History of Forex | From Ancient to the Modern Day
We have come a long way from the previously practiced barter system to the modern-day system of trading currency. Following is a brief summary of the evolution of currency and how it gave rise to Forex Trading.
Here are the main stages that are illustrated on the chart:
1️⃣The Ancient system of Trading - Trading with Gold
As early as 6th century BC, the first gold coins were produced, and they acted as a currency because they had critical characteristics like portability, durability, divisibility, uniformity, limited supply and acceptability.
2️⃣Bank Notes Originated - Deposited Gold in banks in exchange for banknotes
3️⃣Role of Geography - Various banks of different regions printed different currencies
Gold Standard - Currency pegged to gold
In the 1800s countries adopted the gold standard. The gold standard guaranteed that the government would redeem any amount of paper money for its value in gold. This worked fine until World War I where European countries had to suspend the gold standard to print more money to pay for the war.
4️⃣Bretton Woods System - Currency pegged to USD
The first major transformation of the foreign exchange market, the Bretton Woods System, occurred toward the end of World War II.
The Bretton Woods Accord was established to create a stable environment by which global economies could restore themselves. It attempted this by creating an adjustable pegged foreign exchange market. An adjustable pegged exchange rate is an exchange rate policy whereby a currency is fixed to another currency. In this case, foreign countries would 'fix' their exchange rate to the US Dollar.
5️⃣Birth of Floating Currency - Currency that is not pegged to any assets or other currencies is known as a 'floating currency'.
And what will be next?
Very hard to say but blockchain technologies will make the system change again.
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The RSI explained ! how to identify buy and sell signals Hello everyone , as we all know the market action discounts everything :) I have created this short video to explain what is the RSI and how to use it to identify buy and sell signals with this oscillator , everything you need to know about this indicator is right here.
Its been around since the late 70s so its probably one of the more established oscillators out there .
So lets check out the formula and how the RSI works :
RS=100 -100/1-RS
RS (relative strength) average X day up / average X day down
So simply lets say we are using a 10 days average so we check how many days the price closed up and we add them and we divide by 10 which would give us the average X days up.
And we do the same for the average X days down but we calculate how many days the price closed down and then we add them and divide by 10 ,And after all of that has been calculated we will always get a value between 0% and 100%
And that's why the RSI is considered a bounded oscillator it means that the value will always be between 0 % and 100%
The oscillator has 2 major zones which are the overbought and oversold zones. Anything above 70% is considered overbought and anything below 30% the market considered oversold .
So when the market reaches overbought zone it tells us that the market has gone up to far and its due a bounce back down , and the same when it reaches oversold zone it means that the market has gone to far down and its due a bounce back up.
So looking to buy or sell when the market reaches oversold and overbought is one strategy .
But because the market moves a lot and reaches these levels so much this way is not as reliable that much , the better way to use the RSI is to check if it has a divergence with the market price.
what is a divergence you may ask !!!
A Divergence is when the price of the market is moving in the opposite direction of a technical indicator, such as an oscillator, Divergence warns that the current price trend may be weakening, and in some cases may lead to the price changing direction.
These signals of divergences doesn’t happen that often but they do give us a better way to use the RSI .
And there is it that’s everything you need to know about the RSI and how it works it’s a really simple oscillator and its one of the most popular oscillators used by technical analysts.
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Option Greeks and Implied VolatilityThere are many reasons why an investor or trader trades options. The main reasons, as with other derivatives markets, is to hedge another position or to speculate on the performance of the underlying security.
1) Hedging: A hedge is like an insurance policy in that it can help mitigate risk for a small fee. For example, a portfolio manager buys a large position in Company A stock for its long-term price appreciation potential but is worried that the next earnings report will show short-term issues. He or she can buy put options on that stock that will increase in value if the price of the stock falls on its earnings news.
2) Speculation: Options allow both buyers and sellers to capitalize on their market forecasts, whether they are bullish, bearish, or neutral. However, because options prices depend on many factors, including market volatility, traders can profit from increases or decreases in those factors as well.
While traders can look at individual options data, a very widely used display called an “options chain” lists all options, or a subset, available for a given expiration month. Options traders also look at derivatives of the price that measure how fast their prices decay over time, how fast their prices change with a given change in the price of the underlying, and more. These derivatives are designates with Greek letters such as delta and gamma, so traders call them “the Greeks” .
I. Delta – measures how much an option price changes for a one-point move in the underlying. Its value ranges between 0 and 1 for calls and between -1 and 0 for puts.
II. Gamma – measures the rate of change in delta. It is essentially the second derivative of price.
III. Vega – measures the risk from changes in implied volatility. Higher vol makes options more expensive since there is a greater change than the underlying security price will move above the strike price for a call.
IV. Theta – measures the rate of time-value decay and is always a negative number as time moves in only one direction.
V. Rho – measures the impact of changes in interest rates on an option’s price.
Implied volatility (IV) is the estimated volatility of a security’s price and is critical in the pricing of options. Although not a guarantee, implied volatility tends to increase while the market in the underlying security is bearish. Conversely, when the underlying security is bullish, implied volatility tends to decrease. This is due to the common belief that bear markets are riskier than bull markets.
The most important is that implied volatility is an estimate of the future volatility, or fluctuations, of a security’s price. While levels of implied volatility are associated with bullish and bearish markets in the underlying security, it really does not predict market direction. It only forecasts the sizes of potential price swings. Implied volatility is not the same as historical volatility, also known as realized volatility or actual volatility. Historical volatility measures past market changes in the price of the underlying asset.
Trade with care.
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What are the candlesticks?Candlesticks are a way to express visually the size of the price movement.
There are different colors used for the candlesticks, but in pairs of 2: one color for an uptrend (usually marked in green) and one for a downtrend (usually marked in red).
Candlesticks are placed in graphics and by their movements create patterns. Starting from those patterns traders decide on a possible future pattern: where will/can the price go from now, based on the previous movements of the price.
On any chart, you can use more ways to see the price of an asset:
1. Candles - full candles (usually red or green)
2. Hollow candles - a full candle for a candle that show a downtrend (usually red) and an empty one for an uptrend (usually green and used only on the edges)
3. Bar
4. Line
5. Mountain
The main advantage of the candles is that they are more visual. In other words, you can see faster what is going on in your chart.
Why usually red or green?
The candles are said to show the emotions, so:
Red when something is not good
Green when something is loved/liked
Why do most people use the candles system?
The main advantage is that in any time frame you can see these prices:
1. Open price
2. Close price
3. High price
4. Low price
What are time frames?
There are many time frames: 1, 5, 10, 30 minutes / 1, 4 hours / 1 day / 1 week.
For any time frame chosen by the trader the pattern of the candles changes.
Depending on what you want to do (invest short, medium or long term) you look at different patterns/timeframes that the candles made.
The body of the candle represents the price range between a determined timeframe.
If the candle is red - the price is lower than 5 minutes ago (where 5 minutes is the selected timeframe)
If the candle is green - the price is higher than 5 minutes ago (where 5 minutes is the selected timeframe)
Sometimes the candle looks like a cross (the body for the candle is missing). That means that the opening and close prices are the same.
Any candle has 2 wicks or “shadows”:
1. Up - representing the maximum price
2. Down - representing the minimum price
There are bigger and smaller candles. Why?
The bigger the candle the bigger the price movement.
The smaller the candle the smaller the price movement.
If the up wicks are smaller it shows that the price closed near the maximum price of that timeframe. The same is valid for a down wick.
If the down wicks are bigger it shows that the price closed far from the minimum price of that time frame. The same is valid for an upper wick.
The 8 Universal Rules of Successful TradingUTPs (Universal Trading Principles) are a set of trading rules you must not break. They cover entries, exits, strategies, and risk management. They form the backbone of your trading plan. Repeat these rules everyday, like a mantra, until you can recite them in your sleep. This will make you a successful trader.
1. Don't leave money on the table - I move my SLs to breakeven and lock in profits as the trade goes in my direction. The first rule of trading is to protect my trading capital. Without my capital, I am out of the game and cannot be a trader. So I do everything possible to protect it.
2. I scale in and out of trades - If my trade idea seems to work, I add to my position. If my trade doesn't work and approaches my SL, I am reducing my position. I am ALWAYS adding to working trades and NEVER to losing trades. This is how the most successful traders trade, and this is how I want to trade.
3. Final TPs - My final TP is based on horizontal S/R levels, weekly or monthly highs and lows. I confirm that markets are mostly ranging, i.e. my final TPs are always based on the normal distribution (e.g. weekly or monthly ATR). My TPs need to be REALISTIC.
4. Technicals are used only for entries and exits. The direction of the market is determined by fundamentals. I never trade against the fundamentals.
5. Position sizing - My stop-losses are always based on sound technical levels. My position size depends on the size of the stop-loss and the percentage of my trading account I want to risk on any single trade. I never risk more than 2% on a trade, and cut the risk-per-trade to 1% after a series of three losing trades.
6. Trading is a probability game - I acknowledge that successful trading is about probabilities. I don't know whether my next trade will be a winner, but I do know that I have a good chance to be in profit after the next 10 trades.
7. Trading is as simple as you make it - Fundamentals support my trades, but everything can happen (including a change of fundamentals and sentiment). Risk management prevents higher losses. There are always new opportunities. My goal isn't to be right, but to follow my UTPs.
8. Weekly journal reviews - I don't measure trading success by the profits I've made or the number of winning trades. My success is measured by how strictly I followed my UTPs. To review my trading, I am performing weekly journal reviews and try to identify any trading patterns that have a negative influence on my bottom line.
How To Trade Breakouts !!Hello everyone , as we all know the market action discounts everything :) I have created this short video to explain How To Trade Breakouts , everything you need to know about this strategy is here.
First we got to understand what is a breakout but before u start using this strategy take your time and understand the information well .
so what is a breakout : a breakout occurs when the price breaks out and closes above a resistance level or below a support level
A support line can be identified by connecting the points of low and the price bouncing back up , the support line needs 2 point to be formed but I think 3 gives a stronger signal and its safer.
the resistance line is the same as the support line but it connects the highs instead of the lows and they act as the ceiling on which the market bounce down after hitting it.
Both the Support & Resistance lines can be horizontal or angled .
so when we combine the support and resistance together we get a trading range which keeps the market price in a certain range until the price makes a break either above or below.
trading ranges are formed form the supply and demand and the market phycology so when the price breaks out of the range it signals a change in the supply and demand and the beginning of an upward or a downward trend
so lets talk about the concept of a breakout
For a breakout to happened you one need a support or a resistance line u don’t need both , but having both will create a trading range which will help you take advantage for breakouts in both directions up or down .
There are several ways to trade breakouts :
1.At the actual breakout (this could be very risky in case it was a Fake breakout)
2.Using a pending order at a higher price then the market range
3.Waiting for the conformation on the breakout.
Now lets talk about fake breakouts , it happens when the price breaks past the support or resistance level and moves back into the trading range as you see here :
waiting for a confirmation is really important as u minimize the risk you are talking , this way u will lose some of the momentum of the trend but u will insure that’s the trend is going the way you want it to go.
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Basic Options TerminologyOptions or options contracts are agreements to give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a specific amount of the underlying security at a specified price at or until a defined time in the future.
Options are derivative instruments because their value depends on the value of the underlying asset. Further, options are “decaying” assets because, all other things being equal, their value will decline over time until they expire. All assets depend on some definition of value , which is then modified by demand-supply forces established by the market players. However, options depend on many other variables, the most notable being the strike price and the time left until it expires.
In the following paragraphs, we will explain some basic options terminology.
1. Call options: A call gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy a defined amount of the underlying security at a certain price at or by a certain date.
2. Put options: A put gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell a defined amount of the underlying security at a certain price at or by a certain date.
3. Strike price: This is the price at which the holder of the option may buy or sell the underlying security. For example, a call option with a strike of 100 gives the right to the holder to buy the underlying stock at that price no matter what the price of the stock may be at that time.
4. Expiration: The date at which the holder no longer has any rights and the option no longer has value.
5. Premium: The price paid for the option
6. Open interest: The number of options contracts outstanding per strike/expiration combination.
7. Exercise: Using the rights acquired under the option to buy or sell the underlying security.
8. In-the-money: A call option with a strike price below the price of the underlying; a put option with a strike price above the price of the underlying.
9. Out-of-the-money: A call option with a strike price above the price of the underlying; a put option with a strike price below of the underlying.
10. At-the-money: An option with a strike price at or very close to the price of the underlying security.
11. Implied volatility: The calculated expectation of future volatility
12. American style: Options that may be exercised at any time up to and including their expiration date.
13. European style: Options that may be exercised only at expiration.
Option prices contain both an intrinsic value and a time value . The intrinsic value is the value the option would have if it were to expire now. The more in-the-money the option is, the higher the intrinsic value. Out-of-the-money options don’t have any intrinsic value.
Time value is the speculative component. The longer the option has until it expires, the greater the chance that it will move into profitability. This is why a call option with a strike price of 100 has some value even if the underlying security is trading at 50. If there is time left before expiration, there is still a chance the security could rally enough to make the option profitable.
Trade with care.
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Success Rate of Popular PatternsRemember Do not trade solely on Patterns only. Ultimately, traders should seek out the best combination of patterns and price action to create an analysis strategy that works for them. Experiment with different approaches and combinations until you discover a method that suits your trading strategy and goals.
Here are the success rates for these patterns:
Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern (83.44%)
Head and Shoulders Pattern (83.04%)
Bearish Rectangle Pattern (79.51%)
Bullish Rectangle Pattern (78.23%)
Triple Bottom Pattern (79.33%)
Triple Top Pattern (77.59%)
Double Bottom Pattern (78.55%)
Double Top Pattern (75.01%)
Ascending Channel Pattern (73.03%)
Descending Triangle Pattern (72.93%)
Ascending Triangle Pattern (72.77%)
Bull Flag Pattern (67.13% Success)
Bear Flag Pattern (67.72% Success)
Bullish Pennant Pattern (54.87%)
Bearish Pennant Pattern (55.19%)
These success rates presented are the result of a study conducted by a group of professional traders. They studied 10 different patterns independently from one another in 5 different markets (Forex, Futures , Equities, Crypto and Bonds), for a time period of 22 months with more than 50 case studies for each and every single pattern.
The 6 Principles Of The Dow Jones Theory !!!Hello everyone , as we all know the market action discounts everything :) I've prepared a video explaining the 6 principles of the Dow Jones theory , everything you need to know about the Dow Jones theory is in this video or if you prefer to read i got you :)
The Dow Theory is a trading concept conceived by Charles H. Dow, an American journalist and founder of the ‘Dow Jones & Company’ financial firm. The ‘Jones’ part refers to the statistician and co-founder of the company who also took part in the development of Charles Dow’s concepts. Initially, it consisted of 255 editorials. Dow himself didn’t actually create and name the theory. After Dow’s death, Rea, Schaefer, and Hamilton gathered the editorials, formed the theory and named it after Dow.
Even though it’s more than 100 years old, this is the theory that technical analysts use and swear by today.
The 6 Principles Of The Dow Jones Theory :
1_ The market action discounts everything
2_The market has 3 types of Trends :
The Primary Trend: It can be as long as years and is the ‘main movement’ of the market.
The Secondary Trend: lasting between 3 weeks to several months, retraces the last primary move some 33-66% and is difficult to decipher.
The Minor Trend: is least reliable, lasting from several days to few hours, constitutes of noise in market and may be subject to manipulation.
3_The market trend has 3 phases :
The beginning of a primary upward (or downward) trend in a bull (or bear) market is known as the accumulation phase. Here, Smart traders enter the market to buy (or sell) stocks against common market opinions.
The participation phase, more investors enter the market as business conditions improve and positive sentiments become evident. This results in higher (or lower) prices in the market.
The distribution phase is marked by excessive buying by inexperienced investors. This could result in great speculation. At this stage, it is ideal for investors to book profits and exit.
4_The averages must confirm each other :
Dow, is referring to the DJIA and the Transport Index , meant that no important bull or bear market signal could take place unless both averages gave the same signal, thus confirming each other. He felt that both averages must exceed a previous secondary peak to confirm the inception or continuation of a bull market. He did not believe that the signals had to occur simultaneously, but recognized that a shorter length of time between the two signals provided stronger confirmation. When the two averages diverged from one another, Dow assumed that the prior trend was still maintained
5_Volume most confirm the trend :
According to Dow theory, the main signals for buying and selling are based on the price movements of the indexes. Volume is also used as a secondary indicator to help confirm what the price movement is suggesting
From this tenet it follows that volume should increase when the price moves in the direction of the trend and decrease when the price moves in the opposite direction of the trend.
The reason for this is that the uptrend shows strength when volume increases because traders are more willing to buy an asset in the belief that the upward momentum will continue. Low volume during the corrective periods signals that most traders are not willing to close their positions because they believe the momentum of the primary trend will continue.
6_A trend will continue until on apposite force is applied :
An uptrend is defined by a series of higher-highs and higher-lows. In order for an uptrend to reverse, prices must have at least one lower high and one lower low (the reverse is true of a downtrend).
However, the longer a trend continues, the odds of the trend remaining intact become progressively smaller.
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Why To Avoid High Dividend Stocks In this video I explain why high dividend yield stocks are not the best.
Companies that are giving out high dividend yields are usually struggling and in need of investors.
Many people are attracted to high dividend yields thinking it will generate them "passive income", little did they know that their stock investment is losing value at the same time.
Trade based on fundamentals, not based on dividends.
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Stop focusing on the uncontrollable 🙌We have all been guilty of this at some point as traders.
The only thing that matters to us is the returns or the potential returns 🤑
Our only focus is those returns which we have no control over 🤦♂️
When returns become the only focus we fail to focus on other elements we do control that will get those much wanted gains.
Once upon a time I focused on a target each day then each week and month as my only focus.
Sometimes the targets were met but most the time wildly missed and I spent all my time chasing money back.
Once I started focusing my efforts on the four elements posted in this idea I can control the returns started to come naturally.
Every trade idea I post does have the trade history attached for transparency which includes returns.
However these returns come via focusing my risk, costs, time and emotions all correctly.
Risk is controlled to sensible levels capital.
Time is managed correctly as automation and building proven strategies has freed me up from excessive chart time.
Costs are controlled as I'm not re-depositing to my account all the time.
Above all else my emotions are in check due to working to proven plans along with a systematic/rules based approach negating the need for stressful decision making.
Getting those four control elements dialled in to my trading helped the all important returns to flourish.
Focus on the elements you can control and not the ones you can't and trading will get a lot more simpler.
Thanks for taking the time to read my post 👍
Darren.
🎓 EDU 7 of 20: Use the Power of Intermarket Analysis 🔀Intermarket analysis is an often neglected and overlooked type of analysis among traders. However, it's a powerful tool that can help you anticipate future price movements by following the performance of other, closely-related markets.
Intermarket analysis refers to the analysis of other asset classes that can provide valuable and actionable insights into related markets, such as forex.
In this part of our Intermarket analysis lesson, we'll be focusing on a specific asset class that has a very close connection with currencies: the sovereign bond market and yields.
As you already know from my previous educational posts, currencies tend to follow interest rates. With the fall of the Bretton Woods agreement, currencies became freely-floating and capital started to move to places with the highest yields, which meant higher returns for investors.
For example, if Australia has a 3% interest rate and Japan a 1% interest rate, investors could buy AUD to collect a 3% rate and short JPY by paying a 1% rate, leaving them with a net profit of 2%. This is how carry trade work, and the long AUD/JPY was one of the most popular carry trades given the large yield differential between Australia and Japan.
That's why you need to follow yield differentials in your trading. The chart above shows the EUR/USD pair, and the 2-year yield differentials between 2-year German bonds and 2-year US bonds. Notice that we're using German bonds (also known as "bunds"), since Germany is the largest European economy.
To add yield differentials to your chart, simply hit the "+" (compare) above your chart and type in "DE02Y - US02Y" with a space between the symbols. This also works for other currencies. Here is a list of symbols for the major currencies and their respective bond yields: US02Y, CA02Y, GB02Y, DE02Y, JP02Y, AU02Y, and NZ02Y. The currency should be self-explanatory from the symbols (note, we also the German 2-year yield when analyzing CHF.)
Notice how the exchange rate closely followed the differentials in yields. When German yields rose compared to US yields, capital inflows to the euro area increased demand for EUR, which lifted the exchange rate.
Similarly, when US yields rose compared to German yields, capital inflows to the US increased demand for USD, and the EUR/USD pair fell (meaning a stronger USD.)
The dots you see on the chart are the individual bond yields (DE02Y and US02Y), because I like to have a picture of why the yield differential line is rising or falling (i.e., did the line fall because US yields are higher, or because German yields are lower?)
We are using the 2-year yields, because they tend to closely follow the monetary policy stance of the respective central bank. In other words, when the ECB turns hawkish, the DE02Y tends to rise (signaling higher interest rate expectations), which in turn would push the yield differential line higher (and most likely the EUR/USD pair as well.)
In the next part of Intermarket Analysis, we'll take a look at how other markets can impact currencies, like metals, commodities, and energy.
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Everything about the Stochastic oscillator !!!!Hello everyone , as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
A lot of people asked me about the Stochastic oscillator so i prepared this video for you guys explaining it please enjoy .
or if you prefer to reading :
First thing you need to know is that the stochastic oscillator is a momentum index just like the RSI it looks at the price momentum.
A DR.George Lane developed it in the 1950s.
So let us talk about the stochastic oscillator now
it has 2 lines %K (blue color) and %D (Red color)
this is how we use it :
1_ the Stochastic oscillator indicates overbought and oversold state of the market cuz the stochastic is a bounded indicator that means its bounded between 0 and 100 range ( above 80 overbought , bellow 20 oversold )
2_we use it to identify buy and sell signals using crossovers:
• If %K crosses below %D then it’s a sell signal
• If %k crosses above %D then it’s a buy signal
3_Divergance between the price and the Oscillator
We have 2 types of the Stochastic Oscillator:
Fast and slow
The difference between the Fast and Slow stochastic is:
1. The Fast stochastic is more sensitive than the Slow stochastic ( the most common problem for oscillators is the number of false signals that they give so the Slow stochastic tries to solve that problem )
2. Slow stochastic smooths out the %K line by averaging over (d) period
so let me make it simple the %K line in the Slow Stochastic is like the %D in the fast stochastic
Now let us talk about the Formula
%K=100. (C-Ln/Hn-Ln)
Where C is the current closing price
Ln is low in (n) period
Hn is high in (n) period
(n) Is the number of period and the default value for (n) is 15
Now the %D is calculated like this
%D=average %K/ (d) period
(d) Is the number for period and the default value for (d) is 3
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The Moving Average Explained !!! Hello everyone , as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
A lot of people asked me about the MA and how to use it so i prepared this video for you guys explaining it please enjoy .
or if you prefer to read :
what is a moving average : its a simple technical analysis tool that smooths out price data by creating a constantly updated average price..
we use it to to create sell and buy signal (if the price is above the MA then it’s a buy signal , if the price is below the MA then it’s a sell signal )
Now lets talk about the different types of moving averages :
1_ the simple moving average (SMA)
2_ Exponential moving average (EMA)
Notice that the simple MA line is slow which means if the trend moves quickly its gonna take time for the simple MA to move and this is a problem called LAG , but the Exponential MA (EMA) tries to solve this
The EMA is the same as the SMA except it gives more weightage to recent price action
What does this means , it means when the trend changes quickly so does the EMA , the response time on the EMA is much faster then the SMA
So what if we combined them both to try to understand where sell and buy signals are . That’s called a crossover
3_weighted moving average (WMA) it simply combines the features of the SMA and the EMA
Its basically like a hybrid car it uses electric engine and a diesel engine so it has both of the two worlds ,, how ever the WMA is not as poplar as much as the SMA and the EMA
And that’s it now u guys have a better idea on what is a moving average is and its different types
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[Trade Review]How I traded $SQ, $HD HUGE FUMBLE, $TLRY, $MSFT, $In this video I will reviewing trades I took on June 29, 2021 which were $SQ, $HD, $TLRY, $MSFT, $baba Along with an explanation of my plan as well showed you guys my TA for some possible set ups! Traded these tickers using my knowledge of technical Analysis , sharing my levels: Support & Resistance , my trendlines , Fibs, Waves, Price Action, Channels , Emma's, and prior experienced , while providing both bullish & bearish scenarios for you to be able to understand my analysis and wait for confirmation as always!
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Price Action patterns that i like to tradeHello guys hope u are all having good week. I will start with this series and i will name it patterns that i like to trade. If u like it drop a like and comment and maybe i will start doing full video breakdowns in the near future. Wish u to catch many many pips this week.
[Trade Review]How I traded $DIS 200% GAINS, $TLRY, $MSFT, FUMBLEIn this video I will reviewing trades I took on June 28, 2021 which were $TLRY, $DIS, $MSFT, $ZM from watchlist I provide from the stream on Saturday! Along with an explanation of my plan as well showed you guys my TA for some possible set ups! Traded these tickers using my knowledge of technical Analysis , sharing my levels: Support & Resistance , my trendlines , Fibs, Waves, Price Action, Channels , Emma's, and prior experienced , while providing both bullish & bearish scenarios for you to be able to understand my analysis and wait for confirmation as always!
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HOW TO buy shitcoins?Hey guys,
Many people asked me how they can get some altcoins they had in mind (AKA "shitcoins"), so I thought why not publish an idea?
I'll make this short.
There are three main ways to buy these coins:
1. Trust Wallet (PancakeSwap & UniSwap)
2. Enterprise websites
3. Any cryptocurrency exchange provider
Trust Wallet
First, you have to make a Trust Wallet. You can use crypto.com or any other platform you like, but make sure it supports BNB.
Then buy some BNB and then transfer it to your Trust Wallet address.
After your transfer is processed, open your BNB page on your Trust Wallet and then swap it to the Smart Chain (Because you will be using Smart Chain to make your purchases).
Now that you have everything done, you should "connect" your Trust Wallet to either UniSwap or PancakeSwap if you're using an app, or go browse through your Trust Wallet to the PancakeSwap or UniSwap websites to get your desired coins.
That's it. This method is used a lot because most "shitcoins" are not available to buy when they first come out. But you can readily get them on your Trust Wallets.
Enterprise websites
This method is hardly used because it's only relevant when you can't find your shitcoins on trust wallets. After all, they are exclusively launched only and only on their websites. So you only have to connect your Trust Wallet to their website or any other payment method they require.
Any cryptocurrency exchange provider
If your desired coin has been on the market for a while, there's a possibility that you can get it on any ordinary exchange website like you buy Bitcoin or any other coins. So there's not much to explain here as it's pretty obvious how you can make the purchase.
Now let's talk...
Have you used any of these methods? What are your experiences?
Any tricks you got in mind so that we can strategize buying shitcoins based on it?
Comment below!
Continuation Chart Patterns - Falling WedgeHello guys, this is an additional Tutorial idea following the previous one.
You can also use this trick to read your chart if you want to make sure if it's bullish or not. It's called a Falling Wedge.
What is a Falling Wedge?
When this pattern is found in an uptrend, it is considered a bullish pattern, as the market range becomes narrower into the correction, indicating that the downward trend is losing strength and the resumption of the uptrend is in the making.
"The falling wedge pattern is characterized by a chart pattern which forms when the market makes lower lows and lower highs with a contracting range. When this pattern is found in a downward trend, it is considered a reversal pattern, as the contraction of the range indicates the downtrend is losing steam. When this pattern is found in an uptrend, it is considered a bullish pattern, as the market range becomes narrower into the correction, indicating that the downward trend is losing strength and the resumption of the uptrend is in the making."
Now let's talk...
Have you used this patterns? What are your experiences?
Any tricks you got in mind so that we can improve reading charts based on it?
Comment below!
A lesson in Revenge Trading"Cut your losses short, but let your winners ride!"
We have heard that quote, one and a million times, it's one of the first things you hear when you start trading, a quote almost as known as
"Buy low, sell high"
And why is it so important and so widespread?.
The reason is pretty simple: You need to make more on your winning trades, to compensate all your losses and still make a profit.
Sounds pretty simple right?
Your win ratio and Risk to Reward are your most important stats,
Well it's easier said than done, and today I learned something about that coupled with revenge trading.
But what is revenge trading?
It's as simple as looking to make quick profits in a quick and aggressive way, after suffering losses, revenge trading also involves forgetting your own trading rules and risk management.
Anyone experienced trader can tell you the same, revenge trading is one of the worst things you can do and one of the fastest ways to losing your ENTIRE ACCOUNT
You can wipe out, months and even years, of savings and trading profits in a manner of hours or even minutes.
So when you take a loss, you should step away for a while, review what you are doing and get back in the game with a clear head.
In this case, I didn't take losses, I actually did make some profits
BUT I was angry that I didn't make all the profits from the top to the actual bottom.
So I revenge traded, even though I was up quite well in the day.
Instead of even following my own earlier analysis (linked below) I decided that the best way to make quick profits, was by trying to time the absolute bottom and get a high leverage long in there.
Not only I was increasing the leverage I was also increasing the risk, by trading against the trend and trying to time the exact moment the market reversed.
I didn't manage as you can see in the chart.
The lesson is pretty simple: Don't ever revenge trade and don't let good trades that weren't perfect enough make you become irrational.
I could have pretty good profits today, but I let myself become my own worst enemy.
ALWAYS PRACTICE RISK MANAGEMENT, RISK MANAGEMENT IS VITAL TO TRADING
BTC - Harmonic Patterns pt.1 'THREE DRIVES PATTERN' (beginners)You may be wondering why you keep losing money in the markets. Well, we've all been there - more often than we wished for. But we asked for it every single time. So, why is that?
After years of repeatedly or constantly losing money, I know very well what I've been doing wrong for so long. I came to the conclusion that I - and most people I observed or know in person - keep losing money because of several factors, one of which I will elaborate in this sheet:
The absence of a system
Many people, who are new to the world of trading and investing, especially those who have suffered (severe) losses in the past, are drifting around, clueless, and are seeking for a helping hand that is supposed to guide them around in the world of making and losing money. That state of helplessness and the general accessability of the internet and social media is the perfect playground for fraud. Since there has been a wave of fake (marketing) gurus all over the internet for quite a while, that many fell victim to, the term 'system' is now broadly misunderstood and causes fear among those who were scammed by 'THE MAGIC AND ALWAYS WORKING SYSTEM'. Usually 'gurus' on the internet charge money for providing a system or pretending to educate people about how to 'REALLY' make money. So what is a system?
Before finally adopting or developing a system, one must know what a system is defined by, and what criteria a system has to meet. So what does a system do?
A system is supposed to allow one to evaluate more or less reliable entry points/levels. But what does that mean? It means that you don't want to participate in EVERY major move the markets offer you to be part of. In fact a system will focuse on a very specific kind of moves, and you are only supposed to trade/invest according to the potential entry that the system you use provided. You will most likely miss out on many moves, and you will think about the amounts of money you could have made if you had just been part of that one major move that you can't stop thinking about. That thought-process is self destructive though, and will lead to suffering even more losses because most people force themselves to not miss out on the next move, in order to finally be part of the wave that makes the real money. But what defines a proper system? How do you know it works? Well, there is only one way to find out.
One who sticks to a system - or several - would only want to take the entries the system provides for them, regardless of what happens outside of their system's frame. And yes, that means missing out on many, many, and many more major moves. However, atually making money by applying a system leads to 'strategy building', which focuses on, or consists of 'money management' and 'risk management'. That is a whole other topic though, which I am looking forward to explaining in further educational posts, but not in this one.
A system is supposed to allow you to evaluate ONE specific entry, according to specific conditions that have to be met. In order to allow you to pick up on what I'm trying to say I have prepared a very simple example of a system (also referred to as 'technique'). Since many people wanted to be part of the crypto-spikes that we have recently seen, and bought coins at all time highs, I decided to demonstrate several harmonic techniques on the BTC chart.
First of all: Where are we? Where is the example taking place?
For having a better idea about the scale and location I added this snapshot of the BTC chart in the daily timeframe:
(ALL FOLLOWING SNAPSHOTS WERE TAKEN IN 13H TMF)
A system, or technique, may be very simple. The strategy your system will be part of will be more complex. But the system itself may surprisingly be very simplistic. For instance: I have been trading with the use of 'harmonics' for a very long time. I focused on TWO different types of harmonic patterns.
1) AB=CD patterns (ABCD)
2) Three Drives patterns
In this case, you could make use of the examples I will provide in a second in two different ways, since they'd have given away a short signal on BTC at the ATH.
1) actually shorting BTC, which isn't a very popular method, since not many brokers offer the ability to short sell crypto currencies, and if they do, it often is very expensive to execute. However, some still do it, and this would've been a perfect entry for a short order.
2) interpreting it as a warning signal to either a) getting out of BTC or to b) not buying more coins.
I'll introduce the 'Three Drives pattern' in this post, because it was a very clean, textbook-like pattern in this specific case:
So, this is the pattern I have spotted that the BTC ATH (all time high) consists of/portrays. As I have mentioned several times already, a system shall provide an entry. So, only if the requirements are met, you are allowed to make a trade. Since some of you may be unaware of what a three drives pattern is, and how to trade it, i will break it down for you:
A three drives pattern is a series of lower lows or higher highs which occur in a very specific relation to each other and usually indicate the market may turn around after completing the pattern. It focuses on analysing the time/price relation between said highs or lows. In detail:
It consists of three drives, as the name gives away, which may be a series of three consecutive higher highs, or lower lows:
bearish:
bullish:
each drive is interconnected with a corrective move, the corrective moves will play a very decisive role in determining the entry.
bearish:
bullish:
The numbers (1.27) that the three drives pattern, that Tradingview offers, already includes, measure the price excess of the correction move in relation to the next high.
In order for the trade to be executed the price excess must either be 1.27 or 1.618 (1.62 approx.).
If you're uncomfortable with the three drives drawing tool you could simply measure it by yourself using a fibonacci retracement featuring the 1.27 and 1.618 extensions and apply it on the corrective moves of the three drives pattern, just like this:
The following drive should then bounce off the 1.27 or 1.618 extension. You must apply the Fib rectracement on the second correction wave too.
The end of the 3rd drive, which should bounce off the 1.27 or 1.618 extension too would then initiate the trade. You would SIMPLY (according to this system) make a trade.
All that you have to do is to find a system that has proven to work out to a certain degree in the past (always do never ending backtesting), implement it in your strategy (risk-, and money management) and strictly take the entries that your system provides for you. A system is supposed to give you the confidence you need to blindly execute it according to its rules and requirements. The only way to gain said confidence is to a significant amount of backtesting
over and over again, and literally studying the system. A trade that you are afraid of to take, for whatever reason, can still be interpreted as a strong signal to close your current positions, as in the case of this BTC example. Not many people would dare to simply short BTC on the ATH, but relatively many people would probably start takeing profits or selling their coins if they spotted a short entry - according to whatever system(s) they may use. There is not THE perfect system out there. Find a system you can apply confidently and implement it in your strategy.
Now, the remaining question is where to take profits once you're in. The Three Drives pattern offers several take profit levels. There may be other ways to successfully take profits, but this is the way that has proven to be the most profitable one for me:
I usually simply attach a FIB retracement to the end of the first correction move and to the end of the 3rd drive , and I take partial profits at each of these marked levels. (0.382; 0.5; 0.618; 1.0; 1.27; 1.618).
Back to the REAL example:
the entry:
the take profits:
While there are many ways to apply or trade the Three Drives pattern, and some focuse on the retracements in specific, while I focuse on the extensions of the correction moves only. I don't pay much attention to the retracement level of the correction moves because there simply isn't a reliable retracement level. Some fall back to 0.382 while others retrace as far as 0.618 or 0.786.
The issue with trading and investing is, that one's ANALYSIS is one thing, but actually initiating a trade, spotting the chance of making money in time and not hesitating to take action is a whole other thing. The only way to act with confidence when the time has come and to actually making the trade is to apply a system that has PROVEN to work. If you don't have a system you won't have the guts to take the chance for a good trade because you burned your hands in the past. Focuse on the entry. Not on where prices may go in the future. If you got your entry right, you can take profits wherever you want to. An analysis doesn't make money. The trade does. The market may do whatever, no one knows what tomorrow will bring, so focuse on the only thing you can influence: The entry and the risk that comes with it. And take profits. Especially in these times.
Whatever it is that you do, may it be automated or manual trading, the only way to prove a system is working, is to backtest it. Over and over again, on hundreds or thousands of examples.
Thank you for taking the time to reading this rather complex and long article. Cheers ;)