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Trading Psychology 2 How Strong is your Trading Mentality?How strong is your Trader Mentality? Signs of an "Amateur Mindset" If you identify with any of these characteristics while trading, you are suffering from an Amateur Mindset. These are normal when first learning how to trade, and even common in advanced traders who have not yet mastered their trading psychology. Very succesful traders may still occasionally experience some of these symptoms while increasing positions, but as far as day to day, do not. Hesitation to enter positions meeting edge criteria Fail to exit trades not performing to expectations Feelings of fear (missing out, failure, success, leaving money on the table, etc.) Upset/mad when prices go against you or happy / relief when prices go your way The market is too painful to watch (pain avoidance) Market actions led by emotions / feelings / stress Forms and applies rigid rules for entry / exiting market Afraid to make mistakes / upset after mistakes Signs of a "Probability mindset" or Professional Trader Enters or exits trades without hesitation Does not experience internal conflict while entering, or managing trades Willing to take a loss (accepts his risk) Flows with the market seemingly effortlessly Not attached to outcome of any trade Emotions / stress do not lead to market actions Enters / exits however necessary Accepts mistakes and moves on Interestingly, it is easy to separate a professional trader from an amateur, not based on profits or losses, or the amount of ticks he makes a day; but based on his actions in the market. By observing how a trader interacts and engages with the market it is obvious if his actions were led by emotions or intuitively based on what the market told him to do at the time. Professionals flow with the market, and do not fight or resist it in any way. As a result money seems to flow effortlessly into their accounts, and their equity curve is that of a healthy bull trend. Amateurs are constantly fighting the market and themselves, with actions led by what they think, perceive as a threat, or the false belief that they know what is going to happen next. The outcome is a slowly depreciating account balance, and an equity curve that is flat or in a bear trend. The later is a sign of trading errors made by the trader and not that of an edge being executed properly. Continued...
AMEX:SDSEducation
by tradersmentality
Trading Psychology Introduction to Trader Psychology There is evidence of technical analysis dating back to the 17th century. The candlestick charts most of use everyday to trade were created in the 18th century by a Japanese rice trader. By this point one would think technical analysis should result in more profitable traders and lead atleast a quarter of price technicians to a profit. However, this is not the case and in fact the opposite is true as most traders fail, even after years of studying price action. With this said, it is obvious learning how to read a price chart alone is not what leads to consistent profits. So what is it that seperates the very few succesful traders from the so many failures? Is it their strategy, their money managament skills, IQ, were they born with a different skill set than most, do they work harder than most, or are they just plain lucky? All of these sound plausible, but are they really the driving factor behind consistent profits? The short answer is no, none of the above. Perhaps we have been looking for the answer in the wrong place all along. In fact, most traders never even consider the possibility that it is their attitude or mental habits which prevent their success. What truely seperates the winners from the losers has nothing to do with external factors, but rather what goes on internally while observing and engaging the market, in other words; a traders mentality. "If the next bar is a bull follow through bar, the bulls have a 60% chance of making a profit. If the next bar is a bear bar that means....." Absolutely nothing! Unless you can structure a trade plan, and abide your plan as the market unfolds, without questioning yourself or your plan, and execute it flawlessly. Most beginning traders believe if they study harder and learn more setups, they will eventually become profitable. This is the fallacy of price action analysis. In fact, most economists and price analysts do not make good traders. Why? Because they form rigid rules and ideas as to what prices should or will do, and in turn fail to recognize and accept the "now opporutinty" the market is offering to traders who are open to all possibilities, including a lower probability event. Even more debilitating is the false belief that they can pick out winning trades, and avoid the losers, which leads to cherry picking through a traders edge. If the market spends most of its time with a probability between 40-60%, why is it so hard to generate a consistent profit? Understanding prices and their tendencies is only half the battle of becoming a Professional Trader. The other half and harder to develop, is the traders mindset. What makes a good trader is not only his knack for reading prices. It is the ability to flow with the market as it is unfolding, and the art of doing the right thing at the right time; without questioning himself. If the market is only offering X amount of profit, he takes it. If the market is unfolding in a way that he did not expect, he exits. He is willing to take a loss, and more importantly does not care what happens to "himself" in the market. He does not take it personally, and carries on throughout the day executing trade after trade. Continued...
Education
by tradersmentality
"BULL FLAG"Hello! I start my EDUCATION Lessons with a "Bull Flag" chart pattern! A flag pattern is a trend continuation pattern, appropriately named after it’s visual similarity to a flag on a flagpole. A “flag” is composed of an explosive strong price move that forms the flagpole, followed by an orderly and diagonally symmetrical pullback, which forms the flag. When the trendline resistance on the flag breaks, it triggers the next leg of the trend move and the stock proceeds ahead. What separates the flag from a typical breakout or breakdown is the pole formation representing almost a vertical and parabolic initial price move. Flag patterns can be bullish or bearish . This pattern starts with a strong almost vertical price spike that takes the short-sellers completely off-guard as they cover in a frenzy as more buyers come in off the fence (Flagpole). Eventually, the price peaks and forms an orderly pullback where the highs and lows are literally parallel to each other, forming a tilted rectangle . Upper and lower trendlines are plotted to reflect the parallel diagonal nature. The breakout forms when the upper resistance trend line breaks again as prices surge back towards the high of the formation and explode through to trigger another breakout and uptrend move. The sharper the spike on the flagpole, the more powerful the bull flag can be. Additionally, this consolidation will retrace a small portion of the previous uptrend. If the retracement becomes deeper than 50%, it may not be a flag pattern . Ideally, we’ll see the retracement be less than 38%. Since this is a continuation pattern, we look for prices to break higher with a length equal to the size of the flagpole. The tighter the flag - the more powerful it is! Don't forget to SHARE this, hit the LIKE and the FOLLOW button if you feel this topic deserves it! That's the best way to support me and help to push this analysis to other users. Best regards!
Education
by VaidoVeek
7
How to trade EUR/USD on the Daily Timeframe [FULL EXPLANATION]Trading EUR/USD on the Daily Time Frame: Delete the noise, patience wins Here I present a textbook trading set-up + a fancy little indicator known as the EAG Yume Wave. First we need to set up our parameters, what is confirmation and what isn't? Your analysis does not need to be over complicated, you want to be considering the key/strongest variables when you are creating your final equation. You can backtest multiple indicators, I usually play around with ichi, different MAs and a couple of momentum indicators and the RSI to see if I can make anything work. Here are my personal EURO/USD Daily TF Trade Parameters and WHY I have chosen them~ 185 EMA This has acted as a really good measure of resistance all the way through EUR/USD's last few months. To find this I played about with the settings. Fibonacci lines and extension These allow me to see all the individual lines to trade from and where my points of confirmation will be when a fib line gets broke. Trend lines and horizontal support & res Important textbook trading skills that should line up with my other indicators and fiblines. EAG YUME WAVE Indicator Watching for the twist and then watching for if the Miaku can provide support on the downfall. Volume + MA Volume in traditional markets can help us confirm where potential bottoms are with good buy backs. Do bear in mind there is the risk of a volume divergence hence why I am neither bullish nor bearish UNTIL we get some form of confirmation! If you learnt something or just want a chat about how I trade add me on Discord: Xander#5055 A follow and a like would be greatly appreciated for my time :D ~Xander
Education
by XanderCrypto
4
Trading system for Binary Options 70-80% positive trades Hi Friends ! I decided to show how my strategy works . Quite well shows the turning point of the price . This is a strategy for Binary Options . Perfect for those who are not much in a hurry and loves to trade on scalping (Strategy as simple and reliable) The strategy consists of two main scripts and one auxiliary that allows you to use the free version of T. V You can work on most currency pairs and on different T. f, but the settings are more adapted For t. f M5 Support and resistance levels are drawn and updated automatically, which is very convenient for beginners . If you strictly follow the recommendations and work within this strategy, the percentage of positive transactions is about 80 % .That allows you not to use "martingale" and stay in the black with minimal risk. But if you still like the martingale it is usually enough 3 rarely 4 steps. ( I advise you to use martingale only after two months of practice on this strategy ) Below are screenshots with more detailed recommendations . How to choose the right entry point. How to act with a false signal As an example screenshots with statistics for 30.05.18 on EUR-USD Timeframe 5M. If you are interested in this strategy to gain access to all three of the necessary script, please contact me in private messages ! ( comments rarely looking better to write in private messages )
Education
by Andreev_Mikhail
1
Skulls, Bones And Candlesticks - The Margin CallIf you are a beginner in the wonderful world of charts, patterns and indicators, this post is for you... Almost all traders have on day faced an account crash and anyone knows that it is a damn bad moment to go through. My goal here is to identify what is the main reason leading to this morbid situation that make us crash our accounts...and provide some tips to avoid being in panic when the margin call happens. The leverage and margin level. The trading world is seen as an eldorado for most of people, especially because it seems so easy to make much money very quickly. It is also a path to financial independency which is a dream for many people. Working from home or simply working with only a smartphone and make money like that. It seems so nice. Let's be clear, If the leverage did not exist we would not be here on Tradingview. If trading knows as much succes, it is also because we can invest much more than we have in fact. With $1,000, we are able to invest up to $500,000 in the market... from our smartphone... Simply insane. Difficult to stay cold being aware of that. Who has never been in margin call here? This situation should never happen. If so, then your trading behavior is at risk and you will crash your account sooner or later. My solution: Always respect the 10% rule. Your overall margin including all opened position should never exceed 10% of your account. If your capital is $1,000 then your max margin would be $100. Even there it is only for agressive traders. Why the 10% rule can help you to succeed? In fact, you can use it as psychological barrier. As an example, you can face the case where you have a position in loss. I identify 3 main situations: A) You position is in an important loss. You are tempted to average down the entry price of the position by adding a new one on the same pair. Clearly the badest behavior. With the max margin at 10% you cannot add multiple positions without breaking the rule. It is your alert. B) You can also let the position run in loss without doing anything. Your stop loss? Psychologically, you are not able to handle such a loss so you pray for the market to reverse. It is possible depending of the fundamentals and technical configuration, if a huge support is broken, better worth closing the position. Letting the position run is risky but clearly much more acceptable than the A situation. C) Your position is in loss but you use a stop loss. The stop is hit but you accept this loss and look for a better opportunity to enter in the market again. Ideally on a support or a resistance. In definitive, being in margin call should warn you that your trading behavior is dangerous in a medium to long run. The probability for you to crash your acccount sooner or later is damn high.
Education
by Traderscope
1
More Downside On EURUSD After A BounceOn February 16th EURUSD found a top and since then has been trading strongly to the downside, especially from March highs when pair turned lower into a new five-wave impulsive reaction. An impulse is a five-wave development that indicates the direction of the trend and in our case this is to the bearish side. Now as we look closer, we can see price specifically in sub-wave 3 approaching some Fibonacci levels here around 1.1823/1.174 region, where bearish run can slow down and a new temporary pullback as wave 4 can start to unfold. If the pullback is really coming into play soon, then later price may rise towards the lower side of the channel line, which can in many cases react as a resistance, so be aware of a new turn down from around 1.1960/1.2030. Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
Education
by ew-forecast
6
3] How to use Traders Dynamic Index and Complementary OverlayXtremePhaser = Thin Cyan line HighPhaser = Thin Blue line HighMBL = Thin Orange line Phaser = Thick Blue line Midline = Thick Black line & others. Just like the traditional use of moving averages, HighPhaser and XtremePhaser allows for higher time frame trend (by their nearness and crossover) to be seen and recognized by traders allowing them to respect market's condition to not imply what is not true and in the end 'lose it all'. It (TDI-CO) allows of course to show support and resistance. It also allows for support/resistance breakout to be evidenced as seen in 15 min chart with price being squeezed by Phaser (&Midline) and XtremePhaser. How to to trade retracements: Retracements come with the expectation of a trend continuation, therefore the safest trade is to continue trend not countertrend-trading with the pullback. Component lines aid in recognizing when the market is in a pullback as seen in image. HighMBL overlay did not allow price to rise any higher. Phaser and HigherMBL formed a channel because of their slope downward, but the importance of their steepness is major, as it should determine how you should trade. In summary you should trade in same steepened direction as the thick blue and thin orange line, but a breakout of a flat highLine is more promising for the adept swing traders.
Education
by YardleyRosette
What's Geopolitics and Ponzi schemes got to do with you?I focus more on historical factors in brief overview in the video. There is an emerging perception that both the EURO and the US Dollar a Ponzi schemes of sorts. How can the US Dollar which is backed by 'thin air' have come to dominate the world. What is a Ponzi scheme? Are there similar elements in both the EURO and the USD? Look and you may see. Geopolitics affects these two. But I'm not really going into the 'fundamental analysis' of this at any deep level, at all. Demand for a currency is influenced by international trade which then is connected to stock markets. I'm not able to dig deeply into the complex interactive connections here. To be clear, I separate Geopolitics from 'Politricks' which I blogged about before. I'm saying that we need to be aware of Geopolitics in the higher time frames like 1D charts. That's not just about currencies - it's also about stock markets. Stuff that may be of interest: A Ponzi Scheme Special Interview Noam Chomsky 2018 A deeper understanding of money from a global pespective - and potential complications, by Yanis Varoufakis The Monetary System Explained - how the Federal Reserve works (or not). Century of Enslavement: The History of The Federal Reserve
Education
by Captain_Walker
End of day action on EURUSD and US30In this video I look at an interesting compression on the 15 min EURUSD and quickly review a critical price position on the US30. This follows up from my other videos. A strong EURO is not great for the Ger30, so if it strengthens around now, there could be more bearish pressure on the DAX. The DAX tends to rule the worlds markets and has not suffered as serious corrections as the US30, as yet. I'm not saying I'm right about any of these positions and how I assess them. The important things I think is to share thoughts and learn from others. I'm always happy to learn a different way, see a different perspective, and to stand corrected if I've made glaring errors. Best wishes Walker.
FX:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
How it's all connected upIn this video I explore how the US Dollar strength affects stock markets and the EURUSD. When I was very new to trading I had not known about all this - and late in the game I wished that somebody would have told me sooner. Shorter term bounces of the US dollar can cause traders to exit positions too soon. Around this time day traders could find that spikes in the US dollar causes them to be bounced out of trades that are long or short on other instruments. Volatility is what we need in trading, but there is a kind of love-hate relationship with it.
FX:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
EURUSD range-in-range effectGood morning, today i checked out the four-hour-chart and saw that range-in-range effect which we can see many time while the market is running sideways. This effect always has a big range, a small range in between that big range and a neutral area. Those three levels are mostly decisive for the next movement. What does it mean in this case? The market is currently in that neutral area. At this level i am not doing any trades since it is completely open whether it goes long or short. Thats why i am just spectating the market and wait for the moment when the market is leaving this area. If it leaves the area long i will focus at long trades only if it leaves short i will focus on short trades only of course. Whats the sense of it? The neutral area is mostly in the middle of the big and the small range. We know that we have a Ping-Pong-Game inside a range. So if the market is leaving this neutral area long/short it will mostly test the upper or lower range line. For example : if the market leaves the neutral area to the long side I could plan long trades with a target the range line from the small range. The small range lines will decide if the market entries the upper range or the lower range area. Thats why you can see that small range also as a "neutral area" regarding the big range if you only want to focus on trade with big range targets. Summary : i will wait for a break out of the neutral area to find possible long/short entries.
Education
by StefanKassing
2
Patience vs TradingPatience is a great quality in trading. Why ? Simply because it helps you not ceeding to impulsivity and it helps you decreasing mistakes. Patience in trading is similar to patience in poker. A good poker player will wait hours to get the best hand possible. He will wait for a very good pair like AA or KK instead of risking losing with weak pair like 44 or 66. Of course having AA or KK is not a guarantee of winning but you get a much higher probability to do so. In trading you face the same problematic. Sometimes the market doesn't give you anything, no info, no pattern. In this case, you should close your laptop and do something else. Really !!! The more you trade, the more you are exposed to make big mistakes. I used to make scalping for a time but I quickly realized that it was not for me. Staying all day in front of a laptop waiting for an opportunity, no, many opportunities to get 2 to 10 pips only. Some traders are very good scalpers but I am not. I am a swing and day trader. I look for 30 to 20,00 pips on each trade. You really need patience to get 1000 pips profit ! And obviously I have a dedicated account for this kind of investment. Why ? Because, after having made 100 pips, the temptation is huge to take my profit and close the trade. On this account you only have very long term trades where potential is 500 to 20,000 pips ! Patience is also a quality when you do not see any opportunity on the market. You are frustrated, you want to feel the adrenaline of trading. Calm down, stay cold. The market always gives opportunity, It will happen very soon trust me but at this moment, use this time to improve your skills, reading, learning, analysing or simply deconnecting totally from trading. Think how you feel good without the stress of a losing position when you are always looking after your smartphone to check the price. Be patient, wait for the optimal opportunity wen you can sell high and buy low. The opportunity which gives you the best risk-reward. Patience vs trading ? No ! Patience = Trading !
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Traderscope
6
5 Natural Reactions To Failure In Trading5 natural reactions to failure in trading It could be very useful to understand your natural behavior when you are faced to failure in trading. All of us are facing losses, sometimes these losses can be huge when come a krach or a bad choices. The situation in itself will not determine the reaction of the trader. It is his personality, his history facing which will determine it. 1. Anger Being anger is a natural feeling. It is the direct consequence of a loss. But you are not anger about the loss itself but about the causes which led to this loss. In fact, before taking this position, you knew that it was not a good idea or even a good timing maybe because: - The lot size was too big - There was a big data released 1 hour later - You moved the stop loss - You bought too high - You sold too low - ... You knew it but you made it ! Why ? Not enough patience ? not enough discipline ? You need to analyse it and correct this behavior. The anger must give you the opportunity to learn about the cause of it. Most of traders are not able to coldly analyse the causes, It not that easy. It's a fight against oneself. Don't be wrong. Losing a trade in trading is inevitable. It is the way of losing that is avoidable. Risking all its capital on one trade and get angry against everybody around you while it is you who accumulated mistakes, is this really honest? You are the only responsible for your loss and you must learn from it. You must learn to lose and you must learn to lose well. 2. Runnning out on his responsabilies When you lose a trade, the good behavior is to analyse the reason of the fail. Why did this trade go wrong ? Some of you may be very passive on a fail. Ok I lost this one but the next one will be in success, then the next one is a fail and the next one too and the next too etc etc. Maybe your strategy is not good. You should question yourself after each losing trade. 3. Guilt feeling This feeling is human and totally normal ! You blame yourself when you give in to your impulsiveness, when your reasoning is wrong or when your behavior has pushed you to failure. You had the choice to act another way. You had the choice not taking this trade or managing it another way. You know it and it is a good thing. Now assume it ! Yes you made a mistake but how will you act to change the behavior which led to all this ? This is the most important point. Be responsible of your choices and be responsible of your acts but don't keep blame yourself constantly. Try to improve yourself everytime, everyday. 4. Sadness Don't let sadness affect you ! Sadness is a sign of weakness. Weakness is the synonyme of KO. It is really dificult to get up back from this feeling. Sometime it lead to depression. This is the case when a trader loses everything after a krach or bad choices. Many of you could have experienced this already. If you are in this situation, ask for help. Sometimes it could be an humiliating situation. Be strong ! You can ask for advice if necessary. It is important for you to get out of this situation. 5. Giving up Trading is not that easy because psychology is an important part of sucess. Being a successful trader means that you handle 3 key elements : - Strategy (You improve it everyday) - Discipline (You apply a strict money management, you follow it no matter what happens) - Psychology (You are psychologically strong, you handle your emotions) Some people cannot assume all of this. If you tried but you failed, maybe it is not for you. Some people are not able to be good in trading. Accept it, give up and move on. --- All these natural reactions to failure can be overcome by taking a step back on the event. Put into perspective, bring nuance, change its point of view; the acceptance of failure requires a real effort whic is essential in trading
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Traderscope
4
The Escalation Of Failure In TradingThe escalation of failure in trading ! : 5 reasons why most of traders lose their money ! Reason 1 / Step 1 : The "I DON'T ACCEPT LOSING" syndrom Reason 2 / Step 2 : The "I MOVE MY STOP LOSS" temptation Reason 3 / Step 3 : The "AVERAGE DOWN" disease Reason 4 / Step 4 : The "RISK EVERYTHING" game Reason 5 / Step 5 : The "I SWEAR IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN" lie to yourself Let me tell you the story of JOE the gambler : Joe creates an account with $1,000 with a broker offering a x500 leverage. Virtually, Joe could invest almost $500,000 on the market ! Amazing ! Joe thinks that he is a reasonable investor and start investing with 0.05 lot. Joe creates an account with $1,000 with a broker offering a x500 leverage. Virtually Joe could invest almost $500,000 on the market ! Amazing ! So Joe has $1,000 on his account. He has a very good investment strategy which has worked very well for 1 month on demo account. Joe's projections gives $250 profit in one month. It is time now to pass on real account. Joe has read many articles about money management and joe wants to risk only 3% of its capital on each trade. Joe's strategy is to take trades only if a combination of several indicators give the same signal. Joe always use stop loss and take profit. The plan is the plan no matter what ! Right ?! Joe bought 0.05 lot on EURUSD at 1.2200 with a SL at 1.2150. He thinks that the price will increase from 100 pips at least in the next hours to reach 1.23. Reason 1 / Step 1 : The "I DON'T ACCEPT LOSING" syndrom Problem, the price falls from 40 pips. Joe starts panicking. Reason 2 / Step 2 : The "I MOVE MY STOP LOSS" temptation Joe decides to move the SL from 50 to 100 pips at 1.21. Reason 3 / Step 3 : The "AVERAGE DOWN" disease Problem, the market decides to go down again and the position shows a 80 pips floating loss. Joe decides to move the SL from 100 pips to 150 pips at 1.2050 and take a new position of 0.05 lot on EURUSD at 1.2120 with a SL at 1.2050. Problem, the market continues its fall and the price displays 1.2070. Joe thinks OK. I move my SL from 1.2050 to 1.1950. It gives more margin to let breathe the market and Joe takes a third position of 0.05 lot at 1.2050 with a SL at 1.1950. The average price is now 1.2123. Problem, the next days the market starts a range between 1.20 and 1.21 and Joe wants absolutely to leave the overall position in profit. Pride ! Joe loses patience and decides to take a new postion of 0.1 lot on EURUSD at 1.2070. The average price is now 1.2102. Joe is stressed and tired of this situation and decides to put an overall TP at 1.2120. The probability to hit the TP is high. Finally the market goes up and hit the TP during the night and when Joe wakes up the the price on EURUSD is 1.2200. Oh my GOSH ! Joe is frustrated ! Why did I change my TP ? I missed a lot of profit on this movement !!! Joe decides to take a new trade on EURUSD at 1.2200 without SL this time because this time is the right one !!! Pride !!! Problem, the market falls from 25 pips at 1.2175. Joe is convinced that he is right so he takes a new BUY pending position at 1.2150. And now the market makes a huge falls from 1.2175 to 1.2050 during the day. Joe has now 2 positions of 0.05 lot size. At this moment, Joe decided reasonably to close all positions with losses at 1.2050. Joe lost 275 pips on these 2 hasardous trades.
Education
by Traderscope
8
The Escalade Of Failure In TradingThe escalade of failure in trading ! : 5 reasons why most of traders lose their money ! Reason 1 / Step 1 : The "I DON'T ACCEPT LOSING" syndrom Reason 2 / Step 2 : The "I MOVE MY STOP LOSS" temptation Reason 3 / Step 3 : The "AVERAGE DOWN" disease Reason 4 / Step 4 : The "RISK EVERYTHING" game Reason 5 / Step 5 : The "I SWEAR IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN" lie to yourself Let me tell you the story of JOE the gambler : Joe creates an account with $1,000 with a broker offering a x500 leverage. Virtually, Joe could invest almost $500,000 on the market ! Amazing ! Joe thinks that he is a reasonable investor and start investing with 0.05 lot. He has $1,000 on his account. He has a very good investment strategy which has worked very well for 1 month on demo account. Joe's projections gives $250 profit in one month. It is time now to pass on real account. Joe has read many articles about money management and joe wants to risk only 3% of its capital on each trade. Joe's strategy is to take trades only if a combination of several indicators give the same signal. Joe always use stop loss and take profit. The plan is the plan no matter what ! Right ?! Joe bought 0.05 lot on EURUSD at 1.2200 with a SL at 1.2150. He thinks that the price will increase from 100 pips at least in the next hours to reach 1.23. Reason 1 / Step 1 : The "I DON'T ACCEPT LOSING" syndrom Problem, the price falls from 40 pips. Joe starts panicking. Reason 2 / Step 2 : The "I MOVE MY STOP LOSS" temptation Joe decides to move the SL from 50 to 100 pips at 1.21. Reason 3 / Step 3 : The "AVERAGE DOWN" disease Problem, the market decides to go down again and the position shows a 80 pips floating loss. Joe decides to move the SL from 100 pips to 150 pips at 1.2050 and take a new position of 0.05 lot on EURUSD at 1.2120 with a SL at 1.2050. Problem, the market continues its fall and the price displays 1.2070. Joe thinks OK. I move my SL from 1.2050 to 1.1950. It gives more margin to let breathe the market and Joe takes a third position of 0.05 lot at 1.2050 with a SL at 1.1950. The average price is now 1.2123. Problem, the next days the market starts a range between 1.20 and 1.21 and Joe wants absolutely to leave the overall position in profit. Pride ! Joe loses patience and decides to take a new postion of 0.1 lot on EURUSD at 1.2070. The average price is now 1.2102. Joe is stressed and tired of this situation and decides to put an overall TP at 1.2120. The probability to hit the TP is high. Finally the market goes up and hit the TP during the night and when Joe wakes up the the price on EURUSD is 1.2200. Oh my GOSH ! Joe is frustrated ! Why did I change my TP ? I missed a lot of profit on this movement !!! Joe decides to take a new trade on EURUSD at 1.2200 without SL this time because this time is the right one !!! Pride !!! Problem, the market falls from 25 pips at 1.2175. Joe is convinced that he is right so he takes a new BUY pending position at 1.2150. And now the market makes a huge falls from 1.2175 to 1.2050 during the day. Joe has now 2 positions of 0.05 lot size. At this moment, Joe decided reasonably to close all positions with losses at 1.2050. Joe lost 275 pips on these 2 hasardous trades.
Education
by Traderscope
The Escalade Of Failure In TradingThe escalade of failure in trading ! : 5 reasons why most of traders lose their money ! Reason 1 / Step 1 : The "I DON'T ACCEPT LOSING" syndrom Reason 2 / Step 2 : The "I MOVE MY STOP LOSS" temptation Reason 3 / Step 3 : The "AVERAGE DOWN" disease Reason 4 / Step 4 : The "RISK EVERYTHING" game Reason 5 / Step 5 : The "I SWEAR IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN" lie to yourself Let me tell you the story of JOE the gambler : Joe creates an account with $1,000 with a broker offering a x500 leverage. Virtually, Joe could invest almost $500,000 on the market ! Amazing ! Joe thinks that he is a reasonable investor and start investing with 0.05 lot. Joe creates an account with $1,000 with a broker offering a x500 leverage. Virtually Joe could invest almost $500,000 on the market ! Amazing ! So Joe has $1,000 on his account. He has a very good investment strategy which has worked very well for 1 month on demo account. Joe's projections gives $250 profit in one month. It is time now to pass on real account. Joe has read many articles about money management and joe wants to risk only 3% of its capital on each trade. Joe's strategy is to take trades only if a combination of several indicators give the same signal. Joe always use stop loss and take profit. The plan is the plan no matter what ! Right ?! Joe bought 0.05 lot on EURUSD at 1.2200 with a SL at 1.2150. He thinks that the price will increase from 100 pips at least in the next hours to reach 1.23. Reason 1 / Step 1 : The "I DON'T ACCEPT LOSING" syndrom Problem, the price falls from 40 pips. Joe starts panicking. Reason 2 / Step 2 : The "I MOVE MY STOP LOSS" temptation Joe decides to move the SL from 50 to 100 pips at 1.21. Reason 3 / Step 3 : The "AVERAGE DOWN" disease Problem, the market decides to go down again and the position shows a 80 pips floating loss. Joe decides to move the SL from 100 pips to 150 pips at 1.2050 and take a new position of 0.05 lot on EURUSD at 1.2120 with a SL at 1.2050. Problem, the market continues its fall and the price displays 1.2070. Joe thinks OK. I move my SL from 1.2050 to 1.1950. It gives more margin to let breathe the market and Joe takes a third position of 0.05 lot at 1.2050 with a SL at 1.1950. The average price is now 1.2123. Problem, the next days the market starts a range between 1.20 and 1.21 and Joe wants absolutely to leave the overall position in profit. Pride ! Joe loses patience and decides to take a new postion of 0.1 lot on EURUSD at 1.2070. The average price is now 1.2102. Joe is stressed and tired of this situation and decides to put an overall TP at 1.2120. The probability to hit the TP is high. Finally the market goes up and hit the TP during the night and when Joe wakes up the the price on EURUSD is 1.2200. Oh my GOSH ! Joe is frustrated ! Why did I change my TP ? I missed a lot of profit on this movement !!! Joe decides to take a new trade on EURUSD at 1.2200 without SL this time because this time is the right one !!! Pride !!! Problem, the market falls from 25 pips at 1.2175. Joe is convinced that he is right so he takes a new BUY pending position at 1.2150. And now the market makes a huge falls from 1.2175 to 1.2050 during the day. Joe has now 2 positions of 0.05 lot size. At this moment, Joe decided reasonably to close all positions with losses at 1.2050. Joe lost 275 pips on these 2 hasardous trades.
Education
by Traderscope
1
The Power of Stop Loss and Risk/Reward in tradingKeep this in mind. Only one trade without stop loss can burn your capital. A stop loss is an indispensable tool allowing you to limit your losses. It is also a level from which you feel that your scenario will not happen anymore. It is mandatory on every position if you want to keep your money safe. See it like an insurance policy. In case the trade is going wrong, you can be sure that a large part of your capital will be safe. You just need to know how to place your stop. It also allows you to sleep peacefully because a stop loss deletes the stress and allows you doing activities other than trading. You don’t need to monitor your trade every 10 minutes. The less you monitor your trade the less you risk to make mistakes. Some people will say that stop loss decreases the winning ratio. Many traders argue to get 90% to 100% of winning trades. Hmmm why not but do they use stop loss? If yes what is their risk/reward ratio? How to place and manage your stop loss? Place your stop loss according to the market price level. It must be placed above or below a key level such as a support, a resistance or a higher/lower. Don't place your stop loss on a support, resistance or higher/lower. It is there that you should place your entry point! Respect the Risk/Reward ratio. A RR of 2 or more is a key of success in trading. I give you more details below. Take into account the volatility of the asset. The more volatile an asset is, the greater is the risk of seeing your stop loss hit on a volatility movement. On a volatile asset, you need to further your stop loss level. This element must be taken into account especially if you carry out long term trades, on daily, weekly or monthly timeframes. Never move your stop if the the trade goes wrong! The only context allowing you moving your stop is if the market goes right in order to secure your profit. In this case you can move your stop to the breakeven point (Entry) or more to ensure some profit. The Risk/Reward ratio, the secret of success What is the Risk/Reward ratio or RR ? The RR ratio is the difference between the potential loss and the potential profit of your trade. You simply divide the pips number you expect to win by the pips number you expect to lose. Assume that you place an order with a TP at 50 pips and a SL at 100 pips then your RR ratio will be 0.5 which means that you will need to win 2 trades to recover the loss of 1 trade. Now assume that you place an order with a TP of 100 pips and a SL of 50 pips then your RR will be 2 which means that you will need to win only 1 trade to recover the loss of 2 trades. Never take a trade if your risk/reward ratio is below 1. A RR of 2 and more is one of the key to become successful in trading on a long run. Imagine the insane performance it would be, if every trade you make had a RR of 2 with 70% of winning trades! Hope these little tricks will help you improve your trading.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Traderscope
19
Learning how USD corrolates with non-USD currencies. EURCADMy CURRENT definition of RISK. RISK ON USD down, moving XXX/USD currencies up and USD/XXX currencies down. or RISK OFF USD up, moving XXX/USD currencies down and USD/XXX currencies up. Mid term (3 wks-6mo) I lean bias towards 2018 trading in RISK ON mode. Which means EURUSD is a buy mid-term. USDCAD is a sell mid-term. In the last several months we have been in RISK ON mode with EURUSD in a obvious uptrend. I've noticed EURCAD trends UP when we are risk on. So mid-term we cannot expect to short EURCAD because we know the underlying currencies are in up trends. Short term I do believe there is room for a pullback to the 1.53 or 1.52 levels coupled with a pullback in EURUSD. But ultimately I will be looking to trade EURCAD higher in months to come. Full Disclaimer: This is a test I'm running to better understand how correlations among two USD pegged pairs perform when pegged against each other. I will be referencing both EURUSD and USDCAD often. EURUSD is perfectly 1-1 inversely correlated with USD. This is because the EURUSD is the strongest correlated currency to the USD in the world and ultimately controls EURCAD by nature. Trade between the United States and the European Union is over half of USD transactions so EURO's are the most strongly correlated out of all other currencies. That being said when I'm looking at the price of EURUSD, I'm actually reflecting on the price of USD if that makes any sense. EURUSD is up when USD is down BECAUSE USD is down! I track USD with the US Dollar index. Ticker DXY. If you found this useful or thoughtful Likes/Comments/Follows are much appreciated! Disclaimer: Oanda data shown. Material is educational only. Trade at your own risk! and ultimately controls EURCAD by nature
Education
by UnknownUnicorn981629
How to filter noise out of Technicals and Fundamentals part 1Part 1 Technical If you are new like me you probably have tons of conflicting information bombarding you at all times. I have come up with a method of filtering the noise i would like to share. * Technical noise filtering step 1: Renko blocks. Renko blocks are simple they do not measure time. Renko blocks measure movements in price (example: 1 block = 10 pips if price moves 20 pips down you get a block down if price moves 10 pips up you get another block up). you can google Renko block plugin's they are available for most platforms free. step 2: Combine your Renko chart with your favorite indicators. (I like a 6 period MA that paints red if pointed down and blue if up with a donchian line for up and down trend filtering.) step 3: compare larger size Renko blocks to smaller and scale in. For example: 1: I look at 200 pip Renko Blocks for the direction is should be looking to go buy or sell wise. 2: If there is a string of Blocks up the odds are in favor of another block going up the odds increase the more blocks in a row we get. 3: The objective is to buy low sell high and vise versa ergo we need to find the bottom of our 200 pip Ranko block to do this we make another Renko chart of 20 pip Renko Blocks. 4:Compare your Renko charts noting how long the tails on the previous 200 pip Renko blocks going up were. 5:Look at the at the 20 pip Renko block charts and try to find out where the Bottom of the tail on the 200 pip Renko box might go. 6:We are looking to buy into a trend not "predict" a trend. wait for a good dip then buy as it trends up. lets use an Example EUR/USD Technical analysis example 1/27/2018 1: i67.tinypic.com This 200 pip Renko chart depicts dates from the European debt crisis downtrend in 2014 to the current uptrend. as we can see from the 200 pip Renko Boxes the EUR/USD is clearly going up. The objective is to place a buy order at a point where the price is not likely to retrace to. As we can see the uptrend is very strong the up boxes have small tails or none at all. 2: lets open a chart with smaller Renko boxes for this example i am going to use 20 pip Renko Boxes. i65.tinypic.com This chart is from dates Dec 28th 2017 to Jan 24 2018 As we can see from this 20 pip Renko block chart the 200 pip up blocks form a lot like stairs when we look inside them. They do this because the market only seems to do one of 2 things 1: consolidation (a point in time where entering the market either long or short is likely to lose) 2: Trend (a point in time where entering the market has a higher probability of going in the same direction) As someone new to Forex I like to think about consolidation zones as graveyards because they are where all my trades go to die ;) The term "graveyard" will now refer to consolidation zones for effect. So we want to get on the trend and avoid the graveyard how do we know when we are out of the graveyard? The best answer is we don't. The second answer is count the number of whipsaws that happened before the last few up trends and average them. (A whipsaw is a high and low point they tend to gravitate right into your stop loss before heading right into your take profit they are the main characteristic of a graveyard.) Lets average the Whipsaw characteristics for the current EUR/USD 1/27/2018 as we can see from our 20 pip chart we usually get 5 Whipsaws per graveyard. They usually retrace to about half the uptrend but few break back above the uptrend before whipsawing down again so we can be somewhat safe to say we are out of the graveyard and into the trend if: *we had a few whipsaws *the price retraced down half the previous uptrend *the price is now above the uptrend Part 2
Education
by malikiie
How to filter noise out of Technicals and Fundamentals part 2 Part 2 Fundamental noise filtering I place far more weight on fundamental analysis then technical. At first I thought it was useless as half the news or analysts would say one thing and the other half would say the opposite. the trick is to only look at sources that can reliably and logically be shown to have a impact on the market. Who has an impact on the market: 1: Speculators (yep just speculators not the news or the actual state of an economy) while that statement is not exactly true it seems to be a reliable self fulfilling prophecy lets take a look at large speculators positions from 2002 until 2018 compared to a bar chart. i65.tinypic.com this picture shows the weekly CFTC commitment of traders reports from 2002 to 2018 correlated into a line chart under a corresponding bar chart. The arrow in the picture points to a turning point where the speculators (green line) went from net short to net long. what happened? The market shot up like a rocket. outside of consolidation periods the market just about always drops or gains right after this happens just looking at the EUR it ALWAYS marks the end of a trend without fail. Its almost eerie how accurate the CFTC comittment of traders reports are at predicting trend changes. where do we get the COT report and how do we use it? Step 1: go to www.cftc.gov step 2: click on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and scroll past the butter, cows and logs to the EURO FX i67.tinypic.com step 3: look at the important parts of the EURO FX data. i67.tinypic.com 1: the date of reported positions 2:Non-Commercials (people investing to make money. These are the people who have so much money in positions they have to report it to the CFTC weekly. people and company's with that kind of money have far more resources to base their decisions off of then me and if most of them think in one direction then odds are most of them are right. As we can see on the chart in the picture most of them went net short not during but before the euro crashed in 2014.) 3: On the left long positions on the right short positions. (far more long then short this is a definite uptrend.) 4: changes from last week. very very important for positioning in immediate furtue. For example on the 9th we got this report i66.tinypic.com what happened directly after was an uptrend. look for changes in net long and short positions. An increase in net long from last week or a decrease in net short from last week will likely predict an uptrend in a day or 2. sometimes the trend already happened by the time you get the report. The COT report is the only fundamental analysis I use. Why: 1. conflict of interest. most of the large news company's are owned by banks ergo any information I gather based on news is biased. 2. Education I grew up on fishing boats in Alaska and currently drive a forklift all day. forming a accurate opinion based on economic data on my own is beyond my level of education. Lets recognize our weak points and not pretend we can be on par with someone who has spent years in college for economics. 3. Retail traders are 90% wrong and I am a retail trader lets take a quick look at how Retail traders net positions look. www.oanda.com as we can see with the EUR/USD 63% of retail traders are trying to short a market that has been going up for months non-stop and they have been for months its usually worse then 63% too lul.
Education
by malikiie