Short Covering in GBP/USD - Trend Reversal The trend is your friend! I agree but the trend is also meant to be bought at the low and meant to be sold at the high.
We have used the Fibonacci to determine that buying is a high-probability trading decision this morning.
We have seen a pullback into the buy zone on the 15 Mins chart.
The area of Targets are:
1.] 1.2392
2.] 1.2468
Stop at the LOD: 1.2330
Community ideas
EURNZD - Seize Profitable Opportunity with Anti-Shark PatternEURNZD is currently exhibiting the formation of an Anti-Shark Harmonic Pattern (XABCD) coupled with the presence of a significant Trendline, indicating potential bearish momentum on the horizon. This analysis delves into the technical factors influencing the currency pair's movement and proposes strategic entry and exit points for traders to consider.
Pattern Identification:
Anti-Shark Harmonic (XABCD) with Trendline Confluence
The observed Anti-Shark Harmonic Pattern (XABCD) on the 1-hour time frame suggests a potential reversal in the prevailing trend. This pattern comprises distinct points: X, A, B, C, and D, with Point D marking a crucial juncture for market participants. Additionally, the convergence of a Trendline further emphasizes the significance of Point D as a potential turning point.
Key Levels:
Resistance Identified
Point D aligns strategically with a key resistance level, reinforcing the likelihood of bearish pressure manifesting from this point. Traders should remain vigilant as price action nears this critical area, as it often serves as a catalyst for significant market movements.
Entry Strategy:
Entry: 1.80900
Stop Loss: 1.81370
A prudent entry point at 1.80900 aligns with the anticipated bearish momentum following the completion of the Anti-Shark Harmonic Pattern. To mitigate risk, a stop loss set at 1.81370 provides a buffer against adverse price fluctuations, safeguarding capital in the event of unexpected market developments.
Take Profit Targets:
TP-1: 1.80400
TP-2: 1.79900
TP-3: 1.79436
Strategically positioned take profit targets offer traders opportunities to capitalize on potential downward movements. These targets, set at 1.80400, 1.79900, and 1.79436 respectively, correspond with key support levels where price action may encounter barriers or exhibit signs of reversal.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, the technical analysis of EURNZD on the 1-hour time frame indicates a favorable setup for bearish trading opportunities. With the formation of an Anti-Shark Harmonic Pattern and confluence with a Trendline, coupled with the proximity to a key resistance level, traders are advised to consider short positions with careful risk management. By adhering to the outlined entry, stop loss, and take profit levels, traders can navigate the market dynamics with greater confidence and precision.
Tesla's upcoming Robotaxi launch: stock trading idea 8/04/24Tesla Inc. is gearing up for a significant reveal on 8 August this year, as it plans to introduce its much-anticipated robotaxi. This move comes at a time when the company is navigating sluggish sales and increasing competition from more affordable Chinese electric vehicles. Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, announced on his social media platform, X, the upcoming unveiling of the robotaxi.
Tesla has long been ambitious about its vision of a fully autonomous vehicle, first presented to investors in 2019. Recently, Tesla has rolled out the latest iteration of its driver assistance software, marketed as Full Self-Driving (FSD), to its consumer base.
Given this backdrop, let's delve into Tesla Inc.'s stock (TSLA) to scout for potential trading opportunities:
Analysing the Daily (D1) chart, a support level is identified at 160.51 USD, with resistance at 182.87 USD. A breakout above this resistance level could signify the start of an uptrend.
On the Hourly (H1) chart, initiating long positions becomes attractive upon breaching the 182.87 USD mark, targeting a short-term objective of 205.06 USD. For those looking at a medium-term investment, maintaining a long position until reaching 233.87 USD could be viable.
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(NASDAQ:TESLA) STOCK UNDER $100.00?WATCH SUPPORT LEVELS TO PAY ATTENTIO!
Short Term Price Target
$155.27 to 146.54
1. Tesla's Stock Price Below $100.00: The fact that Tesla's stock could drop below $100.00 suggests a significant bearish sentiment in the market. Investors may be concerned about the company's performance or broader economic factors impacting the stock.
2. Possibility of Dropping Below Support #1 and Ascending Support Line: If Tesla's stock breaks below Support #1 and the ascending support line, it indicates increasing selling pressure and a potential shift in the trend. This could be a signal for traders to anticipate further downside movements.
3. Potential Decline to $118.68 - $91.10 Range, Potentially Breaching Support #2: Breaking below the ascending support line increases the likelihood of a decline to levels between $118.68 and $91.10. Breaching Support #2 could intensify the downward momentum, leading to further losses for Tesla's stock.
4. Gap Fill at $75.69: Should the price breach Support #2, there's a chance that Tesla's stock might fill the gap observed on January 25 and 26, 2023, at $75.69. Gap fills often act as significant support or resistance levels and could influence future price movements.
5. Potential for Return to Pre-COVID Levels: Whether Tesla's stock could return to pre-COVID levels depends on various factors such as the company's fundamentals, market sentiment, and broader economic conditions. While it's possible for stocks to recover from downturns, it would likely require positive catalysts and a favorable operating environment for Tesla to regain its pre-COVID price levels.
In summary, the outlook for Tesla's stock appears bearish in the near term, with potential further declines and a possibility of returning to levels observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, long-term prospects would depend on the company's ability to address underlying challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities.
NFA
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Bitcoin: is price set to get cheaper or.....?Today's focus: BTCUSD
Pattern – Range, seller test.
Support – 62,000 area
Resistance – 73,000 area
Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at BTC on the daily.
With sellers continuing to check buyers, it continues to look like we could see a new move at support. But for now, buyers continue to hold firm from around the 62,000 area.
We have run over a few scenarios. Could we see a move-through support to test the next lower Fibb point? Or will we see support contnue to hold the current range pattern?
Good trading.
Weekly Technical Analysis 15/04/2024Start your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP
Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level and Elliot waves
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Germany 40 is exhibiting a corrective phase within an overall bullish trend, with the price now standing at 17,966, which is slightly below the VWAP of 18,223. The index has found new support at 17,807 and is encountering resistance at 18,638. The RSI is at 45, indicating a cooling off of the previous bullish momentum.
UK 100 is still bullish but has entered a corrective phase. The price has seen a slight decline to 7,967, positioning it just above the VWAP of 7,935. The support level is now 7,890, while resistance lies at 7,980. With an RSI of 64, there’s a slight dip in the bullish sentiment from before.
Wall Street has taken a bearish turn and is in an impulsive phase. The price has dropped to 38,112, falling below the VWAP of 39,005. Support and resistance levels have been adjusted to 37,854 and 40,158, respectively. The RSI has decreased to 35, signalling a shift to bearish momentum.
Brent Crude remains in a bullish and impulsive phase, with the price now at 89.47, above the VWAP of 88.18. Support has been established at 84.14, with resistance not far off at 92.21. An RSI of 61 indicates a marginal decrease in bullish momentum.
Gold has sustained its bullish trend and is in an impulsive phase, with a price hike to 2,359, well over the VWAP of 2,275. The support level has been marked down to 2,130, and resistance has been found at 2,420. The RSI has risen to 70, suggesting a stronger bullish sentiment and an overbought condition.
EUR/USD remains bearish but has shifted into an impulsive phase, with the price tumbling to 1.0658, below the VWAP of 1.0785. The support has been noted at 1.0648, with resistance at 1.0922. An RSI of 32 signifies a reduction in bearish sentiment.
GBP/USD stays bearish and impulsive, with the price at 1.2466, below the VWAP of 1.2595. The support has been updated to 1.2460, with resistance at 1.2731. The RSI at 34 indicates a decrease in bearish momentum.
USD/JPY continues in a bullish trend and remains impulsive, with the price slightly up at 153.84, above the VWAP of 151.86. The support level is 150.20, with resistance observed at 153.52. The RSI at 76 shows a modest decline in bullish momentum.
Corn Prices To Fire Up on Rising Energy CostsIt is official. Inflation is back. But not everywhere. Food inflation is on the decline. All three major crops, Soybean, Wheat, and Corn have declined substantially. Bearish sentiments rings loud across agri with ample supplies combined with solid harvest expectations.
Among crops, corn has fared best. Its prices have not declined as much. Corn outlook is positive given South American supply uncertainty and gasoline linked demand spike.
Corn prices face downside risk from ample supply in the near term. Prices have the potential to spike during later part of the year due to supply uncertainty and higher consumption.
Traders can deploy a calendar spread in CME Corn futures comprising of a short September 2024 Corn Futures (ZSU2024) and a long March 2025 Corn Futures (ZSH2025) to gain from shifting dynamics.
RECORD US CROP WILL SUPPRESS NEAR TERM CORN PRICE
The US produced a record 389.69 million MT of corn last year as per latest USDA figures. Massive production is a result of record high yield of 177.3 bushels per acre.
Globally, corn production in the current marketing year is expected to reach a record 1,227 million MT, due to the US crop last year.
Higher supply is expected to lead to a buildup in ending stocks. Stocks are expected to increase from 302.19 million MT to 318.28 million MT. This represents a buildup of almost 16 million MT.
Ample supplies are a headwind to near term corn prices.
USDA ESTIMATES MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC
Global corn production forecasts by USDA may be too optimistic. Upcoming harvests from Brazil and Argentina may spring surprises to the downside.
USDA’s forecast for the Brazil corn crop is currently at 124 million MT. Brazil’s national agricultural agency - CONAB - puts the harvest at 110.9 million MT as per their latest crop survey . The difference stems from USDA’s assumption of higher planted area.
CONAB recently cut its estimate for planted area pointing to lower crop prices dissuading farmers from planting corn. Planting in Brazil is delayed from its usual schedule.
USDA is also optimistic about the Argentinian crop. It reduced its forecast for Argentinian corn by 1 million MT to 55 million MT in the latest WASDE report. However, that is still optimistic given the ongoing spread of spiroplasma disease. Last week, Argentina’s Rosario Exchange slashed corn estimates to just 50.5 million MT from a previous forecast of 57 million MT citing crop loss linked with diseases.
USDA estimates are 18 million MT higher than harvest forecasted by regional agencies across Brazil & Argentina. Corn supplies may end up being much tighter than the USDA is currently forecasting if harvests come softer than anticipated.
ETHANOL PRODUCTION IS LIKELY TO INCREASE CORN CONSUMPTION
USDA increased its forecast for corn consumption for ethanol production by twenty-five million bushels (635k MT) in the latest WASDE report. With gasoline and crude prices on a tear, ethanol blending into gasoline is likely to remain elevated during the coming months driving corn demand.
Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) serves as another source of corn demand in 2024. The Biden Administration is set to release its primary climate model for SAF subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act in the “very near future”.
While recent reports have stated that the model may be restrictive compared to corn-ethanol industry expectations, the subsidies will undoubtedly drive higher demand for corn-ethanol.
CORN FUTURES CONTANGO IS STEEPENING
Corn Futures term structure has become noticeably steeper over the past three months. Premium for dated contracts have increased. Specifically, corn delivery in later part of 2024 and early 2025 command higher premium.
MARKET METRICS ARE TURNING LESS BEARISH FOR CORN
CME Corn Options positions are currently skewed bullish with a put/call ratio of 0.84. Over the past week, bullish positioning has increased with large call option buildup on June (OZCN4) and December contracts (OZCZ4).
Asset managers have also started to reduce net short positioning on CME Corn Futures since positioning reached its all-time low mid-February.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
South America corn supply remains uncertain even as the US delivers a record harvest. Corn prices will remain bearish in the near term amid ample supplies. Longer term, supply shocks and rising demand has the potential to send corn prices higher. This is evident from steepening contango in CME Corn Futures.
To express the view on corn prices increasing towards the end of the year, traders can establish a calendar spread comprising of short position in September 2024 futures (ZCU2024) and a long position in March 2025 futures (ZCH2025). CME corn futures offer deep liquidity even for contracts in 2025 allowing such calendar spreads to be executed efficiently.
A hypothetical trade setup comprising of the calendar spread consisting of short ZCU2024 and long ZCH2025 also offers margin benefits. The calendar spread position is margin efficient with the entire position requiring margin of just USD 350 as of 15/April/2024.
This position not only benefits from the supply trend but also the seasonal trend in corn prices. Corn prices tend to rise from October through February due to seasonal factors. Between April to September, prices tend to decline. This hypothetical spread is supported by both trends.
• Entry: 1.06185 (ZCH2025/ZCU2024 = 485/456.75 as of 12/April)
• Target: 1.076
• Stop Loss: 1.052
• Profit at Target: USD 323 (Target price = 1.33% higher than Entry => Profit = 1.33% x notional = 1.33% x (485 x Contract Size) = 1.33% x (485 x 5000/100))
• Loss at Stop Loss: USD 225 (Stop level = 0.93% below entry => Loss = 0.93% x notional)
• Reward to Risk: 1.44x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
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Big Levels on Big TechBig technology stocks have moved sideways for the last month. Now there could be some important levels for names like Nvidia as investors digest today’s higher-than-expected inflation report.
The main pattern on today’s chart is the March 11 low of $841.66. This level has provided support since the chip giant’s peak on March 8. (It’s also a weekly low.) Closing below it could make traders think about a test of the post-earnings gap on February 22.
MACD has also been falling since mid-March. That could suggest direction has been turning more negative.
At least two other AI-themed stocks may face similar predicaments.
First, NASDAQ:SMCI Super Micro Computer formed a tight range above its March 20 low and a falling trendline. Traders may next eye the February 20 low of $692.50 as potential support.
Second, NASDAQ:AMD Advanced Micro Devices has pushed toward its low from February 21. Traders may next eye around $149, the high in late December and early January before the stock broke out to new record territory.
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📈 Bullish Perspective on BTC: On a Higher Time Frame Analysis!
Despite recent market jitters and bearish sentiments stemming from a significant drop, I remain bullish on Bitcoin, particularly in a higher time frame analysis. The recent downturn may seem daunting, but it's crucial to recognize that such fluctuations are often part of Bitcoin's volatile nature, especially in the midst of its ongoing bull market trajectory and the upcoming Halving.
In this analysis, I've employed the Fixed Range Volume Profile tool, which is readily available on TradingView for free. By pulling the fixed range volume profile from the inception of the triangle formation to the current price, several key insights have emerged.
Firstly, it's noteworthy that price found robust support at the Value Area Low (VaL) of $64,550 at the start of April. Subsequently, we witnessed a temporary rejection from the Value Area High (VAH) of $72,440 on Monday, April 8th. As for now, price is hovering below the previous day's open of $69,360.
A possible scenario I'm considering involves a potential retracement towards the 0.5 Fibonacci level and the base of the triangle. Notably, at this juncture, we encounter another significant level of confluence: the Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP). The red line within the FRVP denotes the Point of Control (POC), situated within the $67,000-$66,800 range. This area holds the potential to serve as a support zone.
Maintaining an overarching bullish sentiment, it's essential to acknowledge the imminent halving event and the ensuing price fluctuations it may entail. As long as we remain entrenched within the confines of the triangle without flipping it as resistance, alongside holding the POC, red line, and the base of the triangle as support, we can anticipate higher price trajectories.
However, it's prudent to exercise caution and monitor closely the $68,000 area, which coincides with the monthly Volume Weighted Average Price (MVWAP).
In terms of actionable trading strategies, I'm eyeing long positions for shorter time frames (STF) around $68,450 as a POC of the last drop/$67,000 area at the base of the triangle in case of another drop, with a cautious approach after reclaiming. For higher time frame (HTF) longs, I'm considering entry at $65,550 as a Naked POC made on April 4th. Conversely, shorts could be considered for shorter time frames (STF) at the $71,300-$71,700 area and for higher time frames (HTF) at the all-time high if signs of weakness manifest as a failed action.
*STF trades should be monitored closely, taking profit within the first reasonable sign of weakness!
In conclusion, while short-term fluctuations may rattle market participants, a broader perspective reveals a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, underscored by technical analyses and market dynamics.
**Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice!
TSMC Secures Historic $11.6 Billion U.S. InvestmentIn a groundbreaking move to bolster domestic semiconductor manufacturing, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. ( BCBA:TSMC ) has secured a monumental $11.6 billion investment from the United States. The initiative, spearheaded by President Joe Biden, underscores a strategic effort to fortify America's position in critical technology production.
Under the terms of the agreement announced by the U.S. government, BCBA:TSMC is set to receive $6.6 billion in grants and up to $5 billion in loans to facilitate the construction of a third chip manufacturing facility in Arizona. This investment is poised to unleash a cascade of economic activity, with TSMC's total investments at the three Arizona plants projected to exceed $65 billion.
The newly announced factory, slated to utilize next-generation 2-nanometer process technology, is anticipated to become operational before the end of the decade. U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo emphasized the significance of these advancements, particularly in driving emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and fortifying national security capabilities.
Raimondo remarked, "For the first time ever, we will be making at scale the most advanced semiconductor chips on the planet here in the United States of America, with American workers." This milestone underscores a pivotal moment in the Biden administration's push to revitalize the U.S. semiconductor industry, as outlined in the 2022 Chips and Science Act.
TSMC's commitment to expanding its manufacturing footprint in the U.S. aligns with a broader trend of major semiconductor companies repositioning their operations to American soil. Intel Corp. and Samsung Electronics Co. have also inked substantial agreements under the Chips Act, signaling a seismic shift in global semiconductor production dynamics.
The significance of TSMC's investment extends beyond economic implications, carrying political weight as well. With Arizona emerging as a pivotal battleground state, the infusion of jobs and investment from TSMC's projects aligns with President Biden's vision of revitalizing the American economy and securing reelection support.
Moreover, the BCBA:TSMC grant includes provisions for workforce training and is expected to generate 6,000 high-tech manufacturing jobs, alongside over 20,000 construction jobs. This influx of employment opportunities underscores the transformative impact of the semiconductor industry on local economies.
While the road ahead may present challenges, including navigating labor disputes and market uncertainties, TSMC's commitment to its Arizona projects underscores a long-term vision for technological innovation and economic growth. As the company enters a due-diligence period before finalizing agreements, the promise of a revitalized semiconductor industry on American soil looms large on the horizon.
Technically, TSM stock is in the consolidation zone after accumulating liquidity might spike to a new Resistance level.
The TradingView Digest - April 8thHey everyone! Welcome back to the TradingView Weekly Digest. In today’s edition, we’re highlighting the top ideas from our community, which includes a write-up on Tesla, an informative post about Keltner channels and Bollinger bands, a hot script on trailing stop management, and all the latest headlines, earnings, and economic events.
We hope you find this week's edition exciting and engaging. Let's dive in! 😀
💡 Tesla Stock Down 30% This Year. What Happened to the EV King? - by TradingView
The electric-car maker is in dire need of charging after losing more than $260 billion this year and turning Elon Musk into the biggest loser among the world’s wealthiest. Tesla stepped into 2024 as the world’s largest EV seller with a valuation of more than $780 billion. None of that is true today.
💡 Keltner Channels vs Bollinger Bands - by FXOpen
If you're a trader, you likely know that indicators are valuable tools for identifying trends and determining entry and exit points. Two popular indicators are Keltner Channels and Bollinger Bands. Both help measure volatility, but which one is better? In this article, we'll delve into the differences between the two, explain their components, and discuss which one is best.
🔝 Top Stories
📰 U.S. March Nonfarm Payrolls +303K; Unemployment Rate 3.8%
📰 Johnson & Johnson to Buy Shockwave Medical in $13.1 Billion Deal
📰 Gold Shines Above $2,300, Ends Another Week At Record High
📰 Solar Eclipse On April 8 Could Give Whopping $1.5 Billion Boost To Businesses
📰 New users flock to Ethereum while long-term holders are less active than ever
💵 Earnings highlights from the previous week:
💲 Levi Strauss (LEVI) Q1 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates
💲 BlackBerry reports surprise profit on demand for cybersecurity services
💲 Conagra (CAG) Q3 Earnings Beat, Organic Sales Decline Y/Y
💲 Lamb Weston (LW) Q3 Earnings Lag Estimates, Guidance Lowered
💲 Greenbrier 2Q Revenue Declines But Beats Wall Street's Forecast
💡 Nvidia - Entering a Bear Phase! - by basictradingtv
For more than 6 years, Nvidia stock has been trading in a long-term rising channel formation. The last retest of support occurred in 2021, followed by a +650% rally to the upside. As of now, Nvidia stock is retesting the upper resistance of the channel, and we might see a short-term correction towards the downside to retest the previous all-time high.
💡 Don't Get Duped by the RSI - by ParabolicP
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a common technical analysis tool used by traders to gauge whether an asset is overbought (priced too high) or oversold (priced too low). It analyzes price movements over a specific period (often 14 days) and displays a score between 0 and 100. Generally, an RSI above 70 suggests an overbought condition, while an RSI below 30 suggests an oversold condition.
📆 Economic Calendar
⚡️ April 10th (United States) — Core Inflation Rate YoY
⚡️ April 10th (United States) — Inflation Rate YoY
⚡️ April 10th (United States) — FOMC Minutes
⚡️ April 12th (United States) — Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel
⚡️ April 16th (China) — GDP Growth Rate YoY
🔥 What's New?
✅ New chart type — Volume candles
🌟 Script of the Week
📜 Trailing Management - by Zeiierman
This tool provides an automated and visual approach to trailing stop management, aiding in systematic decision-making for trade entries and exits based on risk-reward metrics.
💭 Our Weekly Thought:
“The trend is your friend.”
We hope you found this helpful. Please share your feedback, remarks, or suggestions with us in the comments below.
💖 TradingView Team
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Bitcoin: The Halving Range.Bitcoin appears to be in a consolidation (see converging lines on chart) as the halving event nears. Makes sense, especially since events like this tend to be "buy the rumor, sell the news". There is no way to know how Bitcoin will react going into the halving because there are many factors in play, often too many to effectively act upon. Many like to resort to history, but history does NOT repeat itself exactly the same way every time. The illustration on this chart shows the scenario that I am anticipating for the coming week.
As of now, IF 68,850 is compromised, a new swing trade buy signal will be in effect on this time frame. IF the consolidation stays intact, then it is not likely to go very far (71K area resistance). This means a better way to participate is day trade with low expectations. I repeat that a lot because MOST of the time, there is little to no opportunities on the larger time frames that make sense in terms of the associated RISK. Sure you can enter at any price and it MAY go your way, but how much risk are you taking? Big wins with high risk = unsustainable account performance (exchanges, forex dealers, prop firms and casinos LOVE this idea).
Another way to capitalize on this consolidation is to WAIT for supports to be tested such as the 66K and 64K levels. If 64K is compromised, a test of 60K becomes much more likely which would extend the range of the consolidation. Upon testing such levels, waiting for confirmation before entering is key because markets are HIGHLY random and there is no guarantee supports hold.
Technical analysis helps to develop a plan, evaluate risk and manage expectations. It is NOT a method to forecast the future as many believe. Anything can happen, any time, all it takes is an unexpected piece of news. The information I provide here is to help you operate under a realistic set of expectations as defined by historical MARKET structure, NOT how I feel or think. Realize that this is actually a game of information. Whoever has the best information will profit from the majority of participants who "believe" they are acting on useful information.
As a short term oriented trader, I am not trying to be "right". I am trying to gain insight into areas of price behavior that may offer a greater probability of a positive outcome. In other words looking for price action clues that point to repetitive behaviors that I can capitalize on.
Let that sink in before consuming another Youtube video featuring a rocket ship.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
Tesla Stock Down 30% This Year. What Happened to the EV King?The electric-car maker is in dire need of charging after losing more than $260 billion this year and turning Elon Musk into the biggest loser among the world’s wealthiest.
Table of Contents
» How It Started vs How It’s Going
» Nothing Magnificent About It
» Competition Revs Up
» Teslas Pile Up on Weak Demand
» If You’re Having a Bad Day, Read This
📍 How It Started vs How It’s Going
Tesla (ticker: TSLA ) kicked off the year as the big tech highflyer we all know. With a valuation of more than $780 billion, the electric-car maker stepped into 2024 as the world’s largest EV seller. Deliveries were standing at record highs and chief executive Elon Musk was the world’s richest person and was looking at a gargantuan $55 billion pay day.
All of that was taken away in one way or another. Chinese automaker BYD (ticker: 1211 ) dethroned the EV kingpin by selling 526,000 EVs for the fourth quarter of 2023, more than Tesla’s 484,000. Even as Tesla reclaimed the top spot in the January through March quarter, it flagged a worrying signal that its business was shrinking.
As for Elon Musk, he lost a court battle over his lofty $55 billion pay package when a judge called it “an unfathomable sum.” Shortly before that, he handed the World’s Richest title to Amazon founder Jeff Bezos .
📍 Nothing Magnificent About It
Chugging through first-quarter twists and turns, Tesla drifted away from the highly exclusive club called the “Magnificent Seven.” The group of companies with a snappy nickname is made up of Microsoft (ticker: MSFT ), Nvidia (ticker: NVDA ), Facebook parent Meta (ticker: META ), Google parent Alphabet (ticker: GOOGL ), Amazon (ticker: AMZN ), Apple (ticker: AAPL ), and outsider-in-the-making Tesla (ticker: TSLA ).
How did that happen and why is Tesla at risk of falling out of the Magnificent Seven? Tesla’s valuation — which is notoriously volatile and hard to pinpoint — saw a massive 30% drop over the first three months of 2024, turning the stock into the worst performer in the S&P 500. More than $260 billion has been washed out since early January, giving the EV maker a price tag of around $520 billion today. Zoom further out, and you see Tesla peaked during the Reddit stocks meme-trading era of 2021 when shares hit an all-time high of $417. Back then, Tesla became the first car manufacturer to break into the $1 trillion club.
Tesla stock has lost about a third of its valuation this year. Source: TradingView
The drastic fall spotlights a stark difference between Tesla and the rest of the Magnificent Seven big shots. The other tech giants are at the top of well-developed yet competitive industries. Take for example Microsoft — the software mainstay has created for itself a competitive moat in the enterprise and retail software business.
Tesla, on the other hand, is the trailblazer for the EV revolution but charged up rivals are shifting gears, threatening to soak up market share fast.
📍 Competition Revs Up
Chinese smartphone maker Xiaomi (ticker: 1810 ) last week unveiled a slick-looking, tech-rich electric ride. The model is called SU7 and it clocked up 10,000 reservations in the first 4 minutes after launch. Then it got to 89,000 in 24 hours. The successful launch bumped Xiaomi’s market cap by $4 billion to around $50 billion, or 10 times less than Tesla. The SU7, however, is priced lower than a high-end Model 3.
Tesla has more rivals to outsell, among them BYD (ticker: 1211 ) and the more-niche player Rivian (ticker: RIVN ). Rivian is an EV startup that marked a 70% increase in sales for the first quarter. The number, however, is a tiny 13,980 units delivered.
📍 Teslas Pile Up on Weak Demand
Tesla’s year went from bad to worse this week when it announced it had delivered 386,810 EVs in the first quarter. The number was about 20,000 below the most bearish forecast on Wall Street. It was also 9% lower than last year’s first quarter, indicating that the company’s business is shrinking.
More importantly, Tesla produced 433,371 units, leaving about 46,000 waiting to be purchased by customers. The difference between production and deliveries meant that unsold models are piling up. A demand issue maybe?
📍 If You’re Having a Bad Day, Read This
In all that chaos, Elon Musk emerged as the world’s worst moneymaker, taking a huge blow to his net worth so far this year. According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index , the eccentric engineer is down $45 billion to roughly $180 billion, taking the number one spot on the loser board.
Elon Musk owns a 20.5% stake in Tesla worth about $120 billion, according to a December 31 filing . The stake consists of 411 million shares of common stock and 303 million stock options with a strike price of $26 a pop.
The majority of Musk’s wealth is concentrated in his EV company, but he also owns private social media platform X, former Twitter, and space exploration company SpaceX, among other businesses.
📍 What’s Your Take?
Are you buying the dip in Tesla stock? Or are you waiting for a deeper drop before scooping up some shares for yourself? Let us know your thoughts on Tesla’s future in the comments below!
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💖 TradingView Team
Nvidia - Entering a bear market!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Nvidia.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
For more than 6 years, Nvidia stock has been trading in a long term rising channel formation. We had the last retest of support in 2021 which was then followed by a +650% rally towards the upside. As we are speaking Nvidia stock is retesting the upper resistance of the channel and we might see a short term correction towards the downside to retest the previous all time high.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
The TradingView Digest - April 3rdHey there! Welcome back to the TradingView Weekly Digest. We are thrilled to announce the successful conclusion of our first-ever paper trading competition - The Leap ! With immense joy, we share that over 90,000 traders enthusiastically participated, executing a staggering 2,700,000 trades and securing an impressive $119 million in profits. Heartiest congratulations to all the winners, and our sincere gratitude to every participant for their overwhelming love and support.
In this edition, we’re excited to spotlight the top posts and ideas from our community. This includes an informative post on using stop-loss orders , a write-up on trading symmetrical triangle patterns , a hot script on volumes , and all the latest headlines , earnings , and economic events .
We hope you find this week's edition exciting and engaging. And don't forget to participate in our Bitcoin halving contest for a chance to win our exclusive T-shirt. Without further ado, let's dive right in! 😀
💡 How to Use Stop Loss Orders in Trading? - by TradingView
In trading, reducing risks is oftentimes all that matters to achieving success. One of the essential tools to protect your investments from steep or unexpected losses is the stop loss order. Understanding how to use stop loss orders can unlock your path to profitability by allowing you to balance your risk and reward ratio.
💡 A Comprehensive Guide to Fibonacci Retracements - by XForceGlobal
Fibonacci Retracements are a set of ratios defined by the mathematically important Fibonacci sequence. This allows traders to identify key levels of support and resistance for price action. The Fibonacci retracement tool, although widely used by many traders, is almost always not correctly used by new traders.
💡 Bitcoin Halving Contest: Time’s Ticking, But When’s It Kicking? - by TradingView
Buckle up, crypto enthusiasts! The Bitcoin Halving is on the horizon, and the countdown has begun. But here’s the twist - every Bitcoin clock out there is telling a different time for when block 840,000 will hit the scene. It’s like they’re all watching different episodes of the same thrilling show. 🍿
🔝 Top Stories
📰 Japan Manufacturers Sentiment Deteriorated for First Time in Four Quarters
📰 AMC Shares Drop 14% to Hover Near Record Lows After Filing to Sell $250M of Stock
📰 Reddit Stock Can’t Get Off the Volatility Train After Another Double-Digit Drop
📰 Bitcoin Halving Countdown: BTC Skyrockets to $71,000 Amidst Market Anticipation
📰 SEC May Delay Ethereum ETF Until December: Bitwise
💵 Earnings highlights from the previous week:
💲 McCormick (MKC) Q1 Earnings & Sales Top Estimates, Grow Y/Y
💲 GameStop Q4 Earnings Highlights: Retail Favorite Stock Plunges After Revenue, EPS Miss
💲 Compared to Estimates, Carnival (CCL) Q1 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics
💲 Jefferies Financial Group Fiscal Q1 Earnings, Revenue Rise; Dividend Maintained
💲 Walgreens Sees Steep Loss After Major Write-Down of Clinic Operator VillageMD
💡 How To Trade A Symmetrical Triangle Break-Out - by TVM_MENA
A symmetrical triangle is a geometric formation found in technical analysis, often appearing during periods of market consolidation. It's characterized by converging trendlines, typically drawn by connecting a series of lower highs and higher lows. This pattern reflects a balance between buyers and sellers, signaling indecision in the market regarding the future price direction.
💡 Bitcoin Heading Below 20K is A Good Thing! - by WicktatorFX/
This one is a bit of a hack but follows on from my video on how to set 'Stop Losses' on TradingView for Connected Brokers. To set a trailing stop loss, you need to open your broker account, place the trade there, and it will then be reflected on the TradingView interface.
📆 Economic Calendar
⚡️ April 3rd (United States) — Fed Chair Powell Speech
⚡️ April 5th (Canada) — Unemployment Rate
⚡️ April 5th (United States) — Non Farm Payrolls
⚡️ April 5th (United States) — Unemployment Rate
🔥 What's New
✅ New launch: predict market activity with unerring accuracy
✅ Scan your watchlists in Stock, ETF, and Crypto Coins screeners
🌟 Script of the Week
📜 Periodic Activity Tracker - by LuxAlgo
This tool visualizes cumulative buy and sell volume for user-defined periods, offering insights into volume dynamics with customizable options.
💭 Our Weekly Thought:
“ Weak traders focus on results - Strong traders focus on process. ”
We hope you found this helpful. Please share your feedback, remarks, or suggestions with us in the comments below.
💖 TradingView Team
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Last Leg To The Finish Line - UCHFHere I have USD/CHF on the Daily Chart!
Now we've been following USD/CHF since it created its NEW LOW back in Dec. '23.
This LOW I believe sparked the beginning of an Elliot Wave and currently we are looking at what seems to be a possible LAST LEG of this Impulse Move!
Price has currently created a HIGHER HIGH @ .90721, so we will be looking for Price to either:
1) Finish its BULLISH run to the Fib-Ext Ranged Target @ ( .91572 - .93426 )
-OR-
2) Look to make another Retracement to the ( .88726 - .88418 ) B/C Zone for another Potential Entry to surf the Wave the rest of the Way!
*RSI is showing we are currently Over-Bought, so this leads me to believe we could see price descend to our Zone.
Fundamentally-
-The BIG contributor to this scenario is with the SNB being the FIRST this year to cut their Interest Rates making the CHF look less attractive to investors
&
The FED holding rates gives the USD a Leg UP!
*Forecasters for Next Weeks News (Apr. 1 - Apr. 5) are leaning towards Bullish Outcomes so that could help feed the Bullish Mindset of traders for USD to start the new month off but ANYTHING can happen so BE MINDFUL OF NEWS!!
BITCOIN - Heading Below 20K...It's A Good Thing!We know this is an unpopular opinion BUT technically, Bitcoin is ripe for a move to the downside.
On the monthly chart, we can see that we've completed a major wave 1 impulse and now we're in a wave 2 correction. We're looking for one more move down to complete this wave 2.
See monthly chart below:
It looks as if we're making a 535 correction and therefore, we believe we'll be moving towards the 20k region to complete wave C.
Please note that we are still bullish on Bitcoin, as well as Crypto. We're looking for any buying opportunities to hold for the long term!
We'll be loading up for the long term anywhere below 20k region.
What do you guys think?
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
See our previous setups below:
Live stream - Step into the heart of real-time action with our lBe part of the action at 9:15 AM! We achieved our goal 85.11% of 2023 in the first 30 minutes from the market open. Dive in and seize the opportunity! Join our live trading session where we'll trade in the live stream until we reach our goal!