What Is An Imbalance, Fair Value Gap (ICT) or Inefficiency?What Is An Imbalance, Fair Value Gap (ICT on YouTube) and/or inefficiency in price (all the same thing)
An imbalance can be defined as an imbalance between buyers and sellers. A bullish imbalance has more buyers behind it and a bearish imbalance has more sellers behind it. When you see an impulsive move to the upside or downside in the market with no wicks overlapping full-bodied candles, this is where imbalances in the market are formed. They can happen on all time frames, but easier to trade on higher ones, especially after high impact news happen.
When looking for an imbalance in the market, simply look for any candle which has a full body and look for the part of the candle that isn’t overlapped by the previous and next candles’ wicks. This signifies an imbalance in the market because there were few transactions going on between buyers and sellers. (On chart) we can see how sellers completely overpowered buyers. Wicks usually represent price oscillating up and down within the time it takes to print that candle, showing that price is efficient. So when you see a full-bodied candle with no wicks overlapping it, you’ve identified a clear imbalance in price.
Price Imbalance Is An Imbalance Between Buyers & Sellers
The reason we call it an imbalance is not only because it’s an imbalance between buyers and sellers, but because there is literally an imbalance in the market. If we have an impulsive move to the upside it’s because there are no sellers to absorb the buying pressure of the bulls (bid up). This means that there is no resistance from sellers to stop the buyers from pushing the price up extremely rapidly. On the other hand, if we have an impulsive move to the downside it’s because there are no buyers to absorb the selling pressure of the bears (bid down). This means that there is no resistance from buyers to stop the sellers from pushing the price down extremely rapidly.
Imbalances in the market can also be viewed as inefficiency in price, telling us may be banks or financial institutions involved in the aggressive movement of price we’re seeing. Again, if we think about it, most impulsive moves and imbalances in the market happen as a result of there being no liquidity in the form of orders to stop price from being met with resistance and slowing down. In an efficient market, we typically see price trade in a range of fair value for that asset where sellers sell when they perceive the price of the asset is high (premium), and buyers buy when they perceive the price as low (discount).
By doing this, it creates a high momentum move and imbalance in the market that is much like a gap in price. In some cases, this price manipulation may be a part of an institution’s plan to generate liquidity, and therefore we may see price seek to “fill” that imbalance or close that gap before pushing back into the same direction that price impulse from.
Naturally, most imbalances in the market represent inefficiency in price, and therefore there is usually a good chance that price will return to fill that imbalance (in order to make price efficient again). While this isn’t always the case (price can just continue to push away from imbalances that form in the market), we can sometimes see price seek to mitigate the imbalance, or the zone that the imbalance originated from, and therefore look to take a trade in the direction of the imbalance in order to profit off of price moving in that direction to mitigate it! Trade Smarter not Harder.
Risk Management
What Is Leverage (in Forex trading)?Leverage allows you to potentially trade more money than you have in your current account. Your broker gives you a loan of 1:10 up to 1:50 leverage for your trading, in the U.S.A. (see chart attached).
You can change all amounts and % per trade on the chart.
Remember less leverage you put down on a trade, the higher margin (deposit or cash out of your account is needed) to place trades, yes that is how your broker protects you and them from a big huge loss by a forex trader. Also, this how you prevent margin calls from your broker from taking on to much risk.
Forex trading involves several things:
1) You account size
2) Leverage used. Higher leverage means you need less margin (broker deposit) per trade. Smaller trades you can do higher leverage with proper risk control. Higher trades you can do smaller leverage with proper risk control. Then you trade for the long-term, not just for a short period of times.
3) Required cash margin that your broker needs to hold for each trade that you are in. Protection for yourself and broker during your trade.
4) Percentage % used per trade (risk controlled by you)< Always do this on every trade that you do.
5) Lot size (you decide before any trades are done). Standard size: 1= 100,000= $10, Micro lot 1= 10,000= $1 or Mini lot 1= 1,000= 0.01 (on USD pairs)
6) Always use a STOP LOSS when trading (so you can determine, amount of risk per trade and/or lot size proper for each trade you do.)
You always want to use normally less then 5% risk per trade, so that 20 losing trades in a row does not blow your account. Risk management of your account is what will determine if you succeed or fail in forex trading. If you have a 1% or 2% per risk per trade with a 60%, 70% or higher win rate, with yes compound interest, you will see very high profits in the longer term and your forex account grow fast. The secret is leave your account alone and let it grow.
Actually, forex trading involves another ten things, which you can control are: account size, candlestick setups, entry, exit, targets, pair you trade, leverage you use, price you get in, session you trade and time you trade, lot sizes, risk per trade 1% to 5% (less is more).
Handling losses like a pro!Hey traders,
Ever wondered how some of the professional traders can lose tens of thousands of dollars and still not be phased? Well, today I am going to chat about how and why they have the ability to remain consistent and trust the process, and how you can do the same.
Enjoy!
🟩TRADING HACKS: You're doing ENOUGH 🟩 This video is about the importance of thinking in RR and %. The main point is when you think you haven't earned enough is $ amount - and so you want to trade more and more, which leads to poor trade quality - remind yourself that trading is highly scalable, and so it's ok to imagine you have a 20x more capital at the moment. So x20 your profit in the trade and ask yourself how I feel now, is this enough for the day? Remember, if you're consistent, you'll be able to scale the account relatively easy.
Successful traders think like chess playersEvery day I get many questions from traders and more than half of them are: "What will X asset do today, will it rise or fall" or "Do you think X asset will reach Y price?"
With very few exceptions, I say "I don't know". Surely my interlocutor will think that I don't want to tell him/her or that I'm an idiot.
In fact, the correct answer is another: "I don't care"
And now, dear reader, you will think not that I am an idiot, but a complete one.
But bear with me a little more and let me explain using a real trading example on EurUsd
Let's say we consider taking a trade on this pair so, we ask ourselves what do we know about it?
1. Fundamentally the USD is favored
2. The trend is down for more than a year.
So, we want to trade in the direction of the trend and sell this pair
Looking closely at the chart we see that EurUsd is contained in a downwards channel and recently found support in the 0.99 zone.
Last week, the pair corrected and reached a high at 1.0150 and reversed exactly from the channel's resistance, leaving a nice and strong bearish engulfing on our daily chart.
Going further with our judgment, where do we want to sell this pair?
Now, considering my approach, I see a good place to sell in the 1.0030-1.0050 zone.
So we set a sell limit order in that zone (Remember, professional traders use pending orders)
We also consider at this moment the point where our bearish outlook is negated. We get 1.0150 for our stop loss.
Now, using again my personal trade, let's say we set the selling order at 1.0030, with a stop loss at 1.0150 we have a potential loss of 120 pips.
We know that every pip move on EurUsd represents 1usd for 0.01 volume, so 12usd potential loss on 0.01 trade for our trade.
Now, let's consider volumes.
What potential loss are we "comfortable" with?
For the sake of example let's say 120 USD, so a 0.1 volume.
Now let’s see where we can take profit.
0.97 zone is the falling channel's support, so there.
Looking at such a trade we have 120 pips or 120 USD potential loss with 330 pips or 330 potential profit. This gives us a close to 1:3 risk-reward ratio, a very good one.
And now, maintaining the analogy from the title is the market’s “move” turn
And the market can do only 2 things at this point: fill our pending order or not.
Considering that I don't hold pending orders after NY's close, if the market doesn't reach my level by then, I will remove the order, and tomorrow I will start over again by analyzing the market.
The second is to trigger our limit order as is also the case for my trade, and we are in a running trade now.
Now, with a trade running is again the market's move.
So, what are the possible scenarios?
1. The market rises and hits our SL. Although an undesirable scenario, we knew from the start that it’s a possibility and like every trade, this also carries a risk. We considered it and assumed it from the start and didn't trade more than we could afford to lose in a trade.
So, we take it like a stoic and move on to the next trade and market analysis
2. The lovely scenario in which EurUsd breaks 0.99 support and falls to our target.
So, our reasoning was correct and we now have a trade that brought 330usd in our pocket, but more importantly we traded disciplined with a good R: R
3. The market falls below 0.99 but reverses. Now we can also consider some action
- Move SL in BE and let the trade run
- Close half to get some money off the table and move SL into BE
- Close all trade
In conclusion:
As you can see, you don't need to be Gary Kasparov to be a good trader, the market's "moves” being in fact just a few. All you need to do is to be aware of these moves and have a plan for each of them.
This way you will not end up wondering every minute "where will EurUsd go, it will rise, it will fall", you will not trade emotionally or recklessly.
As Benjamin Franklin once said: "Those who failed to plan, plan to fail", but it is not your case, because, as a good trader you always trade with a plan and know from the beginning all that the market can do.
Best regards!
Mihai Iacob
EDUCATION WHAT IS DRAWDOWN | 3 Types Of Drawdown ExplainedHey traders ,
is it drawdown . The account drawdown is the highest observed loss from the highest value of the deposit to the lowest value of the deposit at a certain period of time . Imagine you started to trade with 10,000 $ account . At the end of the year , your account size reached 15,000 $ . 1 However , at some point through the year the deposit value dropped to 6,000 $ . It was the absolute minimum for the one - year period . At some point , your net loss was -4,000 $ or 40 % of your account balance . The account drawdown is 40 % .
! Knowing the account drawdown is very important for the risk assessment of the trading strategy . Usually , 50 % and bigger drawdown signifies an extremely high risk .
There are 3 types of drawdown to know
Current drawdown - a temporary drawdown associated with the negative total value of opened trading position ( s ) at present . Once you start trading with 10,000 $ deposit , you open several trading positions . Being opened , with the constant price movements , your potential gains fluctuates from positive to negative . For examples , with 3 active trades : EURUSD ( -500 $ at present ) ; GBPUSD ( + 200 $ at present ) ; GOLD ( -100 $ at present ) your current account drawdown is -400 $ or 4 % of your deposit . Fixed drawdown - the negative value of the closed trading position ( s ) at present for a certain period of time . While some of your trades remain active , some are already closed . Imagine the same deposit - 10,000 $ . On Monday you opened 6 trades , 2 still remain active and 4 are already closed . Your total loss from your closed trades is -500 $ . Your fixed Monday's drawdown is 5 % . Maximum Drawdown - the maximum observed loss from
WHAT IS DRAWDOWN | 3 Types Of Drawdown Explained 📚
Hey traders,
In my videos, I frequently use the term "drawdown".
Many of you asked me to explain the meaning of that term and share some examples.
The account drawdown is the highest observed loss from the highest
value of the deposit to the lowest value of the deposit at
a certain period of time.
Imagine you started to trade with 10,000$ account.
At the end of the year, your account size reached 15,000$.
However, at some point through the year the deposit value dropped to 6,000$. It was the absolute minimum for the one-year period.
At some point, your net loss was -4,000$ or 40% of your account balance.
The account drawdown is 40%.
❗️Knowing the account drawdown is very important for the risk assessment of the trading strategy. Usually, 50% and bigger drawdown signifies an extremely high risk.
There are 3 types of drawdown to know.
Current drawdown - a temporary drawdown associated
with the negative total value of opened trading position(s)
at present.
Once you start trading with 10,000$ deposit, you open several trading positions. Being opened, with the constant price movements, your potential gains fluctuates from positive to negative.
For examples, with 3 active trades: EURUSD (-500$ at present); GBPUSD (+200$ at present); GOLD (-100$ at present) your current account drawdown is -400$ or 4% of your deposit.
Fixed drawdown - the negative value of the closed trading
position(s) at present for a certain period of time.
While some of your trades remain active, some are already closed.
Imagine the same deposit - 10,000$.
On Monday you opened 6 trades, 2 still remain active and 4 are already closed. Your total loss from your closed trades is -500$. Your fixed Monday's drawdown is 5%.
Maximum Drawdown - the maximum observed loss from
the highest value of the deposit before a new maximum
is reached.
Starting to trade with 10,000$ you are already trading for 5 years.
Your account were growing rapidly and at some moment it reached 25,000$. Then the recession started. You faced a dramatic loss of 12,500$ before you started to recover.
That was the maximum observed loss for the period.
Your maximum account drawdown was 50%.
❗️Different types of drawdown give a lot of insights about a trading strategy. Its proper assessment will help to spot a high risk strategy and to find a conservative one.
Constantly monitor your account drawdown and always check the numbers.
What is your highest account drawdown?
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
How to calculate which lot size to useAs mentioned several times before, we risk 1% of our total trading capital per transaction. In simple terms, we risk 1 egg out of the 100 that we have in the basket in an attempt to get more eggs.
However, even though the average price mark where we place our Stop Loss is 30-60 pips away from the entry price, SL levels set differ from one trade to another, and different currency pairs have various differences in pricing (major pairs have small differences for the most part, while minor and cross-pairs have big gaps in pricing).
This article will demonstrate 3 random scenarios and illustrate which lot sizing is needed to be used based on the Stop Loss set and the percentage of the total capital risked while taking into account the size of the trading account. All numbers are imaginary in order to diversify the visualisation of the portrayed examples and give a better understanding of the case.
Enjoy the idea and don't forget to drop your questions in the comment box below!
Reminescence of a Scam Operator (ANTI SCAMMER GUIDE)Reminiscent of the roaring 1920s, the 2020 epidemic and the inability to work for many people brought an influx of new retail investors to the public market. Furthermore, the FED's decision to prop up the market by dropping interest rates combined with stimulus checks handed out by the U.S. government lured in even more investors who were hungry for profits. Although the market sensation also brought a rise of omnipresent scams across all trading platforms.
Lack of workforce, sophisticated methods, and automated bots often play into the hands of perpetrators who try to get ahead of the platform and its users. Therefore, we decided to write this concise article with the purpose of helping new investors to recognize good apples from bad ones.
The most common means of communication for criminals is to use private chat, public chat, comments, ideas, and headline references. Several examples of red flags are shown below.
RED FLAGS AND OTHER POINTS:
Asking for personal information and TradingView account information
One common tactic criminals use to exploit their victims is to ask for personal information or account information (login and password). This information should not be disclosed to anyone, including someone claiming to be a platform's employee/support (as these people tend to have access to this information).
Asking for trading account information
Another standard method bad actors use is asking for trading account information. On such occasions, a perpetrator asks for existing account information or requests a victim to create a new account; then, a perpetrator usually asks the victim to invest money into the account and let them use it in return for shared profits.
False promises
The third point probably accompanies every other point on our list. This point relates mainly to false promises about trading achievements, which often include statements about having a high win rate, high net worth, and an unbeatable trading system.
Financial gurus and lavish lifestyles
A high follower count and strong social media presence do not equal reliability. Perpetrators often portray lavish lifestyles across social media platforms to entice more people and trick them into buying a trading signal service or trading course (or any other service). The public image does not necessarily have to match a person's authentic lifestyle. Indeed, trading as a career is highly time-consuming and does not come with trading from a vicinity of a pool or ski resort; that is just public perception.
Trading signals and trading courses
Unfortunately, most of the time, trading signal services (for buy) lack performance and do not consider subscribers' risk tolerance and account sizes. In regard to trading courses, we hold a similarly low opinion of them as we think learning a skill to trade goes far beyond a few hours of any trading course.
Unrealistic win-rate claims
Most brokerages report that their retail clients lose about 50-90% of the initial capital, especially when trading CFDs. Therefore, we would like to put in perspective how realistic claims about a high win rate really are. Professional traders tend to peak at approximately a 50% win-rate over a consistent period. Thus, claims about a 90% or higher win rate are likely to be false.
Guaranteed moves and risk-free investments
Another tactic of scamming utilizes guaranteeing moves in the market. However, there is nothing like a guaranteed move since the market constantly changes and is influenced by complex factors.
These are just few points we included, however, we ask a public to share their own points in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This content serves solely educational purposes.
How to use the Multibit-System x8 ProcessorFirst, the bases of this chart:
what is multibit:
its a way to transmit 16 bools from one indicator to the next, based on the library
this is called daisy chaining, so to use that stuff u need at least a TV-pro+ license, but i would recommend
premium, as you also have more data to analyze
here you see how its basically looking, x8 can do 8 channels, starting from the bottom which is 0 to the
top which is channel 7
what is a classic signal:
its a signal for daisy chaining based on a trigger line which can do -1, 0, +1 for short,long, neutral
What to see in that Idea:
5 indicators chained into a row which are finally a combined to a strategy
almost Nadaraya-watson -- configured to deliver classic signal on cross-inside
--> to Digitalsignal plot
x8 L3 Processor -- configured to convert a classic to a multibit to channel 0(L),1(S)
--> to Multibit plot
L1 L2 RSI -- configured to deliver a multibit signal on channel 2(oversold),3(overb.)
--> to Multibit plot
all the data is now into the daisychain multibit link (so channel 0 1 2 3 used)
x8 L3 Processor --
here a lot more of the magic begins:
MDB: channel 0 to ch. 0 (filtering small moves (+-4%)
MDB: channel 1 to ch. 1 (filtering small moves (+-4%)
TON: channel 2 to ch. 4 prolonging 2 by 10 bars
TON: channel 3 to ch. 5 prolonging 2 by 10 bars
AND: channel 0 and 4 to channel 6
AND: channel 1 and 5 to channel 7
finaly its configured to send out a classic signal from channel 6 and 7 -> 6 is +1 7 is a -1 else 0
--> to Digitalsignal plot
you can now do alarms on the x8 processor Digitalsignal (trigger above and below 0 for long short)
FINISHED, OR:
L5 Backtest MK5.5
grabbs the x8 processor (Digitalsignal) and does the risk management and does its magic
with the settings in the indicator
--> delivers alarms how the position gets managed with a alarmmessage
{{strategy.order.alert_message}} in the alarmconfig,
than you get the custom texts from the module
Functions inside the x8 Processor (you can read the signaltranscoder library for more details)
And and condition - 1 2 or 3 signals to on channel line 2 output channel
Or condition - 1 2 or 3 signals to on channel line 2 output channel
XOR, XAND, NAND, NOR (this are basic Logic combiners)
TON - wants a signal over a minumum selectable length to let it pass
TOF - prolongs a signal by length selected
next 2 are little bit more tricky
MDP (MinimumPercentagePromille)
- only lets pass a signal if it minimum grows or shrinks xxxx promile
Parameters: would be: 1=Input, 2= 950(5% shrink), 3= 1050(5% grow)
4=outputchannel 5= MDP
RATE - wants a amount of signals in a defined length
Parameters: 1= input, 2= candleamount, 3= minimum count
4= output 5= RATE
that list are most functions a strategy uses, so you can combine more indicators in a row without the need to code around every time you wanna try something.
There are now several multibit indicators out in the wild from me, each of my indicators which i touch again or update will be compatible. at least for Level 1 Indicators i do a 1,0 -1 Classic signal which a x8 can turn into a multibit very quicky.
a implementation reference code you can see here:
at the bottom of the script, both versions, classic and multibit
have fun
📖 STEP 5 to MASTER TRADING: Create a Checklist 📖
🟩 Checklist is the necessary and essential part of your trading plan 🟩
If you already have a trading plan - that’s really great. Now it’s time to take one step further and create a checklist. You will refer to it before each and every trade, and you’ll enter only if 100% of the checklist is present.
You can have different kinds of trading plan, it can have 5 or 50 pages - and it will describe your overall approach. Unfortunately, when it comes to executing your edge in the market, it’s very easy to bend your rules “just a little bit”, and all of a sudden you find yourself taking trade that is only a distant reminder of your actual trading setup.
Most traders will damage their account not because their strategy is bad but because they start to take random set up outside of their trading edge. Blowing the account usually doesn’t take more than several hours of emotional trading.
So that’s why it’s essential to have a short and clear checklist, usually up to 10 sentences usually that describes, point by point, what your trade entry looks like. You can even check every point before entering a trade (I do it). Of course, with time you’ll perfectly remember that checklist, but it’s also important to honestly follow it without checking every time, and the rule-following skill itself is a separate topic.
🟩 You're trading randomly if you don't have a checklist 🟩
Think about it. How many traders are constantly looking for “something else”, one more strategy. Instead of grinding deep into some specific concept, pattern or trading system, they will run to the next one with the first normal losses. They are running on the surfice for years instead of going deep to the core of trading - which, in my opinion, is the perfection of one strategy.
Sometimes they even find what they like and what starts to show some kind of results. But then some time passes, and after any kind of emotional stress (would it be euphoria after a winner or fear and anger after a loser), he can start to deviate from his rules. A beginner can be so emotional that he can enter random trades, one after another, in the course of a few hours, destroying a big part of his account.
There are a lot of other issues behind such inefficient behavior, however, a checklist is one of the first steps to handling it. Because if you don’t truly know what you’re looking for at the market, you’ll take the first trade you’ll find.
🟩 "Right or wrong" mentality is a fundamental flaw 🟩
You’re only right when you’re following your rules, and you’re only wrong when you take random setups. Again: even if you have a loser but you followed your setup - you're right, and even if you have crazy profit but it was a random trade - you're wrong, because this approach is not stable long-term.
Yes, traders do predict the price movements in a way, but only as a side effect of following their rules and executing their system. A trader will not be fixed on his predictions, and because he drew a box or a line, he will not expect the market to obey his colored drawings. A trader’s job is to take a setup based on his experience and testing, and he should let go of the expectations and his trade, managing on the way of course. This is a very deep question, in my opinion, and deserves a separate post later.
That’s why next time when you’ll see someone asking: “Should I buy or sell sir?”, you can surely tell the person is in the very beginning of his journey.
🟩 How to create a checklist? 🟩
Take a moment and describe in the short form how does your entry look like. What are your rules for Structure, Zones of interest, what is your entry confirmation, and what is your risk and management? I like to actually checkmark every point before each of my trades, so I’m sure I’m following my plan. Here’s an example of what my checklist looks like:
🎁Bonus for everyone still reading :) If you’re struggling with any discipline issues, ask yourself a question: “If I would receive a fully funded 100k account, for free, would I start to follow my rules and would I be more disciplined than I am now, and would I start “trading the right way” at last?” Try to be honest with yourself.
It may seem strange, but many novice traders think that something should happen before they will “really stick to their plan”. It could be “just one more good winner”, or “if only I had bigger capital”, or “when I finish this yet one more educational course’’ - and AFTER that I’ll do what I know I should be doing.
So, if your answer to that question is yes, then this is a clear indication you’re still in a very beginner mindset. Try to realize that ANY external change will not change the way you are. You need to change yourself FIRST, the way you behave in the markets and your mindset, and then everything external will follow.
Learn TOP 5 Tips For Trade Management 📖
Hey traders,
In this post, I will share with you my tips for trade management.
But first, let me elaborate on what is exactly a trade management.
Trade management is the set of rules and techniques applied for managing of an already active position.
Trade management is a very important element of any trading strategy that should never be neglected.
1. Never remove a stop loss
Being in a huge loss, many traders refuse to admit that they are wrong. Instead, watching how the price moves closer and closer to a stop loss, they remove stop loss hoping on a coming reversal.
The alternative situation may happen when the price is going sharply in the desired direction. Watching the increasing profits, traders remove a stop loss, being afraid to miss bigger profits.
Both situations may lead to substantial, higher than initially planned losses. Driven by many factors, the market can easily burn all gains and move against the desired direction much longer than traders stay solvent.
For these reasons, never remove a stop loss. It must be always set.
2. Never modify your stop loss if a position is in loss
Watching how the price moves closer and closer to a stop loss is painful. Instead of removing stop loss, some traders move it and give the market more space for reversal.
Even though such a technique is safer than the complete stop loss removal, it is still a very bad habit.
Each stop loss adjustment increases the potential loss, not giving any guarantees that the market will reverse.
It is highly recommendable to keep your stop loss fixed and let the price hit it and admit the loss.
3. Know in advance your profit protection strategy
Where do you take your profit?
Do you have a fixed tp level or do you apply trailing stop?
You should always know the answers.
Coiling around take profit level but not being able to reach it, the price makes many traders manually close the trade or move take profit closer to current price levels.
Another common situation happens when the market so quickly reaches the desired TP level so the traders remove TP hoping to make bigger than initially planned profit.
Such emotional interventions negatively affect a long-term trading performance. TP removal may even burn all profits.
Do not let your greed intervene, and always follow your rules.
4. Never add to a losing position
Watching how the price refuses to go in the intended direction and cutting a partial loss, many traders add to a losing trade in hopes that the market will reverse and all the losses will be recovered.
Again, such a fallacy usually leads to substantial losses.
Remember, you can add to a position only AFTER the market moved in the desired direction, not BEFORE.
5. Close the trades manually only following rules
Quite often, newbie traders manually close their trades because of some random factors:
they saw someone's opposite view, or they simply changed their mind.
Remember, that if you opened a trade following your trading plan, you should always have strict rules for a position manual close. Do not let random factors affect your trading.
Following these 5 simple tips, your trading will improve dramatically. Remember, that it is not enough to spot and accurate entry. Once you are in a trade, you should wisely manage that, following your plan.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
🔔TRADING HACKS: Use alerts or go crazy🔔In my trading, I really like using alerts and recommend everyone to do the same. The main ways of using them for me are:
1. While waiting for a tap into my Area of interest.
2. After entry, for waiting at my breakeven level.
3. Also for waiting for the First partial level, the second partial as well of course.
I use them in other ways as well, for example, it helps me while I'm waiting for confirmation to set up.
It's great to install a Trading View app so that you can receive notifications on your phone.
Some helpful trading tips ✅✅Trading Advise from Richard Dennis who turned a $400 trading account into $200 million.
1. Whatever method you use to enter trades, the most critical thing is that if there is a major trend, your approach should assure that you get in that trend.
2. A good trend following system will keep you in the market until there is evidence that the trend has changed.
3. When you have a position, you put it on for a reason, and you’ve got to keep it until the reason no longer exists.
4. You should expect the unexpected in this business; expect the extreme. Don’t think in terms of boundaries that limit what the market might do.
5. Trading decisions should be made as unemotionally as possible.
6. Trade small because that’s when you are as bad as you are ever going to be. Learn from your mistakes.
Stop Loss Alone is not Risk Management - What is Your SystemTo be successful, you must develop consistency in your trading.
You can achieve this by creating a system to trade.
One that provides an edge to fit your lifestyle and personality.
Discipline is required to stick to your system so that you can measure results (wins and losses) over a large number of trades.
A simple journal helps you to measure your trades.
This provides edge and success unfolds over time, requiring a strong mindset to create, adhere and measure.
Goals are achievable through steps that are part of the process.
Things to consider when developing your system are: Market Phase, Price Structure, Areas of Value, Areas of Entries as well as Exits, Multi Time Frame Analysis, Trend Lines, Support and Resistance, Dynamic Support and Resistance etc.
Pro Tip: Trade clean and don't clutter your charts. Trade around a couple of levels with a single indicator.
Be PATIENT to let trades come to you once you have made a trading plan.
And when the market enters your zone, be READY to take action and trigger your entry based on rules.
If you're a new trader or a struggling trader, feel free to reach out and ask me a question.
If you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments.
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations.
ETH/USD Main trend. Accumulation/Distribution. Pivot pointsThe chart shows the main trend (most of it) of this cryptocurrency. The timeframe is 1 week.
Most people "trade" and do not understand the profit values of the price from the real set zones (not hamsters).
Also shown are the recruitment zones (horizontal channel) and partial reset zones (until the triangle decoupling) of previously gained positions of large market participants.
The last video explained this in detail and showed it on the example of this coin.
Even taking into account that this triangle (1.5 years) is a position reset. That doesn't mean that this formation must necessarily break down. But, this is something to keep in mind, especially the +3600%.
Volatility narrowing, that is, the end of triangle formation is a “doubt zone”—the “market fuel” (small and medium market participants) for the impulse is clamped down. That is, the decoupling of the triangle and the direction of further trend development.
The price is clamped into a triangle. A formation of this magnitude will only unravel due to future world shocks, especially financial ones. Who knows, maybe this time there will be no correlation at all, as the time of "coming out of the shadows" approaches.
Always trade within your working range (for example 1 day), always understand where the price is in the main trend. Based on this understanding, limit the risks, and make a decision about reducing (partial liquidation) or, on the contrary, about adding to the position.
Locally on the 1-day timeframe a wedge is formed on the decline.
I've shown all the decoupling options for this trading situation in detail in this trading idea, as well as in the video.
ETH/USDT Local trend. Channel. Wedge. Pivot zones.
Under idea fixed my previous trading as well as training/trading ideas where I accompanied the price in updates for quite a long period. Note the exact values and more. You can use the material in them as educational, based on reality.
Remember, the basis of trading is not guessing (that's what everyone wants to do), but your trading strategy and risk management based on your knowledge and experience.
Those who want to guess tend to lose money. Do not be such characters in the market, that is, its fuel. I wish all smart people a big profit, and wish all stupid people to wake up from the dream of stupidity.
When to up your share size?Many traders have 2 or more trade set ups.
It is important to know the following:
1)The risk of your trade must be in accordance with the winning percentage of the trade set up.
1)Your share size should increase or decrease in accordance with the winning percentage of the trade set up.
* Share size increase must be in accordance to you account size (account management)
These concepts are what separates really good traders from average traders.
Why do most ppl fail as retail tradrers?I see two main reasons which complement each other for the high rate of failure.
First and foremost, the media and the industry promote this idea that it’s easy to become a profitable trader and anybody can go it. This is, of course, not true. Theoretically, anybody can do it if willing to put the effort and approach it as a business. Practically almost nobody approaches trading with the same rigorousness as any other professional endeavor.
Let’s put aside the first reason, about which there is not much we can do. A big chunk of the industry relies on peoples being naive and we’re not going to change that. On top of the first reason, we have a second reason related to people themselves. Most of those who try trading financial markets simply don’t manage their emotions and risk well enough to survive the learning curve.
Managing your own emotions turns out to be a complex endeavor and constantly changing market conditions lengthen the learning curve. One of the things that makes this business so attractive is also the main thing that makes it so difficult to master.
The direct and sometimes violent feedback you receive from the market, after each trading decision, has an astonishing impact on a human’s ability to keep his psychological well being in check and control his own reactions. It has the potential to disrupt executive functions and trigger instinctual “fight or flight” responses. This leads to emotional trading or trading on tilt which quickly generates more losses than any other mistake you could make in this business.
Most other jobs have a protective buffer zone between usual day to day work decisions and the ultimate feedback — end of the month paycheck. This profession doesn’t. Every little call you make has an immediate impact on your capital. Every little mistake can take a portion of your capital away and every good decision can bring it all back and more. This kind of psychological exposure is heavily distressful and being aware of its mechanisms makes a huge difference.
So … psychology differentiates the pro. Don’t get me wrong … professional discretionary traders are not emotionless but are much more aware and in control of their reactions. The successful pro deeply understands that trading is mainly about people's perceptions and the rest are just details.
You may ask yourself how can such a level be reached? A starting point is to stay away from any market, financial instrument, time frame, trading technique, or any combination of those that doesn’t fit who you are deep inside. The least the exposure to triggers that can awake the demons within, the best.
Always seek strategies that you understand and match your inner self. For example … if you are impatient trade shorter time frames, if you are very risk-averse don’t use huge margin, if you are risk-averse but you don’t have enough capital use margin with a tight risk management (maybe options), if you have a statistical mind try quantitative approaches etc. There are infinite possibilities to adapt to yourself and is a must to do it if you want to have a chance.
It always amuses me to see the vast majority of educational resources geared towards what market does when most of the success in this business is knowing how you adapt to the market, whatever it may do. And, of course, the market is, more or less, the other traders.
Best of luck!
Mihai Iacob
Trading Psychology | How to Perceive Your Trades 👁
Hey traders,
In this post, we will discuss a common fallacy among struggling traders: overestimation of a one single trade.
💡The fact is that quite often, watching the performance of an active trading position, traders quite painfully react to the price being closer and closer to a stop loss or, alternatively, coiling close to a take profit but not being managed to reach that.
Fear of loss make traders make emotional decisions:
extending stop loss or preliminary position closing.
The situation becomes even worse, when after the set of the above-mentioned manipulation, the price nevertheless reaches the stop loss.
Just one single losing trade is usually perceived too personally and make the traders even doubt the efficiency of their trading system.
They start changing rules in their strategy, then stop following the trading plan, leading to even more losses.
❗️However, what matters in trading is your long-term composite performance. A single position is just one brick in a wall. As Peter Lynch nicely mentioned: “In this business, if you’re good, you’re right six times out of ten. You’re never going to be right nine times out of ten.”
There are so many factors that are driving the markets that it is impossible to take into consideration them all. And because of that fact, we lose.
The attached chart perfectly illustrates the insignificance of a one trading in a long-term composite performance.
Please, realize that losing trades are inevitable, and overestimation of their impact on your trading performance is detrimental.
Instead, calibrate your strategy so that it would produce long-term, consistent positive results. That is your goal as a trader.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
✍️WEEKLY QUOTE: How to be rigid and flexible at the same time?✍️
In what way does a trader have to learn how to be rigid and flexible at the same time? The answer is: We have to be rigid in our rules and flexible in our expectations
🟢We need to be rigid in our rules so that we gain a sense of self-trust that can, and will always, protect us in an environment that has few, if any, boundaries. We need to be flexible in our expectations so we can perceive, with the greatest degree of clarity and objectivity, what the market is communicating to us from its perspective.
At this point, it probably goes without saying that the typical trader does just the opposite: He is flexible in his rules and rigid in his expectations. Interestingly enough, the more rigid the expectation, the more he has to either bend, violate, or break his rules in order to accommodate his unwillingness to give up what he wants in favor of what the market is offering.
🟢To eliminate the emotional risk of trading, you have to neutralize your expectations about what the market will or will not do at any given moment or in any given situation. You can do this by being willing to think from the market's perspective.
Remember, the market is always communicating in probabilities. At the collective level, your edge may look perfect in every respect; but at the individual level, every trader who has the potential to act as a force on price movement can negate the positive outcome of that edge. To think in probabilities, you have to create a mental framework or mindset that is consistent with the underlying principles of a probabilistic environment.
💡 A probabilistic mindset consists of five fundamental truths.💡
1. Anything can happen.
2. You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.
3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.
4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.
5. Every moment in the market is unique.
From Trading in the Zone, by M. Douglas
❤️Please, support this post with like and comments!❤️
Guide To Trading USD/JPY (In Top Five Most Traded Pairs)The USD/JPY currency pair is one of the more popular FX pairings available to traders. It’s represented by two of the world’s largest economies with the US (US Dollar) and Japan (JPY). USD/JPY ranks as the second most traded currency pair in the world, according to the Bank of International Settlement (BIS), which compiles statistics in cooperation with world central banks to inform analysis of global liquidity, among other things.
Fundamental Aspects:
Two of the world’s largest economies, USD/JPY is often a popular macro venue for traders – especially as a hedge for manufacturers and global importers/exporters. With the Japanese Yen being the most heavily traded currency in Asia, USD/JPY is often seen as a significant link between the Eastern and Western worlds. Because the pair represents two risk-averse currencies, volatility often lags behind the other G10 FX majors, which will tend to offer greater deviation in the represented economies (such as the UK and US or Europe and the US). As such, traders will often expect lower levels of volatility in the pair, which can open the door to more ranges or mean reversion as opposed to trends or breakouts that may be more common in other major forex trading pairs.
The big focus is on the respective central banks for the possibility of even more unprecedented easing. The Fed and BoJ are two of the most extended central banks and the competing stances on monetary policy have continued to define the multi-year range in price. USD/JPY has traditionally seen strong correlations with U.S. Treasuries and as such, tends to be rather sensitive to broader shifts in interest rates and interest rate expectations. Also of note: the Japanese Yen, as well as the US Dollar, enjoys a ‘haven’ status during times of economic uncertainty.
USD/JPY is extremely popular with larger institutional traders, banks and multi-national corporations. Often employed for hedging purposes, the pair can be used to offset currency risk for manufacturers as well as global exporters and importers. USD/JPY often trades on both USD flows and risk trends, depending on future interest rates expectations and risk appetite in broader financial markets. Range-prone price action and event risk volatility makes USD/JPY an attractive asset for retail traders as well as technical traders across the spectrum.
How & When To Trade USD/JPY?
With such a high market volume, USD/JPY is often a favored FX pair for technical traders. Adherence to psychological levels and potential for sharp inflection moves off support and resistance levels tend to make the pair more amenable for reversal/breakout approaches and shorter intra-day trends. USD/JPY trading trends evolve quickly and over the past five years, the pair has been a popular product for near-term and swing traders. Price action in this pair is notorious for aggressive reversals and fast breakouts, making it ideal for short-term scalping as well as event risk traders looking to take advantage of the sharp spike in volatility during key data releases or macro-economic developments. In practice, this can mean shallower targets and tighter stops. Finally, it is worth paying attention to the psychological price levels, as there is a propensity for sharp inflections off big-figure thresholds. When To Trade?: London/New York overlap is best time (4hrs) even if Tokyo is not open.
📖 STEP 3 to MASTER TRADING: WHAT’S YOUR TRADING EDGE? 📖The topic of trading edge in the market is highly underrated, in my opinion. That’s why today I propose to discuss it, and I hope it can help you to shift your perspective on this matter. So let’s think about this together. What parts does your trading edge consist of?
🟩 THE BIG FILTER
For me, the first part of any trading edge is its filter. So your trading system tells you very clearly when you should NOT be in the market. It protects your capital - both $ capital and emotional capital - from poor market conditions, and low-quality and low-probability setups. And what it actually means when you execute your edge is that most of the time, you will stay out of the market.
🟩 YOU WILL “MISS” THE MOVES
That’s really tough topic for many of us, me included because very often you’re looking to enter the zone, but the price can either turn right before tapping into it or tap and doesn’t give any confirmation for entry. And that could be very emotional. However, the fact is simple - such “missed” moves are also part of our edge. Why? Because if you tested one set up, one pattern, and you know it’s profitable the way it is, then you need to execute it the way it is. Keep in mind, when I say profitable, I don’t mean crazy profitable. Today, with access to prop firms, we need a very low % of profitability to earn for living. We can scale the $ amount relatively easily if we are profitable consistently.
So again, we don’t need every move, and we don’t need the whole move. We just need some part of some moves - and a good edge will make consistent profits out of this.
And only then, if you want, you can tweak, refine and step by step make your system even more profitable.
🟩 THE PATTERN
This part is actually your entry pattern. Notice again, this is just a part of your system, not the whole system. If you really understand this, you’ll be much more relaxed in the market. This part should include a written checklist for your entry - just like a pilot has a checklist before his flight. A checklist, in its turn - is a part of your trading plan, it’s the essence of your trading plan. You will refer to it before every trade.
🟩 MANAGEMENT, LOSERS AND BREAKEVENS
When you executed your edge in the market, now you need to manage the trade accordingly, based on your checklist. So take partials, accept breakevens and losers. If you entered into a high-quality setup, which turned into a BE or a loser - it’s the part of your system, and usually, it doesn’t make sense to overthink it and try to find flaws in your system. But that’s flexible, and of course, you can analyze what happened, and maybe even find something to tweak, but very often a loser is just a normal loser, and breakeven is just a normal breakeven.
📖To recap, any edge will include:
🔹“missed” trades
🔹trades, where price didn’t tap into your entry order just a bit
🔹trades where you were stopped out for several pips and price then went to profit (if it repeats constantly, maybe consider having a bigger stop loss)
🔹full TP
🔹partials
🔹losers
🔹breakevens
🎁If you’re still here, here’s a BONUS trading hack for you. Ask yourself and try to answer honestly this question: “During all the time I’m trading, what is the maximum amount of days in a row, when I followed my rules to the T, honestly?” You will be surprised, but the usual answer is 3-10 days. Yes, people can trade for 2-3 years, but never manage to follow their rules (whatever they have at the moment) for at least a month in a row. It all leads to catastrophe, of course.
Thank you for your time! If you want to see more educational materials, please hit the BOOST button and leave your comments below.
Dima
STEP 2 to MASTER TRADING: what to do with the NEWS. NEWS BRING TERRIBLE TRADING CONDITIONS
During release, spread is all over the place, in addition you can easily miss the fill. So actually worst time you can enter a position is on a release itself, hoping price will rise or fall. But usually, price will make massive moves up and down, liquidating hopeful "news traders" before going in either of direction. So next time when you will regret you were not involved in the news move, just remember that you would not have a good entry point anyway.
PRICE CAN GAP BELOW YOUR STOPLOSS
Another really important thing to keep in mind is that very often during red news, price can momentarily and significantly gap, and now instead of your breakeven or usual -1RR, you'll have -2 or -3RR, and what's worse - you'll have a big drawdown in your emotional capital.
ILLUSION OF UNDERSTANDING
Sometimes beginners, and even advanced traders, fall into this illusion. Someone reads 5 articles about a specific news type, and now begins to think they understand how the news will effect the market.
In reality, each trading instrument is effected by hunderds of factors, and anyone who wants to understand them, should spend months, even years with that one instrument, learning literally everything about it and what effects it. Everything else is just gambling or being naive.
EFFECT HAPPENS BEFORE THE RELEASE
If you've being familiar with smart money or institutional trading, ideas of Wyckoff, you'll know that institutions position themselves long time before news release, during accumulations and distributions. Market structure gets established long before actual realease, and what news do are just producement of sporadic moves, grabs of liquidity and easy manipulations. But only 0.01% of news actually change pre-established structure and starts a new trend, big picture doesn't change because of news. What actually starts a move and a trend are accumulations and distributions, and news really can be a part of it, but only a small part.
SO WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE NEWS?
1. Check red news releases during your day. Don't enter 15-30 min. before and after the news.
2. If you're already in a trade, and price came relatively close to your entry, it's better to close out the position now, because remember that price can gap below your stoploss.
3. If you're positioned in profit significantly away from the price, leave the position open.
So to recap everything above, you need to trade YOUR SYSTEM, YOUR EDGE - for me it's structure, SnD and confirmations - but also we need to acknoledge the short term chaotic news effect, and use our knowledge to manage risk and that's all.
Hope this post give you better understanding what should you do in order to become a successful trader.
I will be grateful if you support this post by smashing the BOOST button and sharing it with other traders. Thank you!
Dima