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Educational

📃 Trading plan 📃 ☝🏻The basis of any action on the market is a well-designed trading plan (TP). 👉🏻The basic rule is never trade without a plan, and when you have done TP, never break it. Work without a plan leads to randomness and spontaneity of actions subject to emotions.🙅🏻‍♀️ ❗❗Before opening a position, you must determined :❗❗ 📌position opening price 📌open position size 📌stop loss order 📌take profit order 👉🏻That's necessary in order to determine the possible risk / win ratio. ⭐⭐A trading plan should uniquely determine the actions of a trader in two scenarios: 1. Price moves opposite the open position 2. Price moves towards an open position ❗ A trading plan is drawn up before a position is opened, when a trader is in a balanced emotional state and can adequately think. ❗ After opening a position, you should follow the trading plan very accurately and not allow yourself to make changes to it during the course of trading. ❗ After closing the position, an analysis of the results is carried out, the optimality of actions is evaluated, and conclusions are drawn for the future. ❗ Trading does not end when you close your position. ❗You must analyze it and learn from it. ❗ After closing a position, many players forget about it and start looking for the next deal. ⚡Don't miss the essential elements of the path to the level of a professional trader - analysis of the past and introspection.⚡ Write down your trading plan. Write down the reasons for the exit and what you did right and what is wrong. You will receive a history of your transactions and thoughts in pictures. This journal will help you learn from past experiences and discover gaps in your thinking. 💪🏻Don't forget about self-development!!!!💪🏻 💙If my post was interesting for you, don't forget to put me like and write your thought!!!💛 Your Rocket Bomb🚀💣
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by RocketBomb
20
🔰Channel is an element of technical analysis🔰 Let's recall my previous TA ideas and more 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻 T oday we are talking about channels. Come on💪🏻 Technical analysis defines a “channel” as a corridor in which a price chart moves limited by the support line below and the resistance line above. There are three types of channels: 📌bullish channel 📌bearish channel 📌sideway or range (flat, trendless) The channel breaks, when the price breaks through either support or resistance. Breaking resistance on the bull channel is a good signal to buy. For a bear channel the opposite is true. With the side channel, the signal is less strong. If we break through support on the bullish channel and resistance on the bearish, we get a weak sell / buy signal (it is better to get confirmation from other indicators). In addition, you can play inside the channel, observing two rules: ⭐the longer the price moves in the channel, the more likely it is to exit it; ⭐play better towards the main trend. If you like my edu posts, put me like and subscribe on me💪🏻❤ Stay in touch💋 Your Rocket Bomb🚀💣
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by RocketBomb
16
How to identify global trendHello Traders! To find out if price is in bullish or bearish global trend a half year ACD should be applied. Only half yearly Initial Balance can do this. Conditions: If weekly price stays primarily BELOW HALF YEARLY OPENING RANGE (INITIAL BALANCE - IB ) AND in-between IB and lower A-PIVOT = BEAR MARKET If weekly price stays primarily ABOVE HALF YEARLY OPENING RANGE (INITIAL BALANCE - IB ) AND in-between IB and upper A-PIOVOT = BULL MARKET If price moves into the opposite zone and manages to stay (!) there for a few weeks (time factor, spike is not enough) then a trend change is on the way in the next half year. As you can see EURUSD´s macro trend is BEARISH and we already broke half yearly A-PIVOT. Fisher describes Opening Range ( IB ) as FULCRUM. It holds the market. Without it things collapse. And as you see Half Yearly A-PIVOT breakouts are MASSIVE! One can not detect those by applying yearly opening ranges. Also here, you can often observe similar loop post-breakout patterns as with yearly A breakouts. I hope this technique will save you from many loosing trades! God bless! GOOD LUCK!
Education
by ICFX
🌀 Cycle Theory and Wave Analysis 🌊👋🏻Hi guys. 💋Well, let's continue develop ourselves???💪🏻 Today I would like to tell you about the 🌊wave analysis🌊 ☝🏻😉For those, who have recently joined, I would like to say, that we are studying technical analysis.💪🏻💪🏻 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻Below you can find my previous educational ideas.👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻 Ok, now let's start from the few words about theory of cycles💪🏻 🌀The theory of cycles is more developed at the theoretical than at the practical level, and deals with cyclical fluctuations not only in prices, but also in natural phenomena in general. Almost all methods of technical analysis fit into this classification.✔ 💥 If you wanna be successful trader, you need to understand this method of analysis 💥 ☝🏻 The trend (impulse waves) has a 5-wave structure (waves are indicated by the numbers 1,2,3,4,5, A, B, C ) and consists of impulse waves and correction. 📌 Impulse Waves 1,3,5 - longer than correction waves - show the direction of the trend 📌 Correction Waves 2 and 4 - has a 3-wave structure (a-b-c) - show the direction opposite to the current trend ☝🏻 1st, 3rd, 5th impulse waves have a 5-wave structure of their subwaves. Correction waves (2 and 4) have a 3-wave structure and are denoted by A-B-C. 📌 Signs of a trend reversal in terms of wave analysis are: - finite diagonal triangle - extended 5th wave - truncated 5th wave 👉🏻 The 2nd and 4th waves are corrective. The movement on these waves takes the form of the following correction models: - zigzags (5-3-5) (Zigzags) or simple (zigzag) correction - planes (3-3-5) (Flats) or flat (flat) correction - triangles (3-3-3-3-3-3) (Triangles) or triangular correction - double triples and triple triples (combined structures) - incorrect correction In fact, wave analysis has nothing to do with the market. At least in the modern world. This theory once worked, but not now. ☝🏻Although it attracts a lot of people with its simplicity and visibility. Now you will not find two wave operators, that would give the same market assessment and forecasts. So many directions and methods of wave analysis have formed today. Wave analysis is an artificially invented method for predicting markets, that is, not natural even for human behavior. 💥If you use it, then be extremely careful. To say, that wave analysis doesn't work is too subjective. Each for himself decides what and how to use. 😆Right or wrong - the market will judge by adding or taking money to the account.😆 🤔I hope I have clearly explained you my vision of wave analysis, if you are interested, you can study this method more deeply.💪🏻💪🏻 😸Subscribe and don't forget to put like to my enthusiasm, I try for you😉😉😉 Stay with me🌞 Kiss You 💋 Your Rocket Bomb🚀💣
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by RocketBomb
5
💪🏻 TIPS FOR SUCCESSFUL TRADING 💪🏻It's Sunday,🌞🌞🌞 the Forex market is giving up 🤗, and the Cryptocurrency market is behaving strangely,👀 so it's time for selfdevelopment.💪🏻💪🏻💪🏻 ☺😚Let me try to give YOU some advice from my own experience, maybe they will be useful for you 💙💙💙 Let's Go🙃🙃🙃 🗝KEY ERRORS OF THE MARKET PLAYER🗝 🚩Waiting for a great deal and big profits 🚩put stop losses 🚩Attempts to catch up with the market 🚩Emotional trading 🚩Constant desire to trade 🚩Rejection of losses and attempts to immediately recoup 🤗TIPS FOR RIGHT PSYCHOLOGICALLY TRADE🤗 📎Chart levels at which you will enter into the deal and exit a position. 📎When you enter a position, all further market's movements you see through the prism of your position 📎The next movement of the price can make change your tactics. 📎Having analyzed your deals with trading plan, you (with high probability) understand - that most unprofitable transactions were outside the trading plan; - that you are not included in the potentially profitable and planned transactions. 📎Remember these moments the next day. 📎Try to make less unplanned deals and more planned. 📎Look into eyes of your losses. 📎Don't count lose as the result. 📎Failures will always be. ❤IMPORTANT❤ As soon as you close unprofitable transaction - stop thinking about it and focus on the next entry. NEVER make a deal right after something read heard. Almost always, these deals are unprofitable. ⚡EMOTIONAL SET⚡ ⚠Don't try to trade emotionally. ⚠you have made more than two losing trades - spend the rest of the time to analyzing the reasons. ⚠If the reason in you - take a timeout. ⚠Don't get euphoric after a series of profitable deals. That's as bad as depression. ⚠Always be determined to make money, not to lose it. I hope you were interested☺☺☺ Stay with me💋💋💋 I came up with a lot of interesting things for you🔥🔥🔥 Like and subscribe 😚😚😚 YOUR Rocket Bomb🚀💣 If you interested in my previous idea, look here 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by RocketBomb
20
HOW TO recognize TRADING RANGE - TREND is your FRIEND!Hi traders, I didn´t open a trade yesterday, so I decided to record an educational video for you. My favorite topic (and very hard to implant for many traders) is TRADING RANGE. The most most most crucial ability is to recognize if you are in a Trading Range or in a Trend. Every stage of the Market requires a different approach! You can find a lot of complicated tools on the web that describes Ranges... Why make things complicated? My tool is simple - Swing Highs and Lows. They tell us everything about the market. I focus on the theory followed by examples on the SPY ( AMEX:SPY ) chart. Happy trading! Jakub FINEIGHT
AMEX:SPYEducation
by Fineight
2
💹Graphical technical analysis💹👋🏻Hi friends.☺ Glad to see you on my page! 🤗 👊🏻Today I decided to share with you another educational post.👊🏻 ⚡Continues the topic of TA methods. We consider each of them in more details. And start with the graphic method. 🧐 💹Graphical technical analysis is the analysis of various market graphical models formed by certain patterns of price movements on charts, with the goal of assuming the likelihood of a continuation or change of an existing trend. 📗 👉🏻Classical figures of technical analysis are divided into: 🤜🏻confirming a trend reversal; 🤜🏻confirming the continuation of the trend; 🤜🏻confirming the possibility of both a reversal and a continuation of the trend. Each model has its own specific mechanism of education and a certain graphic form. The dynamics of the volume of transactions is a confirming factor in the existence of a certain model. All models find an explanation from the point of view of the psychology of market participants. Despite the apparent simplicity of this method, it shows good results. The main disadvantage of this method is that it is very subjective. 🤜🏻 – TREND REVERSAL PATTERN 📌Head & Shoulders Pattern 📌Triple and double top ♦Triple Top it often happens that the third attempt is successful for breaking through support / resistance. ♦Double Top : after exiting the figure, market fluctuations are visible. At this time, the opening of long positions. 🤜🏻– CONTINUATION OF THE TREND 📌"Flag" 🤜🏻 – BILATERAL PATTERNS - POSSIBOLITY OF BOTH A REVERSAL AND CONTINUATIONA OF THE TREND Such figures have the appearance of a triangle and are divided into converging and diverging triangles. The triangle itself is the most common trend pattern. 📌Triangles These are not all possible figures of technical analysis. In the next post I'll tell you more.❤❤❤ I try very hard for you!🤗😍 If you noticed, that I put my soul into every post, put like me, I really appreciate you !!!☺☺☺ I'm very interested, how many people like my educational posts.🧐🧐🧐 I'll try even better for you !!!💋💋💋💋 With love😍😍😍 Your Rocket Bomb🚀💣 ⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡ 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥Homework:🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 find on the chart of any coin the patterns that I talked about in my post !!!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by RocketBomb
10
A GREAT EXAMPLE WHERE PRO TRADERS DOWe do the analysis and we have reasons for entry. But what priority is your money management system. I being honest with my trade and analysis. Pro traders have a ratio where we put our stop loss and take profit. This trade is actually a good trade because we follow the system even it hits sl. At the first place, before we predict the market, we agree how much we want to risk. But for new traders, they don't understand because when the time goes by they start to lose their confidence in the trade when at the first place they already agree how much they wanna risk their capital. Hope this teaches you something. Watch my previous post about this analysis of this pair. If you Agree, hit the like button and follow me to see my opportunity to buy or sell in the market. Keeping the trade simple, even it's super simple, as long as you understand what you are doing then take the risk to gain. Priority: 1. Stop loss must smaller than your take profit. 2. Must at least 2 reasons why you enter the trade. 3. Trade and Forget. Psychology: 1. Not all setup is valid, its fact. 2. Trading is predicting the market. 3. The only way to win in Forex is by controlling your lot size and your risk to reward ratio. 4. Sometimes when the price hit your stop loss but you still follow your SYSTEM, its still a good trade. READ IT AGAIN! Apr 15 Trade active
Education
by UnknownUnicorn4036496
2
Beginner Technical Analysis 101 - Support and ResisitanceBeginner Technical Analysis 101 - Support and Resistance. When you are first learning to trade, the charts can seem very daunting. I wanted to share with you a quick lesson in market structure that will help you understand a few things. You know how you don't see any nice cars around until you buy a nice car, and then they are everywhere? Actually they were there all along, but your brain wasn't programmed to see them. I won't get into the way the RAS works in your head but basically you didn't know what to look for so why would you see it? Trading is the same and I'm going to show you something here that will make you see charts totally differently forever - promise. This is a basic concept of technical analysis in trading and one of the first things I do when I look at sizing up any trade. It's called Support and Resistance. The concept is simple, prices of assets and contracts have particular levels that they react to. They may rise to a level and then (seemingly miraculously turn and fall back down. As a trader this is disheartening if you don't know whats happening. In fact, its a very simple concept. When price hits a certain point and turn back down, we call this resistance. When a price falls and then turns back up, we call this support. The really interesting thing is this - Resistance, once broken, becomes support. Support once broken, becomes resistance. It's one of the most basic, yet most powerful principles in trading and professional traders would never enter ANY trade without knowing their Sup and Res levels. I've drawn a chart (don't judge me I'm not an artist I'm a trader) to highlight this point. Now you know a secret of the market. You know something most people will never know and next time you see a change in a stock price, think to yourself - "I wonder if it hit resistance" - because it probably did If you want to learn more about trading and do some real education, I'm happy to recommend books and courses. Happy trading and good luck!
ASX:XJOEducation
by glennleese
SPY - MAGIC SUPPORT/RESISTANCE level - Market will STOP thereHello traders, after Easter, we share another educational video. Today´s topic is focused on drawing support and resistance levels. Many traders draw LINES and they think the market will bounce exactly from that level. The truth is, you can never do that . Instead, it´s better to understand the S/R level as a zone WHERE you can EXPECT some activity. Nobody cares if the market breaks the trend-line by few points. What really matters is if the breakout was respected or not. The example is explained in the AMEX:SPY market, which is very well known but you can use this logic in any market. Have good trading. FINEIGHT team
AMEX:SPYEducation
by Fineight
4
SPX with LongBuyLongSell Strategy How to Test Profitability BotPlease not this is only for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE. Here i have used my own indicator "LongBuyLongSell Indicator" the strategy version to check 1. Which time frame it is working best 2. What are the Entry conditions and how to choose the Entry 3. What are the profitability and the Max Draw down 4. Is there any Risk of Blindly following the Strategy. 5. Back-testing Results Let me try to explain this one by one. 1. Which time frame it is working best 1. In order to be very profitable or successful in trading first we need to know in which time frame the Strategy works Best. as i used my own LongBuyLongSell indicator it was easy to switch timeframe and check in which frame it works best. As far as i tested the results are good in 30MIN,4H ,Moderate in 15min , Negative in 5min. This gives me a clear picture that i can trade on 30Min or 4H. 2. What are the Entry conditions and how to choose the Entry /Exit --> There is always good to choose a script which is simple to use and to get clear Entry and Exit. -->Next it is better to choose a strategy based on the Close of the Candled ,This means the trade will be open by the close price of the previous candle but in the current candle. --> The Advantage of Choosing "Close" or "Once Per Bar Close " strategy is the repaint or false trigger of the indicator will not impact the success rate as the entry is taken on the BAR /Candle Close. --> In this indicator there is two possibility Entry By Blue /Black Color Candle (After the Black/Blue) or Entry By BackGround Color (After the Red /Green) or --> Exit also has two clear and neat criteria Exit By Blue/Black Color Candle when opposite color appears on Close of the BAR or Exit By BackGround opposite Color (After the Red /Green Example : Blue candle is the Entry ,then Black candle is the Exit (Long Side) Red Background is the Entry then Green Background is the Exit(Short side) Now the Strategy is clear what are we going to do . 3. What are the profitability and the Max Draw down After the conditions are set ,it is better to test how profitable a strategy will be to use .In order predict this tradingview.com backtest (strategy tester ) will be very helpful. Here i have chosen 1year 5 Months for testing and did a testing since from 2018.Both results has given more than 10% profit and 25% profitability percentage . And one more finding i have seen is the draw-down is less which is 3-5% Please note the draw-down must be lesser than profit percentage ,this is the key for good strategy .If the draw-down is more then no use of using any strategy. 4. Is there any Risk of Blindly following the Strategy. Yes there is a risk of following anything blindly that is real trading will have huge difference than the historical this may be on the positive side or can go on the negative side as well. Since the strategy takes only the closing some time huge wicks or huge price variation may impact our trading as it will show huge loss and we tend to close emotionally . So before we trade anything we need to check the lowest points and highest points plus volatility.If the volatility is too high be careful while trading .Especially when doing Auto Trading. 5. Back-testing Results Check the back test in various time frames and adjusting the commission ,Tick order filling ,contracts ,capital and the start and end date of testing to come to a conclusion. As an example i have shown the 30min Back-test result of S&P here for your reference. Note : This is just an educational post to make some awareness. If you wish to see how the LongBuyLongSell Indicator works here is the link for both scripts. Alert version (that can be used for BOT trading Alert signal generation ) Strategy version If you wish to appreciate ,LIKE ,COMMENT and Follow me . Once all the data output is positive ,and the results are good for any strategy it can be taken for AUTO BOT trading .There are plenty of plugins available today to do this .Tradingivew helps getting the ALERTS to do automatic trading using the third party plugins. HAPPY TRADING ,STAY TUNE.
TVC:SPXEducation
by MarxBabu
9
LINK is the link to learn the Harmonics/Chart Patterns with FibsThose interested in harmonics and chart patterns must play with LINK-USDT as this volatility has been a treat for the harmonic traders and those interested in research on Harmonic and Chart patterns using Fibonacci levels. Each of the pattern drawn on chart will have to be carefully analysed using Fib retracement and Fib extension based on type of the pattern such as AB-CD, BAT/Gartley, Shark, Crab, Butterfly, Double Top/Bottom, H&S, 3 drive etc. (Not all spotted here), but you get the idea.
Education
by TradeChartist
🔥A FEW THOUGHT OF STOP LOSS🔥👋🏻Hey, my dear friends!👋🏻 The weekend has come, it means, that the markets are showing slow activity.😴 👩🏻‍💻 That’s why I suggest you a little self-development.👩🏻‍💻 ✋🏻Today I want to tell you my thoughts about stop losses.🛑 Some traders don’t use stop loss, thinking that they work wrong and that’s inconvenient. In fact, if your stop-losses are triggered too often, then you set them incorrectly. 📌 For this reason, never try to put stop as close to the entry point as possible. 📌But it’s also not necessary put it too far from entry point, since the desire to “wait out” does not lead to a successful result. Many newcomers have another common mistake - they believe, that stop loss completely prevent the loss of money during transactions. 📎This cannot happen in principle - financial markets have their own rules, and losses here have always been and will be forever. 📌But over time, you can minimized it, by learning and development.💛💛💛 Believe you’ll succeed! Many trading books often teach how to place stops at support / resistance levels. 📌Concept of setting stop loss at significant levels is correct. But at the same time, it can’t be set at the very level! 📌You should put your stop loss above / below the support / resistance level, respectively. 🔍🔍You can find my previous idea at the link below.👇🏻👇🏻 Stay with me✔👌🏻 Your Rocket Bomb 🚀💣
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by RocketBomb
9
Back to the past - 2008 - is this our future?In this educational post, I look back to 2008 to get a rough idea what may be in store for us in 2020. This is a cautious exploration because what happened in 2008 was very very different to what's happening today (though there are many similarities). This post does not exclude the possibility that the US and other stock markets may recover totally and head to the moon. Possibility is not the same as probability. How? It's possible that the sun may rise in the West tomorrow morning, but that is highly improbable. Technical analysis is a good thing, but relies totally on historical price movements. Ultimately technical analysis is not immune to the real-world issues that affect price. The world is moving into a 50-75 year cycle for depressions - which is very different to the 10 year cycle for recessions. Do NOT be influenced to make trading decisions based on this post. You have been told.
OANDA:US30USDEducation
by Captain_Walker
How To Day Trade Consolidations Profitably With #FibonacciTraders, Several fellow day traders have been asking to show how they can day trade using fibonacci based analysis which I use for swing trading. The fibonacci based analysis is applicable to all chart time frames and on all instruments in all markets. It even works on tick charts. In this educational video I present how we could have made 130 pips easily with day trading GBPUSD using fibonacci based analysis. Support and motivate me by hitting the like button, subscribing to my channel and sharing this analysis with other traders. Comment below and let me know what you think of this analysis and what is yours? I welcome all comments, feedback, ideas and sharing of knowledge. Have a great trading week!
Education
by vikinsa
2
Commitment of traders reportWHAT IS IT The Commitment Of Traders (CoT) is a report issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) , one of the most important trading insitutionsof the American government. The report has the purpose of transparently showing market dynamics to the all the people involved or interested in the matter. The COT report show all currently open positions (open interest) of the future and options market, where 20 or more traders hold positions for an amount greater or equal to the minimum amount amount established by the CFTC . The report is issued every Friday at 3:30 P.M. (Eastern Standard Time, hence UTC-5). Each report normally contains data until previous Tuesday. CFTC usually receives data on Wednesday morning from the reporting firms (i.e.: Future Commission Merchants, Financial Insititutions, Brokers or International Stock Exchanges). After some verifications, CFTC publish data the following Friday. For each market, data are provided in terms of existing (still open) LONG and SHORT positions. TYPES OF REPORTS There are 4 types of report: 1) Legacy It contains data split by stock exchange. This report has two different variants: "futures only", that contains data related to the futures market only, and "combined", that contains aggregated data for futures and options market. All the reported positions in this report are split in two main market actors categories: Commercials (or Large Speculators) and Non-Commercials 2) Supplemental It includes contracts related to 13 selected agricultural market commodities. This kind of report split positions in 3 market actors categories: Commercials (or Large Speculators), Non-Commercials and Index Traders. Differently from Legacy report, the Supplemental is provided in the "combined" format only, hence contains data for both futures and options market 3) Disaggregated This report contains the same data issued in the Legacy report, but with a more detailed drill down in terms of representation. First of all, it presents data split in 5 macro-categories: Agriculture, Petroleum and Products, Natural Gas and Products, Electricity, Metals and Other. Moreover, the report shows open positions/interests of 4 market actors categories: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap Dealers, Managed Money e Other Reportables. Aggregating data of this report, it is possible to obtain same data of Legacy report, hence this is a detailed view of data contained in the Legacy report. The Disaggregated, as well as the Legacy one, is available as "futures only" and "combined" variants 4) Traders in Financial Futures (TFF) This report includes contracts related to currencies, US Treasury Bonds, Eurodollar deposits, VIX shares and Bloomberg Index only. The reports shows open interests of 4 market actors categories: Dealer/Intermediary, Asset Manager/Institutional, Leveraged Funds e Other Reportables. Last, also this report is available as "futures only" and "combined" variants REPORT FORMATS Legacy and Disaggregated reports are provided in two formats: short (synthetic) and long (extended). Both these formats contain same data, but long format contains also the concentration of open positions in the hands of the major 4 and 8 market investors at the moment of data collection, while short format does not contains any data about concentration. TFF report is available in long format only, while the Supplemental is available in the short format only. Report type Scope Format Futures Combined Long Short Legacy ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Disaggregated ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ TTFF ✓ ✓ ✓ X Supplemental X ✓ X ✓ Legacy report As said above, market actors in Legacy report are divided in 2 categories: Non-Commercials , or Large Speculators : they are market speculators as well as hedge funds. This category normally uses financial leverage to amplify variation of derivative asset and has an aggressive behavior in the market. They use rigid stop loss policies and, when the market falls below certain levels, they reverse positions on the other side. The main purpose of Large Speculators is not the asset they buy or sell, but to obtain a net profit from the buy/sell cycle. They normally have a trend following behavior. Commercials buy futures just because they are interested in the underlying asset and try to hedge their financial exposition related to the commercial activity with the assets they are interested in. These market actors hold more than 50% of open positions in the US futures market and normally they go against the price trend: they sell when the market goes higher and they buy when the market goes lower. Their positions on underlying assets normally anticipate market trend, hence they should be carefully monitored Non-Reportable : are the open position of small investors/traders that normally are on the wrong side of the market. This investors category is usually confused and not disciplined. They do not follow precise rules and are usually dragged by the trend, but they are slow to reverse positions when the market trend reverses. The following example contains data about "futures only" market for BUTTER, coming from Chicago Mercantile Exchange. BUTTER (CASH SETTLED) - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-050642 FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 03/17/20 | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------| NON-REPORTABLE NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS --------------------------------|---------------------|--------------------------|----------------- LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (CONTRACTS OF 20,000 POUNDS) OPEN INTEREST: 11,597 COMMITMENTS 0 2,473 453 10,401 8,149 10,854 11,075 743 522 CHANGES FROM 03/10/20 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 753) 0 -127 101 675 796 776 770 -23 -17 PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS 0.0 21.3 3.9 89.7 70.3 93.6 95.5 6.4 4.5 NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 47) 0 12 10 28 22 38 34 It is possible to see as in the report is provided the total amount of LONG and SHORT positions for Non-Commercial, Commercial and Non-Reportable actors. Variations from previous week are moreover reported. In addiction to LONG and SHORT positions, Legacy report contains also the SPREAD amount, that is available for Non-Commercial only, and refers to contracts that are opened LONG and SHORT at the same time. Normally a growing SPREAD value means a high level of uncertainty. If we calculate NET POSITIONS (NP) for the 3 actors categories, as it's easy to check, the report show a zero-sum scenario: NP Non-Comm = 0 – 2,473 = - 2,473 NP Comm = 10,401 – 8,149 = 2,252 NP Non-Rept = 743 – 522 = 221 NP Non-Comm + NP Comm + NP Non-Rept = -2,473 + 2,252 + 221 = 0 OPEN INTEREST value is the grand total resulting as the sum of LONG, SHORT and SPREAD positions: Open Interest = 0 + 453 + 10,401 + 743 = 11,597 Supplemental report Even the Supplemental report (called also Commodity Index Traders - CIT) shows data in the same manner of Legacy report, but the market actors are 3: Non-Commercial, Commercial and Index Traders. Non-Commercial and Commercial actors are the same, while Index Traders category has appeared for the first time in January 2007. Before that date, investors that are now reported in this category were scattered in the two existing categories (Non-Commercial and mostly in the Commercial). The creation of Index Traders category has had the purpose to separate that category from Commercials, because Index Traders are not involved in the buy/sell cycle of underlying assets, and are usually managed funds, institutional investors or swap dealers. Index traders are normally interested in passive and longstanding LONG positions, while are not interested in the short-term price fluctuations. It's not unusual that this category start buying when price is falling and technical analysis says that the price falling will be even more deep. Index Traders are hence a counter-part of speculators, who have usually a contrarian habit. Supplemental report is provided for 13 commodities: • WHEAT-SRW - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE • WHEAT-HRW - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE • CORN - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE • SOYBEANS - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE • SOYBEAN OIL - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE • SOYBEAN MEAL - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE • COTTON NO. 2 - ICE FUTURES U.S. • LEAN HOGS - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE • LIVE CATTLE - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE • FEEDER CATTLE - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE • COCOA - ICE FUTURES U.S. • SUGAR NO. 11 - ICE FUTURES U.S. • COFFEE C - ICE FUTURES U.S. Disaggregated report Market actors of Disaggregated report are: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User : they are involved in production, handling, packaging or transport of physical assets that is underlying to the future instrument or option. These actors use futures to cover/hedge risks associated to the activities they are involved in that are strictly related to the production of the assets Swap Dealers : they are subjects that are involved in trading swap contracts related to the commodity and uses futures market to cover/hedge risks associated with swap transactions. The counterpart of a Swap dealer could be a speculative traders, as well as an hedge fund, or a more traditional Commercial subject that is interested in managing risks associated with the commerce activities of the asset Money manager : to this category belong Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA), Commodity Pool Operator (CPO) or an unregistered fund identified by the CFTC. These subjects are delegated from their clients to do financial operations in their behalf Other Reportable : all speculative traders that are not belonging in the three previous category are included in this category Even in this case, the report shows LONG, SHORT and SPREAD positions. Comparing this kind of report with Legacy, we can see that: COMMERCIAL = PRODUCER/MERCHANT/PROCESSOR/USER + SWAP DEALERS NON-COMMERCIAL = MONEY MANAGER + OTHER REPORTABLE This explains why the report is called "disaggregated". It shows the same data but with a more level of detail especially regarding the actors that hold open positions. If we take the Disaggregated report about BUTTER for the "futures only" market coming from Chicago Mercantile Exchange (equivalent to the previous example that is showed under the Legacy report section, we see: :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : : Producer/Merchant : : : : : Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables : : Long : Short : Long : Short : Spreading : Long : Short : Spreading : Long : Short : Spreading : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BUTTER (CASH SETTLED) - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 20,000 POUNDS) : CFTC Code #050642 Open Interest is 11,597 : : Positions : : 8,893 6,326 1,048 1,363 460 0 301 180 0 2,172 273 : : : : Changes from: March 10, 2020 : : 244 648 324 41 107 0 -12 -8 0 -115 109 : : : : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader : : 76.7 54.5 9.0 11.8 4.0 0.0 2.6 1.6 0.0 18.7 2.4 : : : : Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 47 : : 24 18 . . 4 0 . . 0 10 9 : --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If we take the categories Producer/Merchant/Processor/User and Swap Dealers and we sum all LONG positions and then subtract all SHORT positions, we obtain an overall NET positions like this: NP = (8,893 +1,048 + 0 + 0) - (6,326 + 1,363) = 2,252 Now, if we do the same calculation for Commercial category of the correspondent Legacy report (see above) we obtain: NP = 10,401 - 8,149 = 2,252 This is the confirmation that Disaggregated report contains the split of data reported in the Legacy report, where Commercial category is divided in Producer/Merchant/Processor/User and Swap Dealers. Same calculation would demonstrate that Non-Commercial category in the Legacy report is spitted here in Managed Money and Other Reportable categories. If we now consider the Disaggregated report and we sum all LONG positions and then we subtract all SHORT positions for each actors category, we obtain: (8,893 + 1,048 + 0 + 0) – (6,326 + 1,363 + 301 + 2,172) = 9941 - 10162 = -221 Given that the grand total should represent a zero-sum scenario, e can deduce from Disaggregated report that net position of Non-Reportable subjects should be +221, hence a net LONG of 221 contracts, and that is correct, in fact it is possible to obtain the same result from correspondent Legacy report (see above) by subtracting net SHORT position for Non-Reportable actors to the amount of net LONG positions for the same actors. Hence Disaggregated report allow us to calculato also net position of Non-Reportable, even if the data do not explicitly report the value. Traders in financial futures report This report is a further view on the market and split market actors in two sides (SELL and BUY) and 4 categories: SELL SIDE Dealer/Intermediary : are financial intermediaries who earn by the commissions related to the sell of financial products. Big banks and other financial entities are involved in this activities BUY SIDE Asset Manager/Institutional : they are insitutional investors, including pension funds, insurance companies and investment portfolio managers whose clients are mainly institutional entities Leveraged funds : these are typically speculative funds (hedge funds) and various types of money managers, including the Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA) and the Commodity Pool Operators (CPO) not necessarily registered by CFTC. These subjects can be involved in hedging strategies and arbitrages on their own capital, or even third parties capital Other reportable : these are all the traders that are not included in previous categories Differently from Disaggregated report, the TFF report the positions of the mentioned actors categories are not an exact disaggregation of Commercial and Non-Commercial positions reported in the Legacy report. Here each actor belonging to one of the categories mentioned above could belong to the Commercial or the Non-Commercial category in the Legacy report, basing on the decision that CFTC takes during the report creation, that can be different time after time (i.e.: a subject that has already been considered a Commercial one in the beginning, can be shifted to Non-Commercial after a while, depending on the specific activities he is involved during the time, that can change as well). The TFF report is moreover available only in the LONG format REPORT ANALYSIS If we properly analyze data in the Commitment of Traders legacy report, we can determine the expectations of each market actor category regarding the market future. The possibility to know the net positions of Commercial subjects (institutional investors) is the basis to understand the market sentiment. Their influence is, in fact, between 50% and 75% of the entire futures market of S&P500 and from 40% and 60% of Nasdaq100. It is useful to point out that Commercial subjects, as well as the Non-Commercial, can take arbitrage or hedging positions, or, alternatively, put in place an active management of their portfolios by buying or selling futures on foreign (not US) markets, or, again, have open position on the futures' underlying assets and protect themselves from risks of price variations by taking opposite positions on the futures market. Hence the Commitment of Traders Report is an important thermometer to measure US stock exchange sentiment, but it isn't a tool that, alone, can allow us to predict how financial markets will move. It should be used (as usual) together with other indicators, tools, analysis and perspectives to have a better understanding of what is happening and a good approximation of what is going to happen (most likely). Commercial subjects are active actors in the futures' underlying asset market and generally sell when the market (price) grows and buy when the price is more convenient (low), hence their activities are contrarian to the logic of speculators. For this reason the Commercial actors are often responsible of market moves and trends. They drag prices and the market with their activities, hence they anticipate and determine the market trends. Non-Commercial subjects, viceversa, have opposite interests. They want to make money by price variations, hence they buy when the market shows growing prices and sell in the opposite conditions. This behavior is what we call "trend following" approach. Here are some typical scenarios that we can find by analyzing the Commitment of Traders report: 1) If Non-Reportable actors (small/retail traders) are LONG and Commercial are SHORT, the Non-Reportable actors are most likely going to loose money because the price will go to to the side where Commercial are pushing it (down) 2) On the maximum levels of an asset price (i.e. near significant RESITANCE levels), Non-Reportable are likely pushed to SELL their positions. Then stop loss levels are likely hit and only after the price starts his falling stage 3) If Non-Commercial are LONG and Non-Reportable are SHORT, we are likely in the middle of an UPTREND and there is more space for the price to gro further 4) If Non-Commercial are LONG and also Non-Reportable are LONG, we are likely in the "euphoric" phase of the trend, hence the trend is going to finish soon 5) If Non-Commercial are SHORT, Non-Reportable are upgrading their SHORT positions and Comemrcial slow down their LONG positions, e re likely in the terminal phase of a downtrend If we accept the hypothesis that Commercial traders hold better information on the market than the others just because they are active actors of the futures' underlying assets (it's their own business!), it is very important to monitor their behaviour in order to understand how they are evaluating the situation related to the specific commodity that is at the center of our interest. Commitment of Traders Index An interesting approach to have effective insights from the Commitment of Traders report can be obtained by calculating an index using the report data. Normally Comemrcial net positions are used to calculate the index as follows: NP (Net Position) = Long Positions – Short Positions Usually, an interval of 26 periods (weeks) is selected and the calculation to determine the index value is: COT Index = * 100 The index, expressed as a pecentage value from 0 to 100, reflects net position of Commercials on the basis of last 26 periods. It can be used as an indicator of overbought and oversold zones and can be a good tool to understand where investors are moving. The index can be also calculated for Non-Commercial or Non-Reportable positions. Last, but not least, remember that Commitment Of Traders report is released every Friday evening, but contains data up until previous Tuesday, hence a "lagging" effect should be seriously considered in all the analysis that involves it. The content of this article has solely education purposes and should be not considered trading or investement advise.
Education
by Marco_it972
7 Steps to Drawing Professional Trendlines+ Predicting DirectionHow To Correctly Draw Trend-Lines To Assess Breakouts Trend-lines are the most fundamental skills of anyone performing the technical analysis of charts. As a certified market analyst, you are taught how to draw trendlines properly, this is the quick guide to doing it right. There are 3 time-frames for trends according to Charles Dow the father of technical analysis and the Dow Jones Industrial average. 3 Trend Timeframes • Short-term: Days to Weeks • Medium-term: Weeks to Months • Long-term: Months to Years 3 Types of Trend • Uptrend • Down Trend • Sideways Consolidation The secret of trend-lines is combining these 6 factors to assess market direction. Looking at the NVIDIA chart I have plotted key trendlines and the expected direction once price breaks through or bounces off a trendline. 4 Trends on the NVIDIA Chart 1. The long-term trend – Uptrend By connecting the lowest lows (closing price) on a price chart we can easily see that NVIDIA is in a long-term uptrend. As this trend spans from 2016 through 2020 (months to years) it is a long-term trend. 2. The medium-term trend – Sideways Connecting the highest highs for NVIDIA from 2019 to 2020 (weeks to months) we can see that NVIDIA is in a sideways consolidation pattern. Here you can see that trend-line (2.) is also called the resistance line. The price bounced twice off the resistance line but did not break through, meaning resistance. Also, in terms of the chart pattern, it is a “double top”. 3. The Short-term Trend – Downtrend Looking at the days to weeks timeframe and connecting the highest highs of the closing prices we can clearly see that NVIDIA is in a downtrend. 4. Long-term lateral support line Here we can draw a horizontal line connecting previous highs and lows to see there a possible future target price may be. Using Trend-lines to Establish Possible Price Direction Now that we have drawn the trend-lines we can see that if price breaks through or bounces off a trendline what the next market move will be. Predictions are colored in Red. 5. Price Breaks Through Long-term Trend Line If the stock price breaks down through the long-term price trend (1.) then we expect it to move down to trend-line (4.) at $120 6. Price Breaks Up through Short-term Down Trend If price breaks up through trend line (3.) Then we expect resistance at the Medium-term trend line (2.) At this point, it will either move back down to continue up. 7. Price Breaks through Medium-term Trend 2. Finally, if the price moves up through medium trend (2.), this is a new all-time high and a bull run. Summary I hope this guide shows you how to draw trend lines properly to give professional reliable results and market entry timings. Thanks Barry – LiberatedStockTrader.com
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by liberatedstocktrader
8
A Guide To The Fundamentals Of Support And Resistance TradingHere's my definitive guide on how to place your take profit, entry positions and stop loss orders when you are trading using support and resistance patterns. Many people have reached out to me asking to provide more details on where to place the orders exactly. In this guide I will share my experience, and show what I learned during my trading journey to be the most effective. Again, this is my personal view and the way I personally trade. If you have another view on this, I encourage you to share it in the comments. The reason all of us are on Tradingview is to learn. A trader would be quickly out of the market, if they don't continuously keep learning. Please challenge my explanation, ask questions, and share your own vision. Without further ado, here is the explanation for each of the orders: Take Profit. Many people will be looking at the resistance areas. As soon as the price comes close to this area, it will find friction and will struggle to go higher. Make sure you place your take profit limit order directly below the area of resistance, to stay ahead of the curve. This will maximize the chances of your take profit to get hit, even when the price prematurely bounces off the resistance area. Entry Position. Similarly to the logic of the take profit, you would want to place the limit buy slightly above the horizontal support. The closer you get to this zone of support, the more bulls will start to fight back and try to push the price back up again. Keep in mind, if you spot a support and resistance trade set-up, you don't necessarily have to immediately enter the trade. You can place a limit buy on the price where the pattern you spot would be validated. Stop Loss. Everything about a trade goes along with the assumption that the pattern you found is true. You should use a stop loss to make sure you exit the trade immediately after your pattern gets invalidated. For a support and resistance set up, this translates to the price breaking through the support. Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only! About the links below: 20% Discount on Binance: Did you know that Binance introduced a new system where you can get 20% discount on your fees? Find the step-by-step guide on how to add it to your account on the website of 100eyes Forex & Crypto Scanner: Nobody can keep track of all the pairs on all timeframes. This scanner works on Telegram and sends an automated message including a chart every time something happens to a coin. E.g. it can automatically detect areas of support and resistance, RSI Divergences, Fib Retracements, and more. Further reading on BTC:
Education
by Trading-Guru
6