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The TradingView Digest - March 5thHey everyone! Welcome back to the TradingView Weekly Digest. In today’s edition, we’re highlighting the top posts from our community, which includes a video tutorial on “The Leap” - our first ever paper trading competition, an informative post about Nvidia’s euphoric rise, and all the latest headlines, earnings, and economic events. 💡🎥 The Leap - Win up to $10,000 - by TradingView/ We’re spinning up the first-of-its-kind trading competition and you’re all welcome to join! Traders, speculators, active investors and even the FX gurus on Instagram and the “live like me” trading influencers — this one’s for you all. Show us what you’re made of in our first-ever paper trading competition, The Leap. The Top 5 get to walk away with real cash. From first to fifth, prizes are as follows: $10,000, $5,000, $3,000, $2,000 and $1,000. 💡🎥 Why Central Banks are Buying Gold - by konhow While many of us celebrate the stock markets reaching new highs, central banks worldwide are actively purchasing gold and institutions are hedging into treasuries to secure yields. It's important to note that interest rates are determined by central banks, while yields are determined by investors. 📰 Top Stories Elon Musk vs. Everyone: The New Fight in AI How the U.S. economy could slide into a Japan-like 'lost decade' Nvidia Stock Soars on Meta AI Deal Lockheed Martin Gets $663.1 Million Contract Modification from U.S. Department of Defense Breaking: BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Overtakes the Largest Silver Trust with MUN:10B AuM 💵 Earnings highlights from the previous week: Dell Stock Pops 20% on Earnings Beat, Strong Guidance & Hot AI Servers Demand Tidewater Q4 Earnings, Revenue Rise; Full-Year Revenue Guidance Reiterated MasTec Q4 Adjusted Earnings Fall, Revenue Rises Pactiv Evergreen Q4 Adjusted EPS Increases, Revenue Drops FuboTV Reports Q4 Loss, Tops Revenue Estimates 💡 Nvidia’s Formidable Rise - by TradingView Intense demand for Nvidia's AI chips increased the company's value to $2 trillion, with half of this growth occurring in less than four months. This demand significantly boosted Nvidia's stock price, making it one of the top three largest companies in America, right behind Apple and Microsoft. 💡 How to Trade Gaps - by ShaneBlankenship There are several ways to trade gaps, but first, there should be a solid understanding of what gaps are and how they manifest. Markets aren't difficult to read if we have some simple methods to observe them that adhere to the principles of movement. A gap is the sudden supply/demand imbalance that arises from contraction and manifests as expansion. 🌟 Script of the Week 📜 Daily Chess Puzzles - by Lux Algo This script delivers a new one-move chess puzzle to the chart every day. 💭 Our Weekly Thought: “Not being stressed from a loss is the real flex.” We hope you found this helpful. Please share your feedback, comments, or suggestions with us in the comments below. TradingView Team 📣 Want to be among the first to know all the news? Give us a follow!
NASDAQ:QQQ
by TradingView
9
Gold- New ATH this month? Analysis and SpeculationsI've written many posts and made videos expressing my belief that XauUsd will reach a new all-time high (ATH) this year. Now, the question is, will it start with all-time highs this month? In my opinion, it will. But let's begin with why I'm quite certain that Gold will reach an ATH this year. It's relatively straightforward when you examine the monthly chart. You don't need to be a technical analyst to see that the trend is clearly upward. We witnessed a major false break to the downside at the end of 2022, and since then, despite normal corrections, the price has consistently made higher lows. The monthly candle that just started broke above the technical resistance from 2070. Of course, anything is possible, but in my view, the chances of a long-term reversal are pretty low now. To clarify, I'm referring to a reversal in the long term, not just corrections. Now, regarding the next all-time high this month, I'll speculate a bit. Looking at the same monthly chart, the reversal from November 2022 had 1600 pips, representing a rise of 10%, the second reversal from March 2023 had 2000 pips, which represents 11%, and the third and last monthly reversal candle had 1900 pips, which is also 11%. So, we can speculate that this month's candle will also rise by around 10%. Calculating this at the current price, we have around 2000 pips. With the month starting at 2040, we reach 2240. Moreover, if we consider that the reversal actually started at the bottom of last month's Pin Bar, which is at 1980, and add 2000 pips, we also arrive at 2180, which is also an ATH. In conclusion, while I don't have a crystal ball, I expect an ATH this month. However, more importantly, I WILL NOT SELL INTO THIS RALLY, ONLY BUY ON DIPS. Best of luck! Mihai Iacob
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
66
If Seize the Day was a Company: Nvidia’s Formidable RiseUnhinged demand for Nvidia’s AI chips bumped the company’s valuation to $2 trillion, adding half of that in less than four months. Read how it happened. Table of Contents Genesis Compiling Speedrun Benchmark Spillover Overclock Much? Rage Quit More Players Exit Wild Rivals Appeared! Runtime Genesis It’s a crisp, sunny morning in 1993. You’re at your local diner in Silicon Valley, casually sipping your coffee and waiting for your meal. At the table next to you, three engineers are cranking on caffeine and dreaming up a gig that would end up changing not only their lives, but also usher in a new era of computing. It’s the three founders of a company called Nvidia (ticker: NVDA ). A business-savvy 30-year-old Oregon graduate Jensen Huang, hardware savant Chris Malachowsky and software geek Curtis Priem spun up the business more than 30 years ago. Together, they set up their venture in a bid to bring 3D graphics to the gaming space. Compiling Today, the thriving company is doing much more than that. Nvidia, which traces its humble origins back to a Denny’s diner, is now the backbone of the artificial intelligence revolution. Nvidia was for a long time shoved into the deeper corners of the gaming space and was barely known to the public. For most of its existence, it’s been making graphics cards, which are used by gamers, crypto miners, plain PC users and professionals from various industries. The company’s booming business line right now is AI chips—hardware pieces essential for training large language models, the type that underpins systems like OpenAI’s ChatGPT.  AI chips have also underpinned another side of Nvidia—they’ve touched off a monster rally in its share price. Enough to catapult its valuation to the Top 3 of America’s biggest companies , right after iPhone maker Apple and software heavyweight Microsoft. Speedrun It took just about 24 years for Nvidia to step into the exclusive $1 trillion club, having started trading as a public company in 1999 at a $625 million valuation. Then in the span of just four months—November 2023 through February 2024—Nvidia added its second trillion, largely thanks to its timely expansion from its flagship products to the powerful AI chips. Now, Nvidia is comfortably sitting in the Top 5 of the world’s largest companies . “A whole new industry is being formed, and that’s driving our growth,” chief executive Jensen Huang told shareholders right after the company published jaw-dropping 265% revenue growth for the final quarter of 2023. The chip darling picked up $22.1 billion in sales, up from $6.05 billion a year ago. Profits swell to more than $12 billion. Source: Stock Analysis Benchmark The earnings release fueled a never-before-seen $277-billion boost to the chip maker's valuation. It was the biggest one-day gain in history of the stock market, surpassing Meta’s recent $204.5 billion pump . On the second day after the December-quarter financials were published, Nvidia went on to soar above $2 trillion in value with shares changing hands at more than $800 a pop. Not only that, but the AI trailblazer’s report jolted markets so much it set off a buying spree on a global scale. Spillover In the US, the broad-based S&P 500 index notched an all-time high, joined in record territory by the Dow Jones Industrial Average. In Japan, the diverse Nikkei index broke out to a fresh record after 34 years of languishing performance. Nvidia’s magnificent rise has propelled Huang’s personal fortune to roughly $70 billion, a reflection of his 86.6 million shares, or 3.6% of the company. Is it time for an attire upgrade away from the black leather jacket? Shares of the company more than tripled in 2023 and pumped over 60% for the first two months of 2024. Jensen Huang wearing his signature leather jacket—an outfit picked by his wife and daughter. Source: nvidianews.nvidia.com Overclock Much? The fundamentals behind the company’s breakneck growth are undoubtedly real. Demand for Nvidia’s most advanced GPUs, called H100s, is so big the chips are being delivered in armored trucks. Each one of them weighs about 290 lbs (130 kg) and will set you back about $30,000 if you’re lucky to get one. With that said, supply isn’t too loose with Nvidia holding about 80% of that market. What’s more, a new, more powerful H200 chip will be hitting the market in the second quarter of this year. So what does this mean for the unstoppable rally? Analysts are quick to say that as long as Nvidia maintains its tight grip over supply, outweighing demand should continue to drive the up-only narrative. Presently, Nvidia has the capacity to develop about 1.2 million AI-focused chips a year, far insufficient to meet the insatiable demand. To illustrate, Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg popped on Instagram to brag about his plans of securing 350,000 units of that good H100 stuff by the end of 2024. Besides the Facebook parent, Nvidia’s biggest customers are Microsoft, Google and ChatGPT owner OpenAI. Rage Quit The stampede by investors rushing to buy up stock wouldn’t be complete if it weren’t for the naysayers and doom-and-gloom forecasters. You’d be surprised to see who is on that list of permabears, slamming the chip maker and getting their short positions ready to fire. Or already fired. Following Nvidia’s post-earnings explosion, short sellers were left nursing paper losses in excess of $3 billion. Staring at giant drawdowns might sting just as badly as missing out the ride. Disruptive-tech investor Cathie Wood, CEO of investment firm ARK, said in 2023 that Nvidia was “ priced ahead of the curve .” By the end of the year, Wood had offloaded a stake worth more than $100 million. Estimations point that this early leave may be equal to more than $500 million in missed-out profits. There are other notable names in the investment space who got rid of—or heavily trimmed—their Nvidia shares by the end of last year. (Hedge funds and other investment managers who oversee at least $100 million are required to disclose their holdings in public companies each quarter through a form called 13F.) More Players Exit In its 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, George Soros’s family office Soros Capital had completely exited Nvidia in the third quarter, selling shares worth $4.9 million. Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller’s family office held 875,000 shares of Nvidia going into 2023’s third quarter. By the end of the fourth quarter, that hefty stash had been reduced by roughly 40%. Druckenmiller still owns some $300 million in Nvidia shares and even scooped up call options with a notional value of $242 million. The sellers’ argument wraps around the heavily cyclical nature of chip demand. While in good times there’s euphoria and chip companies triumph, they could also be prone to setbacks once the tide turns. A fresh example from Nvidia’s recent performance is the 60% drop in its share price in the time span April through September 2022. Nvidia's share price endured a 60% drop between April and September 2022. Wild Rivals Appeared! Competitors from the hardware corner of the economy don’t sit idle while Nvidia goes on an all-out expansion mission. Advanced Micro Devices (ticker: AMD ) is already selling chips similar to the H100s and projects revenue to land at $3.5 billion in 2024. If that number is met, or even doubles, it still will be a blip compared with Nvidia’s $100 billion full-year revenue Wall Street expects. SoftBank-backed Arm Holdings (ticker: ARM ), whose stock is just as volatile , is in the AI race too. So is Intel (ticker: INTC ) — the US tech mainstay makes and sells chips that power generative AI software. Nvidia, meanwhile, is busy taking steps to try and cement its dominance in the AI space. It’s already in talks with big tech giants such as Microsoft, Amazon and Google over developing custom chips. Meanwhile, all three are manufacturing their own chips. Runtime The big question lingering on everyone’s mind is when will that dizzying AI boom come to a halt or at least pause for breath? Nvidia’s formidable rally, fueled by the rush for graphics processors, is the very definition of what seizing the day means. What’s a reason that may extend this run? One reason is that the company keeps adding blockbuster earnings quarter in and quarter out. A second one—Nvidia will need to find a way to work together with tech giants seeking to cut into the AI business. And thirdly, all that effort should eventually pay off by laying out the infrastructure that will foster the much-anticipated AI-driven productivity gain.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by TradingView
21
SasanSeifi 💁‍♂Potential for Significant Growth in the Long TermAs you can see in the chart, the price of CAKE has experienced significant growth after a period of decline and volatility. The price bounced back from the $1 support zone and has since experienced another minor increase after a pullback to the $2.50 demand level. The price is currently trading at $3.20. By examining the behavior of candles in the long-term time frame, we can expect the following for the future of this currency: If the $2.50 price range is maintained, we can expect further growth to the $4.50/5 liquidity zone and a new high above $4 (HIGH). The above image shows the possible long-term trend of CAKE and the desired targets. This trend indicates the significant growth potential of this currency in the long term. The important support zones are $2.50 and $1.70. This is not financial advice. Always do your research before making any investment decisions. Sure, if you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask. I'm here to help!✌ if you found my analysis helpful, I would appreciate it if you could show your support by liking and commenting. Thank you!🙌
Long
by SasanSeifi
28
XAUUSD:29/2 Today’s Analysis and StrategyOn Thursday, the U.S. dollar index gave up yesterday's gains at 103.93, but bulls continued to put pressure on gold ahead of the release of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), and gold prices have yet to break out of range trading. The dovish Federal Reserve released a timetable for interest rate cuts, suggesting that interest rate cuts will begin in the second half of the year. The U.S. slightly revised down fourth-quarter economic growth, providing support for gold prices, but gains were limited as traders focused on key economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials on the timetable for interest rate cuts. This trading day will release the U.S. PCE data that the Federal Reserve focuses on in January. The market expects core PCE to increase by 0.4% month-on-month, compared with the previous value of 0.2%. Core PCE is expected to increase by 2.8% year-on-year, compared with the previous value of 2.9%. In addition, this trading day also Changes in the number of people filing for initial unemployment benefits in the United States will be released. The market expects it to be 210,000, compared with the previous value of 201,000. Investors need to pay attention to changes in market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Additionally, a fresh decline in U.S. Treasury yields prevented bearish traders from making big bets on gold prices and helped limit the downside. Compared with forecasts for a rate cut in March at the beginning of the year, recent Fed comments and hot inflation data have pushed bets on the Fed's first rate cut to June. Higher interest rates tend to dampen investment confidence in gold. Gold technical aspect Daily resistance 2037-40, lower support 2000-1966 Four-hour resistance 2037-40, lower support 2015 ✅Gold operation suggestions: Gold is constantly oscillating. Today, the upper resistance is around 2037-41. Relying on this position, continue to go short once. The lower support is around 2020. During the day, rely on this range to sell high and buy low. You can participate multiple times. SELL:near 2041 SELL:near 2015 BUY:near 2000 Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ActuaryJ
45
Calling Out All Traders: Paper Trading Competition Drops SoonWe’re spinning up the first-of-its-kind trading competition and you’re all welcome to join! Traders, speculators, active investors and even the FX gurus on Instagram and the “live like me” trading influencers — this one’s for you all. Show us what you’re made of in our first-ever paper trading competition The Leap . Before we give you the full spill, let’s get to the lowdown: The Top 5 get to walk away with real cash . From first to fifth, prizes are as follows: $10,000, $5,000, $3,000, $2,000 and $1,000. Didn’t get to the Top 5? You still get a prize : one free month of TradingView if your account is in profit. Trading kicks off March 1 and wraps up March 31. Registrations are available to paid users until March 15, 2024. Now the bigger picture. Are you going to get outtraded by a Reddit degen? There’s only one way to find out. Test your trading strategy if you’re a newcomer or show off your skills if you’re a market wizard — The Leap paper trading competition is risk free and available to all who have a paid account with TradingView. Join, trade on our The Leap paper trading account and see if you can make it to the top. So what’s up for grabs? We’ve leveled the playing field by introducing four overarching assets you can trade. EURUSD – for the currency specialists, this FX pair is sure to stir up your portfolio (and emotions) due to its elevated volatility and high volume. SPX500 – the S&P 500 is America’s broad index, packaged with the biggest public companies, including iPhone maker Apple and EV giant Tesla. BTCUSD – crypto bros, assemble! The OG token made it into our exclusive selection thanks to its, well, ability to make or break trading careers. XAUUSD – gold bugs, it’s your time to shine. Get a hold of the yellow metal if you believe it’s the one asset to carry you into the Top 5. Or short it if you don’t. Each of these assets is a representation of its own asset class and gives you exposure to a specific market. Broadly, these four cover the most traded corners of the financial markets and you can trade them individually or even simultaneously. Ready, set, go! Earn your bragging rights – finish first and go boast on socials, getting your well-deserved praise as TradingView’s top trader in our first-ever paper trading competition! Now the links: Join The Leap paper trading competition and start warming up. Read our T&Cs to get familiar with the formalities around The Leap. Check our FAQ's here Sign up for The Leap today and show everyone (and yourself) how trading is done!
by TradingView
64
The TradingView Digest - February 27thThe TradingView Digest - February 27th Hey everyone! Welcome back to the TradingView Weekly Digest. In today’s edition, we’re highlighting the top posts from our community, which includes a video tutorial on TradingView’s paper trading feature, an informative post about Bitcoin halving, a post on finding trade setups, and all the latest headlines, earnings, and economic events. 💡🎥 How-To: Use the TradingView Paper Trading feature - by TradingView TradingView's Paper Trading isn't just for practice; it's a detailed educational platform that closely simulates the real trading environment, all without the risk of losing money. This feature is carefully crafted to mimic actual market scenarios, offering users a realistic preview of how their trading plans might fare.📖🧾 💡🎥 Understanding Momentum to find the Best Setups - by TradeTheStructure In the video, I discuss how I analyze momentum using MACDs and 5-minute/1-minute charts for day trading. This approach helps me filter out the best setups, positioning myself strategically in the market and within the right trading zones. The key concepts covered in this video include momentum, price action, candle analysis, and multi-timeframe analysis. 📰 Top Stories Nvidia Market Cap Hits $2 Trillion During Post-Earnings Rally Google Halts Gemini's Image-Generation Over Bias Does Bitcoin Halving Still Matter in 2024? Home Buyers Are Back in the Market. They're Shrugging Off Higher Prices and Mortgage Rates Riot Platforms boosted BTC output by 19% in 2023, mines 6,626 Bitcoin 💵 Earnings highlights from the previous week: Warner Bros. Discovery's Q4 Net Loss Narrows, Revenue Declines Berkshire Hathaway reports record cash as earnings pop in Q4 Block's Q4 Earnings Surge American Software (AMSWA) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates Mercedes' (MBGAF) Q4 Results, Buyback & EV Strategy in Focus 💡 What Is Bitcoin Halving? Here's All You Need to Know - by TradingView Halving, a milestone event in the crypto space, occurs approximately every four years, reducing Bitcoin's mining rewards every 210,000 blocks. Satoshi Nakamoto, the individual or group that created Bitcoin, set a fixed limit of 21 million coins, ensuring that the total amount of Bitcoin can never go above that number. 💡 Bad News for USD Longs? - by FPMarkets According to the US Dollar Index, dollar longs are under pressure. Despite technically still exhibiting an uptrend, there are signs of emerging technical weakness. Since topping at 104.97 in mid-February, just shy of the resistance at 105.04, price action has tunneled through support at 104.15 (now marked as resistance), in addition to channel support extended from the low of 100.62. 🌟 Script of the Week 📜 Percent Rank Histogram - by VanHe1sing This script visually displays the percentage of historical data points that are less than or equal to the current value for multiple financial instruments. 💭 Our Weekly Thought: “Good traders try to avoid losing money. Great traders accept they will lose money.” We hope you found this helpful. Please share your feedback, comments, or suggestions with us in the comments below. TradingView Team 📣 Want to be among the first to know all the news? Give us a follow!
by TradingView
4
Microsoft Replicating 1987 SPX ChartSince Microsoft bought ChatGPT back in March 2023, the price of NASDAQ:MSFT stock has gone on to replicate the same pattern as the 1987 S&P500 stock market rally. Does it mean anything all by itself? No. It still needs a catalyst for the drop to happen. The 1987 stock market crash had many triggers and catalysts and the drop was a sharp 40% from August 28th, 1987 to October 19th 1987. What would cause a sharp 40% drop in NASDAQ:MSFT ? You all could type in your guess in a reply to this chart. It could come about under a variety of situations, but it would take an act of Government regulation or a major sea-change in laws or the business environment. When you see people posting "overlays" of the market to past debacles, you will find almost NONE of them work. Last year in January I posted a pattern where NASDAQ:TSLA was mimicking the fundamental and technical price pattern that NYSE:MCD McDonalds had from over a decade ago when it fell 75% on a rough patch for its business. It turned out to be identical and NASDAQ:TSLA rallied over 150% last year just exactly the same as happened to $MCD. I'll post the link down below for you to view. The overlay here between NASDAQ:MSFT and the 1987 SP:SPX is pretty amazing but we have no catalysts to make it drop. Stay tuned on any weakness and look for cheap hedges (long term puts out to July-Oct-Dec for this year). Don't spend more than 1% of an account to hedge a position, but if you hedge it correctly you can protect against a large decline without much cost to a portfolio. Here's hoping this pattern doesn't 'pan-out' because it would be or could be very disruptive to the markets. Wishing you all health and success in the markets this year and thanks to TradingView for all of the great tools for doing research! Cheers, Tim Friday, February 23, 2024 8:59PM EST
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by timwest
25
The AI Crypto Boom: Is This the Beginning of a New Era?2023 has witnessed a significant surge in AI-related cryptocurrencies . This boom can be partly attributed to the explosive growth of NVIDIA (NVDA) stock, a leader in the graphics processing unit (GPU) industry, which are used to train AI models. Factors Driving the Growth NVDA's Rise: NVDA's price has been on a tear, forming a bullish manipulative pattern. This bullish trend has inspired investors to have similar expectations for AI-related coins. AMD's Accumulation-Manipulation-Distribution Pattern: AMD is not a competitor of NVDA in this context, but rather an example of a successful "accumulation - manipulation - breakout" pattern. This pattern is characterized by a period of accumulation, where investors slowly buy up a coin, followed by a period of manipulation, where the price is artificially inflated, and finally a breakout, where the price rises sharply due to increased demand. Effect on Other Coins: The bullish trend in NVDA and the successful breakout of AMD's accumulation-manipulation-breakout pattern have led to a surge in AI-related coins such as RNDR, THETA, NEAR, and FET. A Look at Promising Coins: RNDR: Render Network utilizes a decentralized network for 3D graphics and video rendering. The rise of the metaverse could potentially drive demand for RNDR's services. THETA: Theta Labs aims to revolutionize video streaming by providing a decentralized content delivery network. The growth of streaming content could make THETA an attractive investment. NEAR: NEAR Protocol is a smart contract platform focused on scalability and speed. The growth of decentralized applications (dApps) could make NEAR a valuable choice. FET: Fetch.ai is developing a decentralized network for exchanging data and machine learning models. The growth of AI could increase demand for FET's services. Important Considerations: The cryptocurrency market is volatile and unpredictable. It is crucial to conduct your own research before investing in any coin. This article is not financial advice. Only invest what you can afford to lose. Conclusion AI-related cryptocurrencies are experiencing impressive growth. While it is impossible to say for certain whether this is the beginning of a new era, the possibilities of AI in the crypto space are worth considering. However, it is important to conduct thorough research and understand the associated risks before investing.
RLong
by Yaroslav_Krasko
17
Bitcoin to continue outshining Gold In 2024Bitcoin (“BTC”) – the millennial gold - continues to outshine traditional gold. BTC prices have climbed higher after the listing of spot ETFs. A wider bull rally in the cryptocurrency markets is also underway. ETH touched its highest level since 2022. The total cryptocurrency market cap is 14% higher YTD. A diverging outlook between BTC and Gold is emerging. After reaching all-time-high in December 2023, gold prices have pulled back this year. Stronger dollar fuelled by delayed rate cut expectations are taking shine off gold. Halving event and bullishness from spot ETFs make for shining prospects ahead for BTC. In sharp contrast, macro backdrop dragging gold down leading to potentially lacklustre price performance. Collectively, this makes for a compelling spread positioning comprising long BTC and short Gold. BTC RALLY HAS MORE STEAM BTC is 12% higher YTD. It has marched higher with solid momentum post the spot ETF launch. Multiple factors point to further gains in store. For one, sustained net inflows to spot ETFs signal strong demand from US investors for BTC. Volumes in spot ETFs reached its highest level since its launch on 21 February 2024. Participation was broad across several investors with 32,000 individual trades (sixty times the average), indicating widespread demand across investors. BTC halving is due in a little less than a month, fuelling additional bullish sentiment. Lower supply of newly mined coins is expected to drive prices even higher. BTC is currently trading 15% below its production cost, calculated by Capriole Investment using power consumption figures from the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index . This index has served as a strong price floor over several years. Miners are unlikely to sell their BTC holdings below their cost of production, consequently reducing selling pressure below this key support level. While BTC production cost acts as an indicative support level, BTC may continue to trade below this level. For one, miners have built up BTC holdings over the past year, which they can opt to sell for a substantial profit below the new production cost. The surge in BTC over 2023 has started to spill over to other digital assets. A broader digital asset rally is under play with ETH retesting its highest level since 2022 this month. The potential for further appreciation in BTC is high if markets are currently at the cusp of a wider crypto rally. Finally, traders have been avoiding substantial short positions. As Bitfinex highlighted , the short-squeeze ratio is lower this year, compared to previous years which suggests large whale investors have not been taking substantial short positions. However, institutional positioning in CME BTC futures paints a contrasting picture. Asset managers have built up record long positioning while leveraged funds have built up record short positioning on CME BTC futures. DELAYED RATE CUTS TAKING SHINE OFF GOLD Delayed rate cut expectations have led to a resurgence in the dollar causing a pull-back in gold prices. Gold faces a double whammy in terms of asset rotation as both equities and the dollar remain strong. RECESSION IS OFF THE CARDS Mint Finance described gold performance during recessions and soft-landings in a previous paper . In summary, while gold prices rally sharply during recessions, performance is flat during soft landings, a situation where inflation subsides, and economic growth remains resilient. Over the past two soft landings, gold delivered flat returns. While a soft landing is yet to be realized as both inflation and rate outlook for 2024 remains uncertain, a recession in the US has become a remote possibility. In fact, the Consumer Board has abandoned its long-running call for a recession in the US. Consumer Board’s (“CB”) Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) signals turning points in business cycles and near term economic outlook. Since July 2022, the LEI signalled a US recession with the LEI in decline. LEI fell to 102.7 in January 2024, its lowest level since 2020, yet CB has stated that it no longer anticipates a recession in the US. CB still anticipates a slowdown this year with growth expected to be near zero in Q2 and Q3. Yet several LEI components have turned positive over the last six months, including equity performance. An overly hawkish Fed makes the much expected Fed pivot less likely, for now, but the strength in the broader economy across businesses and consumers makes a slowdown unlikely. FUND FLOWS – TALE OF TWO ETFs Fund flows for BTC and Gold ETFs also suggest a vastly diverging picture. Investors have responded exceedingly well to spot ETFs. Cumulative flows for spot ETFs have exceeded USD 3 billion in a month. For reference, it took GLD - the first Gold ETF - two years to get to this point. Though, as a counterpoint, the ETF market and money supply are much larger now compared to when GLD was launched. Net fund flows for BTC ETFs were close to zero for the first few days after launch as GBTC outflows shifted towards lower-cost ETFs. Since February, inflows to spot ETFs (excluding GBTC) have accelerated while GBTC outflows have slowed. The result is sharp growth in net inflows suggesting strong and positive investor response to spot ETFs. Data Source: TradingView and ETFDB While BTC Spot ETFs has been enjoying consistent net inflows, Gold ETFs have been awash with fund withdrawals and redemptions. Data Source: TradingView Contrasting cumulative net flows into BTC ETFs & Gold ETFs shows a stark divergence in expectations ahead for the price of these two similar assets. Data Source: TradingView and ETFDB Outflows from gold ETF’s represent asset rotation out of gold with some of those assets going towards equities and bonds. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP An unfavorable macro outlook is weighing on gold while BTC faces a positive outlook with tailwinds likely to push prices higher. A position combining a long position in BTC and a short position in Gold benefits from both rising BTC and falling gold prices. This spread does not compromise on performance as past rallies have yielded similar performance in the BTC/Gold ratio. BTC/Gold spread has not been an effective hedge as the ratio does not perform better during downturns. A hypothetical spread trade consists of long four lots of Micro Bitcoin futures (MBTH2024) and short one lot of Micro Gold futures (MGCJ2024). This position requires margin of 4 x USD 1,120 (=USD 4,480) on the BTC leg and USD 830 on the gold leg: • Entry: 25.32 • Target: 30.60 • Stop Loss: 21.30 • Profit at Target: USD 4,310 • Loss at Stop: USD 3,285 • Reward/Risk: 1.3x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME:BTC1!Long
by mintdotfinance
6
How or why did you start trading?I've spent nearly 10 years on Tradingview. But after doing this since the age of 15; it's been interesting and fun (don't worry, this is not me retiring) I just wanted to share some of the key points, the ups and the downs, the challenges and the rewards. For those of you who don't follow or know me, my trading started after a school trip from Wales (in the UK) to New York's Wall Street. We went to learn about the Wall Street crash and visited the exchange. Needless to say I was hooked! My early years of trading, I would take the pushbike to the bank and trade stocks from the Times newspaper, it was always over the phone via the bank broker, I had to do this via my mother as I wasn't old enough for a stock account through my bank. These were large cap stocks, things like Vodaphone, Cadbury's and ones most people could identify with. These were never big trades just the experience I guess. How I funded this was, I dropped out of school not long after that trip to New York, no qualifications, just the idea of being a trader and taking over my father's engineering company. I would work as an engineer, still live with my parents, and buy stocks. It wasn't until a few years later I got into penny stocks. I guess for me - seeing the Wolf of Wall Street movie, it was a bit like that: you would buy stocks for fractions of a penny and watch them pump. Some traded better than others but still had very little knowledge; trading wasn't as accessible as it is today. I guess looking back this was very similar to what I see in crypto today, especially with alt coins. about 5 years into the journey, I ended up getting into Forex where I guess I have stayed ever since. This was fast-paced compared to stocks and the markets being open 24 hours a day 5 days a week. I would take long term trades such as the difference between the interest rate of the New Zealand Dollar vs the Great British Pound for example. It just felt like free money. (those were the days). From there I also started trading Gold, Oil & SPX. Running in parallel, I ended up in the tech space; investing in cyber security around financial markets. I keep little souvenirs of the journey like this card from buying my first Ferrari. It reminds me of why it was interesting in the first place! I think you need this as a trader, I have written several articles here on Tradingview about the psychology and loneliness of being a trader. Two of my favourites are the Simpsons one and the other side of the trade. Doing things you wouldn't usually do is part of creating your inner trader. I was fortunate enough to get into Bitcoin early doors, right place, right time as they say. From 2012 onwards been educating, mentoring and advising people and what a journey that's been. I have met some great people along the way. This brings me back to the upside, downside and, of course, the psychology and emotions of trading. Trading can be a very lonely place to be if you have nobody to share the wins with in real-time; it's hard when you manage losses and keep them to yourself. Of course it's very, very rewarding when all is going to plan! I can't emphasise the importance of a community, it's actually one of the reasons for posting this post. With access to charts and brokers directly on your phone, it's an incredible change from the time I first started. But it can also bring a lot of hidden dangers, it's a unique type of lifestyle. I understand not everyone trades for a living, it's a hobby or a way to earn some extra money. But the ups and downs of this can have a strain on mental health. Fear and greed is a real thing, not just a sentiment indicator. We are human after all. It's so easy to fall into a false sense of security after a couple of nice wins. But it's even easier to go off the rails after a handful of losses. Some really cool factors for me when it comes to trading, would have to include doing one of the Tradingview shows with Stefan back last year www.tradingview.com and discussed the fact that a notebook I had made for my 11 year son had been published as a book. Never thought I would become an author after dropping out of school. Part of the reason I stream here and write educational posts is I love to keep the trading game live and current. Watching Bitcoin unfold and become institutional has been such a pleasure and amazing to watch it transition. It's been a great way to interact with people from all around the world. I guess the point is, the power of the internet and a platform like Tradingview; allows us to share such stories with the world. What I have learnt, is that new traders come to the market with a certain expectation. Often, people assume they need more indicators, more screens, more news and more instruments. What you realise over time, is you can make a living from a handful of instruments and a little bit of logic. I'll kick it off by saying what I don't like about trading is how lonely and isolated it can be. What I do like about it is the freedom it brings. I would love to hear your story, why you started trading, what you like or don't like about it and anything you feel like sharing! Anyways; I just wanted to share this little post and get some discussions going. Have a great weekend and I'll see you on the next stream. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
FX:XAUUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
27
Big SPX Butterfly Will Probably Dictate Trend Direction. It does not feel like it, but bears have finally gotten to the point where we have the most value betting on a big reversal. But with that comes the fact we're also very close to the levels where bears would probably be best to forego bearishness for a considerable amount of time. Let's start with the obvious objection to being a bear now, we're making new highs. Which in indices has historically meant the rally has a strong chance of going on. Shorting into the new high from the 2020 drop would not have been any fun. However, it's also a fact that in many tops there's a nominal spike out of the high before the real turn. This was the case the 2007 high and has been something we could have known to look for from as early as Feb of 2023. Click below to read more on those. Indices are at long term resistance levels. The 2022 sell off came from a 4.23 extension of the 2000 - 2008 crash range. This was a unique event in our times. The last time this big version of a short signal fired was in 1929. There was a strong reaction to the 4.23 possible reversal level. We're above it again now, but we've just covered the spike outs thing. Read more about that here. If we draw a fib from the high to the low of the March 2020 drop we're now at the 2.61. Previous high was around the 2.20. So this has been implied as a possible big resistance level since the 2020 bull breakout. Then completing in the area of this resistance we have the big butterfly pattern. Coming in with a 2.20 right where we are now (And I think 2.20 is a good spot for trading a butterfly). This is a butterfly built up over a couple years. it has multiple swings in it. Each one of those had to be exactly the size it was for the 2.20 to be here agreeing with all the other resistance levels. Odds of that happening in a random walk are not big. So it's worth paying attention to the butterfly. A successful butterfly would see this strong looking bullish action dwarfed by huge bear candles. An early shock big move. A shallow bounce and then relentless selling. In the last leg of a harmonic (D) leg, it's expected for super strong bullish moves. But if the harmonic is successful - the bear move eclipses the bull move. The successful harmonic could be the trigger that starts the downtrend spoken of after a spike out in 2023. ------ Bears here have their ideal confluence of setups for a short in the 5100 zone. Some extra tolerance for spike outs is needed but the range for where bear signals are valid is really small now, offering high RR. But if this strong confluence of bear signals fails - we're probably going to see an aggressive uptrend. The failure of a bat and butterfly pattern both would imply strong upside moves. Even in a scenario where the market was close to making a high there'd be an explosive upside move to the next resistance (Filling the crab pattern). I think at this point in time bears have everything they could ask for in a short setup. Now's a great time to take attempts at swing shorts. But now is also the time to get really definitive about the levels shorts fail. If the trend continues, it's likely to only get stronger. Trends don't weaken. They get stronger and stronger and die in a burst of glory. If this isn't the burst of glory- you don't wanna be short during it.
SP:SPXShort
by holeyprofit
46
Bad News for USD Longs?According to the US Dollar Index, dollar longs are under pressure. Despite still technically exhibiting an uptrend, there are signs of technical weakness emerging. Since topping at 104.97 in mid-February (just shy of resistance at 105.04), price action has tunnelled through support at 104.15 (now marked resistance) in addition to channel support, extended from the low of 100.62. As you can see from the chart, buyers and sellers are now squaring off at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) around 103.72 and fast approaching neighbouring support at 103.62. Adding to the bearish vibe, we can see that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) crossed under trendline support, taken from the low of 29.59, and also pushed through the 50.00 centreline, a move emphasising negative momentum. Should sellers change gears here, therefore, and overthrow current supports, further underperformance could be on the table for the USD, targeting the 50-day SMA at 103.09 and support coming in at 102.92.
TVC:DXYShort
by FPMarkets
34
Bitcoin: 52K High New Wave Count.Bitcoin has pushed the 50K resistance area and peaked in the 52Ks. The recent bearish pin bar has signaled a swing trade short which is not following through (no surprise there). Over the coming week it is within reason to see a retest of the 48K area support. This is the price location where a high probability swing trade long setup can appear and where I am preparing for a signal. In my previous articles, you will notice that I had a "B?" in the 46 to 48K resistance area. That was what I was waiting for the market to confirm, but the market never confirmed. We got a resistance break and run to 52K instead. A move like this calls for a new wave count which you can see on my chart now. This illustrates an important point: you cannot get married to wave counts because the market does whatever IT wants to do. One drawback to wave counts is you have to relabel after the fact. They only serve as a basic guide that the market will either confirm or NOT. The new wave count presents an impulse wave with 3 legs complete, with a potential 4th wave developing. This implies there is one more wave higher which can lead price into the 55K or 60K areas over the next few weeks (IF it follows through). This impulse would actually be the 5th wave (which I thought was completed at the previous test of 50K). This also means once 5 waves are complete, the probability of a broader corrective wave to follow becomes greater. At this point, the plan is simple: WAIT for retrace to 48K area support and look for buy signal on larger time frames. IF this opportunity unfolds I will point it out to my members along with the other parameters such as stop and take profit prices. The broader Wave C (monthly) that I have been pointing out in recent articles is also a LOW probability scenario unless or until the 40K support is broken. Again the key to this game is knowing how to adjust to new information, NOT getting stuck on opinions. The market changes and we must change our expectations with it if you want to be aligned with the probabilities. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
59
The TradingView Digest - February 20thHey everyone! Welcome back to the TradingView Weekly Digest. In today’s edition, we’re highlighting the top posts from our community, which includes an informative post about Apple’s valuation, a strategy for trading opening range breakout, a hot script on Ichimoku Oscillator, and all the latest headlines, earnings, and economic events. 💡 Apple’s Valuation When we look at Apple historically, the valuation is higher than average, with lower than average sales growth. Compare today's prices to the low prices of 2013, 2016, and 2018/2019, and you can see that you could buy Apple at 2.13, 2.20, and 2.68 times sales, with sales growing at sharply higher rates compared to now, where sales are growing at the slowest rate and reaching a peak valuation at 8.02 times sales. By timwest 💡 Timely Opening Range Breakout Strategy Open Range Breakout (ORB) is a simple strategy that day traders use in relatively low-volatility markets. The Opening Range usually refers to the highest and lowest prices within the first 15 to 60 minutes of the market opening. These levels then serve as your resistance and support, guiding your trading plan for the day. By Zeiierman 📰 Top Stories Coinbase Stock Pops 14% on First Quarterly Profit Since 2021 as Trading Picks Up Blackrock’s Bitcoin ETF Holdings Near 110K BTC Why high-yield bond ETFs may deliver 'surprise' outperformance in fixed income in 2024 Microsoft's $3.44B German AI Investment UK Records Biggest Monthly Retail Sales Rise Since April 2021 💵 Earnings highlights from the previous week: Eni Earnings Fall on Lower Energy Prices Alliant Energy's Q4 Earnings Rise, Revenue Falls; 2024 Outlook Maintained Airbus Posts Lower FY23 Net Income; Revenue Grows IAMGOLD Corp reports results for the quarter ended in December Schneider Electric Reports Growth in FY23 Net Income, Revenue 💡🎥 Thoughts and Analysis on US30 What a solid run we have seen until the CPI data! After the US CPI came in hotter than expected, it shocked the market, leading to heavy selling on stock indexes and risk currencies with a flight to safety (USD). Is this merely a buying opportunity, or could it signal a potential momentum change? Watch the video to find out. By Eightcap 🆕 TradingView and Coin Metrics: New Era in Crypto Asset Analysis Coin Metrics, renowned in crypto financial intelligence, has now integrated its dataset into the TradingView platform. Coin Metrics brings robust data on crypto networks, enriching the decisions of traders and investors with accurate information. Through this partnership, over 50 million TradingView users now have access to even more detailed and comprehensive information to analyze crypto assets. By TradingView 🌟 Script of the Week 📜 Ichimoku Oscillator This script utilizes various Ichimoku Cloud features to identify trend and potential entry/exit levels. By LonesomeTheBlue 💭 Our Weekly Thought: “There is never a rush to buy or sell.” We hope you found this helpful. Please share your feedback, comments, or suggestions with us in the comments below. TradingView Team 📣 Want to be among the first to know all the news? Give us a follow!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingView
8
GBP/JPY’s Break & Retest PatternGBP/JPY’s recent price action has formed a bullish Break & Retest pattern – an underrated pattern which represents a structured way to navigate breakouts. Here’s the three key components of GBP/JPY’s Break & Retest pattern: 1. The Breakout: On Tuesday, GBP/JPY made a decisive move higher, breaking above a significant resistance level. 2. The Retest: Following the breakout, prices retraced back to the level of the previously breached resistance. This pullback is a crucial component of the Break & Retest pattern, providing traders with a chance to confirm the legitimacy of the breakout. 3. The Reversal: The confirmation of the Break & Retest pattern came on Thursday when a bullish hammer candle formed. This reversal candle is indicative of the broken resistance now acting as support, aligning perfectly with the principles of the Break & Retest pattern. The market then pushed higher on Friday. GBP/JPY Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Trading the GBP/JPY Break & Retest: Identifying and Anticipating: Traders who had identified the key resistance level in GBP/JPY prior to the breakout were well-positioned to anticipate the development of the Break & Retest pattern. Utilising price alerts would have been particularly beneficial to notify traders of both the breakout and the subsequent retest. Entry Points: The entry point for a bullish scenario involves strategically placing an entry order just above the high of the reversal candle. This ensures that traders enter the market with confirmation of the newfound support. Stop-loss Placement: Proper risk management is crucial. In a bullish scenario like this, a stop loss could be positioned below both the low of the reversal pattern and the broken resistance level, protecting against unexpected downturns. Price Targets: Traders have the flexibility to set a price target based on market structure or risk. With the GBP/JPY Break & Retest, targeting the next key level or support based on market structure, or opting for a price target twice the size of the risk, could be considered. Risk Management: As with any trading strategy, risk management is paramount. Traders engaging with the GBP/JPY Break & Retest pattern should implement proper risk management techniques, including position sizing, staying informed with the economic calendar, and diversifying their trading portfolio. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 84.01% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
by Capitalcom
2
Nvidia Q424 preview – this needs to be on everyone risk radar Whether trading equity, equity indices or even FX, Nvidia’s Q424 earnings (due after-market on 21 Feb) should be firmly on the risk radar. Markets could come alive with movement and traders may need to dynamically react. How the Nvidia share price reacts immediately after its earnings results and CEO Jensen Huang’s guidance could have far-reaching implications - not just for those holding exposures in Nvidia equity CFDs - but for those with open positions in NAS100 and US500, and even risk FX, such as AUD, NZD, and NOK. Nvidia is a true market darling – it hits the sweet spot in A.I revolution, which may not be a completely new theme, but given the sheer rate of change in the evolution market participants still have very low conviction when it comes to forecasting future cash flows. This inability to price certainty only increases the volatility. Looking at consensus expectations on sales, margins, and earnings may not prove to be overly worthwhile, given fundamentals mean little for what is essentially a pure momentum vehicle like Nvidia. It’s the commentary and guidance and the tone of the outlook that inspires investors, notably around its long-term data centre sales. We can explicate how the business is likely tracking from recent earnings numbers from the likes of AMD, SMCI and TSMC, and given the strong trends we’ve seen of late can assume sales are growing at a solid clip. Options structures price big moves on earnings If we look at the options market, the implied or expected move for the day of reporting sits at an impressive -/+11%. That level of implied volatility could indeed be mispriced, but an -/+11% move for a company with a $1.83t market cap would be staggering. When we consider that Nvidia has the fourth largest weight on both the S&P500 and NAS100, commanding a 4% and 5% weighting on each index respectively, an -/+11% move could have significant implications – especially if the move in Nvidia’s share price spreads into other A.I and mega-cap tech names, which it most probably would. Should we see a move in US equity futures it would likely impact the USD and risk FX, such as the AUD, NZD, or NOK. Staying in the options space, we see that Nvidia’s 1-week call options (10% out-of-the-money) currently commands an implied volatility of 100.8%, a clear premium over 1-week put options (with strikes 10% out of the money) at 85%. This is rare, as put option implied vol is typically higher than calls, given the increased relative demand to use put options to hedge against equity drawdown. We also see that 9 of the top 10 most traded options strikes recently (expiring on 23 Feb) are traders buying call options, which just adds to the view that equity traders are positioning portfolios for higher levels and remain incredibly bullish on their near-term prospects. The bottom line – Nvidia’s share price is not being driven by fundamentals – valuation matters little – it is all order flows and momentum. What matters to traders here is that the market expects a huge move on the day of earnings, and this could send ripples through broader markets. This creates opportunity but it also is a risk for traders that needs to be managed – put Nvidia on the risk radar.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by Pepperstone
8
GBP/JPY: Price Corrects from 8.5 Year HighGBP/JPY: Price Corrects from 8.5 Year High According to CNN, the economies of the UK and Japan entered a technical recession last week as data showed a second consecutive quarterly decline in gross domestic product. And if in the UK the economic downturn can be associated with high inflation and the strict policies of the Bank of England, then in Japan the reason may be the population decline (which has been going on for 14 years in a row). At the same time, the GBP/JPY chart shows that last week the rate exceeded 190 yen per pound for the first time since August 2015. However: → the price is at the upper border of the ascending channel (shown in blue); → at the beginning of this week, the price of GBP/JPY is below the 190 yen level – and a false bullish breakout of the psychological level should be regarded as a bearish sign; → the MACD indicator indicates that demand forces are fading. Perhaps market participants are inclined to take profits from longs. Since it is possible that the Japanese authorities are able to announce some decisions aimed at supporting the yen. In this case, one of the immediate targets for the bears may be the level of 186 yen per pound – where the support level (formerly the resistance level) is located, reinforced by the median line of the long-term channel. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
10