VIDEO / NZDJPY / HOW TO PLAY BOTH SIDES OF THE MARKET Contents of Video:
1) How I approach looking for a Bearish and Bullish outcome on my trades
2) Identifying actual trade triggers that make me take one side over the other
3) How you can easily switch from being a bear to a bull and vice versa
4) Go back on your losing trades!! Spot the reversal patterns that caused you to get stopped out. Apply this hindsight to your future trades
Educational
VIDEO / HOW I SETUP MY WATCHLIST FOR THE WEEKVideo Contents:
How I use the same concepts over and over to setup my watchlist each week (forex, indices, commodities, metals, crypto)
* I focus on finding high-probability trade setups with good risk to reward
* These setups can be either trend reversals or trend continuations. The actual direction of the setup doesn't matter
* What does matter is WHERE on the chart these setups occur
Enjoy :)
How to Simply Spot MACD Trend and Benefit from Histogram.Welcome back to my another Educational post.
I really do appreciate all support I got in my previous Educational material about MACD, so I am bringing you some more useful Education simply explained about MACD .
As I was doing my next Bitcoin Technical Analysis, I was looking a bit more into MACD and thought, I would explain to you a little bit more about how MACD works.
How trends are creating, when they start or end, what to consider as support or ressistance on fast lane, how to benefit from histogram.
Lets start with Histogram.
Its really all about those commas, lets start by splitting the histogram to two sides.
Positive - upper, when histogram is positive, fast lane is on buy signal.
Negative - lower, when histogram is negative, fast lane is on sell signal.
In simple histogram shows the overall volume which is in dominance, for example long positive comma represent strong buying volume in one specific timeframe.
Histogram also has his own support and ressistance levels.
You can also consider Histogram as wave indicator .
At Positive histogram, the tallest comma represent ressistance .
You can find ressistance when the next comma in uptrend is lower than previous, forming downtrend .
You can also find support at Positive histogram, basically when in downtrend is one comma taller than previous one , uptrend is being formed.
At Negative histogram its the same thing, just rotated .
So the tallest histogram comma represent that support was found forming uptrend .
When a next comma is taller than previous one, it means ressistance was found forming downtrend .
Lets follow it up by fast (blue) and slow (orange) lane on macd.
Fast lane is known as signal line.
When is fast lane is above slow lane, this gives a buy signa l and also the slow lane can be considered as support , and as you know each succesful test lead the price higher.
When fast is lane is below slow lane , this gives a sell signal and also the slow lane lane can be considered as ressistance , and as you know each unsuccesful test lead price lower .
MACD and Histogram are pretty close connected together as they are giving similiar signals, making signal easier to spot together.
When MACD lanes are high is harder for them to cross and give buy signal as i ncreasing demand is required , same is valid for low or oversold macd, its easier for low macd lane to give buy signal as less demand is required.
I think thats all important information about MACD for now , everything else should be explained on the chart with the help of Legend.
Hope you liked this Education about MACD and more close look on histogram and his purpose. None of this contect was copied, and its all written by me.
Hope I havent missed anything important , if yes point it in comments .
If I have learned you anything that you are able to benefit from and be a bit better trader , let me know by smashing that agree button , each like is very appreciated as I am doing this for FREE and it took me a LOT of time, Thanks a Lot !
HOW TO BUILD YOUR CONFIDENCE AS A TRADER (WIN BIG & LOSE SMALL)** In the video I say EURO / Swiss Pound. I think I meant to say Swiss FRANC ** :)
This video is meant to cover a really important topic that I think holds back most people from being successful in the markets. In this video I cover:
1) There's a difference between being a good analyst and being a good trader
2) How to empower yourself by learning to trust your analysis
3) 3 optimal trading environments and how top-down timeframe analysis lets us identify which environment we are in
If you find this video helpful, please leave a like and a comment!
Good luck out there and remember ALWAYS win BIG and lose SMALL :)
Discussion: Three Falling Peaks Pattern ! Discussion: Three Falling Peaks Pattern
Identification Guidelines:
Trading Tactics
Link Prior analysis GBPUSD
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( Link: Textbook Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, 2Ed, page 684-697)
Please support the setup with your likes, comments and by following on TradingView.
Thanks
How does Bitcoin work? | Introduction to Bitcoin and BlockchainIntroduction
Bitcoin, the world largest digital currency, was launched in 2009 and currently reached a market cap of over 200 billion dollars. But still, most of the people don’t understand how it actually works, so this is why we are here.
Unlike the fiat currencies that we are familiar with, owned or controlled by central banks, Bitcoin has no central authority. But what happens when I don’t have a central authority to verify that everyone is actually doing his job and following the network rules?
How to prevent the double spending without the central group? How to automatically keep tracking of all balances and transactions?
How it works:
Bitcoin as a network runs on a protocol known as the blockchain. Each blockchain is unique to each individual user and his/her personal bitcoin wallet.
To get a digital network we need accounts, balances and to make a transaction. Until now it is easy to understand. One big problem every payment provider needs to solve, its own name, Double Spending.
The same amount spent twice, usually prevented and monitored by a central group, that keeps track on the balances. In a decentralized network, you do not have this group, so everyone who is related to the network has a job to do.
All bitcoin transactions are logged and made available in a public ledger and must be verified by miners on the blockchain, helping ensure their authenticity and preventing fraud; prevent transactions from being duplicated and people from copying bitcoins.
While every Bitcoin records the digital address of every wallet it touches, the bitcoin system does NOT record the names of the individuals who own wallets.
Current status
Satoshi Nakamoto was the first one, not only to answer all of those questions – but actually to make others thoughts into a reality. His system has been proven in achieving consensus without any central group.
The confirmation is a critical concept in the cryptocurrency system. The transaction is known in the whole network almost in the same moment it placed. However, only after a specific time, it will be confirmed.
It can not be reversed and it becomes officially part of the blockchain.
The only one who can confirm the transactions are the miners, that’s their role in the cryptocurrency-network.
They receive the transactions, verify them and spread them in the whole network. The miners get rewarded with a token of the crypto-network they are involved in, for example with Bitcoins in the Bitcoin network.
New Crypto Course: readbtc.com
Buy Bitcoin via Credit Card: readbtc.com
Need a Plan? Get an Expert: readbtc.com
Important Candlestick Pattern Definitions!Hello followers and other TradingView users!
In this topic, I would like to describe some candlestick pattern to find confirmation on the strong price levels!
"Engulfing"
The Engulfing pattern is a two-candle reversal pattern. A reversal pattern that can be bearish or
bullish, depending upon whether it appears at the end of an uptrend (bearish engulfing pattern) or a
downtrend (bullish engulfing pattern). The first day is characterized by a small body, followed by a
day whose body completely engulfs the previous day's body and closes in the opposite direction of
the trend.
"Railroad Tracks"
A bearish railway track pattern has the first candlestick bullish and the second candlestick bearish.
That fact that there’s a sudden change from bullish to bearish candlestick should be a good indication
that there might be a bearish trend forming. If you see it on the levels of resistance or downward
trendlines the more powerful it is!
"Morning Star"
The morning star is a bullish, bottom reversal pattern. It warns of weakness in a downtrend that could
potentially lead to a trend reversal. The morning star consists of three candlesticks with the middle candlestick
forming a star. The first candlestick in the morning star pattern must be a red candlestick with a relatively
large real body. The second candlestick is the star, which has a short real body that is separated from the
real body of the first candlestick. The star does not need to form below the low of the first candlestick and
can exist within the lower shadow of that candlestick. The star is the first indication of weakness as
it indicates that the sellers were not able to drive the price close much lower than the close of the previous period.
This weakness is confirmed by the third candlestick, which must be green in colour and must close 50% above from the body of the first candlestick.
"Evening Star"
The Evening Star is a bearish, top trend reversal pattern that warns of a potential reversal of an uptrend. It is the opposite of the Morning Star and,
like the morning star, consists of three candlesticks, with the middle candlestick being a star. The first candlestick in the evening star must be green in
colour and must have a relatively large real body. The second candlestick is the star, which is a candlestick with a short real body that does not touch
the real body of the preceding candlestick. The star can also form within the upper shadow of the first candlestick. The star is the first indication of weakness as it indicates that the buyers were
unable to push the price up to close much higher than the close of the previous period. This weakness is confirmed by the candlestick that follows the star.
This candlestick must be a red candlestick and must close 50% above from the body of the first candlestick.
"Hammer"
The Hammer is a bullish reversal pattern, which signals that an asset is nearing a bottom in a
downtrend. The body of the candle is short with a longer lower shadow (wick) which is a sign of
sellers driving prices lower during the trading session, only to be followed by strong buying pressure
to end the session on a higher close.
"Shooting Star"
A shooting star is a bearish candle with a long upper shadow, little or no lower shadow and a small
real body near the day's low. It comes after an uptrend. For a candlestick to be considered a shooting star, the formation
must be on an upward or bullish trend, and the distance between the highest price for the day and the opening price must
be more than twice as large as the shooting star's body. The distance between the lowest price for the day and the closing price must be very small or nonexistent.
Harmonic Patterns - Gartley - Approach 01- AB has to touch the 0.618 of XA, but cannot touch to the 0.786 of XA
- BC has to touch the 0.618 of AB, but cannot go above the A
There are a few ways to look for D. In this approach, it is:
- Put a Fib Retracement from X to B.
- Put a Trend-Based Fib Retracement from A to B to A
- If the 0.718 and 1.272 are close to each other choose, 0.718
- Else, choose the 1.272
Targets
- the 0.382 or the 0.618 of Fib Retracement from A to D.
Stop
- X or 10 pips below
XAU --- Rules for trading the breakoutMy rules for trading this simple breakout pattern.
1. At least 5 points of contact within the pattern.
2. A breakout out of the pattern. This creates what I call the "Breakout Point" which is formed at the low wick of the candle.
3. Regardless of what price does after, we must see a breakout past the "Breakout Point." Regardless if we get a retest or not.
Risk to Reward Ratio of at least 1:1
Risk 2-3% capital.
Happy Trading!
Harmonic Patterns - BAT- (AB) has to cross the 0.5 of the (XA), but cannot touch to 0.618 of (XA)
- (BC) has to cross the 0.618 of the (AB), but cannot close above of A
- (CD) is expected to be flagged at 0.886 of (XA)
- The first target is the 0.382 of the A to D
- The second target is the 0.618 of the A to D
- Stop is usually put to 20 pips below of X
Make Tradingview your Asset to PROFITS - Steps to FollowFOREMOST....
this is NOT a hate post to discredit valued publications of 'HONEST' Tradingview members
It is a cautionary advisement.. to educate new traders and open your eyes
So you are NEW to trading.. or new to Tradingview
This makes you easily influenced.. because let's face it..
- you are eager to learn
- you want to learn from the best
- you want profitable trades
- you want it all.. and NOW ::LOL::
so did I when I first started trading...
but since learned to trust my own calls above everyone else's.
Though I depend on GOOD TA from others to 'check' my baselines...
my 75% success in trading and ability to make a living doing this...
also comes from the fact I am former psychotherapist...
and marketing expert who owned a finance company with 100 brokers...
My therapist nature is what motivated me to share this knowledge.
Wisdom: The more you give in life, the more you are rewarded.
--- Outline of this Ongoing Education ---
Please resist the urge to skip sections of this reading
As much as you think you know...
You are bound to hear something New and Valuable:
SECTIONS 1 - 3
- Locate a balanced variety of IDEAS on Tradingview
- Psychology of Members who Post
- Vetting Quality Content: Member Agendas, Bias & Ego, Reliability & Frequency
SECTIONS 4 -7
- Trading Methods that Work, but OTHERS may NOT tell you
- Methods that WORK in this 2018 Market & Reliability
- Combining KNOWN methods - Testing NEW Ones
- Deriving your Own Method
SECTIONS 8-9
- Hate Comments = Trader Mind Poison/How to FLAG/Remove BAD comments
- How to intelligently add conversation in IDEA rooms and GAIN reputation
SECTION 1 - Finding Valuable 'IDEAS' on TRADING VIEW
Tradingview uses a secret formula to determine the top publishers of the day, week, month
It is based on categories, not just performance.
Unfortunately, there is NO quality control with this method.. and even worse, the more someone
is recognized as a top author, the more they cement their rating in the top publisher box.
NOT saying there is a better way to do this. but as a new member, you need to know its shortcomings.
To find a better sampling and some of the BEST work on Tradingview, can take more work.
It requries random search; utilizing the less convenient tools on this site.
The sidebar on the far right when you first log in will show TOP authors.
Go beyond that, by searching the columns with the most CURRENT publications
Explore new idea posts by unknowns; then follow the ones that interest you.
As your follow list builds..
Warning: the limit is 30. Your favorites will DROP OFF if you are not careful
Keep your follow list for the ones who matter most to you and cut loose the less valuable.
Edit your email and notifications for what they publish.
DO NOT overwhelm yourself (for example, I stopped email notifications and just read my sidebar)
Suggestion for easier tracking of information:
I actually make my browwer LOG into Tradingview four times whenever the browser loads.
If you do NOT know how to do this, go to GOOGLE, name your brower... followed by HOW DO I...
On my brower, each of the four log ins to Tradingview has a different customization.
I switch between browser tabs to review each variation.
Of second most importance is the RIGHT PANEL views of the different topics.
This includes CRYPTO NEWS.. which is VERY important.
If anyone tells you otherwise, they are dead WRONG.
I make sure to visit four different pane categories several times a day.
SETCION 2 - Vetting IDEA Publishers
Regardles of popularity of a member, to find the best quality forecasts and advice, you must consider
the mind state and health of the publisher
Ego
- do they rant:
goes off the original topic before the conclusion is drawn clearly
creates new thought tangents not relevant to the subject
are their sentence structures hard to follow (almost non-sensical)
are they
Educational Lesson on RSII have seen many traders recently use this in a questionable manner and I don't want new traders to get the wrong idea.
I have briefly explained how I use the indicator and what ways it could be useful to you.
This is not the only way I use it I do confirm it with other signals that I have not mentioned in the video but as the Joker says in the Dark Knight
'if your good at something, never do it for free'
Hope it helps
EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL- Bitcoin I was thinking about this educational material for a long time and finally I have the chance to share it with you, all of you who want to improve your trading style, to be more profitable. This is specially for those who find it too difficult to trade and everything goes against them. I spent years to improve myself and become profitable, starting from the bottom, never had a personal teacher and never went to a finance university, learning everything by myself. A lot of times I wished to have someone who could help me or give me some tips but I had to learn everything on the hard way
I will start with the thing that I think is the most important in profitable trading .
Price action. Listen, there are a lot of strategies out there which work, everybody has their own style. Boolinger bands, pitchforks, heikin ashi candles, renko and dozens of indicators. All indicators are made from price action; open/close high/low of candlesticks.
Price action is the most important tool for a trader. It is used by institutional traders, by big houses and is the most accurate indicator of an asset, for the next move. And here I will teach you how to use price action in your favor.
On a daily chart, you can put a moving average to see clear how is the trend. Is there a bullish market, bearish market or ranging. Let’s see for example on my chart the 20 period Exponential moving average. After price action, the 20- period EMA is very important, especially on a daily chart for bitcoin because it acted like a resistance for many times this year. You can check the chart. Why not a single top trader from TV is using or telling something about it is a mistery for me. Few days ago I could bet the last move up will find difficulties to march further when it touches the 20 EMA. So simple. Let’s go back on price action. I marked on my chart LOWER HIGHS and LOWER LOWS. When you see a market moving like this you don’t want to go LONG until this trend is over or is bouncing back from a strong trend line.
First rule of a reversal; keep this in mind: If there is a downtrend the price has to make a higher low and then a higher high for a clear confirmation of reversal. In case we have a trend line wich acts like a support and if price bounces from it we don’t need to wait for a higher low and higher high. Let’s say we exclude that trend line, for a revearsal, usually the price needed to stay above the previous low made on 28th of May at 7065 dollars; then move higher than the previous LOWER HIGH marked by me with yellow, and after that a retest of it. Retests of the previous lower high usually occur and that is a clear confirmation of a revearsal. This is the most important weapon you need to master to be profitable in trading.
Same thing is when the trend changes from moving up to go down. First, you have HH and HL , then usually fails to make a higher high, it drops lower than the previous low, goes a little bit up again to retest the previous low and boom, trend is changed, the market is falling. Perfect example look for Bitcoin’s price action from 25th of February to thirtheen of march (on a daily time frame- is easier on the beginning because it takes out the noise).
Look for trendlines, try to analyse how long can you do it to see everything, the details. Support and resistance zones are very important also, look at my chart white dotted lines around 7800. See how the marked reacted around them and try to memorise. You have to learn the chart patterns. The most of the time you will see wedges, flags and triangles and around revearsal zones there will be double tops, bottoms, head&shoulders. Try to learn them and practice to recognize them because it will be easier for you in future, helping you to know where the price will go. There are a lot of tutorials about chart patterns on the internet.
BTCUSDT Short Education/ Attention: New traders this is for you.In this example I am showing how to spot a short setup and when to enter a position.
As you can see BTC broke the lower trend line giving us something to keep an eye on. After the first initial candle broke the trend line you would have wanted to wait until either:
1. You had confirmation at that moment the trend was down before entering a position. Maybe some indicators led you to believe this.
2. Wait for one or two more candles to form. Maybe the indicators aren't really telling you much and its hard to make a decision.
The target's for this short position could have been T1 @ 7536 and T2 @7489
Those targets would have given you a very nice R:R of 5.25
In these scenarios its all about waiting for confirmation. If you don't you can get badly trapped and lose a lot of money.
We are all about making good trades on confluence.
Only Need To be Right 50% of the Time Ripple (XRP)Risk management is VERY important, especially in crypto. If you don't know how to manage your money you will likely lose a whole lot. Take ripple for example from 4/24 - 5/09. We can see it trading in a sideways channel. Channel simply refers to the area in which the price is contained. It has this sideways rectangular shape. If you don't understand support and resistance levels then read my last post linked below.
So first establish your support and resistance levels.
Next step, buy at your support zone.
Next, sell at your resistance zone.
But how do we protect our money if the price breaks support?
We use a stop loss to automatically sell our coins if it reaches a certain level. Unlike a limit order which can only be set above the price, a stop loss can be set below the current price. We use this in case the trade moves against our favor. Typically I will set my stop loss slightly below our most current support level. Why? If the price ends up falling more than anticipated we hope that it will find support before it hits our stop loss.
Since we can see the potential profit if we were to buy at support and sell at resistance we can ensure that we have a good risk to reward ratio. We need to have a minimum of a 1:1 ratio but ideally we want a 2:1 ratio or more. What these means is we have the chance to make twice as much as we could possibly lose.
So imagine a situation where for every time you are correct you will win $20. Every time you are wrong you lose $10. So you win double what you lose.That's a 2:1 ratio. Lets say out of 10 times you are correct 5 times so 50% of the time. 5 times $20 is $100. So now you have $100. However you lost 5 times, so you lose a total of $50. So your net profit is $50 ($100-$50). Even though you were only right 50% of the time you are still profitable. The higher your risk to reward ratio, the less amount of times you have to be correct. What you should strive for is at least a 2:1 ratio. If your ratio is less than that then considering sitting on the sidelines.
In our XRP situation you can see we have the chance to win 6% if we are correct and a possibility of losing 3%. This is a 2:1 ratio. This is how you should approach channels as well as support and resistance levels. If there's a good ratio and based on your analyse you think it will bounce at support then take the chance and sell at resistance.
Support and Resistance Levels For Beginners Tron (TRX)This post is meant for traders who may not understand support and resistance levels, how we establish these lines and why they're a useful tool.
Support refers to an area that is likely to cause a bounce or a trend reversal to the upside.
Resistance refers to an area that is likely to reject the price or cause a trend reversal to the downside.
So how do establish these lines? First we find an area where price struggles to break above (resistance) or an area that price stops and enters an upwards movement (support). Rather than draw one horizontal line that represents support/resistance, in my opinion it's better to have a "zone". The zone is essentially the area where a majority of the price find support or hits resistance. Price won't always reverse at the same exact point so we need to have a general idea of where support and resistance are. Sometimes yes, one support/resistance line will be enough and it will hit the same point more than once. For the most part, a zone gives you a better idea of where to buy.
On the left side support is created by the lowest part of the candle (the wick). The top of support is created by the body of the candle. These two lines give us our support zone. Think of support as a trampoline. As price falls we expect it to bounce up. Does this always happen? No. Sometimes price smashes straight through support. The more you trade the more you'll learn which support lines are likely to hold and which ones will fail. But even then no one is 100% accurate. The more times price hits these levels the "weaker" the level gets eventually failing. So the first support lines we draw would not have been know until AFTER we see the price bounce up. Once price establishes that low we can then draw horizontal lines across the chart so we know that if prices begins to retrace to those levels then we can see a possible bounce. Since we know price could possible bounce in a support area we can set out buy orders in that zone.
As for resistance we will generally draw our horizontal line across the highest price action. If price breaks through the resistance we can expect a rally to follow. Think of resistance as a ceiling. Price is rising and then boom it crashes into the ceiling causing it to fall back down. Price can then try again to break through this ceiling, if it does then a rally is likely to follow, otherwise known as a breakout. Note that once price breaks through resistance, the resistance now becomes a support level. The area that acted as a ceiling will now act as the trampoline. Be cautious of false breakouts. This is when price breaks resistance but then ends up falling back below resistance.
It's important to understand that support and resistance can be drawn just about anywhere. The key is to find the major support and resistance zones.
So now look at where price is currently at. Look at the support zone that's just below it and look at the resistance zone above it. If price begins to fall would you buy in the support zone? If price begins to rise, would you target the resistance zone as your sell target? Take a minute to look at the chart and decide what you would do. The answer to this depends on more than a support and resistance zone. Like I've said, you can't rely on one tool to give you all the answers. Use what you now know about support and resistance to help guide your trades. Remember support/resistance can fail without warning. Without risk, there is no reward. Buy at support, sell at resistance
Bitcoin - Why Most Traders Lose In This Market - Sentiment CycleHello Traders,
In this educational, I want to point out why many traders lose in trading.
It does not really matter what instrument you are trading, whether it is cryptos, forex, indices, commodities etc. I did a lot of research and wanted to provide you some bullet points why YOU still not made it so far in trading or at least not satisfied of what you have thought trading would give you back.
First of all, let me start with a simple question. Why do we even start with trading? Most traders started trading for one reason. To make MONEY! If you look today, how simply you can access the financial markets it becomes kind of scary. You can access educational stuff on the internet about trading strategies and you simply have to open a trading account and implement the strategy which you found on the internet and we all become rich right?
Well, unfortunately, that is not that easy and we all know that. At least advanced traders. When money comes into play as a tool to make money, there is a very important factor: Trading Psychology.
The overall goal which we want from the crypto market is very clear. Making money in a fast way. What does that mean now? Well if you make money today there is always a loser on the other side. That is how it naturally works!
We as traders, will also deal with losses, again and again and again. We need to understand first, that it is how it is. We can’t win every trade. We can’t even win 95% of all our traders. If you are good you will win maybe 60-65%. So the other 35-40% we will lose our money. And that is the problem for new traders in my opinion! An unsuccessful trader or new retail trader can NOT and also don’t want to deal with losses! They get very emotional and try to face the loss with overtrading, trying to recover the loss on the same day with higher position sizes or risking more than initially thought. That is emotional trading and those traders won’t last for long. Believe it or not, that is a fact.
By losing money you have earned so hard maybe with your 9-5 job, you obviously become emotional when you start losing it in trading. I do understand this point. But the markets especially the crypto market dont care about you becoming emotional. It will just wipe out your whole account when you get emotional. When you start making money and your account starts to rise you will get excited, by thinking you beat the market. However, a falling account will put you in scary position, where you think twice whether the strategy is working or not.
If this applies to you, you need to learn to control your emotions and concentrate on the main thing: “Capital prevention” Why? Because when you can keep your capital in trading you will automatically make money. You are a money manager at the end of the day. You don’t want to lose your money rather you want to keep it and cumulate it to growth. This will bring you into an advantageous position.
Your risk and emotional behavior changes depending on profits or losses. For example, if you win 4 or 6 trades in a row without booking one lose and you risk maybe 3% with a risk to reward of let say 2. You made over of 24%-36% in profit. At this stage an unsuccessful trader starts to think that he is the hero and starts putting more risk into the upcoming trades. Guess what. Eventually, he will lose all his profits he may gain earlier. Because losing is a part of the game. And I even didn’t mention the drawn loss. If you can win 4 or 6 trades in a row. You can also lose 10 trades in a row after you won 6 trades in a row. You become impatient and in the end, you will also lose your objectivity because you lost a lot of money. The key is always to win more than you initial lose.
That is the key to success in trading. If you always risk 2% on each trade with a constant risk to reward of 2:1 you will be profitable in the long run. (Obviously, with the right trading strategy, risk management and right traders mindset of course)
Tom Demark Sequential - T.D. Sequential Tom Demark Sequential - T.D. Sequential
For the sake of not overloading you, I will cover the basics of the T.D. setup and a more advanced understanding of the T.D. countdown at a later time. This is very basic level understanding of the Tom Demark Sequential, once I have the second portion finished in a few days I will do another to cover trading strategies with the T.D.
1. Introduction
2. Terminology
3. Example
4. Conclusion
1. Introduction
The Tom Demark sequential is a great tool used by many traders. However, it is a complex indicator to trade with that uses simple calculations. The T.D. is an exhaustion cycle indicator that identifies trend reversal using exhaustion points numbered 1-9 with 9 being the potential exhaustion point and reversal of a trend.
The Tom Demark Sequential consists of two components. T.D. Setup is the first one and it is a prerequisite for the T.D. Countdown – the second component.
T.D. Setup compares the current close with the corresponding close four bars earlier. There must be nine consecutive closes higher/lower than the close four bars earlier.
The Tom Demark Sequential can be found in TradingView by searching within indicators like so:
imgur.com
2. Terminology
Bearish Price Flip - occurs when the market records a Close greater than the Close four bars earlier, immediately followed by a Close less than the Close four bars earlier.
Bullish Price Flip - occurs when the market records a Close less than the Close four bars before, immediately followed by a Close greater than the close four bars earlier.
T.D. Buy Setup - bearish price flip, which indicates a switch from positive to negative momentum.
- After a bearish price flip, there must be nine consecutive closes, each one less than the corresponding close four bars earlier.
- Cancellation - If at any point, a bar closes higher than the close four bars earlier the setup is canceled and we are waiting for another price flip
- Setup perfection – the low of bars 8 or 9 should be lower than the low of bar 6 and bar 7 (if not satisfied, expect new low/retest of the low).
T.D. Sell Setup - prerequisite is a bullish price flip, which indicates a switch from negative to positive momentum.
- After a bullish price flip, there must be nine consecutive closes, each one higher than the corresponding close four bars earlier.
- Cancellation - If at any point a bar closes lower than the Close four bars earlier, the setup is canceled and we are waiting for another price flip
- Setup perfection – the high of bars 8 or 9 should be greater than the high of bar 6 and bar 7 (if not satisfied, expect new high/retest of the high).
3. Example
The chart above is Bitcoin on a 6 hour time frame with Heikin-Ashi candles (I will explain why in a later post). The T.D. is far more accurate on higher time frames. It can be used on lower time frames for entry and exits. However, I have found that precise entry and exit targets are best found with other indicators. I typically see the most accuracy with the T.D. on a 4 hour time frame or higher.
Noted on the chart is several Buy/Sell setups in addition to failed setups. The reason I am using such a poor example of the T.D. is I want to impress upon you the dangers of using only one indicator when making decisions. Not every indicator is 100% accurate. As good and intelligent practice, you should always use the T.D. with additional data.
BCHUSD 240 - A Lesson LearnedI believe that we learn more from our mistakes than our successes, so I wanted to share a mistake today. Though this may not be a trading idea as such, I thought this might be interesting to some readers on here. If it’s not, then at least it is a good way for me to describe the lesson I learned here, making it educational to myself. All in all, nothing lost there!
A few days ago, I noticed a bearish triangle on the BCHUSD 240 chart (see ). In a previous post, I had come to a price objective of $1130-$1070, so I took a short position within the triangle at the top line, around $1215. I had set a stop-loss above the triangle itself and was feeling pretty confident about it.
Time passed, and BCHUSD start making an aggressive move upwards, breaking the triangle upwards. However, volume didn’t seem to confirm this is a real breakout for me, so I stuck to my original conclusion. A little while later, I was stopped out as BCHUSD reached $1280 (where I had set my stop-loss).
Reflecting upon this, I feel there’s a valuable lesson I learned here: keep evaluating your scenarios.
When the triangle was broken upwards, I had expected a little throw-over before a move downwards to the area around $1100. At this point, I should have considered another possibility: that BCHUSD was going to make a WXYXZ-formation instead of sticking to the WXY-formation I had spotted in my original BCHUSD-post.
In previous analysis, I had seen that BCHUSD tends to correct around 50% in a retracement, which would have altered my perception of the situation unfolding to this:
Though the price objective for Z would have stayed the same for me, it would have gotten me thinking about the second X in that formation. My original stop-loss was based on the height of the triangle, not on a possible larger retracement. I should have considered this is a very likely possibility. This would have given me the following adjusted parameters for this trade:
Considering a 50% retracement on the previous XY-wave would have given me a new target for shorting BCHUSD at around $1300. A new stop-loss would, for me, be above a 78,6% retracement of that same wave if combined with increasing volume in the uptrend. These new numbers would have made me increase my short position along the ride up to $1300, with a price objective of $1100 and a stop-loss of $1425, giving a decent R:R-ratio on this particular trade.
Of course, after being stopped out and examining the chart, I did take a new short position at $1300 (as did many others, it would seem), and made up for my previous losses.
Nevertheless, for me today’s lesson is: keep evaluating and thinking in alternatives.
So, now what? Where is Z going? To be frank, I don’t know. I still consider the present price zone to be solid enough, though we even might break lower. However, I’d need more confirmation on that possibility before considering a new short position. For the time being, I’m happy to wait the next day or two out and see what happens. Who knows, we might even go into the area between $900-$850, which I considered a more drastic scenario a few days ago. I will not consider that a very likely scenario until we break the psychological $1000 barrier with volume confirmation.
Let's talk about cryptocurrency. What it is, where it's going.Hello all, dsap here, I go to this site everyday and read many articles and ideas published by crypto enthusiasts and traders. There are so many points of view and people tend to bicker back and forth about non points, especially in the comments section. I think technical analysis is a fun guessing game but nothing more. I do not wish to become a day trader and I do not think the rewards are worth the effort. I have made quite a bit of money in a short time doing very few trades and I plan to keep doing so. This has motivated me to start writing about what I have learned about cryptocurrency over the last few years and why following the larger ideas and movements in crypto can reduce your risk to the everyday volatility that plagues the day trading "gambler". Are there people who will win big and claim they knew what they were doing all along? Of course there are but that's not my focus and if you think you have found someone like that, by all means, keep following their advice. My analysis of the situation will not claim to be technical or tell you what indicators to look out for but rather give you insight into the inner workings of what you are buying and selling when you trade crypto. I think this understanding is way more relevant to making the decision to pull the trigger on a buy or sell than which way the price will swing tomorrow or next month. Once you understand what crypto currency is, where it is headed, and what it is not, the immediate price starts to matter less and less. The direction the technology is headed in and the forces behind the different projects affect my decisions way more than price fluctuations do.
With that introduction out of the way I would like to start my main topic: blockchain technology. You hear the buzzword blockchain thrown around a lot, but what does it really mean and why is it relevant to bitcoin or to your trading decisions? You will hear financial experts and bankers talk on the news about how they are unsure about bitcoin but they see blockchain as a very promising technology. From what I can tell they are trying to separate what makes bitcoin from bitcoin and squeeze out whatever value might be there. I'll let you in on a little secret, the exciting thing about bitcoin isn't blockchain technology. The experts are either lying through their teeth or ignorant of the truth in front of them, either way, the exciting thing about bitcoin is it's DECENTRALIZED IMPLEMENTATION OF A BLOCKCHAIN. I write that in all caps because it is very important and because most private companies experimenting with blockchains are in essence building intranets and claiming them to be as valuable as the internet itself. If you are unsure what I'm talking about, back when the internet was younger companies built their own internal networks thinking this TCP/IP infrastructure of networked computers would make them rich. It was only the companies who turned their model outwards to the internet who were successful. You don't hear people shouting today "what a wonderful world we have built on TPC/IP implementation and closed networks". You only hear about the internet. This is also true of cryptocurrency. The true innovation isn't the blockchain. The true innovation is the blockchain being used in a decentralized manner. So cryptocurrencies and projects that rely on and open and decentralized platform are the real deal while things like ripple have yet to become anything more than an internal company network. Can the internal company network be useful? Sure it can. Does it fit my idea of what a true cryptocurrency is just because it uses blockchain technology? Not really. Just like blu-ray disks intermittent technologies will have their short day in the sun and then be replaced by the better alternative once they become obsolete, and they already are by design. No one touts the advancements of fiber weaving technology and asks you to invest heavily in this idea. They buy shares of clothing companies.
PROFITABLE 4HR BITCOIN TRADING STRATEGY 2.0Profitable strategy for trading bitcoin on the 4hr char, I published an idea last week showing a strategy on the 12hr chart.
Top chart
4hr Time Frame
Weis wave volume by LazyBear (4)
Heikin Ashi candles
Bottom Chart
4hr Time Frame
Weis wave volume (Not necessary to use, just shows the comparison/ difference between Heikin Ashi bars and normal candles)
Candlestick
The idea is, that when the WWV indicator turns from red to green you buy, and green to red you sell. You need to read this from the top chart, due to the smoothing of the heikin Ashi candles it allows for smoother waves and essentially better signals. The bottom chart is the real price of bitcoin with the candles showing the high,low,close,open something heikin ashi doesnt do due to its nature. do not take signals from the WWV on the bottom chart!
Results
5th - 30th December, You'd have profited 12077.96 pips with a buy and hold strategy only producing a couple of thousand pips.
Green Box - Profitable buy
Red Box - Profitable sell
Yellow box - Losing trade
Downside to this strategy is you will need to be available to make trades every 4 hours which for obvious reasons may prove difficult.
Enjoy!