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The FOMO Rally is slipping; Trends showing a mixed bagSo I still think we are going to head lower, though I expect a potential technical bounce here. I have some concerns that the 3hr/4hr/6hr are all higher lows, but at least at the moment we've broken below them so they aren't potential support lines going down. My next main target is the 12hr downtrend and how we react to that. Additionally, we have broken down below the daily uptrend entry point of 4084, although each time we got below that we rallied higher by the end of the day, so I suppose we will see where it takes us by the close. All in all, I still hope to hit that target range of 3913 with +\- 20 (mostly plus). I think the macro-economic situation supports that movement as well, and that this overzealous and excessively optimistic market rally is going to come to an end, though Bulls may fight it on the way down. Trends going into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4154 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4113 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4113 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4104 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4095 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4064 Downtrend (2/10/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Economic Data; Not much data, but there are more FOMC Members speaking today, even if they aren't voting members. Additionally, I recommend going back to listen to Fed Mester speak yesterday evening. Some fairly hawkish rhetoric coming out lately. Earnings; Deere did well apparently, and is currently up 3%. There isn't much else to report on the earnings front. I mention it in the video, but side note, I will likely be heading up to Ski in Vermount next week. Maybe not the whole week, but if we rally it is likely I'll cash out and close my position and enjoy the week off and the little bit of snow I can find on the East Coast of the US this Winter. My sentiment into today is; Shorter Term - Neutral/Bullish Short Term - Bearish/Neutral Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
1
CHFJPY I Short and bullish continuationWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **CHFJPY Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
24
Trends showing lower highs; forming a funnel down?So we are hitting a 2hr uptrend right here at 4114. This is going to be a lower high 2hr uptrend. We have already had a lower high 30m and 1hr uptrend signal also. Having cashed out on my last trade, I might look at anything around the 2hr uptrend if it closes up here and causes that signal, as a short position. However, I am also aware that tomorrow is CPI data. So I may just sit out until that data shows some direciton in the market. There is some discussion that CPI inflation data is going to come in higher with headline Month over Month data, and that even Core Month over Month will be flat. The market may not respond well to that information if that happens. All in all, the trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4143 Uptrend (2/10/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4100 Uptrend (2/10/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4105 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4092 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4093 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4064 Downtrend (2/10/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Earnings; Lots of earnings this week as it is still earnings season, but nothing major in terms of today. Economic Data; Not much for today; CPI data is tomorrow morning (EST). My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Neutral/Bearish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Neutral Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Bull Bear Power Void with a Killer Exit IndicatorWelcome to the coffee shop everybody and this is your host and baristo Eric. the bull bear power void has had a massive update since the last time I have been in the shop. So thanks for joining me on this one. THE BACKGROUND: I have recalculated the background to show you when you are looking for Longs and when you are looking for short trades. It's simple enough and the background is either red or green to tell you early that the trend has changed. just because the background color is red doesn't mean enter short it means that a retest is coming and a Divergence is about to complete. The same thing goes for green. when it changes to Green it means that a retest is coming or that I Divergence is about to complete and you trade into that direction. The light blue filter is called the Volume regression moving average. this does a really good job of telling you exactly what's happening with volume as it's moving along. it calculates against the highs and lows of the immediately closed volume bars so when you break a previous high or a previous low then you know you have broken a range and you have maintained a new structure. breaking a previous high or previous low also means that you can either trade to the long side or to the short side. This is just an added confirmation to layer into your background and your volume bar colors. VOLUME BAR COLORS. Speaking of the colors of the volume bars. I've changed them to make them a little bit more intuitive for people. Now it's really simple. if you have dark colors like dark green and dark red then you know volume is moving to the upside. if you have light colors like light green and light red volume is moving to the downside. These colors are irrelevant to the location of the bar meaning it doesn't matter if the bar is liked or dark color above zero or below zero. if you get a dark color below zero you're still moving up anyway because up is always up and down is always down. the short of it is dark colors mean long light colors mean short. The final Clincher of the updates to the bull bear power void is another filter using a hull moving average calculation. in this oscillator it's shown as a purple moving average. this does an excellent job of telling you when a pullback is over or a trend is over or a trend has lost its momentum. it is the final layer of Confluence to tell you that the move you were in is over or it's on pause. the bottom line is that this purple moving average is to be used as an exit indicator not an entry indicator. When the light blue and the purple moving averages cross each other above closing volume or below closing volume is when you have a strong move in the opposite direction. These two moving averages combined are always pushing volume away from it. as you watch your charts you'll notice that primarily volume will exist inside of these two moving averages in other words you will have these two moving averages at the bottom of your panel volume will exist above them and then the zero level would be there if this is the case you have an uptrend.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by CoffeeshopCrypto
15
The importance of looking at long term chartsThis is a Back-to-Basics video demonstrating the importance of looking at long term charts. This is a monthly chart of EUR/USD, which means every bar contains one month of trading data. Even for intraday traders it is important to know where the 'big' levels are and where the long-term trend for a market is. First level of note is the 61.8% retracement at .9620 of the entire move from 1985 to 2008, the market bounced from this zone in September 2022. The second thing I note is the importance of leaving previous trendlines on the chart. The one on here is the old uptrend drawn from 2000, connecting the 2017 and 2020 lows. This now comes in at 1.1025 and acted as superb resistance for the market recently. It has provoked quite an emphatic failure and it does suggest that the longer term trend for EUR/USD remains firmly down (bearish). Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
Short
by The_STA
2
Is the FOMO rally over? Pressures pushing the market lowerSo I'm sitting short from 4150 and still holding to see things go lower. Quick tidbit, the overnight plunge was likely spurred in some part by Russia reducing oil production by 500,000 barrels a day as punishment for sanctions. This is why oil prices spiked overnight also, although they've fallen back to under 1% (they were over 2% for a bit there). In terms of trends, we got a lower low on the 30m/1hr/2hr, and then we've started hitting the resistance of a higher low on the 3hr/4hr/6hr. Thus far it appears that the higher low of the 6hr could cause a momentary rally. I'm looking to see if it sticks and stays higher and then if it does I will cash out and wait and watch to see if we get an uptrend that is a lower high that we can use to swing down past it. The trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4143 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Lower Low 1Hr - 4134 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Lower Low 2Hr - 4105 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4092 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4093 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4064 Downtrend (2/10/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low I see us easily heading lower if we don't get up past the 4084 level of the Daily uptrend, at least to that 3900 level I have been calling for. Economic Data; We have some consumer confidence data today. I don't see it driving the market, but might at least pull us back to 0 if it is decent or confirm the lower movements if it is bad. Earnings; Not much today, like most Fridays. My sentiment for today is; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral/Bearish Medium Term - Bearish/Neutral Long Term - Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends show weakening, but market is overall flat; Look to JobsSo as I state in the video, I cashed my short out at 4148. Looking for another short to get into or just picking up where I left off at. We had a 30m/1hr trend down yesterday, and overnight we got a 30m/1hr trend up. The uptrends overnight were a lower high on the 30m and a higher high barely on the 1hr. We are currently below the 1hr but sitting above the 30m. Overall, I see the jobs data really driving this market back up to 4190 +\- 10 if it shows weakening, or sending us below 4100 if it shows a surprise strengthening. Currently expectations is that jobless numbers have increased from last week. The trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4159 Uptrend (2/9/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4167 Uptrend (2/9/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4166 Uptrend (2/7/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4090 Uptrend (1/31/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4142 Uptrend (2/1/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4045 Uptrend (1/23/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Economic Data; As I said, jobs data is today. That is the biggest data point to be priced in. Earnings; There are a few good earnings to watch I went over in the market. All have 'sell' signals according to some website, but I don't base any stock decisions off that website. On a technical level, there isn't much to keep us up in this area up or down. There also doesn't seem much to move us out of it. So we seem to have stalled yet again here in the mid 4100 range. My overall sentiment is; Shorter Term - Bearish Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Neutral Anyone else notice that the tags for certain things with the S&P aren't showing anymore? Weird. Anyways, safe trading! Remember your risk management plan
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
1
Is the buy the dip mentality back? Trends for 2/8/2023So I got into a short on the first peak, made profit on the dip and was stopped out on the reverse momentum. I didn't jump in right away on the next surge, but did grab another short overnight as I still believe we head down shortly. I do not trust this rally until I see a genuine lower leg that holds and we rally off of. Every potential dip was just bought up en masse, and I think we need to test some support levels before I trust that this market is trying to make the way back up past 4200/4300. Trends for today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4161 Downtrend (2/8/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4166 Uptrend (2/7/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4166 Uptrend (2/7/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4090 Uptrend (1/31/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4142 Uptrend (2/1/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4045 Uptrend (1/23/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low There is some brief area for us to spike up and hit the 6hr and 4hr trend lines, but I don't know that we do that with us having topped out the 1hr and 2hr already. The wide swings has really made the 30m unreliable for the moment. There is no major economic data today, though there are several Fed Speakers scheduled to give some insight. Earnings aside from Disney is going to be relatively smaller companies (for the S&P anyways). My sentiment for today is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Bearish/Neutral Long Term - Neutral Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
2
My Backtesting Results on NZDCHFHolding trades is what I want to get better at and backtesting is going to help me do it. I've backtested NZDCHF today and found that it was a remarkable session. I was able to enter 4 trades in the span of 3 months gaining over what would have been 15% from the trades, but one trade hit my break even point so I gained around 12% from my trades. I used the monthly, weekly, and daily timeframes with most of my entries coming from the daily timeframe. I used my own strategy known as TMP. It stands for Trend, Market Structure, Price Action(or, pending orders). I identify the trend first, then set my estimation zone, then place my pending order. In that order, thats it. I don't use support and resistance, trend lines, or indicators for the most part. I like using price action. Its my preference that has changed throughout my trading career. I've noticed I a few reasons why I don't enter my best setups are due it 1) Money trauma( family had poor money management) 2) Time limit( pressure from showing results) To get over those, I have set parameters to take partials, move my trades to break even, and set pending orders to eliminate myself not entering my own trades. This helps in the long run and has helped since collecting data on myself since the start of me using prop firms. I can only pray that through my backtesting and trading journey, this can help you too. Please let me know if you have questions regarding my backtesting or found something unique that helped you. Safe trading❤️
Education
by ShaquanLopez
1
After maxing out trends, we've started to see the downward moveSo I held my trade and walked away from the S&P for a bit to short the 6E (the Euro). It netted me about $3000 the last couple days, and that also gave me time to let my trade begin to form here. I closed out my 4140 short at just below 4110 yesterday, for a net profit of just over $1500. Certainly not the move I wanted, but the move I ended up with. I still believe ultimately that we will head lower to that 3900 range I've mentioned, but we need to move down below a daily higher high trendline before we can get there. The trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4120 Downtrend (2/7/2023) Lower Low 1Hr - 4143 Downtrend (2/3/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4113 Downtrend (2/6/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4090 Uptrend (1/31/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4142 Uptrend (2/1/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4045 Uptrend (1/23/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low I could see a brief bounce here, but nothing that will stick and I believe we are headed lower and will have another down day. I'm not ready yet to take another position at this point though. Economic Data; Fed Powell speaks today at 12:40 EST. There are a few other pieces of data but nothing I think might cause huge spikes in the market. The Jobs data from last Friday should be a clear signal that the labor market is entirely too strong and no rate cuts are coming. I'm waiting for the market to understand this and stop living in la la land. This rally reminds me of last summers rally. Earnings; I scroll through the Earnings of the day. There are still a decent amount of companies reporting, but none with the weight of last week. I do think some of the companies that had bizarre rallies will have the poor earnings and forward guidance really settle in this week and lose much of the momentum they had and come back to reality this week. Earnings overall have really not been very good, even though we've rallied through them. Overall my sentiment is; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral/Bearish Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Neutral Felt good to get away from the S&P for a couple of days. My risk management plan strictly states when I get frustrated I need to walk away. I did this by going to another asset to trade. You should remember your risk management plan as well. Safe trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
5
Usual take on the Market after an upsetting daySo, I'm short again at 4140, which is already looking as a potentially flawed trade, but we will see. With the 4hr closing at 4142, it certainly appears that trends are basically maxed to the upside. I was looking and I do think it is possible that the Weekly timeframe could get an uptrend close to here, so I might hold through past that and see what happens. All in all, I think the market is excessively over heated. I was live when the jobs data came out today and the jobs market is only getting tighter and has the potential to cause more issues, which is a huge issue for the FOMC as if wages begin to increase and go up again it will just reignite inflation and inflationary concerns. The trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4117 Uptrend (2/1/2023) Higher High 1Hr - 4055 Uptrend (1/31/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4071 Uptrend (1/31/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4090 Uptrend (1/31/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4142 Uptrend (2/1/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4045 Uptrend (1/23/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low As you can see everything is already in an up, so I'd expect at LEAST a 30m downtrend here today, though so far that seems nonexistent. I do think the Weekly could hit an uptrend soon, the monthly is likely no where near hitting a new trend at the moment and I don't normally track that because the monthly has only changed trend indicators 4 or 5 times in the history of the market. Economic Data; Jobs data, and it all came in hot except for the Challenger Job cuts. Allegedly there will be some layoffs coming. That wasn't reflected in the rest of the jobs data though as unemployment just continued downward even as the FOMC tries to fight growth. Earnings; Most of the big earnings are AMC. Apple, Amazon, and Google are all today. I forget the exact amount but those 3 companies hold somewhere major percentage of the S&P 500 just on their own. Only Microsoft and Tesla rival them. My sentiment remains unchanged for today, even if my position in the long term has gone full neutral; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Neutral Safe trading and remember your risk management
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Trends again nearly maxed... enjoying the rollercoaster yet?So I had said I believed we would have some upward movement yesterday, although it did go a about 40 points higher than I expected. However, with that level of upward movement, we are nearly maxed to the uptrends again, with just the 4hr waiting to hit, unless we are close to getting that Weekly back out of the downtrend pattern it recently went into. It does appear that Santa Claus came a month late into the market, as every dip has been followed with a "buy the dip" mentality and pushed us higher for the entire month. The Weekly bars are either full upward movements or spinning tops to show this sentiment. The trends going into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4043 Uptrend (1/31/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4055 Uptrend (1/31/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4071 Uptrend (1/31/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4090 Uptrend (1/31/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4020 Downtrend (1/30/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4045 Uptrend (1/23/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low If we are going to move further, I'd like to ultimately see that 12hr trend be corrected into a higher high and not a lower high movement, which could happen if we get that movement down to 3913 I am currently expecting. Economic Data; It is a Fed Day. There is also jobs data and PMI data today. All should cause movement in the market, though most eyes will be on Jerome Powell for forward guidance more than the rate hike. The rate hike is all but guaranteed to be 25bps. Earnings; Meta, T-Mobile, and Thermo Fischer are today, along with a slew of other companies. 20% of the S&P reports this week. Bigger names are coming tomorrow also. My sentiment into today is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral/Bearish Remember to trade safely and abide by your own risk management plan. Safe Trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
2
Trends call for a small bounce but more downside expectedSo I'm still sitting in the same trade, just waiting to see if things move downward past the 4000 level. I actually was watching the market when it was below 4010 and nearly decided to take profit at the moment and then evaluate again for another entry down. Unfortunate at this point I didn't but I do expect some more downside still. The trends however are being violated pretty significantly so I could definitely see an upward move here to gather more steam to head lower. Probably wait and see what the open brings us. Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4032 Downtrend (1/30/2023) Lower Low 1Hr - 4052 Downtrend (1/30/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4039 Downtrend (1/30/2023) Higher Low 3Hr - 4033 Downtrend (1/30/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4020 Downtrend (1/31/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4045 Uptrend (1/23/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Looking to see if we have continued momentum down from yesterday. Economic Data; For today we do have CB Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST. Earnings; Lots of earnings today. I'll be checking into a few of the BTOs here or there as things progress. My sentiment going into today is; Shorter Term - Neutral/slightly Bullish Short Term - Neutral/Bearish Medium Term - Bearish Long Term - Neutral/Bearish Trade safely and practice your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
3
The Bull and Bear scenarios; Trends into 1/30/2023So we got that Daily Uptrend signal, and have so far hit lower off of it. I foresee a move down to around 3913 as a retest to the low and then if we can rally above that, it could be a sustainable new bull market. My instincts tell me however that we won't sustain this push overall, fed by my concern over the weekly downtrend market signal we recently got. I hope we remain open minded though, and look to just trade what is happening rather than what could happen, and currently we do have a neutral market on the Daily and many of our other trends are in a strong uptrend direction. The trends going into this week are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4068 Downtrend (1/30/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4052 Downtrend (1/30/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 4037 Uptrend (1/25/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4037 Uptrend (1/25/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 3987 Uptrend (1/20/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4045 Uptrend (1/23/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Overall Monday is a bit slow. Economic Data is short as are Earnings. However... looking ahead; Wednesday Economic Data; FOMC Rate Hike and Powell Speech Thursday Earnings; Major Tech Earnings of Amazon, Apple, and Google. Both days should be quite a ride, so be prepared, trade safely, and remember your risk management plan. My sentiment into today is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish/Neutral Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
3
Trends closed in on that upside; Downside now in sightSo we got the upward movement I'd discussed yesterday. We did get a 30m downtrend yesterday but we bounced up and did in the end close higher as I had believed we would. I went short yesterday and am still sitting in that position now. I was concerned that good PCE data might cause us to spike upwards, but ultimately I don't see the PCE data as a good data point, and the lackluster of volume and movement off the data seems to reflect that at this point. Overall, I think this is where we begin to find a major swing down, potentially past the last Daily downtrend mark of 3810, though I don't foresee that coming as a straight shot, and I think the 12hr could set in at a higher low and cause some complications to that. The trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4030 Downtrend (1/26/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4018 Uptrend (1/25/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4037 Uptrend (1/25/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4037 Uptrend (1/25/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 3987 Uptrend (1/20/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4045 Uptrend (1/23/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 3810 Downtrend (12/28/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Economic Data; PCE and Personal Income/Spending. I go over both as those data points have come out in the video. Earnings; Not a lot of Earnings today, which is typical for a Friday. Overall my sentiment is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Bearish to Neutral Long Term - Bearish Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
3
Trends still allowing for upside before another down swingSo, again I believe that the market will have a harsh swing down coming, but yet again, I caution to wait for a good entry. While I didn't get to partake in yesterday's rally because I was stopped out before we went much lower than I expected, we did still get the upward movement that the trends called for. I could see some more upward movement up to around 4080 before we run out of steam and potentially head back down again. We are also very close to seeing a Daily Uptrend signal here which again would be a higher high Daily Uptrend signal (the first in over a year). Overall the trends for today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4016 Uptrend (1/25/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4018 Uptrend (1/25/2023) Higher High 2Hr - 4037 Uptrend (1/25/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4037 Uptrend (1/25/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 3987 Uptrend (1/20/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4045 Uptrend (1/23/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 3810 Downtrend (12/28/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low So as we can see the issue is we are maxing out ourselves in all uptrends again, however the uptrend of the 6hr is the one that would allow us to move upward without any issue. Economic Data; We have GDP and Jobs data today. I'll be watching both closely. Earnings; Again, it is Earnings season. Lots of Earnings today with special attention to VISA, as they may provide some insight into the overall health of the economy. My sentiment; Shorter Term - Neutral/Bullish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Bearish I will list this as a LONG position, as I think we end higher on the day overall, but be warned... I'm not committed to the position myself. Trade safely and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
4
Trends fulfilled some lower movement; Mixed signals aheadSo I exited my trade from yesterday for a profit just above $2000. That puts me at around $2800 for the week. I'm a bit unsure about our next movement. My instinct says we could head lower and have a total meltdown of a day, however, thus far each time we started to meltdown we immediately pulled back up and it has become apparent this 4000 zone is a battleground area. So that being said, I might just sit and watch. I've made my weekly quota, and many of the short and mid range timeframes I use are calling for more potential upside or at least upward bounces. The 12hr is the main timeframe demanding we head lower, but we are close to seeing a Daily uptrend signal as well, so... I'm not fully convinced with the remaining timeframes (besides the 30m now) calling for upward movement that the 12hr can move the market alone. Those trends going into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4004 Downtrend (1/25/2023) Lower Low 1Hr - 4013 Downtrend (1/24/2023) Higher Low 2Hr - 3972 Uptrend (1/20/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 3987 Uptrend (1/20/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 3987 Uptrend (1/20/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4045 Uptrend (1/23/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 3810 Downtrend (12/28/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low For Economic Data; Not much today. Some oil data but nothing I think will impact the S&P. Tomorrow will be a key date to watch with GDP and Jobs data. Earnings; Lots of Earnings. I scrolled through a few in the video, but if you want to see them all, I recommend just Googling S&P Earnings Calendar and going to FinScreener when it shows up or another website that outlines what companies are reporting since we are in Earnings season and there are so many. Overall my sentiment is; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral/Slight Bullish Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Bearish I'll mark this as a "Long" position only because I think from our current level we could find our way back up to around 4020ish or so. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
Still waiting for a downward swingSo after jumping out briefly yesterday I went back in short at 4029 this morning. We did get a 30m downtrend mark earlier this morning at 4027. We did not have a major bounce off of it, at least not yet. Currently I'll be looking for at least a 1hr downtrend mark, as the 1hr is in violation (it was in a lower high uptrend mark) so it would allow us to fix it. Overall though, if we do get that mark I may be holding out for more downside as we are also in violation of the 12hr lower high right now. The trends overall going into today are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4027 Downtrend (1/23/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 3947 Uptrend (1/20/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 3972 Uptrend (1/20/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 3987 Uptrend (1/20/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 3987 Uptrend (1/20/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4045 Uptrend (1/23/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 3810 Downtrend (12/28/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Overall a lot of the trends are looking upward, and we are probably close in an upward movement to get a Daily Uptrend. We have also broken that descending funnel from the high points of 2022, slightly higher than I would expect us to break it, and without the volume it takes to appear committed to the movement, so I expect that to take us downward also. On the Economic Data; Nothing too major. Some PMI data and sales stuff today. Earnings; LOTS of earnings. I'll be looking into JNJ and other heavy weights, and especially into Verizon as it is the first cellular company reporting in this Earnings season also and might set off a bit of a chain reaction into other companies in the same sector. Overall my sentiment is; Shorter Term - Bearish Short Term - Neutral/Bearish Medium Term - Neutral Long Term - Bearish with a hint of neutral
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
4