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Trends still could allow some upward movement; However, FED DayI've said it a dozen times... remember that nothing annihilates a technical analysis like key Economic Data. So with that, at 2pm EST, it is the interest rate decision, though really I think it'll be the forward guidance that drives the market up or down. The last time we heard Jerome Powell talk (during his Congressional Hearing) he was rather Hawkish and discussing raising the target interest rate expectations as inflation is just not coming down as much as they had hoped. Then we had the banking crisis, which has now in terms of stock valuation fully recovered and if the current trajectory continues will actually be HIGHER than prior to the issue. It certainly appears that risk appetite is in full hunger mode. I am stll sitting in a short at 4019. In hindsight I should have set a profit stop once we got well below it yesterday, but did not. If we end up higher on the day with more room for upward movement I may take my loss on that one. I did get profit stopped out of my 6E trade, but continue to believe that is set for a reversal move back down. I may take a day off of trading that one though. Either way, the trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4027 Downtrend (3/22/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 3977 Uptrend (3/20/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4008 Uptrend (3/21/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4008 Uptrend (3/21/2023) Lower High* 4Hr - 4017 Uptrend (3/21/2023) Lower High 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Keep in mind that these trends are along the ESM from the 4 hour and below. So the discrepancies between the ES! overlay and ESM specifically are annotated in an * The Long Position; Currently I don't have much in terms of a long position sentiment. I think we've gone up too much, too quickly, on low volume. I can't say I'd find a reason to go long at this point, unless the FOMC comes out extremely Dovish and talks about cutting rates, which I don't foresee happening with the increased inflation pressure and appearance of a full recovery of the financial system. The Short Position; On a technical level we should at LEAST be having a calm, small whipsaw day, but with the FOMC coming out I don't see that happening, so the technical analysis says we should at least have a down day if we go one direction or the other. Additionally, if Powell comes out hawkish it could really send the market spinning back down after way to much upward risk appetite. Economic Data; It's a Fed Day, and includes forward projections, so 2pm EST is going to be huge. My sentiment is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Bearish/Neutral Long Term - Neutral Remember your risk management plan, be careful trading into the FOMC decision, and safe trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
1
Recession has become the Bull Case? Trends into 3/21/2023So I went short this morning at 4019 based on a MACD data plot on the ESM contracts. The buy zone on a data plot was 3948, and I feel like that really followed through into today, where my sell plot was to be at 4019. I had a short preset overnight and it struck early this morning. As far as trends, we are beginning to hit a lot of higher timeframe uptrends that are all lower highs, so even if we are going to head higher, I see us hitting some resistance here on a regular basis. We just got a lower high 3hr Uptrend at 4008, and we are currently signaling a 4hr uptrend depending on where we close here by 9am EST. Those trends going into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3959 Uptrend (3/20/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 3977 Uptrend (3/20/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4008 Uptrend (3/21/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4008 Uptrend (3/21/2023) Lower High 4Hr - 4047 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Key notations, the 4047 is in an uptrend on the ES! overlay, though it is only just now signaling on the ESM. The 6hr is in an uptrend on the ES! overlay as well (lower high) but has not signaled on the ESM contract specifically. The Long Position; I don't have a Long Position up here at above 4010. If we drop down to around 3950, I might potentially look at reverse my current position (Short) to see if we come back up. Depends on how it looks. The Short Position; I'm currently in a short position at 4019 to hold down to around 3950. If we falter and I bail on this before 3950, I'll likely keep shorting if we come up to this 4019 level over and over again. Economic Data; Some housing sales stuff today, but I don't see that having a major impact on the market. I still think this market is prime to potentially head lower with no positive Macroeconomic environment really out there right now. My sentiment into today (from 4019) Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
ES! vs ESM contract trends differ; Patience is paramount againI wanna make some breakfast so I'll keep the write up short. I'm out of the market at the moment, and my overall sentiment is very neutral. The ES! contract overaly has a bit of room for us to head further south, however the ESM contract has that anything towards 3900 is going to come back up. I'll be watching for the potential of both. Overall the market sentiment is more Bullish than Bearish, but there is enough doom and gloom to break that mental barrier at any moment. The trends into today (On the ESM); Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3983 Downtrend (3/17/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 3963 Downtrend (3/17/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 3949 Downtrend (3/17/2023) Lower Low* 3Hr - 4047* Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4047 Downtrend* (3/7/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The * signifies the discrepancies between the ES! and ESM. We are in a Higher Low for the 2hr on the ES!, we just got a new lower low on the 3hr in the ES!, and we are currently in an uptrend on the 4hr on the ES!. Currently I'm still mostly following the ESM specifically, because the price doesn't have the gap to throw off the math and analysis. The Long Position; If we get low towards 3900 and I don't see a meltdown occurring, I'll be looking for a nice Long position. While investors are dumping financial stocks, they are picking up in tech stocks. The Short Position; I'll be looking for any indication that the general gloom of the market is taking over, and we are heading back down into 3800 territory, or a good spot to grab a short to head down towards low 3900s again to prepare for a Long Position swap. Economic Data; There is no impactful data today. Legarde speaks twice today and once tomorrow, so I'd watch for how that impacts things. Wednesday is Fed Day, so I expect that is where most of the focus will be on. My sentiment; I'm very neutral across the board at the moment. Maybe I'll have a different feel as things go. These are those moments where patience is key. If you followed along, you're aware I made close to $25,000 last week, so there is ZERO reason for me to rush into a position to try and make some money this week. Safe trading, and remember your risk management.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
4
Upward movement is hitting resistant Trends; Beware the WitchingSo I had taken a small profit last night on 3997 short and then reengaged at 4000 where I had wanted to get in at to begin with. I had set an overnight cash out at 3968 based on the 1hr trendlines and while driving home today, totally forgot it was still set and it cashed me out of my short position for a profit of $1600. I'm not upset about it, but I likely would still be holding that position if that hadn't happened. I did not just jump back into the market at that point, and figured I'd take the time to sit back and analyze things. Given the high profit week I've had (I believe I'm close to around $20,000 but I'd have to check) I might just take the rest of the day off. Anyways, there is some conflict in the trends depending on if I am looking at the ES contract overlay or specifically the ESM contract we are working inside right now. The ES overlay had a 2hr uptrend that came in at a higher high, whereas the 2hr hitting at the same spot on the ESM is a lower high. Also, the ES overlay had the 3hr and 4hr also go into an uptrend, whereas the ESM contract did not have those trend changes. It leaves be a bit conflicted on my short position, but overall my sentiment is still bearish on today's market. The trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3983 Downtrend (3/17/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 3963 Downtrend (3/17/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 3987 Uptrend (3/16/2023) Lower High* 3Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low* 4Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low* 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Be aware the 1hr Downtrend stuck after I finished the video and is therefore more up to date in this write up. The Long Position; If I see a significant pull up towards the 4000 level and into positive territory, I may briefly go into a long position until I see the 3hr/4hr uptrends come in on the ESM contract. I don't know that I want to go Long here and attempt to catch this falling knife. The Short Position; Any pullback upwards that doesn't show a lot of bullish commitment where likely be another entry point to get in on a considerable move downward, likely back towards at least 3900. I think the rally in the Nasdaq will lose some of the push and a continue confidence loss in the financial sector and energy sector could really hurt the market today. This is my more likely scenario. Economic Data; Europe posted some really bad CPI data. Though surprisingly it did very little to the market overall. Otherwise, the US has some Michigan data coming out, such as consumer expectations, that could cause a ruckus at around 10am EST. My Sentiment into Today (from 3965) Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral/Bearish Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Neutral I will make this as a "Short" idea today, because I believe that we end with a down day, and likely lower than 3965. Safe trading, and remember your risk management!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
2
Trends maxed to the downside; However direction unclearI don't have as much confidence in a direction today as I've had the last few days, sorry. No overnight trades for me and while I want to go Long here, I'm not so sure this is the area I want to try for a long position. Ultimately, with the money I've made the last 3 days, I think it might be a good day to sit out for me unless I see something of tremendous opportunity. I do have a Buy signal on the MACD Momentum chart, but that is for this current day, which means it is a signal in development and not for sure. If it holds and we have a down day, then I may buy in at the close of the session for tomorrow, but that doesn't help me today. Overall, at best assessment, I think we have a whipsaw day and end right around +\- 10 or even zero. I'd say that might happen without much movement, but we do have jobless claims in the next hour, so I expect some market reaction on that initially. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3919 Downtrend (3/16/2023) Lower Low 1Hr - 3921 Downtrend (3/15/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4048 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Higher Low* 3Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; I think we are currently in a potential Long position at 3910, I just don't feel the ends justify the risk, as I see it pulling back up at least above the 30m trend line which is only like 3918. The Short Position; For me to decide I want to go short, I'd have to see a 30m/1hr/2hr lower high uptrend mark. I don't know that the 30m will give us that if we rally from here, and the 1hr has to come in below 3948. Not sure that happens this morning without a big push down first. Economic Data; Jobless data comes out. As well as some building permits and Philly Manufacturing Data. Jobless data is likely the biggest thing unless something shocks outside of expectations. I'll be interested to see where the 8:30 movement takes us. My overall sentiment (from 3912); Shorter Term - Hint of Bullish/Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Neutral Basically the market is either looking to turn trends around to head further up, or consolidating and trying to catch a few lower timeframe trends to take this market further down. I know that doesn't help with a direction from today, but that is my sentiment. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan. I am marking this Long, as I think we jump back up to above 3920 from this 3912 range, and that if we end with a low day that I think tomorrow is a rally day.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
After the morning plummet, outlook is hard to seeSo I went short last night at 3961 believing that the late day surge was illogical. In fact, I didn't go on a tangent in the video, but many news articles said "Inflation is cooling and markets are surging". That is a downright lie, and why you need to understand Economic Data and find things yourself. CPI INCREASED from .4% to .5%, which isn't a major jump, but certainly doesn't show things going down. I've cashed out this morning already at 3880 for $4000 when we hit a 2% drop on the day in just an hour. My analysis says we should head back up now, but I've held off going Long at this point as while the technical analysis says we should bounce, this Credit Suisse continuation of financial collapse fears came with a vengeance. Honestly, at over $10k for the week now, I really might just sit out today and let fear vs analysis work itself out unless I see a fantastic entry point. The trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3935 Downtrend (3/15/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 3921 Downtrend (3/15/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4048 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Higher Low* 3Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; The current area is already a decent entry point (3880ish). Any more movement down without some supporting information is likely to garner even more confidence of a pop back up to at least the level of 3913-3922. The Short Position; I don't really have an analysis that would cause me to go short again from here (3880). I'd have to see us rally back up and get at least a 30m uptrend mark and hold onto more potential for a downside here to get involved in a short. I'll update later, but at this time there is not much that would cause me to snag a short this low on the day already. Economic Data; PPI and Retail Sales is today. It might give some insight into the FOMC hiking rates or pausing to try and heal this financial crisis issue that has surfaced. My sentiment into today (from 3880); Shorter Term - Bullish Short Term - Bullish/Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral I want to dive into the belief we are heading towards those October lows, but I think there is just too much sentiment at the moment for us to get below 3800, and the technical analysis doesn't support any strong pushes down just yet. Safe trading, and remember your risk management! I am marking this as a "Long", as while I think we will end up negative on the day, I think we head up above this level of 3880.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
1
Trends still maxed to the downside; but CPI data incomingSo, after crushing a $5000+ day yesterday I will unlikely trade into the CPI data this morning. Ultimately the market environment could certainly take us lower, but the market analysis says we have to go higher. Likely the cause of a massive volume day yesterday at nearly 3.5 million. Although, we are around 25 points higher this morning so far, so we could head lower if we begin to see some trends pop up here and the upward movement fail. I want to point out that while the trends indicate the 2hr is a higher low, that is only on the M contract, and if I merged the K Contract into the M Contract we had gotten a brief 2hr uptrend and then bottomed at a 2hr downtrend yesterday. I'll likely merge the two contracts together here at the end of this week, but the huge gap in price between the two contracts can really throw off the shorter timeframes. The trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3916 Downtrend (3/10/2023) Lower Low 1Hr - 3886 Downtrend (3/10/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4048 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Higher Low* 3Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low So again, you can see we are still maxed out to the downside. The Long Position; Any pump to the downside is likely to reverse to at least a neutral area. Being that I can sit out if I choose to because my profit is high for the week already, this will likely be my more immediate stance. Additionally, if it Economic Data comes in to skyrocket us and runaway to the upside, I might jump in for a small piece of that if I see a good entry point. The Short Position; If we begin to see the 30m/1hr uptrends, I'll be looking to see if the momentum is failing and jump into a short position there, likely trying to ride a 1hr uptrend to a 30m downtrend at least. I'm less likely to get involved in this though, and if I do I'm unlikely to hold this position for more than some daily gains. Economic Data; CPI Print is today. It will likely either cause some reversing action and a rally in the financials, or more fighting over the potential for a rally vs where we should go with economic data if things look bleak. My sentiment going into today (from 3920ish) Shorter Term - Neutral/Bearish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Bullish Long Term - Neutral I'm going to mark this as a "Long" position, only because I'm likely to attempt to buy any dips with expectations of coming back up to the 3913ish level.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
4
Trends maxed to the downside; And what is all this about Banks?!So on Friday I went Long at the close of the day into the weekend. That netted a $2500 trade right away when things opened up into Sunday evening. I cashed out on that, and was pleasantly surprised to see all those gains given up overnight. I then went Long again when we briefly went into negative territory at 3894, and moved up with it slowly, where I was eventually stopped out on the reverse movement at 3914 for another $1000. $3500 before the open of Monday for the week is pretty fantastic. I attempted one more Long here but was stopped out for $50 profit, and at this point I'll just be looking for signs the upward momentum is beginning again. There is some confusion in drawing trends as the /ESK contract ended and now we are in the /ESM contract. I changed the trend numbers all over to the current /ESM contract, and they are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3916 Downtrend (3/10/2023) Lower Low 1Hr - 3886 Downtrend (3/10/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4048 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4047 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 4028 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4052 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3955 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; My more likely trading scenario, as we are maxed out in all trends to the downside at the moment. I expect any down movement to have a pop back to the upside. So I will be more or less looking for good entry points that show that upward momentum is beginning, and run it up until it appears it might fail and cash out. We had a significant downward movement Friday with decent momentum, so I don't know that a rally will stick, but certainly I expect an upward spiking whipsaw day at least, even if we end relatively flat. The Short Position; This banking thing has many on edge. If we do get a spike up, it could be followed by a strong move back down, and if we hit up against the current lows of the 3890 area enough times, we might just bust through it and head lower for the day, continuing the meltdown we've seen over the last 2 days because of this SVB saga. Earnings; Adobe is this week, but otherwise Earnings are still nonexistent. Economic Data; We have nothing for today. However, we do have CPI Tuesday and PPI on Wednesday, with more job numbers on Thursday. Should definitely be a wild ride this week. I find it interesting that we are set for a technical bounce just before important inflation data. It means the market is primed for a major spike upward if this data comes in showing inflation is continuing to cool. Side Note; If you haven't been checking into the Silicon Valley Bank run, you really need to read into it. Thus far, basically SVB didn't position against the rate hikes very well, they moved to acquire more capital, it got out they needed capital, and this caused a frenzy of withdrawals that ultimately led to the Banks immediate collapse. The FDIC came in and took the bank over, and initially only deposits up to $250,000 were insured. This is a similar situation that occurred in 2008 during the great recession with Washington Mutual just before 500 other banks also ran into financial crisis. Therefore everyone had a sudden fear of other banks going under like before, and there has been a mass sell off in Financial related stocks. However, in analyzing things, banks are significantly less interconnected and have to establish better practices to protect against this, and while SVB made a mistake here, it wasn't that it mismanaged anything long term. They just made a single hiccup, so widespread fallout appears to be unlikely. Additionally, the FDIC has come out and said they will ensure all the money of all depositors, so no one will lose out other than investors. However, the fallout of this may very well force the FOMC to not just keep rate hikes lower at 25bps (it was believed late last week we could go to 50bps), but even pause the rate hike with not even a 25bps hike in order to make sure the financial sector remains healthy in the US. Certainly trade it as you see fit, but overall I think the panic move on this has most certainly been overdone, and we went about 30-40 points to low on Friday, even for a potential downward move. My sentiment into today, from 3895, is; Shorter Term - Bullish Short Term - Bullish/Neutral Medium Term - Bullish Long Term - Neutral Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
EURCHF I Best zones to trade this week!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** EURCHF Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
32
How to Trade the Markets - Step 2 - Develop the Mega TrendHello, In this video series i will be walking you through my new approach on how i am currently trading the markets. Step 2 - Develop the Mega Trend Once you have entered your position and set your stop loss, you will then want to align the Trend Meters with your current lifeline candle. Ultimately we want to see the next day candle break below the previous day of support and start to create space from our position. We align the 7,14 and 21 Trend Meters to confirm the development for a Mega Trend winning position. Let it run and work for you! We will exit and rotate the position once we have a confirmation from the Trend Meters. Follow up videos will come in the future to show you how this has performed for the year. Simplicity is key. Tight stops are key. Mega Trend is WINNING. Take care.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by UnknownUnicorn2319099
Trends maxed to the downside - But Payrolls (and soybeans?!?)So while I exited a bit too early, my prediction came about yesterday, and here we are. With us being maxed out to the downtrend, except the 30m that just popped an uptrend, I've some concerns that we will have a technical bounce up to gather some of the higher timeframe trends before we decide if we go flat briefly and rally, or build strength to head lower. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3911 Uptrend (3/10/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 3956 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 3989 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4023 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 3919 Downtrend (3/9/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; Any major movement down, especially if we get a 30m downtrend, will likely reverse back up to our current level. Additionally, we could see a technical bounce today, I'm just not sure it happens instantaneously. This is my more likely scenario excluding factoring in Economic Data (see below). However, every uptrend we hit is going to be a potential resistance, so I don't know that I will hold a Buy position for very long. The Short Position; I could see that if we come up, that we might want to briefly visit the lows of the day before we end up neutral. So basically, head lower at the open, to the lows, before settling there for the day or even coming back up. I'm not sure I'll take this position today, but it is the scenario that plays out if we head short. Economic Data; Payrolls and Unemployment is today. Likely going to be a major factor in the markets. So prepare yourself. My sentiment for the day (from 3910; Shorter Term - Bullish/Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Slight Bullish Long Term - Neutral I will make this as a "Long", but just fyi, I don't see us having a major 1.5%-2% day to the upside. I think we could end just slightly higher than where we are by the close of the day. Safe Trading, and remember your risk management!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
1
Patience is Encouraged in the center of range bound territory.So I had done a short trade based on some in the moment indicators we'd have a bit of a bounce at 13:00 EST yesterday and going even lower after. It was a safe trade that netted just over $1000. Not bad, considering I didn't expect to go short at all. Overall we are in the same basic picture today as yesterday. I'll be looking for a technical move up to a 30m or even 1hr uptrend to go short, and additionally if we have a soft move down I MIGHT go long again to come back up towards the 4000 level. I think my stance is a bit more bearish than bullish at the moment, but that changed yesterday and could change again. Either way, I don't know in the short term we have a major move one way or another unless Jobless Claims surprise the market. The Trends are the same as yesterday; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4051 Downtrend (3/07/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 3989 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4023 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; My least likely scenario, but if nothing seems to be needing to be priced in the market and we trickle down, I'd expect some buying pressure to bring us back up towards 4000. So I may go long at this point if we run down towards 3960 or so. Would need something to help me see a momentary bounce to buy in right now though. The Short Position; Being no surprising market data, I expect a brief pop still in the market, potentially towards the 4010 level or just below it along the mid time frame trend lines. I'd then look for signs that pop is fading and that it is just the next downward movement gaining strength. This avenue has a slightly stronger chance to me than the Long Position. Market Data; Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims. Look for a surprise to one direction or the other. Additionally, I felt that perhaps the market didn't price in the NonFarm ADP report from yesterday. That movement (downward, I suspect) could come in priced late. My sentiment (From 3984); Shorter Term - Neutral/Slight Buliish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Slight Bearish Long Term - Neutral I am going to list this as Short at the moment, as overall I think we head down from here, though I wouldn't just blindly short the market at the point and I want more clarity. Safe trading and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Recap of the Powell Testimony and Market Direction AnalysisNot sure how the video ended up so long, probably because of the rambling on the Powell Testimony and the impact on the market, but here we are. The 4010 level stayed relevant so long that 4 trends in a row all landed on that mark even though they ended at different times. I wouldn't be surprised if we briefly revisit that level before we head further south. The Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4051 Downtrend (3/07/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 4Hr - 4010 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 6Hr - 3989 Downtrend (3/7/2023) Lower Low 12Hr - 4023 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; With trends nearly maxed to the downside, I could see us having a bounce back. Additionally, we are around that 4000 level that has kept us range bound for 5 months now. Perhaps this time it acts as a support to surge us back up. The Short Position; The more likely option in my opinion. MACD Momentum has a weekly signal downward, the Daily Uptrend signal is fading, and the 2hr to 6hr trends were all lower lows, paving the way for more downward movement. Additionally, it was an above 2 million volume day, I don't think that sort of momentum just ends without a sideways day at least. I could see us continue to push downward back towards that 3913 level at least, even if there is a brief bounce back up to 4000-4010. Economic Data; More Powell Testimony. I went over some highlights of that in the video. Additionally, we have the JOLTs Job Data from January, which could surprise to the upside and cause a ruckus. The ADP Non Farm is also here shortly, and any surprise on that might also cause ripples in the market. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral/Bearish Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Neutral Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends into 3/6 week call for some initial corrective actionThe rally I had expected showed up, and now I feel it is time to have a cooling off moment before it decides where we head to next. In order to save a lot of time, I've removed the trend lines I usually maintain, because it takes a while to have to draw them out, and just went with the major one that is in focus, and listing all the trends in the box. Ultimately we have a number of lower high's from the 1hr to the 6hr that we have violated. That leads me to believe that some of this rally may come back, and we need some cooling off before we decide a direction. I don't know that I want to get into any major positions with the market at the moment until I get some clarification. The Trends; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4044 Downtrend (3/06/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 3969 Uptrend (3/2/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 3983 Uptrend (3/2/2023) Lower High 3Hr - 4013 Uptrend (3/3/2023) Lower High 4Hr - 4006 Uptrend (3/3/2023) Lower High 6Hr - 4039 Uptrend (3/3/2023) Lower High 12Hr - 4023 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Long Position; If I see a few downtrend signals pop that allow us to have a higher low, but the price action begins to rally off that mark, I will likely go in Long to capitalize on the current rally movement as I've not had a signal that this rally should end in the short term at this time. The Short Position; I've received a sell signal on my Momentum script on a weekly basis. I don't have a lot of back study involved in a price diversion between the weekly movement and weekly move signal, but we've been in a rally and had an up week, but ended last week with a sell signal. I find that concerning. I think at least in the short term, if some micro trends or even the 30m begin to show continued lower lows and lower highs, I will likely short the market at least back to 4000. This is my more likely expectation of the next movement. My sentiment; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Bearish/Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral I'm not ready to throw in the towel on a rally just yet, I just see some potential downside before more possible upside, so I want to wait and be patient. Because I believe the first movement could be a down move, I'm listing this as a Short for the day. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends and MACD MomentumSo, we absolutely struck my target zone of 3913-3930 yesterday. I waited for confirmation we'd spin around, and went long at 3945. As I said I cashed that out at 3988 just because I didn't want to hold into the close. That provided a 2 hour lower high uptrend mark, and I waited to see if we would cross that later once things opened back up, and got long yesterday evening again at 3978 into today. I'm currently holding that trade. The Long Position; I still believe we need to correct the violated trends of the 3hr/4hr/6hr. The 3hr has thus far not shown up yet when we were at 4000ish, we will see when it does. Additionally, I explain in my video, but I wrote a script that shows MACD Momentum, and indicates buy (or long) and sell (or short) signals off that information. I used to use this to trade exclusively over a year ago, as it shows MACD Trends, but overall didn't feel it was a good primary use, because many times it would show a buy signal after a significant move upward and things might reverse. What I learned over time however, was the gem of this script, was really in the divergence of the signal vs price. Basically, if it gives a buy signal while price is moving down, price either goes flat, or does reverse to the upside. Likewise if it provides a sell signal as price has been going up, that also indicates a reversal or at least price flattening. Some dates this has occurred over the last year; 2/7/2023 - Sell Signal on Upward Price 12/27/2022 - Buy Signal on Downward Price 9/29/2022 - Buy Signal on Downward Price 8/18/2022 - Sell Signal on Upward Price 8/4/2022 - Sell Signal on Upward Price (this one didn't work) 6/6/2022 - Sell Signal on Upward Price 5/25/2022 - Buy Signal on Downward Price Others before that worked the same way. So yeah, if you look, those were great signals for a reversal. Well we just had one on 3/1/2023, a buy signal on downward price movement. The Short Position; I could see some momentary downside to correct the 30m/1h/2hr so we can have some higher lows that lead us upward. I think any downward movement at this point will be short lived for the time being. Economic Data; We have ISM Non Manufacturing Data today. I don't know it'll be a catalystic driving force, but... there is some potential for market movement. Earnings; There are no Earnings today. My Sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral/Bullish Medium Term - Bullish Long Term - Neutral Safe trading! Remember that risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
Trends continue maxing out to the downsideShort video today. Basically I attempted several times to go Long in the market, and was profit stopped out every time for about $100. I went Long yet again this morning at 3935, for the same reasons I went Long yesterday, we are basically maxed out to the downside and in violation of several trends that will demand we fix ourselves (the 3hr/4hr/6hr/12hr). The Long Position; The one I'm in. I think we are headed back up to correct some of the trends we've left behind. I suspect around 4050ish, but we will see how things look when we get there. The Short Position; We could continue to swoop down little by little to hit my target of 3913, so each rally could fail for the moment, causing several small 10-20 point short positions while the 30m attempts to run with the market like it did yesterday. I will not be going short, but this is the scenario where I see that happening. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3964 Downtrend (3/01/2023) Lower Low 1Hr - 3977 Downtrend (2/28/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4113 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4104 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4095 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4064 Downtrend (2/10/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4023 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Economic Data; Jobless Claims and Labor cost will both be watched closely today. Earnings; Broadcom and Costco are the big movers of the day. I did mention in the video that the late plummet yesterday fell on Elon, being Elon, and providing some weird Elon guidance about Tesla that didn't resonate so well. Not an Earning but important none the less. My sentiment is much like yesterday; Shorter Term - Bullish Short Term - Bullish/Neutral Medium Term - Bullish/Neutral Long Term - Neutral Safe trading and remember that risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
Trends nearing a max movement to the downsideSo I was searching for a Long position, and after the close yesterday I went Long on both ES Futures, as well as 6E Futures. I woke up this morning to both coming in very well. I cashed in at just below $2500. While it looks like I may have jumped ship a bit early on the Euro, I seem to have gotten out at a good point on the S&P as we've given some of the gains back there. So all things seem to even out overall. I have some concern that the last 30m uptrend is a lower high, although because we immediately broke up past it, I'm not putting a lot of confidence that it has any plans to lead us anywhere. If we can get a 30m downtrend to come in above 3972, it will flip and be a higher low anyways. That was the only trend that changed yesterday, and it changed a total of 4 times in 24 hours, which shows we are more or less range bound. While I think things are looking up, at least briefly, to correct the 3hr/4hr/6hr trends, the downward movement with some commitment at the close of yesterday as me a bit concern to not just sit in a Long position at the moment, and cash in Longs and then wait for another potential entry. The Long Position; A movement down is likely to be followed by a movement up. I'll be looking for those movements to get into another long position again. The Short Position; I don't know that I'll take any shorts today honestly. I think we are overdue for some upward movement. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3980 Uptrend (3/01/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 3977 Downtrend (2/28/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4113 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4104 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4095 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4064 Downtrend (2/10/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4023 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Economic Data; Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI will be things to watch regarding the overall health of the economy. However, it is anyone's guess if the Market prices in bad news as bad news, or bad news as good news, much like we saw a lack of decision in a lower than expected Consumer Confidence Index of yesterday. Earnings; Lowes is this morning. Most retailers have reported better than expected Earnings, with potentially bleak forward guidance. Although, Home Depot had positive forward guidance because of the expectation that DIY home improvements will increase, so Lowes may have the same expectation. Salesforce is also then AMC in reporting. My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Neutral/Bearish Short Term - Bullish Medium Term - Neutral (Bullish then Bearish, basically) Long Term - Neutral Safe Trading, and remember your risk management! I am marking this as a "Long" because of the Bullish movement I think is overdue here.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
Trends and Direction into 2/28/2023Don't worry, much shorter video today since I went through my long winded explanation of the overall market picture yesterday. So I had said I would short at a 1hr uptrend yesterday. I went short at 4013 for a $1000 goal at 3993. I did have to hold through the bounce up which began to signal a 2hr uptrend, and I cashed out early at 3994 when we came back down, but overall I got what I was looking for. I then sat out the rest of the day. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3997 Uptrend (2/28/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 3977 Downtrend (2/23/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4113 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4104 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4095 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4064 Downtrend (2/10/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 4023 Downtrend (2/21/2023) Higher Low Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low The Short Move; From yesterday into today, the 30m and 1hr have both altered their trend direction upward, especially if we finish a 1hr uptrend around here. I am then waiting to see the 2hr uptrend come back into play again, and evaluate if the trends will immediately run back up to snag higher trends or if I can take a short position. The Long Move; On the flip side, because I expect a brief upward movement to collect several violated trends, if we go lower before getting a 2hr uptrend, and push below the 1hr I may actually go long depending on how the movement looks. We are fairly maxed to the downtrends, aside from a daily, so any major move downward would then have to fizzle out and be ripe for several brief long positions. Economic Data; I saw a major swing upward at 3am EST, and looked to see what may have caused such sentiment, and I did note that Spanish CPI came in higher than expected. The logic behind the move is that perhaps European Investors bailed on Euro stocks and jumped into US stocks. I'll mostly be watch for Chicago PMI (9:45am EST) and CB Consumer Confidence (10am EST) today though, as those are the more important things for US markets today. Earnings; I'm about to head over and see how Target did, as I believe it will cause a major interest in the health of the overall economy. Overall my sentiment is; Shorter Term - Bullish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Neutral I am going to list this as a "Short" because my target is still overall 3913ish, even though I foresee some upside before we head that way. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
1
Trends and Movements Heading into the WeekGreetings! Had a great time skiing up in Vermont, was nice to take a brief pause away from the market and enjoy the whole reason I trade for a living (more free time and flexibility). I'm back, and be prepared for a bit of a longer video as I catch things up. Trends; In terms of trends, we ran down along the 30m and 1hr trends to get here. While the 2hr was in a lower low, we've run well outside of any 2hr funnel, and we have also violated the 3hr/4hr/6hr higher low trends. While I had said last week I expected this, I think we now need to do some correcting before we can head too much lower. We've currently broke above a lower high 30m, and I foresee us moving to a 1hr uptrend that will also be a lower high. I'll be looking for an initial movement down from this uptrend signal, and may short briefly there, but ultimately I think we will break above that briefly to get a 2hr/3hr/4hr uptrend, before we finish a move back down. Price Target; My longer term price target of 3913 is still my expectation. It does appear that the resistance line along all the rallies of 2022 that we broke past, may have become a downsloping support line. If we are heading for 3913, and that slope continues to act as support, it appears we will get to 3913 at around March 14th (ish). From 3913, I could build up potential movements for either direction, so I won't provide either one, since that doesn't really give any real guidance. Economic Data; There is some housing and manufacturing data, as well as some overall economy data this week, but I don't know that any of it will be groundbreaking and since shockwaves through the market. As usual, the jobs data on Thursday will be watched, and there are several FOMC members giving speeches on Friday. Earnings; There are a few notable retailers this week, such as Target, Costco, and Lowes. I expect Lowes to be doing well, based on the same reasons I expected Home Depot to do well (I go into detail in the video again on this). I do think that the sentiment of Target and Costco could ripple through the market, as if they are struggling it may appear or give cause to think the general economy is weakening. Otherwise, there is Broadcom and SalesForce and some other decent sized companies this week, although I believe this week will mostly finish up Earnings season for us. My overall sentiment into today (from 3998 where we are now); Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral/Maybe slightly bearish Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Neutral Safe Trading! Remember your risk management plan! I'm going to mark this as "Short" because of my continued expectation we hit 3913, even if the short term I expect some potential upside.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader