and give my forex tutorial so you can watch it to possibly improve your forex trading skillset. The concept of accumulation & distribution in forex trading is very important to understand the cycles that the market goes through and not remain trapped in sideways moving markets with tons of manipulations.
Education
by Transparent_Fx_Academy
11
IMBALANCE ORDER- FILLED!Yesterday EU went Parabolic and didn't give anyone else a chance to get in at those prices. So this morning price is FILLING IMBALANCES. This chart illustrates this every day move in real time. The Market goes up. The Market goes down. The Market goes sideways. 3 moves. Price moves to fill 1. Imbalances 2. Liquidity Our job is to identify these moves and formulate strategies to help us Capitalize on the Money Moves aka Trends out of Consolidation and Ranging Zones. Never over leverage. Trust your trade set up. Have fun!
Education
by Master-Jedi-Trader
EURUSD : Scalping 30m chart strategy , simple!Think you are the master of discipline? Here's your potential way to make it big trading! Extremely straight forward is this RSI 14 , 30 minute chart strategy. When RSI goes to around 70+ it's time to short and aim for 10-15 pip When RSI goes to around 30 and below , it's time to long and aim for 10-15 pip. You can place your SL with 10 pip lower/higher and your TP with 15 pip higher/lower. Money management is critical and discipline is critical. You are not to aim for bigger profit, further SL, trade when RSI is not overbought/oversold and so on. Money management should be almost minimal lot size with every trade like this you take. Split it with 4-5 currencies and you have yourself a strategy to follow and test. Good luck! ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you found my idea useful, please like and follow! It would mean a lot to me. Thank you so much for listening and let me know what I can do to help , with questions/comments on the post. Obviously I am not a financial advisor and I encourage you to do your own research and be cautious when day trading! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Education
by Exactus
6
EURO under pressure - Key element to watchEURO under pressure - Key element to watch Context : Since 2000 EUR/USD is evolving between 0,82 and 1,60 providing two clear floor and cap level following the trend of global macro economy and the strategies deployed in the differents major central banks. The last past weeks following the decision to lower the Quantative Easing, the different actions took in the world in order to control the inflation and the good figure confirming the pursuit of the accumulation of the growth (even slower than last year) in the develop countries - The consensus for the Euro were quiet clear => main research highlighted 1,08/1,12 as strong support area and 1,18/1,23 as strong resistance for a further trading range without significant element for EUR or USD to take significant advantage regarding Growth, inflation and monetary policy. Today the situation is a bit different with less visibilty regarding the situation in Ukraine and even if we can exclude potential risk of global war, we can't ignored the risk about bilateral sanction between NATO countries and Russia. It means significant problem with energy/metals/commodities supply and price, political destabilisation, cyber attack, etc... This kind of modification take time to be absorbe and modified in order to set up a new strategy were russia will stay isolated from global economy for a while. The first economy to be impacted will be definitely the Europe in this crisis and the EURO since one week is in a free fall mode. So what to understand from EURUSD chart and what to focus on? : - Only a Weekly Chart Basis 1/ The previous upside trend ABC 0,82 to 1,60 has been follow by a consolidation in ABC towards 1,02 (or a construction of the long-term downside swing within a huge triangle) 2/ For now the ABC downside pattern within the bearish channel seems to be finished with the test of the 1,02 support - Then we are evolving within a range/triangle dynamic (Blue Frame) ---> That the graphical situation illustrating the context above. 3/ If the ABC downside pattern is not finished we gonna see a downside breakout from the triangle/range structure on going (inside the blue frame) to open further downside risk ----> Risk = Irregular running Range (Test of the 1,0075/0,9750) ----> Risk = poursuit of the bearish channel within a complex ABC X ABC pattern towards 0,8450 4/ RSI indicators is approaching support but didn't reached the previous oversold area where bullish reaction started = It is more likely to see more bearish momentum to be developed. 5/ Moving averages are now capping the market at 1,1530 Analysis Regarding the key elements and giving more weight to the Waves structures and the recurrence of Fibonacci levels, we can still giving more credit to see a development of a further trading range (blue frame) than a free fall of the Euro within the bearish channel towards 0,8450. Where it is more tricky to to have conviction is between a range in irregular with the test of parity before swinging up or triangle pattern with 1,0750 as key support before developing a new upside swing The key resistance is for now clearly set at 1,1530 and only a break out of this resitance can lower the downside risk significantly. Trading => Intraday/multi days traders will use 1,0750 as stop loss level to catch the dip and play agressive recovery with for now the Moving Average as Target to watch => Mid-term Institutional trader seems already in restructuration of the strategy by activating action to hedge the commodities upside risk and the pressure on Europe, so i would say that the hedge in place is between 1,0750/0,97 for the downside risk and 1,1530 (Neutrality area protection to adjust option)
Education
by JeanJean1983
How to determine the real value of the national currency?The National Regulator openly manipulates the exchange rate to the benefit of the economy, undervaluing it when there is a trade deficit, thereby helping exports, and overvaluing it when there is a surplus, so that citizens and businesses can buy more imported goods. The real exchange rate of a nation's currency is determined by its purchasing power abroad. In theory, it is calculated through a sample of identical goods. It is enough to estimate how much a certain conditional consumer basket costs in the home country, and compare the amount spent in another country. --- --- --- Why do we need to know the exchange rate regime and the real value of the national currencies? If a country has a fixed or transitional exchange rate, a currency trader can determine the entry points with a guaranteed profit. For example, the yuan is strictly "locked" in the corridor of 2% on the stock exchange, which allows you to enter at the maximum deviations, knowing exactly what intervention of the People's Bank will soon follow. The peculiarities of such trading are described in our article about USDCNH trading. Knowing the pricing mode, you can determine the entry strategy on the border of the basket value. Examples of trading such currency pairs using currency corridors are presented below. Trading on the Boundaries of the Nominal Value of National Currencies in Fixed and Transition Modes UAE Dirham (AED) The USDAED currency pair is the easiest to trade because of its strongest peg to the dollar - the national central bank kept the exchange rate at 3.6725 dirham even during the 2008 crisis. As a result the UAE national currency chart looks like a series of candles with long tails, above and below which pending orders should be placed. The figure shows a weekly candlestick chart, where you can see the possible deal levels at a glance, but there are some subtleties in this kind of trading. Firstly, there are only two brokers who are ready to provide access to the USDAED pair; secondly, they ask for a minimum deposit of $10,000; thirdly, the maximum leverage for this currency is 1 to 5. --- --- --- Models for determining the real exchange rate There is no single ideal model in the Forex market that works out 100% of the signals for the differences between the nominal value of the currency. Just like any indicators, the presented formulas need a historical check, they are suitable for certain currency pairs with different accuracy and work in combination with each other. This is why we will try to examine the basic models and theories of exchange rates. The purchasing power of the national currency against any other currency is determined in four ways, which we will talk about below. --- --- --- The law of one price - comparing the cost of the same good in different countries The current price of a commodity in national currency units = The exchange rate of the currency pair* The current price of a commodity in a foreign currency. --- --- --- Absolute Purchasing Power Parity In the formula of absolute parity instead of the price of one product, the average price level of the same basket of goods for different countries is used as expressed in national currencies or minimum subsistence values. For example, in Australia the living wage was 600 AUD for 2017, while in the European Union it is equal to: in Germany - 1240 euros, in France - 1254, in Italy - 855. The euro is a common currency for 26 states, so the three largest EU economies were chosen to use the average value of (1240+1255+855)/3= 1117 in the formula. If 1117 is the average EU living wage and 600 is Australia's living wage, then solving this expression, we get 1117/600 = 1.86. In 2017, the EURAUD exchange rate was 1.38. As you can see from the graph of the currency pair, the arbitrage correctly predicted the trend of strengthening of the euro. --- --- --- Relative trade parity. Economists in their calculations use economic indicators that show the relative change in consumer prices. The difference between the current indicator value from the economic calendar and previous data is substituted into the formula. For example, the U.S. Consumer Price Index was 119.4 in 2012 and rose to 121 by 2013. During this period, the EU CPI showed values of 118.3 and 120.1. The EURUSD exchange rate changed from 1.30 to 1.36. Using the formula, let's calculate the real euro exchange rate by taking the 2012 value of 1.30, successively multiplying it by a fraction of the relative values of the U.S. CPI 121/119.4 and the European CPI 120.1/118.3: 1,3* (121/119,4) *(120,1/118,3) = 1,3374. As you can see from the formula, the euro was undervalued, which led to the collapse in 2014, where parity was equalized due to monetary measures taken by the ECB and the Fed. The consumer price index is essentially an indicator of inflation, which is the primary focus of central banks when making decisions on the size of the discount rate. In economic statistics, it is rare to see this indicator published in relative units; everywhere there is a percentage change, which can also be used in another model. --- --- --- Relative Inflation Parity When calculating the real value of national money relative to the currency of another country, a slightly modified formula is used. The current rate of a currency pair can be represented as equal to (1 + annual inflation of one country/1 + annual inflation of another country) * the current rate of the pair at the Forex market. Let's calculate the EURUSD exchange rate in 2015. At the end of that period, U.S. inflation was 0.73%, while in the Eurozone it was 0.08%. The real EURUSD exchange rate at the end of 2015 = (1 +0.0083)/(1+0.073)*1.0565= 0.992. EURUSD quotes at the beginning of 2016 were undervalued, and the rate hike policy adopted by the Fed did not immediately save the situation - the market saw values close to 1.02 before the value of the European currency began to rise. This formula can be used to forecast the exchange rate by fitting it with the future inflation that central banks calculate in the reports they publish at every monthly meeting. --- --- --- Sincerely R. Linda!
Education
by RLinda
14