Educational
The Beginning..............Hello My Soon to be extremely wealthy friends!
I am going to be providing you a free educational course on technical analysis. Whilst your learning technical analysis to keep things exciting we are going to make money off our trades and I mean real money. I am going to teach you (free of charge) the ins and outs of everything you need to know to ensure you can make educated decisions in the marketplace resulting in high profits.
I have viewed many charts posted here and while some are great some we don’t want to touch and once you have followed me for a short period your eyes will open to the people that are traders and the people that are just comedians and social gurus. Don’t get me wrong I love a joke, love fun, love a drink, love spending money BUT love making it more. Together we are going to get used to making money and understanding how we earned it.
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LET’S BEGIN…………..
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We are starting with raw basics if you know this already read it anyway to make sure you understand it ALL . There are 2 types of analysis in financial markets this being fundamental analysis and Technical Analysis. We are only going to learn one as that’s all we need.
Technical Analysis we are going to refer to as TA and fundamental analysis as FA.
The 2 analysis are very different and I want to explain why we can forget learning about FA and only learn the TA . TA once learnt you can apply to ANY market from crypto, stocks, commodities, forex and YOU WILL BE successful in all of these market sectors.
FA is conducting research to specific industry types example if your trading stocks you may trade Tech companies so you must learn about all the tech companies on that exchange and which company you believe has the edge not only is this time consuming it limits your trading to Tech companies. For you to start trading let’s say Banks with FA you need to learn then entire market of banks and discover why they have the edge against one another and then decipher which stock will rise.
TA all we do is look at the chart and find the trend we can trade any market, any sector and industry. We can find everything we need to know to enable us to trade the crypto, stock, currency etc WITHIN 5 MINUTES of looking at the chart. There are 2 main charts types we are going to look at now and will always look at in the future.
This is a LINE CHART and a CANDLE DOJI CHART, now you will see above the chart in the heading is a line Chart. A Line Chart is the easiest chart to read and great for beginners or pro’s to figure out what trend we are in either an upward or a downward trend or there may be no trend. Candles Doji charts which is the default setting on most exchanges in crypto are great to see the live action these candles all explain to us as to what is happening next, below is an example of the Candle Doji chart. Timeframes of charts are important from Monthly, weekly, daily, 4 hour and hourly. We will always look at the Weekly, then the daily when we first check a crypto.
A line chart will link all the closing prices of the chart into a line marking this VERY EASY for you to see trends. The chart at the Top of this page shows LTC BTC in its uptrend we are in now; using the line chart.
The chart below shows LTC in its downtrend just recently using Candle Doji.
ICX/BTC - education for begginers with real-time exampleHello my friends !
This education lesson is more for beginners, as I am too.
Many new people have no clue about analysis, as begining. I did same mistake.
ICX , or ICON now reach strong support at 4h timeframe. Its decide-point, which direction will continue. I like to share my approch.
Usually, I just change chart to smaller timeframe ( here are2 hours candles ) for more detail look. Also bollinger bands is very easy use tool for better buy/sell. STOCH/ RSI at the bottom of chart indicate, if market is OVERBUY/OVERSELL. Lines needs to cross for change.
Every market has levels with strong buy/sell points. At this spots are situated big buy/sell orders. There are call support and resistance lines & we waiting for buy/sell oportunity near this levels. I want to notice, very often candle not reach this levels properly. Buy/sell orders people likely sets little lower or higher to be sure, order will be filed : )
At this chart, Im now draw resistence, only supports. Resistence repressent upper line in bollinger bands.
ICX is now in good example, and you can watch, how it works, without investing your real money.
Also, you need to study basic patterns like SUPPORT & RESISTANCE levels, Fibonacchi, how to use indicators , by your own. Sure, you need to train patience. Never make decision under emotions .
I will glad, if you leave comment or question below : )
*This is for education purposes only !
As all of my analysis.
TRADING THE INTRADAY TFs - 8 OPPORTUNITIES IN 1 DAY (MUST READ)I wish I could have posted this with the 5-minute timeframe because patterns appear clearer there, but to my realisation you actually cannot post something less than 15M, which does make sense, although Educational posts should be allowed to do that in my opinion.
Anyway the purpose of this post is to basically demonstrate that intraday, or day-trading timeframes are also worth trading, given they fit your trading personality as well as having practiced well enough in order to trade them, because they are a totally different world. For some people these timeframes are way too fast so they rightfully choose not to trade them and instead stick with the higher ones, like the D, W, M etc. What is really frustrating though, is the fact that people who choose not to trade these timeframes, completely dismiss them saying that noone should trade them, because they are completely unreliable and un-tradeable. Now, it is true that these timeframes are harder to trade, and given their fast-paced nature they may seem as unreliable to some people but that does not mean that one cannot or should not trade them. Let's not forget about the fractal nature of the markets, and particularly speaking for Elliott Waves, which happens to be the core of my analysis. As taken from the book "...To say, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is in Minute Wave 'v' of Minor Wave '1' of Intermediate Wave (3) of Primary Wave '5' of Cycle Wave 'I' of Supercycle Wave (V), of the Grand Supercycle, is to identify a specific point along the progression of market history.." (Prechter and Frost, 1978). This chart demonstrates what was quoted above. Even though we are looking at the 15M timeframe something else is occurring in the 5M timeframe, just like something else is occurring in the W timeframe. The point I'm trying to make is the fact that whether it is the 5M, or 15m or even 1M does not constitute them invalid, or wrong or unreliable.
Now looking at the chart we can see how valid patterns do form in the lower timeframes as well (again in the 5m it would have been much clearer but they can still be identified on the 15M) and had you been trading on that specific day you would have had 8 different opportunities to jump on a trade, even on a choppy sideways move like this one. Does it mean you should have taken all 8? No but my point is that opportunities do exist day in and day out, and day-trading is very plausible, given you have the right strategy and trading plan for yourself.
Even if we take a simple example from other markets, consider Stocks, and particularly Penny Stocks (that are listed on the NYSE, ARCA & NASDAQ). I will not generalise or give this as a fact but judging from what I've seen the trading timeframes with those assets are mainly the 5-minute and 1-minute, which does make sense, because I don't know why one would want to buy and hold a penny stock.
Concluding, I am not saying that one should just jump on the lower timeframes after reading this post and start trading them. It will take a lot of practice, and it's always wiser to master the higher timeframes, identify the patterns there and then scale down. But again trading these timeframes is very much possible.
P.S I want to give my many thanks to @David_Giraldo, who has opened my eyes and made me realise that these timeframes are indeed tradeable, as I had also dismissed them from what I was hearing other people say. Go have check out his profile as you will learn a lot from him too.
Bibliography: Prechter, R. and Frost, A. (1978). Elliott wave principle - A key to market behavior. 11th ed. Gainesville, Georgia USA: New Classics Library, p.28.
The Dilemma With Technical Analysis- USDJPY This is the dilemma with technical analysis, here we have a situation where we have technicals supporting a move upward and downwards. This situation is very common with technical analysis, in most cases there are technicals supporting both the bulls and the bears and hence making decisions solely based on technicals is 50/50 in most cases.
We have the 50 fib bounce and the trend line break suggesting a higher USDJPY while on the other hand we have a head and shoulder pattern and also a 50 fib bounce suggesting a lower USDJPY. So which way will the market move?
This is where knowledge of the fundamentals will prove beneficial, analyzing the fundamentals can help in deciphering which way the market will most likely go. Understanding what is driving the USDJPY and what the market is currently focused on combined with the technicals is one of the safest ways to trade.
Now for this trade if you are trading based on the technicals it would be best to wait for the USDJPY to break above or below the broken lines in the chart before looking to place a trade. If you understand how to read volumes then you can base your entry on signs of supply/demand.
BTCUSD: Keep It SimpleThree likely scenarios for bitcoin within the next few days.
Scenario 1: To turn bullish again, bitcoin needs to break the falling resistance around 9100. This will get bitcoin out of the falling channel.
Scenario 2: Bitcoin touches the resistance and crashes hard as the previous two lows. If bitcoin breaks the 6k resistance, the next stop is 4k and that would not be good for the community. More hope will be lost and the recovery will take much longer.
Scenario 3: Bitcoin falls to the 6k level and bounces again, forming a nice double bottom. This will show that bitcoin is still strong and in the game.
The Major Impact of High Risk TradingI feel this post is well overdue, and considering the current market standing in cryptocurrency it couldn't have come at a better time.
Today's post will be an eye opener for many, and others common knowledge. I hope you guys gain a lot of value from my insights and use this to your advantage in the markets.
The following educational post relates to the trader behind the charts, it is not specific to one financial market meaning it applies to all but today, I will be talking about this in relation to the cryptocurrency market.
The Major Impact of High Risk Trading
Right now, the cryptocurrency market has lost 50%+ of its overall value, meaning a lot of new and existing traders are suffering huge losses (to anyone who comments "you only lose when you sell" - we'll talk about this later in the post) and their portfolios are in the red.
I receive a lot of messages on a daily basis, recently they have been of the following context.
Follower: "I'm holding XRP (BTC, ETH, TRX, ETN, LTC, the coin doesn't matter, the message does) from $3 and it's now at $0.70, should I sell?"
I know most of these messages are out of panic, looking for an option, hopefully advice on how to regain those losses.
Do I tell people to buy or sell? Of course not, it's their investment, however I do provide my insights on where the market is heading next to help them understand their situation.
If you are this person, there is good news... You've already held through a serious correction, why are you thinking about selling now?
Take a look at the chart shown, as you can see I have illustrated "percentage loss" which is of course the amount you have lost on one given position or your entire portfolio.
We have "percentage difference from previous loss" now let's say for example you're holding XRP at a 33% loss and this quickly changes to a 50% loss, you can agree the difference is 17%.
And finally we have "percentage gain to break-even", this points out the required increase in capital to regain the losses that have occurred. If you invested $1,000 in XRP $2 and sold at $1, you can agree this is a 50% loss in capital and you now have a $500 portfolio. To regain those losses and return to break-even you would need to gain 100% which is 2x.
Let's start to break down the numbers.
If your portfolio is down 33% you will need to gain 50% to get back to break-even.
At this point, you are concerned but you're convinced the market will pick back up next week, so you don't take any action.
The following week your portfolio declines a further 17% which brings the overall loss to 50%, to get back to break-even you need to gain 100%.
This is when panic sets in, you've went from $10,000 to $5,000 in one month, the entire market is down and at this point you consider selling.
Now, you can see where this is heading.
The market declines a further 16% bringing your portfolio into a total decline of 66%.
At this stage you now need to increase your portfolio by 200% to get back to break-even.
What do you noticed when you get further and further down the list?
The percentage difference becomes smaller but the percentage gain to return to break-even increases drastically.
If you lose 83.3% of your portfolio, which I have witnessed, you will need to increase your portfolio by 500% which is 6x just to get back to break-even, a further 2.4% decline would require a 600% increase which is 7x.
Am I telling you to sell? No, not at all, there is an extremely valuable lesson here.
Let's say you are the person who has bought Ripple (XRP) at $3 and it's your only crypto, you're now holding at $0.70 which is a decline of 75%+ meaning you need to increase your portfolio by 300% to regain initial losses, which is 4x.
Buying high is a rookie mistake, many people can't think of anything worse but I definitely can.
Buying at the top followed by selling at the bottom.
I will need to continue this idea in the updates section, it's too long.
KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid - Repeating PatternsQuick video this evening to highlight how patterns typically repeat themselves not only within one part but many pairs. Whether in crypto, forex or even in stocks.
I like the acronym KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid. While my charts may look a mess, I try to keep them very simple and clean without any indicators other than price action, a few moving average and support and resistance levels. For me I find this works best for me in determining targets for entry and exits.
I hope you found the video informative and help, if so give me a like and reminder to follow to stay update with my post.
BITCOIN STRATEGY TO PROFIT EVEN WHEN THE BUBBLE BURSTS..........Very simple strategy to profit from the rising and falling of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Beat the buy and hold by around 4000 pips. Obviously on previous data this wouldn't be the case, but as the bubble grows and becomes more and more likely of a burst, this strategy provides more reassurance of success.
Indicator
WWV_LB - indicator written by lazybear
Introduction to Trend LinesOn the left side we can see the anatomy of an uptrend and downtrend line.
On the right side we can see a few examples, which should help build a mental image of how they look and work, in action.
Trend lines are the foundation of technical analysis.
Uptrend lines are formed by higher lows and signify a bullish trend. Pullbacks don’t specifically get smaller but impulse waves (movements up) are higher, showing an upward trend. They serve as “support” levels and tend to support the trends upward movement. When their support is tested, they can be considered dips, troughs or valleys.
The opposite is true in a downtrend. It is formed by lower highs and signifies a bearish trend. Downtrend lines serve as resistance as they “resist” the price from going up until they are broken.
Once the trends are broken, they can and usually do see a rally. On the break of an uptrend towards the downside, the price usually proceeds to fall.
On the break of a downtrend toward the upside, the price usually proceeds to rise.
This is because, for example, in a downtrend line, traders tend to lose confidence of a bullish trend until that downtrend is broken. They often exit their trades in the beginning of a downtrend and look for a re-entry on a trend reversal, or a break of the downtrend towards the upside.
How do you draw them?
Generally by connecting 2 tops (on a downtrend) or 2 bottoms (on an uptrend).
It is often said that 2 is all you need to draw a potential line but 3 or 4 is what it needs to become a valid line.
The more tops and bottoms that “connect”, the stronger the trend is.
3 is generally weak, 4 is a little stronger, and something like 5 or 6 are a pretty valid and strong trend.
The steeper it is, the less reliable, usually because that indicates higher volatility.
The stronger the trend is, the bigger the rally is when it breaks.
For example, a break of support of 2 points might not see much movement but a break of support of 6 points could see significant downward movement.
This is usually due to a few things, one being the psychology behind it.
As support gets tested more times on an uptrend, bears, or sellers, tend to lose confidence, so once it breaks after a lot of tests, a significant amount of them tend to come back in.
Thank you for reading, let me know if you like and enjoy these educational posts. Based on feedback, I may continue to post them and try to wrap up the basics of Technical analysis in 5-10 minutes a day, 1 by 1.
The future posts would cover:
Types of Charts
Candlestick Patterns
Support and Resistance
Volume
RSI
Bollinger Bands
Stochastic Indicator
ADX
MACD
SMA / EMA
Fibonacci Retracements
Pivot Points
Oscillators
Elliot Wave
Harmonic Patterns
Flipping your Trade BiasAs a currency trader, it is important to be able to flip your bias on a market as soon as possible provided you have objective technical evidence to support this flip. Too often, traders are influenced by a third party’s opinion about a long term trade bias that may be generated from fundamental analysis which is highly subjective. They tend to hold this bias for too long and end up taking counter trend trades resulting in losses or attempt to hold onto an open position and aiming for a huge profit target target which rarely eventuates.
We have found the technicals often paint a very clear picture regarding the stance on trade bias and you can often find your ‘Line in the Sand’ fairly quickly on a chart.
Attached is the Daily chart for AUDNZD. We have just flipped our bias from bullish to bearish after the recent bearish daily close. This means in our minds, we should only be looking for shorting opportunities since we believe the market is now in a bearish trend. It is important to stay in tune with a market’s bias so you know you are trading with the trend and not against it.
A trade bias is usually flipped when a major key line (horizontal and/or trendline) has a strong daily break and close.
A good example of low risk high reward- STOCH-MTF signal buy and was at bottom
- MACD at bottom
- Williams bottom
RSI bottom and movement up
Entry on this would have seen 120-200 satoshi in 1 day.
large room for upward movement based on previous cycle, since full retracement completed buyers came in.
Donations:
LTC: LQdNvC29EzF9LRkEpegQ7tab5svzaSdKCf
ETH: 0x7F5CF2EA6b1d4C4A26d0943f5c35e6d55805cD5e
BTC: 1HbAHkawHsP9shHY9Xb9htDqjSFogK5x4y
Divergence Trading PatternsDIVERGENCES are used to forecast an upcoming Price Reversal or Continuation.
There are 4 different types of Divergences and the first ones are Regular Bullish and Regular Bearish Divergences.
What are they?
Regular Divergences are when the price movement is contrary to the indicator movement. Signal for an upcoming Price Reversal, trend is about to change.
Then the second ones are Hidden Bullish and Hidden Bearish Divergences.
Hidden Divergences are signal of Trend Continuation. Meaning that the price continues to move in it's current direction.
If you have learned this method already this is a great reminder and works very well as cheat sheet. But if you are a learner then the chart is explaining very simple how you can spot them. You should take time and effort to learn this. It does not take long before you start spotting different kind of divergences.
You can use one of following oscillators to spot the divergences. (In the end it does not really matters which one you use).
MACD
RSI
CCI + BB
etc there are more but here are few you to get started.
Any questions or need help? Feel free to leave comments and feedback!
Yarr!
EURUSDAnother example of:
1) Drop- Base- Rally
2) Rally-Base-Drop
3) Rally-Base-Rally
4) Drop-Base-Drop
Supply and demand levels work the same in point and figure as they do in other styles of charts. Look for an area where trend reversed strongly. Your typical rally-base-drop or drop-base-rally would do just fine. You should look to buy or sell when you receive entry signals in those areas only.
There is no reason why you cannot take only the trades that offer the greatest potential for success and the lowest risk in relation to it.
BTC/USD - Why Most People Lose In Trading – The Traders MindsetHello Traders,
In this article, we want to talk about some educational stuff because we see so many people losing in trading.
How many months or even years are you in trading? 2 months? 6 months? Or even a year or more? Most of you out there who read this article might try to find out why they make the one-day profits and the other day lose it all again. We did a lot of research on this topic and wanted to provide you all the reasons why YOU still not made it so far in trading.
Let us start.
For this question, we want to bend a bow and try to start at the foundation why people start to trade. Most of you out there started with trading for a simple reason: to make tons of money. The prerequisites are low to none! You simply need to open a trading account watch a few YouTube Videos on trading and et voilà you are a trader, right? Well if that would be the case, we would all lay right now at the Bahamans with a Whiskey and relax life as a rich person but trading is so much more.
Unfortunately, when money comes into play as a tool to make even more money, then usually psychological factors and barriers come into play and glare us to make bad decisions. We want to share with you now some facts that might interest you and where you possibly see yourself as well.
Did you ever heard about the 90-90-90 rule? – Well, this rule is often concealed by Brokers when you open an account. But it is true! 90% of the traders lose 90% of their capital within 90 days! – It sounds crazy, right? Like 90% of all traders lose almost all their capital in this short time!
This cannot be true, right? – Unfortunately, it is. Now let us explain why. Well, the objective here in the financial market is clearly defined. – Achieving profits. So, every winner faces a loser on the other side! We need to understand that first in terms of understanding the profits and losses!
Basically, the truth is that we will have to deal with losses sooner or later again and again. And that is the problem for new traders! An unsuccessful trader can NOT deal with losses! They tend to exaggerate with their emotions once they face a loss.
Why is it like this? – Well, by losing money you have earned so hard, we become emotional. Simply, a rising account puts us in joy and euphoria. Whereas a falling account will put us in scare.
If this case applies to you, you need to learn and apply the ability to control your emotions and concentrate on the substance. This will bring us into an advantageous position.
We simply want to provide you an example, which you might be reflected with:
Our risk behavior changes depending on our profit series. For instance, you win 3 or even 4 trades in a row and booked, let’s say, 2 percent from each trade, you made an overall profit of 6-8%. Then our subconscious mind starts to think riskier because we suddenly think that things going well and seems to be quite simple. On the other hand, a series of losses will paralyze and confuse us. We try to get away from these circumstances as quickly as possible without thinking rationally. We become impatient and in the end, lose our objectivity! And this frame of mind could fast become a doom loop!
You rather need to think like a professional! That is:
Preparing for the market
Preparation for the trade
Have rules and strategies that work
Know that the market is ALWAYS right
Never gamble! We are NOT in a casino. This knowledge will give us a huge trading advantage!
Obviously, there is a lot more to talk about but this will give you a short introduction of the right traders mindest.
Hope that helps.
Cheers
BTC/USD - Why Traders Lose In Trading Part 2 -Hello Traders,
As you guys liked the previous educational part so much we decided to continue with that topic.
In picture 1, you can see the interdependence between fear and greed! These characteristics harm us to make good trading decisions and stay calm!
This fact is purely based on behaviour finance! This matter of fact is not only within the trader, it more lays in the market and we need to understand it. Only then we will understand the fact that emotions can control us in negative ways!
Therefore, it is so important to understand picture 2! Only then, we can act in any market situation calm and without any negative emotions! Whereas most of the people simply follow the path of the doom loop described in the graphic above, we need to think like first like a professional!
This knowledge will give us a huge advantage! We want to show you the market behaviour. With this knowledge, we then can implement it in our trading! The lack of risk and money management hinder the trader to ever be successful. The mistake you make is simple. You have the wrong mindset. Either you act greedy or fearful. This basically leads us to the next point: Your way of thinking is too short term!
You concentrate just on your current losses and wins without looking at the whole! You want profits NOW! Not later! This is one of the most emotional problems which you face!
You need to think long-term! Not looking at one trade! You need to judge your trading system over time and not after every single trade. However, most of the people do this! They question themselves if the trading strategy or approach they use is profitable! Of course, you need the right knowledge to build a profitable strategy. But to this later.
Basically, they end up falling in the doom loop again because they get too emotional with every single trade! More they hope on every loser to become a winner and cut every winner in the fear to become a loser!
The emotional behaviour is often caused by two factors:
• Wrong trading approach
• Short term thinking due to impatience
These two factors causing tremendous effects on your emotions!
Now let us explain why. When a trader starts, as you might refer this to yourself as well, we dream to become profitable day trader right! Why? – Because the profits you can make within ONE day are huge, right? This attracts us! We want fast and huge profits! However, after you started with day trading you fast recognize that it will cause more mischief within yourself than it brings the expected good things! Let us take a minute here and explain a fact, which most of you out there probably underestimate or not even think about. What is day trading? – Well, we will skip all the basic knowledge about day trading and concentrate right at the beginning on the interesting facts. The problem with day trading itself lays in the basics. You need to understand the mechanism of day trading. As you already know, you will always trade against someone else. Or in other words, if you are holding a buy EUR/USD position, someone else will hold the exact counter position. So, a sell EUR/USD.
This makes the whole story interesting because you will always have a competition! And as a trader you need to think smart who is your counterparty and what information they have. Only then you can measure if you have any chance or not in the long term! So, let us compare the different trading styles in picture 3.
We trade against computer based algorithms! This makes the story way different now! We need to understand that the execution time and the reaction is way faster than we can even imagine.
Additionally, emotions are also not present due to the use of computers. Now there is not only the emotions we have against us, but also the fact of the executions.
If you want to become successful, you first need to control your emotions and trade disciplined your trading system. However on a time horizon this thing makes the story very difficult.