For next time: how to spot the reversal, making money as a bear.Fib extensions.
Draw a high from the previous high to the bottom of it's real correction (4h retraces to the 20MA, in BTCUSD's case, work.)
Now, extend to the current peak.
Is it failing to retest the 0.236? Get out, prepare a to buy at the 0.618 if it holds.
0.618 holds? buy but prepare to sell at 0.382.
0.618 fails? try at 1.0
Buy at 1.0 but prepare to sell at 0.618.
0.618 is now resistance?
Congratulations, you have a bearish reversal.
Feel free to keep playing this game of buying and selling at fib levels and moving averages: if it will drop to 1.618, sell again at 1. Drop to 2.618, sell at 2.0, drop to 3.618, sell at .. well, 2.0 again if it will reach it. otherwise 2.618
If there's signs of a reversal, you can draw a new fib retracement from the top to the newly minted bottom and repeat the same game up the stairs
What i'm trying to say is..
Bitcoin isn't done dropping, but that doenst mean there arent any opportunities.
Moving Averages
day trading BTC: managing the dip and return cycleBoth dipping and recovering price cycles represent good buy-ion points for BTC day trades. There are a multitude of good buy ins given the above indicators and bollinger band overlay (200 day SMA).
When price is falling, the lower standard deviation of the bollinger bands are helpful in establishing buy in points. When price is collapsing initially after a high, this is the scariest buy in. However, you can see how EMA 34 and SMA 50 are both far below SMA 200, and exhibiting room for collapse.
Once a significant BB low takes place, scraping the lower BB for the last time, there is an opportunity to buy in, with expectation of a set of improving buy-sell cycles. There will be several before the final, parabolic jump of the day, justifying your attendance in the market.
I see several very healthy gains, buying these hits along the lower bollinger band, which may surpass the parabolic gain, taking place in the final jump.
My contribution is the cup-like trend, traveling the lower range of the bollinger distribution, scraping lower standard deviation points. But the recovering price-pump at the right (4.4%+) is signed by rising prices versus the lower bollinger band, and a combination EMA 34 and MA 50 surging closer to SMA 200.
This document is for information and illustrative purposes only. It is not, and should not be regarded as “investment advice” or as a “recommendation” regarding a course of action, including without limitation as those terms are used in any applicable law or regulation
Wanna make money? Stay home from school tomorrowIn grade school a rough/tough bully threatened me to 'stay home from school tomorrow.' I came to school anyway, with a Swiss Army knife in my pocket, ready to rumble. I am sure the corkscrew would have been a wonderful piece of tactical gear.
Stay home from school tomorrow. It's gonna dump.
That is, unless you like to buy dips. Dips upon dips, upon dips.
It's gonna be scary. A good day to ride motorcycles and play with the dog.
On the 11th, get up at 6 am. It will be Christmas.
That is, unless our buds in CHI/NYC want to hold the price down. But that might scare away everybody except the boys from CHI/NYC, and where would they be without us?
This document is for information and illustrative purposes only. It is not, and should not be regarded as “investment advice” or as a “recommendation” regarding a course of action, including without limitation as those terms are used in any applicable law or regulation
Example of an Exponential Moving Average (EMA)The exponential moving average may indicate an uptrend or a downtrend. It is a trend indicator.
A bullish signal is generated when prices move above the EMA, so make a long. A bearish signal is generated when prices move below the EMA, make a short.
The EMA works very well in long trends, however, does not work well in lateral movements or short periods and in those cases EMA gives false signals.
Micro-caps stocks candidatesToday I am going to introduce a special search called "Ballistic New Highs" if you have GUTS to play micro-cap.
This search finds all stocks hitting a new 52 week price high in ASX. The stocks are sorted by Closing Price divided by Stop Price. The stocks that are at the top of the list have a closing price well above the Stop Price.
To consider a bottom entry, I'd consider the stocks prices below $0.10.
On 7-Nov-2017, the stocks listed as below:
KFE> RT= 1.40 Materials (Dvrsfd Metals/Mng)
WBT> RT= 1.40 InfoTech (Semiconductors&Equip)
POS> RT= 1.41 Materials (Dvrsfd Metals/Mng)
RLC> RT= 1.38 Materials (Dvrsfd Metals/Mng)
CLL> RT= 1.41 Materials (Dvrsfd Metals/Mng)
As there are 4 out of 5 stocks are categorized at Materials, therefore I use ASX 200-Materials index for a market trend comparison.
We have a Market Timing Confirmed Up signal on 9-Oct. Most of the stocks here skyrocketed to new highs.
Heikin-Ashi Monthly Trend StrategyTrade current Heikin-Ashi monthly trend long or short/bonds/cash
Reverse trade with a decisive break of the 7 period Moving Average at close of monthly candle
Decisive means non-Doji candle with body 50% or more above/below the 7MA
Doji or indecisive break of 7MA may just be consolidation, stay with current trend
GBPUSD 30 m Trading the 800 SMAHere is a story about the 800 SMA. When you begin your trading session look at each pair you are going to be trading on the 4 H chart. See if any pairs are stuck on the 800 sma. They probably won't move far for 25 bars. Avoid. What ever short time frame you trade from and what ever pairs you trade, make a list of pairs that have been away from the 800 sma for 24 hours or more. Also add to the list any pairs that have been stuck around the 800 sma for 25 BARS and are ready to break away. This helps find what pairs you want to focus on during the day with the rest of your trading strategy.
On my chart you will see price come down to the 800 sma 3 different times. If price hesitates by the 800 for several bars then it may get stuck there for 25 bars. If price bounces away from the 800 sma when it comes down to it then price is still in motion and can set up some trading opportunities for your strategies.
We have many different strategies to learn on our blog and we are constantly coming out with new strategies for traders to learn every week. Visit us below on the website, Twitter or Facebook.
We have a new professional breakout trading strategy posted on our website using the VWMA. Check it out.
Watch for our new “Five Candle Mastery Trading Strategy”.
Big 3 Trading Strategy USDCAD 15 m ShortThis is my favorite strategy. You will find a trade using this strategy any time any where. Watch upcoming news but for the opening of the US, Asian and London session this strategy is a sure fire "rob the stage" of the markets. Be patient, let the 2nd rule develop with a candle outside of the ma's. A pull back will naturally happen as the market moves. Then make sure you have a strong continuation candle pattern to enter. Watch your risk ratio when placing your SL. This strategy will work on any market and any time frame. Let your trade run using the TP when price hits the 80 sma or have a fixed pip TP to "close the bag and run to the bank"! I like 30 pips because that is close to how much the market moves before it pulls back normally.
Tip 10: Slow Decline Will AccelerateTip 10: Slow decline will accelerate, don’t copy the bottom and wait for slump
Tip 10 needs to meet three conditions as follows:
1. The price declines along the MA5 and MA10;
2. The rate of fall is not sharp, but new lows are created continuously;
3. The price will accelerate and deviate from the MA.
Usually, the price slides slowly, and correction is small bullish candles, then rise again along the MA5(attack line) and MA10(defense line). If the market move as this, don’t guess where is the bottom, just sell at correction. When the market accelerates as several large candles with long wick and price is far away from MA5, the phased bottom is likely to form.
This is more effective in big time frame.
Tip 9: Slow Rise Will AccelerateTip 9: Slow rise will accelerate, don’t copy the top and wait for bound
Tip 9 needs to meet three conditions as follows:
1. The price increases slowly along the MA5 and MA10;
2. The rate of rise is not sharp, but new highs are created constantly;
3. The price will accelerate and deviate from the MA5.
Usually, the price increases slowly, and correction is small bearish candles, then rise again along the MA5(attack line) and MA10(defense line).If the market moves as this, don’t guess where is the top, just buy at the correction. When the market accelerate as several large candles with long wick and the price is far away from MA5, then the stage top is likely to form.This is more effective in big time frame.
Using 150 and 200 simple moving averages www.tradingview.com
Using 150 and 200 simple moving averages produces interesting results. When 150ma goes under 200ma it usually produces a price increase. However, since 150ma is shorter period, and all moving averages want to find their right place, it will go back up where it belongs, above 200ma. This also produces another interesting result, which is price decrease. This price drop however is usually followed by a sharp price increase as can be observed in SPX.
Moving Average - Educational StudyHi guys, I would like to present to you this educational trading method that was adopted by Rayner Teo-1.72% . ( search him up , he is a great trader and mentor )
Basically the moving averages act as a support and resistance levels and can indicate an ongoing trend , you can use them to time your entries and ride the trend.
Keep your SL trailed alongside with the trend.
You can keep adding positions every time the price hits the EMA's and shows that it respects them as a valid support/resistance area!
You collect your profit only when you think the trend has ended and and it's time to close the trades.
Update status
Relationship between Bund and Euro US DollarWhat is the Bund?
The Bund is the German 10-Year Treasury bill, also known as a government bond. A holder of a bond is a creditor, and the issuer of a bond is called a borrower or debtor. When the price of the Bund increases, the yield received on that bond decreases and vice versa.
What is the relationship between Bund and EURUSD? Why is this relationship there?
The relationship between the Bund and EURUSD is inversely correlated - when the yield of the Bund increases, the Euro is bullish, and when it decreases it is bearish. One thing to note is that the price of a bond and the yield received is also inversely correlated.
The relationship is there because during periods of uncertainty, people generally look for less risky positions (they may liquidate any equity positions they may hold and invest in bonds if they have low confidence in the stock market). This new demand for bonds pushes the price higher, but forces the yields down. A quick equation can show why this occurs:
Let's say we have a bond priced at £1,000 with a 10% coupon rate (the amount you can expect to return per annum). The equation would be (£100/£1000) where yield = coupon value/price of bond. If the price of the bond increases to £2000, the yield decreases (£100/£2000) = 5% PA.
For a bond holder looking to sell the bond at a later date, this is good as they have already locked in the rate of interest that they will be paying. However, as a buyer of a bond, you want to be buying low to lock in a higher yield.
A concise explanation about what influences bond prices can be found at Investopedia (www.investopedia.com). I have borrowed from that below.
The factor that influences a bond more than any other is the level of prevailing interest rates in the economy. When interest rates rise, the prices of bonds in the market fall, thereby raising the yield of the older bonds and bringing them into line with newer bonds being issued with higher coupons. When interest rates fall, the prices of bonds in the market rise, thereby lowering the yield of the older bonds and bringing them into line with newer bonds being issued with lower coupons.
Bond yields and FX
The spreads of the 10Y bonds can be used to gauge the direction for currencies as well. When the yield spread increases in favour of a certain currency, it is likely that you will see that currency appreciate vs others. When a yield spread tops or bottoms out, you can expect the related currency to begin to fall/rise in the following months. Playing on interest rate differentials is known as carry trading.
Above graph explained
The Bund is testing back to its 200 day EMA. On the recent occasions when it has tested here, it has failed to break above, however, the upward momentum appears to be intact .
In the short term there is clear divergence between Bund & EURUSD.
Furthermore our model shows the Bund as being a weakest bear suggesting it would like to go & turn bullish and indeed it would be back in a bull trend through 154 vs close last night of 152.9.
Form your own opinions.
Losses may exceed deposits.
EURUSD - Daily Chart very simple "trend following strategy". . This is a very simple, yet very effective trend following strategy.
1. Display price using Heiken Ashi candlestick. (Removes a lot of the noise and allows to see smoother movement).
2. Trading daily charts allows less whipsaw movement and much cleaner entry/exits.
3. Confirm if trend is UP, DOWN or SIDEWAYS.
Entry Signal is:
1. Medium to Large HA candle changes from Green to Red, or vice versa shooting up/dn through the 8-WMA & 14-MA.
2. The candle MUST breech both moving average lines to validate entry long or short.
3. Enter trade Long/Short on close of that candle.
4. RSI 90% of time will be in Overbought or Oversold area when candle breech trigger occurs. (further validating entry)
5. Typically the large HA candle that breeches the two moving average lines will NOT have a wick below it.
* Avoid entering during times of consolidation, characterized by mix of red/green HA candles with wicks on both sides.
* Look for entries after touch of support or resistance areas.
* Trade becomes invalid AFTER ENTRY if at any time a candlestick changes color and shoots up or down in the
opposite direction crossing BOTH of the 8/14 moving average lines.