Educational
EURAUD Full Analysis & Short-term & Long-term Prediction !#1, We want to see short-term downside until we find nice buy opportunity. We are still in bullish trend !
#2, For now, We look for sell from the above resistance area.
Relate this idea with your setup and see if its connecting something similar.
This publishing is for educational purpose only.
EURJPY Full Analysis & Short-term & Long-term Prediction !By seeing the current price action all the way from the higher timeframes, we can predict more downside after short-term upside gains !
Relate the above chart analysis with your skill.
This publishing is just for educational purpose only.
EURGBP Full Analysis & Short-Term & Long-Term Look !Simple ! Relate the chart by your own skill.
This publishing is just for educational purpose only.
TRON -- For Educational purposes only. For Educational purposes only. Not to be taken as Financial advice.
Conscious Competence Ladder – Stage of Newbie to ProThe model focusses on the interplay between awareness and competence and identifies 4 clear stages:
Unconsciously incompetent – we don’t know that we don’t have this skill, or that we need to learn it.
Consciously incompetent – we know that we don’t have this skill.
Consciously competent – we know that we have this skill.
Unconsciously competent – we don’t know that we have this skill (it just seems easy).
TRADING IS NOT AS IT’S PORTRAYED ON SOCIAL MEDIA .. READ BELOWThe reason so many people are attracted to trading is because of how it is portrayed on social media. I’m not here to Bullsh#t you, I am only here to deliver pure facts and that is how YOU WILL LEARN.
Firstly, the most us were attracted to trading because of how simple it seemed to actually make money, until we started trading and realised that it wasn’t that simple.. And this may be the stage you are currently at so let me clarify a few things that will hopefully help you in your trading journey.
Your trading account is YOUR business, treat it like one it is not quick money! A business goes through stages of a life cycle, and these are the stages you must go through too before you figure it out:
1. Development / Seed stage
2. Start up
3. Growth / Survival stage – Your most crucial stage
4. Expansion / Rapid growth stage
5. Maturity stage
6. Decline – The moment you stop learning and think you have it figured it out, is the moment you will decline.
Trading is process that may take you 1 year to master If you have the right mentor or even up to 5 years to master if you don’t. But it is a process, you will take losses through the process but that is necessary for success. You have to trust the process and FALL IN LOVE with it.
If you are trading for the sole purpose of making money then you approach is wrong. I trade because it is my passion, it gives me the opportunity to figure out the ‘uncertainty’ and to empower others. The profits are the end result of obeying your trading rules/plan and obeying the unspoken rules of the market.
KEY TAKEWAYS:
1. Trading is a PROCESS, stick with it, be consistent and it will pay off.
2. Find a mentor who has YOUR best interests before theirs.
3. Your trading account is your business, approach is as one. Businesses take years to reach the maturity level so make the same mental shift
4. Focus on the bigger picture, money is an end result. It happens after the fact, after you’ve taken and closed a trade.
I will be doing analysis on GBPUSD, some potential big moves to come.. Follow us to get notified.
Feel free to ask any questions below.
ARE YOU LOSING IN THE MARKET? THEN READ BELOW Losing is inevitable. To be a successful trader you must truly truly understand this. Look back at my analysis. I have both winners and losers and I absolutely love them both.
Why do i love my losses? Because I don’t see them as losses, I see them as lessons. Every set up that doesn’t go as I anticipated is crucial information that I must study and this is truly what has made me good technically speaking. I learn from my mistakes and I don’t repeat them.
Second most important fact is Risk Management which ALLOWS me to learn from my losses. If my trade goes bad and I lose 1% or 2% on a trade, I don’t feel bad , I simply move on to the next trade and take the information the market has given me and STUDY it. The moment I risk more than 2% and the trades goes bad is the moment my mental being shifts, the emotions start rolling in. I want to close but the trade is valid, I get scared, question why I didn’t risk less etc and I’m sure you can all relate to this. Once this happens, it’s very hard to study the losing trade because you now associate it with pain and you avoid looking back at it at all costs.
KEY TAKEAWAYS:
1. To succeed you must fail, to succeed after failure, you must gain experience from your failures.
2. In order to gain experience form your failures, you must manage your risk, by managing your risk, you are controlling your emotions, by controlling your emotions you are allowing yourself to think analytically.
3. Trading is game of probabilities not guarantees. Every trade only has a 50% chance of winning.
Introduction to Elliott Wave Theory - Waves Identification (2)The SPX daily chart, corresponds to an example of the third article about Waves identification.
Introduction to the Elliott Wave Theory - IdentificationThis chart corresponds to our third article covering the Elliott Wave Theory.
SIMPLE educational POST about DXY and how to USE it!Today I have told you to close the position of NZD/USD in profit before it went up.
Why did I do this? Because I`m checking correlations.
Whenever you trade a MAJOR-PAIR with USD/XXX or XXX/USD do make sure to use the US-DOLLAR-INDEX (DXY) to check it for valid inter-market-correlations for your asset.
Whether it`s a positive or negative correlation - you can always take advantage of the correlation if there is one.
In this case, the negative correlation was more than obvious.
Try it yourself.
Fun fact:
The weighting of EURO is currently at 56,7%.
The US-DOLLAR-INDEX is actuall USD/EUR.
You don`t believe? Check it!
LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me.
Any questions? PM me. :-)
EURCHF7:34 PM Overcame previous resistance zones. We are still on the trend. For counter-retail traders, it seems that a breakout is still far from happening on this pair. As per my analysis, give this a few weeks if there will be any engulfing bull candles or a breakout on the trend.
KEEP IT SIMPLE !!!!! THE ANSWERS ARE RIGHT THERE !!!!!!Its easy to get carried away and over analyse our charts, but a lot of the time all we need to do is keep it simple; our biggest barrier is our emotions. ALWAYS KEEP THEM IN CHECK x
The Power of The Trend Line. In this piece I'm going to shed some light on the most basic, and yet, most overlooked TA tool to exist in chart analysis, the Trend Line. A trend line is a simple way to plot the price path of any asset. By connecting a set of lows or highs you can see the general direction the price of an asset is moving.
Looking at the daily chart of Bitcoin we can see the bear market of 2018. By simply connecting the two first definable peaks (Beginning of March and May), we plot a line that dictates the price movement for the rest of the year. On multiple occasions, the trend line rejected the price and simply shorting off this trend line would have reaped huge profits. Most interestingly, however, is what happened at the beginning of April 2019. For the first time in over a year the price started trading above the trend line for a few days, what followed was an explosive rally of more than 25% in a single day. I remember clearly when this happened everyone was stabbing in the dark for reasons why Bitcoin was rallying. All kinds of Eliot wave theories and Fibonacci fans were being plotted and people were citing irrelevant news as the catalyst behind the rally. However, once again the teachings of Occam's razor had me looking at the simple violation of the downtrend line.
Trend lines are not only a dominant force on long term charts. Let's look at the BTC 4 hour chart.
If we plot a line with the two peaks from June 26 and July 10 respectively, we get a trend line. Then in early August as the price was moving up, where do you think we would run into resistance? Precisely on the predetermined trend line. Not a coincidence.
Next, let's look at an even shorter time frame, the 1 hour BTC chart.
From July 30 - August 9 the price rode a trend line that could be plotted within the first few days. Then on August 10th we started trading beneath the trend line, what followed was a swift 20% correction.
Now let's look at the 5 min chart of the current price movement.
The two lows on August 15th and 16th can be used to plot and uptrend line, and look what follows....
The longer you look, the more of these examples of this you can find, on almost any time frame with almost any asset. Markets are driven mostly by human psychology and that is why these trend lines are so dominant. They can help to identify the most optimal point to enter an up or down trend, predict tops and bottoms of short term rallies, and be an accurate gauge of market conditions.
Elliott Wave Chart Patterens Hi Traders,
These patterns can be seen in long term as well as short term charts. Ideally, smaller patterns can be identified within bigger patterns.
How to trade Bitcoin with RSI in a bear marketHere's a few helpful tips I have learned trading RSI in a bear market.
Watch for trends and act accordingly. Open shorts at good entry points with a stop loss right above it. If your stop is hit, do not panic. Just admit you were wrong and go long/buy into the trend if the buying volume and price action is strong enough.
For shorting, watch for the RSI bounces. A first bounce below 30 RSI is your trigger point. The second bounce will usually result in a lower low and you can sell there to take profits.
Wait for your buy signal at 60 RSI again (or wherever your pattern fits) and repeat.
For the chart:
Blue boxes = short open boxes.
Red lines = set stop losses above each blue box.
Green boxes at first drop through 30 RSI = trigger boxes to get ready to sell.
Yellow boxes at 2nd bounce after 30 RSI boxes = short close.
Go long if stop is hit and if buying volume/price action is strong.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE A major mistake traders make is to assume that in order to be profitable you need to use so many tools and it's in fact the opposite.
Let's start off with basic support resistance. We know the market moves up, down and side ways. But it never moves straight up or down. As it moves up or down it will meet levels of support and resistance. It's important you understand where these levels are on which ever pairs you trade.
SUPPORT - you will meet points of support mainly in a downtrend. As pointed out above, you can see there are more points of support than resistance. So remember support will appear below price, below the candlesticks. see it as the floor of the chart.
RESISTANCE - You will meet points of resistance mainly in an uptrend, support is the 'roof' it will appear above price. Price meets head on with resistance levels.
Previous support/resistance turning into future resistance/support - Previous support can turn into future resistance, this is where price will break through this support in a downtrend and the come back and retest this level ( as shown in the chart above) . This previous support is now resistance. This also applies the other way around.
Support and resistance levels are points within the market where price will pivot. There are also levels in the market where price will gain momentum before continuing a move.
You always want to plot these levels on the higher time frames as the levels on the higher time frames will hold more significance. i.e. support on the daily time frame will hold a lot significance than support on the 1hr time frame.
Hit that follow button for more stuff to come..
BTC - Treacherous Slippery Slopes"BTC is not out of the woods yet!!" What a ducking cliche to say!!!
While there are many analysts forecasting moves up to 12k or 14k and beyond already(though very plausible), it will definitely not happen from the current levels i.e. 10.8k. Two important trendlines on the way up haven't been touched yet and BTC never leaves a trendline untouched!
10.9k area is very cruicial, a break and close above on the daily will signal move towards 12k.
Close below 10.9k area leaves us with the Treacherous Slippery Slopes scenario. Right now BTC is hanging by a thin thread above the two trendlines extending from above as shown with the dotted red lines(resistance). Though it seems BTC is above it, it doesn't mean the resistance is overcome yet.
At this point we are presented with five probabilities:
BTC could close above 10.9k and move to test 11.5k which is the first resistance above (not so slippery scenario)
BTC could wick upwards to 11.5k before close but still close below 10.9k (very slippery - fakeout scenario)
BTC could choose to bounce between the dotted red lines until a slow touchdown on the green trendlines (not the good kind of slippery scenario)
BTC could close below 10.9k, wick down to the green trendlines(support) and quickly move upwards to 11.5k (my favourite kind of slippery scenario, slip in without getting noticed)
Well, now that I've broken it down for you, all you need to do is decide how you want to slide these slopes.
Oh, last but not the least, 7.4k is a very important level which should not be breached. If BTC seems to be targetting that, I shall publish another idea with more details.
May you reap all the profits you can! Break a leg!
ISH recap with my strategyThe best way to win, is not to lose. Back test your strategy and see how many losers you can eliminate. That is what blows up your account.
the hardest thing to do is remove emotion, believe me, I struggle with it too. Recognize when it happens, take a step back and review your strategy.
Trade safe,
mnovo
Why Supply and Demand Works (US Dollar Index DXY example)The real reason why supply and demand works.
For the US dollar index its not hard to read there was a massive drop from the big red candle (creating a supply area) and it is now making its way up to the initial price drop area. Based on Elliott wave pull back method we can foresee the 5 waves almost being played out except that we will still have to wait for no higher high and V formation before taking the sell. But have you ever wonder why the sell will work? If you are so confident that your trade is going to work, it WILL work.
When I was a high school student at age of 16 I opened up my first business selling GPS units. I branded my GPS as "Stevu", dreaming one day I might be competing with New Zealand's GPS tycoon Navman. At first there was only myself selling GPS, I could sell it for $300 NZ dollar per unit. However, soon I realised that other people start selling GPS as well. For $300 NZ dollar per unit no one would buy from me anymore. The person next door would sell it for $250, if I still want my business running I would then have to reduce it to $200. Not long after my new price I noticed that 10 more people start selling it and they've set their new price to $60 per unit. Given that it cost me to buy each unit (including shipping) $55, there is no way I could make money anymore. So my first business got shut down and I had to work for KFC to cook chicken for two years.
The same logic and concept apply to Forex, Stock, Commodities. Everything in our life is related with supply and demand, including every single business. Currency is a essentially a product. When a product is in demand, the price rises, if the same product is over supplied, the price will drop.
The big bearish red candle is revealed to us as "the market has over supply of US dollar, there is way more sellers than buyers". In order for the sellers to sell product they will have to reset competitive prices for buyer to buy US dollar. These sellers in real life are considered as "Goldman, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, other investment banks and even hedge funds".
These banks would put say for instance one billion worth of sell limit orders at the price of 97.44. But there aren't enough buyers to digest them all at once, only 1/3 of the entire orders would create a massive unbalance of buying and selling forces. the price then drops as indicated on chart.
When the price climb its way back to similar level (around 97.44), we all agree that there are still 2/3 orders being placed at 97.44, which is why every time the price reach 97.44 it bounces back (not a single pipe more). This is a good indication that this supply area is very robust. If you are going to do the sell, do you all agree that it would be much safer to sell with these investment banks (institutions)? Of course the answer is yes.
But before that We must accept that there must be a V formation to take out the buyers, in this chart it is revealed as the pink area. On the contrary there is also buying orders being set at such price. You will HAVE TO wait patiently until these orders gets consumed before taking the sell.
I hope these explains the whole logic. If you have questions or doubt please feel free to leave any comment.
Good Luck
Steven
