Get started

Moving Averages

HOW TO READ THE BTC DOMINANCE CHART AND WHY YOU SHOULD USE IT!So, the title is obvious. Why should you be using this chart. Well unless you want to keep your Bitcoin, pin your ears back. When BTC dominance is going up and keeps going up it means only one thing. Bitcoin is moving faster than alt-coins meaning your alt holdings are bleeding BTC at a heavy rate. Too many people think they are winning in this industry because USD is up... When in actual fact they have lost a couple of BTC without noticing. So take note of the dominance chart. Set an alert within a trend. If it is going down, look at altcoins to trade. If it is going up hold Bitcoin.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DEducation
by CryptoMobster
3
A Renko Strategy for Trading - Part 9This is intended more as educational material on a strategy for using renko charts. To begin with, I'll be using USOil in the examples but will include other markets as I continue through the series. The material is not intended to prescribe or recommend actual trades as the decision to place trades is the responsibility of each individual who trades as they assume all risks for their own positions and accounts. Chart setup : (Part 1) Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) 12 black line Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) 20 red line Parabolic SAR (PSAR) 0.09/0.09/.23 blue circles Simple Moving Average (SA) 20 blue line (Part 2) Stochastics 5, 3, 3 with boundaries 80/20 dark blue/light blue Stochastics 50, 3, 3 with boundaries 55/45 red Overlay these two on one indicator. Refer to 'Part 2' as to how to do this (Part 3) True Strength Indicator (TSI) 14/4/4 dark blue/ red Directional Movement Indicator DMI 14/14 ADX-dark green, +DI-dark blue, -DI-red Renko Chart Settings Crude Oil (TVC:USOil): renko/traditional/blksize .05/.10/.25 Natural Gas (ngas): renko/traditional/blksize .005/.010/.025 Soybeans/Wheat/Corn (soybnusd/wheatusd/cornusd): can use the ngas setup S&P 500 (spx500usd): renko/traditional/blksize 2.5/5.0/12.5 Euros (EURUSD): renko/traditional/blksize .0005/.0010/.0025
FX:NGASEducation
by mxb1961
A Renko Strategy for Trading - Part 7 Refactor/RefinementThis is intended more as educational material on a strategy for using renko charts. To begin with, I'll be using USOil in the examples but will include other markets as I continue through the series. The material is not intended to prescribe or recommend actual trades as the decision to place trades is the responsibility of each individual who trades as they assume all risks for their own positions and accounts. (Part 1) Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) 12 black line Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) 20 red line Parabolic SAR (PSAR) 0.09/0.09/.23 blue circles Simple Moving Average (SA) 20 blue line (Part 2) Stochastics 5, 3, 3 with boundaries 80/20 dark blue/light blue Stochastics 50, 3, 3 with boundaries 55/45 red Overlay these two on one indicator. Refer to 'Part 2' as to how to do this (Part 3) True Strength Indicator (TSI) 14/4/4 dark blue/ red Directional Movement Indicator DMI 14/14 ADX-dark green, +DI-dark blue, -DI-red
FX:USOILEducation
by mxb1961
A Renko Strategy for Trading - Part 6This is intended more as educational material on a strategy for using renko charts. To begin with, I'll be using USOil in the examples but will include other markets as I continue through the series. The material is not intended to prescribe or recommend actual trades as the decision to place trades is the responsibility of each individual who trades as they assume all risks for their own positions and accounts. Chart setup: (Part 1) Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) 12 black line Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) 20 red line Parabolic SAR (PSAR) 0.09/0.09/.23 blue circles Simple Moving Average (SA) 20 blue line (Part 2) Stochastics 5, 3, 3 with boundaries 80/20 dark blue/light blue Stochastics 50, 3, 3 with boundaries 55/45 red Overlay these two on one indicator. Refer to 'Part 2' as to how to do this (Part 3) True Strength Indicator (TSI) 14/4/4 dark blue/ red Directional Movement Indicator DMI 14/14 ADX-dark green, +DI-dark blue, -DI-red Part 6 Only use 2 block sizes SxS to trade with. One for placing orders and one to confirm plan Previously I had many different block size charts of the same instrument but I think that causes more confusion the benefit Set interval to 1 minute for all charts and block sizes Potential block sizes to consider or experiment with: Crude Oil: .10/.20 Currencies: .0005/.0010 BTCUSD: 10/20 SPX500: 2.5/5.0 Ags: .005/.010 I use BTCUSD for training purposes along with the TV paper trading capabilities. Recap: Basic analogy is that of an unconscious patient brought into an emergency department and a triage is performed to determine a plan of treatment. In this scenario, price is the patient, the indicators are probes and tests against the patient, and you're the ED physician performing the triage with the treatment plan the trading plan. This is a reactive type of trading plan. Based on observation of price, volume and indicators, a reactive order is placed with a somewhat tight stop Depending on trading style or success rate the exit strategy could be either a target method or trailing stop strategy There are guidelines for adding positions or re-entry based on choice in previous step Basic Strategy: Buying (basic) 12/20 DEMA where 12 crosses up over the 20 and + 1 block (filters) PSAR and price have swapped where price is greater than PSAR Stoch (short term - blue) is or has recently crossed from near 0 up over 20 Stoch (long term - red) is or has recently crossed from near 0 up over 20 TSI (blue) has crossed up over the signal line (red) DMI +DI moving up with -DI dropping. Ideally +DI crossed up over -DI at or soon after DEMA cross
Education
by mxb1961
Basics of Trading with EMAs using Multi Timeframes MTF ExplainedThe Basics of Trading with EMAs using Multi Timeframes MTF Explained To be able to trade successfully you need to understand how timeframes influence price movements. Here I'm using the Litecoin D1 chart to illustrate. On a chart you can see 3 sets of EMAs from different timeframes with crosses marked by dots: 12 (aqua), 26 (purple), 50 (red), 200 (blue) D1, W1, Monthly EMAs use thin, medium, and thick lines respectively. Note: W1 and Monthly don't have EMAs 50 and 200 because there's not enough history, so there are less lines to watch There are also 2 indicators: Historical Volatility and EMA Cross MTF Grid The following relation between EMAs is timeframe specific: - D1 EMA50 is roughly EMA12 of the W1 higher timeframe - D1 EMA200 is almost exactly EMA26 of the W1 higher timeframe, but not quite you can use such EMA approximations to avoid switching timeframes, for example, H1 EMA200 = H4 EMA50 or you can use my Multi SMA EMA MTF indicator. Choose timeframes wisely: M15, H1, H4, D1, W1, Mo Some people also use 195 min, 2H, 3H, 6H, 12H, 2D, 3D, 3Mo to watch how price propagates in between. General Ideas of EMA Trading: 1) Make sure you're in a trend on the current and higher timeframe. You will be more confident to set higher price targets when both timeframes are going in the same direction, and lower targets when the higher timeframe is in the opposite direction in correction. When in sideways market: - no trade high risk zone - not every EMA cross up means an up trend. you can have a sideways market with multiple crosses negating each other (Litecoin Feb-Mar 2017). EMAs won't help you there. - this is especially true for faster EMAs: 12,26. But on a Daily/Weekly even a faster EMA becomes relatively slow and therefore more reliable because a lot of effort goes into a single candle. - use a series of multiple EMA crosses on cur/higher timeframes and EMA slopes to confirm the start of a move in a specific direction - use Super Guppy/SuperTrend/PVT trend indicators to gauge trend - use a series of higher highs/higher lows, 5 waves up etc - basic methods to establish that price is trending - wait for a clear breakout with volume confirmation with 1-2 higher tf bar closes above R level, retest and follow through - look at historical volatility, buy low (blue), sell high (red) - use oscillators - switch/trade higher timeframes that are in a trend - switch/trade another asset Keep In mind: - Trading the trend on higher tfs (D1, H4) is simpler than on lower tfs with lots of noise and indecision, you have less everything: less noise, less outcomes, less lines to watch. - Sideways trading/Scalping in general is not worth the time/effort - you will most likely lose your money to bots. This is high risk trading that only applies to small positions and requires attention, precision and lots of skill to be profitable. - Trading large positions and portfolios requires higher liquidity and hedging and can be done using options or margin trading with 2 open positions in opposite directions on several exchanges. Use margin/short only when you know what you're doing. Always calculate R/R and fees. You can lose money on fees even when the trade was profitable. if you trade low liquidity coins for pennies expect flash crashes with huge wicks and stop order execution only at the bottom - use stop limit instead. Last, but not least: you don't want to become the market. If you buy up the whole asset - the price will go down, as there will be no more buyers (Oil, US History) 2) When in an up trend (Reverse is true for down trend) You can observe the following price behavior on the chart: - price is above EMA12 - up trend, likely to bounce at EMA12 => aggressive: buy the dips with a stop loss - price is below EMA12, above EMA26 - likely to bounce at EMA26 or next supporting EMA: EMA50 or EMA12 of the higher timeframe => conservative: buy the dips with a stop loss - EMA12,26 cross down - correction/sideways/reversal - start of down trend => exit longs and/or short with a stop loss after the cross or on retest of EMA12 => expect a sell off and possible retest of the closest EMA12,26,50 with further sell off => price tends to go all the way to EMA200, but can be stopped by the next supporting EMA50 or EMA12,26 of the higher timeframe in the same direction - price is below EMA200 - correction/reversal that can propagate to/cause a correction/reversal on a higher timeframe => look for a series of EMA crosses/slopes in the direction of a new trend on both cur/higher timeframes - further 2x2 crosses down EMA12,26 x EMA50,200 - additional confirmation of the trend change => expect a sell off and possible retest of EMA50,200 with further sell off - further 2x2 crosses down EMA12,26 x EMA12,26 of the higher timeframe - additional confirmation of the trend change => expect a sell off and possible retest of the closest EMA50 or EMA12,26 of the higher timeframe with further sell off - when both cur/higher timeframes have the same direction, expect a bounce at the first touch of the EMA12,26 of the higher timeframe with a move higher as sloping of EMA12,26 of the higher timeframe starts to decline expect lower bounces/sideways the price will only break down when the sloping of the higher timeframe changes to down. Even if price breaks before that it will likely be bought up immediately with a huge wick - when cur/higher timeframes have opposite directions, expect a rejection at the first touch of the EMA12,26 of the higher timeframe, price won't reach EMA200 as sloping of EMA12,26 of the higher timeframe starts to rise expect lower dips/sideways the price will only break up when the sloping of the higher timeframe changes to up. Even if price breaks sooner it will likely to be sold into immediately - you can gauge trend direction using sloping of W1 and Monthly high timeframes pretty reliably even without a cross because a lot of time/effort goes into changing it. entries: - on a EMA12x26 cross up or after on retest of EMA12 - on a 2nd EMA12x26 cross up after the price dips below and bounces at EMA26 to regain EMA12 support - after a change of slope up/cross up on a higher timeframe - on low volatility (blue, zero) - open position in the direction of a trend. If both cur/higher tf trends are up - long, down - short. If they have opposite direction use the direction of the cur tf trend and lower targets. exits: - agressive exit when EMA12 changes slope to flat/starts declining - conservative exit on EMA12,26 cross down - at a major resistance/EMA above: EMA200 or first touch of EMA12 of the higher timeframe - on high volatility (red) Notes: - you don't need EMA50, EMAs 12,26 and EMA200 will be enough, but you can use EMA50,200 golden crosses for additional confirmations - Monthly EMA12 has just slightly dipped below Monthly EMA26, stayed there for 2 months and broke back up - that's how we averted the 2019 crisis. Bottom's in - Timeframes on EMA Cross MTF Grid are from top to bottom: Mo, W1, D1, H4, H1. As you can see, Monthly, W1, D1 are smooth green while H4 and H1 are choppy and filled with crosses/noise. - EMA Cross MTF Grid crosses are lagging 1 bar, Crosses on EMA curves are also lagging due to smoothing enabled ___________________________________________________________ All EMAs are fanning up with corresponding EMA sets above each other - W1 EMA26 is crossing Monthly EMA12 => up trends on all H1,H4,D1,W1,Mo timeframes Based on all this you can expect for Litecoin: 1. up trend for coming weeks with quick dips to D1 EMA12 (128) or EMA26 (119) that will be bought up immediately Only after EMA12,26 cross down in a couple of weeks (EMA targets will move higher): 2. a larger drop to W1 EMA12 (105) which is already above the major 100 horizontal support - that will be bought up on the first pass (after the first cross the price will likely regain support of EMA12, cross back up and go higher) 3. on a major correction at some point a further drop to Mo EMA12 (81) that will again be bought up on the first pass 4. on W1 EMA12 slope change to down - a final drop to EMA200 (77) or possibly below (stop loss wick hunt) that will again be bought up on the first pass 5. a theoretical max possible drop to Mo EMA26 (72) - in a couple of months
BITFINEX:LTCUSDEducation
by RagingRocketBull
5
A Renko Strategy for Trading - Part 5This is intended more as educational material on a strategy for using renko charts. To begin with, I'll be using USOil in the examples but will include other markets as I continue through the series. The material is not intended to prescribe or recommend actual trades as the decision to place trades is the responsibility of each individual who trades as they assume all risks for their own positions and accounts. Chart setup: (Part 1) Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) 12 black line Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) 20 red line Parabolic SAR (PSAR) 0.09/0.09/.23 blue circles Simple Moving Average (SA) 20 blue line (Part 2) Stochastics 5, 3, 3 with boundaries 80/20 dark blue/light blue Stochastics 50, 3, 3 with boundaries 55/45 red Overlay these two on one indicator. Refer to 'Part 2' as to how to do this (Part 3) True Strength Indicator (TSI) 14/4/4 dark blue/ red Directional Movement Indicator DMI 14/14 ADX-dark green, +DI-dark blue, -DI-red
FX:USOILEducation
by mxb1961
The 3 types of trendSummary Introduction Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Conclusion Introduction Trends are not created equal, there are 3 types of trends, I am not a trend trader that much but I can identify trends and tell the difference. This is what I know about myself: 1- Strong trends Examples: Ways to define these strong trends - Eyesight - With a momentum indicator (not a fan) - With a trendline - With moving averages As you can see, there are not many pullbacks with this type of trend - once it pullsback it is a reversal often, so how best to participate in this? 2- Medium trends Not going as much in detail here, don't care so much. Plus you get the idea anyway. Medium trends are not as awesome, they get quite choppy. Just not as good to participate in, in my opinion. Examples: Same ways to define it, but trendlines have smaller angles, RSI not as high, and use EMA 50 rather than 20. Ideas to trade, similar with 1 big exception: 3- Weak trends Ooooh what's that smell? I could trade it like a consolidation with a bear bias (only go short) in a downtrend? NO! In this EURUSD example you can see tops go lower, then higher, then lower. It is not clear, super choppy. The price is generally going down, but there are no good entries. Unless you do not mind a risk reward of 1 while trading a daily chart... The thing that makes holding weeks > get in and out is you can get high risk rewards, cumulate uncorrelated positions (which reduces overall risk), hence increase your profit without having more risk.. (Bonus) The "I am going to zero" trend Summing up: About the 3/5 group of strategies I have posted: 1/5 (The 4 kinds of bottoms) = Supply & Demand 2/5 (Buying pullbacks style) = Trend following / Troll strategies 3/5 (Trend continuation breaks) = (Strong) Trend following
Education
by MrRenev
DXY - Daily - Multi-Timeframe Analysis Series 1The DXY being weighted as follows: EUR - 57.6% JPY - 13.6 % GBP - 11.9% CAD - 9.1% SEK - 4.2% CHF - 3.6% As you may imagine, there's a lot more interest in using the DXY for a correlation / confluence tool when trading the EURUSD . The EURO equates to over half of the overall weight of the index, meaning there's a majority interest in the EUR vs USD. We can use this to our advantage, alongside the USDOLLAR INDEX, to add positive or negative trade factors when considering positions across USD pairs and commodities . Comments I've let the Daily remain zoomed out to show the potential for a consolidation formation. It looks closer matched to an Ascending Triangle (potential to break to the upside or downside) rather than a Rising Wedge (strictly reversal pattern). If the Monthly is looking prime for a sell-off, I must favour the Ascending Triangle breaking to the downside. Only time will tell, but I won't be counting on massive Dollar Strength beyond 97.50 unless we see a big Weekly close above this key level. Unless this starts to break down below the 96.00 handle, it's still bullish for me moving into next week. Key Note Look at how price isn't respecting the EMA's as well as it has done in the past. This is an indication of consolidation occurring on this timeframe.
TVC:DXYEducation
by robdee4x
PKR-USD Chart shows that Pakistani Rupee has massively DeclinedFX_IDC:PKRUSD Chart shows that the relationship between FX_IDC:PKRUSD have gone stronger. PKR has declined massively in past 12 months as per our analysis covering the Tenure of March 2018 to 2019 the period of May to July has shown massive Decline. Perhaps Bailout packages and friendly aid can might help the graph go upwards to a few bars, However the mainstream idea remains bearish against USD as IMF loan approches near we should expect more depreciation to PKR. The chart shows a little potential gains between 0.0071xx and 0.0073xx However it doesn't seems Promising enough to attract investors. Current Oscillators are highly on red side the buying orders for rupee are almost zero and if this trend keeps moving forward in next days we can expect a downard hit to 0.0065xx.. so plan wisely Sometimes you Earn the other times you learn. happy trading
Education
by CognitoBTC
Bitcoin Macro Analysis of Weekly SMA's on log chartMost of the information can be found on the chart. I decided to analyze the relationship of several different Simple Moving Averages on weekly candles. I chose to use BLX as the price history goes back the longest. This allowed me to even consider 300 and 400 week moving averages. Comment with any follow up questions you might have. First, I studied the SMA interaction of the previous bear market. Here is what I found. 1) 200 SMA was never broken by price (candle never closes below) 2) 20 SMA never allowed to break below the 200 SMA 3) After 1st test of the 200 SMA, price traveled to 20, 50, 100 SMA's (with retest of 200 in btwn) 4) Uptrend resumed once 20 SMA broke above 100 SMA 5) 20 SMA never again fell below the 50 SMA until mid 2018 6) Price never closed below 20 sma until the "top" Next, I applied what I found to the current environment. 1) As we approach the decision point of the 20 & 200 SMA's, bulls are left with 2 options. Assuming the 200 SMA will hold, bulls will look to bet heavy with each visit Alternatively, cautious bulls can wait for a future confirmation, such as historically occurs with each touch of the 50 or 100 SMA's. 2) Bears will look to short at the 200 SMA with any high timeframe candle close, stops at or just above the 200. 3) Wildcard option: Price breaks 200 SMA, finds support on either the 300 or 400 SMA (white and yellow) above. A new accumulation traderange likely takes place at this level. (I especially find Wildcard option 3 interesting, as it would be a long term confirmation of support after a decade long bull run AND it's not really something most traders are looking for atm.) ---- This is for educational purposes only. As always, comments/ideas/thoughts appreciated. - Jack
BNC:BLXEducation
by Crypt0Jack
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (3/11/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin attempted to push above $3950 this weekend but could not make it happen. As I have been mentioning, there is strong resistance up toward $4000 and overcoming it won't be a walk in the park. Last night's downward move bounced off the daily 21 EMA, finding support on the HVN. An H1 gap was created around $3888 and RSI just bounced off oversold. H4 price is printing higher lows between March 8th and today while RSI is printing lower lows. This all suggests some temporary bottoming and a move up toward $3900 at the least. If we take a look at the H4 channels we can see price attempting to push through the horizontal TR's resistance. Price moved up with four touches on the ascending channel's support. Since the Friday high, it has moved within the descending channel inside it, with some sideways actions happening between the resistance levels of the two horizontal channels. If we see price close above $3900 then we should see it target the ascending channel's resistance. With the H4 RSI touching its descending channel support, and price finding support on the HVN/D1 21 EMA as well as bouncing off the D3 support level, it makes more sense for price to move up from here rather than down. We can also see a bullish hammer printing on the H4 TF signifying a likely reversal. Traders should be cautious around the Friday $3950.25 swing high as price needs to close above it before it can target the mid-$4100s/H4 R2 pivot and nearby swing high of $4190. March 10th saw the daily MACD rejected at the bullish cross. The ascending channel on the D1 chart shows price's possible path toward a double top at the ATH descending resistance. The truth is, there are many paths, down and up, that price can take at this time and many retail traders will lose a lot of money attempting to trade the noise in this area. Lack of patience permeates the retail trading sphere spurred on by emotional get-rich-quick overnight millionaire thoughts. Traders that insist on day trading this level should be much more intent on locking in profits earlier and completing shorter term trades. Those looking to buy in for a longer term run toward $5000 or more are best served by closing the chart once they buy and not looking at it again for a few weeks at least. Finally, as some of you may be aware by now, Binance has scheduled maintenance planned for tomorrow. I have seen "analysis" suggesting that since price dropped through the $6000 level soon after the November 12th Binance maintenance, that price will drop this time as well. While it's always possible, the glaring difference that immediately occurs to me is that price was sitting on support at that time while it is now sitting at resistance. If the same manipulation storyline is followed, then logically it would suggest a push through resistance not a drop in price. If further movement to the downside occurs, then I would want to see the February 27th swing low hold at $3658.19. What this means is that I don't want to see a daily close below that. A wick below and close above would print a bullish SFP and signal likely upward price progression once again. Prior to that point, I would want to see the H4 March 8th swing low at $3760.10 hold. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks