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Who are PineCoders?People often ask us who PineCoders are. Simply put, we are a group of Pine programmers who aim to contribute to the TradingView ecosystem. Many of the Pine Wizards are PineCoders, yet many PineCoders are not Wizards. We are a relatively small group of just about 40. Our group of programmers contributes to the ever-growing community in many ways. Some may create script publications for users to benefit from, while other members are Pine experts contributing in different, often anonymous, ways. We don't publish a list of PineCoders members because many are happy avoiding the limelight; they do what they do for the love of Pine and our community. PineCoders strive to represent, in a balanced way, the interests of Pine programmers, script publishers and vendors, and the traders who use scripts on TradingView. Oh, and we have lots of fun together. █  WHAT DO PINECODERS DO? Many of you recognize us as the script moderators who operate this account. However, script moderation is only one manifestation of our activities. In the Pine realm, we also:  • Help maintain and evolve the Script Publishing Rules and Vendor Requirements .  • Answer questions in the Q&A forums we support: the Q&A chat on TradingView, the Telegram Q&A group , and Stack Overflow .  • Moderate the Telegram Q&A group and the Q&A chat on TradingView.  • Manage the private spaces where our top programmers share and help improve Pine.  • Design solutions to improve the Pine-related aspects of TradingView.  • Help define Pine-related development priorities.  • Tally suggestions for improvement from Pine users.  • Answer Pine-related support tickets.  • Test new features and changes to Pine.  • Report bugs.  • Publish content from the PineCoders and TradingView accounts.  • Publish a monthly script in TASC and from the PineCodersTASC account.  • Publish Pine-related news in our broadcast channels.  • Select and support our Trusted Pine Programmers for Hire .  • Select the Editors' Picks for Community Scripts .  • Select the yearly Pine Wizards nominees.  • Organize Pinefests , the Pine programming contests .  • Collaborate on the technical documentation of Pine. █  HOW ARE PINECODERS CHOSEN? Any member of PineCoders can propose a candidacy. When our management team approves it, they submit the nomination to our members to cast their votes. If the majority of our group agrees, we send an invitation to the user. We select people who are agile in Pine and interested in contributing to our ever-growing community. We keep our group relatively small but diverse, as we believe it fosters a dynamic conducive to productive exchanges and efficient decision making. █  WHAT'S YOUR RELATIONSHIP WITH TRADINGVIEW? A handful of users launched PineCoders in 2019 with the support of a TradingView co-founder who recognized the potential of uniting power users with good ideas to improve Pine. The official support from this visionary and our daily collaboration with key TradingView teams are some of the main reasons we can successfully realize our projects. We founded PineCoders as a volunteer group, and to this day, the vast majority of PineCoders activities are made possible because of volunteer contributions. As our projects evolved and some work required a few of us to commit to internal TradingView activities, those few also added contract work for TradingView to their volunteer activities within PineCoders. █  WE ARE NOT ALONE Our group does not hold a monopoly on good deeds. Many other Pine programmers also contribute to the strength and liveliness of our unique community. With TradingView being so popular, a constant influx of newcomers to Pine want to learn how to enhance their trading practice by programming indicators and strategies. It would be impossible for PineCoders to support them alone, and it's comforting to see that even today, some people still find purpose in volunteering their time and knowledge to help others. Thank you to all those who help our fantastic community in one way or another.
NASDAQ:SSP
by PineCoders
30
Cryptographic Truth Final Run (Chainlink) (Re-Upload)The fractal continues to play out like the last Chainlink Cycle. I started to see a bump and run pattern forming, so I went back to 2019 where we are now in the fractal, and we find the same pattern: a textbook bump and run pattern. There is now a very high chance that we will reverse from this point; we just completed the throwback with a double bottom candle pattern. My position is still open from 14.6 and being added to the long position under 14. At the moment, LINK is consolidating under the 1/1 Gann Fan, as you can see below. According to the fractal, we don't get the real break till the 1st of December; it might look something like this. The condition for this theory on the fractal playing out being invalidated is if Chainlink loses this lower high structure and breaks this red support trendline.
COINBASE:LINKUSDLong
by Sporia
89
Business Cycle Rotation Part 3Last year I produced several posts that described an exercise that utilizes long term momentum changes between asset classes and the relationship among asset classes to anticipate the business cycle. That series and parts 1 and 2 of this series are linked below. Parts one and two of the series described the general methodology, presented the matrix with the raw data and showed the process used to consolidate the raw data and begin to draw conclusions around the economy's position in the current business cycle. Before I plot the distilled sectors onto a stylized business/market cycle overlay, I plot equities, rates and commodities onto an overlay with the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) for the United States. CLI readings above 100 (dashed red line) suggest economic expansion to come while below the 100 line suggests weakness, and perhaps recession to come. The index is currently below 100 but rising toward the 100 line. So still weakening but at a much slower pace. To help visualize the cycle I plot 10 year rates (inverted), SPX and the Thompson Core CRB index along with the CLI. Viewed in the manner the cycle that began with the bond top appears to be consistent in terms of sequencing. Rates topped, economy (CLI) topped, followed by equities and finally commodities top as the CLI enters the economic contraction phase. Fast forward to todays configuration. In this perspective, despite the sharp rally in early November, while there is room for a cyclic rally, there is no sign of a lasting bond bottom (see next chart). Commodities, while off their lows don't appear to be suggesting a new leg up in the cycle (but may be moving that way). I think of rates as the first mover in the cycle. To believe that the cycle has turned virtuous I like to see ten year rates make a solid top. The ten year note monthly chart has broken above the multi decade downtrend and above the 3.25% pivot. While a bit overbought in terms of momentum and a small RSI divergence is showing up, the structure from the 2020 low is completely intact. Until I see solid signs of a monthly perspective yield top in the two year and ten year, it will be difficult for me to label this as the kind of high that would lead a change in the economic cycle. The distilled sectors are placed onto stylized market and economic cycle sine curves. If markets (dark blue curve) are correctly anticipating the business cycle (grey curve) the business cycle is somewhere past peak, and should be expected to steadily deteriorate over coming quarters. In part 5 we will examine the totality of the evidence and draw conclusions around the current cycle and what it implies for 2024. And finally, many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Taylor Financial Communications Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
FRED:USALOLITONOSTSAM
by CMT_Association
9
The 2023 Broker Awards: Vote Now! It's our duty as a trading community to support each other, no matter our backgrounds or experience levels. Our annual Broker Awards help traders find the perfect broker for their trading needs. The awards are entirely based on verified reviews from real traders, like you. The best part? Your votes decide the winning brokers. That's right, real reviews and real connections, all from real traders. Be sure to connect to your favorite broker and write your first verified review, if you haven't already. That single vote could push your broker to the top of the list. No vote is too small. Get involved, traders! To learn more about our 2023 Broker Awards check out the the links below. We've got explainers, details, and more for everyone: 1. Our 2023 Broker Awards season is officially open: tradingview.com 2. Visit the 2023 Broker Awards page here: tradingview.com 3. Connect, review and read about all the brokers on our platform: tradingview.com The TradingView Broker Awards are where the world's best compete to show off their brokering capabilities on an international stage. May the best brokers win.
SPARKS:BROKERS
by TradingView
16
Flight Boarding - Grand Theft Auto 6Hey fellow gamers and number-crunchers, gather 'round! 🎮 Big news alert: Rockstar Games is dropping the first trailer for Grand Theft Auto 6 on December 5, 2023! twitter.com Now, for those who live and breathe gaming, no further explanation needed. But hey, to the data lovers and boomers in the house, let me break it down for you. Rockstar is the genius behind hits like Grand Theft Auto, Red Dead Redemption, Bully, and La Noire. Flashback to 2013 when they unleashed Grand Theft Auto 5, which turned out to be the best-selling console/PC-only game EVER. Talk about a gaming legend! Fast forward to now, and GTA 5 has racked up a mind-blowing 185 million units in sales by August 2023. That's across three console generations and PC, making it the cash cow of the entertainment world. Hold on to your controllers because Grand Theft Auto 6 is gearing up for launch, and the prediction is a whopping $1 billion in sales from the get-go! 🤑 Experts are betting on at least 25 million copies flying off the shelves on release day. For the financial gurus out there, I've got the deets on TTWO Rockstar Games history prices in my previous analysis. And if you're eyeing the market, the sweet spot for entering the trade seems to be at that red horizontal line at 146 - 150. But here's the cherry on top: I believe we're aiming for a new all-time high beyond 210! 🚀 So, who's ready for the next gaming revolution? 🌟 Share your thoughts below and let the positive vibes flow! 🚀🎉
NASDAQ:TTWOLong
by GoldCartel
37
A Traders’ Weekly Playbook – timing the turn We roll into December and many hoping to take a couple of weeks off over the festive season may be reconsidering that call – such is the opportunity cost. Whether one is looking at equities, the USD, gold, or bonds/rates it's all a big momentum play. In equity land, the US30 is where the big moves are playing out, with the index in beast mode and a mere 1.9% away from its all-time highs. The S&P500 also closed higher for a fifth consecutive week and our US500 index now eyes a test of the 27 July high of 4611, where price action throughout last week suggests further juice in the rally is still possible. What concerns me is that these markets are rich in positioning, valuation and technically overbought. Market internals are very frothy, with 57% of stocks closing at a 4-week high, 85% of stocks above the 50-day MA, and 32% of stocks with an RSI above 70 – levels that typically signal an overloved market and a potential reversal. Valuations are also lofty, with the S&P500 trading on 21.4x forward earnings, although that is more of a 2024 story. Positioning is becoming extreme, with CTAs now max long and shorts having covered hard. Downside protection/hedges have been rolled right off, where the volatility markets have pulled back to the point where many are feeling its cheap and prudent to buy short-dated puts or put spreads. US rates and swaps are rich (see above), notably on the starting point for Fed easing, with the March FOMC meeting now priced at a 70% chance of a cut. We can also look further out and see over five 25bp cuts priced by the end of 2024. The move in short-end rates has been swift, and the USD has followed in earnest. It suggests that the skew in the risk and the potential direction of travel is shifting, and if any of the US data points this week – notably US payrolls - come in above consensus then USD shorts will part cover and those positioned long of Treasuries may too – equity will be sensitive to any move higher in yields. So the chase in risk into year-end heats up but what is extreme can become more so, with the market's elastic band getting pulled back to greater and greater levels. On balance, it feels like long risk is still tactically the right position, but the higher it goes the more the ‘January effect’ will kick in and the more pronounced the position squaring and risk drawdown could play out – as liquidity thins out it could be a very lively period ahead. A turn is coming, but timing it is where the money will be made. Good luck to all…. The marquee event risks for the week ahead: ECB President Lagarde speaks (01:00 AEDT) – the EU swaps market prices 20bp of cuts as soon as the March ECB meeting and 114bp (nearly 5) cuts 12 months out – will Lagarde push back on this dovish pricing, and will the market believe her? Tokyo CPI (Tuesday 10:30 AEDT) – the median estimate is we see headline inflation at 3% (from 3.3%) and core 3.7% (3.8%). This shouldn’t move the JPY unless it’s a speculator beat/miss, but the BoJ will be watching this closely. RBA meeting (Tuesday 14:30 AEST) – the market prices no hikes at all for this meeting, so it will be down to the tone of the statement and whether the 8bp of hikes priced for the February RBA meeting are correctly priced. It’s hard to see any major deviation from RBA Gov Bullock's recent communication, so the meeting should be a low-volatility event for the AUD or AUS200. US JOLTS job openings (Wednesday 02:00 AEDT) – the market looks for a slight cooling in job openings, with 9.3 million job openings eyed (9.55m). The USD could be sensitive to this print and prone to short covering if we see above 10m job openings. US ISM services (Wednesday 02:00 AEDT) – the consensus is that we see expansion in the US service sector, with consensus at 52.3 (51.8). A downside read towards 50 (the growth/contraction divide) could see further buyers in US Treasuries and keep the pressure on the USD. If the data comes out inline or above consensus then USD shorts could cover. The sub-components of the report matter, notably in new orders and employment. If the employment sub-component comes in under 50, then it could impact expectations and positioning ahead of nonfarm payrolls (NFP). Australia Q3 GDP (Wednesday 11:30 AEDT) – It’s hard to see this influencing the AUD too intently, but it is a small risk for those running AUD exposures over the event. The market eyes GDP at 0.4% qoq / 1.8% yoy. US ADP employment change (Thursday 00:15 AEDT) – with NFPs on Friday the market should be less sensitive to the outcome of the ADP report. With the consensus at 120K jobs, a big beat/miss could impact the USD, as expectations for the NFP change. Bank of Canada meeting (Thursday 02:00 AEDT) – the market prices no change in policy at this meeting, so it’s the guidance and tone of the statement that matters more. CAD swaps price an 80% chance of a 25bp cut by the March meeting and nearly 5 cuts priced by end-2024 China trade data (Thursday – no set time) – the market looks for import growth of 4%, and exports to fall 1.5%. The market will look for signs of internal demand, so could be sensitive to any beat/miss in the import print. US nonfarm payrolls (S at 00:30 AEDT) – the marquee event risk for the markets this week. The median estimate is for around 180k jobs, with the economist's estimates ranging from 240k to 100k. We will also look at trends in revisions to the prior reads, as this will also affect the 3-month average. The market could be sensitive to the U/E rate which is expected to remain unchanged at 3.9% - a 4-handle on the E/U rate would get the market talking and likely hit the USD. Also, consider average hourly earnings are expected at 0.3% mom/4% yoy. I would argue the USD would rally harder on a big NFP print, than selloff on a weaker print. China CPI/PPI (Sat 09:30 AEDT) – The data falls when markets are closed, so there is some gapping risk in Chinese assets and their proxies. Here the market looks for CPI at -0.2% and PPI inflation at -3%. Amid the disinflationary/deflationary backdrop, there are increasing calls for further monetary policy easing.
PEPPERSTONE:US30Long
by Pepperstone
14
GC: Gold Reaches Record High on Hope of Fed Rate CutsCOMEX: Gold Options ( COMEX:GC1! ) Gold prices rallied to an all-time high on Friday. Spot gold climbed 1.6% to $2,069 per ounce, up 3.4% for the week. Gold price rose to $2,075 mid-session to beat the previous record of $2,072 reached in 2020. U.S. gold futures also broke new ground. The February 2024 contract of COMEX gold futures settled at a record high of $2,089.7, up 1.6% for the week. On Friday, gold futures trade volume was 259,889 lots, with open interest standing at 498,685 contracts. Options on the COMEX gold futures also attracted investor attention. On Friday, total options volume was 92,906, up 112% from the prior day. Open interest was 806,297 lots. For the lead February 2024 contracts, investors bought 19,565 call options and 6,894 put options. A call-to-put ratio of 2.83:1 indicates that investors are very bullish on gold. Gold prices have been pumped up on investor hype that the Federal Reserve may have completed its monetary tightening policy and could start cutting rates as early as March. How high could gold price go? Since last year, I have written extensively about gold on TradingView. Let’s revisit the fundamental drivers of the global gold market. Gold as an Inflation Hedge Gold has historically been an excellent hedge against inflation because its price tends to rise when the cost-of-living increases. The US CPI Index has a base value of 100 set at 1982-1984. Its latest reading in October is 307.7. Over the last 40 years, the cost of US goods and services has tripled on average. The year-end gold price between 1982 and 1984 averaged $378. As of Friday, the bullion gained 447% for the same period. Over the long run, investing in gold does beat inflation. Gold as a Precious Metal As a commodity, gold is negatively correlated to the US dollar. Since gold is priced in dollar, a strong dollar raises the cost for foreign investors who must pay more with weakened foreign currency. This reduces the demand for gold. “Strong Dollar, Weak Commodities” is the general theme in global commodities market, gold included. A closely related theme is “Higher Rates, Lower Prices”. Higher interest rates and Treasury bond yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Unlike other commodities, gold is not consumed or used up every year. Therefore, gold mining output is not a major factor in the pricing of gold. Gold as a Safe Haven Investment Gold retains its value in times of both financial chaos and geopolitical crises. People flee to its relative safety when world tensions rise. During such times, gold often outperforms other investments. In the past two decades, gold price peaked during the 2008 financial crisis, the 2010 European debt crisis, the 2018-19 US-China trade conflict, the outbreak of COVID pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the March 2023 U.S. bank run. Gold as an Investment Class As an investment class, gold competes for investor money along with stocks, bonds, cryptos and money-market funds. Even at record high, gold gained only 13.2% year-to-date, underperforming S&P 500 (+19.6%), Nasdaq 100 (+46.4%) and Bitcoin (+136.0%). A False Narrative on Monetary Easing The recent rise in the stocks and gold is largely shaped by the changes in market sentiment. Investors believe that the Fed is shifting gears from restricted to easing policy. Looking back in the past two years, market sentiment might not be the most reliable gauge of the Fed’s next step of action. The market has called for the Fed Pivot prematurely and incorrectly multiple times. We will need to wait and see what’s happening next. In his speech at Spelman College in Atlanta on Friday, the Fed Chair said that “the risks of under- and over-tightening are becoming more balanced,” but the Fed is not thinking about lowering rates right now. Investors focus on the current rate well into restrictive territory, but pointedly ignore the warning that it was premature to speculate on easing rates. The confirmation bias is at work here. They hear what they want to hear and create a new narrative that rate cuts will come sooner. Pricing in 5-6 rate cuts in a year is very aggressive. The Fed Chair has been accused of being too late to act, seeing inflation transitory earlier on. When it comes to cutting rates, the Fed would be very cautious, and at a very slow and measured pace. Trading Opportunities with Gold Options Market fundamentals haven’t changed. Market sentiment, however, has shifted. The aggressive rate-cut assumption has the effect of lowering the expected interest rates. This helps raise the present value of future cash flows. Hence, stock value goes up. Lower bond yield reduces the disadvantage of holding the non-yielding gold, and the US dollar weakening makes gold more attractive to foreign buyers. This bull market is vulnerable. If investors adjust their rate-cut assumptions from 5-6 to 2-3 times, the market could turn nosediving. However, investors set their sight on rate cuts and will not abandon it until the fact rejects the false narrative. Gold has a so-called “Santa Claus rally” and could continue for a while. The Fed Chair’s statement could become more convincing if: • Nonfarm payroll stays strong (December 8th) • CPI stops falling (December 12th) • The Fed keeps rate unchanged and emphasizes on fighting inflation (December 13th) Options on COMEX Gold Futures (GC) could be a cost-efficient and risk-mitigated way to express one’s opinion on how quickly the Fed would cut rates. Each options contract is based on 1 futures contract and has a notional value of 100 troy ounces of gold. At $2,089.7, each contract is worth $208,970. For illustration purpose: For the February 2024 contract, an out-of-the-money (OTM) call at 2190 ($100 above futures price) is quoted at 18.80. To acquire 1 call options requires an upfront premium of $1,880 (= 18.80 x 100 ounces). An OTM put at 1990 ($100 below futures price) is quoted at 9.00. To acquire 1 put requires an upfront premium of $900 (= 9.00 x 100 ounces). Options premium is significantly lower than futures margin, which stands at $7,800 per contract. It’s a fraction of the cost if you were to buy 100 ounces of gold in the spot market. If the trader buys a call and gold futures goes up, his account will increase in value. Unlike investing in spot gold or gold futures, the payoff in options is nonlinear, determining by the Black-Scholes option model. Similarly, when the trader buys a put and gold futures declines, he would also make a profit. On the flip side, the trader could lose money if the market moves against him. But the maximum loss is capped at the upfront premium. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!
by JimHuangChicago
7
Explosion In Gold. Where To Next?It has been quite a volatile year for EASYMARKETS:XAUUSD and, judging by end of November and beginning of December activity, it continuous to be a volatile one, as we get closer to the new year. On the 4th of December we saw EASYMARKETS:XAUUSD hitting a new historic high, reaching the area near the 2144-dollar mark. This way the precious metal surpassed its previous all-time high, near the 2082-dollar mark, reached in April of this year. That said, before the EU market open on the 4th of December, the yellow metal fell back below that previous high and at the time of writing it is struggling to get back above that barrier. If EASYMARKETS:XAUUSD continues to trade below that 2082 zone, we may see a slight correction back down. That said, we may class that correction as a temporary one, before another leg of buying, as long as the price stays somewhere above a long-term tentative upside support line drawn from the lowest point of November 2022. As mentioned above, if the price is able to stay somewhere above the 2082 hurdle, this may attract more buying interest, possibly dragging EASYMARKETS:XAUUSD towards the newly-established all-time high, at 2144. If that hurdle gets broken, this will confirm a forthcoming higher high, placing the commodity into an uncharted territory. That’s when we will use the help of our Fibonacci extension tool, in order to try and find our next possible resistance target. As we can see from our chart, the next potential target is at 61.8% extension, which is around the 2180 level. Alternatively, a drop back below the 2048 zone could signal a possible larger correction lower. In that scenario we will start aiming for the 2009 hurdle, marked by the highest point of October. If that hurdle is not able to halt the slide, we may see EASYMARKETS:XAUUSD drifting below the psychological 2000 area, towards the 1933 level. That level marks the lowest point of November. Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EASYMARKETS:XAUUSD
by easyMarkets
16
Have you had your coffee yet?We already know that coffee beans have always been one of the most traded commodities in the world, specifically second, so why the sudden interest again? Figure 1: Summary of World Coffee In recent years, global consumption has increased at a higher rate than production due to pent-up demand. This rather large deficit in balance in the past two years puts the coffee market in an interesting spotlight. Nonetheless, arabica beans continue to be the more favored selection, with South America as the central production region, driven mainly by Brazil. Gaining Access to This Market Amongst various coffee derivatives, a coffee futures contract is the most common way to trade coffee. The 4/5 Arabica Coffee Futures (ICF) listed by Brasil, Bolsa, Balcão (B3) Exchange is an example of such contracts. For those unfamiliar with futures contracts, it is a legal agreement to buy or sell a specified asset at a predetermined price for delivery at a specified time in the future. For the ICF contract, the asset is 100 bags of 60 kilograms filled with grade 4-25 or better Arabica coffee bean produced in Brazil that is meant to be delivered in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, or a B3 accredited warehouse. The ICO’s Grading and Classification of Green Coffee states that “coffees of the highest altitudes are denser and larger in size than those produced at lower altitudes.” Loosely speaking, larger beans with higher density are better. The grade indicators refer to the number of defects found in a 300g sample. To achieve a 4-25 grade, the coffee must be classified by B3 in accordance with its rules and regulations. This grading system is more specific to Brazil-produced beans. Other coffee-producing countries have other specifications and classifications. The Trampoline Effect Figure 2: Supply & Demand Factors Historically, the ICF future prices resemble that of a trampoline, with major support lines at the 124.55 and 103.60 levels. Let us explore some of the factors that caused these jumps previously; bear in mind that consumption of Arabica beans has been steadily increasing since the 1990s. S1: Poor weather conditions in South America in 2010 Brazil suffered from poor weather conditions and faced significant problems in meeting the expected crop yield. Large producers were also considering hoarding their stocks. The problem was further exacerbated by the backdrop of record low arabica stock levels since the 1960s. S2: Drought in Brazil in 2014 Similarly, poor weather conditions caused uncertainty in crop production for the harvest year and pushed prices up. S3: Drought and frost in Brazil 2021 The effects of drought followed by a severe wave of frost in Brazil wiped out its coffee production. This was accompanied by increased freight costs and shipment issues caused by Covid-19. S4: Harvest Conditions Evidently, weather conditions pose significant downside risks to the coffee supply. Moreover, occasional coffee leaf rust coupled with increasing demand has caused spikes in coffee prices. USD and Coffee Figure 3: ICF and DXY (Inverted) As with many commodities, coffee tends to move inversely with USD. This is especially so since most coffee contracts, like the ICF, are priced in USD. When the dollar rises, coffee becomes more expensive in non-USD terms and can cause international demand to fall, and vice versa. Figure 4: ICF and BRLUSD This relationship becomes more apparent when compared to BRLUSD. Our thought process: Local Brazilian producers and manufacturers traded these ICF contracts as a hedging tool. During the physical delivery of the beans, these market participants would then have to do a currency exchange. Consequently, the impact of BRLUSD rates would have a larger impact on them. Similar Coffee Futures Contract Figure 5: ICF and KC The two contacts’ underlying assets - arabica beans - have similar grading standards. Consequently, macroeconomic factors are likely to have similar impacts on the two contract prices. The prices between the two contracts exhibit a very strong positive correlation. We can then create a spread with ICF – Coffee C (KC) Futures Contract. Figure 6: ICF - KC ICF is quoted USD per bag for a contract size of 100 60kg bags, while KC is quoted USD cents per pound for a contract size of 37,500 lbs. We can then create a spread with ICF1!/60-KC1!/0.4536/100, by converting both contracts to the same base units. The spread setup indicates that KC generally trades at a premium compared to ICF. This could be attributed to several factors, a notable one being the higher liquidity preference investors tend to have for the KC contract, which might reflect a broader international preference. It is also worth noting that ICF requires Brazil-produced arabica beans, while KC comprises beans from other countries. This could explain the uncanny coincidence between the upside bias in spread movements (Figure 6) occurring in periods identified in Figure 2 – supply-side factors driven mainly from the Brazil side. Putting into Practice Enough has been said about coffee; you must be wondering how we then use this information to set up trades. Here are some ways for consideration. Case Study 1: Directional Driven By considering current macroeconomic factors on coffee, to express a “quieter” outlook on coffee, an investor could sell the ICF future contract (ICFH4). At the present level of 206.00, with a stop-loss above 219.00 – a conservative resistant line – it brings us a hypothetical maximum loss of 219.00-206.00 = 13.00 points. As shown in Figure 2, if ICF1! Reverts to major support line 124.55, a hypothetical gain of 206.00-124.55=81.45 points. Each ICF futures contract represents 100 bags; the value of each point move is USD100. However, as we approach the main harvest period for Brazil, May to Sep, it is of paramount importance for the investor to keep a watch for any potential hiccups that could negatively affect the harvest yield. Furthermore, this is likely to be a medium-term macro-driven strategy. Case Study 2: Spread Driven Regarding the ICF-KC spread currently trading at the upper bound, an investor with a bearish short-term view that the spread will trend downwards could sell ICF futures contract (ICFH4) and buy KC futures contracts (KCH4). At the present level of 206.00 and 169.95 for ICFH4 and KCH4, respectively. Following the formula above, the spread will be at –0.31336 points. Setting the resistance at the Fibonacci 50% ratio, we have a stop loss at -0.25, which brings us a hypothetical maximum loss of -0.25-(-0.31336) = 0.06336 points. Setting the support at the Fibonacci 38.2% ratio, we set our take profit at -0.40, which brings us a hypothetical gain of -0.31336-(-0.40) = 0.08664 points. The value of each point move in ICFH4 is USD100, while KCH4 is USD375. Conclusion There are various methods to create opportunities for investors, depending on how the investor would like to view the market or what other financial assets to pair up with coffee futures contracts. What we have covered in this article merely scrapes the tip of the iceberg, and we hope investors keep a creative mindset and explore other potential options. Disclaimer: The contents of this article are intended for information purposes only and do not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
BMFBOVESPA:ICF1!Short
by inspirante
10
PLTR Has Reached Key Upside Levels: Tighten StopsPrimary Chart : Palantir Technologies Inc. NYSE:PLTR on a daily time frame with key Fibonacci Levels drawn as well as support, resistance, the 21-day EMA, and a critical VWAP from the bear-market lows of December 2022 Palantir Technologies Inc. NYSE:PLTR , once a tech darling of the 2020-2021 bull market in equities, has achieved a substantial retracement now of its vicious 2021-2022 bear-market decline. PLTR has been a popular stock ever since going public via a direct public offering, the same type of registered share offering used by NYSE:SPOT and Slack Technologies, LLC, which is now owned by Salesforce. PLTR provides data-analysis and AI technologies to large government agencies, including defense agencies and branches of the military, as well as large corporations. Despite periods of consolidation—especially from August 1, 2023, to November 1, 2023, PLTR has been in a primary-degree uptrend since its bear market low on December 27, 2022. The uptrend has been mostly strong and supported by the volume-weighted average price anchored to the bear-market low (green), which is shown on the Primary Chart above. Price has also run into a major long-term Fibonacci level at $20.74. This level is also shown on the Primary Chart in gold. Using a logarithmic scale, this Fibonacci level at $20.74 is a 61.8% retracement of the all-time high to the December 2022 low. Above this level suggests more upside. Below this level suggests either (i) consolidation, or (ii) resumption of the downtrend (if key long-term support levels break decisively). When plotted on a linear chart, PLTR has also reached (and stalled at) a critical Fibonacci retracement of its entire bear-market decline. This .382 Fibonacci retracement at $20.85 is often where bull flags or bear flags consolidate within a given trend. Some might view this level as a decisive level for the bbear case given that 38.2% of the bear-market decline has been retraced, and therefore, rising above this level would suggest the uptrend has further to climb (e.g., $25.46 at the 50% retracement shown in green below). So this level at $20.74 / $20.85 (whether viewed as a .618 Fibonacci retracement or a .382 Fibonacci retracement) is crucial to monitor. Supplementary Chart A This post argues that the primary uptrend looks as though it has become extended. Does this mean the high has been reached for the this particular uptrend? It's not wise to call the end of a primary trend until technical confirmation has occurred. Picking a long-term high is nearly impossible. The negative divergences on weekly and daily time frames are shown in the following charts: Supplementary Chart B Supplementary Chart C Supplementary Chart D Supplementary Chart E Supplementary Chart F So momentum has definitely slowed in this AI / tech / data-analysis name, and negative (bearish) divergences have arisen. At a minimum, this could signal a period of consolidation lies ahead in the first half (1H) of 2024. The supplementary charts show the divergences one should watch carefully. This may provide a reason for bullish position traders and investors to tighten stops. And if key levels snap decisively, such as the $16.36 level or the August 2023 supports at $13.68 or the VWAP (green) from December 2022, then watch for a retest or break of lows.
P
by SquishTrade
24
Bitcoin ETFs coming soon: what could happen?Hello, folks! If this is your first time reading one of my ideas, welcome, hope you enjoy it. If you are a regular visitor of my ideas, thank you! Let's discuss the fuss around Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). With 8 Bitcoin ETFs awaiting regulatory approval, decisions are anticipated between January and March 2024, let's consider how this could shake up Bitcoin's price, the wider crypto market, investor confidence, and the overall financial scene. 🧙🏽‍♂️ Spot ETFs: A Direct Link to Bitcoin's Supply SPOT ETFs are unique because they require the actual holding of Bitcoin by the fund. In an environment where Bitcoin's availability on exchanges is at an all-time low, these ETFs could significantly influence the market's supply-demand dynamics. The approval of SPOT ETFs is likely to ramp up demand significantly. Given Bitcoin's capped supply, this increased demand could lead to substantial price surges, potentially setting new all-time highs. 🧙🏽‍♂️ Investor Sentiment: A Confidence Boost For investors, SPOT ETFs represent a more secure, regulated path to Bitcoin investment. This could draw in a fresh wave of investment, both from retail and (more importantly) institutional sectors, think pension funds for example. This could potentially result in elevating Bitcoin's price and market stability in a way never seen before. 🧙🏽‍♂️ The Financial Landscape: Embracing Digital Currencies On a larger scale, SPOT ETFs indicate a significant stride in incorporating cryptocurrencies into mainstream finance. This move could spark further innovation and adoption of digital currencies in diverse financial services. While some banks are now known to block transactions related to crypto, or even entire accounts, it's not unimaginable that they will start offering crypto services themselves. An approval of several ETFs would incorporate crypto into Wall Street. 🧙🏽‍♂️ The First-Mover Scenario: A Case for Simultaneous Approval In the realm of these ETF applications, the potential for a first-mover advantage looms large. Here's a breakdown of the key players and their decision dates: Ark/21 Shares Bitcoin Trust: 1/10/24 Bitwise Bitcoin ETF Trust: 3/15/24 BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Trust: 3/16/24 VanEck Bitcoin Trust: 3/16/24 WisdomTree Bitcoin Trust: 3/16/24 Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund: 3/16/24 Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF: 3/16/24 Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust: 3/16/24 If one of these ETFs gets approval ahead of the others, it could dominate investor interest. To avoid this and foster a healthier, more competitive market, regulators might consider approving multiple ETFs simultaneously, ensuring no single fund unfairly corners the market. This means that we might see approval of several ETFs in January 2024, less than 2 months from now! 🧙🏽‍♂️ Conclusion: A Turning Point for Crypto? The potential approval of Bitcoin SPOT ETFs marks a pivotal moment in the crypto narrative. It's a validation of Bitcoin's growing influence and a beacon for a more inclusive crypto market. For the crypto community, it's a period of pride and anticipation; for cautious investors, a new pathway into the crypto realm; and for the financial world, a step toward embracing the digital currency era. Let's eagerly watch together how this story unfolds. Here's to the dynamic and ever-evolving world of cryptocurrencies! 🥂🚀🌕 ❓ Questions for you: What do you think will happen? Do you expect one or more ETFs to be approved in January? What do you think will be the effect on price of that happening? How will you trade/invest based on your expectations? Leave your answers to these questions in the comments below. Oh, and if you enjoyed reading this, like/boost, follow and shares are highly appreciated!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Profit_Through_Patience
147
Why All Traders Should Master Alerts: Cyber Monday SpecialWe've got great news... We've extended our epic Black Friday sale into Cyber Monday. That's right - one more chance to get a plan at up to 70% off. Act now, or you'll miss our deal. Seriously, this is it. With one of our Premium plans, you'll get up to 800 combined alerts and all our other features (Volume Profiles, more bars, indicators on indicators, and endless other tools) for less than $17 per month. Many of the best traders out there covet our alerts. Why do alerts matter? How can you use them? Let us explain and be sure to utilize these tips with your new plan: 1. Plan ahead with alerts and be prepared 🎯📈 The act of creating alerts requires research, planning, and thoughtful analysis. In order to find the exact level you want to place an alert at, you first must research the chart in great detail. Then, once you've found your level, you'll want to create an alert at that level and wait for it to trigger. This entire process is the cornerstone of creating a plan and becoming more prepared for all the things markets may throw at you. Alerts allow well-prepared traders with some edge to step back from the markets and allow the trades to come to them. Ready to make your first alert? Here's how: Right-click on the exact price level and then select "Create Alert" from the menu. You can also use the keyboard shortcut Alt + A or on a Mac option + A. Lastly, at the top of every chart is a clock icon. Click that to open your alert menu and get started. The very act of creating alerts encourages planning, research, and preparation for the future possibilities. 2. Alerts create good trading habits 😎💪 Alerts take out the guesswork of entering and exiting a position. Set alerts for the prices you would like, then place a trade if, and only if, the conditions are met and that alerts triggers. Set the alert and wait patiently. Let the market do its thing and let the probabilities work in your favor. Do your research. Find a price level that looks important and wait. You have the tools available to you to research and follow markets, now add an alert at a level that's important to you and let our platform do the heavy lifting - we'll notify you when it triggers. 3. Our alerts don’t miss ✅⏰ Our alerts notify you anywhere and everywhere whether it's on our desktop app, mobile phone, email or a custom webhook to a chat room, website or something entirely unique to you. Our customizable alerts allow well-organized traders to capture every opportunity as they see it. Our alerts also work on trend lines, technical indicators, customizable scripts, and much more, so you can ensure that your favorite setups aren’t being missed. We offer both technical alerts and price alerts, which means you have double the number of alerts at your disposal. We hope you learned something new from this post and utilize all the helpful tips in your new TradingView plan. Happy Cyber Monday! - TradingView
by TradingView
22
Sofi - A possible repeating patternA repeating pattern and potential opportunity All three companies have some form of crypto offering. NUbank, Coinbase and Sofi appear to have similar bottoming patterns with double bottoms and a head and shoulders style reversal. The charts are not identical but you can clearly see a repeating testing of levels and a price cluster (red shaded area) which appears to be the new base forming offering good enough support for a trade set up. Under the price cluster red shaded area there are double bottoms. I have been in the NUBank trade since Jan 2023 at $3.51 and I noticed COIN had a similar bottoming pattern in June 2023 but it had not broken out yet, so I shared a comparative chart at the time and took a position in COIN, noting the stop as the bottom of the red box. I have shared individual charts on COIN and NU to this effect also. Since June COINBASE has had 120% increase and I believe this will continue. Whilst its price movement since the sharing in June is not identical to NUbank, you can clearly see a parallel channel bottoming, head and shoulders reversal and similar price clusters which i marked up. I was most confident on the COIN trade when it had its strong pull back from Jul - Oct, here I double the position when it came back and bounced off the the 200 day moving average perfectly. Two of the great trades of this year from me which I am still currently holding NYSE:NU and $Coin. I believe there maybe an opportunity for this much smaller company $SOFI. A trade set up is there with a defined stop and good risk to reward (outlined on chart). I have not entered this trade yet, but i may in coming weeks. I will keep you posted. PUKA
NASDAQ:COIN
by PukaCharts
14
A Traders’ Weekly Playbook: The heat is onVolume and liquidity kick back into markets after the US Thanksgiving celebrations and we consider if the trend of a weaker USD, low cross-asset volatility, rising gold and Bitcoin can continue. Direction for this scenario will focus on the direction of travel in equity markets, and notably, whether the NAS100, US500 and even the JPN225 can kick higher. The economic data and broad event risk offer no major landmines for traders to get overly concerned by, and I think we need to look further ahead at the US nonfarm payrolls (9 Dec) and US CPI (13 Dec) reports for the big part of the macro jigsaw. At this juncture, for traders who cut their craft on higher timeframes (4hr, daily, weekly) there doesn’t seem to be many reasons to be aggressively short risk, and while price action will be dictated to by passive and portfolio flows, the news, and levels of implied volatility suggests if risky assets do kick then it could pay to chase. The USD is central to broad market sentiment, and Friday’s close in the DXY below the 200-day MA may well be telling. With an eye on EU CPI, we focus on whether EURUSD can push through 1.0950/60, and USDJPY into 148, a factor which could see new cycle highs in gold with industrial metals also supported, although Chinese data could play a part in driving that trade. I like USDCHF downside, with a stop above 0.8760. GBPUSD and AUDUSD also look like they could kick, although the latter needs to push through the 200-day MA and then the 0.66 level. Bitcoin is making another run at 38k, and after consolidation, we’ll see if price can continue its ascent since mid-October. Clients believe this to be true and are positioned accordingly and many will be thinking Bitcoin can start 2024 with 40 as the big number. Good luck to all. The marquee event risks for the week ahead: China Industrial Profits (27 Nov 12:30 AEDT) – coming off a low base, we saw profits gain 11.9% yoy seen in September. There is no consensus to work off, so pricing risk on the data is a challenge, so the data is unlikely to see too great an initial reaction in markets. US consumer confidence (29 Nov 02:00 AEDT) – the consensus is that we see the index come in at 101.0 (from 102.6). A print below 100 could further weigh on the USD. Australia monthly CPI (29 Nov 11:30 AEDT) – the market looks for the monthly CPI read to come in at 5.2% (5.6%), with the range of estimates set from 5.5% to 4.9%. Few expect a hike from the RBA on 5 December, but expectations of a hike in the February RBA meeting are delicately poised at 50%, so the monthly CPI print could influence that call and impact the AUD vs the crosses. RBNZ meeting (29 Nov 12:00 AEDT) – the RBNZ will leave interest rates unchanged at 5.5%, with the markets ascribing no probability of a hike here. In fact, the argument is more on the timing of the first cut, with a 33% chance of a 25bp cut priced by the May RBNZ meeting, and 55bp of cuts priced by end-2024. Sweden Q3 GDP (29 Nov 18:00 AEDT) – the market looks for Q3 GDP to come in at -0.2% QoQ / -1.4% yoy. After recording -0.8% in Q2, another negative quarter puts Sweden in a technical recession and accelerates the need to cut rates, where we see the door open for easing from June 2024. This GDP print should also mark the low point, where GDP should be less bad going forward, which is part of the reason why the market has been better buyers of the SEK of late. China manufacturing and services PMI (30 Nov 12:30 AEDT) – the market looks for the manufacturing index at 49.6 (from 49.5) & 51.1 (50.6). Keep an eye on copper over the data, and for a possible upside break of $3.80 and the 200-day MA – a scenario which would likely put upside risks in the AUD. EU CPI (30 Nov 21:00 AEDT) – the market looks for headline CPI inflation to come in at -0.2% MoM / 2.7% (from 2.9%), with core CPI at 3.9%. The swaps market sees the ECB hiking cycle as firmly over and looks for the first cut in April, which may be a touch optimistic. We also see the hedge fund community heavily short of EURs, so if equities can squeeze higher then EURUSD should follow suit with moves accelerated on short covering. OPEC meeting (delayed - 30 Nov) – Expectations of deeper output cuts are low, with most commodity strategists seeing a higher risk that the current output cuts are extended into 2024. OPEC+ could shock the market of course, but looking at the price action in crude it seems the market is positioned short of Brent Crude into the meeting and betting OPEC+ don’t step up its attempts to reverse the recent bear trend. A close above $83 could see shorts square and even reverse. US core PCE inflation (1 Dec 00:30 AEDT) – the market looks for 3.1% on headline PCE inflation (down from 3.4%) and core PCE at 0.2% mom / 3.5% yoy (from 3.7%). We look at trends in service prices and services ex-shelter, where slower prices rises should cement the view of adjustment rate cuts from the Fed in 2024. Canada employment report (2 Dec 00:030 AEDT) – the consensus is that we see 15k jobs created and the U/E rate at 5.8% (from 5.7%) – There’s not a lot to like about the CAD at present, although the market is seeing even less interest in the USD at present. A break of 1.3692 would be welcomed by USDCAD shorts, and the jobs print may influence that flow. In rates, we see the first cut from the BoC priced for April and some 74bp cuts priced by end-2024. US ISM manufacturing (2 Dec 02:00 AEDT) – the market looks for modest improvement with the diffusion index eyed at 47.7 (46.7). I’m not expecting a huge reaction to this data point as we know manufacturing is weak and we won't learn too much here. Central bank speakers RBA – Gov Bullock speaks from Hong Kong (12:18 AEDT) BoE – Ramsden, Haskel, Bailey (30 Nov 02:05 AEDT), Hauser, Greene ECB – Lagarde, Deo Cos, Panetta Fed – Goolsbee, Waller, Mester, Powell (2 Dec 03:00 AEDT) BoJ – Adachi, Nakamura
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Pepperstone
2
HAPPY THANKSGIVING! Let's see Bitcoin's price on this date!Let me begin by wishing everyone in the TradingView community a Happy Thanksgiving! A day of joy, gathering and happy family moments! Aren't you curious to see where the price of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was trading on this day in the previous years? If so, have a look: 2010: $0.28 2011: $2.49 2012: $12.51 2013: $813 2014: $376 2015: $328 2016: $739 2017: $8,771 2018: $4,015 2019: $7,150 2020: $18,764 2021: $58,927 2022: $16,353 2023: $37,000 So the obvious question is this. Do you see the pattern?? Since 2009 there have been 10 Thanksgiving dates where the price of BTC was higher than the previous year and only 4 where it was lower. Only once we've seen two straight red Thanksgivings and at least two green Thanksgiving dates follow. This year we have a green one, more than double the price of 2022 and in fact this is the first time BTC doubled coming from a red Thanksgiving since 2016. An interesting pattern that arises on this chart is that when measuring the line that connects the Thanksgiving closer to the Cycle Top back to years, we can see that its angle is lower (naturally) by a certain rate. From 2015 to 2017 it measured the previous angle x 0.64. From 2019 to 2021 it was the previous angle x 0.68. From 2022 to 2024 based on this progressive pattern, is should be the previous angle x 0.72 (0.68 + 0.04). That gives us a rough value just under $80000 for the next Thanksgiving (November 28 2024). It is very possible that the Cycle top will be priced higher a few weeks after on an aggressive spike above $100k, as BTC often does (only the June 2011 Cycle Top was way off, being in the middle of two Thanksgivings). But what do you think about this model and its projection? Are you expecting a BTC price around 80k on the next Thanksgiving and if not, what is your estimate? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
32
BITCOIN UPDATE (SCROLL DOWN)We are in an ascending channel pattern for 466 days now, which is a bearish pattern, we are hovering around $36566 price, we lots of volatility yesterday because the CEO of Binance stepped down. For the price to still be where it is now is actually a good reaction from the market! This does not mean bearish and bullish patterns always play out, what we can do is set alerts on the resistance and support levels and trendlines and identify the patterns so we can trade it accordingly.
by UnknownUnicorn22804749
32
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B
by TradingView
28
New Kids on the Block: ETF StyleI recently released 2 libraries and an indicator that revolved around ETFs, their composition and their performance. Creating these libraries required me to do quite a bit of research on which ETFs are currently dominating the US market and which may be more obscure. It also lead me to discover that quite a few new ETFs with pretty powerful holdings have hit the market as recently as last month ($BCLR for example). So I thought I would take the time to go over some of the new kids on the block, the ETFs that is, and also shed some light on potentially some ETFs that you may not have heard of but may be of interest to you. After 2022, I shifted my self-managed portfolios into mostly ETFs so this topic is something that is particularly interesting for me, hope it is for you too! So let us go over the new release ETFs and whether they are a Buy, Sell or Maybe: Blackrock Large Cap Core ETF (AKA NASDAQ:BLCR ) Hitting the market in October of this year and being managed by a big-name investment firm (BlackRock), this ETF is something you may want to seriously consider. With its biggest holding in MSFT, it does well in diversification. If you look at the chart above, you will see the breakdown by sector. It is a very well-rounded ETF, though 27% of its sector holdings are tech, there is admirable diversity, especially through financial services, consumer cyclical, communication services, and Energy. As it is new, we can’t see its performance over the past 252 trading days (1 trading year), but we can see that since it hit the market it has seen over 7% growth, likely due to its heavy investment into pretty relevant stocks. This is on my 💰BUY💰 list, as I see this as being a hybrid of SPY and QQQ but at a better entry cost. First Trust S-Network Streaming & Gaming ETF (AKA AMEX:BNGE ) This one hit exchanges in January of 2022 and is based on streaming and gaming services. Its biggest holding is in NFLX and NTES (an internet technology company based on various online services including streaming), we can see by its holdings there is quite a hefty holding in some pretty big streaming and gaming companies, including Nintendo ( OTC:NTDOY ), Sony ( NYSE:SONY ), Disney ( NYSE:DIS ) and EA ( SET:EA ). Its past trading year history boasts a net gain of 36.54%. This is on my 🤷maybe🤷 list, as I am not big into the gaming sector and don't follow it too closely fundamentally. Direxion Moonshot Innovators ETF (AKA AMEX:MOON ) This one came to exchanges in November of 2020 and, contrary to its name, has yet to seemingly reach the moon. This is an ETF I have mixed feelings about, as its largest holding is in Nikola Corporation. If you don’t remember, the Nikola Corporation, the corporation that was producing those electric trucks, got involved in a scandal when it turned out the prototypes that they displayed had no real engine and their stock dropped dramatically after that came to light: This issue was only resolved in 2022 after extensive court proceedings. This resulted in the indictment of the founder Trevor Milton but not the company itself. That said, they have made progress and actually do have operational trucks that have been shipped and delivered, as of researching this they have sent out a total of 44. However, unfortunately, these trucks have, quite literally, been blowing up in flames. So yeah… not great. And probably not a great stock to lead your ETF with, but to each their own. That said, the other holdings are quite admirable and not generally held on other ETFs. For example, they have a large holding on Robinhood ( NASDAQ:HOOD ), Coinbase ( NASDAQ:COIN ), and Snapchat ( NYSE:SNAP ). And yes, these companies also have their own problems and scandals to go along with them. Because of the aforementioned, it's not generally an ETF that would interest me as it is predominately very speculative companies, but you can decide for yourself if it's holding interest you and your tastes of investments. It may not be a bad one to have a small holding in, in case NIKOLA or COIN ever get their stuff together. For me, this would be on my ❌SELL ❌ list. U.S. Global Jets ETF (AKA AMEX:JETS ) If you are a huge aviation fan, this may be an ETF for you! While its pay year of trading has not been great, largely because the aviation industry is still feeling the shockwave effect of a post-COVID world, it does hold some very solid airline stocks such as American Airlines ( NASDAQ:AAL ), Delta ( NYSE:DAL ) and Air Canada ( TSX:AC ). It's in a spot where it has me considering a potential position myself, but I will let you be the judge of it! Overall, this would be on my 💰BUY💰 list. U.S. Global Sea to Sky Cargo ETF (AKA AMEX:SEA ) Hitting the markets in January of 2022, SEA has not been a great performer thus far. I am not all that familiar with the Cargo or marine sector as this has never been a sector I have personally traded and thus, I have no exposure to reviewing earnings, performance, and fundamentals of various shipping companies, but a brief look at some of its holdings show that these are pretty well-established shipping companies. Take this anecdote with a grain of salt, however, as I have not fully reviewed earnings releases or their SEC filings as I have with companies like BA, NKLA, etc. It is definitely worth checking out, for the sole reason that marine cargo and transportation will remain the gold standard for large material shipping for many years to come. But definitely do your due diligence before investing! This is on my 🤷 maybe 🤷 list. Xtrackers Semiconductor Select Equity ETF (AKA NASDAQ:CHPS ) Coming to markets very recently, July of this year to be exact, this is another ETF that deals with the semiconductor and chip sector. Before, your options were SOXX and that was pretty much it, so this is a breath of fresh air for the chips industry. As it hasn’t been on the market for very long, I can’t really speak to its performance, but if we look at its biggest holdings, it's quite a decent list. Its biggest holding is in Intel ( NASDAQ:INTC ), with Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) and Qualcomm ( NASDAQ:QCOM ) coming in 3 and 4 respectively. SMH and MU are also in the top 10 holdings. If we draw a comparison to SOXX’s holdings, here we are: There is a bit of diversity between the top 10 holdings, so if you are big into the chip sector, this is definitely a must-add, in my opinion. It is on my 💰BUY💰 list. Procure Space ETF (AKA NASDAQ:UFO ) A very interesting ETF that bases itself with stocks that deal with space. I would absolutely love this ETF if it didn’t do the same thing as the MOON ETF, leading its holding with a company that should have gone bankrupt ages ago (aka Sirius XM). If you overlook that fact, the rest of the companies on this list are great and ones that I actually know a bit more intimately. NYSE:GRMN is a top one for me, as well as GSAT and IRDM. These are companies I really like. While AMEX:GSAT is kind of a non-mover, they are undergoing some major restructuring and redesigning of their infrastructure which investors are gaining increasingly more excited about. Same for $IRDM. The rest of the holdings are well-established companies, such as Viasat ( NASDAQ:VSAT ) and Dish ( NASDAQ:DISH ). Despite the Sirus XM thing, this is on my 💰BUY💰 list. U.S. Consumer Focused ETF by iShares (AKA AMEX:IEDI ) Hitting the markets in March of 2018, this is an ETF with its predominant holdings in consumer cyclicals. Its largest holdings comprise large retail names, such as Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ), Walmart ( NYSE:WMT ), Costco ( NASDAQ:COST ), and Target ( NYSE:TGT ), as well as many others! Its performance over the past trading year (252 days) has been approximately 6%. It's definitely an ETF I would keep my eyes on. It is on my 💰buy💰 list for the future as well. I just want to see how this giant monthly bear flag plays out 😉. First Trust Transportation ETF (AKA NASDAQ:FTXR ) Last but not least, we have FTXR. It’s a bit older, having hit the markets in 2016, but still new enough to include in this list. With its largest holdings being Divided between UNP, GM, UPS, F, and TSLA, it has a pretty solid holding in the transportation sector. Some notable mentions are a 4.33% holding in PCAR and a 4.21% holding in FDX. This is on my maybe list. I do like the holdings in Ford, UPS, FDX, and PCAR. It's definitely worth an addition to your watchlist, in my opinion! Concluding Remarks And that concludes the list of newly released ETFs that you may not have heard about! Hope you enjoyed reading. If you are interested in checking out the indicator, which allows you to: 👉 See the breakdown of ETF by top 10 holdings and by sector, 👉 Search for which ETFs hold your favorite tickers in their top 10, 👉 Search for ETFs by Sector and 👉 Search for ETFs by Interest You can click here to check it out! Thanks for reading and, as always, safe trades!
NASDAQ:UFO
by Steversteves
16