Get started

Trendtrading

Trends retain a short term bearish sentiment; long term unclearSo we got a 30m lower high uptrend this morning after getting the higher low 30m yesterday. I went Long at the close of yesterday looking to get back up, and it did overnight but ultimately came back and profit stopped me for only $200 before heading up the rest of the way. With the lower high 30m at 4136 I've gone Short this morning at 4139. I was up fairly early this morning to manage by 6E trade and make sure that the CPI data for the EuroZone didn't ruin my current profit gains on that contract. Overall, I can say it has been uneventful for the most part this morning. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4136 Uptrend (5/17/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/11/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4116 Downtrend (5/12/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4116 Downtrend (5/12/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4124 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; I'll be looking for a down movement to a 4hr downtrend and evaluate how that movement comes in. If it loses steam and is a higher low, I may reverse my direction into a long position. The Short Position; I'm in it. The 30m hit at 4136, so I got in slightly above that, but I'm looking for at least one movement down to 4120s and want to hold until we get a 30m / 4hr downtrend. Economic Data; Nothing major I saw today. Earnings; Target lowered Q2 earnings. Most companies are talking about expectations that Q2 is going to hurt profits. TJX though raised estimates, so that isn't across the board. My sentiment into today is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish/Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Slight Bearish Long Term - Neutral/Slight Bullish Safe trading and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
1
Trends lost some bearish sentiment; Somewhat neutral againSo we ended up with the 30m higher high by 2 points when it came in. That let's the 30m call for correction, the 1hr-3hr calling for a movement down, the 4hr fairly neutral, and the 6hr/12hr calling for movement up. All in all I feel like there is less direction into today than yesterday. I sat out yesterday and may likely sit out again today. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4148 Uptrend (5/16/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/11/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4116 Downtrend (5/12/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4116 Downtrend (5/12/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4124 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; I will wait and see where the 30m trend comes in. If it comes in as a higher low (above 4128) I may go Long there if it appears to be losing momentum. Otherwise I might look to go long if we pass 4150 with determination, as the 30m is calling for upward movement and the 1hr may not be far away and would still come in as a lower high. The Short Position; If we get a 1hr uptrend that is a lower high I may go short at that point if momentum begins to run out. Additionally, if we break down past the 6hr trendline (4136) I may go short and see if I can run it down to at least 4116 and then set a profit stop and see if it will run down further. Economic Data; Retail Sales numbers are in. Basically it seems retail sales popped a tiny bit in April, but less than expected, and year over year we are lower. Earnings; Home Depot had a disappointing Earnings report based on artcles I read on the matter, and that appears to be bleeding over into Lowe's at the moment. It could bleed into other areas of retail as well, such as Walmart, who report later this week. All in all my sentiment is; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Neutral/Bullish Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
Trends bias to the downside, but direction still unclearSo here you are again, sitting at the mid 4150 level. Overall trends have shifted from an upside trend movement at the beginning of April (Yes... we got stuck up here since April) to a downside trend movement now in the Middle of May. I think we are very close to getting a 1hr uptrend, which will be a lower high, and then I'll be looking to see if we reverse from there or try to get a 2hr uptrend. The 2hr uptrend may lower high or a higher high, I think it is too close to call. If we get a higher high, I'd expect some retracement down but once we get that movement down there is the potential it could try to push us higher. However, before we look to move higher, we'd have to shrug off the downtrend momentum that has already formed on the 30m/1hr/2hr/3hr timeframes. We did settle briefly below the 6hr trendline that has acted as a major support, but now we are above that again also, and we have to now battle back down beneath it if we are going to stay down there, and then we still have the 12hr to battle past. On a trend momentum level, we got a sell signal on a WEEKLY time frame with the S&P. Going into today, we don't have that same signal on a daily, just that the uptrend movement has ended, but no sell signal yet. If we get a sideways or lower day, I see that sell signal popping up either tomorrow or Wednesday. So I might be a bit neutral until I see that lower time frame confirmation. With that said, trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4146 Uptrend (5/15/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/11/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4116 Downtrend (5/12/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4116 Downtrend (5/12/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4124 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; I dunno honestly. I don't feel overly comfortable up here at 4150. I could see it bounce off the 6hr again at 4138 (which is also the zero neutral on the day). The Short Position; I may look to go short if we get that 1hr uptrend, perhaps around 4160. I would be cautious with it though, as I could see us ending somewhere around 4150 here and really letting the bearish positioning build back up. Overall, I may not trade today, as I'm not a fan at this point of either position. I have made around $29,000 between this 4100 and 4200 level. Continuing to trade within this zone by just bouncing back and forth is almost TOO predictable at this point, and I feel like I am pushing my luck if I just continue to assume every move up will falter and every dip will be bought up. Economic Data; I don't see some major economic data point that will rock the market this week until perhaps when Powell speaks on Friday. If he comes in with a heavy handed tone it could cause the market to falter and break down. Otherwise, I go over them in the video but I don't see any of the data jolting the data out of this neutral mood. Earnings; I think the Earnings story this week is underrated. Most major retail companies come out today and I think the forward guidance and Earnings reports could show consumer spending habits early on that could begin bleeding into the economy. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/bearish Long Term - Neutral/bullish I will mark this as a Short based on my belief that on a medium term we head lower. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan! On a side note, if you are looking for a nice vacation, I'd suggest looking into Argentina. I feel emotional pain for the country and the economic issues they are going through... however it should also be recognized that due to their economic woes, most countries have a much higher value in currency and a trip to areas even like Patagonia would be relatively cheap in comparison.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Market wants guidance but ignores all data; TrendsSo we've got a lower high 30m, and the downtrend of the 30m would be very easy to push below coming in at anything below 4146. Many of the other trends are likely still poised to bring in lower lows if we have any downward momentum. However, momentum seems to be nonexistent. CPI data has normally been a major mover, but in the end it wasn't. Jobs giving way to potential recession, we still didn't move much. Not sure what the market is looking for, but it just seems we are stuck and no one is confident in a downward move or an uptrend to new highs. Ultimately the longer we stay here, the longer I think trends will keep us stuck here. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4159 Uptrend (5/12/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4166 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4166 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4151 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Lower High 4Hr - 4124 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Long Position; Any movement below that 6hr trendline has shown to be a strong level of support and come back up. That level today is around 4135. The Short Position; Up here. I haven't gone short yet, but the level around 4159 based on the 30m would say that is the entry point to take us lower. Economic Data; Nothing major. Michigan inflation and consumer data. Earnings; No earnings today Ultimately... I might jump in if the market turns negative and carry it over the $300 I need and just cash out this week. That will give me my $2500 quota for the S&P. I have the bonus of money made on the 6E to support if I decide to just come up short this week. It really comes in to the major tech stocks and the Nasdaq coming off making new highs. We are one "Sell the Rip" away from a leg down. My sentiment into today (from 4159) Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/ Slight Bearish Long Term - Neutral/Slight Bullish
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
2
Trends opening up to the down; Market still appears deadSo I'm glad I didn't jump into 4160 as a short near the end of yesterday, as it gave me the chance to get in short at 4167 this morning. We've gotten a lower high and a higher low (just hit) for the 30m trend. That leaves me with some skeptic optimism that the market will continue to fall (is optimism the right word?) and we can discount the 30m and look for the 1hr downtrend. We actually HAD the 1hr, 2hr, 3hr, 4hr downtrends all coming in yesterday as lower lows, and then we started the rebound and lost all of them but the 30m. All in all, I still think the trends are showing a lack in upward movement, and as I watch this playout it continues to appear to be a head and shoulder formation in price action. The trends into today are (I updated the 30m since the video); Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4146 Downtrend (5/11/2023) higher Low 1Hr - 4166 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4166 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4151 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Lower High 4Hr - 4124 Uptrend (5/10/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; We've had issues getting below the 6hr higher low ascending trendline. We will meet this line again around 4133. Additionally, we've get to break down below the newly minted 30m higher low downtrend of 4146, and I'd then also be looking to make sure that when the 1hr and on hit a downtrend, that they are lower lows. In order to get much lower, we will need to violate the 6hr and 12hr trendlines so there is that also. The Short Position; I'm in it. I already felt confident about 4160 yesterday, but didn't want to hold the trade overnight. This morning, an even better position at 4167 presented itself with a lower high 30m entry point. If somehow I get stopped out because we head back up, I'd be looking for another movement down below the current 30m ascending bar causing a support level, or the 3hr descending line is still around 4150 and we have failed to remain above that trendline as well. Economic Data; Jobs and PPI data today. I won't speculate how it will be traded though, except if PPI surprises to the upside. Earnings; No major earnings today. Disney was yesterday as the big mover for the week. They missed earnings, that could bleed into today. My sentiment today; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish/Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral/Bullish
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
4
Complete Lack of Volume & trends poised for anywhere; Patience!So I mention in the video, but make sure to realize how insanely low the volume has been the last two days. Sub 1 million contract days are very, very rare. 2 in a row... well the last time I could find we had multiple was the week right after Christmas of 2021, just before we started the 2022 sell off. Now I'm not saying we are heading to a freefall again, I'm just saying that with no volume and no movement, this is a time for caution. We had a 2 hour downtrend come in early this morning and it is also a higher low. That means the 30m/1hr/2hr are all calling for a movement up (though for reference, the trends before were all mostly lower lows also). So the next movement will be the 3hr and see if we bounce there, which will likely be between the 6hr and 12hr trend lines. Once we get a 3hr, we will have a jump with the only next trend being the Daily. I would expect the 30m at least to get an uptrend before we head lower at that point. So with that said, the trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4146 Downtrend (5/8/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4137 Downtrend (5/9/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4128 Downtrend (5/10/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4151 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Lower High 4Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Thus far we have not broken and stayed below the 2hr. The Long Position; I would probably wait for a strong move above 4140 and might potentially jump in trying to get at least a 30m uptrend likely around 4160 and see where things go. The Short Position; I think the 4132 is a decent entry point down. For the record, I'm NOT taking it, because I don't think I want to trade prior to CPI data. I will likely attempt to catch a wave on CPI and see if I can surf it and jump out once it looks overheated in either direction. So yeah, I don't think I'd jump in to a short prior to CPI here. Economic Data; CPI Data is today. I mention in the video, but basically if we come in as expected (which is basically flat) or even slightly below expectations, I just don't think there is anything new to be excited so we may get a small pop but it'll fizzle quickly. I think the bigger danger of a move, is if it comes in to a surprise upside showing inflation is moving back up, and that will help to start nudge us off the cliff we are staying off of for a next leg down. Earnings; Disney is after market close. So I'll be watching that for later. Geopolitical Issues; Just local stuff here in the US with the argument over the debt ceiling. At no point do I think we will default, because those politicians all have a lot of money in the market themselves, but I do think they will hold things to see if they can scare the market down so they can purchase stocks at a premium. This is why we really need to stop Federal politicians from being able to invest in the market. My Sentiment; Shorter Term - Neutral/Slightly bearish Short Term - Neutral/Slightly bearish Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral/Slightly Bullish All in all I expect more potential downside than up. I think it is an issue that 92% of the gains in the S&P for the year are on the top 15 companies. It is around 80% is all from just the top 5. At one point do these handful of stocks that are carrying the market break and people look to cash out and the market falls? Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan. I am marking this as a SHORT for the day, but realize I am advising a lot of caution and patience here. My intent is to try and gauge which way the market is going off of CPI, and catch a 10-20 point wave and cash out or look to put profit stops.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
5
Trends continue to be mixed as we head into CPISo since we failed to get a 4hr uptrend, broke below the 30m, and appear to be guided by the 3hr trend timeframe at the moment, I am short at 4151. Looking to see us hit 4130 (the 6hr ascending trendline) and see if we break below that or fail. If we break below that I'll be looking to see if we can head down to the 12hr flatish (slight ascending) trendline at 4185. I have some concerns here in that I am getting a buy signal on the ES!, however, I don't feel it is a good signal as it comes after that nearly 2% movement up, so the signal is more a lagging indicator than trend momentum shift. My 6E trade continues to be profitable, with a recent bump putting it close to $2000. That allows me to reduce some pressure off needing to trade on the ES if the S&P continues to act nutty. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4146 Downtrend (5/8/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4137 Downtrend (5/9/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4136 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4151 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Lower High 4Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Currently just scouting for the 2hr downtrend signal to hit if we keep going lower as the next trend. The last 2hr downtrend was 4118, so currently I expect it to be a higher low unless we melt down a good 20 points over a 2hr period. The Long Position; Both the 6hr ascending trendline (a higher low downtrend) and the potential 2hr higher low mark if it shows up, could both be entry points to the upside. I don't know I'll flip my position since I'm in a Short position, as I might want to give the Short some wiggle room to go down further, but if it fails I'll likely have then missed my entry point for these positions. See how I feel when/if they happen. The Short Position; I think the breakdown of the 30m was good the last entry point. Currently we have broken beneath the 1hr, so a less secure entry point though still decent move might be if we reach back up and touch 4138, dumping the trade if it ends the 1hr bar higher and holding if it continues to hold below that trendline. Another entry to a short could be if we move with momentum below the 6hr bar that is currently at around 4130. I would be more cautious on this last one, as by that point we could have several trends calling for a movement up and having been violated past their support levels. Economic Data; Nothing major today. All eyes on CPI tomorrow most likely. Earnings; Nothing noteworthy today. My sentiment; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral/Bullish Obviously I hope for more downside because I'm in a Short, but I don't have strong data that says we remain here, just had data that we would fall below that 4150 level I had talked about yesterday. The super low volume is making trading very difficult. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends having higher highs and lower lows; which way to go?So after sitting back and being less annoyed with the market and doing a proper analysis, I see that I think this level is coming in as a pivotal point in our next move. The 1hr/2hr are both showing higher highs and lower lows for the previous trends. The 3hr has a lower high and lower low but was violated already. If the 4hr hits it too will have a higher high and lower low, which I have seen it just start to signal here at 4160.75, so if it can maintain this movement up until 9am EST, it will signal than as well. After drawing several possible trendlines and looking at trends mathematically, my next entry point to a short could very well be 4190 or 4151 if we lose steam here. The area between those two zones to me at this point is likely to be a no trade zone. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4100 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4126 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4136 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4151 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Lower High 4Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low I would expect at this point to see the 30m at least get corrected, possibly by the end of the day. The Long Position; If I see a downtrend on the 30m I would consider using that as an entry for price movement upward. However, I am not sure at this point I want to get into a Long position, so we will see how that move looks then. The Short Position; A trend resistance looks to be coming in at 4190. The other end of that trade is falling back below the first lower high we have had, which is the 3hr at 4151. Economic Data; The Loan Officer Survey is today. That is the main one I'm interested in to see if we indeed have lending tightening going on during this bank "issue" that may or may not even exist. Otherwise, CPI is Wednesday and should bring some movement into the market. Earnings; Disney later this week, but yeah, Earnings are a bit slow this week. All in all, this to me feels like a sit out and wait kinda day, or look for a pump that hits a resistance that I can short before a potential dump afterwards back down to at least 4100. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral with a bearish bias Long Term - Neutral with a Bullish bias As always, safe trading and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
3
The Top 2 Stocks To Buy:3 Points You Will Get From This VideoThe problem with trading is that by the time you see the move the price has already started moving -- So you need to be prepared to enter at a loss that's just the climate of capitalism -- In this video you will learn: 1-About the Gap 2-Advantage of a candle stick chart 3-The #1 indicator to follow -- Watch this video before you trade, then after you watch it remember to rocket boost it So that you can share this content as well -- Cheers, Lubosi Forex
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by lubosi
Trends showing likely calm going into the weekendSo with the 6hr and 12hr both being a higher low, I'd expect at this point for us to at least head up and catch the 1hr violated trend. We've already hit the 30m (lower high) this morning. The 1hr is going to be a tricky trend, as the last uptrend we had was actually low at 4107, so there is the potential it will be a higher high and therefore not provide much guidance. This is likely one of those days I may just sit out and observe. If we have a significant dip, and then rally back up, we could absolutely see a 1hr uptrend lower than 4107, but if this unhindered movement up continues, it will likely provide us a the higher high 1hr, and then we look to the 2hr which currently has us heading down. All in all, if we pushed higher I think we would end up maxing out our trends fairly quickly and just be heading back down soon after, so overall I'm fairly neutral right now. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4100 Uptrend (5/5/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4167 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4118 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4083 Downtrend (5/4/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; A move down to that acquires a 30m downtrend could very well be an entry point, as I that would max us in downtrends except the Daily, and I don't see us jumping from 30m to Daily without assistance from a higher timeframe. The Short Position; A strong push back below 4100 (the 30m lower high) could signal at least a return to 4080ish and has the potential for more movement down. Not sure I like either move at this point as they are both likely short trades with too much risk. Economic Data; Unemployment, Payrolls, and Wages... oh my! Honestly not sure it will move the market like it should during an Earnings week. Earnings; The residual of Apple's earnings will play out today. I think this is becoming a major issue that much of the market is faltering and being propped up by mainly the Big 5 companies. They are sitting at 22x valuation while most of the rest of the market is around 17x-18x valuation. Seems to thought is, if we can't trust our money in the banks, just toss it into Microsoft, Google, Apple, etc. My sentiment overall; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Mmmm... Neutral/Slight Bearish Long Term - Neutral/Slightly... Bullish? It is hard for me to expect a continued sell off with such pathetic volume in the down days to match the pathetic volume of the up days. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
3
Trends bring in key levels to watchSo while I didn't get my first entry at 4160, I ended up entering back in where I left off at 4125. Sucks to lose out on that almost $2000, but that is the way of risk management. My key level to watch is where/if this 12hr bar finalizes by 13:00 EST. The last 12hr downtrend was 4060. So if I want to continue following through with this trade, I'd like to see the 12hr settle below 4060. If it doesn't, and I sense the potential of a mini rally, I very well might just cash out my trade and take profit and continue next week once I see how Friday ends. Additionally, I'm yet again in the 6E contract. I'm currently up about $250 on a short, and continue to believe that we will have a .03 drop at least to around 1.08 because of how excessively over heated that market is. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4116 Downtrend (5/3/2023) Lower Low 1Hr - 4167 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4118 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; If we struggle to make new lows than the under 4080 level could be a great entry point to another rally. Additionally, a strong push up above 4100 at the open could signal the 4100 support level is stronger than it currently appears. I can't say I feel confident still at this point going into a Long position. The Short Position; I'm in the short position from 4125. If I was looking for an entry at this point, I'd probably look for a strong move past 4090, or even just wait and see how things are at 13:00. I think this level at 4090 is difficult, and remember it is the current uptrend point of the 12hr timeframe to begin with. So I'd use caution on an entry level just above 4090 as I think the 4090 level +\- 10 is a strong support level until we break well beneath it. Economic Data; ECB Rates are today here shortly. Last time that ended up impacting the US Market more than the FOMC rate decision did. Additionally, the jobs data is in today. I still think people are burnt out on jobs data and overlooking it at this point, but we might have had a wake up call by Powell on the importance of this data. Earnings; Apple is today, though it will be after the close. This is, if memory serves, the last major company of the top 5 to report. Keep in mind that all the other well overvalued top 5 companies did well and rallied even with their excessive valuation, so this one could as well. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Neutral My main focus is on holding this trade until 13:00 EST and then deciding how I want to proceed. Safe trading, and remember your risk management
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
HOW TO: Trade with TrendDECODER🥇 Best indicator on ProRealTime MarketPlace - Now available on TradingView ✔️ Identify ranges and the next probable moves ✔️ Get the earliest signals and the strength of Trends ✔️ Get clear exits before reversal ✔️ Spot the Fibo levels the price will test --------------------------------------------------------------- Trading is Timing ! Stop being too early or too late trading the Trend or getting stuck in a Range. 📌 What is it about ? ----------------------------- The TrendDECODER is a concentrate of multiple innovations to make Trend following simple and easy . 👉 With the GreyBox© - identify when the market gets out of the Trend with a new sequence of transition. Check if the market is in Range, Continuation or Reversal (Up or Down) and wait for the closing of the box to get the Trend signal. 👉 With the DecoderSignals© & Blue /Orange Clouds© - once the GreyBox has delivered its message, get the new direction of the Trend and see the probable zones of pull backs during the current direction. 👉 With the Projective TrendLine© - see before it happens the direction and the possible angle of the Trend with its probable range. 👉 With the RealTime TrendLine© vs the Projective TrendLine© - adjust immediately if the market accelerates North or South. 👉 With the RealTime TrendLine Crossing© - detect at the earliest the moment the Trend gets out of track, to get out of the train. 👉 With the FiboLevels© - spot immediately which price levels the market will test. 📌 For which asset? -------------------------- TrendDECODER works fine on all assets and all time-frames; 🎓 always work on a multi-timeframe environment to minimize risk; 📌 Why we made these innovations? ----------------------------------------------- Because the trend indicators that we know lag a lot and do not clearly identify ranges! We need much more powerful tools than Supertrend or a couple of moving averages crossings to get this done. 📌 How to trade with TrendDECODER? -------------------------------------------------- 🔹 Strategy #1: Trend Following : DecoderSignals© & Blue/Orange Clouds© -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The GreyBOX has given the next probable movement and the Signal of a Trend in on. The RealTime TrendLine guides us on the pace of this movement and the Blue/ Orange/Cloud figures the support/resistance of this movement. It will be wise not to jump immediately in the Trend as the signal appears as the price will very probably make a pullback in direction of the cloud first. Strategy #1: Checklist 📍 Set a Multi Time Frame environment 📍 Check that the Main Time Frame and the Upper Time Frame are moving in the same direction (Up or Down) 📍 In the Main Time Frame: check the appearance of the « TrendUp Signal » or the « TrendDown Signal » 📍 Entry: buying « at Market » immediately on a « Trend Signal » is quite risky as many times the price will pull back near the Clouds > a good option is to buy 1/2 the position at market on signal > and 1/2 after the first pull back 📍 First Stop Loss: place your SL under the lower border of the GreyBox for an expected TrendUp or the higher border for an expected TrendDown 📍 BreakEven: when the price reaches your Risk/Reward ratio of 1 = Distance StopLoss vs Entry = Distance Current Price vs Entry 📍 Trailing Stop: just under the lowest border of the Blue Cloud (TrendUp) or the highest border of the Orange Cloud (TrendDown) 📍 TakeProfits: in a TrendUP, place your take profits just under the FibosLevels in order not to get exited (and above in a TrendDOWN) 📍 Exits: > Early option : Crossing of the RealTime TrendLine > Late option : Crossing of the Blue/Orange cloud 🔹 Strategy #2: Early Trend following : RealTime TrendLine Crossing© ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ With this simple tool, get a very early signal of a probable inversion of the current Trend, way before the Decoder Signal is shown, once confirmed by the GreyBox. Strategy #2: Checklist 📍 Set a Multi Time Frame environment 📍 Check that the Main Time Frame and the Upper Time Frame are moving in the same direction (Up or Down) 📍 Entry (Main Time Frame): wait for the Close crossing over the ReaTime TrendLine in an expected TrendUp (under for a TrendDown ) 📍 First Stop Loss (Main Time Frame): > place your SL under the lower low of the GreyBox (for an expected TrendUp) or the higher high (for an expected TrendDown) 📍 BreakEven: move your SL to Entry price when the price reaches your Risk/Reward ratio of 1 = Distance StopLoss vs Entry = Distance Current Price vs Entry 📍 Trailing Stop: just under the lowest border of the Blue Cloud (TrendUp) or the highest border of the Orange Cloud (TrendDown) 📍 TakeProfits: in a TrendUP, place your take profits just under the FibosLevels in order not to get exited (and above in a TrendDOWN) 📍 Exits: > Early option : Crossing of the RealTime TrendLine > Late option : Crossing of the Blue/Orange cloud 📌 Configuration -------------------------- Well, basically you do not have to do anything ! But you can make TrendDECODER perfectly yours with a few switches in the configuration panel to make appear or disappear each one of the elements composing TrendDECODER.
XETR:DAX
by MetaSignalsPro
17
Trends in conflict; FOMC Rate Decision... Suggest PatienceSo with the close of yesterday, we have the 30m/1hr downtrends being higher lows and being violated significantly. We then got the 2hr/3hr/4hr all as lower lows. The 6hr was in lower low territory for a while, but just before it closed out that bar, we rallied briefly to give us a slight higher low downtrend signal there. So basically, we have the 30m/1hr/6hr vs the 2hr/3hr/4hr. Not something I want to get involved in at this point, so I'll sit out. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4179 Downtrend (5/1/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4167 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4118 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4124 Downtrend (5/2/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; Strong push upward past 4155 could allow us to head higher to 4200 again. The 30m and 1hr uptrends if we get them up here, will both be higher highs, and both could signal us to head higher as well. The Short Position; The volume of yesterday's movement was in the downward momentum. I'll be interested in getting back in if I see a strong push below 4125, which is roughly where the 6hr higher low trendline is currently at as well. Economic Data; We had ADP NonFarm Employment data this morning. It came out 200% surprise to the upside. Yep, DOUBLE the expected data, so that job data shows a strong surprise to the upside. We will still have some PMI and ISM data before this afternoon with the FOMC rate decision. I talked about my opinion on this FOMC rate decision in the video. Earnings; Qualcomm is the big one, otherwise nothing significant. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Neutral/Slight Bullish, just briefly Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Slight Bearish Long Term - Neutral Safe trading, remember your risk management. I am marking this as a Short today, because I think there is more risk going into the FOMC rate decision to push us lower than take us higher.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends into 5/2/2023So we spiked up briefly but then got the 30m downtrend yesterday just below where we started. While it is only one trend, and we've managed to keep below the trendline associated with it, the move lessens the promise of an easy and safe entry point at 4185, as the 30m could attempt to move the market up on it's own. I'll most likely put a profit stop now on the trade, or one with minimal loss, depending on how we looked above 4181. Luckily, even if I have to take a small loss, currently my 6E trade has garnered me about HKEX:700 , and I could use that to offset some risk on my main focus of the ES. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4179 Downtrend (5/1/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4107 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4127 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High 3Hr - 4154 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4158 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High 6Hr - 4185 Uptrend (4/28/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; If you believe the market is set to head higher, this is the likely entry point here, with an exit point at the 30m uptrend which at this point would likely be around 4210ish. The Short Position; 4179 was the support level shown by the 30m downtrend, we have not really allowed it to buoy us yet, so any return to that level could be a potential entry point. That said, If I wasn't already in a Short position, I'd probably be patiently waiting for a good entry point at the risk of losing out on a small leg down over today. Economic Data; JOLTs job data today. I've mixed feelings on how impactful that data really is. Earnings; AMD, Pfizer, and Starbucks are today. AMD especially on any guidance that might show weakness in Tech, and Starbucks to show any weakness in the consumer. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Bearish/Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Slight Bearish Long Term - Still just kinda Neutral Overall, I still think that overall many of the S&P companies are hurting, and this rise was on the backs of the Top 10 companies, which are then sitting and excessively high valuation levels. A leg down, even halfway, would show me that some room is being made for more potential growth as investment could better be spread across the S&P 500 and remove some of the bearish sentiment in the market. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
3
Trends maxed to the upside againSo with the 6hr uptrend hitting on the major upward move that ended the week, we are maxed out on uptrends yet again. I'd expect at least a brief sell off to get a 30m downtrend, in which I'll be able to set a profit stop and go from there. Earnings season never seems to disappoint in that it drives the market up regardless of other macroeconomic conditions that are happening. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4155 Uptrend (4/28/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 4107 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4127 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High 3Hr - 4154 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4158 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High 6Hr - 4185 Uptrend (4/28/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Again, I think the major issue is we are maxed to the upside. This has always proved to be an area that will drive back down even if briefly for a small gain. The Long Position; Mmmm, I may switch my position if I see a 30m uptrend. If I wasn't in a position at all, I don't know I'd feel comfortable going into anything long from the point we are already at. The Short Position; Currently, anything at or above 4185 would be a short entry based on maxed out trends. That is why I'm short. I'm not telling you what to do, by any means, and all investors know the success or failure of their investment is on them... I'm just telling you I went short at the level we are at for a reason. Economic Data; ISM Manufacturing is today. Looking to see if it stays in a contraction, and if that contraction eases. Keep in mind that FOMC Rate day is Wednesday. Earnings; Nothing major today, just the general smaller large cap S&P companies. Apple is on May 4th, that is the biggest of the week. There are a few other big companies reporting this week, but we are slowly coming to a close on Earnings week (I think there is one more big week). My sentiment overalll; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Mmmm.... let's just go Neutral for now Long Term - Neutral Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
My secret to being a profitable Swing Trader: The TPIA Quick Reminder! It's important to have a good list of alt coins with good fundamentals, when you want to pivot over to hold altcoins like I show here! The Trend Probability Indicator (TPI) is a powerful tool utilized in modern portfolio theory to assess whether a market is experiencing a bullish or bearish trend. By integrating multiple systems, including machine learning algorithms, the TPI provides valuable insights into market conditions and helps investors make informed decisions. The TPI integrates eight systems, including a machine learning algorithm based on a kernel regression model. It analyzes market trends and determines the overall market structure (bullish, bearish, or neutral). The TPI value ranges from -1 to +1, with -0.2 to +0.2 indicating a neutral or ranging market. Positive TPI values indicate bullishness, negative values suggest bearishness. The TPI incorporates machine learning to predict future market movements. Investors can use the TPI to evaluate trend probability and make informed portfolio decisions. By using the TPI to compare the strength of cryptocurrency pairs, investors can gain valuable insights to make strategic investment decisions and optimize their portfolio performance while managing risk effectively. It gives you these additional super-powers to scan the market: The TPI helps gauge the relative strength between two cryptocurrencies, indicating which one has a stronger bullish or bearish trend. By comparing the TPI values of different cryptocurrency pairs, investors can identify favorable trading opportunities where one crypto is likely to outperform the other. Based on the TPI analysis, investors can allocate their portfolio in a way that maximizes returns by favoring the crypto with a stronger trend while minimizing risk. Timing Entry and Exit Points: The TPI assists in determining optimal entry and exit points for trading a particular crypto pair, improving the timing of transactions and potentially enhancing profitability. By considering the TPI values of different crypto pairs, investors can make more informed decisions regarding risk management, such as adjusting position sizes or diversifying holdings. The Based Algo The Based Algo is a mean-reversion tool that uses funding, adaptive moving average lines and funding + volume to detect tops and bottoms. Let me know if you have any questions! I linked a video that explains how we allocate between BINANCE:BTCUSDT and $BINANCE:ETHUSDT. Give it a look!
Education
by IkkeOmar
10
Trends brought in the rally, but positioned to head lower now So I was away from my computer and basically just managed a trade via phone and had no way to make an update for yesterday. My analysis was basically close to the same sentiment I had from Wednesday, which was that we had violated too many trends and were going to see a brief rally. From that rally, we now have several trends that when they went uptrend, are showing lower highs now and could easily then dip down to lower lows and beyond. So I think overall in terms of the market placement, we are set for things to go lower. However, if we go lower will likely depend on PCE data and Personal Income/Spending set to release this morning. While the analysis says to head lower, I've said so many times that nothing destroys any analysis like economic data. Especially after a fairly grim picture from yesterday that showed GDP slowed significantly even though the labor market remains strong. It should be noted that heavy movements in unemployment tend to happen during a recession, not before it begins. Anyways, the trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4137 Downtrend (4/28/2023) Lower Low 1Hr - 4107 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4127 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High 3Hr - 4154 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4158 Uptrend (4/27/2023) Lower High 6Hr - 4118 Downtrend (4/25/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; There is the potential to go back to every dip is a rally point, as yesterday's low volume one sided rally move shows that there is still a lot of Bullish sentiment in the market that we could go higher to 4200 and beyond. Currently I don't think I'd enter into a long trade unless we get above the 4hr, as every downtrend we hit currently will be a lower low. The Short Position; Being that I was away and couldn't bring up my trend algorithm, I believe I missed the short entry point which was 4158. I suppose a strong move down past the 30m downtrend point of 4136 could end up as a late entry, but I might just kick back and watch after a relatively good week. Economic Data; PCE and Personal Income and Spending are today. I expect this to cause major movements at this time, unless it comes in directly on as expected. Earnings; Chevron, which beat earnings but warns of falling oil prices ahead, was the only major company to report today. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Honestly... I'm kinda bullish I think on a long term. I guess we will see if we do end up heading lower, how low it goes, but if it stalls at 3900 and we rally back up, then I think we could easily rally next time to 4300. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
5
Potential sideways /Mini Rally at playSo I cashed out when we struck the 12hr trendline around 4095 yesterday. With the way the trends are looking I think I'm likely to just sit out for today and let the market play itself out. While I was stopped out and lost nearly half of the surge I gathered in the 6E, between the few hundred on that and the money made on the S&P I've more than surpassed my weekly HKEX:2500 goal and don't feel confident enough in either direction to get involved today. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4142 Downtrend (4/24/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4135 Downtrend (4/25/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4162 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4159 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4146 Downtrend (4/20/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4118 Downtrend (4/25/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; I could see any entry below 4100 grabbing a short move up to 4120ish. However, I don't think either then off the back of Google, that we see a huge push upward today. The Short Position; A strong move below 4090 could take us to 4050. Not sure I want to jump in on this at this point, but it would likely be just enough to gather that 12hr downtrend. Additionally, any major spike rally I see as fading pretty quickly, especially if it has no volume behind it. Economic Data; Durable Goods Orders came in today higher than expected. Not sure how I'd look at trading that, nor does it appear the market is sure either. Earnings; Meta is today, but AMC. I'd mostly just be glancing at the AMC companies from yesterday to make moves, such as Google and Microsoft. My sentiment into today; Neutral across the board... so I think I'm going to just take a nap and take today off. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
Trends beginning to signal some potential support; Earnings AMCSo I'm currently running two shorts, one on the ES! and one on the 6E. I attempted both a Long and Short yesterday, and both were profit stopped for $100, so after only making HKEX:200 yesterday, I waited until the close and then went short on the market into today, ready to bail if the S&P decides to shake off the movement down... again... and rally into the open and throughout the day. The trends definitely are showing the potential for a brief support rally here, with the 2hr/3hr/4hr all violated and wanting to pull the market back up, and the 30m movements that were heading lower now appearing to be calling for price to come back up also. Currently I expect to see a 1hr downtrend, and that lost 6hr downtrend, but will then evaluate if I want to maintain my short position or briefly look for a retracement back up, even if I think ultimately we head down lower. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4142 Downtrend (4/24/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4155 Uptrend (4/24/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4162 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4159 Downtrend (4/19/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4146 Downtrend (4/20/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4041 Uptrend (3/29/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4091 Uptrend (3/30/2023) Higher High Daily - 4168 Uptrend (4/13/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; If we move lower to a 1hr and/or 6hr downtrend, I really may switch my position briefly if the movement appears to fizzle to a long position, at least to snag a 30m/1hr/2hr uptrend movement. Otherwise, I'm not sure that today I expect us to push back above 4160 and make any new highs from the last couple of days. The Short Position; I'm in my short position already, but if I wasn't, I might look at an entry point around 4155. Additionally, if I decide to bail because of a mid day rally, that may be my re-entry point into a short position. Economic Data; CB Consumer Confidence comes in today. I am interested to see how this comes out along expectations. I may glance at home sales also just to see where the overall feelings of the "American Dream" are going. Earnings; Major players with earnings today. I went over several, but many of the biggest ones are AMC, so I expect a massive move after the US Markets close but before the Future contracts pause that will continue overnight. Geopolitical; It appears that Geopolitical tensions are on the rise again also, and the Sudanese events are likely to cause more instability in the world. Overall, the ESM contract has done nothing but go upward since it was released, and I expect it to release some of the gains it has gathered before it resolves in the beginning of June. My sentiment into today is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - I'm just going to go with Neutral at the moment. Safe trading, and remember your risk management.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader