The 30m Trend finally signals down; Is it the end of the Rally?So after running away with the market for a few days, the 30m uptrend we were running along has finally come to an end. To say yesterday surprised me would be an understatement. I thought for sure with the heaviness of Google and Microsoft in the market that it could take things lower, but in the end, we ended up flying upward yet again. That is Earning season for you, especially in 2022. It has almost become too predictable at this point. In every other movement like we had over the longer trends, I capitalized big on going into the trends to correct themselves, it just didn't work one time.
Overnight I've gone short at 3860. The decision was based on the weakening of the 30m trend, and the fact it was just about where I had taken my loss that I felt comfortable things would "go back to normal" for the moment.
Anyways, only the 30m trend has changed, but if you want the trends and don't want to watch the video, here you go;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3792 Uptrend (10/27/2022) Higher Low
1Hr - 3741 Uptrend (10/20/2022) Higher High
2Hr - 3734 Uptrend (10/21/2022) Higher Low
3Hr - 3682 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High
4Hr - 3680 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High
6Hr - 3759 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Higher High
12Hr - 3779 Downtrend (10/23/2022) Lower High
Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
So, I was thinking of my overall sentiment and where the market is. Interestingly enough, I came to accept that my medium bias came true, it just didn't come the way I expected it. This IS the rally I have been forecasting, I just didn't get on the correct side of it because I was too focused on where we were heading at that moment. If you had asked me where I thought we were going to go when I started to call a possible short term rally, I would have said 3900 (and may have in a previous video, I just can't remember when).
So at this point I think any upward movement is just going to be winding up the rubber band to snap back down. I still think we have to head into the 3800-3700 zone again, even if we've had our bottom in this market, because we will want to pick up a downtrend on the 4hr. I think 3700 is going to be a HUGE key moment, and that any dip below that that picks back up longer trends like the 6hr and 12hr is just going to be looking for a continuation downward.
Again, I am leaving tonight to go backpacking for the weekend, but I would REALLY watch that PCE reaction tomorrow, to see if that puts dying breath into this rally, at least for the moment. I could see us whipsawing over November, to come back up and see 3900 again by the end of December, but I'll adjust that as we go based on trends.
Past trends, today we have...
Earnings;
META gave disappointing results at the close yesterday. I see that bleeding into at least the morning session here. Today though, we've got Apple and Amazon, but not until AMC. Also Intel, T-Mobile, and a slew of other companies. Today may be the biggest Earnings reporting day of the quarter. Expect big movement from it all, volatility galore.
Economic Data;
We've got our usual Jobless Claims today in 30 minutes. That one has been big every week because of how it may impact the FED decision going forward. Also, we have GDP today. I honestly don't know how everyone will want GDP to look. If it is bad, because no one can afford products from America because of our financial tightening causing the dollar to become so strong, will they see that as good? Or if it comes in bad, and signals a global slowdown and global recession in addition to a US one, do we see that as good? Or if it comes in good, does it mean we see that as bad because it means the FED can continue with rate hikes? Guess we will find out!
Anyways, my sentiment has changed, and is as follows;
Shorter Term - Bearish (next couple hours)
Short Term - Neutral (By close of day)
Medium Term - Bearish/Neutral (Next couple weeks)
Long Term - Bearish/Neutral (Next couple months)
As you can see, I've gone full bear mode for the moment until we collect some of these trends, having believed we've already struck most if not all of this rally. Could we see 4000? Maybe... but any upward movement at this point is just a prelude to selling the rip one more time until we collect our trends. There is no reason for us to just suddenly head skyward with all the current issues in the market and how long this downward movement has been.
As always, safe trading. Remember your risk management plan
