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Moving Averages

MA on BTC 🚀💣How to use moving averages!!! A moving average is used to help us forecast future prices and help us identify a trend. By looking at the slope of the moving average, we can better determine the potential direction of market prices 📈⁣ There are two types of moving averages✌🏼⁣ 🔵Simple MA⁣ 🔴Exponential MA⁣ With the use of SMAs we can identify if a pair is trending up, trending down or ranging. The one problem with SMAs is that they are susceptible to spikes. Signals can be false.⁣ EMA’s let’s traders know what is happening in more recent price action.⁣ Disadvanrege of using EMAs is that consolidation periods can present fakeouts The best use MAs in conjunction to eachother. Wait for crosses and use the MAs as a confirmation before enter into deal GOOD LUCK🧡⁣
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by RocketBomb
12
What Are These Moving Averages?Moving averages rely on past data, they are considered to be lagging or trend following indicators. Regardless, they still have great power to cut through the noise and help determine where a market may be heading. Different types of moving averages There are various different types of moving averages that can be used by traders. Despite the various types, the MAs are most commonly broken down into two separate categories: simple moving averages (SMA) and exponential moving averages (EMA). Depending on the market and desired outcome, traders can choose which indicator will most likely benefit their setup. The simple moving average The SMA takes data from a set period of time and produces the average price of that security for the data set. The difference between an SMA and a basic average of the past prices is that with SMA, as soon as a new data set is entered, the oldest data set is ignored. So if the simple moving average calculates the mean based on 10 days worth of data, the entire data set is constantly being updated to only include the last 10 days. It's important to note that all data inputs in an SMA are weighted equally, regardless of how recently they were inputted. Traders who believe that there's more relevance to the newest data available often state that the equal weighting of the SMA is detrimental to the technical analysis. The exponential moving average (EMA) was created to address this problem. The exponential moving average EMAs are similar to SMAs in that they provide technical analysis based on past price changes. Nevertheless, the equation is a bit more complicated because an EMA assigns more weight and value to the most recent price inputs. Although both averages have value and are widely used, the EMA is more responsive to sudden price fluctuations and reversals. Cause EMAs are more likely to project price reversals faster than SMAs, they are often especially preferred by traders who are interested in short-term trading. It is important for a trader or investor to choose the type of moving average according to his personal strategies and goals, adjusting the settings accordingly. MAs of 50, 100, and 200 days are the most commonly used. How to trade with MA? Generally, a rising MA suggests an upward trend(acts as a support when rising under a price) and a falling MA indicates a downtrend(acts as resistance when falling above a price). Though, a moving average alone is not a really reliable and strong indicator. Therefore, MAs are constantly used in combination to spot bullish and bearish crossover signals. A crossover signal is created when two different MAs crossover in a chart. A bullish crossover (also known as a golden cross) happens when the short-term MA crosses above a long-term one, suggesting the start of an upward trend. In contrast, a bearish crossover (or death cross) happens when a short-term MA crosses below a long-term moving average, which indicates the beginning of a downtrend. One major downside of MAs is their delay time. Since MAs are lagging indicators that consider previous price action, the signals are often too late. For example, a bullish crossover may suggest a buy, but it may only happen after a significant rise in price. This suggests that even if the uptrend continues, potential profit may have been lost in that period between the rise in price and the crossover signal. Or even worse, a false golden cross signal may lead a trader to buy the local top just before a price drop. These fake buy signals are usually referred to as a bull trap. To put it all in a nutshell, Moving Averages are powerful TA indicators and one of the most widely used. The ability to analyze market trends in a data-driven way provides great penetration into how a market is performing. Remember that MAs and crossover signals should not be used alone and it is always more reliable to combine different TA indicators in order to avoid fake signals. Best regards EXCAVO
Education
by EXCAVO
11
Divergence in BTCUSDPrice while approaches its resistance level, is forming a divergence with MACD. Price is creating higher highs and MACD is forming lower highs. That means BTCUSD is losing its momentum. On the other hand there are confluence of sell orders in that resistance level. Therefore it probably can't break that level and goes down. But that's not enough for us. we need to catch a strong down move. What if it didn't breaks that level, but create a trading range around that resistance level? We do NOT want that. So we need evidence that shows us the price had reverse its move and is forming a downtrend. That evidence is our TRIGGER. The trigger could be break of a trend line, a candlestick pattern, or anything that shows we're entering a downtrend move. I used breakout of a trend line here. And for take profit, I used an 20 EMA as a trailing stop loss. Thanks for reading. Write your opinion in the comments.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Trading-with-Ali
2
Moving Averages Crossover Divergence Masterclass Part 2Moving Averages Crossover Divergence Masterclass Part 2 In the previous masterclass, we saw two different ways of using MACD as an indicator. In Part 2, we'll look out for two other ways to use MACD along with other indicators. The two previous ways were: 1. Centreline Crossover 2. Signal-line Crossover Moving forward the two more ways are: 3. MACD + Awesome Oscillator: Awesome Oscillator - Bill William's Awesome Oscillator It is a momentum oscillator Calculated by subtracting 34-period SMA from 5-period SMA plotted through bar-midpoint (H+L/2) Clearly shows what is happening to the market driving force Bullish Scenario- Awesome Oscillator is greater than 0; If AO is moving up bullish trend is strengthening while if AO is moving down bullish trend is weakening Bearish Scenario- Awesome Oscillator is less than 0; If AO is moving down bearish trend is strengthening while if AO is moving up bearish trend is weakening Awesome Oscillator defined the predominant trend while MACD Signal line crossover(as discussed in Masterclass Part 1) is used to generate the trade signal. Thus BUY when AO >0 and MACD crosses up the signal line, while SELL when AO <0 and MACD crosses below the signal line To prevent fake signals, a stop loss can be set-up at the low for the entry candle. 4. MACD + Stochastic: Stochastic Indicator - Momentum Indicator Compares a particular closing price to a range of its prices over a certain period of time Just like MACD, it has faster and slower moving metrics Slow Stochastic Indicator (%K) = (C - L14)/(H14 - L14)*100 Fast Stochastic Indicator (%D) = 3 - period moving average of %K Bullish Scenario- Stochastic Indicator < 20 i.e. oversold condition; market trading upward, prices will close near the high Bearish Scenario- Stochastic Indicator > 80 i.e. overbought condition; market trading downward, prices will close near the low MACD Centerline Crossover(as discussed in Masterclass Part 1) defines the predominant trend while the Stochastic Indicator (%K) is used to generate the trade signal. Thus BUY when MACD > 0 and Stochastic Oscillator < 20, while SELL when MACD <0 and Stochastic Oscillator >80 Trade signals can also be generated using crossovers of %K and %D for the Stochastic Oscillator. A lot more interesting things can be done using MACD, but we'll move to the next indicator in our next Masterclass. STAY TUNED ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Your questions and comments are most welcome. If you find the post useful, please like, share, and follow to make sure that you get more information once I publish it. - Mudrex
Education
by Mudrex
6
MA 10 50 Double Crossing perfectly shown on BTCUSDT DailyReference: Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by John Murphy. Moving Averages are one of the very useful trend-following tools. But I would like to elaborate more on the meaning of the term " trend-following": It indicates the tools which does not provide us with specific price targets, but it shows us if a specific up- or downtrend are in action. By means of such tools, we detect these trends and simply jump on the trend and take profit. Regardless of other technical tools which unfold price objectives, obviously, the amount of the profit depends heavily on your mentality and the control you have on your feeling of greed and fear :) 2 very fast notes on Moving Averages: 1- They perform poorly in sideway situation (when price move in a horizontal channel) 2- Signals are: i. when prices close below the MA----> sell ii. when prices close above the MA----> buy iii. when lower degree MA crosses above the MA of higher degree---> buy iiii. when lower degree MA crosses below the MA of higher degree---> sell Important MA pairs to see the double crossing daily timeframe: 5 & 20 / 10 & 50 MAs for triple crossing: 4 & 9& 18 ENJOY your TRADEs
Education
by Cryptestan
2
Moving Averages Crossover Masterclass Part 1Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Created by Gerald Appel It was designed in order to reveal changes in the direction, strength, momentum, and duration of a trend in a stock’s price It is a trend-following momentum indicator which shows the relationship between two moving averages of a stock’s price As the name suggests, MACD is all about the convergence and divergence of two moving averages Convergence occurs when the moving averages move towards each other while Divergence occurs when the moving averages move away from each other Three main components of MACD Calculation: MACD line, Signal line, and MACD Histogram MACD line – Calculated by subtracting 26-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) from 12-day EMA. Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is a type of moving average which places a greater weightage on the recent data points when compared to the past data points, making it react more significantly than a simple moving average. Signal line – 9-day EMA of the MACD line is called the signal line Histogram – Histogram is the graphical distance between MACD and the signal line, height used to assess how strong the price is moving in the given direction There are three main parameters of MACD as a whole: Look-back period of long term EMA to be formulated for MACD Look-back period of short term EMA to be formulated for MACD Look-back period of EMA to be formulated for signal line calculation There are many ways MACD can be used to formulate trading strategy, out of which we will be discussing two in this post: 1. Centerline Crossover Centerline: Zero lines above and below which the MACD line oscillates, diving the canvas in bullish and bearish regions Bullish Crossover when MACD line moves above zero i.e. 12-EMA crosses up 26-EMA Bearish Crossover when MACD line moves below zero i.e. 12-EMA crosses down 26-EMA Signal Generation BUY when MACD crosses up 0 while SELL when MACD crosses down 0 2. Signal line crossover The signal line is 9-day EMA of MACD that means it trails the MACD thereby indicating momentum changes in convergence-divergence Bullish crossover when MACD turns up and crosses above the signal line Bearish crossover when MACD turns down and crosses below the signal line Signal Generation BUY when MACD crosses up the signal line and SELL when MACD crosses down the signal line A lot more interesting things can be done using MACD, about which we'll be talking in the next Masterclass on MACD. STAY TUNED! ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Your questions and comments are most welcome. If you find the post useful, please like, share, and follow to make sure that you get more information once published. - Mudrex
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDEducation
by Mudrex
21
Why I don't use MA/EMA indicators in my analysis Hello everyone: In this video, I am going to explain my reasonings on why I personally don't use MA/EMA in my analysis. I will start off by saying that I have nothing against traders who use them and are consistent and profitable. I am sure there are many who do use indicators in their analysis along with their trading plan, risk management that find success in trading in given marker conditions. For me, my trading style focuses on price action structures/patterns. I am analyzing the market in its pure form of movement. In order for me to be clear on the price action, I need to “remove” all sorts of other “noise” on the chart. This is when having MA/EMA, and other common indicators can create potential issues for my style of trading. When we have indicators on the chart, it normally does help traders to identify “trending” markets, overbought/sold, as an example. The most used ones such as MA/EMA are going to help traders to find trends of continuations, but it doesn't necessarily become a target or support/resistance for the price to bounce off. Many find trading through such an “area” would be not ideal, hence they can take profit or target that general area. While, some can use that as a stop loss area, so long the price will “reverse” from it. However, when I see the price action on the HTF is in the impulsive phrase of the market conditions, on the LTF the indicators will not “catch up” to the most current price conditions. As the indicators are calculated based on the price movement, and since an impulse pushes up/down the price very aggressively, it takes time for them to take the movement into its equations and move according to it. The important thing is to not “overload” your chart with too many indicators and lines going across. There will be too many “contradicting” biases and it will confuse you as a trader. Simplicity is best, and less is more. Thank you
Education
by jojofang0901
12
Ma144 and MACD are the Holy Grail of tradersThe most important one is ma144. Ma144 allows you to abandon your self-consciousness and accept that the dumbest way is the best way: 1. When ma144 began to turn up, the price was pushed back to touch the line for the first time. 2. When ma144 starts to turn down and the price picks up for the first time, it is short when it hits the line. 3. When ma144 is in a flat state, it is not appropriate to make too much speculation. However, what needs to be noted here is that the novice should not try the second and third hitting the line, because the possibility of reversing changes is higher and higher, and the risk is also increasing. If the red and green column of MACD is used to go to pingkong or pingduo, the effect is better
Education
by WSBChairman
1
A filtered MACD strategy on the 1 hour chartA 1 hour chart strategy. Presented to you. When: - The price is above the 4 hours 100-EMA - The MACD & Signal(5) lines are below zero - The MACD (blue) crosses above the Signal (red) line We buy When: - The price is below the 4 hours 100-EMA - The MACD & Signal(5) lines are above zero - The MACD (blue) crosses below the Signal (red) line We sell To keep in mind: Specific to EURUSD (but it's almost the same thing with most major pairs that all have the same average true ranges): Stops are supposed to range from 15 to 40 points, with targets 30 to 80. The daily ATR ranging from 50 to 150 points. Anything below 30 pts target is starting to be too small and above 80 points it is too big we're not thinking intraday here. A quick backtest on EURUSD And that's already 21 trades for the EURUSD with a winrate of 52.4%, plus the title 5 setups that were a bit cherry picked I won't lie. I didn't even cherry pick them I got lucky on my first try (I thought I was continuing my backtest in July 2017 didn't realize it was on 2020) but I wouldn't expect an 80% winrate in general. EURUSD: 11 Wins. 10 Loss. 1:2 risk to reward. 52.4% winrate. Next is GBPUSD And here is another batch of 21 which is a good sample size. GBPUSD: 12 Wins. 9 Loss. 1:2 risk to reward. 57.1% winrate. It is important to zoom out (I know no one does it). A look at the daily chart. Just going to check quickly because it is getting boring. Should have taken the 5 minutes to make a script to filter this but I'm in too deep to go back now. And I just noticed I have been backtesting GBPUSD with the 200 EMA. Well nevermind, it is the same thing. Result wouldn't change much. And here I made the whole box. 12 Wins 19 Loss. Still a winrate of 38.7%. I can go for worse ones How about the recent EURUSD price action? 37.5% winrate If you think it gets immediatly better, here are the next ones: The findings: - When the conditions are good it won 55% of the time - When the conditions are average it won 38% of the time - When the conditions are bad (range plenty of false trends) it won 10% of the time With a RR of 2 the breakeven winrate is 33.33% But we have to include spreads. This strategy goes a bit further than "day trading" so stops and targets are quite wide. The typical stop/target is something like 25/50 (for EURUSD), the spread is 1 point. Other pairs of course are a bit more expensive. 50/25 = 2 49/26 = 1.88 breakeven winrate = 34.72% (10+38+55)/3 = 34.33% 🤔 ... Interesting coincidence... If the risk reward on average is of 1.88 and the winrate is 38% then the profit factor is 38*1.88/62 = 1.15 which is not very high but if the strategy takes a whole lot of small trades it is ok. The few cases I looked at prove nothing, this might have a blind winrate of 50%, 20%, or 33.33% (most likely). I don't know how to backtest with tools maybe I should learn so I can clic and let it execute for me... Stay tuned for a tutorial! :D You would have to execute this strategy when you think the price will trend. But not a very strong trend or there will never be a signal. An average or weak one, or something that contains trends, like what I have shown and backtested 3 times. So this means you'd still have to make a directional bet. There is no escape. Sorry no magic trick to avoid it. A directional bet on the price or on the volatility itself, the trends... Once you make your directional bet, what is the advantage of day trading with a macd strategy over just taking the trade and holding? The power of compounding. Here someone made a backtest on the daily chart for the S&P500, the strategy took 500 trades with a profit factor of 1.2 and returned 95%! Without counting any spread/commissions. And just holding the S&P during the same period returned 151%. Amazing. Then what is it that gets compounded with technical day trading? Easy. Losses & costs. Also causes to miss out when right about the direction. Lots of inconvenients, and no advantages. Sounds amazing. The power of COMPOUNDING™. Ye I'm not sold. There might be a tiny edge but it's just so worthless. Picking pennies... Got to imagine the amount of desperation to make any profit anyone would have to try that. And they'd probably end up losing. Why did I waste my time?
Education
by MrRenev
5
The market does NOT care about your target.DISCLAIMER: Trading Forex involves risk and you may lose more money than you started with! These posts are not to be taken as trade recommendations or financial advice and I offer NO guarantee that any of these ideas will result in profit. Also, trade ideas may change, depending on ever-changing market conditions. You are trading at your own risk and past performance is NOT indicative of future results. Please, know how much you are willing to risk on EVERY trade that you take and be SMART! Simplify your trading. Always measure your risk and be okay with being wrong ; ) Wait patiently and get the price that you want. Use the market. Don't let the market use you.
Education
by Simple_Renko
2
GBPCHF EMA's RIBBON strategy Simple and effectiveGBPCHF Price has broadly moved above the EMA's ribbon its one of the easy method to predict the trend on September 08 the price felled below the ribbon and the selling happened rapidly. Whenever the ribbon is constricted the trend going to reverse and if the ribbon is widen enough still the upside/Downside momentum is intact In GBPCHF the ribbon was turned upside and its showing some sign of bullish trend. The price trading around 50% Fibonacci level. We can expect short term downward play before the bullish run. Series of bullish candles are formed n H4 timeframe The swing target would be 1.20500. Stop lose may placed below the 38.2% Fibonacci level If you like our work give us a thumbs up. Donating via tradingview coins will make us to provide more valuable ideas
Education
by forexorbit
Ichimoku Cloud Indicator MasterclassIchimoku Cloud Ichimoku Cloud is a set of technical Indicators that show support and resistance levels, momentum as well as trend direction which is done by taking into consideration multiple averages and plotting them over the chart. It is composed of 5 lines, 2 of which compose a cloud where the difference between the two lines is shaded in where the price may find support or resistance. The 5 lines include, a 9-period average (conversion line), 26-period average (baseline), an average of those 9-period and 26-period averages (Leading Span A), a 52-period average (Leading Span B) and a lagging closing price line (Lagging Span) There are different ways to interprate the Indicator: Ichimoku Cloud The cloud is the most prominent feature of the Ichimoku Cloud plots. The leading Span A moves faster than the Leading Span B as Leading Span A, the average of conversion line (9-period average), and base line (26-period average) while Leading Span B, 52-period average making the shorter moving average more sensitive and faster than longer moving averages. The price is above the cloud indicates an uptrend and it is strengthened when the Leading Span A is moving above and rising from Leading Span B, similar for downtrend. Ichimoku Crossover For the crossover strategy there will be use of Conversion Line (9-period moving average) and Base Line (26-period moving average). The crossover line takes lesser data points into consideration and reacts to the price more quickly while the baseline considers more data points tending it away from the market price thereby making the reactions slower. Therefore, for Ichimoku crossover a buy signal is generated when the conversion line moves above the base line and sell when the conversion line drops back below the base line. Price-Baseline Trend As the price moves down below the Base Line representing a short-term oversold situation within a bigger uptrend with the pull back ending when the price moved back above the Base Line to trigger Bullish signal while as the price moves above the Base Line representing a short-term overbought region within a bigger downtrend with the bounce ending when the price moved back below the Base Line trigger to a Bearish signal. Ichimoku + RSI The Oscillator indicator is RSI and the moving average is Ichimoku in which we’ll be using RSI to give signal i.e. the signal chart while Ichimoku will provide with the trend i.e. the trend chart. Buy when Leading Span A is above Leading Span B, and the value of RSI crosses up 30 and sell when Leading Span A is below Leading Span B along with the value of RSI crosses below 70. Few Limitations of Ichimoku Cloud Can make chart complex and distracting There are few points plotted in future which might go in vain May become irrelevant for long period of time as price remains way above or way below the cloud Different signals from different elements making it a bit confusing ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Your questions and comments are most welcome. If you find the post useful, please like, share and follow to make sure that you get more information once I publish it. - Mudrex
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mudrex
13
Risk:Reward - Utilize the lower time frame charts!DISCLAIMER: Trading Forex involves risk and you may lose more money than you started with! These posts are not to be taken as trade recommendations or financial advice and I offer NO guarantee that any of these ideas will result in profit. Also, trade ideas may change, depending on ever-changing market conditions. You are trading at your own risk and past performance is NOT indicative of future results. Please, know how much you are willing to risk on EVERY trade that you take and be SMART! Simplify your trading. Always measure your risk and be okay with being wrong ; ) Wait patiently and get the price that you want. Use the market. Don't let the market use you.
Education
by Simple_Renko
4
📖 How to trade MA?Hello! MA — moving average. 📌 This indicator shows the price average value over a certain period and gives the trend direction. 🔷 For global analysis and understanding the price movement direction we have to use short, medium and long MAs mainly on long time frames. 🔷 MAs may act as an additional support and resistance level. It is worth trading taking into account MAs in the confident reversal patterns presence only, using MAs as an additional strong indicator, but not relying on it only! 🔷 Another important tool is the crosses formed by moving averages. We're talking about the golden cross and the death cross. This is an extremely strong pattern respected in classical markets, but cryptocurrency market traders rarely take it into account at all. 90% probability the cross provokes a strong subsequent trend and dynamic price movement. ⚠️ Important! The cross should closely interact with the price (be next to), but not much higher or lower on the chart! Otherwise, it may not even be considered. Examine the older time frames (from the day). Short crosses also work In the cryptocurrency trading, unlike the classics trading, for example 7MA / 30MA or 30MA / 50MA. ❗️ Remember that MA is an additional strategy factor in favour of one or another decision made. Do not trade relying on MAs only!
Education
by I.T.Analytics
11
Analysis: Using the McGinley, Hull and Renkos together!DISCLAIMER: Trading Forex involves risk and you may lose more money than you started with! These posts are not to be taken as trade recommendations or financial advice and I offer NO guarantee that any of these ideas will result in profit. Also, trade ideas may change, depending on ever-changing market conditions. You are trading at your own risk and past performance is NOT indicative of future results. Please, know how much you are willing to risk on EVERY trade that you take and be SMART! Simplify your trading. Always measure your risk and be okay with being wrong ; ) Wait patiently and get the price that you want. Use the market. Don't let the market use you.
OANDA:SPX500USDEducation
by Simple_Renko
EURJPY - Using indicators to make a sound decision on directionDISCLAIMER: Trading Forex involves risk and you may lose more money than you started with! These posts are not to be taken as trade recommendations or financial advice and I offer NO guarantee that any of these ideas will result in profit. Also, trade ideas may change, depending on ever-changing market conditions. You are trading at your own risk and past performance is NOT indicative of future results. Please, know how much you are willing to risk on EVERY trade that you take and be SMART! Simplify your trading. Always measure your risk and be okay with being wrong ; ) Wait patiently and get the price that you want. Use the market. Don't let the market use you.
Education
by Simple_Renko
Evolution of MACDMoving Average Convergence Divergence – MACD The most popular indicator used in technical analysis, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD), created by Gerald Appel. MACD is a trend-following momentum indicator, designed to reveal changes in the strength, direction, momentum, and duration of a trend in a financial instrument’s price Historical evolution of MACD, - Gerald Appel created the MACD line, - Thomas Aspray added the histogram feature to MACD - Giorgos E. Siligardos created a leader of MACD MACD employs two Moving Averages of varying lengths (which are lagging indicators) to identify trend direction and duration. Then, MACD takes the difference in values between those two Moving Averages (MACD Line) and an EMA of those Moving Averages (Signal Line) and plots that difference between the two lines as a histogram which oscillates above and below a center Zero Line. The histogram is used as a good indication of a security's momentum. Mathematically expressed as; macd = ma(source, fast_length) – ma(source, slow_length) signal = ma(macd, signal_length) histogram = macd – signal where exponential moving average (ema) is in common use as a moving average (ma) fast_length = 12 slow_length = 26 signal_length = 9 The MACD indicator is typically good for identifying three types of basic signals; Signal Line Crossovers A Signal Line Crossover is the most common signal produced by the MACD. On the occasions where the MACD Line crosses above or below the Signal Line, that can signify a potentially strong move. The standard interpretation of such an event is a recommendation to buy if the MACD line crosses up through the Signal Line (a "bullish" crossover), or to sell if it crosses down through the Signal Line (a "bearish" crossover). These events are taken as indications that the trend in the financial instrument is about to accelerate in the direction of the crossover. Zero Line Crossovers Zero Line Crossovers occur when the MACD Line crossed the Zero Line and either becomes positive (above 0) or negative (below 0). A change from positive to negative MACD is interpreted as "bearish", and from negative to positive as "bullish". Zero crossovers provide evidence of a change in the direction of a trend but less confirmation of its momentum than a signal line crossover Divergence Divergence is another signal created by the MACD. Simply, divergence occurs when the MACD and actual price are not in agreement. A "positive divergence" or "bullish divergence" occurs when the price makes a new low but the MACD does not confirm with a new low of its own. A "negative divergence" or "bearish divergence" occurs when the price makes a new high but the MACD does not confirm with a new high of its own. A divergence with respect to price may occur on the MACD line and/or the MACD Histogram Moving Average Crossovers , another hidden signal that MACD Indicator identifies Many traders will watch for a short-term moving average to cross above a longer-term moving average and use this to signal increasing upward momentum. This bullish crossover suggests that the price has recently been rising at a faster rate than it has in the past, so it is a common technical buy sign. Conversely, a short-term moving average crossing below a longer-term average is used to illustrate that the asset's price has been moving downward at a faster rate and that it may be a good time to sell. Moving Average Crossovers in reality is Zero Line Crossovers, the value of the MACD indicator is equal to zero each time the two moving averages cross over each other. For easy interpretation by trades, Zero Line Crossovers are simply described as positive or negative MACD False signals Like any forecasting algorithm, the MACD can generate false signals. A false positive, for example, would be a bullish crossover followed by a sudden decline in a financial instrument. A false negative would be a situation where there is bearish crossover, yet the financial instrument accelerated suddenly upwards What is “MACD-X” and Why it is “More Than MACD” In its simples form, MACD-X implements variety of different calculation techniques applied to obtain MACD Line, ability to use of variety of different sources, including Volume related sources, and can be plotted along with MACD in the same window and all those features are available and presented within a single indicator, MACD-X Different calculation techniques lead to different values for MACD Line, as will further discuss below, and as a consequence the signal line and the histogram values will differentiate accordingly. Mathematical calculation of both signal line and the histogram remain the same. Main features of MACD-X ; 1- Introduces different proven techniques applied on MACD calculation, such as MACD-Histogram, MACD-Leader and MACD-Source, besides the traditional MACD (MACD-TRADITIONAL) • MACD-Traditional, by Gerald Appel It is the MACD that we know, stated as traditional just to avoid confusion with other techniques used with this study • MACD-Histogram, by Thomas Aspray The MACD-Histogram measures the distance between MACD and its signal line (the 9-day EMA of MACD). Aspray developed the MACD-Histogram to anticipate signal line crossovers in MACD. Because MACD uses moving averages and moving averages lag price, signal line crossovers can come late and affect the reward-to-risk ratio of a trade. Bullish or bearish divergences in the MACD-Histogram can alert chartists to an imminent signal line crossover in MACD The MACD-Histogram represents the difference between MACD and its 9-day EMA, the signal line. Mathematically, macdx = macd - ma(macd, signal_length) Aspray's contribution served as a way to anticipate (and therefore cut down on lag) possible MACD crossovers which are a fundamental part of the indicator. Here come a question, what if repeat the same calculations once more (macdh2 = macdh - ma(macdh, signal_length), will it be even better, this question will remain to be tested • MACD-Leader, by Giorgos E. Siligardos, PhD MACD Leader has the ability to lead MACD at critical situations. Almost all smoothing methods encounter in technical analysis are based on a relative-weighted sum of past prices, and the Leader is no exception. The concealed weights of MACD Leader are such that more relative weight is used in the more recent prices than the respective weights used by the components of MACD. In effect, the Leader expresses more changes in average price dynamics for the recent price movement than MACD, thus eventually leading MACD, especially when significant trend changes are about to take place. Siligardos creates two less-laggard moving averages indicators in its formula using the same periods as follows Indicator1 = ma(source, fast_length) + ma(source - ma(source, fast_length), fast_length) Indicator2 = ma(source, slow_length) + ma(source - ma(source, slow_length), slow_length) and then take the difference: Indicator1 - Indicator2 The result is a new MACD Leader indicator macdx = macd + ma(source - fast_ma, fast_length) - ma(source - slow_ma, slow_length) • MACD-Source, a custom experimental interpretation of mine, MACD Source, presents an application of MACD that evaluates Source/MA Ratio, relatively with less lag, as a basis for MACD Line, also can be expressed as source convergence/divergence to its moving average. Among the various techniques for removing the lag between price and moving average (MA) of the price, one in particular stands out: the addition to the moving average of a portion of the difference between the price and MA. MACD Source, is based on signal length mean of the difference between Source and average value of shot length and long length moving average of the source (Source/MA Ratio), where the source is actual value and hence no lag and relatively less lag with the average value of moving average of the source . Mathematically expressed as, macdx = ma(source - avg( ma(source, fast_length), ma(source, slow_length) ), signal_length) MACD Source provides relatively early crossovers comparing to MACD and better momentum direction indications, assuming the lengths are set to same values For further details, you are invited to check the following two studies, where the first seeds were sown of the MACD-Source idea Price Distance to its Moving Averages study, adapts the idea of “Prices high above the moving average (MA) or low below it are likely to be remedied in the future by a reverse price movement", presented in an article by Denis Alajbeg, Zoran Bubas and Dina Vasic published in International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management First MACD like interpretation comes with the second study named as “P-MACD”, where P stands for price, P-MACD study attempts to display relationship between Price and its 20 and 200-period moving average. Calculations with P-MACD were based on price distance (convergence/divergence) to its 200-period moving average, and moving average convergence/divergence of 20-period moving average to 200-period moving average of price. Now as explained above, MACD Source is a one adapted with traditional MACD, where Source stands for Price, Volume Indicator etc, any source applicable with MACD concept 2- Allows usage of variety of different sources, including Volume related indicators The most common usage of Source for MACD calculation is close value of the financial instruments price. As an experimental approach, this study will allow source to be selected as one of the following series; • Current Close Price (close) • Average of High, Low, and Close Price (hlc3) • On Balance Volume (obv) • Accumulation Distribution (accdist) • Price Volume Trend (pvt) Where, -Current Close Price and Average of High, Low, and Close Price are price actions of the financial instrument -Accumulation Distribution is a volume based indicator designed to measure underlying supply and demand -On Balance Volume (OBV), is a momentum indicator that measures positive and negative volume flow -Price Volume Trend (PVT) is a momentum based indicator used to measure money flow 3- Can be plotted along with MACD in the same window using the same scaling Default setting of MACD-X will display MACD-Source with Current Close Price as a source and traditional MACD can be plotted eighter as a companion of MACD-X or can be selected to be plotted alone. Applying both will add ability to compare, or use as a confirmation of one other In case, traditional MACD Is plotted along with MACD-X to avoid misinterpreting, the lines plotted, the area between MACD-X Line and Signal-X Line is highlighted automatically, even if the highlight option not selected. Otherwise highlight will be applied only if that option selected 4- 4C Histogram Histogram is plotted with four colors to emphasize the momentum and direction 5- Customizable Additional to ability of selecting Calculation Method, Source, plotting along with MACD, there are few other option that allows users to customize the MACD-X indicator Lengths are configurable, default values are set as 12, 26, 9 respectively for fast, slow and smoothing length. Setting lengths to 8,21,5 respectively Is worth checking, slower length moving averages will lead to less lag and earlier reaction to price actions but yet requires a caution and back testing before applying Highlight the area between MACD-X Line and Signal-X Line, with colors emphasising the direction Label can be added to display Calculation Method, Source and Length settings, the aim of this label is to server only as a reminder to trades to be aware of settings while they are occupied with charts, analysis etc. Here comes another question, which is of more importance having the reminder or having the indicators with multi timeframe feature? Build-in Multi Time Frame features of Pine is not supported when labels and lines introduced in the script, there are other methods but brings complexity. To be studied further, this version will be with labels for time being. EPILOGUE MACD-X is an alternative variant of MACD, the insight/signals provided by MACD are also applicable to MACD-X with early and clear warnings for the changes in the trend. If MACD is essential to your analysis, then it is my guess that after using the MACD-X for a while and familiarizing yourself with its unique character and personality, you will make it an inseparable companion to other indicators in your charts. The various signals generated by MACD/MACD-X are easily interpreted and very few indicators in technical analysis have proved to be more reliable than the MACD, and this relatively simple indicator can quickly be incorporated into any short-term trading strategy
Education
by dgtrd
22
EURNZD - Greed kills...DISCLAIMER: Trading Forex involves risk and you may lose more money than you started with! These posts are not to be taken as trade recommendations or financial advice and I offer NO guarantee that any of these ideas will result in profit. Also, trade ideas may change, depending on ever-changing market conditions. You are trading at your own risk and past performance is NOT indicative of future results. Please, know how much you are willing to risk on EVERY trade that you take and be SMART! Simplify your trading. Always measure your risk and be okay with being wrong ; ) Wait patiently and get the price that you want. Use the market. Don't let the market use you.
Education
by Simple_Renko
7
A picture of divergence. Make sure it's there before jumping in!DISCLAIMER: Trading Forex involves risk and you may lose more money than you started with! These posts are not to be taken as trade recommendations or financial advice and I offer NO guarantee that any of these ideas will result in profit. Also, trade ideas may change, depending on ever-changing market conditions. You are trading at your own risk and past performance is NOT indicative of future results. Please, know how much you are willing to risk on EVERY trade that you take and be SMART! Simplify your trading. Always measure your risk and be okay with being wrong ; ) Wait patiently and get the price that you want. Use the market. Don't let the market use you.
Education
by Simple_Renko