AAPL: Cup with Handle Base to study for Future tradesThis is used in conjunction with the Stocks Over Coffee Podcast on Technical Education Cup with Handles.
Apple is the largest company in the world with a market cap of 2 trillion. This is no easy feat to accomplish but is there a way to get into a small company before it becomes a household name? There is! One just has to notice the cup and handle base and a few other things. First thing you want to make sure is the fundamentals are working. This means you want the company to be growing sales and earnings. This mean the company has a minimum of 25% sales and earnings for the last two quarters. Apple meets the earnings easily but sales can be forgiven since they are generating 100%+ increases quarter over quarter as shown below:
Quarterly Sales
Jun03: +8%
Sep03: +19%
Dec03: +36%
EPS Quarterly
Jun03: +300%
Sep03: +433%
Dec03: +350%
Once the fundamentals are researched you want to make sure that there is a technical setup that is done by institutions. First you can look into the daily $ volume. if the daily $ volume has at least 40mm in activity per day then you can go to the next step or looking for the technical setup. In this tutorial we are looking for a cup with handle setup and Apple will be used for the tutorial. In the Cup with Handle base these are the criteria below:
1. Minimum 30% Prior up trend
2. Cup Base from 7 weeks to 65 weeks
3. Cup Depth below 30%
4. Handle Base with minimum 2 weeks
5. Handle Depth below 15%
Once the check list is done then you can set your buy point. Once the buy triggers then you can confirm at the end of the day if the price is above the pivot point and if the volume is 50% above average. If both of these are great then at the end of the week on Friday you can check the weekly volume is also 50% above average volume then you are good to hold for two major sell rules. The two sell rules I use are
1. 25% Profit Target (CAGR of 115%)
2. Break Below 10 Week Moving Average (CAGR of 156%) 185% Profit
Both of them did great on an annual basis and on a price adjusted yearly basis for this Apple play. How do you decide on the sell rules? It depends on your individual rules and psychology.
Thank you for reading the write up.
Volume
Classic Double Top, Bear Flag & 5-0 Pattern lined up all-in-one.Classic Double Top, Bear Flag & 5-0 Pattern lined up all-in-one. What could it signify? Am I just transposing an image onto a market that is not really a reflection of reality? Let's see.
Short NDUSD:
Reasons:
Classic Double Top, Bear Flag & 5-0 Pattern lined up together
volume confirmed the double top
Intermarket confirmation: It appears as though the US Dollar has found support and will rally: s3.amazonaws.com
Inside Bars on the 8 hour chart. Thus, expect a volatility expansion:
MACD Divergence
Do chart patterns work? Well, they certainly gives the trader a disciplined method for attacking the markets. Chart patterns can prevent the trader from overtrading. Certainly, if a chart pattern confirms something fundamental or if one believe it confirms something from sentiment or intermarket analysis, then go for it with proper risk management.
The market does NOT care about your target.DISCLAIMER: Trading Forex involves risk and you may lose more money than you started with! These posts are not to be taken as trade recommendations or financial advice and I offer NO guarantee that any of these ideas will result in profit. Also, trade ideas may change, depending on ever-changing market conditions. You are trading at your own risk and past performance is NOT indicative of future results. Please, know how much you are willing to risk on EVERY trade that you take and be SMART!
Simplify your trading. Always measure your risk and be okay with being wrong ; ) Wait patiently and get the price that you want. Use the market. Don't let the market use you.
Risk:Reward - Utilize the lower time frame charts!DISCLAIMER: Trading Forex involves risk and you may lose more money than you started with! These posts are not to be taken as trade recommendations or financial advice and I offer NO guarantee that any of these ideas will result in profit. Also, trade ideas may change, depending on ever-changing market conditions. You are trading at your own risk and past performance is NOT indicative of future results. Please, know how much you are willing to risk on EVERY trade that you take and be SMART!
Simplify your trading. Always measure your risk and be okay with being wrong ; ) Wait patiently and get the price that you want. Use the market. Don't let the market use you.
Analysis: Using the McGinley, Hull and Renkos together!DISCLAIMER: Trading Forex involves risk and you may lose more money than you started with! These posts are not to be taken as trade recommendations or financial advice and I offer NO guarantee that any of these ideas will result in profit. Also, trade ideas may change, depending on ever-changing market conditions. You are trading at your own risk and past performance is NOT indicative of future results. Please, know how much you are willing to risk on EVERY trade that you take and be SMART!
Simplify your trading. Always measure your risk and be okay with being wrong ; ) Wait patiently and get the price that you want. Use the market. Don't let the market use you.
EURJPY - Using indicators to make a sound decision on directionDISCLAIMER: Trading Forex involves risk and you may lose more money than you started with! These posts are not to be taken as trade recommendations or financial advice and I offer NO guarantee that any of these ideas will result in profit. Also, trade ideas may change, depending on ever-changing market conditions. You are trading at your own risk and past performance is NOT indicative of future results. Please, know how much you are willing to risk on EVERY trade that you take and be SMART!
Simplify your trading. Always measure your risk and be okay with being wrong ; ) Wait patiently and get the price that you want. Use the market. Don't let the market use you.
Evolution of MACDMoving Average Convergence Divergence – MACD
The most popular indicator used in technical analysis, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD), created by Gerald Appel. MACD is a trend-following momentum indicator, designed to reveal changes in the strength, direction, momentum, and duration of a trend in a financial instrument’s price
Historical evolution of MACD,
- Gerald Appel created the MACD line,
- Thomas Aspray added the histogram feature to MACD
- Giorgos E. Siligardos created a leader of MACD
MACD employs two Moving Averages of varying lengths (which are lagging indicators) to identify trend direction and duration. Then, MACD takes the difference in values between those two Moving Averages (MACD Line) and an EMA of those Moving Averages (Signal Line) and plots that difference between the two lines as a histogram which oscillates above and below a center Zero Line. The histogram is used as a good indication of a security's momentum.
Mathematically expressed as;
macd = ma(source, fast_length) – ma(source, slow_length)
signal = ma(macd, signal_length)
histogram = macd – signal
where exponential moving average (ema) is in common use as a moving average (ma)
fast_length = 12
slow_length = 26
signal_length = 9
The MACD indicator is typically good for identifying three types of basic signals;
Signal Line Crossovers
A Signal Line Crossover is the most common signal produced by the MACD. On the occasions where the MACD Line crosses above or below the Signal Line, that can signify a potentially strong move. The standard interpretation of such an event is a recommendation to buy if the MACD line crosses up through the Signal Line (a "bullish" crossover), or to sell if it crosses down through the Signal Line (a "bearish" crossover). These events are taken as indications that the trend in the financial instrument is about to accelerate in the direction of the crossover.
Zero Line Crossovers
Zero Line Crossovers occur when the MACD Line crossed the Zero Line and either becomes positive (above 0) or negative (below 0). A change from positive to negative MACD is interpreted as "bearish", and from negative to positive as "bullish". Zero crossovers provide evidence of a change in the direction of a trend but less confirmation of its momentum than a signal line crossover
Divergence
Divergence is another signal created by the MACD. Simply, divergence occurs when the MACD and actual price are not in agreement. A "positive divergence" or "bullish divergence" occurs when the price makes a new low but the MACD does not confirm with a new low of its own. A "negative divergence" or "bearish divergence" occurs when the price makes a new high but the MACD does not confirm with a new high of its own. A divergence with respect to price may occur on the MACD line and/or the MACD Histogram
Moving Average Crossovers , another hidden signal that MACD Indicator identifies
Many traders will watch for a short-term moving average to cross above a longer-term moving average and use this to signal increasing upward momentum. This bullish crossover suggests that the price has recently been rising at a faster rate than it has in the past, so it is a common technical buy sign. Conversely, a short-term moving average crossing below a longer-term average is used to illustrate that the asset's price has been moving downward at a faster rate and that it may be a good time to sell.
Moving Average Crossovers in reality is Zero Line Crossovers, the value of the MACD indicator is equal to zero each time the two moving averages cross over each other. For easy interpretation by trades, Zero Line Crossovers are simply described as positive or negative MACD
False signals
Like any forecasting algorithm, the MACD can generate false signals. A false positive, for example, would be a bullish crossover followed by a sudden decline in a financial instrument. A false negative would be a situation where there is bearish crossover, yet the financial instrument accelerated suddenly upwards
What is “MACD-X” and Why it is “More Than MACD”
In its simples form, MACD-X implements variety of different calculation techniques applied to obtain MACD Line, ability to use of variety of different sources, including Volume related sources, and can be plotted along with MACD in the same window and all those features are available and presented within a single indicator, MACD-X
Different calculation techniques lead to different values for MACD Line, as will further discuss below, and as a consequence the signal line and the histogram values will differentiate accordingly. Mathematical calculation of both signal line and the histogram remain the same.
Main features of MACD-X ;
1- Introduces different proven techniques applied on MACD calculation, such as MACD-Histogram, MACD-Leader and MACD-Source, besides the traditional MACD (MACD-TRADITIONAL)
• MACD-Traditional, by Gerald Appel
It is the MACD that we know, stated as traditional just to avoid confusion with other techniques used with this study
• MACD-Histogram, by Thomas Aspray
The MACD-Histogram measures the distance between MACD and its signal line (the 9-day EMA of MACD). Aspray developed the MACD-Histogram to anticipate signal line crossovers in MACD. Because MACD uses moving averages and moving averages lag price, signal line crossovers can come late and affect the reward-to-risk ratio of a trade. Bullish or bearish divergences in the MACD-Histogram can alert chartists to an imminent signal line crossover in MACD
The MACD-Histogram represents the difference between MACD and its 9-day EMA, the signal line. Mathematically,
macdx = macd - ma(macd, signal_length)
Aspray's contribution served as a way to anticipate (and therefore cut down on lag) possible MACD crossovers which are a fundamental part of the indicator.
Here come a question, what if repeat the same calculations once more (macdh2 = macdh - ma(macdh, signal_length), will it be even better, this question will remain to be tested
• MACD-Leader, by Giorgos E. Siligardos, PhD
MACD Leader has the ability to lead MACD at critical situations. Almost all smoothing methods encounter in technical analysis are based on a relative-weighted sum of past prices, and the Leader is no exception. The concealed weights of MACD Leader are such that more relative weight is used in the more recent prices than the respective weights used by the components of MACD. In effect, the Leader expresses more changes in average price dynamics for the recent price movement than MACD, thus eventually leading MACD, especially when significant trend changes are about to take place.
Siligardos creates two less-laggard moving averages indicators in its formula using the same periods as follows
Indicator1 = ma(source, fast_length) + ma(source - ma(source, fast_length), fast_length)
Indicator2 = ma(source, slow_length) + ma(source - ma(source, slow_length), slow_length)
and then take the difference:
Indicator1 - Indicator2
The result is a new MACD Leader indicator
macdx = macd + ma(source - fast_ma, fast_length) - ma(source - slow_ma, slow_length)
• MACD-Source, a custom experimental interpretation of mine,
MACD Source, presents an application of MACD that evaluates Source/MA Ratio, relatively with less lag, as a basis for MACD Line, also can be expressed as source convergence/divergence to its moving average. Among the various techniques for removing the lag between price and moving average (MA) of the price, one in particular stands out: the addition to the moving average of a portion of the difference between the price and MA. MACD Source, is based on signal length mean of the difference between Source and average value of shot length and long length moving average of the source (Source/MA Ratio), where the source is actual value and hence no lag and relatively less lag with the average value of moving average of the source . Mathematically expressed as,
macdx = ma(source - avg( ma(source, fast_length), ma(source, slow_length) ), signal_length)
MACD Source provides relatively early crossovers comparing to MACD and better momentum direction indications, assuming the lengths are set to same values
For further details, you are invited to check the following two studies, where the first seeds were sown of the MACD-Source idea
Price Distance to its Moving Averages study, adapts the idea of “Prices high above the moving average (MA) or low below it are likely to be remedied in the future by a reverse price movement", presented in an article by Denis Alajbeg, Zoran Bubas and Dina Vasic published in International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management
First MACD like interpretation comes with the second study named as “P-MACD”, where P stands for price, P-MACD study attempts to display relationship between Price and its 20 and 200-period moving average. Calculations with P-MACD were based on price distance (convergence/divergence) to its 200-period moving average, and moving average convergence/divergence of 20-period moving average to 200-period moving average of price.
Now as explained above, MACD Source is a one adapted with traditional MACD, where Source stands for Price, Volume Indicator etc, any source applicable with MACD concept
2- Allows usage of variety of different sources, including Volume related indicators
The most common usage of Source for MACD calculation is close value of the financial instruments price. As an experimental approach, this study will allow source to be selected as one of the following series;
• Current Close Price (close)
• Average of High, Low, and Close Price (hlc3)
• On Balance Volume (obv)
• Accumulation Distribution (accdist)
• Price Volume Trend (pvt)
Where,
-Current Close Price and Average of High, Low, and Close Price are price actions of the financial instrument
-Accumulation Distribution is a volume based indicator designed to measure underlying supply and demand
-On Balance Volume (OBV), is a momentum indicator that measures positive and negative volume flow
-Price Volume Trend (PVT) is a momentum based indicator used to measure money flow
3- Can be plotted along with MACD in the same window using the same scaling
Default setting of MACD-X will display MACD-Source with Current Close Price as a source and traditional MACD can be plotted eighter as a companion of MACD-X or can be selected to be plotted alone.
Applying both will add ability to compare, or use as a confirmation of one other
In case, traditional MACD Is plotted along with MACD-X to avoid misinterpreting, the lines plotted, the area between MACD-X Line and Signal-X Line is highlighted automatically, even if the highlight option not selected. Otherwise highlight will be applied only if that option selected
4- 4C Histogram
Histogram is plotted with four colors to emphasize the momentum and direction
5- Customizable
Additional to ability of selecting Calculation Method, Source, plotting along with MACD, there are few other option that allows users to customize the MACD-X indicator
Lengths are configurable, default values are set as 12, 26, 9 respectively for fast, slow and smoothing length. Setting lengths to 8,21,5 respectively Is worth checking, slower length moving averages will lead to less lag and earlier reaction to price actions but yet requires a caution and back testing before applying
Highlight the area between MACD-X Line and Signal-X Line, with colors emphasising the direction
Label can be added to display Calculation Method, Source and Length settings, the aim of this label is to server only as a reminder to trades to be aware of settings while they are occupied with charts, analysis etc.
Here comes another question, which is of more importance having the reminder or having the indicators with multi timeframe feature? Build-in Multi Time Frame features of Pine is not supported when labels and lines introduced in the script, there are other methods but brings complexity. To be studied further, this version will be with labels for time being.
EPILOGUE
MACD-X is an alternative variant of MACD, the insight/signals provided by MACD are also applicable to MACD-X with early and clear warnings for the changes in the trend.
If MACD is essential to your analysis, then it is my guess that after using the MACD-X for a while and familiarizing yourself with its unique character and personality, you will make it an inseparable companion to other indicators in your charts.
The various signals generated by MACD/MACD-X are easily interpreted and very few indicators in technical analysis have proved to be more reliable than the MACD, and this relatively simple indicator can quickly be incorporated into any short-term trading strategy
EURNZD - Greed kills...DISCLAIMER: Trading Forex involves risk and you may lose more money than you started with! These posts are not to be taken as trade recommendations or financial advice and I offer NO guarantee that any of these ideas will result in profit. Also, trade ideas may change, depending on ever-changing market conditions. You are trading at your own risk and past performance is NOT indicative of future results. Please, know how much you are willing to risk on EVERY trade that you take and be SMART!
Simplify your trading. Always measure your risk and be okay with being wrong ; ) Wait patiently and get the price that you want. Use the market. Don't let the market use you.
A picture of divergence. Make sure it's there before jumping in!DISCLAIMER: Trading Forex involves risk and you may lose more money than you started with! These posts are not to be taken as trade recommendations or financial advice and I offer NO guarantee that any of these ideas will result in profit. Also, trade ideas may change, depending on ever-changing market conditions. You are trading at your own risk and past performance is NOT indicative of future results. Please, know how much you are willing to risk on EVERY trade that you take and be SMART!
Simplify your trading. Always measure your risk and be okay with being wrong ; ) Wait patiently and get the price that you want. Use the market. Don't let the market use you.
EURUSD 19 AUGUST 2020 RSI to ID accumulation in uptrend.RSI has recently become part of my style. I spent over a year learning how to identify the actions of smart money using volume. Understanding where something is and why its doing what its doing does not require RSI or any other indicator other than volume. I highly recommend that if this is a profession you truly want to pursue, you must spend some time understand volume. Volume is what moves price. With volume, you can very precisely see wether or not buying or selling is active or not. This is arguably the most important thing to understand in the markets and about 99% of people don't, including "experts"... and its actually not that hard.
Imagine volume as energy.
Energy can be stored (accumulated) and/or released (distributed).
If you haven't familiarised yourself with Richard Wyckoff's accumulation and distribution schematics please DDgo them (or google). If you follow me and look and my analysis (thank you very much by the way!) you are probably already familiar with the way I explain things and how I swear by VSA/Wyckoff.
RSI settings are slightly adjusted to increase sensitivity. I find these setting very reliable for signalling particularly on the 15 minute and in Forex (still working out some settings with digital).
I highlighted the areas of accumulation/re-accumulation. What is critical to understand is that we are only using the 1 hour to judge the condition of the trend (bearish or bullish) and not for entry. The 5 and 15 are used for entry because the smaller time frames convey greater detail. Within those two times frames you can begin more of a range analysis versus a trend analysis (will build on that concept in another chart).
Once RSI is below the median line (50 level or a MA) in a positively identified up trend, you can start looking for phase "A" ( selling climax, preliminary support, automatic rally and secondary test). once these are identified the trading range has been established and you can begin looking for phases "C" and "D" for a possible no supply entry after a spring ( or on the spring if you are really good with your risk management).
Again, use RSI for your trend analysis to identify these critical pullback areas and never chase.
Inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern using BTCUSDThe head and shoulders chart pattern is a price reversal pattern that helps traders identify when a reversal may be underway after a trend is exhausted. It is of two types: Head & Shoulder and Inverse Head & Shoulder. This reversal could signal an end of an uptrend or downtrend. (Inverse Head & Shoulder with an end to downtrend in this case)
Inverse Head & Shoulder:
An inverse head & shoulder pattern is comprised of three main components:
-After a long bearish trend, the price falls to a trough and subsequently rises to a peak
-The price again falls to form a second trough substantially below the initial low and rises again to the same peak
-The price falls for the third time but to the level of the first trough only before rising back to the same peak again
In this chart pattern there are three trough in which a large trough (the head i.e. the second trough) has a slightly smaller trough on either side of it (right and left shoulder that are the first and third peak), with all of the trough increasing to a same level of resistance i.e. the peak until where all the troughs had risen, called as neckline in the pattern.
Once the third trough (right shoulder) moves back to neckline it is likely to breakout to a bullish uptrend indicating a trend reversal hereby, which is the basic explanation of Head and Shoulder.
Traders can use Inverse head and shoulder to buy when the breakout is observed i.e. at the neckline after the right shoulder reached there completing the Inverse Head & Shoulder formation. For confirmation traders can use the drop in volume as the Inverse Head & Shoulder is forming and a sudden increase in the volume as breakout is observed suggesting a shift from sellers before the pattern to buyers after the pattern.
There are few limitations as well to the Head & Shoulder Pattern:
-Sometimes false breakouts might be observed
-The time duration for formation of the pattern might be too long
-Trough or peak might be pretty far from the neckline resulting in large stop loss distances which might have o reviewed consistently
-The price may see pullback after the third peak or trough often confusing few traders
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- Mudrex
Bricks with Wicks! - How to spot a possible fakeout...DISCLAIMER: Trading Forex involves risk and you may lose more money than you started with! These posts are not to be taken as trade recommendations or financial advice and I offer NO guarantee that any of these ideas will result in profit. Also, trade ideas may change, depending on ever-changing market conditions. You are trading at your own risk and past performance is NOT indicative of future results. Please, know how much you are willing to risk on EVERY trade that you take and be SMART!
Simplify your trading. Always measure your risk and be okay with being wrong ; ) Wait patiently and get the price that you want. Use the market. Don't let the market use you.
EURUSD Lazy Bear color volume (reference)Inverted color scheme for the LB colored volume.
Green to red (suggesting supply)
Red to green (suggesting demand)
Blackened out the off hour/low volume areas.
Using the indicator in this way may help as a visual aid to convey the "path of least resistance" concept.
RSI can also help if confused as to where the volume is coming from (sellers or buyers).
How to anticipate where the range may form!DISCLAIMER: Trading Forex involves risk and you may lose more money than you started with! These posts are not to be taken as trade recommendations or financial advice and I offer NO guarantee that any of these ideas will result in profit. Also, trade ideas may change, depending on ever-changing market conditions. You are trading at your own risk and past performance is NOT indicative of future results. Please, know how much you are willing to risk on EVERY trade that you take and be SMART!
Simplify your trading. Always measure your risk and be okay with being wrong ; ) Wait patiently and get the price that you want. Use the market. Don't let the market use you.
Looking for Hull 10/McGinley 10 Crossovers!DISCLAIMER: Trading Forex involves risk and you may lose more money than you started with! These posts are not to be taken as trade recommendations or financial advice and I offer NO guarantee that any of these ideas will result in profit. Also, trade ideas may change, depending on ever-changing market conditions. You are trading at your own risk and past performance is NOT indicative of future results. Please, know how much you are willing to risk on EVERY trade that you take and be SMART!
Simplify your trading. Always measure your risk and be okay with being wrong ; ) Wait patiently and get the price that you want. Use the market. Don't let the market use you.
XRPUSDT 29 JULY (how to recognise traps)For a more detailed/professional explanation websearch Wyckoff Spring/upthrust.
In general these trap moves are going to present as a break outside of the trading range boundary with a quick reaction back into that range.
Make note of the volume that accommodates this move... The greater the better.
Not always indicative of a reversal, but should serve as a warning that price may not continue in that specific direction.
This is exactly why you want to avoid chasing as price nears the trading range boundary.
In an uptrend you are looking for entry's nearing or below support (below median)
In a downtrend you are looking for entry's nearing or above resistance (above median)
What you also want to do is:
Avoid buying into weakness/resistance/supply
Avoid selling into strength/support/demand
Avoid entry in the middle of the TR
Trendlines, Volume and FibonacciTrendlines are the simplest chart pattern you can find, but they are some of the most widely used, and for good reason.
They highlight a price trend going up, down, or sideways. Which therefore will be used for further analysis and other chart patterns, but what many people don't know are the specifics of trendlines. Firstly, widely-touched trendlines (about a month apart) perform much better than closely-touched trendlines. Trendlines with more touches also perform better than those with fewer. Furthermore, the longer the trendline the better the performance. However, steeper trendlines don't cut - performance usually lacks when trendlines get steeper.
The Gold monthly chart shows a downward channel highlighted by blue trendlines. This channel isn't the best since the breakout doesn't kick in for a couple of years, however, it would have been great for a few swing trades.
Highlighted by the blue notes are regions of high volume at valleys and peaks. Heavy volume at peaks and volumes are good indicators of support and resistance. Represented by the white horizontal lines. However, one important thing to note is that horizontal consolidation regions provide better support and resistance then peaks and valleys.
The HCR is presented by the yellow note and the highest blue note in the chart.
Also shown is the Fibonacci retracement. The Fibonacci retracements of 38%,50%, and 62% are good regions for support and resistance. A stop placement at 67% protects trades 66% of the time.
GBPUSD "avoid selling into support" exampleIt keeps me aware of my location on the chart at all times and save me a lot of frustration. There are circumstances where you can get away with breaking this criteria however, it comes with increased risk and one should know how to adjust the capital they are using appropriately based on the risk.
Here is an example of price/volume reaction at support. If you were tempted to enter short, price would now be moving against you and you are at the mercy of the market. It might play out short yes, but more times than not, this WILL work against you. All that does is cause you to stare at the screen hoping things go your way. That is a very un-enjoyable and stressful situation to be in. I think in Wyckoff technique its called "phase B"... Phase B being the portion of the trading range where supply/demand balances/imbalances get worked out and you do not want to be in the way of that process.
But what will save you and/or at least give you time to react to a poor entry with minimum loss is to:
Avoid selling directly into support/strength/demand
Avoid buying into resistance/weakness/supply
Avoid entering positions in the center of a trading range
There is a lot more to it. There are a wide range of techniques to experiment with/employ. But no matter the technique one principle must alway be considered:
SM buys low
SM sells high
EURUSD multi time frame Bollinger band to identify weaknessUsing the multi-time frame bollinger bands here. Set to 1 hour.
Focus your attention to the activity that takes place outside of the bands. Look at the volume. What is SM doing here... PREPARING for a markdown.
SM and skilled traders are always thinking 2-3 moves ahead. If criteria is not met, we ignore it and wait for a favorable set-up.
Avoid trading in the middle of a range. That can be RSI, Bollinger bands, support/resistance.
The true action is always at the edges.
Practice*
WTICOUSD re-accumulation example 15 min with POS RSI DIVCloser look at the anatomy of that recent mark-up.
Confluence of factors:
Uptrend
strength in the background/evidence of accumulation
RSI oversold
RSI positive Divergence on volume into a key supporrt
You can see the demand to the left. SM stopped buying, allowing price to drift/shaking out remaining weak hands.
Spring below support on slight iincrease in volume
"no-supply" signal near spring
"push-through" entry seen at resistance .
PM with questions.