JS-Masterclass: Risk Management #1JS-Masterclass: Risk Management #1
Risk Management in Trading – What does it mean ???
Risk management in trading is following a set of principles for minimizing losses. It’s an essential part of a trading plan that helps to minimize the losses and capture sustainable profits.
One of the biggest mistakes traders make is focusing on maximizing profits while overlooking the potential for loss. Unfortunately, that’s the best way for losses to get out of control. Traders need to leave this notion of greed behind them and always think risk first. Once a trader has mastered this principle, the successes will follow.
Implementing risk management techniques into your trading strategy can mitigate your risk when the market moves in the opposite direction.
Fundamental risk management principles for minimizing losses
Whether you are new in trading or an experienced trader, you always need to consider the following principles. They need to be a central part of your trading plan and strategy.
The 1% rule
The 1% rule in trading is a crucial principle of position sizing. It refers to risking no more than 1% (absolute max. for pro-traders is 2%) of your capital on a single trade.
For instance, if you have $50,000 in your account, applying the 1% rule would mean you won’t risk more than $500 on a single trade.
Some traders use the 2% rule to increase potential profits, but that amplifies potential losses, too. Sticking to the 1% rule will limit your risk on any given trade and help you preserve your equity. New traders should start with even lower risk levels.
Stop-Losses
Stop-loss orders are sell orders that trigger automatically when a traded security’s price reaches a lower, pre-specified price. They can help you mitigate losses on trades that don’t pan out the way you hoped.
For instance, if you buy a particular stock at $32 per share, you could put a stop-loss order at $30 to close the trade if the price drops below $30 per share.
Amateur traders should work with stop loss orders that will automatically trigger when your pre-defined stop-loss is being hit. This avoids a mistake that every trader tends to do – go in with a stop-loss plan but then deviate from it when things go against you.
Using stop-loss orders is key to having complete control over your positions, particularly when engaging in day trading.
The risk/reward ratio
The risk/reward ratio is a measure for calculating expected returns for every dollar you risk on a particular trade. For instance, if your risk/reward ratio is 1:2, you could earn $20 for every 10 dollar you risk.
It’s crucial to calculate the ratio after you’ve decided on your stop-loss and take-profit orders. If the ratio doesn’t match your requirements, you need to wait for a more profitable trade.
Here’s how to calculate your risk/reward ratio:
RRR = (Entry price – Stop-Loss) / (Profit Target – Entry price)
If dividing the potential risk with the possible reward results in a value below 1.0, your potential profit is more significant than your potential loss.
Make sure you maintain a favorable risk/reward ratio and look for ways to improve it consistently. IN order to be able to do that, you need to have a trading log book.
The Batting Average
The Batting Average helps you compare your winning and losing trades. Dividing your total number of wins by the total number of trades will help you analyze your past performance and identify areas for improvement. A ratio above 0.5 (or 50%) shows your trading strategy is working.
Suppose you had 60 winning trades and 40 losing trades. Your Batting Average is 60%, which means you have more winners than loosers.
Combining your Batting Average with your risk/reward ratio will help you manage potential losses more effectively.
Here is a table which helps you better understand the relationship between the risk/reward ratio and the Batting Average:
The table shows that you should have a minimum batting average or 40% or better. Many traders would consider themselves as so called ’2:1’-traders. This means they always try to have a profit of their winners at least 2x their pre-defined risk (stop-loss). As you can see in the table, ‘2:1’-traders have built in failure in their trading strategy as they can be wrong more often than right and still make tons of money – a ‘2:1’-trader can be incredibly successful at a batting average of only 40%. This means the ‘2:1’-trader can only have 4 winners out of 10 trades and still be highly successful.
Risk Management
Your Ability To Stick To a Strategy MattersHello traders,
All the below are based on my preferences, I don't give any financial recommendations and I have nothing to sell you with this article.
I'm sharing content because I see a lot of traders being/becoming broke and I don't want you to be one of them.
Your ability to stick to a strategy matters more than the strategy itself
As a systemic trader, I've always said knowing what to do is the easy part.
Applying a proven strategy with unconditional conviction is when it starts getting hard.
Trading against your deep beliefs
You want to believe a narrative
You want to believe it has to go up or down because someone from CNBC/Twitter said something
When any trading strategy then gives a signal in the opposite direction of your beliefs, you're undecided, you can't take the trade.
I've heard those sentences from unexperienced traders
"It has to go down because the FED increased the interest rates so I'm not taking that Long"
"It has to go up because ABC is an inflation hedge and we're only 3X from the previous ATH"
Let me ask you this...
Don't you think most traders are losing money because of their beliefs?
Trading against yourself
There is a signal to exit but you don't want to exit because the last few exits made you exit too early..
There is a signal to enter but you don't want to enter because the last few entries weren't winners...
Then comes an entry that you decided to ignore, the trade worked wonderfully but you ignored it....
Then comes an exit for a trade you're in that you decided to ignore leading to a bigger loss....
See a pattern here?
Following a strategy is hard because it's trading against who we are and what we think.
But, once we learn to ignore as much as possible our "human" side, is when we start making the sweet gains!!!
Quotes of the day
- “Everything must be made as simple as possible. But not simpler.” ― Albert Einstein
- “Any system was a straightjacket if you insisted on adhering to it so totally and humourlessly.” ― Erica Jong, Fear of Flying
I'll keep bringing a few articles like this every week because it helps me clarifying my thoughts AND giving back to the community makes me feel good about myself somehow :)
Thank you for reading
Dave
BIGGEST TRADING MISTAKES YOU MUST KNOW
While some trading mistakes are unavoidable, it is important that you don’t make a habit of them and learn from both successful and unsuccessful positions. With that in mind, these are the 10 most common trading mistakes.
1 - Not researching the markets properly
Some traders will open or close a position on a gut feeling, or because they have heard a tip.
It is important to back these feelings or tips up with evidence and market research before committing to opening or closing a position.
2 - Trading without a plan
3 - Over-reliance on indicators
4 - Failing to cut losses
The temptation to let losing trades run in the hope that the market turns can be a grave error, and failing to cut losses can wipe out any profits a trader may have made elsewhere.
5 - Overexposing a position
6 - Overdiversifying a portfolio too quickly
While diversifying a trading portfolio can act as a hedge in case one asset’s value declines, it can be unwise to open too many positions in a short amount of time.
7 - Not understanding leverage
8 - Not understanding the risk-reward ratio
The risk-to-reward ratio is something every trader should take into consideration, as it helps them decide whether the end profit is worth the possible risk of losing capital.
9 - Overconfidence after a profit
10 - Letting emotions impair decision-making
Emotional trading is not smart trading. Emotions, such as excitement after a good day or despair after a bad day, could cloud decision-making and lead traders to deviate from their plan.
Every trader makes mistakes, and the examples covered in this article don’t need to be the end of your trading. However, they should be taken as opportunities to learn what works and what doesn’t work for you.
How To Know When To Quit (Part 2/2)Hello traders,
All the below are based on my preferences, I don't give any financial recommendations and I have nothing to sell you with this article.
I'm sharing content because I see a lot of traders being/becoming broke and I don't want you to be one of them.
Sharing the second part of this article posted yesterday
5. Know your limits and set rules around it
Set out the rules beforehand rather than waiting until you are in it.
Because you will not make good decisions then.
There are particular states where you’re going to feel suboptimal that have to do with your own physical state.
You’re tired, you’re stressed, whatever, but then there are also cognitive states where you’re going to behave sub-optimally.
And the particular cognitive state where you’re really going to behave sub-optimally is when you’re in the losses.
And the reason that you’re going to be a terrible decision-maker is, except for the part it’s going to cause you to be emotional, is that you’re going to want to get your money back.
And this is a really big problem for investors.
You start down a path, it starts to lose and you don’t want to sell, because you can’t get your money back.
That’s the moment that you go from a loss on paper to a sure loss.
It’s when it becomes a realized loss.
And that is a moment that we do not like.
And so we will come up with all sorts of reasons to think we’re being rational in continuing on, when we’re being completely irrational because we’re just trying to protect ourselves from having that moment of having to take the sure loss.
6. Loss aversion
Our loss aversion prevents us from selling investments at a loss.
But this extend beyond trading too.
Decisions should be made based on the future, not the past.
I think people are familiar with loss aversion.
We don’t like to start things that carry with them a chance of loss, even if we’re winning to the decision.
When you already have a loss on the books, or even a cognitive loss on the books, it was trading at one level and now it’s trading lower, we don’t like to sell.
In other words, this becomes loss aversion stops us from starting aka taking trades sometimes.
Of course this is irrational, because what matters is, is the next dollar that you spend worthwhile, not did you already spend a dollar.
We shouldn’t care.
7. Endowment effect
We value things we own, much more than things we don’t own.
Even though the opposite might be true.
It could be stocks, bonds or our IDEAS.
We wrap our identity in things and won’t quit despite the warning signs.
And then we also have the issue, which I think is really important for investors, you have something called an endowment. We value things we own, much more than we value things that we don’t own.
And it’s not just ownership over investments, we actually own the stock, or we own the bond, or whatever, we own the option, but it’s also our ideas.
And every time we invest, we have ownership over our thesis.
And here’s the interesting thing, is that when the thing that we’re doing is out of consensus, this is when it gets really bad.
So when we think about these issues of sunk cost, and sure loss aversion, and the way our identity gets wrapped up in things, and the way we have ownership over things, and the way that affects our inability to stop, you have to put a big huge blinking warning sign when the thing we’re doing is out of consensus.
9. The kill criteria
Think in advance the signals you might see in the future that means that it is time to quit.
To continue holding this investment, what do you need to see in the next few quarters or years?
Sticking to things too long denies us future opportunities.
Think in advance about what are the signals that I might see in the future that would tell me that it’s time to walk away and you will get better at it.
What do I need to see within the next quarter or the next two quarters from the way that this investment might perform?
Essentially think, “How long can I tolerate this, or how much time do I need in order for me to actually get the information that I would need in order to be able to make a decision?”
Figure out what that time period is and then figure, at the end of that time period
“What would I have to see?
What are the benchmarks that this thing would have to hit in order for me to feel like I ought to continue?
And if it doesn’t hit these things, then I should walk away.
Quotes of the day
- "Losses loom larger than corresponding gains" ― Amos Tversky
- "If we could be freed from our aversion to loss, our whole outlook on risk would change"― Alan Hirsch
I'll keep bringing a few articles like this every week because it helps me clarifying my thoughts AND giving back to the community makes me feel good about myself somehow :)
Thank you for reading
Dave
How To Know When To Quit (Part 1/2)Hello traders,
All the below are based on my preferences, I don't give any financial recommendations and I have nothing to sell you with this article.
I'm sharing content because I see a lot of traders being/becoming broke and I don't want you to be one of them.
Splitting this article in 2 parts because it’s dense and I don’t want to lose people who might think “too much text I won’t read”
Let’s talk about:
– Cognitive biases
– Decision-making
1. Be at ease with a bad outcome
Focus on the decision-making process instead.
Think in probability and play to the best of your hand.
Don’t dwell on a bad outcome if the process and decision-making were sound.
You have no control over outcomes when luck is involved.
Embrace uncertainty.
Understand that you have to get down to what do I have control over, and what don’t I have control over.
And I have to accept the tremendous influence of luck, I have to accept the fact that I’m having to make these very high-stakes decisions without being able to accurately predict where the candles are going.
2. Advice from Eric Seidel: Do not dwell on unlucky events
Eric Seidel is a 9-time world series of poker bracelet winner who made $40 million.
By all means, discuss what could have been done better.
If you played to the best of your "cards", that’s all that matters.
He goes, “I don’t want to hear about it if there’s not a question. I don’t care that you got unlucky.
I get unlucky too.
And I have to deal with losing with two jacks against two nines all the time also.
I certainly don’t want to take on your emotional trash about it myself.
And what’s the point of talking about it? You made a great call and lost, who cares?
Would you have changed anything about what you did? Do you think you got the read wrong?
It sounds to me like you did everything right. So why are we even talking about this?
I mean this is the thing, if it really was just bad luck, who cares?
This is about embracing that uncertainty, right?”
3. All decisions are probabilistic
And we make these probabilistic decisions all the time.
Consciously or subconsciously.
Whether its choosing your partner or the route you are taking to work.
You’re making a forecast.
The moment we make it explicit, we start to create feedback loops we can learn from.
Even if you don’t think you’re doing it explicitly, literally every single decision you make is probabilistic, because it’s a forecast.
It’s a forecast made under conditions where you don’t have all the facts.
You generally know very little in comparison to all there is to be known.
We have to reject the idea that if you’re not doing it explicitly, that you aren’t thinking probabilistically because every decision is a probabilistic decision just by its nature because the world is probabilistic, that is how we decide.
Now the act of trying to make these things explicit will make you better at it, because what it will start to do is allow you to create good feedback loops.
4. Don’t trade if you don’t have an edge
And we are very good at fooling ourselves into believing that we have an edge.
Set up structures, write down your thesis.
What new information will break your thesis?
When should you quit?
I think we’re very good at fooling ourselves into believing that we have a rational reason, that we have an edge.
And I think that that’s particularly so when we’re in a situation where the thesis would affirm other things that we already believe about the world.
I think it’s particularly so when we’re already in the investment/trade.
So one of the things that we need to do is set up structures around us that will allow us, first of all, to be better at those, are we really being rational and starting… but more importantly, because the starting decision is always uncertain, is to say, as we discover new information after we’ve started, are we stopping, right?
Are we figuring out when we should stop?
Because it turns out that we’re very, very dense when it comes to actually paying attention to the signals after we’ve started something that we ought to stop it.
And that’s where we get particularly irrational.
Quotes of the day
“Pain is temporary. Quitting lasts forever.” ― Lance Armstrong
“The elements of good trading are: (1) cutting losses, (2) cutting losses, and (3) cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance“ ― Ed Seykota
"Confidence is not “I will profit on this trade.” Confidence is “I will be fine if I don’t profit from this trade." ― Yvan Byeajee
I'll post the second part tomorrow
I'll keep bringing a few articles like this every week because it helps me clarifying my thoughts AND giving back to the community makes me feel good about myself somehow :)
Thank you for reading
Dave
How to Blow Your Account | Step-By-Step Guide 💰 to 🪙
Hey traders,
In this article, we will discuss the set of actions, habits and beliefs that will blow your account.
1. Trades are based on emotional decisions
Behind each trading position must be a reason.
The entry reason of a professional trader is based on a very strict and objective conditions, while an unprofitable trader follows emotions and intuition.
2. Stop loss placement is for losers
A lot of traders consistently neglect placing a stop loss. Remember, just one single trade without that may blow your entire account.
3. Set unrealistic goals
There is a common misconception concerning trading: that the equity size is not proportional to potential gains. Such a reasoning leads to various false conclusions.
One who is trading with 100$ account and expecting to buy lambo, will inevitably blow the account.
4. No time for trade journaling
Why to even bother yourself with trade journaling?! It is just waste of time.
Remember, that trading journal is one of that best tools for learning. Constantly assessing your past decisions, you identify the flaws of your strategy and fix that, increasing your future gains.
5. Trading plan is for fools
I know a lot of traders who trade without a plan.
Remember, that the trading plan is your roadmap. Without that, it is impossible to become a consistently profitable trader.
6. Blindly following other's view
While you are learning how to trade, your task is to learn the reasoning behind the trades of the pro's in the industry. Following them without reflections, you are not learning and, moreover, you are becoming dependent. Losing, you put the responsibility on their shoulders instead of yours.
Such an approach will lead you to failure.
Learn to become responsible in your trading decisions and execute your own analysis before you follow any other trader.
7. Who needs economic data
As we discussed many times, fundamentals are the driver of the market. Neglecting the trends and global situation, not studying the news, you will unavoidably be fooled by the market.
8. Indicators are the magic pill
I know a lot of traders, who spend thousands of dollars looking for a magic indicator - the instrument that will make tons of money.
The fact is that indicators are just a tool in your toolbox. Its goal is to provide some minor additional clues to your analysis.
Overestimating the importance of indicators, you will most likely blow your account.
9. Not investing in education
Many traders are spending their money not on education but on fancy tools, signal services, robots and indicators.
However, the fact is that only knowledge gives freedom, only skills can make you independent.
10. Back testing is pointless
Trying different strategies, many traders intentionally skip the back testing part.
Remember, that back testing is the most proven way to verify the efficiency of a strategy, allowing you to save time and money simultaneously.
11. Paper trading does not make any sense
Same thing with paper trading. For some reason, the majority of the traders skip demo trading, quickly opening a real account.
However, the fact is that demo trading is the best, risk-free tool for learning how the market works.
Unfortunately, these 11 fallacies and misconceptions are very common. Analyze your trading and make sure that you are not making these classic mistakes.
What would you add in that list?
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
The 7 Levels of Financial Freedom
Hey traders,
In this article, we will discuss the ladder of financial independence.
Level 1 - Solvency
You cover your debts and living expenses with your income.
Being solvent is considered to be shaky states. Once you stop earning for any sake of a reason, you immediately become in debt.
Level 2 - Stability
Besides being able to cover your living expenses and debts, you also have an emergency savings.
The emergency savings usually cover 1-2 months of your basic expenses, making your state more sustainable.
Level 3 - Debt Freedom
You are free of debts and that lets you start investing and save even more.
It is the transitional level in our ladder from unstable to a secure state.
Level 4 - Security
Your investments cover your basics expenses.
While you keep earning, the money that you invested start bringing more money fortifying your state.
Level 5 - Flexibility
While your investments are still not sufficient to cover all your costs of living, it fully compensates 1-year costs of your basic expenses.
Level 6 - Independence
Your investments cover all your living costs, letting you live wherever you want and spend on luxuries.
Level 7 - Abundance
Money is no more a concern to you. You have more than you and your children will even need.
The understanding of the level where you are is crucially important for building your investment strategy.
Keep working and learning to constantly climb the stairs and grow your wealth.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
10 Trading Rules I Used To Stop Losing MoneyHello traders,
All the below are based on my preferences, I don't give any financial recommendations and I have nothing to sell you with this article.
I'm sharing content because I see a lot of traders being/becoming broke and I don't want you to be one of them.
I) Hard work versus efficient work
Work ethic doesn’t matter.
You can work as hard as possible and not get rich.
So getting rich is not about pure hard work.
Getting rich is about knowing what to do, when to do it, and with whom to do it.
It is about understanding.
Once you figure this out, the next is about executing the path —> which will probably require the hard work.
But as we see, the work comes implicitly in the execution of the path/destination.
So, don’t do the hard work for its own sake, that would be a waste of time.
II) The Understanding
You can develop this skill by becoming a perpetual learner.
And when feeling confused during the learning sessions ==> that’s OK.
Your brain is like a muscle, and it means that is being “trained”.
Foundation of “axioms” (based on full truth) are critical for learning and interpreting new information.
So, when developing the “axioms” make sure you are consuming high quality information.
III) How do we make sure that our foundation is high quality
Step 1 : Stick to hard science, mathematics, the “basics”.
Why? There is no disagreement between people in these areas, so they are solid foundations.
With trading, simple always outperform complicated.
I’ve seen price action traders outperforming traders with multiple dozens of indicators on their chart.
In hindsight now the answer to why that is is obvious to me….
That’s because we tend to overcomplicate things and tend to believe that a more complex trading strategy leads to better results.
This couldn’t be further from the truth - this is untrue.
Sharing here a non-exhaustive “axioms” list I learned the hard way (not listed in a specific order)
1. Cut social medias completely when trading.
I literally block my own access to Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, Tim Tok… giving my access away to someone I trust and telling that person to change my password/email so that I can’t access them anymore.
2. I don’t necessarily need more winners than losers but I need my winners to be at least 2X in pips value my losers
3. More trades doesn’t mean more profit
4. Less trades doesn’t mean more profit either
The profit isn’t correlated to the number of trades I’m taking per day but to me being reactive whenever a great opportunity presents itself
5. This one is very personal and based on who I am as a trader
Leverage is OK in the 2X/3X range at most and only for rare opportunities with a huge risk to reward ratio.
6. I must NOT trade what I want to BUT trade what’s moving
7. It is OK to feel GREED/FOMO/FEAR, I can always adjust my position size to hedge my doubts.
8. It is NOT OK to make some good trades and keep trading for that trading session out of GREED/FOMO
9. It is NOT OK to not take a trade because the previous trades were losers
That one required me years of self-mastery to accept it
10. I MUST ALWAYS expect the unexpected => leading me to banking profit automatically when the candles hit a Supports/Resistances zone AND withdrawing to my bank account on a weekly basis
Step 2 : Read the classics and listen to trading podcasts where the top traders explain their strategies, mindset, psychology when approaching trades.
I really like the Youtube channel SMB traders and the podcast “Chat with traders”
PS: I have no affiliations with any of them.
From those 2 sources of information only, you’ll have a good spectrum of what could work and certainly what will never work with trading.
Once you acquire the solid foundations:
1. You won’t fear any book, and will have the confidence to learn anything you want.
And the more you learn, the more options you’ll have on how to make money from your trading.
Because you can understand whether a trading strategy could even be profitable without backtesting it.
2. You can then pick the thing where to achieve mastery.
You will achieve “mastery” only on the few things you’re obsessed about.
For me, I’m a “master” at trading indices futures and CFDs.
I’ve been doing it for more than 10 years.
I can trade them even without indicators as I know how the DAX, DOW, SPX often react after a gap or a macro event or after a specific price action.
Quotes of the day
Leaving you now with a few quotes from some of the brightest minds
“Study game theory, psychology, mathematics and computers” - Naval Ravikant
“Opportunities come to the prepared mine” - Abraham Lincoln
“An investment in knowledge pays the best interest” - Benjamin Franklin
“Formal education will make you a living; self-education will make you a fortune” - Jim Rohn
I'll keep bringing a few articles like this every week because it helps me clarifying my thoughts AND giving back to the community makes me feel good about myself somehow :)
Thank you for reading
Dave
17:00 aka 5pm NY- Trap ZoneGood day everyone,
One of the earliest mistakes I ever made as a Forex trader is looking for trades around 5pm NY time. If any new traders are reading this, the only times you really need to look for trades is between 2am and 12pm NY time. Trying to trade when the new day starts which is 17:00 aka 5pm NY, is one of the easiest mistakes to avoid making. The spreads become astronomical and the price movement erratic. This is largely brokers trying to wipe out anyone who is in a position and has their stops too close. On a pair like GBPAUD, the spreads jump to about 25 pips and in the example shown, the range wiped up and down 75 pips multiple times in 15 minutes. Go to a 1 minute chart and look for yourself.
That is also why I will never hold a trade overnight again. It's hard enough to trade much less when your broker wants to poke you out of your position or make you withstand a 100 pip price swing, because of an "illiquid market" precisely at 17:00 aka 5pm NY which is just an excuse to justify their behavior of spread and price manipulation. At least that is my theory, anyway. So just avoid the trap and develop a system where you are in and out of trades in the same day. The less time you spend in a trade, the less time the market makers can toy with your position. Not to mention the mental capital that one must preserve in order to be successful in this game. Knowing when not to trade is just as important as knowing when to trade. This is an offensive and defensive battle and it's up to us to figure out the tactics that work to our benefit.
One tactic that I just shared is to never trade at 5pm NY time. So wherever you are in the world, find NY time and match it to your region and not only trade the hours of 2am-12pm (more specifically 8am-12pm) NY, but also avoid trading the trap hour of 5pm NY. I've spent many thousands of dollars learning the lessons in this post so you don't have to lol. Thank you for reading and happy trading!
How you trade impacts how you feel 😀It's no secret that managing your trading psychology is the biggest challenge in your trading journey.
Some say it counts for 80%+ of what's needed to be successful.
I totally agree...
However, there's a key factor in this for me.
How you actually trade to start with!
Correct trading psychology starts by realising you need a strategy.
If you're guessing with no real plan or risk management surely you're going to be more stressed and overwhelmed than a trader who has a plan, has the data to support his strategy and manages his risk?
So once you get your system/strategy nailed on, this in turn will help manage your fear.
Greed is another factor, but this comes from your expectation.
Expectations and reality need to be aligned with one another.
Your expectations can come from your data and your testing.
But if you've skipped this step you'll be chasing unrealistic expectations.
Not just in terms of % gains, but in understanding your drawdown periods too.
So in summary both are completely related. You give me a trader that's really struggling with his trading mindset and fear and within a month they won't be feeling the same way.
Likewise, if give me a trader who is calm and in tune with his system and emotions, we'll quickly change this by getting him to trade randomly!
No trading psychology means no trading strategy, No trading strategy means no trading psychology. These two elements are so intertwined.
Thanks for looking at my idea.
Darren 👍
Scaling-in and Scaling-outHello traders,
All the below are based on my preferences, I don't give any financial recommendations and I have nothing to sell you with this article.
I'm sharing content because I see a lot of traders being/becoming broke and I don't want you to be one of them.
Scaling-in
There are times when I will scale into a position.
When the price dips into the my Moving Average pullback zone, I'll typically get 25% of my position there.
I'll then add a full position if the price dips past that MA
Don't add to winners
I wouldn't advise adding to winners
I would advise adding to losers IF it's part of your plan.
Though, most traders adding to losers end up losing more statistically.... then even I don't do it.
You should always have a stop in place and get out at your stop (or preferably use our hard exit system)
NEVER add to your position after your stop has been hit
That's not what I'm advising
I always make sure to get in a very small position early in case I miss the real entry.
It allows me to still have a decent entry if the price drops lower AND allows me to catch the move if the price decides to rip
Alright, let's talk about exits👇
Scaling-out
Your exit strategy will ultimately depend on your overall strategy
However, for ALL small accounts, I'd recommend NOT to scale.
Scaling exits should really only be for accounts that can afford to take multiple contracts (5-10+)
Otherwise, it's better off just take 100% off at your first target
And I really mean it
Remember, when your Stop-Loss hit you take 100% of a loss.
This should be obvious.... though I see plenty having multiple Take Profit levels and 1 Stop Loss level
And they wonder why they're losing.... mostly because of basic mathematics (literally additions and subtractions).
A big loss is very hard to offset with multiple partial profits across multiple trades.
If you do have a larger account, here's how I'd recommend setting up your exit strategy
IMO, it's best to only have 3 targets/exits MAX.
After 3, there's really no need to complicate your trading anymore
I'm taking the MAJORITY of my profits out at first target... 80+% of your position
Otherwise, I very often end up taking the trades, having a lot of unrealised gains but bringing back home nothing.... which is NOT ACCEPTABLE for me.
It's UNFORGIVABLE to earn a decent amount of $$ and letting everything go because I thought the trade should have gone further.
I like moving my stop to breakeven after I've taken my first partial
After you've taken your first partial, that's when you can leave 20% for runners.
You can either take the remaining runners out at your second target
or
Take half out at your second target and leave 10-15% for your last target
The larger your account size, the more targets I recommend you have
I also like moving my stops up after each target to make sure the trade doesn't go red
Why do I use this scaling strategy?
By taking the majority of my size off at my first target, it allows my strategy to keep a decent R/R rate, assuming I move stops to breakeven
It also leaves my trading more stress-free since I have less of a position on.
Allows for the trade to come back breakeven and I've already taken most off
On top of that, I have 20-30% of my position as runners in case this stock starts to explode
Doesn't happen often, but sometimes the remaining 20% ends up netting me more profit than the original 80% did.
At the end of the day, it's up to you how you want to scale
These are the methods I found most effective, depending on your account size and your strategy.
Conclusion
- As a beginner, I used to stick with 1 TP/1 SL only and that's how I brought home gains
- Once my trading account reached the 6 figures threshold, I allowed myself to have 2-3 TPs but I was taking most off the table at the first TP level and automatically moved my SL to Breakeven
- Adding to losers (aka the Dollar Cost Average method) also called martingale is a solid way for most beginners to depart from their money quickly - I'll make another article on martingale and why I think it's not for everyone
INVESTING VS TRADING VS GAMBLING | Know the Difference
Hey traders,
In this post, we will compare investing and trading with gambling.
📈Investing
Investing is the act of putting money in a financial market with the expectations of a long-term positive return.
The investing decisions are usually made using fundamental analysis.
The main goal of an investor is to predict the long-term market trends and benefit on them.
Professional investing also involves assets allocation and diversification aimed to hedge potential risks.
💱Trading
Trading is the process of selling and buying financial instruments expecting a short-term (occasionally, mid-term) profit.
The trading decisions are usually based on technical and fundamentals analysis.
The goal of a trader is to predict local price fluctuations and catch them.
Professional trading implies strict, rule-based actions following a trading plan.
🎰Gambling
Gambling is the act of betting on a specific event with the expectations of winning some value.
Being completely luck-based, gambling usually involves get rich quick schemes and pursuit of easy money.
What differs professional trading and investing from gambling is the fact that professional trading / investing involves objective analysis and strict planning, while gambling remains purely intuition based.
Unfortunately, most of the market participants pretend that they trade and invest professionally while acting as gamblers in fact.
Remember that long-term, consistent profits can be achieved only with the plan. Your intuition may bring some short-term profits, but in a long-run it will most likely lead you to a bankruptcy.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
The main reason you're blowing up accountsAlmost all blown-up accounts happen quickly
Typically from only 1-3 trades
There are 2 main causes for this:
- Risk Management
- Emotions
Let's dive into both👇
Risk Management
Risk management is crucial to becoming a successful trader
The best way to grow an account is to risk the same % of the account per trade
I suggest no more than 5%, but the lower the better
For example...
If you're risking 3% of your account per trade, you have to lose 33 trades in a row.. to blow up your account.
That's very unlikely.
The reason most traders blow up is because they full port or go all-in on every trade and risk way too much
This is the fastest way to destroy your account.
ALWAYS risk a small % of your account per trade
It not only will prevent you from blowing up... but will also be the fastest way to help you grow your account
Emotions
The second way is Emotions.
Maybe you are using risk management, and are only risking 3%.
Then your stop hits and you don't get out
And price keeps dropping and dropping and dropping...
It will come to my breakeven and I'll get out, you tell yourself
But it never does
Then once you finally get out, your account is gone.
I've done that LOADS of times
So how did I fix that?👇
I realised that I wasn't getting out at my stop because I didn't trust my strategy.
At the time, I wasn't trading with conviction
I'd take a trade because it just looked like price was going to move higher.
No real strategy or reasoning for the trade.
It's extremely difficult to control your emotions when you shouldn't be in a trade in the first place!
Once I noticed this I got a grip on my strategy and really started being strict on my entries
After clearly defining my strategy, it gave me more confidence in my setup and my edge
which ultimately led to me becoming more disciplined and allowing myself to take the loss.
Conclusion
So if you're looking to stop blowing up your accounts...
- Use Risk Management
- Trade with conviction using a clearly defined strategy
How Does Forex Market Work?How does Forex market work?
As a trader, you decide if you would like to buy or sell. The broker finds someone who would like to do the opposite and they introduce the two of you. The broker then takes a small cut (spread) of the transaction price for arranging the connection. Foreign exchange is largest liquid market in world, but what does that mean? Has a daily roll over of 6.6 trillion dollars. It means that the broker can always find "the other side" very easily and quickly. This is good if you want to enter a trade immediately and great if you wan to get out of a trade very quickly.
Best thing about Forex is:
Markets which are not liquid, or have low trading volume, can be difficult to trade. Imagine you were in a losing trade and you wanted to get out of it. If the broker can't find "the other side" then you are stuck! That will not happen when trading FX. There is always someone on the other side- a major benefit.
Forex exchange is essentially for international business. Forex markets include governments, businesses & investors. Forex, also known as foreign exchange or FX trading, is the conversion of one currency into another. It is one of the most actively traded markets in the world, with an average daily trading volume of $6.6 trillion. Forex, or foreign exchange, can be explained as a network of buyers and sellers, who transfer currency between each other at an agreed price. It is the means by which individuals, companies and central banks convert one currency into another – if you have ever travelled abroad, then it is likely you have made a forex transaction. While a lot of foreign exchange is done for practical purposes, vast majority of currency conversion is undertaken with the aim of earning a profit. The amount of currency converted every day can make price movements of some currencies extremely volatile. It is this volatility that can make forex so attractive to traders: bringing about a greater chance of high profits, while also increasing the risk.
Unlike shares or commodities, forex trading does not take place on exchanges but directly between two parties, in an over-the-counter (OTC) market. The forex market is run by a global network of banks, spread across four major forex trading centers in different time zones: London, New York, Sydney and Tokyo. Because there is no central location, you can trade forex 24 hours a day. Most traders speculating on forex prices will not plan to take delivery of the currency itself; instead they make exchange rate predictions to take advantage of price movements in the market.
What moves Forex markets?
The forex market is made up of currencies from all over the world, which can make exchange rate predictions difficult as there are many factors that could contribute to price movements. However, like most financial markets, forex is primarily driven by the forces of supply and demand, and it is important to gain an understanding of the influences that drives price fluctuations here. Central banks, News reports, Market sentiment, Economic data, Credit ratings.
FREE 12 WEEKS INTENSIVE TRADING PROGRAM 📚
Hey traders,
For those who just started to trade, I suggest a 12 weeks intensive training program. Each week will be dedicated to a specific topic. Starting from the basics you will gradually mature and by the end of the intensive you will have a complete trading strategy.
✔️Week 1 - Practice market trend identification
Learn to identify the direction of the trend. Master the recognition of a bullish trend, bearish trend and sideways market.
✔️Week 2 - Practice support and resistance.
Learn to identify key levels. Master support & resistance recognition.
✔️Week 3 - Learn candlestick pattern.
Study classic candlestick formations and practice their recognition.
✔️Week 4 - Learn price action patterns.
Study classic price action patterns: trend-following patterns, reversal patterns and consolidation pattern and learn to recognize them.
By the end of the first month, you will mature the basics of candlestick chart analysis.
✔️Week 5 - Practice supply and demand zones.
Learn to identify supply and demand zones. Learn to combine candlestick analysis with support and resistance to identify the potential reversal zones.
✔️Week 6 - Practice multiple time frame analysis.
Master top-down analysis. Learn to apply all the techniques studied previously on multiple time frames.
✔️Week 7 - Learn different entry strategies.
With all the knowledge being obtained, you can practice different entry techniques. You can try trading candlesticks patterns or price action patterns, or simply key levels. Search what works for you.
✔️Week 8 - Learn risk management.
Of course, entry strategies are not enough for profitable trading. Learn how to set stop loss and how to manage your risks properly.
By the end of the second month, you will have a foundation for a strategy building.
✔️Week 9 - Practice trade management.
Knowing how to enter the trade and how to manage the risks, the next step is to learn how to manage the active position (stop loss trailing, position protection, manual closing, etc.)
✔️Week 10 - Create a trading plan.
Combine all the knowledge that you gained in a structured trading plan.
✔️Week 11 - Follow the strategy.
Be disciplined and follow your rules. Test them and learn to be consistent.
✔️Week 12 - Review your plan.
Following your strategy, you will inevitably find its flaws. Learn to constantly improve it.
By the end of the third month, you will have a complete rule-based trading strategy. Of course, that won't be a perfect strategy, but you will have broad knowledge in technical analysis.
The next 3 months alone should be sacrificed on polishing and improvement of your trading plan.
Try this intensive, traders. I strongly believe that you will see a dramatic improvement in your trading upon its completion.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
10 things to remember about bear markets, volatility, and panicTrading & investing is not easy. If it were, everyone would be rich.
One of the most difficult moments for all traders, and especially investors, is when markets are abnormally bearish, trending downward or in a direction that goes against their positions. Adding to that difficulty is when volatility is rising and when uncertainty is high. These events have occurred throughout market history and should be expected. Every trader or investor should remember a simple truth: markets will go against you at some point. Be prepared.
Learning to trade or invest in bearish and volatile markets requires great skill, experience, and composure. The last 12 months has demonstrated that. Stocks, bonds, forex, crypto, and futures have seen heightened volatility over the last 12 months. So what should we do? What now?
Let's revisit the basics - the skills, traits, and mindset that are required to survive these moments.
1. Plan ahead 🗺
Plan your trade, trade your plan. Every trade, every investment, should have an underlying plan. Write out the basic questions before you buy or sell. For example, what is your desired entry price? What is your desired exit price? What is your stop loss? How much money are you risking? Why are you making this trade or investment in the first place? In times of volatility, these questions matter more than ever. Get back to the basics.
2. Don't rush 🧘♂️
Volatility, and especially market panic, cause people to make quick reactions. The pressure, the fast price action, often forces people to act without a moment to revisit their original plan. Don't do this! Take your time. Stay composed and deal with the hand you have been dealt.
3. Be patient with entries 🎯
Many traders & investors speak of buying dips, but this phrase does explain the steps required. You don't buy dips without a plan. You plan out your strategy, you wait for the perfect entry, and you let the market come to you. When the market is in a downtrend, and volatility is high, it is paramount that you remain patient, waiting for the perfect entry. Use limit orders wisely.
4. Know your timeframe ⏰
Are you trading for one day? One month? Or 5 years? These basic questions will remind you of what you're trying to accomplish and how rushed or patient you should really be. They will also remind you about the chart you should be looking at, whether you should be zoomed in to a 30-minute chart or zoomed out to a weekly chart, showing years of price histort.
5. Have an exit strategy 🚨
An exit strategy means that no matter what happens, you know where your stop loss is and you know where your profit target is. No matter what happens, up or down or sideways, you have an exit plan. Do not leave any entry or exit up to chance. Create your exit strategy before you place the trade and follow it.
6. Tighten position size 💪
Added volatility and uncertainty needs to be factored into your game plan before it begins in the first place. However, many new investors and traders forget to do this. If that's you, it's time to adjust your strategy, your plan, for larger trading ranges, volatility. The year-long trends that defined a previous market are now less valid.
7. Zoom out for historical context 🔎
Zoom out on your charts. Then keep zooming out. And now zoom out some more. Circle the latest candle, line or price movement and let it serve as a reminder about where price is today vs. where it came from. There's a saying: when in doubt, zoom out. Do not to get lost in the moment, looking only at the day or week, but instead go research the entire history of price. Learn about what has happened in the past.
8. Cash is a position 💸
Want to dollar cost average into a trade? Want to buy more? Want to trade more? You need cash to do that. There is comfort in being able to participate in the volatility whenever you want. Cash is a position and guarantees this.
9. Avoid panic, FUD, and FOMO 😳
When emotions are running high, some of the biggest psychological mistakes can occur. FUD stands for fear, uncertainty, and doom. FOMO stands for fear of missing out. These are two common emotions in crashing markets. On one hand, everyone thinks the end is near and then on the other hand every little up move is the next bull run. Do not let these emotions take you.
10. Take a break 😀
Sometimes it helps to step away. Log out, close your apps, get outside and get some exercise. Come back to the markets when you're ready. Your mind will also be well rested now.
We hope you enjoyed this post and we hope it helps you as you navigate the markets.
Please feel free to write any additional tips or pieces of advice in the comments section below!
🌱Weekly quote: We know what we're doing wrong🌱🟢For many of us, our trading accounts are our cluttered homes. What we desperately need is to find our inner quiet; review our trades and trading statistics in detail and truly experience the horror of betraying our potential; and fully appreciate what we do well and embrace it with gratitude. Out of that energized awareness, we can replace the clutter with what is meaningful.
Our great enemy is routine. Many times, we know what we're doing wrong, but we keep making the same mistakes. Indeed, that is the way of life's curriculum. If we fail to learn from the first lesson, we get a second and a third and a fourth: one painful opportunity after another to commit to a different path. Is that failure, or is that something to be grateful for: a curriculum that is trying, trying, trying to teach us the lessons we need to learn to be successful?
🟢We've seen that gratitude is an essential component of psychological well-being. The grateful trader is not self-focused, absorbed in how much money they could/should make. The grateful trader is thankful for the opportunities coming their way. When we look heavenward with thanks for what we've accomplished, there is an essential humility to our perspective. It's not just about us. It's not just about profits and losses.
A great metric in evaluating your trading journal is to count the number of frustrated statements versus the number of grateful ones. A great metric in evaluating other traders is to count the number of self-aggrandizing statements with the number of humble, grateful ones.
🟢If losses are opportunities to learn and improve, we can sustain a grateful mindset even in times of adversity. A humble mindset is one looking to learn. A grateful mindset appreciates every opportunity to grow.
A life perspective that instills and strengthens humility grounds us in the awareness that there is always something more important than me. There is always something more significant than what is simply happening here and now. We cannot succeed in trading--or any life endeavor--if it becomes our end-all and be-all. Once trading and P/L are placed on a pedestal, they control us and our experience. And that is precisely what interferes with profitability!
It's great to correct your mistakes, but it's in your shining successes that you can find your path to fulfillment--and your future in markets. Hidden in your winning trades may be the key to your development as a trader.
🟢 So many developing traders look for one edge after another, one market after another, one trading style after another--all in a frantic search for success. The reality is that our best trading is hiding in plain sight, when we explore what we're trading and how we're trading it when we're most fulfilled and successful.
Brett Steenbarger, Trading Psychology
What is an ETF? (exchange traded fund)
An exchange traded fund (ETF) is an investment fund that invests in a basket of stocks, bonds, or other assets. ETFs are traded on a stock exchange, just like stocks. Investors are drawn to ETFs because of their low price, tax efficiency and ease of trading.
ETFs seek to provide the performance of a specified index, such as the S&P 500, and typically have low fees.
Like mutual funds, ETFs offer investors diversified exposure to a portfolio of securities, such as stocks, bonds, commodities and real estate.
Why are ETFs popular?
While investors often associate ETFs with large stock indexes, such as the S&P 500, ETFs provide access to virtually every asset class, sector, region, theme and investment style.
ETFs are popular because of their low fees, tax efficiency, liquidity and transparency. Since the first ETF was launched in 1993, the ETF industry has grown substantially, with more than $3 trillion now invested in ETFs.
What are the benefits of ETFs?
ETFs cost significantly less than comparable active mutual funds — and that savings can add up over time. Other benefits include:
Access and liquidity. Because ETFs are traded on stock exchanges, they are easily bought or sold.
Transparency. Just like mutual funds, ETFs report performance quarterly and fees daily.
Diversification. ETFs provide access to a wide range of investment options, covering a broad range of asset classes, sectors and geographies. They also make it easy to select specific themes or investment styles.
What are the risks associated
with ETFs?
Like mutual funds, ETFs carry investment risk depending on their asset class, strategy and region. Some ETFs are riskier than others.
In addition, if you invest in an ETF that holds securities in a currency other than your own, movements in the foreign exchange rate may affect your returns.
The Evolution of a Trader | 3 Milestones 📈
Hey traders,
In this educational article, we will discuss 3 stages of the evolution of a trader.
Stage 1 - Unprofitable trader 😞
The unprofitable trader has very typical characteristics:
-total absence of trading skills
Most of the time, people open a live account simply after completing some beginners course like on babypips website.
Being sure that the obtained knowledge are completely enough to start trading, they quickly face the tough reality.
-no trading plan
Having just basic knowledge, of course, they do not have a trading plan. Why the hell to have it if everything is so simple?!
All their actions on the market is just gambling. They open the positions randomly most of the time, simply relying on intuition.
-poor risk management
In 99% percent of the time, the unprofitable trader does not even think about risk management. The position sizing, stop placement and target selection are completely neglected.
Trading performance of the unprofitable traders is characterized by small wins and substantial losses and negatively trending equity.
Stage 2 - Boom and bust trader 😶
Usually, traders reach boom and bust stage after 1-2 years of unprofitable trading. At some moment, winning trades start to compensate losing trades, brining non-trending equity.
Such traders have very common traits:
-not polished trading plan
Being unprofitable for so long, traders start to realize the significance of a trading plan.
Sticking to the set of rules, they notice positive changes in their trading performance.
However, trading plan requires to be polished and modified. It takes many years for a trader to identify all its drawbacks before it starts bringing net profits.
-lack of confidence
When one starts following a trading system, confidence plays a substantial role.
The fact is that even the best trading strategy in the world occasionally produces negative results. In order to not give up and keep following such a system, one needs to build trust in that.
The confidence that after a series of losing trades, the strategy will manage to recover.
Such a trust can be built after many years of trading that strategy.
Stage 3 - Profitable trader ☺️
That is the final destination.
After many years of a struggling trading, one finally sees positively-trending equity. Winning trades start to outperform losing ones, leading to consistent account growth.
Profitable trader is characterized by iron discipline, confidence and consistency.
He knows what he is trading, when and why. His trading plan is polished, he fully controls his emotions.
He never stops learning and constantly develops his strategy.
Knowing the 3 stages of the evolution of a trader, one can easily identify at what stage he currently is. That will help to identify the things to be focused on to move to the next stage.
At what stages are you at the moment?
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Bullish Butterfly PatternYes, you can scalp or day trade harmonic patterns in real live time, If you know what to look for. All harmonic patterns have their own fib retracement and/or extension ranges- which need to happen- for them to be called certain names.
When a PRZ happens, instead of just jumping on a trade, get a confirmation move out of PRZ and then reversal back to it with an engulfing, harami and/or pin bar candlestick setup to then do a trade. This will prevent you from getting into a move too early and help with risk management on the trade too.
Be Patience equals to Be Profitable- with a strategy and/or a plan.
Risk management in your priority on each trade that you do, in this Forex trading and with the high liquidity and volatility that is happening at this time with many currency's, their is no place for either fear and/or greed. Lock in profits on all winning trades. Concentrate on getting a little piece of pip pie, not getting the whole pip pie in trading.
Bullish Cypher PatternOn the AudJpy 4 hour chart example of a bullish cypher pattern. Yes, all harmonic patterns have their own Fib. Ret and extension percentages you need to look up and know, if you use harmonic patterns in your trading.
Higher timeframes of 1 hour, 4 hour and daily work the best when using harmonic patterns, but can work on smaller timeframes- just less time for you to set up trades and react to candlesticks in real live time. Always wait for all harmonic patterns to 100% complete before you make a trade in opposite direction.
Number one rule is wait for all harmonic patterns to complete before entering in any trades, related to being the safest times to get in and having the best risk reward setups with highest win percentages in trading, then to jump in too early because you are not patience, but have a need to trade rather then wait.
Risk management is always #1, control what is in your hands to do like: What pair you trade, what price you get in, what session you trade and what time you are trading a certain pair. Also, entries, exits and/or targets, stop losses, etc...
Stay healthy & get wealthy-
Note: I will be looking at 1 hour charts on AJ for bullish trades to start this coming week off- r/t the completion of the bullish cypher pattern on example chart of 4 hours- there is around 70 pips to the upside to the target area of at least 50% on the fib. retracement tool (here on TV).
✍️WEEKLY QUOTE: You don't need to know in order to make money✍️...Having an awareness or an understanding of some principle, insight, or concept doesn't necessarily equate to acceptance and belief. When something has been truly accepted, it isn't in conflict with any other component of our mental environment. When we believe in something, we operate out of that belief as a natural function of who we are, without struggle or extra effort. To whatever degree there is a conflict with any other component of our mental environment, to the same degree there is a lack of acceptance. It isn't difficult, therefore, to understand why so few people make it as traders. They simply don't do the mental work necessary to reconcile the many conflicts that exist between what they've already learned and believe, and how that learning contradicts and acts as a source of resistance to implementing the various principles of successful trading.
The answer is quite simple: The typical trader doesn't predefine his risk, cut his losses, or systematically take profits because the typical trader doesn't believe it's necessary. The only reason why he would believe it isn't necessary is that he believes he already knows what's going to happen next, based on what he perceives is happening in any given "now moment." If he already knows, then there's really no reason to adhere to these principles. Believing, assuming, or thinking that "he knows" will be the cause of virtually every trading error he has the potential to make (with the exception of those errors that are the result of not believing that he deserves the money).
If he believes that anything is possible, then there's nothing for his mind to avoid. Because anything includes everything, this belief will act as an expansive force on his perception of the market that will allow him to perceive information that might otherwise have been invisible to him.
It's the ability to believe in the unpredictability of the game at the micro level and simultaneously believe in the predictability of the game at the macro level that makes the casino and the professional gambler effective and successful at what they do
Their belief in the uniqueness of each hand prevents them from engaging in the pointless endeavor of trying to predict the outcome of each individual hand. They have learned and completely accepted the fact that they don't know what's going to happen next. More important, they don't need to know in order to make money consistently. Because they don't have to know what's going to happen next, they don't place any special significance, emotional or otherwise, on each individual hand, spin of the wheel, or roll of the dice. In other words, they're not encumbered by unrealistic expectations about what is going to happen, nor are their egos involved in a way that makes them have to be right. As a result, it's easier to stay focused on keeping the odds in their favor and executing flawlessly, which in turn makes them less susceptible to making costly mistakes.
From Trading in the Zone by M. Douglas