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USDJPY I Up 260 Pips! Short coming soonWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
31
P2P | XAUUAD - Backtesting PT.2Alright so as you can see in this clip I was rushing trades and not taking my confirmations 1 at a time. It's important to analyze your charts for confluences because most of the time they will catch you slipping and you'll end up making a mistake that will cost you money. (Good thing this is just a backtest LOL) So here you can just get a bit more insight on the idea of the trades I take, what happens when you're impatient, and what most swing traders anticipate when playing the long game. If you guys want to see me backtest other pairs feel free to drop your idea/input in the comment section and I will do my best to assist you with a video! Also anything you've learned watching these please comment below! The more I know on what you see/don't see will help me make these videos a lot better (: ** BTW PEEPS IM A FIRM BELIEVER IN BREAKING EVEN & TAKING PARTIALS, THIS IS JUST A CLIP OF ANTICIPATED SWING TRADES AND TRADE SETUPS** So with that being said, happy trading, trade well, and lets run it up from 2023 til infinity! If you got some value out of this video please share it, boost it to your trading pals, and help grow the channel. DISCLAIMER: ***This page is for educational purposes only and is not intended for any financial advise. I am not a financial advisor nor do I manage any other accounts for our users. Any trades you take will be of your own doing and P2P will not be held responsible.***
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Pips2Porsches
1
Trends beginning to show a mixed bagSo we got the downward movement I've been calling and waiting for finally. I did jump out earlier than I anticipated. I'd said I thought we'd get close to 3900 on the next descent, but my trading strategy gave me no logical reason to stay in past 3946 so I got out at 3943 as I don't trade off my "gut", I trade with trends. The 6hr downtrend signal came much higher than I expected, and now the only downtrend signal we have left is a 12hr downtrend which I wouldn't be surprised to see here shortly. So, all in all, while I'm bummed I did miss out on the extra 30 points down ($1500), I am not confident we are staying down here for very long. Additionally, my 12hr chart actually has us in a "Strong Uptrend" condition, even with this pull back, which would be calling for us then to return to 3993. I don't feel quote confident enough to go long on that, but it certainly provides me some pause. If we hit a 12hr downtrend, then I expect us to at least have a small bounce and get a 30m uptrend, because we have no trends left to take us lower. If you are only interested in the trend numbers, here they are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4004 Downtrend (1/18/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 3980 Downtrend (1/18/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 3965 Downtrend (1/18/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 3965 Downtrend (1/18/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 3945 Downtrend (1/18/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 3946 Downtrend (1/18/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 3810 Downtrend (12/28/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Economic Data; We have jobs numbers today in about 30 minutes. I expect that to cause some ripples in the market. Earnings; Procter & Gamble (BTO) and Netflix (AMC) are today. Both are heavy weights and could send ripples through their respective industries. So I'd do some digging into the forward guidance of those companies as we continue to kick off earnings season. Overall my sentiment at 08:00 EST is; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral/Hint Bullish Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral/Bearish Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan comes first!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
3
Trends and Triangles; The outlook of 2023So this is a longer video, as I discuss more than just the current market, but where I foresee price action heading into at least the first half of the year, and why. I apologize for the painful observance of me trying to switch around on time charts, I'm still getting used to TradingView at times and so it is certainly my issue of being unfamiliar and learning while recording. My current trade is a short at 4013, and I had believed that the CPI data would spike us up, I didn't really see the spike on that data. Another trader mentioned that perhaps the weekly surge was a prespike on the CPI data we already had, and I can certainly agree with this sentiment. Once I was sure we were failing to get new highs, I went short. My reasoning for going short, as stated in the video, is that our last 4hr (and 3hr and 6hr) uptrends are all lower highs and are downtrending. We've violated these lower highs for some time now, and I believe price is going to correct itself to pick up at least the 4hr downtrend now. That 4hr downtrend will likely, without some sort of spike reversal, hit around 3900. When it does hit, it will be a lower low based on the previous downtrend at 3980ish. I'll then be looking to see if the 6hr trend will also correct itself at that point. The trends for today are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3970 Downtrend (1/12/2023) Higher Lows 1Hr - 3970 Downtrend (1/12/2023) Higher Lows 2Hr - 3948 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 3877 Uptrend (12/29/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 3877 Uptrend (12/29/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 3913 Uptrend (1/6/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 3810 Downtrend (12/28/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low So, now for the longer analysis. As I'm sure we've all done, we see the downtrend of the top of price action of 2022. We attempted to break that downtrend at around 4000 here and again failed (so far, and it appears we are headed south if this price action continues into the open). I believe this rally was mostly based on people who decided that they think that by year end we will be higher, and so they bought back into the market, and don't plan to trade again until the end of the year when they hope there is a moderate return on investment like normal with the S&P (and there most likely will be). Most strong trend lines are broken within the 20-25% range of their whole. So for the downtrend in price of 2022, we started at 4800 and ended at 3600, all momentary peaks and plummets aside (I switch the line graphs to remove such clutter). The difference of the peak and base there is 1200, 25% of 1200 is 300, so therefore it is likely we can't break this downtrend in price action until we hit against it at 3900 or below. All that to be said, better luck next time Bulls. On a more Economic Data analysis level, even with cooling inflation, we failed to make new highs. I believe fundamentally this is because at some point, the conversation is coming away from, "Zoinks, inflation and FOMC Rate Levels are driving the market!!!" to "Flustering forecasts, are we going to have a recession?!" Basically, markets have not prepared, priced in, and completely braced, for the pain that the rate hikes and slowing economy is going to have on valuations of stock prices. Now, I am not 100% in the camp that we will make new lows. I saw a trendline that developed over a decade that went from resistance to support and hit around 3530-3550 early last year, and called for us to bounce off that price action. Well, we saw that rally occur, and it occurred off bad inflation data when there was no reason for the market to rally otherwise. Therefore, I won't see us finding new lows until we break, and hold (as in for about 3 days or more), below that line. So in the mean time, I expect price action to range from around 3600-4000 (and the higher range is dropping as this downtrend price action continues to descend). Hope you found the longer video and longer transcript here helpful. My current sentiment is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Bearish/Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
7
Morning Update- The Yens For The WinI don't have much to say about this week's trading except, glad it went the way it did and CPI data helped price move this week. I took advantage of a few Japanese Yen trades. My hopes is that you did too. In my humble opinion, they moved better to me than most currency pairs did. So, yay! It's the Yen's for the win! Now to update. Most Yen pairs made new lows. This is the best time to update your charts to find an opportunity to possible sell again, if your strategy meshes with the recent movement of course. I'd love to see fullbacks via the daily timeframe before I enter another longterm swing again, but thats just me. Be well. Happy Friday. Enjoy your weekend. I'll see you all Sunday night at 8:00 pm EST. for another live stream. -Shaquan
Short
by ShaquanLopez
4
USDJPY I Best place to swing short next week!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
12
Trends maxing out to the upside; Prepare for potential downsideSo we got that 12hr uptrend signal we wanted. Nearly every trend signal is in an uptrend now, except the Daily. I've discussed the importance of this Daily uptrend signal hitting for some time now as it will be the first higher high in nearly a year. That being said, if it comes, I expect some choppy initial reversing action to come with it as trends will be maxed to the uptrends. The trends going into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3919 Uptrend (1/10/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 3930 Uptrend (1/10/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 3948 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 3877 Uptrend (12/29/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 3877 Uptrend (12/29/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 3913 Uptrend (1/6/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 3810 Downtrend (12/28/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Initial price action today will be on Economic Data. Today we have CPI data regarding inflation, and weekly job data. If it comes in as expected or better, I expect the market to spike. However, my concern is that if that does spike, the upward momentum may be short lived and ultimately we will come back down. I may end up sitting out the day and trading a short going into tomorrow at the close of today if the whole day holds upward momentum, especially if that momentum is enough to get a Daily Uptrend signal. If the Daily uptrend signal happens, and we max out our trends, prepare for the Trends to prove themselves true once again, and show how we can't go upward without some additional downtrend movements to allow us new uptrends. So, overall my sentiment into today is; Shorter Term - Bullish Short Term - Bullish/Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Bearish/Neutral Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
5
Can the 12hr trend hold until 13:00 EST?So the video explains it better, but ultimately I'm looking to see if we can get another 12hr uptrend signal here and see if it can hold again into that 13:00 EST closing bar on a 12hr chart. If/When that happens, I'll be watching price action to see if I want to cash out on my trade (Long 3920) or hold on to see if we can get a bit higher and even potentially hit that Uptrend Daily mark. I discuss the importance of the Daily Uptrend hitting up here and not having the market swing exponentially lower in the video as well. The trends for the day going in are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3919 Uptrend (1/10/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 3930 Uptrend (1/10/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 3948 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 3877 Uptrend (12/29/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 3877 Uptrend (12/29/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 3913 Uptrend (1/6/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 3918 Downtrend (12/15/2022) Lower Low Daily - 3810 Downtrend (12/28/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Economic Data - Nothing much today. All eyes will be on CPI tomorrow. Earnings - None today, Earnings season begins Friday. My sentiment is as follows; Shorter Term - Bullish Short Term - Bullish/Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Slight Bullish Long Term - Bearish/Neutral Safe trading and remember your risk management plan
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
Trends and Momentum show more potential upside before a downsideOn Friday I went Long at 3900 after waiting to see if we'd break that price range we'd been stuck in. I'm still currently sitting there, and overall looking to see if the market can finish with that movement I expected us to have going up to 3950-4000. We already this morning came within 6 points of the lower end of that level. We've managed to break the last several lower high uptrend signals we'd been battling on, and the next one we are shooting for is the 12hr uptrend. Once that hits, I may sit out to see if we manage to make a few more highs to a Daily uptrend, or if we fail around that 12hr uptrend mark. As I bring up in the video, if we get an Uptrend on the Daily here without falling back down, it will be the first higher high uptrend on the Daily we've seen in nearly a year. While I expect some pullback from there if it happens, it puts me in full neutral territory, as the Daily will have a higher high uptrend and a lower low downtrend. For Economic Data; Really nothing today. Any price action will likely be left over momentum from Friday. Powell speaks tomorrow and we have CPI on Thursday, those are likely to be the major factors this week. Earnings; Several financial earnings this week on the 13th, as we begin earnings season here for the 4th quarter of 2022. Thus far Earnings seasons have been a really positive mood overall for stocks and caused a rally, even during the stock drop of last year. My sentiment for today is basically the same as it has been for over a week. Shorter Term - Bullish Short Term - Bullish Medium Term - Bullish/Neutral Long Term - Bearish/Neutral Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
S&P Stuck in 3800-3900 zone; Patience is keyTrends still have us seeing some upside, but overall more downside, and price action reflects this in our price zone here. I still ultimately see us moving higher to around 3950-4000 before we have the ability make a major wave downward, however, as I stated yesterday, I'm not convinced enough in that movement or that we just head lower now to get involved in either move at this time. We have been in this 100 point range for 3 weeks now. Perhaps the JOLTs Job Data or the FOMC Minutes can purge us from this cursed land, but I really think the major data point for the week is going to be on Friday with Payroll and Unemployment data. To me, this area is all about patience unless you are trying to scalp for smaller moves. As I mention in the video, on a Daily Timeframe, the Nasdaq is nearly oversold and the Dow Jones is nearly overbought, so this is just areas of the market beginning to battle it out and the reality is that money is basically just being taken out of one pocket and put into another pocket, otherwise known as consolidation. Are we consolidated the recent downward movement before we head lower, or are we consolidating the overall movement up before we try to head higher? That is the question I think will get answered over time and I'm not jumping the gun on trying to foresee now, especially given the mixture of trends currently. I think the overall trend tone is that we head lower, but I just want to see a clearer picture of how we are getting there if that is the case. I could see the 2hr being a funnel in sending us there as the last 4 downtrend signals have more or less been directly in line with each other, but again, I also see some trends looking for a more significant timeline like the 6hr or 12hr to really lead the way if we are going to get ourselves back towards 3600. Anyways, enough of the ramble, Economic Data today; ISM info at 10:00 EST JOLTs Job Data at 10:00 EST FOMC Meeting Minutes at 14:00 EST All should cause some movement. My sentiment remains unchanged, though not confident enough to get involved with; Shorter Term - Bullish Short Term - Bullish Medium Term - Neutral/Bullish Long Term - Bearish/Neutral Looks like it might be another day of watching and waiting for me. Safe trading to you all!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
Trends beginning to show a movement to the upsideSo as I explain in the video, the 30m/1hr/2hr are all showing potential for more movement upward. They are in defiance of a 4hr lower high downtrend that we've pushed past, and have even now pushed above a 6hr and 12hr lower high downtrend as well. That puts me in a short term bullish stance unless we begin to fall back below the 6hr and 12hr lines in which I'd falter over to neutral. I don't know that I foresee a major movement day today, so I intend to likely just sort of watch and wait for now so I can feel like I'm back into the swing of things going into this year. The trends at this moment are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3875 Downtrend (1/03/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 3881 Uptrend (1/03/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 3906 Uptrend (1/03/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 3877 Uptrend (12/29/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 3877 Uptrend (12/29/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 3918 Downtrend (12/15/2022) Lower Low 12Hr - 3918 Downtrend (12/15/2022) Lower Low Daily - 3810 Uptrend (12/28/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Nothing major in the Economic Data today other than PMI. I think we get more guidance by data tomorrow with some jobs data. Overall my sentiment is; Shorter Term - Bullish Short Term - Bullish Medium Term - Neutral/Bullish Long Term - Neutral/Bearish To believe we are heading further down I want to either see the shorter duration trends show a downtrend or that we get below that Daily downtrend mark that closed around 3810. Safe Trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
1
Setups for MondayOrange pairs: AUDNZD, AUDCHF, NZDCHF, GBPCAD, EURAUD, GBPNZD, NZDCAD, EURNZD, EURCAD Green pairs: USDCHF and GBPCHF Purple pairs: AUDCAD and EURGBP * Orange = Moving away or getting slowly to our trade, not suitable for a trade yet unless it's giving a little bit more in our direction Green = Close to a trade, needs a break for anything serious Purple = Very close to a trade! Needs a retest or a break of exhaustion point for an entry. Have a great week all! :)
by stefann187
2
Missed my own call downward; However back in to a long positionSo about a week ago I had said that trends would take us likely to 3800. The level of frustration I had with myself when I realized we hit our final plummet (Thanks Bank of Japan) to 3800 and I missed 2/3 of that movement down was undeniable. However, as I had discussed a week ago, I felt that would be a potential bottom for us and that we could see this rally try to push higher from there. I used my entry point for when we crossed back above the lower high Daily trend mark seen in the video, which ended up around 3822. While we did NOT get a Daily downtrend mark, it signaled there, and so I decided that even if we ran flat as we passed back above the uptrend and I briefly had to hold a negative trade, all trends would be maxed to the downside and the following day would begin a rally. So far this prediction has held and I'm in a great position to see us head more to the upside, with a target goal of around 3950-4000 that I don't foresee us hitting until around the first week of January. All that said, that means this will most likely be my final video as I trade because I want the flexibility of my schedule to be how I want, and I want to take time off to spend with my family and away from the market. I'll likely check in, and might toss a comment on here occasionally, but otherwise with my daughter home from the military even Friday with PCE I have plans and will not really be around much. So as my likely final post of the trends, here they are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3847 Uptrend (12/20/2022) Lower High 1Hr - 3864 Uptrend (12/21/2022) Lower High 2Hr - 4008 Downtrend (12/15/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 3946 Downtrend (12/15/2022) Lower Low 4Hr - 3978 Downtrend (12/15/2022) Lower Low 6Hr - 3918 Downtrend (12/15/2022) Lower Low 12Hr - 3918 Downtrend (12/15/2022) Lower Low Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low I believe we have had been underneath the higher low of the weekly, that our next rally will see us get a weekly uptrend, which will most likely see us hit around the same 4300 mark we broke to head down. From there, I dunno, perhaps we see new lows. While a 25-30% reduction in market value is below normal recessions (most are around 50% as I've previously shown), we also have never had so much to lose, and no recession had over 1000 points lost either. So is it the % that is important, or the amount of valuation? That is for us all to decide, when (not really if) we finally acknowledge an economic recession and begin a new economic cycle. As I said in the video, in terms of market data; Today (Wednesday) - Consumer Confidence Tomorrow (Thursday) - Job Data and GDP Friday - PCE My sentiment into this; Shorter Term - Bullish Short Term - Bullish Medium Term - Bullish Long Term - Bearish/Neutral (really depends on how this next rally looks once we get above 4000). Additionally, I may no longer be able to discuss DailyFX sentiment (which is never a tell all anyways) as in spite of all the analysts they have being US Traders, they have some bizarre message I just saw today that the website is not for US Residents (very bizarre). Safe Trading, Happy Holidays if celebrated, and wishing all an amazing New Years.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
2
Trends nearly maxed out to the downside nowJust a few days ago, I had said we were maxing out to the upside. I expected us to go lower, but I certainly didn't expect to max out from an uptrending position to a downtrending position in less than 72 hours. We've managed to make it past the 12hr lower low downtrend which stopped me out overnight. I saw we were right along the lower low downtrend of the Daily we've had here and took that as a potential long position and got in at 3880. I see only two potential price actions from here... Even if we run flat here briefly, ultimately we can either run up to gather a 30m/1hr/2hr uptrend, which allows for us to make runs further down, or we continue down enough to get a daily downtrend signal, which maxes out our downtrends and then we have to have a brief rally for at LEAST a 30m uptrend, though I'd expect a more technical bounce than that. I am currently positioned for the first, and if that fails, than I'll likely try to wait to see if the 1st scenario resumes or wait for the 2nd scenario to develop, I won't trade in the middle ground of those two scenarios. For the trends; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4037 Downtrend (12/13/2022) Lower Low 1Hr - 4023 Downtrend (12/14/2022) Higher Low 2Hr - 4008 Downtrend (12/15/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 3946 Downtrend (12/15/2022) Lower Low 4Hr - 3978 Downtrend (12/15/2022) Lower Low 6Hr - 3918 Downtrend (12/15/2022) Lower Low 12Hr - 3918 Downtrend (12/15/2022) Lower Low Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low In terms of economic data; We have some manufacturing data coming out today, although I don't believe it will be some sort of massive info surge into the market. There is also apparently 4 trillion in options expiration today, so while I don't understand options because I don't trade them, that will likely cause most of today's volatility. My sentiment into today is; Shorter Term - Bullish/Neutral Short Term - Bullish/Neutral Medium Term - Bullish Long Term - Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
1
Some mixture in trends; 1hr/2hr call upward, 4hr/6hr want downI was able to not only make up for my poor trade on Tuesday, but also capitalize and put myself into profit for the week yesterday. I ended up closing out my trade from yesterday into today this morning, although it appears I may have jumped out a bit too early as we've already pushed 10 points past where I exited. All that being said, I'm just glad I was able to push back into a profitable week. The trend signals going into today have some mixture. The 1hr and 2hr would call for an upward bounce that would allow us to stay within this 12hr uptrend movement we are in, while the 3hr says we are exactly where we should be, and the 4hr and 6hr are calling for us to head down a bit further to create an overall downward trend. Overall, my sentiment is more in line with the 1hr and 2hr, but I'm going to be a bit cautious on where my entry points end up being to go Long. The trends for today, not including the currently pending 3hr, are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4037 Downtrend (12/13/2022) Lower Low 1Hr - 4023 Downtrend (12/14/2022) Higher Low 2Hr - 4008 Downtrend (12/14/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 3993 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 4019 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 4023 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low In terms of Economic Data; We had a decrease in Initial Jobless Claims today, not what the FED will want to see. However, we did see a slight increase in continued jobless claims, what the FED wants to see. Also, there is some movement coming from the ECB decision of a 50 bps hike and the current press conference. Overall my sentiment is as follows (from the current location of 3970); Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral/Bullish Medium Term - Neutral/Bullish Long Term - Neutral/Bearish Trade safely and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
Even with the pop upwards, trends held trueSo my trade didn't work out. I thought about it and decided I likely was being a bit greedy going into that trade and clearly was just "gambling" which I routinely warn against doing. While I likely would have made some if not all that money back, my risk management plan says if I lose a chunk of cash, I walk away for the day. Wasn't the first time, nor do I expect it to be the last. That being said, ultimately the trends held true. While we spiked well into an area above the trends being maxed out, I had said they won't be able to maintain any of that movement, and sure enough, even on good inflation data, they didn't and we ultimately went lower than when the data came out. Yesterday's candlestick is about as bearish as they come, although it could still go either way because of the economic data we now have to deal with today. At 14:00 EST is the FOMC Rate hike decision. I don't know that the decision will be significantly impacting, but the statement with the decision and the tone of the press conference afterwards likely is going to really impact market mood and sentiment. Due to getting a higher low 30m downtrend signal, I could see us rallying and holding some of that rally, at least into today. Ultimately though, my belief is that J Powell talks about how they can't roll over on fighting inflation just because we had a few good data points, that inflation is still way to high even if it is coming down, and that easing the fight could end up allowing inflation to creep back in and then be more difficult to fight off. He has said this multiple times. Therefore I see further rate hikes and certainly no rate cuts going into next year, and this will ultimately begin to hurt some returns and impact the market negatively as companies lose the ability to fake out earnings by beating low margins. The trends going into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4038 Downtrend (12/13/2022) Higher Low 1Hr - 3990 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Higher High 2Hr - 4019 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Higher High 3Hr - 3993 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 4019 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 4023 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Economic Data; Like I said, it is a Fed Day. Prepare yourself. My overall sentiment; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral/ Bearish Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Bearish I basically think any rally off of this is going to falter and come back over the next week, then we will have a week of very little activity as most traders take off Christmas/New Years in the US. Remember your risk management plan and trade safely!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
1
Trends claim to be nearly maxed out to the upside; Enter CPISo theoretically we are nearly maxed at trends. We've accumulated all the trends going upward in one swoop from 30m to 6hr. The 30m to 2hr claim to be in an uptrend, the 3hr to the 6hr claim to be in a downtrend. The 12hr claims we are in an uptrend, but that we are now sitting below of the funnel for that, and the Daily proclaims that we are sitting above the downtrending funnel for that. Confused? It is justified, because basically we have a set of trends sending us into different directions. All this mess and here we are going into CPI Data today and a FOMC rate hike decision tomorrow. Every time I think the market will settle before this data comes out, we have another 5 or 10 point surge upward too. It is moments like this I get to scratching my head when caution seems to begin to get tossed aside and the "hope brings hope" mentality of traders seems financially baffling to me. As I said I'm short 4049 based on trends. I may jump out of this trade before the CPI data, or just prepare to accept a potential loss of trends don't take hold. On these notes, here are the trends going into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3978 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Higher High 1Hr - 3990 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Higher High 2Hr - 4019 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Higher High 3Hr - 3993 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 4019 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 4023 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low If you are trading going into today, try to trade safely! My sentiment going into today is as follows; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Bearish/Neutral Safe trading! Especially on weeks like these!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
5
Trends don't show clear direction; All eyes on CPI tomorrowSo overall trends appear to be wanting to send us down, but not with great conviction. We are well within the 12hr funnel that was taking us higher, but have a funnel from the 6hr that looks to take us lower. The price action of the two basically has us dead smack in the middle. The significant gap between the Z and H contract is also causing some issues with trends, as the Z contract was running about 35 points below the current H contract. This makes it look like there was a big jump in valuation (be it Friday for TradingView or today for my own program) but that just isn't the case, as that contract had steadily been above the price action we were looking at. Overall trends going into today are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3978 Uptrend (12/12/2022) Lower High 1Hr - 3989 Downtrend (12/09/2022) Lower Low 2Hr - 3965 Downtrend (12/09/2022) Lower Low 3Hr - 4009 Downtrend (12/05/2022) Lower Low 4Hr - 4009 Downtrend (12/05/2022) Higher Low 6Hr - 3945 Downtrend (12/06/2022) Lower Low 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low I adjusted a few of the numbers into the current H contract where as I had them at the Z level on Friday. I think because of this confusion in valuation I may enjoy just sitting back today and watching the market today. As I mention in the video, I'd like to try and make about $5000 this week, and if I do, I think I'll take the remainder of the year off or work very little while I enjoy the holidays. Economic Data; There is very little data that matters today. CPI is tomorrow and FOMC rate decision and 'guidance' is Wednesday. Prepare yourself. My sentiment going into today from this current level of about 3980 is as follows; Shorter Term - Bearish/Neutral Short Term - Neutral/Bearish Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Bearish/Neutral So overall, I'm more looking at short positions, at least today. However, ultimately all things will be based on CPI data tomorrow. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends have corrected, but showed possible downside from hereSo here we are at 3990 just as I had expected us to go, where we are hitting back on that trendline that we broke. I can't say I've ever seen the TradingView chart have this consider pump in contract like it did this morning, so bear with me as that corrects itself and I can adjust everything later on. The trends are looking like as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3952 Uptrend (12/08/2022) Lower High 1Hr - 3965 Uptrend (12/08/2022) Lower High 2Hr - 3980 Uptrend (12/09/2022) Lower High 3Hr - 4009 Downtrend (12/05/2022) Lower Low 4Hr - 4009 Downtrend (12/05/2022) Higher Low 6Hr - 3945 Downtrend (12/06/2022) Lower Low 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low We are currently getting a 3 hour trend signal, and there is SOME possibility that we go up further to get a 4hr uptrend signal, but overall most of the trends have been showing lower lows, and that would make the 4 hour the last potential upward swing to this trend before we head lower. I will likely wait and see how things look before jumping in, but I do see a potential short coming. In terms of economic data; We have PPI today. It will be important because it will be the first November inflationary data point we have. While CPI and PCE are better indicators, they will come later on so I expect this reading to be looked at closely to try and garner insight into what those readings will be and ultimately how the FOMC will have to move on rates. My sentiment into today is as follows; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Bearish/Neutral Safe trading and remember your risk management plan
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Possible for some more minor upside before more downsideSo while we ended lower, I still would see yesterday's price action as a technical rally. While I wasn't feeling well and decided to take the rest of the day off after I made a good trade for $1500, had I stayed in I would have continuously bought in around the mid 20's to anything lower (again my entry point is usually based on a 3200 tick chart) and then sold out if things began to turn around on me yet again, just to rinse and repeat. I certainly wish I'd had my trading up around 20:00 EST, because that dip below 20 was without a doubt another great entry point. While I certainly think we could go higher here, I don't know that I want to go Long with us being here at the 3950 level. I also don't think I want to short here because there isn't a good chance we head back lower just yet. So here we are again... at choosing patience of profit. Not a huge issue, since I'm sitting at just under $7000 for the week. I could go back and do some scalping potentially, but otherwise I think I'll stay out. If you want the trends outside of the video, here they are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3952 Uptrend (12/08/2022) Lower High 1Hr - 4026 Downtrend (12/02/2022) Lower Low 2Hr - 4026 Downtrend (12/02/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 4009 Downtrend (12/05/2022) Lower Low 4Hr - 4009 Downtrend (12/05/2022) Higher Low 6Hr - 3945 Downtrend (12/06/2022) Lower Low 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Only the 30m changed to an uptrend since yesterday. So there is not a lot of changes there. Economic Data; We have job numbers out today. Should be important. It comes out in about 15 minutes. Overall today my sentiment is; Shorter Term - Neutral/Bullish Short Term - Neutral/Bullish Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Bearish/Neutral I always like to overall commit on a direction for the day, so I think ultimately we end higher today, but perhaps only higher from the close of yesterday (which we are already above). Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
2
Even most Downtrends call for a technical bounceSo I am long here again at 3918, and I'd like to see us at least run back up to 3990 to revisit the lower end of the funnel before we make the major move I was expecting downward. I don't expect a major move upward today, but possibly just a move back to zero, which would net me slightly below $1500. In spite of going against the flow yesterday, I sniped my entry points fairly well, and while I got stopped out on all of them, each one netted me between $50-$200, for a grand total of $700. Not bad considering I was going against the flow and was clearly at risk of going negative. I actually had even gotten into one last night at 3945 because of how certain I am we see some upward movement yesterday evening, but when things weren't fizzling and I didn't want to stress about the trade overnight I just hopped out at 3950. With the inclusion of the 6hr trend, we are currently holding these trends; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4060 Downtrend (12/01/2022) Higher Low 1Hr - 4026 Downtrend (12/02/2022) Lower Low 2Hr - 4026 Downtrend (12/02/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 4009 Downtrend (12/05/2022) Lower Low 4Hr - 4009 Downtrend (12/05/2022) Higher Low 6Hr - 3945 Downtrend (12/06/2022) Lower Low 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The 12hr is currently signaling though down here around 3923 (in the video it was there, when I just glanced it is gone here at 3924. We would have to maintain this downward movement until 13:00 EST to hold this downtrend signal, and I still think at least in the short term we run up and collect some of the trends we left behind as lower highs (30m/2hr/4hr). Economic Data; NonFarm Productivity may have SOME impact, but overall I don't see today's data causing a huge shift in positions. My sentiment going into today is as follows; Shorter Term - Bullish Short Term - Bullish/Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Bearish/Neutral Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
Trends continue a mixed signal; Patience and Caution is bestSo after just being completely spot on yesterday with calling the mispricing of Economic Data, I am sitting here looking at this market and feeling very mixed in my sentiment for today. We have a new higher low 3 hour trendline (which I drew in for today at least) and a lower low 4 hour trendline. It matches what we had the other day with the mixed 1hr/2hr trendlines, however this time I don't know of any missing Economic Data that needs to be priced in correctly. Ultimately, I could see us bouncing between 4005ish (the middle of the 4hr and 3hr) and 4025ish (the middle of the 1hr and 2hr), however I'm not confident enough in that to go into a Long at this point. As I mention in the video, being that I am over $4500 up for the week already just on Tuesday, gives me an advantage that maybe I just sit out today and let the Market paint a better picture. I go over in detail the two major price trend lines (not timeline trendlines) of all the highs and all the lows coming together, and without a doubt we are converging into the Apex of a triangle price action. I'd suggest you do some research on triangles in the market, as it is a fascinating topic of study. Realize, a triangle does NOT predict price DIRECTION (Up or Down), but only that there is a pending major price action MOVEMENT coming, as the psychological price points of "I think the market should go lower from here" and "I think the market should go higher from here" collide. Anyways, a bit of a ramble I suppose there, and if you were looking to skip all this, here are the trends going into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4060 Downtrend (12/01/2022) Higher Low 1Hr - 4026 Downtrend (12/02/2022) Lower Low 2Hr - 4026 Downtrend (12/02/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 4009 Downtrend (12/05/2022) Lower Low 4Hr - 4009 Downtrend (12/05/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low For Economic Data; It is just the Trades Balance today of Imports vs Exports. I don't foresee this having a major impact on prices today. Earnings; I won't mention it all week, but just FYI, Broadcom and Costco are both AMC on Thursday. They hold a decent weight and could cause some after-market trading going into Friday and more volatility during Thursday's trading hours. Overall, my sentiment is as follows; Shorter Term - Neutral/Slight Bullish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Hmmmmmmmmmmm Bullish/Neutral (Maybe back up close to 4100? Not sure) Long Term - Bearish (but maybe not a new low) I know, not a lot of that helps for your trading today, but I don't have a solid commitment to how I see the market going today. I'm going to mark it as a Long, only because I think we go up to 4025 today overall, not sure we stay there though. If you do trade, as always, remember your risk management plan and trade safely. Aim small, miss small. Be a Market Sniper.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader