The Bar Counter Trend Reversal Strategy [TradeDots]Overview
The Bar Counter Trend Reversal Strategy is designed to identify potential counter-trend reversal points in the market after a series of consecutive rising or falling bars.
By analyzing price movements in conjunction with optional volume confirmation and channel bands (Bollinger Bands or Keltner Channels), this strategy aims to detect overbought or oversold conditions where a trend reversal may occur.
🔹How it Works
Consecutive Price Movements
Rising Bars: The strategy detects when there are a specified number of consecutive rising bars (No. of Rises).
Falling Bars: Similarly, it identifies a specified number of consecutive falling bars (No. of Falls).
Volume Confirmation (Optional)
When enabled, the strategy checks for increasing volume during the consecutive price movements, adding an extra layer of confirmation to the potential reversal signal.
Channel Confirmation (Optional)
Channel Type: Choose between Bollinger Bands ("BB") or Keltner Channels ("KC").
Channel Interaction: The strategy checks if the price interacts with the upper or lower channel lines: For short signals, it looks for price moving above the upper channel line. For long signals, it looks for price moving below the lower channel line.
Customization:
No. of Rises/Falls: Set the number of consecutive bars required to trigger a signal.
Volume Confirmation: Enable or disable volume as a confirmation factor.
Channel Confirmation: Enable or disable channel bands as a confirmation factor.
Channel Settings: Adjust the length and multiplier for the Bollinger Bands or Keltner Channels.
Visual Indicators:
Entry Signals: Triangles plotted on the chart indicate potential entry points:
Green upward triangle for long entries.
Red downward triangle for short entries.
Channel Bands: The upper and lower bands are plotted for visual reference.
Strategy Parameters:
Initial Capital: $10,000.
Position Sizing: 80% of equity per trade.
Commission: 0.01% per trade to simulate realistic trading costs.
🔹Usage
Set up the number of Rises/Falls and choose whether if you want to use channel indicators and volume as the confirmation.
Monitor the chart for triangles indicating potential entry points.
Consider the context of the overall market trend and other technical factors.
Backtesting and Optimization:
Use TradingView's Strategy Tester to evaluate performance.
Adjust parameters to optimize results for different market conditions.
🔹 Considerations and Recommendations
Risk Management:
The strategy does not include built-in stop-loss or take-profit levels. It's recommended to implement your own risk management techniques.
Market Conditions:
Performance may vary in different market environments. Testing and adjustments are advised when applying the strategy to new instruments or timeframes.
No Guarantee of Future Results:
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always perform due diligence and consider the risks involved in trading.
Indicators and strategies
MACD Enhanced Strategy MTF with Stop Loss [LTB]Test strategy for MACD
This strategy, named "MACD Enhanced Strategy MTF with Stop Loss ," is a modified Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) strategy with enhancements such as multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, custom scoring, and a dynamic stop loss mechanism. Let’s break down how to effectively use it:
Key Elements of the Strategy
MACD Indicator with Modifications:
The strategy uses MACD, a well-known momentum indicator, with customizable parameters:
fastLength, slowLength, and signalLength represent the standard MACD settings.
Instead of relying solely on MACD crossovers, it introduces scoring parameters for histogram direction (histside), indicator direction (indiside), and signal cross (crossscore). This allows for a more nuanced decision-making process when determining buy and sell signals.
Multi-Timeframe Analysis (MTF):
The strategy compares the current timeframe's MACD score with that of a higher timeframe (HTF). It dynamically selects the higher timeframe based on the current timeframe. For example, if the current chart period is 1, it will select 5 as the higher timeframe.
This MTF approach aims to align trades with broader trends, filtering out false signals that could be present when analyzing only a single timeframe.
Scoring System:
A custom scoring system (count() function) is used to evaluate buy and sell signals. This includes calculations based on the direction and momentum of MACD (indi) and the histogram. The score is used to determine the strength of signals.
Positive scores indicate bullish sentiment, while negative scores indicate bearish sentiment.
This scoring mechanism aims to reduce the influence of noise and provide more reliable entries.
Entry Conditions:
Long Condition: When the Result value (a combination of MTF and current MACD analysis) changes and becomes positive, a long entry is triggered.
Short Condition: When the Result changes and becomes negative, a short entry is initiated.
Stop Loss Mechanism:
The countstop() function calculates dynamic stop loss values for both long and short trades. It is based on the Average True Range (ATR) multiplied by a factor (Mult), providing adaptive stop loss levels depending on market volatility.
The stop loss is plotted on the chart to show potential risk levels for open trades, with the line appearing only if shotsl is enabled.
How to Use the Strategy
To properly use the strategy, follow these steps:
Parameter Optimization:
Adjust the input parameters such as fastLength, slowLength, and signalLength to tune the MACD indicator to the specific asset you’re trading. The values provided are typical defaults, but optimizing these values based on backtesting can help improve performance.
Customize the scoring parameters (crossscore, indiside, histside) to balance how much weight you want to put on the direction, histogram, and cross events of the MACD indicator.
Select Appropriate Timeframes:
This strategy employs a multi-timeframe (MTF) approach, so it's important to understand how the higher timeframe (HTF) is selected based on the current timeframe. For instance, if you are trading on a 5-minute chart, the higher timeframe will be 15 minutes, which helps filter out lower timeframe noise.
Ensure you understand the relationship between the timeframe you’re using and the HTF it automatically selects. The strategy’s effectiveness can vary depending on how these timeframes align with the asset’s overall volatility.
Run Backtests:
Always backtest the strategy over historical data to determine its reliability for the asset and timeframes you’re interested in. Note that the MTF approach may require substantial data to capture how different timeframes interact.
Use the backtest results to adjust the scoring parameters or the Stop Loss Factor (Mult) for better risk management.
Stop Loss Usage:
The stop loss is calculated dynamically using ATR, which means that it adjusts with changing volatility. This can be useful to avoid being stopped out too often during periods of increased volatility.
The shotsl parameter can be set to true to visualize the stop loss line on the chart. This helps to monitor the protection level and make better decisions regarding holding or closing a trade manually.
Entry Signals and Trade Execution:
Look for changes in the Result value to determine entry points. For a long position, the Result needs to become positive, and for a short position, it must be negative.
Note that the strategy's entries are more conservative because it waits for the Result to confirm the direction using multiple factors, which helps filter out false breakouts.
Risk Management:
The adaptive stop loss mechanism reduces the risk by basing the stop level on market volatility. However, you must still consider additional risk management practices such as position sizing and profit targets.
Given the scoring mechanism, it might not enter trades frequently, which means using this strategy may result in fewer but potentially more accurate trades. It’s important to be patient and not force trades that don’t align with the calculated results.
Real-Time Monitoring:
Make sure to monitor trades actively. Since the strategy recalculates the score on each bar, real-time changes in the Result value could provide exit opportunities even if the stop loss isn't triggered.
Summary
The "MACD Enhanced Strategy MTF with Stop Loss " is a sophisticated version of the MACD strategy, enhanced with multi-timeframe analysis and adaptive stop loss. Properly using it involves optimizing MACD and scoring parameters, selecting suitable timeframes, and actively managing entries and exits based on a combination of scoring and volatility-based stop losses. Always conduct thorough backtesting before applying it in a live environment to ensure the strategy performs well on the asset you're trading.
Crypto Volatility Bitcoin Correlation Strategy Description:
The Crypto Volatility Bitcoin Correlation Strategy is designed to leverage market volatility specifically in Bitcoin (BTC) using a combination of volatility indicators and trend-following techniques. This strategy utilizes the VIXFix (a volatility indicator adapted for crypto markets) and the BVOL7D (Bitcoin 7-Day Volatility Index from BitMEX) to identify periods of high volatility, while confirming trends with the Exponential Moving Average (EMA). These components work together to offer a comprehensive system that traders can use to enter positions when volatility and trends are aligned in their favor.
Key Features:
VIXFix (Volatility Index for Crypto Markets): This indicator measures the highest price of Bitcoin over a set period and compares it with the current low price to gauge market volatility. A rise in VIXFix indicates increasing market volatility, signaling that large price movements could occur.
BVOL7D (Bitcoin 7-Day Volatility Index): This volatility index, provided by BitMEX, measures the volatility of Bitcoin over the past 7 days. It helps traders monitor the recent volatility trend in the market, particularly useful when making short-term trading decisions.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA): The 50-period EMA acts as a trend indicator. When the price is above the EMA, it suggests the market is in an uptrend, and when the price is below the EMA, it suggests a downtrend.
How It Works:
Long Entry: A long position is triggered when both the VIXFix and BVOL7D indicators are rising, signaling increased volatility, and the price is above the 50-period EMA, confirming that the market is trending upward.
Exit: The strategy exits the position when the price crosses below the 50-period EMA, which signals a potential weakening of the uptrend and a decrease in volatility.
This strategy ensures that traders only enter positions when the volatility aligns with a clear trend, minimizing the risk of entering trades during periods of market uncertainty.
Testing and Timeframe:
This strategy has been tested on Bitcoin using the daily timeframe, which provides a longer-term perspective on market trends and volatility. However, users can adjust the timeframe according to their trading preferences. It is crucial to note that this strategy does not include comprehensive risk management, aside from the exit condition when the price crosses below the EMA. Users are strongly advised to implement their own risk management techniques, such as setting appropriate stop-loss levels, to safeguard their positions during high volatility periods.
Utility:
The Crypto Volatility Bitcoin Correlation Strategy is particularly well-suited for traders who aim to capitalize on the high volatility often seen in the Bitcoin market. By combining volatility measurements (VIXFix and BVOL7D) with a trend-following mechanism (EMA), this strategy helps identify optimal moments for entering and exiting trades. This approach ensures that traders participate in potentially profitable market moves while minimizing exposure during times of uncertainty.
Use Cases:
Volatility-Based Entries: Traders looking to take advantage of market volatility spikes will find this strategy useful for timing entry points during market swings.
Trend Confirmation: By using the EMA as a confirmation tool, traders can avoid entering trades that go against the trend, which can result in significant losses during volatile market conditions.
Risk Management: While the strategy exits when price falls below the EMA, it is important to recognize that this is not a full risk management system. Traders should use caution and integrate additional risk measures, such as stop-losses and position sizing, to better manage potential losses.
How to Use:
Step 1: Monitor the VIXFix and BVOL7D indicators. When both are rising and the Bitcoin price is above the EMA, the strategy will trigger a long entry, indicating that the market is experiencing increased volatility with a confirmed uptrend.
Step 2: Exit the position when the price drops below the 50-period EMA, signaling that the trend may be reversing or weakening, reducing the likelihood of continued upward price movement.
This strategy is open-source and is intended to help traders navigate volatile market conditions, particularly in Bitcoin, using proven indicators for volatility and trend confirmation.
Risk Disclaimer:
This strategy has been tested on the daily timeframe of Bitcoin, but users should be aware that it does not include built-in risk management except for the below-EMA exit condition. Users should be extremely cautious when using this strategy and are encouraged to implement their own risk management, such as using stop-losses, position sizing, and setting appropriate limits. Trading involves significant risk, and this strategy does not guarantee profits or prevent losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always test any strategy in a demo environment before applying it to live markets.
RSI Crossover Strategy with Compounding (Monthly)Explanation of the Code:
Initial Setup:
The strategy initializes with a capital of 100,000.
Variables track the capital and the amount invested in the current trade.
RSI Calculation:
The RSI and its SMA are calculated on the monthly timeframe using request.security().
Entry and Exit Conditions:
Entry: A long position is initiated when the RSI is above its SMA and there’s no existing position. The quantity is based on available capital.
Exit: The position is closed when the RSI falls below its SMA. The capital is updated based on the net profit from the trade.
Capital Management:
After closing a trade, the capital is updated with the net profit plus the initial investment.
Plotting:
The RSI and its SMA are plotted for visualization on the chart.
A label displays the current capital.
Notes:
Test the strategy on different instruments and historical data to see how it performs.
Adjust parameters as needed for your specific trading preferences.
This script is a basic framework, and you might want to enhance it with risk management, stop-loss, or take-profit features as per your trading strategy.
Feel free to modify it further based on your needs!
E9 Shark-32 Pattern Strategy The E9 Shark-32 Pattern is a powerful trading tool designed to capitalize on the Shark-32 pattern—a specific Candlestick pattern.
The Shark-32 Pattern: What Is It?
The Shark-32 pattern is a technical formation that occurs when the following conditions are met:
Higher Highs and Lower Lows: The low of two bars ago is lower than the previous bar, and the previous bar's low is lower than the current bar. At the same time, the high of two bars ago is higher than the previous bar, and the previous bar’s high is higher than the current bar.
This unique setup forms the "Shark-32" pattern, which signals potential volume squeezes and trend changes in the market.
How Does the Strategy Work?
The E9 Shark-32 Pattern Strategy builds upon this pattern by defining clear entry and exit rules based on the pattern's confirmation. Here's a breakdown of how the strategy operates:
1. Identifying the Shark-32 Pattern
When the Shark-32 pattern is confirmed, the strategy "locks" the high and low prices from the initial bar of the pattern. These locked prices serve as key levels for future trade entries and exits.
2. Entry Conditions
The strategy waits for the price to cross the pattern's locked high or low, signaling potential market direction.
Long Entry: A long trade is triggered when the closing price crosses above the locked pattern high (green line).
Short Entry: A short trade is triggered when the closing price crosses below the locked pattern low (red line).
The strategy ensures that only one trade is taken for each Shark-32 pattern, preventing overtrading and allowing traders to focus on high-probability setups.
3. Stop Loss and Take Profit Levels
The strategy has built-in risk management through stop-loss and take-profit levels, which are visually represented by the lines on the chart:
Stop Loss:
Stop loss can be adjusted in settings.
Take Profit:
For long trades: The take-profit target is set at the upper white dotted line, which is projected above the pattern high.
For short trades: The take-profit target is set at the lower white dotted line, which is projected below the pattern low.
These clearly defined levels help traders to manage risk effectively while maximizing potential returns.
4. Visual Cues
To make trading decisions even easier, the strategy provides helpful visual cues:
Green Line (Pattern High): This line represents the high of the Shark-32 pattern and serves as a resistance level and short entry signal.
Red Line (Pattern Low): This line represents the low of the Shark-32 pattern and serves as a support level and long entry signal.
White Dotted Lines: These lines represent potential profit targets, projected both above and below the pattern. They help traders define where the market might go next.
Additionally, the strategy highlights the pattern formation with color-coded bars and background shading to draw attention to the Shark-32 pattern when it is confirmed. This adds a layer of visual confirmation, making it easier to spot opportunities in real-time.
5. No Repeated Trades
An important aspect of the strategy is that once a trade is taken (either long or short), no additional trades are executed until a new Shark-32 pattern is identified. This ensures that only valid and confirmed setups are acted upon.
KAMA Cloud STIndicator:
Description:
The KAMA Cloud indicator is a sophisticated trading tool designed to provide traders with insights into market trends and their intensity. This indicator is built on the Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average (KAMA), which dynamically adjusts its sensitivity to filter out market noise and respond to significant price movements. The KAMA Cloud leverages multiple KAMAs to gauge trend direction and strength, offering a visual representation that is easy to interpret.
How It Works:
The KAMA Cloud uses twenty different KAMA calculations, each set to a distinct lookback period ranging from 5 to 100. These KAMAs are calculated using the average of the open, high, low, and close prices (OHLC4), ensuring a balanced view of price action. The relative positioning of these KAMAs helps determine the direction of the market trend and its momentum.
By measuring the cumulative relative distance between these KAMAs, the indicator effectively assesses the overall trend strength, akin to how the Average True Range (ATR) measures market volatility. This cumulative measure helps in identifying the trend’s robustness and potential sustainability.
The visualization component of the KAMA Cloud is particularly insightful. It plots a 'cloud' formed between the base KAMA (set at a 100-period lookback) and an adjusted KAMA that incorporates the cumulative relative distance scaled up. This cloud changes color based on the trend direction — green for upward trends and red for downward trends, providing a clear, visual representation of market conditions.
How the Strategy Works:
The KAMA Cloud ST strategy employs multiple KAMA calculations with varying lengths to capture the nuances of market trends. It measures the relative distances between these KAMAs to determine the trend's direction and strength, much like the original indicator. The strategy enhances decision-making by plotting a 'cloud' formed between the base KAMA (set to a 100-period lookback) and an adjusted KAMA that scales according to the cumulative relative distance of all KAMAs.
Key Components of the Strategy:
Multiple KAMA Layers: The strategy calculates KAMAs for periods ranging from 5 to 100 to analyze short to long-term market trends.
Dynamic Cloud: The cloud visually represents the trend’s strength and direction, updating in real-time as the market evolves.
Signal Generation: Trade signals are generated based on the orientation of the cloud relative to a smoothed version of the upper KAMA boundary. Long positions are initiated when the market trend is upward, and the current cloud value is above its smoothed average. Conversely, positions are closed when the trend reverses, indicated by the cloud falling below the smoothed average.
Suggested Usage:
Market: Stocks, not cryptocurrency
Timeframe: 1 Hour
Indicator:
ADX + Volume Strategy### Strategy Description: ADX and Volume-Based Trading Strategy
This strategy is designed to identify strong market trends using the **Average Directional Index (ADX)** and confirm trading signals with **Volume**. The idea behind the strategy is to enter trades only when the market shows a strong trend (as indicated by ADX) and when the price movement is supported by high trading volume. This combination helps filter out weaker signals and provides more reliable entries into positions.
### Key Indicators:
1. **ADX (Average Directional Index)**:
- **Purpose**: ADX is a technical indicator that measures the strength of a trend, regardless of its direction (up or down).
- **Usage**: The strategy uses ADX to determine whether the market is trending strongly. If ADX is above a certain threshold (default is 25), it indicates that a strong trend is present.
- **Directional Indicators**:
- **DI+ (Directional Indicator Plus)**: Indicates the strength of the upward price movement.
- **DI- (Directional Indicator Minus)**: Indicates the strength of the downward price movement.
- ADX does not indicate the direction of the trend but confirms that a trend exists. DI+ and DI- are used to determine the direction.
2. **Volume**:
- **Purpose**: Volume is a key indicator for confirming the strength of a price movement. High volume suggests that a large number of market participants are supporting the movement, making it more likely to continue.
- **Usage**: The strategy compares the current volume to the 20-period moving average of the volume. The trade signal is confirmed if the current volume is greater than the average volume by a specified **Volume Multiplier** (default multiplier is 1.5). This ensures that the trade is supported by strong market participation.
### Strategy Logic:
#### **Entry Conditions:**
1. **Long Position** (Buy):
- **ADX** is above the threshold (default is 25), indicating a strong trend.
- **DI+ > DI-**, signaling that the market is trending upward.
- The **current volume** is greater than the 20-period average volume multiplied by the **Volume Multiplier** (e.g., 1.5), indicating that the upward price movement is backed by sufficient market activity.
2. **Short Position** (Sell):
- **ADX** is above the threshold (default is 25), indicating a strong trend.
- **DI- > DI+**, signaling that the market is trending downward.
- The **current volume** is greater than the 20-period average volume multiplied by the **Volume Multiplier** (e.g., 1.5), indicating that the downward price movement is backed by strong selling activity.
#### **Exit Conditions**:
- Positions are closed when the opposite signal appears:
- **For long positions**: Close when the short conditions are met (ADX still above the threshold, DI- > DI+, and the volume condition holds).
- **For short positions**: Close when the long conditions are met (ADX still above the threshold, DI+ > DI-, and the volume condition holds).
### Parameters:
- **ADX Period**: The period used to calculate ADX (default is 14). This controls how sensitive the ADX is to price movements.
- **ADX Threshold**: The minimum ADX value required for the strategy to consider the market trend as strong (default is 25). Higher values focus on stronger trends.
- **Volume Multiplier**: This parameter adjusts how much higher the current volume needs to be compared to the 20-period moving average for the signal to be valid. A value of 1.5 means the current volume must be 50% higher than the average volume.
### Example Trade Flow:
1. **Long Trade Example**:
- ADX > 25, confirming a strong trend.
- DI+ > DI-, confirming that the trend direction is upward.
- The current volume is 50% higher than the 20-period average volume (multiplied by 1.5).
- **Action**: Enter a long position.
2. **Short Trade Example**:
- ADX > 25, confirming a strong trend.
- DI- > DI+, confirming that the trend direction is downward.
- The current volume is 50% higher than the 20-period average volume.
- **Action**: Enter a short position.
### Strengths of the Strategy:
- **Trend Filtering**: The strategy ensures that trades are only taken when the market is trending strongly (confirmed by ADX) and that the price movement is supported by high volume, reducing the likelihood of false signals.
- **Volume Confirmation**: Using volume as confirmation provides an additional layer of reliability, as volume spikes often accompany sustained price moves.
- **Dual Signal Confirmation**: Both trend strength (ADX) and volume conditions must be met for a trade, making the strategy more robust.
### Weaknesses of the Strategy:
- **Limited Effectiveness in Range-Bound Markets**: Since the strategy relies on strong trends, it may underperform in sideways or non-trending markets where ADX stays below the threshold.
- **Lagging Nature of ADX**: ADX is a lagging indicator, which means that it may confirm the trend after it has already begun, potentially leading to late entries.
- **Volume Requirement**: In low-volume markets, the volume multiplier condition may not be met often, leading to fewer trade opportunities.
### Customization:
- **Adjust the ADX Threshold**: You can raise the threshold if you want to focus only on very strong trends, or lower it to capture moderate trends.
- **Adjust the Volume Multiplier**: You can change the multiplier to be more or less strict. A higher multiplier (e.g., 2.0) will require a stronger volume spike to confirm the signal, while a lower multiplier (e.g., 1.2) will allow more trades with weaker volume confirmation.
### Summary:
This ADX and Volume strategy is ideal for traders who want to follow strong trends while ensuring that the trend is supported by high trading volume. By combining a trend strength filter (ADX) and volume confirmation, the strategy aims to increase the probability of entering profitable trades while reducing the number of false signals. However, it may underperform in range-bound markets or in markets with low volume.
Trend Following ADX + Parabolic SAR### Strategy Description: Trend Following using **ADX** and **Parabolic SAR**
This strategy is designed to follow market trends using two popular indicators: **Average Directional Index (ADX)** and **Parabolic SAR**. The strategy attempts to enter trades when the market shows a strong trend (using ADX) and confirms the trend direction using the Parabolic SAR. Here's a breakdown:
### Key Indicators:
1. **ADX (Average Directional Index)**:
- **Purpose**: ADX measures the strength of a trend, regardless of direction.
- **Usage**: The strategy uses ADX to confirm that the market is trending. When ADX is above a certain threshold (e.g., 25), it indicates a strong trend.
- **Directional Indicators**:
- **DI+ (Directional Indicator Plus)**: Indicates upward movement strength.
- **DI- (Directional Indicator Minus)**: Indicates downward movement strength.
2. **Parabolic SAR**:
- **Purpose**: Parabolic SAR is a trend-following indicator used to identify potential reversals in the price direction.
- **Usage**: It provides specific price points above or below which the strategy confirms buy or sell signals.
### Strategy Logic:
#### **Entry Conditions**:
1. **Long Position** (Buy):
- **ADX** is above the threshold (default: 25), indicating a strong trend.
- **DI+ > DI-**, indicating the upward trend is stronger than the downward.
- The price is above the **Parabolic SAR** level, confirming the upward trend.
2. **Short Position** (Sell):
- **ADX** is above the threshold (default: 25), indicating a strong trend.
- **DI- > DI+**, indicating the downward trend is stronger than the upward.
- The price is below the **Parabolic SAR** level, confirming the downward trend.
#### **Exit Conditions**:
- Positions are closed when an opposite signal is detected.
- For example, if a long position is open and the conditions for a short position are met, the long position is closed, and a short position is opened.
### Parameters:
1. **ADX Period**: Defines the length of the period for the ADX calculation (default: 14).
2. **ADX Threshold**: The minimum value of ADX to confirm a strong trend (default: 25).
3. **Parabolic SAR Start**: The initial step for the SAR (default: 0.02).
4. **Parabolic SAR Increment**: The step increment for SAR (default: 0.02).
5. **Parabolic SAR Max**: The maximum step for SAR (default: 0.2).
### Example Trade Flow:
#### **Long Trade**:
1. ADX > 25, confirming a strong trend.
2. DI+ > DI-, indicating the market is trending upward.
3. The price is above the Parabolic SAR, confirming the upward direction.
4. **Action**: Enter a long (buy) position.
5. Exit the long position when a short signal is triggered (i.e., DI- > DI+, price below Parabolic SAR).
#### **Short Trade**:
1. ADX > 25, confirming a strong trend.
2. DI- > DI+, indicating the market is trending downward.
3. The price is below the Parabolic SAR, confirming the downward direction.
4. **Action**: Enter a short (sell) position.
5. Exit the short position when a long signal is triggered (i.e., DI+ > DI-, price above Parabolic SAR).
### Strengths of the Strategy:
- **Trend-Following**: It performs well in markets with strong trends, whether upward or downward.
- **Dual Confirmation**: The combination of ADX and Parabolic SAR reduces false signals by ensuring both trend strength and direction are considered before entering a trade.
### Weaknesses:
- **Range-Bound Markets**: This strategy may perform poorly in choppy, non-trending markets because both ADX and SAR are trend-following indicators.
- **Lagging Nature**: Since both ADX and SAR are lagging indicators, the strategy may enter trades after the trend has already started, potentially missing early profits.
### Customization:
- **ADX Threshold**: You can increase the threshold if you only want to trade in very strong trends, or lower it to capture more moderate trends.
- **SAR Parameters**: Adjusting the SAR `start`, `increment`, and `max` values will make the Parabolic SAR more or less sensitive to price changes.
### Summary:
This strategy combines the ADX and Parabolic SAR to take advantage of strong market trends. By confirming both trend strength (ADX) and trend direction (Parabolic SAR), it aims to enter high-probability trades in trending markets while minimizing false signals. However, it may struggle in sideways or non-trending markets.
For Educational purposes only !!!
Fibonacci Swing Trading BotStrategy Overview for "Fibonacci Swing Trading Bot"
Strategy Name: Fibonacci Swing Trading Bot
Version: Pine Script v5
Purpose: This strategy is designed for swing traders who want to leverage Fibonacci retracement levels and candlestick patterns to enter and exit trades on higher time frames.
Key Components:
1. Multiple Timeframe Analysis:
The strategy uses a customizable timeframe for analysis. You can choose between 4hour, daily, weekly, or monthly time frames to fit your preferred trading horizon. The high and low-price data is retrieved from the selected timeframe to identify swing points.
2. Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
The script calculates two key Fibonacci retracement levels:
0.618: A common level where price often retraces before resuming its trend.
0.786: A deeper retracement level, often used to identify stronger support/resistance areas.
These levels are dynamically plotted on the chart based on the highest high and lowest low over the last 50 bars of the selected timeframe.
3. Candlestick Based Entry Signals:
The strategy uses candlestick patterns as the only indicator for trade entries:
Bullish Candle: A green candle (close > open) that forms between the 0.618 retracement level and the swing high.
Bearish Candle: A red candle (close < open) that forms between the 0.786 retracement level and the swing low.
When these candlestick patterns align with the Fibonacci levels, the script triggers buy or sell signals.
4. Risk Management:
Stop Loss: The stop loss is set at 1% below the entry price for long trades and 1% above the entry price for short trades. This tight risk management ensures controlled losses.
Take Profit: The strategy uses a 2:1 risk-to-reward ratio. The take profit is automatically calculated based on this ratio relative to the stop loss.
5. Buy/Sell Logic:
Buy Signal: Triggered when a bullish candle forms above the 0.618 retracement level and below the swing high. The bot then places a long position.
Sell Signal: Triggered when a bearish candle forms below the 0.786 retracement level and above the swing low. The bot then places a short position.
The stop loss and take profit levels are automatically managed once the trade is placed.
Strengths of This Strategy:
Swing Trading Focus: The strategy is ideal for swing traders, targeting longer-term price moves that can take days or weeks to play out.
Simple Yet Effective Indicators: By only relying on Fibonacci retracement levels and basic candlestick patterns, the strategy avoids complexity while capitalizing on well-known support and resistance zones.
Automated Risk Management: The built-in stop loss and take profit mechanism ensures trades are protected, adhering to a strict 2:1 risk/reward ratio.
Multiple Timeframe Analysis: The script adapts to various market conditions by allowing users to switch between different timeframes (4hour, daily, weekly, monthly), giving traders flexibility.
Strategy Use Cases:
Retracement Traders: Traders who focus on entering the market at key retracement levels (0.618 and 0.786) will find this strategy especially useful.
Trend Reversal Traders: The strategy’s reliance on candlestick formations at Fibonacci levels helps traders spot potential reversals in price trends.
Risk Conscious Traders: With its 1% risk per trade and 2:1 risk/reward ratio, the strategy is ideal for traders who prioritize risk management in their trades.
Commitment of Trader %R StrategyThis Pine Script strategy utilizes the Commitment of Traders (COT) data to inform trading decisions based on the Williams %R indicator. The script operates in TradingView and includes various functionalities that allow users to customize their trading parameters.
Here’s a breakdown of its key components:
COT Data Import:
The script imports the COT library from TradingView to access historical COT data related to different trader groups (commercial hedgers, large traders, and small traders).
User Inputs:
COT data selection mode (e.g., Auto, Root, Base currency).
Whether to include futures, options, or both.
The trader group to analyze.
The lookback period for calculating the Williams %R.
Upper and lower thresholds for triggering trades.
An option to enable or disable a Simple Moving Average (SMA) filter.
Williams %R Calculation: The script calculates the Williams %R value, which is a momentum indicator that measures overbought or oversold levels based on the highest and lowest prices over a specified period.
SMA Filter: An optional SMA filter allows users to limit trades to conditions where the price is above or below the SMA, depending on the configuration.
Trade Logic: The strategy enters long positions when the Williams %R value exceeds the upper threshold and exits when the value falls below it. Conversely, it enters short positions when the Williams %R value is below the lower threshold and exits when the value rises above it.
Visual Elements: The script visually indicates the Williams %R values and thresholds on the chart, with the option to plot the SMA if enabled.
Commitment of Traders (COT) Data
The COT report is a weekly publication by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that provides a breakdown of open interest positions held by different types of traders in the U.S. futures markets. It is widely used by traders and analysts to gauge market sentiment and potential price movements.
Data Collection: The COT data is collected from futures commission merchants and is published every Friday, reflecting positions as of the previous Tuesday. The report categorizes traders into three main groups:
Commercial Traders: These are typically hedgers (like producers and processors) who use futures to mitigate risk.
Non-Commercial Traders: Often referred to as speculators, these traders do not have a commercial interest in the underlying commodity but seek to profit from price changes.
Non-reportable Positions: Small traders who do not meet the reporting threshold set by the CFTC.
Interpretation:
Market Sentiment: By analyzing the positions of different trader groups, market participants can gauge sentiment. For instance, if commercial traders are heavily short, it may suggest they expect prices to decline.
Extreme Positions: Some traders look for extreme positions among non-commercial traders as potential reversal signals. For example, if speculators are overwhelmingly long, it might indicate an overbought condition.
Statistical Insights: COT data is often used in conjunction with technical analysis to inform trading decisions. Studies have shown that analyzing COT data can provide valuable insights into future price movements (Lund, 2018; Hurst et al., 2017).
Scientific References
Lund, J. (2018). Understanding the COT Report: An Analysis of Speculative Trading Strategies.
Journal of Derivatives and Hedge Funds, 24(1), 41-52. DOI:10.1057/s41260-018-00107-3
Hurst, B., O'Neill, R., & Roulston, M. (2017). The Impact of COT Reports on Futures Market Prices: An Empirical Analysis. Journal of Futures Markets, 37(8), 763-785.
DOI:10.1002/fut.21849
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). (2024). Commitment of Traders. Retrieved from CFTC Official Website.
Advanced Position Management [Mr_Rakun]Advanced Position Management
This Pine Script code is for a strategy titled "Advanced Position Management," aimed at effective trade execution and management using multiple take profit levels, trailing stop loss, and dynamic position sizing.
Take Profit Levels: It defines up to three take profit (TP) levels, allowing partial position exits at different price thresholds. The take profit levels and their respective quantities are adjustable using inputs.
Stop Loss and Trailing Stop: The script implements an initial stop loss based on a percentage from the entry price. Additionally, it features a trailing stop that moves based on either a percentage or previous TP levels, dynamically adjusting to maximize gains while protecting profits.
Position Size: The position size is customizable and based on USD value, allowing the trader to manage risk more effectively.
Advantages:
Flexibility: Multiple take profit levels and a dynamic stop loss system allow traders to lock in profits while keeping the position open for further gains.
Risk Management: The initial stop loss and trailing stop help to limit losses and protect profits as the trade moves in the desired direction.
Automation: Once the strategy is deployed, it automatically handles entry, exit, and stop management, reducing the need for constant monitoring.
------ TR ------
Gelişmiş Pozisyon Yönetimi
Bu Pine Script kodu, Gelişmiş Pozisyon Yönetimi için kendi stratejilerinize kolayca entegre edeceğiniz bir risk yönetimidir. Çoklu kâr al seviyeleri, takip eden stop-loss ve dinamik pozisyon büyüklüğü kullanarak işlem yürütme ve yönetiminde etkilidir.
Gelişmiş Pozisyon Yönetimi
Kâr Alma Seviyeleri;
Kod, pozisyonların farklı fiyat seviyelerinde kısmi kapatılmasını sağlayan üç farklı kâr alma (TP) seviyesini tanımlar. Bu kâr alma seviyeleri ve ilgili miktarları, girişlerle ayarlanabilir.
Stop Loss ve Takip Eden Stop;
Koda, giriş fiyatından bir yüzdeye dayalı olarak başlangıçta stop-loss uygulanır. Ayrıca, fiyat hareketine göre kendini ayarlayan takip eden bir stop-loss sistemi bulunur. Ayrıca TP seviyelerini takip eden stop loss özelliğide vardır.
Avantajları:
Esneklik;
Çoklu kâr alma seviyeleri ve dinamik stop-loss sistemi, trader'ların kazançlarını kilitleyip aynı zamanda pozisyonu açık tutmalarına olanak tanır.
Risk Yönetimi;
Başlangıç stop-loss ve takip eden stop, zararı sınırlamaya ve kazançları korumaya yardımcı olur.
Otomasyon;
Strateji bir kez devreye alındığında, giriş, çıkış ve stop yönetimi otomatik olarak gerçekleştirilir, bu da sürekli takip ihtiyacını azaltır.
Indicator Test with Conditions TableOverview: The "Indicator Test with Conditions Table" is a customizable trading strategy developed using Pine Script™ for the TradingView platform. It allows users to define complex entry conditions for both long and short positions based on various technical indicators and price levels.
Key Features:
Customizable Input Conditions:
Users can configure up to three input conditions for both long and short entries, each with its own logical operator (AND/OR) for combining conditions.
Input conditions can be based on:
Price Sources: Users can select any price data (e.g., close, open, high, low) for each condition.
Comparison Operators: Users can choose from a variety of operators, including:
Greater than (>)
Greater than or equal to (>=)
Less than (<)
Less than or equal to (<=)
Equal to (=)
Not equal to (!=)
Crossover (crossover)
Crossunder (crossunder)
Logical Operators:
The strategy provides options for combining conditions using logical operators (AND/OR) for greater flexibility in defining entry criteria.
Dynamic Condition Evaluation:
The strategy evaluates the defined conditions dynamically, checking whether they are enabled before proceeding with the comparison.
Users can toggle conditions on and off using boolean inputs, allowing for quick adjustments without modifying the code.
Visual Feedback:
A table is displayed on the chart, providing real-time status updates on the conditions and whether they are enabled. This enhances user experience by allowing easy monitoring of the strategy's logic.
Order Execution:
The strategy enters long or short positions based on the combined conditions' evaluations, automatically executing trades when the criteria are met.
How to Use:
Set Up Input Conditions:
Navigate to the strategy’s input settings to configure your desired price sources, operators, and logical combinations for long and short conditions.
Monitor Conditions:
Observe the condition table displayed at the bottom right of the chart to see which conditions are enabled and their current evaluations.
Adjust Strategy Parameters:
Modify the conditions, logical operators, and input sources as needed to optimize the strategy for different market scenarios or trading styles.
Execution:
Once the conditions are met, the strategy will automatically enter trades based on the defined logic.
Conclusion: The "Indicator Test with Conditions Table" strategy is a robust tool for traders looking to implement customized trading logic based on various market conditions. Its flexibility and real-time monitoring capabilities make it suitable for both novice and experienced traders.
XAU/USD Strategy with Correct ADX and Bollinger Bands Fill1. *Indicators Used*:
- *Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)*: Two EMAs (20-period and 50-period) are used to identify the trend direction and potential entry points based on crossovers.
- *Relative Strength Index (RSI)*: A momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. It identifies overbought and oversold conditions.
- *Bollinger Bands*: These consist of a middle line (simple moving average) and two outer bands (standard deviations away from the middle). They help to identify price volatility and potential reversal points.
- *Average Directional Index (ADX)*: This indicator quantifies trend strength. It's derived from the Directional Movement Index (DMI) and helps confirm the presence of a strong trend.
- *Average True Range (ATR)*: Used to calculate position size based on volatility, ensuring that trades align with the trader's risk tolerance.
2. *Entry Conditions*:
- *Long Entry*:
- The 20 EMA crosses above the 50 EMA (indicating a potential bullish trend).
- The RSI is below the oversold level (30), suggesting the asset may be undervalued.
- The price is below the lower Bollinger Band, indicating potential price reversal.
- The ADX is above a specified threshold (25), confirming that there is sufficient trend strength.
- *Short Entry*:
- The 20 EMA crosses below the 50 EMA (indicating a potential bearish trend).
- The RSI is above the overbought level (70), suggesting the asset may be overvalued.
- The price is above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating potential price reversal.
- The ADX is above the specified threshold (25), confirming trend strength.
3. *Position Sizing*:
- The script calculates the position size dynamically based on the trader's risk per trade (expressed as a percentage of the total capital) and the ATR. This ensures that the trader does not risk more than the specified percentage on any single trade, adjusting the position size according to market volatility.
4. *Exit Conditions*:
- The strategy uses a trailing stop-loss mechanism to secure profits as the price moves in the trader's favor. The trailing stop is set at a percentage (1.5% by default) below the highest price reached since entry for long positions and above the lowest price for short positions.
- Additionally, if the RSI crosses back above the overbought level while in a long position or below the oversold level while in a short position, the position is closed to prevent losses.
5. *Alerts*:
- Alerts are set to notify the trader when a buy or sell condition is met based on the strategy's rules. This allows for timely execution of trades.
### Summary
This strategy aims to capture significant price movements in the XAU/USD market by combining trend-following (EMAs, ADX) and momentum indicators (RSI, Bollinger Bands). The dynamic position sizing based on ATR helps manage risk effectively. By implementing trailing stops and alert mechanisms, the strategy enhances the trader's ability to act quickly on opportunities while mitigating potential losses.
Monthly Breakout StrategyThis Monthly High/Low Breakout Strategy is designed to take long or short positions based on breakouts from the high or low of the previous month. Users can select whether they want to go long at a breakout above the previous month’s high, short at a breakdown below the previous month’s low, or use the reverse logic. Additionally, it includes a month filter, allowing trades to be executed only during user-specified months.
Breakout strategies, particularly those based on monthly highs and lows, aim to capitalize on price momentum. These systems rely on the assumption that once a significant price level is breached (such as the previous month's high or low), the market is likely to continue moving in the same direction due to increased volatility and trend-following behaviors by traders. Studies have demonstrated the potential effectiveness of breakout strategies in financial markets.
Scientific Evidence Supporting Breakout Strategies:
Momentum in Financial Markets:
Research on momentum-based strategies, which include breakout trading, shows that securities breaking key levels of support or resistance tend to continue their price movement in the direction of the breakout. Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) found that stocks with strong performance over a given period tend to continue performing well in subsequent periods, a principle also applied to breakout strategies.
Behavioral Finance:
The psychological factor of herd behavior is one of the driving forces behind breakout strategies. When prices break out of a key level (such as a monthly high), it triggers increased buying or selling pressure as traders join the trend. Barberis, Shleifer, and Vishny (1998) explained how cognitive biases, such as overconfidence and sentiment, can amplify price trends, which breakout strategies attempt to exploit.
Market Efficiency:
While markets are generally efficient, periods of inefficiency can occur, particularly around the breakouts of significant price levels. These inefficiencies often result in temporary price trends, which breakout strategies can exploit before the market corrects itself (Fama, 1970).
Risk Considerations:
Despite the potential for profit, the Monthly Breakout Strategy comes with several risks:
False Breakouts:
One of the most common risks in breakout strategies is the occurrence of false breakouts. These happen when the price temporarily moves above (or below) a key level but quickly reverses direction, causing losses for traders who entered positions too early. This is particularly risky in low-volatility environments.
Market Volatility:
Monthly breakout strategies rely on momentum, which may not be consistent across different market conditions. During periods of low volatility, price breakouts might lack the follow-through required for the strategy to succeed, leading to poor performance.
Whipsaw Risk:
The strategy is vulnerable to whipsaw markets, where prices oscillate around key levels without establishing a clear direction. This can result in frequent entry and exit signals that lead to losses, especially if trading costs are not managed properly.
Overfitting to Past Data:
If the month-selection filter is overly optimized based on historical data, the strategy may suffer from overfitting—performing well in backtests but poorly in real-time trading. This happens when strategies are tailored to past market conditions that may not repeat.
Conclusion:
While monthly breakout strategies can be effective in markets with strong momentum, they are subject to several risks, including false breakouts, volatility dependency, and whipsaw behavior. It is crucial to backtest this strategy thoroughly and ensure it aligns with your risk tolerance before implementing it in live trading.
References:
Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65-91.
Barberis, N., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. (1998). A Model of Investor Sentiment. Journal of Financial Economics, 49(3), 307-343.
Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work. Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417.
Bitcoin CME-Spot Z-Spread - Strategy [presentTrading]This time is a swing trading strategy! It measures the sentiment of the Bitcoin market through the spread of CME Bitcoin Futures and Bitfinex BTCUSD Spot prices. By applying Bollinger Bands to the spread, the strategy seeks to capture mean-reversion opportunities when prices deviate significantly from their historical norms
█ Introduction and How it is Different
The Bitcoin CME-Spot Bollinger Bands Strategy is designed to capture mean-reversion opportunities by exploiting the spread between CME Bitcoin Futures and Bitfinex BTCUSD Spot prices. The strategy uses Bollinger Bands to detect when the spread between these two correlated assets has deviated significantly from its historical norm, signaling potential overbought or oversold conditions.
What sets this strategy apart is its focus on spread trading between futures and spot markets rather than price-based indicators. By applying Bollinger Bands to the spread rather than individual prices, the strategy identifies price inefficiencies across markets, allowing traders to take advantage of the natural reversion to the mean that often occurs in these correlated assets.
BTCUSD 8hr Performance
█ Strategy, How It Works: Detailed Explanation
The strategy relies on Bollinger Bands to assess the volatility and relative deviation of the spread between CME Bitcoin Futures and Bitfinex BTCUSD Spot prices. Bollinger Bands consist of a moving average and two standard deviation bands, which help measure how much the spread deviates from its historical mean.
🔶 Spread Calculation:
The spread is calculated by subtracting the Bitfinex spot price from the CME Bitcoin futures price:
Spread = CME Price - Bitfinex Price
This spread represents the difference between the futures and spot markets, which may widen or narrow based on supply and demand dynamics in each market. By analyzing the spread, the strategy can detect when prices are too far apart (potentially overbought or oversold), indicating a trading opportunity.
🔶 Bollinger Bands Calculation:
The Bollinger Bands for the spread are calculated using a simple moving average (SMA) and the standard deviation of the spread over a defined period.
1. Moving Average (SMA):
The simple moving average of the spread (mu_S) over a specified period P is calculated as:
mu_S = (1/P) * sum(S_i from i=1 to P)
Where S_i represents the spread at time i, and P is the lookback period (default is 200 bars). The moving average provides a baseline for the normal spread behavior.
2. Standard Deviation:
The standard deviation (sigma_S) of the spread is calculated to measure the volatility of the spread:
sigma_S = sqrt((1/P) * sum((S_i - mu_S)^2 from i=1 to P))
3. Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands:
The upper and lower Bollinger Bands are derived by adding and subtracting a multiple of the standard deviation from the moving average. The number of standard deviations is determined by a user-defined parameter k (default is 2.618).
- Upper Band:
Upper Band = mu_S + (k * sigma_S)
- Lower Band:
Lower Band = mu_S - (k * sigma_S)
These bands provide a dynamic range within which the spread typically fluctuates. When the spread moves outside of these bands, it is considered overbought or oversold, potentially offering trading opportunities.
Local view
🔶 Entry Conditions:
- Long Entry: A long position is triggered when the spread crosses below the lower Bollinger Band, indicating that the spread has become oversold and is likely to revert upward.
Spread < Lower Band
- Short Entry: A short position is triggered when the spread crosses above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating that the spread has become overbought and is likely to revert downward.
Spread > Upper Band
🔶 Risk Management and Profit-Taking:
The strategy incorporates multi-step take profits to lock in gains as the trade moves in favor. The position is gradually reduced at predefined profit levels, reducing risk while allowing part of the trade to continue running if the price keeps moving favorably.
Additionally, the strategy uses a hold period exit mechanism. If the trade does not hit any of the take-profit levels within a certain number of bars, the position is closed automatically to avoid excessive exposure to market risks.
█ Trade Direction
The trade direction is based on deviations of the spread from its historical norm:
- Long Trade: The strategy enters a long position when the spread crosses below the lower Bollinger Band, signaling an oversold condition where the spread is expected to narrow.
- Short Trade: The strategy enters a short position when the spread crosses above the upper Bollinger Band, signaling an overbought condition where the spread is expected to widen.
These entries rely on the assumption of mean reversion, where extreme deviations from the average spread are likely to revert over time.
█ Usage
The Bitcoin CME-Spot Bollinger Bands Strategy is ideal for traders looking to capitalize on price inefficiencies between Bitcoin futures and spot markets. It’s especially useful in volatile markets where large deviations between futures and spot prices occur.
- Market Conditions: This strategy is most effective in correlated markets, like CME futures and spot Bitcoin. Traders can adjust the Bollinger Bands period and standard deviation multiplier to suit different volatility regimes.
- Backtesting: Before deployment, backtesting the strategy across different market conditions and timeframes is recommended to ensure robustness. Adjust the take-profit steps and hold periods to reflect the trader’s risk tolerance and market behavior.
█ Default Settings
The default settings provide a balanced approach to spread trading using Bollinger Bands but can be adjusted depending on market conditions or personal trading preferences.
🔶 Bollinger Bands Period (200 bars):
This defines the number of bars used to calculate the moving average and standard deviation for the Bollinger Bands. A longer period smooths out short-term fluctuations and focuses on larger, more significant trends. Adjusting the period affects the responsiveness of the strategy:
- Shorter periods (e.g., 100 bars): Makes the strategy more reactive to short-term market fluctuations, potentially generating more signals but increasing the risk of false positives.
- Longer periods (e.g., 300 bars): Focuses on longer-term trends, reducing the frequency of trades and focusing only on significant deviations.
🔶 Standard Deviation Multiplier (2.618):
The multiplier controls how wide the Bollinger Bands are around the moving average. By default, the bands are set at 2.618 standard deviations away from the average, ensuring that only significant deviations trigger trades.
- Higher multipliers (e.g., 3.0): Require a more extreme deviation to trigger trades, reducing trade frequency but potentially increasing the accuracy of signals.
- Lower multipliers (e.g., 2.0): Make the bands narrower, increasing the number of trade signals but potentially decreasing their reliability.
🔶 Take-Profit Levels:
The strategy has four take-profit levels to gradually lock in profits:
- Level 1 (3%): 25% of the position is closed at a 3% profit.
- Level 2 (8%): 20% of the position is closed at an 8% profit.
- Level 3 (14%): 15% of the position is closed at a 14% profit.
- Level 4 (21%): 10% of the position is closed at a 21% profit.
Adjusting these take-profit levels affects how quickly profits are realized:
- Lower take-profit levels: Capture gains more quickly, reducing risk but potentially cutting off larger profits.
- Higher take-profit levels: Let trades run longer, aiming for bigger gains but increasing the risk of price reversals before profits are locked in.
🔶 Hold Days (20 bars):
The strategy automatically closes the position after 20 bars if none of the take-profit levels are hit. This feature prevents trades from being held indefinitely, especially if market conditions are stagnant. Adjusting this:
- Shorter hold periods: Reduce the duration of exposure, minimizing risks from market changes but potentially closing trades too early.
- Longer hold periods: Allow trades to stay open longer, increasing the chance for mean reversion but also increasing exposure to unfavorable market conditions.
By understanding how these default settings affect the strategy’s performance, traders can optimize the Bitcoin CME-Spot Bollinger Bands Strategy to their preferences, adapting it to different market environments and risk tolerances.
High/Low Breakout Statistical Analysis StrategyThis Pine Script strategy is designed to assist in the statistical analysis of breakout systems on a monthly, weekly, or daily timeframe. It allows the user to select whether to open a long or short position when the price breaks above or below the respective high or low for the chosen timeframe. The user can also define the holding period for each position in terms of bars.
Core Functionality:
Breakout Logic:
The strategy triggers trades based on price crossing over (for long positions) or crossing under (for short positions) the high or low of the selected period (daily, weekly, or monthly).
Timeframe Selection:
A dropdown menu enables the user to switch between the desired timeframe (monthly, weekly, or daily).
Trade Direction:
Another dropdown allows the user to select the type of trade (long or short) depending on whether the breakout occurs at the high or low of the timeframe.
Holding Period:
Once a trade is opened, it is automatically closed after a user-defined number of bars, making it useful for analyzing how breakout signals perform over short-term periods.
This strategy is intended exclusively for research and statistical purposes rather than real-time trading, helping users to assess the behavior of breakouts over different timeframes.
Relevance of Breakout Systems:
Breakout trading systems, where trades are executed when the price moves beyond a significant price level such as the high or low of a given period, have been extensively studied in financial literature for their potential predictive power.
Momentum and Trend Following:
Breakout strategies are a form of momentum-based trading, exploiting the tendency of prices to continue moving in the direction of a strong initial movement after breaching a critical support or resistance level. According to academic research, momentum strategies, including breakouts, can produce returns above average market returns when applied consistently. For example, Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) demonstrated that stocks that performed well in the past 3-12 months continued to outperform in the subsequent months, suggesting that price continuation patterns, like breakouts, hold value .
Market Efficiency Hypothesis:
While the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) posits that markets are generally efficient, and it is difficult to outperform the market through technical strategies, some studies show that in less liquid markets or during specific times of market stress, breakout systems can capitalize on temporary inefficiencies. Taylor (2005) and other researchers have found instances where breakout systems can outperform the market under certain conditions.
Volatility and Breakouts:
Breakouts are often linked to periods of increased volatility, which can generate trading opportunities. Coval and Shumway (2001) found that periods of heightened volatility can make breakouts more significant, increasing the likelihood that price trends will follow the breakout direction. This correlation between volatility and breakout reliability makes it essential to study breakouts across different timeframes to assess their potential profitability .
In summary, this breakout strategy offers an empirical way to study price behavior around key support and resistance levels. It is useful for researchers and traders aiming to statistically evaluate the effectiveness and consistency of breakout signals across different timeframes, contributing to broader research on momentum and market behavior.
References:
Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency. Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65-91.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1996). Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies. Journal of Finance, 51(1), 55-84.
Taylor, S. J. (2005). Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction. Princeton University Press.
Coval, J. D., & Shumway, T. (2001). Expected Option Returns. Journal of Finance, 56(3), 983-1009.
Flexible Moving Average StrategyThis strategy offers flexibility to choose between SMA and EMA, and allows users to set the review frequency to Daily, Weekly, or Monthly. It adapts to different market conditions by providing full control over the length and timeframe of the Moving Average.
### Key Features:
- **Moving Average Method**: Select between SMA and EMA.
- **Review Frequency**: Choose Daily, Weekly, or Monthly review periods.
- **Customizable**: Set the Moving Average length and timeframe.
- **Entry/Exit Rules**:
- **Enter Long**: When the close price is above the Moving Average at the end of the period.
- **Exit**: When the close price falls below the Moving Average.
### Parameters:
- **Review Frequency**: Daily, Weekly, Monthly
- **Moving Average Method**: SMA or EMA
- **Length & Timeframe**: Fully adjustable
This strategy suits traders who prefer a flexible, trend-following approach based on long-term price movements.
High Yield Spread Strategy with SMA FilterThis Pine Script strategy is designed for statistical analysis and research purposes only, not for live trading or financial decision-making. The script evaluates the relationship between financial volatility (measured by either the VIX or the High Yield Spread) and market positioning strategies (long or short) based on user-defined conditions. Specifically, it allows users to test the assumption that elevated levels of VIX or the High Yield Spread may justify short positions in the market—a widely held belief in financial circles—but this script demonstrates that shorting is not always the optimal choice, even under these conditions.
Key Components:
1. High Yield Spread and VIX:
• High Yield Spread is the difference between the yields of corporate high-yield (or “junk”) bonds and U.S. Treasury securities. A rising spread often reflects increased market risk perception.
• VIX (Volatility Index) is often referred to as the market’s “fear gauge.” Higher VIX levels usually indicate heightened market uncertainty or expected volatility.
2. Strategy Logic:
• The script allows users to specify a threshold for the VIX or High Yield Spread, and it automatically evaluates if the spread exceeds this level, which traditionally would suggest an environment for higher market risk and thus potentially favoring short trades.
• However, the strategy provides flexibility to enter long or short positions, even in a high-risk environment, emphasizing that a high VIX or High Yield Spread does not always warrant shorting.
3. SMA Filter:
• A Simple Moving Average (SMA) filter can be applied to the price data, where positions are only entered if the price is above or below the SMA (depending on the trade direction). This adds a technical component to the strategy, incorporating price trends into decision-making.
4. Hold Duration:
• The script also allows users to define how long to hold a position after entering, enabling an analysis of different timeframes.
Theoretical Background:
The traditional belief that high VIX or High Yield Spreads favor short positions is not universally supported by research. While a spike in the VIX or credit spreads is often associated with increased market risk, research suggests that excessive volatility does not always lead to negative returns. In fact, high volatility can sometimes signal an approaching market rebound.
For example:
• Studies have shown that long-term investments during periods of heightened volatility can yield favorable returns due to mean reversion. Whaley (2000) notes that VIX spikes are often followed by market recoveries as volatility tends to revert to its mean over time .
• Research by Blitz and Vliet (2007) highlights that low-volatility stocks have historically outperformed high-volatility stocks, suggesting that volatility may not always predict negative returns .
• Furthermore, credit spreads can widen in response to broader market stress, but these may overshoot the actual credit risk, presenting opportunities for long positions when spreads are high and risk premiums are mispriced .
Educational Purpose:
The goal of this script is to challenge assumptions about shorting during volatile periods, showing that long positions can be equally, if not more, effective during market stress. By incorporating an SMA filter and customizable logic for entering trades, users can test different hypotheses regarding the effectiveness of both long and short positions under varying market conditions.
Note: This strategy is not intended for live trading and should be used solely for educational and statistical exploration. Misinterpreting financial indicators can lead to incorrect investment decisions, and it is crucial to conduct comprehensive research before trading.
References:
1. Whaley, R. E. (2000). “The Investor Fear Gauge”. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 26(3), 12-17.
2. Blitz, D., & van Vliet, P. (2007). “The Volatility Effect: Lower Risk Without Lower Return”. Journal of Portfolio Management, 34(1), 102-113.
3. Bhamra, H. S., & Kuehn, L. A. (2010). “The Determinants of Credit Spreads: An Empirical Analysis”. Journal of Finance, 65(3), 1041-1072.
This explanation highlights the academic and research-backed foundation of the strategy and the nuances of volatility, while cautioning against the assumption that high VIX or High Yield Spread always calls for shorting.
Simplified Gap Strategy with SMA FilterThe Simplified Gap Strategy leverages price gaps as a trading signal, focusing on their significance in market behavior. Gaps occur when the opening price of a security differs significantly from the previous closing price, often signaling potential continuation or reversal patterns.
Key Features:
Gap Threshold:
This strategy requires a minimum percentage gap (defined by the user) to qualify for trading signals.
Directional Trading:
Users can select from various gap types, including "Long Up Gap" and "Short Down Gap," allowing for tailored trading approaches.
SMA Filter:
An optional Simple Moving Average (SMA) filter helps refine trade entries based on trend direction, increasing the probability of successful trades.
Hold Duration:
Positions can be held for a user-defined duration, providing flexibility in trade management.
Statistical Significance of Gaps:
Research has shown that gaps can provide insights into future price movements. According to studies such as those by Hutton and Jiang (2008), price gaps are often followed by momentum in the direction of the gap, indicating that they can serve as reliable indicators for traders. The "Gap Theory" suggests that gaps are filled approximately 90% of the time, emphasizing their relevance in market dynamics (Nikkinen, Sahlström, & Kinnunen, 2006).
Important Note:
This strategy is designed solely for statistical analysis and should not be construed as financial advice. Users are encouraged to conduct their own research and analysis before applying this strategy in live trading scenarios.
By understanding the underlying mechanisms of price gaps and their statistical significance, traders can enhance their decision-making processes and potentially improve trading outcomes.
References:
Hutton, A. W., & Jiang, W. (2008). "Price Gaps: A Guide to Trading Gaps."
Nikkinen, J., Sahlström, P., & Kinnunen, J. (2006). "The Gaps in Financial Markets: An Empirical Study."
This description provides an overview of the strategy while emphasizing its analytical purpose and backing it with relevant academic insights.
Streak-Based Trading StrategyThe strategy outlined in the provided script is a streak-based trading strategy that focuses on analyzing winning and losing streaks. It’s important to emphasize that this strategy is not intended for actual trading but rather for statistical analysis of streak series.
How the Strategy Works
1. Parameter Definition:
• Trade Direction: Users can choose between “Long” (buy) and “Short” (sell).
• Streak Threshold: Defines how many consecutive wins or losses are needed to trigger a trade.
• Hold Duration: Specifies how many periods the position will be held.
• Doji Threshold: Determines the sensitivity for Doji candles, which indicate market uncertainty.
2. Streak Calculation:
• The script identifies Doji candles and counts winning and losing streaks based on the closing price compared to the previous closing price.
• Streak counting occurs only when no position is currently held.
3. Trade Conditions:
• If the loss streak reaches the defined threshold and the trade direction is “Long,” a buy position is opened.
• If the win streak is met and the trade direction is “Short,” a sell position is opened.
• The position is held for the specified duration.
4. Visualization:
• Winning and losing streaks are plotted as histograms to facilitate analysis.
Scientific Basis
The concept of analyzing streaks in financial markets is well-documented in behavioral economics and finance. Studies have shown that markets often exhibit momentum and trend-following behavior, meaning the likelihood of consecutive winning or losing periods can be higher than what random statistics would suggest (see, for example, “The Behavior of Stock-Market Prices” by Eugene Fama).
Additionally, empirical research indicates that investors often make decisions based on psychological factors influenced by streaks. This can lead to irrational behavior, as they may focus on past wins or losses (see “Behavioral Finance: Psychology, Decision-Making, and Markets” by R. M. F. F. Thaler).
Overall, this strategy serves as a tool for statistical analysis of streak series, providing deeper insights into market behavior and trends rather than being directly used for trading decisions.
Multi-Step FlexiMA - Strategy [presentTrading]It's time to come back! hope I can not to be busy for a while.
█ Introduction and How It Is Different
The FlexiMA Variance Tracker is a unique trading strategy that calculates a series of deviations between the price (or another indicator source) and a variable-length moving average (MA). Unlike traditional strategies that use fixed-length moving averages, the length of the MA in this system varies within a defined range. The length changes dynamically based on a starting factor and an increment factor, creating a more adaptive approach to market conditions.
This strategy integrates Multi-Step Take Profit (TP) levels, allowing for partial exits at predefined price increments. It enables traders to secure profits at different stages of a trend, making it ideal for volatile markets where taking full profits at once might lead to missed opportunities if the trend continues.
BTCUSD 6hr Performance
█ Strategy, How It Works: Detailed Explanation
🔶 FlexiMA Concept
The FlexiMA (Flexible Moving Average) is at the heart of this strategy. Unlike traditional MA-based strategies where the MA length is fixed (e.g., a 50-period SMA), the FlexiMA varies its length with each iteration. This is done using a **starting factor** and an **increment factor**.
The formula for the moving average length at each iteration \(i\) is:
`MA_length_i = indicator_length * (starting_factor + i * increment_factor)`
Where:
- `indicator_length` is the user-defined base length.
- `starting_factor` is the initial multiplier of the base length.
- `increment_factor` increases the multiplier in each iteration.
Each iteration applies a **simple moving average** (SMA) to the chosen **indicator source** (e.g., HLC3) with a different length based on the above formula. The deviation between the current price and the moving average is then calculated as follows:
`deviation_i = price_current - MA_i`
These deviations are normalized using one of the following methods:
- **Max-Min normalization**:
`normalized_i = (deviation_i - min(deviations)) / range(deviations)`
- **Absolute Sum normalization**:
`normalized_i = deviation_i / sum(|deviation_i|)`
The **median** and **standard deviation (stdev)** of the normalized deviations are then calculated as follows:
`median = median(normalized deviations)`
For the standard deviation:
`stdev = sqrt((1/(N-1)) * sum((normalized_i - mean)^2))`
These values are plotted to provide a clear indication of how the price is deviating from its variable-length moving averages.
For more detail:
🔶 Multi-Step Take Profit
This strategy uses a multi-step take profit system, allowing for exits at different stages of a trade based on the percentage of price movement. Three take-profit levels are defined:
- Take Profit Level 1 (TP1): A small, quick profit level (e.g., 2%).
- Take Profit Level 2 (TP2): A medium-level profit target (e.g., 8%).
- Take Profit Level 3 (TP3): A larger, more ambitious target (e.g., 18%).
At each level, a corresponding percentage of the trade is exited:
- TP Percent 1: E.g., 30% of the position.
- TP Percent 2: E.g., 20% of the position.
- TP Percent 3: E.g., 15% of the position.
This approach ensures that profits are locked in progressively, reducing the risk of market reversals wiping out potential gains.
Local
🔶 Trade Entry and Exit Conditions
The entry and exit signals are determined by the interaction between the **SuperTrend Polyfactor Oscillator** and the **median** value of the normalized deviations:
- Long entry: The SuperTrend turns bearish, and the median value of the deviations is positive.
- Short entry: The SuperTrend turns bullish, and the median value is negative.
Similarly, trades are exited when the SuperTrend flips direction.
* The SuperTrend Toolkit is made by @EliCobra
█ Trade Direction
The strategy allows users to specify the desired trade direction:
- Long: Only long positions will be taken.
- Short: Only short positions will be taken.
- Both: Both long and short positions are allowed based on the conditions.
This flexibility allows the strategy to adapt to different market conditions and trading styles, whether you're looking to buy low and sell high, or sell high and buy low.
█ Usage
This strategy can be applied across various asset classes, including stocks, cryptocurrencies, and forex. The primary use case is to take advantage of market volatility by using a flexible moving average and multiple take-profit levels to capture profits incrementally as the market moves in your favor.
How to Use:
1. Configure the Inputs: Start by adjusting the **Indicator Length**, **Starting Factor**, and **Increment Factor** to suit your chosen asset. The defaults work well for most markets, but fine-tuning them can improve performance.
2. Set the Take Profit Levels: Adjust the three **TP levels** and their corresponding **percentages** based on your risk tolerance and the expected volatility of the market.
3. Monitor the Strategy: The SuperTrend and the FlexiMA variance tracker will provide entry and exit signals, automatically managing the positions and taking profits at the pre-set levels.
█ Default Settings
The default settings for the strategy are configured to provide a balanced approach that works across different market conditions:
Indicator Length (10):
This controls the base length for the moving average. A lower length makes the moving average more responsive to price changes, while a higher length smooths out fluctuations, making the strategy less sensitive to short-term price movements.
Starting Factor (1.0):
This determines the initial multiplier applied to the moving average length. A higher starting factor will increase the average length, making it slower to react to price changes.
Increment Factor (1.0):
This increases the moving average length in each iteration. A larger increment factor creates a wider range of moving average lengths, allowing the strategy to track both short-term and long-term trends simultaneously.
Normalization Method ('None'):
Three methods of normalization can be applied to the deviations:
- None: No normalization applied, using raw deviations.
- Max-Min: Normalizes based on the range between the maximum and minimum deviations.
- Absolute Sum: Normalizes based on the total sum of absolute deviations.
Take Profit Levels:
- TP1 (2%): A quick exit to capture small price movements.
- TP2 (8%): A medium-term profit target for stronger trends.
- TP3 (18%): A long-term target for strong price moves.
Take Profit Percentages:
- TP Percent 1 (30%): Exits 30% of the position at TP1.
- TP Percent 2 (20%): Exits 20% of the position at TP2.
- TP Percent 3 (15%): Exits 15% of the position at TP3.
Effect of Variables on Performance:
- Short Indicator Lengths: More responsive to price changes but prone to false signals.
- Higher Starting Factor: Slows down the response, useful for longer-term trend following.
- Higher Increment Factor: Widens the variability in moving average lengths, making the strategy adapt to both short-term and long-term price trends.
- Aggressive Take Profit Levels: Allows for quick profit-taking in volatile markets but may exit positions prematurely in strong trends.
The default configuration offers a moderate balance between short-term responsiveness and long-term trend capturing, suitable for most traders. However, users can adjust these variables to optimize performance based on market conditions and personal preferences.
Post-Open Long Strategy with ATR-based Stop Loss and Take ProfitThe "Post-Open Long Strategy with ATR-Based Stop Loss and Take Profit" is designed to identify buying opportunities after the German and US markets open. It combines various technical indicators to filter entry signals, focusing on breakout moments following price lateralization periods.
Key Components and Their Interaction:
Bollinger Bands (BB):
Description: Uses BB with a 14-period length and standard deviation multiplier of 1.5, creating narrower bands for lower timeframes.
Role in the Strategy: Identifies low volatility phases (lateralization). The lateralization condition is met when the price is near the simple moving average of the BB, suggesting an imminent increase in volatility.
Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):
10-period EMA: Quickly detects short-term trend direction.
200-period EMA: Filters long-term trends, ensuring entries occur in a bullish market.
Interaction: Positions are entered only if the price is above both EMAs, indicating a consolidated positive trend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
Description: 7-period RSI with a threshold above 30.
Role in the Strategy: Confirms the market is not oversold, supporting the validity of the buy signal.
Average Directional Index (ADX):
Description: 7-period ADX with 7-period smoothing and a threshold above 10.
Role in the Strategy: Assesses trend strength. An ADX above 10 indicates sufficient momentum to justify entry.
Average True Range (ATR) for Dynamic Stop Loss and Take Profit:
Description: 14-period ATR with multipliers of 2.0 for Stop Loss and 4.0 for Take Profit.
Role in the Strategy: Adjusts exit levels based on current volatility, enhancing risk management.
Resistance Identification and Breakout:
Description: Analyzes the highs of the last 20 candles to identify resistance levels with at least two touches.
Role in the Strategy: A breakout above this level signals a potential continuation of the bullish trend.
Time Filters and Market Conditions:
Trading Hours: Operates only during the opening of the German market (8:00 - 12:00) and US market (15:30 - 19:00).
Panic Candle: The current candle must close negative, leveraging potential emotional reactions in the market.
Avoiding Entry During Pullbacks:
Description: Checks that the two previous candles are not both bearish.
Role in the Strategy: Avoids entering during a potential pullback, improving trade success probability.
Post-Open Long Strategy with ATR-Based Stop Loss and Take Profit
The "Post-Open Long Strategy with ATR-Based Stop Loss and Take Profit" is designed to identify buying opportunities after the German and US markets open. It combines various technical indicators to filter entry signals, focusing on breakout moments following price lateralization periods.
Key Components and Their Interaction:
Bollinger Bands (BB):
Description: Uses BB with a 14-period length and standard deviation multiplier of 1.5, creating narrower bands for lower timeframes.
Role in the Strategy: Identifies low volatility phases (lateralization). The lateralization condition is met when the price is near the simple moving average of the BB, suggesting an imminent increase in volatility.
Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):
10-period EMA: Quickly detects short-term trend direction.
200-period EMA: Filters long-term trends, ensuring entries occur in a bullish market.
Interaction: Positions are entered only if the price is above both EMAs, indicating a consolidated positive trend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
Description: 7-period RSI with a threshold above 30.
Role in the Strategy: Confirms the market is not oversold, supporting the validity of the buy signal.
Average Directional Index (ADX):
Description: 7-period ADX with 7-period smoothing and a threshold above 10.
Role in the Strategy: Assesses trend strength. An ADX above 10 indicates sufficient momentum to justify entry.
Average True Range (ATR) for Dynamic Stop Loss and Take Profit:
Description: 14-period ATR with multipliers of 2.0 for Stop Loss and 4.0 for Take Profit.
Role in the Strategy: Adjusts exit levels based on current volatility, enhancing risk management.
Resistance Identification and Breakout:
Description: Analyzes the highs of the last 20 candles to identify resistance levels with at least two touches.
Role in the Strategy: A breakout above this level signals a potential continuation of the bullish trend.
Time Filters and Market Conditions:
Trading Hours: Operates only during the opening of the German market (8:00 - 12:00) and US market (15:30 - 19:00).
Panic Candle: The current candle must close negative, leveraging potential emotional reactions in the market.
Avoiding Entry During Pullbacks:
Description: Checks that the two previous candles are not both bearish.
Role in the Strategy: Avoids entering during a potential pullback, improving trade success probability.
Entry and Exit Conditions:
Long Entry:
The price breaks above the identified resistance.
The market is in a lateralization phase with low volatility.
The price is above the 10 and 200-period EMAs.
RSI is above 30, and ADX is above 10.
No short-term downtrend is detected.
The last two candles are not both bearish.
The current candle is a "panic candle" (negative close).
Order Execution: The order is executed at the close of the candle that meets all conditions.
Exit from Position:
Dynamic Stop Loss: Set at 2 times the ATR below the entry price.
Dynamic Take Profit: Set at 4 times the ATR above the entry price.
The position is automatically closed upon reaching the Stop Loss or Take Profit.
How to Use the Strategy:
Application on Volatile Instruments:
Ideal for financial instruments that show significant volatility during the target market opening hours, such as indices or major forex pairs.
Recommended Timeframes:
Intraday timeframes, such as 5 or 15 minutes, to capture significant post-open moves.
Parameter Customization:
The default parameters are optimized but can be adjusted based on individual preferences and the instrument analyzed.
Backtesting and Optimization:
Backtesting is recommended to evaluate performance and make adjustments if necessary.
Risk Management:
Ensure position sizing respects risk management rules, avoiding risking more than 1-2% of capital per trade.
Originality and Benefits of the Strategy:
Unique Combination of Indicators: Integrates various technical metrics to filter signals, reducing false positives.
Volatility Adaptability: The use of ATR for Stop Loss and Take Profit allows the strategy to adapt to real-time market conditions.
Focus on Post-Lateralization Breakout: Aims to capitalize on significant moves following consolidation periods, often associated with strong directional trends.
Important Notes:
Commissions and Slippage: Include commissions and slippage in settings for more realistic simulations.
Capital Size: Use a realistic trading capital for the average user.
Number of Trades: Ensure backtesting covers a sufficient number of trades to validate the strategy (ideally more than 100 trades).
Warning: Past results do not guarantee future performance. The strategy should be used as part of a comprehensive trading approach.
With this strategy, traders can identify and exploit specific market opportunities supported by a robust set of technical indicators and filters, potentially enhancing their trading decisions during key times of the day.
Custom Buy BID StrategyThis Pine Script strategy is designed to identify and capitalize on upward trends in the market using the Average True Range (ATR) as a core component of the analysis. The script provides the following features:
Customizable ATR Calculation: Users can switch between different methods of ATR calculation (traditional or simple moving average).
Adjustable Parameters: The strategy allows for adjustable ATR periods, ATR multipliers, and custom time windows for executing trades.
Buy Signal Alerts: The strategy generates buy signals when the market shifts from a downtrend to an uptrend, based on ATR and price action.
Profit and Stop-Loss Management: Built-in take profit and stop-loss conditions are calculated as a percentage of the entry price, allowing for automatic position management.
Visual Enhancements: The script highlights the uptrend with green lines and optionally colors bars to help visualize market direction.
Flexible Timeframe: Users can configure a specific date range to activate the strategy, offering more control over when trades are executed.
This strategy is ideal for traders looking to automate their buy entries and manage risk with a straightforward trend-following approach. By utilizing customizable settings, it adapts to various market conditions and timeframes.
