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Moving Averages

The 3 types of trendSummary Introduction Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Conclusion Introduction Trends are not created equal, there are 3 types of trends, I am not a trend trader that much but I can identify trends and tell the difference. This is what I know about myself: 1- Strong trends Examples: Ways to define these strong trends - Eyesight - With a momentum indicator (not a fan) - With a trendline - With moving averages As you can see, there are not many pullbacks with this type of trend - once it pullsback it is a reversal often, so how best to participate in this? 2- Medium trends Not going as much in detail here, don't care so much. Plus you get the idea anyway. Medium trends are not as awesome, they get quite choppy. Just not as good to participate in, in my opinion. Examples: Same ways to define it, but trendlines have smaller angles, RSI not as high, and use EMA 50 rather than 20. Ideas to trade, similar with 1 big exception: 3- Weak trends Ooooh what's that smell? I could trade it like a consolidation with a bear bias (only go short) in a downtrend? NO! In this EURUSD example you can see tops go lower, then higher, then lower. It is not clear, super choppy. The price is generally going down, but there are no good entries. Unless you do not mind a risk reward of 1 while trading a daily chart... The thing that makes holding weeks > get in and out is you can get high risk rewards, cumulate uncorrelated positions (which reduces overall risk), hence increase your profit without having more risk.. (Bonus) The "I am going to zero" trend Summing up: About the 3/5 group of strategies I have posted: 1/5 (The 4 kinds of bottoms) = Supply & Demand 2/5 (Buying pullbacks style) = Trend following / Troll strategies 3/5 (Trend continuation breaks) = (Strong) Trend following
Education
by MrRenev
DXY - Daily - Multi-Timeframe Analysis Series 1The DXY being weighted as follows: EUR - 57.6% JPY - 13.6 % GBP - 11.9% CAD - 9.1% SEK - 4.2% CHF - 3.6% As you may imagine, there's a lot more interest in using the DXY for a correlation / confluence tool when trading the EURUSD . The EURO equates to over half of the overall weight of the index, meaning there's a majority interest in the EUR vs USD. We can use this to our advantage, alongside the USDOLLAR INDEX, to add positive or negative trade factors when considering positions across USD pairs and commodities . Comments I've let the Daily remain zoomed out to show the potential for a consolidation formation. It looks closer matched to an Ascending Triangle (potential to break to the upside or downside) rather than a Rising Wedge (strictly reversal pattern). If the Monthly is looking prime for a sell-off, I must favour the Ascending Triangle breaking to the downside. Only time will tell, but I won't be counting on massive Dollar Strength beyond 97.50 unless we see a big Weekly close above this key level. Unless this starts to break down below the 96.00 handle, it's still bullish for me moving into next week. Key Note Look at how price isn't respecting the EMA's as well as it has done in the past. This is an indication of consolidation occurring on this timeframe.
TVC:DXYEducation
by robdee4x
PKR-USD Chart shows that Pakistani Rupee has massively DeclinedFX_IDC:PKRUSD Chart shows that the relationship between FX_IDC:PKRUSD have gone stronger. PKR has declined massively in past 12 months as per our analysis covering the Tenure of March 2018 to 2019 the period of May to July has shown massive Decline. Perhaps Bailout packages and friendly aid can might help the graph go upwards to a few bars, However the mainstream idea remains bearish against USD as IMF loan approches near we should expect more depreciation to PKR. The chart shows a little potential gains between 0.0071xx and 0.0073xx However it doesn't seems Promising enough to attract investors. Current Oscillators are highly on red side the buying orders for rupee are almost zero and if this trend keeps moving forward in next days we can expect a downard hit to 0.0065xx.. so plan wisely Sometimes you Earn the other times you learn. happy trading
Education
by CognitoBTC
Bitcoin Macro Analysis of Weekly SMA's on log chartMost of the information can be found on the chart. I decided to analyze the relationship of several different Simple Moving Averages on weekly candles. I chose to use BLX as the price history goes back the longest. This allowed me to even consider 300 and 400 week moving averages. Comment with any follow up questions you might have. First, I studied the SMA interaction of the previous bear market. Here is what I found. 1) 200 SMA was never broken by price (candle never closes below) 2) 20 SMA never allowed to break below the 200 SMA 3) After 1st test of the 200 SMA, price traveled to 20, 50, 100 SMA's (with retest of 200 in btwn) 4) Uptrend resumed once 20 SMA broke above 100 SMA 5) 20 SMA never again fell below the 50 SMA until mid 2018 6) Price never closed below 20 sma until the "top" Next, I applied what I found to the current environment. 1) As we approach the decision point of the 20 & 200 SMA's, bulls are left with 2 options. Assuming the 200 SMA will hold, bulls will look to bet heavy with each visit Alternatively, cautious bulls can wait for a future confirmation, such as historically occurs with each touch of the 50 or 100 SMA's. 2) Bears will look to short at the 200 SMA with any high timeframe candle close, stops at or just above the 200. 3) Wildcard option: Price breaks 200 SMA, finds support on either the 300 or 400 SMA (white and yellow) above. A new accumulation traderange likely takes place at this level. (I especially find Wildcard option 3 interesting, as it would be a long term confirmation of support after a decade long bull run AND it's not really something most traders are looking for atm.) ---- This is for educational purposes only. As always, comments/ideas/thoughts appreciated. - Jack
BNC:BLXEducation
by Crypt0Jack
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (3/11/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin attempted to push above $3950 this weekend but could not make it happen. As I have been mentioning, there is strong resistance up toward $4000 and overcoming it won't be a walk in the park. Last night's downward move bounced off the daily 21 EMA, finding support on the HVN. An H1 gap was created around $3888 and RSI just bounced off oversold. H4 price is printing higher lows between March 8th and today while RSI is printing lower lows. This all suggests some temporary bottoming and a move up toward $3900 at the least. If we take a look at the H4 channels we can see price attempting to push through the horizontal TR's resistance. Price moved up with four touches on the ascending channel's support. Since the Friday high, it has moved within the descending channel inside it, with some sideways actions happening between the resistance levels of the two horizontal channels. If we see price close above $3900 then we should see it target the ascending channel's resistance. With the H4 RSI touching its descending channel support, and price finding support on the HVN/D1 21 EMA as well as bouncing off the D3 support level, it makes more sense for price to move up from here rather than down. We can also see a bullish hammer printing on the H4 TF signifying a likely reversal. Traders should be cautious around the Friday $3950.25 swing high as price needs to close above it before it can target the mid-$4100s/H4 R2 pivot and nearby swing high of $4190. March 10th saw the daily MACD rejected at the bullish cross. The ascending channel on the D1 chart shows price's possible path toward a double top at the ATH descending resistance. The truth is, there are many paths, down and up, that price can take at this time and many retail traders will lose a lot of money attempting to trade the noise in this area. Lack of patience permeates the retail trading sphere spurred on by emotional get-rich-quick overnight millionaire thoughts. Traders that insist on day trading this level should be much more intent on locking in profits earlier and completing shorter term trades. Those looking to buy in for a longer term run toward $5000 or more are best served by closing the chart once they buy and not looking at it again for a few weeks at least. Finally, as some of you may be aware by now, Binance has scheduled maintenance planned for tomorrow. I have seen "analysis" suggesting that since price dropped through the $6000 level soon after the November 12th Binance maintenance, that price will drop this time as well. While it's always possible, the glaring difference that immediately occurs to me is that price was sitting on support at that time while it is now sitting at resistance. If the same manipulation storyline is followed, then logically it would suggest a push through resistance not a drop in price. If further movement to the downside occurs, then I would want to see the February 27th swing low hold at $3658.19. What this means is that I don't want to see a daily close below that. A wick below and close above would print a bullish SFP and signal likely upward price progression once again. Prior to that point, I would want to see the H4 March 8th swing low at $3760.10 hold. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
ETH 20+100 Day EMA Crossing Upwards (again)As referenced in ETH's daily chart, within the past month, the following price fluctuations were observed upon its 20Day EMA crossing with the 100Day EMA: On February 10th, subsequent to 20/100 Day EMA crossing (upward), ETH price increased approximately 8.31% (or $9.61) within 24hrs; On March 3rd, subsequent to 20/100 Day EMA crossing (downward), ETH price decreased approximately, an additional (?) 3.76% (or $4.80); As of the time of this writing, the Daily RSI is currently @ 62 and the 20+100 EMA's appears to be crossing in an upward direction. Whether the EMA's actually crosses and action follows, TBD. This is not a recommendation, only my observations and for informational reference.
COINBASE:ETHUSDEducation
by Yur_Gr8est_Fan
1300,3000,200k,750k?I'll just leave it here. It doesn't matter how low it will fall, 1300-1800, 3000-3300. Wait for another 5 years, in exponential projection of 2017th growth/(2015-2017) recuperation related to a potential 20** growth (probably 200k+)/(2018-~2025)... Make your own calculations. The cycles are still repeating, for the last 9 years. Keep in touch people and just have patience. My SWT prognosis is still alive. I still do believe that they will make their shot, even if I lost about 16k$ with them and don't have a dime in their project invested atm. Be smart, buy at 1300-1400 (better 1400). Sell at whatever your heart wishes, at >200k$, be patient, be smart. Keep in touch with the top 10 banks announcements. 2019 is gonna be a very very interesting year.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by mythologism
WHAT IS YOUR DEFINITION WHAT MAKES A TRENDThis defines a trend in such in clear terms that it applies to any time frame, any symbol, any market, any time of day. Here are some definitions I have heard what is a trend A trend demonstrates higher highs, or lower lows. Really? how many bars of "higher highs" or "lower lows" are required to define a trend? The trend is your friend until it ends," because most people don't even know when it started! Let alone when it's about to end, or reverse and run up a margin call. What do you use to determine "The Trend?"
Education
by Tradingstrategyguides
Bitcoin long history with the MA100Hey, I got some stats for you. So Bitcoin MA 100 got tested 38 times since 2010, and this happened: * Clean bounce : 12 times * The MA got passed, with little follow up (< 10%), the price stagnated, and then the price went back the other way: 9 times * Break with follow up (immediate): 7 times * MA break followed by rapid reversal (like bouncing on it but after passing throught it a bit > 10%): 3 times * Break MA slighlty, stagnates, then continues: 3 times (case #26 in the screenshot is the 3rd time) * Bounce, stagnates, breaks: 1 time Here are all the times Bitcoin MA 100 got tested: The 3 cases when the MA got slightly broken, then price stagnated, and then there was follow through, in 2 cases the price stagnated for a very long time on the opposite side of the MA before breaking it weakly. So to sum up out of 38 times the 100MA got visited, the price broke it and stagnated 12 times, and out of these 12 times, only 3 were wins for traders buying the break. Is this always the same? With other markets? That seems logical. If a resistance gets broken, but there is no follow up the first few days, it would seem very unlikely anything happens. You need an initial snowball to grow a snowball bigger. But I never backtested the MA100 or any moving average actually, that much. What do you think? The odds of going up are about 1 in 4?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
4
Correlation Coefficient + CCIPictured above is a graph of Royal Dutch Shell vs brent crude, the correlation coefficient between them, and the commodity channel index tracking the volume weighted moving average of Shell. I tested this indicator on a few energy stocks: RDS, MRO, BP and XOM. Negative correlation between brent crude and an energy stock coupled with an overbought CCI seems to give an indication of price reversal. Here we see two overbought CCI readings coupled with negative correlation, both followed by massive drops in the price of BCO and RDS. Likewise we see negative correlation coupled with upward CCI readings pointing to massive price rises in RDS. Seems to work on daily time frame as well but indicator length will need to be tweaked accordingly. Correlation coefficient going negative is an indication of pricing inefficiency and momentum potential, but does not give us an indication of price direction. The commodity channel index can give us a sense of where price momentum is pointed. Both put together give us a powerful indicator capable of foreshadowing both momentum and direction.
REducation
by Derivati_Capital