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Trendtrading

Friday was a flawless trend movement; Reversal setup beginningSo I had said that a perfect scenario to have a real rally, would include coming down low enough to grab the 6hr downtrend mark. I would have been satisfied with the 4hr, but again, had mentioned a perfect scenario would be that 6hr. Once we hit the 6hr, as expected it has gone a bit lower, but we have managed to flatten out and get above the trend line just a bit. There is a bit of a mix signal coming as the 1hr and 2hr are showing bullish, even with the 3hr and above still showing bearish. I expect some whipsaw action, with the first movement being upward to get at least a 1hr uptrend, which will be a lower high. I'd evaluate at that point where we might be going next. If you aren't interested in watching the video, trends are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3713 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low 1Hr - 3769 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low 2Hr - 3745 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 3677 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low 4Hr - 3714 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low 6Hr - 3759 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low 12Hr - 3814 Uptrend (10/06/2022) Lower High Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low I go over it in the video, but I do believe that ultimately we need to snag a weekly uptrend signal soon, as we've technically been oversold on a weekly uptrend since February of 2022. My current sentiment is; Short Term; Bullish Mid Term; Neutral/ Bullish Long Term; Bearish Safe Trading, and remember your Risk Management Plan
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader
4
2Hr Trend says Higher, 4Hr Trend Says Lower; Who will win?So we ended yesterday like we did Wednesday, with full on selling pressure. With that we got a 2Hr downtrend mark. I will likely continue to sit out of the market for the moment. With the 2hr beginning to show an uptrend, and the 4hr displaying it wants to continue the downtrend, I think the area in between is a clear No Go zone. Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3793 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low 1Hr - 3769 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low 2Hr - 3745 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low 3Hr - 3706 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 3745 Uptrend (10/04/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 3753 Uptrend (10/04/2022) Lower High 12Hr - 3814 Uptrend (10/06/2022) Lower High Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low All the hype of the day will be on watching Unemployment and Payroll, but remember that yesterday's jobless claim while starting us off with a mini rally, did not provide the relief anyone was looking for on a Fed Pivot. The same Fed Pivot that the Fed Speakers have said is NOT coming. Not that anyone will care about Unemployment next week with CPI data coming. However, if you're unaware, the belief that they are lying about the Pivot is based on the low credibility of the FOMC right now, coupled with the belief that if the US doesn't stop raising interest rates, it'll increase to the risk of a global financial crisis. Likewise, if you're curious as to why a 4%ish rate hike is considered high when they used to be so much higher on average... it is because we used to have 6% on a $10,000 purchase, but that same item now costs $30,000, and 4% of 30k is a lot more than 6% of 10k. So therein lies the issue. I actually think the biggest immediate threat to any potential rally isn't so much the market, but the geopolitical issues on the rise in various areas again. Will the US piss someone else off? Is Russia going to launch a tactical nuke into Ukraine to try and win the war? Will China move in on Taiwan? Is North Korea going to continue their shenanigans? Don't forget Europe is in a recession and has crisis level energy issues. Oh and OPEC+ is trimming production (that they weren't keeping up with anyways). Certainly not trying to be a doomsayer, but the issue is any potential rally out of this bear market has several issues outside of the direct US economy that could immediately put it at risk. My Sentiment is slightly changed; Short Term - Bearish Neutral (I still think we could hit 3700) Mid Term - Bullish Long Term - Bearish Neutral If you are trading in this, best wishes and remember your trading strategy and risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Shorter Timeframe Trends Battle the Longer Timeframe TrendsWe snagged the 12hr Uptrend I'd said I believed we were getting, and then did reverse (so far) off that as predicted. If you don't have time to watch the video, here are the trends; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3793 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low 1Hr - 3769 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low 2Hr - 3707 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High 3Hr - 3706 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 3745 Uptrend (10/04/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 3753 Uptrend (10/04/2022) Lower High 12Hr - 3814 Uptrend (10/06/2022) Lower High Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low As we can see, the 30m and 1hr are showing an overall uptrend. However, everything below them, sans Weekly, are in a downtrend. I still believe that overall we head back down to at least 3700ish, where we can try to collect the 4hr, or best case to 3650ish where we can get the 6hr, and then evaluate where things go from there. If we can snag the 4hr and 6hr, and then we rally, I'll be all for that being the bottom of this downtrend for 2022. Perhaps we hit new lows in 2023, but I'll worry about that in 2023. I will still be sitting out today. I don't trust this rally, but I also am having flashbacks of June/July when I attempted to trade into a bizarre rally using math and got burned pretty bad twice. While I recouped the two bad trades I made during that, I'd prefer to sit out while things are acting up and be ready to make a better entry when the signs truly come around, even if that takes me into next week. Earnings; I didn't run over Earnings today, they are the same I mentioned yesterday and are mostly irrelevant this week. Economic Data; I did check into Challenger Job Cuts, it does appear there was an increase in job cuts from last month to here, however last month was very low (4th lowest for the year), and I see very little market reaction on that data set. I was surprised at the increase in percentage, so I wanted to make sure I was reading it correctly, but yes, there was a dramatic increase in job cuts MoM and YoY, although it doesn't appear to be an aggressively high number overall when I looked at historical numbers. My main focus for today will be Jobless Claims coming up at 8:30am EST. Last month was one of the lowest jobless claims to date, so it is expected to go up a tiny amount. A surprise to one side or the other may send the market into a tizzy for the day. I am more interested however in Payrolls tomorrow, because I think it will be a better measure of where inflation is heading going into October. My Sentiment Continues to be; Short Term - Bearish Medium Term - Bullish Long Term - Bearish / Neutral Trade Safely! Remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
4
Trends are Overbought; But is it time to get back in?So as I make my living trading on trends, and trends are now mathematically so out of sync, I will likely be sitting out of the market today (and most likely tomorrow as well). Obviously I had called a rally as we closed Friday, but certainly did not expect it to be hitting at this level. You'll see in the video that the Daily descending line appears it is going to be a big deal at stopping this excessive momentum. I still think we head into the 3600s before any possible longer term rally begins. I do think we are going to have an overall rally in October. I know... I'm giving those mixed signals. Anyways, enjoy the video! If you don't feel like watching, the trends are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3767 Downtrend (10/05/2022) Higher Low 1Hr - 3668 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High 2Hr - 3707 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High 3Hr - 3706 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 3745 Uptrend (10/04/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 3753 Uptrend (10/04/2022) Lower High 12Hr - 3956 Downtrend (9/13/2022) Lower Low Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Earnings are mostly minor and irrelevant this week. Economic Data for the Day has Trade Balance data and more Manufacturing Data. There is also some NonFarm Employment Change but I'd consider that minor today against the Trade Balance and ISM stuff. Remember your risk management and trade safely. I am currently; Bearish on the Short Term Bullish on the Mid Term Bearish on the Long Term
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
2
IMPORTANT TO MOVE STOPS!! AUDUSD UPDATE (IN PROFIT)!This one playing out exactly as explained earlier as well as the other USD pairs I was looking at. I didn't take entry's on all pairs cause that would be exposing my account to to much risk from the same currency (USD). Price has now pushed down between consolidation range so I expect the support of 0.64500 to be tapped at the least (taking 30% profit on position), from there I expect a reaction but hoping to see this level break and create a new leg down..(long term). RISK MANAGMENT comes before anything!! Good luck traders hopefully everyone's having a good week so far!!
Short
by jamison_fx
1
Trends Reversing? I Expect some down before more UpIn the event you don't want to watch the video, here are the trends; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 3636 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High 1Hr - 3668 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High 2Hr - 3707 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High 3Hr - 3706 Uptrend (10/03/2022) Lower High 4Hr - 3745 Uptrend (10/04/2022) Lower High 6Hr - 3753 Uptrend (10/04/2022) Lower High 12Hr - 3956 Downtrend (9/13/2022) Lower Low Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low With so many of the recent ones being a lower high, I don't believe this rally will continue for the moment. I expect things to fizzle out here and drop back down to at LEAST 3700, more likely 3660, with a chance at 3625. I go over how I'd want to see these trends begin to form in the video if we are truly going up, and basically I'd gear up for a likely volatile week ahead. On the Economic Data front for today; Watch the JOLTs Job Data mostly for today. It SHOULD be lower than the previous reading, as it is based off of AUGUST data, not even September, and we have some data on August to base that estimate off of. Long Term (Where we go over the next quarter) - I am Bearish Medium Term (From where we go in the next week or so) - I am Bullish Short Term (From where we are) - I am Bearish Side Note - Geopolitical Issues continue to rise. If you didn't hear, North Korea shot a rocket over Japan. Any rally is at extreme risk if geopolitical issues continue to increase.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
AUDNZD Buy from Support +70 PipsWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **AUDNZD - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
1
Trendline Trades w Heikin Ashi Algo Oscillator + a surpriseWelcome to the coffee shop everyone. This is your host and Barista Eric. This podcast is designed to teach you The right and wrong way to get in and out of your trades because I'm not just going to tell you the right way, I'll also show you the things that you should not do. It's also a platform where I can release my versions of popular indicators. I'll show you how to use them and of course from time to time I will call out really bad strategies because I don't want you guys to have that information. feel free to share this content anywhere you choose online and of course do not fall for scams because I will not contact you for any type of currencies lending or any financial help in any way online. That being said, if you see me on the street and you want to give me a dollar all the power to you I'll be more than happy to accept it. Also don't get worried if I do send you a message it's usually just a thank you for starting to follow me because everyone that follows me I do have to follow them back so that I can see what you have going on. All that being said in today's video I am going to show you how to draw trend lines and channels using the support and resistance Indications in Heikin Ashi Algo Oscillator. Now you may not have this oscillator on your charts yet but for now you can use the CSC-HARSI. here is a link to get that from tradingview and add it to your chart So let's go to Tradingview and open it up on your desktop or on your phone. go to the indicators tab type in coffee shop crypto there you will find only one indicator called the CoffeeshopCrypto HARSI 2022 Go ahead and add that to your chart and make sure it's added to your favorites Now in its default settings that should work just fine for you because the default settings allow you to use the VWAP as a moving average against your RSI. This particular tutorial I'm picking off the resistance indication that came up and then it was followed by several support indications. This simply means that resistance was going against your price the Bears were pushing against the Bulls so prices moved up and met resistance and it was being pushed back down. Take care to watch the whole video for the strategy on how to use this with Trend Lines. SURPRISE. I am releasing the Heikin Ashi Algo OScillator later today as is. And you can use it with some of the indications that are available. I think it's time I release it and stop trying to be so perfect with it. It will have the S/R/ levels Aerts to exit your short or long position Range signals - To tell you when you have entered into a RANGE Bulls / Bears Rejection Signals - Letting you know its a STRONG rejection of the current bullish or bearish trend. Double Stochastic Strategy - A video will be created on how to use this on a later date. I'm also leaving the double stack castic strategy in there but you may not know how to use it just yet and I will create a video on that on a later date so in the meantime when you see it you could just turn it off if you want to. Alerts for Exit Short and Exit Long - these messages will be sent to your phone, email and desktop to let you know you should exit your current trade of Long or Short.
Education
by CoffeeshopCrypto
7
EURNZD Pullback and Move Up to ResistanceWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **EURNZD - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
4
Double Top Or Higher High? What Do You See?Double tops and higher highs can be synonymous to some traders. I believe that is ok, but they both speak to different Technical Analysis. A trader who trades may not recognize the higher high as following the trend, but rejection. Where as a trader who trades higher highs may see the high as buyers pushing the market higher and will wait for a pullback. I created this video to speak to the technical side of both based on a students price chart. He is doing an amazing job simplifying is trading strategy and I loved his POV. Let me shout out my community Trade On Purpose(recently known as Swing Trader Society). You guys are awesome and I'm grateful y'all allow me to help. Let me know in the comment section below. What do you see, a double top or a double bottom.
Long
by ShaquanLopez
1
Where are commodities heading to? Beyond 2022Where are the meat or commodity prices heading? Meat prices have been rising at a rate of about 3% per annual over the last 40 years. Meat is what I classified as an edible commodity, so is corn, wheat and rice. And as these commodities start picking up in prices, they are the one that will give the central banks a huge headache and to consider to hike its interest rates than the other commodities in the CPI basket. Why is this so? In short, people can still live with some inconvenience without cars or petrol, but not without food. Therefore, there is an urgency for the policy makers to first take care of the basic needs of the people. Content: . Long-term direction of Live Cattle . Trading ideas . Investing ideas Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. A little hack here to project the coming CPI data and also to know how aggressive the Fed will be with interest rate hike - you may consider to track the development of these edible commodity prices, if it is still trending up, we should be expecting a higher CPI and interest rates. Example on Live Cattle Futures: 0.025cts = US$10 0.10cts = US$40 145.00 = 1450 x US$40 = US$58,000 From 144 to 145 = US$400
CME:LE1!
by konhow
9
EURAUD New rising trend line + 200 PipsWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **EURAUD - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
2
AUDCAD I Your Next Scalp, Intraday, and Swing MoveWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **AUDCAD - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
3
GBPAUD Market Structure SHORT Set Up!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **GBPAUD - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
4
AUDCAD it will rise to the middle of the channel Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **AUDCAD - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
EURCHF 4 Hr. Intraday Short Set Up!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **EURCHF - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
1