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Risk Management

GOLD What can price action tell us in the market ? Hello traders: As of this time we are still waiting for the US election to have confirmed result. I thought I share my outlook and bias of the market and explain briefly on price action. If we look at GOLD from the HTF, we can see the price is in a uptrend move. Within this bullish run since August 2018, price has been in an impulse phrase of the market condition. We know that within a large, HTF impulse, we will get many small, LTF impulse/correction, impulse correction..etc to push the price up. This is where multi-time frame analysis will give you a much clarity of the market. Now looking at the latest price action on GOLD. Price is potential going to be in the LTF bullish impulse phrase, which may be the start of the next HTF bullish run. The safest way to capitalize would be waiting for the election to confirm the result, and wait for continuation correction on the LTF to look for possible entries. Thank you
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by jojofang0901
6
SPX500 What will the result tell us this point forward ? Hello everyone: Long time no post since I was very patiently sitting through the US election, and did not want to get in any positions during the volatile market. As we are getting closer to the result, its important to not have FOMO and jump into any trades blindly. Typical newer traders want to jump in the trade thinking they market will be gone if they don't enter, and usually end up with a loss or losses due to their tight SL. My honest suggestion is to be patient and wait for price action to give us more clarity on what the market will do. In this example of SPY, I see 2 possible scenarios. Since the current price action and the structure can be both continuation or reversal, I will explain both. The more probable one is the continuation bullish move, as the price forms this larger HTF structure to potentially break out. Then I would wait for a LTF correction to development and get in the buys. or Price begins to form reversal price action and structure, and we see LTF bearish reversal impulse, and then in this case wait for continuation correction to sell. Very simple approach and no need to stress and guess what the market will do. thank you feel free to comment or ask me questions.
OANDA:SPX500USDEducation
by jojofang0901
Power of Investing lies in your Individual Method Everything can be thought. But not everything can be learnt. Developing a risky instinct in investing is not something you learn. It’s something you are born with. Then you are given the power to share it. Agree? Probably not. It’s understandable. I went into stock trading not because I dig and sturdy deeply into companies’ financial and books at first hand, or mastering the art of options trading, rather I went into it simply because of self possessed gift of intuition to make risky calls that contradicts the majority, which often turn out favorably. Investing is a game, not a gamble. Contrary to the general method of investing, I buy a stock based on instinct then I start digging further in its books and financials to justify the instinctive decisions. Yes, I often lose. But yes, I often gain more. The reward comes from balances and checks that falls in favor of more profits at the end of the day. Take an example, on a 3 day stretch Oct 25th-28th, we all witnessed over 95% of stocks thrown downwards to a darkening red (nearing all time lows). Meanwhile, calls on Ford, GE, and Kodak (I made back in July when the market downgraded them to “Strong Sell”) kept a shiny bright green of blocks (upwards momentum). Now that was some risky calls that paid off. So it begs to ask… What exactly is the rule in stock investing for winning profits? Are there standardized rules to follow? And are these rules created by the 10% of winners, and gets passed down for the mass to follow? There’s the old saying: Read all that works, but never follow them, there’s a reason it only works for the less than 10%. (OK I made that up, but its true). The power of investing lies in your individual method... not the market (standards).
NYSE:FEducation
by RiskyInstinct
1
Using Customer Indicators to find SuperPerformance StocksOne of the BEST parts of TradingView is ALL the thousands of free and paid indicators you can add to your charts to try and find your own unique style and what works best for you. I made a video a couple of days ago where I showed how you can use the built-in TradingView stock screener to find stocks in a nice steady uptrend using moving averages and some filters. One of the disadvantages of that approach is while it shows you stocks in a steady uptrend, it doesn't tell you anything about how volatile they are or have been while they are making their move up. This is where custom indicators can come in and add to the story. With help I created one called the SuperTrail which is a percentage based ATR indicator which simply means it looks at the "average true range" of a stock over time. It is super simple, intuitive and highly visual and by setting it to a default value like 20% I can quickly skim through a list of stocks and find ones where I can buy and in theory hold them longer term because they are less volatile than other similar stocks in the same market - but still making the same or even better gains. Once I have created a short list of these stocks I can then go through them and choose which ones I want to buy, and what the correct "range" is I want to apply as a stop loss to help protect my profits when the trend changes or eventually ends. In this video I show you how I can find stocks that have made 100%+ type gains over the last 12 months without too much volatility and might be worth keeping an eye on. You can find more information and videos on the SuperTrail and what else it can do via the link in my signature. It's pretty cool (I think). If you ever wanted to create your own indicator, this is the place to do it!
NEducation
by zAngus
14
Bulletproof Dollar Cost Averaging Investing Explained.Dollar cost averaging. You probably heard about this strategy, but what does it mean in practice? And which type of dollar cost averaging strategy is the best? In practice it means buying Bitcoin, stocks, commodity and so on every week or month at the monday, sunday, at the start of the month or at the end, not caring about the price. You can also choose one random day in a month , when you make your purchase, more about that maybe in another Idea. An example of dollar cost averaging can be found below backtests. In this test I've compared buying Bitcoin at - weekly opens (Monday open) eg. 06 Jan 2020 Average buy price in 2020 - $9,255 - weekly closes (Sunday Close) eg. 12 Jan 2020 Average buy price in 2020 - $9,361 So buying at the weekly close or at weekly open are both a good idea, but buying at open each week has a bigger return of investment than buying on close by 2%. - monthly opens (First day in the month) eg. 01 Jan 2020 Average buy price in 2020 - $9,245 - monthly closes (Last day in the month) eg. 31 Jan 2020 Average buy price in 2020 - $9,827 Here we can see a bigger difference , while buying Bitcoin at open would gave you average price per BTC of $9,245, Buying at close would make your average buy $600 more expensive, 8% smaller yield. To see if this trend also occurs in the last year, I've calculated also a year 2019 with monthly values. It turns out, buying on open is here cheaper again, while buying Open would give an average of $7,022. Buying at close would make average buy of $7,287, small difference but very noticeable in long term. Example I. I am starting to buy Bitcoin for 15% of my gross monthly income (let's say 500$ ) from first january at weekly open starting from 01 January until today . How much would I have today? Average buying price - $9,255 Current Bitcoin price - $13,180 Yield - 13180/9255 = 1,424 = 42,4% Deposits - 42 per $500 = $21,000 in past value Value = 21000 x 1,424= $29,904 in current value Buying this year at open would give a very slight 0,1% increase in yield, so both buying at weekly open or monthly open is a good idea, maybe another time I can cover some random days in a month! This strategy also works for stocks, commodities and etc. IF you like my explanation, let me know by hitting that agree button or support me by some nice comment! Cheers, Tibor.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by TiborVrbovsky
3
Time consideration short-term vs long-term buy call options Hello traders, In my previous post, I wrote about, At the money / In the money / Out of the money call option, basic definitions, and the 6 factors that determine the option pricing. I remind you that options pricing is based on the partial differential equation from the Black–Scholes model, the solutions to this equation are not linear, which means it is hard to visualize how the option price will behave. A short explanation about “time premium” and “intrinsic value” and “premium”. To buy an option you pay a “premium” the price of the option contract. The premium is the combination of time premium and intrinsic value Out of the money and At the money only have time premium. (intrinsic value is zero) At the money options have the most time premium. In the money options have intrinsic value and time premium. The intrinsic value of an In the money call is the amount by which the stock price exceeds the striking price. For example, the strike price of the option $90, the stock price $100, the intrinsic value is 100-90 =$10. To this, we add time premium for this example we assume $1, The Total price of the In the money option, called premium is $11. The Theta Theta is a measure of the time decay of the options. This is the risk measurement of time on the option position. Theta is usually expressed as a negative number, it is expressed as the amount by which the option value will change. For example, an option bought for $7 and have 14 days until expiration, the theta of the option could be (-0.5), which means the option will lose half a dollar per day if all the other variables stay the same. Options trader should know that time is the enemy of the option buyer and a friend to the options seller. (Options selling will be explained in another post) Long-term options (one year for example) are not influenced by time decay in one day’s time. The theta of a long-term option is close to zero. Short-term options, especially At the money options, have the biggest theta because they are the most exposed to time decay (The less time you have, the more rapid you lose time premium). At the money have the most time premium, do not get confused with premium (“time premium” and “intrinsic value”), Out and In the money options have less time premium. The time decay (theta) of options on a very volatile stock will be higher than of options on a low volatility stock. The volatility of options will be explained in another post, but what you should know, the higher the volatility of an option the higher the price is (more “expensive”). The higher the price, the more time premium the option has, therefore more time premium to lose daily, which means those options have higher theta. I want to note again, that the equation and their solutions are not linear, options will lose more of their daily value near expiration. Chart explanation and conclusions: We see two options in TSLA, short-term, and long-term, the faded colors belong to the short-term and the strong colors to the long-term. Differences between the options: the option price, the days to expire, the volatility, and other “greeks” like the delta. The strongest factors, stock price, and the strike price of the options are the same. We can see that the long-term options have a much sharper angle (more flat) than the short-term angle, meaning the time decay of the short options is much greater as we expect. The profit lines (3,2,1) of the long-term options are above the short-term options. The break-even and the loss lines of the short-term options are above the long-term options. If you have questions ask them in the comments.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by ZoharCho
1
Sandwiches and LolliesRemember to not only keep an eye on the chart above, but also on the related BTC chart. Money Man has been, as you know, watching ETH move compared to BTC and realized that we are waiting for a correction that would see ETH not fully hitting targets. This got him thinking of how, think it was Rockefeller - please correct me, said that he loves selling before others do. Leaving money on the table is not that bad an idea. Basically, what he was doing was only eating the sandwich’s filling and leaving the bread for others to squabble about. Now probably had positions so big that he had to scale in and out. Both ETH and BTC has offered lolly trades lately. Ones where traders could ‘eat the whole thing’ (bar a couple of wicks especially on ETH). This also made me think of nagihatoum (a trader on here) who has a quote by Mark Twain / The Big Short on his status bar: “It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so”. Excuse the metaphor but insisting on eating lollies and not only the filling in the sandwich, if you go trade by trade and not scaling in, could get you into trouble. The reason for Money Man bringing this up is because he sees a bit of a trend on how people interact with his ideas thread. It has become clear that most viewers are solely focused on the one analysis and so not bother to do due diligence and look at previous ones. There are a select few who do look at previous analysis, leaving their footprints with comments on ‘old analysis’ as well. Money Man likes likes, comments and follows as much as the next guy, but that is not why he brings it up – he can clearly see what most traders are focused on – the next trade and a lolly at that. All or nothing. Please read “On Edge” if you are not sure what he is trying to do. The related BTC post (linked below) is related to his ideas on what to do if you end up in a storm and need to steady the boat. Think about your style of trading. There are no ‘correct answers’. Do you want to pre-empt the decisions of the market and trade within patterns; do you prefer confirmations and breakouts; etc. Conclusion: ETH tends to end up at targets once BTC has settled and decisive actions on BTC causes fear and greed on the ETH chart. Look at previous analysis and see how ETH and BTC interact. Do not simply look at somebody else’s analysis and trade on the lines they drew – that will not develop your trading. Very important to me: Please like if you appreciate the effort, please comment to develop this further and Please follow if you think this might go somewhere that you would like to know about.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDEducation
by Rule72
7
Keep Calm and Carry OnKeep an eye on the chart above. Again, the planned thread of ed posts are interrupted by an idea that is more pressing. See it as a bit of relevant escapism if you will. Not that Money Man is a guru, but he has been asked many times by fellow traders how to get out of a tight spot they were finding themselves in. Now we all know that giving financial advice, especially for a character without official identification, is not encouraged. There is a reason for this that we will touch on later. Reading his previous ed posts should give a fairly comprehensive idea as to how traders end up in these situations. But ‘bringing it back here’, the first time Money Man was asked such a question was, I think in 2017 (he did not exist then in this form, but I am having him earn his keep). It was something like a listing on Coinbase of some cryptos that caused a serious rally in price. Followed by a steep correction. The trader frantically wanted to know if s/he should bail or stick in it. Once a trader starts asking, “what should I do?” or desperately looking for somebody to tell them where the price is definitely going next, the trader has lost control as price has gone outside of his tolerance. Money Man foolishly advised the trader that the price would go to the level the exuberance started from. He was ridiculed straight away as trying to be a guru. Price luckily did return to that level and he was hailed as a guru. What was foolish about that advice then? The problem with it was that it was one trader, publicly on an exchange chat, telling another exactly how to trade. Money Man has evolved since those days and hopefully grown wiser. He came to realize that his answer then could have been much better. For one, he offered his take as a solution to somebody else’s problem. It was done in arrogance, thinking he knew the unknown with inevitability. Putting himself at risk of causing harm to somebody else through maybe understanding the problem but not knowing the person having the problem and what their goals were, or what their tolerances were. Also, why did the trader ask the question? Because they were outside of their comfort zone / tolerance and could not get to clear thinking. It was not good for anybody to offer such a specific answer, even though it worked out. By doing that he chipped away at that trader’s sense of competence and confidence. Getting to know how valuable your sense of self is, should get you to realize how important it is to stay humble, for your own sake and the sake of others. People are vulnerable when their emotions take over and prevent them from thinking clearly – why there is a legal attempt to prevent possible charlatans from getting control of the mind of others when vulnerable (more on vulnerability and emotions in the PS). They start to look outside themselves for answers and neglect what they already have. Here lies the kicker: you have to plan and trade yourself out of the situation. You are capable. Your emotions incapacitate you, so get rid of them. How? Money Man advises that you take the chart and look at decision levels, patterns, trends, or whatever your trading is based on (if it is simply based on hunches – you are in serious trouble). Take your calculator, work out what all the eventualities would mean and decide what is within your tolerance. Put your orders in (not market, but limit orders and conditional orders. How many times have you already felt negative emotions about market orders?). Now you have built your acceptance into the eventualities. Put alerts on (Trading View has great alerts), to reassure yourself that the sky will not fall without you knowing and then walk away for a set amount of time. Go do what will get your mind away and quill your emotions and make you feel good about yourself. Indulge in a little escapism. When you get back to the screen again, do the same as above until you feel back in control. Accept whatever happens. Accept that you will never be 100% right, but you steadied the ship yourself. Through this you will retain your confidence, not be vulnerable, and learn things which are worth the money (possibly lost) paid to learn. Conclusion: Prevent yourself from losing control in the first place – have a read of previous ed posts to see Money Man’s ideas on this. Make sure that you know your tolerance and build it into your trades. Be kind to yourself, you are human. All traders end up finding themselves trading in discomfort every so often, so figure out what makes it more comfortable for yourself. Very important to me: Please leave a like if you appreciate the effort, please leave a comment to develop this further and Please follow if you think this thread is leading somewhere that you would like to know about. PS We all know advertising is built on playing on your emotions. What a successful industry that is? It targets your vulnerabilities – your emotions. Fear, greed, lust, etc, etc are well known negative emotions and mindsets, but there are positive emotions too: empathy, respect, humility, etc. These are what make humanity collectively stronger. They are not self-centred but build community. They build you up when you build others up. Help me here, but I think they all could be described as wisdom (a hard word to use when talking about trading as it requires a rewiring of the mind and sounds ‘guru-ish’). Trading is not a zero-sum game, nor is life a competition. Doing it well is the goal.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Rule72
11
EURNZD Trade Recap, Analysis, Management Hi everyone: In this quick educational video, I will go over my 2 trades in EURNZD short. What was my analysis, management and thoughts on this bearish run. I will always start my analysis from the HTF, looking at what the price action is telling me will give me a better edge to enter higher probability setups. I want the HTF to be clear on the bias that I have on the direction. Then, using multi-time frame analysis, looking at what the LTF is telling you. Is it showing you the same price action like the HTF bias ? Wait for the market to give you the confirmation, i.e. continuation corrections, reversal price action structure, LTF impulses...etc that will give you the confidence to enter a trade. Manage the trade accordingly, move the SL to BE in profits depending on the strategies and style. Don't get emotional about the result of the trade, rather if you follow your plan, and you made the decision based on what the market and price action is telling you . Then, repeat consistently for every month, year. :) Thank you
Education
by jojofang0901
6
Risk management helps with many psychological issues in tradingLet’s also talk about another so very important, and often undervalued part of risk management. Risk management really does help me to stay emotionally stable during trading. Just think about it: If I place a trade with a 30% risk and I lose it, it will hurt so much, and it will allow my negative sides, my revenge nature to come out and start dominating. I will be stressed, I will not sleep well if this trade will stay overnight. And even if I win, I will be emotionally and mentally tired, I will most likely not be able to continue trading in a normal state of my mind and emotion. The next thing is not so obvious, but if you have bad and not consistent risk management, you will NOT TRUST YOURSELF. Can you imagine how destructive it is on a subconscious level, how much stress it causes? You start your trading day and deep inside you know you can do many bad things with your account because you know how often you just follow an impulsive behavior, and how often you revenge trade. You know it can be so bad you can actually blow your account in 1 day, as it happened before. Even if you made a self promise to trade according to your plan. And on the contrary, what happens if I regularly, consistently risk 0.25-1% of an account. Many GOOD things will happen, both obvious and not so obvious. First of all, after entering a trade, I will most likely be able to stay relatively calm - I know if I lose, I’ll lose only 0.25-1%. I know I can trust myself and I will not move or remove my stop loss. I'm protected. It will help me to be pleasantly curious about how my trade will develop. If it goes my way, I will be naturally glad it was good, but I will not fall into euphoria and become over-excited, because I risked only 1% and my gain will be 1-2% only. That's very nice of course, but not too much to bring me to a state of euphoria. If it goes against me, I will allow it to do so and hit my SL. And after it does so, I will then realize that it’s totally fine to lose a trade. I can lose even 10 of them in a row, and I will still have 90% of my account ready to trade the next day, next week, next month, and next year. I believe good risk management lets you feel you DO control at least something in your trading, you will feel you can allow yourself to be mistaken about the trades you take. That's why I think we should not concentrate on the ways of eliminating overtrading, stress during trading, emotional trading, fear, and so on. Instead, we should focus on good risk management. I will post more about practical ways of improving risk management.
UEducation
by Yelli_trades
1
How much to risk per trade? Returns and drawdowns.Between 1990 and June 2000 the median hedge fund (there are not that many that started in 1990) had an annual return of 16.3% and max drawdown of 28.5% according to MORGAN STANLEY. Keep in mind the 2/20 destroys profits. (16.3%*1.25)+2% =  22.4%, and 28.5-2 = 26.5%. So what the median fund actually did I I did not mess it up was get 22.4% return a year and a max drawdown of 26.5%. Of course that drawdown is the worst over a 10 year period. The S&P 500 has an annual return of 17.2% and max drawdown of 15.4%. What is interesting is to look at the details, for example the few specialist credit between 90 and 00. The smallest return one had this to show: 11.5% annual, -4.9% max down. The biggest return one had this to show: 17.4% annual, -19.4% max down. More returns but with much more drawdown. Here is the paper: www.morganstanley.com A portfolio of hedge funds, since they're not all completely correlated, would do much better than the S&P500 in particular on the drawdown side. Renaissance says their medaillon fund uses an average of 12.5 leverage and takes 8000 trades at the same time 4000 short & 4000 long to reduce risk even more. If this is true it means going in each position with 0,15% of their account. Not sure how far their stop is but has to be less than 10% of a share price, this means a risk of 0.015% per trade at most, now since there are 8000 at the same time it would be 8000 times more than this, but since there are shorts and longs it sorts of evens out and who know what their real risk is? All we know is it is very small that's for sure. But leverage costs money, and what RenTec did was since their risk was so small and they do a ton of volume, they partnered with banks that offer them extremely cheap leverage. And then they averaged 66% a year in the past 30 years, with a fund capped at 10 billion. The secret is diversification, it reduces dramatically risk which allows for better returns. But we have to come up with this diversification, not easy to find another good place to invest in, another good uncorrelated strategy. And when we find those additional sources, we are not RenTec we have to pay a big price for leverage so we cannot just scale it hard. Certain "strategies" will help reduce risk but they also cap returns much and leverage is not free so it might not be worth it depending on the person. I just want to take a look at a few non-managed "low fee" "safe" no brain funds. Examples for the 10-year period ending January 31, 2017: Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth Fund (MUTF:VASGX) has a Maximum Drawdown of 47.6% and annual return of 4.7%. UBS Global Allocation Fund (MUTF:BPGLX) has a Maximum Drawdown of 48.7% and annual return of 2.6%. This fund has the rather unappetizing combination of low return and a large Maximum Drawdown. LoL this is so bad. And all the grandpas are loving it, they think they found the holy grail and pat each other on the back. Add to this the fact that most people withdraw at the worse time... Over the same 10 years period the S&P500, returned an annualized 7.024% dividends reinvested (4.8% otherwise) with a max drawdown of 57.8% From 2000 to 2020 (september) it had annualized returns of 6.23%. From 1871 to 2019 it returned about 9% (dividend reinvested) - 6.8% if we adjust for inflation, with a max drawdown of Adolf Hitler & Auschwitz the ultimate price. So we're about in the average with 6%. Growth is slowing down (demographics, tech limits, earth limits...) so we will probably average less than 6% in the future. From 2007 to 2017 the top strategic DIY portfolio recipes had returns of ~typically 11% with max drawdowns of also about 11%. Ray Dalio pure alpha 2 has returned 11.5% / yr in the last 20 years and max drawdown I'm not sure I think it was 8% recently and much less before that. Those numbers are hard to find seriously... But well we get an idea of how far it can get pushed. An article from 2017: "Investors earned an average of 4.67% on mutual funds over the last 20 years (Source: www.creditdonkey.com)" of course there is no mention of drawdown because who cares am I right? Mutual funds are not for the best & brightest of investors. Big risk is not a magic trick. "Big risk" does not mean "big return but with big risk". It means NO returns. It means losing with a winning strategy 😂.
Education
by MrRenev
1
5 rules that made Warren Buffett so rich by James AltucherI posted an idea about the Myth of Warren Buffett Buy & Hold a while ago. Here is a general description of how he became so rich by James Altucher. James Altucher is a wall street investor with a lot of hair. You might know him from recently saying New York was dead forever on television, and some actor insulted him on tv because of this. You might also know him from his books and articles, including one of my favorite articles which is him ranting on daytrading explaining why it is so distasteful. He used to be a day trader in the 90s when it was in its early days and made some money but obviously far less than just holding the NDX that went up over 2000%, and he hated it. And finally most people on tradingview from before the 2020 new wave of investors probably know him from defending Bitcoin and selling a "trading masterclass" to crypto "investors". He wrote a book (or maybe more than 1?) about Buffett, articles, and in particular a complete article with the 5 "rules"/"secrets" I described, in a Quora answer to the question "How did Warren Buffett become so rich?". The answer is of course much more complete than the summary I wrote up. Warren Buffett obviously has some skill, he outperformed the market even early on before he was famous and got great deals, he has found and held onto great winners and almost always eliminated the losers (Berkshire was his greatest mistake) but it is interesting to see how saint grandpa aw-shucks and his folk wisdom actually rips the competition to pieces. "Diversification is for idiots" coming from a guy that took thousands of trades and is always on the lookout for an opportunity to make easy money. He says he could be making 50% a year easily on a small account. From these penny stocks selling at BELOW liquidation price? We know what companies he bought, he never just gambled it all on 1. Just bet on several decent ones, get rid of the losers and keep the one that continues its trend up. A quote by Warren Buffett "I will do anything that is basically covered by the law to reduce Berkshire's tax rate. For example, on wind energy, we get a tax credit if we build a lot of wind farms. That's the only reason to build them. They don't make sense without the tax credit." Also makes him look kind and caring to the population. There is a good reason big globalist businesses and rich people are all pro socialism, high taxes, and lockdown. In California I remember the government banning small food trucks in favor of big brick and mortar chains, for some BS reason as always. They also shot independent contractors in the leg forcing them to be wageslaves. High taxes keep the poor people down at the bottom, while a large portion of the poor people - those with the abstraction capacities of a potato - cheer 😑, so the rich even look like they are kind and caring. A bucket of crabs surrounded with giant rich people laughing and dipping crab pinchers in sauce while pushing the crabs about to escape at the bottom saying it's for their own good... High taxes, socialism, lockdown and so on are good for business not just because they keep the unwashed masses at the bottom. Amazon made record profits. But more importantly, these multinationals have competition. They will get better deals, bigger revenue, and even a monopoly, if they can not jsut keep the others at the bottom but DESTROY those that climbed to millionaire or upper middle class status, even just middle class. Goodbye competition. More money and more power. Twitter recently just went full "we're running this show now" and banned a NY Post showing an email that proves Biden knew about his son & Ukraine. This disgusting tentacular social network is banning anyone that tries to mention this story, they are shutting it down entirely. And since everyone gets their info from those sites... Twitter is also Antifa means of communication but I digress. I don't see how any government can completely enforce high taxes without collapsing the entire economy, but even if they magically got billionaires to pay 70%, it is still a small price to kill all competition and be an all powerful overlord of a monopoly that can really take advantage of their power and of their wealth and exploit desperate people (cattle). So you end up with all powerful sociopathic megabillionaire oligarchs running monopolies WITH THE SUPPORT OF THE PEOPLE (FOOLS!) that decide who makes the laws (gee I wonder if they'll pick people that make laws that go against their interests). If you think it's all fine they have good intentions (lol) even if they had, if fools can get manipulated by 1 group they can be as easily manipulated by another. Let's not forget Hitler came to power with the support of YES Antifa & the communist party, even Röhm was a big socialist with dreams of free stuff. Goebbels started as a marxist in his youth... Manipulating crowds of idiots is overpowered can god nerf it or something? Optimists are blissfully ignorant idiots. Pessimists are depressed sad people that miss all opportunities. Adapters are winners. Can't beat them? Join them. Either you are a superman supergenius with higher standards - in which case you'll be a hated arrogant jerk that thinks he is better than every one - or you become a manipulative shark that does not play fair. If this is what society demands then that's how you win. And the crowd will even cheer for you. No one is more celebrated and sanctified by the public than Elon Musk...
NYSE:BRK.AEducation
by MrRenev
3
Why I don't use MA/EMA indicators in my analysis Hello everyone: In this video, I am going to explain my reasonings on why I personally don't use MA/EMA in my analysis. I will start off by saying that I have nothing against traders who use them and are consistent and profitable. I am sure there are many who do use indicators in their analysis along with their trading plan, risk management that find success in trading in given marker conditions. For me, my trading style focuses on price action structures/patterns. I am analyzing the market in its pure form of movement. In order for me to be clear on the price action, I need to “remove” all sorts of other “noise” on the chart. This is when having MA/EMA, and other common indicators can create potential issues for my style of trading. When we have indicators on the chart, it normally does help traders to identify “trending” markets, overbought/sold, as an example. The most used ones such as MA/EMA are going to help traders to find trends of continuations, but it doesn't necessarily become a target or support/resistance for the price to bounce off. Many find trading through such an “area” would be not ideal, hence they can take profit or target that general area. While, some can use that as a stop loss area, so long the price will “reverse” from it. However, when I see the price action on the HTF is in the impulsive phrase of the market conditions, on the LTF the indicators will not “catch up” to the most current price conditions. As the indicators are calculated based on the price movement, and since an impulse pushes up/down the price very aggressively, it takes time for them to take the movement into its equations and move according to it. The important thing is to not “overload” your chart with too many indicators and lines going across. There will be too many “contradicting” biases and it will confuse you as a trader. Simplicity is best, and less is more. Thank you
Education
by jojofang0901
12
Trade Like a Pirate: Ye needs the aRRR!!!!One of the amazing things about trading the financial markets is that it is the only industry where we “common folk” have the potential to EXPONENTIALLY grow our income day after day, week after week, year after year. All our lives, from opening up our first lemonade stand to landing our first job, we are taught to make LINEAR income: to exchange TIME for MONEY. We are told that we must work “X” amount of hours per day, and you can earn “Y” amount of money. If you want more money, you simply have to work longer and harder: work overtime, work a second job, or start a "side hustle", and though it is true you can increase your earning power through multiple income streams or by climbing the corporate ladder, you are always going to be limited to the amount of money you can make because there are only so many hours in a day that you can work. As Al Pacino said in Scarface, "Say hello to my little friend…” May I introduce to you, “R”, which stands for “Return”. There are two powerful paradigms that you, Dear Trader, have access to in our glorious financial markets, and our primary goal needs to be that we MAXIMIZE all we can from them. Paradigm Number One is a popular reason that we enter the fray: Instead of "working for our money” we trade so that we can "make our money work for us." Instead of clocking into a job where are are assigned duties where we will earn our daily bread, we take our “bread" and we assign it to a company, a commodity, or a currency in the stock, options, futures, and forex markets. We aim to hit “X” dollars per day or “Y” PIPs per day and call ourselves successful traders. Paradigm Number Two is where the magic is, and is the topic of this article: let's “kick it up a notch” as Emeril likes to say. Instead of trying to earn "so many dollars per day," let us instead set our sights on achieving a certain “R” per day. “R" is a measure of *return* based upon the amount of ‘risk’ we are willing to take on any trade. A good rule of thumb is that with any trade, you should never risk more than 1% of your account equity and you should never get into a trade without at *least* a 3-to-1 expectation of Reward if you are correct. This is known as the "reward-to-risk ratio”, or “R”. The working principle behind this is that we want to keep our risk *small* (i.e. you won’t blow up your account with a bad trade) and our reward *large*, where your winning trades will give you a minimum of three times what you are risking. In this scenario of 3:1 you don’t have to be the best of traders to be a profitable trader. Say you do 3 trades per day and you were a mediocre trader, where you are only batting one out of three. You can only have a 33% hit rate, only winning one of every 3 trades, and if that were the case you would win 3%, lose 1%, and lose 1%, netting 1 “R" for the day. (3-1-1 = 1) "1R? What good is that?" you might ask? Well here’s where we start talking about the *miracle* of compounding. On Day 1 with a $10,000 account you would look at risking $100 per trade to win $300. If you lost 2 and won 1, your account now has a value of $10,100. So on day 2 you aren’t risking $100, but $101. Every day you place 3 trades and win at least 1, your account grows not linearly, but *exponentially*. Each week you are making more and more money EVEN THOUGH YOU ARE DOING THE SAME AMOUNT OF WORK. By week 34 you are risking $500 to make $1,500. At the end of the year, (theoretically of course) that $10,000 could be worth over $120,000 - Your account has now grown in an order of *magnitude* from where you started. And all you are doing is placing 3 trades per day. Day in. Day out. Do it again for year 2 and see what you come up with! Every day you are doing the same amount of work, but every day you are generating an increasing amount of cashflow as the 1% you are risking grows each and every day. What does it take to get these kind of results? First, it takes a system of trading that you can follow that can give you at least a 1-in-3 success rate. Second, (and this is the hard part...) it’s all about YOU. Every day you don’t trade is anther day your net worth doesn’t grow… another day you will have to WAIT to achieve your dreams, whatever reason it was that you decided to become a trader. But once you start realizing the power of R you will NEVER want to trade time for money again: you will want to increase your net worth by 1R, 2R, 5R per day until you reach that Magic Number you need to say “I’m done… I’ve got all the money I need to live as long as I need to enjoy the lifestyle I desire.” TradingView makes it super-simple to put this philosophy into practice. Using the Long & Short Position tool, you can map out your trade, right-click the tool, select “Create Limit Order” and then change the “% Risk” field to 1%, 0.25%, or whatever your trading plan requires. (My personal “R” is one quarter of one percent, .025). For stock trading, the tool then automatically fills in the number of shares that will satisfy your risk percentage. For futures, it automatically calculates the number of contracts, and for Forex (most brilliantly!) it will automagically perform the necessary currency conversion and calculate the number of Units you can trade. THIS FEATURE ALONE is why I became a Premium subscriber to TradingView to trade through my Forex and Futures brokers - no more position sizer spreadsheets! If you are not using the Long and Short position tool to place your orders you are missing out on a great resource. I will leave a link to a TradingView blog post on how to use it below. A great exercise to get you excited about trading like a pirate is to create your own trading spreadsheet and calculate like a Pirate: Calculate your “aRRRRRRR” in multiple scenarios. There are 250 trading days per year give or take. What if you grew by 1R per day and you traded every day? What if you grew by 3R per day but you only traded 2 days per week? What if you were an options trader and you only traded on Mondays but you gained 7R per week? What if you threw in a home-run 20R trade every 3 weeks? (Yes, they do happen!) What’s your end retirement goal? $2 million? $7 million? When can you calculate that you will get there? By estimating your exponential growth you will be able to estimate the you will reach your life target. Although these scenarios are idealized (we’re not *always* going to have a “Green Candle Day”) we need to have a PLAN for our trading activity. Having a *plan* and matching that with a *vision* will give you a *passion* to DO what you need to do so you will GET what you want to get. As Louis Carrol said, “If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there.” And as Norman Vincent Peale said, "Shoot for the moon. Even if you miss, you'll land among the stars.” Make you plan, and work your plan. And having an exciting Vision will help you wake up early, stay up late, and stay on track. I hope this lesson helps you bring out your inner pirate… I’ll see you on the high seas of the financial markets! Trade Hard, and trade well… Till next time… -Anthony www.tradingview.com
Education
by ocaptain
54
We laugh at noobs: Day Traders and "free stuff" bagholders> Idiotic day trader with 96% winrate and 10 to 1 risk to reward, that sells courses for $99 a month, posts his enormous losses on social networks "Madaznfootballr" took an enormous loss yesterday, blames "manipulation" and says "he'll make it all back" with his incredible gambling strategy. No idea if it is a simulator, but he only posts his gambles after the outcome. Real money or not his foolish clients are going to earn a valuable lesson. One could go over his tweets from 8 years ago when he posted what he did before the outcome and run it against market data and see how much it lost, but sounds like a big waste of time. For the FTC & SEC it would not be a waste of time thought, rather easy to do and it can be compared to his claims of winning to help build evidence quite easily although they would need way more than this and so then it might not be worth the effort (for a small fish). Day traders will have their fun until they get wiped out. > Quant fund manager posts a video about day trading Goes through the history of how it got started in the early days of online trading late 80s and 90s, with the SOES bandits that were abusing the Nasdaq market makers (sort of how some of us did with crypto idiots in january 2018 especially Kraken very unprofessional & greedy participants and easy to punish). Explains how those day traders forced the Nasdaq & MM to enter the 21st century and now all is electronic and the day traders have been replaced by HFT. The SEC release from 2003 detailing how they had to pay 70 million in fines. www.sec.gov The edge they had is of course long gone but the concept has evolved into HFT. There was another kind of day trader at the time and this kind still exists, and this quant trader that has been doing this for 20 years and technically is a day trader as his holding periods are 1-3 hours explains how those day traders are using random techniques and have no idea what their edge is which is normal since their random technical analysis methods have no edge. Patrick Boyle. > Free phone "investing" app Robinhood users had accounts looted, but there is no one to call First let me say that HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Let me catch my breath... HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Robinhood is the gift that never stops giving. Users are reporting their accounts getting liquidated (stocks & bitcoin sold) and money getting withdrawn. OMG so ... users could see pending withdrawal and tried to intervene, Robinhood answer - hold your breath - "we will write back to you in a few weeks". Soooo they hopelessly watched their money vanish with no possibility to intervene. Well I have gotten every single one of my brokers on the phone at least once, and there IS an emergency number and money can only be withdrawn to 1 bank account and I have my money with several brokers and I only deposit whatever I need (+ a bit more obviously to absorb volatility). You get what you pay for. Man what idiots. Ah what a beautiful day ^^ The experienced trading community is under shock and have come to the defense of the victims. Nah I'm just kidding they are either laughing, shrugging and saying "told you so", saying it was not a matter of whether it would happen but when it would happen, writing in huge police and with big flashy colors and saying "here you moron when I write it in big flashy bright colorful colors do you understand"... Most heartless sarcastic anti-social arrogant absolute lack of empathy community in the world. <3 Imagine looking for comfort with this crowd. Besides, they've been warning for years. I'm not saying this is the big end for Robinhood, just another obstacle on the road that won't stop gamblers from joining. The fools that got their accounts emptied sure paid their fair share to keep the app "free". Some of the desperate users have called the SEC & FINRA for emergency action hahaha some of you will know why this is funny. If Robinhood says it will answer in a few weeks the regulators get back to you in a few years... (They do not literally say it like this but it does take years) One of the customers' reactions really finished me off "“They don’t have a customer service line, which I’m quite shocked about,” Bagheri said." An engineer of 36 years old says he suffers mental stress because he lost his entire life savings... of $2,850... Wut? I have so much to say here... western consumerism... all eggs in one basket... and much more Robinhood really is a nest of cretins, just unbelievable. Some US millennials learning a valuable lesson today. They will learn a VERY valuable lesson if Kamala gets the presidency and a VERY VERY valuable lesson if the constitution is changed and the Senate gets in the hands of "democrats" (last democrat president was Bill Clinton and last democrat Senate was sometime under Obama or at least the lower house maybe the senate lasted a bit longer but it's gone now) Their money was supposedly sent to Revolut, I think it is going to end up being laundered in the CRYPTOS THEY LOVE SO MUCH AND "INVESTED IN". "Crypto is not for criminals this is FUD" they scream, as their money is getting laundered in shady cryptos by crypto criminals. God has a great sense of humor <3 I don't want to only criticize Robinhood, they have given access to the complex financial markets to the masses that otherwise could not have their chance, masses that have no idea what they are doing and should not be left anywhere close to a buy button for their own good. Nah but seriously, Robinhood did make it very quick, free and easy to use, especially for criminals. As a closing word, scientists have noted that global IQS have dwindled in the past decade, and there are theories about the rise of IQS before that being more an education and access to food thing than real raw intelligence. > Day trader (that was a registered investment adviser) that lost all of his "friend" money sentenced to $1.4M Another "Wealth Management" investment adviser that decided to be a day gambler Being a professional does not protect from stupidity or make traders profitable when they do something that HAS NO EDGE NEVER HAD NEVER WILL. Most of us will remember the 100X optionsellers James Cordier that made a hilarious apology video 2 years ago after losing all of his clients money and more selling naked way oom options on CME & ICE futures. Another notable example was the gamblers at LJM Preservation And Growth Fund. Recently a Colorado Day Trader Ran Ponzi Scheme on Air Force Cadets and the tip some got out of it is "he was not a registered advisor" clearly we have seen countless times that did not protect from degens and Maddofs. Back to the "friends", the lawsuit states that in 2011 the day gambler took part in "egregious day trading, almost immediately losing huge amounts of money while earning fees for himself". If it happened in 2020 he might have been in the green for a while. The money lost was inheritance so it's not like this guy lost anything he deserved. The 2 men are 60 year old boomers. Imagine being this guy's parents, you leave your money to your dumb boomer or millenial kid for his retirement thinking he'll have nothing to worry about and he loses everything instantly. Boomers are the second dumbest generation after millennials. And both generation are huge lesson givers (millenials with the virtue on top of it). Gen Z is extremely dumb but they are young, and more gullible and zombified by tik tok than sick in the head, maybe they'll grow up and not be as bad. Who throws their ENTIRE life savings or inheritance at 1 broker or 1 "friend" or 1 anything? Because "Muh Munger and other billionaires said diversification was for idiots". Ye and gambling it all on 1 chip is not stupid... Day gamblers are destined to lose, if they are so eager to be stuck to a screen all day long they should get into scalping at least here they'll get to take a ton of trades just scalping the spread, there is no money left, even OGs that didn't want to quit ended up leaving, might be a few pennies left, but at least they'll be busy doing something and maybe not lose everything in such short amounts of time. > Leaked conversation between an FX and a Stock course selling scammers Content creator Coffeezilla shared a funny conversation between 2 "signals" and "trade with your money investment" scammers recently. Nigerian princes are adapting as market conditions evolve: there are turning to new hype things, as with the markets edges change, nigerian princing does not make much money anymore, but selling FX & Stock day trading courses to idiots is extremely profitable at the moment. The fx nigerian prince is afraid of SARS, not covid, the other SARS: Special Anti-Robbery Squad. This police unit is a tidy tiny bit violent and corrupt. Obviously they are black on black and not in the US and not trying to get Trump out of the house so no one gives a rat's ass. Meanwhile 3 us blacks aiming guns at people died to a white cop and 2 died of an overdose time to get the whole world involved. Braindead generation. 40 to 50% of Nigeria is illiterate (mostly bantus I guess). These guys have good english & even speak like young westerners, more likely than not they are wealthy upper class or studied abroad and are qualified to find good jobs. Alot of Nigerians will defend them "they are just taking from the rich" but between the ones that migrate to the USA to earn more than whites, those that illegally enter Europe, and then those that scam idiots rather than build the country they are massively slowing down growth, to be blunt the top 5 to 15% of a country is the sole reason for its economic success the rest of the country just follows along. If they are making a lot of money scamming they are not "distributing money to the people" they are consuming a lot while producing nothing so rather than the opposite, although sure some of this money can be used for importing but just importing consumer goods does not build a country. Obviously these abstract (but quite obvious) concepts are completely foreign to basically nearly everyone on the planet. > Robinhood tries wriggling its way out of a lawsuit by justly calling its users degen gamblers (sort of) According to law360 Robinhood gamblers have filed a lawsuit back in March, on the 4rth, 2 days after the app had an outage that locked gamblers out of their account. LOL! So they're trying to convince us they would have cut their losses? Yes and my ass it is chicken. These clowns are so delusional it is entirely possible they actually believe they would have. We all know what they REALLY would have done: SOLD MORE. If short losses of access was such a nuisance they had to be day gamblers right? Or maybe they were long not short and were looking to breakeven after the market made a small move up, and Robinhood ruined their wonderful strategy of holding bags to zero and run for the exits the instant something goes their way. The lawsuit claims "Robinhood simply abandoned its customers". The rekt baggies also accuse the bucket shop to have a "game-like interface" pushing them to gamble with real money, admitting they were too stupid to comprehend the very real risks. "Unfortunately for many Americans, losing investment and retirement funds or accruing colossal debt is not a game, and the consequences have been tragic". Hehehe. One more time "colossal debt" aaah so relaxing. Welcome to my ASMR idea: "Robinhood users have accrued colossal debt, relax...". Guess where? Can you guess where the lawsuit was submitted by millennial phone app "investors"? California court :) I wonder if these "investors" can't quote a single book like many that were street interviewed by Mark Dice a few years ago, and I reaaally wonder who they vote for and so on. Funny how they keep arguing and the cold hard reality keeps rekting them. And now they have been financially punished for their immense stupidity they are trying to argue their money back. These idiots that think money falls from the sky and life is an mmorpg will never learn their lesson. And so they will keep being made fools of and never admitting it, simply digging their grave every time. This monday (5/10) Robinhood lawyers said that the lawsuit was "so free of detail" it couldn't even explain in what way Robinhood was responsible for their losses. My guess is they got rekt for being dumb, and as California millenials always do, are looking for someone else to blame for their own mistakes. "Well it kinda happened at the same time so... reparations and social programs please". The part about them being degen gamblers is the defendants called the gamblers approach "shoot for the moon", and that if they clearly defined it the amount of reparations for their own mistakes they could ask for would be much much smaller. These kids didn't get slapped enough by their parents or by life. The lawsuit was apparently delayed this summer because the San Francisco judge did not accept the litigation counsel team. Can you guess why? Qualifications? Talent? History? Of course it's because they were men. "Not diverse enough". The judge sounds like they would make a prime Robinhood investor. We should all take example from ISIS, they have made sure to include female lawyers and judges, the women that want to pursue these career paths are allowed too, seriously, the places with the most "diversity efforts" and "women freedom" are the places where women go the LEAST towards certain career paths. Ah I remember the good old days where an ISIS female judge I think it was, asked the Caliph to be able to chop off the head of a "traitorous" other female judge, which of course he accepted, the headless judge surely was overjoyed at the equality she got on that day, no preferential treatment, head goes off like everyone else. The Woke States of America is the other gift that never stops giving. After a likely bubble, everything will crash and they will experience poverty for years to come, and for years to come we will get to laugh at their failures, at their wokeness, at their misery, until they go full fascist and it will sadly be taboo to make jokes about it 🙁 Thankfully the people that frown and enforce those taboos are way too stupid to see it coming so it's free season until it actually happens and everyone is fully aware of it 😁
HEducation
by MrRenev
3