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USDJPY Trading range labeling game (28 JAN 2020)/practice*Never received any formal Wyckoff training. Have been trying to put it together so if this is not 100% accurate, bear with me... its practice. Bing Wyckoff accumulation schematic and there you will receive a plethora of Wyckoff accumulation and distribution schematics. In my opinion, understanding what this is must be central to your trading style. Wyckoff developed the blueprint in the 1930's and has stood the test of time. Even with the automation and the speed/access to the markets by the layperson, the principles of supply and demand have remained the same. Sources of education: Richard Wyckoff Tom Williams Volume spread analysis VSA/ Master the Markets Pete Faders VSA* Read the ticker dot com Wyckoff analytics Dee Nixon BTC trading challenge price action/volume techniques
Education
by dee718
BTCUSD 23 JAN 2020 1 hour 2340 hrs .. This is likely a stretch but: downtrend 3-4 day trading range (cycle) 8-10% move per cycle slight demand increase to slow down progress to the down side decreased supply pressure at 14 EMA converging with previous resistance (creating demand thus slowing progress).. Trying to think 2-3 times ahead. What makes sense? Where are they taking the price? Who are the winners and who are the losers? When and what are going to be events to create movement/announcements? Practice*
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by dee718
1
OBV has not confirmed breakout.OBV is still within a range compared to price indicating further downside may be in store in the short term. However, looking at the broader picture, I believe a breakout upward is still likely by May as OBV and MACD are setting higher lows. With that said, if OBV breaks the range resistance and the downward triangle to the upside, this would be a good long entry point in my opinion. This is for educational purposes only. I only pretend to know what I'm talking about as this is a complex subject.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDEducation
by Surrealist1337
USDCAD long setup example as i was practicing =, this formation appeared. I thought there were a few things that stood out that were worthy of sharing. Always refer to Tom Willams VSA and Wyckoff for formal explanation and resource (never pay, resources are freely available)... background was an uptrend. Objective is to find entry signals that align with the trend on the back of SM. You should be able to clearly see a "fall through the ice" situations here. (break of support). Upon the break of support, price finds very high volume (demand) which created a violent rejection back above the broken support. Very typical VSA SOS. The spring action is circled in red. Notice again the rapid rejection right back into the TR on high volume. The spring also happened to be a 50% fib retracement (green box). This is a potential entry area. Break-test-continuatioin pattern after the spring (2nd potential entry area) . Slight volume expansion on test (maybe called an LPS) circled in blue. The LPS converges with the 14/50 ema ad previous resistance turned support. The trend line would have been drawn in hindsight but the 50% fib retrace could have been plotted. However, you do see the convergence after the fact. set-up took about 2 session to begin playing out. There are a few more variables that could be talked about here, but I am sticking to the highlights. Again, please refer to VSA and Wyckoff for more detailed training and entry techniques. practice* “Patience is key to success not speed. Time is a cunning speculators best friend if he uses it right” Jesse Livermore Sources of education: Tom Williams Volume spread analysis VSA/ Master the Markets Richard Wyckoff Pete Faders VSA* Read the ticker dot com Dee Nixon BTC trading challenge price action/volume techniques Good luck
Education
by dee718
Short term bearish pattern identificationEntering a short under 8130 doesn't look ideal to me, but it already dropped before I could finish this... The bit about lower volume on a higher high after a range break is what I look at to indicate top. It is a bluff by the 'market makers' to thin out the orderbooks and allow the price to float up without pressure, or simply shift the orders higher, to catch stops right above what was assumed to be the high. Ranges are different on every timeframe and ideally one adjusts position size according to the size of the range and avail. portfolio to burn
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by NeoButane
2
The Delta of Volume ExplainedThis is the first part of a tutorial series I will develop about trading concepts I use that are not well understood. I am using BTCUSD specifically, but the general ideas apply to every tradable asset. Volume is the amount of force applied to the market in both directions, buy and sell. It is "Ipso Facto" (by the fact itself) that force moves objects, with the object here being price. So, the amount of Buy Volume pushes the price up, Sell Volume pushes it down. But these orders are being executed every second of every day. What happens if 100btc is bought and sold on the same tick? The two forces neutralize each other. Delta is the "Net Force" being applied to the market. The buying minus the selling. Delta doesn't tell us anything about how thick the order book is. Thus it does not tell us anything about the speed of movement of the price (in fact ignore order book thickness for now). However, The question delta answers is: "Who is DOING what?" Who = Market Participants What = Buying or Selling We know institutions are profitable because otherwise, they would be out of business. We also know they move the most volume. Since they are generally profitable and have the largest volume footprint, we can assume they're betting on the correct future direction of the market and their activity will be visible in the volume. So, what if we just watched what they are doing? That's essentially the delta, the net of all the whales' buying and selling. There are many complicated strategies they will deploy that involve both buying and selling in different ways at different times (using futures and spot, meaning futures and spot are both independently important). Watching the delta is to pay attention to its direction and rate of change. By doing this we can see what is happening in the and then when there's a strong current, you jump into it like Dude Crush from Nemo into the EAC, the East Australia Current.... duuuuude. I have found that market orders are, in fact, responsible for price movement. That is to say, I have yet to see a period where the price is dropping and delta is not also dropping. It MAY be positive still, but it drops lower. So, that implies that Delta indicates the current direction and provides information that can predict future direction. (Also, it seems to me that, futures drive direction more than spot at this time) Feel free to ask any questions about this you have. Thanks for reading.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDEducation
by kurtsmock
13
Strong support, what's next?Here is current bitcoin's bias on short term. we can see that the down trend channel is holding true and current price is moving just slightly above the lower line of the channel. Not just touching it, it has touched the strong psychological support which is around $8000 region. we might see a dead cat bounce from this area and challenging the previous broken support that is now become resistance around $8500 region. On lower time frame, I haven't seen any sign of bullish pressure yet. the price keep moving sideway around $8050 - $8200 region which is not significant and not worth to enter long position for now. We must once again consider the higher time frame as a wider horoscope of potential direction of the price in the near future. The wide range of support could still be in play with a possible huge wick to the down side before it starts the bulls rally in short term. we must to be very reactive and very cautious at this levels, considering the wick fish is becoming the natural behavior a past movement. I am still waiting for potential dead cat bounce, but I don't think that this is the right time to enter long position.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by julio24albert
Lazy bear RSI S/R plotting tip In this example the 1 hour is above and 15 min below. On the 1 hour chart the RSI support and resistance plotting tool is activated. The numeric settings are out of the box. The only change here is the color of the S/R lies and candle illumination. Once the indicator is activated i chose support and resistance levels that were closer to being in play and superimposed horizontal rays on the selected areas. You would leave those in place and the drop down to your smaller time frame where you will now have kep support or resistance price level marked. Now you can analyze the volume activity off of these levels based on the higher time frame. Useful for volume analysis/supply and demand methods. (VSA, Wyckoff, Faders). The Lazy bear S/R suite contains different variations based on various oscillators and volume. Basically it paints overbought and oversold regions directly on your chart. I cant find any formal instruction on this suite and have been trying to make sense of it on my own. Please add to this if you are more schooled in this are and if you have any questions please ask. Good Luck! “Patience is key to success not speed. Time is a cunning speculators best friend if he uses it right” Jesse Livermore Sources of education: Tom Williams Volume spread analysis VSA/ Master the Markets Richard Wyckoff Pete Faders VSA* Read the ticker dot com Dee Nixon BTC trading challenge price action/volume techniques Good luck
Education
by dee718
3
Faaalling Bitcoin? Cup and Handle + Volume AnalysisThis is a daily chart for BTCUSD on Bitstamp. The most obvious thing I want to highlight is the battle at the 0.382 Fib level. It is very very common for an asset to have a few checks and tests off of 0.382. And BTC is no exception. For the past few months, we've witnessed a battle between Bulls V Bears at 0.382. Now, bull and bear volume has been declining. Who will take over? It seems like the technical bearish pattern Cup and Handle has surfaced. The Cup and Handle target is projected downward, equal to the distance between the neckline and the highest point of the Cup and Handle. This projection takes us right around the 0.618 and 0.786 levels. These levels are very common to show reversals . And around this level, the price is around $6K. Funny, this is around double the last bottom ($3.1K). Why am I bringing this up? Remember, if you consider Bitcoin as a commodity, then you must remember that a commodity's price will gravitate to its cost of production over time . With difficulty increasing, we know that CoP will increase over time, and that BTC will have higher bottoms , at least for the short to medium term. So, it makes sense for BTC to follow this Cup and Handle projection. But remember, the market can do any damn thing it wants; we'll just have to wait and see ;)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by realcapmillen
Gnosis (GNOUSD): Coiling Volume.This is a daily chart of GNOUSD on Kraken. Looks like volume is coiling between an uptrend (green) line and a downtrend (red) line. Don't be surprised if you see a BIG move at the end of this coiling. Looking at price, based off of the Fib drawn from the high around $26 and the low around $13, we see some clear resistance at 0.382, a common area of resistance. If price can clearly break this resistance along with bullish market structure (i.e double bottom w. breakout), and volume looks bullish, it's a good call to buy some. Until then, pay attention.
KRAKEN:GNOUSDEducation
by realcapmillen
Ethereum Classic - Trend line BATTLE - Who will win?This is a daily chart of ETCUSD on Kraken. Looking at some of the recent price action, it seems like we're in a trend line battle. If we draw an uptrend line (green) from the low around $3.5, we see that this is being highly contested with, right now. Similarly, if we draw a downtrend line (red) from the high around $10, we see that price has not used it much as resistance yet. Based on this alone, the bears are clearly winning. But let's look at volume, too, to give us a better picture. Even in volume, we are in the midst of a long downtrend which has not been contested much with, yet. Overall, the bears are in control and the bulls have fallen asleep.
KRAKEN:ETCUSDEducation
by realcapmillen
The Key Fib Levels of 0.618 and 0.786 + Volume ProfileHere's a chart that nicely illustrates how the 0.618 and 0.786 levels are frequently used as reversal points by the market. Price is ping-ponging back and forth between these key levels, and we can also see an almost full Volume Profile (parabolic in shape). The shape of this VP tells us that all the prices within this given range have been discovered, with the middle areas being the places where the most buying and selling has occurred. This is a sign of a normal and healthy range. So, we have the Fib levels working in unison with Volume Profile to paint a picture of a ranging market.
NYSE:MSEducation
by realcapmillen
[Quick Guide] PRISM Signals & PDF indicators. The PRISM Signals appears to work well especially at lower time-frames (even down to 5 min candles). The key is to maximizing true-positives is to carefully optimize the input parameters and scoring weights and detection thresholds for a specific given chart and timeframe. See also the 5 mins chart: Also shown here is the PDF script, which provides: dynamic Fib levels, pSAR indicator, as well as 2 levels standard deviation bands (disabled here). The thickest green/red limes are the local-top/bottom lines. Adjust the Fib Input Range accordingly to ensure that the local highs/lows are accurately captured. The 61.8% levels are the thicker blue lines, and the purple lines are additional levels derived base on the mathematical conjugation between Fib levels. Again, it is highly recommended to carefully check/optimize the input parameters for a given chart/timeframe against historical trends before proceeding to use it. This script also provides consecutive higher/lower-highs/lows detection, which is disabled here. Various features of these scripts can be manually Enabled/Disabled by the users to keep the chart neat. Even though these scripts are constructed from a set of indicators, it is still highly advised to be used in conjunction with other analysis such as: trendlines, volume, and other indicators, etc., as well as analyzing and comparing with higher/lower timeframes, to help filter out or identify possible risk of false-positives to maximize your success rate. ========================================================== Indicators used: PRISM Signals (Color and Stdev bands disabled here) -- Algorithm to generate scoring-based bullish/bearish signals derived from the PRISM oscillators set. PDF {pSAR /w HiLo Trends + Fib Retrace/Extension Levels} -- Parabolic SAR /w HighLow Trends Indicator/Bar-color-marking + Dynamic Fib Retrace and Extension Level. Ichimoku Cloud {Cybernetwork} -- Ichimoku Cloud with modified parameters. Related Indicator: PRISM Oscillator -- pSAR based oscillator, with RSI/StochRSI as well as Momentum/Acceleration/Jerk indicators ========================================================== ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ Note: In no way is this intended as a financial/investment/trading advice. You are responsible for your own investment decisions and trades. Please exercise your own judgement for your own trades base on your own risk-aversion level and goals as an investor or a trader. The use of OTHER indicators and analysis in conjunction (tailored to your own style of investing/trading) will help improve confidence of your analysis, for you to determine your own trade decisions. ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ * ~ Please check out my other indicators sets and series, e.g. LIVIDITIUM (dynamic levels), AEONDRIFT (multi-levels standard deviation bands), FUSIONGAPS (MA based oscillators), MAJESTIC (Momentum/Acceleration/Jerk Oscillators), and more to come. Constructive feedback and suggestions are welcome. If you like any of my set of indicators, and it has benefited you in some ways, please consider tipping a little to my HRT fund. =D cybernetwork @ EOS 37DzRVwodp5UZBYjCKvVoZ5bDdDqhr7798 @ BTC MPr8Zhmpsx2uh3F5R4WD98MRJJpwuLBhA3 @ LTC 1Je6c1vvSCW7V2vA6RYDt6CEvqGYgT44F4 @ BCH AS259bXGthuj4VZ1QPzD39W3ut4fQV5giC @ NEO rDonew8fRDkZFv7dZYe5w3L1vJSE51zFAx @ Ripple XRP 0xc0161d27201914FC0bAe5e350a193c8658fc4742 @ ETH GAX6UDAJ52OGZW4FVVG3WLGIOJLGG2C7CTO5ZDUK2P6M6QMYBJMSJTDL @ Stellar XLM xrb_16s8cj8eoangfa96shsnkir3wctdzy76ajui4zexek6xmqssweu85rdjxrt4 @ Nano ~ JuniAiko (=^~^=)v~
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by cybernetwork
Story of the BitCoin is about to surprise everyoneFriend of mine said "I hope Bitcoin will go a little higher". I truly believe this is the problem, too many wishes and hopes by inexperienced people trying to make a fortune, gambling / guessing with absolutely no technical analysis. It goes up so I buy now, sell later. Easy... Shit! It went down!... I hope it will go back up. Problem is, it might not go back up soon Ladies and Gentlemen. I'm not saying this is something anyone of us wants to see but keep your eyes and mind open. Don't live with promises of Bitcoin reaching 20k, 30k, 60k USD. Early 2001 everyone was saying that CHF is stable and it is unlikely to move up... guess what? June 2001 started 10 years of a bull market! 10 freaking years!!! Now let's go back to Bitcoin. It doesn't matter that people are calling which direction Bitcoin will go, because if YOU will not do your own research you are not covered. The same story is for any Crypro, Forex, Stock, Indice, Commoditie and so on. Trading is not about feelings, hunch and hope. Stop lying yourselves and start doing your own research, your own analysis. Make a plan for every single trade and stick to it! Do it for yourself because I honestly don't mind anyone losing their money, but at the same time is would love to everyone successful with their trades. Even though a trading guru did a perfect analysis, it can still go the other way, this is normal, it happens and that's part of the trading. The key is to make more profit than loss. And for love of God, don't trade only cryptocurrencies. They are way harder than any other type of trading in my humble opinion. Now drop a like and prepare for Monday session. Disclaimer I am not a financial advisor. The advice here given is not financial advice even though my excitement might make it look like such. You trade at your own risk and nobody can guarantee you results. Even if someone could, I don't.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by estimyth
6
Profiting from Order Flow: How to follow the Institutional MoneyHow Order Flow and Liquidity Move the Market Order flow is the key driver which causes market price to move, buyers and sellers enter the market at different price levels by either supplying liquidity (via Limit orders) or consuming liquidity (via Market orders). When the liquidity balance is tipped, being more buyers than sellers (or vice versa) at a particular price level, the market will move until it reaches equilibrium again. From the charts this is immediately apparent, by looking for the Support and Resistance levels which indicate a liquidity imbalance - causing price to bounce, moving to the areas of consolidation which indicates the equilibrium zones. Which is the rhythm of the market constantly repeating itself time after time. The market participants trading the largest amount of volume will ultimately move the market. Those being the most capitalized institutions such as Investment & Commercial Banks, Governments, Funds, Corporates and Institutional Investors. By analysing the Institutional Order Flow, we can make far more informed decisions on where price is likely to go and devise a trading strategy based upon this knowledge. How to read Order Flow There are many ways to read order flow - on exchange traded markets with central order books you can analyse the market depth and time and sales, to identify the price levels where large orders have been executed and where they currently lie (given they are not hidden). However, for OTC markets like Spot FX, it is not as transparent as the market is fragmented, non-centralised and lacks a common order book. The market depth available on ECN’s and broker platforms is localised to that venue and will likely not give a true picture of where the large Limit orders rest and the overall market sentiment. Our Indicators 1. Futures Volume – We will use CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) Futures volume. As the Futures price mimics the Spot price, the volume can be used as a reliable indicator to guarantee accuracy due to both markets being directly correlated, and there being a transparent central exchange-based order book. The Volume displays the number of Futures contracts traded for a certain time period (hour, day, week, month, etc.). Analysing the traded volume is an integral element of the analysis, and according to the dynamics of the volume, we can judge the significance and strength of the price movement. This indicator shows a fixed interest of the market in relation to some prices or price ranges. It follows that price fluctuations, one way or another, are derived from the inflow or outflow of funds into or out of the market. Therefore, by analysing the volume we can determine the potential places where a price move will start or end. This is due to the cyclical nature of price movements flowing from one volume level to the next in a rhythmic nature, which repeats itself over any time period. 2. Delta – This is the difference between orders executed at the ASK and BID prices. Which is the CME Futures volume of BUY contracts vs SELL contracts traded; it allows us to see the “footprint” of the market beyond the simple candlestick chart. The net delta value will therefore be Positive or Negative and represents the current market sentiment. A positive delta indicates “positive” order flow as the result of buyers being more aggressive at that price. A negative delta indicates “negative” order flow as the result of sellers being more aggressive at that price. Consequently, based on the delta we can quantify the potential direction of future price moves with a greater level of conviction, as there is a high correlation between price direction and order flow. Delta is usually used in several applications: • studying of the general background of the market sentiment • searching for a "large" deal • divergence of the delta, etc. 3. Retail Market Sentiment – This is the current positioning and attitude of Retail investors and is a ratio of Long/Short positions on particular currency pairs. From studies on behavioural finance, market sentiment is seen as a good indicator of market moves, especially when it is at extreme levels. We will use the MyFXbook Community Outlook indicator as it is a rich data set sourced from hundreds of thousands of live retail trading accounts across the globe, trading with a multitude of independent retail brokers. We will use this tool as a contrarian indicator to “bet against the crowd”, as typically very bullish sentiment is usually followed by the market going down more than often and vice versa, combined with the fact that a high percentage of Retail investors are unsuccessful. The Strategy The key principle of the trading strategy is to discover moves and plans of the Institutional market participants and follow them. The volume shows us where they entered the market (volume levels), the delta shows a disproportion between them (sellers vs buyers). As a result, we can define where the “Institutional players” have their positions (volume levels), determine who dominates the market currently (with the help of delta), and replicate their positioning to make a profit. Additionally, the system always trades against the “crowd” (retail traders) as they have the highest probability of losing money on regular basis. For that purpose, the sentiment indicator is used, which displays the “mood” of the market. For example, we will be looking for a combination of the following for our entry/exit, as they indicate the turning points in the market: 1. High Volume levels 2. High Delta levels 3. High Retail Sentiment level, which is opposite to the Delta In summary, the system is based on volume-delta analysis, trend-following, and intraday-swing trading. SLs and TPs are always set; and the minimum risk/profit (SL vs TP) ratio is ½. To see further analysis and trade ideas based on these principles please follow us! The Professional Traders choice: VARIANSE
Education
by VARIANSE
9