To Those Rushing to Buy Apple Right Now 2024.12.30Hello, this is Greedy All-Day.
Today’s analysis focuses on Apple (AAPL).
Weekly Chart
The chart above is a weekly chart of Apple, and it serves as the perfect explanation of why now is not the time to buy Apple.
Since 2004, Apple has consistently maintained an upward trend, repeatedly hitting new all-time highs.
Of course, with such a strong upward trajectory, buying at any level and holding long enough will eventually yield profits.
But aren’t we here to maximize our returns as chart enthusiasts?
We’re not just blindly throwing money into the market like those who don’t study charts.
Let’s get to the point:
After the subprime mortgage crisis, Apple has always experienced corrections of 30% or more from its highs.
Shouldn’t we be waiting for the 30% correction before considering a buy? Buying now, at the highs, is far from ideal.
Daily Chart
Historically, Apple has seen massive corrections, such as an 83% drop and another of 64%.
While we may not expect such extreme corrections now, 30% corrections from highs have consistently occurred.
Looking at current levels:
The white box zone, representing a 30% correction, would bring Apple to approximately $180–$164.
This is where we should start considering entries rather than buying now.
Zoomed-In Daily Chart
A closer look at the daily chart reveals that the 20 EMA and 60 EMA are currently in a strong uptrend.
However, analyzing the angle of the upward trend since April 2024, we can estimate that price consolidation may occur until approximately February 2025, when the price could test the trendline.
If the trendline breaks, a one-way decline toward the white box zone is likely.
What’s next?
While the white box zone is a logical area for initial entries, patience may still pay off.
Coincidentally, the timeline aligns with the U.S. presidential transition, which could amplify a downward correction.
If this happens, the price may dip into the orange box zone, potentially reaching the green box zone at its lowest.
Conclusion
Don’t rush to buy Apple.
Be patient. The right time will come.
Buy smart, not impulsively.
Timing is everything, so let’s trade wisely. 🚀
Community ideas
AUD/JPY ShortAUD/JPY Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Break above area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
BTC to 124k - Quick ThoughtsBitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase and is simply waiting to expand further toward 124k.
Ideally, we’d like to see the price take out the key low first and then head toward 124k.
If the price ignores the key low and goes straight to 124k, we can be pretty sure it will retrace at that level and then look to take out the key level afterward.
What Those Peaks and Valleys on Your Chart Are Telling You (RSI)Hello, Traders! 👋🏻
Have you ever noticed those peaks and valleys at the bottom of your trading charts? Like tiny mountains rising and falling, they seem to reflect the market’s heartbeat 🩺. But what do they actually mean? Think of them as the market’s thermometer — showing you when it’s overheated or cooling down. This tool is none other than the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
RSI meaning? RSI is one of the simplest indicators traders use to time their moves. It tells you when an asset is overbought or oversold, helping you spot potential reversals and entry points.
In this article, we’ll break down how RSI works, why it’s such a powerful tool, and how you can use it to read the market.
What Is RSI?
What is the Relative Strength Index/RSI? RSI isn’t just a random line on your chart. It’s a momentum oscillator that measures how quickly prices are moving up or down. Think of it as a score for how strong the market’s mood is right now. Let’s dive into how to use the RSI indicator effectively.
1. Overbought and Oversold Levels. The most common way to use RSI trading is to look for these levels.
If RSI rises above 70, ➡️ the market might be overbought . This could be a good time to think about locking in profits or avoiding new buys.
If RSI falls below 30, ➡️the market might be oversold . This could signal a buying opportunity.
But don’t jump in blindly. These levels are just a starting point. Always check for confirmation from other indicators or chart patterns.
2. Spotting Divergences. Divergences happen when the RSI and the price move in opposite directions—a powerful signal that something is about to change.
Bullish Divergence: The price makes a lower low, but RSI makes a higher low. This suggests that selling pressure is weakening, and a reversal to the upside may be coming.
Bearish Divergence: The price makes a higher high, but the RSI makes a lower high. This indicates that buying momentum is fading, and a downturn could be near.
Divergences often occur before major reversals, giving you a chance to prepare for your next move.
Why RSI Deserves a Place in Your Toolkit
The Relative Strength Index is more than just a line on your chart—it’s a window 🪟 into the market’s psychology. It helps you see when traders are getting too greedy or too fearful, giving you the edge to act decisively.
But remember, no indicator works in isolation. Pair RSI with other tools, adapt it to different market conditions, and always trade with a plan.
So, traders, how do you use RSI in your strategy? Do you rely on it for entries and exits, or do you combine it with other tools? Let’s discuss it!
HOVR Heading For New Horizons?! Cup & Handle Set-UpLets break down NASDAQ:HOVR on the Daily Chart!
Price from Mid-Sept to Early-Dec outlined the "Bowl" of the Cup and on Dec. 11th, Price made the Retracement to the Golden Ratio Zone to start the "Handle"!
Today we have Price printing a STRONG Bullish Candle Breaking the Confirmation of the Cup & Handle Pattern @ .8799!
Fundamentally, NASDAQ:HOVR secured a $8.4 Million investment from an "unnamed investor" to help with the advancement of the Hybrid Electric Vertical Take-off Aircraft, the Cavorite X7.
-https://www.tradingview.com/news/mtnewswires.com:20241220:A3286797:0/
*In order for the Pattern to be Validated, WAIT for Price to Close above Confirmation @ .8799, then we will expect Price to come back down to Retest the Break @ ( .8900 - .8799 ), THEN the Pattern is Validated and we can look for Buying Opportunities!!
Indicators:
-RSI Above 50
-BBTrend Printing Green Bars
-Bullish Volume Building
Why I Think More Companies Will Buy Themselves Back in 2025I noticed that Nordstrom is making headlines today as the Nordstrom family moves to take the company private, effectively "buying it back" from public shareholders. I find this fascinating and may add it to one of my themes for 2025: more small and mid cap companies will leave public markets and go private.
What is Nordstrom's doing? The strategy involves acquiring all outstanding shares not already owned by the family, removing Nordstrom from the public stock exchange. Taking the company private allows the family to regain full control, enabling strategic decisions without the pressure of quarterly earnings reports or shareholder scrutiny. Actually, the exact quote from the company is rather interesting: The Nordstrom family believes it will be more successful without the scrutiny and demands of the public market.
For Nordstrom, going private could mean focusing on long-term investments and restructuring without the constraints of public market expectations, costs or regulations. Ah, the freedom to build! A few things to note about this:
1. Look at the trend of Nordstrom's in the chart above into this go private offer.
2. Nordstrom's will save massively on legal costs and fees associated with going public.
3. I think more companies that are floundering at the small and mid cap level will opt to go in this direction.
4. More CFOs and CEOs will ask if it's worth it to stay public if there is no immediate benefit.
5. What's also interesting is that the companies can always go public again if they think they need to raise money once again or need to tap back into the markets.
This will be a space to watch and I will be writing about this more in 2025.
Giveaway: Happy Holidays & Merry Christmas!It's that time of year where we can openly say (without sounding too cringe) how thankful we are to have you. Your unwavering support, charting enthusiasm, and shared passion for the markets is what drives us. You've been the heartbeat of our work and community.
As we close the book on another year of trading, we’re reminded that it’s not just the numbers or the record highs — it’s you that makes this journey worthwhile.
Happy Holidays from all of us at TradingView! May your holidays be filled with warmth, laughter, and just the right amount of volatility to keep things exciting. 🥂📈
Wishing you a breakout year ahead, fewer false signals, and plenty of wins — on and off the charts.
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⏳ JANUARY 3 ⏳ we announce the winners
To participate, leave a comment under this Idea, answering the two-part question:
1️⃣ What was your best trade this year?
2️⃣ What is your trading goal for 2025?
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💡 You can only participate once — three lucky winners will be picked randomly by the TradingView Santa to win a Premium plan for one year.
Watch this space — announcing the winners on January 3 !
Top Trading Ideas of 2025: AI, Bitcoin, Stock Picks and PoliticsIf you’re extremely online and watching the blog of every investment bank, financial institution and markets-focused media outlet, you’ve probably seen a few of those already — year-ahead previews are just too enticing to pass on.
With this Idea, we’re aiming to lay out what our traders care about the most — the big trading and investment trends that will drive a huge chunk of the buying and selling. While only a forecast, this type of outlook could help you to better prepare your trades and set your gaze upon the assets and categories that will slosh around billions upon billions next year.
So let’s do it.
🤖 AI on the Horizon
A thematic priority and one of the top investment trends in 2025 will undoubtedly be Nvidia artificial intelligence. AI is touted as the game changer of the tech industry and all big tech players are racing to seize as big a market share as they can.
To get a feel for what may be coming, let’s look at what happened this year. According to technology-focused analyst firm Omdia, Microsoft MSFT was the biggest buyer of Nvidia’s NVDA flagship AI chip Hopper. (One of these babies will run you about $30,000.) Estimates point that the tech giant bought 485,000 Hopper chips (~ $15 billion ). It’s understandable because Microsoft is OpenAI’s biggest investor with about $13 billion jammed into the ChatGPT parent.
Next in line for the Hopper chip in 2024 is Meta META with 224,000 units. Other big spenders for the AI-enabling tech include Tesla TSLA , Amazon AMZN and Google GOOGL .
Next year, that upside trend is expected to pick up the pace with Hopper’s successor Blackwell — a next-generation AI chip , which has seen insane demand , according to Nvidia’s main man Jensen Huang.
With all that AI buzz, investors will be closely following Nvidia’s every step for signs of whether the chip juggernaut could carry on the miraculous growth.
₿ Bitcoin is the New Orange
What’s the new year without some orange-colored cryptocurrency? Bitcoin BTCUSD is now a $2 trillion beast ready to tear down every permabear’s gloom-and-doom forecast. So what can you expect to see in 2025?
With Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, the cryptocurrency industry is poised for deregulation (think, crypto companies finally getting bank accounts). The President-elect has set out to assemble a team of A-list venture capitalists , entrepreneurs and, frankly, billionaires.
And with the Congress largely made up of crypto bros, digital-asset companies hope regulators will wave away a whole string of suits against them — Coinbase, Kraken and Binance have been carrying a target on their backs for years.
Stripping down weighty rules will help companies expand services and establish bigger footprints, potentially powering Bitcoin’s valuation.
Other than having banks take deposits or lend to crypto companies, something else can propel Bitcoin. The US government may soon have its very own Bitcoin strategic reserve . The vehicle will aim to collect a total of 1 million Bitcoin over a five-year time horizon. The goal: keep stacking and never sell.
🎯 The Game of Whack-a-Mole
Here’s why stocks won’t be skyrocketing in 2025: the Federal Reserve just said it’s nearly done with lowering interest rates. After Fed boss Jay Powell announced another trim to borrowing costs Wednesday, he struck a cautious note saying that the US central bank is now projecting two rate cuts, down from a previous forecast of four.
In other words, stock picking is back on the menu. It’s easy to feel smart — even a genius — when your trade is in profit together with the broader market. But true craftsmanship is best seen amid churning waters when markets are volatile, tough and choppy.
No doubt there will be winners even if equities are moving sideways or looking down. But it’s hard to imagine that US stocks could pull off a third straight 20%+ annual gain (the S&P 500 SPX was up more than 24% in 2023 and is up 24% on the year so far).
Also, the broad-based index is at a record high . So is the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average DJI and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite IXIC . Among the big factors that could contribute to a negative year for stocks are rate hikes, recession or stubborn inflation.
All in all, stock pickers, this might just be your year!
🏛️ Power Plays and Market Sways
President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda is pretty clear by now and he isn’t even officially sworn in. If it could be summed up in a sentence it would probably be “America, heck yeah.”
Trump’s second four-year term is expected to usher in a new era of growth through an America-first approach, sweeping deregulation and tax cuts. All that mix of reflation policies threatens to flare up price pressures again. Add to that some hefty tariffs on US imports and you get a powerful concoction of “wait and see if this bursts in your face.”
Inflation expectations have already crept up and the recent consumer price index readout for November does sound some alarm bells. If things are heating up, Trump’s moves may bring them to a boil — tariffs are inflationary and immigration control is inflationary.
And so if the election win introduced animal spirits into the markets, the presidency starting next year will get a chance to make good on all the promises given by the President-elect (and expose some potential weaknesses).
📣 With that, we conclude the walk through what we think makes the most sense to grab headlines next year. What’s your take — do you think there are opportunities to be seized in 2025? Share your thoughts and let’s spin up a discussion!
Will NVDIA rise at the expense of APPLE?We have seen in the past few days the NVDIA Corporation (NVDA) to be holding its ground better than other tech giants that got more inflated during the recent run like Tesla.
What we've discovered by running some regression tests among top 30 cap stocks, is a very interesting relationship between NVDIA and Apple Inc (AAPL). Though most people might think that the two have completely parallel paths on their growth, we found out that at times, their correlation has been negative.
Our sample data starts 2 years ago from the October - November 2022 market bottom of the Inflation Crisis. As you can see, this is where the first divergence between the two stocks started, with NVDIA rising to spearhead the recovery to a new Bull Cycle, while Apple was lagging behind and falling.
What followed was a period where naturally both stocks rose, which led to the first 'Bear' stage, what we call Phase 2 where both stocks showed a synchronized weakness (with Apple correcting more however).
Then after a recovery for both to their highs, NVDIA formed a Bull Flag, which led to Phase 3 (similar to the late 2022 price action): Apple topped and started falling aggressively, while NVDIA started an impressive rally.
Again a period of price increase for both stocks followed, which has led to a new Phase 2 (July -October 2024). In line with their 2-year pattern, Apple has been rising since the November U.S. elections, while NVDIA has formed a new Bull Flag.
If the price action continues to replicate this model, then we may see a new Phase 3, where Apple starts to correct while NVDIA's Bull Flag leads to a strong rally.
So do you think potential Apple capital outflows will turn into inflows for NVDIA?
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Will Santa Bring Bitcoin? Tracking Crypto Trends Each DecemberAs the festive season draws near, Bitcoin traders often wonder: is December a gift-giving month for the OG crypto or one where Santa skips the BTC chimney altogether?
Over the past decade, Bitcoin’s December performance has varied wildly — from record-setting rallies to stomach-churning corrections.
But this year, the festive cheer in the crypto world is particularly jolly.
Bitcoin BTCUSD has smashed through the $100,000 mark , Ethereum ETHUSD is dancing above $4,000 , and the markets are buzzing with speculation about lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve and crypto-friendly policies from Donald Trump’s White House.
Before we spill what we know about this Christmas’s crypto miracles, let’s take a trip down memory lane, tracking Bitcoin's price moves for each December over the past 10 years.
Bitcoin’s December Performance: A 10-Year Recap
2013: A Frosty End to the First Big Rally
❆ Start of December: ~$1,000
❆ End of December: ~$750 (-25%)
Bitcoin was coming off its first significant bull run, fueled by very early retail and media hype. The exuberance didn’t last as profit-taking and concerns over Mt. Gox’s solvency sent prices tumbling.
2014: A Crypto Winter Christmas
❆ Start of December: ~$375
❆ End of December: ~$320 (-15%)
2014 was a tough year for Bitcoin. The infamous Mt. Gox hack earlier had crushed investor confidence, and the December sell-off reflected broader pessimism about crypto's future.
2015: A Subtle Santa Rally
❆ Start of December: ~$360
❆ End of December: ~$430 (+19%)
After a year of consolidation, Bitcoin ended 2015 on a positive note. December brought renewed optimism, with the first whispers of institutional interest starting to surface.
2016: The Calm Before the Storm
❆ Start of December: ~$740
❆ End of December: ~$960 (+30%)
This was the beginning of Bitcoin’s journey into mainstream consciousness. A steady rally through December set the stage for the parabolic run of 2017.
2017: Deck the Halls With All-Time Highs
❆ Start of December: ~$10,800
❆ End of December: ~$14,000 (+30%)
Bitcoin mania hit fever pitch as it reached its then-all-time high of nearly $20,000 mid-month. However, the rally fizzled by year-end, signaling the start of a brutal bear market.
2018: Coal in the Stocking
❆ Start of December: ~$4,000
❆ End of December: ~$3,800 (-5%)
The post-2017 bubble burst was in full swing. By December, Bitcoin was down nearly 80% from its peak, and the market was entrenched in a bear trend.
2019: A Neutral Noel
❆ Start of December: ~$7,500
❆ End of December: ~$7,200 (-4%)
This year saw modest losses in December as Bitcoin remained range-bound following a mid-year rally that fizzled out.
2020: A Festive Bull Run
❆ Start of December: ~$19,500
❆ End of December: ~$29,000 (+48%)
The COVID-19 pandemic had accelerated Bitcoin adoption as institutions like MicroStrategy and PayPal jumped in. December capped off a historic year with a near 50% rally.
2021: Bitcoin on the Naughty List
❆ Start of December: ~$57,000
❆ End of December: ~$46,000 (-19%)
Despite starting strong, December 2021 saw Bitcoin slide as macroeconomic fears around inflation and Fed tapering weighed on risk assets.
2022: The Crypto Winter Lingers
❆ Start of December: ~$17,000
❆ End of December: ~$16,500 (-3%)
The collapse of FTX in November left the crypto market reeling. With investor confidence shattered, Bitcoin struggled to recover, hovering near its bear-market lows.
2023: A Recovery Year
❆ Start of December: ~$40,000
❆ End of December: ~$42,500 (+6%)
With the market recovering from the harsh crypto winter of 2022, Bitcoin climbed steadily throughout the year, culminating in December's moderate gains.
Bitcoin ended 2023 on a modestly bullish note, driven by renewed optimism around regulatory developments and institutional interest, especially around the Bitcoin exchange-traded funds that would launch in January 2024.
Final Days of 2024: A December to Remember?
Bitcoin’s 2024 trajectory has been nothing short of remarkable, with the OG cryptocurrency trading above $108,000 — a new all-time high. December’s price action will likely hinge on several key factors:
1️⃣ Federal Reserve Policy : Markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the Fed's final meeting of the year on December 18. This has already fueled risk-on sentiment, but a surprise decision to hold rates could spark a possible sell-off.
2️⃣ Institutional Demand : Big-shot investors have continued to pour into Bitcoin in 2024, with the genuine Bitcoin ETFs accumulating more than $100 billion in assets.
3️⃣ Market Sentiment : After breaking $100,000, Bitcoin’s psychological momentum is strong. Traders are eyeing $125,000 as the next target, though volatility could lead to sharp corrections.
4️⃣ Donald Trump : The sheer power concentrated in one man — President-elect has vowed to support the growth of the crypto industry through a Bitcoin strategic reserve, lower taxes, sweeping deregulation and higher tariffs on US imports. Bullishness is truly in the air heading into 2025.
What’s Under the Tree for Crypto in 2025?
Looking ahead, the outlook for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market remains bullish. The combination of institutional, business and consumer adoption, favorable regulatory developments, and a macroeconomic environment that continues to favor risk assets sets the stage for further growth. While $108,000 is impressive, many believe it’s just the beginning of Bitcoin’s next chapter.
As we wrap up 2024, one thing is clear: the crypto market never takes a holiday (or any days off). Whether the Fed today delivers a rate cut or not, traders can expect plenty of action as we head into the new year. So, grab your hot cocoa, keep your TradingView app handy, and enjoy the ride.
Happy holidays, and may your trades be merry and bright!
Tesla is overhyped and over-extendedHistory repeats itself. Tesla is getting overhyped without clear tangible reason. Robotaxis? Sure, maybe they will be launched next year, but how will the car charge itself? A bunch of logistics and legislation are not yet in place. The Cyber-Truck was a bit of a failure. At least two Chinese EV's are not only catching up, but overpassing it (Nio, BYD). The new Tesla refreshed models are in a way a step-back. Disclosure: I do own a 2022 Tesla Model 3 Performance, but am a bit disappointed with the latest model refresh. Instead of giving people what they want, HUD/screen for the driver, they took out the stalks, and the parking sensors... great decision, now the car instead of showing me exactly the distance to an object, it continuously beeps for non-existent ones.
Anyway, returning to the Tesla stock, with a P/E ratio of over 100, no way this will stay at such a value for long. One of the reasons it got so high, I suspect is due to it being somewhat over-shorted already. Still, what goes up, must come down (eventually).
I'm predicting a more realistic 250-280 within the next 6 months (June 2025), a similar repeat of March/Aug 2022 when Tesla performed by far at their best (yellow/blue paths superimposed over the current stock price).
JPMorgan: Not the Star of BethlehemThe Christmas season is known for three Wisemen following a light in the night sky to Bethlehem. But another, less jovial star may have settled above the House of Morgan.
The first pattern on today’s chart of JPMorgan Chase is the candle on November 25. Prices jumped above $253 in the first five minutes of that Monday morning, but quickly reversed and closed at $250.29. Some traders may view that as a bearish shooting-star pattern.
JPM proceed to close lower the next six sessions and was soon under $250. Its shares have continued downward, probing above their 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) while mostly closing below it.
That could suggest a short-term downtrend has developed. Falling MACD may provide a similar signal.
Finally, a large gap occurred on November 6 after Donald Trump was reelected President. Could JPM now look to fill some of that space?
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Cheers to 2024: Charting The Year with TradeStationJoin us LIVE with David Russell, Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation, as we take a comprehensive look at the market trends shaping the final months of 2024. In this episode, we’re focusing on election-related trades, end-of-year positioning, and a year-in-review to help you set up for a successful transition into 2025.
With the end of the year approaching, we’ll discuss critical strategies for navigating the final countdown of 2024, covering everything from political events to holiday market dynamics.
Here’s what we’ll cover:
1. End-of-Year Trades: Key strategies for positioning your portfolio as we head into the year’s end, including opportunities tied to the holiday shopping season.
2. Year in Review: A detailed look at the top-performing sectors and stocks of 2024, and the lessons we can learn from both the winners and underperformers.
3. Market Recap & 2025 Outlook: Important takeaways from this year’s market trends and how to apply those insights to set yourself up for success in the new year.
4. Holiday Events Impact: How major events like Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the Christmas shopping season will affect consumer-driven stocks and overall market sentiment.
As we head into the final stretch of 2024, we’ll also be reflecting on the lessons learned throughout the year and looking ahead to opportunities in 2025. Happy holidays, and best of luck with your trades as we wrap up 2024 and head into a new year of possibilities.
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Get Ready for a MASSIVE Week Ahead! Watch now! 🚨 Get Ready for a MASSIVE Week Ahead! 🚨
Don't miss out on preparing for the upcoming week and the year-end Santa Claus Rally! Make sure to watch this entire video to stay ahead of the game.
📊 In this video, we'll cover:
-Major economic news and events
-Market trends for NASDAQ:QQQ , AMEX:SPY , and AMEX:IWM
-Latest updates on all current H5 Trades such as NYSE:HIMS NASDAQ:MBLY NYSE:SQ NASDAQ:MARA NYSE:FUBO & more!
This video is JAM-PACKED with insights and valuable gems you don't want to miss! 💎
Buckle up and check it out now! 👇
DeGRAM | GOLD pullback from resistanceGOLD is moving in an ascending channel above the trend lines.
The chart has formed a harmonic pattern.
We expect a pullback to the support level coinciding with the 50% retracement level
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Freshworks: Why you should consider this company as a good buy.Hello,
Today we shall be looking at Freshworks.
Freshworks, Inc. is a software development company, which engages in software-as-a-service products. Its products include Fresh desk, Fresh service, Fresh sales, Fresh marketer, and Fresh team. You can find more details on the company here www.tradingview.com
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS- Checklist
Structure drawing (Trend line drawing on past price chart data)- As shown in chart below
Patterns identification (Naming patterns on past price chart data for future wave)- The price is correcting & forming a flat pattern
Future indication (Reading indicator for future wave)- 0 crossover on MACD
Future wave (Drawing on future price chart using future indication from indicator)- As shown in the chart below
Future reversal point (Identifying trend reversal point on price chart using structure)- Target at the top as shown
This is as shown here:
Third Quarter 2024 Financial Summary Results
Revenue: Total revenue was $186.6 million, representing growth of 22% compared to total revenue of $153.6 million in the third quarter of 2023, and 22% adjusting for constant currency.
GAAP (Loss) from Operations: GAAP (loss) from operations was $(38.9) million, compared to $(38.7) million in the third quarter of 2023.
GAAP Net (Loss) Per Share: GAAP basic and diluted net (loss) per share was $(0.10) based on 302.1 million weighted-average shares outstanding, compared to $(0.11) based on 294.1 million weighted-average shares outstanding in the third quarter of 2023.
Non-GAAP Net Income Per Share: Non-GAAP diluted net income per share was $0.11 based on 302.7 million weighted-average shares outstanding, compared to $0.08 based on 302.6 million weighted-average shares outstanding in the third quarter of 2023.
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities: Net cash provided by operating activities was $42.3 million, compared to $23.9 million in the third quarter of 2023.
Free Cash Flow: Free cash flow was $40.1 million, compared to $22.1 million in the third quarter of 2023.
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Marketable Securities: Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities were $1.05 billion as of September 30, 2024.
To follow on company news see www.tradingview.com
Our recommendation
Freshworks is strategically positioned for future growth. Over the past five years, its revenue has consistently increased, and the company is showing promising signs of nearing profitability. Achieving profitability will unlock additional cash flow, enabling Freshworks to reinvest in its operations and expand into untapped markets, fueling long-term growth.
From a technical analysis perspective, the stock has been consolidating in a sideways correction over the past two years, reflecting a period of accumulation. Recent momentum peaked in October 2024 and the stock rose over 50% in a few days, with clear indications of a potential breakout as investor interest intensifies. In the shorter timeframe, a minor correction appears currently underway, presenting an attractive entry point for new investors around the $15 level. With a medium-term target of $24, this setup offers a compelling opportunity for value-seeking investors looking to capitalize on Freshworks' upward trajectory.
Our recommendation is a strong buy on this stock at the current areas with a target of $24 per share.
Current price: $16.41 (11th December 2024)
BBW: One of the Great Wealth Transfer BeneficiariesHey, all. Wanted to get a video made for the first time in a few weeks. I have a position in NYSE:BBW that has been doing well. In my opinion, this is a stock that is geared for further upside. Earnings have been coming in consistent and they have done a good job with their product offerings as I found out when visiting their website recently.
I do think NYSE:BBW can continue the growth, especially as more Millenials and Gen-Z have kids. The Baby Boomer generation will want to spend money on their grandkids and that should drive up cute stuffed animal sales. At any rate, please do your own research and invest carefully and wisely!
Hope you enjoy the video, and best of luck out there!
Why we don't trust this bounce on AUD/JPYMy short AUD/JPY bias sprang into action quicker than I expected two weeks ago. While support has since been found, it looks like it wants to retrace against that initial drop. Yet I have my eyes on the bigger (and more bearish) prize, and when comparing this cross to other yen pairs, I suspect another leg lower could be due when the current bounce fizzles out as anticipated.
MS
Investing in Cybersecurity: PANW vs CRWD vs FTNT◉ Abstract
The cybersecurity landscape is rapidly evolving, with emerging threats and innovative solutions driving growth in the industry. This article examines the competitive dynamics between three leading cybersecurity stocks: Palo Alto Networks (PANW), CrowdStrike (CRWD), and Fortinet (FTNT). As these companies sprint to become the top cybersecurity provider, we analyse their strengths, weaknesses, and strategies for success.
◉ Global Cybersecurity Market Overview
The global cybersecurity market has experienced significant growth and is projected to continue expanding in the coming years. As of 2023, the market was valued at approximately USD 192.4 billion and is expected to reach between USD 501 billion and USD 608 billion by 2033, with compound annual growth rates (CAGR) ranging from 9% to 12% depending on the source and forecast period considered.
◉ Growth Drivers
1. Increasing Cyber Threats: The frequency and sophistication of cyber-attacks, including ransomware and data breaches, are rising, prompting organizations to enhance their security measures.
2. Digital Transformation: The rapid adoption of digital technologies, such as cloud computing and the Internet of Things (IoT), expands the attack surface and necessitates robust cybersecurity solutions.
3. Regulatory Compliance: Stricter regulations regarding data protection, like GDPR and CCPA, compel organizations to invest in cybersecurity to ensure compliance and protect sensitive information.
4. Proliferation of Smart Devices: The increasing use of connected devices in homes and industries creates more entry points for cyber threats, driving demand for advanced security solutions.
5. E-commerce Growth: The rise in online transactions increases the need for secure payment systems and data protection, further fuelling the cybersecurity market.
Remote Work Trends: The shift towards remote work has heightened the need for secure remote access solutions to protect organizational data from cyber threats.
◉ Regional Insights
● North America: This region dominates the global cybersecurity market, accounting for over 36% of the market share. The presence of major tech firms and a high incidence of cyber threats contribute to its leadership position.
● Europe: The European market is also growing rapidly due to increased digital transformation efforts and regulatory pressures that emphasize data security.
● Asia-Pacific: Expected to exhibit the fastest growth rate during the forecast period, driven by industrialization, rising internet penetration, and awareness of cybersecurity risks.
◉ Major Players in the Cybersecurity Market
1. Palo Alto Networks NASDAQ:PANW - $132.7 B
2. CrowdStrike Holdings NASDAQ:CRWD - $89.7 B
3. Fortinet NASDAQ:FTNT - $75.26 B
In this comparative analysis we are focused to provide a detailed understanding of the competitive dynamics of three cybersecurity giants: Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike Holdings, and Fortinet.
◉ Company Overviews
● Palo Alto Networks
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. is a leading provider of cybersecurity solutions worldwide. The company offers a range of products and services, including network security platforms, cloud security solutions, security operation solutions, subscription services, and professional services. Headquartered in Santa Clara, California, Palo Alto Networks was incorporated in 2005 and has since become a trusted partner for organizations seeking to protect themselves from cyber threats.
● CrowdStrike Holdings
CrowdStrike provides cloud-delivered cybersecurity solutions, offering endpoint, cloud workload, identity, and data protection. Its Falcon platform provides various security services, including threat intelligence, vulnerability management, and AI-powered workflow automation. Headquartered in Austin, Texas, CrowdStrike was incorporated in 2011.
● Fortinet
Fortinet, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California. The company provides comprehensive cybersecurity and converged networking and security solutions worldwide. Its offerings include secure networking solutions, network firewall solutions, wireless LAN solutions, and secure connectivity solutions. Additionally, Fortinet provides Unified SASE solutions, security operations solutions, and a range of security services and support. The company serves a diverse customer base, including enterprises, service providers, governments, and small and medium-sized businesses.
◉ Strategic Growth Initiatives of Leading Cybersecurity Players
● Palo Alto Networks
1. Platformization: Transitioning from a traditional firewall vendor to a comprehensive cybersecurity platform provider, offering a wider range of security solutions.
2. Next-Generation Security: Continuing to deliver advanced security solutions to address evolving cyber threats.
● CrowdStrike
1. Innovation: Leveraging AI-powered capabilities to enhance the Falcon platform and maintain a competitive edge in the cybersecurity market.
2. Expansion: Expanding into adjacent markets, such as cloud security and identity protection, to broaden its customer base and product offerings.
● Fortinet
1. "Rule of 45" Framework: Adhering to the "Rule of 45" framework to balance revenue growth with profitability, ensuring a sustainable business model.
2. Product Refresh Cycle: Implementing a strategic product refresh cycle to drive upgrade activity among existing customers and stimulate revenue growth.
◉ Technical Standings
● Palo Alto Networks
➖ The stock has been on a strong upward trajectory, marked by a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows.
➖ Following a significant breakout last month, it is currently trading at an all-time high, with expectations for further increases.
● CrowdStrike Holdings
➖ In general, this stock is trending upward, although it has faced considerable price volatility over an extended period.
➖ After reaching an all-time high close to the 400 mark, it underwent a sharp correction.
However, the stock is now climbing again and nearing its previous peak.
● Fortinet
➖ This stock had undergone a lengthy consolidation phase lasting nearly three years, resulting in the development of a Broadening pattern.
➖ After a recent breakout, the price is now targeting new highs.
◉ Relative Strength
➖ The chart clearly demonstrates Fortinet's exceptional performance, showcasing an impressive return of nearly 88%. In comparison, Mastercard and Visa have generated returns of 53% and 41%, respectively.
◉ Revenue & Profit Analysis
● Palo Alto Networks
◾ Year-over-Year
➖ In FY24, Palo Alto Networks (PANW) celebrated an impressive revenue surge of 16.5%, achieving $8,027 million, a notable increase from $6,893 million in FY23.
➖ The EBITDA for FY24 also experienced a substantial boost, reaching $1,094 million, up from $590 million in FY23.
◾ Quarter-over-Quarter
➖ In the most recent October quarter, PANW reported revenues of $2,139 million, a slight dip from the $2,190 million recorded in July 2024. However, this still represents a year-over-year growth of nearly 14% from $1,878 million in the same quarter last year.
➖ The company also reported its highest-ever EBITDA of $413 million in October, an increase from $314 million in July 2024. Compared to the same quarter last year, this figure has risen by almost 20% from $279.5 million.
➖ In October, the diluted EPS rose to $7.69 (LTM), up from $7.28 (LTM) in July 2024, marking an extraordinary year-over-year increase of 333% from $1.78 (LTM).
● CrowdStrike
◾ Year-over-Year
➖ CrowdStrike (CRWD) saw a robust revenue growth of 36.3% in FY23, reaching $3,055 million, up from $2,241 million in FY22.
➖ Conversely, the EBITDA for FY24 has seen a decline, reporting $106 million, down from $118 million in FY23.
◾ Quarter-over-Quarter
➖ In the latest October quarter, CRWD's revenue rose to $1,010 million, compared to $964 million in July 2024. This reflects a year-over-year increase of nearly 28.5% from $786 million in the same quarter last year.
➖ The EBITDA for the most recent June quarter was $15.3 million, showing a significant drop from $52.4 million in July 2024.
➖ In October, the diluted EPS decreased to $0.51 (LTM), down from $0.69 (LTM) in July 2024.
● Fortinet
◾ Year-over-Year
➖ In fiscal year 2023, Fortinet reported a remarkable revenue increase of 20%, reaching $5,304 million, up from $4,417 million in fiscal year 2022.
➖ The EBITDA also saw a significant rise, with the 2023 fiscal year totaling $1,350 million, compared to $1,070 million the previous year.
◾ Quarter-over-Quarter
➖ In the latest September quarter, revenue continued to grow, hitting $1,508 million, an increase from $1,434 million in June 2024. This represents a substantial year-over-year growth of nearly 13% from $1,335 million.
➖ Furthermore, EBITDA for the September quarter neared $500 million, up from $465 million in the prior quarter, reflecting an impressive increase of nearly 51% from $330 million in the same quarter last year.
➖ The diluted earnings per share (EPS) also saw a significant increase in September, rising to $0.7 (LTM) from $0.5 (LTM) in June 2024, marking a notable jump of 70% compared to $0.41 (LTM) in the same quarter last year.
◉ Valuation
● P/E Ratio
➖ PANW stands at a P/E ratio of 48.6x.
➖ CRWD is at a P/E ratio of 707.9x.
➖ FTNT shows a P/E ratio of 49.2x.
◾ These numbers indicate that CRWD is considerably overvalued when compared to its competitors.
● P/B Ratio
➖ PANW's P/B ratio stands at 22.5x.
➖ CRWD's P/B ratio is 29.3x.
➖ On the other hand, FTNT's P/B ratio is significantly higher at 82.9x.
◾ FTNT's high P/B ratio may indicate overvaluation, but its asset-light business model reduces the significance of this metric.
● PEG Ratio
➖ PANW boasts a PEG ratio of 0.14.
➖ CRWD's PEG ratio is recorded at 0.66.
➖ FTNT, meanwhile, has a PEG ratio of 1.26.
◾ Analyzing the PEG ratios reveals that PANW is currently undervalued relative to its peers.
◉ Cash Flow Analysis
➖ PANW has achieved an impressive operating cash flow of $3,257 million for the fiscal year 2024, a substantial rise from $2,777 million in fiscal year 2023.
➖ In a similar vein, CRWD has also seen a positive trend in its operating cash flow, which has climbed to $1,166 million in fiscal year 2024, compared to $941 million the year before.
➖ Furthermore, FTNT has reported a remarkable increase in its operating cash flow, growing from $1,730 million in fiscal year 2022 to $1,935 million in fiscal year 2023.
◉ Debt Analysis
● Palo Alto Networks
➖ Debt to Equity Ratio: Approximately 0.1 as of October 2024, indicating a stable financial structure.
➖ Total Debt: About $645 million.
➖ Total Shareholder Equity: $5,911 million.
◾ PANW's ratio reflects a cautious debt approach, balancing equity and debt financing, with net debt well-supported by operating cash flow, enhancing financial stability.
● CrowdStrike
➖ Debt to Equity Ratio: Approximately 0.24.
➖ Total Debt: $743 million.
➖ Total Shareholder Equity: $3,096 million.
◾ CRWD's ratio suggests a thoughtful strategy regarding debt, maintaining a balance between equity and debt financing.
● Fortinet
➖ Debt to Equity Ratio: Approximately 1.1, indicating a significant level of debt relative to equity.
➖ Total Debt: $993 million.
➖ Total Shareholder Equity: $908 million.
◾ FTNT’s ratio shows a considerable reliance on debt financing, which can facilitate growth but also introduces risks related to interest obligations.
◉ Top Shareholders
● Palo Alto Networks
➖ The Vanguard Group has significantly increased its investment in Palo Alto Networks, now holding an impressive 9.13% stake, which marks a 1.53% rise from the last quarter.
➖ In comparison, Blackrock holds a notable 7.65% share in the company.
● CrowdStrike
➖ Turning to CrowdStrike, The Vanguard Group has also enhanced its position, elevating its ownership to an impressive 8.76%, reflecting a 1.84% increase since the previous quarter.
➖ Conversely, Blackrock possesses a considerable 7.35% stake.
● Fortinet
➖ Regarding Fortinet, The Vanguard Group commands a substantial 8.79% share in the firm.
➖ In contrast, Blackrock holds a 7.44% stake.
◉ Conclusion
After conducting an exhaustive analysis of the major players in the cybersecurity sector, which included an in-depth look at both technical features and financial reports, we have determined that although Palo Alto Networks (PANW) might seem more appealing in terms of valuation, Fortinet (FTNT) stands out as the leading candidate in the industry due to its solid financials. Although concerns about debt exist, the company's strong cash reserves mitigate these worries significantly.
On the other hand, CrowdStrike (CRWD) has faced a recent setback with an outage that has shaken investor trust, leading to a decline in its stock price and rendering it a less favourable investment option for the foreseeable future.
Moreover, the cybersecurity sector is set to grow significantly due to rising cyber threats, fast-paced technology changes, and stricter regulations. Investors are advised to conduct thorough research, define clear investment goals, and maintain a long-term outlook to take advantage of this growth while minimizing risks.