Support/Resistance Short StrategyChart TF: 4H
Indicators: 14 EMA, 40 EMA, Vortex Indicator 30, RSI 22, TRIX 10
I have been tweaking this simple, yet profitable, system for a few weeks and wanted to share it with the public to receive feedback/opinions.
Short Entry Conditions:
1) 40 EMA > 14 EMA.
2) A bearish candle must break below a support level.
3) The price must be under both EMAs.
4) VI(-) > VI(+) by at least .15
5) RSI < 50
6) TRIX < 0
If all conditions are met, enter short.
Stop Loss:
1) Set SL to the closest resistance.
Take Profit:
1) Set TP 1:1 R/R with the stop loss.
In this recent 28 day stretch, 02/19/20 - 03/18/20, this strategy gave 5 successful short entries and over 300 pips on NZDCHF.
Moving Averages
S&P 500 😷 Coronavirus Panic Selling, but should you worry? 😱🚨PANIC SELLING of stocks due to Coronavirus...😷 in fear that earnings for top companies will drop as productivity comes to a halt. 😩
⚠️ Historically, the SARS outbreak did not cause the stock market to dump farther as we were in the tail end of the Recession.
Coronavirus appears to be coincidentally at the top of a market rally and is just a social trigger to inspire fear, uncertainty, and doubt. FUD 😱
This will allow institutional players to take your money and buy back at cheaper prices. 👿
(The 200 Week Moving Average.)
Ask yourself this... 🤔 because of Coronavirus will you stop logging onto Facebook, will you discard your Apple Macbook, will you stop buying goods from Amazon, will you stop watching Netflix, will your office stop using Microsoft Office?
If the answer is no... DO NOT PANIC SELL your retirement account, please. 🙅♀️
Since 1977, which direction is the stock market moving?
Answer: Up.
☝️☝️☝️
RSI Bearish Divergence playing out:
(Indicator below the chart with squiggly blue lines)
Price makes higher tops, while magnitude of price (RSI) makes lower tops. Warren Buffet and Jeff Bezos already sold their stocks for cash.
No one cares until now... Who do you think will buy the stocks you are panic selling?
Open close EMAsSimple indicator which paints the same EMA twice (default to 20), one set to open one set to close. The idea being the when the price is closing > the open on average number goes up.
Green on top trends up, red on top trends down. Only really backtested this on HTFs, works well on daily, interesting on weekly but you lose a lot of wicks.
Try it with the candles hidden.
200 EMA - best use for entries!I don't use indicators, they're not my style, they lag, they repaint; and in my opinion they don't work.
The 200 EMA on DAILY can be useful because of how slow it is. We can use it to filter the direction of which way we trade.
Price ABOVE 200 ema = ONLY BUY
Price BELOW 200 ema = ONLY SELL
Then drop timeframes for your entries via your strategy whatever that may be. If your strategy says go long but price is below EMA, don't take the trade etc...
Ignore the EMA on other timeframes lower than the daily. You want a slow daily direction indicator.
Don't blindly trade this, wait until price is clearly past the EMA and maintaining a good distance from it.
Use it as a guideline if you struggle working out fundamentals to help you filter a direction to trade.
NOT TO REPLACE FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS!!!
BTCUSDT 4H DOUBLE DEATH CROSS LONG TRADE STRATEGYThe double death cross strategy employs one more moving average that will help you anticipate when the death cross signal will occur. The third moving average is the 100-day MA, which is a medium-term MA situated between the other two moving averages.
Step #1: Wait for the 50-day EMA to cross below the 100-day EMA. The two moving averages also need to converge with the price action. You can read more about day trading price action here.
If we get the crossover of the 50-day MA (blue line) and 100-day MA (orange line) at the same time the price is testing those moving averages like it’s doing on the GBP/USD chart below, that’s the best-case situation for trade because we can define the risk.
The rule you need to keep in mind is that when the MAs converge with the price you have to get ready for the ride because it is going to get BUMPY!
Step #2: Multiple entry strategy: Sell1 when we close below 50-day MA and 100-day MA. Sell2 when we break and close below 200-day MA.
Using multiple entries to improve your average entry price can be the best way to approach the death cross signal. Scaling into a position is our preferred trading method when looking to capture a large price move in a currency pair.
The fact that the price was near the death cross signal, it created tension in the market that eventually will lead to a sharp move to the downside.
We pull the trigger on the first half of the trade once we close below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages.
If at the moment when the death cross developed we’re already trading slightly below the two moving averages, sell at the market the moment we close below.
The second half of our position is entered once we break and close below the 200-day moving average.
**Note: It’s important to remember that the success of the death cross signal relays on this simple trade secret that price and the two moving averages need to converge.
Keep it 'simple stupid' is not just a simple aphorism, but it’s an old truth that can make the difference between losing and making money trading.
Step #3: Hide your protective Stop Loss above 50-day MA and 100-day MA
The most important thing we need to define when trading is our risk. If you want to be a profitable trader you really need a limited risk. This is the type of death cross trades that we want to pull the trigger on.
If the price were to move back above those moving averages, we can safely assume this is yet another false trade signal. In this trade case scenario, we’re risking a little and our reward is potentially much bigger.
So, the best place to hide your protective stop loss is above the 50-day MA and 100-day MA.
Step #4: Choose your own Take Profit strategy or use this Two-step process for the take profit strategy: Mark on your chart the high of the candle when the 50-day MA crossed below 200-day EMA. Take profit when this high is broken.
Our take profit strategy might seem a little bit complex, but once we break down the steps you need to follow, it will make more sense why we’ve chosen this approach.
The first thing you have to do is to remember what we said at the beginning of the article which is that when the price doesn’t converge with the two MAs this is a death cross false signal.
In the example below, we can observe this type of price action.
Now all you have to do is to mark the high of the candle when the death cross happened and take profit as soon as the high gets broken.
**Note: The above was an example of a SELL trade using the death cross strategy. Use the same rules for a BUY trade – but in reverse, in which case we have the golden cross trading strategy.
Conclusion - Death Cross Stocks
Following the death cross trade signal can be a very efficient approach to identify bearish sentiment in the market. If you want to switch from short-term trading and try capturing larger trends the double death cross trading strategy can help you achieve your goals.
You must know that the death cross definition is universally applicable to any other asset classes. We can have a death cross crypto or a death cross gold the same way we can have a death cross S&P 500. Capturing and detecting bearish trends can be a hard task because downtrends are typically different than bullish trends. However, the double death cross strategy gives you a systematic way to tackle bearish trends.
CFDs on WTI CRUDE OIL 1HHOW TO USE 200 EMA TO BUY COMMODITIES.
1 - 200 EMA standard measurement of bullish
or bearish trends in commodity market.
2 - MA breakouts have multiple false breakouts.
3 - Wait for a breakout and then a retest of EMA.
4 - Buy at breakout of high of breakout candle.
If you want to predict which commodity trading levels are worth to base your trade-off, then look no further than the 200-day moving average.
The 200-day EMA is regarded as being the standard measurement of bullish and bearish trends in the commodity market. However, a breakout of the 200-day EMA is not always a reliable signal. The reason is that like with all technical indicators it’s prone to give multiple false signals.
A simple solution to this very common problem is to wait for the breakout of the 200-day EMA and a retest.
This means that you can buy/sell commodities at the first retest of the 200-day EMA.
Now, we know that not many traders have the right amount of capital to invest in the long-term.
Holding a position for a yearlong period is not suitable for everyone.
If you don’t have a big account balance and the patience to ride the cyclical commodity trends, you’re better off if you stick with short term commodity trading
BTCUSD is above the ichimoku cloud on the weekly !BTCUSD: golden cross & above ichimoku cloud on the WEEKLY.
Both happened only a few times in the price history of Bitcoin.
(blue) Sometimes it marked the BEGINNING OF BULL MARKETS.
(purple) Sometimes it was misleading, but then it did not lasted long.
Note:
I guess (not sure) that EMA 200 days translates to EMA 29 weeks, and EMA 50 days to EMA 7 weeks. Is that a correct assumption?
Happy trading!
Bitcoin Space Launch - a basic EMA pictorial (Bull Run to 9k)Use snapshot link below if the text and objects are overlapping. Sorry, I'm still learning how to publish content. Tips and suggestions welcome!
What is this?
Quickly learn some basics on EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages). Right.. the E does NOT stand for "Emotional"... However, if your are trading too often without making gains, then you may need to learn about those too! Also, don't get upset with me if BTC crashes tomorrow...
Which reminds me to inform you that... I am not a professional, but I do invest responsibly and believe that you should too! Please do you own research! (DYOR)
If you dig this pictorial or the full history chart of BTCUSD, then please give a Like! Also, I believe you can "make it yours" for future reference by click on the share button and selecting "Make it yours".
Thanks and enjoy your trades!
Bitcoin : Premature Elliot wave countHello fellas, welcome back with our technical analysis about bitcoin. This time, I want to focus on potential movement in the next 7 days of bitcoin. And because current structure is beautifully related with the past performance of bitcoin, I will try to make a projection with elliot wave count. Let's get it to the point.
Yesterday, I saw 2 important things that occur on bitcoin. First, the price breaks the resistance region around $7500 region and the median line of the huge down trend channel. And second most crucial thing is that the volume was increasing significantly when the price breaks out of this resistance. The fact that the price is now testing again the next resistance zone around $8050 region which represents the parabolic rally in short term, I see that these conditions usually occur on the 3rd wave which usually become the longest wave between the 3 impulse waves in EW. That's why, I give you my premature count that could possibly occur in the future and for this premature count, I will assume that current pattern is to complete the ABC structure in higher degree to give it a test toward the upper line of the channel and the area of $9000 region which in fact relate each other.
We might see a little retracement ahead for short term, before another push toward the $9000. The rally clearly haven't finished yet as we haven't found any sign of divergence in higher degree.
Bitcoin : Confirmation of B, officially lose the minor supportHello fellas, here we go again with the analysis of bitcoin in short term view. Let's make it short and essentials.
First of all, This analysis will continue the previous bitcoin analysis and bias on the short term which is still valid for now and if in my previous analysis, I said that there might be a potential of the price to reach the $9000 region again to complete the B wave structure, It's now become invalid whatsoever. Here in this newest analysis about bitcoin in daily view, I feel that the abc structure has already completed to confirm the B wave in higher degree.
Beside the elliot wave count which is still premature and this count however is very subjective to every trader's bias, I have to find some confluences reasons that might support my current bias for down trend. So, here are some confluence reasons that make me believe that the price is entering the bearish stage again :
1. The price has already broken down the minor support around $7150 region
2. Looking at the histogram on MACD oin daily time frame, we can easily deduce that the bears are in control for now with the histogram forms a lower high structure and the lower moving average is very likely to crosses down the higher period of moving average in MACD.
3. A series of lower low and lower high has already formed and it simply denies my previous bounce bias.
4. Based on higher degree of elliot wave count, there is still 1 more wave that potentially occur during this very complicated correction structure which I will label it as the W wave in higher degree.
5. Looking at the btcusd long positions on bitfinex, we can see that the long is starting to decline in the last few days and will indicate the long squeeze to occur very soon in the future.
In conclusion, I will look for the long entry around the red region between $6000-$6300 considering there is a huge price action activity occur at that area which make this as another strongest support in the mid term.