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Moving Averages

Trading Strategy for Parabolic Markets [Part 1]I recently watched this podcast with Tone Vays. Tyler Jenks was the guest and he started out by saying: "This is the greatest opportunity I have seen in financial markets." It just so happens that I have been studying parabolic theory as it relates to hyperwaves. I am using that information to develop a trading strategy that is aimed towards capitalizing on parabolic moves. I will be using Tyler Jenks' hyperwave and consensio theories, Welles Wilder’s RSI, ADX and Parabolic SAR indicators, as well as Parabolic theory from Spyfrat’s Call. The TD' Sequential and Ichimoku Clouds will also be used to a much smaller degree. Below I have outlined the indicators/theories that are being used, my approach to entries, four options for a trailing stop loss in a parabolic market and a rudimentary price target calculation. If you are not interested in the minutia of my approach then feel free to skip straight to part 2 where positions will be outline. I have identified 5 stocks that are currently in a parabolic state and one that is primed to start one. Entries, stop losses and risk:reward calculations are provided for each. Three strategies for implementing trailing stop losses have also been included. Consensio Used to identify bull and bear markets. If price is above the MA’s and the shorter term MA’s are all above the longer term MA’s then it is a bull market. If the price is below the MA’s and the shorter term MA’s are below the longer term then we are in a bear market. Hyperwave Parabolic Burst Continuation 30-prd RSI is used rather than the more commonly used 14-prd RSI If 30-prd RSI reaches 70 level, stock is in parabolic status The best setup is when both Weekly RSI and Daily RSI reach 70 with the weekly RSI > Daily. If both weekly and daily RSI are in parabolicy state but the daily RSI overtakes the weekly RSI the asset is said to be in a ‘Parabolic High Risk’ (PSR') state. Indicates that asset is at a high risk of a major correction (paraburst) If both weekly and daily RSI > 80 (regardless if w > d), the asset is said to be in ‘Extreme Parabolic High Risk’ (ePHR) state. Source ADX and DI ADX measures the strength of the trend. If < 20 then no trend exists. If > 25 then strength of trend is building. Horizontal lines can be drawn on the ADX to indicate when the move is becoming exhausted. Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI), together these measure trend direction. If +DI > -DI then trend is bullish. If +DI < -DI then trend is bearish. Crossover in the -DI and +DI can indicate a change in the market trend. Entries I will always line out a minimum of three entries. That is because I believe in entering into positions in thirds or fourths, only adding when the price moves in my favor. This allows me to minimize risk and emotional decision making. Trailing Stop Losses Bill Williams Fractals - Set slightly under most recent down fractal (if long). Parabolic SAR - Set slightly under most recent weekly SAR' or slightly under the previous 2 daily SARs. ADX - If > 50 on weekly and/or > 60 on daily RSI - If weekly and daily are > 80 Price Targets This is still a work in progress. I have noticed that each phase tends to go +90% - +95% from prior phases high. That can be used to give us a rough idea in order to calculate the risk:reward, however there is a lot more backtesting that still needs to be done. If you have significant data about the % ROI' each phase will return on average then I would be very interested in collaborating! Now that you understand the approach be sure to check out part 2 where 5 possible possible positions are outline
NYSE:BAEducation
by Sawcruhteez
1
Anatomy of Price & MA's During Consolidation and Trend ReversalBefore price makes a true reversal, whether bearish or bullish, price and SMA's have to make a series of cross overs in the direction of the reversal. Once every new level of support for price and SMA's has been made and confirmed, price then has the base from which to rally. Of course the easiest and safest way to profit from a trend reversal is a candle that closes above the upper resistance trend line, followed by a close above the the highs of the consolidation zone. However, many of us want to profit from price action in the lower time frames, too, but often we get stopped out or lose out on profitable trades because of the erratic whipsawing which is taking place in the higher time frames. Therefore, it is a good idea to analyze and observe what price and SMA's (and/ or EMA's, which ever you prefer) are doing on the larger time frames to understand why price is so choppy on lower time frames. Realize also that when price is consolidating or ranging as in this example of GBP/JPY, any trend following indicator like SMA's and EMA's are useless until price breaks out of the consolidation zone and forms a trend. Another good rule of thumb to follow and watch out for, is the 200SMA and whether it is sloping upwards, downwards or moving along horizontally. If at any stage on the daily time frame it is moving horizontally, expect a lot of erratic and almost illogical price action in the lower time frames, thus an indication to not hold trades for a long time until it starts to move up or down. Moving averages as mentioned above are useless when price is consolidating, however, they do reveal something very significant during that process nonetheless, namely, their levels when they cross over one another. If after each time price drops as in the example I have shown, the SMA's are higher than their previous levels than very often price will have found support at precisely those levels where the SMA's crossed over on another. This is far more revealing and provides much more credibility to price moving higher as opposed to just looking if price bounces of or is rejected at a single SMA or EMA level; incidentally, I have found that when one single candle bounces of a 50SMA for example and then continues to rally up from there, price tends to be in strong uptrend already with the SMA also pointing in that direction. Hence, it is crucial to understand the difference of behaviour of MA's in relation to price action, i.e. ranging or trending. If you look at the candle that broke out above the consolidation zone, note that below the 100 & 200SMA made a final bullish crossover and all the SMA's were sloping upwards, and this is quite interesting in that we know MA's to be lagging indicators. But they do indicate momentum building up so that we can be prepared for a move to the upside, as in this example, when price breaks out of the consolidation zone, thus, it seems as if the SMA's are not lagging at all, but this is due to the fact, as mentioned above, that price is now trending and the SMA's start to indicate and support the trending price action, hence changing their behaviour to confirm price is no longer consolidating. A brief look at the RSI indicator also is indicative of a bullish trend reversal about to occur when observing the divergence and convergence between price action and the SMA movement. For those new to trading and using momentum indicators such as the RSI, remember that overbought or oversold conditions dont immediately imply that price will drop or rise once it reaches those levels, instead price usually enters overbought or oversold levels after a breakout which indicates momentum in trend in the direction of the breakout. Only after the RSI crosses from above or below extreme levels can you start anticipating a corrective move, but never necessarily a reversal of the trend. In summary: When price is consolidating look for SMA crossover levels as support.
Education
by AMTrader
3] How to use Traders Dynamic Index and Complementary OverlayXtremePhaser = Thin Cyan line HighPhaser = Thin Blue line HighMBL = Thin Orange line Phaser = Thick Blue line Midline = Thick Black line & others. Just like the traditional use of moving averages, HighPhaser and XtremePhaser allows for higher time frame trend (by their nearness and crossover) to be seen and recognized by traders allowing them to respect market's condition to not imply what is not true and in the end 'lose it all'. It (TDI-CO) allows of course to show support and resistance. It also allows for support/resistance breakout to be evidenced as seen in 15 min chart with price being squeezed by Phaser (&Midline) and XtremePhaser. How to to trade retracements: Retracements come with the expectation of a trend continuation, therefore the safest trade is to continue trend not countertrend-trading with the pullback. Component lines aid in recognizing when the market is in a pullback as seen in image. HighMBL overlay did not allow price to rise any higher. Phaser and HigherMBL formed a channel because of their slope downward, but the importance of their steepness is major, as it should determine how you should trade. In summary you should trade in same steepened direction as the thick blue and thin orange line, but a breakout of a flat highLine is more promising for the adept swing traders.
Education
by YardleyRosette
2] How to use Traders Dynamic Index and Complementary OverlayWe here learn to observe the higher time frame 360, and analyse 1D that RSIPL are crossed down parallel. So lower than daily time frame= 540, 360 allows for trend entry at a 360 RSIPL and 'TSL initial cross down for max profit. On 180 as on 360 allowed for entry using the RSIPL/TSL crosses down. Also observing Phaser very near price as it 'pushed' priced down until price could breakout Phaser which had much importance. Price breakout of black Midline meant clear reversal and price retraced to it for support with target being HighPhaser or Fibonacci retracement tool for extension target. Entry for this retracement was possible by means of the countertrendline cross. __________ Promoting free and highly useful Indicators: KK_Traders Dynamic Index_Bar Highlighting Traders Dynamic Index Overlay "Price Action Channel Master by JustUncleL Restored"
Education
by YardleyRosette
Backtesting EMA StrategyAn EMA-based strategy which involves the following - Trend trading - Price interaction with the EMA's - Using EMAs for consolidating profit Here are the rules Step 1. Establish a trend In this strategy if the fast moving EMA (20 or the blue line) is above the 50EMA (slow EMA - red line) then we're in an uptrend. If its the opposite we are in a downtrend. Step 2. Two Cycles We want to have seen at least two cycles of Higher Highs and Higher Lows in an uptrend or Lower Highs and Lower Lows in a downtrend Step 3. Entry when price interacts with the 20 EMA after step 1 and 2 above with 30 pip Stop loss target and no Take profit Step 4. If the trend goes in your favour, trail the stop loss by scaling in behind the 50EMA (red line) These backtest show incredible results of over 50% on the GBPJPY pair in since September 2017, assuming absolutely all opportunities were taken.
Education
by bizlus
1] How to use Traders Dynamic Index and Complementary OverlayTraders Dynamic Index serves for crossover signals and are essential for trade entries and most beneficial when identified on over 30-minute Time Frames as on hourly time frames. I have made the options available of the oversold (green) 32 level line overlay which is useful in identifying potential buy zones/price. In KK_Traders Dynamic Index_Bar Highlighting it is also good to note that in uptrends : RSI ranges between Upper Volatility Band, Lower Volatility Band and/or relatively "within" 68 and 50 level lines as it has been doing on hourly time frames on Bitcoin. Direction and deviation of MBL overlay or Phaser from price is strong indicator of trend direction and price level/zone useful for those who are confused in knowing where price will have to average into. Promoting free and highly useful Indicators: KK_Traders Dynamic Index_Bar Highlighting Traders Dynamic Index Overlay "Price Action Channel Master by JustUncleL Restored" _______________ I had not used these guides recently which I have currently published. If anything (I ever do publish) varies contrary to these indicated guides and the coming guides to be published, the likelihood of failed forecast is augmented.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by YardleyRosette
Why using 8 & 20 EMA? (Part 1)EMAs are commonly used in conjunction with other indicators to confirm significant market moves and to gauge their validity. For traders who trade intraday and fast-moving markets, the EMA is more applicable. Quite often traders use EMAs to determine a trading bias. For example, if an EMA on a daily chart shows a strong upward trend, an intraday trader’s strategy may be to trade only from the long side on an intraday chart. There is not much different to use 9 & 20 EMA instead of 8 & 20 EMA. But there is a lot different by using 20 & 50 EMA, or 50 & 200 EMA. I know you understand what is a "golden cross" and what is a "death cross". In my point of view, they are just some names to control amateurs mind. Amateurs will be scared when there is a death cross happened on a market. In this example, I compare two stocks by using 8 & 20 EMA and simple candlestick patterns to spot entry and exit positions. In the next example, I will use 20 & 50 EMA. You will see the difference.
HKEX:1717Education
by SoloTraderAU
1
The importance of admitting you were wrong. I was wrong. Sorry.Hello. I have changed my background, I realized the full white one just blasts the human eye. Better go for something more easy on the eyes. I have to make a 180° on my previous bear position. In the trading & investing world, it is important to realize you were wrong and stay humble. If you don't, that's when you end up destroying your account. From what I saw I believed it very likely we drop all the way to 3500 before going to a bull market. I don't know if I said this exactly, but I at least might have led people to believe this. I was wrong. This is not likely. I zoomed out and saw what was happening around me, and I now strongly believe I was wrong. I am a bear no more. Believing we are going to reproduce 2014 crash and bounce on whatever trendline because it "looks similar" is stupid (I already posted an idea about this). I have now turned to an Orca. You know, the second biggest predator on the planet, and the most cruel animal on the planet, they love to torture their prey for hours before eating it. It's over. Bubble is about to pop. I will first show the graph for the short term. I guess that's what we're going to do, but that doesn't matter, I will next show what will happen long term. And it is not pretty. There's going to be blood in the streets and I'm not speaking metaphorically. A death cross will happen tonight, unless the bulls can push the price to 17000$. There's probably some of them that think it's possible. I also forgot to show the weekly MA 10, yet another resistance in the area. We are still following the usual bubble pattern and it's looking like 2014, I just think this time it will be worse. I'll explain later. There's so much data I don't know if I can throw it out all at once. I wanted to say, at my workplace there's this programmer guy, midly shy guy, just your average programmer I guess, back in early december when I started working closer to him he was pretty euphoric alwyas smiling laughing and extroverted I was wondering why he liked me so much gay or something? Well he started isolating himself 2 months ago "to focus on work" and complaining more and more and working long hours, and now, haven't seen him for 3 weeks he's having "medical" issues. After the double top to 11k when we went down he started being isolated and below 9k that's when he just vanished. I guess he's one of the victims. I hope for his health we crash soon? I guess? So he can sell, lose his money maybe, but at least he's free. Or maybe he sold and then bought back in on the "back to normal". In a while, we will get the suicide stories, the divorces and homeless people, there will be a ton of them. People are extremely stupid. The more something goes up, the more idiots put everything they have in and get lucky, the more the next people will put in. There has already been suicides. But it will get worse. Much, much worse. South Korea is going to be a bloodbath. Their "millenial" population was already deep in shit, but boy oh boy it's going to get worse. They thought crypto was the miracle magical thing that will give every one free magical money. It will end up being hell. Their doom. I'm betting on hundred of suicides at the VERY LEAST. ONE thing can save the bagholders now. A very evil person or group with alot of money that pumps crypto (not even sure it'll work out) to scam at a higher price, more people. It would end even more badly... But if they get caught what would happen to them would be worse than Mussolini Ghadaffi or 'Abd al-Ilah from Iraq. Let's zoom out and see where we are now: We have visited the long term investor average buy price twice, just like in 2014, and they have supported Bitcoin. The second time, we dug deep and found very strong support, bounced 100% to a double top (again). I will continue in an update.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
42
How to spot bear market. Live example.Pretty simple. 1- When we lose the important moving average's, it's an indication a bear market is possible, but by itself does not confirm the start of a bear market at all. 2- When the MA50 starts going downwards... you can start betting we're in bear market. 3- When we lost the MA100 and it starts pointing down, bear market is confirmed, but by then we already dropped alot thought. 4- Usually the faster the climb up is, the longer the bear market lasts. The more time we are in bull market, the more violent and quick the drop. Compare 2014 2017 perfect example. 5- Everything comes in wave of 3. 1rst time people don't notice, 2nd time don't really believe, 3rd time everyone with simple minds are thinking "last 2 times they said it wasn't going up/down, last 2 times it did this it keeps repeating itself, clearly I can buy/sell/join that sect/vote for that NAZI that knows how to manipulate minds. Etc. Always. *- Several factors and indicators have to point out to the same thing. It still needs an educated human eye (or hella good AI?!). Why anyone can't just use this blindy? Take this for example: But... I mean... to me it's obvious... we're not about to start a bear market when we just got out of one & people sold hard and there hasn't been any buying yet...Makes no sense.. But yeah every one doesn't see this I guess. But anyway, this is obviously not for finding signals, just getting an idea of the general trend and putting the odds in your favor. And you can use the MA's as support/resistance to long or short. when several resistances or support are at the same area it's bonus triple kill! The moving averages, especially higher numbers) are mostly viewed I believe by these wonderful people, the investors "in it for the long term", these wonderful people give us money everytime we hit one of their support or resistance. www.youtube.com This drawing (+ my evil plan ofc) gave me the idea to post this:
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
8
BTC-USD Review of Past Year's Price Deviation from 200 SMAReviewing the past 5 major BTC price corrections it is interesting to note that the crash occurred consistently when the price deviated about 60% from the 200 SMA. The crash in Mid December happened when the price was a staggering 75% above 200 SMA. Even when it recovered there was still a 34% divergence. When this started to climb again above 50% divergence this should have range warning bells. The current crash looks to have found its bottom with it back at a 23% divergence from the 200 SMA. Longs should be able to be placed confidently with new All Time Highs expected before next correction. Lessons - Current crash seems to have bottomed - Look out for the price deviation from 200 SMA. Ensure you are not in significant long positions when it deviates above 50% of the 200 SMA.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by HackneyCrypto
For next time: how to spot the reversal, making money as a bear.Fib extensions. Draw a high from the previous high to the bottom of it's real correction (4h retraces to the 20MA, in BTCUSD's case, work.) Now, extend to the current peak. Is it failing to retest the 0.236? Get out, prepare a to buy at the 0.618 if it holds. 0.618 holds? buy but prepare to sell at 0.382. 0.618 fails? try at 1.0 Buy at 1.0 but prepare to sell at 0.618. 0.618 is now resistance? Congratulations, you have a bearish reversal. Feel free to keep playing this game of buying and selling at fib levels and moving averages: if it will drop to 1.618, sell again at 1. Drop to 2.618, sell at 2.0, drop to 3.618, sell at .. well, 2.0 again if it will reach it. otherwise 2.618 If there's signs of a reversal, you can draw a new fib retracement from the top to the newly minted bottom and repeat the same game up the stairs What i'm trying to say is.. Bitcoin isn't done dropping, but that doenst mean there arent any opportunities.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by robertjulius
day trading BTC: managing the dip and return cycleBoth dipping and recovering price cycles represent good buy-ion points for BTC day trades. There are a multitude of good buy ins given the above indicators and bollinger band overlay (200 day SMA). When price is falling, the lower standard deviation of the bollinger bands are helpful in establishing buy in points. When price is collapsing initially after a high, this is the scariest buy in. However, you can see how EMA 34 and SMA 50 are both far below SMA 200, and exhibiting room for collapse. Once a significant BB low takes place, scraping the lower BB for the last time, there is an opportunity to buy in, with expectation of a set of improving buy-sell cycles. There will be several before the final, parabolic jump of the day, justifying your attendance in the market. I see several very healthy gains, buying these hits along the lower bollinger band, which may surpass the parabolic gain, taking place in the final jump. My contribution is the cup-like trend, traveling the lower range of the bollinger distribution, scraping lower standard deviation points. But the recovering price-pump at the right (4.4%+) is signed by rising prices versus the lower bollinger band, and a combination EMA 34 and MA 50 surging closer to SMA 200. This document is for information and illustrative purposes only. It is not, and should not be regarded as “investment advice” or as a “recommendation” regarding a course of action, including without limitation as those terms are used in any applicable law or regulation
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by mortonpeak
Wanna make money? Stay home from school tomorrowIn grade school a rough/tough bully threatened me to 'stay home from school tomorrow.' I came to school anyway, with a Swiss Army knife in my pocket, ready to rumble. I am sure the corkscrew would have been a wonderful piece of tactical gear. Stay home from school tomorrow. It's gonna dump. That is, unless you like to buy dips. Dips upon dips, upon dips. It's gonna be scary. A good day to ride motorcycles and play with the dog. On the 11th, get up at 6 am. It will be Christmas. That is, unless our buds in CHI/NYC want to hold the price down. But that might scare away everybody except the boys from CHI/NYC, and where would they be without us? This document is for information and illustrative purposes only. It is not, and should not be regarded as “investment advice” or as a “recommendation” regarding a course of action, including without limitation as those terms are used in any applicable law or regulation
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by mortonpeak
Micro-caps stocks candidatesToday I am going to introduce a special search called "Ballistic New Highs" if you have GUTS to play micro-cap. This search finds all stocks hitting a new 52 week price high in ASX. The stocks are sorted by Closing Price divided by Stop Price. The stocks that are at the top of the list have a closing price well above the Stop Price. To consider a bottom entry, I'd consider the stocks prices below $0.10. On 7-Nov-2017, the stocks listed as below: KFE> RT= 1.40 Materials (Dvrsfd Metals/Mng) WBT> RT= 1.40 InfoTech (Semiconductors&Equip) POS> RT= 1.41 Materials (Dvrsfd Metals/Mng) RLC> RT= 1.38 Materials (Dvrsfd Metals/Mng) CLL> RT= 1.41 Materials (Dvrsfd Metals/Mng) As there are 4 out of 5 stocks are categorized at Materials, therefore I use ASX 200-Materials index for a market trend comparison. We have a Market Timing Confirmed Up signal on 9-Oct. Most of the stocks here skyrocketed to new highs.
ASX:WBTEducation
by SoloTraderAU
1
GBPUSD 30 m Trading the 800 SMAHere is a story about the 800 SMA. When you begin your trading session look at each pair you are going to be trading on the 4 H chart. See if any pairs are stuck on the 800 sma. They probably won't move far for 25 bars. Avoid. What ever short time frame you trade from and what ever pairs you trade, make a list of pairs that have been away from the 800 sma for 24 hours or more. Also add to the list any pairs that have been stuck around the 800 sma for 25 BARS and are ready to break away. This helps find what pairs you want to focus on during the day with the rest of your trading strategy. On my chart you will see price come down to the 800 sma 3 different times. If price hesitates by the 800 for several bars then it may get stuck there for 25 bars. If price bounces away from the 800 sma when it comes down to it then price is still in motion and can set up some trading opportunities for your strategies. We have many different strategies to learn on our blog and we are constantly coming out with new strategies for traders to learn every week. Visit us below on the website, Twitter or Facebook. We have a new professional breakout trading strategy posted on our website using the VWMA. Check it out. Watch for our new “Five Candle Mastery Trading Strategy”.
Education
by Tradingstrategyguides
Big 3 Trading Strategy USDCAD 15 m ShortThis is my favorite strategy. You will find a trade using this strategy any time any where. Watch upcoming news but for the opening of the US, Asian and London session this strategy is a sure fire "rob the stage" of the markets. Be patient, let the 2nd rule develop with a candle outside of the ma's. A pull back will naturally happen as the market moves. Then make sure you have a strong continuation candle pattern to enter. Watch your risk ratio when placing your SL. This strategy will work on any market and any time frame. Let your trade run using the TP when price hits the 80 sma or have a fixed pip TP to "close the bag and run to the bank"! I like 30 pips because that is close to how much the market moves before it pulls back normally.
Education
by Tradingstrategyguides