[Education] How I Lost Everything To TradingI wasn't always profitable. I lost a lot of money when I first started trading forex. I don't remember how I got started learning forex. But I know I started when I was serving in the army. I borrowed books from the library, watched many YouTube videos on trading. I was very knowledgeable on technical analysis. I know the concepts so well I could vomit them out to you. I didn't follow up on trading that much after my service ended.
I came back to trading when I was working as an auditor. The fact that I had to work long hours with little pay brings me to look for an alternative source of income. I found out that we can make money through percentage allocation money management (PAMM). You invest your money into a trader, and whatever profit they earn, you will give them a % cut, and you keep the rest.
I found this trader with a solid trade record. He has 3 years record with an average of 20% profit a month. He is trading with a $500,000 account. I thought that this trader was good. I calculated how fast my money will grow by putting money with him every month. I put in $1,000 for a start. A few months passed and it showed good results. I see the balance in my account increased too. That was when I decided to put all my savings in. I put $10,000 in, which was everything that I had.
I was working overseas that day. I checked my account after work. I saw that my account balance was $0.98. I thought it was some bug. I refreshed the page a few times. I saw that the account manager has risked everything in 1 trade. I was shocked. I felt numb. What was going on?
Red Flags
I did some research online, found out that the broker actually fakes the trades of “top trader” over a span of 2 years. When more suckers like me put my money in these PAMM, they will burst the account with 1 stupid trade. I believe this stupid trade was not even executed, but a front for them to scam all our money.
I realized that there were many red flags to begin with. None of the top traders offered any 3rd party verification through Myfxbook, MQL5, or even Fxblue. They don’t even give their investor passwords which are read-only to investors.
It was a painful lesson. But it led me to the journey of trading by myself. From then on, I put in a lot of hours studying and backtesting technical analysis.
Even right now, I’m not comfortable with putting my money with PAMM for diversification. I will need to know the trader, understand his trading style and the potential risk to reward of the trader.
The Problem Is You
Letting mathematics formulas do the compounding for your money is a bad expectation. You think trading is easy. You can trade from your room, or even overseas using your phone. Many people are posting screenshots of their profits consistently on the social media. You think that trading is the way to achieve financial freedom. This is a legit business and many people has done it. you can do it too. You start to play around with leverage, only to get your account wiped out after 4 trades.
You deposit $100 more. you are on a winning streak. You have 4 wins in a row. you look at your account balance increased from $100 to $1,000. You’re unstoppable. You continued overleveraging your account. I mean, what can stop you now right? You’re basically a god of trading with 4 win streak. next thing you know, you wiped out your $1,000 balance.
You repeat this cycle till you’re sick and tired. you proceed to find the next holy grail.
Breaking The Loop
Insanity Is Doing the Same Thing Over and Over Again and Expecting Different Results - Albert Einstein
You need to break this cycle. you are only repeating what you’re losing.
Relying on other sources for trading will not get you far. Yes, you might found a profitable signal provider. What if he don’t want to provide his service anymore? You will be back at where you begin, looking for another signal provider again. You will need a lot of time and waste money to make sure that the signal provider is legit. what if your profitable signal provider is experiencing a losing streak? will you continue to follow the signals? or will you start having doubt? will you take responsibility for all these losing trades? or will you blame your signal provider?
To be consistently profitable in the long run, you have to trade by yourself. Everyone’s view on the market is different. You can be looking at a long on EURUSD, but I could have a bearish bias.
Knowing how to trade by yourself is the key to success. You don’t need to rely on signal providers. You don't need to constantly monitoring your phone to check if there are any signals.
You know the risk and reward and your expected win rate by trading yourself. It is you who put in the hard work of backtesting. You will be putting your own trades. You determine the amount of risk you will take. You take trades based on your lifestyle and personality.
Do The Uncomfortable Stuff
Trading involves a lot of uncertainty. This is a hustle that you can earn money without knowing what can happen next. Even though I'm a profitable trader, I do not know what will happen next. I can only guarantee that either I will lose the next trade with -1%, or a profit. I focus on what I can control, not what I expect for things to happen.
When you trade according to your own plan, you understand the risk you are taking. It is scary to take your own trades at first. You don't know if your analysis is correct. You don't know if you will be successful. You don't know if you will be profitable. This is what every trader will experience. On my first trade, I was having adrenaline rush when price came back to tap my entry. I was looking at the chart for the whole day, even though I'm trading on the 15 minutes timeframe.
I know and understand that I cannot control the price. But psychologically, I'm not strong enough to let my trade play out. This trade ended up with a loss.
You have to start somewhere to learn how to trade by yourself. Without this, you will forever be trapped within the cycle of unprofitability.
If you keep telling yourself that trading alone is hard and you are unable to be profitable, you are right. You are constantly letting your subconscious mind get used to this message. Your subconscious never rests. Even when you’re asleep, your subconscious is still running in the background. It will keep telling your body what needs to be done to keep you functioning.
Being Trapped In The Loop
I was the same as you. I skipped from strategy to strategy, trying to find the holy grail. I tried many things. from EA to signals to mentorship.
I earned some, but I lost more. I lose before I even start. Buying EAs cost money. Subscribing to signals cost money. Signing up for mentorships cost money.
I tried EAs that uses grid and martingale. I bought indicators that repaint themselves after price actions have happened. I’ve tried EAs made by creators who adjust it to best fit past data, but are actually not profitable in the live market. I’ve tried signals that gives a 20 pips TP 1, but 100 pips stop loss. They make big celebrations with fire emojis when TP 1 hits. When TP 2 of 40 pips hits, they do the same thing. Weekly result summary are also posted which includes both TP 1 of 20 pips and TP 2 of 40 pips. They remove losing signals too. This looks like it’s a profitable signals, but the risk to reward ratio for their signals are shit with low win rate.
Some of the mentorships are cash grab. You pay them to give you video recordings and information. You can find them for free on Babypips.
It’s debatable that all mentorships are a scam. Some of the mentorships I joined actually provided great values. I’m able to look into how profitable traders are trading. I can get insights on their thought process behind their trades. There is a platform for me to do my analysis. Mentors will comment on my analysis, telling me what I could do to improve, or even add their insights. Some also provide 1-1 calls which is what all mentorships should offer. Sometimes, it’s faster and easier to explain through a call rather than on text. Furthermore, they record the 1-1 sessions and I can watch them in the future. These 1-1 sessions can be Q&As, or even backtesting session. This is where I will do the backtest and the mentor will comment on my thought processes.
I would consider myself to be lucky to have only lost $10,000. If I had more money, I’d lose way more for sure. After losing that $10,000, it led me on a journey to be a profitable trader now. I have no regrets on this journey.
Mentorship
Most people are unwilling to spend money for courses, knowing well that there are thousands of FREE online resources out there. But the problem lies in how do you sieve out all the unnecessary and useless information from such a huge amount of resources? Mentorships are made to solve these problems. They are built to solve and educate you on a specific skill and knowledge that you want to learn. They are built by people who have experienced the same problem as you did.
This is the same as spending money on university courses. Most of you are willing to pay thousands of dollars and 3 - 5 years of your lives to get a 4 - 5 figured day job, yet you don’t bear to spend that few hundred of dollars to get the specific skillset that you need as an investment.
My last mentorship costs me $2,000. I can tell you that it's the best investment I've ever made. Through the mentorship, it gives me different perspective from an active community. We look at the same chart every single day and anyone is free to critic our work. The 1-1 calls are also important to me. They gave me a good foundation, and I learnt a lot of advanced skills like psychology and risk management.
I got to a point where making $916.05 is as easy as placing 1 trade, and getting 2% return on a 0.5% risk. Yes this profit comes from only 1 trade on my $50,000 account.
I've covered the cost of mentorship through my funded account payouts. This return on investment will continue to accumulate. Sooner or later, I will be earning back whatever I've lost, and to quit my 9-5 job to trade full time.
Stay consistent. Stay safe. Success is just around the corner.
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Risk Management
Breaking the Cycle: The Perils of Repeating Trading Mistakes
Trading in financial markets can be a challenging endeavor. It requires a combination of skill, knowledge, and adaptability to navigate the complexities of the market. Unfortunately, many traders fall into a common trap - they repeat their mistakes, often leading to failure. This article will explore why repeating mistakes in trading can be detrimental and explain how studying these errors can pave the way for long-term success in the markets.
1. The Importance of Recognizing Mistakes:
One of the primary reasons traders repeat mistakes is the failure to recognize them in the first place.
2. The Consequences of Repeating Trading Mistakes:
Continually making the same mistakes in trading can have severe consequences.
By understanding the negative impact of repeated mistakes, traders can be motivated to break the cycle.
3. Psychological Factors:
Psychological biases and emotions significantly contribute to repeating trading mistakes.
Studying trading mistakes with a reflective mindset is crucial for professional growth. Techniques such as journaling, performance reviews, and seeking feedback can help traders gain valuable insights.
5. Identifying Patterns and Developing Strategies:
Mistakes often reveal patterns that can be detected and analyzed.
6. Continuous Learning and Adaptation:
The key to trading success lies in continuous learning and adaptation. The pursuit of knowledge is essential to avoid repeating trading mistakes.
7. Implementing Risk Management Measures:
Developing sound risk management practices helps prevent repeat mistakes and protect against potential losses.
Conclusion:
Repeated mistakes in trading are detrimental to success, both financially and psychologically. However, by acknowledging and studying these errors, traders can learn valuable lessons and refine their strategies. Through continuous learning, self-reflection, and effective risk management, traders can break the cycle of repeating mistakes, leading to improved performance and long-term success in the trading world.
Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
I want to share with you some points about Risk ManagementThis topic is so important, that´s why I wanted to share it with you and hope I can reach as much people as possible. Hope it will help some :)
I saw in the last years many who crashed their accounts very hard, they lost a lot of money and for some it was very dreadful!
It is hard to watch this people how they burn money and bring even his own family in financial danger. That´s why risk management in trading is so heavily important, to keep yourself and your life in balance.
May be some will find very helpful, or some will remember this rules again :)
I will keep it a bit shorter here as in my book, but the main points are still mentioned!
I can´t say it often enough, always keep your rules during trading. Trading is not the way to get rich quick, it is a serious and hard business! It take a lot of time to learn, it requires a lot of patience and it will happen a lot of failures.
This failures are even more important than your success! Success will not open up how it will not work, failures will.
But let´s talk about risk management!
For each investment you have to consider you take for each trade the risk to lose money, that´s why it is mandatory to handle each investment with a good risk/reward distribution.
You have to keep in mind, the determined risk/reward is only theoretically and can result complete different. But with knowledge you can dedicate a good entry for your trades to keep your risk as low as possible.
Determine important support and resistance levels and think about all situations what could happen and what will you do, if you are going into the red or into the green? Which levels are the best entries and exits?
This all will help you to determine your riks/reward ratio.
What is the Risk/Reward Ratio?
Successful day traders are generally aware of both, the potential risk and potential reward before entering a trade.
The goal of a day trader is to place trades where the potential reward outweighs the potential risk.
These trades would be considered to have a good risk/reward ratio.
A risk/reward ratio is simply the amount of money you plan to risk, compared to the amount of money you believe you can gain.
For example, if you think a potential trade may result in either a $400 profit or $100 loss, the trade would have a risk/reward ratio of 1:4, making it a favorable setup. Contrarily, if you risk $100 to make $100, the trade has a risk/reward ratio of 1:1, giving you the same type of unfavorable odds that you can find in a casino.
Which ratio should you desire?
Like described above, finding trades with high risk/reward ratios (1:2 or higher), will help you maintain higher average profits and lower average losses, making your trading strategy more sustainable.
The common suggestion between traders is a distribution of minimum 1:2 ratio. In reality there are often even better ratios available, if you do your technical chart analysis or financial stock analysis.
But what should you do if you have to cut losses?
We have to place our stop loss right below our support or other important levels we determined before.
The purpose is to cut losses before they grow too large. Stopping out of a losing trade can be one of the hardest things for traders to do consistently. However, failing to take stops can result in margin calls, unnecessarily large losses, and ultimately account blowouts.
How big should I enter a position?
To lower your risk I recommend to think about your size to enter a position.
Overall you shouldn´t risk money you need, only deposit money in your broker you can afford.
Entering small can be the smartest way to safe your account. I suggest that because of four reasons:
1. You don´t risk to much of your funds and your stop loss should be tight anyway.
2. You can average down if the price is going in the other direction, but consider this option only if you are sure what you are doing.
3. You can buy the dips/pullbacks if the trend is strong and still heading in your desired direction.
4. Your emotional control is stronger if the price movement is heading in the wrong direction.
This brings us to the next topic.
Should you use leverage?
Yes I know, big leverage will give you big gains...but as a beginner you will not have the experience to know which trade has a very big potential or not.
Even experienced traders use only a small amount to enter a position and not the whole fund.
If you use leverage the losses can be much higher and the problem with that is, if you lose money, your leverage will also decrease significantly and the losses are harder to recover after each loss.
So what is the answer of the question, should you use leverage?
For beginners we can easily answer: Take your hands of a big leverage!
You can so hardly blow up yourself with that tool, it is ridiculous. Your way back into the profit zone will probably take years.
But you have to save yourself and after a period of time, a period of taking profits and cutting losses you will gain knowledge until you feel much more comfortable on the market and you understand how trading really works, then you can consider to use leverage.
Conclusion:
As I said, I want to share only some big points about this topic, simple and understandable, because I think many new investors don´t understand how important that topic is!
Safe yourself and have fun in trading and learning!
Sincerely,
TradeandGrow
Trade safe!
Unveiling the Advantages of Trading a Single Currency Pair
Introduction:
In the world of foreign exchange (forex) trading, traders have an array of currency pairs to choose from. Among the various strategies employed by forex traders, a popular approach is to focus on trading a single currency pair. While some may argue that diversification across multiple currencies is more beneficial, trading one currency pair comes with its own set of advantages. In this article, we will explore these benefits and shed light on why concentrating on a single currency pair can maximize your trading potential.
1. Increased Specialization:
By focusing on a single currency pair, traders gain the boon of deep specialization. They can dedicate their time, energy, and resources to thoroughly studying and understanding the dynamics, trends, and drivers specific to that particular currency pair. In-depth knowledge allows traders to make more informed decisions, leading to higher chances of profitability.
2. Clarity in Market Analysis:
Trading a single currency pair enables traders to develop a comprehensive understanding of the factors driving that particular pair's movement. They can delve into technical analysis, monitor news releases, and study relevant economic indicators with greater precision and efficiency. This clarity in market analysis helps traders identify patterns and make accurate predictions, consequently enhancing their trading strategies.
3. Enhanced Risk Management:
Concentrating on one currency pair enables traders to manage risk more effectively. They can closely track and analyze historical data, volatility patterns, and overall market behavior.
4. Time Management Advantage:
Trading a single currency pair allows traders to manage their time more efficiently. Instead of spreading their attention across multiple pairs, which require continuous monitoring and analysis, traders can focus on one pair and streamline their research efforts. This time management advantage permits traders to conduct thorough analyses, develop effective trading strategies, and implement risk management techniques without being overwhelmed by the sheer volume of currency pairs.
5. Optimized Trade Execution:
Trading a single currency pair empowers traders to execute trades with greater precision and speed. Being highly specialized in a particular pair enables traders to spot opportunities promptly and take advantage of favorable trade setups.
Conclusion:
While diversification has its merits, trading a single currency pair offers unique advantages that can significantly impact a trader's success. Increased specialization, clarity in market analysis, enhanced risk management, time management advantage, optimized trade execution, and the potential for becoming an expert are some of the key benefits that traders can enjoy by focusing on one currency pair. As with any trading strategy, it is essential to conduct thorough research and practice disciplined risk management to realize the full potential of your trading endeavors
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❌ The Significance of Stop Loss:Essential for Successful TradingThe Significance of Stop Loss: Essential for Successful Trading and Consistent Profits
The majority of seasoned forex traders unanimously emphasize the significance of implementing stop losses in all trading strategies. Unfortunately, beginners and newcomers tend to overlook this essential rule initially, but eventually, they either grasp its importance or cease trading due to consistent losses. Let's delve into the reasons why a stop loss is crucial for achieving successful trading and consistent profits.
Understanding Stop Loss In Trading
The Stop Loss is a specialized order that serves as a safeguard against trading losses by automatically closing positions when a specific price level is reached. Seasoned traders widely regard the Stop Loss as a pivotal element for successful and profitable trading. This viewpoint is difficult to dispute, especially considering the unfortunate outcomes that often befall beginners who underestimate its importance. Interestingly, even experienced traders, who have achieved remarkable heights in their trading careers, continue to utilize Stop Losses as a testament to their effectiveness.
From a technical perspective, a Stop Loss order can be likened to a typical pending order, triggered when the price reaches a predetermined value. However, the crucial distinction lies in the fact that a Stop Loss order closes an existing position rather than opening a new trade, as is the case with a pending order. Undoubtedly, the key advantage of this tool is its automated order closure, eliminating the need for constant monitoring of open positions. Stop orders frequently prove invaluable in mitigating substantial losses when the market behaves unexpectedly.
Why Use Stop Loss In Trading
A widely recognized trading advice emphasizes the importance of cutting losses in order to allow profits to grow. Many traders have personally experienced the significance of timely closing unprofitable positions. In today's trading landscape, the Stop Loss has become a standard approach for mitigating losses. It is actively incorporated into numerous trading strategies. However, there are some traders who completely dismiss the relevance of this tool and choose not to use it at all. They justify their stance by pointing out instances where prices initially triggered Stop Losses, closed a losing trade, and then abruptly reversed and moved in the desired direction.
While it's understandable to consider such viewpoints and frustrations, this argument revolves more around the skill of utilizing the tool, the proximity of Stop Loss levels to price or other critical boundaries, as well as random events that don't reflect systematic negative performance. Given the market's volatility, accurately predicting future outcomes and safeguarding one's position without incurring capital losses is exceedingly challenging. Therefore, it is prudent to err on the side of caution and employ Stop Losses as a form of insurance.
Benefits Of Using Stop Loss
Unfortunately, many novice traders tend to join the minority and avoid using Stop Losses. This hesitation often stems from the fear of experiencing premature losses. However, any doubts about the usefulness of Stop Losses can be dispelled by considering the following advantages:
1) Limiting losses per trade: The primary advantage lies in the ability to set a predetermined value for the potential loss, thus defining the risk for a specific position. This creates a foundation for effective money management strategies, adding flexibility to trading and safeguarding accounts against excessive drawdowns.
2) Protection against unforeseen events: Traders who actively employ Stop Losses can attest to how this tool has saved their accounts from catastrophic losses during sudden and significant market fluctuations. While opening a trade in the right direction is important, it is equally crucial to protect oneself from unforeseen market situations to prevent substantial losses. Instances where the market swiftly dropped by 50-100 points in a matter of seconds are not uncommon.
3) Stop Losses serve as profit protectors: By being able to limit losses, Stop Losses automatically become mechanisms for securing profits. It is crucial to differentiate this from another commonly used tool in forex and stock markets, known as Take Profit.
4) Psychological factor: The psychological aspect also plays a significant role. Many traders have experienced deep drawdowns where thoughts of financial doom dominate their minds. At such moments, there is often a willingness to spend countless hours in front of the monitor, hoping for the position to return to profitability, even if it's just a few dollars. However, self-confidence alone cannot solve the problem, and the situation continues to deteriorate.
As losses accumulate, regret sets in for not closing the order earlier when the losses were smaller. Profitability becomes secondary, and the focus shifts to minimizing losses as much as possible. Instead of closing the unsuccessful position, traders often find themselves waiting for a rebound, exacerbating their losses. To avoid such losses, nervous tension, and emotional exhaustion, all that was needed was the implementation of a Stop Loss.
This scenario perfectly illustrates the importance of always using a stop loss.
Consider the GBP/USD currency pair, where we plan to enter a trade based on a rebound from the support area marked by the blue rectangle. We decide to take a long position, with an expected profit of $100. However, to manage our risk effectively, we set a stop loss that allows for a maximum loss of $100.
Now, let's see what unfolded. The price unexpectedly dropped below our support area, surpassing our predetermined stop loss level. If we had not set the stop loss, the losses could have potentially escalated to a staggering minimum of $700.
Can You Trade Without Stop Loss ?
To fully grasp the importance of using stop orders and make an informed decision on whether to incorporate them into your trading strategy, it's crucial to understand how neglecting stops can lead to drawdowns:
1) Lost connection: Imagine a scenario where your internet connection suddenly drops, and at that very moment, the market experiences the activity you were anticipating. When the connection is restored, you might find your trade in a significant drawdown, potentially resulting in substantial losses.
2) Unfavorable market development: Sometimes, the market situation evolves in a way that works against the trader's position. In such cases, a properly placed stop loss would automatically close the trade, mitigating the risk of further losses.
3) Ignorance regarding stop loss closing: Some traders refrain from setting a stop loss due to a lack of understanding about when it should be triggered. Consequently, they end up closing the position out of desperation, often incurring losses of 20-40%. This approach leads to a focus on profit fixation, wherein the trader attempts to close other trades that have even minimal profits in order to compensate for losses on losing trades. Ultimately, this only adds more strain and results in new losses.
4) Constant monitoring requirement: Traders without a set stop loss are compelled to remain near their computers at all times to monitor market conditions. This not only leads to inefficient allocation of resources but also creates unnecessary stress and strain.
Why Are We Afraid To Accept Losses?
Many traders perceive losses as personal insults or signs of incompetence. This approach not only leads to significant stress but also impacts the maintenance of a trading journal. Subconsciously, we tend to equate a trader's journal with a school diary. Just like receiving a "D" grade at school made us hesitant to show the diary to the teacher, we adopt a similar mindset in trading. Conversely, we eagerly anticipate the teacher rewarding us with an "A" grade. However, in trading, there is no teacher to scold us for a "D" grade. Yet, the behavioral pattern remains ingrained, and our subconscious continues to deceive us. We convince ourselves that if there is no "F" grade in the journal, it's as if it doesn't exist, and there won't be any consequences for it.
The stop loss is a vital tool that gives traders an edge in the market by allowing them to manage risk effectively.
It is essential to approach a losing position with complete acceptance. Whatever has transpired is in the past and cannot be changed. Your focus should be on recording the trade in your trading diary, allowing for future analysis and drawing valuable insights. Remember, prioritizing capital preservation is far more crucial than denying the evident or attempting to prove oneself to the market.
How I Lost Everything Trading ForexI wasn't always profitable. I lost a lot of money when I first started trading forex. I don't remember how I got started learning forex. But I know I started when I was serving in the army. I borrowed books from the library, watched many YouTube videos on trading. I was very knowledgeable on technical analysis. I know the concepts so well I could vomit them out to you. I didn't follow up on trading that much after my service ended.
I came back to trading when I was working as an auditor. The fact that I had to work long hours with little pay brings me to look for an alternative source of income. I found out that we can make money through percentage allocation money management (PAMM). You invest your money into a trader, and whatever profit they earn, you will give them a % cut, and you keep the rest.
I found this trader with a solid trade record. He has 3 years record with an average of 20% profit a month. He is trading with a $500,000 account. I thought that this trader was good. I calculated how fast my money will grow by putting money with him every month. I put in $1,000 for a start. A few months passed and it showed good results. I see the balance in my account increased too. That was when I decided to put all my savings in. I put $10,000 in, which was everything that I had.
I was working overseas that day. I checked my account after work. I saw that my account balance was $0.98. I thought it was some bug. I refreshed the page a few times. I saw that the account manager has risked everything in 1 trade. I was shocked. I felt numb. What was going on?
Red Flags
I did some research online, found out that the broker actually fakes the trades of “top trader” over a span of 2 years. When more suckers like me put my money in these PAMM, they will burst the account with 1 stupid trade. I believe this stupid trade was not even executed, but a front for them to scam all our money.
I realized that there were many red flags to begin with. None of the top traders offered any 3rd party verification through Myfxbook, MQL5, or even Fxblue. They don’t even give their investor passwords which are read-only to investors.
It was a painful lesson. But it led me to the journey of trading by myself. From then on, I put in a lot of hours studying and backtesting technical analysis.
Even right now, I’m not comfortable with putting my money with PAMM for diversification. I will need to know the trader, understand his trading style and the potential risk to reward of the trader.
The Problem Is You
Letting mathematics formulas do the compounding for your money is a bad expectation. You think trading is easy. You can trade from your room, or even overseas using your phone. Many people are posting screenshots of their profits consistently on the social media. You think that trading is the way to achieve financial freedom. This is a legit business and many people has done it. you can do it too. You start to play around with leverage, only to get your account wiped out after 4 trades.
You deposit $100 more. you are on a winning streak. You have 4 wins in a row. you look at your account balance increased from $100 to $1,000. You’re unstoppable. You continued overleveraging your account. I mean, what can stop you now right? You’re basically a god of trading with 4 win streak. next thing you know, you wiped out your $1,000 balance.
You repeat this cycle till you’re sick and tired. you proceed to find the next holy grail.
Breaking The Loop
Insanity Is Doing the Same Thing Over and Over Again and Expecting Different Results - Albert Einstein
You need to break this cycle. you are only repeating what you’re losing.
Relying on other sources for trading will not get you far. Yes, you might found a profitable signal provider. What if he don’t want to provide his service anymore? You will be back at where you begin, looking for another signal provider again. You will need a lot of time and waste money to make sure that the signal provider is legit. what if your profitable signal provider is experiencing a losing streak? will you continue to follow the signals? or will you start having doubt? will you take responsibility for all these losing trades? or will you blame your signal provider?
To be consistently profitable in the long run, you have to trade by yourself. Everyone’s view on the market is different. You can be looking at a long on EURUSD, but I could have a bearish bias.
Knowing how to trade by yourself is the key to success. You don’t need to rely on signal providers. You don't need to constantly monitoring your phone to check if there are any signals.
You know the risk and reward and your expected win rate by trading yourself. It is you who put in the hard work of backtesting. You will be putting your own trades. You determine the amount of risk you will take. You take trades based on your lifestyle and personality.
Do The Uncomfortable Stuff
Trading involves a lot of uncertainty. This is a hustle that you can earn money without knowing what can happen next. Even though I'm a profitable trader, I do not know what will happen next. I can only guarantee that either I will lose the next trade with -1%, or a profit. I focus on what I can control, not what I expect for things to happen.
When you trade according to your own plan, you understand the risk you are taking. It is scary to take your own trades at first. You don't know if your analysis is correct. You don't know if you will be successful. You don't know if you will be profitable. This is what every trader will experience. On my first trade, I was having adrenaline rush when price came back to tap my entry. I was looking at the chart for the whole day, even though I'm trading on the 15 minutes timeframe.
I know and understand that I cannot control the price. But psychologically, I'm not strong enough to let my trade play out. This trade ended up with a loss.
You have to start somewhere to learn how to trade by yourself. Without this, you will forever be trapped within the cycle of unprofitability.
If you keep telling yourself that trading alone is hard and you are unable to be profitable, you are right. You are constantly letting your subconscious mind get used to this message. Your subconscious never rests. Even when you’re asleep, your subconscious is still running in the background. It will keep telling your body what needs to be done to keep you functioning.
Being Trapped In The Loop
I was the same as you. I skipped from strategy to strategy, trying to find the holy grail. I tried many things. from EA to signals to mentorship.
I earned some, but I lost more. I lose before I even start. Buying EAs cost money. Subscribing to signals cost money. Signing up for mentorships cost money.
I tried EAs that uses grid and martingale. I bought indicators that repaint themselves after price actions have happened. I’ve tried EAs made by creators who adjust it to best fit past data, but are actually not profitable in the live market. I’ve tried signals that gives a 20 pips TP 1, but 100 pips stop loss. They make big celebrations with fire emojis when TP 1 hits. When TP 2 of 40 pips hits, they do the same thing. Weekly result summary are also posted which includes both TP 1 of 20 pips and TP 2 of 40 pips. They remove losing signals too. This looks like it’s a profitable signals, but the risk to reward ratio for their signals are shit with low win rate.
Some of the mentorships are cash grab. You pay them to give you video recordings and information. You can find them for free on Babypips.
It’s debatable that all mentorships are a scam. Some of the mentorships I joined actually provided great values. I’m able to look into how profitable traders are trading. I can get insights on their thought process behind their trades. There is a platform for me to do my analysis. Mentors will comment on my analysis, telling me what I could do to improve, or even add their insights. Some also provide 1-1 calls which is what all mentorships should offer. Sometimes, it’s faster and easier to explain through a call rather than on text. Furthermore, they record the 1-1 sessions and I can watch them in the future. These 1-1 sessions can be Q&As, or even backtesting session. This is where I will do the backtest and the mentor will comment on my thought processes.
I would consider myself to be lucky to have only lost $10,000. If I had more money, I’d lose way more for sure. After losing that $10,000, it led me on a journey to be a profitable trader now. I have no regrets on this journey.
Mentorship
Most people are unwilling to spend money for courses, knowing well that there are thousands of FREE online resources out there. But the problem lies in how do you sieve out all the unnecessary and useless information from such a huge amount of resources? Mentorships are made to solve these problems. They are built to solve and educate you on a specific skill and knowledge that you want to learn. They are built by people who have experienced the same problem as you did.
This is the same as spending money on university courses. Most of you are willing to pay thousands of dollars and 3 - 5 years of your lives to get a 4 - 5 figured day job, yet you don’t bear to spend that few hundred of dollars to get the specific skillset that you need as an investment.
My last mentorship costs me $2,000. I can tell you that it's the best investment I've ever made. Through the mentorship, it gives me different perspective from an active community. We look at the same chart every single day and anyone is free to critic our work. The 1-1 calls are also important to me. They gave me a good foundation, and I learnt a lot of advanced skills like psychology and risk management.
I got to a point where making $916.05 is as easy as placing 1 trade, and getting 2% return on a 0.5% risk. Yes this profit comes from only 1 trade on my $50,000 account.
I've covered the cost of mentorship through my funded account payouts. This return on investment will continue to accumulate. Sooner or later, I will be earning back whatever I've lost, and to quit my 9-5 job to trade full time.
Stay consistent. Stay safe. Success is just around the corner.
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Mastering Engulfing Candle Trading
📚Engulfing candles are an essential feature of technical analysis in forex trading. An engulfing pattern happens when a larger candle engulfs the entire body of the previous candle, signaling a potential reversal of the current trend. Engulfing candles, which can be either bullish or bearish, are trusted by many traders for their reliability in predicting future price movements. However, to become an expert in engulfing candle trading, one needs to learn how to identify the best ones and leverage their body size effectively. In this article, we will look at the crucial steps to master this trading strategy.
🔎Identifying the Best Engulfing Candles
One of the key aspects of trading using engulfing candles is knowing how to spot the strongest signals. The best engulfing candles should be resistant to the noise and inconsistent movements that can often occur in the forex market. The first step towards identifying the best engulfing candles is to focus on the size of the preceding candles. Candles with small bodies and long wicks produce too much noise and can lead to false signals. Instead, seek engulfing candles that develop after a significant price move, ideally with a larger body and shorter wick. Higher timeframe charts - like the 4-hour and daily - offer better accuracy in identifying reliable engulfing patterns.
💪Leveraging Body Size for More Efficient Trading
The size of an engulfing candle’s body plays a crucial role in determining the strength of a trend. A larger body indicates more significant price movement and more active participation from traders. The size of the engulfing candle can also help ascertain the potential strength of the new trend. Bigger body sizes usually signal a stronger trend, whereas smaller bodies usually represent a more moderate price move. Traders can leverage body size to adjust their trading strategy – for instance, employing wider stop losses for more significant movements or using tighter take profit targets for moderate trends.
I have collected couple of good engulfing candles that we were trading with our team.
Take a closer look at their body sizes and the previous candles.
Such candles alone can provide fantastics trading opportunities.
🔔Conclusion
Engulfing candles are an essential tool in forex trading, and their size can significantly help traders identify the best entry signals. Traders who master engulfing candle trading can develop a more accurate technical analysis strategy that yields high returns. By continually analyzing candlestick patterns and using other technical analysis tools, traders can build robust investment strategies that enable them to become profitable forex traders.
What do you want to learn in the next post?
[Education] Falling In Love With The Wrong One Is CostlyTrade what you see, not what you feel.
Human are emotional creatures.
Believe it or not, I had attitude problems in the past. I get angry easily and this is a bad trait to be a trader.
In the beginning when I was still a noob, I would fund a live account without learning how to trade properly. I buy and sell base off moving average, RSI, MACD, and signals.
You guessed it, I burst plenty of accounts. Even if I win some trades, I would lose many more next. Whenever I lose a trade, I will feel angry. When I feel angry, can you guess what I do next? I revenge trade.
I don't believe that gold will not go higher. Let me take another long position.
Wait what the.. my trade got taken out again?
I think this is a stop hunt. Last try. This time the price will sure go higher.
"Opens another long position with larger lot size".
And you guessed it. I wiped out my account trying to catch a falling knife.
Ditch Your Emotions
Keep your feelings and emotions and aside when trading. The market doesn't care if you're happy or sad today. It will do what it wants to do. You can't control how the price move. Neither do I. Unless you have in control billions of dollars. If you do, why are you even reading this?
The problem is not with the market nor your trading strategy. The problem lies in YOU. You are the common factor here. All strategies can be profitable with the right execution, trade and risk management. But why can someone else be profitable but not you? It seems like everything is profitable until you put your own money in isn't it?
When you allow your emotions to take over, you won't be rationale. You will take actions based off your emotions.
If you feel doubt, you will look for confirmation not to take a trade.
If you feel angry, you will take revenge trades.
If you feel happy, you will feel like you won't lose your next trade and get complacent.
If you feel overconfident, you will risk more on your next trade.
If you feel fear, you will close your trade early for small profits.
If you feel tired, why the heck are you still on the chart?
Feelings are subjective and the market has no interest in it.
The Downward Spiral
Trading based off feeling is like gambling. Gambling belongs in a casino, not the financial market.
Let's say, you feel like the market is heading towards a recession. Would you blindly short the market if the price did not give you any confirmation?
This is the problem with you. You let emotions take over your decision making skills. This is why you cannot achieve profitability.
You might be in a trade, price goes against you and you’re in drawdown. You fear that the price will take you out. You cut your trade. Price reverse and hit your profit target.
You could have won the trade by following your plan, but you let your emotions take control of your decision.
When this happens too many times, your profitability decrease significantly. This makes a profitable strategy becomes unprofitable because your trade management sucks.
Not only will you lose money trading like this, but also precious time. How long did it take you to backtest that trading system? 1 day? 1 week?
How many times are you going to repeat this and waste even more time? Even if I give you the holy grail trading strategy, you will still not achieve profitability. It's not the system. It's you.
You will NOT achieve success in trading if you cannot master your emotions. Say goodbye to your financial freedom and a life of enjoyment. The only thing you can enjoy is the occasional small wins that you cut before the trade becomes a runner. You will still be unprofitable.
Follow Your Plan
If I have to summarize how I became profitable, it will be to follow your plan.
Trade what you see because only you know your own analysis. You've backtest enough to see how your edge will play out over a large number of trades. Do not let other people’s analysis interfere with your trades. They could be looking at the 1 minute timeframe, but you're trading on the 15 minute timeframe.
Price is fractal. If price is bullish on the 1 minute, it can be bearish on the 15 minute. Why do you want a second opinion on your trade?
When price shows you what it’s doing, react to it. Do not anticipate what the price will do and assume that price will do exactly that.
But Keeley, it’s so boring to wait for price to come back to my entry. I might miss the trade. I will take a short here because I’m expecting price to go lower and tap into my long order. People want to be in the action.
How many times do you expect price to make a bearish retracement and tap you into your long position? How many times did you actually open a short position and expect your long to get tapped in?
If price did not give you any confirmation, don't take the trade. The market will do what it wants to do. You can't expect the market to do exactly what you anticipate it to do.
Experience
When I was scalping on the seconds chart, I was loving every moment of it. I was constantly in a trade, catching all the movements. If I lose, it’s fine. I would always think that I have more opportunities coming soon. I would expect price to do what’s playing out in my mind.
This was not sustainable as I was taking too many trades within a short period of time. Even on a tight spread account, spread on lower timeframe accounts for a chunk of my risk management. Your trading psychology should be strong when scalping on the lower timeframe. Scalping a few pips per trade is doable but it's stressful.
I thought my trading psychology was good, until I experienced a losing streak. The more losses I experienced during the day, my psychology got affected more. This goes the same for losses in the same trading session. I’d do stupid things like risking more than normal, taking trades that I don’t usually take. I also take trades without confirmation. I used my feelings to trade as I expected price to play out what I wanted. Eventually, the win’s going to come right? This happened for a few weeks and I burst quite a few challenges. I lose quite a lot of motivation and called quits.
I’m quite a lazy person. I do not like to sit in front of my laptop stalking TSXV:SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ , $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ or $Apple(AAPL)$ and trade for a few hours straight. I took a few weeks off from charts and reflected. I look deep into myself for answers.
I got the answers. I will try to be sufficient just by trading the higher timeframe. This way, I do not need to sit in front of my laptop for a few hours. I have the freedom to do what I like without sticking to my charts. This sits well with me too as this trading style fits my lifestyle. This way, I can avoid overtrading. I can easily see what I trade because each candle took 15 minutes to be completed. This kept my trading psychology at tip top condition.
Framework
PBJ Framework
No this is not peanut butter and jelly. Let's breakdown the following:
Plan: Know what to look out for. Know what to do before, during and after trading. Before entering a trade, know how much you’re risking. Know your entry signal, confirmation, and stop loss placement. Do you take partial profits? If yes, where will you take the profits? How much position will you take at each partial profit targets? If the price did not meet any of the condition, DO NOT take a trade.
Be in the moment: During the trade, know how you’re going to manage your trade. Do you shift your stop loss to breakeven? Do you take partial profits? Do you scale into your trade? Check your emotions. Are you feeling anxious? Angry? Confident? Tired? Excited? Your emotions have no say when you're trading.
Journal: After closing the trade, journal your trade. Write down how you feel before, during and after the trade. Write down how did you manage the trade. Give it a score from 1 - 5. This will help you in the future when you’re reviewing your trades.
When you have 100 trades recorded, you can finally do your analysis. Look at the times when you trade based on feeling. How do they play out? Are those trades profitable? Look for the common factor on all your winners and losers. The more information you record on your journal, the more analysis you can perform.
Achieving Profitability
Using the PBJ Framework, I see great improvement in my trading skills. I started to be more present and conscious of what I'm feeling.
I recorded almost everything. From my pre-trading ritual to post-trading ritual, I have all the data I need. I know how my emotions change throughout the trading session.
I know how often my edge will play out.
I know which days are profitable.
I know which trading sessions are profitable.
I know which months are profitable.
I know which are my most profitable pairs.
I find peace with losing. Why? I have all the data. I have evidence that my edge will be profitable if I take all the trades that appears in front of me.
I avoided trading on days and session where I have the least profitability. Not only did this increased my win ratio, but profitability too.
I was once unprofitable. Since then, I found consistency and manage to get funded with FTMO and The Funded Trader.
My first payout was small. It's only USD$200 on a $10,000 account. Even so, this is one big step ahead in my milestone. I was targeting one payout for 2023 and I've achieved this target in May. I got my second payout in June. My goal was to get $50,000 funding by end of this year, but I've already achieved it in May. I've now stretched my goal to $200,000 funded by end of this year.
The Ordinary Life
Life always begins with one step outside of your comfort zone. - Shannon L. Alder
To create an extraordinary life, take full responsibility for your actions and decisions. Stop blaming external factors, and focus on the things you can control. Take full responsibility of your trades, your mindset, and your emotions. If you can’t control what others think about you, then don’t. What are the things that you can control? How you treat yourself, your body and your mind. How you react to people and situations. How you think. What you do with your time. The people you choose to surround yourself with. How you treat others. Where you give your time, energy and attention. The contents that you consume.
When you’re trying to do the extraordinary, the ordinary will try to stop you from doing. People don’t like to see you succeed. They heard that entrepreneurship is hard and risky. You could lose a lot of money. They think that they have the best interest in you. They like to stay in the comfort zone and you should stay there with them. They tell you to be realistic. You are not someone incredible of great success.
Anything can happen, especially in the market. You can win with a wrong setup, and lose with the right setup. It’s up to you to take the first step. There will be a lot of what-ifs and negative scenarios in your head when you’re venturing into the unknown. The unknown is scary. But what if it turns out better than expected? What if everything should go well, actually went well? That’s something you can only find out if you take the first step.
Guidance
Trading is the easy part for many people. All trading strategies are profitable if you backtest them enough.
The hard part of trading is actually coming up with an exact trading plan and risk management system. Many of you drown when it comes to a trading plan. Not know where to start when creating one is also a very big issue.
You need to train and strengthen your psychology and discipline yourself. But you need a coach to guide you to the correct path.
This is why even world class athletes like Usain Bolt has a coach. A coach gives guidance and a holistic review on your
You can choose to grow alone. But having a coach an an accountability partner will help you achieve your goals faster. Imagine spending a year learning psychology and risk management, only to find out you were on the wrong track. If you had a coach and mentor, you would have saved yourself one year of trial and error. You could be profiting from the market so much earlier.
Remember, trading is not an easy hustle. It take years of hard work, losses and, breakeven before you can achieve consistent profitability.
Stay consistent. Stay safe. Success is just around the corner.
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From Novice to Veteran: An Inspiring Journey of a Trader
Introduction:
Embarking on a trading journey may seem daunting at first, with its complexities and uncertainties. However, the story of a trader's transformation from a beginner to a seasoned professional is undeniably captivating. In this article, we delve deep into the narrative of one such trader, exploring their challenges, successes, and the invaluable lessons they learned along the way. Follow this remarkable journey as we witness the growth and evolution of a novice trader, ultimately transforming into an accomplished pro.
1. #PersistencePaysOff:
- The trader's first steps began with researching and learning the basics of trading.
- Setbacks and failures tested their resolve, but their unwavering persistence fueled their progress.
2. #MasteringEmotions:
- Early on, the trader faced emotional hurdles, succumbing to fear and anxiety during market downturns.
- The realization of the importance of emotional discipline led to the development of robust risk management techniques.
3. #AdaptandConquer:
- As the trader gained experience, they discovered the necessity of adapting to the ever-changing market conditions.
- Initially following a single strategy, they learned to diversify their portfolio and identify new opportunities.
4. #MakingLemonadeOutOfLosses:
- Reflecting on their early trading losses, the trader realized the importance of risk management and cutting losses swiftly.
- Developing a meticulous trade plan and adhering to strict stop-loss levels helped minimize losses and protect capital.
Conclusion:
The journey from a beginner trader to a professional requires dedication, perseverance, and a commitment to continuous improvement. By focusing on persistence, emotional mastery, adaptability, and learning from losses, our trader protagonist grew into a seasoned professional. Their transformation serves as an inspiration, demonstrating that success can be achieved through hard work, relentless self-reflection, and a passion for learning.
Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
Why 90% of Traders Fail and How to Avoid Pitfalls
Introduction:
Trading in financial markets is a highly competitive and potentially lucrative venture, attracting individuals from all walks of life. However, statistics reveal a staggering truth: approximately 90% of traders end up failing. In this article, we delve into the reasons behind this disheartening trend, exploring three prominent examples that shed light on key pitfalls to avoid. Whether you are a seasoned trader or aspiring to enter the market, understanding these common mistakes can dramatically improve your chances of success.
Example 2: Emotionally Driven Decision Making
- Emotional decision making is a major hurdle often faced by traders, leading to poor judgement calls based on fear, greed, or impatience.
- Failure to stick to a well-defined trading plan and allowing emotions to dictate trades can result in severe losses.
Conclusion:
While trading offers immense potential, it is crucial to acknowledge the alarming rate at which traders fail. By avoiding common pitfalls, such as lack of proper education, emotionally driven decision making, and ineffective risk management, traders can significantly enhance their odds of success. Remember, mastering the art of trading is a journey that requires continuous learning, discipline, and perseverance.
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[Education] You Need An Easy Trading SystemIt took me close to 5 years of losses and breakeven to reach where I am today. I'm handling 6 figures worth of prop firm funding and has many payouts from various prop firms.
This didn't come easy.
Like many traders, I started trading with the goal of achieving financial freedom and to leave his 9 – 5 job. I learned from free contents on YouTube. I know many concepts like smart money concept and multi-timeframe analysis.
Even with so much knowledge, I am unable to put together a coherent system. Why? Knowledge is power, but action is king. I do not have a fixed strategy that I consistently trade with.
Does this sound all too familiar? It does.
It’s happening to you now, right?
Many traders experienced what I experienced.
I've been there, done that and is now profitable.
You Need A Systematic System
Knowledge is power but without action is useless. There is no point being a genius if you don't use your intelligence and knowledge for something. - Abu Bakr
I know you have a lot of knowledge. I know you understand how different indicators worked and wave theories. So how do you put these knowledge into action?
There are so many criteria to look out for. How do you know what will work, what will not work?
What if you spent 2 days testing your strategy, only to find out that it's not profitable? How do you proceed from there? Do you tweak your system a little and backtest again? Or do you build an entire different trading system?
This is a serious problem that you have to address. You will waste a lot of time on the wrong approach. You will backtest wrong. You will not get enough data from your backtesting. You will apply the concepts wrong.
The bulk of your problem lies with not having a well thought out trading plan. If you don't know what or how to, I have a framework which I will go through later in the post. This gives you a good starting point to play around with. Anything you do here, get to 100 backtested data. After that, decide if you want to add in more criteria into your trading plan. I have a free trading journal here.
You're indecisive. You backtest and moved on without any result. You need to pick 1 and stick to it.
Basic Framework
This is the framework of how I trade.
1. Markup your chart. Find the area of liquidity, point of interests, liquidity grab, direction of the market and demand and supply zones. Do your multi-timeframe analysis here. Higher probability trade is to buy at discount levels, and sell at premium levels.
2. Set alert at your point of interests (Where to buy and sell)
3. Write down your analysis on the chart. If the price hits your point of interest, I would expect X to happen. When X happens, I will do Y.
4. When the alert goes off, go back to your chart and see if your analysis in step 3 still holds.
5a. If yes, mark out roughly where your stop loss and profit target will be. See if the RR is decent enough. If yes, then wait for the price to give you a confirmation. If no, either wait for a refined entry on the lower timeframe, or to wait for another confirmation.
5b. If not, repeat step 1.
6. Wait for price to give you a confirmation. Calculate the lot size you need to open based on your risk management and place your order.
7. Once you're in the trade, you can either forget about your trade and let it hit TP or SL, or actively manage your position. This will depend on how you backtested your strategy.
8. Once your trade hits the TP or SL, journal it. Record your entry, take profit and stop loss. Take screenshots. Record your emotions and feelings before, during and after the trade.
This is how a trading plan should look like. A clear plan of action and train of thought. There should be actions taken before, during and after the trade.
Do not follow strictly if your trading strategy is different from me. You need to change it to fit your strategy and lifestyle.
Amend it to fit your (i) trading style (ii) personality (iii) lifestyle.
My trading style is SMC with VSA, trading on 15m. I have plans to transition to trading on the 1h TF when the time comes. I started from multi-timeframe analysis. A few months later, I discarded it even though it gives a higher win rate. Why? Because I’m lazy, so I made my plan fit to my personality. I also like to spend less time on the chart so I can have a life outside of trading. This fits my lifestyle. I started trading because I want time freedom. It will be ironic if I were to spend more time on the chart compared to working in a 9 – 5.
The Holy Grail
You must understand that most of the trading strategies work. It doesn't matter if it's price action, wave theory, or indicator based. You need to have a solid backtested result to rely on. Of course, the more concepts you put together, you can find confluence between them. This can get higher probability trades. But that comes with a tradeoff too - decision paralysis. Some part of your strategy might tell you to go long, but some are telling you to go short. It's an art of balance here.
Before you take on any funded challenges, solve the above issue first. There is no point wasting money because you will be failing challenges. You are not prepared yet.
Having A Guide
Having a mentor to cut short your learning curve is cost-effective. Imagine spending 1 year on your own. You learn and test strategies that are not applicable to you, only to find yourself back to square 1. Mentorship could cost upwards of $1k, $2k or even $5k. No doubt, it's an expensive commitment.
But think about spending $10,000+ on a university degree to work a 9 - 5 job. To me, it's a no brainer to go for mentorship as I can scale my income way faster than a 9 - 5 job.
The only problem with finding a good and legit mentor is it's hard to find. Given the nature of this industry, there are many scammers. Some “mentors” do not actually trade. They rely on posting high profits screenshots to lure customers. It’s quite simple to filter these people out.
(i) Common sense. If someone is posting high RR trades often, start to question. Why would he sell you his course or strategy if he’s so profitable.
(ii) 3rd party verification like myfxbook and fxblue. Remind yourself that the results can be faked with white-label brokers. Make sure they verify their tracked account and he is using a reputable broker.
(iii) Check if he has many prop firm payouts. It’s higher chance for someone to know how to trade with different prop firm payouts.
(iv) He has transparency with his wins and losses by sharing his journey publicly.
(v) Check his online work – blogs, newsletter, YouTube etc. See the values that he provides for free. This is a good indicator of the value you will get from his mentorship.
I do have many mentors, and I agree that finding the right one is definitely a challenge. But once you've found that right mentor, everything will start to change. Everything will click and you will be on your path to consistent profitability.
Stay consistent. Stay safe. Success is just around the corner.
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Learn the ONLY REASON Why You Should Try on RETEST!Hey traders,
Being breakout traders we have two options for trade entries:
when the breakout is confirmed, we can either open a trading position aggressively once the candle closes above/below the structure, or we can be conservative and wait for a retest of the broken structure first.
What is peculiar about the second option is the fact that the majority of pro traders prefer the retest entries. In this article, we will discuss the pros and cons of retest trading.
✔️First, let's discuss whether the retest is guaranteed. NO. How often do we see that? Around 50-55% of the time. Does it mean that 45-50% of breakout trades
will be missed? YES.
The main disadvantage of retest trading is that a lot of trading opportunities will be missed. Occasionally the breakout triggers a strong market rally, not letting the price return back to the broken structure.
Take a look at that triangle pattern on Bitcoin. The price broke its support BUT did not retest it, so trading only the retest, the opportunity would be missed.
So what is the point to wait for a retest then? Why let the market go without us in case if there is no retest?
✔️Most of the time the breakout candle closes quite far from a broken level. Opening the trading position once the candle closes and setting a stop loss below/above the broken structure, one can get a very big stop loss. Such a big stop that its pip value exceeds or equals the potential return.
🖼In the picture, I drew a classic channel breakout trade.
The aggressive trader opened a long position as the candle closed above the channel's resistance.
His stop loss is lying below the lower low of the channel.
Analyzing his risk to reward ratio, we can see that his reward equals his risk.
On the right side is the position of the conservative trader.
His stop loss in lying on the same level.
However, instead of opening a trading position on a breakout candle, he decided to wait for a retest of the broken resistance of the channel. Just a slight adjustment of his entry-level gives him a completely different risk to reward ratio.
❗️Patience pays in trading. Missing some trades a retest trader will outperform the aggressive trader in the long run.
Trading is about weighting your potential gains & losses. Paying commissions and swaps for every trade, it is much better for us to trade less but pick the setups that give us a decent potential reward.
What type of trading do you prefer?
Let me know, traders, what do you want to learn in the next educational post?
✅The DO’S And DON’TS Of Risk Management❌
❤️Risk management is a crucial component of forex trading to help minimize potential losses. In this article, we’ll explore the do’s and don’ts of risk management in forex trading.
🧡DO’S
💁🏼♀️Set a stop-loss order: A stop-loss order is a pre-set level at which a trade will automatically close, thus limiting the loss on an open position.
💁🏼♀️Diversify your portfolio: Spread your investments across multiple currency pairs to avoid exposure to a single currency’s risks.
💁🏼♀️Use leverage wisely: Leverage allows traders to invest more than their account balance. However, it also increases the potential risk. Only trade with leverage if you fully understand how it works.
💁🏼♀️Keep an eye on economic events: Economic events can impact forex markets. Keeping a close eye on them can help you adjust your trading strategy accordingly and avoid unexpected losses.
💁🏼♀️Use risk-reward ratio: It is essential to have a clear risk-reward ratio in mind before entering a trade. This ratio should be based on your established trading strategy and the probability of success.
💙DON’TS
🙅🏼♀️Don’t invest more than you can afford to lose: This is a fundamental rule of investing in any financial market. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
🙅🏼♀️Don’t let emotions drive your trading: Emotions such as fear, greed, and hope can lead to impulsive decisions and cause significant losses.
🙅🏼♀️Don’t ignore fundamental analysis: Fundamental analysis helps traders understand a country’s economic and political situation, which can significantly impact forex markets.
🙅🏼♀️Don’t follow the herd: It is essential to have your own trading strategy and stick to it. Following others' trades blindly can lead to significant losses.
🙅🏼♀️Don’t trade without a strategy: A trading strategy helps you make informed decisions and minimize the risks of trading. Not having a strategy can lead to impulsive decisions and significant losses.
🖤 In conclusion , risk management is a crucial component of forex trading. It is essential to follow the do’s and don’ts mentioned above to minimize potential losses and make informed decisions. Remember, successful trading comes with experience, discipline, and patience. Happy trading!
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The Anchoring Bias: Navigating the Pitfalls of Trading Decisions
Introduction:
In the fast-paced world of trading, making accurate decisions is crucial. However, traders are not immune to cognitive biases that can lead to irrational behavior and potentially significant financial losses. One such bias is the anchoring bias, which refers to the tendency of individuals to rely too heavily on an initial piece of information when making subsequent decisions. This article delves into the concept of anchoring bias in trading, offering insightful examples to help traders identify and mitigate its negative impact.
Example 2: Anchoring on market predictions
- A trader reads a market analyst's prediction that a particular stock will experience rapid growth.
- Armed with this anchored expectation, the trader ignores other relevant factors, such as the company's financials or market trends, and invests a significant amount of capital into the stock.
- The anchoring bias leads to tunnel vision, disregarding critical information that may alter the stock's predicted trajectory, exposing the trader to avoidable risks.
Conclusion:
Understanding the anchoring bias is vital for traders seeking consistent success. Becoming aware of this cognitive bias, and actively working to question and diversify our decision-making processes, empowers traders to make more objective and rational choices in an ever-changing market landscape. Remember: anchoring should not become the heavy anchor that weighs down your trading potential.
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[Education] You Are Dumb For Not Using A Stop LossI always thought that stop losses are useless. Whenever I see price taps me out, and go in my direction. Whenever price comes close to my stop loss, the spread will somehow widen and take me out, and go in my direction. I was always angry about this.
“The broker must be trading against me! I must hide my stop loss!”
I stop using stop losses. For some trades, I won because price couldn’t tap me out and go in my direction. I thought I was a genius by not trading with a stop loss. I became confident. This worked until it didn’t work. It was NFP. It’s 10 seconds away from news release. I was trading a $1,000 account. My trade was in $8 drawdown. I looked at the chart, knowing that I will close the trade if it goes against me. The price became very volatile.
5…4…3…2…1…
Nothing happened. The price feed seemed to have lagged. A few seconds later, I saw an enormous bullish candle, against the direction of my trade. The $8 drawdown became $200 drawdown. I got wrecked. I’m supposed to close the trade at a 1% loss, and it became a 20% loss.
It’s fine. After a strong impulse, the price will retrace, right? I hoped for the price to make a bearish retracement. But every minute passed, and the chart prints more bullish candles.
I closed the trade at a $435 loss. What’s supposed to be a $10 loss turned out to be a $435 loss, 43x more than what I risked.
Types of Broker
When I started trading, I didn’t even know the existence of A-Book Brokers or B-Book Brokers. They do make a lot of difference in trading.
A-Book brokers route your trades directly to the forex liquidity providers, who in turn routes them to the interbank market.
B-Book brokers will trade against you. our profits are their losses, and your losses are their profits. There is a clear conflict of interest here.
The problem here is that you deposit your money into brokers without reputations.
Finding a reputable broker will reduce the probability of them purposely taking out your stop losses. But if you think about it, why would they want to take your $10 stop loss to ruin their reputation?
Your trade must be deep in drawdown often for your broker to manipulate your trades. You should relook into your strategy instead of blaming your brokers.
Impact On Psychology
Trading with a stop loss gives you a peace of mind. Imagine that I had use a stop loss on my NFP trade, I do not need to stalk my trade. I don’t need to worry that the server lagging, which made me unable to close my trade. Without using a stop loss, I can’t close my trade when price hits my stop loss level. This too can happen if your internet connection lagged or is down during that crucial period of time.
Your psychology must be very strong to trade without a stop loss. Believe me. You will wait for a few seconds to close. Hoping that trade will turn in your favor within that few seconds. You will end up losing more.
Trading with a stop loss is good for your trading psychology. You know that whatever happened, you will lose what you’ve risked. You do not need to stress that you might risk too much on a trade.
Trading is a marathon, but many of you have the wrong impression that this is a get-rich-quick hustle.
Consider trailing your stop loss when you’re in profit or set them to breakeven when the price moved.
Remember, anything can happen in the market. You might be in profit now, but the price can shoot past your stop loss the next minute. If you’re not fast enough to react, you will close your trade at an unfavorable price.
Taking Partial Profits
Taking partials is better for you. You don’t need to worry if there are any situation where you cannot close your trade in time.
Taking partials is important if you don’t want to shift your stop loss. Assume that your trade runs 1R in profit, you can close half. This yields 0.5R. You can choose to keep your original stop loss. When price comes back to take you out, your result will be breakeven.
Always remember, a small win is better than a full loss. Consistent small wins will be beneficial in prop firm challenges. Time limit will stress you out. Consistent small wins make you feel like you’re progressing towards passing the challenge.
Risk Management
There are a lot of ways to profitability. You can either have a high win rate, but low risk-to-reward ratio, or a low win rate, but high risk-to-reward ratio. I’m sure you want a high risk-to-reward ratio trading strategy. Before that, you have to understand how your psychology works. Are you able to execute the same trade that fits your trading strategy again and again? You need to follow your plan despite losing 10 or 20 trades in a row. Will you start to doubt your trading strategy? Your account balance going lower and lower every time you take a trade.
Once you’re trading live, you have to accept the risk for each trade you’re taking. You have to accept that you can be wrong more than you’re right. You cannot control the outcome of your trades. You can control the amount of risk you take per trade. I recommend risking 1% or lower for each trade. The goal here is to focus one capital preservation. By limiting your risk to 1% a trade, you are able to keep your account balance safe. Compare this to people who risk 20% or 50% a trade. In a few losing trades, their account balance will be very close to $0. These are the gamblers that do not have the right risk management skills.
News Trading
I always thought that trading news is the same as trading at any time of the day. Price will go to wherever it needs to go. Since my backtest don’t take into consideration of news, I can trade news in live market too. But after the incident where I lost 43x more than what I risked, I stopped trading news.
If I have an open position and in profit, I will close half of my position and shift my stop loss to breakeven.
If my position is in drawdown, I will close all the position. The risk of slippage does not justify the reward. If your normal RRR is 1:3 with a 33% win rate, the risk of slippage can turn your potential RRR to be 1:1 because you can potentially lose 3% instead of 1%.
Rewarding Journey
When I started to focus more on capital preservation, profits comes to me. It’s counterintuitive. It’s normal to think that to be profitable, we need to focus on profits.
Having a strict trade management helps a lot with my psychology. I know how many losses I will need to lose my account. Knowing this, it helps with my psychology as I give myself the room to make errors and take losses.
I know that my trading strategy is profitable in the long run. I know how much drawdown I can expect from my trading strategy.
To be like me, you need a lot of backtest data. I have 1,000 trades logged, which is why I am comfortable trusting my trading strategy.
Following to my trading plan allows me to not focus on the noises and my emotions. I trade mechanically.
This has allow me to pass various prop firm challenges and gotten various payouts. I have another payout that’s coming in this Tuesday.
I’ve always wondered what’s the feeling of constantly getting withdrawals. Now I know how it feels. I’m progressing ahead to leaving my 9 – 5 job. My 2023 goal was to get funded and get 1 payout. It’s not even the end of June 2023 yet, and I’ve achieved my goal.
Right now I’m accumulating more accounts from all my payouts. It will take awhile, but I will reach my next milestone of managing $600,000 soon enough.
Accountability Partner
The hardest part of trading alone is sticking to your own rules. In a day job, you report to your manager and boss. When you’re trading, you’re reporting to yourself. It is hard to be accountable to yourself.
Having an accountability partner or a mentor is the best solution to solve this problem.
Do you know why legends like Oprah Winfrey has a coach? A coach gives guidance and a holistic review on your performance. They act as an accountability partner. They push you and hold you accountable for your actions.
Having someone there for you when you feel down and unmotivated can be motivating.
It’s hard to find a suitable mentor or accountability partner given the nature of the financial market. There are a lot of scammers out there selling course materials which you can find online. You need to know that the person selling the course or mentorship does not rely on sales for a living. But instead, he must be earning most of his income from trading. Look at his content, see if they resonates with you. Look at his track record, are they afraid of showing 3rd party verification? Do they only show you screenshots of trades that have already happened? Do they only show their results on excel sheet?
If you’ve been following me on my journey, you would have seen my progression. I’ve manage to break free of my unprofitable self to a consistent profitable trader now.
Remember, trading is not an easy hustle. It take years of hard work, losses and, breakeven to achieve consistent profitability.
Stay consistent. Stay safe. Success is just around the corner.
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How To Trade Double Bottom Pattern?
✅In the world of forex trading, understanding patterns and trends can make all the difference between profit and loss. One popular pattern that traders often look out for is the double bottom, also known as the "W" pattern.
✅The double bottom pattern occurs when the price of a currency pair reaches a low point, bounces back up, dips again to the same level, and then bounces back up again, creating a "W" shape. Essentially, the market has twice failed to break through the support level, indicating a potential reversal to the upside.
✅This pattern is often seen as a bullish indicator, as it suggests that buyers are stepping in and pushing the price up. It is important to note, however, that the second bounce should not dip below the first one, as this could indicate a continuation of the bearish trend.
✅So, how can traders take advantage of the double bottom pattern? One strategy is to enter a long position once the price breaks out above the resistance level created by the two bounces. This breakout confirms the reversal and can signal a potential uptrend.
✅It is also important to combine the double bottom pattern with other technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), to confirm the potential reversal.
✅However, as with any trading pattern, it is important to approach the double bottom with caution and to always have a solid risk management strategy in place. Traders should also be aware of potential false signals and market noise that could obscure the true trend.
✅In summary, the double bottom pattern can be a useful tool for forex traders looking to identify potential reversals and enter profitable trades. By combining it with other technical indicators and practicing proper risk management, traders can improve their chances of success in the ever-changing and unpredictable world of forex trading.
I hope this post was helpful to some of our beginner traders😊
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Real Example of a TRADING PLAN Revealed
Hey traders,
In this post, we will discuss 6 crucial things in your trade planning and the main elements of trade results assessment.
1️⃣ - Before you open a trading position, make sure that you analyzed the chart. You should identify a market trend and spot major key levels.
Here on WTI Crude Oil I have analyzed key levels and came to the conclusion that the market is trading in sideways.
2️⃣ - Once the chart is analyzed, you should identify the safest trading areas for your strategy (preferably the zones of supply and demand).
You should patiently wait until one of these zones is tested.
Back to our example. The support that the market is approaching is a safe area to buy from.
3️⃣ - Once the zone is reached, you should look for a confirmation. You can either look for a reversal candlestick/price action pattern, some fundamental trigger, or some indicator. The point is that you should rely on a trigger that is backtested and that proved its accuracy.
In our example, the confirmation pattern - the ascending triangle is spotted on lower time frames.
4️⃣ - Getting your confirmation, you should have a precise entry strategy. Some traders prefer aggressive entries on spot while others are waiting for a retest of some major/minor level.
Trading Oil, the perfect entry point will be on a retest of a broken neckline of a triangle.
5️⃣ - You must set a stop loss. Remember that your stop-loss defines the point where you become wrong in your predictions. Be extremely careful on that step and give the market some space for fluctuations.
Back to our example - our safe stop loss will be below the lows.
6️⃣ - Know your exact target level(s). Know the point where you start protection of your position, where you start profit-taking. Be very strict and don't let your greed and fear intervene.
Returning to our trade, the Perfect target level is based on a closes strong resistance.
Only then a trading position is opened.
No matter what will be the end result of your trade, you should assess it:
1️⃣- You should journal the trade outlining its end result, trading instrument, and your entry reason.
2️⃣ - Note any peculiar thing about this trade that you noticed.
3️⃣ - Record your gain/loss percentage.
4️⃣ - Identify whether any mistake was made and if so, learn from that.
Here is your minimum plan to follow. Of course, as you mature in trading your trade assessment plan will be more sophisticated.
Do not underestimate its importance and treat it as the main element of your trading routine.
Let me know, traders, what do you want to learn in the next educational post?
The Ups and Downs of Investment Risk: Navigating the Risk Level
👉🏻The world of investing can be a wild ride, full of twists and turns that can lead to either high gains or crushing losses. That’s why it’s important to understand the different risk levels that come with investing in various assets. Let’s explore the three main categories of investment risk levels: low, moderate, and high.
💹Low Risk
If you’re risk-averse and prefer a steady, predictable return on your investment, low-risk options are the way to go. These are investments with low volatility and minimal chance of losing money.
💹Moderate Risk
If you’re willing to take a bit more risk for potentially higher returns, moderate-risk investments might be a good fit for you. These typically have a higher volatility rate, but still have a good chance of earning a positive return in the long run.
💹High Risk
For those willing to take on the highest level of investing risk in search of the highest returns, high-risk investments might be worth considering. These have the highest potential for extreme highs and extreme lows with significant volatility.
👉🏻It’s important to note that each investor’s risk tolerance is different, and what might be a high-risk investment for one person could be a low-risk investment for another. So, when considering investment options, make sure to weigh both the potential rewards and the accompanying risks.
👉🏻In conclusion, investing involves a certain amount of risk, but understanding and balancing those risks can help you make informed decisions that align with your financial goals. Whether you opt for low, moderate, or high-risk investments, do your research and seek advice from financial professionals to determine which level of investing risk is right for you. Happy investing!
😸Thank you for reading buddy, hope you learned something new today😸
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Why Every Trader Needs a Mentor: Learn from the Experts
Trading can be a lucrative career, but it's not easy to navigate the markets on your own. This is where a mentor comes in - an experienced trader who can guide you through the ups and downs of the stock market, teach you strategies and provide valuable insights that will help you succeed in trading. In this article, we will explore the benefits of having a mentor in trading and provide examples of how a mentor can help you achieve your financial goals.
1. Gain a wealth of knowledge:
2. Get personalized guidance and support:
3. Build confidence:
4. Network and gain exposure:
In conclusion, having a mentor in trading is a valuable asset for any trader who wants to succeed in the markets. Whether you are a new trader or an experienced professional, working with a mentor can provide you with personalized guidance, expert knowledge, network building opportunities and help you build your confidence. So don't hesitate to seek out a mentor to take your trading career to the next level.
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Revealing the secret of pro tradingIt takes a period of 3-5 years to obtain a degree.
Gaining experience in a reputable 9-5 job typically requires 5-10 years.
To become a professional athlete, one needs to undergo 10 years of training.
If you don't achieve millionaire status in trading within 6 months, it's common for people to give up. However, it's important to recognize that patience and consistency are essential.
Trading is not excessively complicated, as it can be broken down into a few key components.
- Having an edge.
- Practicing effective risk management.
- Controlling emotions and executing trades.
It's crucial not to overcomplicate matters.
Your trading edge serves as your offensive weapon.
Risk management functions as your defensive weapon.
Your ability to balance these weapons, along with controlling emotions, is crucial.
Having a trading edge makes you a good trader, while skillful risk management makes you a great trader.
The capacity to control fear and greed elevates you to the status of a legendary trader.
A trading system allows you to generate profits, while effective risk management safeguards your capital.
Mastering Pro Forex and Gold Trading
As a professional forex and gold trader, it's essential to understand the anatomy of successful trading. From market analysis to risk management, there are specific body parts, or components, that make up a successful trader. Here's a breakdown of each component and its role in pro trading.
👁 Eyes - Market Analysis
Successful traders know that the markets are dynamic, and they must keep a keen eye on market trends and data. By scanning the markets, using technical analysis, and fundamentals-based analysis, traders can make informed trading decisions.
🧠 Brain - Discipline and Strategy
Traders must have the discipline to stick to their trading strategy and be ready to pivot when necessary. Having a clear trading plan and risk management strategy is essential, and traders must keep a cool head in the face of market volatility.
❤️ Heart - Risk Management
In trading, you need to know when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em. Successful traders must have a heart for risk management and know how to manage their trading capital effectively.
🙌 Hands - Execution
To execute good trades, you must have nimble hands that can take swift action when the opportunity presents itself. Traders must know how to enter and exit trades quickly and efficiently to maximize profits and minimize losses.
👂 Ears - Listening to the Market
Experienced traders know that the market can be unpredictable, so it's essential to actively listen and take in information from various sources to stay on top of trends and changes in market sentiment.
🦵 Feet - Adaptability
Successful traders must be able to pivot and adapt to sudden changes in the markets. Whether it's political unrest, natural disasters, or unexpected market moves, traders must be able to react quickly and adjust their trading strategy accordingly.
👄 Mouth - Community and Networking
Experienced traders know that trading is not a solitary endeavor and that community and networking are essential to successful trading. Sharing knowledge, joining trading communities, and networking with fellow traders can provide valuable insights and support when trading.
By understanding the anatomy of pro forex and gold trading, traders can develop the mindset and skills necessary to succeed in trading. From market analysis to risk management, each component plays a critical role in successful trading. Physical attributes like hands and feet can be developed with practice, but the heart and the brain are equally important, and they require discipline, strategy, and adaptability to thrive in the ever-changing world of trading.
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[Education] How To Be A Good Trader?This might surprise you. I was actually a content creator on Youtube and blogs before I focus on trading. Trading was something I do on the side as I was trying to achieve consistency.
From young I already knew that I do not want to work in a 9 - 5 until I retire. I want to enjoy my life without worrying for money. I read a lot of books on personal finance, personal development and productivity.
To be good at something, you need at least the knowledge of a given topic. Knowledge is potential power. Action is power.
Stability Reduces Stress
I was lucky to have an actual framework and knowledge on how to keep and grow my money. I didn’t have to worry about money as I was spending way below my means, without sacrificing my hobbies.
It is important to have a stable income. I do not need to worry about being unable to pay bills, or to put food on the table.
This brings me to the next point. Since I have met my survival needs, I can spend more time and energy focusing on trading.
I have the savings and money to deploy in the financial market.
Building The Luxurious Lifestyle
Beginners are caught up with the idea that it is easy to get high win rate and high RR trades.
You want to learn how to trade because it’s lucrative. I don’t deny that. This business is very scalable. A 5% gain on a $100 account is $5, but a 5% gain on a $100,000 is $5,000. You take the same trade on different accounts, the profit can vary.
You want to enjoy life. You want to escape the 9 - 5 rat race. You want to provide for your family. You want to make your parents proud. You want to be a rich and successful person. Who doesn’t want that?
You can see many screenshots of people earning millions of dollar. They took high 100 RR trades and profiting tens of thousands of dollars per trade. These give the impression to beginners that they can do it too.
You enter the trading world with the wrong mindset. You want to earn thousands of dollars every week. But your capital is only $100. You think you can flip this account into tens of thousands of account. But you only get to see your accounts wiped out time and time again.
You don’t believe that you are not able to profit from the market. You talk to people who post screenshots of their profits and high RR trades.
You subscribe to their trade signals, account management, and expert advisors. You bought their trading course on demand and supply. Some mentorships tell you to put 3 technical indicators and follow the buy and sell signals. You put in more money since they are the ‘experts’. You might find small success here and there. But eventually, you are back to square one. Your account got wiped again.
You will never improve if you’re stuck in this loop. Trust me, you will NOT succeed.
Breaking The Loop
Solving this will ensure you will survive. You will meet your basic needs. You don’t need to worry about food, water and shelter. You won’t need to stress about not having enough to get by. You won’t need to worry about getting your electricity and water cut off. You won’t need to worry about your landlord coming after for rent. You’re not afraid of getting sick and being not able to afford basic healthcare.
You will get your life in order. You will get your personal finance in order. You know exactly how much your net worth is. You know how much your income a month is. You know how much your monthly expenditure is.
Once you know all these numbers, you are able to extrapolate how much you need at retirement. Knowing your net worth at retirement is crucial. I will write about how do you calculate for retirement in the future.
If you have all these figures worked out, you might not need to work so hard for the 100rr trading system. You can reach retirement earlier by investing your money into the S&P500. But the fact that you’re here, means you’re trying to aim higher isn’t it?
The point is that you have to understand your basic survival needs. If you are able to meet the basic needs through trading, you are a good trader. You don’t need to get 5 or 6 digits payout with constant 10% returns every month. All you need is a 2% gain on a $200,000 account which gives you a nice $4,000, trading from a beach villa at Maldives 1 hour a day.
Capital Issue
But Keeley, I need to have high RR trades and high returns a month to be able to trade full time. You’re right if you’re trading a small capital. If you only have $10,000, you will need 40% gain a month to get $4,000 of monthly income.
You can fix this with prop firms. With the rise if prop firms, it is easier to control large amount of capital.
If you’re consistent and profitable, it is not hard for you to pass prop firm challenges. To put into context, you only need 4% gain on a $100,000 account to achieve the same $4,000 you need.
What is a "good trader" to you? High RR? High profitability? High win rate? Able to quit your 9-5? There are many different definitions of good.
How good do you want to be?
To me, there's always room for improvement.
I do journaling to collect data.
Collect as many data points as you can. You can perform data analysis. Analyze them by session, day, time, duration, types of confirmation, month, pair. You know your max drawdown, unprofitable days, months, session, type of trade.
You know how your emotion plays a part in your trading results. Know your win probability, win rate, average RR, average stop loss size.
Being consistent and being able to profit from the market every week is good, at least to me.
What Is Learning?
I love the concept of trying new things. If you try, you will either succeed, or you learn. Think of what’s the worst that can happen to you. If you’re learning to be a trader, the worst that can happen to you is that you lose some money. It’s recommended that you start with paper money anyway. So the worst thing that can happen is that you lose a few days of your life. At least you can tell yourself that you’ve tried and it doesn’t work. You won’t have any regrets in the future.
Once you fail, you gain experience and knowledge. You can apply these skills to other areas in your life. In trading, you learn about risk management. You learn about the importance of being patient. All these skills compound. It’s not 1+1+1=3. It’s 1+1+1=5.
Now, what if you succeed? The upside is unlimited. You’re risking a few days of your life for a potential benefit that can change your whole life. You can be trading for a living, leaving the 9 - 5 life behind you.
All you got to do, is to try.
I failed a lot. I tried ecommerce, YouTube, private label drop shipping, affiliate marketing and more. All these taught me soft skills that are transferrable.
All these lead me to where I am today. A profitable trader with consistency.
Personal Finance Framework
A lot of people start trading live or forward testing. This is a wrong conception. You have to start with your personal finance.
Get your personal finance in order before looking for a side hustle. Yes trading for most people begins as a side hustle.
If you have bad debt, clear them first. Many of you have student loans or even consumer loans. Remember that these interests compound real quick if you don’t pay them off. Do not pay the least amount. Eliminate them completely, and fast.
Next, make sure you have consistent month cash flow coming in. This is to pay your bills and put food onto your table. This step will ensure your survivability.
Make sure you have savings. A rule of thumb is to have at least 6 months worth of expenditure saved up. You will need this money on rainy days. You can lose your job one fine day and will be glad to have this savings to buffer for the your next job. Medical bills can be huge. If you don’t have enough money, you might not get the medical attention you need. You might also need to resort to loans to pay off your medical bills. This brings me to the next point.
Insurance. If you’re young and healthy, get insurance. The premium tends to be cheaper when you’re young and healthy. The older you get, the more expensive the premium gets. It’s better to lock in the premium when you’re young as this will save you money in the long run. But you might be thinking, you’re young and healthy, you won’t fall sick. That’s what I thought so too, until I was diagnosed with pneumonia at the age of 25. I was working out 3 times a day and thought I was very healthy. Luckily for me, I had insurance which covered my medical bills.
There are also another school of thought. You might be thinking of skipping the insurance and investing the premium yourself. Now the risk here is that investing this amount of money does not guarantee a payout if you fall sick. Let’s say you’re 25 years old. Your insurance premium cost $1,000 a year and the coverage is $25,000. If you’re so unlucky to fall sick at year 2, you would have invested $2,000 in total into the stock market. Let’s say you’re a investing and trading genius and you manage to flip that $2,000 into $4,000. You're covered less than what the insurance will cover.
Insurance is as a hedge against big medical cost. It’s a balance between hedging and growing your net worth. It all depends on how you secure you want to be when the time you fall sick and you lose your employment income.
Achieve Consistency
Once you have your personal finance in order, you have already managed 70% of your survival needs.
It took me 5 years to achieve consistency. It can take you faster than 5 years. It will be hard for 1 or 2 years, but it will not stay tough forever.
Happy to say that I've made my second payout this month with a new Prop Firm.
My long-term holding portfolio is holding up great. This is due to good entries that I've made using technical analysis. Good technical analysis skills don't apply to Forex only.
I've always dreamed of and wondered how does it feel to receive big payments consistently. I'm not getting large payouts yet, but I'm already accumulating many prop firm accounts.
I focus on risk management, trade management, and trade psychology which I can control. By controlling what I can control, I am making my way to being a 7 figured funded trader.
Stay consistent. Stay safe. Success is just around the corner.
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“Well, not everybody understands the patterns” Limitless 2011
In the movie Limitless (2011), Eddie Morra (Played by Bradley Cooper) takes a mysterious pill, NZT-48 , that turns him from a struggling writer to a financial wizard . The pill unleashes 100% of his cognitive power, transforming him into an intellectual powerhouse.
About 40 minutes in, there is a scene.
Hank: "Pattern recognition. That's your snake oil?"
Eddie: "Well, not everybody understands the patterns."
Why am I sharing this? Well, because not everybody understands the patterns, especially most traders.
Did you know that chart patterns actually work?
Not all patterns work, just some of them.
Although there are numerous patterns in technical analysis books, many of them are actually snake oil.
Take, for example, the Bull Flag; this is a Flag pattern occurring in an uptrend, usually during a bull market. The flag pattern is proven* to be snake oil; it is no more than a 50/50 chance of success.
Only one flag pattern works; it is called a high tight flag* and works 85% of the time.
The chart above (NVDA) is an example of one of the most accurate and successful patterns in technical analysis.
The Inverse Head and Shoulders.
The inverse head and shoulders is a well-known chart pattern. But how reliable is it?
Based on thousands of tested trades from 1996 to 2020, it has an 89% success rate and an average price increase of 45%.
Two decades of research* shows an inverse head and shoulders chart pattern has an 89% success rate for a reversal of an existing downtrend during a bull market.
When this pattern works, it averages a price increase of 45%; this is one of the most reliable chart patterns.
In fact, the NVIDIA chart above made 43% and has exceeded the target.
Trading is a Game of Probabilities
Trading is definitely a game of probability, but few traders understand the actual probability of each trade.
Now that you know the inverse head and shoulders is 89% successful with an average upside of 45%; you can assess your risk/reward and make better trades.
Sure, there is an 11% chance of failure and a lower-than-average price increase, but now you know the odds.
Take TradingView's NZT-48 Pill
In the movie Limitless, Eddie takes the NZT-48 pill and becomes a top trader.
But did you know that TradingView is like the NZT-48 pill?
How?
Because the inverse head and shoulders pattern in NVIDIA (chart above) was discovered and annotated with TradingView's pattern recognition algorithms .
TradingView does the hard work for you; it even sets the correct price target and lets you know when it is reached.
If you are trading and not using TradingView's in-built pattern recognition, you are not utilizing the NZT-48 superpower.
How to Turn On Pattern Recognition in TradingView
Click Indicators > Technicals > Patterns
Next, select the patterns you want.**
I hope this was useful; if you like, hit like. If you want more, hit follow.
Happy trading, traders!
*Source: The Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns (2021 Wiley) by Tom Bulkowski
**I would not recommend using the Pennant Patterns; they are proven not to work.