Charts Gives you Sign, Read The Price Action! The Art of technical analysis is Simple:
1) Take a Clean Chart
2) Look For major Trend in Daily Chart.
3) Zoom into H4 for any counter trend, In case of EURNZD I spotted Post rejection of 61.8% Fib level
4) Eventually Price broke the Counter trend line (here where 90% retail trader starts selling) No Be patient Let the price show you confluences.
5) Price pulls back up and retest its former Support/Resistance, trendline (incase of EURNZD it pulled back up and retested trendline and rejected) Still be patient as we dont have much confluences.
6) Finally I had a 4H bearish engulfing candle close giving 2nd confluence that the bearish major trend of daily chart will prevail. Price just came up to 61.8 Fib level to make a LOWER HIGH (LH)
7) Now after having 3 Confluences (Trendline Break, Trendline Retest & Rejection, Bearish Engulfing) I took a sell @ 1.6911 with Stoploss right above previous 3 candles @ 1.6955
8) Price came down and broke keylevel zone (as from point #6 on chart we see it came back at the top of keyzone and pulls back down with a nice bearish engulfing) Holding Positions Patience!
9) Nice +80 Pips, Here we need to apply exiting strategies (Close your 50% position and book profits) & put stoploss at breakeven) trade is safe now Let it RUN.
FX:EURNZD
Educational
USD/CAD BEARISH MARKET STRUCTURE*-CONSECUTIVE LOWER HIGHS AND LOWER LOWS
*-REJECTED WITH A PIN BAR OF 1.30684 SUPPORT ZONE
*-WE MIGHT SEE A CORRECTIVE PRICE BEHAVIOUR
*-POSSIBLE CORRECTIVE STRUCTURE UP TO 1.33 FIB/RES/TRENDLINE
*-I AM SEEING A POSSIBLE NICE DOWNTREND HERE AFTER WE HAVE BROKEN A MASSIVE&HUGE IMPORTANT UPTRENDLINE
*-PRICE MIGHT ALSO CORRELATE WITH 50 EMA
*-WAITING TO SEE SOME PRICE ACTION/CANDLESTICK PATTERNS ON MY POCKET BEFORE ENTERING A LONG TRADE
*-BE CAREFULL OF NFP THIS FRIDAY
*-ITS BETTER TO CLOSE ALL OPEN TRADES BEFORE NFP
#tradesafe #education #bestsetup #learn #freecontent
EUR/USD UPTRENDING !!*-BROKE ASCENDING TRENDLINE
*-DOUBLE BOTTOM FORMATION SIGNALING A TREND CHANGE
*-PRICE IS ABOUT TO CREATE A NEW DESCENDING TRENDLINE
*-I AM EXPECTING A FURTHER MORE SMALL PUSH TO THE DOWNSIDE TOUCHING THE SUPPORT AND FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT
*-PRICE MIGHT ALSO CORRELATE WITH 50 EMA
*-WAITING TO SEE SOME PRICE ACTION/CANDLESTICK PATTERNS ON MY POCKET BEFORE ENTERING A LONG TRADE
*-BE CAREFULL OF NFP THIS FRIDAY
*-ITS BETTER TO CLOSE ALL OPEN TRADES BEFORE NFP
#tradesafe #education #bestsetup #learn #freecontent
Unethical trading representations (educational)This topic has not to my knowledge been covered on Tradingview before now.
I specifically explore ' unethical trading representations' and explain in the limited time what that means as a concept.
To be absolutely clear, I am not asserting that every paid-for service or representation is unethical or illegal. What I am saying is that new traders and the inexperienced are like 'fresh meat' for these schemes, that aim for a small percentage of them.
The impact assessment - whether or not new traders pay for 'inner circle' access in these things, is of real importance.
Nothing said in this post refers to any identifiable individual, group or entity.
New traders especially need to be hyper-vigilant and cautious before parting with their money. But even if not parting with money, the potential negative impact is of importance.
I declare a personal bias, that I have been stung by three of these early in my trading career.
DXY (US DOLLAR INDEX) LONG BIASIf Dollar Index Weakens XXX/USD goes up. If Dollar Index Strengthens XXX/USD does down.
Looking at DXY I can see a Reversal Pattern form inside the box with a Pin Bar, Doji and what looks to be a Bearish Engulfing Candle. However, the market is uptrending & this could easily be a retest on 98.00 for a continuation upwards to fulfill the -0.27% extension.
Plan A:
We have got a fair bit of USD news coming out in 5 hours following this week will be NFP and Client Sentiments show that the vast majority of Retail-Traders are Shorting the USD and Longing XXX/USD, So I choose to observe the masses and do the opposite which is have a long Bias on USD...Also I dislike going against the trend of the market;)
Plan B:
I will not be looking to Short the USD unless there is a clear break of the Counter-Trend line.
Targets at -0.27%
The Cat Theory & the Major Resistance Ahead - Bitcoin is felineHey everyone,
I usually post more on weekends and here's another look at how Bitcoin and XBT price could move in the mid future. Yesterday, I posted a chart that talks about time and how I've mastered it.
There are 5 main points to talk about on this chart:
1- Major past support and future resistance area
2- The 134-day stagnation zone that turned our lives into hell
3- The mirror trend and those two egg-shaped ellipses
4- The 8 times bears failed to drop the price down but succeeded on the 9th attempt - 134 days ago (Is Bitcoin a cat?) :/
5- Will it take 8 failed and 1 last successful attempt to bring the price back up above that resistance line?? (Can a cat do a phoenix?)
Look at this chart closely. It says way too much.
That resistance/support rectangle at the 6,000$ level is HUGE. It's unbelievably powerful and it took 9 attempts in the past to break below it. Breaking that support line took us on a freefall into that stagnation zone between the $3,000 and $4,200 range. Now at this point, Bitcoin and crypto people got too tired as we were just out of panic phase and into CAPITULATION. The stagnation lasted 134 tiring days and I was one of those people who was actively watching that market and having some fun on BitMEX.
From the look of it and the recent bullish rally, I can say that we are currently in DISBELIEF phase (or in other words, the sucker's rally). Things are looking great, people do not believe what they're seeing and they are getting ready for that hyperbolic rally.
No, we're not there yet. I know many of you will hate me for saying this, but we are still a long way off that hyperbolic rally. Give it a few months. It will take time.
Why do I say this?
It's that major resistance line above us.
On 14th and 15h of July 2018, Bitcoin bounced back up from that support and made us think that we were back on track to new all-time highs. That was clearly the DENIAL phase as people were saying bitcoin was the future of all currencies and that it was just cooling off. They were wrong. Now when that rally failed, I knew that the price would break below that green psychological barrier and if you read my last post, you will see that I accurately predicted that the price would plunge below it somewhere between the 9th and 15th of November.
The two egg-shaped ellipses and the mirror scenario. There's a really nice saying that goes like this: "Some days I think I look kind of cute, but other days I try to avoid the mirror." This is the case with the mirror scenario and those two egg-shaped ellipses in there. The day will come soon when we will think that it's looking so good, but then one day we will wake up and see Bitcoin form a new lower/higher low parallel to that stagnation zone.
It remains to be seen if Bitcoin will try to dump out the weak hands one more time and whether we will have multiple attempts before breaking above the green psychological resistance level or would we slice it open much faster.
I personally believe the most likely scenario is the one shown on my chart.
I will bring more updates to prove my followers that I'm a master of times and an expert of charts. xD
Thank you for reading dear friends.
See you in the next one!
EURAUD Long Trade - *Descending Wedge Pattern & Demand Zone*Here is a long trade I have taken on EURAUD but unfortunately did not manage to post to trading view before my entry. I will cover the basic analysis for entering this trade below:
Technical Analysis:
- Descending Wedge Pattern
- Price is Squeezing
- Rejections of 1.57/1.57150 support zone
- Anticipation of the wedge breakout
Fundamental Analysis:
- Gold price dropping should influence AUD negatively
- Anticipating negative AUD data
A full breakdown of this trade can be found on my blog by clicking on the link below:
diaryofafinancekid.com
How I trade outside bars - Trading Strategy - FMTA simple trading strategy.
Here we have a stripped back version of my trading strategy.
I simply use outside bars to indicate momentum and turning points in the market.
The first highlighted bar from April 2018 shows an outside bar completely engulfing the previous weeks price action. From here the market moves over 400 pips north.
The second highlighted bar shows a reversal from our previous move up. Again the price action completely engulfs the previous weeks. We could then gain another 400+ pips.
This repeats it self on the the third and forth bar.
We only trade outside bars from the extremities of the Bollinger bands. When entering a trade I place a pending order on a 50% retracement from the high (or low) of the outside bar.
Stops are usually placed just above the high or low of the outside bar.
You won’t catch every pip and your pending order won’t activate on every trade but this is a simple yet powerful trading system which can be used on various time frames. I tend to stick to the daily, weekly and monthly charts.
On the lower time frames (1hr/4hr) I will use the RSI(2) for further clarification on oversold and overbought markets by only trading outside bars if the RSI is above 95 or below 5.
If you have any question feel free to ask.
4 Beginner Bitmex Mistakes That Can Ruin Your Whole Portfolio! 4 Beginner Bitmex Mistakes That Are Ruining Your Chances of Profits And What You Should Do Instead
1. Over Leveraged Trades
No matter how great of a trader you are or how much experience you have in technical analysis, over leveraging is a sure fire way of racking up loss after loss in BitMEX or any margin exchanges.
Bitmex allows you to borrow 100x against your deposited bitcoin.
At 100x, a small 0.5% move in price will get you liquidated. That’s right, just half a percent in price movement of the underlying asset at 100x is all you get for safety.
Example : If you 100x Long XBT at $5220, your liquidation point would be $5246. That’s only $26 worth of room.
The lower the leverage the more room you get per trade.
Guide to Success: Keep leverage low, 10x maximum but try to use up to 5x mostly. This ensures you have more room and time to become profitable and take profits.
2. Over Position Size
Everyone has done it at one point. You know the price is going to move a certain way and you want to capitalize as much as you can on the opportunity, you type in a big number and hit the long or short button. Bam! Price moves the opposite direction and you get this email: " Your Bitmex Position Has Been Liquidated "
Ouch.
Guide to Success: Use only a set percent of your total portfolio per trade. Use an amount that you wouldn’t be too worried about losing but would also get a nice return if the trade gets profitable.
This ensures all losses are manageable. It’s very critical to not to importantize one specific trade idea.
3. Lack of Patience
You haven’t traded in awhile and are itching for a position, you see no good opportunities so you look at the 15 minute chart. You enter a trade that looks great for short term profits. What luck! Your position is in profits, now it's time to exit quick before the market turns the other way. You hit the “Market” button. Uh oh! You just lost more money than you should have made. What happened here? Simple, the BitMEX trading fees are very high if you use market orders. If everyone could make easy money on BitMEX, the platform would not exist. BitMEX makes money from trading fees. When you execute market trades, you pay a hefty 0.075% fee on the total size of the position you are trying to exit. At higher leverage, you pay higher fees. This isn’t the only fee you should expect to pay BitMEX.
Guide To Success : Never use just the shorter time frame charts to trade, always look to the further out time frames to see if they all align. Use limit orders to enter/exit a trade and prevent BitMEX from taking a huge chunk of your profits
4. Emotional Trading
You finally did it. You made a bunch of money on BitMEX in one trade. You’re euphoric and ecstatic about all your winnings. Knowing you’re on a win streak you go into the market once more with a bigger position. What happens next? Splat! You are liquidated, your winning streak has ended in a bad loss. Why did this happen? One word, emotions. You believed your winning streak would last and let euphoria control your trades. The opposite can happen during a losing streak, in that case it can lead to revenge trading with high capital allocation and high leverage. Win streaks don’t last and losing streaks can last forever.
Guide to Success: Always think and be analytical. Do not let winning (greed) or losing affect how you execute your next trade.
Conclusion: Trading on BitMEX is not easy. If it was everyone would be Bitcoin millionaires. By recognizing mistakes common traders make, you can prevent yourself from making the same silly mistakes and increase your chances of making consistent profits.
Feel free to support this post written by me, Shaggad, with a like!
Thanks for reading!
-Shaggad
Psych Hack #0006 - Dissonance TheoryIn this screencast I explore dissonance theory. Some don't know that trading is very little to do with charts and indicators - and terribly more to do with psychological matters that affect our decision-making. Seems a bit strange as my charts are usually covered in indicators.
I share lessons learned. I explore what the mind does when an alternative perspective or evidence emerges.
Disclaimer (required by Tradingview): This content is for educational purposes only. There is shared experience here based on exploration and study of psychological phenomena affecting decision-making and risk management. No guarantees are made that my knowledge or experience is right - and therefore should not be relied upon in real trading environments.
COMPARISON OF FOREX, STOCKS, AND CRYPTO!In today's video I go in depth on the pros and cons of trading each market. A lot of retail traders complain about aspects of certain markets and use the wrong tools for the job in the market they choose to trade.
There are plenty of options for every trader out there!
If you are interested in learning more about probability distributions and my proprietary indicators to trade, follow the links below.
Also, read the linked trading idea.
Is Taking Small Profits Bad Habit In Trading?Answer is, it depends! ( no surprise here ;) ) So now let's talk about, it really depends on what factors.
What does taking a small profit means?
If we talk about Forex trading then, taking anything less than 5 pips of profit is generally considered as small profit where usually people target roughly 30+ pips of gain in normal circumstances ( or taking profit well below the so called risk/reward ratio in range of 1:2 at least or healthy 1:3).
Why is it not good?
Keep on taking tiny profits compared to the strategy's original profit objective is certainly a path of destruction, sooner or later.
For example, your trade plan is to short EURUSD risking $50 and trying to make $100 ( 1:2 risk/ reward ). Here you enter short @1.1350 and expecting the downside of at least 1.12. Now suddenly trade starts moving in another direction and it goes up just near your stop-loss of 1.1400. But luckily trade survives and now it is trading around 1.1350, right where it all started and testing your patience. Now volatility dies down and it just stays there and in the excruciating moments of impatience and despair, you close the trade @1.1348 with great sigh of relief.
Here the problem is that if you keep on trading this way then one day, your account will be empty for sure. Because, here taking 2 pips of profit and keeping 50 pips stop-loss guarantees that you are paving the path of ruining your account, unless, you are sure that you are never going to lose a trade in your life! Because simply, just one bad trade will ruin your accumulated profit from 25 trades.
So in any scenario where your risk/reward is not optimized with trading strategy, you are never going to win the game.
Not all tiny profits are created equal !
If a trade plan is to take 100 pip profit and you have entered the trade from multiple entry points and taking tiny profit whenever market is giving you a good chance to cover tiny positions while keeping the core position active then of course it is good way to keep making money.
What's my take.
All things which makes your trading rigid are problematic IMHO. Those rigidities can be from anything, e.g. your trade plan is not flexible enough to account for change in circumstances, fixed entries, fixed exits and fixed stop-loss are equally harmful.
Especially in current atmosphere of very low volatility and lack of meaningful long lasting 1000 pip trends, it is imperative to take small profits and there is a way to do it!. My own trading style is neither purely positional nor quick technical trading, it is kind of combination of many things. One thing to keep in mind is that most important thing is the 'Strategy' and everything else should evolve around it and not vice-versa. Because if you decide that my stop-loss is just 30 pip fixed and bla bla bla then you lose the flexibility in trading. A strategy should be in accordance with your personality, so that it keeps you at peace and in rhythm. Everybody's risk tolerance and personality traits are different and so are the trading styles. Copying some so called pundit's advice ( who him/her-self is not making money from trading ) of ideal trade plan and all other nonsense is totally useless. These preachers have put on so much BS all around that the beginner trader is surely going to be lost. To be a better trader, listen to eveybody but copy nobody. Keep knocking different doors until you find that magic!
My take is - One learns from one's own inner quest. Trading is transcendental. The more you know yourself, the better trader you become. Everyone can be a good trader but very few will because, few are ready, prepared and patient to toil to find the true depth :)
SMALL VS LARGEI have given thought to this and this is my opinion.
>>>>>Small account
In order to grow a small account to sustainable levels, higher risk will be applied compared to a large account.
What i mean by this is, 1-2% monthly gain can be sustainable on a large account but on a small account that would be insignificant.
To bridge this gap one has to increase position sizing, increasing the risk & the draw-down.
Overall :
High exposure to risk .
High draw-down.
High monthly % returns targets.
Harder to grow.
>>>>Large account
Low risk
Low monthly % target returns.
Low draw-down.
Safer.
This makes growing a small account difficult to grow compared to maintaining a large account.
If one was to apply the same risk used in a small account to a large account then it too, will be subjected to the same conditions hence making it a 'small account' from the traders view point.
These are just my opinions and maybe flawed from another persons point of view.
BLOW UPSHARD STOPS
Hard stops on a strategy with low sharpe & low win rate only drains the account.
RISK A FIXED % PER TRADE.
Every trade has it own unique exposure to risk. Risking a certain % means K is constant.
This might not work most of the time.
NO STOPS
Averaging down,up/Martingale for profit with no exit plan.
The strategy mostly relies on estimating the risk then factoring it on position sizing.
Truth its pretty hard to get the exact risk even on a high win rate.
How far does it go before calling it quits or must you it end in profit & keep the high win rate?
These are just my opinions and maybe flawed from another persons point of view.
EURUSD Quick Short Trade *LEARN TO TRADE MARKET GAPS*I have recently had a lot of success trading the weekend market gaps forming on a few major FX currency pairs so I thought I would show you another example and explain it in more detail.
Market gaps most commonly occur when price moves quicker than the market or, in the case of weekends, when the market is closed. Things happen in the market over the weekend so when Sunday evening trading opens, price has normally moved or "gapped" away from the close price on Friday.
I don't trade every gap I see in the market and that is because of how the gap forms as part of the prevailing trend that is showing. I always try to trade with the trend and use market gaps as a discounted way of entering into a normal trend following trade.
This example is on EURUSD.
The market gaps upon opening and is now around 20 pips higher than the close price on Friday. This is good because the price has gapped up when I have the bearish trend marked on the chart with the lower highs and bearish TL. A gap up means I can enter short and be onside with the current bearish trend. This seriously helps with profitability and success in the long term.
My confluences for taking this trade are:
- RSI showing over bought.
- Price is around daily pivot level.
- Bearish trendline
- Lower highs and lows.
I always place my Stoploss 10 pips above the current high when taking my pivot trades and I have used this same method for these quick gap trades.
Profit Targets:
My TP1 is always set to the Friday close price. This means the gap has been fulfilled.
TP2 is set at the daily S1 level. This is taken from my day trading strategy because if there is a lot of momentum then it makes sense to ride it out for more profit.
TP3 is set at the daily S2 level if there is still enough bearish momentum to make it there.
R:R Ratios:
- If price makes it to TP1 then that is a very simple 2:1 trade.
- TP2 would make the trade a 4:1 trade.
- TP3 would make this trade over 6:1 R:R which is crazy but sometimes possible if there enough momentum in the markets.
Thanks for reading and I hope this helps at least a few of you to start spotting and trading market gaps. They really are very good to help you get a head start on the week ahead and lock in a few % profit before Monday has even began!
Psych Hack #0005 - Learning to play.In this educational screencast I answer some of the issues I've been asked about by new traders. I emphasise in that profitability it is not mainly about methodology or indicators. It is about something pretty nebulous and unseen.
This post is compliant with Tradingview's house rules on text based posts.
What I Think About TA, And Why I Love ItJust wanted to do a short video on the Bitcoin chart about how I feel about TA - what I think it is and also why I find it interesting. I hope someone finds this video interesting as well, and I'm curious to hear people's thoughts.
This is not financial advice. This is purely an educational video, and it's based on my own observations, assumptions, and opinions.
-Victor Cobra