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Is it okay to FOMO?You need to look at price action, and specifically, Heikin Ashi candles along with the Volume Indicator to tell you whether it's okay to FOMO. Use lower time frames to get in quicker. Mostly, I never recommend it, but sometimes where there is strong buying and a clear trend change, a dip might not come for a while. And when it does, because it went up so fast, it can usually lead to a downtrend so you have to be careful. Especially in crypto where there is Bull Trap manipulations upwards. However, the Volume Indicator can tell you if the bears have lost, which on the left hand side, they clearly lost as we went from Green to red to immediately Green again, showing the strength of the Bulls.
Education
by reiiss7
3
Buy when there's DRY blood in the StreetsBuy When There's Blood in the Street ... After the recent well known events in the financial market and the crypto market I recalled a quote by Baron Rothschild: "Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own." I would say this is very true; however, in the world of trading "Timing is Everything", don't just go blindly with the old saying, this is like the other saying "Catching a Falling Knife". Bottom line, we all have to stomach the ups and downs in the market, this is not for the faint at heart. The downturns are really good opportunities to buy cheap if you pay attention to the Market Structure, trust your indicators, and are disciplined with the money management policies. "Buy when there's blood in the Street ..." I would just wait until the blood is not fresh. It is not about catching the bottom, it is about buying at a discount, which is not the same. I personally use three main variables to time my entry and my exit, (1) Trend, (2) Momentum and (3) Volume. You don't really need more, although each trader has developed his/her own style, I show mine here. I sometimes use more indicators, but basically they measure the same variables from a customized perspective. For the sake of clarity, in this example I use regular popular and publicly available indicators, I use the simple Volume, the RSI, the MACD and the Madrid Ribbons. 1. Trend. "The trend is your friend until that freaking bend at the end". When we see the price structure we determine as simple as it is if there is an uptrend, downtrend, or trading range, the Madrid Ribbons is a very friendly indicator that visualize the direction of the trend at a glance, as long as it is in the green it means uptrend, if this turns from green to red it signals the end of a leg or a reversal of the trend. In this example there's a visible downtrend coming from 2019 when the Energy sector started its decline and a full working economy didn't need as much oil as when it needed a jumpstart. We can see from December 2018 until April 2019 there was a leg to the upside, this didn't last long, on May 2019 it didn't remain above the trendline for long and it kept on slowly bleeding until on January 2020 it collapsed and it broke down. The red ribbons continued until November 2020, when it visually showed a reversal. As simple as that. Follow the trend. 2. Momentum. In this article I use two momentum indicators, the popular RSI and MACD. There are tons of momentum indicators out there, I have coded myself several customized momentum indicators. The idea behind momentum is that momentum precedes the trend. Watch out, it is not "predicting", usually this tells that the direction of the trend is exhausting and it could possibly reverse. We must pay attention if the direction of the momentum is the same of the trend, and if it isn't then raise a momentum divergence flag. This is good to time the entries and exits. a) RSI. Let's look at the RSI on December 2018, it went from Oversold to reach Overbought levels on February 2019, this trip out from oversold signals a trend reversal, entering the trade on January 2nd, 2019 it would have been a great entry. The blood of the downtrend can weight in, trust the indicator and ride the leg. The RSI signals an exit on March 15th, 2019, with a juicy 15% in the leg, not risking to remain longer and not risking a falling knife in the downtrend. b) MACD. This indicator is on the negative side, which means there is a negative momentum going on. We're in a downtrend, remember?; however, it performs a crossover with the signal, which can be seen in the histogram, making it positive. We have a downtrend plus a positive momentum divergence. At the time the price crosses the trend we have a positive trend plus a positive momentum convergence, the Bulls are in control. this signals another entry. Riding the leg from the histogram crossover until the MACD histogram crosses down the Zero line gives us the same performance as the RSI on the same period. Look at the signal from MACD, the trend is still up, but the histogram is already negative, this signals a negative momentum divergence, it would be the time to take the money and run, preventing the main downtrend could continue. 3. Volume. Usually the volume is displayed in contrasting colors, green when the price bar goes up, red when it goes down. It's tricky, in order for the volume to exist there must be two sides, a buying and a selling side. I see it as volume is volume, and it denotes the interest of the market at a certain price level, I'm not too worried if it's red or green, I'm focused on whether there is high or low transactional activity. As you can see on December 21st, 2018 there was a volume peak that was increasing from the 13th and after the 18th it slowed down. There could have been a lot of sellers willing to take the exit when the prices declined, however there were not buyers to take their "garbage" and all of a sudden there are buyers at the lowest level willing to enter the trade on its way down, like kamikaze traders. The relative volume means those were not retail traders, but institutional traders who can get liquidity following the simple rule "buy on weakness, sell on strength". Another volume pattern is "Volume precedes momentum", a higher relative volume is needed to reverse a trend. So far we have this pattern, a downtrend with a low climatic volume, it's a No Go, it is still bleeding a lot. We wait until the relative volume increases meaningfully and the next sequence in the process is an exit from Oversold on the RSI or a Zero cross over to the positive side in the MACD histogram, next in the sequence is a trend reversal. Last but not least, money management, setup the entry - target - stop/trailing stop levels and ride the leg. Let's take a look at the second example, we still see the trend goes down. There are still some recover legs, that fail to break the trend to the upside, we see also the relative volume is low, so here the institutions are not committed and they patiently let the retail traders to consume themselves until the bid side dries up and the ask side has to settle for lower prices. Watch the period between January 2020 and the end of February 2020, the prices are in free fall, but the volume didn't react immediately, until the last part of February and early March, there was a peak that momentarily stopped the free fall and created a weak support, this was broken again, the number of sellers still overwhelm the buyers, and the climatic volume increases. This is the period when the institutional bulls are stepping in and they're buying the "garbage" that creates the kind of panic liquidity the institutions are looking for. At this time also the Bears are switching hats, they're closing their short positions and taking profits. Once the selling volume dries up, which can be seen when the relative volume slows down. This is the point when the bleeding in the market stops and we look for the signals in the Momentum indicators, we see at the end of March 2020 the RSI indicator escaped the Oversold area and the MACD histogram made a crossover the Zero line, in a very strong histogram. Both indicators flash a strong buy. This is the dry blood we're looking for. Emotionally it takes a toll, we just came from a strong downtrend and the fear that this it's not over yet is there. The fear that the heal is temporary and we're just stepping on a weak support is there. If we set the emotions aside and we trust the indicators and a good set of rules of disciplined money management, we can exploit the opportunities of a downturn. _____________________________________ “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” ~Sir John Templeton
NYSE:XOMEducation
by Madrid
11
The power of the VWAP!As day traders we use the VWAP lots in our trading and have even created custom versions of it which help us manage our trades. In this video I go over exactly what happened to US30 / Down Jones at the Frankfurt open and the New York open, and by using the VWAP today we could have taken advantage of these moves, both up and down! Do you use the VWAP? Let us know in the comments below! Also attached to this video are other educaitonal videos you might find value in!
OANDA:US30USDEducation
by PrimedGroup
Weekly Line Chart DivergencesHello traders, I am not a financial advisor. I am not telling you to trade any asset. I am simply sharing my ideas on how to use tools to implement my own investment strategy. Here is a zoomed-out look you can use to come up with some of your own ideas on where the $SPX may go and how to manage your risk. Most of my core strategies are developed on the indices so I will have to implement them on individual tickers unless the comments are interesting. This is a lagging indicator and should put me on the side of the trade that is *probably* likely to continue. By probably, I mean you need to do your own research and look at what the markets want to go and develop your own tools to work with the data. Orientation: Line Chart of ticker on weekly time frame RSI using 12 periods (or weeks, in this case) Signals can be marked using a vertical line or time-based axis marker . In this case, I am using 3 colors of lines, explained by the "Monday Action" legend. We will dive into more detail later on. I also have EMA using ohlc4 on periods (or weeks) 10, 25, 50, 100, 200. Now to the good stuff: Divergences have been around for quite some time. Research about the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and it's roots It is much easier to see something that is larger, than smaller, thus we look at weekly time frames One can use volume, closing price and RSI to help manage one's risk Narrowing a decision to 3 choices can help alleviate indecision So for this application of the RSI and divergence, one can use a simple line chart on a weekly time frame (this chart is based on the closing price from what I can tell, but I was unable to confirm that with the Help Center. I was able to confirm by checking yesterday's close with current reading - it will be different after this post as the weekly close will come in today (writing before market close Friday morning)). We can start at the March 2020 rally. We can see the March 23rd, 2020 weekly close paint a divergence on the RSI. One can see the price close at a higher high when compared to March, 16th, 2020. The RSI values remain relatively flat: 17.95 to 18.04. Find entry One might conclude this is a time to buy. Because of the magnitude of the move DOWN, the move up was also shorted. One would have to employ the use of other tools in order to find entry in the following week. (Use the white anchored notes to see the explanations of thought process). Find an entry in the next week. One can place orders on the weekend in "shotgun fashion" perhaps placing 50% order above current price and 50% below, or whatever method suits you. Hedge Risk The next yellow line is 08/24 - 31/2020. The close indicates indecision in the market. Since this is the first divergence I would simply hedge the FANTASTIC long during the March 2020 buy. This can help to be determined from YELLOW vs RED using the 10 period moving-average of volume. Use options or other means to protect one's long investments Sell of Heavy Hedge The next divergence is JAN 2021. This is the second one so I would probably sell at this point. I would use my other tools to figure out what to do. Heavy hedging can be using derivatives or shorting your long positions. Timing A simple way to use this strategy might be to use the color's GREEN, YELLOW, RED, just like traffic lights. There will be deviations, and variations to the method, but if you back-test this you will probably find this works generally well. Monday Action Now I used the words Monday Action simply because that was the next possible day to make a decision. I can make my decision probably anytime within Friday if I feel comfortable with it. I can also place actions for Monday on the weekend. Bottom Line This week's close is very important. If we follow the green, yellow, red method from above, this very well can be a RED. It can also be another YELLOW. Volume is indicating something big, but we will see!
SP:SPXEducation
by elkenpolar
Options flow predicting moves on Derivatives (Futures)Options have been and are an important instrument on the financial market for a trader trading Intraday Futures. Therefore, while exploring the mechanics of the option market over the last several months, as a result of work, indicators were created that load data from Quandl and then look for patterns that may herald a change of direction on the derivative market - in this case Futures Contracts. There are two main types of Options: CALL - allow their owner to buy a given product in the future at a predetermined price (Strike Price) PUT - allow you to sell this product at a predetermined price (Strike Price) By observing the market volumes of both types of Options, we can observe the sentiment of investors. The key factors are which volume (call or put) prevail in the volume and the dynamics of the volume - what is the trend on volume, whether the difference between them increases or decreases. In addition, the Put / Call Ratio analysis allows you to confirm or negate the signals from the Option volume. The Ratio indicator behaves inversely to the price movement - in the case of a bearish sentiment, we expect the ratio to increase, and in the case of bullish sentiment - the indicator should decrease. If the Ratio follows the price in the same direction, it is an anomaly. Of course, the mere observation of the Option volumes and the Put / Call ratio is not sufficient, as the Options Market is a much more complicated activity. It is worth including in the calculations such factors as Expiration Date, Bonus Amount, option type (In the Money, Out of Money or At the Money). Not each of the factors is equally important, therefore the key is additionally the appropriate selection of the weighting factors. For this purpose, due to the multitude of data, it is worth using Machine Learning, which I also do by saving the resulting data in a dataset in Quandl and displaying the data in TradingView using Pine Script. Below are some additional examples from recent sessions on ES showing the predictive nature of the Option sentiment, often preceding major movements in the ES index (during the spot session): First, from the left, the session from November 15 is shown and an opportunity to play Short. On the right, the session from November 16 and an opportunity to play the Long position this time. Session from November 10, where we first got the Bull's signal, and at the top we got a warning signal of traffic reversal and the possibility of entering Short: And one of my favorite moves on November 3:
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by skyline-trader
Regressive VWAP Breakout StrategyStrategy type: Breakout Ingredients: Price, Volume, Regression Prerequisite add-ons (free): Regressive VWAP and Strategy Visualizer Target market: CME:BTC1! or BITSTAMP:BTCUSD - Long Entry on Close crossing over Regressive VWAP - Short Entry on Close crossing under Regressive VWAP - Optional: exit when price retraces to upper band (LX) or lower band (SX) The key to this breakout strategy is the Regressive VWAP, which weighs Price and Volume with Regression Analysis, making the slope and its bands more responsive, with a degree of mean reversion. Below is another example, this time CME_MINI:ES1! .
CME:BTC1!Education
by ChartVPS
Regressive VWAP Band Buffer Strategy on GC 10RRequired add-on (free): NEXT Regressive VWAP Target market: COMEX:GC1! 10R chart Strategy Overview: - Long when price crosses upper band (green) - Short when price crosses lower band (red) - Do not initiate trades in the buffer zone (between the bands) - that is our filter Setting Alerts: Here is how to set price (close) crossing band alerts: open a chart, attach NEXT Regressive VWAP, and right-click on chart -> Add Alert. Condition: Symbol, e.g. ES (representing the close) >> Crossing >> Regressive VWAP >> Upper ( or Lower) Band >> Once Per Bar Close.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by ChartVPS
Volume Profile (Top 3 Reasons To Use Value Area Trading)Top 3 Reasons To Use Value Area Trading (on Volume Profile) 1) Plots on a vertical scale and gives you a specific price level where the most volume has occurred. 2) You gain far more information about price levels and volume. 3) Most importantly: Makes it easier to sport institutional support and resistance levels. Why is it important to know where 70% of trading volume? Because retailer traders need to know where large institutional or big banks are buying and selling and need to trade with them, not against them. POC or point of control is the LINE on chart is the largest volume by institutional traders- on the chart. Largest horizontal line. *IF price action is above point of control- then trade bullish or buy *IF price action is below point of control- then trade bearish or sell You can see thin volume outside of the value area, where price action moves quickly thru areas into value areas. You can use last couple or few days to find volume profiles or value areas to determine where price action might go too.
Education
by Anbat
2
Volume Profile Basic Shapes (Thin Profile) #4-#4Thin Profile (See Chart)- Indicates a trend One side of the market is very aggressive No time to accumulate volumes Volume clusters within the thin volume profile In Forex- most of the time with major pairs- means imbalance which is a great trade to do apposite of that move, in minor Forex pairs means very little liquidity and volume and means harder to trade due to the lack of big banks and hedges involved with a particular pair.
Education
by Anbat
Volume Profile (Point Of Control) #1POC (Point Of Control) line POC= Point Of Control (place where most volumes got traded) POC= Place where institutions were accumulating their positions the most. Significant reference point for market participants Most important place in any Volume Profile (no matter the time frame and shape) Volume Profile is thickest there Big Banks and Hedges can not hide their FOOTPRINTS of what price they are accumulating positions at with the Volume Profile. Keep trading Easy- one way is by using a Volume profile. IF you have pro or premium level here at Trading view- try it with naked charts (nothing on them except the volume profile)- four choices in indicator settings. I like under volume profile either the fixed and/or session ones- but experiment and do some back testing- might change way you trade.
Education
by Anbat
2
Sea Ltd stock analysis w/ boxes and Volume ProfileHi everyone, This time I am analyzing NYSE:SE stock movement using volume profile besides my usual boxes setup. NYSE:SE stock price has shown very persistent up-trend strenght for the past year. When we have the equity soaring up like NYSE:SE does, it is helpful to use Volume Profile to see a bigger picture. I added three volume profiles for different timeframes: 9 months, 5 months and 2 months. What does it show us? As we can see in the past 9 months the biggest trading volume occured around 273 level. That is where our long-term POC is. However, a decent volume profile started developing from 308 level and above. For the last 4 months the highest volume has been seen at 323 level. Both 2 and 4 month profiles have universal volume distribution with same POC level. That means that higher price level has been accepted and stock is consolidated on a higher time-frame. What now? As volume profile is dynamic, I expect long-term POC to migrate to 320 level. However, for that to happen we will need to see a lot of volume at 320, which is 7% lower than the current price. AND that would be happening at the uptrend support line, which is dangerous. IF that is broken, we could see a return to 273 POC to repair long-term profile structure. IF we continue higher from here, we would get unevenely distributed profile, which could be bad in the long-run. Let me know what you think of NYSE:SE movement and if it is sustainable. Trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise.
NYSE:SEEducation
by AyBe_Invest
2
TA 101: Understanding VolumeVolume represents the total amount of trading activity in that market for that timeframe. The volume is an indicator of great importance and helps us with crucial information on selling or buying the stock. General rules: Volume is an independent variable from price. Volume typically goes with the trend. For example, in a bullish cycle, the up volume is usually larger than down volumes. There is no forecasting value in this. If we have a growing trend, we also have a strong growth trend and then a volume in the stock market or forex trading. So a combination of rising volume and the rising price is normal. Volume divergence : Volume normally leads price during a bull move. A now high that is not confirmed by volume should be regarded as a red flag. This is called volume divergence. Volume divergence is abnormal and either warns of an impending trend reversal or emphasizes the significance of any breakouts. Total disinterest : When the price volatility shrinks to almost nothing, and volume does the same this indicates total disinterest. When the situation is finally resolved, this is often followed by an above-average price move. The quieter the price and volume action relative to preceding downtrend, the more explosive the subsequent rally is likely to be. Very narrow trading range indicates buyers and sellers evenly matched. Extremely low volume indicates fine technical balance. Price decline and volume expand as a bearish signal and vice versa. Bearish Signs Parabolic blow-off is an event when the price hits ATH and the Volume explodes and is as large as last a few days of trading combined. This is a bearish sign! Rising volume on a downside breakout of moving averages or trend lines is a bearish sign. Sideway trend with increasing volume which is happening after a recent uptrend is considered a bearish signal. Small rounding top price movement with rounding bottom volume is abnormal and is a bearish signal. Bullish Signs: Selling climax is the opposite of parabolic blow-off. It occurs when the price falls under a certain level and panic selling is triggered. That is a bullish sign. Low volume at lower prices is a bullish sign. This could occur in double bottoms or bear market when the price goes slightly lower than the previous trough, but the volume is significantly lower at the new low. Heavy volume on a sideway trend after a decline is usually a very reliable signal that the bottom has reached.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALEducation
by MarkitMaven
4
Can You Profit Day Trading? YesKeep Trading Simple!!! Volume is the heart of trading Forex. This tells us how much interest is in a candle or at a price level zone- where big money and hedge firms are trading. On chart example: London and NY session overlap is a very high liquidity and volume time every day to trade. Only 4 hour period. Use only: 1) Simple Volume indicator 2) Session indicator 3) Bolliger Bands indicator Rules are: 1) Is price action over a critical price action level? yes- 1.55000 2) Is price action over 20 ema of Bolliger Bands? yes- over yellow line 3) Use ATR for stop loss, entry and targets- this is something that all Forex traders should know on pair that is being trader. 4) On chart is 25 pip stop vs 62.5 pip is risk reward 1:2.5 setup 5) Only find setup at around start of London/NY overlap and trade during this 4 hour time period. Close all trades at end on London session.
Education
by Anbat
Smart Money (Volume Spread Analysis) Works In Forex!!!Trading in the shadow of Smart Money. Learn to trade in the same direction. If you are going to play it You better understand it. The Masters & Teachers of the Wyckoff Method & Volume Spread Analysis: Tom Williams and Richard Wyckoff. If you put on your charts just daily charts with the On Balance Volume indicator only (or Tick volume) - might change how you look at and trade Forex. The chart never lies!!! The “Smart Money” Trade Large Enough Size To Actually Affect the Price Movement of the Instrument Being Traded and Can Change the Trend of Price But They CANNOT Hide Their Footprints on a Chart When You Learn VOLUME SPREAD ANALYSIS What Is Volume Spread Analysis? Most traders are aware of the two widely known approaches used to analyze a market- fundamental analysis and technical analysis.Volume Spread Analysis, however, is a third approach to analyzing a market. It combines the best of both fundamental and technical analysis into a singular approach that answers both questions of 'why' and 'when' simultaneously.Smart Money buy or sell they cannot hide their volume footprint (although they try!!) At it’s core, Volume Spread Analysis or VSA is a methodology based on the original works and teachings of Richard D Wyckoff, a trader in the early 1900’s. The methodology seeks to establish the “cause” of price movement on a chart. The “cause” is simply the imbalance of supply and demand as the market trades, resulting in strength or weakness in the market being charted. For the correct analysis of volume, you need to understand that the recorded volume contains only half the knowledge required for a correct analysis. The other half of the knowledge is found when observing the spread (or range) of the price bar and the closing price on that bar. Volume indicates the amount of activity on the price bar and the spread or range of the bar shows what the price actually did, and most importantly where the price finally closed. FYI: Please you tube and/or google VSA more- this will simplify Forex trading. How Can Volume Spread Analysis Identify These Moves? Volume = Activity. Interested in volume because it tells consensus of opinion among “Smart Money” Spread and Close in Relation to the background Confirm
Education
by Anbat
Momentum play on NQ 45-min via volume-weighted RSIOverview Simple overbought-oversold momentum play using NEXT RSI , which blends volume analysis with momentum. Volume weighing of the algo reduces the lag and improves accuracy over vanilla RSI as volume often precedes price action. This is a contra-trend (momentum exhaustion) scalping strategy - use order management (TP, SL, trailing stops) and do not trade signal to signal (e.g. long-short-long) . Strategy Rules: - NQ Futures, 45min chart - Long Entry when NEXT RSI crosses over 35 - Short Entry when NEXT RSI crosses under 65 Order Management: - Take profit @ +$50 - Stop Loss @ -$50 Prerequisites and set-up: - NEXT RSI configured to 21,3,65,50,35 - NEXT Strategy Visualizer configured to Signal Source: NEXT RSI, LE @ 35, SE @ 65
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by ChartVPS