Get started

Community ideas

S&P Double TopHistory and Introduction Everyone in the market today remembers broadly the financial response to C19. It We see it every time that we look at the price chart and we see the spike down and the V recovery. What a lot of people may not remember is the investigation into SoftBank for essentially causing a short squeeze by use of call options and gamma hedging. When that news story came out my long term assumption was we would be returning to the C19 low and that has informed every idea I have put out since then. News story www.investmentwatchblog.com An Explain Like I am 5 From Reddit When you write a call as a seller you essentially take a short position against the stock delta wise When SoftBank bought loads of calls that were out of the money then the writers had large negative delta positions against these tech stocks. One common way to offset a negative delta is you can hedge with owning shares to offset the negative position from the calls you write. As the calls were heavily wrote then shares were added to offset risk which contributed towards momentum. As the stock positions were entered it drove up price of stock which put those out of the money options closer to the money leading to more share purchases while SoftBank continued to purchase more and more calls leading to an increased share price between delta hedging and general market momentum. Someone can correct me if I’m off but that’s my broad description www.reddit.com Essentially when that news story came out I, personally, understood all these gains were unsustainable and were going to be given back. This was in addition to all of the other stimulus spending that was going on. There was still gains to be made or lost speculating in swing trading but my ultimate goal was to not buy the top and not to sell bottoms. Main Chart Analysis The main chart has been left pretty simple. We have the Gaussian Channel on top and we can see that in the 70s there were two points in time investors or traders got to buy below the gaussian channel. Fortunes could be made by buying below the channel and merely selling above the guassian channel. Loading up on dividend stocks would have also been very prudent. We can also see the opportunity came again in the 2000s. We can also see in purple the tops where the ADX has been at 20 or below. The 70s dip had the low ADX but the 2000s did not. It is not a necessary condition that the ADX be low for price to go below the gaussian channel, but it is suggestive that with the current low monthly ADX we have a fair shot of getting there. We also see that similar to the 1970s the ADX has been declining over each high for over the last decade. Not a good set of circumstances to be in. The right side of the chart shows the double top itself without any indicators and on the weekly time frame. As it stands right now it looks like a “lower high” double top but price could rally up 17% from the current level and this idea is still valid. The last top took over 300 days to develop and start to sell off to create the valley low. We can still have a significant amount of sideways as bulls get exhausted. Double Tops Double tops are suppose to have a flat base before the uptrend begins and then return to the flat base per Bulkowski, who is broadly considered to have written one of the modern trading “bibles.” www.thepatternsite.com The chart below shows what I consider the flat base to be. The fib draw on the double top does get us right into that range. Another thing to remember is that we don’t need to see an impulse that looks strait down. It is quite probable that price action takes out the valley low and then rally to test previous support as resistance. Here is an example of a double top on bitcoin from the 2018 bear market. The 4-hour chart provides the detail of a double top that developed over 25 days from the time the began to top to rejection oat previous support. So, not only could price action go sideways for some 300 days as the second half of the double top is created, but once price sells off we could spend considerable time in a suckers rally as price returns to previous support and tests it as resistance. Quarter Chart Long term, we have a chance to buy in the quarterly gaussian channel. This would require significant sidewise-ish or channel-ish price action for a decade. Dow Theory Basic Dow theory on bull markets has three phases, accumulation (smart money), public participation, and excess. From there we enter distribution, public participation, and panic. One tenant of Dow theory is indices must confirm one another. www.investopedia.com My linked idea will show that I thought that NDX would have a bull trap. That idea has been invalidated because rather than forming a classic bull trap NDX is likewise in a double top. But having both NDX and SPX in a topping formation suggests that we are in distribution. Since we are talking about Dow theory lets look at the DJI. T Guess what? he Dow looks like it is in a double top as well. Having all three indices appear to be topping within 5 percent of previous ATH is pretty bad. NASDAQ/S&P Since the Nasdaq is more volatile than the S&P we can look for bearishness in the NDX/SPX pair to see broader bearishness in the market. I am personally staying away from the Nasdaq as an investment as possible until it reaches its own double top target against the S&P. Crypto Assets Since I believe the SPX is a index that could be topping for over 300 days and having several consolidations on the way down I would expect some assts to go crazy as investors rotate and individual assets have blow off tops. I expect some massive rallies with some select cryptos and then a lot of despair. A lot of movement can happen in crypto over the lifespan of this idea. Here is bitcoin. What is the traditional target of a rising wedge? The beginning of the wedge. And there is no guarantee that bitcoin will set a higher high. If it does I am selling and probably never returning. Conclusion As someone who thinks the United States have been off sound money since the creation of the Federal Reserve I see all of this as the consequences of late-stage socialism. Subsidies to support government initiatives, transfer payments, bloated public services, debasement of the money supply all lead to public excess in the stock market. The United States as been more resilient than a lot of other countries in warding off the pernicious influence of socialist actors but once the Federal Reserve was created the ultimate conclusion was clear, it was just a matter of timing. Of course, due to inherent theory and model failure of most socialists they don’t realize it is the socialist policies that got the market here. Just like most don’t realize we are in distribution. The distribution phase can take a long time and I expect to be ignoring a lot of news. It’s a distraction. I am going to make the trades and investments as I see them. The main chart focuses on what happened to the SPX in two bear markets, one in the 70s and another in the 2000s. What happened to sound money (precious metals) in the 70s and 2000? Quite simply they went crazy. What happened to the Gold/SPX ratio? They reached muti-decades lows. If the SPX is topping then I would expect to see a massive upside pattern on gold. And I do. There is a cup and handle or ascending triangle. Based on that the time for me to rotate back into the S&P generally would be when the SPX/Gold ratio hits a double bottom from the low of 2011 Likewise with Silver and the S&P I think it is a decent time to take my kids to the precious metals store.
SP:SPXShort
by This_Guhy
17
HOW-TO evaluate volatility quality?The Volatility Quality Index (VQI) is an indicator used to measure the quality of market volatility. Volatility refers to the extent of price changes in the market. VQI helps traders assess market stability and risk levels by analyzing price volatility. This introduction may be a bit abstract, so let me help you understand it with a comparative metaphor if you're not immersed in various technical indicators. Imagine you are playing a jump rope game, and you notice that sometimes the rope moves fast and other times it moves slowly. This is volatility, which describes the speed of the rope. VQI is like an instrument specifically designed to measure rope speed. It observes the movement of the rope and provides a numerical value indicating how fast or slow it is moving. This value can help you determine both the stability of the rope and your difficulty level in jumping over it. With this information, you know when to start jumping and when to wait while skipping rope. In trading, VQI works similarly. It observes market price volatility and provides a numerical value indicating market stability and risk levels for traders. If VQI has a high value, it means there is significant market volatility with relatively higher risks involved. Conversely, if VQI has a low value, it indicates lower market volatility with relatively lower risks involved as well. The calculation involves dividing the range by values obtained from calculating Average True Range (ATR) multiplied by a factor/multiple. The purpose of VQI is to assist traders in evaluating the quality of market volatility so they can develop better trading strategies accordingly. Therefore, VQI helps traders understand the quality of market volatility for better strategy formulation and risk management—just like adjusting your jumping style based on rope speed during jump-rope games; traders can adjust their trading decisions based on VQI values. The calculation of VQI indicator depends on given period length and multiple factors: Period length is used to calculate Average True Range (ATR), while the multiple factor adjusts the range of volatility. By dividing the range by values and multiplying it with a multiple, VQI numerical value can be obtained. VQI indicator is typically presented in the form of a histogram on price charts. Higher VQI values indicate better quality of market volatility, while lower values suggest poorer quality of volatility. Traders can use VQI values to assess the strength and reliability of market volatility, enabling them to make wiser trading decisions. It should be noted that VQI is just an auxiliary indicator; traders should consider other technical indicators and market conditions comprehensively when making decisions. Additionally, parameter settings for VQI can also be adjusted and optimized based on individual trading preferences and market characteristics.
by blackcat1402
18
British Pound Plunges as Bank of England Holds Interest RatesI bring today is far from uplifting. As you may already be aware, the British Pound (GBP) has taken a significant hit in the wake of the recent decision by the Bank of England (BoE) to hold interest rates steady. This unforeseen turn of events has left many traders like yourself feeling disheartened and uncertain about the future of GBP. The BoE's decision to maintain interest rates has sent shockwaves throughout the financial markets, triggering a substantial decline in the value of the British Pound. This unfortunate turn of events has left the currency vulnerable and exposed to further downside risks. While it is indeed disheartening to witness such a decline, it is crucial for us to adapt and seize opportunities even in the face of adversity. Given the current state of affairs, I would like to encourage you to consider taking advantage of the situation by exploring short positions on GBP. The downward trajectory of the British Pound may present an opportunity for you to potentially profit from this unfortunate turn of events. However, please remember that trading involves risks, and it is essential to conduct thorough analysis and consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. In times like these, it is crucial for traders like yourself to stay informed and adapt to the ever-changing market conditions. Monitoring economic indicators, central bank decisions, and geopolitical developments will be key in navigating the turbulent waters of the foreign exchange market. If you require any further information or assistance regarding shorting GBP or any other trading-related queries, please don't hesitate to comment below. We are here to support you and provide you with the necessary guidance to make informed trading decisions during these challenging times. Remember, even in the face of adversity, the trading world remains full of opportunities. By staying informed, adapting your strategies, and seeking professional advice, you can navigate these uncertain waters and potentially turn this unfortunate situation to your advantage.
TVC:BXYShort
by bryandowningqln
15
Hawkish Fed! Strong Dollar! - What are the markets expecting?he Fed has kept interest rates steady as expected, but Chairman Jerome Powell's statements were much more hawkish than anticipated. In summary, 12 out of 19 Fed members are calling for one more interest rate hike this year. No interest rate cuts are expected this year. Inflation is expected to remain high over the next 12 months. Tightening and balance sheet reduction will continue. An increase in unemployment is expected for 2024. Even if there's no interest rate hike this month, there could be one more increase later in the year. Key takeaways from the monetary policy meeting minutes and Powell's remarks: The year-end interest rate expectation for 2023 has been raised to 5.6%, and the expected rate for 2024, initially at 4.6%, has been increased to 5.1%. Additionally, the expectation for 2025, previously at 3.4%, has been raised to 3.9%. Long-term interest rates will remain high, with the long-term rate expectation at 2.5%. Unemployment expectations: 3.8% for 2023 4.1% for 2024 There is a bias towards an increase in unemployment. Core inflation expectations: 3.7% for 2023 2.6% for 2024 2.3% for 2025 2.0% for 2026 Expectations suggest a gradual decline rather than a rapid one. With the release of the monetary policy minutes, 2-year U.S. Treasury yields have risen to 5.1%, which is particularly negative news for stocks and gold. MARKET EXPECTATIONS: Gold: Initially, gold may continue to rise to the range of 1,960-1,963 as an immediate response. However, the continued high-interest environment will exert downward pressure on gold, and we may see a decline to around 1,880 levels after reaching 1,960. U.S. Stock Indices: Given the high-interest rates and high inflation, we shouldn't expect significant gains in the stock market. Currently, it's prudent to view every increase as a selling opportunity. USD: The strengthening of the dollar is expected to persist, especially against currencies of countries signaling relaxation in their monetary policies. The dollar is likely to maintain its strength for some time. EUR: The European Central Bank (ECB) took a dovish stance in its recent interest rate decision, reducing the possibility of further rate hikes. Although there has been a slight decrease in Eurozone inflation data, we may see a chart indicating USD dominance and a downward trend in the EUR/USD pair. JPY: Japan remains the only country with negative interest rates (-0.10%) and a commitment to a loose monetary policy, suggesting that the depreciation of the yen will continue. GBP: The Bank of England (BoE) decision and statements tomorrow will be crucial for the pound. However, our expectation is that tomorrow's announcements will resemble the Fed's hawkish stance, leading to some strengthening of the GBP. We will publish a new analysis after tomorrow's meeting to provide an update on the pound's situation. Oil: Today's U.S. crude oil inventory data came in below expectations, indicating that OPEC's production cuts are still in effect. We expect oil prices to reach $100 due to ongoing production cuts, which will negatively impact both stock markets and inflation for some time.
by TradeAndMeApp
25
The Power of Support Lines: A Bullish Trend on the Horizon?Introduction: In technical analysis, support lines play a crucial role in identifying potential trends and predicting future market movements. When multiple levels of support converge at higher levels, it can indicate a strong bullish trend. In this article, we will explore such a scenario and discuss how it could impact the overall direction of the market. The Case Study: Let's consider an example where the support lines for the weekly, daily, and hourly charts all intersect at a higher level. This convergence suggests that there may be a strong upward pressure pushing prices towards new highs. However, before jumping into conclusions, let's analyze each chart individually to gain a better understanding of the situation. Weekly Chart ]Analysis: On the weekly chart, the support line has been consistently above the price range, indicating a solid base of support. As long as this level remains intact, the bulls have control over the market. Moreover, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is hovering around the mid-50s, which indicates a neutral market condition. Daily Chart Analysis: Moving down to the daily chart, we notice that the support line is also above the price range, confirming our initial observation from the weekly chart. Additionally, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator is showing a bullish divergence, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. Hourly Chart Analysis: Finally, let's examine the hourly chart. Here, we see that the support line is once again above the price range, reinforcing the idea of a solid base of support. Furthermore, the Stochastic Oscillator is reading near its oversold territory, signaling a potential bottom. Conclusion: While the intersection of these three support lines at higher levels is certainly intriguing, it's essential to remember that no single piece of evidence can guarantee a specific outcome. Other factors like economic indicators, geopolitical events, and investor sentiment must also be taken into account when making trading decisions. However, if we combine the findings from all three charts with other relevant data points, we might infer that the market is poised for a potential bullish move. It's important to monitor the situation closely and adjust our strategies accordingly based on further developments. Ultimately, the key to successful trading lies in staying adaptable and open to changing circumstances.
NSE:STYRENIX
by stocktechbot
7
Unveiling Crypto Market Insights: RSIHello, market enthusiasts! In previous post , we described a group of technical indicators - Oscillators, providing a solid foundation for today's discussion on RSI. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. Calculating RSI: RS = Average of x days' up closes / Average of x days' down closes RSI = 100 - (100/(1+RS)) Interpreting RSI: RSI is plotted on a vertical scale of 0 to 100. Movements below 30 are considered oversold, and movements above 70 are considered overbought. In trending markets, it is common to adjust the conditions to 80 and 20, respectively. In the book "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets," John J. Murphy describes the scenarios where RSI holds the greatest potential. "In my personal experience with the RSI oscillator, its greatest value lies in identifying failure swings or divergences that occur when the RSI is above 70 or below 30. Let's clarify another crucial point regarding the use of oscillators. In any strong trend, either up or down, an extreme oscillator reading typically appears sooner or later. In such cases, claims that a market is overbought or oversold are usually premature and can lead to an early exit from a profitable trend. In strong uptrends, overbought markets can remain overbought for an extended period. Just because the oscillator has moved into the upper region is not a sufficient reason to liquidate a long position (or, even worse, short into a strong uptrend)." Failure Swings: Failure swings can help us identify trading triggers. These occur when the RSI is above 70 or below 30. A top failure swing happens when the RSI (above 70) fails to exceed the previous peak in an uptrend, followed by a downside break of the previous trough. The opposite applies to a bottom failure swing. Now, let's shift our focus to the BTC/USD chart: Today, we are analyzing the price movements of BTC/USD on a 4-hour timeframe. The range marked with the blue lines represents last week's trading range. The current RSI value is approximately 75 (indicating overbought conditions), and the price has just broken the previous week's range high. Given the current price action, we should be vigilant for potential setups: If the price remains above the previous week's high and the RSI remains in the overbought area, we could watch for: a. A robust trend in which both price and RSI continue to ascend. b. The potential setup of a "top failure swing," which would occur if the price rises further, but the RSI fails to surpass the previous peak in an uptrend, followed by a downside break of the previous trough. Signaling to exhaustion of the trend. If the breakout turns out to be a false breakout or a fake-out : c. A retracement to the range low with the RSI in the oversold area. d. A breakout below the range low and a bottom failure swing. e. Sideways price action in the previous week's range. f. other For the purposes of this post, we've highlighted some of the setups we discussed theoretically in today's post. Keep in mind that each of these setups takes time to unfold. Additionally, note that in trending markets, claims that a market is overbought or oversold are typically premature and can result in an early exit from a profitable trend. Please let us know which option you find most likely. Additionally, share which method of using RSI has proven to be the most effective in your trading strategies.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Bitstamp
7
The predictable Jerome Powell..!Jerome Powell is likely to say the following in the upcoming conference on Wednesday, September 20th: * The Federal Reserve is committed to bringing inflation down to its 2% target. * The Fed is prepared to continue raising interest rates until inflation is under control. * The Fed is aware of the risks of a recession, but it believes that these risks are outweighed by the risks of high inflation. * The Fed is monitoring economic data closely and will adjust its monetary policy as needed. Powell may also discuss the following topics: * The Fed's plans to reduce the size of its balance sheet. * The impact of the war in Ukraine on the global economy. * The Fed's outlook for the US economy. "We expect economic growth to slow down below its average in the coming months, but we are important to avoid a recession." Here are some specific quotes from Powell's previous FOMC press conferences that he may repeat or echo in the upcoming conference: * "Inflation is running far too high, and we are strongly committed to bringing it back down to 2%." * "We will continue to raise interest rates until we are confident that inflation is on a sustainable downward path." * "We understand that high inflation is causing hardship for many Americans, and we are committed to doing everything we can to bring it down." * "We are monitoring economic data closely, and we will adjust our monetary policy as needed." * "We are committed to a smooth transition to a more neutral monetary policy stance." "The US job market remains strong, with low unemployment and high job openings." It is important to note that Powell's remarks at the upcoming FOMC conference will be based on the latest economic data and the FOMC's assessment of the risks and uncertainties facing the US economy. However, e market reaction to a possible FED pause is almost unpredictable!
NASDAQ:NDX
by Moshkelgosha
9
Where is the Euro Headed?Despite unprecedented rate hikes up to 450 basis points over the last 12 months the Euro has lost ground to the US Dollar for the last nine straight weeks. As a result, the Eurozone interest rates are historical highs. Currencies desire nothing more than higher rates. The Euro should have popped but instead it flopped after the ECB’s rate hiking decision last Thursday. That says something about the underlying economy and the expectations for interest rates ahead. This note puts forth data backed arguments that macroeconomic fundamentals in Europe is visibly weak. In sharp contrast, the robust economic fundamentals in the US provide strong tailwinds to the US dollar. Consequently, the Fed has great monetary manoeuvring space which will impose bearish pressure on the Euro. Having cranked up rates to a peak unseen before, the ECB’s hands are tied with little room for further hikes despite its hawkish tone. This paper posits a short position in CME Micro EUR/USD Futures expiring in Dec 2023. To seize opportunity from a weakening Euro, a short position with an entry at 1.071 combined with a target at 1.035 and hedged by a stop at 1.1025 will deliver an expected reward-to-risk ratio of 1.14x. MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION TAKES TIME Over the last year, the ECB has increased interest rates, an unprecedented ten times to combat surging inflation. That is a full 450 basis points. Yet inflation remains sticky and persistent. Why? One obvious reason is monetary policy transmission. Monetary policy transmission is the process through which a Central Bank’s monetary decisions impact the economy and the price levels. The mechanism is characterised by long, variable, and indefinite time lags. As a result, it is difficult to predict the precise timing of monetary policy actions on economy and inflation. DATAPOINTS SIGNAL WEAKENING ECONOMY Selected data from the minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of ECB Governing Council held in July points to growing weakness in Europe. 1. Yield Curve Inversion Deepening: Together with negative euro area data, the inversion has reignited recession concerns. For now, the Euro area’s equity & credit markets remain resilient, hoping for a soft landing. 2. Sharp Contraction in Euro Area: Euro Area Composite PMI has been declining since April 2023 and in July it has fallen below 50. The dynamics are consistent with a weak GDP performance for the second and third quarters of the year. Housing and business investments are estimated to have declined. 3. Shrinking Demand for Loans: The latest bank lending survey signals further tightening of credit standards and sharp drop in loan demand in Q2 across businesses and households. The reported demand for loans among corporations had fallen to an all-time low since the start of the survey in 2003 and, for the first time, was lower than at the height of the global financial crisis. 4. Growth could stall due to over correction: Growth could slow far more sharply if effects of monetary policy were more forceful than expected, or if the world economy weakens dampening demand for euro area exports. AFTER UNPRECEDENTED RATE HIKES, WHAT’S NEXT? As evident from weakening signals cited above, the ECBs hands are tied. ECB President Lagarde has little option other than maintaining a hawkish tone to manage expectations. When the ECB regroups again in December, the likelihood of rate hike is thin. Hawkish pause? Maybe. As Katie Martin writes in her weekly opinion piece for the Financial Times, “few truly believe the central bank really would raise rates further, especially while the region’s economy feels the strain from the tighter policy enacted so far and from the impact of weaker Chinese demand on German manufacturing.” ECB’s euro area growth forecasts are on the decline. The central bank expects 0.7% growth for this year (down from 0.9% as previously estimated). For 2024, the ECB now forecasts 1% growth (compared to 1.5% growth projected previously). Forecasting the future is hard. It is evident from a survey of economists (see chart below) conducted by Bloomberg earlier this month. The market expectations are for rates to stay flat at 4% for now with rate reductions from Q2 next year. When these expectations become consensus, Euro weakening will accelerate. DOLLAR CONTINUED STRENGTH AGAINST THE EURO The Euro has shed more than 5% against the greenback since mid-July. Shaky fundamentals and an elevated risk of recession have raised questions on ECB’s ability to continue hiking. Contrast this against the conditions in the US. The US economy has been marvellously resilient and set to have one of its best years yet. This backdrop emboldens the US Fed to take on an aggressive monetary posture. TRADE SET UP Interest rates at record elevated levels combined with weakening economy and feeble prospects, collectively pushes recession risks higher in the eurozone. This will corner the ECB into a pause or even cause it to hint at rate cuts during the December meeting. As a result, the Euro will be pressured lower against the US dollar. To ride on the opportunities from a weakening Euro, this paper posits a hypothetical short position in CME Micro EUR/USD Futures expiring in Dec 2023 (M6EZ2023) with an entry at 1.071 combined with a target at 1.035 and hedged by a stop at 1.1025, delivering an expected reward-to-risk ratio of 1.14x. Each lot of CME Micro Euro Futures contract provides exposure to 12,500 Euros. It is quoted in USD per Euro increment. Each pip i.e., 0.0001 per Euro delivers a P&L of USD 1.25. • Entry: 1.071 • Target: 1.035 • Stop: 1.1025 • Profit at Target (hypothetical): USD 450 ( = 0.036; 360 pips; 360 x 1.25 = 450) • Loss at Stop (hypothetical): USD 393.75 ( = -0.0315; -315 pips; -315 x 1.25 = -393.75) • Reward-to-Risk (hypothetical): 1.14x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:M6E1!Short
by mintdotfinance
8
Crude Oil versus Stock PricesDrops in crude oil have an impact on stocks in a positive way. The important point to remember is that falling crude oil prices have a lagged effect on the overall equity market. How long is that lag? It changes over time but it is approximately 6 months. When oil prices rise, it too has a lagged effect on the market by a variable amount of time. Of course, it depends on many factors, regulatory and global risks constantly change. I am not covering the risk of rising oil price with this chart, only reinforcing the positive impacts of falling oil prices. Oil prices are the most-watched price since we see them on gas station signs everywhere we drive and yet it doesn't have instant impact on the economy. Look at the history of the price of crude oil and the price of stocks. They are related as you can see when I plot the large drops in crude and the price level of stocks when that drop occurred. Tim 9/18/2023 10:19AM EST
FX:SPX500
by timwest
4
Big Citibank Opportunity Citibank Opportunity - NYSE:C Company Market Cap: $82.2 billion Share Price Today: $42.68 Dividend: 0.53c per quarter (Annual Dividend of c.$2.06) Annual Dividend Yield: 4.82% Next Earnings Report: Friday 13th October 2023 Citibank (Citigroup) is the 20th largest bank in the world & a member of Global Systemically Important Financial Institutions (G-SIFIs) meaning it has stricter prudential regulation such as higher capital requirements and extra surcharges and more stringent stress tests. under the scheme deposits can be 100% guaranteed in the event of a crisis, which is not the case for smaller banks that are not considered systemically important. This additional security can add weight to a longer term hold for Citibank combined with a good 4.82% dividend yield. Citibank has recently been in the headlines with negative news for completing a management re-org with substantial lay-offs. Whilst the news is interpreted as negative, the chart appears to reaching a point of exhaustion after 31 months of downward price pressure and a roughly 50% reduction in price from $81 down to $42. We may be forming a 3rd higher price cluster or price launch pad here at $42. Earnings release is in a 4 and half weeks on 13thOctober and after 13 quarters of positive earnings the trend is green. Its worth noting that upon earnings release, the price can capitulate or ascend aggressively (historically this has been the way), this is why it is important to be placing bids or positions well in advance of the release (now) and on the day of the release we should be nimble and on our toes to capitalize or reduce risk with stop losses. Obviously for long term position players this is not all that important, we have our long term target and stop loss on the chart. There is a long term trade opportunity with a stop loss at BASE 2 at $34.37. As you can see the trade has a Risk/Reward of 4:1. People who want to play it even safer could wait for a bounce off BASE 2 but for me a retracement this low could mean lower price momentum and a break of the RSI resistance. This is why I am inclined to take a position now off this base well in advance of the earnings release. This is not my typical style of trade however I could not pass up the chart given the mid-term 31 month 50% reduction and exhaustion in price combined with the higher bases on the longer term trajectory, and to be honest the negative news really got me the contrarian in me rustled. If you look hard enough you can see a potential long term ascending triangle forming out into the 5 year time horizon. As a cherry to the trade, the dividend yield is considerably high at 4.82% for a systemically important institution – to big to fail. In Summary - Citigroup is one of the top 20 banks in the world and is considered systemically important. - Citigroup share price has been declining 31 months with an approx. 50% reduction in price. - Three Price Bases establishing higher lows are reinforced by a rising RSI support line. - To fully take advantage of the earnings release on 13th October 2023 positions need to be placed now as the stock is extremely volatile on the day of release. - If the RSI support line fails to hold this could be a warning signal of a break down into STRONG SUPPORT ZONE (Red). - The dividend yield is considerably high at 4.82% for a systemically important institution offering a little incentive for a longer term hold.
NYSE:CLong
by PukaCharts
21
Oil Reserves Plummet to 40-year LowThe Biden Administration is treading on dangerous ground as it continues to deplete the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to levels not seen in decades, as geopolitical tensions flare and as global crude prices remain high. The chart above shows that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has declined to levels not seen since the early 1980s. The SPR is a tool used to alleviate the market impacts of both domestic and international disruptions, caused by among other things: weather, natural disasters, labor strikes, technical failures/accidents, or geopolitical conflicts. Source: U.S. Department of Energy. Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response. This image is in the public domain. Since the start of 2023, the SPR has drained by another 6.5% or 24 million barrels. Source: U.S. Department of Energy. Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response. This image is in the public domain. The SPR is comprised of 60 caverns, each one of which can fit the Willis Tower, one of the world's tallest skyscrapers. Source: U.S. Department of Energy. Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response. This image is in the public domain. The decision to withdraw crude oil from the SPR in the event of an energy emergency is made by the President under the authority of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) and done through competitive sale. Perhaps what is so remarkable is that over the past 2 years, the Biden Administration has released nearly 300 million barrels of crude oil from the SPR, concurrent with the Federal Reserve undertaking the most extreme pace of monetary tightening on record in its attempt to maintain price stability, and yet crude oil prices have barely subsided. In fact, in recent months, crude oil prices have surged, as shown in the chart below. The global crude benchmark, TVC:UKOIL has been on an upward trajectory in recent months, soaring nearly 30% since June. On the higher timeframe chart, we can see that crude oil prices show strong upward momentum. As soon as the Federal Reserve pivots back to monetary easing crude oil prices will likely resurge. A log-linear regression channel is applied to the quarterly (3-month) chart of NYSE:OXY Petroleum, showing the current bull rally could just be the first leg of a multi-year upward trend. The red line in the middle represents the mean price and each gray line represents one standard deviation from the mean. Perhaps the tendency of crude oil to rise in price over the coming years is why the Oracle of Omaha , Warren Buffet, began purchasing a large number of NYSE:OXY Petroleum shares in 2022, accumulating more than a 25% ownership stake in the company by mid-2023. Some financial experts are sounding the alarm about the SPR depletion. The founder of The Bear Traps Report , Larry McDonald, has indicated that the drastic decline in U.S. oil stockpiles, a critical asset in times of conflict, undermines America's energy security. McDonald is warning that diminishing domestic oil reserves heighten America's dependence on imports, potentially exposing the nation to severe supply disruptions and extreme price volatility in the international oil market. Each time the price of crude oil subsides, petroleum exporting countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, cut production to keep prices higher for longer. To some, it may seem that these production cuts are a gray zone tactic meant to deplete an adversary of its strategic oil reserves before engaging them in a conflict. There is also collateral damage occurring to the U.S. dollar. The petrodollar system, which emerged in the 1970s when the U.S. abandoned the last vestiges of its gold standard, was a series of agreements between the U.S. and petroleum exporting countries to use the U.S. dollar for cross-border oil transactions. Since almost every country needed to import or export some amount of petroleum, the petrodollar system was a means of ensuring a perpetual global demand for U.S. dollars despite the currency not being redeemable at the Federal Reserve for anything of value. As crude oil prices continue to surge, despite the Federal Reserve tightening monetary conditions at the fastest pace on record, a crisis is unfolding for developing countries that lack access to dollars. These countries are on the precipice of hyperinflation. In essence, by tightening the supply of dollars the Federal Reserve is exporting inflation abroad, especially to those that lack easy access to dollars. Consequently, countries at the periphery of the dollar access hierarchy are being incentivized, now more than ever, to turn to alternative currencies, thereby accelerating de-dollarization. As oil prices continue their relentless march upward, the scenario continues to exacerbate inflationary pressures in the U.S., and even more so, abroad. Higher prices could compel the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for much longer than anticipated, even in the face of deteriorating economic conditions and rising unemployment, resulting in stagflation. Exacerbating the situation further are global climate change policy objectives, which act as a disincentive for countries to increase domestic oil production. If a major geopolitical conflict occurs when petroleum reserves are depleted and production is constrained, the outcome could result in severe stagflation, as prices spiral higher even though economic growth stagnates in the face of a fragmenting world. * * * Important Disclaimer Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
ECONOMICS:USCOSPRE
by SpyMasterTrades
49
The Cash BubbleHistory repeats itself, and we should learn from it, however sometimes history is so far away that it spans generations before we're able to grasp the experience first hand. We hear about 1929, but we can't imagine what it was to survive the struggle, we hear about the pandemics during the 20's, same deal, we have heard about recessions, and those who went through the big recession of 2008 triggered by the immobiliary crisis know better, some veterans from the dot com bubble, others from the Black monday in 87, and probably very few from earlier crisis. But I don't think anybody has gone through a halt in the economy due to a pandemic at the level we witnessed in 2020. Let's put it in context, 2020 was an election year, the incumbent government was losing the battle against the pandemic and the halt in the economy. He had the support of the congress and the wallet at his will, the former President Trump flooded the market with freshly printed dollars in an attempt to reignite the economy as soon as possible, and let's say, it worked for the purpose of reactivating the economy and not having to wait for a painful period of a lengthy recovery, however this created an unprecedented scenario, a huge flood of dollars to the market. The biggest cash inflow ever in the history of the world. The M1 metric went to $7.2T, to put it in perspective, since the 60's this has been oscillating in the $480B to $580B in the 70's when Nixon cancelled the convertibility of the Gold and Paul Volcker had to apply unprecedented meassures to fight the stagflation that followed after the dollar became fiat currency. The M1 increased 120% from its 60's level, the increase after the housing bubble burst went from $668B to $1.5T, approximately 225%. After the COVID halt it went from $1.5T to $7.25 T, an increase of 485%, inedit scenario in the history of the United States. The crisis sent the price of oil in the market of futures to a negative value, something that has never been seen, the unemployment reached record levels, the SP500 index fell to a range close to that when Trump became president, wiping off the rally that started shortly after that event, the inflation didn't react immediately, since this is a lagging indicator that reacts to the economy growth, and the access to currency. The amount of printed fiat currency flooding the market created the immediate wanted effect, the economy jumpstart that put everybody to work and reignited the economic machinery, the unemployment started to go down, the inflation ticked up, still within range, the price of gold ticked up, the price of oil started to recover, also within range. However we witnessed shortly after that the inflation was not stabilizing, we witnessed the traffic jam at the ports of entry to the United States, lines and lines of cargo ships waiting to unload at the ports of entry, stuck there just idling. The news blamed the Evergreen ship that blocked the Suez Canal, and affected the distribution lines, but the truth was an excessive demand of products from the Pacific producers that overwhelmed the existing port infrastructure. This was the root reason that affected the production lines in the US and contributed to a galloping inflation. Also, during the recovery cycle, let's remember that one commodity in high demand is oil, since the world moves on it. We saw unprecedented gas prices at the pump. Presidents don't have the power to increase or decrease the prices of gas, that is pure supply/demand, but they can be blamed for increases or take the credit for decreases. In a high demand environment, oil goes along the demand cycle, that is why in a recovery environment the oil prices go higher. Let's remember in the 70's during the stagflation period oil was a highly valued commodity and people were making large lines to load gas. The prices were upticking fast and the media blamed the arab world for it, but it was mere propaganda, what really happened it was just an economy running freely on cash and jacking up the prices. The Trump administration was at the peak of the economic cycle that started in 2009, with low inflation, full employment, low gas prices. After the pandemic the variables changed, the economy went to a sudden halt world wide, and in a desperate attempt to keep the presidency the administration authorized the humongous cash flow in an attempt to prevent the negative effects of the economy to affect the election. At the end Trump lost the election. The economy continued its extremely fast paced recovery path and it overshoot. The Fed chairman was purposely in "Denial" regarding inflation, neglecting it and calling it "transitory", which was more of a Greenspan "laissez faire" economic policy, let the wild animals in their "irrational exuberance" take over and later on we'll pick up the pieces and start the recovery process. This is how we got here now. Where do we go from here?, that is an interesting question, the flood of cash should have been made in a way that there was a recovery but not a rampant inflation, however this would have taken longer and the previous administration was not willing to wait. We have an amount of cash that the economy hasn't been able to absorb. Money is supported basically by the productivity, the working force, the commercial transactions, but there must be a correspondence so the economic variables are kept in check. The GDP vs the M1 is still at an outstanding level. The inflation is heading to the 2-2.5% goal, we're still at full employment, which basically puts us in what the fed have been calling a "soft landing". Will it be?? I suppose initially it will, but we risk facing the same scenario that happened during the stagflation in the 70's, Paul Volcker had a big dilemma, he increased the interest rates, but the inflation was completely out of control, people noticed they could buy an asset and basically turn around and sell it at a higher price, and they still found a buyer. Houses were on the rise, the agriculture also participated of the inflation benefits, farmers could buy a tractor, use it and resell it at a higher price. People in New York City were waiting in line before the jewelries opened so they could buy gold, and sell it later at a higher price. When Volcker decreased the interest rates after the message he sent was of stability and it backfired and inflation was reignited. Taking a look at the CBOE:SPX in the long run, we see there is a negative momentum divergence forming after it reached the All Time High (ATH). The indicators signal a downturn, that could possibly happen after the interest rates reach its pivot, the inflation is at the Fed Goals, unemployment goes beyond the full employment level and the economy shows signs of stalling. Bubbles happen all the time, we enjoy the ride until they burst. We're in a new bubble, the Cash Bubble. The cash should be enough to allow the economy to support it having a healthy inflation level of 2%, as defined by the Fed targets. If there is too much cash and the economy is not able to support it, it will dilute automatically until the economy growth catches up. For decades the ratio of M1 to GDP has been between 9% and 18% as we can see in the chart. After the cash flood it peaked to 85% and currently it is at 68%. I don't think the problem is far from over, even if we reach the 2% inflation target. The challenge for the Fed now is to keep the interest rates low for longer without stalling the economy. It is rumored that the Fed will pause the interest rate hike for their September FOMC meeting. It is expected considering the recent increases have been in the 1/4 of a point followed by a pause. If the pause is prolonged, the inflation reaches its 2-2.5% target and the unemployment is kept within the 4-5% range then the fed can call it a "Soft Landing" up to this point which could be a telegraphed signal to start reducing the interest rates, and the financial market may anticipate this pivot to create a bear market and shake the tree to dislocate and reallocate assets at a discount using all the big cash flood out there. Next year is a presidential election year, and not making it a priority has happened before. During the Volcker's period, he didn't mind pulling the rug on Carter. The Fed does what it has to do. "What has happened before will happen again. What has been done before will be done again. There is nothing new in the whole world." ~ Ecclesiastes 1:9 Patterns repeat because human nature hasn't changed for thousands of years. ~ Jesse Livermore. References Secrets of the Temple: How the Federal Reserve Runs the Country. William Greider. January, 1989 How the economic machinery works. by Ray Dalio. youtu.be Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio. youtu.be
SP:SPX
by Madrid
55
Natural Gas from Pipelines to PortfoliosNatural gas was once considered a byproduct of oil production. It is now becoming increasingly important as one of the cleanest burning fossil fuels and a key piece of the clean energy transition. Today, it forms the backbone of global energy production. This paper delves into the supply and demand factors affecting natural gas prices and proposes a long position in Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures (NG1!) to harness gains from seasonal price trends with an entry of 2.484 with a target of 3.099 and a stop loss at 2.172 delivering risk/reward ratio of 2x. Natural Gas Supply and Demand Supply Largest producers and exporters of Natural Gas are US, Russia, Iran, China, Canada, Qatar, Australia, Norway, and Saudi Arabia. The standout in the list is Russia. Following the conflict in Ukraine, gas exports from Russia plummeted 58% in 2022. This led to price shocks in EU natural gas (TTF). US supply is unable to adequately bridge this deficit as transporting natural gas using ships requires converting it to Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) and using special refrigerated vessels which is not economical for large quantities of natural gas. This is also why the spread between EU and US natural gas is much wider than EU and US oil. Notably, US shale reserves have a high concentration of natural gas. Along with newly developed fracking techniques, this has led to increasing gas production in the US. Moreover, natural gas is also obtained in the process of oil extraction, which means gas production is linked to oil production. This has interesting ramifications when looking at present supply. Despite low natural gas prices over the past few months, production in the US has remained high as a result of high oil production. Similarly, higher prices do not readily translate to higher production. This suggests that Natural Gas price-supply relationship is inelastic. Demand Demand for Natural Gas comes from: • Energy Production – Natural Gas is used in power plants to generate electricity. Natural Gas electricity production has been rising over the last decade as it replaces Coal. Notably, manufacturers using natural gas as an energy source can switch to other energy sources during price spike, which provides some elasticity to demand. • Commercial and Residential Heating – Natural Gas is used for heating homes in winter. This can lead to a seasonal demand during winter months in the Northern Hemisphere. • Industrial Use – Natural Gas is used as a raw material for industrial products such as plastics, ammonia, and methanol. Natural gas demand is heavily affected by weather. Unusually warm summers in the Northern Hemisphere drive higher energy usage from air conditioners while colder winters drive higher demand for heating. Inventories Gas can be injected into storage facilities and stored for later use. These inventory levels play a major role in balancing supply-demand. Summer months (April-October) are referred to as injection periods while winter months (November-March) are withdrawal periods. Inventory levels help even out the surge in winter demand. However, natural gas is much harder to store than oil as it is less dense. This means the inventory effect is not as apparent which explains the larger seasonal variation in natural gas prices as compared to oil prices. Seasonality in Natural Gas Prices Seasonal price action of Natural Gas shows two distinct price rallies. A large rally during winter in the US and EU driven by surge in supply for heating in winters, during this period, prices peak in early-December before declining. The other, smaller spike is during summers in the US and EU when demand for electricity rises, during this period, prices peak in early-June before declining. Further, prices show the highest deviation from the seasonal trend in late-September. Over the past five years, the winter rally has become wider, with prices staying elevated from August to early-December. Additionally, seasonal trend points to a price appreciation of +11% between September and December. However, investors should note that past seasonal trends are not representative of current or future market performance. Henry Hub Futures Henry Hub is the most prominent gas trading hub in the world. It is located at the intersection of major on-shore and off-shore production regions and connected by an extensive pipeline network. This is also where US natural gas exports are dispatched. CME’s benchmark Natural Gas futures (NG) deliver to Henry Hub and is the largest gas futures contract in the world. Other notable Natural Gas futures contracts are TTF (EU) and JKM (Asia). Futures from both regions are also available for trading on CME. Asset Managers are Bullish Commercial traders are heavily net short on Natural Gas futures, short positioning in July was at its highest level since 2021 but has since reduced. Overall, net short commercial positioning points to bullish sentiment. Asset managers have switched positioning in Natural Gas futures from net short to net long since May. Last week net long positioning reached its highest level since May 2022. Options markets OI points to a neutral market view on natural gas with Put/Call ratio close to 1. Options P/C has stayed close to 1 for the past 3 months. At the same time, Implied Volatility on Natural Gas options has been rising in August. A rally last week failed to break past a key support level but vols remain elevated suggesting that price may retest that level again. Henry Hub Gas Dynamics with European Gas Last week, EU Natural Gas futures (TTF1!) spiked by almost 28% due to a strike at Australia’s second largest LNG plant, still the rally soon retraced almost entirely. LNG supply disruption, especially at the key transition to the winter season can lead to volatility spikes. Though, EU gas inventories are 90% full, supply disruptions like this can still have a major effect on gas prices but especially on volatility. Over the past few years, higher flexibility and capacity in the global LNG supply chain has led to the various global natural gas benchmarks tracking each other more closely. This means that Henry Hub natural gas futures are exposed not just to US and Canada Natural Gas production but also to disruptions in global supply. However, the effect is comparatively limited due to ample supply in the US. This can be seen in the price action of Henry Hub natural gas futures which rose by 6% on the same day. Recent Trend in Natural Gas Inventories As per the EIA, Natural Gas supply fell 0.1% WoW last week. At the same time demand rose by 0.3% WoW. Note that working natural gas in underground storage has started to flatten over the past 4 weeks, rising by just 94 billion cubic feet (BCf) compared to the 5Y average increase of 140 BCf during the same period. Still, inventory levels are close to the top of their 5-year maximum, elevated by high US gas production during the summer driven by higher oil production. EIA forecasts that the depletion season will end with inventories 7% higher than their 5-year average. EIA expects production to remain flat for the remainder of the year, so watching weekly consumption reports could point to early indicators of seasonal inventory depletion. However, due to elevated inventory levels, the seasonal effect may not be as strong as prior years. In a longer-term trend, gas rigs in the US have started to decline this year after surging over the past year. This will likely lead to lower production over the next year. Trade Setup With options markets pointing bullish and seasonal trends suggesting price appreciation during this period, a long position in Natural Gas futures expiring in October (NGV) allows investors to benefit from an increase in Natural Gas prices. Each contract of CME Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures provide exposure to 10,000 MMBtu of Natural Gas while the October contract has maintenance margin of USD 5,070 for a long position. A USD 0.001 MMBtu change in quoted price per MMBtu leads to a PnL change of USD 10 in one Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures. Entry: 2.484 Target: 3.099 Stop Loss: 2.172 Profit at Target: USD 6,150 Loss at Stop: USD 3,120 Reward/Risk: 2x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by mintdotfinance
17
Are Chips Losing Their Edge to Software Stocks?Semiconductor stocks have surged this year, thanks in large part to NASDAQ:NVDA Nvidia. But they could be losing relative strength to software makers within the technology sector. Today’s main chart focuses on the NASDAQ:SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF, which closely tracks the NASDAQ:SOX Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. It recently slipped below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which may signal weakness over the intermediate term. The lower study shows its relative strength versus the NASDAQ:NDX Nasdaq-100. Notice how it’s mostly lagged the broader index since late June. Next, consider the same chart and studies for the AMEX:IGV iShares Software ETF. It’s shown the opposite patterns. Price is above the 50-day SMA and relative strength against the Nasdaq-100 has recently improved. The last chart compares these two ETFs as a ratio (IGV/SMH). It uses monthly candles to provide a long-term view. Software could be turning up from a 17-year low, which may also suggest relative strength is shifting between these two major groups within the key technology sector. Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above: VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): 1-year: +45.61% 5-years: +186.80% 10-years: +741.25% iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF (IGV): 1-year: +28% 5-years: +79.25% 10-years: +390.50% (As of August 31, 2023) Performance data shown reflects past performance and is no guarantee of future performance. The information provided is not meant to predict or project the performance of a specific investment or investment strategy and current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data shown. Accordingly, this information should not be relied upon when making an investment decision. Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NASDAQ:SMH
by TradeStation
4
Soft Landing?A lot of market participants are falling for the Fed's illusion that a soft landing has been achieved. However, the charts are still warning that a recession is coming. The chart below shows the extreme degree of inversion between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill. The current inversion is the worst in over 40 years. A yield curve inversion reduces bank lending for various reasons, one of which is the removal of the incentive for banks to borrow at lower short-term rates and lend at higher long-term rates. Since bank credit is how most money comes into creation, a yield curve inversion is, therefore, a sign that monetary conditions are deteriorating. Indeed, manipulating the interest rate is how the central bank controls the money supply and induces a recession. The impact of rate hikes always occurs on a lagging basis. The lag can last anywhere from several quarters to several years. As the infographic below shows, an economic recession will likely begin in the U.S. between Q4 2023 and Q4 2024. The warning signs of the coming liquidity crisis are everywhere. In a prior post (shown below), @SquishTrade and I pointed out that a major disparity between the volatility of bond prices and the volatility of equity prices is occurring. This extreme disparity could be a warning that much greater volatility for equity markets has yet to come. Even for stocks that have experienced a strong rally in 2023, the basis of their surge is largely unsupported by dollar liquidity levels. In the chart below, the price of NASDAQ:NVDA is compared against the dollar liquidity index. This is further confirmed by the below chart, which shows how extreme the price of NASDAQ:NVDA as a ratio to the price of a risk-free 10-year Treasury bond has become. Never before have investors been willing to pay so high of a risk premium to hold Nvidia's stock. While anything is possible, the charts suggest that there isn't enough money in the economy to support the payment of debt at current yields. The below chart shows the price of long-term government Treasurys (adjusted for interest payments) as a ratio to the M2 money supply. There is simply not enough money in the M2 money stock for market participants to be able to pay all newly issued debt at the current high rates. When the liquidity issues begin to mount, the Fed will quickly pivot back to new money creation, as it did in March 2023 when it abruptly created the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), which is the latest of the many tools that the Fed uses to create new money. However, when the economy begins to slow, this time around central banks will get trapped because of commodity price inflation. Although commodity prices are generally disinflating at the present time, this slow disinflation is merely forming a bull flag on the higher timeframes. With unemployment also bull flagging on the higher timeframes, when commodity prices and unemployment concurrently break out, the result will definitionally be stagflation. Important Disclaimer Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
FRED:T10Y3M
by SpyMasterTrades
89
Yen Rises Sharply after Hawkish Government Announcements USD/JPY Analysis: Yen Rises Sharply after Hawkish Government Announcements Since 2016, the interest rate in Japan has been in the negative zone and has remained unchanged — for more than 7 years it has been -0.10%. This makes Japan fundamentally different from other countries. But over the weekend the Yomiuri newspaper published an interview with Bank of Japan CEO Kazuo Ueda. He said the central bank could end the era of negative interest rates once it becomes clear that the 2% inflation target has been achieved. Suppose these words may not be a declaration of intentions that will become reality, but just a verbal intervention aimed at supporting the yen. One way or another, the USD/JPY chart clearly shows signs of a change in sentiment: → last week, the bulls put pressure on the upper boundary of the ascending channel (shown in blue), increasing the likelihood of reaching the psychological level of 150 yen per US dollar; → last week’s close was near the high, but the current week began with a bearish gap, after which the yen weakened by 0.8% within just a few hours; → level 146.66, which served as support last week, now appears to be offering resistance. A similar action can be expected from the level of 147 yen per US dollar. In the near future, the price may realize a scenario where it reaches important support from the median line of the ascending channel with a subsequent rebound from it. If this rebound does form, but it is no more than 50% of the unfolding decline, then we will have more arguments that bears are taking more control in the USD/JPY market amid government announcements. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
5
A Traders’ Playbook: The agile trader wins this week Trading Overview We head into the new trading week with the USD index (DXY) closing higher for the 8th straight week, a fate we haven’t seen in some 18 years – it's little surprise that retail traders are countering that move, accruing a solid net short position. EURUSD has closed lower by the same duration, and that makes a fitting backdrop for the two headline catalysts this week: the September ECB meeting, and the US CPI print. Further afield, the CLP (Chilean Peso), PLN (Polish Zloty) and MXN were the weakest currencies in FX markets last week (all offered by Pepperstone). USDMXN has seen increased attention from traders, and we’ve seen exhaustion in the buying in USDMXN after 6 straight days higher. I am a buyer of weakness. AUDUSD fell 1.2% last week and remains a liquid proxy of China, but again, after a strong move to below 0.6400 we see that the sellers are feeling fatigued – consolidation can be a good thing, even for those whose strategies work their edge in more linear moves. China’s CPI/PPI, released on Saturday (coming in at 0.1% and -3% respectively), shouldn’t worry markets to any great degree. US and Brent Crude gets close attention, with OPEC+ determined to tighten supply crude. After the run price is factoring in a lot of positive factors, however, a daily close above $88 (in SpotCrude) would greatly accelerate the prospect of $100 coming into play, with BrentCrude likely to get there first. I’m not sure risk assets will appreciate further upside in energy prices, and I consider a scenario where we see further gains in crude, married with an above consensus US core CPI print. One suspects if that scenario we’re to play out we could see increased angst, and higher vol. While the VIX index has moved below 14% and S&P500 20-day realised vol is turning lower again, it is still a big week for equity – after a small pullback, we question if the US500 is ready to make a tilt at strong support at 4330 or find a more positive tone? This week we manage risk, consider our exposures and positions over key event risk/news and model potential movement against the account balance. Stop placement is key, where understanding the degree of risk taken on will only serve you well. Good luck. The marquee event risks for the week ahead: ECB meeting (Thursday 22:15 AEST) – A hawkish pause? The ECB meeting is a significant risk event for EUR FX / EU equity traders and one that could result in a sizeable bout in cross-asset volatility. EU swaps price 9bp of hikes (a 38% chance of a hike), and 18bp of hikes cumulative to the peak rate (in December) and this could play a key factor in the reaction of the EUR. We see 26/49 economists see the ECB leaving rates unchanged, highlighting just how split the view is out there. Positioning in the EUR is held very short by leveraged insto funds, while retail has positioned exposures for a counter move and a bounce in EURUSD. Given pricing and positioning, we should see a more pronounced rally in the EUR on a 25bp hike, than a fall if we see rates kept unchanged, at least to the initial reaction to the rates call. Rate hike (or not) aside, ECB guidance, new economic projections and debate around PEPP reinvestments could result in vicious intraday reversals playing out, so trading over news – if that is your tipple - will be a challenge and it pays to be nimble. US CPI (Wed 22:30 AEST) – The outcome of the CPI report could significantly shape expectations for the November FOMC meeting, where the market is currently pricing a balanced 12bp of hikes. The market eyes US headline CPI at 0.6% MoM/3.6% YoY and core CPI at 0.2% MoM/4.3% YoY. By way of market pricing, the CPI ‘fixings’ market (market pricing for the CPI print) is pricing headline CPI at 3.64%, while alternatively, the Cleveland Fed inflation Nowcast model sees US headline CPI headline inflation higher at 3.8% and core CPI at 4.46%, offering modest upside risk to the economist’s consensus call. The form guide has favoured short USD positions, where the USD index (DXY) has dropped in the 30 minutes after each of the past 6 CPI reports. This time could be different given USD positioning. I am biased for USDJPY to push above 148, with current underlying momentum favouring longs. US PPI inflation (Thursday 22:30 AEST) – Overshadowed by the US CPI report and the ECB meeting (15 minutes earlier), US PPI is expected to print 0.4% MoM / 1.3% YoY. If the PPI print proves to be a big beat/miss to consensus it could make trading through this period even more problematic. US retail sales (Thursday 22:30 AEST) – The market eyes sales of +0.1% for August, while the ‘control’ group – the sales element that feeds more directly into the GDP calculation – is expected to fall 0.1%. The market picks and chooses when to run with this data point, so I suspect it could be a vol event only should we see a sizeable beat/miss to expectations. UK jobs and wages report (Tuesday 16:00 AEST) – The swaps market prices 19bp of hikes for the 21 Sept BoE meeting, with peak bank rate expectations at 5.56% by Feb 2024. The UK jobs/wages report could influence that pricing, with the consensus expecting the unemployment rate eyed at 4.3% (from 4.2%) and wages unchanged at 7.8%. GBPUSD eyes the 200-day MA (1.2427), and a level for the scalpers. Leveraged funds are now short GBP, while the slower-moving real money is still holding a punchy net long GBP position. BoE speakers – Chief economist Huw Pill speaks (Monday 18:00 AEST) and External member Catherine Mann speaks the day after (Tuesday 09:00 AEST). The market is certainly warming to a one-more-and-done approach from the BoE and GBP has taken notice. China high-frequency data (Friday 12:00 AEST) – We watch for Industrial production (consensus 3.9% vs. 3.7% July), fixed asset investment (3.3% from 3.4%), and retail sales (3% vs. 2.5% July) – so some improvement is expected in this data flow. China equity could be sensitive to this growth data, although on current trends CHINAH is favoured into 6000. USDCNH also pushing to new cycle highs, and I stay bullish this cross. PBOC decision on the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF - Friday 11:20 AEST) – Only one economist (of 11 surveyed by Bloomberg) is calling for a cut to the MLF facility, with the strong consensus that it is too soon after the recent policy easing to see more. USDCNH is still a favoured long exposure. Australia employment report (Thursday 11:30 AEST) – The consensus calls for 25.5k jobs created in August. The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.7%, although that could be influenced by the participation rate, which is expected to remain at 66.7%. I can’t see this data point affecting expectations of RBA policy too intently, with the market staunchly of the view that the RBA are on an extended pause. AUDUSD - Tactically, favour placing limit orders and to fade intraday extremes, as the initial move shouldn’t stick. Apple ‘Wonderlust’ event (Tuesday) – The market is looking more closely at the news flow around China’s proposed iPhone curbs, and how that plays into expected revenue. ‘Wonderlust’ is likely more of an event for the tech heads, with the new iPhone 15 due to be unveiled – I see no statistical pattern, or price trends, through prior product launches to offer any bias on how the tech giant could trade.
PEPPERSTONE:USDXLong
by Pepperstone
7
Bitcoin (BTC) -> Bullish Cycle ComingMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️ I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise. This is how you build real long term wealth! In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Bitcoin. Looking at the chart of Bitcoin you can see that just 8 months ago Bitcoin perfectly retested the previous cycle high of 2018 at the $18.000 level and rejected towards the upside. I think that the whole crypto market but especially Bitcoin is ready for a new bullish cycle and after another short term drop on Bitcoin I do expect a longer term bullish continuation. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy. Keep the long term vision🫡
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by basictradingtv
115