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Risk Management

MACD - Lesson on what it is, how to useHere’s the basics of a MACD – I will say, I personally don’t use it, but I know it’s a popular indicator amongst newer traders. What is a MACD? A fairly straightforward indicator that calculates the difference between two exponential moving averages – of course this can be tweaked and modified but the standard settings seem to be 26 day and a 12 day. Moving average convergence divergence (MACD), invented in 1979 by Gerald Appel, is one of the most popular technical indicators in trading. The MACD is appreciated by traders the world over for its simplicity and flexibility, as it can be used either as a trend or momentum indicator. Click on the image for the lesson on MA's. The 12 day is considered the fast one and the 26 the slow one – so when people refer to a fast or slow line it is to this they are referring. The calculation is then done on the closing price of both EMA’s. The second measurement is known as a trigger – see image for the 3 components (in orange) the trigger is often, a nine-day EMA of the MACD itself is plotted as well. Histogram - The MACD histogram is an elegant visual representation of the difference between the MACD and its nine-day EMA. The histogram is positive when the MACD is above its nine-day EMA and negative when the MACD is below its nine-day EMA. If prices are rising, the histogram grows larger as the speed of the price movement accelerates, and contracts as price movement decelerates. The same principle works in reverse as prices are falling. How to use it? The MACD generates a bullish signal when it moves above its own nine-day EMA, and it sends a sell sign when it moves below its nine-day EMA. What does this mean? Because there are two moving averages with different “speeds”, the faster one will obviously be quicker to react to price movement than the slower one. When a new trend occurs, the faster line (MACD Line) will react first and eventually cross the slower line (Signal Line). When this “crossover” occurs, and the fast line starts to “diverge” or move away from the slower line, it often indicates that a new trend has formed. This in essence is Divergence… What you will notice here in the recent Bitcoin move; is when the cross happened the price fell. But unfortunately, the divergence trade is not very accurate, as it fails more than it succeeds. So, it’s not as easy as plugging in a MACD and running with it! The MACD histogram is the main reason why so many traders rely on the indicator to measure momentum, due to it responding to the speed of price movement. Many traders use the MACD indicator more frequently to gauge the strength of the price move than to determine the direction of a trend. In the image below; I have removed the EMA’s and kept only the histogram to show the example. You will see that from point A to B on the chart and how it is represented in the histogram & then again from point C to D – both showing bullish momentum from a low point. And in this example below; the Histogram shows more negative strength from X to Y. The Truth No indicator is perfect – no trader is perfect; two wrongs won’t make it right. Some traders swear by MACD and others avoid it. The one thing I can say, is if you keep to its rules then you could make it work for you. Using the indicators histogram over price or entries with Divergence might be what your looking for, then MACD is useful. But don’t rely on especially as the only entry/exit tool. Why did I write this if I don’t use it? Like many indicators, they are lagging – the issue is most educational content online shows MA’s, MACD’s, RSI. Newer traders assume there is some holy grain in terms of indicators. There isn’t – all of what indicators say, can be seen in price – after all it’s what they are calculated on. I’ve written this to highlight the logic of a MACD for newer traders looking or using it. To at least highlight what it is your looking at. Hope it helps somebody out there! For more educational content, see the links below in "related ideas". Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
8
How to make money with price actionSo you want to get into price action? Not fundamentals ey. But then one HAS to do all this backtesting, there is no dodging it. Can't go into "TA" to dodge the FA work, and then want to also dodge the stat work xd No magic trick here. Let's get started immediately. EURUSD 2020 covid trend (can't 100% dodge fundas, always good to know why we're going in a direction): EURUSD 2018-2019 "thing" (trade war uncertainty and erratic tweets): EURUSD 2017 trend: We are starting to see trends last 1-2 years in recent history, so not much point looking at a 5Y chart. It's also silly to be super zoomed in on some "intraday" or "swing trading" chart with no clue what is really going on. EURUSD 2015-2016 ranging 2 years: EURUSD 2014 violence some may remember: Day gamblers looking for "10 pips" that hold bags were happy to go through a 3500 pips loss. Still has not recovered. I can only imagine the incredible pain loss averse gamblers must have gone through. The pain not only never ends but it just keeps getting worse and worse and worse. Just no chance to breathe, only unbearable pain. Well that's interesting, why am I licking my lips? EURUSD in 2012-2013 does not look very fun: EURUSD 2011 downtrend Hey, starting to see some recurrent things here... EURUSD 2010 uptrend Backtesting tip: Doing it while playing a turn based game (alt tab between turns), or watching something that requires little attention, working out (between sets), "afk farm" games too... No one lasts with "motivation", we all have to find tricks. EURUSD 2010 downtrend And before that, we go to the 2000s era where FX was popular with hedge funds and trends lasted more than 1 year. 2008-2013 saw most FX funds disappear. Another tip: Maybe fundamentals can help predict when a trend will last, and avoid failing on this sad 3 impulses downtrend. It worked for the Yen a few years ago when the BOJ almost literally told traders "Hey if you short our currency we will give you money". And another tip: Eyeball backtesting. Have an idea? Want to know if it is worth digging in? Well don't just go full fanatical try hard! Do not spend hours and hours writing every detail in excel. Eyeball it with approximate numbers. Takes seconds. Then 2 choices appear: - Onto something ===> Go for the details - Nah it's nothing ===> Congratulation you did not waste tons of time on nothing (small time loss) Limiting losses, it's also valid with your time. How about I go look at the GBPUSD in the 80s ey? GBPUSD downtrend in 1980-1981 Aaaaaaaaaaand same story as usual ;) Repeat this 10 times, for a total of about 100 excel lines and ~25 trends. Then write some rules, and go backtest them on other charts. Because yes, the major currency pairs (USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD, CHF, NZD, CNH, MXN, SEK) more or less work the same, but don't take my word for it. Choices appear. Does the aspiring money manager want to only go for 3 impulses? And then miss all the big winners? Does he want to sacrifice winrate for bigger reward to risk ratios? Does he want a higher winrate (noob). Sometimes there are 5 impulses, does he (or she) go for 5? Or consider it is worth it to give up some winners? Weak hands or strong hands once in a trending winner? Most people have weak hands with winners but doesn't mean one has to absolutely ALWAYS hold. Holding all the time and letting it retrace hard would probably be a mistake. The noob that took the time (really it would barely take a few days of honest work) could already get started. I said get started, I don't know if it would make money. Maybe? Clearly 2R is a beginner thing. What if you could get 38% winrate with 2R and 22% winrate with 4R! Clearly worth it, but as always the majority of people are loss averse and choose the bad choice, trading is just not for them. One has to some stats, have a good working memory for many reasons, be able handle numbers like "I3 - .6 - Fast - EURUSD" (2 variables 2 constants). If someone cannot quickly juggle with numbers this is the wrong job. The variance is important for example, if an average pullback is .5 but 45% are in the .25-.45 range, and 45% in the > .8 range, here there are 2 groups to separate. Obviously here we would want to only go for the .25-.45 range, get a 4 or 5 or even greater reward to risk, let losers chase high winrate with gigantic stops. If 30% of the time the price bottoms in a .2 range and extends 1 at least, here that's a 5 risk to reward on double the breakeven winrate. Then what happens to the 70% who cares? A few bottom further away, a few turn into a new opposite trend, a few go sideways, they all stink. All for illustrative purposes, but it's typically what happens. I don't really know. What about some ways to increase the winrate, tips, and for those that have a hard time sticking to rules, especially cutting losses and holding winners? Surely, Mr Renev that said motivation did not work knows some tricks to fix all of that. Find tricks... I know no tricks in fixing gross mediocrity, just follow the rules, non negotiable. It's really simple. Can't do it ==> Wrong job. Can mediocre make money? I don't know I do not deal with mediocre. Also we can try to zoom in, but ideally only after having mastered the timeframe presented in this article. This is what I do, I zoom in. Let's take my 2020 idea "The pound is a 500 years old ponzi going to zero" So here is the full chart (1 year): Go H4 on I3: Then we can even go to H1: The target is 450 "pips" which for GBPAUD is in the 1 week ATR range, but better than the average. In a recent "tips" idea I showed: - Day gamblers working on a 8 hour ATR realistically need a PF of 1.15 (very best scenario) - 1.25 just to breakeven! - Swing Gamblers on a 2D ATR need a PF of 1.05 on EURUSD to breakeven. - And I won't look at scalpers because they can't possibly be serious. I think they are actually trolls. With this weekly ATR a PF of 1.02-1.03 is the breakeven rate. I am not bleeding much money compared to going long term. Day gamblers miss out on so much, AND they need an exceptional profit factor, ok not that amazing either (for day gambling it is) JUST TO BREAKEVEN. All that wasted money, how does it not drive them nuts? They're just throwing away a 20% margin. I just want to pull my eyelids out. To make money with Forex, many questions will have to be answered, and for this only one way, as we say in France "Va falloir aller au charbon!" (literally "Have to go to the coal"), means it will take time and effort and actively getting things done. So many questions: What trends can be eliminated? What trends SHOULD be eliminated? What impulses to go for? What is the optimal WR & RR compromise area? Do I just go for ABC first? Where to exit? What are solid Support and Resistance? Do I go for uptrends starting from a multi year low only (to dodge ranges)? How many ATR are each wave? What does 2 extend to? What other questions could I ask? How do I get inspiration to find more questions? Do I exploit this strategy enough? Can I optimise it more or should I look for something else? Hey and each of these questions will direct to more questions. "When I have this, this, and this, where do I exit". Like "Where I'm in the presence of a creeper trend", "fast trend", "clean trend"... Each trend has its own set of questions, all the same I listed, plus a few specific ones. It is essential to approach the study of markets in general and charts more specifically in manageable chunks. All while following economic news and checking on charts regularly. A day that makes sense could be one with 4 hours of backtesting, 4 hours of analysing charts, 4 hours of "fun" watching videos and reading and writing (all about investing), and 4 hours of time to eat and do unrelated stuff. All of this for 1 simple strategy. Answering these questions is a task to accomplish over years.
Education
by MrRenev
10 free trading tipsTip 1- Use statistics to avoid bad setups, and enter and exit at high probability areas Example: Wanting to join an early trend on a pullback? It probably is a bad idea to enter before 50% retrace. Elliott rules even say wave 2 typically retraces to 78.6%, so it's probably a good idea to wait for a big retrace before going in. Of course, and this could be another tip of itself, Elliott never made money investing, so it's best to learn from the charts than him. Tip 2- Use the daily chart, or more precisely the 6 months to 5 years chart By studying the charts one quickly learns that price evolves on the "daily chart". By this I don't mean the candles absolutely have to be 1 candle = 1 day, as long as depending on several factors 6 months to 5 years of price data are visible. Typically I go for about 2 years, and clicking on "D" is what looks best. Plus humans are on a 24 hour cycle, so daily candles just makes sense. Some people can't stand noise and just look at moving averages. Tip 3- It is probably a good idea to not try to join very extended trends on a pullback When an extended trend finally has a pullback, it's often going to be a big one. We all heard over and over some numbers such as "1.618". If 90% (totally arbitrary number) of EURUSD trends that make it to 2.618 and pullback end up reversing, and only 1% make it really far, you sure you can get a 1 to 100 risk to reward? Some areas might be best to avoid. In all competitions champions find all the tricks to make it as easy as possible. That's how one becomes the best. Not by being a complete idiot that goes straight ahead tries to brute force. "I die, yes, but with honor!". No no, no honor, you die like an idiot the enemy is laughing at you, and your village will get raped and burned to the ground. People love to be hipsters. I prefer to win, to crush the competition. Tip 4- You already heard this: Cut losses, hold winners, be disciplined Are bagholders hipsters, or just weak? Clearly all the "diamond hands" are simply weak cowards that piss themselves at the idea of taking a loss. I do not want to waste too much time on this one, a very easy way to gain a huge advantage over the competition. Just careful beginners with huge rewards and tiny stops. Greedy stops won't lead to great profits, but to death by a thousand cuts. Tip 5- Do not daytrade, day trading is stupid Ah the day gambling hipsters. "I'll be the one in a hundred that makes it". Even roulette and sports betting have better odds. And the 1 in 100 that make it, assuming it's not just luck, make PEANUTS. They'd earn more flipping burgers. As I explained, price action is based on the "daily" chart. Trends last months, they can be divided in smaller moves that last days to weeks. And the price, as I also explained, reacts around these daily chart swings, and daily chart extensions. Another reason why daygambling is so troll. And since day gamblers "close at the end of the day" (vomit) you could be right and lose money! You could be wrong and lose money! So even if they have some edge, they add enormous randomness (and ruin an edge) because there is a time factor we have no control on, they'll close before bed at a completely random price, just because "the day is over". Same concept as the binary option scam that got banned. That's literally gambling! Oh and when they "close at the end of the day" 🤢 they will be making even less than 15 pips, with spreads still the same size. Tip 6- For the noobs: Start with something simple that works and conditions will be added over years I think the best course of action would be to go for the basics, something that is expected to work, going with the trend, not focussing too much on the entry, having a reward better than the risk but not too tight (greedy). And with time improve it. It's like making muscle. If you stop trying to be a hipster and just do what you are been told (don't daytrade, don't hold losers, don't go against the trend), after the initial learning curve (1-5 years, sorry for the dreamers/gamblers) on year 1 you gain 7.5 kg muscle (7.5% returns), year 2 5 kg muscle, year 3-5 5 kg muscle, year 6-20 maintain, maybe small additional gains. Guys like Bill Hwang have shown someone could be a self-made billionaire making 60% a year, so these numbers are just illustrative. The idea is traders develop over time. All the famous ones really got good after several years, and peaked decades after they started. There are no steroids in trading. Ok I guess there are, those would be insider trading, but this isn't easy to access, and a crime. Tip 7- Noobs again: use indicators if you want too, but don't waste time trying to look for indicator edges If you think indicators look good then use them, but don't waste too much time looking for an edge. We'd know if there was one. Don't be lazy, when starting one probably should spend a little bit of time backtesting indicators, and quickly will find out there is nothing of value, no edge based on the indicator itself. And then they can look for something else with a clear head, without wondering "did I miss something". Tip 8- Beginners or intermediate traders that are not yet profitable: Don't aim for huge asymmetric risk to reward You look at charts, there is volatility, in the real or original sense of the word. Trends have plenty of pullbacks, 23.6%, 38.6%, 50%. You might have noticed those were quite significant pullbacks. Not tiny 5-10% pullbacks. So how does a risk to reward of 1 to 20 or 1 to 10 make sense? And how is someone not yet experienced, not even profitable, going to pinpoint exact high and top? I know NO ONE that can be that precise. When George Soros broke the bank of England, he sold at the upper end, and had a large risk to reward. Correct me if I am wrong but he sold for 10 billion, made 1 billion, and said his risk was below 2% (200 million). That was the trade of a lifetime and his reward was 5 times his risk "only". I think he said his hit rate was below 30%. I doubt he typically takes trades with a risk to reward of 20. Or ever. Maybe there is an edge out there, with 100 RR, who knows? But I think it is more reasonable to start with something between 1.5 and 3. Tip 9- Strong trends are the best, pretty obvious but people seem to avoid these On strong trends retail positions are massively on the wrong side, some sources show the percentage of positions and some show more. The very few traders that are in the correct side have tiny gains, out of hundreds of thousands of accounts the people going in the correct direction and holding can be counted with 1 hand. Makes me feel very special. 1 in a thousand. Even 1 in 10,000. It's really simple too. I was tired of try harding 2 years ago, and I just yolo'd in trends, and it worked out. And last year I repeated it, and it worked again! So I focussed on that, and added a strategy to my arsenal. I call it "breakout" but there's really 2 strategies and one of them is not a breakout at all. I wish I started with this, because it is a real goldmine. Not just the easiest, but most productive too. And I'd build the other strats later. When I started I quickly noticed big patterns that flashed in my eyes, once you see them you cannot unsee them, so I went in that direction, obviously. If you're onto something do not spit in the soup! But if you have a choice, let's call it that, I encourage everyone to aim in the direction of trend following! It's well worth it. If you want to make money. For those that would rather be hipsters, well, have fun. Tip 10- Breakouts! Strong trend breakouts! Be patient And final tip, with breakouts in strong trend, they very very often don't go anywhere. Best way to lose money is to fomo. I'd rather miss out. So the trick is to have a condition like this: "It has to go far enough." Or it can go like this: "I want the price to remain above the previous high", that's not realistic, so it could be "I want 2/3 of the price to be above the previous high, and then to double bottom with the high of the bounce above the previous high", which is more reasonable. This is all just my personal opinion, I do not offer refunds. And it is all specific to Forex. Do you own research. With the charts. All praise the charts. Glory to the charts.
Education
by MrRenev
3
How To Trade The Black Crows PatternCriteria • Market in uptrend • Three long black candles (or red) • Open of last two within, or below, prior black real bodies • Each candle closes at, or near, its low Market Implication Top reversal Support or Resistance Not used as resistance How To Trade: 1) Right after completion of 3rd red/black candle place a sell order with stop loss and target. Noted chart example would have taken 4-5 hrs to hit target, with an almost 1:3 risk and reward setup.
Education
by Anbat
Trade Smarter Not Harder!!!On this GBPCAD 4 hour chart what do you see? I see largest moves from 2 a.m. to 10 a.m. ( 8 hours) per day. * This is 4th and 5th- 4 hour candle on chart- you could go to hourly to set entries on any trades. You need to ask yourself how can I catch the daily trend and make 40 pips to 80 pips daily on this pair? Break it down, risk management, lot size, etc... If I use 4 hour chart, can I catch the trend with a larger stop loss and higher target, make sure you have a 1:2 or higher risk reward set up. So, could be 20 pip stop vs 40 pip target or higher per trade. If you look at any 4 hour pair, you will notice when they move and do not move- just wait for trend of daily- do not trade side ways (unless you do that). Also, before trades look for four things: 1) right pair 2) right price 3) right session 4) right time * If three or four of above align up, then think of setting up a new trade.
Education
by Anbat
How to use the Crypto Sniper indicatorJust a simple tutorial on how to use the Crypto Sniper indicator. Rules 1. Wait for the entry Long/Short signal appears 2. Use the ATR take profit or stop loss as a trailing stop or to close your position 3. Use the exits signals to close partially or entirely your position 4. You can enable the additional entries where you can add more to your position following the trend 5. Any market or timeframe will work 6. Specially designed to scalp trade on cryptocurrency futures
Education
by ThiagoSchmitz
2
These 4 Reversal Candlestick Patterns (Know Them)Please google, you tube or PDF all of these following FOUR candlestick reversal patterns, so you can win at trading Forex. (look at them on chart too) 1) Harami candlestick pattern- Bearish or a Bullish Harami, the pattern will contain two candles and the second will be smaller than the first. Harami actually means pregnant woman in Japanese, which makes sense when you consider this signal's shape: the second candle is enclosed within the body of the first. You can think of the second candle as the first candle's baby belly! 2) Pinbar candlestick pattern- A pin bar pattern consists of one price bar, typically a candlestick price bar, which represents a sharp reversal and rejection of price. The pin bar reversal as it is sometimes called, is defined by a long tail, the tail is also referred to as a “shadow” or “wick”. The area between open and close of the pin bar is called its “real body”, and pin bars generally have small real bodies in comparison to their long tails. The tail of the pin bar shows the area of price that was rejected, and the implication is that price will continue to move opposite to the direction the tail points. Thus, a bearish pin bar signal is one that has a long upper tail, showing rejection of higher prices with the implication that price will fall in the near-term. A bullish pin bar signal has a long lower tail, showing rejection of lower prices with the implication that price will rise in the near-term. 3) Engulfing candlestick pattern- The engulfing candlestick patterns, bullish or bearish are one of the easiest of candlestick reversal patterns to identify. Because these candlestick patterns are two-candlestick patterns, they are more valid and are often looked upon as reversal patterns. As with any candlestick pattern, the bullish or bearish engulfing pattern takes more priority depending on the time frame that they are formed on. 4) Doji candlestick pattern- A Doji is a candlestick pattern that looks like a cross as the opening price and the closing prices are equal or almost the same. When looked at in isolation, a Doji indicates that neither the buyers nor sellers are gaining – it’s a sign of indecision. There are different types of Doji candlestick patterns, namely the Common Doji, Gravestone Doji, Dragonfly Doji, and Long-Legged Doji. Before acting on any signals, including the Doji candlestick chart pattern, one should always consider other patterns and indicators. All of these can not be traded ALONE, but need other confirmation too trade. Like at supply and demand, in golden zone of fib (50%-62% area), etc...
Education
by Anbat
Basic Market Maker 24 Hour CyclePlease see hourly example chart of Basic Market Maker 24 Hour Cycle: EurChf (1 Hour Chart)*Learn this 24 hour cycle if you scalp or day trade. 1) Tokyo- consultation 2) London- expand the range 3) New York- trend of day *then price action repeats same cycle over and over..just there are different varieties of this cycle- so retailers need to be aware of these changes, on higher time frames of 4 hour, daily, weekly and monthly. On attached one hour chart: You had three chances to sell EurChf during to days Marker Maker cycle, with proper risk management and stop loss. In a downtrend, sell on a previous buy candle (green or blue on chart)- let price action comes to your trade, never chase a trade.
Education
by Anbat
HOW TO: Trading the WallStreetBets Stonks with Cascading StopsHadn't seen any videos of anyone doing something as silly as this (which of course fits into the WSB philosophy) so thought I'd make a video of it and share it in case it amused or inspired anyone else. Just something I have been having a bit of fun with over the last couple of weeks. You could do this with any broker, but I REALLY like the simplicity of doing this all within TradingView and using TradeStation as the integrated brokerage free broker. Note: You would not do this if you were paying brokerage. What I do is: 1. Create a list of WSB type stocks. 2. Watch in the pre-market to see which ones are getting the attention. 3. Try and buy as early in the move as your broker allows. 4. Add a stop loss a bit below your buy price - eg 5% or so. Nice and tight. 5. As the stock price moves up, start to break down your stop loss into lots of mini stops. Idea is that as the stock moves up, you are moving your stops up, BUT rather than one big stop that gets your whole holding exited, you can place lots of smaller stops (even place some ahead of the price) so that as volatility happens you auto exit some of your position hopefully taking profit along the way. Rinse and repeat. Definitely NOT trading advice. As before, it really is a silly idea, but hey its also a bit of fun for now and seems to work reasonably well for these kinds of stocks that spike big in one day and then start to equally quickly pull back. Might be better to simply buy and hold them, but you never know when they will inevitably come crashing down, and more so which one is going to be the focus of the day. Like and subscribe if you like it. One of those videos you can skip through once you see the initial concept...
NASDAQ:CLOVEducation
by zAngus
104
Some Rules To Improve Your TradingGuild lines For Forex Traders In the following chart, listed some rules that can help investors improve their investment decisions. These guidelines come from experience and not necessarily based on new theories. 1) Know Yourself (scalping, day trading, swinging- what is your personality?) 2) Put Your Ego Aside (FX has a 6 trillion dollar per day rollover in money- it does not care about your ego, so leave it out of trading). 3) Hoping and Praying Do Not Guarantee Success. ( 50% of trading is from neck up other 50% of trading is preparation and planning) 4) Learn To Live With Losses (No system, plan, edge or strategy has a 100% win rate)- use risk engagement always when trading). 5) Never Double Losses( if trade is going wrong direction, do not keep moving stop loss further and further- just expect loss and move on) 6) Know Your Pain Level ( How large is your account? Using 1% or 5% per trade? What is a pip worth of movement? stop loss and target) 7) Diversify The Risk ( You could only trade one FX pair always, or maybe only around 100 ADRs (which I do)- around 8 to 10 per week) 8) Making Money By Trading Is Hard Labor/Work (You can slowly grow account, compounding, lot sizes, etc... but no Lambos without the hard work). 9) Intuition versus Execution of a trading concept/strategy (Demo versus Real trading is 100% different. Why? you have real money). 10) The importance of a trading plan (Keep your trading plan and edge simple- put it all on one 4 x 4 note card)- Simple works in FX trading) 11) Feel comfortable with your trading strategy (back test any strategy at-least 100 times on TV or a FX simulator program) 12) Nothing is more important than discipline (In life discipline and patience will get you further then wanting everything today or yesterday). 13) Value your trading concept (You need to be confident your strategy works even after a string of losses) Remember the following four items before entering any new trades: Right pair, Right price, Right Session & Right Time. Also, win big, win small, lose small but never ever lose BIG.
Education
by Anbat
Do You Use A Systematic Approach?Making money with a systematic approach requires obeying the following rules: *See hourly EurCad example chart (can you do that?) • A systematic trading approach, tested on historical data, should be executed with precision and accuracy (if possible, a computer should generate the signals). • Although we concentrate on pattern recognition, candlesticks, and Fibonacci ratios, other tested strategies should work as well. • The portfolio should have 5 to 10 Forex pairs or products that are all analyzed using the same trading approach. • Long and short signals should be allowed. • Each position should be protected with a stop-loss. • The profit target should be known once the position is entered. • Each product should have a historically good trading range. I Use around 100 ADR pairs (now most are GBP and Eur ones) Each trading strategy should perform in real-time trading according to the philosophy behind the trading concept. For example, a long and flat strategy cannot make money in bear market conditions, but it should make money in bull markets. Find your trading edge and follow a plan for every individual trade you make. Mine includes: scalping or day trading on hourly, 4 hourly or daily time frames, trading from end of Tokyo to end of London (high liquidity and volume), setting stop, enter and take profit on all trades (be patient and not greedy).
Education
by Anbat
3
Power of compounding interest, but why do traders still fail ? Hello everyone: Welcome to this quick educational video on Compounding interest in trading. Today I want to break down the benefits of compounding a trading account while keeping good risk management at bay. The reason why compounding interest is so lucrative is due to investing interest on top of interest, and your trading account can grow much faster than traditional investment returns. The important note is that, by having strict risk management rules, proper trading plan, the account can grow over time. But why do many traders fail to do so ? Let's take a deeper look into this: Many new/beginner traders often get involved in trading due to its profitable potential. However, most of them do not learn about risk management, trading psychology on mindset and emotions. They tend to over trade, over leverage their accounts in hope to double it in a short period of time. This almost always leads to traders to blow their accounts, and re-deposit more money to “chase/revenge” their losses, and the cycle continues. The truth is, growing the account by compounding can eventually double a trading account, but only in time and with strict risk management rules. However, the greed, emotion and mindset often become the tread stone for the traders’ success. It's important to understand that having a consistent, sustainable approach in trading can lead to profits and growth over time, but it's not something that is instantaneous, which is what most new/beginner traders often misunderstood. This can be due to social media, and lots of typical trading “guru” out there promising guaranteed results and easy money. Take a step back and think about compounding interest in time and scale. 5-7.5% return per month may not seem much for a small trading account, but it is sustainable and consistent by not over-risking and over-trading. In time when the account is at a larger scale, a few % return with compound effect in a year can generate very sizable return and growth. In today’s trading industry, there are many prop firms out there that allow you to trade their funds, if you can be consistent and sustainable. Understand these firms are not looking for traders to double their larger capital, rather, to have consistent return and proper risk management. When you can prove you can be consistent to compound a small account, then when you actually do trade a larger account, the % return would be the same. Last Note: Build up the right habits from the start. Your job in the beginning of trading is not to make massive returns, rather to focus on risk management, control emotion, and understand trading psychology. Once all these are checked, then you will be miles ahead of other traders who are still struggling to understand the concept. Any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know. Thank you Jojo
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by jojofang0901
149
BASICS OF SAVING & INVESTMENT | RULES YOU SHOULD NEVER BREAK Debt and living on credit is a universal norm . While the "wisest" among us are trying to persuade themselves how they "hack" the system buying on credit card smartly, the richest among us keep following totally different commandments . You must remember that debt makes you dependent , it makes you submissive to the system. To become truly free and wealthy, here are the simple rules that will change your life if you follow them: 1 - Spend less than you make 2 - Do not save what is left after spending, but spend what is left after saving 3 - Invest the rest in the industries that you understand 4 - Never borrow to invest 5 - Stop trying to get rich quick 6 - Never let your emotions intervene 7 - Patience pays The rules by themselves are very easy and straightforward, however, most of us are not disciplined enough to follow. Learn them, try them, practice them and one day you will become free! ❤️ Please, support my work with like and lovely comment !❤️ It truly helps! Thank you!
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by SignalProvider
18
BASICS OF SAVING & INVESTMENT | RULES YOU SHOULD NEVER BREAK Debt and living on credit is a universal norm. While the "wisest" among us are trying to persuade themselves how they "hack" the system buying on credit card smartly, the richest among us keep following totally different commandments . You must remember that debt makes you dependent , it makes you submissive to the system. To become truly free and wealthy, here are the simple rules that will change your life if you follow them: 1 - Spend less than you make 2 - Do not save what is left after spending, but spend what is left after saving 3 - Invest the rest in the industries that you understand 4 - Never borrow to invest 5 - Stop trying to get rich quick 6 - Never let your emotions intervene 7 - Patience pays The rules by themselves are very easy and straightforward, however, most of us are not disciplined enough to follow. Learn them, try them, practice them and one day you will become free! ❤️Please, support my work with like and lovely comment!❤️ It truly helps! Thank you!
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by SignalProvider
8
The Key To Confident Trading - Focus On What You Can ControlHi Traders, today's topic regarding "The key to confident trading - focus on what you can control." Believe or not, some of the best Traders out there I know, have huge amount of confidence in their own trading profitability. The confidence to stick to your process & strategies, execute your trade, and get yourself through drawdown period are all essential. Focus on your mistakes, is the one and only thing that makes you a better Trader each day. During your journey to a consistently profitable trader, it's crucial to understand what are some of the factors you can control, and what you cannot control. This post is inspired by Mark, a trading mentor. Can 1. Pre-trade/ Post trade Process Have a strict routine and checklist, before you start jumping into the market begin shooting your position all over. Spend the effort to create your daily plan, be prepared, and be sharp clear on what you're looking for. After any closed position, spend the time to review and reflect them, identify common mistakes and methods to leverage them into your advantage. 2. Trading environment Trading requires immense focus, you must have a peaceful trading office that allows you to tackle the market with a calm mindset. 3. Position size Majority of Traders blow up their capital due to improper position sizing and risk management. Protect your capital at all cost, and never allow one position to cause damage to your capital. Treat every trade the same way, trading is a probability game. 4. Entry/ Exit The patience to wait for the market to come to your entry point/ criteria is essential. The same goes to exit, identify your exit plan beforehand, so you're well-prepared for any possibilities. 5. Stop position Knowing when to get out of a trade is equally important as your entries. Identify multiple ways to exit a position, it could be scale out, trail stops, market structure, etc. Learn how to squeeze as much milk from each winning trade and ride them through your daily review. 6. Markets you trade Especially in the beginning of your trading journey, narrow down your watchlist and focus on what you're good at. Less is more, pay more attention to those high quality setups and ignore the rest. 7. Diet, nutrition, sleep Great Traders focus on their diet, nutrition and sleep. If you do not have the discipline to eat and sleep properly, how good would you be at managing your capital? To be your at your peak mental performance, you must first have a healthy physical state. 8. Education & learning Keep grinding and learning everyday. Do not overlook the significance of each day, small steps everyday is what get you towards your goals. Cannot 1. What the market does Most of the losing Traders tend to blame the market or themselves whenever things aren't going according to their plan. Understand the probability and possibility. Focus on your personal performance rather than the market behaviour. 2. When it stops you out The feeling of getting stopped out of a position is unpleasant. But on the positive note, getting stop out of a bad trade avoids you from wasting your time and energy on any unfavourable setups. With a proper SL and Risk Management, several losing trades aren't a big deal, as you're confident that your capital is well-protected. Always stay positive! 3. How many losers you have As a wise Trader, we can't control how many losers we encounter as trading is a game of probability. Instead, what we can do is to focus on get to get ourselves out of a losing streaks, journal and review our mistakes. A healthy equity curve is never like a 90 degree angle, but a slow and steady uptrend-like movement that keeps you in the business as long as you want. 4. How quiet or volatile The volatility of a market is unpredictable & uncontrollable. But the ability to spot them and identify trading potential is important. If the market is quiet, simply stay out of the market if the potential isn't there. "Money is made by sitting, not trading." - Jesse Lauriston Livermore 5. Surprise events Be cautious on major news event (Eg. NFP, CPI , Unemployment Rate, Interest Rate, Government Speech). These major events usually cause some surge in market volatility , stay out of the market to avoid some unpredictable spikes OR slippage. Comment down what's your worst experience trying to 'control' the uncontrollable! "The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading." - Victor Sperandeo Trade safe as usual. Do follow my profile for daily fx forecast & educational content.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDEducation
by TraderNeoh
10
Retail gamblers found the holy grail... To be a rogue trader!I just had a little look into "robots". I've known from reading some of the BIS reports that Forex quants mostly vanished after 2008. But I wanted to go on these FX retail sites that are heavy in the "automated" very short term "trading", which is not actually day trading as they run these programs 24/24 there is no "end of the day so let's stay out of the market for 2/3 of the time to compound profits faster" 😄 Here is how I expect an exchange with an "automated" day gambler would go: My day gambling strategy works muahahaha it does well on backtest for 1 years.   Me: "That's simply because the pair you tested it on has been trending for 1 year you numbskull" Well you just have to apply it in the right conditions!   Me: "With your crystal ball? If you know what they are, why not just manually take 1 trade?" Aha! Because of the power of compounding! Rather than risk 1% to make 5% I will make 2% 25 times.   Me: "Your brain on holiday? Forgot you would also compound spread costs and losses?" Well forget it, if you rly zoom in and can't see anything it looks magical! Doesn't depend on the 1 year trend!   Me: "Then it depends on the 1 month trend?" No! no matter what you say I have an idiotic answer! Usually starts with "You just have to"! I'll throw idiotic answers at you until you get bored and give up on me because I am hopeless!   Me: "Well done I give up" "Thanks for the laugh though" 😂 Take a good friend of mine, UDNCNY: I can tell you for a fact that an "automated strategy" of the kind I am going to describe would work. Don't even need to backtest it. The strategy is as follow: Take about any indicator (RSI, Bollinger Bands, etc). When the price goes down (< 30 RSI or lower band) then goes back up to the middle (RSI 50 or center of Bollingers) you sell. And of course the same on the opposite with buying. Yes that strategy would work, we can quickly eyeball it: In practice this is not even what they do. A risk-to-reward ratio as enormous as puny 1-to-1.8? That's like 1% of retail. Never! What they do is have super distant stops, or no stops. And quickly by looking at USDCNY you understand how they can win. Shorts at a loss are all in a pullback, and the price never goes very far, so by just waiting they will turn into winners at some point. In my example which wasn't the best part of the USDCNY trend, there are 6 short signals, and 3 longs. The longs that are not winners quickly, will "never" recover so they'll take a loss on a far away stop here. But some longs are winners, and most to all shorts are winners, the smaller the reward and bigger distance the stop is, the close to 100% winrate it gets on shorts. To sum up, with their ridiculous high winrate strategies applied in the right conditions: - The vast majority of trades are going to be winners no matter what - Maybe 1/3 of the losers are in the wrong direction and will be big bags - Maybe 2/3 of the "losers" are in the correct direction and eventually will recover These troll retail gamblers are zooming in a flower to the molecule level and wondering why it suddenly went invisible. Must be magic! They have no clue. There is an insect on the flower, that's why you can't see the flower molecule anymore you numbskull. This indicator strategy I mentioned works on a trend, how about a nice thick really gross sideways? Constantly stopped! But have no worries for the retail gamblers have a trick up their sleeve! With a very wide stop such as the risk is 20 times the size of the reward you will keep winning! Hurrah! Martingale! And then it will start trending in the wrong direction and the clowns will get wiped out. And I can assure you, this happens more often than 1 in 20 times 🙂 Now we are getting to my favorite part: The holy grail in the title. I went to myfxbook take a look at system. By default they show you only the ones with positive returns, and many of those are very recent. No no no no no. let me change that filter to at least 1 year of activity, and any returns. What's this? More than half show red returns? Oh my that's a lot of -99% 🙂 Most people quit before getting to -99. How about I pick one of the "winners"? Weird, why are their open trades private? Another one. Private. Another. Private. And another, private again! Oh I found one! TrumpBot. Interesting, that's a lot of red sir. 70 open trades, almost all in the red. USDCAD, EURUSD, USDJPY. All EURUSD are sells, and all the ones ones are buys. He took plenty of short term trades (well long term now as he's been holding the bag for a while) LONG on the USDOLLAR. Oh no! Remember USDCNH? Well these bags go back to early in the USD downtrend. He's been holding for nearly a year 🙂 L - O - S - E - R Just takes 1 L to wipe out these clowns. They can hack some site to make losses vanish, and obviously the dum dums that buy these kinds of systems are too lazy to really do their research so they never notice it, but if it's real money IT'S REALLY GONE. There are some guys that have been struggling to make money for 20 years and have sold robots for 10. Is it cruel if I... roll myself on the floor while I laugh to tears? 🤣 What about all these "private" systems? They're holding bags too? There is a name for this. It starts with an F. And ends with raud. It is the rogue traders specialty. They do a bit more (pros), call them "hedges", manipulate accounting for example, take opposite positions to cut their losses while keeping them secret (unrealized)... Here is a regulator release on famous Karen Bruton, known as "the supertrader". She was made famous by Tom Sosnoff that had her appear on his show. The SEC fined her and a partner to over a million dollar. She lost way more than that. No jail. www.sec.gov Tom Sosnoff is a market maker from the 80s that created a popular trading platform that he sold, and now teaches people to sell option spreads. With no edge or risk it will return little money, like 1%. Karen the Supertrader got superresults by leveraging that strat. Which causes it to LOSE money. Looks like Karen couldn't figure out high school level maths, nowadays this got to be 2nd uni year, the levels has collapsed it's amazing, my sister aiming for med school doesn't even HAVE math classes since 16 year old, science with no maths, genius government. "But kids don't like it", ye so let's make them even dumber than they already are! Yes but Karen convinced investors, and even Tom Sosnoff and his colleagues, that she made money! Ye, just like all the myfxbook trolls. She never closed the losers. Plenty of realized gains, and much larger unrealized losses. Pathetic. And the flip side? Warren Buffett has held unrealized gains on Coca-Cola since 1987. Never held losses very long. Ever. Some uni nerd looked at it. We know because he has to report all positions. Losers (and crooks) hold losers. Winners hold winners. That simple.
Education
by MrRenev
Probability & Trading Trading is a probability game. Every successful trader knows that any trade he executes may bring either profit or loss. In order to assess a statistical advantage of a trading strategy, it is necessary to execute a large number of trades. That is why, it takes a lot of time to understand how efficient your trading is. There will be loss-making trades and you cannot avoid it. However, it is within our power to restrict a negative influence of each loss-making trade on your trading capital. ESSENCE OF PROFITABILITY IN TRADING. Many traders have a general understanding of the probability concept in trading, however, all too often they do not quite understand its essence or do not use it in trading to the full extent. Analysis of probabilities, conducted by such traders, is reduced to analysis of statistics of profitable and loss-making trades for a certain period of time. Quite often this is all they do. Traders do not bother about a thorough study of numbers, which they find in the result of testing trading strategies. However, in order to achieve success in a long-term perspective, it is necessary to understand some basic concepts. Below are two basic ideas, which relate to probabilities in trading: Historical values of the risk-reward ratio cannot be the final measure of future probabilities. These are just forecasted indicators of future probabilities; Even if you have an understanding of what the risk-reward ratio of a specific trading setup would be, you are not one hundred percent sure that the next trade would make profit or loss. The idea of probabilities in trading might confuse you a bit, if you treat it without proper attention. It assumes that your trading strategy was characterized by a certain percentage of profitable and loss-making trades for a selected period of time. However, there are no guarantees that this strategy would be that much efficient in future. You should understand that the market constantly changes and sometimes very rapidly. In any case, the future indicators of efficiency of your trading strategy would differ from the historical values. NOTHING IS KNOWN BEFOREHAND. You should ask yourself, whether historical market data, used earlier for the market forecasting, could be useful for analyzing the current market situation. For example, imagine that you have analyzed efficiency of your trading strategy on the historical data for several years. The market has been in a trend during this period. But what if the market has changed and moved to the consolidation stage? Do you think it makes sense to rely on the past statistics in this case? Can it provide a clear understanding of the future price movement? Probably not. It is also necessary to take into account the fact that you cannot guarantee a hundred percent favourable outcome of the trade. A convincing risk-reward ratio may take-off your guard when executing a new trade, which could result in negative consequences for your trading capital. You do not know for sure what chances for success your next trade has, even if you have a general understanding about what, most probably, would happen in the market. Let’s consider the following situation by way of example. The trading system showed the 1.5 relation of profitable trades to loss-making ones (that is, 60% of the trades were profitable) in a series of 250 trades. However, note that, out of the total number of trades, 100 trades were closed with a loss. It means that, in principle, there could be a situation, when you can have a big series of losses. It is an unpleasant situation, but it really could happen. Namely that is why it is very important to clearly identify risk parameters for each setup, which you trade, and strictly stand by them. This explains why some traders establish a protective rule, which allows execution of a limited number of loss-making trades in a row. The protective rule directly depends on the time of trading and is usually applied to the intraday trades. This rule allows stopping the trading for the whole trading session in case of development of a negative scenario. The reasons of why this rule comes into force could be the following: The best period of time for trading has finished; A certain number of trades have been executed and the trading stops, when a positive result during a trading session has been achieved, independently from their total income; The number of loss-making trades exceeded the acceptable maximum. The ability to manage the trading capital (risk management) is as important in the long-term perspective as the availability of a trading strategy with a trader. The problem is that a human being tends to focus on such things, which are directly in front of his eyes. At some moments, the global vision may become distorted by an immediate urge and belief in a positive outcome of the trade. It takes a pronounced character in those cases when trading decisions are made emotionally and not rationally (in accordance with the risk management rules). Such cases are characterized with a big confidence of a trader in success of an obviously loss-making trade. Namely due to emotional attachment to a trade, a trader often forgets that each trade is just a part of a series of trades. Development of the attachment to a trade looks about as follows: You allow the trade to ‘breathe’ and do not restrict it with a stop loss in accordance with the risk management rules; Then you give it even more space to be more confident that this ‘trade of the century’ will not be closed by a stop loss; At the end of the day you understand that the trade accumulated a significant loss and pushes your profitability curve into the red zone. The most disappointing is when the trade is closed by a stop loss directly before the market reverses towards you and achieves the earlier set goals. This would happen from time to time. Sometimes you yourself would close a profitable trade just before the market reverses and rapidly moves against you. We should note here that the risk-reward ratio and also statistical data in general are not useless, however, everything depends on how we interpret them. People tend to distort or manipulate their perception of reality for supporting their own ideas. Namely this is the reason why it is important to understand the trading psychology. THE MARKET HAS THE UPPER HAND. A trader may forecast any market tendencies, but the market has its own, often different, opinion in this respect. If a trader does not recognize the probability nature of the financial market and is not ready for situations when the market behaves differently from his forecast, he would hardly manage to stay in this business. When a trader starts to think that he knows for sure how one or another market situation would develop, it means that he needs to reconsider his views. Credit: Article by atas net Like and Subscribe. Thank you.
Education
by Deeppoketz
Statistical approach to risk management - Python scriptThis script can be used to approximate a strategy, and find optimal leverage. The output will consist of two columns, one for the median account size at end of trading, and one for the share of accounts liquidated. The script assumes a 100% position size for the account. This does not take into account size deviations for earnings and losses, so use with a grain of salt if your positions vary greatly in that aspect. Code preview cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/592684708551327764/848701541766529034/carbon.png TradingView does not allow posting external links until you've reached a specific reputation, so i can't use the url feature Input explanation WINRATE : chance of winning trade AVGWIN : average earning per winning trade AVGLOSS : average loss per losing trade MAX_LEVERAGE : maximum leverage available to you TRADES : how many trades per account you want to simulate ACCOUNTS : how many accounts you want to simulate the inputs used in the source code are from one of my older strategies, change them to suit your algorithm Source code pastebin.com/69EKdVFC Good luck, Have fun -Vin
VEducation
by Vindruee
The Secrets to Forex & the Boydian Theory of CompetitionI'm assuming if you got this far, you might be smarter than the average Yahoo commentator. No need to rejoice, dear Gulliver, we're still in the tutorial. I have specifically designed this article to be long and heavy, hopefully to demoralize you out of intra-day trading. However, I know that for those who live outside the expected plot, demoralization doesn't work. It's expected that dumb people will make dumb decisions. But oftentimes, smart people make the dumbest decisions. So here it is, a guide on how to make that dumbest decision a bit more survivable. Fortunately, we have the lessons of millions of losers to draw from. Corpses that tell a story. ------------------------------------------- Intra-day is a horror many glimpse but few manage to survive. The chaotic, turbulent, uncertain darkness of the lowest levels of the market are, to be honest, not for everyone. The vast majority of you reading this should not be intra-day trading. Why? Because I don't want to see your net worth (and lifeworth), sucked dry by the vampires in the hellscape. It is the hardest difficulty a retail trader can play the forex game on. You need to sink 1000s of hours into the craft, often as a fruitless exercise in geometry and color. There is no decisive path through this battlefield, this eternal competition. All edges decay. But there is a silver bullet. Just one. And if you know how to polish it, no amount of sulfur will get in your way. Part 1: It's Strictly Business The US military is a big organization, arguably the wealthiest and most powerful out there, as far as we know. A lot of people are paid to think about strange problems or prevent unfavorable events that probably wouldn't happen anyway. They are also paid to figure out how to make things cheaper, more efficient, more interoperable, more redundant, more lethal, more accurate, etc. It's not so different from your typical US30 business. You just trade the profit motive for organized violence (not-in-minecraft kind) and the shareholders for citizens. Powerful men who are responsible for other people are rarely different, despite what the movies and media might tell you. The front of the shop might look different, but don't be naive Kay, the survival motive is the same. So what risk management or market lessons can we learn from this controversial type of big business? What about those guys that think about strange problems? Every once in a while, someone comes up with an interesting idea. And no, I'm not talking about what you or your fellow estronauts think about on discord. Part 2: Patterns of Conflict Col. John Boyd developed the OODA loop theory from a basic white paper called: 'Destruction and Creation' and various presentation decks like: 'Patterns of Conflict.' And while I have an autistic tendency to make military-to-market analogies, it's not important to dive too far into these. Basically: risk and strategy development are cutting edge in the military domain, where the stakes and budgets are highest. And then, oftentimes, it trickles down into lower stakes arenas, like markets or sports. I could write a book on it, but alas, I have better ways to make money. Now, his works were publically obscure but privately influential, eventually their reach extended from military strategy to business and market strategy and even to cybersecurity and legal strategy. Boyd's cycle time management, his observe-orient-decide-act or OODA loop, in particular. It is a simple concept at first. It's so simple it doesn't really seem like an 'invented' idea. It's like processing power in a computer, or latency with an internet connection. If we can do things faster... our process of development, that is making mistakes and correcting them to 'get better,' also speeds up . An AI running a neural net is similar, it makes a lot of mistakes, maybe more than a human would, but because it plays so many games at once or a single game extremely fast, it eventually evolves to defeat humans in the form of competition. If it gets fast enough and far enough ahead or interferes with the processing speed of the opponent, something magical happens. It makes moves we see as 'chaotic' or 'confusing,' which usually end up as traps or baits to draw in the opponent, in retrospect. OpenAI and AlphaGO did this all the time. Eventually the faster equation of mistakes and successes will overcome the equivalent slower equation utilized by our competitor. Three options. /1/ You can make your process faster through technology or intellect, /2/ you can slow the opponent's process down through confusion or force, or /3/ you can do both according to Boyd's theory. The first option is our limit as traders. As far as retail FX trading is concerned, that is as much of the theory that can be applied due to the lack of boutique data feeds from prime brokers and the nature of the market (and law) itself. As an institution, you can go further. You can load up on computational resources, get closer to the source of the exchanges/interbank transactions to reduce latency, scalp top talent away from competitors, produce FUD in the media (the purpose of CNBC), etc. In fact, in other markets with other tools, by applying the OODA loop you could abuse the order book and confuse and bait the HF algo strategies. Do this well enough and you just might start a flash crash. Front-running, spoofing, layering, and others were second-order techniques of applied OODA loop strategy (those 'overpowered' methods are now banned). It was a trillion-dollar lessons-learned exercise. Part 3: A Strategy for the Weak But the idea is too widespread and too evasive to be killed off by a few unethical and abusive strategies. It's like the scientific method reformatted into a competitive/survival environment. You could argue its two or more scientific methods in contest with each other, with a game theory like logic balancing outcomes. A competitive decision cycle. Virtually every successful business uses a derivative or parallel version of cycle time management. A parallel version of it was developed as the Shewhart cycle, and inspired production theory in Japan that would eventually revolutionize manufacturing for a globalized, value-added world. And of course, it wasn't just tested in the field of profit, but in the field of battle, where competition and risk management is a matter of life and death; which are very expensive affairs. It would underpin the design logic of all future combat aircraft. It led to the swift and decisive victory in Gulf War I (the only swift and decisive victory any conventional military had after WWII). It was built and inspired by the central lessons of thousands of years of warfare 'upsets.' It's success, its value, is self-evident by it's wide adoption in competitive fields and by competitive entities. It's now synonymous with the idea of a "lean victory." When we talk about the resource called Time and the resource called Information, the OODA loop is about managing these to competitive excellence while disrupting your opponent's management of those resources. So why wouldn't we also apply it to trading? Part 4: Fast Transients Personally, what I like the most about this theory applied to markets is its crossover with technology. Competition normally happens at the speed of thought, and technology is a type of thought machine (it translates thoughts). Technology is inherently synergistic precisely because it improves calculation time, observation time, and the overall speed of the cycle itself. Technology is always improving these things, so the theory gets stronger over time. This is also why, for your intra-day future, you need to have time and/or money set aside for R&D, so you will be on top of new indicators or trading technologies. It's also why, in the long run, using algos to assist in your trading efforts will likely be very important, primarily for intra-day. I use a comprehensive algo-run dashboard to manage my intra-day positions. I spend a lot of time on counterparty analysis*, it's the 'unit of analysis' in a market competition from a scientific perspective. It's what shapes my broader market theories that manage my portfolio beyond forex. Reducing it down to something simple, how the human mind works in a competitive environment, the psychology of profit-seeking. Is what I have been mentioning throughout the entire series. Who is buying this shit, why is someone selling me this shit, what are these boomers thinking, how are they making money, what is influencing their decision-making... Etc. But technology changes that. It's another brain, another filter. The market war is far less human than it once was, but the biases from humans are still plugged in, the humans in the loop. Or, are they? *(and if you followed GME, you would see the idea of punishing siloed short counterparties independent of absolute stock valuation has become popular in the retail world) Today, just like your social media, the market is filled with less-than-human entities, monsters... vampires. Not just because of technology doing the thinking and trading, but because of how it influences the human mind to favor commodifying everything and thereby justifying dehumanization. It is a very dangerous process at the forefront of our increasingly unsatisfactory and disenfranchising materialism-driven world. I'll talk a little about that in the last article where I explain the Pigovian-like risk you inherit as a trader. Part 5: Entity List Now, unfortunately, because trading is a many many player game, and most of the biggest players have fiduciary responsibilities (on paper, which isn't worth much these days), it is hard to take full advantage of Boyd's method unless you have access to higher market-level data and access to massive resources like a corporate entity. For the rest of you, you will have to translate the competitive environment into units of analysis or battlefields to survive. Sessions become battlefields, newsflows become battlefields, pairs become battlefields, etc. You will compete against entities in these battlefields. The moment you enter into the market, this plane of materialism, you are in competition with these entities, both real monsters (other real players), and synthetic monsters (algos, AI, MM). Risk management is impossible without accepting this truth, that you will always be in competition in the market, no matter how large or small or where you positon may lie. You can't hide from the fight, you can't wish it away, you can't pray its fangs are small. You can only prepare for limited certainty and adapt to unlimited risk in the long run. That way, when you do get scared, it'll be over the size of your new house instead of a strange French accent over the phone. Intra-day is the application of everything laid out so far, with the addition of the Boydian time cycle method and important psychological revelations about sessions and open interest. This method pushes your trading timeframe into as short of a unit of time as reasonable, or fast enough to be competitive against your peers. The better application of your time resources. It also demands the observation/gathering of information resources as widely and as quickly as possible (Boyd's rapidity and variety). And ultimately the processing of these two resources synergistically. This is the rapid transient mindset. It's increasing your initiative as a capability. You wouldn't spec a character in a turn-based game that gets fewer turns. You want more turns per encounter. In this sense, the familiar forex conclusion is something like a fractal. Where you are looking for a similar occurrence but on a smaller timeframe, allowing you to act earlier and more often on information. But that isn't entirely accurate. I used the classical mechanics vs quantum mechanics example in the 3rd article. Classical is more structured and stable, while quantum lives and dies many times before producing something significant (or maybe its really a matter of frame of reference). The point of intra-day is similar, you want to take advantage of the uncertainty, the volatility, as possible preparation for a long-term outcome. You want to think of these timeframes (15m, 5m, 1m, seconds) as FASTER, not smaller or lower. Think faster. Everything is faster, and that includes you. If it sounds hard, it's because it is. You're only human after all. Part 6: Entropy Investments You are looking for the possible start of a CPG/EX/FLOW/SEA event, AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE. That is, on the higher timeframe the process will play out, but the purpose of moving to faster timeframes is to jump in on these 'potential beginnings' because if you jump in the potentials as early as possible your risk/reward is highly dysgenic. In other words, you will have a lot of losers, which is a good thing. Remember, openAI plays more games and has many more stupid lost games than a normal player would. Let me explain this in a way where risk management meets my energy ecosystem concept from the prior articles. With an equilibrium system, you will have a higher loser frequency of trades (the number of trades) with small individual account loses, while earning a lower winner frequency of trades, but the ones that win will win big. In equilibrium, it will all balance out to a net account zero before fees and commissions between traders with edge and those without. However, markets allow competitive systems within the master ecosystem. With competitive edge, you will have a high loser frequency of trades, with even smaller losses, while maintaining a few very big winners, similar to the 90/10 rule in boomer investing. In other words, your trading system must facilitate an environment where you can lose many of your trades while still capturing significant moves on the few upside wins you entertain. That is the endstate I have found to be most valuable for intra-day trading. It's the silver bullet of return patterns. You can have a small account size, your downside risk is smaller (compared to long-term trading), and your upside potential tracks daily volatility more effectively than long-term trading ( we will talk about specific RR ratios and RoR based on Monte-Carlo simulations in the next article). The closer your trading system tracks volatility, generally the more profit you will make IF your strategy is competitive. Inversely, what is more predictable = is less competitive, and the potential for edge generation is harder to fulfill. Remember, the Ecosystem Tycoon stands still and dips his hand into the flow of cash transactions. You will profit most where the flow is strongest (the most volatile and liquid). For instance, if USDJPY starts the week at 110.00 and ends the week at 108.00, it moved 200 pips on your competitive long-term tradng strategy. But with intra-day, it may have moved from 110 to 111 on Tuesday and then down to 108 by Friday. That volatility (400 pips worth) can be turned into more profit, AND, with proper risk management, involves lower account risk per trade. Despite the pair pip movement outcome being the same as the weekly long-term strategy (IE, where it started on Mon and ended on Fri). Note that the long-term account risk differential with intra-day can be reduced with currency options and futures, which we will visit in the next article, but it is hard to replicate the gross available pip totals from intra-day trading because European options were designed for multi-day strategies, along with other issues. Capitalizing on volatility sounds nice, and operating on faster timeframes to capture that volatility sounds nice, but how do you analyze any of this? How do you find the optimal (competitive) periods of volatility, how do you track the swings for more pips, etc? You could try some thinking on your own, or you could keep outsourcing your thinking to me. It's okay, most people do it, just look at Reddit. Part 7: Openly Interested I have found through my own research that session psychology is just another way of classifying structured open interest and volume behaviors. I mentioned prior that counterparty analysis was important to understanding the market from a scientific and competitive standpoint. Open interest behavior is a component of counterparty analysis. It is the magic to intra-day that carry interest is to multi-day. Problem. Technically open interest isn't measured by most brokers in the FX market, but it does exist somewhere because forex is a derivatives market with a futures and commodity market. To understand open interest: it is a measurement for the occurrence of multiple investors or entities converting cash into new market contracts or settling those contracts back into cash. In other words, it's how many contracts have been created via cash. It's like going to the casino and converting your money into house chips for gambling. When those chips are 'created' open interest is created. So if players created 100 house chips for the day, then the open interest is 100 for that day. They will all have to be settled by close of business (brought down to 0, because chips cannot usually leave the casino). When those chips exchange hands between players, volume occurs (the occurance of transactions between players). So all the instances of one player losing chips to another player during poker count towards the volume total (which will usually be greater than open interest). Keep this explanation in mind (and refer back to the Ecosystem Tycoon article) when I explain sessions from a human psychology standpoint. Part 8: Session Psychology Each session has a psychology, this is one of the 'secrets' to forex I find to be significant and relatively underexploited despite being self-evident in the trading universe. Entities within the NA session, entities within the EU session, entities with the ASIA session; they all possess patterns of behavior that result in price action outcomes that are consistently predictable. In my review of the topics, these patterns come from psychological biases tied to civilizations and institutions. With civilizations, the majority of consumption/import nations exist in NA and EU (current account deficit bias), and the majority of saving/foreign investment/export nations exist in Asia (current account surplus bias). (Keep in mind that this is changing a bit with AUD as a vassal currency for CNH/CNY, but not just yet.) This impacts the flow of money and risk-taking behavior at the market macro level. It creates a market-driven partially by psychology at the highest level. Momentum patterns are more common during the EU/NA overlap, while ASIA is correctional (mean reversion) but often overcorrects (or anticipates) and withdraws to wait for EU to start. EU (mainly through London) fills large positions and take substantial bets on the overall market outcomes for the day (which occurs when NA comes online, or if they receive enough information about global macro to preempt NA coming online). It's like buying at par value and hoping to sell at premium. If the bet is correct, the forex pair will have a significant (usually 70-110 pip move for the day), if the EU bet is incorrect, there will be sharp reversals until NA produces enough information clarity. It's important to think in terms of cash flow as open interest and vice versa. When the NA markets open, the stock market and other major asset markets open as well, these need cash to facilitate transactions. Credit, risk, leverage, and other major financial currents move during the business day. The financial economy operates under somewhat traditional office hours and this includes the release of performance reports or audits which will influence valuation, legal events, and dealmaking. Most importantly, Jerome Powell and the rest of the Federal Reserve are awake and plotting the death of the US dollar. As a result, the movement of these markets more accurately tracks the overall economy, the underlying, and the biggest demand economy in the world. As a result, currency directional bias will usually become clearer and more stable as it now has a reliable reference point from these flows. This is partly why you see stable and smooth trends during this period. The NA session isn't just another session with its own quirks, it's the demand session of the global market 24 hour cycle. Most price action up to that session is just prediction or anticipation of how the demand session will interpret global macro events. Of course, there is still plenty of money to made during that price action\ prior to the NA session. It is important to understand that it's not as simple as LONDON BREAKOUT, though this the right line of thinking. Trading strategies need to match each session's behavior. And from a higher standpoint, that the opportunities to enter long term trend-based trades are found in the NA/EU overlap, while reversals and compressions are found in the ASIA and LON session periods. Both at the intra-day level and for your multi-day strategies. In addition, during ASIA/LON, the center of price gravity and its extremes will be more valuable; but FLOW and SEA will be more valuable for NA/EU overlap. So your momentum/breakout trading will work better during EU and especially with the NA/EU overlapped session, while your reversal or DCA etc strategy will perform better during ASIA and into LON. Now, you want to think of the transition between sessions as decision points, where the behavior of the upcoming session will have to summon the collective decision-making of market participants to decide on the course of action. So if you run a reversal strategy from ASIA/LON you can expect to hold (usually 8-12) until a decision is made on whether the price will return to the center of price gravity or if a NA/EU trend will begin (these are the 150-300% ADR events usually driven by huge macro stories like CBs/stimulus/brexit/tariffs that ride a lot of newsflow). Thus you need to be abreast of outside influence on the minds of market actors to evaluate if you close your position in that 8-12 window or if you hold for a huge reversal opportunity during NA/EU (a reversal due to the start of a new major trend). Normally, the ASIA/LON period will contain a correction related to the prior day's NA/EU session or will have a mini-move and subsequent correction before 8. In this decade, there will be new economic challenges for the eurozone and the ECB, so the EU standalone market session may develop new behaviors and we might see more volatility. It's important to understand the shifting behaviors of these sessions as macro and geopolitics shapes hearts and minds. All this surface area can be hard to follow, so here is a summary below. Part 9: Execsum The endstate is finding and translating forex order flow into patterns, and then generating edge by reading and reacting to those order flows faster than the tail end of losers. It is pit sentiment or floor dynamics as best represented on a chart, a type of 2D battlefield. The endstate goal is an operationalized effort drawn from the Ecosystem Tycoon analogy. Here are the major themes and connected key concepts within that endstate: Open interest demand mechanics = vol & compression regime mechanics Open interest is created by outside 'viral' vectors grabbing the attention of investors (people with cash interested in the market) and when sentiment is shifted within that cohort (who are now interested in opening long contracts or short contracts) Open interest can break a compression regime by spoiling a careful equilibrium between traders currently in the market. They were formally in a balanced position until new cash tipped the scale. Open interest can create strange PA behavior resulting in new trading performance risks from high ATR and vol. OI is understandable only through the lens of newsflow and macro research related to the viral vector influencing investors; thereby making it a significant threat to technical systems dependent on historical PA information. However, at the start or end of the business day (regardless of rollover), open interest is commonly settled and the contracts are closed and converted into cash. That money or energy leaves the price discovery system and the instrument usually returns to lower volume after finding an equilibrium. These cycles are predictable and occur within the session unit of analysis. They also have different behaviors by session. These mental frameworks are necessary for effective vol capture, especially at intra-day resolutions. Tailoring or selecting technical systems to match session behavior and the open interest driver maximizes potential vol capture. Now, there are few more important tools and methods you need to have to stay true to a Boydian trading strategy at the intra-day level. Part 10: The Crafts There are other important points, particularly regarding technology and how to improve your trading speed. Follow these crafts and at the very least, you will have a chart checkered with good and bad outcomes. Instead of just all bad, like your default life setting. VPS, and a backup instance of your broker on your phone (with a data subscription). This is insurance that pays off in the long run. Now, it won't matter too much unless your intra-day strategy is fully automated (which I don't recommend anyway). Either way, phone backup is useful. Position management and style is also key from a Boyd perspective. Particularly, the importance of splitting a position up into multiple entries. AT LEAST 2; a conservative TP and an aggressive TP. Personally, I like to use a statistically derived TP (like a common ATR/momentum hit dependent on the pair, IE 9 pips on the EN versus 4 pips on the EU), I like to use a covariant-like technical target (S/R level, psychological level, the center of price gravity, etc; in other words, a combination of technical targets with similar natures) and I like to use a TIME based target (closing towards the end of a session or after a scheduled event occurs). I recommend a combination of all or at least 2 of the three. In addition, utilizing order implementation algos can go a long way in this effort. Not as important for the multi-day traders, algos increase your entry and exit optimization with technology (Boydian considerations) for intra-day trading. In fact, this was the original inspiration and justification for algos, to assit in the efficient use of bid/ask (pit dynamics) for the heavy bags of wall street. Your SL should be consistent with the session, strategy, and pair. Ideally based on ATR, but I would recommend an SL at least twice as large as your conservative TP. I will explain the risk logic of this in the next article and how it can be more profitable than the inverse. Finally, you need to be willing to use MARKET orders. There is no reason to not use market orders in the most liquid market on Earth. Unless you are trading 30 lots or more in a single order entry, you will not influence price unfavorably. In addition, if price slides or moves.. this is good, this behavior is good for your strategy, which should be based on volatility tracking and capture. Speed is paramount, you can't wait around for hours to have an order fill at your dream price level. As such, LIMIT has less value depending on your strategy, but it can serve a purpose with forward planning a large position. STOP orders make sense for SL exits but not for initial entry. If you don't want to manually close your orders or you have way to many orders to manage manually, you will need an algo dashboard or a trailing algo SL. Remember, that a third party algo is effectively a system that creates virtual orders, they are not a broker order like a market or limit until the final step of the process. You are solely liable for the operation of the algo. Other order types are irrelevant without prime broker access and are really only useful in the share market or markets with low volume and hidden LPs. Leverage should be used as a exponential for conviction. Meaning, the better your system or prediction, the more money you should be willing to risk. This will be discussed in greater detail in the next chapter, but forget everything you have heard from the webinar retail salesmen and their 2% margin religion. Leverage is favorable in forex because retail traders (and common people in general) cannot get leverage of a similar degree for other assets , or to be honest, anything else. This is very important from an investment standpoint. Your principle goal as an investor is to increase your purchasing power, and leverage is one of the best tools to achieve this. However, you must never forget the other ancient boomer wisdom. "Only 3 things can ruin an honest man: ladies, liquor and leverage." I would also note that they all start with an 'L' Part 11: Newsflow Again As mentioned in a previous article, news trading might be best achieved with binary options, but otherwise, you want to open prior and close after. At least TWO minutes of distance both ways. If the news is a surpise, price can move forcefully for the next 4 hours or until the end of the session. I would also recommend opening a LONG and SHORT position of equal sizes instead of utilizing a stop loss (if your account supports this capability). The idea being you would close them each in profit during the volatility spikes in price action or simply close at a later point at a net zero result if volatility does not occur. That would be the Boydian approach. IF this isn't an option due to some FIFO issue with your broker (you can always bypass this with multiple brokers), just use a smaller position size than you normally would, and increase your SL to something substantial (80 for low ATR pairs, and 120+ for high ATR pairs). I don't recommend this final option unless you are accomplished in reading and understanding the global macro eventspace. As mentioned in the Happening Default Swaps article, news trading really only makes sense for taking profit and/or exiting an older position. It is rarely wise to use it to open new positions, despite the volatility potential. You don't want to be all flow and no balance. Data feeds matter. Information processing speed, etc. You need the fastest sources of info, you need it processed (ideally by specialized experts). Processing it yourself is fine if you are very familiar with the content. You may have to pay money for this, but it will generally be worth it (especially in time-sensitive intra-day) from a risk management perspective. It's like hiring an expert. You aren't a corp, but you can get the 'consulting' value from these experts (at a much cheaper price). Dont go chasing sources that are repeating other sources, it can present added value of knowledge but it's really just disguised as redundent information. Just go directly to the source. And not the one at the center of the galaxy. Part 12: Outsourcing research A psychological edge you need to have is the willpower to conduct your own 'capex' or development on a consistent schedule. The more you do, and the higher quality it is, the greater edge you will generate in market capture knowledge. Your ability to dip your hand into the flow of cash. While this isn't limited to intra-day, intra-day is where the market evolves FIRST, and often at the fastest rate. Thus you need to mindful. Always looking for better versions of indicators you possess. Or ways to set SL more efficiently and accurately. Or selecting better data feeds or newsflow sources. Most of what we've covered so far is more abstract than the average fluoride brain would hope for. That there must be a signal service, or an indicator, or some universal function that can be realized into a specific technical system. The reality is more of a mindset and an assumption that you need to spend more resources on upgrading your 'technology' and your 'time-management.' And that the sessions themselves are excellent units of analysis to apply the time-management and decision-making initiative because of open interest dynamics. How do you study or gather information about the current or upcoming session more efficiently? How do you execute orders more efficiently? How do you become faster? The more information you have and the faster you react to it, the more money you can withdraw from the trillion-dollar liquid market bank account. To explain it in factor investing terms, the Boydian mindset is the key to vol tracking and vol capture, which is what intra-day offers. You want to ride high volatility profitably or at least react favorably to high volatility better than your competitors. To summarize the rest: sessions have vol behaviors, predictable, but not predictable enough that they aren't also competitive. Driven by vast macro psychological and market influences, these patterns will occur again and again. You can build a strategy to match each session if you trade intra-day, but you must be faster in action and faster in information processing. Your positions will live and die many times before a long term position may exist in the market, so adjust your risk management accordingly. You can use your intra-day strategy to leverage into a long term position. It's really that simple. I offered the behavior/psychological solution (the assumptions about session behavior), and a few other specific solutions to make your time and decision intersect more efficient. But there is always something better on the horizon. And you need to chase it if you want to stay competitive, and therefore maintain edge; which is your career margin of safety. You shouldn't get too greedy, because hogs get slaughtered. Unless of course, we're talking Orwell's farm. Part 13: Silver is for monsters Listen, little Helsing, intra-day trading is all about surviving the flood of spectral horrors in the night. It is the true nightmare difficulty of this market game. These vampiric entities in the market are monsters both in scale and in appetite. They operate on attrition and superior firepower; a strategy you can never replicate or use against them as a retailet. They are immortal in that regard. Some are soulless institutions, others are lifeless algorithms. And, even if your spirit is strong, your flesh is still weak. They will take everything from you, without even recognizing your face, your effort, or your dreams. Though some, I presume, are good people. I want you to remember on your intra-day journey, if you eat, eventually you get eaten. That's the rule. Ultimately, this kind of flat and shrouded market takes what would normally make someone regret or question his behavior, and removes it from the equation, masking it as invisible and out of the way. It's a distortion. It's a spiral of dehumanization. It makes it easier to ruin people, who could be as relatable as your brother or your neighbor. That is the tragedy of this efficient flat competition. You will be on the recieving end of this story more often than not. That is why I arming you as best as possible, so that, at minimum, you can defend yourself against these vampires. Your silver bullet is the applied OODA loop, the market-realized outcome of maneuver warfare, the competitive management of time, information, and decision making. In essence, it is a strategy for the weak to win against the strong. In the first place I would never recommend/promote a battle like that. I have a nonzero responsibility for your success or failure. But off the record, if you choose to play on this difficulty, I strongly recommend you wait for my final article where I discuss benchmarks and 'grand strategy' before you go all in. No need to be impatient, trust me. The monsters on the other side of the screen will wait for you.
INDEX:BDIEducation
by CountofCoins
2
Risk per unit (R) & ExpectancyIn this article, we will expand the notions presented in the first part of the series. If you haven’t read the first part, you can check it out below in our related ideas section. We define risk as to how much you’ll lose per unit of your investment if you are wrong about the position. We called this in the first part initial risk (1R) . All your profits and losses should be related to your initial risk. Example 1: You buy a stock at $100 and decide to sell it if it drops to $80. What’s your initial risk? The initial risk is $20 per share. So, in this case, 1R is equal to $20. If you buy 10 shares then your total risk is $200. R represents your initial risk per unit. Example 2: You want to do a foreign exchange trade with a $10k account, selling the EURUSD. Let’s say that $100 USD is equal to 77 Euros. The minimum unit you must invest is $10,000. You are going to sell if your investment drops by $1k. What is your risk? What’s 1R for you? It may sound complex, but it is very simple. If you’d close your position if it drops $1k from $10k to $9k, then your initial risk is $1000 and that is equal to 1R. R represents your initial risk per unit. Let’s say that you have noted on your trading journal the following trades: 1. 400 CSCO at $23 - R $1000 - P&L $2,317 2. 80 IBM at $80 - R $1000 - P&L ($813) 3. 300 VLO at $50 - R $1000 - P&L $3,413 4. 400 HRB at $51 - R $1000 - P&L ($1,531) The R multiples for these trades are: 1. 2.32 R 2. -0.81R 3. 3.41R 4. -1.53R The average R for your system is: 0.84R Expectancy really refers to the mean (average) R-multiple of your system. As a trader, if you want to be successful you need to start quantifying your trading performance. You should always calculate your R-multiple and it’s average (expectancy). The expectancy of your system is the average of the R-multiples (both positive and negative) of your system . It tells you what you can expect in terms of R, on average over many trades. This information is pretty straightforward and easy to grasp. In our example above if we have a system with an expectancy of 0.84R and we risk 1% per trade we should expect a profit of 0,84% per trade. After 100 trades you should be up 84%! The average however is not the total picture! To understand how much your system can deviate from the expectancy, you must not only know the average R-value, you must also know the variability of R or standard deviation. The variability will tell us how far away from the mean most samples are likely to be. It would be great if all samples were at mean, but this is never the case because it would mean that there is no variability to the sample. Now you truly understand why the 3rd and 4th golden rules that we mentioned in the first article are very important! Trade with care. If you like our content, please feel free to support our page with a like, comment & subscribe for future educational ideas and trading setups.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by financialflagship
20