Get started

Risk Management

Think like a Hedge-FundImagine that you are a Hedge-Fund manager, you have a lot of money to invest. You are looking to invest in AAPL for example. Let's assume for the debate, that you as a fund manager can buy any amount of stock that is traded that day. This assumption is made because we want the Anchored VWAP to represent our position line. Anchored VWAP = is a tool that you can use that calculates the average price of volume that was traded from a certain point. In practice, since you don't have a lot of money, if you could buy 1/100M stocks each day (100M is avg volume, which means you will buy /100M), your position line will be very similar, but proportional to a private account. You decide to grow your position line when the price is after a big correction and it moved above the EMA. You go only LONG, you buy every stock that is traded (you are a Huge hedge fund manager, remember?) Path 1: You start to accumulate a position. Your position line is growing in size, but it also rises in price since you are buying stocks at a higher price. In green, you can see your position line which is also your break-even line. As you can see, the price is always above the green line, which means that you are in GREEN all the time while you are in this buying campaign. Path 2: The light blue line is where your position line will get "stuck" and will not rise if you decide to stop and not add more to your position from that point in time. Path 3: Path 3 is your position line given that you keep adding to your position even in the sideways action. You just keep buying and buying. Red line: The red line is the Anchored VWAP that will be if you want to start selling all your position. You sell every day and keep selling. This is your average selling line. Conclusion: You can see that either if you choose path 2 or 3, you will all the time be in GREEN position. If you choose to stop buying and start selling (Path 2), your average return on the position will be 32%. You entered little by little, minimum risk in the position. You have a lot of "AIR" from path 2 to where the price is currently in. This post is a continuation of the post about average-up strategy. The same line of thinking. If you like, follow and like this idea so it will be saved in your saved ideas for future reference.
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by ZoharCho
1
Mitigating High Risk Long Positions with CoveringStop losses are an, often unwelcome, but ultimately necessary and life saving tactic to day trading. When going long, setting a high stop loss can be beneficial for getting out of bad trades quickly with small losses, and opening yourself up up more opportunities for good trades. Setting a low stop loss on the other hand, can be beneficial by greatly increasing your profit. Many trades that seem bad initially end up rallying and turning profitable. Generally speaking, the lower your stop loss, the higher your percentage of good trades. The downside to a low stop loss of course is that trades take longer, locking your funds up, and what if price actually hits your super low stop loss? You've lost a super amount of money. In my trading career so far, I've preferred a low stop loss. Losing out on a good trade due to a conservative stop loss is more painful to me than the risk presented by a liberal one. But this is a high risk to accept. Losing, say, 20% of my trading capital is definitely something I want to avoid, but not at the cost of a high stop loss. So, I can hedge my position, mitigate my risk, in one of a few ways. I can open a short position when I see my long position go south. Or I can engage in Dollar Cost Averaging: I buy more as the price falls to lower my average position size and ultimately my target profit. These are good options, but come with their own side effects. Opening a short position opens you up to risks associated with a short position, i.e. price suddenly shoots up. And Dollar Cost Averaging requires additional funds to keep buying. What else can I do? Enter "Covering". From Investopedia: "To cover is to take a defensive action to lower the risk exposure of a position" The graph attached here is a demonstration of Covering (the exact spots for buying/selling were picked hastily; this example is purely conceptual and an ideal situation). The basic idea is: when price begins to fall, sell it, just like a stop loss. However, unlike a stop loss, the intention is to buy back in at a lower price when price begins to rise again. This is like dollar cost averaging, because you're, in a sense, lowering your average position size. The difference is you don't need additional funds. This is also like short selling, because you rely on the price continuing to fall, but you haven't borrowed anything in order to benefit from this fall. As you can see in the diagram, as you sell and buy back, the amount of shares/coins/whatever you can afford off your initial capital increases, thus either increasing your profit if the trade hits the profit target, or decreasing your losses if the trade hits your actual stop loss. Here's how Ive been setting up my covers: When price begins to fall, I set a conditional market sell somewhere below the nearest support. If price falls to this level, I immediately sell everything Once I've sold all my shares, I set a trailing stop loss for the cover; I generally do ~1.2%. If, after I sell, price rises 1.2%, I buy back as many shares as I can with the money I got from selling earlier. Ideally, this trailing stop falls well below where I sold. Rinse and repeat until price either hits your original take profit or your original stop loss. Some things to note. Do not buy below your original stop loss! The purpose of this strategy is to respect your original decision, not make new ones . This is meant to mitigate a high risk situation, don't expose yourself to more risk in doing so. Also, you theoretically want to buy back above your original stop loss, even if it looks like it's going to fall through. Make your own call here, but by not buying back, you've essentially just changed where your original stop loss is, and thus changed your original trade decision. Of course, nothing is without its own risks. It's quite possible that you get stopped out for a loss every time you sell, i.e. you sold, price went up, so you buy back at a higher price to stay in the trade. This will eat into your profit if the profit target is eventually hit, or simply add to your losses if the stop loss is hit. From my point of view, that risk is less painful than the risk of hitting a low stop loss without covering. You theoretically give yourself more chances of being right with these micro trades inside of your larger trade, and if you get lucky, as is the case in my diagram, you might actually profit even if your original stop loss is hit. This strategy requires attention, for sure, but if you're both strategic and lucky, you can really save yourself from the downsides of a high risk trade without adding money to the pool, or exposing yourself to short selling risk.
COINBASE:COMPUSDEducation
by tapRoot_coding
1
Risk Management (Lessons & Tips)Understanding Forex Risk Management Speculating as a trader is not gambling. The difference between gambling and speculating is risk management. In other words, with speculating, you have some kind of control over your risk, whereas with gambling you don't. Even a card game such as Poker can be played with either the mindset of a gambler or with the mindset of a speculator, usually with totally different outcomes. However, no trade should be taken without first stacking the odds in your favor, and if this is not clearly possible then no trade should be taken at all. First rule in risk management is to calculate the odds of your trade being successful. To do that, you need to grasp both fundamental and technical analysis. You will need to understand the dynamics of the market in which you are trading, and also know where the likely psychological price trigger points are, which a price chart can help you decide.Once a decision is made to take the trade then the next most important factor is in how you control or manage the risk. Remember, if you can measure the risk, you can, for the most part, manage it. Trade only during times of day of high liquidity and volume in Forex market, which is from end of Tokyo session to end of London sessions each day (around 12 hours). Risk per Trade Another aspect of risk is determined by how much trading capital you have available. Risk per trade should always be a small percentage of your total capital. A good starting percentage could be 2% of your available trading capital. So, for example, if you have $5000 in your account, the maximum loss allowable should be no more than 2%. With these parameters your maximum loss would be $100 per trade. A 2% loss per trade would mean you can be wrong 50 times in a row before you wipe out your account. This is an unlikely scenario if you have a proper system for stacking the odds in your favor. The solution to trader risk is to work on your own habits and to be honest enough to acknowledge the times when your ego gets in the way of making the right decisions or when you simply can't manage the instinctive pull of a bad habit. The best way to objectify your trading is by keeping a journal of each trade, noting the reasons for entry and exit and keeping score of how effective your system is. In other words how confident are you that your system provides a reliable method in stacking the odds in your favor and thus provide you with more profitable trade opportunities than potential losses. Conclusion Risk is inherent in every trade you take, but as long as you can measure risk you can manage it. Just don't overlook the fact that risk can be magnified by using too much leverage in respect to your trading capital as well as being magnified by a lack of liquidity in the market. With a disciplined approach and good trading habits, taking on some risk is the only way to generate good rewards.
Education
by Anbat
How To Get Out of a Good Trade? - Setting Your TPHi Traders, today's topic regarding 'How To Get Out of a Good Trade? - Setting Your TP' . Are you still struggling to set a proper profit target? Or are you still watching some of the best trades reverse against you? It can be frustrating sometimes watching some of the best runners turn into a breakeven OR losing trade. These are some of the methods I personally use to get out of a great position ( Trade Management ) 1. Technical levels (S&R zones) - This is mostly related to 'set and forget' type setup, you identify everything before hand, set your TP at key levels (broader thesis), leave it to run. But one thing when you're setting your target at key levels, you have to first understand the market condition then compare it to the current volatility. Eg. if the market is in a choppy range and you're setting your target at the all-time-high, it makes no sense (unrealistic) . - Also know that S&R are zones, so if you're setting your target at the absolute tip of the resistance, there'd be times where market just reverse against you, because mostly likely you've neglected the " zone " factor 2. Trailing Stops (Moving averages OR Prior high/ low) • Moving Averages This is great when you're looking for an extension sort of market movement, such as trading a flag/ exhaustion pattern. You're betting that the market will keep banging into your intended direction. How to trail it? You must first Identify the strength of the trend - Medium OR Weak trend (deep pullback) = 50ema to trail it - Strong trend (shallow pullback) = 18ema to trail it • Prior high/ low This is great when the market is in a strong trend, and your thesis is telling you that it MUST respect the higher highs & higher lows/ lower highs & lower lows sequence - Go down to lower timeframe such as 15m, everytime when price forms a minor level, trail your stops to that structural area - This method also helps you to keep track with the fresh momentum If you're constantly watching the market reverse against you, there few main issues are - You're having your target way too far (unrealistic TP), identify the daily ATR, then understand the probable and possible. - You're looking for an extension move in a ranging condition (market isn't going to keep ripping into one direction, there will be times where it ranges, this is when you MUST have a realistic target such as setting them at previous swing high/ low) 3. Fixed RR This is great if you're looking for a more systematic method to handle your TP & emotion at the same time - Eg 1:3RR - But by using this method, you'd somehow decrease your long-term expectancy as you're getting out of position way too soon sometimes - Yes you do eliminate some effort to figure out your TP in every setup, but you'd tend to have many ' re-entries ' too, as the frustration of getting out of a good position too early is overwhelming too. Feel free to comment below what's your worst nightmare in trading! "I know where I'm getting out before I get in." - Bruce Kovner Trade safe as usual. Do follow my profile for daily fx forecast & educational content.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDEducation
by TraderNeoh
33
Be Realistic ! there are always alternative scenariosit is vital for all traders to control their emotions. getting excited is natural for everyone but if you want to be a successful trader you have to learn how to control your feeling. we trade based on the facts not feelings!. there are always alternative scenarios and a wise trader should be prepared in advance. being aware of alternatives can help you to control your feelings and manage your trade well. one tool to manage the trade is using Multi Unit Trade Strategy which will be discussed in another separate post. Here I want to introduce some alternatives for market path when a trader enters to a trade after an ABC correction . First I should emphasize that I used BIDU chart just as an example and I do not claim that BIDU will follow what has been shown on the chart. Alternatives after a possible ABC corrections are: 1- starting a new impulse wave and making a new major high : traders hope for this scenario and enter into the trade for making noticeable profit but does it always happen? 2- what we consider a wave C is not actually what we considered and it was in fact wave 3 of a descending impulse wave. experienced traders have faced this scenario many times. I showed this possible scenario on the BIDU Chart. 3- Stock may make a flat correction. this alternative has been drawn on the chart and you can see it's internal structure. flat corrections can be very misleading. be cautious !. 4- Dobule or triple Three correction. this scenario may pose huge loses to unexperienced traders when they feel correction is over and they see market is going up but suddenly every thing will change. Also recognizing a new entry point is not so easy in this type of correction. an example of a Double Three Correction has been shown on the chart. Good Luck Friends
NASDAQ:BIDUEducation
by SaeedSajedi
4
5 Tips for Newbie Trader💯1. Two dangerous extremes On the way to making a stable income in the financial markets, newbie traders face two extremes: a) First - you can learn a lot and for a long time, but you still can't go to real trading. b) The second is to start without knowledge. Both paths lead to failure. By the way, it is the traders who have lost funds from ignorance of the principles of trading, and mainly create a negative image of the financial markets. You can't make money without knowledge! And to separate the process of gaining knowledge from practice too. Therefore, a beginner in the financial markets must both learn and practice. 2. Best instruments to trade for a newbie trader Now forex brokers provide a wide range of financial instruments within one trading platform: currency pairs, CFD contracts on stocks, futures , cryptocurrencies, commodities ( oil , gold , silver , etc.). It's easy for a beginner to get lost in this variety. In order to facilitate the choice, study separately the features of the different types of markets. 3. Trading psychology: the third pillar of successful trading An important factor to pay attention to when reading books for beginner traders is the ability to manage your own emotions. Trading is an amazing area. All your habits, behavior patterns, strengths and weaknesses of character are immediately reflected in the trading account and bring results in monetary terms. So you either earn or lose. Newbie trader, faced with a storm of emotions in the process of trading, should know: he is not alone. Most traders experience the same feelings, and those who have been making money in this area for a long time have learned to turn them to their advantage. And we are ready to share tips. 4.What a beginner trader needs to know about money management You already know that trading in financial markets is a high risk area. However, this risk is completely manageable, and if you know how to do it, you will be able to earn consistently. In addition to a profitable trading strategy, a trader needs an understandable money management system and competent risk management. The safety of your account depends on them. Here are the ingredients for a good money management system: a) Stop loss. It must be set correctly, according to the requirements of the market and your trading strategy. It will allow you to reduce your risk if your prediction turns out to be wrong or out of date. b) The ratio of risk and reward in each trading position. Usually trading strategies provide for it at a level of 1: 3 and higher. The minimum allowed ratio is 1: 2, only then the deal makes sense. c)The volume of the trade entry. Along with a stop loss, it determines how much or a percentage of your trading account you risk on each trade. d) Risk per position. Based on the mathematical expectation of a trading strategy, it is necessary to decide what percentage will be the maximum risk in each transaction. The smaller it is, the safer your trade. 5. Trading and life: how to organize your work So, you have decided to start making money through trading. Motivating pictures with a trader who sits under a palm tree with a cocktail in his hands and spends an hour a day to check how profit is dripping into his account - this is clearly not about the start of a career. At the very beginning (and eventually too) you need to have an organized working day for trading. 1) Set aside time on weekdays that you will devote to trading. 2) Do not combine it with other activities: dinner, watching TV series, spending an evening with your family, etc. Trading requires extreme concentration. 3) If you are a beginner, take the study plan presented in this article, allocate the stages in time and systematically, without scattering, move along it to your first profit. 4) Before you start trading, do a market analysis every day. ___________________________________________________ P.S. Can you add more, wolves?🔥
HITBTC:CRDTUSDEducation
by Berzerk_invest
9
The Importance of a Trading Plan - How To Create One?Hi Traders. Today's topic is regarding 'How To Create a Trading Plan?'. Throughout my personal trading career, trading plan is often neglected by majority of novice Traders. A trading plan shouldn't be something complicated and heavy, simplicity is the key. Set realistic objectives and checklists that you are able to stick to it strictly on a daily basis. These are some of the important elements should be included 1. Instruments Know which instruments you are trying to focus on. In your earlier phase, focus on one instrument, really dig into it, put in the work to master the craft. 'Diversification may preserves wealth, but concentration builds wealth.' - Warren Buffett 2. Timeframe Multiple timeframe / Top-Down analysis is vital, it allows you to identify the long-term trend & short-term sentiment. But avoid distracting yourself with too many timeframes OR irrelevant timeframes. I'd always suggest to not look at more than 3 timeframes. A. Entry timeframe: Identify a timeframe that you'd find your entry triggers and place your trade, such as 5-30m charts (Lower timeframe) B. Analyzing timeframe: Identify two higher timeframes that'd allow you to view the bigger picture better, such as 1h - 4h charts (Higher timeframe) Eg. If you are a scalper, it is pointless for you to analyze the weekly chart. Eg. If you are a swing trader, looking at the 5m chart could be too intensive for your brain. 3. Risk Management This is the most important aspect that'd determine your long-term profitability. A. Risk per trade: Percentage-based risk is the most common method to manage your risk, such as 1-2% risk per trade. B. Maximum daily & weekly drawdown: Identify what's the worst scenario you'd allow yourself to sink into. There will be times where you are trading on tilt, things just get worse. This is when your maximum drawdown comes into play, pulling yourself out of the emotional vortex , prevent yourself from those irrational behaviour. 4. Personal Strengths & Weaknesses Explore your personality. Trading is about knowing your strengths & weaknesses, then leverage them into your advantage. There's no way you can completely eliminate emotion in trading, we're all human. But what's more important is to organize your mind to control its performance. A. Aggressive: If you're an aggressive trader, focus more on a trending condition, you should probably avoid the sideway condition (over-trade/ revenge trade tendency) B. Conservative: If you're an overly conservative trader (fear & hesitation elements), you should probably reduce down your checklist and simplify your trading system. 5. Strategies/ System This relates to your personal strengths & weaknesses too. Develop strategies/ system that suit your personality the most, then keep improving it. Identify which market condition you're the best at (Trend/ Range/ Channel), then develop successful strategies to capitalize on these market states. 6. Routine/ Action Plan Successful Traders tend to find trading to be a 'boring' process, they simply scan through charts, identify setups that fits into their criteria. Have a set of routine, simplify them and stick to them everyday even if you feel lazy. Eg. Spend 1h per day to analyze the market before you jump onto any trades Eg. Journal your trades every night Eg. Spend 1h per day to review & reflect your progress If you still don't have a Trading Plan, take action and create one now! 'Success comes from consistency, not what you do occasionally.' - Neoh Trade safe as usual, keep your risk managed. Do follow my profile for daily fx forecast & educational content.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDEducation
by TraderNeoh
6
How to identify a correction for the next impulse move ? How to identify if a correction is finished/completed and ready for the next impulse move ? Hello everyone: In this educational video I will go over how to properly identify a correction in price action analysis. I recently made a price action workshop live stream video that went over everything on impulse - correction, structures/patterns, continuation and reversal corrections, but I still get a lot of questions on identifying corrections itself. How to draw, use the trendlines to identify a correction, and how to understand they are going to complete/finish. In my opinion this is the most important part in technical analysis. We need to understand that the market moves in phrases, it can only be in the impulsive phrase or corrective phrase. The key to trading is to understand when a correction finishes, we are going to get the impulsive phrase which will give us traders a better edge in the market to enter, where the momentum is strong. I have made many educational posts on price action analysis, specifically on continuation or reversal correction, which I will put the links below. Any questions, comments, or feedback welcome to let me know. Thank you Jojo Price Action Workshop www.tradingview.com Impulse VS Correction Continuation and Reversal Correction Multi-time frame analysis Continuation Bull/Bear Flag Reversal Ascending/Descending Channel Reversal Double Top/Bottom Reversal Head & Shoulder Pattern Reversal “M” and “W” style pattern Reversal Impulse Price Action Expanding Structure/Pattern
BINANCE:BNBUSDEducation
by jojofang0901
62
Daily Strategy (50 pips risk/100 pips reward) As in all strategies, please back test for yourself. This strategy will give you around one setup on daily charts per week around. You should look at several pairs for ones which daily candles are showing a two or three day Harami, Engulfing or Pin bar set up (which are high reversal patterns). Noted on this daily chart of GbpUsd chart are four trades, which three are sells and one is a buy trade. These trades would be entered on close of session (after the 1st hour of new session: why? because 1st hour of new session has very high spreads- so wait for this one hour candle to close to enter your daily bias). Risk Reward on daily would always be 50 pips stop and 100 pip target or 1:2 RR 1) These trades might last for one to three days around- so extra charges could incurred. 2) Wait for either a two or three day harami, engulfing or pin bar candlestick pattern( yes harami and engulfing candle can be more then two with blended candlesticks< please you tube if needed) to happen, then enter after 1st hour of new session with a 50 pip stop and 100 target. Trade your plan and use right risk management,especially related to using a 50 pip stop loss. Maybe, use lower lot sizes then normal standard lot size unless that is part of your plan. Purple vertical lines are alert candles, before entry candle happens Red arrow means sell trade and Green arrow means buy trade These trades can last from one to three days, so mostly not for scalping or day trading- but swing trading. Good Luck and Good Trading.
Education
by Anbat
How to stick to your trading plan / not close early trades.Once you have your strategy on how to grow your account, risk managment and your watchlist. The only problem is a traders psychology. You could have problems with closing early trades in loss/profit becase you are scared it might go south. To answer this, you have to change your mindset. Once you have done the analysis on the chart and you make that trade with the take profit and stop loss, just dont look at how much you are earning/losing. Focus on the chart and what is happeing. You didn't make the trade on numbers from your account but on candles on the chart. Make yourself think that you cant close the trade until it hits that stop loss or take profit. You WILL take loses, most day traders don't make it profitable. If you had the confidence to make that trade KEEP the confidence during your trade. If you don't belive in your own trades and that you can make it as a trader, why would anyone else? Profesional traders take loses too. No strategy works 100% of the time.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by fxAljtaric
Drawing Support and Resistance Using Multiple Time FramesHi all, Here is a quick tutorial on how I draw support and resistance lines. A few things to keep in mind are use multiple time frames to get a more comprehensive understanding of trend and to determine which lines are more significant than others. Also, by using these lines you can set more accurate limit orders and save money by not having to pay extra fees for market orders. It is important to NOT enter long positions as we near areas of strong resistance. We should be taking profits at those levels and entering longs when approaching lines of support. Additionally, this allows you to set a tighter stop loss because if the line of support is rejected then it invalidates the idea that the asset is increasing in value. Of course, you need to use indicators and do a more comprehensive analysis but this should be a helpful tool to help you manage risk. I plan to make more of these videos laying out trend lines, dynamic lines of support and resistance, fibonacci retracements and spiderlines etc. If there is anything you want me to provide a tutorial on please leave a comment and I will get around to it as time permits. Best, Brad
BINANCE:LINKUSDEducation
by Brad_Perkins
2
10 ways to speed up the process & improve our bottom line1- Get good: make sure you spot patterns and avoid mistakes by practicing First of all obviously, and I did not find this in the "how to improve performance lists" I looked at on the internet, obviously you want to avoid mistakes as much as possible and also we want to make sure we never miss out. So every single day checking the news and/or charts and any other source we may find helpful. And then also regularly going through past trades, taken or backtested, going through the whole process, and even using tradingview replay button on past price action to train our recognition skills, learn to not fomo in, and more. The first 5 years are the hardest they say, and then the price action pops out more easily.  2- Get good: keep reading and learning I'm sure many if not most ideas & strategies see their first spark when we just spend time reading about markets and looking at charts without specifically looking for a strategy, it just comes naturally we spot patterns with time. So keep spending time taking an interest in everything, when you get a little light appear over your head go check if it has any value if a strat can be derived out of it, and this all should just happen by itself over time.  3- Trade lower timeframes, higher timeframes You could get into statistical arbitrage, crypto arbitrage and market making, or any other short term activity. The barrier to entry is here, the skill floor is not down to zero, so there is a large investment to make just to get started. If you are currently hardstuck, it might be interesting, probably not very, from what I have seen most of the money is made using expensive technology and day trader data to take money from the usual retail victims (100% of day traders are "retail" traders). But if there is a bone with a bit of meat left and it's not too much effort for the reward, even getting an extra 2-3% a year might be worth it. Another solution, more intelligent but less attractive to the average "retail" beginner is to look at higher timeframes. One could have no short term activity on a currency that is very choppy and very slow but take a long term position and get a little bit of extra profit. Also with aiming for long term when possible we can get more out of the market, bigger winners (more "pips") = more profit, and spreads become insignificant.  4- Build another business It can take the focus away, the smart entrepreneur will avoid getting too ambitious and beign a jack of all trades master of none, if one is hopelessly stuck at a ceiling they can't breakout of it could be a good idea to stop forcing and look somewhere else, the ceiling might be easier to break later on. A business can add more stable cash inflow, reduce risk and net worth or income volatility, and keep us from tearing our hair out when we aren't getting the amount of setups we want in the markets.  5- Increase position size Go big like Bill Hwang, then blow up like Bill Hwang. This guy over the years (15 years I think) made more than 60% a year return without much people knowing about it as he was running a family office, he grew in 8 years if my source is correct 200 million into 10 billions. At first he tried to speed up the process by cheating, he got caught up in several insider trading scandals so then he tried something else which was leverage. And blew up. His positions being so big makes it even worse, and being concentrated, such a whale exiting crashes these stocks completely. Even the big company Baidu lost 50% of its market cap. Us plebes don't even come close. Even a "large" 1 million dollar account is 1/10,000 th of his 10 billion. I am not encouraging anyone to be a degen gambler I'm saying someone that lives in the west and has been profitable might think "I am willing to risk these 5000 euros", such an account can be built back even by simply working at mcdonalds for a while. The gambling type that risks everything is not the type that ever manages to be profitable. Still, while small we might want to take on a bit more risk, a reasonable amount, to hopefully speed up the process a bit. But this is not the only tool and used after all the other stuff improving etc. So here's perhaps an idea to be looked at. Several companies share prices dropped massively, that's not some legit regular price discovery, the price was destroyed because of a whale causing a fire sale. The term "oversold" could maybe be applied here. Where are all the retail gamblers? Aren't they buying this time? They always chase crashes. Scared? Or maybe too small, or maybe they sold already when the price slightly bounced and they were up 1% LOL!  6- Improve a strategy RR & WR OR allow for a lower PF but get more signals Once you have a working strategy you still improve as an investor but the strategy itself should not be getting optimised all the time or something is wrong. Until we get it right we keep backtesting and working out the contours and details of our strategy, we insist on it to trade it correctly like improving a skill, then once this is done we look for something else and just run it making sure to still give it some time.  7- Add another strategy An obvious way to get more setups hence more profits is to get a new strategy, but this is done only when the previous one(s) is mastered. You can expect this to take 3 months to a couple of years. And it can interfere with your focus of the other one, it can also be somewhat correlated so have to watch out for that. It is a big project. Does not mean we can't always be on the lookout for new strategies and new knowledge, just don't always try trading new strategies, just put the "potential" ones in a corner of your head (and excel DB) and progressively come back to it until at some point after months or years you gathered enough info and really get into it all in. There are several strategies, for stocks in particular I have been looking at, for example I have been posting here and there on this site about the "dead stock bounce" thing but I never traded it, maybe one day I'll start doing so. For now I still have a whole lot to learn about Forex plus a couple of commodities. The easier way to avoid correlations and other troubles is to have a strong trend following strategy, and then another one for other scenarios. And of course when you end up taking a trend following buy on a currency make sure your other strategy buy is not on a correlated one...  8- Trade more assets More uncorrelated assets, if they do not hurt performance = more cashing 🤑🤑🤑! Especially when not much is moving with Forex, just going back and forth, and here you have the S&P 5000 that broke 4000 without hesitation after whales got liquidated and banks had to take the hit, it even gapped up, a bit early to cry victory and stonks time horizons are not the same as Forex ones, but for now it is STRONG and it sure got my attention. Been buying since September/October but been more eager recently. Not a simple snap of fingers and here we go, adding instruments to our activity is a big project, just like a business that sells printers to China starting to produce protection for cellphones for Taïwan or whatever. People think abstract = easy. I'm laughing since it is the opposite. The more intellectual something is, the more difficulty gets ignored, "let's just use a magic wand to make covid disappear" ye good luck with that, what a mentality. Next let's ask devs to code 10 thousand lines a day like it's physical labor and let's ask a scientist picked at random to find the cure for cancer it's easy very little manual labor. There is such a lack of respect for mental activities, it's beyond.  9- Push these winners to the limit S&P again. I've said a while ago I wanted to get really aggressive with the S&P 500 and Bitcoin, I just contained myself 1-2 hours ago to not buy more S&P because I am already ***** deep at that point. This is not the same as being the typical dumb money and greedy pigs that gamble and get wiped out and never are heard form again. If you have this urge to go on the offensive real hard, but within reason as a skilled trader, you can improve your performance. Just don't go all Bill Hwang. Ah if he went aggressive but was 40/40/20 in stocks/forex & cme futures/safe holdings and a bit less concentrated (or in larger cap stuff) he'd be alive now. Humans evolved to "survive against all odds", agility intelligence and social structures helped. "Never give up and survive against all odds" this is not what the markets reward. Markets rewards ambush predators. Get your example from the cheetah, these superfast cats are like bullets. They patiently watch their preys, as we should. Then they run. And 90% or more of the time the prey gets away. The cheetah could easily catch it but is it worth it? NO. A cheetah will not take a diminished risk reward, it will "give up" all the time, "oh noes" says the slow human meatbag, "never give up". Well the cats that survive, that's who. Capitalism 101. The longer they chase, the more calories they spend. Costs go up. Risk also goes up, as they get tired they become more vulnerable AND these seconds they spend chasing they are not paying attention to anything else. So they become less likely to escape or fight off danger, while being much less alert of danger for a long while. The risks are not worth it, and the costs either. Even while being patient and carefully choosing their prey and the moment they go in, 9 out of 10 get away. So they might lose let's say 200 kcalories each time. But now is the good part, once they get one secured, they don't just take a quick bite and run away like all these bagholding profit snatching retail traders. They are destroying that prey. 30,000 calories at once. One big meal. They eat everything. Winrate 5-10% reward/risk 150. Now that's a good trader that extracts all he can from his winners. 10- You can't so learn to be patient RIP. We can always keep improving and doing more and the sky is the limit, but no matter what we do we have to accept that we are going to have to be patient and no one just goes from poor to super rich overnight. It's so hard, but there is no choice. Got to be patient. We are not the FED or the ECB we do not own a money printer.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by MrRenev
2
Jalapablo's 10 Golden GuidelinesThese are some of the golden guidelines I live by when I swing trade. They've done me well over the years, they've kept me safe, and they've made me a ton of money. I wanted to share them, especially with new crypto traders just getting started. I had to figure all this stuff out on my own (and it cost me a lot of money). I believe every trader should come up with a set of his/her own personal rules like this and keep it in their trading journal. Wishing safe trading and prosperity to all! NOTE: I am not a financial advisor. Join me and trade my charts at your own risk. *If you have strong hands, patience, and like big wins and big money, follow me. I track all the USD & USDT-paired cryptocurrencies on Coinbase Pro, Kraken, Gemini, Binance, Kucoin, along with many other coins & tokens on various exchanges, and regularly seek out the most profitable swing trades available. All my charts are clean, straightforward, and easy to follow. My TA is based on Wyckoff phase analysis, Elliott wave count & Fibonacci extensions. If some of my sell zones seem conservative, it's only because I believe in exiting while still holding the fat money bags! The more intrepid traders can let the winners run a bit longer. Good luck and safe trading to all! **Unfortunately, I can not give custom entry and exit prices, stop-loss percentages, or offer advice on when and how to take profit other than my own entries and targets which are already on the charts. Thank you for understanding. Trade wins for March 2021 (Total Gains: 527.58%) 1. Filecoin: 31.92% in 14 days 2. Kyber Network: 12.09% in 7 days 3. Loom Network: 66% in 10 days 4. Ravencoin: 78.55% in 11 days 5. NMR: 19% in 2 days 6. Elastos: 178% in 15 days 7. Qtum: 66.84% in 24 days 8. Filecoin: 24% in 5 days 9. AION: 22.83% in 2 days 10. Flamingo: 28.35% in 1 Day Trade wins for April 2021 1. Kyber Network: 35.91% in 10 Days
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by jalapablo
9
Risk Management: Entry in the impulsive phrase of price action Hello everyone: Welcome back to another video on risk management. Today I want to discuss a few possible entries that we can do in the market when we spot the next impulsive phrase of the market condition. I will break down the 3 types of entries that I always look for when I am about to execute a trade. Sometimes we will see all 3 entries present themselves, and sometimes we might only see 1 or 2. So let's dig into these entries. All entries are based on the continuation or reversal structure on the LTF mostly. So I need to see a LTF correction forming and potentially completing before setting any of these entries. In addition, they have to be aligned with the HTF overall direction and bias. Multi-time frame analysis is key. All my entries are stop entry order, meaning the market needs to hit a certain price before getting triggered. Buy Stop or Sell Stop order. You may see variations of these entries in different strategies or styles, but here are my take on them and my way of using them in my trading. Let me give a few examples of each on different markets and pairs to show the potential move and possible entry criteria. Below are same other Risk Management you should know in trading. Risk Management 101 Risk Management: How to set a Take Profit (TP) for your trades Risk Management: How to Enter and set SL and TP for an impulse move in the market Risk Management: How to scale in the impulsive phrase of the market condition? Risk Management: Combine everything you learn to prevent blowing a trading account Impulse VS Correction Continuation and Reversal Correction Multi-time frame analysis
OANDA:XAGUSDEducation
by jojofang0901
24
Forex Trading Secret's - may be 5 min reading Change your life If You Really Want To Know The Secret Of Trading Forex Successfully Then Here It Is : There Are No Secrets There Are Skills Which You Have To Master Jut Like In Any Other Profession . If You Ask Any Professional Trader. He Or She Will Tell You That Forex Trading s A business . To Make a Business Profitable You Need Good Business Plan And a Range Of Skills To Execute The Business Plan HOW TO BECOME A SUCCESSFUL FOREX TRADER ------------ To Become a Successful forex trader is very simple but it is far from easy . first you must choose a trading strategy that works well for you and suits your personality . you must develop a formal trading plan which should include position size , entry , exit , stop loss and profit taking rules , before trading n a live account , practice your strategy according to your plan on a demo account for few weeks once you are comfortable with the strategy , trade according and repeat it over and over again , the key word here is discipline, you have to become a disciplined forex trader to trade and profit from the market consistently THINGS TO DO ------------- Always trade with the trend always calculate your risk reward ratio before entering a trade and try to maximize reward trade only when the markets are highly liquid , which is most of the time in the fx market always use a stop loss let your profit run set and keep to a maximum daily loss amount , after which you must stop trading for the day Never Quit , and learn from your mistakes to continually improve THING'S NOT TO DO -------------- Don't trade beyond your risk profile and comfort zone Don't Hesitate yo initiate and exit your positions Don't Over trade ( too many or too large of trade's ) Don't Move your stop loss Don't let your emotions cause you to deviate from your trading plan Don't try to get revenge from the market when in a losing position Don't trade when you are not feeling well or cannot concentrate THE 7 BIGGEST TRADING MISTAKES YOU CAN AVOID ------------------------ Not learning and educating oneself about the forex market ad trading Not Having adequate capital to begin trading Not treating forex trading as a business Not trading according to a trading plan or not having a trading plan at all Trying to teach the market a lesson when in a losing position Trying to become rich iin one day or a short period of time Starting to gamble when feeling low or bored
TVC:GOLDEducation
by GoldenEngine
5
Trading Plan that will help you become consistently profitableIn my trading career beyond having a strategy (actually multiple depending on market state and asset class) to base my trades on nothing has ever been as important as having a Trading plan. In this post I want to share with you my personal trading plan to help you create a set of rules that will help you stick to your plan and keep your emotions in check so that you can actually follow your trading strategy and become a consistently profitable trader. Something that was and still is key for me is the following realization: Never get attached to your opinion or view of why something should happen. The market is in fact always right and based on nothing but irrationality since its made by humans so the movements of the market do not have to make sense and at more times then not will not make sense. Trading is simply a mind game. Markets are a result of mass psychology which leads to exploitable edges. Mastering your own psychology is key to keep following the strategy that defines your edge. So now without further ado my trading plan template that has helped me so much over the years and I hope will help you as well: **General Rules** 1. Never enter a trade without a plan (TP,SL) 2. Once you are in a trade stick to the plan 3. Its ok to be wrong its not about being right its about making money 4. Be patient do not act on FOMO 5. Do not chase the market 6. Let your winners run and cut your losses short **The 5 fundamental truths** 1. Anything can happen. 2. You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money. 3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. 4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another. 5. Every moment in the market is unique. **Rules of consistency**I AM A CONSISTENT WINNER BECAUSE: 1. I objectively identify my edges. 2. I have predefined risk of every trade. 3. I completely accept risk or I am willing to let go of the trade. 4. I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation. 5. I pay myself as the market makes money available to me. 6. I continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors. 7. I understand the absolute necessity of these principles of consistent success and, therefore, I never violate them. **Risk and Money Management** Do not increase the standard trade size before you doubled the account. 1. The maximum amount you are allowed to lose in a day is $XXX.  2. The maximum amount you are allowed to lose on any single trade is $XXX.  3. The maximum number of losing trades in a row you are allowed to have in a day before you stop trading is three.  4. The maximum number of losing trades you are allowed to have in a day before you stop trading is five. (You may have had a win or two between losses, but there is a time to stop trading.) The maximum number of losing trades in the same direction you are allowed to take in a day before you stop trading is three.  1. If you are up $XXX on a single trade, you will put a profit floor of $XXX underneath the current price to protect a portion of those profits.  2. If you are up $XXX on a single trade, you will take the money and close out the trade.  3. If you are up $XXX for the day, you will take the rest of the day off, stay away from the trading screens, and do something you enjoy doing—other than trading !4. If you are up $XXX for the month, you will put a profit floor of $XXX underneath the month's profits to protect a portion of those profits. If you are up $XXX for the month, you will take the rest of the month off, stay away from the trading screens, and do something you enjoy doing—other than trading! Take a vacation, sleep late and read books, or do something else fun.
Education
by TradingPit
3
Does news events affect price action analysis in trading ?Hello everyone: Today I want to discuss news events in trading. Often when a news event comes out in the market, we get some sort of volatility and we get a strong spike/impulse. However, does news events affect our ways of understanding price action analysis ? Let's take a look at a few examples of the recent FOMC volatility that happened in the forex, indices and commodity market. Most of the market had a sharp quick move to one direction, hinting a sign of weakness in USD/JPY..etc. However, all of them ended up with a reversal impulse, and recovered all the price from the volatility. So, what can we take away from this ? News certain creates volatility, but not the overall price action trending direction. We may get a temporary short term move, but eventually the market recovers it, and resumes its original direction. Often beginner/newcomer traders will try to “jump” onto the news momentum, but usually end too late, and they will take a BE or losses. We can not control the outcome of the news or whether the news will be positive or negative towards our trades, but what we can control is our entry, SL, TP, risk management, emotions and mindset. Any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know :) Thank you Jojo
Education
by jojofang0901
18
Expanding Structures/Patterns in Price Action AnalysisHello everyone: Welcome back to another price action structures/pattern educational video. Today I want to discuss the expanding structure that I always see in the market. These structures/patterns are a bit more advanced, as they are not so clear on whether it's a continuation or a reversal correction. Lets dig into some typical forms that I always see in the market, and discuss the possible opportunities we can get from them. Expanding structure can come in all sorts of sizes and shapes. They are not the typical channel, flag, pennant/triangle, Head and Shoulder that we usually encounter. The key here is to identify them and observe if we are going to get trend continuations, or trend reversal after the correction finished. Any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know below. I will include all other types of price action structures/corrections that I have discussed in the past below, for everyone’s references. Thank you Jojo Impulse VS Correction Continuation and Reversal Correction Multi-time frame analysis Continuation Bull/Bear Flag Reversal Ascending/Descending Channel Reversal Double Top/Bottom Reversal Head & Shoulder Pattern Reversal “M” and “W” style pattern Reversal Impulse Price Action
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by jojofang0901
41
Trading Full-Time As a Career - What You MUST Know?Hi Traders, apologize for the recent delay in educational content publishing due to my schedule. Today's topic is regarding " Trading as a full-time career ". I believe if you're here reading this, most likely you're either a full-time trader or someone who's looking to pursue your passion as a full-time trader. Let's talk about what are some of the considerations and mindset that you must possess prior stepping into this milestone. Consistency • Do you have a trading plan that has been tested and worked profitably for a long period of time? • Emotional detachment is the key trait I find in all successful traders. Always be a student of the market, admit your mistakes, have less opinion in the market, and draw yourself out of the negative emotions. • Do you have a consistent plan of action? Do you have some back-tested strategies that has been proven with a positive expectancy in the long-term? • Are you a consistently profitable trader yet? If you're still juggling around maybe it's not the best time yet to consider trading full-time. • Do you know your numbers? What's your maximum drawdown period? What's your average return? Mentality (Are you prepared?) • Trading full-time requires an undivided passion and attention, take it as a business not an interest nor hobby. • Money comes and goes fast in trading. If you're not being humble, its just the matter of time where the market humbles you. • You must understand what brings you to this stage. It is the amount of relentless effort behind the scene. Avoid being outcome-oriented and set unrealistic monetary goals (eg. I want to make $ XX amount per month). • Trading isn't a 9-5 job, understand that there will be drawdown periods where you lose money or breakeven. Avoid seeing them as setbacks or obstacles, take them as lessons to improve yourself instead. Trading is all about emotional discipline and having an edge in the market. Back-up plan • Never ever put a large portion of your savings into your trading capital, understand that anything could happen. Set aside a minimum of one year of living expenses, invest the remaining. • You MUST have a plan B. What if you found out trading isn't your passion later on? What if things aren't according to your expectation? Always have the worst case scenario in your mind, in that sense you're always being resilient and well-prepared. • Majority of the profitable traders have other supplemental income sources to carry off the burdens during their drawdown period. Acquire other high income skills and monetize them. • Despite the importance of diversification, ensure you've mastered your trading skills before you jump onto another things. Remember that an overly wide diversification is only required when investors do not know what they are doing. "In trading/ investing it's not about how much you make, but how much you don't lose." - Bernard Baruch Comment down below what's your trading goals in 2021! Trade safe as usual. Do follow my profile for daily fx forecast & educational content.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDEducation
by TraderNeoh
13
Winrates required to breakeven relative to stop & target sizesTaking AUDUSD as an example here, the spread is not the smallest relative to ATR nor the largest. The formula to get a breakeven winrate is 1/(1+reward/risk). Because we want winrate*reward = loserate*risk <=> winrate*reward = (1-winrate)*risk <=> winrate*reward + winrate*risk = risk (never 0) <=> winrate = 1/(1+reward/risk) For example with a 20 pip stop, base risk to reward of 1 to 5, and 2 point spread, reward or winners = 98 pips, risk or losers = 22 pips. So the reward/risk = 98/22 = 4.4545454545... So the breakeven winrate will be 1/5.4545454545 = 18.33% That is just the breakeven winrate. Profitability will of course depend on: - Frequency: How many trades you are able to take - Winrate: How much higher than the breakeven winrate it is - Position size: Profitability does not go up the higher it goes If a strategy or trader only gets a couple of trades a year and his winrate is barely above breakeven, he will not be very profitable, and it will be very easy to lose all profits. And as the stops & targets in pips go down, the hit rates needed to actually make money go up exponentially up to a point where the trader needs to own a crystal ball and be able to predict the future. Take costs into consideration with any strategy and before placing any trade. And 1 other thing to keep in mind is spreads can also fluctuate, depending on the broker, at certain hours they can go up 3 fold, sometimes more, it can really hurt. A cool thing you may notice is with a stop of 20 pips, the spread/stop = 10% and also the winrate to breakeven is increased by 10% for both risk to rewards. Same thing with the 5 pips stop. And so on. The required winrate to breakeven increases by 100*(spread/stop)%. Easy to quickly calculate when you are considering trades.
Education
by MrRenev
An overlooked rule: Wait for the gamblers to have their funMarkets in general sort of always manage to find the nobs breaking point. After big rallies, some may say bubbles, what is known as "dumb money" is attracted, and you might hear that "oh they don't mean dumb in that sense" if you believe this bs you know you are one of them. Where does this experession come from then? They used the word dumb but without meaning it? "They meant you didn't take the time to think" ye that's right, dumb money didn't take the time to think before buying, or before doing anything, which is also known as "being dumb period". Serious investors know these creatures, these "emotionals", are morons. They don't want to get all unpopular so they don't just say the truth directly. The market is not a separate entity, it moves because its participants move it. Those nobs that get all excited, the gamblers and the breakeven idiots, they prevent the price from going up for 2 reasons: - Gamblers buy & sell randomly, 1 because they are gamblers, 2 because they are stupid enough to be gamblers therefore are unable to make any correct prediction, if they try they'll be the kind to get excited twice a day and change their mind based on the latest fractal or magical secret indicator they saw (often accompanied by "I am a legend"). - Breakeven idiots love to breakeven. They buy randomly the latest hyped thing, might be a ponzi, might not, they are full random, if they only bought scams there would be some value to them obviously, but nope, full random. They are bad, they look to get rich quick, and hold bags. They hold to zero on the way down, and to nothing at all on the way up. After bagholding they get desperate to breakeven (see the GME clowns that bought at $350 and above), same with dotcoms. How many idiots were relieved they could finally sell their Amazon shares at $30? Congrats man you got me you get last word well done you were right to hold your bag. You got your $30 a share back. Now Amazon is $3000. So it's obvious what I'm getting at. Once these clowns get wiped out by a scary red candle after bagholding for years (Bitcoin first half of 2020) there basically is no more resistance, the few bagholders left will breakeven at key levels but it won't stop the uptrend, the majority of the breakeven bagholder herd got ripped to pieces by crocs when they crossed the river. Nasdaq, Bitcoin, etc. The more gamblers and breakeven bagholders get attracted to something, the more vertically it goes up after they get wiped out. And until they get wiped out the market never bottoms. They will never win. They are the ultimate illustration of what being BAD at something is. Fun fact you will always hear from the 1% of this herd that got lucky, the ones with survivor bias "ye sure this river is safe to cross for wildebeests just look at me". Wildebeests are the dumbest creatures I have ever seen, after weekend "investors" of course. The behavior, not sarcasm I am serious, the behavior is the same. Do you want to be on the side of wildebeests or the side of crocodiles? The survivor bias ones celebrate their "gains" showing their extreme ignorance, they act like the herd made money, but data says otherwise. We used to have robintrack for example, also the UK regulator which banned BTC in the UK but even in Europe because too many people were losing too much money. We could see visually the data directly. GME, Tesla... (GME from Citadel among others). With Tesla when they buy "the dip" and the price bounces they ALL end up selling on the way up, "breakeven", oh gosh myfxbook is mindblowing for this it's absolutely insane, the 95% on the wrong side of a trend, the average winner size and loser, the awful entries and exits etc. And while TSLA goes up no retailer buys UNTIL THE TOP, and you know exactly what happens: THIS TIME THEY HOLD. Get rid of winners, hold losers. Brilliant. They have this ability to buy at the very top, absolute genius. Hear some news then "sidelines" like they aren't late enough, then crack "OK NOW IS THE RIGHT TIME TO BUY"! The vast majority of crypto bagholders and "dip" buyers that were desperate to catch the bottom ended up missing out. Isn't that amazing? > Do not trade corrections in general > When the gambling bagholding herd joins, get ready to exit and then stay away > Let the gamblers have their fun, and get back into a market after they leave It has always worked this way and it will keep working this way. Gamblers will ALWAYS lose. Bottoms will ALWAYS happen once they get wiped out and never before that, no matter how hard they try to "HODL". If it's not clear enough, if a Tesla or GME or BTC baggy is reading, it's not just about value investors: TREND FOLLOWERS FOLLOW TRENDS. TREND FOLLOWERS CREATE TRENDS. THE PRICEY NO GOY UP IF NO TREND HAPPEN BECAUSE BREAKEVEN TRADERS ARE SELLING. TREND START AFTER BREAKEVENERS AND RANDOM GAMBLERS GET OUT AND SELLING PRESSURE GO GO HOME. THEN PRICE GO GO UP NATURALLY THEN TREND FOLLOWERS FOLLOW TREND AND PRICEY GO GO UP MORE. IF NO TREND THEN TREND FOLLOWERS NO SEE TREND AND NO BUY AND NO PUSH PRICEY UP. I'll make another idea where I get into this, more clean, and without using the word idiot every sentence :D Funny how bagholders try so hard to get everyone else to hold when this is precisely what is holding them back, ignorance and stupidity are cruel jokes.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by MrRenev
14
Trading Strategies and Style - Price Action Analysis Hello everyone: Recently I have many newcomers/subscribers/followers on my various channels and platforms, so I want to make this video to summarize what exactly are my strategies and style in trading. It's important to understand everyone trades differently, and different styles and strategies. What's more important is to understand if the strategies and style work for you and you only as a trader. Does a typical style/strategy satisfy your vision in trading ? Does the risk/reward make sense to you as a trader ? Does the trading plan and management sound feasible and realistic to you ? Do you have the right mindset and emotion when it comes to trading these types of strategies and style ? These are the questions to think about when you are serious about trading. So, let's take a look into how I trade and what are the key important aspects that I look for in trading. -Price Action Analysis -Impulse VS Correction -Continuation VS Reversal Correction/Structure -Multi time frame analysis (top down approach) -Risk Management (3:1 RR) -Trading Psychology (Mindset and emotion) (FOMO, Revenge Trading, Over Leverage Trading) As always, any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know. Thank you Jojo
Education
by jojofang0901
25