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Cycles

Cycles AnalysisI strongly believe in cycles, so I wanted to create something that would give a visual representation of bull/bear markets and give a prediction based on the previous data. It's up to you how to decide what is a bull/bear cycle. There is no single rule for all assets because 20% drop in SP500 starts a bear market in traditional markets, while 35% drop for Bitcoin is a Tuesday. You have two options on how to decide when markets turn: either by a % change (traditional definition) or if there is no new high/low after X days. A softer version to show periods of no new highs/lows is to use the Stagnation option. Stagnation periods hava the same logic as the cycle change by X days: if there is no new high/low then we treat this period as a stagnation. The difference is that stagnation periods do not change cycle directions and do not participate in calculations. The script also draws a possible "predictions" zone where the current cycle might end up. There is no magic here, it just takes previous cycles' size to draw the possible boundaries. If you decide to use percentiles then the box area will be taken from the percentiles calculations, otherwise it will come from the full data. "x" in the predictions zone represents a target mean (average) value, "o" represents a target median value. A few things to keep in mind: - this script is not supposed to be used in trading. It was created for analysis. It repaints. And when I say "it repaints" - it might like repaint the last 6 months of data if a new low comes and we are in a stagnation period (aka not a financial advice). - it doesn't work with replays as it does calculations only once on the last candle. - you need at least 3 periods to be able to calculate percentiles. And after this it will remove at least 1 period on each side. Which means that 90 percentile will not be a real 90 percentile until you have enough periods for it to be (20 in this specific case). - it assumes that a year = 360 days, and a month = 30 days. So the duration presentation might not be exact, until you move to the day level. - I had macro analysis in mind when I created the script, but nothing stops you from using it in a 1m time frame for BTC. Just change the time duration presentation. - the last period is not finished, so it doesn't participate in calculations.
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Turtle Soup IndicatorTurtle Soup Indicator plots a shape when we have a 20-period high or 20-period low. Turtle Soup Setup The Turtle Soup setup was published in the book Street Smarts by Laurence A Connors and Linda Raschke. You can learn about it there. It is a great setup for false breakouts or breakdowns in the group failure tests. Going long 1) We have a new 20-period low 2) that must have occured at least four trading sessions earlier <- this is very important Then we place a buy stop above 5-10 ticks or 5 to 10 cents above the previous 20-period low. If filled immediately place a good til cancelled sell stop one tick or one cent below todays low. Turtle Soup Plus One Similar to above but occurs one day later. It should close at/below previous 20-period low. Buy stop at earlier 20 day low. Cancel fi not filled on day 2. Take partials within 2-6 bars on this one and trail stop rest of position. Going short Reverse Time frames Works on all timeframes. Only adjust stoplosses accordingly to chosen timeframe. Settings You can change the color, shape and placement of the indicator shape. I actually prefer a grey color for both highs and lows as the color actually doesn't add much information. The placement says it all but it is up to you to change this as you like.
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7 Closes above/below 5 SMAThis script looks for 7 consecutive closes above/below the 5-period SMA. The indicator is inspired by legendary trader Linda Raschke's work. Usage The script can can be used in three main ways. I think you will find more uses. First are the two models for which the indicator was created, both inspired by Raschke: 1) Persistency of trend / Extended run setup. Around 10-12 times per year we get a persistency of trend in instruments in general. After 7 consecutive closes above/below the 5-period as price pulls back we can look to enter in the direction of the main trend as it moves up/down above/below 5 ma again. You should use price action trading to pinpoint the entries. Now try to hold this as long as possible. Way longer than you can percieve or think is possible. Up to 24-28 periods is what we are looking for in these cases. 2) Normal usage. When the trend is not persistent, it is possible to use this as an oscillating signal, for a shorter term trade, where we can look for a short or long term reversal setup in price action. 3) I also use it at as a learning to see the swing trades clearer. You can also use it as a visual aid for developing new variances of the classic swing trading setup. Read and listen to Linda Raschkes work to learn more. TIme frames The principles works in all time frames but may change depending on calendar differences. We will see more instances/year in shorter time frames. Why closes above the 5 SMA As you may or may not know the 5 SMA is a very important indicator. You can think of it like this, If price is above 5, it is innocent until proven guilty but if price is below 5 we use the french law system which means it is guilty until proven innocent. 7 closes above 5 is a very good predictor of possible short term direction changes. Use together with: I prefer to use this indicator together with either regular SMA:s, one short and one macro term. For example 10 ma and 100 ma. Or you can use it with a a Hull 21-period MA together with a 240-period WMA. Settings: I added settings so you can change preferences for changing shape, where to display the shape and in what color Visual aid I wanted to keep one dot for each consecutive day, this way we will get a grouping of days and dots. The amount in this group can be of use in itself to inform you of the strength of trend. This can inform you if this oscillation predicts a short term eversal or a continuation. You need skills in reading price action to use this to your advantage.
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