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Trendtrading

Overcoming Anxiety & FOMOMy next trade setup on NZDCAD is only based off of me seeing clearly after experiencing FOMO and Anxiety. I pray Tradingview allows this type of conversation to happen because I truly feel like we don't talk about anxiety and Fomo enough in a spiritual manner. If this resonates with you, please share how it helps you by commenting below. Don't forget to like the video as well. Many thanks for watching this video. Thank you. My trade idea on NZDCAD: I'm awaiting for the daily candle closure. If it's bullish I'm buying back up to the -0.27 Fiboncaci Level -Shaquan
by ShaquanLopez
6
Forex Journal #3 : GBPUSD Keeps FallingIn my journal, I'm noticing GBPUSD made a new lower low on the 4 hour timeframe. Although price is in an uptrend as clearly seen on the daily and weekly timeframe, any sells taken will be a countertrend trade. I prefer to trade down to my weekly estimation zone 1.27620 and entering on the 4 hour timeframe to keep the stop loss small. Trade at your own risk and risk level. I'd love if you can reply your thoughts and like the video for more
Short
by ShaquanLopez
1
Forex Journal #1- GBPUSD Counter TradeIn my journal, I'm noticing GBPUSD made a new lower low on the 4 hour timeframe. Although price in in an uptrend as clearly seen on the daily and weekly timeframe, any sells taken will be a countertrend trade. I prefer to trade down to my weekly estimation zone 1.27585 and entering on the 4 hour timeframe to keep the stop loss small. Trade at your own risk and risk level. I'd love if you can reply your thoughts and like the video for more.
Short
by ShaquanLopez
GBPAUD I Pull back and strong resistance aheadWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** GBPAUD Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
2
Still sitting out, but wanted to check in!Hey all! Made a quick video to look at the market and just check in. I'm still enjoying my self made vacation and taking time away from the market while I think it is overinflated, as I want to see some normality come back in before I feel comfortable trading again. However, just wanted to say hello, explain what I'm waiting for, and wish everyone else best of trading if you're still in the daily grind! Safe Trading, and as always, remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
2
Extreme Greed and Overheated Market; Time to Walk AwaySo while I've had some gains on this market, especially below the 4300 range, at this point I cannot explain where this extreme level of optimism and risk taking behavior is coming from and I think it is time for me to walk away. While I can agree we are in a Bull Market, and I do not think at this point that we will be visiting the lows of 2022 without some major global catastrophe, I cannot get into any more movement upwards, and yet at the same time, I have decided continuing to try and catch the thrown knife is just going to lead to more issues for me. I MIGHT go Short at 4500, since 4500 is the highest projection for 2023 from ANY market and economic viewpoint, but even that just doesn't feel promising enough to mess with any of this. I've no idea what this rally is attached to other than AI excitement. The Forward Earnings of some companies are running at over 200x which is just absolute lunacy. So, all things being said, at this point I am walking away, and likely will continue to walk away until we drop back to may 4350 or so, and see if some of the excessive money into the FANG+ drops out and begins to get into a wider investment sentiment into the market. Safe trading if you stay in this, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
CPI Headline down; Core flatlined; Markets continue to soarSo we ran along the 30m uptrending line yesterday, and keep nearing striking the 6hr insanely steep ascending trendline I didn't think we could maintain. Much to my dismay, I am sitting in my negative trade. I may soon just eat a loss, which will cause me to take a day off as per my risk management plan. Luckily at the moment I did go Long yesterday in a couple 6E contracts and it has me up around the same amount I've been losing on the ES contract I have. I still hold out that I think we need to find a leg down, even if just briefly to around 4200, which is crazy at this point that 4200 so quickly became a potential support line. The FANG stocks are just barely shy of their highest trading prices ever, and will be there by today or tomorrow at the current growth rate we've been seeing. I understand the trends keep calling for upward movement, but I am definitely just baffled by how optimistic we seem to be and the sky rocketing valuations we are dealing with as a market index. The growth in the IT sector is over 30% already year to date. The current expectation is absolutely no slowing in growth this year, that none of the monetary tightening is going to impact anything, and that the world is moving forward without any risk. I suppose I am just entirely too cautious to get behind such a narrative at the moment. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ESU Contract) 30m - 4389 Downtrend (6/13/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4329 Uptrend (6/08/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4336 Uptrend (6/08/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4270 Uptrend (6/01/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4286 Uptrend (6/02/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4333 Uptrend (6/02/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 4261 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High Daily - 4175 Uptrend (3/31/2023) Only Trend Weekly - None Economic Data; As I said, CPI data came in, headline is down, but core inflation is mostly flat. Tomorrow is FOMC Rate day, so more fun to come! My sentiment overall is; WTF... I have nothing else haha Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
1
Trends maxed to upside; New Contract Trends; Overbought statusSo I have some other catching up to do, but currently it appears the ESU contract is now here, and as I've said over the last few weeks, I felt that the ESM contract was clearly going to be an upward moving contract, and that any leg down would be over the next contract. I continue to comment that with the major price gains on major tech stocks, if investors don't sell these stocks they haven't capitalized on the movement up... so there needs to be a sell off to capitalize on profit. Now that the next contract is here, because of the previous moves it is starting at 100 MFI overbought status on a weekly basis. So overall, while I'm not in bear mode, I see the next 3 months at least being relatively flat, with a leg down first before we decide if we come back up here or not. I think we will see the Fed monetary policy begin to hit the economy over the next 3 months, and additionally many major investment companies are likely to move away from active monitoring like they do most summers and retail investors could drive the prices down since there is a predominantly short position going into this summer period. Trends into today (Only /ESU23 contract); Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ESU Contract) 30m - 4363 Uptrend (6/12/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 4329 Uptrend (6/08/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4336 Uptrend (6/08/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4270 Uptrend (6/01/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4286 Uptrend (6/02/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4333 Uptrend (6/02/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 4261 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High Daily - 4175 Uptrend (3/31/2023) Only Trend Weekly - None The Long Position; Basically we can keep running the narrative that buy any minor dip. I'd say if things dip down to 4300 there would likely be a pullback up briefly, but I am trading with the expectation we need a leg down. The Short Position; Since we are maxed out to the uptrend, I see anything above 4363 as a entry point to the downside. I obviously believe this enough that I am actively short on this trade. Economic Data; Nothing today really. However, CPI is tomorrow, PPI is Wednesday, FOMC rate and statement is Wednesday, and jobs numbers on Thursday. Overall it should be an active week. I expect Powell it come across slightly hawkish to try and calm the market, since the massive jump in the market could ultimately undermine some of the monetary tightening they are attempting to do here. My sentiment is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish/Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Bullish/Neutral Safe trading, and remember your risk management!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends call for some upward movement; Conditions still flatSo I'm Long again in the ES from 4180 at the 6hr Higher Low downtrend point. I'm looking to see if we can get a 30m or even a 1hr uptrend and then I will likely cash out. I've an issue with the excessive upward slope of the 6hr, so I am currently looking at it as unreliable, but maybe over the next few weeks we will see a strong swing upward. This flat market (especially on a Weekly Analysis) is difficult to trade in, and I find it difficult to see things opening up room to the upside. The Market is still primarily being held up by the top companies and P/E forward earning ratios are just excessive in those companies. NVidia is trading at 175x Forward Earnings. I mean I get that the company has a good forward projection, but 175x Forward Earnings?! Anyways, Trends into today (Note... I realized in the video I had accidentally updated them to Lower High's... I've corrected them they are Higher Low's as they are all in downtrends) Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4219 Downtrend (5/30/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4219 Downtrend (5/30/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4207 Downtrend (5/30/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4204 Downtrend (5/30/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4194 Downtrend (5/31/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4182 Downtrend (5/31/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4224 Uptrend (5/28/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; If we fall below the 6hr line and then push back above, I'd see that as a potential entry point. That or if we fall today and hit a 12hr higher low. I don't see the floor falling out underneath us just yet, so any dip may be an entry point briefly for an upward push towards mid day like we've seen over and over. The Short Position; A strong push below the 6hr ascending line, currently at about 4192, could be a strong move to get a 12hr downtrend at least. Additionally, if we see upward movement and get a 30m/1hr uptrend, it may be an entry point to the downside. Economic Data; Jobs data and Manufacturing data today. Usually has some impact though I feel we've become fairly immune to the jobs data at this point. Bigger data points I think will be tomorrow. My Sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Slight bullish Long Term - Neutral/Reluctantly Bullish Safe trading and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
Trends maxed to the upside; Some small pullback expectedWith things like NVidia at 175x Forward Earnings, I really see some pullback here on these overheated tech stocks. However, I am waiting to see the upward momentum waver before I decide to go in short on this overly optimistic AI fueled rally. Trends are now maxed out to the upside, and so I expect some pullback there as well so we can have trends to take us higher. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4150 Uptrend (5/24/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4163 Uptrend (5/25/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4167 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4183 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4210 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4210 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 4224 Uptrend (5/28/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Economic Data; Mostly just jobs info all week. Couple other minor things but that is definitely the biggest driver all week. Earnings season is over. Geopolitical Issue; I think the biggest threat to this rally is Geopolitical issues rising with China and Taiwan, so keep your eyes on that. NVidia's success is based on their continued coupling with Taiwan Semi. Any threat to Taiwan, and subsequently Taiwan Semi, within the next 2 years or so while other companies gain the hardware to compete with Taiwan Semi, would crush the current AI bubble. That being said I haven't heard of any major aggression of China against Taiwan lately. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral/Bullish Ultimately I still think the deciding factor is going to be the ESM contract ending here shortly. Safe trading, and remember your risk management.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
Trends in a Middle Zone; direction undecidedI'm on my laptop working outside on my deck so this will probably be a bit brief. We basically have a flatlined higher high on the 2hr, I've gone short with it, but anything above this and my short positioning will be fizzled out for now. I'm up about $1000 on my 6E trade so I will be quick to cash out for a $4000 profit week and call it. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4150 Uptrend (5/24/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4163 Uptrend (5/25/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4167 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4180 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4159 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4144 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; With momentum beginning to shift back up, any movement above 4167 may be followed with more upside. Additionally any retracement down may be a buy the dip moment. The Short Position; I am in what I would consider the last short position at 4167ish. The only other move I see is a strong push below the lower high trend of the 30m at 4147ish today. Economic Data; We have PCE, Durable Goods, and Personal Income today. All could cause some movement here soon. Earnings; At this point I consider earnings season to be over. I understand the investment into AI, but overall if investors don't take profit when things are up, what is the point of investing. Looking to see if people take profit soon on the various tech climb. My sentiment overall is; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Bullish/Neutral Safe trading! Remember your risk management!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
Trends hitting resistance going up; Will NVidia Crash through?So the NVidia story could really disrupt the narrative that trends were pushing. Personally, while I like the optimism for NVidia, I can't say I'd want to get in at 230% valuation gain on the year. However, what do I know? I trade S&P Futures, not NVidia stocks. Ultimately I still think the overbought tech sector can't continue to carry the entire market, and that people are going to cash out at least for the moment some time soon, perhaps as we near the contract settling point of early June. I attempted to go short at the lower high 30m at the close of yesterday and was stopped out, and I am not short again at the 1hr lower high at 4164. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4150 Uptrend (5/24/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4163 Uptrend (5/25/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4180 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4180 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4159 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4144 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; I have no trends other than the Daily timeline in an uptrend at all. So I can't say I'm confident in any longs here. There is an upward trendline that comes in around 4140, so I suppose there is that... but overall I think we head sideways before we head up. The Short Position; The most recent short spot is 4164. A break below that trendline at 4140 is a late entry, or wait for things to turn negative at 4126ish. I like my entry point, it is why I stayed out all day yesterday to get this spot. Economic Data; Job Market remains robust, GDP slowing but above expectations, PCE showing potential flatline or increased inflationary data, and housing market is still flatlined. None of this makes me jump into the narrative there will be rate cuts coming this month. Earnings; NVidia annihilated their earnings expectations and provided some pretty robust forward guidance. That is a continue developing story I will be following. Costco reports after the close. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Bullish/Neutral I am Long on the 6E, so I do have some optimism =) Safe trading! Remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends maxed to the downside nowSo I did jump into a brief short and got my weekly goal from 4160 to about 4148. Once we hit there we settled in with a 6hr downtrend, which is a higher low and is now also violated. While I feel that this downward momentum is long overdue and should continue, my trading strategy is to trade on trends and currently every single trend is violated except the 30m and 1hr, and those are considerably oversold if they were the funnels to take us lower. I still think on a medium term we are headed to 4000 at least, trends will dictate we have at least a brief rally here before we can head lower. So with my macroeconomic assessment in conflict with my trading strategy, I think I will stay out for the moment. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4204 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4192 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4180 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4180 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4159 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4144 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; I mean, it is probably a decent bet to go long here at 4138, although not enough for me to get a warm and fuzzy over it. I think a meltdown is just long overdue and could come in with a vengeance. The Short Position; I'd like to see a technical bounce to get a 30m uptrend at least as a short position. Not sure that will happen, but if it does, I plan to be ready. Economic Data; Yellen is speaking this morning, then FOMC Minutes and EBC Legarde later this afternoon. All could be market movers. Overall, my sentiment today (From 4135) is; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Bullish/Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral/Bullish Safe trading, and as always, remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
Likely some sideways movement before the next real moveSo the 30m and 1hr were able to squeak out some signs to head lower, and because of that I jumped in Short at 4204. I'm certainly not completely sold we are dumping anymore since we broke the trends that were shifting us to the downside. I will hold this short until the 2hr signals a downtrend which is without a doubt going to be a higher low and then I will proceed with caution and potentially even cash out. At this point I am cautiously bullish in the medium term outlook, but the sell signal on Trend Momentum on the Weekly timeframe during upward movement has me very skittish. As I said in the video, this will be the first sell signal during the ESM contract since March, and the ESM contract expires here in just a few weeks and there tends to be a major move or reversal during these times, or at least a huge uptick in volume which we have been lacking this whole contract like I haven't seen since the end of 2021. Anyways, trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4204 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4192 Downtrend (5/23/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4164 Uptrend (5/17/2023) Lower High 3Hr - 4172 Uptrend (5/17/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4124 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4180 Uptrend (5/18/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; Any movement back above 4204 could be met with additional follow through since the 30m was a flat trend basically. Also, if we get lower to a 2hr, I would expect it to try and find some buy the dip mentality. The Short Position; A return to 4204 may just be another entry to the down, I would really watch momentum (I would expect it to push higher if it goes up there rather than just touch and come back down, honestly). Additionally, a late entry point might be a strong surge below 4192, at least down to the 2hr downtrend mark which I'd assume will be somewhere along 4180ish. Economic Data; Nothing major today. FOMC minutes tomorrow, so maybe some pretrading depending on what is expected from that report. Earnings; Intuit and Lowes is today. So retail and tech. Shouldn't resonate through the market though as we are on the tail end of Earnings season. My sentiment (from 4194) is; Shorter Term - Bearish/Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Bullish Long Term - Neutral/Bullish My biggest pause on just believe we will go higher is dealing with this weekly momentum trend sell signal. Maybe we will be flat for a couple weeks that will give me some time away from that signal or even show a reverse and buy signal instead. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader