Moving Averages
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (3/11/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin attempted to push above $3950 this weekend but could not make it happen. As I have been mentioning, there is strong resistance up toward $4000 and overcoming it won't be a walk in the park. Last night's downward move bounced off the daily 21 EMA, finding support on the HVN. An H1 gap was created around $3888 and RSI just bounced off oversold. H4 price is printing higher lows between March 8th and today while RSI is printing lower lows. This all suggests some temporary bottoming and a move up toward $3900 at the least.
If we take a look at the H4 channels we can see price attempting to push through the horizontal TR's resistance. Price moved up with four touches on the ascending channel's support. Since the Friday high, it has moved within the descending channel inside it, with some sideways actions happening between the resistance levels of the two horizontal channels. If we see price close above $3900 then we should see it target the ascending channel's resistance. With the H4 RSI touching its descending channel support, and price finding support on the HVN/D1 21 EMA as well as bouncing off the D3 support level, it makes more sense for price to move up from here rather than down. We can also see a bullish hammer printing on the H4 TF signifying a likely reversal. Traders should be cautious around the Friday $3950.25 swing high as price needs to close above it before it can target the mid-$4100s/H4 R2 pivot and nearby swing high of $4190.
March 10th saw the daily MACD rejected at the bullish cross. The ascending channel on the D1 chart shows price's possible path toward a double top at the ATH descending resistance. The truth is, there are many paths, down and up, that price can take at this time and many retail traders will lose a lot of money attempting to trade the noise in this area. Lack of patience permeates the retail trading sphere spurred on by emotional get-rich-quick overnight millionaire thoughts. Traders that insist on day trading this level should be much more intent on locking in profits earlier and completing shorter term trades. Those looking to buy in for a longer term run toward $5000 or more are best served by closing the chart once they buy and not looking at it again for a few weeks at least.
Finally, as some of you may be aware by now, Binance has scheduled maintenance planned for tomorrow. I have seen "analysis" suggesting that since price dropped through the $6000 level soon after the November 12th Binance maintenance, that price will drop this time as well. While it's always possible, the glaring difference that immediately occurs to me is that price was sitting on support at that time while it is now sitting at resistance. If the same manipulation storyline is followed, then logically it would suggest a push through resistance not a drop in price.
If further movement to the downside occurs, then I would want to see the February 27th swing low hold at $3658.19. What this means is that I don't want to see a daily close below that. A wick below and close above would print a bullish SFP and signal likely upward price progression once again. Prior to that point, I would want to see the H4 March 8th swing low at $3760.10 hold.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
ETH 20+100 Day EMA Crossing Upwards (again)As referenced in ETH's daily chart, within the past month, the following price fluctuations were observed upon its 20Day EMA crossing with the 100Day EMA:
On February 10th, subsequent to 20/100 Day EMA crossing (upward), ETH price increased approximately 8.31% (or $9.61) within 24hrs;
On March 3rd, subsequent to 20/100 Day EMA crossing (downward), ETH price decreased approximately, an additional (?) 3.76% (or $4.80);
As of the time of this writing, the Daily RSI is currently @ 62 and the 20+100 EMA's appears to be crossing in an upward direction. Whether the EMA's actually crosses and action follows, TBD.
This is not a recommendation, only my observations and for informational reference.
1300,3000,200k,750k?I'll just leave it here. It doesn't matter how low it will fall, 1300-1800, 3000-3300. Wait for another 5 years, in exponential projection of 2017th growth/(2015-2017) recuperation related to a potential 20** growth (probably 200k+)/(2018-~2025)... Make your own calculations. The cycles are still repeating, for the last 9 years. Keep in touch people and just have patience. My SWT prognosis is still alive. I still do believe that they will make their shot, even if I lost about 16k$ with them and don't have a dime in their project invested atm.
Be smart, buy at 1300-1400 (better 1400). Sell at whatever your heart wishes, at >200k$, be patient, be smart. Keep in touch with the top 10 banks announcements. 2019 is gonna be a very very interesting year.
WHAT IS YOUR DEFINITION WHAT MAKES A TRENDThis defines a trend in such in clear terms that it applies to any time frame, any symbol, any market, any time of day.
Here are some definitions I have heard what is a trend
A trend demonstrates higher highs, or lower lows. Really? how many bars of "higher highs" or "lower lows" are required to define a trend?
The trend is your friend until it ends," because most people don't even know when it started! Let alone when it's about to end, or reverse and run up a margin call.
What do you use to determine "The Trend?"
Bitcoin long history with the MA100Hey, I got some stats for you.
So Bitcoin MA 100 got tested 38 times since 2010, and this happened:
* Clean bounce : 12 times
* The MA got passed, with little follow up (< 10%), the price stagnated, and then the price went back the other way: 9 times
* Break with follow up (immediate): 7 times
* MA break followed by rapid reversal (like bouncing on it but after passing throught it a bit > 10%): 3 times
* Break MA slighlty, stagnates, then continues: 3 times (case #26 in the screenshot is the 3rd time)
* Bounce, stagnates, breaks: 1 time
Here are all the times Bitcoin MA 100 got tested:
The 3 cases when the MA got slightly broken, then price stagnated, and then there was follow through, in 2 cases the price stagnated for a very long time on the opposite side of the MA before breaking it weakly.
So to sum up out of 38 times the 100MA got visited, the price broke it and stagnated 12 times, and out of these 12 times, only 3 were wins for traders buying the break.
Is this always the same? With other markets?
That seems logical. If a resistance gets broken, but there is no follow up the first few days, it would seem very unlikely anything happens. You need an initial snowball to grow a snowball bigger.
But I never backtested the MA100 or any moving average actually, that much. What do you think? The odds of going up are about 1 in 4?
Weekly Predictions (Feb 18 - 22)- Price neither oversold nor overbought
- Recent consolidation above EMA (25, close), price was unable to break on the downside
- Price is now at recent highs, could form a double top or break above zone
- Price would need to close above zone on the daily or 4-hr chart
Correlation Coefficient + CCIPictured above is a graph of Royal Dutch Shell vs brent crude, the correlation coefficient between them, and the commodity channel index tracking the volume weighted moving average of Shell.
I tested this indicator on a few energy stocks: RDS, MRO, BP and XOM. Negative correlation between brent crude and an energy stock coupled with an overbought CCI seems to give an indication of price reversal. Here we see two overbought CCI readings coupled with negative correlation, both followed by massive drops in the price of BCO and RDS. Likewise we see negative correlation coupled with upward CCI readings pointing to massive price rises in RDS. Seems to work on daily time frame as well but indicator length will need to be tweaked accordingly.
Correlation coefficient going negative is an indication of pricing inefficiency and momentum potential, but does not give us an indication of price direction. The commodity channel index can give us a sense of where price momentum is pointed. Both put together give us a powerful indicator capable of foreshadowing both momentum and direction.
The SMA cross strategy In this educational idea I’ll cover the SMA cross strategy. I’ll will cover how it works, what my peripheral values are and how it can work for you.
The Simple moving averages cross strategy is a strategy where you buy something on a buy-signal of the indicator and sell it on a target, for example if you had 5% profit.
What is a moving average? A moving average is an indicator which helps you smooth out “noise” in a graph. The indicator is based on a formula you can find the formula below. You can add values to the indicator, let’s say you want a MA of 9 candles you just add a value of 9. You usually use more than one MA, I prefer using a 7 candle MA and a 25 candle MA. The thing I like on moving averages is that you can use them in any time frame.
What is a buy signal? A buy signal is created when the long moving averages (in my case the 25 candle MA) gets underneath the short one (in my case the 7 candle MA). When that happens a buy signal is created. When the opposite occurs it’s a sell order.
How to determine a target. Your goal is to make money, but how can you make as much money as possible with this strategy. You have to determine a goal, so an exit-position. Your exit-position is the hardest thing of this strategy, but you can use an average of what happened before. If the average of positive “breakouts” is for example 5% profit you can use 5% profit as target.
How to use a SMA strategy to make you money. Not all the SMA crosses will lead to profit, most of them are even false “breakouts”. So before you buy something on a buy-signal you have to wait a few seconds and watch what the price will do, when it goes up you buy, when it does nothing of goes down you do nothing. If you want to make money using this strategy you have to set a stop-loss, I recommend to always set a stop-loss not only for this strategy. You can keep your stop-loss really close to your buy order.
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Bitcoin - Moving Average ZoneNot financial advise. Do your own research. The ideas shared here are the personal opinions of the BitDoctor team. Trade at your risk.
A slightly different perspective and not really looking at market formations but focusing on moving averages. There are a couple moving averages I want to focus on:
1. 200 Week Moving Average (Red) - ~$3175
2. 25 Day Moving Average (Green) - ~$3542
3. 50 Day Moving Average (Orange) - ~$3674
We are currently stuck between these 25 and 50 day moving averages but what I want to focus on is historical price action. We've been rejected at the 50 day moving average many times. I'm not sure I'd include Dec 24 as a front run rejection of the 50 but definitely Jan 8 and Feb 8.
If you take a loser look at the October- November timeframe, you'll notice we were suppressed below the 25 day moving average for quite a while and we were controlled by the 25 / 50 / 75 day moving average. We're close to being back there depending on what happens here at the 25/50. If we are able to break $3675 cleanly, I will be looking at the next target at $3850 but you have to be watching that resistance channel as well (in yellow).
All in all we are being controlled by the 200 weekly moving average and the 50 day moving average. These moving averages are converging on each other and I'm keeping my eye on the 75 / 100 day moving averages which is also creeping closer as days go by.
It will be interesting to see in the upcoming 2-3 days what happens. I am surprised we've stayed in this zone as long as we have.
Trade safely friends
<3 -CE-