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Oscillators

Example of Conditions for Starting Trading Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- I will publish in advance due to an external schedule tomorrow. Accordingly, I will take time to provide additional explanations on the ideas published today. ---------------------------------------- I will talk about the basis for indicating the direction of progress shown in the chart above. In order to differentiate from other people's analyses, I am trying to explain the basis for indicating the support and resistance points or sections on the chart. I think that if you understand why those points and sections were set, you will eventually be able to understand them without having to read the explanation all the way through. For this, more support and resistance points are needed. This is because we can select the volatility period by additionally drawing the trend line. However, since all of these processes are displayed on the chart, there are many complaints that the chart is messy and confusing, so we are trying to reduce them as much as possible. Therefore, there are cases where the chart is displayed in two versions. The chart below is a chart that shows many support and resistance points and draws a trend line to select the volatility period. Therefore, since the support and resistance points may be displayed differently, it is recommended that you refer to the points or sections that I have written. - The conditions for starting a transaction are simpler than they look. However, when these conditions are met, the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts must be displayed. Therefore, even if the conditions for starting a transaction are met, if the support and resistance points are not displayed at the corresponding price, you cannot start a transaction. Please read this carefully and thank you. - (It would be good to see this as an example of how to find the conditions that fit you and how to utilize them.) Conditions for starting a transaction are 1. Buying time conditions - When the StochRSI indicator rises in the oversold range and maintains the state of StochRSI > StochRSI EMA - When the BW indicator forms a horizontal line at the lowest point (0) - When the OBV indicator rises below the 0 point - When the DMI indicator rises below the 0 point 2. Selling time conditions - When the StochRSI indicator falls in the overbought range and maintains the state of StochRSI < StochRSI EMA - When the BW indicator forms a horizontal line at the highest point (100) - When the OBV indicator falls above the 0 point - When the DMI indicator falls above the 0 point When the above conditions are met, check whether there is support at the support and resistance points drawn near the price. Confirmation is used to proceed with the transaction. The current price position is 60672.0-61099.25. Therefore, you can proceed with the transaction depending on whether there is support in this section. Since it is currently falling below 60672.0, there is nothing you can do in spot trading other than cutting losses. In futures trading, you can enter with a sell (SHORT) position. - It is rare for all the conditions for starting a transaction mentioned above to be met. Therefore, it is recommended to basically check whether the BW indicator forms a horizontal line at the lowest point (0) or highest point (100), and then proceed with the transaction by checking the movement of the StochRSI indicator. Also, it is recommended to select a split sell section to make a profit by calculating the fluctuation range while checking the strength of the rise or fall with OBV and DMI. - In summary of the above, Since the StochRSI indicator has not yet risen from the oversold zone and StochRSI < StochRSI EMA, it is recommended to check whether a reversal is occurring. Also, you should check whether the BW indicator has fallen to the lowest point (0) and formed a horizontal line. If the OBV and DMI indicators rise below the 0 point without meeting these conditions, you should proceed with an aggressive purchase (a transaction that requires a quick response similar to scalping or day trading). If you do not proceed with an aggressive purchase, you should wait. - It is not a good idea to enter a current sell (SHORT) position in futures trading. However, if you proceed with an aggressive transaction (scalping or day trading), you can start trading. The reason why it is not a good condition for trading is because the price is located in the 1. purchase timing condition section among the conditions for starting a transaction mentioned above. Therefore, the profit is small or you may even suffer a loss. - If you are not currently trading, I think the section where you should trade is when it rises around 61K. Before that, it is highly likely that you will not be able to purchase because it seems like it will fall further. I think this point, or the section where you actually trade, is the psychological volume profile section. This psychological volume profile section is the section where psychology applies that you must trade even now. Since this point is ultimately a low or high point, it is a section where you are likely to incur losses if you purchase. The 61K section that I mentioned earlier is a section where it is highly likely to be a low point, so it is a section where you are likely to incur losses if you cut your loss or enter a sell (SHORT) position. - If it shows resistance near 60672.0, there is a possibility that a sharp decline will occur momentarily and touch 59K and then rise. This phenomenon can be a fake or a sweep movement, so you need to be careful. In order to avoid losses from this phenomenon, auxiliary indicators are necessary. Since auxiliary indicators are lagging, they are unlikely to show large movements in sudden price fluctuations. - What I am talking about is not a method of chart analysis, but an example of how to set a standard for trading. Therefore, I hope you do not misunderstand the above as about chart analysis. Since chart analysis and trading are different, what you see on the chart is also different. In order to complement this difference, what is needed is the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts. Since charts without support and resistance points are likely to be for chart analysis, there is no need to try to find a trading point on these charts. - Have a good time. Thank you. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​Big picture It is expected that the real uptrend will start after rising above 29K. The section expected to be touched in the next bull market is 81K-95K. #BTCUSD 12M 1st: 44234.54 2nd: 61383.23 3rd: 89126.41 101875.70-106275.10 (overshooting) 4th: 134018.28 151166.97-157451.83 (overshooting) 5th: 178910.15 These are points where resistance is likely to be encountered in the future. We need to see if we can break through these points. We need to see the movement when we touch this section because I think we can create a new trend in the overshooting section. #BTCUSD 1M If the major uptrend continues until 2025, it is expected to start by creating a pull back pattern after rising to around 57014.33. 1st: 43833.05 2nd: 32992.55 -----------------
Education
by readCrypto
Chart Analysis: Establishing Trading Strategies --------------------------------- Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost" as well. Have a good day today. ------------------------------------- When you start studying charts, the first thing you learn is about candles. However, you start studying about the Open, Close, High, and Low of candles. When you start studying about the Moving Average, you start to think that you understand the charts. However, when you actually start trading with the Moving Average, you realize that nothing works properly. So, you start studying other indicators. - The above is based on my experience. When you study various charts, you may think you know them, but when you actually start trading, you realize that they don't apply at all. Where on earth did I go wrong?... What I learned after a long time is that I was wrong from the very beginning. - In other words, I realized that my subsequent chart studies were not done properly because I lacked understanding of candles. When you start studying candles, you study candles of various shapes and patterns. At this time, you should not be too obsessed with the names of candle shapes or patterns or the conditions that occur and try to memorize them. It is important to read it repeatedly several times until you can grasp the concept of the arrangements formed by the combination of candle shapes or patterns, that is, the support and resistance points. Eventually, when the candle shapes or patterns are combined, you can find the volume profile section formed around it, that is, the section where trading volume occurs. By drawing and marking the support and resistance points you find in this way on 1M, 1W, and 1D charts, you can create a trading strategy on the charts you mainly trade. That's all the experts in chart analysis say. In the end, everything is about looking at the combination of candles that make up the chart, finding the corresponding support and resistance points, and trading according to your trading strategy. A trading strategy is to create a response strategy at the corresponding support and resistance points based on the three things above: 1. Investment period 2. Investment size 3. Trading method and profit realization method However, since most books do not include trading strategies, you will only learn about the timing of trading and closing of trading using various indicators. Because of this, there are many cases where you cannot respond to the volatility that occurs after starting trading and end up losing money. Even so, it is difficult to specifically define the contents of trading strategies. This is because the investment period, investment size, and trading method are different depending on the individual's investment style. Therefore, what I can tell you is that you need to set the buy, sell, and stop loss points according to the support and resistance points obtained through chart analysis and wait for a while. Due to price volatility, you may not touch the buy, sell, and stop loss points or may move past them. You should learn how to create a trading strategy by modifying the way you respond to these things according to your investment style. - One important thing here is that you should mark the support and resistance points in advance through chart analysis before starting trading. Otherwise, if you start trading and then mark support and resistance points, psychological factors will come into play, which will likely lead to an unexpected transaction. Don't forget this, and you should practice marking support and resistance points in advance before starting a transaction. Also, you should avoid analyzing charts after listening to various articles, news, or community content. The reason is that psychological factors can come into play. - I think trading is a response to the movement of prices that fluctuate in real time. Therefore, waiting and determination are necessary. If you wait too long or do not make a decision and pass it by, there is a high possibility that you will suffer losses or make little profit, so you need something to refer to when waiting or making a decision. That is the support and resistance points I mentioned above. - However, support and resistance points alone do not solve everything. Therefore, you should add trend lines and various indicators to ask for a method of responding to price fluctuations. However, since the trend line is formed by a diagonal line, there is a lack of countermeasure strategies using the trend line. Therefore, the trend line is used to literally find out what the current trend is. - Therefore, when it deviates from the trend line, the movement at the support and resistance points is checked and the corresponding response is made. When trading with a chart consisting of the above two support and resistance points or only the trend line, there are often cases where the transaction cannot be properly conducted due to fakes or sweeps. Therefore, in order to counter these fakes or sweeps, various indicators are added to the chart. The most commonly used of these is the price moving average. Even if you add the price moving average, you realize that it is a curve, just like the trend line, and is therefore not suitable for countermeasure strategies. So, the price moving average is also used to check the trend, just like the trend line. - In that regard, the indicator I recommend is the StochRSI indicator. The default settings for the StochRSI indicator are 14, 7, 3, 3 (RSI, Stoch, K, D). The value of the Signal line (EMA) of the StochRSI indicator is 7. If the StochRSI indicator rises in the oversold zone and maintains the state of StochRSI > StochRSI EMA, it is a buying period. On the other hand, if the StochRSI indicator falls in the overbought zone and maintains the state of StochRSI < StochRSI EMA, it is a selling period. However, you should trade depending on whether there is support or resistance at the support and resistance points formed at that location. Even if there is movement in the StochRSI indicator, it is recommended not to trade if you do not have support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts. The reason is that you may feel psychologically anxious, so there is a possibility that the trade will proceed incorrectly. - If you can trade with only what I mentioned above and make an average profit, it is because you have established a trading strategy according to your investment style. - We need objective information to establish a trading strategy according to your investment style. We think that this is the only way to minimize the psychological factors that arise when starting a trade. If you can add various indicators to the chart to obtain objective information and receive support and resistance point information according to them, you can create a trading strategy according to them at any time. To do this, we used the StochRSI, OBV, CCI, and RSI indicators to display support and resistance points on the price candle part. And, we added the StochRSI and BW indicators as auxiliary indicators. The StochRSI indicator added as an auxiliary indicator is not the StochRSI indicator provided by default, but an indicator with a modified formula, so you can share the chart and use it or copy and paste the TS-BW UP indicator to your own chart and use it. There is no problem using the basic StochRSI indicator. However, there is a slight difference from what I said, so there may be a slight problem in understanding. - As above, since the support and resistance points of the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts are drawn on the chart to create a trading strategy, my chart is very confusing and not easy to understand when you first look at it. And, since there are many indicators that I have not explained, it may be even more difficult to see the chart. Therefore, to resolve the difficult parts, share the chart, hide the indicators added to the chart, and activate them one by one while looking at them, and you will be able to understand the chart. If you share the chart, you can use it normally, so you can check the chart from various angles. - Have a good time. Thank you. --------------------------------------------------
Education
by readCrypto
1
How I Use Multi Timeframe Analysis to Capture LARGE Price SwingsDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. Trading involves real risk. Do your own due diligence. TUTORIAL: Today, I demonstrate the thought process and mechanical steps I take when trading my Multi-Timeframe strategy. We take a look at US Treasuries, which have offers a classic lesson in how to apply this approach. As you will see, throughout the year, this approach took some losses prior to getting involved in the "real" move which we anticipated. No strategy is perfect, and I do not purport this to be perfect. It is a rules based and effective way to read price. This strategy is great for people who don't have a lot of time to spend at the charts. I would classify this more as an "investing" strategy when utilizing the 12M-2W-12H timeframe. If you have questions about anything in this video, feel free to shoot me a message. I hope you have all had a great week so far. Good Luck & Good Trading.
CBOT:ZF1!Education
by Tradius_Trades
3
Deep dive into Acceleration / Deceleration Indicator Hello, Skyrexians! Last time we discussed how you can use the Awesome Oscillator to create profitable crypto trading strategies and which type of signals it generates. Today we will deep dive into Acceleration/Deceleration (AC) the next Bill Williams indicator, which can also enhance your cryptocurrency trading strategy. This indicator also can be valuable not only for manual trades, but also for developing your crypto trading algorithm, crypto algo trading platform, crypto trading bot, ai trading bot or grid bot. The main thing is to understand what is the AC indicator and which signals it generate, which signals we shall use in crypto trading like top crypto traders. Let's go! What is Acceleration / Deceleration? The Acceleration/Deceleration Oscillator (AC) is a technical analysis indicator developed by Bill Williams, a notable trader and author known for his work in market psychology and trading systems. This indicator helps traders identify changes in market momentum and potential trend reversals. How the Acceleration/Deceleration (AC) Indicator Works? The AC indicator is based on the idea that the momentum of the market (speed of price movement) often changes before the price itself changes. By identifying these shifts in momentum early, traders can anticipate potential trend changes. The AC is derived from the Awesome Oscillator (AO), another indicator created by Bill Williams, which is the difference between a 34-period and a 5-period simple moving average of the median price (the average of high and low prices). The AC is calculated by subtracting a 5-period simple moving average of the AO from the AO itself. Mathematically, it can be represented as: AC = AO − SMA5(AO) Where AO is Awesome Oscillator (calculated as the difference between the 34-period SMA and the 5-period SMA of the median price). SMA5(AO) is 5-period simple moving average of the AO. Now let's consider which types of signals AC can generate.
Education
by Skyrexio
A simple long-term T/F Stochastic Trick You Will Only Learn Here Cast your minds back to the end of 2015 guys. I know you probably have no recall on the Gold-price. So let me tell you how the Gold price was behaving at the end of 2015. For several years prior (approximately) 2012-2015 the Gold Price was trending down to a support level around December 2015. Now, take a look at the 3 MONTH-Chart for XAU USD. What do you see when looking at the 2nd bottom of chart indicator the Stochastics. Scan from left to right from 2007 to 2024. How many times does it get over-sold under the crucial 20 level. Do you get my drift? Just prior to December 2015 the Stochastic on the 3M chart crossed-down below the 20 level. But it would've been pressing-down-hard at the floor so you would not be buying yet. But now, look what happens to price around December 2015 when the 3-MONTH-STOCHASTIC INDICATOR crosses up the Green-20 line. You are correct, price starts to rally-hard. Forget the so-called gurus selling the b.s. indicators guys. Stochastics and especially on the Higher-Time-Frame is the "KING" of all indicators. It's only let-down is that it does tend to give you a road-map of when to exit your trade. That road-map can be achieved tracking the MACD, which incidentally, the MACD got you into a trade here in Gold not long after the Stochastic crossed-up the 20, there was a Bullish cross-up of the MACD lines. The lower under the zero line this MACD cross occurs. Following the MACD and RSI can actually create a road-map like you are driving a car and trying to avoid an interest, I might explain this another time. But again, nobody will teach you this trading secret on the Highertimeframes, you will only learn it from the 100% free subscription service delivered by me here at easy_explosive_trades. Just imagine buying 1 lot in XAU USD and capitalising on that 138% move. I have not done the maths. These are the big trades I look for on the highertimeframes. I started investing and trading during the GFC in 2008 but in 2015 I did not know about this very insider high-time-frame trick using the number 1 indicator, the King-Stochastics, it get you into trades on HTF with needle point accuracy. Nobody showed me this trick. I work these things out myself. I wanted to share it with you. As I am proud to have you part of my channel. Cheers, Chris easy_explosive_trader * Trading is risky. Don't rely solely on my investment advice. Monday's trades: We are bidding up the Silver price & Palladium. Both of these and especially Palladium are bullish on the HTF. Hey..... forget these gurus with their 72 day moving averages & 171 day moving averages. You make money sticking to the basics in trading. Finally, I encourage you to, if you take my trades, to always risk no more than 0.25% to 0.50%. I endeavour always to give you fantastic RR not this 1:1 crap that the expensive subscriptions in Gold and Currency's charge. I make enough money trading, I don't need to make money out of you.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDEducation
by Easy_Explosive_Trading
1
How to use Implied Volatility Index to analyze Bitcoin▮ Introduction Bitcoin is known for its price volatility. Analyzing the price chart alone is often not enough to make buy and sell decisions. Implied volatility indexes such as DERIBIT:DVOL and VOLMEX:BVIV can complement traditional technical analysis by providing insights into market sentiment and expectations. ▮ Understanding DVOL/BVIV DVOL and BVIV measure the expected implied volatility of Bitcoin over the next 30 days, derived from real-time call and put options. DVOL is calculated by Deribit, the world's largest Bitcoin and Ether options exchange. BVIV is calculated by Volmex Finance; the data is extracted from exchanges (currently Deribit and OKX), and then combined into a single set. * In addition to Bitcoin, it is possible to analyze Ethereum-specific instruments through the ticks DERIBIT:ETHDVOL and VOLMEX:EVIV, whose line of reasoning is the same. ▮ Interpreting the chart 🔶 High DVOL/BVIV values ​​indicate that the market expects greater volatility in the next 30 days. This is usually associated with uncertainty, fear, or expected major events. 🔶 The index does not indicate the direction of the price, but rather whether volatility will increase or decrease. 🔶 Low values ​​indicate an expectation of lower volatility and are usually associated with calmer and more optimistic markets. 🔶 To get an idea of ​​the expected daily movement of Bitcoin, simply divide the DVOL value by 20. For example, a DVOL of 100 indicates an expected daily movement of 5%. 🔶 Divergences between the price of Bitcoin and DVOL/BVIV can signal inflection points. 🔶 Price rising with a drop in DVOL/BVIV may indicate exhaustion and a potential top. 🔶 Price falling with a drop in DVOL/BVIV may indicate exhaustion and a potential bottom. ▮ Example The price of BTC here is at the top in white. The DVOL and the RSI of DVOL are both in red. The reason I put the RSI here is that it is easier to analyze DVOL, since the values ​​are in a fixed range, therefore easier to interpret. On March 25, 2022, the RSI shows a contracted value of 30, that is, low implied volatility. This foreshadows a period of calm that precedes a period of agitation. In this case, the “agitation” soon materializes in a period of price decline. When the RSI then reaches the upper limit range, at 83 (on May 12, 2022), a peak in volatility is characterized. Then, after that, it begins to decrease. This decrease in volatility in DVOL corroborates the moment of Bitcoin’s lateralization within the orange box. ▮ Conclusion Although DVOL and BVIV should not be used in isolation, they can be valuable tools for confirming price chart signals and anticipating major movements. Incorporating implied volatility analysis into your strategy, can improve the timing of entries/exits and help manage risk. ⚠️ But remember: Just because a strategy worked in the past does not mean it will work forever. Past profitability is no guarantee of future profitability. Do your own analysis and risk management.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by andre_007
11
Deep dive into Awesome OscillatorsHello, Skyrexians! We continue our series of educational content. Today it's time to consider the Awesome Oscillator, the indicator introduced by Bill Williams in his book "Trading Chaos". It can be very useful in your crypto trading. A lot of crypto trading strategies use this indicator. You can combine it with other indicators to create your crypto trading algorithm, trading bot or manual cryptocurrency trading strategy. Most of top crypto traders and top crypto trading platforms use it in their automated crypto trading. If you will be aware you to trade using Awesome Oscillator will be able to enhance your automated trading bot, manual trading strategy or setup grid trading bot more effectively. We think there is enough arguments to learn how to use this indicator. Let's start our deep dive! What is Awesome Oscillator? The Awesome Oscillator (AO) is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis to measure the strength and direction of a market trend. It was created by Bill Williams and is designed to help traders identify potential reversals or trend continuations. Key Features of the Awesome Oscillator: Momentum Measurement: The AO measures the difference between a short-term moving average and a long-term moving average, using midpoints of each candlestick rather than closing prices. This provides insights into the market's momentum. Histogram Representation: The indicator is typically displayed as a histogram, with bars oscillating above and below a zero line. Green bars represent increasing momentum (bullish), while red bars indicate decreasing momentum (bearish). The Awesome Oscillator is calculated using simple moving average(SMA) as follows: AO = SMA(5-period) − SMA(34-period) Now let's consider the signals which can be produced by Awesome Oscillator with the examples.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Skyrexio
How to Read the RSI Indicator: The Market's Lie DetectorAttention TradingViewers, market gurus, and Instagram influencers, this one indicator goes hard whenever it’s onto something. Let's talk about the RSI — the Relative Strength Index . This bad boy is like the lie detector test of the market, calling out overhyped moves and under-the-radar opportunities. What’s RSI All About? The RSI is a momentum-based oscillator that captures the speed and change of price movements. It operates on a scale of 0 to 100, and if you know how to read it, it’s like having X-ray vision into the market’s moods. The best part? It’s super easy to use — slap it on any chart, any time frame and let it do its thing. The Numbers Above 70 : Overbought alert! If the RSI shows a reading above 70, the trading instrument may have been partying a little too hard. Anywhere above 70 means that it’s flashing “overbought” – like a sugar rush that’s about to crash. Traders who follow the RSI usually interpret this as a signal to sell and move out of the asset before the line reverses course and dives back under the high-water mark. Sometimes, however, the price keeps climbing well above 70. Below 30 : Now we’re in “oversold” territory – it’s like spotting a hidden gem in a bargain bin. When RSI drops below 30, the market’s saying, “This thing’s been beaten down, but maybe – just maybe – it’s time for a comeback.” Keep in mind that sometimes the dip may keep dipping. How It’s Calculated RSI is all about relative strength — it compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses. Picture a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The RSI score tells you who’s winning the battle right now, but also hints at who might be running out of strength. Trading with RSI Overbought? Maybe Sell (obligatory DYOR) . When RSI hits 70 and above, you might be looking at a market running out of fuel. You may start thinking about trimming your position, or at least keep an eye out for a reversal. After all, what goes up must come down (except maybe Bitcoin BTC/USD ?) Oversold? Maybe Buy (obligatory DYOR) . If the RSI drops to 30 and below, it could be a signal to start looking for a buying opportunity. The market is going through a meltdown and sometimes that’s your cue to go bargain hunting and snap up some discounted assets. Just make sure that your stock or crypto of choice isn’t falling for a specific reason — no indicator can save you from an actual rug pull. The Sweet Spot — Divergences: Ever notice when the RSI and price action don’t agree? That’s called a divergence, and it’s like catching the market in a lie. If the price is making new highs but the RSI isn’t, or vice versa, it’s a clue that something fishy’s going on and you may want to be on the lookout for a sur- price reversal. Bonus Tip: RSI in Different Timeframes Wanna get fancy and earn some bragging rights? Use RSI across different timeframes. A stock might be oversold on the daily but overbought on the weekly. By spotting the trend across different time frames, you can pick your desired time frame to trade in and follow closely. The higher the time frame, the longer the time horizon for the move to actually pan out. So, there you have it – the RSI. It’s not a crystal ball, but it’s pretty close. Use it wisely, and you might just outsmart the market — or at least stay ahead of the next big move. Keep those charts hot, continue learning about technical analysis and go smash those trading goals of yours. 🔥
Education
by TradingView
17
An ADX Tip. :)Hello traders! I'm back from a few years away and found a little nugget on ADX in my trading notes which I wanted to share with you. As you may know I have focused the majority of my attention on candlestick analysis using Steve Nison training material. In one of his courses I have written down this quote by a significant trader he talks about sometimes, " Some of the best buy signals are found when ADX is below 15 and begins to rise. " - Chuck Lebeau Having seen that quote I brought up TradingView and found the most recent occurrence of that happening on the asset I was analyzing on the Weekly chart and look what I found: Steve Nison teaches a strategy called "Trading the 9" which involves the 9, 20, & 50 period moving averages. Look, there was a Golden Cross of all of them exactly when ADX crossed above 15! Outstanding! Maybe look at adding an alert on the assets you watch for ADX crossing above 15! :)
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by zerocashcool
Zero Spread Milestone: Strategic Trade in Micro Yield FuturesIntroduction The current market scenario presents a unique potential opportunity in the yield spread between Micro 10-Year Yield Futures (10Y1!) and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures (2YY1!). This spread is reaching a critical price point of zero, likely acting as a strong resistance. Such a rare situation opens the door for a strategic trading opportunity where traders can consider shorting the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures and buying the Micro 2-Year Yield Futures. In TradingView, this spread is visualized using the symbol 10Y1!-CBOT_MINI:2YY1!. The combination of technical indicators suggests a mean reversion trade setup, making this a compelling moment for traders to act on such a potential opportunity. The alignment of overbought signals from Bollinger Bands® and the RSI indicator further strengthens the case for a reversal, presenting an intriguing setup for informed traders. All of this is following last Wednesday, July 31, 2024, when the FED reported their decision related to interest rates where they left them unchanged, adding further context to the current market dynamics. Yield Futures Contract Specifications Micro 10-Year Yield Futures (10Y1!): Price Quotation: Quoted in yield with a minimum fluctuation of 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum). Tick Value: Each tick is worth $1. Margin Requirements: Approximately $320 per contract (subject to change based on market conditions). Micro 2-Year Yield Futures (2YY1!): Price Quotation: Quoted in yield with a minimum fluctuation of 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum). Tick Value: Each tick is worth $1. Margin Requirements: Approximately $330 per contract (subject to change based on market conditions). Margin Requirements: The margin requirements for these contracts are relatively low, making them accessible for retail traders. However, traders must ensure they maintain sufficient margin in their accounts to cover potential market movements and avoid margin calls. Understanding Futures Spreads What is a Futures Spread? A futures spread is a trading strategy that involves simultaneously buying and selling two different futures contracts with the aim of profiting from the difference in their prices. This difference, known as the spread, can fluctuate based on various market factors, including interest rates, economic data, and investor sentiment. Futures spreads are often used to hedge risks, speculate on price movements, or take advantage of relative value differences between related instruments. Advantages of Futures Spreads: Reduced Risk: Spreads generally have lower risk compared to outright futures positions because the two legs of the spread can offset each other. Lower Margin Requirements: Exchanges often set lower margin requirements for spread trades compared to single futures contracts because the risk is typically lower. Leverage Relative Value: Traders can take advantage of price discrepancies between related contracts, potentially profiting from their convergence or divergence. Yield Spread Example: In the context of Micro 10-Year Yield Futures and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures, a yield spread trade involves buying (or shorting) one contract (10Y1! Or 2YY1!) while shorting (or buying) the other. This trade is based on the expectation that the spread between these two yields will move in a specific direction, such as narrowing or widening. The current scenario (detailed below), where the spread is reaching zero, suggests a significant resistance level, providing a unique trading opportunity for mean reversion. Analysis Method Technical Indicators: Bollinger Bands® and RSI 1. Bollinger Bands®: The spread between the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures (10Y1!) and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures (2YY1!) is currently above the upper Bollinger Band on both the daily and weekly timeframes. This indicates potential overbought conditions, suggesting that a price reversal might be imminent. 2. RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is clearly overbought on the daily timeframe, signaling a possible mean reversion trade. When the RSI reaches such elevated levels, it often indicates that the current trend may be losing momentum, opening the door for a reversal. Chart Analysis Daily Spread Chart of 10Y1! - 2YY1! The main article daily chart above displays the spread between 10Y1! and 2YY1!, highlighting the current position above the upper Bollinger Band. The RSI indicator also shows overbought conditions, reinforcing the potential for a mean reversion. Weekly Spread Chart of 10Y1! - 2YY1! The above weekly chart further confirms the spread's position above the upper Bollinger Band. This longer-term view provides additional context and supports the likelihood of a reversal. Conclusion: Combining the insights from both Bollinger Bands® and RSI provides a compelling rationale for the trading opportunity. The spread reaching the upper Bollinger Band on multiple timeframes, along with an overbought RSI, strongly suggests that the current overextended condition is potentially unsustainable. Additionally, all of this is occurring around the key price level of zero, which can act as a significant psychological and technical resistance. This convergence of technical indicators and the critical price level points to a high probability for a potential mean reversion, making it an opportune moment to analyze shorting the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures (10Y1!) and buying the Micro 2-Year Yield Futures (2YY1!) as the spread is expected to revert towards its mean. Trade Setup Entry: The strategic trade involves shorting the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures (10Y1!) and buying the Micro 2-Year Yield Futures (2YY1!) around the price point of 0. This is based on the analysis that the spread reaching zero can act as a strong resistance level. Target: As we expect the 20 SMA to move with each daily update, instead of targeting -0.188, we aim for a mean reversion to approximately -0.15. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss slightly above the recent highs of the spread. The daily ATR (Average True Range) value is 0.046, so adding this to the entry price could be a way to implement a volatility stop. This accounts for potential volatility and limits the downside risk of the trade. Reward-to-Risk Ratio: Calculate the reward-to-risk ratio based on the entry, target, and stop loss levels. For example, if the entry is at 0.04, the target is -0.15, and the stop loss is at 0.09, the reward-to-risk ratio can be calculated as follows: Reward: 0.19 points = $190 Risk: 0.05 = $50 Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 0.19 / 0.05 = 3.8 : 1 Importance of Risk Management Defining Risk Management: Risk management is crucial to limit potential losses and ensure long-term trading success. It involves identifying, analyzing, and taking proactive steps to mitigate risks associated with trading. Using Stop Loss Orders: Always use stop loss orders to prevent significant losses and protect capital. A stop loss order automatically exits a trade when the price reaches a predetermined level, limiting the trader's loss. Avoiding Undefined Risk Exposure: Clearly define your risk exposure to avoid unexpected large losses. This involves defining the right position size based on the trader’s risk management rules by setting maximum loss limits per trade and overall portfolio. Precise Entries and Exits: Accurate entry and exit points are essential for successful trading. Well-timed entries and exits can maximize profits and minimize losses. Other Important Considerations: Diversify your trades to spread risk across different assets. Regularly review and adjust your trading strategy based on market conditions. Stay informed about macroeconomic events and news that could impact the markets. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Education
by traddictiv
Elliott Wave DemonstrationDemonstration of Elliott Wave Principles using Bitcoin chart: Rules: Wave 2 never goes below end of Wave 1 => checked Wave 3 is not the shortest of Wave 1, 3 and 5 => checked Wave 4 never goes below end of Wave 1 => checked Guidelines: Guideline of Alternation: Wave 2 and 4 alternates in form (sharp vs sideways), retracement (shallow vs deep) and duration (long vs short) => checked Guideline of Wave Equality: Two out of three waves (1,3 and 5) tend to be equal in length and duration, Wave 1 and 5 meeting this guideline => checked Momentum is highest during end of wave 3, end of Wave 5 normally creates divergence with price => checked Volume during Wave 3 is normally the highest amongst Wave 1,3 and 5 Relations with Fib ratios: Wave 2 retraced Wave 1 by 78.6% (deep) Wave 3 was equal to 261.8% of Wave 1 (longest) Wave 4 retraced Wave 3 by 38.2% (shallow) Wave 5 was equal to 100% of Wave 1 (Guideline of Wave equality)
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by MalayKJ
Divergence: RSI vs. PriceHey everyone! In my years of trading, I've really come to love Reversal Strategies and my favorite is in the form of a DIVERGENCE! Today, I took some time to put together an Educational Video on: 1) What a Divergence Is? 2) How to Spot them! & 3) How to Trade them! I hope you find this helpful! **Tips - Divergence is never good enough to trade alone, YOU NEED CONFIRMATION! - The longer the Divergence takes, the more reliable it is - Change in Momentum is KEY!
Education
by Novi_Fibonacci
6
Trade the TREND with 4 Trend Indicators4 Trend Indicators you can use to identify the current MACRO Trend. It's always important to know where your market is currently trading. Is it bullish, bearish, or range trading? If you have established the trend, you can trade with the trend instead of against it. Trading against the trend ( for example shorting during a bullish cycle ) adds unnecessary risk to an already risky trade (leverage). 1) Bollinger Bands 2) Logarithmic View 3) Super Trend 4) Moving Averages + RSI Let me know how YOU determine the macro trend! _________________________ BINANCE:DOGEUSDT MEXC:ETHUSDT KRAKEN:BTCUSD COINBASE:SOLUSD
Education
by Crypto-Check-
4
RSI Indicator LIES! Untold Truth About RSI! The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a classic technical indicator that is applied to identify the overbought and oversold states of the market. While the RSI looks simple to use, there is one important element in it that many traders forget about: it's a lagging indicator. This means it reacts to past price movements rather than predicting future ones. This inherent lag can sometimes mislead traders, particularly when the markets are volatile or trade in a strong bullish/bearish trend. In this article, we will discuss the situations when RSI indicator will lie to you. We will go through the instances when the indicator should not be relied and not used on, and I will explain to you the best strategy to apply RSI. Relative Strength Index analyzes the price movements over a specific time period and displays a score between 0 and 100. Generally, an RSI above 70 suggests an overbought condition, while an RSI below 30 suggests an oversold condition. By itself, the overbought and overbought conditions give poor signals, simply because the market may remain in these conditions for a substantial period of time. Take a look at a price action on GBPCHF. After the indicator showed the oversold condition, the pair dropped 150 pips lower before the reversal initiated. So as an extra confirmation , traders prefer to look for RSI divergence - the situation when the price action and indicator move in the opposite direction. Above is the example of RSI divergence: Crude Oil formed a sequence of higher highs, while the indicator formed a higher high with a consequent lower high. That confirmed the overbought state of the market, and a bearish reversal followed. However, only few knows that even a divergence will provide accurate signals only in some particular instances. When you identified RSI divergence, make sure that it happened after a test of an important key level. Historical structures increase the probability that the RSI divergence will accurately indicate the reversal. Above is the example how RSI divergence gave a false signal on USDCAD. However, the divergence that followed after a test of a key level, gave a strong bearish signal. There are much better situations when RSI can be applied, but we will discuss later on, for now, the main conclusion is that RSI Divergence beyond key levels most of the time will provide low accuracy signals. But there is one particular case, when RSI divergence will give the worst, the most terrible signal. In very rare situations, the market may trade in a strong bullish trend, in the uncharted territory, where there are no historical price levels. In such cases, RSI bullish divergence will constantly lie , making retail traders short constantly and lose their money. Here is what happens with Gold on a daily. The market is trading in the uncharted territory, updated the All-Time Highs daily. Even though there is a clear overbought state and a divergence, the market keeps growing. Only few knows, however, that even though RSI is considered to be a reversal, counter trend indicator, it can be applied for trend following trading. On a daily time frame, after the price sets a new high, wait for a pullback to a key horizontal support. Your bullish signal, will be a bearish divergence on an hourly time frame. Here is how the price retested a support based on a previous ATH on Gold. After it approached a broken structure, we see a confirmed bearish divergence. That gives a perfect trend-following signal to buy the market. A strong bullish rally followed then. RSI indicator is a very powerful tool, that many traders apply incorrectly. When the market is trading in a strong trend, this indicator can be perfectly applied for following the trend, not going against that. I hope that the cases that I described will help you not lose money, trading with Relative Strength Index. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Education
by VasilyTrader
34
Finding a section to start tradingHello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- The BW indicator included in the TS - BW indicator is an indicator expressed by synthesizing the MACD, StochRSI, CCI, PVT, and superTrend indicators. When the BW indicator - records a high point, it is time to sell, and - When it records a low point, it is time to buy. The BW indicator in the price candle section is the same as the BW indicator included in the TS - BW indicator, but it is an indicator that is expressed in the price candle when a horizontal line is formed at the highest or lowest point. If you look at the position of the BW indicator expressed in the price candle section, you can know when to proceed with a trade. I think you can be confident about starting a trade by referring to the status of the MS-Signal (M-Signal on 1D, 1W, 1M charts) indicator that can confirm the trend. If you add the HA-Low, HA-High indicators here, you can create a more detailed trading strategy. Have a good time. Thank you. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​Big picture It is expected that a full-scale uptrend will start when it rises above 29K. The section that is expected to be touched in the next bull market is 81K-95K. #BTCUSD 12M 1st: 44234.54 2nd: 61383.23 3rd: 89126.41 101875.70-106275.10 (overshooting) 4th: 13401.28 151166.97-157451.83 (overshooting) 5th: 178910.15 These are points where resistance is likely to occur in the future. We need to check if these points can be broken upward. We need to check the movement when this section is touched because I think a new trend can be created in the overshooting section. #BTCUSD 1M If the major uptrend continues until 2025, it is expected to start forming a pull back pattern after rising to around 57014.33. 1st: 43833.05 2nd: 32992.55 -----------------
Education
by readCrypto
1
How to read mean returns (Expand the indicator)Mean returns is a trend detection and overextension indicator. It oscillates around the value of 0. The mean return line in reality is the orange one as well as the blue one. The difference is in the number of data points into the past that they consider. Since the value of those lines is the expected value of the returns in period t, then if it's over 0 the expectation is that returns will be positive, as previously the price has been trending higher. The opposite being true as well. Meanwhile, the red and green line represent the expected upwards and expected downwards returns. That means you only take the expected value for the days in which the return was positive or negative accordingly. Therefore, if the mean returns are over the expected upwards returns the price is likely to be overextended, and vice versa. Other adjustments were made to consider the current candle. This code will remain private, as it took a lot of effort to invent. I hope you are able to understand the math. If you can't, I hope this at least allowed you to read the meaning of the indicator through this.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by DarkMessiah777
1
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part XII - 6-4-24 FlagsPart XII I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups. Essentially, it comes down to three key components... A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length). B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low. C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend. Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated. I go over multiple techniques in this video. Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory Anchor Bars (breakaway bars) Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending Stochastics RSI Wave formations (ZigZag) and Others This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style. Hope you enjoy.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part XI - SPY Flagging ExamplePart XI I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups. Essentially, it comes down to three key components... A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length). B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low. C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend. Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated. I go over multiple techniques in this video. Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory Anchor Bars (breakaway bars) Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending Stochastics RSI Wave formations (ZigZag) and Others This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style. Hope you enjoy.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part X - EOD 2 Min ES RecapPart X - End Of Day 2 Min ES Recap I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups. Essentially, it comes down to three key components... A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length). B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low. C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend. Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated. I go over multiple techniques in this video. Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory Anchor Bars (breakaway bars) Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending Stochastics RSI Wave formations (ZigZag) and Others This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style. Hope you enjoy.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by BradMatheny
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part IX - ES Breakdown To SupportPart IX I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups. Essentially, it comes down to three key components... A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length). B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low. C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend. Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated. I go over multiple techniques in this video. Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory Anchor Bars (breakaway bars) Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending Stochastics RSI Wave formations (ZigZag) and Others This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style. Hope you enjoy.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by BradMatheny
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part VIII - Learning PatiencePart VIII I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups. Essentially, it comes down to three key components... A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length). B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low. C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend. Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated. I go over multiple techniques in this video. Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory Anchor Bars (breakaway bars) Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending Stochastics RSI Wave formations (ZigZag) and Others This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style. Hope you enjoy.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by BradMatheny
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part VII - 2 Min ES TrendingPart VII - Applying Success/Failure & Fibonacci Price Theory I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups. Essentially, it comes down to three key components... A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length). B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low. C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend. Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated. I go over multiple techniques in this video. Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory Anchor Bars (breakaway bars) Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending Stochastics RSI Wave formations (ZigZag) and Others This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style. Hope you enjoy.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by BradMatheny
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part VI - 2 Min ES ChartPart VI I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups. Essentially, it comes down to three key components... A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length). B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low. C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend. Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated. I go over multiple techniques in this video. Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory Anchor Bars (breakaway bars) Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending Stochastics RSI Wave formations (ZigZag) and Others This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style. Hope you enjoy.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by BradMatheny