Use Proper Position Sizing In Forex (Mandatory)Proper position sizing is THE single most important skill that traders could have. Without it, you’ll end up taking trades that are too big or too small, either blowing out your account or under utilizing a high performing trading method.
Typically, risking a max of 1% to 2% of account per trade is recommended for new traders to avoid ruin, but that will change as your skills grow.
Using a position size calculator, you can match your ideal risk per trade together with your entry and exit levels to give you the exact number of units that you should work with.Of course, you could always round them off (as long as you stay within your max risk) to make your trade journal entries easier or if your broker isn’t flexible with their position size offerings.
Position Sizing: The Way to Profit in Forex
It has been said that the single most important factor in building equity in your trading account is the size of the position you take in your trades. In fact, position sizing will account for the quickest and most magnified returns that a trade can generate. Here we take a controversial look at risk and position sizing in the Forex market and give you some tips on how to use it to your advantage.
How Much Risk Is Enough?
So just how should a trader go about playing for meaningful stakes? First of all, all traders must assess their own appetites for risk. Traders should only play the markets with "risk money," meaning that if they did lose it all, they would not be destitute. Second, each trader must define—in money terms—just how much they are prepared to lose on any single trade. Usually, this percentage is about 2%-3%. Depending on your resources, and your appetite for risk, you could increase that percentage to 5% or even 10%, but I would not recommend more than that.
Look on example chart: Risk was around $110 vs Reward of $185 to $275 or 1 to 1.5 to 2.5 setup. This was based on 1 standard size lot.
Risk Management
3 Steps Of A Trade (Step #3 Exit Order)Forex Exit Strategies: Tricks on Setting Limit Orders:
Forex exit strategies and exiting a trading position at the right time and price is arguably more important than your entry order. Because only when you exit, you lock in and confirm your profit. Choose the best currency pairs and the best times to trade.Today, let’s talk about getting out, WITH profit. By paying attention to a small trick when setting limit exit orders in your long-term trades.
There are many ways to calculate your Forex exit strategies. They highly depend on your trading time frame, your account’s margin and on the market sentiment in general.Identifying Limit orders or Profit Taking Levels is one of them. These are the areas you calculate to get out of your position and manage your Forex exit strategies when the market prices reach your target.
Limit Orders
Traders usually use market orders to exit trades with a big profit. If you use a limit order while you are going long, then your limit order will be higher than the market price.On the other hand, if you go short with a limit order, then your limit order will be below the market price. Imagine a limit order like a finish line. Your trades will be directly closed every time the market price crosses your limit orders.
Put bull exit orders below obvious psychological round numbers (ex: 1.50000, etc...) and above bearish psychological numbers, support and resistance areas. Most of time big banks on purpose do not go to these areas knowingly that a lot of traders are TRAPPED in these areas.
Trade 3 Steps (Step #2 Enter Order)Entry orders are a valuable tool in Forex trading. Traders can have a great trading plan, but if they can’t execute that plan effectively, all their hard work might as well be thrown out the window. This is where setting up Forex entry orders comes into play. Entry orders allow traders to set price that they would like to buy or sell a currency ahead of time. Only be executed if that specific price is hit. There are several benefits to trading Forex using entry orders.
WHAT IS AN ENTRY ORDER IN FOREX TRADING?
A Forex entry order is an order that is placed at a specified price level for a currency pair. Once this price is reached, the order is then executed/filled. If the price never reaches the desired price level, the order will not execute. The type of order can vary as well, which should be taken into consideration prior to placing the Forex order.
TOP 5 BENEFITS OF USING FOREX ENTRY ORDERS
1. Price Control- The first benefit of entry orders is the control they provide over price level. Traders can indicate their desired price level entry point at which the trade will execute. Having this ability to designate a level allows for ease of trading without having to constantly monitor the market.
2. Entry Orders Save Time-Forex entry orders are very useful for saving time. By setting one, traders do not need to be at a computer when a trend line is hit or when price breaks out of its price channel. Traders can very easily add an entry order to get in the trade if price behaves in the way he/she thinks it will. The order does the waiting and allows traders to focus on other things.
3. Better Money Management- Forex entry orders help to save money. To understand this better, consider how much time traders dedicate to trading each day.
4. Accountability-Forex entry orders (with stops and limits attached) also help keep traders accountable. This is because they eliminate the possibility of emotions getting in the way of reliable, profitable trades, and make sure traders are following the rules to the latter.
5. Support Trading on a Time Frame-Trading on a custom time frame can allow for more specified trades that could be in line with upcoming market news, political events or company results depending on what market is being traded. Traders can stipulate the expiry period for the entry order:
Trade 3 Steps (Step #1 Stop-Loss Order)“Always use stop-loss orders.” -W.D. Gann, legendary investor/trader
What is Stop Loss in Forex?
Stop loss in Forex is a great way to minimize the amount of money you lose through trading. It is an exit plan in the event of a losing trade. Essentially, stop loss is a limit you set to minimize your risk that automatically exits you out of a trade if your currency pair dips below a level that is losing you money. Stop loss is a valuable mechanism that Forex traders must use if they want to make a living from Forex Trading. It is especially essential for beginner and inexperienced Forex traders who aren’t able to always make the best trade choices. Stop loss, while important for beginners, is also used by experienced traders. There’s no downside to protecting your trades- unexpected fluctuations of currency prices happens all the time, and it’s wise to safeguard your investing when you can. Stop loss also allows you to make trades and walk away from the computer for a while, instead of having to watch the currencies change. It also worth mentioning that stop loss can work against you. * I let the trade breath with stop loss but still look for 1:5 or higher risk reward setups.
Let’s say your stop-loss is hit and you are automatically backed out of a trade, and after you’re exited from the trade the currency pair swings back other way exponentially? Not only did you just lose money on the trade, you missed out on a potentially big profit. This is why some Forex traders might have a disdain for stop loss since they view it as missing out on opportunities for major swings in a currency pair. While it depends on who you talk to, the majority of Forex traders will advise you to use stop loss, especially for beginners. It’s necessary to know about stop loss orders and how to calculate the proper limit to set it at.
Figure out your stop-loss strategy and keep to it- it will save you in the long run. Nailing down a proper stop loss strategy before you start trading is one of the best ways you can ensure yourself from the always-changing Forex market.Choosing best stop loss strategy depends on your experience, skill level, bankroll, etc. There are so many different factors that will impact what the best stop loss strategy will be for you. As with everything in Forex, it’s best to educate yourself on Forex trading strategies to eventually get to the point where you’re making a consistent income through online trading.
REASONS not to trade 1st hour of sessionIf you are either a scalper trader and/or a day trading, the 1st hour of new session is never a place to trade: Here are some reasons:
1) Low Liquidity
2) Low Volume
3) Very High spread widening ( can be 15 to 20 pips) from broker
4) Very Large hourly candlesticks (example: 88 pip large clearing doji candlestick) happens for broker to take both buyer and seller positions out.
Note: 1st hour of session is during Sydney session, then afterwards Tokyo session starts. Increasing liquidity and volume starts end of Tokyo.
Part of your plan should be:
Pairs to trade
When to trade
What setups to trade
Trading edge & Strategy
Do not be greedy especially during the financial craziness going on in most countries around the world, just get a piece of PIP PIE in a trade if you are either a scalper or day trading. Use risk management and commonsense- this is no place to gamble with your money- use probabilities of success of setups.
Smart Money- Pair,Price,Session & TimeIf you are a scalper trader or day trader you need to know always:
What pair are you trading (ADR, day of week, etc...)
What price is right now
What session(s) is open/closed now- start of session, middle or end
What is time- lunch in Tokyo, London or NY.
Smart Money- Where is the money- right now?
From example one hour chart of Friday (what do you see?)
You need to know support or resistance areas (bearish or bullish order blocks)
When price action could breakout or reverse from a manipulation phase- anticipation and catching these moves are early will give your set ups less risk and lower stop loss, especially if you scalp or day trade.
The 3 Types of Traders. Who Do You Belong To? 🤔
There are thousands of different ways to trade the market.
During the last 100 years, various trading strategies and techniques were invented.
One of the ways to categorize them is to split them by types of traders.
Such a category type will lean on 2 main elements:
trading frequency and time frame selection.
1️⃣ - Scalper
I guess 99% of newbie traders start from scalping.
Trying to catch quick market moves and become rich quick,
newbies are practicing different scalping strategies.
What is funny about scalping is the fact that such a trading style is considered to be the easiest by the majority while remaining one of the hardest in the view of pros.
The main obstacle with scalping is a constant focus and rapid decision-making.
Scalpers usually open dozens of trading positions during the trading session, most of the time being in front of the screen constantly.
Paying huge commissions to the broker and dealing with complete chaos on lower time frames, the majority simply can't survive the pressure and drop, leaving the pie to true gurus.
2️⃣ - Day Trader
Day trading or intraday trading is the most appealing to me.
Staying relatively active, the market gives some time for the trader for reflection & thinking.
Opening and managing on average 1-2 trades per trading session, the intraday trader is granted a certain degree of freedom.
However, with declining volatility, quite ofter intraday traders get a relatively low risk/reward ratio for their trades,
3️⃣ - Swing Trader
Swing trading is the best choice for traders having a full-time job.
Primarily being focused on daily/weekly time frames, swing trading is not demanding for a daily routine and aims at catching mid-term/long-term market moves.
With an average holding period being around 2 weeks and opening 1-2 trading positions per week, swing trading is considered to be the least emotional and involves low risk.
The main problem with swing trading is patience.
Correctly identifying the market trend and opening a trading position,
the majority tends to close their positions preliminary not being patient enough to let the price reach their target.
Which trading type do you prefer?
Continuation & Reversal Correction in price action structures
In-depth look at Continuation & Reversal Correction in price action structures/patterns
Hi everyone:
Today I want to revisit the fundamental aspect of trading impulsive and corrective phases in Price Action Analysis.
As you all know I focus on multi-time frame analysis and forecasting/anticipating the next impulsive move in the market.
To me, the most important part of identifying the next impulsive phase of the market, is to understand how correction works.
An impulse phase usually happens after a correction has finished correcting, so the key is to identify and understand how a corrections structure will complete so we anticipate the next impulsive move.
You may have seen my videos on this topic, but today I will go more in detail on this, and explain the 2 types of correctional structure the market can create.
The market can only be in 2 phases, impulsive phrase or corrective phrase.
In addition, the corrective phrase can only be continuation, or reversal.
So to fully have an edge in the market, is to understand what the correctional structure the price is currently making,
whether a continuation/reversal, then forecast the possible price outlook, and go down to the lower time frames for possible entries.
Now, it's important to understand that different traders/strategies/styles will call these patterns/structures in varies names.
What they are called or identify isn't important, but the important aspect is to understand whether they are continuation, or they are reversal.
In addition, simply seeing price action structures/patterns by itself, is not a good enough entry criteria for me.
You want to combine multi- time frame analysis, top-down approach, and with multiples of these price actions all happening so it adds extra confluence for you to enter a particular trade.
Seeing a H and S pattern, on a 5 minute chart, without considering the overall HTF and other factors, will not be a consistent move in the long run.
Continuation Correctional Structure/Pattern
Bullish/Bearish Flag
Bullish/Bearish Pennant
Parallel Channel
Reversal Correctional Structure/Pattern
Ascending/Descending Channel
Rising/Falling Wedge
Double Top/Bottom
Head & Shoulder Pattern/Inverse H and S
“M” and “W” style pattern
Reversal Impulse Price Action
I will forward all the price action structures/patterns videos I have made in the past to help you understand each of the structures more.
Impulse VS Correction
Multi-time frame analysis
Identify a correction for the next impulse move in price action analysis
Continuation Bull/Bear Flag
Parallel Channel (Horizontal, Ascending, Descending)
Reversal Ascending/Descending Channel
Reversal Double Top/Bottom
Reversal Head & Shoulder Pattern
Reversal “M” and “W” style pattern
Reversal Impulse Price Action
Continuation/Reversal Expanding Structure/Pattern
Any questions, comments or feedback please let me know. :)
Thank you
Jojo
How to manage & deal with consecutive losses in trading ?
Trading Psychology: How to manage & deal with losses/consecutive losses in trading ?
Hi everyone:
Today I want to go over a very key trading psychology lesson on how to deal with losses, especially consecutive losses.
This is bound to happen to any traders, whether you are new or experienced. ITs something all professional traders will have to deal with on a regular basis.
Understand that, dealing with losses psychologically is the key factor in the success of a trader.
This is because losses are inevitable, and trading is a probability, which trades that you take will end up both in wins and losses.
However, traders usually can not accept losses, due to their ego, greed and other emotional factors.
Aside from having a good risk management, trading plan, and trading strategies, traders can still experience the psychological emotions of losing.
This is due to the fact that we are humans and we are an “emotional” animal. We don't want to be wrong, at all.
Taking a loss is like getting slapped in the face by the market, which we have egos to fight against.
What ends up after taking losses or consecutive losses, it puts traders at a disadvantage where their emotion is high, and likely to “revenage” trade to chase back losses, which end up in a deeper hole.
To deal with such psychological phenomena, take a step back and observe your situation:
First, did you follow your trading plan/strategy on how to enter, set SL/TP, and management ?
Second, did you take an emotional trade due to greed or fear of missing out ?
Third, have you journal down your losses and review them to make sure they are trades you really want to risk your capitals on ?
By now you will see why we need to review these. Trading is a probability, not right or wrong. It's a random variable that you are putting your $ at risk.
So if you understand the rules and plans that you follow and execute a trade accordingly,
then there should NOT be any negative emotions towards the outcome of the trades, whether they are winners or losers.
When I discuss the trades I entered every week in my trade recaps videos, I am always happy to enter a position, even if it goes to a loss.
This is because I have done enough backtesting, chart work, and plan to enter a position.
I understand strictly from a probability point of view, I could have a higher strike rate, and more often the trades will end up as a winner rather than a loser.
However, I also understand and acknowledge that some trades will end up in a loss, disregard mine technical analysis or other’s fundamental analysis. It is what trading is all about.
When I have consecutive losses, I will always review the 3 points I mentioned above and make sure they are all valid for me.
Then I simply will take 1 day off from the market, chart, phone, and just get your mind clear. Come back strong after 1-2 days of rest, and have a positive mindset.
What traders often do when they have consecutive losses is to right away re-enter back into the market and try to chase back their losses.
This has always been the downfall of losing and it creates anxiety in traders’ minds.
Such a negative experience is going to stay in the traders’ mind longer and deeper, compared to consecutive winners.
So wise we understand that is the case how our brain is "programmed” into thinking, then it's up to us to do the opposite, and fight the urge to “revenge” our losses.
At the end of the day, no one is trading your trading account, except yourself.
Taking ownership of your account, learning to control our emotions, understanding the probability side of trading, and learning to let go, drop our ego will help us in the long run in this industry.
I hope these pointers can help some traders who are still struggling with this concept.
It's impossible not to take losses, but professional traders deal with it on a regular basis and still remain consistent in the long run.
Thank you
I will forward some Trading Psychology educational videos below on some of the topics explained today.
Trading Psychology: Revenge Trading
Trading Psychology: Fear Of Missing Out
Trading Psychology: Over Leveraged Trading
Trading Psychology: Is there Stop Loss Hunting in Trading ? How to deal with it ?
The Hammer (How To Trade)The hammer:
Puts in its appearance after prolonged downtrend. On the day of the hammer candle, there is strong selling, often beginning at the 3rd/4 hour candle of session. As the session goes on, however, the market recovers and closed near the unchanged mark, or in some cases even higher. In these cases the market potentially is "hammering" out a bottom.
In order for the Hammer signal to be valid, the following conditions must exist:
The FX pair must have been in a definite downtrend before this signal occurs. This can be visually seen on the chart.
The lower shadow must be at least twice the size of the body.
The 4 hour (example candle, see chart) after the Hammer is formed, one should witness continued buying
There should be no upper shadow or a very small upper shadow. The color of the body does not matter, but a blue/green body would be more positive than a red body.
Make sure pattern on 4 hour time frames happen during Tokyo session, can be on 1 hour time frame if they happen during London or NY session. (fyi)
Dragonfly Doji (How to Use It)A "Dragonfly" doji:
Depicts a time period on which prices opened high, sold off, and then returned to the opening price.
Dragonflies are fairly infrequent, but when seen on hourly, 4 hour or higher would consider trading them to the bullish side.
When they do occur, however, they often resolve bullishly (provided the Forex pair is not already overbought as shown by Bollinger bands and indicators such as stochastic).
Things to look for:
1) Dragonfly doji to happen in 1st 8 hours of a new session.
2) First 8 hours of new session is low liquidity and volume (during Tokyo session).
3) For scalping or day trading, I would make sure right pair, right price, right session and right time- for trading any FX pairs.
4) If you catch a pattern within the 1st 8 hours- you may be able to ride the trade thru the end of London session (this is end of all of my trades or earlier).
Example chart trade was set up on 4 hour session with a 1:1.5 risk/reward setup with is great if you are day trading a trade for 8-10 hours. Are you patience?
Breakouts (Keep Trading Simple)Breakouts
Violation of Trend Line, Support or Resistance, or previous reversal point.
It signifies that a change in buyer and seller behavior and signals the beginning or end of a trend.
See chart for more visual clues on how to trade this: 1:4 risk reward would have worked on this trade or 20 pip stop vs 80 pip target+.
AudJpy (Day Trade- How To Manage It)Patience is a must in trading Forex. Take a deep breath. Let trade work out. This AudJpy trade was an example of risking 25 pips vs target of 25 pips on the initial setup and then bring stop loss to lock in break even when New York opens for 25 pips vs 50 pip target. Let trade play out..
Sydney-Tokyo Overlap Session Do you trade AUD pairs? If yes, look for trends to start during the overlapping session with Tokyo: around 6 hr overlap time.
What To Look For:
1) Look on hourly charts for trends with AUDxxx or xxxAUD pairs to start during Sydney-Tokyo overlapping session (slow but great risk/reward setups)
2) See AUDJPY 1 hour chart example- excellent Harami two candle pattern to set up a bullish trade with. (placed in purple box on chart)
3) 81.500 price level is a highly psychological price level for big banks and realtor traders ( both, love price numbers ending with 000,250,500 or 750)
4) On chart is three indicators (that I use either alone or together) to get confluence with to enter a new trade: Yes, price action only with naked charts work.
A- Ichimoku Cloud- price action is above gold line or conversion line (so bullish sign)
B- Pivot Points- price action is above weekly pivot point or red line (so bullish sign)
C- Bollinger Band- price action is on or above 20 ema or middle yellow line and BB squeeze is starting (so bullish sign)
Note: With Aud pairs- look for trends to start during the Sydney session and both Sydney-Tokyo overlapping session- this AUDJPY bullish trade on hourly chart on Friday could have let you ride it for most of the daily session. Do not be greedy when scalping or day trading- get your pip piece of pie and close trade.
With all trading price action and risk management are both #1 (set entry, stop and targets for all trades)-
Harami/Inside Bar (3 of 3)Harami/Inside Bar
This pattern is a two-candlestick pattern in which the first candlestick vertically encompasses the one that follows it. This signal is interpreted in two ways:
1. An indication that an increase in volatility is imminent. This affords traders the opportunity to create trades that speculate not so much on direction,
but rather on an increase in volatility on a breakout in any specific direction.
2. In the context of a trend, a harami/inside bar can be indicative of exhaustion and the onset of a reversal. In this manner, it is similar to long wick patterns
and evening star/morning star patterns examined earlier in this guide.
Note: All three patterns in this series (Pin-bar, Harami and Engulfing) should be traded with a confluence of things like:
1) Support and Resistance
2) Trend lines
3) Fib Retracement levels (50% to 61.8%) golden zone
4) Remember: Pair you trade, Price right now, Session(s) open & Time it is. All of these are highly important in Forex trading.
5) Patterns at pivot points (daily, weekly or monthly)
Engulfing Candlesticks (2 of 3)Engulfing Candlesticks
The other important candlestick pattern I think price action traders need to have knowledge on is the engulfing candlestick. Like pin bar the engulfing candle is a reversal pattern, which means that a reversal is supposed to take place immediately after you see one form in the market. Unlike the pin bar the engulfing candlestick is a two bar reversal pattern, a pattern which requires there to be two candlesticks present in order for it's formation to be complete.
The formation of a bearish engulf is always a signal that a reversal to the downside is about to take place. The pattern itself consists of two candlesticks.
The bearish engulfing candlestick itself, which I've marked with an arrow, and the bullish candlestick that formed an hour before. The bullish candle is first candle required in the bearish engulf setup. This is the candlestick which the market will always engulf with a bearish candle immediately after it's formation.
In order for a bearish engulfing candle to form, a bullish candle must have formed immediately prior. You can't have a bearish candlestick engulfing another
bearish candle, it has to be a bullish candle in order for it to be a bearish engulf.
Bullish engulfing candlesticks are of course the opposite to bearish engulfing candles, which means their appearance is a sign the market is going to reverse
to the upside. Like the bearish engulfing candle they are also a two bar pattern, but instead of the first candle in the pattern being a bullish candlestick, like we see with the bearish engulfing formation, the first candle in a bullish engulfing setup will always engulf a bearish candle. A bullish engulfing candle cannot engulf another bullish candle, it can only engulf bearish candles.
Engulfing candlesticks are best used as signals to enter trades at pre-existing points where you expect the market to reverse, such as support and resistance
levels or supply and demand zones. They can be traded on their own without any other confirming factors being present, but in my opinion they don't tend to work out as well as pin bars do.
Pin Bar/Hammer Candlestick (Part 1 of 3)The pin bar is a single candle pattern which can be found forming across all currencies and all time-frames in the market. It falls into the category of price
action reversal patterns due the fact it's appearance is supposed to be a signal a reversal is going to occur. Although it must be said that very few pin bars actually cause large reversals to take place in the market, (I'll explain why in a minute).
Like most price action patterns the pin bar comes in two varieties:
The bullish pin bar, which signals a reversal to the upside may be about to take place, and the bearish pin bar, which is a sign a reversal to the downside is
probably going to occur. You can see that the vast majority of these bullish pins did cause the market to reverse once they had formed, but they didn't all cause it to reverse for the same duration of time. Some caused large upswings to take place whilst others only created small retracements.
Again, you can see that the pin bars which formed on here also caused reversals of varying sizes to take place. The reason why pin bars cause different sized reversals to occur, is because of the action that caused the pin bar to form in the first place. Pin bars and all the other candlesticks you see forming on your charts, form as a result of traders making decisions in regards to the market price. Pin bars happen to form exclusively from the bank traders either placing trades because they want to make the market reverse, or from taking profits off trades which they've already got placed.
The reversal created by the pin bar which has formed as a result of the bank traders taking profits off their trades, is naturally much smaller than the reversal caused by the pin which has formed from the bank traders placing trades to make the market reverse. It's obvious why this is, I mean if you took some profits off a trade you would want the market to continue moving in the direction to which your trade had been placed so you could make more money from the trade. The bank traders want the same to happen when they cause a pin bar to form from taking profits off their own trades, which is why the reversal caused by some pin bars forming are much smaller than the reversals caused by other pins forming.
Bullish and bearish pin bars are really good reversal patterns to watch out for if you're a price action trader, but they must be traded in the right way and you must understand why they form in the market. Most of the books and guides out there on pin bars do not teach traders what causes them to form, when it's knowing what causes them to form that will allow you to determine which pins have a high probability of working out successfully.
Head & Should Pattern (How To Trade)The Head And Shoulders Pattern
The first price action reversal pattern we're going to look at is the head and shoulders pattern. Without doubt one of the most popular and well known price
action patterns in the market, the head and shoulders formation is one which all price action traders need to memorize and understand if they want to become
good at spotting reversals using price action. As you've probably already guessed, the head and shoulders pattern is a reversal pattern which has a swing
structure very similar to that of person's head and shoulders.
You can see from the image the structure of the pattern does bear a striking resemblance to somebody standing up with their head straight and their
shoulders level with one another. Most head and shoulders patterns are supposed to look like the one you can see in the image above, but a large
percentage of them will actually have features which are a little different from one another. For example, you might see a pattern form with one of the shoulders being a little bit higher than the other, or the distance of two shoulders from the head will be smaller or bigger than what you can see in the pattern above. These small differences do not alter the pattern in any meaningful way. So long as the head is always found in the middle and the two shoulders are found to be either side, it's a head and shoulder pattern.
If the high of the right shoulder is found to be below the swing low of the move up which created the head, then it's not a head and shoulders pattern and should not be treated as such.
Rules:
1) measure from top of head to neckline for excepted target goal, once price action breaks neckline.
2) These patterns are infrequent, but powerful on 1 hour or higher time frames.
Alert-Confirm-Enter StrategyThe A.C.E. strategy is one of the easier ones to do if you scalp or day trade in Forex.
A- Alert Candle 1st one
C- Confirm Candle 2nd one
E- Enter Candle 3rd on
This can be done on bearish an bullish set ups:
1) ALERT- Look for the last trend ending candlestick. 1st candlestick (which is part of three bar pattern)
2) CONFIRM- Look for a longest trend ending candlestick (doji, pin bar, harami etc... (2nd candlestick)- top of this in bullish reversal is enter price and bottom of this in bearish reversal is enter price.
3) ENTER- Look for 3rd candlestick to go into new direction breaking top (bullish) or bottom (bearish) of 2nd candlestick to Enter trade.
4) Put stop loss above top of bearish trade or below bullish trade. For trade on 1 hour chart, I like 20 pips, with a 1:2 or higher risk reward setup.
Please look at example chart and look for many more on other one hour charts for pairs you trade. Keep trading as simple as possible. GbpAud.
The Death of Buy-and-Hold reduxAs a follow-up to my previous article, “The Death of Buy-and-Hold” , Bitcoin in these last four months has demonstrated quite vividly to us the error of that outdated methodology, that Buy-and-Hold is truly dead and technical trading is superior to what is called “investing” today.
In the two month period from February, 2021 through April, Bitcoin enjoyed a meteoric rise, gaining 100% in value during that 60 day period. However, as they say, “The bigger they are, the harder they fall…“ And fall it did… Bitcoin gave back every penny in the following two months crashing back to its February levels.
The most profitable, reliable, and consistent trading systems available to the average investor, as I demonstrated in previous articles , are those systems based on "supply and demand" methodologies. We can’t fight the hedge funds. We can’t fight China. We can’t fight the “whales” of the crypto market.
… But we can follow their footprints as traders .
I backtested Bitcoin based on my own proprietary supply and demand methodology, but I would assume that any supply and demand system would achieve similar results because we are all chasing the same protagonist (or antagonist, depending on how you look at them).
The results: From January 1, 2021 through June 22, buying and and holding Bitcoin would’ve net a zero return for the investor! Following a supply and demand methodology, however, the casual trader who might work on the 4 hour charts, checking in on their account once or twice per day, I identified 11 trading opportunities which resulted in a net profit of 42 percent .
Why would the investor make zero and the trader make 42%? Buy-and-hold only works in one direction… When the product gains value. Supply and demand trading lets you profit rain or shine, by the day or by the hour, in good times and bad.
I bring this up, not ultimately as an "I told you so" but as an encouragement: Yes, indeed, it is possible to pull a reliable, steady income from the markets, from the cryptos , from the indexes , from the commodities , rain or shine, week after week, once you learn to "see the money flow" and follow the trail as a trader .
One does not have to have their livelihoods be subject to the whims of the economy, of policies imposed by public officials, of Tweets from CEOs, from natural disasters, from supply chain disruptions, the whims of totalitarian nations, nor an employer, employees, or customers.
Most importantly, Supply and Demand trading protects us from the large financial institutions who regularly engage in Market Manipulation , whose tactics include fear and greed news cycles, whose analysts and "experts" foment 'sentiment' among their viewing audience, whose priority is to broadcast information that will financially benefit themselves, and not their viewers.
Trade well!
It always works the same way...Human-sheep hybrids psychology.
No matter where I look I see the same flaws manifest in different ways
A quote
By 1998, Yahoo was the beneficiary of a de facto Ponzi scheme. Investors were excited about the Internet. One reason they were excited was Yahoo's revenue growth. So they invested in new Internet startups. The startups then used the money to buy ads on Yahoo to get traffic. Which caused yet more revenue growth for Yahoo, and further convinced investors the Internet was worth investing in. When I realized this one day, sitting in my cubicle, I jumped up like Archimedes in his bathtub, except instead of "Eureka!" I was shouting "Sell!"
The majority just ends up becoming bagholders one way or another.
Here are comments on the housing bubble from 2006
" Since the early seventies, our economic expansions have really been credit bubbles in disguise, and they have been paid for by inflating the money supply. The net result each time has been a reduction in the middle class standard of living. In the sixties, the family could easily make due on one income; do the math today…dual incomes aren’t enough now. "
thehousingbubbleblog.com
The lucky investors are the ones whose invetment falls like a rock and goes all the way to zero because they panic sell.
The unlucky one are the ones for who the price slowly falls and keeps giving them copium.
Virtually no one manages to make money trading, but they all manage to reach their primary goal which is to feel like a trader.
Technically humans are less able to adapt to gradual change than frogs, so the expression boiling frog is not that accurate.
Humans are huge bagholders with herd mentality. Some are bigger bagholders and more easilly enslaves.
Funny how it's impossible to find any useful tangible info on the subject on the internet you just get drowned in a sea of ideology propaganda.
The Milgram's experiments on obedience to authority are also interesting to read about. The vast majority complied with it, and even 65% went all the way to the final 450 volt death sentence.
What's great about the Milgram's experiences is they were used to criticize the holocaust (for stupid people that want to report me: I'm obviously not saying criticizing it is a bad thing), and they fall in line with the western ideology, so we can find plenty on the subject and read about it. That's their greatest quality: we can actually freely read about them.
You can't read (In Germany and France at least) anti LGBT research, articles, stats. That is illegal and incitation to hatred.
Spitting on a religion and printing drawings of the prophet sodomizing a sheep, which directly incites to hatred both in the arab world and in the west where people's head are cut off, is legally NOT incitation to hatred .
I'm just saying... You're in China you won't read about Tiananmen Square. The west used writtings and research by Gustave Le Bon and other guys I forgot the names of, that did a great job on herd mentality, propaganda, compliance, etc, and good luck finding much about it... Anyone that talks about it won't go to jail but will be a "crazy conspiracy theorist" and the herd believes it (they literally use the tactics they are accused of to silence critics it's hilarous).
With herd mentality did you know you could move a guided robot that looks like a sheep and the whole herd will come running?
It is also possible to use this to remote control fish in an aquarium? It is very fun.
It works the same way from humans but slighlty harder or more subtle.
For example the vast majority in urban areas will walk by someone dying on the ground, but if 1 person stops to help then the crowd stops too.
For example in a crowded area if people see 2-3 people run for their lives the whole crowd will follow, in that case the crowd might have to even the non-sheep.
In open concerts you start with a few weirdoes dancing and once the trend starts the crowd quickly dances and befor you know it the people not dancing are the weirdoes.
Bitcoin investors were considered idiots by "normies" or sheeple if you prefer, and somewhere between 2012 and 2017 investing in BTC became the norm and the skeptics are the idiots.
These herd trends look like the growth of a bacteria population (or viral pandemic), also appear in markets, but this is a story for another time.
📚 Leveraged & Margin Trading Guide + Examples ⚖️
Leveraged trading allows even small retail traders to make money trading different financial markets.
With a borrowed capital from your broker, you can empower your trading positions.
The broker gives you a multiplier x10, x50, x100 (or other) referring to the number of times your trading positions are enhanced.
Brokers offer leverage at a cost based on the amount of borrowed funds you’re using and they charge you per each day that you maintain a leveraged position open.
For example, let's take EURUSD pair.
Let's buy Euro against the Dollar with the hope that the exchange rate will rise.
Buying that on spot with 1.195 ask price and selling that on 1.23 price we can make a profit by selling the same amount of EURUSD back to the broker.
With x50 leverage, our return will be 50 times scaled.
With the leverage, we can benefit even on small price fluctuations not having a huge margin.
❗️Remember that leverage will also multiply the potential downside risk in case if the trade does not play out.
In case of a bearish continuation on EURUSD, the leveraged loss will be paid from our margin to the broker.
For that reason, it is so important to set a stop loss and calculate the risks before the trading position is opened.
❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️