Risk managementSome setups are not as fluid and require some risk management.
{Averaging down/up, martingale or compounding }.
Compounding with the same position size works best on constant exits( gives less exposure) after pre-determined extension.
Martingale & averaging on 'fast paced moving exits' .
Over all same position size gives better exposure.
These are just thoughts and maybe flawed from another persons point of view, just the same way someone can be long the other short.
Some setup
EURUSD-2
BRUTAL: US vs EU stock market comparison.This is no news to anyone who follows the stock market but this is just to put it in perspective how bad the EU is doing.
The euro is lagging, getting close to parity with the dollar and the stock market in Europe has gone nowhere for decades.
If you took all your money out of the Eurostoxx in '07 and put it in the S&P you would have had 3,5 times as much if you had held on.
You would have doubled your money even if you made the decision at the worst point prior to this decade.
The EU is a sinking ship and rapidly declining to 2nd world economic minipower.
Megalomaniacs try to desperately band Europe together with stitches claiming to make the EU relevant on the global stage.
Well they are failing, meanwhile Australia, New Zealand, Israel, Norway, South Korea and many others are proving that you do not need to be big to grow fast.
The election is in May, throw the bums out.
Absolute failure.
take a look at how a pin bar can indicate a possible downtrendIn the chart above,
we have a bullish pin bar that formed on the USDJPY weekly chart.
.This pin bar formed at a previous resistance level,
which is now acting as support.
This price action signal tells us that the market is likely to see higher ground in the weeks ahead.
"BUT" instead of trading the weekly time frame,
we can move to the daily chart and watch for bullish price action.
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forexTrdr Sunday Setups: EURUSD ALL EYES ON THE PRIZE.. 100DMAHi all and welcome to our Sunday Setups a new technical analysis piece where we are looking to showcase our work and highlight our 20 years of professional trading experience at the worlds best Investment Banks.
Our aim is to keep analysis simple so that anyone can follow and learn from our work and hopefully our past performance highlights why we are different.
Interested in finding out more? Head over to our profile page and please give us a follow
Please comment and leave feedback- we will be bringing our analysis via video soon
First on the agenda is EURUSD- as per chart we have a descending trendline dating back to September, what we are looking for here is a potential retest of the 100 day moving average (1.1367) before a pull back to year to date lows and a move to 1.1130 area over the next few weeks. Risk is we have a break out to the upside and escape out of the descending trendline towards 1.142 area. Countering that however, from tech perspective, the pair is at the top of the overbought range on RSI (bottom chart).
From fundamental side European growth continues to come in at the lower end of recent performance and the ECB has announced further stimulus through the extension of TLTRO- a form of cheap funding to the banking sector. US continues to storm ahead on growth and looks to have bottomed out in January- last weeks NFP looks nothing more than a fluke number which occurs from time to time. This week we have Fed meeting on Wednesday where we expect to hear comments around growth having bottomed out at start of year and a pickup in economic activity in line with what we are seeing in other forward looking indicators and Chinese stimulus.
Week Ahead
Tuesday 19th March:
German ZEW Survey - very low impact
US Factory Orders & Durable goods - low impact
Wednesday 20th March:
Fed Meeting - potential for high impact
Thursday 21st March:
European consumer confidence - low impact
Trend :
Descending trendline since the high on 24th September
Series of lower highs and lower lows since start of 2019
Tech levels:
Major keys to upside:
1.1367 the 100 day moving average and around the top of the descending trendline from September
1.1418 February high
Major keys to downside:
1.1290 January low
1.1235 February low
1.1187, 61.8% retracement of 2017 low to 2018 high
1.1177, YTD low
EURUSD Quick Short Trade *LEARN TO TRADE MARKET GAPS*I have recently had a lot of success trading the weekend market gaps forming on a few major FX currency pairs so I thought I would show you another example and explain it in more detail.
Market gaps most commonly occur when price moves quicker than the market or, in the case of weekends, when the market is closed. Things happen in the market over the weekend so when Sunday evening trading opens, price has normally moved or "gapped" away from the close price on Friday.
I don't trade every gap I see in the market and that is because of how the gap forms as part of the prevailing trend that is showing. I always try to trade with the trend and use market gaps as a discounted way of entering into a normal trend following trade.
This example is on EURUSD.
The market gaps upon opening and is now around 20 pips higher than the close price on Friday. This is good because the price has gapped up when I have the bearish trend marked on the chart with the lower highs and bearish TL. A gap up means I can enter short and be onside with the current bearish trend. This seriously helps with profitability and success in the long term.
My confluences for taking this trade are:
- RSI showing over bought.
- Price is around daily pivot level.
- Bearish trendline
- Lower highs and lows.
I always place my Stoploss 10 pips above the current high when taking my pivot trades and I have used this same method for these quick gap trades.
Profit Targets:
My TP1 is always set to the Friday close price. This means the gap has been fulfilled.
TP2 is set at the daily S1 level. This is taken from my day trading strategy because if there is a lot of momentum then it makes sense to ride it out for more profit.
TP3 is set at the daily S2 level if there is still enough bearish momentum to make it there.
R:R Ratios:
- If price makes it to TP1 then that is a very simple 2:1 trade.
- TP2 would make the trade a 4:1 trade.
- TP3 would make this trade over 6:1 R:R which is crazy but sometimes possible if there enough momentum in the markets.
Thanks for reading and I hope this helps at least a few of you to start spotting and trading market gaps. They really are very good to help you get a head start on the week ahead and lock in a few % profit before Monday has even began!
EURUSD SELLTechnical Analysis:
-Price is in a 4h Price Reversal Zone
-30 Min heiken ashi candles have many wicks to the upside and had a bearish momentum shift to the downside
-4h candles look like we are slowing down as well
-1h heiken ashi shows slow in momentum and just printed a bearish candle
-SL is right above the 4h zone
-TP 1 & 2 are at zones where price has strong bullish pushes from
EURUSD [1-3 days view]This trade was triggered earlier this week. However, I chose not to publish it as it was a low probability trade for me at that time for the following reasons:
Market was only testing the ascending trendline support (now resistance)
Normally I would wait for a pullback to retest the trendline before entering to short
Market was also forming a Head & Shoulders reversal pattern however at trade time, it was still not confirmed.
I choose to publish this trade now because I believe it presents a very strong case of how a trade can really move in your direction when multiple technical elements show confluence to provide that confirmation despite the low conviction I had.
1. Market was forming a Head & Shoulders reversal pattern
2. Market broke below the ascending trendline support (now resistance).
3. At the same time, market also had one candle close just below the EMA (13). This EMA as noted in the past provided quite a good support/resistance where price reacted above and below it.
4. MACD momentum indicator at trade execution crossed below 0% and entered bearish territory. The MACD and signal line also showed strong downwards momentum.
5. Everytime price broke below an ascending trendline support (turned resistance), market will make a strong and sustained downwards push. This happened at the 2nd week of Jan 2019 and once more at the start of Feb 2019. Now at the start of March 2019, we see this pattern repeated again.
This is a quite a beautiful example of how technical analysis can be a very powerful skill to have for any market participant. Reach out to me to find out more!
Correlation Trading EUR/USD/ DAX/ OIL/ GOLDHey guys,
after a time of inactivity I"m back.
Today I show you how you can trade EUR/USD with the help of correlations.
You can see in the chart positive correlations and negative correlations.
Be careful the arrows on the chart are no trend direction.
If for example Oil change its direction the trend direction is turned.
But be careful with long term-trends and short- therm trend.
Always be aware of your timeframe.
(4h is short therm trading)
Hope I could be informative for you guys
The Week Ahead: EURUSDThe 0.618 retracement level held and the price broke the Parabolic SAR levels as discussed last week.
The market played out with Scenario A and continued to sell off towards the 1.3000 level. This week we have NFP data released which will give the EURUSD a push.
Scenario A: Continued strength in the USD could see the market move lower than 1.3000 and head towards to the structure low of 1.1235. For it to get to that level, it must also trade lower than it's support level at 1.1250 which has been held there since November 2018. Should it continue further, then we are looking at the 1.1188 and 1.1129 levels.
Scenario B: Should momentum change and Euro strengthens then we could see two key support areas the lower 0.618 retracement level and the 1.1250 support. If the market moves lower then we will look out for a retracement from these areas. Should Scenario B playout then it is reasonable to predict that price levels of 1.1340 would be tested as a resistance level.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation, buy/sell signal, or advice in any format.
Correlation EURUSD VS. USDCHFHere is my two yestarday´s levels from my Members area. ( Both ended up in profit )
Let me explain my how correlation between EURUSD and USDCHF works and how you can look at the charts.
EURUSD and USDCHF are negatively correlated (correlation almost -100%). If USDCHF falls, then EURUSD should rise. If EURUSD rises, USDCHF should fall.
This means that in similar areas there will be similar levels for trade.
HOW THIS CAN HELP ME IN TRADING?
If you consider some price level for trade make sure that is visible on other pair too... If will be significant area for long on EURUSD, make sure that there is a significant area for short trade on USDCHF too!
If there is, then you will be more likely to have a successful trade.
Happy trading
Dale
The Week Ahead - EURUSDThe week ahead looks positive for the EURO as Friday's close saw a Hammer Candlestick form on the support level generated from June 2017.
Near term, fib levels suggest that we will see some stalling or reversals between the 38.2% (1.1344) and 61.8% (1.1411) levels. Should we see price continue to rise opportunity lies ahead to run the course to the 100% level, 1.1518. Should it also break the near term resistance level at 1.1455.
Conversely, if the 38.2% and 61.8% levels hold and a retrace begins, breaking the June 2017 support level could see price action taking it to roughly 1.1184 to 1.1123 respectively.
Fundamental factors to include in these scenarios:
ECONOMIC DATA FLOW:
Tuesday: German ZEW Economic Statement
Wednesday: German PPI, US FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday: German Final CPI, French Final CPI, French PMIs, German PMIs, Eurozone PMIs
Friday: Draghi Speaks
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation, buy/sell signal, or advice in any format.
Old Friends Meet AgainHere we have 3 different timeframes open ( 1D, 1W and 1M ) On the same pairing EUR USD, each chart has the same trend line ( TL ) and same support level marked on them, You can see how important it is to put these level on your chart and keep them there because if you look at the 1W chart you can see that price respected our support line in 2003 then fast-forward a few years price came back down and used this same level as really strong support in 2015, 2016 + 2017.
Also you can see our blue TL on the 1W chart, Price respected this in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2014 and 2018.... Come on tell me I'm talking s#it.
So go away and locate these important levels and TLs and I promise you will make money.