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Trends could allow some further upward movementI'm really mixed going into today. I'm going to be a bit bullish, only because I think there is a lot of upward trend movement. However, we are maxed out on trends yet again here, so I am not sure we make it much higher, and I think this rally may be coming to a close, at least briefly. The trends for today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4060 Downtrend (12/01/2022) Higher Low 1Hr - 4005 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High 2Hr - 4041 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High 3Hr - 4082 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High 4Hr - 4093 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High 6Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (11/30/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Overall, as I say in the video, I'd like to see us shoot up to that 4hr uptrending line, and I would short the market again, especially as it meets a downtrending line of all price action for the year. If we go lower from here, I'll have to decide where I want to enter at if things show significant weakness. Economic Data - We have Unemployment here shortly and payroll numbers. Both should cause some market shock, so sit back and enjoy the ride. My overall sentiment; Shorter Term - Slightly Bullish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Bearish/Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
23
The Legends of the Trends Came True... Yet AgainSo my rally I had called for to fix trends came true, and here we are. Certainly a fantastic funnel on the 12hr trends. While we did dip briefly below the Uptrending Line of the 12hr Downtrends (I know, so confusing), we came back up and are right back, within a few hours, of the 12hr Uptrending, Uptrend Line of the 12hr. This does put us back into the same predicament however, in that we have no trends to take us higher... EXCEPT, as I get into the video, the Weekly Uptrend is likely to hit some time soon. If you want the trends and no video, here they are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4005 Uptrend (12/01/2022) Lower High 1Hr - 4005 Uptrend (12/01/2022) Higher High 2Hr - 4041 Uptrend (12/01/2022) Higher High 3Hr - 4008 Uptrend (12/01/2022) Higher High 4Hr - 4005 Uptrend (12/01/2022) Higher High 6Hr - 3985 Uptrend (12/01/2022) Higher High 12Hr - 3958 Uptrend (12/01/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low So why did we go up yesterday? Honestly, I believe it was because Powell was smiling and laughing while he was talking. No... seriously that is why I think there was such a positive reaction. Aside from the fact that trends needed to correct themselves, that was the only difference between what he has been saying that took us lower, and what he said yesterday. He also said pretty much the same thing that the other FOMC Members had said this past week. Obviously my frustration with the market ended, although threading that upward movement was frustrating to no end. I did cash out from 3943 to 4043 for $5000, and did not take things all the way up here to the top for another $2000-$2500, but I'm not upset about that. I currently have a short position at 4091, with a profit stop set, and will not be upset if it hits and we go higher. As I said in the video though, anything above that 4hr/6hr line, to me, is going to be a shorting opportunity. As for today... Economic Data; The big one to watch is PCE. In my opinion, not so much that it shows inflation is coming down, as we have that well priced into the market twice over, but more because if it shows inflation isn't coming down, it would cause a downward trigger. There is also some Jobs data coming out, with the Continuing Jobless Claims and Challenger Job Cuts. We want both to show there are more people out of work. Then lastly, I think I forgot to mention, but there is Manufacturing ISM. Remember, anything above 50 shows growth, and under 50 shows a contraction. I would THINK the market wants to see a contraction to show a slowing economy. So yeah, big day for today. I'm not sure we head south just yet, but I think any upward movement will be reversed back down to around 4050-4070ish, give or take, until something triggers prices to really stumble and we have a real lower leg here to take us much lower than where we just were. My sentiment into today is as follows; Shorter Term - Neutral/Bearish Short Term - Neutral/Bearish Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Neutral/Bearish As always, safe trading and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
2
Trends continue to call for Upward movementSo I had missed the 12hr had a downtrend, which is a lower high. Once I recognized that, I've gone long once again at about 3965. There is the potential that we head lower to a Daily Downtrend signal, although... if we do, then we would have no trends to take us lower. I do find it fairly bizarre that the 30m managed to counter every lower high trend and get us to the 12hr downtrend. The trends overall are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3994 Downtrend (11/28/2022) Lower Low 1Hr - 4031 Downtrend (11/25/2022) Higher Low 2Hr - 4016 Downtrend (11/27/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 4008 Downtrend (11/27/2022) Higher Low 4Hr - 4005 Downtrend (11/27/2022) Higher Low 6Hr - 3985 Downtrend (11/28/2022) Higher Low 12Hr - 3958 Downtrend (11/29/2022) Higher Low Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low We have serious Economic Data which I go over in the video, but ultimately keep an eye on the job data that comes out today, the GDP, and then prepare for Jerome Powell to speak later on. Overall, my sentiment is still as follows; Shorter Term - Bullish Short Term - Bullish Medium Term - Bullish/Neutral Long Term - Neutral/Bearish Remember your risk management and trade safely!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
6
30m vs higher timeframe TrendsWe did run down along the 30m downtrending line yesterday without ever even creating a funnel. Definitely a bit surprised given that there wasn't anything major occurring yesterday. Clearly the FOMC speakers must have felt like giving their personal guidance to the market even though the Fed as a whole continues to lack any clear guidance as an entity. This has bugged me a lot this year that individual members are allowed to provide their own personal insight while the actual organization as a whole appears to run like the feces hitting the oscillator. Anyways, if you don't want the trends here they are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3994 Downtrend (11/28/2022) Lower Low 1Hr - 4031 Downtrend (11/25/2022) Higher Low 2Hr - 4016 Downtrend (11/27/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 4008 Downtrend (11/27/2022) Higher Low 4Hr - 4005 Downtrend (11/27/2022) Higher Low 6Hr - 3935 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High 12Hr - 3980 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low You can see we are in the exact same trends as yesterday. I managed to bail on my trade overnight for a whopping $50, but I've again just jumped back into a long at 3970, especially with that major downward move being on low volume. Ultimately I believe we run higher and I think we break the highs of 4049 in another leg up before we lose this rally and get to find our bottom. No major Economic Data today, and this time no FOMC speakers I saw. Tomorrow is a big day though. My sentiment remains; Shorter Term - Bullish Short Term - Bullish Medium Term - Bullish/Neutral Long Term - Neutral/Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
5
Trends mostly point up, but waiting for the rally to resumeGreetings and welcome back after Thanksgiving to another edition of Trends in the market. If you don't want to watch the video, here are the trends; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3994 Downtrend (11/28/2022) Lower Low 1Hr - 4031 Downtrend (11/25/2022) Higher Low 2Hr - 4016 Downtrend (11/27/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 4008 Downtrend (11/27/2022) Higher Low 4Hr - 4005 Downtrend (11/27/2022) Higher Low 6Hr - 3935 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High 12Hr - 3980 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low If you do watch the video, you will see that we are basically oversold on the 1hr, 2hr, 3hr, and 4hr trends, and oversold on them while they are uptrending. That being said, the 30m is in a downtrend at the moment and attempting to create a funnel. So, I will want to see us get back into the rallying trend funnels before I go long, or see that the 30m creates a top for the downtrending funnel before I go short. Basically, patience will be key for me. On the Economic Data; Nothing major today other than FOMC members who love to hear themselves speak in spite of a clear lack of communicated direction by the Fed. I mention the more important data to watch later this week in the video. Earnings; Intuit and Salesforce, otherwise Earnings season is over, may stop mentioning it until next Earnings Season. Geopolitical; One thing I forgot to mention, there are protests in China over the Zero COVID. Allegedly that is bringing the market down, but I call BS, because if the protests are successful in causing the government to look at Zero Covid, it should bring a positive motion into the market. Overall my sentiment is as follows; Shorter Term - Bullish/Neutral Short Term - Bullish/Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral/Bearish I think we could find our way up to at least 4100 before we make a sustained swing downward, but I'll let the trends continue to guide me. I think any movement below 4000 will swing back up to 4000 for now, at least until I see the data on Wednesday. As always, safe trading and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
GBPAUD I Where to Buy this Week!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **GBPAUD - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
14
Trends beginning to show possible downside; Enjoy HolidaySo, again, my daughter graduates military bootcamp Wednesday, so I'll be traveling and enjoying Thanksgiving with the family this week. This will be my only analysis this week. As I said in the video, be prepared for low volume movement this week, as a large portion of traders in the US will be stepping away from the market. As for the analysis today, the 30m and 1hr are signaling we can head lower, the 2hr is dabbling with the idea, and the 4hr has lost the support of a lower high that we would have liked to see hold if we are going higher. Therefore, at this point in time, I don't see that us heading any higher this week other than maybe around the opening today, highest of 4000, but the low range could be down where we get a 6hr and 2hr downtrend, both of which will likely be close to that lower low Daily downtrend line. If you just want the trends, here they are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3958 Downtrend (11/18/2022) Lower Low 1Hr - 3950 Downtrend (11/18/2022) Lower Low 2Hr - 3991 Uptrend (11/18/2022) Higher High 3Hr - 3946 Downtrend (11/17/2022) Higher Low 4Hr - 3915 Downtrend (11/17/2022) Higher Low 6Hr - 3935 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High 12Hr - 3980 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Economic Data; There is basically only any relevant data on Wednesday, although FOMC members are still going around rambling and giving inconsistent messages. Earnings; Few earnings, and of those even fewer that are relevant in weight all week. Earnings season is basically over. My sentiment for today is; Shorter Term - Bullish/Neutral Short Term - Neutral/Bearish Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Neutral/ with a hint Bearish coming back Safe trading, remember your risk management plan, and Happy Thanksgiving. Enjoy the time with your family.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends Suggest PatienceSo trends definitely proved to be spot on yesterday after forcing us to correct the excessively high movement. This does gives some indication that we could begin to head higher and hold those higher movements this time instead of failing because of a lack of trends. We have a 30m and 1hr uptrend, but that still leaves room for us to hit a 2hr/3hr/4hr uptrend before we run out of trends to carry us higher. I have some slight concern that the 30m had begun to form a downtrend before we went much lower, and that it is still a downtrending funnel that we've left behind. Being that the market doesn't have fresh anything to price in today, not even Earnings, I don't know why we would leave the 30m trend behind in such a way, other than the other trends needed to do some correction. If you just want the trends, they are below; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3961 Uptrend (11/17/2022) Lower High 1Hr - 3981 Uptrend (11/18/2022) Higher High 2Hr - 3961 Downtrend (11/17/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 3946 Downtrend (11/17/2022) Higher Low 4Hr - 3915 Downtrend (11/17/2022) Higher Low 6Hr - 3935 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High 12Hr - 3980 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low You can see that both the 30m and 1hr switch trend direction at almost the exact same price point they had gone into the reverse in... At the start of yesterday, the trends were as such; 30m - 3961 Downtrend (11/17/2022) Lower Low 1Hr - 3979 Downtrend (11/15/2022) Higher Low So yeah, there is no Earnings to report, and some Housing info but otherwise not much Economic Data either. So likely to be a more technical trading day. My sentiment for today; Shorter Term - I'm a bit mixed here, I think we could go a bit higher than 3980 where we are, but I'm not sure we go too much higher before having a quick dip at least to around 3960ish. Short Term - Bullish/Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Bullish Long Term - I'm very mixed on this... I'm just going Neutral at the moment. Lots of trends taking us upward, but the Daily is still in a downtrend funnel, even if we are operating outside of it. Safe trading and remember your risk management plan
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
EURCAD I Best place for a LONG!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **EURCAD - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
16
The Prophecy of the Trends has Come to PassI know, I know, I'm REALLY late today, haha. So I finally got to capitalize off my trade. Not only did I not have to take a loss, but I cashed it out at $1150. I then went back to bed... because in spite of the fact I'm old enough that all my children are adults... I stayed up all night playing the new Warzone 2 with my people, and it felt just like the old days. Lots of fun. Anywaaaays... if you don't want to watch the video (I think I might have rambled more than usual cause I'm only on my first cup of coffee), here are the trends; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3961 Downtrend (11/17/2022) Lower Low 1Hr - 3979 Downtrend (11/15/2022) Higher Low 2Hr - 3961 Downtrend (11/17/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 3946 Downtrend (11/17/2022) Higher Low 4Hr - 3915 Downtrend (11/17/2022) Higher Low 6Hr - 3935 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High 12Hr - 3980 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Ultimately, we have lots of lower highs, and as I explain in the video, we've hit around that lower low downtrend Daily line roughly at the same point as a 4hr higher low, and I think we don't go much further down than here. I don't know that things will rally quite yet, as we do have a 30m downtrend funnel of lower highs and lower lows to deal with, but I think this may be the low point. I am going to take a breather from the market after being able to get out of that negative trade, even though I made no where near the money I should have this week, as I would have definitely done 4 good shorts on the market with things above that 12hr line (In fact this current trade would have been worth $6000). In terms of Earnings; Nothing major today, and I think that this week is about the end of the major earnings season. In terms of Economic Data; Continuing Jobless Claims were higher, but initial jobless claims were lower. Also the Philly Manufacturing Index was much lower. However, none of that really seemed to move any sentiment when it came out in the market, because I believe both are already priced in. My Sentiment for Today... from the point of 3915-3920 where we are now, is as follows; Shorter Term - Neutral/Bullish Short Term - Neutral/Bullish Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral Ultimately, if I decided to trade today, I'd probably look for longs, but I don't know I'd hold them longer than a 30m uptrend or so. As always, safe trading and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
Trends show gradual incline but where is the bottom?So yet again things attempted to go into the no trend zone and failed. Ultimately, while we seem to be sneaking higher, I still think this is the top of the rally spectrum at the moment, and I don't believe in a full rally until I see a defined bottom. On the short term, we see the 30m creating a bottom and a top and taking us higher, however, the 30m is not a long standing trend, and so I'm still curious to see where we go with our longer trends. If you just want the trends and no video, here ya go; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3978 Downtrend (11/15/2022) Higher Low 1Hr - 3979 Downtrend (11/15/2022) Higher Low 2Hr - 3882 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High 3Hr - 3912 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High 4Hr - 3882 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High 6Hr - 3935 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High 12Hr - 3980 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low While the movement has been up, I still see a softening in our upward movement, and think it is a matter of time before we show some downtrends on the longer timeframes, even if they are higher lows. In terms of Economic Data; We have Retail Sales today. Will likely cause some movement in the market. Also FOMC Waller speaks at 14:35 EST. Waller is the most Hawkish of all the FOMC members (the very opposite of Brainard). Earnings; We have Lowes this morning, and then Cisco and NVidia after market close. All 3 should cause some movement in the markets. Geopolitical Tensions; With the missile hit in Poland, I'd keep an eye on how that all plays out. My Sentiment going into today; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral with a slight bearish bias (I want to see longer term trends come into play). Medium Term - Neutral/Bullish Long Term - Neutral...... just neutral for now. I'm going to mark this as "Short" today, only because I just can't shake that we need to bring in a higher timeframe trend into the mix before we can go higher. As always, safe trading and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
2
Price in the "No Trend Zone" are failing, but 30m shows more upAs I state in the video, all movements into the no trend zone have reversed, however we are getting higher lows and higher highs on the 30m trend. I still don't have a lot of faith that the 30m trend can take us upward by itself, however I may eventually have to accept that we aren't coming back down to 3930 or below. If you just want the trends, here are they; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4006 Uptrend (11/15/2022) Higher High 1Hr - 3882 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High 2Hr - 3882 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High 3Hr - 3912 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High 4Hr - 3882 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High 6Hr - 3935 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High 12Hr - 3980 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low I definitely jumped into my trade early, and should have waited patiently to begin shorting anything above the 12hr trend line. That would have given me at least 2 if not 3 good trades. That being said, as I mention in the video, I've been digging into the details of this rally, and it doesn't appear to be on stable ground other than a FOMO buy in. Not saying we are heading back down to test lows, just saying I don't know about the foundation of this rally at this point. In terms of Earnings; Walmart and Home Depot are today. I'll let you know later on when I check them, as they will also directly affect Target and Lowes. Economic Info; PPI comes out today. I am interested in seeing if there is a major increase in the costs of transporting goods from fuel usage. That comes out at 8:30am EST. My current sentiment is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - I am really undecided here.... I am going to just say Neutral I'm listed today as "Short" because we are ALREADY 1% higher on the day, and I think we finish lower than this, even if it is a positive gain overall. As always, safe trading and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
2
NZDCAD Another Potential Falling Trade SetupI'd like to shout out Calvin, @akinijoma who has entered a fantastic trade where he can potentially gain 11X more than what he is risking on NZDCAD sell. My prayers is the trade goes your way. It's crossing all T's and dotting all of the I's. Price is in a downtrend, it's retraced back to your estimation zone(courtesy of TMP strategy) and has trigger your pending sell order. Stay patient in the trade. You have your stop loss and take profit set. Your risk to reward is very favorable. I'm excited to see how this plays out. Great setup idea.😁😊😌 For my fellow traders, if you enjoy these setups, likes, comments, and follows are appreciated😀 And DONATIONS through TradingView coins help my cause of increasing the trade ideas put here for free for aspiring traders such as yourself. You're appreciated, -Shaquan
by ShaquanLopez
2
Trends continuing to hold upward, but on shaky groundSo we have fallen below the 30m downtrend/uptrending line. That puts the spotlight on if we have a 1hr downtrend next, or if we manage to resume above the 30m and see if the 30m can take us higher. If you aren't interested in the video, here are the trends; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3959 Downtrend (11/11/2022) Lower High 1Hr - 3882 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High 2Hr - 3882 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High 3Hr - 3912 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High 4Hr - 3882 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High 6Hr - 3935 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High 12Hr - 3980 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low While it gives a more neutral stance going into today, I am seeing an overall bearish sentiment begin to develop into todays market, at least at this point before the open. A majority of short coverings and a gap open lower that hasn't made the way back to zero both seem to appear we could have more downside to today. I am expecting us currently to run down and potentially hit the cluster of uptrending lines that is beneath us. While I don't have it drawn on this, the 3hr uptrend current is acting as a support uptrend line below us, if it continues I may bring it over from my trading chart to this one. Earnings; No major earnings today, but we do have some big ones this week. Economic Data; Consumer Inflation Expectations and even potentially the Dallas PCE. Not sure they will be major but those are what I'm watching. Also, Fed Brainard speaks today, the most Dovish voting member of the FOMC, so I'll be watching to see if that causes a brief rally. My sentiment going into today; Shorter Term - Neutral/Bearish Short Term - Neutral/Bearish Medium Term - Bullish Long Term - Neutral/Bearish Safe trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends are maxed up to the Upside, Expect some swing back downAs I finished with yesterday, now that the 12hr has struck, we cannot develop any further uptrend marks above us to take us higher. That is why, I expect at LEAST a 30m downtrend in the very near future. Once we get that, we will have to see if the 30m wants to run away with the market. If you don't want to watch the video, here are the trends; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3882 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High 1Hr - 3882 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High 2Hr - 3882 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High 3Hr - 3912 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High 4Hr - 3882 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High 6Hr - 3935 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High 12Hr - 3980 Uptrend (11/10/2022) Higher High Daily - 3923 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low As you can see by that, everything except the Weekly is now in an uptrend. Additionally, everything below the Daily is now in a higher high. While I do believe this could be the signal and end of the bear market, in the shorter term I'd expect from movement back down here to gather trends to guide us upward if that is going to happen. So my expectation is we will see a 30m downtrend this morning. Once that happens, can we have a runaway market on the 30m? Maybe. We will see how things develop at that point. Additionally, nearly every popular technical indicator is in an overbought stage, and some, immensely so. However, that is to be expected after a 5.5% day. Speaking of which, the only other 2 days in the history of the market to have over 200-point rallies in a single day, one was very whipsaw and one gave everything back. So not great guidance there. In terms of Earnings, there are none today. In terms of Economic Data - We have some Michigan expectation data coming out. That is at 10am EST, so after the market opens. Not sure it will rock the market, especially as everyone talks about yesterday's power move. My sentiment going into today; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish/Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Neutral/Bullish Safe trading, remember your risk management plan
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
CPI and Jobless Data to Dominate the Market TodayHere I thought I'd have a short video, but alas, it was not, haha. Anyways, enjoy the video to see where trends are, what likely drove us down yesterday, and some conversation on how this CPI print could cause a huge price movement, or won't even matter in the end. If you just want the trends, here they are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3789 Downtrend (11/08/2022) Higher Low 1Hr - 3800 Downtrend (11/09/2022) Lower Low 2Hr - 3762 Downtrend (11/09/2022) Lower Low 3Hr - 3755 Downtrend (11/09/2022) Lower Low 4Hr - 3755 Downtrend (11/09/2022) Lower Low 6Hr - 3760 Downtrend (10/17/2022) Higher Low 12Hr - 3726 Downtrend (11/04/2022) Higher Low Daily - 3923 Up (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low While the trends are interesting and actually show we could go up in our next movement, at least briefly, before continuing back down the forming downtrend we have going on, the reality is that the Economic Data of today will likely send this market spiraling somewhere and crush the trends that are forming. All eyes are on the CPI Data and Jobless Claims, due out at 08:30am EST. If headline CPI comes in low or sub 7%, prepare for a market surge. If it comes in high 8% or above, brace for a likely plummet. Additionally, if Core CPI comes at or just below around 1%, we are going to tumble... if it comes in closer to .2 or .3%, I expect a rally. If it comes in as expected, I expect a lot of shaking, and then a move upward towards 3800. Jobless claims I am not sure will show much. While we've had some recent layoff news, I don't think it will make this report. My bias for today is; Shorter Term - Wherever CPI takes us Short Term - Wherever CPI takes us Medium Term - Neutral/Bullish Long Term - Bearish Safe Trading, and remember your risk management plan
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
4
Trends appearing very neutral going into the CPI data tomorrowI hate to not put a direction for the market, however, I am very, very neutral today. Price action could likely just be within about 3800-3840 range, MAYBE up to 3860, but I'm not even confident in that. If you don't want to watch the video, here are the trends; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3789 Uptrend (11/07/2022) Higher High 1Hr - 3772 Uptrend (11/04/2022) Lower High 2Hr - 3799 Uptrend (11/07/2022) Lower High 3Hr - 3816 Uptrend (11/07/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 3827 Uptrend (11/02/2022) Higher High 6Hr - 3760 Downtrend (10/17/2022) Higher Low 12Hr - 3726 Downtrend (11/04/2022) Higher Low Daily - 3923 Up (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Ultimately I have continued concerns that the 30m/4hr uptrends are in conflict with the 1hr/2hr/3hr downtrends. This is what caused me to be skittish yesterday and end up taking minimal gain instead of thousands in profit yesterday. I currently hold a short at 3855, but if we get back above the 4hr line or run down to 3800 I may just cash that out. Either way, I feel that we are again at a pinnacle point of patience. The overall trends look to want to take us lower based on the Daily, but the Weekly likely wants to have an uptrend even if it will be a lower high. All this will likely be determined by the CPI data. In terms of Earnings; Basically nothing noteworthy In Terms of Economic Data; Basically nothing noteworthy. I explain how the market may find some unfavorable conditions for energy stocks if the Democrats keep power in the House, but I think that is a bit too long term for the markets to care at the moment, especially with more important CPI data coming in tomorrow. Overall, I expect a fairly calm day, with us perhaps following up the 4hr uptrend line a little bit and close around 3840ish. Therefore, my sentiment is thus; Shorter Term - Neutral... Very Neutral Short Term - Neutral with a hint of Bullish Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Bearish I expect CPI to end up taking us lower, however, based on the historical action of the market, it may not happen when the CPI data comes out, and prepare for an unpredictable gamble of a swing tomorrow when that hits. Safe Trading, and Remember your risk management plan. I'm tossing this as Long for the day, only because I think by the close we might be up like... 5-10 points at best.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
Does the Rally Fizzle before Thursday? Trends for 11/8/2022To answer today's question... yes, I think this rally could make it another 10-20 points higher before it fizzles out. In scrolling through the trends, I found that the 15m was a well-established funnel we were using Monday and Tuesday. However, today it appears that the direction of the uptrend/uptrending line is beginning to flatten. As we approach the CPI data, patience will be key again in this market. My math would say that when that CPI data comes out, based on where we are in the approach, that we end up heading lower, however, as I've said many times nothing annihilates a technical analysis with any indicator like an emotional trading day. If the CPI data sends us higher, I believe it will be shortly after that we will end up heading down anyways, though how far down is up to debate. If you just want the trends, as always, here they are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3789 Uptrend (11/07/2022) Higher High 1Hr - 3772 Uptrend (11/04/2022) Lower High 2Hr - 3799 Uptrend (11/07/2022) Lower High 3Hr - 3816 Uptrend (11/07/2022) Lower Low 4Hr - 3843 Downtrend (11/02/2022) Higher Low 6Hr - 3760 Downtrend (10/17/2022) Higher Low 12Hr - 3779 Uptrend (10/23/2022) Lower High Daily - 3923 Up (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Ultimately there is still a conflict between the 30m/4hr uptrending line fighting against the 1hr/2hr/3hr downtrending line. So in following trends we have little direction at least in terms of a move over the next couple of days. Earnings; Disney is today, and some gas company that goes by Oxy. Otherwise seems mostly minor reports. Economic Data; Not much today. Redbook could send some life into the market, but don't count on it. All eyes will be on who wins the Congress as the only major thing today, and if you know how US elections go, just because it is election day doesn't mean anyone will actually be elected as we begin to argue over the results. My sentiment for now; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral/Bullish Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Bearish/ Neutral I'm marking this idea as long, as I feel I have to commit to my idea and I think we end up positive by the end of the day, though perhaps not by much. I personally don't like it when an idea doesn't commit to any actual direction and the message someone gives is, "Well we could go lower, or we could go higher." I mean... no sh%t lol.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
Trends in Conflict; Potential for a calming day in the marketsWith few Earnings and very little economic data, I don't see today flying one way or another. The only triggering item in the next 24 hours is the midterm elections. Historically, markets go higher at the close of an election, regardless of outcome. If you don't want to watch the video, the trends are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3789 Uptrend (11/07/2022) Higher High 1Hr - 3772 Uptrend (11/04/2022) Lower High 2Hr - 3799 Uptrend (11/07/2022) Lower High 3Hr - 3843 Downtrend (11/02/2022) Higher Low 4Hr - 3843 Downtrend (11/02/2022) Higher Low 6Hr - 3760 Downtrend (10/17/2022) Higher Low 12Hr - 3779 Uptrend (10/23/2022) Lower High Daily - 3923 Up (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low As you can see, the 30m if wanting to show an upward funnel, but it is working against the 1hr that hit on Friday, and the 2hr that just hit this morning as well. The 2hr would be a fresh lower funnel. We are currently in the Apex of the 30m uptrend vs the 2hr downtrend. I think we will see a calm day of trading, potentially getting back to around 0% on the day overall. Price action could likely be in between that gap that we opened with and our current price high just above 3800. There aren't many Earnings for today and as I said, very little economic data. This whole week is basically like this, with the main movement not coming until Thursday when CPI comes out. That data will likely be the catalyst of us going lower this year, or of sustaining around 3900 until the end of the year. So Brace Yourself, Inflation Data is Coming. My sentiment today; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral / Hint of Bullish Medium Term - Neutral / Bullish (I think we hit around 3850 before that CPI data comes in) As always, trade safely and remember your risk management plan Long Term - Bearish / Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
GBPCHF I Bullish trend opportunityWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **GBPCHF - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
9
Trends into 11/4/2022... and is Employment vs WagesSo the question of the day is, are wages more important than employment information. I believe the answer to this will be yes. Ultimately if wages come down, and bring inflation down with it, than the Fed will likely back off of rate hikes and let things settle down overall. We will find out if they are in conflict at 8:30am EST, or if they are running together in one direction or the other. I suspect wage information may come in lower than the last reading, based on the wage information we got last Friday. It was that same information that sent the market skyrocketing even with PCE coming in sticky and high. As for trends, if you don't want to watch the video, here are the trends; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3746 Uptrend (11/04/2022) Lower High 1Hr - 3859 Downtrend (11/01/2022) Higher Low 2Hr - 3859 Downtrend (11/01/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 3843 Downtrend (11/02/2022) Higher Low 4Hr - 3843 Downtrend (11/02/2022) Higher Low 6Hr - 3760 Downtrend (10/17/2022) Higher Low 12Hr - 3779 Uptrend (10/23/2022) Lower High Daily - 3923 Up (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low We had the 30m uptrend, which signaled fairly low because of how flat we came out of that sell off from Wednesday. While we did initially bounce lower off it, we came back up and pushed past the where the 30m lower high was. In doing so, we've also pushed up past the 6 hour higher low downtrend line, and additionally we have moved back into the main funnel of the lows of the rally we've had. That rally line does NOT include the major dip into 3500, but includes all the other lows we've bounced off of since. I'd like to see us continue to gather some trends, such as a lower high 1hr, lower high 2hr, and potentially even a lower high 3hr. If the 4hr hits though, it'll be a higher high, because of how far back the 4hr was left previously. Once that hits, I'll be cautious on seeing if the 4hr continues to carry us upward, or if we lose steam. As I said in the video, I snagged a long position at 3716 just after the market opened back up at 18:00 EST yesterday. My reasoning was in that I felt we were still setup for a short term bullish run, and that the market would pump up waiting for Unemployment and Wage data today. While I did have to sit up past midnight to watch this trade to make sure it couldn't fall backwards on me, it has paid off thus far, and will allow me to hold this trade going into the main data today. Economic Data; Speaking of that data, Unemployment comes out at 8:30am EST. If this comes in at expected levels or even higher, expect a market rally. However, lots of wage data also comes in. I think this may take center stage of Unemployment, and I expect it to show wages are slowing based on the wage data we got last Friday. If wage data comes in at expectations or even lower, expect a market rally. If they come in differently, I expect Wage data to trump the Unemployment data based on the market reaction of last Friday. Earnings; Mostly just Berkshire Hathaway I mentioned yesterday. It doesn't have when it was releasing their earnings, so I'll go hunt it down after posting this and update. I don't do updates on Earnings on other days when there are like 40 companies to watch by the way. Just too much to go filter through. My overall sentiment is the same as yesterday; Shorter Term (next couple hours) - Bullish Short Term (end of today) - Bullish Medium Term (over the next week) - Bullish /Neutral Long Term (over the next month) - Neutral/ Bearish As always, safe trading and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
Can we recover from the irresponsible messaging from the FOMC?The answer to today's question is... I believe we can. Once this excessive emotional sell off cools for a minute, I think cooler heads can prevail. I find it a bit ironic that of all Powell's messages, he had more dovish talk in this one and yet everyone only saw hawkish, when in the past he has been in my opinion very hawkish and people took the microscopic dovish words that they could. However, I go on a tirade about how irresponsible his messaging was yesterday with absolute mixed signals in his speech vs written guidance. Anyways, as I said in my video, I took a loss on my trade last night of about $500. I went in again during this video at 3738, as I think we have a bit of a bounce back now today. If you aren't interested in watching the video the trends are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3824 Downtrend (11/02/2022) Lower Low 1Hr - 3859 Downtrend (11/01/2022) Higher Low 2Hr - 3859 Downtrend (11/01/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 3843 Downtrend (11/02/2022) Higher Low 4Hr - 3843 Downtrend (11/02/2022) Higher Low 6Hr - 3760 Downtrend (10/17/2022) Higher Low 12Hr - 3779 Uptrend (10/23/2022) Lower High Daily - 3923 Up (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low As you can see, many of our trends past the 30m are higher lows, and calling for the market to come back up briefly to see where we head next. The 6hr was fascinating in that it signaled a downtrend almost exactly at where it had signaled an uptrend, allowing the possibility that the resistance of the trend line can now become the support, something that you see a lot in trends. In terms of economic data today; It will all be about the jobs reports coming out here in 30 minutes. Based on some other recent data, I believe we may see an increase in jobless claims, but time will tell. As far as Earnings; We have 150 companies left to report earnings, with a slew of medium sized companies coming in today. It is honestly too many for me to report on, but most companies have actually been beating expectations overall (a lowered expectation, but none the less). I know Starbucks is likely to post record profits and sales AMC. Overall, with the election coming to a close, people trading over emotionally, and earnings season still here, I see us rallying back up to meet some of these trends we left behind. I'd expect a 30m uptrend without a doubt, and I think we will most likely see a 1hr and 2hr uptrend mark before we head lower at least. I've noticed that the issue in my trading is that my shorter term sentiment tends to be accurate, but my short term sentiment (where I think we will get at the end of the day) is coming in mid day and then my medium term sentiment (where I think we get by the end of the week) is coming in by the close. Those sentiments today are; Shorter Term - Bullish Short Term - Bullish Medium Term - Bullish/Neutral Long Term - Neutral/Bearish As always, remember your risk management plan and trade safely.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
Does any technical analysis matter on Fed Day?To answer to today's question, is probably not. In spite of that, I think the longer looking picture is that we head down. However, we have several trends that are showing a higher low (30m, 1h, 2h, 3h) so before we head down I'd like to see one of them turn into a downtrend shape. If you remember, we got up here on the back up the 30m trend giving us a nice funnel to follow. As bizarre as it was for the 30m to run off with the market by itself, it still gave some shape for the up. If you want the trends and don't want to watch the video, they are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3900 Downtrend (11/01/2022) Higher Low 1Hr - 3859 Downtrend (11/01/2022) Higher Low 2Hr - 3859 Downtrend (11/01/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 3893 Uptrend (10/28/2022) Higher High 4Hr - 3680 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 3759 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Higher High 12Hr - 3779 Uptrend (10/23/2022) Lower High Daily - 3923 Up (10/28/2022) Lower High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low As you can see, we have several Higher Low's that came in yesterday with the drop. I'd expect us to rebound up, at least to catch a 30m uptrend, before we can head lower. But, if that doesn't happen before 14:00 EST, just realize I think any position going into the FOMC decision is a gamble. I think we get 75 basis points. I think the Fed talks about finishing with the 50 it said it would do in December, and I think it talks about potentially letting things simmer to see how the rates are having an affect. That SHOULD send us higher, but when economic data actually has a real impact on the markets, it really tends to be anyone's guess on how the market will react. Remember the surge after a rate hike on Powell's speech 6 months ago, just to have a massive drop off the very next day? Speaking of Economic Data; We also have NonFarm Employment Change and Challenger Job Cuts. I'm gonna have to go seek out the job cuts, although it didn't seem to be too impactful. NonFarm data is in about 30 minutes. Earnings; CVS is this morning, Qualcomm is AMC, otherwise it is just a lot of middle weight companies reporting today. My overall sentiment; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Bullish Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Bearish/Neutral As always, remember your risk management plan
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
2