Crypto Risk Management: The Most Overlooked EdgeIn the thrilling yet unforgiving world of crypto, profit potential is massive—but so is the risk. Every trader or investor enters the space with dreams of 10x gains, but without a solid risk management strategy, many exit just as fast—with a trail of losses.
Risk management is the art of protecting your capital while giving yourself the best shot at long-term profitability. It’s not just a skill; it’s a survival strategy.
What Are the Risks in Crypto?
Crypto markets are unique—24/7, global, and driven by emotion, hype, and tech disruption. With that come several risk categories:
Market Risk – Volatile price swings can wipe out unprepared traders.
Liquidity Risk – Low-volume coins can be hard to exit during dumps.
Regulatory Risk – Government crackdowns or bans (e.g., Binance or XRP cases).
Security Risk – Hacks, rug pulls, phishing scams, and smart contract bugs.
Operational Risk – Mistakes like sending funds to the wrong address or using faulty bots.
These risks aren’t just theoretical—think of the LUNA/UST collapse or the FTX debacle. Billions were lost due to poor risk management at multiple levels.
🧠 Core Principles of Risk Management
To stay in the game long-term, you need to adopt some fundamental principles:
Preserve capital first, profit later.
Risk small, aim big.
Never risk more than you can afford to lose.
Think in probabilities, not certainties.
Be consistent, not lucky.
Even the best traders lose—but they survive because they manage their downside better than the rest.
🛠️ Tools & Techniques That Can Save Your Portfolio
1. ✅ Position Sizing
Don’t bet your whole stack on one trade. A common approach is to risk 1–2% of your portfolio per trade. That way, even a streak of bad trades won’t destroy your capital.
2. 🛑 Stop-Loss & Take-Profit
Always have predefined stop-loss levels to cut losses, and take-profit targets to lock in gains. Trading without a stop-loss is like driving without brakes.
3. 📊 Diversification
Spread your investments across different sectors (DeFi, AI, Layer 1s, etc.). Don’t rely on one narrative or one coin.
4. ⚖️ Leverage Control
Leverage can amplify gains—and losses. Avoid high leverage unless you’re an experienced trader with a tight plan.
5. 🔁 Portfolio Rebalancing
Adjust your allocations periodically. If one asset balloons in value, rebalance to lock in gains and manage exposure.
6. 💵 Using Stablecoins
Stablecoins like USDT, USDC, or DAI are great for hedging during volatility. Park profits or prepare dry powder for dips.
🧠 Psychological Risk: The Silent Killer
Many traders don’t lose due to bad analysis—they lose to emotions.
FOMO leads to buying tops.
Fear leads to panic selling bottoms.
Revenge trading after losses leads to bigger losses.
Greed blinds you from taking profits.
The key is discipline. Create a plan, follow it, and review your mistakes objectively.
🚫 Common Mistakes to Avoid
Going all-in on one trade or coin
Holding through massive drawdowns hoping for a recovery
Ignoring stop-losses
Overleveraging small positions to “win it all back”
Risk management is about avoiding unnecessary pain, not killing your gains.
🧭 Final Thoughts
The best traders in crypto aren't those who win big once—they're the ones who survive long enough to win over and over. Risk management is your edge in a market that respects no one.
Whether you’re a scalper, swing trader, or long-term HODLer, never forget: capital is your lifeline. Guard it with your strategy, protect it with your plan, and grow it with patience.
✍️ By Green Crypto
Empowering traders with analysis, tools, and education. Stay sharp. Stay profitable.
Strategy!
Do You Know the Difference Between an Indicator and a Strategy?A lot of traders jump into Pine Script or apply a script on TradingView without understanding one key difference:
Indicators and Strategies are not the same — especially when it comes to real-time performance and backtesting.
---
What’s the Key Difference?
Indicators
Indicators are visual tools designed to help you analyze price action in real time . They do not track trade performance or simulate trades automatically.
You can use them to:
- Generate signals
- Stack confluences
- Set custom alerts
- Overlay custom visuals on charts
Best for: Chart analysis, signal confirmation, and manual or semi-automated alerts.
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Strategies
Strategies are built for backtesting . They simulate how your trade logic would have performed historically, using `strategy.entry`, `strategy.exit`, and related functions.
They automatically calculate:
- Hypothetical P&L
- Win/loss ratio
- Drawdowns
Best for: Validating trade logic, optimizing entries and exits, performance tracking.
---
But Here’s the Catch
Many traders assume that once a strategy backtest looks good, it will behave exactly the same in live trading. This assumption can lead to poor decision-making.
❌ Why Forward Testing Isn't Perfect
When you set alerts based on a strategy, you're asking a backtest engine to behave like a live trading engine — and that’s not what it was designed for.
TradingView strategies:
- Only execute on candle close
- Do not simulate intrabar price action
- Do not account for slippage
- Do not reflect real-time market volatility
So:
- Your strategy alert may fire late compared to actual price movement
- Your SL/TP may be hit within a candle, but the strategy won’t know until close
- You may see better backtest results than what happens live
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Takeaway
If you're using strategies with alerts, it’s critical to understand these constraints:
TradingView’s strategy engine is optimized for historical testing, not for real-time execution. It provides insight into the validity of your logic — but it’s not a replacement for a live execution engine.
Best Practice Recommendations:
- Always forward-test on a demo or paper account first
- Monitor how alerts perform in real-time
- Be ready to adjust parameters based on your asset and timeframe
If you need better responsiveness or real-time adaptability, consider using indicators to generate your alerts. Indicators react to price in real time and are often more suitable for live market conditions.
---
Final Note
Some strategies are built with these limitations in mind. They can still be useful in real-time trading as long as you're aware of how they work.
Transparency is key. Backtesting is a guide, not a guarantee.
Trade smart, stay informed.
Feel free to reach out if you have questions or insights to share!
Clear DayTrading strategy video. The "Inside Bar"🔉Sound on!🔉
📣Make sure to watch fullscreen!📣
Thank you as always for watching my videos. I hope that you learned something very educational! Please feel free to like, share, and comment on this post. Remember only risk what you are willing to lose. Trading is very risky but it can change your life!
VISUAL INVESTOR: An Investing Tutorial for EveryoneToday is a wonderful day! I am overwhelmed with positive emotions, like a racer who has crossed the finish line. My first book, The Visual Investor, is out on TradingView. It's written for everyone, from those just starting out in the stock market to experienced investors. You could say you're holding it in your hands now.
The idea for this book came to me a long time ago, thanks to the influence of one person, as well as my invisible teachers: Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett, Charles Munger, Peter Lynch and Mohnish Pabrai. Day after day, I worked on the content of chapters, charts, tables, and drawings to take you from theoretical foundations to applied knowledge that allows you to answer the key questions of any investor: What? When? And how much?
My motivators, namely you, dear subscribers and the TradingView editorial team, also made an invaluable contribution to the creation of this book. Every kind word, constructive criticism and award in the form of “Editors’ Picks” made me happier and helped me to create further.
Why “Visual Investor”? This is my reverence for the technologies we have come to now. The modern investor has incredible opportunities compared to our colleagues, even from the beginning of the 21st century. Access to companies' financial data has become an order of magnitude easier, and their visualization allows for fundamental analysis to be done much faster than before.
Global financial centers are now much closer to investors from different countries, thanks to the development of local regulation, active work of financial institutions and services. All this has expanded the range of investment instruments and formed a new way of life for our savings.
A modern person may not be a passive observer of fluctuations in the purchasing power of his own capital. On the contrary, he can independently make decisions to increase this capacity, using technology and a systematic approach. Unfortunately, unmanaged savings will suffer the unenviable fate of the hundred dollar bill from the beginning of the last century.
This chart shows how the $100 bill has depreciated since 1914 due to inflation. By the beginning of the First World War, the monthly salary of a highly skilled worker or employee could reach exactly this amount. If your super-rich great-great-grandfather buried a chest of these bills, and you found it, you'd probably be furious with him. Because $100 now is like $2 then. “Dear Grandpa, why didn’t you buy something from that list ?” you might say in your heart.
However, we must give credit to our hero, as the propensity to save is a skill that any investor should start with, and something I talk about in the early chapters of my book. As Charles Munger said, “I was a cautious little squirrel who hoarded more nuts than I needed and didn’t climb into my own pile of nuts.”
The book is divided into three parts, allowing you to start with any of them, depending on your current level of knowledge.
Part One
This part will be interesting to anyone who wants to understand why we need investments, what a joint-stock company and a stock exchange are, how the price and its schedule are formed. Duration of study: 3 hours 15 minutes.
Part two
This part will be of interest to anyone who already knows the basics of stock trading but wants to understand the fundamental analysis of a company's business. Duration of study: 5 hours.
Part three
This part will be of interest to anyone who understands the financial statements of companies and wants to build a decision-making system on the stock market based on this knowledge. Duration of study: 11 hours.
I recommend reading the book “Visual Investor” thoughtfully, with pauses to understand each chapter. It is precisely with this measured pace in mind that the estimated duration of study for each block and each article has been calculated. You can move faster if you like. If you devote 1 hour a day to the book, then after 20 days you will be able to master the entire theory. Don't rush to apply the knowledge immediately you've gained in real life. TradingView has great tools for hands-on research, such as the Market Simulator and Paper Trading, that will help you solidify your knowledge without risking your capital. Similarly, civil aviation pilots train on a flight simulator before their first flight. Remember that your knowledge, systematic approach, persistence and a pinch of luck can transform everything around you. But if you still need my support, I'm here. Yours, Capy.
Part One
1. Investing is the ability to say "no" so that you can say "yes"
The reader will learn that investing is a conscious skill of foregoing immediate spending in favor of greater value in the future, based on strategy, patience, and an understanding of the difference between investing and speculation. Duration of study: 15 minutes.
2. Raising initial capital: 4 approaches, of which one is not good
The reader will learn about four ways to form start-up capital for investments, and why borrowed money is the least sensible of them. Duration of study: 10 minutes.
3. The lifestyle of your savings, and why Big Mac?
The reader will learn that investing is a conscious way to preserve and increase the purchasing power of savings, in which the level of potential profit is always proportional to the risk taken. Duration of study: 10 minutes.
4. What is a stock? Let me tell you a story
Using the example of a shoe workshop owner, the reader will learn how companies issue shares to raise capital and expand their business. Duration of study: 15 minutes.
5. Stock Company. Selling something that no one will buy piecemeal
Using the same example, the reader is explained the process of transforming a company into a joint-stock company and conducting an IPO to attract investment. Duration of study: 10 minutes.
6. I dream of entering the stock market. The question is: What for?
The reader learns that going public is a way for a company to make its shares available to a wider range of investors, increase liquidity, and simplify the process of raising capital. Duration of study: 10 minutes.
7. How is the share price formed on the stock exchange? We do it
The reader will learn how the price of a stock is formed on the stock exchange through the mechanism of bids from buyers and sellers, reflecting the balance of supply and demand. Duration of study: 20 minutes.
8. Bid/Offer: The Yin and Yang of Stock Prices
The reader will learn how buy (bid) and sell (offer) orders from the order book on the exchange, determining the mechanism for concluding transactions and the formation of the market price. Duration of study: 20 minutes.
9. Market order or the hunger games of stock trading
The reader will learn that market orders allow shares to be bought or sold immediately without specifying a price, satisfying the current demand or offer at prices available in the order book. Duration of study: 15 minutes.
10. The birth of the chart. The evolution of the tape
The reader will learn how price movement charts are formed from the stock exchange quotes feed and will see historical examples of the evolution of methods for displaying market data. Duration of study: 10 minutes.
11. Japanese Candlesticks: Game of Body and Shadows
The reader will learn how Japanese candlesticks are constructed, including determining the opening, closing, high, and low prices for a selected time interval, as well as the importance of the candlestick body and shadows in analyzing price movements. Duration of study: 20 minutes.
12. A little bit about volumes and the master of all averages
The reader will learn how to analyze trading volumes and use a 252-day moving average to evaluate stock price movements. Duration of study: 10 minutes.
13. My Three Comrades: the Chart, the Screener, and the Watchlist
The reader will learn step-by-step how to use the TradingView platform's chart, screener, and watchlist features to find and track stocks even if he doesn't know the company's ticker. Duration of study: 15 minutes.
14. Two captains of the same ship
The reader will learn how to use fundamental analysis to assess a company's financial strength by adding financial indicators to a chart in TradingView, and why the author prefers this method over technical analysis. Duration of study: 15 minutes.
Part two
15. My crazy partner is Mr. Market!
The reader will learn about the concept of "Mr. Market" introduced by Benjamin Graham, which illustrates the irrationality of market behavior and emphasizes the importance of fundamental analysis in making sound investment decisions. Duration of study: 10 minutes.
16. Picking rules - the Lynch method
The reader will learn about Peter Lynch's investment principles, including the benefits of private investors, the importance of a financial safety net, the need to understand a company's performance before investing, and the importance of analyzing its earnings. Duration of study: 15 minutes.
17. A pill for missed opportunities
The reader will learn how to set up alerts in TradingView to react promptly to changes in stock prices, thereby avoiding missing profitable opportunities to buy or sell. Duration of study: 15 minutes.
18. Man on the shoulders of giants
The reader learns the story of an Indian engineer who, after starting to invest in his 30s, achieved significant success, emphasizing the importance of self-education and inspiration from eminent investors. Duration of study: 10 minutes.
19. Price is what you pay, but value is what you get
The reader will learn about Warren Buffett's approach to investing based on the difference between price and the intrinsic value of a company, and the importance of fundamental analysis in making investment decisions. Duration of study: 10 minutes.
20. Balance sheet: taking the first steps
The reader will learn about the structure of the balance sheet, including the concepts of assets, liabilities, and equity. Duration of study: 30 minutes.
21. Assets I prioritize
The reader will learn which balance sheet items are most important for assessing a company's sales performance, and why the author focuses on cash, accounts receivable, and inventory when analyzing current assets. Duration of study: 20 minutes.
22. A sense of debt
The reader will learn about the structure of liabilities and shareholders' equity on a company's balance sheet, including the differences between short-term and long-term debt, and will understand how to analyze debt burden when assessing a company's financial health. Duration of study: 20 minutes.
23. At the beginning was the Equity
The reader will learn about a company's capital structure, including the concepts of retained earnings and return on investment, and will understand how these items are reflected in the balance sheet. Duration of study: 20 minutes.
24. The income statement: the place where profit lives
The reader will learn about the structure of a company's income statement, including key indicators: revenue, cost, gross and operating profit, as well as the importance of these metrics for assessing the financial condition of the enterprise and their impact on the dynamics of stock prices. Duration of study: 30 minutes.
25. My precious-s-s-s EPS
The reader learns that earnings per share (EPS) is calculated as net income available to common shareholders divided by the number of common shares outstanding, and that diluted EPS considers potential increases in the share count due to employee options and other factors that affect earnings distributions. Duration of study: 20 minutes.
26. What should I look at in the Income statement?
The reader will learn which key income statement metrics — such as revenue, gross profit, operating expenses, debt service expense, net income, and diluted earnings per share (EPS Diluted) — the author believes are most important for assessing a company's financial health. Duration of study: 10 minutes.
27. Cash flow statement or Three great rivers
The reader will learn about the structure of the cash flow statement, which includes three main flows: operating, financial and investing, and will understand how these cash flows affect the financial condition of the company. Duration of study: 20 minutes.
28. Cash flow vibrations
The reader will learn how to analyze a company's operating, investment, and financial cash flows to assess its sustainability, strategy, and ability to effectively manage resources. Duration of study: 20 minutes.
29. Financial ratios: digesting them together
The reader will learn that financial ratios are relations between various financial reporting indicators that allow an objective assessment of the financial condition and value of a company, and will understand how to use key multiples to analyze the investment attractiveness of a business. Duration of study: 25 minutes.
30. What can financial ratios tell us?
The reader will learn about key financial ratios such as Diluted EPS, Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E), Gross Margin, Operating Expense Ratio, Return on Equity (ROE), Days Payable and Days Sales Outstanding, and Inventory to Revenue Ratio, and will understand how to use these metrics to assess a company's financial health and investment attractiveness. Duration of study: 30 minutes.
Part three
31. Price / Earnings: Interpretation #1
The reader will learn how the P/E (price to earnings) ratio helps assess the value of a company by determining how many dollars an investor pays for each dollar of earnings, and will understand why a lower P/E may indicate that a company is undervalued. Duration of study: 25 minutes.
32. Price/Earnings: amazing interpretation #2
The reader will learn an alternative approach to interpreting the P/E ratio by viewing it as the number of years it takes to break even on an investment, assuming the company's earnings are stable. Duration of study: 30 minutes.
33. How to apply an indicator that is only available upon request?
The reader will learn how scripts written in Pine Script work on the TradingView platform and what levels of access there are to them: from completely open to requiring an invitation from the author. The article explains how to request access to an indicator if it is restricted, and what steps to take to add it to a chart once permission is granted. Duration of study: 15 minutes.
34. How to assess the fundamental strength of the company?
The reader will learn about the approach to assessing the financial stability of a company through the aggregation of key financial indicators and multipliers, allowing a visual and quantitative assessment of the dynamics and current state of the business. Duration of study: 30 minutes.
35. How to evaluate the work of company management?
The reader will learn about the approach to assessing the effectiveness of a company's management through the prism of the concept described by Eliyahu Goldratt in his book "The Goal", which focuses on three key indicators: throughput, inventory and operational expenses, and will understand how these indicators affect the financial results of the enterprise. Duration of study: 30 minutes.
36. How to evaluate the state of a company's cash flows?
The reader will learn about the importance of cash flow analysis in assessing a company's financial health, including the interpretation of operating, investing, and financing flows. Duration of study: 25 minutes.
37. How to catch the rainbow by the tail?
The reader will learn how to determine optimal price ranges for buying stocks based on the principles of fundamental analysis and the idea of investing with a margin of safety. Duration of study: 40 minutes.
38. How to convert craziness into results?
The reader will learn how to navigate market volatility, make smart stock selling decisions, and use a fundamental approach to turn emotional market swings into rational investment actions. Duration of study: 35 minutes.
39. How to use Replay to study indicators?
The reader will learn how to use the Market Simulator feature on the TradingView platform to analyze historical data and test indicators, including step-by-step instructions for activating the simulator, selecting the start date, adjusting the playback speed, and interpreting the results when analyzing NVIDIA Corporation stock. Duration of study: 30 minutes.
40. How to explain my decision-making system?
The reader will learn about the author's approach to choosing stocks for investment, which includes an analysis of the fundamental strength of the company, cash flow dynamics, news, P/E multiple and other aspects of the decision-making system. Duration of study: 35 minutes.
41. The most subjective facet of my decision-making system
The reader will learn how news, although difficult to formalize, influences the investment decision-making process and why its interpretation is the most subjective aspect in stock evaluation. Duration of study: 35 minutes.
42. Full instructions for studying the fundamental strength of a company
The reader will learn how to use applied tools to evaluate a company's financial results, visually track their dynamics over time, and analyze the movement of key cash flows, which accelerates the process of selecting companies with strong fundamental indicators. Duration of study: 90 minutes.
43. Full instructions for determining price ranges for opening and closing positions
The reader will learn how to determine optimal price ranges and trade sizes when investing in stocks, based on the principles of value investing and Benjamin Graham's "margin of safety" concept. Duration of study: 120 minutes.
44. 10 tricks for developing discipline or here was Warren
The reader will learn ten practical methods to help investors develop discipline, including using alerts, keeping a trading journal, and developing good habits, and will understand how discipline affects the achievement of investment goals. Duration of study: 40 minutes.
45. The Inside Out Investor
The reader will learn how emotional states such as fear, excitement, and fear of missing out (FOMO) influence investment decisions and will understand how awareness of these emotions helps an investor stick to their chosen strategy and make informed decisions. Duration of study: 20 minutes.
46. Effective inefficiency
The reader will learn about the different approaches to using Stop Losses in investment strategies, their impact on the profit/loss ratio, as well as the concept of market efficiency and strategies in it. Duration of study: 30 minutes.
47. Institute of Intermediation and 24 Coffee Lovers
The reader will learn about the factors that create market inefficiencies, such as delays in the dissemination of information, high volatility, the actions of large players and participant errors, as well as the role of intermediaries - brokers and exchanges - in ensuring the efficiency and convenience of trading in financial markets. Duration of study: 25 minutes.
48. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
The reader will learn about the life of Charles Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, his investment philosophy based on common sense and discipline, as well as his views on the importance of personal relationships and moderation in achieving success. Duration of study: 5 minutes.
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless MindHere you have Charles Thomas Munger, the permanent vice president of one of the most successful companies in the world, Berkshire Hathaway. He was not at the origins of this business, but it was Charles, together with Warren Buffett, who turned a dying enterprise into a star of the world stock market. It didn't take a Master's degree in Business Administration or incredible luck. As Mr. Munger said, to succeed you don't necessarily have to strive to be the smartest, you just have to be not stupid and avoid the standard ways of failure. He worked as a meteorologist, then a lawyer, and finally as someone we know well - an investor who inspired many to take a smart approach to business and their own lives.
“I don’t think you should become president or a billionaire because the odds are too great against you. It is much better to set achievable goals. I didn't set out to become rich, I set out to be independent. I just went a little overboard”, Charles joked. Wake up every morning, work hard, be disciplined and surprisingly, everything will work out very well. This commandment sounds a little archaic in times of rapid rise and easy money. However, for anyone who thinks years and decades ahead, it is difficult to come up with something better.
Speaking to students at his hometown University of Michigan, Mr. Munger said the most important decision you make in life is not your business career, but your marriage. It will do more good or bad for you than anything else. He attached such great importance to human relationships. This correlates strongly with a study of human happiness that has been ongoing for over 85 years under the auspices of Harvard University. The scientists' main conclusion was that everything we build (portfolios, businesses, strategies) is worthless if there is no person in our lives to whom we can say a simple “I'm here”. Or “Thank you”. Or “I love you”.
The healthiest and happiest in old age were not those subjects who earned the most. And those who have maintained good, trusting relationships. Marital. Friendly. Related. And in this light, Charles Munger's words about caution, moderation and common-sense sound quite different. It's not about money. It's about a life that can be lived with the feeling that you have enough. That you don't have to be a hero. That you can just be a reasonable person. Loving. Healthy. Calm.
Perhaps this is the main secret of Mr. Munger's success in the stock market? In the long run, the one who has already won achieves a positive result.
November 28th, 2023, was the last day of the cheerful Charlie's life. There were 34 days left until his 100th birthday.
Institute of Intermediation and 24 Coffee LoversWhen the market is efficient, the most efficient strategy will yield zero financial return for the investor. Therefore, firstly, it is necessary to strive to find inefficiencies in the market itself to apply a strategy that will be effective for it.
What creates market inefficiency? First, there are delays in disseminating important information about the company, such as the approval of a contract with a major customer or an accident at a plant. If current and potential investors do not receive this information immediately, the market becomes inefficient at the time such an event occurs. In other words, objective reality is not considered by market participants. This makes the stock price obsolete.
Secondly, the market becomes inefficient during periods of high volatility. I would describe it this way: when uncertainty hits everyone, emotions become the main force influencing prices. At such times, the market value of a company can change significantly within a single day. Investors have too many different assessments of what is happening to find the necessary balance. Volatility can be triggered by the bankruptcy of a systemically important company (for example, as happened with Lehman Brothers), the outbreak of military action, or a natural disaster.
Third, there is the massive action of large players in a limited market - a "bull in a china shop" situation. A great example is the story of 2021, when the Reddit community drove up the price of GameStop shares, forcing hedge funds to cover their short positions at sky-high prices.
Fourthly, these are ineffective strategies of the market participants themselves. On August 1, 2012, American stock market trading company Knight Capital caused abnormal volatility in more than 100 stocks by sending millions of orders to the exchange over a 45-minute period. For example, Wizzard Software Corporation shares rose from $3.50 to $14.76. This behavior was caused by a bug in the code that Knight Capital used for algorithmic trading.
The combination of these and other factors creates inefficiencies that are exploited by trained traders or investors to make a profit. However, there are market participants who receive their income in any market. They are above the fray and are engaged in supporting and developing the infrastructure itself.
In mathematics, there is a concept called a “zero-sum game”. This is any game where the sum of the possible gains is equal to the sum of the losses. For example, the derivatives market is a perfect embodiment of a zero-sum game. If someone makes a profit on a futures contract, he always has a partner with a similar loss. However, if you dive deeper, you will realize that this is a negative-sum game, since in addition to profit and loss, there are commissions that you pay to the infrastructure: brokers, exchanges, regulators, etc.
To understand the value of these market participants and that you are paying them well, imagine a modern world without them. There is only a company issuing shares and investors in them.
Such a company has its own software, and you connect to it via the Internet to buy or sell shares. The company offers you a quote for buying and selling shares ( bid-ask spread ). The asking price ( ask ) will be influenced by the company's desire to offer a price that will help it not lose control over the company, consider all expected income, dividends, etc. The purchase price ( bid ) will be influenced by the company's desire to preserve the cash received in the capital market, as well as to earn money on its own shares by offering a lower price. In general, in such a situation, you will most likely get a huge difference between the purchase and sale prices - a wide bid-ask spread .
Of course, the company understands that the wider the bid-ask spread , the less interest investors have in participating in such trading. Therefore, it would be advisable to allow investors to participate in the formation of quotes. In other words, a company can open its order book to anyone who wants to participate. Under such conditions, the bid-ask spread will be narrowed by bids from a wide range of investors.
As a result, we will get a situation where each company will have its own order book and its own software to connect to it. From a portfolio investor's perspective, this would be a real nightmare. In such a world, investing in not one, but several companies would require managing multiple applications and accounts for each company at the same time. This will create a demand from investors for one app and one account to manage investments in multiple companies. Such a request will also be supported by the company issuing the shares, as it will allow it to attract investors from other companies. This is where the broker comes in.
Now everything is much better and more convenient. Investors get the opportunity to invest in multiple companies through one account and one application, and companies get investors from each other. However, the stock market will still be segmented, as not all brokers will support cooperation with individual companies, for technical or other reasons. The market will be fragmented among many brokerage companies.
The logical solution would be to create another market participant that would have contracts with each of the companies and universal software for trading their shares. The only thing is that it will be brokers, not investors, who will connect to such a system. You may have already guessed that this is an exchange.
On the one hand, the exchange registers shares of companies, on the other hand, it provides access to trading them through brokers who are its members. Of course, the modern structure of the stock market is more complex: it involves clearing, depository companies, registrars of rights to shares, etc.* The formation of such institutions and their licensing is handled by a regulator, for example, the Securities and Exchange Commission in the United States ( SEC ). As a rule, the regulator is responsible for legislative initiatives in the field of the securities market, licensing of market participants, monitoring violations in the market and supporting its efficiency, protecting investors from unfair manipulation.
*Clearing services are activities to determine, control and fulfill obligations under transactions of financial market participants. Depository services - services for the storage of securities and the recording of rights to them.
Thus, by making a transaction on the exchange, we contribute to the maintenance of this necessary infrastructure. Despite the fashion for decentralization, it is still difficult to imagine how one can ensure speed, convenience and access to a wide range of assets due to the absence of an intermediary institution. The other side of the coin of this institution is infrastructure risk. You can show phenomenal results in the market, but if your broker goes bankrupt, all your efforts will be nullified.
Therefore, before choosing an intermediary, it is useful to conduct a mental survey of the person you will be dealing with. Below you will find different types of intermediaries, which I have arranged according to their distance from the central elements of the infrastructure (exchanges, clearing houses, depositories).
Prime broker
Exchange Membership: mandatory
License: mandatory
Acceptance and accounting of your funds/shares: mandatory
Order execution: mandatory
Clearing and depository services: mandatory
Marginal services: mandatory
Remuneration: commission income from trades, clearing, depository and margin services
This category includes well-known financial houses with history and high capitalization. They are easily verified through lists of exchange members, clearing and depository companies. They provide services not only to individuals, but also to banks, funds and next-level brokers.
Broker
Exchange membership: mandatory
License: mandatory
Acceptance and accounting of your funds/shares: mandatory
Order execution: mandatory
Clearing and depository services: on the prime broker side
Margin services: on the prime broker side or own
Remuneration: commission income from trades and margin services
This category includes intermediaries with a focus on order routing. They delegate participation in depository and clearing services to a prime broker. However, such brokers can also be easily verified in the lists of exchange members.
Sub-broker
Exchange Membership: no
License: mandatory
Acceptance and accounting of your funds/shares: mandatory
Order execution: on the broker or prime broker side
Clearing and depository services: on the prime broker side
Margin services: on the broker or prime broker side
Remuneration: commission income from trades
This category includes brokers who have a brokerage license in their country, but do not have membership in foreign exchanges. To provide trading services on these exchanges, they enter into agreements with brokers or prime brokers from another country. They can be easily verified by license on the website of the regulator of the country of registration.
Introducing Broker
Exchange Membership: no
License: optional, depending on the country of regulation
Acceptance and accounting of your funds / shares: no
Order execution: on the side of the sub-broker, broker or prime broker
Clearing and depository services: on the prime broker side
Margin services: on the broker or prime broker side
Remuneration: commission income for the attracted client and/or a share of the commissions paid by them
This category includes companies that are not members of the exchange. Their activities may not require a license, since they do not accept funds from clients, but only assist in opening an account with one of the top-tier brokers. This is a less transparent level, since such an intermediary cannot be verified through the exchange and regulator’s website (unless licensing is required). Therefore, if an intermediary of this level asks you to transfer some money to his account, most likely you are dealing with a fraudster.
All four categories of participants are typical for the stock market. Its advantage over the over-the-counter market is that you can always check the financial instrument on the exchange website, as well as those who provide services for its trading (membership - on the exchange website, license - on the regulator's website).
Pay attention to the country of origin of the broker's license. You will receive maximum protection in the country where you have citizenship. In case of any claims against the broker, communication with the regulator of another country may be difficult.
As for the over-the-counter market, this segment typically trades shares of small-cap companies (not listed on the exchange), complex derivatives and contracts for difference ( CFD ). This is a market where dealers rule, not brokers and exchanges. Unlike a broker, they sell you their open position, often with a lot of leverage. Therefore, trading with a dealer is a priori a more significant risk.
In conclusion, it should be noted that the institution of intermediation plays a key role in the development of the stock market. It arose as a natural need of its participants for concentration of supply and demand, greater speed and security of financial transactions. To get a feel for this, let me tell you a story.
New Amsterdam, 1640s
A warm wind from the Hudson brought the smell of salt and freshly cut wood. The damp logs of the palisade, dug into the ground along the northern boundary of the settlement, smelled of resin and new hopes. Here, on the edge of civilization, where Dutch colonists were reclaiming their homes and future fortunes from the wild forest, everything was built quickly, but with a view to lasting for centuries.
The wooden wall built around the northern border of the town was not only a defense against raids, but also a symbol. A symbol of the border between order and chaos, between the ambitions of European settlers and the freedom of these lands. Over the years, the fortification evolved into a real fortification: by 1653, Peter Stuyvesant, appointed governor of New Netherland by the West India Company, ordered the wall to be reinforced with a palisade. It was now twelve feet high, and armed sentries stood on guard towers.
But even the strongest walls do not last forever. Half a century after their construction, in 1685, a road was built along the powerful palisade. The street received a simple and logical name - Wall Street. It soon became a bustling commercial artery for the growing city. In 1699, when the English authorities had already established themselves here finally, the wall was dismantled. She disappeared, but Wall Street remained.
A century has passed
Now, at the end of the 18th century, there were no walls or guard towers on this street. Instead, a plane tree grew here - a large, spreading one, the only witness to the times when the Dutch still owned this city. Traders, dealers, and sea captains met under its shadow. Opposite the buttonwood tree stood the Tontine Coffee House, a place where not just respectable people gathered, but those who understood that money makes this world go round.
They exchanged securities right on the pavement, negotiated over a cup of steaming coffee, and discussed deals that could change someone's fate. Decisions were made quickly - a word, backed up by a handshake, was enough. It was a time when honor was worth more than gold.
But the world was changing. The volume of trades grew, and chaos demanded rules.
May 17, 1792
That spring day turned out to be decisive. Under the branches of an old buttonwood tree, 24 New York brokers gathered to start a new order. The paper they signed contained only two points: trades are made only between their own, without auctioneers, and the commission is fixed at 0.25%.
The document was short but historic. It was called the Buttonwood Agreement, after the tree under which it was signed.
Here, amid the smell of fresh coffee and ink, the New York Stock Exchange was born.
Soon, deals were being concluded under the new rules. The first papers to be traded were those of The Bank of New York , whose headquarters were just a few steps away at 1 Wall Street. Thus, under the shade of an old tree, the history of Wall Street began. A story that will one day change the whole world.
Buttonwood Agreement. A fresco by an unknown artist who adorns the walls of the New York Stock Exchange.
Behind the DCA Strategy: What It Is and How It WorksWho invented the Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) investment strategy?
The concept of Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) was formalized and popularized by economists and investors throughout the 20th century, particularly with the growth of the U.S. stock market. One of the first to promote this strategy was Benjamin Graham , considered the father of value investing and author of the famous book The Intelligent Investor (published in 1949). Graham highlighted how DCA could help reduce the risk of buying assets at excessively high prices and improve investor discipline.
When and How Did Dollar Cost Averaging Originate?
The concept of DCA began to take shape in the early decades of the 20th century when financial institutions introduced automatic purchase programs for savers. However, it gained popularity among retail investors in the 1950s and 1960s with the rise of mutual funds.
Overview
The core principle of DCA involves investing a fixed amount of money at regular intervals (e.g., every month. This approach allows investors to purchase more units when prices are low and fewer units when prices are high, thereby reducing the impact of market volatility.
Why Was DCA Developed?
The strategy was developed to address key challenges faced by investors, including:
1. Reducing Market Timing Risk
Investing a fixed amount periodically eliminates the need to predict the perfect market entry point, reducing the risk of buying at peaks.
2. Discipline and Financial Planning
DCA helps investors maintain financial discipline, making investments more consistent and predictable.
3. Mitigating Volatility
Spreading trades over a long period reduces the impact of market fluctuations and minimizes the risk of experiencing a significant drop immediately after a large investment.
4. Ease of Implementation
The strategy is simple to apply and does not require constant market monitoring, making it accessible to all types of investors.
Types of DCA
Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) is an investment strategy that can be implemented in two main ways:
Time-Based DCA → Entries occur at regular intervals regardless of price.
Price-Based DCA → Entries occur only when the price meets specific criteria.
1. Time-Based DCA
How It Works: The investor buys a fixed amount of an asset at regular intervals (e.g., weekly, monthly). Entries occur regardless of market price.
Example: An investor decides to buy $200 worth of Bitcoin every month, without worrying whether the price has gone up or down.
2. Price-Based DCA
How It Works: Purchases occur only when the price drops below a predefined threshold. The investor sets price levels at which purchases will be executed (e.g., every -5%). This approach is more selective and allows for buying at a “discount” compared to the market trend.
Example: An investor decides to buy $200 worth of Bitcoin only when the price drops by at least 5% compared to the last entry.
Challenges and Limitations
1. DCA May Reduce Profits in Bull Markets
If the market is in an bullish trend, a single trade may be more profitable than spreading purchases over time or price dips.
2. Does Not Fully Remove Loss Risk
DCA helps mitigate volatility but does not protect against long-term bearish trends. If an asset continues to decline for an extended period, positions will accumulate at lower values with no guarantee of recovery.
3. May Be Inefficient for Active Investors
If an investor has the skills to identify better entry points (e.g., using technical or macroeconomic analysis), DCA might be less effective. Those who can spot market opportunities may achieve a better average entry price than an automatic DCA approach.
4. Does Not Take Full Advantage of Price Drops
DCA does not allow aggressive buying during market dips since purchases are fixed at regular intervals. If the market temporarily crashes, an investor with available funds could benefit more by buying larger amounts at that moment.
5. Higher Transaction Costs
Frequent small investments can lead to higher trading fees, which may reduce net returns. This is especially relevant in markets with fixed commissions or high spreads.
6. Risk of Overconfidence and False Security
DCA is often seen as a “fail-proof” strategy, but it is not always effective. If an asset has weak fundamentals or belongs to a declining sector, DCA may only slow down losses rather than ensure future gains.
7. Requires Discipline and Patience
DCA is only effective if applied consistently over a long period. Some investors may lose patience and leave the strategy at the wrong time, especially during market crashes.
The Two-Faced Market: The Truth Behind Trend Reversals!🎭 The Two-Faced Market: The Truth Behind Trend Reversals! 📊🚀
📢 Ever entered a trade thinking you caught the perfect trend , only to get stopped out as the market reversed?
You're not alone. The market has a way of fooling traders—but if you understand its “two-faced” nature, you can stay one step ahead.
🔥 Why Trends Reverse (and How to Catch It Early!)
Most traders believe trends reverse due to "news" or "randomness." But in reality, the market gives signals long before the turn happens. Here’s what to watch for:
🔹 Momentum Divergence: The price makes a new high, but indicators like RSI/MACD don’t.
🔹 Volume Anomaly: The trend continues, but volume dries up—a sign of weakness.
🔹 Failed Breakouts: Price breaks a key level, only to fall back inside—trapping traders.
🔹 Candlestick Clues: Reversal patterns like engulfing candles or wicks rejecting key levels appear.
🚀 Mastering these signals can put you ahead of 90% of traders.
📊 Real Example: XAU/ USD Trend Reversal in Action
🔎 Breakdown of the setup:
✅ Step 1: Identify a trend (through market structure, trendline or moving average).
✅ Step 2: Look for failed breakouts against the trend
✅ Step 3: Look for trend-following setups
🎯 The Market’s Game: Recognizing The Shift
Trends don’t die suddenly—they fade before reversing. The best traders spot the early signs and position before the crowd.
💡 Have you spotted these reversal signs before? Drop a comment with your experience! 👇🔥
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Never Miss An Entry! Layered Crossover Strategy Explained🚀 Over 6000% Profit in 8 Months? Mastering Layered Entries with the Multi Crossover Strategy!
📈 Getting the perfect entry is key to maximizing profit. The Multi Crossover Strategy uses a layered entry system to ensure no opportunity is missed—delivering over 6000% profit in backtests with a 77% win rate on DOGEUSDT (15-minute chart).
🔹 The Layered Entry Approach:
Not all trends are the same. Whether it’s a bottom reversal, a bullish retracement, or a small pullback, setting the right long entry criteria is crucial. This strategy dynamically adapts using three key crossovers:
✅ Stochastic Crossover – The first signal, designed to catch the lowest point of a bullish reversal.
✅ 9 SMA Crossover – If the Stochastic entry is skipped, this crossover captures the move early.
✅ MACD Crossover – If both previous crossovers are missed, MACD serves as the final confirmation to enter before it’s too late.
By layering these crossovers, the strategy increases the chances of entering strong trends while minimizing false signals.
📊 Backtest Results (DOGEUSDT 15M Chart):
📌 Win Rate: 77%
📌 Profit Factor: 3.5
📌 Max Drawdown: 11.81%
📌 Avg Win: 2.2% | Avg Loss: 1.67%
📌 Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1.33
📌 Profit Factor: 3.79
🚀 Can be Fully Automated with CryptoHopper – No manual execution needed! Just set a strategy alert and link to your preffered signal handler, like CryptoHopper.
🔍 Want to see it in action? Check out the strategy here:
Effective inefficiencyStop-Loss. This combination of words sounds like a magic spell for impatient investors. It's really challenging to watch your account get smaller and smaller. That's why people came up with this magic amulet. Go to the market, don't be afraid, just put it on. Let your profits run, but limit your losses - place a Stop-Loss order.
Its design is simple: when the paper loss reaches the amount agreed upon with you in advance, your position will be closed. The paper loss will become real. And here I have a question: “ Does this invention stop the loss? ” It seems that on the contrary - you take it with you. Then it is not a Stop-Loss, but a Take-Loss. This will be more honest, but let's continue with the classic name.
Another thing that always bothered me was that everyone has their own Stop-Loss. For example, if a company shows a loss, I can find out about it from the reports. Its meaning is the same for everyone and does not depend on those who look at it. With Stop-Loss, it's different. As many people as there are Stop-Losses. There is a lot of subjectivity in it.
For adherents of fundamental analysis, all this looks very strange. I cannot agree that I spent time researching a company, became convinced of the strength of its business, and then simply quoted a price at which I would lock in my loss. I don't think Benjamin Graham would approve either. He knew better than anyone that the market loved to show off its madness when it came to stock prices. So Stop-Loss is part of this madness?
Not quite so. There are many strategies that do not rely on fundamental analysis. They live by their own principles, where Stop-Loss plays a key role. Based on its size relative to the expected profit, these strategies can be divided into three types.
Stop-Loss is approximately equal to the expected profit size
This includes high-frequency strategies of traders who make numerous trades during the day. These can be manual or automated operations. Here we are talking about the advantages that a trader seeks to gain, thanks to modern technical means, complex calculations or simply intuition. In such strategies, it is critical to have favorable commission conditions so as not to give up all the profits to maintaining the infrastructure. The size of profit and loss per trade is approximately equal and insignificant in relation to the size of the account. The main expectation of a trader is to make more positive trades than negative ones.
Stop-Loss is several times less than the expected profit
The second type includes strategies based on technical analysis. The number of transactions here is significantly less than in the strategies of the first type. The idea is to open an interesting position that will show enough profit to cover several losses. This could be trading using chart patterns, wave analysis, candlestick analysis. You can also add buyers of classic options here.
Stop-Loss is an order of magnitude greater than the expected profit
The third type includes arbitrage strategies, selling volatility. The idea behind such strategies is to generate a constant, close to fixed, income due to statistically stable patterns or extreme price differences. But there is also a downside to the coin - a significant Stop-Loss size. If the system breaks down, the resulting loss can cover all the earned profit at once. It's like a deposit in a dodgy bank - the interest rate is great, but there's also a risk of bankruptcy.
Reflecting on these three groups, I formulated the following postulate: “ In an efficient market, the most efficient strategies will show a zero financial result with a pre-determined profit to loss ratio ”.
Let's take this postulate apart piece by piece. What does efficient market mean? It is a stock market where most participants instantly receive information about the assets in question and immediately decide to place, cancel or modify their order. In other words, in such a market, there is no lag between the appearance of information and the reaction to it. It should be said that thanks to the development of telecommunications and information technologies, modern stock markets have significantly improved their efficiency and continue to do so.
What is an effective strategy ? This is a strategy that does not bring losses.
Profit to loss ratio is the result of profitable trades divided by the result of losing trades in the chosen strategy, considering commissions.
So, according to the postulate, one can know in advance what this ratio will be for the most effective strategy in an effective market. In this case, the financial result for any such strategy will be zero.
The formula for calculating the profit to loss ratio according to the postulate:
Profit : Loss ratio = %L / (100% - %L)
Where %L is the percentage of losing trades in the strategy.
Below is a graph of the different ratios of the most efficient strategy in an efficient market.
For example, if your strategy has 60% losing trades, then with a profit to loss ratio of 1.5:1, your financial result will be zero. In this example, to start making money, you need to either reduce the percentage of losing trades (<60%) with a ratio of 1.5:1, or increase the ratio (>1.5), while maintaining the percentage of losing trades (60%). With such improvements, your point will be below the orange line - this is the inefficient market space. In this zone, it is not about your strategy becoming more efficient, you have simply found inefficiencies in the market itself.
Any point above the efficient market line is an inefficient strategy . It is the opposite of an effective strategy, meaning it results in an overall loss. Moreover, an inefficient strategy in an efficient market makes the market itself inefficient , which creates profitable opportunities for efficient strategies in an inefficient market. It sounds complicated, but these words contain an important meaning - if someone loses, then someone will definitely find.
Thus, there is an efficient market line, a zone of efficient strategies in an inefficient market, and a zone of inefficient strategies. In reality, if we mark a point on this chart at a certain time interval, we will get rather a cloud of points, which can be located anywhere and, for example, cross the efficient market line and both zones at the same time. This is due to the constant changes that occur in the market. It is an entity that evolves together with all participants. What was effective suddenly becomes ineffective and vice versa.
For this reason, I formulated another postulate: “ Any market participant strives for the effectiveness of his strategy, and the market strives for its own effectiveness, and when this is achieved, the financial result of the strategy will become zero ”.
In other words, the efficient market line has a strong gravity that, like a magnet, attracts everything that is above and below it. However, I doubt that absolute efficiency will be achieved in the near future. This requires that all market participants have equally fast access to information and respond to it effectively. Moreover, many traders and investors, including myself, have a strong interest in the market being inefficient. Just like we want gravity to be strong enough that we don't fly off into space from our couches, but gentle enough that we can visit the refrigerator. This limits or delays the transfer of information to each other.
Returning to the topic of Stop-Loss, one should pay attention to another pattern that follows from the postulates of market efficiency. Below, on the graph (red line), you can see how much the loss to profit ratio changes depending on the percentage of losing trades in the strategy.
For me, the values located on the red line are the mathematical expectation associated with the size of the loss in an effective strategy in an effective market. In other words, those who have a small percentage of losing trades in their strategy should be on guard. The potential loss in such strategies can be several times higher than the accumulated profit. In the case of strategies with a high percentage of losing trades, most of the risk has already been realized, so the potential loss relative to the profit is small.
As for my attitude towards Stop-Loss, I do not use it in my stock market investing strategy. That is, I don’t know in advance at what price I will close the position. This is because I treat buying shares as participating in a business. I cannot accept that when crazy Mr. Market knocks on my door and offers a strange price, I will immediately sell him my shares. Rather, I would ask myself, “ How efficient is the market right now and should I buy more shares at this price? ” My decision to sell should be motivated not only by the price but also by the fundamental reasons for the decline.
For me, the main criterion for closing a position is the company's profitability - a metric that is the same for everyone who looks at it. If a business stops being profitable, that's a red flag. In this case, the time the company has been in a loss-making state and the size of the losses are considered. Even a great company can have a bad quarter for one reason or another.
In my opinion, the main work with risks should take place before the company gets into the portfolio, and not after the position is opened. Often it doesn't even involve fundamental business analysis. Here are four things I'm talking about:
- Diversification. Distribution of investments among many companies.
- Gradually gaining position. Buying stocks within a range of prices, rather than at one desired price.
- Prioritization of sectors. For me, sectors of stable consumer demand always have a higher priority than others.
- No leverage.
I propose to examine the last point separately. The thing is that the broker who lends you money is absolutely right to be afraid that you won’t pay it back. For this reason, each time he calculates how much his loan is secured by your money and the current value of the shares (that is, the value that is currently on the market). Once this collateral is not enough, you will receive a so-called margin call . This is a requirement to fund an account to secure a loan. If you fail to do this, part of your position will be forcibly closed. Unfortunately, no one will listen to the excuse that this company is making a profit and the market is insane. The broker will simply give you a Stop-Loss. Therefore, leverage, by its definition, cannot be used in my investment strategy.
In conclusion of this article, I would like to say that the market, as a social phenomenon, contains a great paradox. On the one hand, we have a natural desire for it to be ineffective, on the other hand, we are all working on its effectiveness. It turns out that the income we take from the market is payment for this work. At the same time, our loss can be represented as the salary that we personally pay to other market participants for their efficiency. I don't know about you, but this understanding seems beautiful to me.
How to develop a simple Buy&Sell strategy using Pine ScriptIn this article, will explain how to develop a simple backtesting for a Buy&Sell trading strategy using Pine Script language and simple moving average (SMA).
Strategy description
The strategy illustrated works on price movements around the 200-period simple moving average (SMA). Open long positions when the price crossing-down and moves below the average. Close position when the price crossing-up and moves above the average. A single trade is opened at a time, using 5% of the total capital.
Behind the code
Now let's try to break down the logic behind the strategy to provide a method for properly organizing the source code. In this specific example, we can identify three main actions:
1) Data extrapolation
2) Researching condition and data filtering
3) Trading execution
1. GENERAL PARAMETERS OF THE STRATEGY
First define the general parameters of the script.
Let's define the name.
"Buy&Sell Strategy Template "
Select whether to show the output on the chart or within a dashboard. In this example will show the output on the chart.
overlay = true
Specify that a percentage of the equity will be used for each trade.
default_qty_type = strategy.percent_of_equity
Specify percentage quantity to be used for each trade. Will be 5%.
default_qty_value = 5
Choose the backtesting currency.
currency = currency.EUR
Choose the capital portfolio amount.
initial_capital = 10000
Let's define percentage commissions.
commission_type = strategy.commission.percent
Let's set the commission at 0.07%.
commission_value = 0.07
Let's define a slippage of 3.
slippage = 3
Calculate data only when the price is closed, for more accurate output.
process_orders_on_close = true
2. DATA EXTRAPOLATION
In this second step we extrapolate data from the historical series. Call the calculation of the simple moving average using close price and 200 period bars.
sma = ta.sma(close, 200)
3. DEFINITION OF TRADING CONDITIONS
Now define the trading conditions.
entry_condition = ta.crossunder(close, sma)
The close condition involves a bullish crossing of the closing price with the average.
exit_condition = ta.crossover(close, sma)
4. TRADING EXECUTION
At this step, our script will execute trades using the conditions described above.
if (entry_condition==true and strategy.opentrades==0)
strategy.entry(id = "Buy", direction = strategy.long, limit = close)
if (exit_condition==true)
strategy.exit(id = "Sell", from_entry = "Buy", limit = close)
5. DESIGN
In this last step will draw the SMA indicator, representing it with a red line.
plot(sma, title = "SMA", color = color.red)
Complete code below.
//@version=6
strategy(
"Buy&Sell Strategy Template ",
overlay = true,
default_qty_type = strategy.percent_of_equity,
default_qty_value = 5,
currency = currency.EUR,
initial_capital = 10000,
commission_type = strategy.commission.percent,
commission_value = 0.07,
slippage = 3,
process_orders_on_close = true
)
sma = ta.sma(close, 200)
entry_condition = ta.crossunder(close, sma)
exit_condition = ta.crossover(close, sma)
if (entry_condition==true and strategy.opentrades==0)
strategy.entry(id = "Buy", direction = strategy.long, limit = close)
if (exit_condition==true)
strategy.exit(id = "Sell", from_entry = "Buy", limit = close)
plot(sma, title = "SMA", color = color.red)
The completed script will display the moving average with open and close trading signals.
IMPORTANT! Remember, this strategy was created for educational purposes only. Not use it in real trading.
Bollinger Bands: Basics and Breakout Strategy🔵 What are Bollinger Bands?
Bollinger Bands are a popular technical analysis tool developed by John Bollinger in the early 1980s. They help traders analyze price volatility and potential price levels for buying or selling. The indicator consists of three lines plotted over a price chart:
Middle Band: A simple moving average (SMA), typically set to a 20-period average.
Upper Band: The middle band plus two standard deviations.
Lower Band: The middle band minus two standard deviations.
🔵 How Are Bollinger Bands Calculated?
Middle Band (MB): MB = 20-period SMA of the closing price.
Upper Band (UB): UB = MB + (2 × standard deviation of the last 20 periods).
Lower Band (LB): LB = MB - (2 × standard deviation of the last 20 periods).
The bands expand when volatility increases and contract when volatility decreases.
length = 20
basis = ta.sma(src, length)
dev = mult * ta.stdev(src, length)
upper = basis + dev
lower = basis - dev
🔵 How to Use Bollinger Bands in Trading
Bollinger Bands provide insights into market volatility and potential price reversals. Traders often use them to:
Identify overbought (price near the upper band) and oversold (price near the lower band) conditions.
Spot volatility contractions, which often precede significant price moves.
Confirm trend strength and potential reversals.
🔵 Bollinger Bands Breakout Strategy
One effective strategy involves preparing for breakouts when the upper and lower bands contract, indicating low price momentum.
Strategy Steps:
Identify Low Volatility Zones: Look for periods when the bands are close together, signaling a potential breakout.
Prepare for a Breakout: Monitor price action as it approaches either the upper or lower band.
Entry Signal: Enter a trade when the price closes above the upper band (for a long position) or below the lower band (for a short position).
Stop Loss Placement:
For long entries (break above upper band): Set stop loss at the lower band.
For short entries (break below lower band): Set stop loss at the upper band.
Profit Target: Use a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2 or close the position when price shows signs of reversal.
Example Charts:
🔵 Final Thoughts
This Bollinger Bands breakout strategy is simple yet effective. By recognizing periods of low volatility and preparing for breakouts, traders can capitalize on significant price movements. Always complement this strategy with proper risk management and confirmation indicators for optimal results.
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk, and traders are solely responsible for their own decisions and actions.
The Inside Out InvestorThere is a common misconception that investing in stocks is always stressful and emotionally overwhelming. Many people think that this activity is only available to extremely resilient people or crazy people. In fact, if you know the answers to three key questions, investing becomes a rather boring activity. Let me remind you of them below:
1. Which stocks to choose?
2. At what price should the trade be made?
3. In what volume?
As for me, most of the time, I'm just in waiting mode. First, I wait for the company's business to start showing sustainable growth dynamics in profits and other fundamental indicators. Then, I wait for a sell-off of strong company shares at unreasonably low prices. Of course, this requires a lot of patience and a positive outlook on the future. That's why I believe that being young is one of the key advantages of being a beginner investor. The younger you are, the more time you have to wait.
However, we still have to get to this boring state. And if you've embarked on this long journey, expect to encounter many emotions that will test your strength. To help me understand them, I came up with the following map.
Next I will comment on each of its elements from left to right.
Free Cash horizontal line (from 0% to 100%) - X axis
When you first open and fund a brokerage account, your Free Cash is equal to 100% of the account. Then it will gradually decrease as you buy shares. If Free Cash is 0%, then all your money in the account was invested in shares. In short, it is a scale of how much your portfolio is loaded with stocks.
Vertical line Alpha - Y axis
Alpha is the ratio of the change in your portfolio to the change in an alternative portfolio that you do not own but use as a reference (in other words, a benchmark). For example, such a benchmark could be an ETF (exchange-traded fund) on the S&P500 index if you invest in wide US market stocks. Buying an ETF does not require any effort on your part as a manager, so it is useful to compare the performance of such an asset with the performance of your portfolio and calculate Alpha. In this example, it is the ratio of your portfolio's return to the return of the S&P 500 ETF. At the level where Alpha is zero, there is a horizontal Free Cash line. Above this line is positive Alpha (in which case you are outperforming the broader market), below zero is negative Alpha (in which case your portfolio is outperforming the benchmark). Let me clarify that the portfolio yield includes the financial result for both open and closed positions.
Fear of the button
This is the emotion that blocks the sending of an order to buy shares. Being captivated by this emotion, you will be afraid to press this button, realizing that investing in shares does not guarantee a positive result at all. In other words, you may lose some of your money irretrievably. This fear is absolutely justified. If you feel this way, consider the size of your stock investment account and the percentage amount you are willing to lose. Remember to diversify your portfolio. If you can't find a balance between account size, acceptable loss, and diversification, don't press the button. Come back to her when you're ready.
Enthusiasm
At this stage, you have a high share of Free Cash, and you also have your first open positions in stocks. Your Alpha is positive. You are not afraid to press the button, but there is a certain excitement about the future result. The state of enthusiasm is quite fragile and can quickly turn into a state of FOMO if Alpha moves into the negative zone. Therefore, it is critical to continue learning the chosen strategy at this stage. A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.
FOMO
FOMO is a common acronym used to describe a psychological condition known as fear of missing out. In the stock market, this manifests itself as fear of missing out. This condition is typical for a portfolio with a high proportion of Free Cash and negative Alpha. As the benchmark's return outpaces your portfolio's return, you will be in a nervous state. The main worry will be that you didn't buy the stocks that are currently the growth leaders. You will be tempted to deviate from your chosen strategy and take a chance on buying something on the off chance. To get rid of this condition, you need to understand that the stock market has existed for hundreds of years, and thousands of companies trade on it. Every year, new companies emerge, as well as new investment opportunities. Remind yourself that you are not here for one million dollar deal, but for systematic work with opportunities that will always be there.
Zen
The most desirable state of an investor is when he understands all the details of the chosen strategy and has effective experience in its application. This is expressed in positive Alpha and excellent mood. Taking the time to manage your portfolio, developing habits and a disciplined approach will bring satisfaction and the feeling that you are on the right track. At this stage, it is important to maintain this state, and not to chase after thrills.
Disappointment
This stage is a mirror of the Zen state. It can develop from the FOMO stage, especially if you break your own rules and invest on luck. It can also be caused by a sharp deterioration in the condition of a portfolio, which was doing well in the Zen state. If everything is clear in the first case, and you just need to stop acting weird , then in the second situation you should remember why you ended up in a state of Zen. Investments are always a series of profitable and unprofitable trades. However, losing trades cannot be considered a failure if they were made in accordance with the principles of the chosen strategy. Just keep following the accepted rules to win in the long run. Also remember that Mr. Market is crazy enough to offer prices that seem absurd to you. Yes, this can negatively affect your Alpha, but at the same time provide opportunities to open new positions according to the chosen strategy.
Euphoria
Another way out of the Zen state is called Euphoria. This is typical dizziness from success. At this stage you have little Free Cash, a large share of stocks in your portfolio and phenomenally positive Alpha. You feel like a king and lose your composure. That is why this stage is marked in red. In a state of euphoria, you may feel like everything you touch turns to gold. You feel the desire to take a risk and play for luck. You don't want to close positions with good profits. Furthermore, you think you can close at the highs and make even more money. You are deviating from the chosen strategy, which is fraught with major negative consequences. It only takes a few non-systemic decisions to push your Alpha into the negative zone and find yourself in a state of disappointment. If your ego doesn't stop there, the decline may continue.
Tilt
A prolonged state of disappointment or a rapid fall of Alpha from the Euphoria stage can lead to the most negative psycho-emotional state called Tilt. This term is widely used in the game of poker, but can also be used in investments. While in this state, the investor does everything out of strategy, his actions are chaotic and in many ways aggressive. He thinks the stock market owes him something. The investor cannot stop his irrational actions, trying to regain his former success or get out of a series of failures in the shortest possible time. This usually ends in big losses. It is better to inform your loved ones in advance that such a condition exists. Don't be embarrassed by this, even if you think you are immune to such situations. A person in a state of tilt withdraws into himself and acts in a state of affect. Therefore, it is significant to bring him out of this state and show that the outside world exists and has its own unique value.
Now let's talk about your expectations, as they largely determine your attitude towards investing. Never turn your positive expectations into a benchmark. The stock market is an element that is absolutely indifferent to our forecasts. Even strong companies can fall in price if there is a shortage of liquidity in the market. In times of crisis, everyone suffers, but the most prepared suffer the least. Therefore, the main task of a smart investor is to work on himself until the moment he presses the coveted button. There will always be a chance to do this. As I said, the market will not disappear tomorrow. But to use this chance wisely, you need to be prepared. This means that you should have an answer to all three questions above. Then you will definitely catch your Zen.
Why you should choose your trading period carefullyFirst, let's look at the four most important trading sessions. The Forex and stock market is divided into different trading sessions, which are based on the opening hours of the main financial centers:
Session Opening Hours (UTC) Major Markets:
-> Sydney session 22:00 – 07:00 Australia, New Zealand
-> Tokyo session 00:00 – 09:00 Japan, China, Singapore
-> London session 08:00 – 17:00 UK, Europe
-> New York session 1:00 p.m. – 10:00 p.m. USA, Canada
Note: Times vary slightly depending on summer or winter time.
Why are trading sessions important?
-> Volatility & Liquidity
Depending on the session, there are different market movements.
High liquidity → tight spreads and better order execution.
Low liquidity → greater slippage and wider spreads.
-> Active currencies & markets
During the Tokyo session, JPY and AUD pairs are particularly active.
During the London session, EUR and GBP pairs are the most volatile.
During the New York session, USD pairs and stock markets moved the most.
Opportunities & risks during overlapping times:
The overlaps between sessions are the most volatile times because several major markets are active at the same time.
1. London-New York Overlap (13:00 – 17:00 UTC)
→ Highest volatility
Why?
The world's two largest financial centers operate at the same time.
Opportunities:
Big price moves → good for breakout traders and scalping.
High liquidity → tight spreads, fast order execution.
Risks:
Extreme volatility → rapid price changes can trigger stop losses.
News (e.g. US jobs data) can cause sudden movements.
Practical example:
A trader is watching EUR/USD and sees strong resistance at 1.1000.
US inflation data will be released at 13:30 UTC.
If the data is better than expected → USD strengthens, EUR/USD falls.
If the data is worse → USD weakens, EUR/USD rises.
Within a few minutes the price can fluctuate by 50-100 pips.
→ Strategy: News traders rely on quick movements, while conservative traders extend stop losses or pause during this time.
2. Tokyo-London Overlap (08:00 – 09:00 UTC)
→ Medium volatility
Why?
London opens while Tokyo is still active.
Opportunities:
JPY pairs (e.g. GBP/JPY) are moving strongly.
Breakouts through the European opening.
Risks:
Sudden changes in direction as European traders often have a different market opinion than Asian ones.
Practical example:
A scalper is trading GBP/JPY in a narrow range of 185.00 – 185.20 during the Tokyo session.
At 08:00 UTC London opens with GBP/JPY breaking above 185.50.
Within 30 minutes the price rises to 186.00 as European traders buy GBP.
If you recognize the breakout early, you can quickly take 50-100 pips.
→ Strategy: Scalpers rely on quick entries and take profits before volatility subsides.
3. Sydney-Tokyo Overlap (00:00 – 07:00 UTC)
→ Low volatility
Why?
Mainly the Asian market is active.
Opportunities:
Less volatility → good for range trading.
Cheaper spreads for AUD and NZD pairs.
Risks:
Little liquidity → Slippage may occur.
Strong moves are rare, except for major news from Japan or Australia.
Practical example:
A swing trader notes that AUD/USD has been fluctuating between 0.6500 and 0.6550 for days.
During the Sydney-Tokyo session the price mostly stays in this range.
The trader places a sell limit order at 0.6550 and a buy limit order at 0.6500.
Since there is little volatility, it can be profitable with multiple small trades.
→ Strategy: Range trading is ideal because no major breakouts are expected.
Conclusion:
Each trading session has its own characteristics, opportunities and risks.
The crossovers are the most volatile times - good for day traders, but risky for inexperienced traders. Anyone who understands the market mechanisms can take targeted action at the right time. The strategies mentioned above are simply derivations from the advantages and disadvantages of the respective sessions. Of course, a well-founded strategy concept requires much more.
Multi-Timeframe Volume Profile and Divergence StrategyObjective:
To combine multi-timeframe analysis, volume profile insights, and divergence patterns for identifying high-probability trades.
1. Strategy Components
A. Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
Use three timeframes for analysis:
Higher timeframe (HTF): To identify the overall trend (e.g., Weekly/4H).
Intermediate timeframe (ITF): For spotting critical support/resistance zones (e.g., Daily/1H).
Lower timeframe (LTF): For precise entry and exit signals (e.g., 15M/5M).
B. Volume Profile:
Incorporate Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR):
Identify key areas: Point of Control (POC), High Volume Nodes (HVN), and Low Volume Nodes (LVN).
Use these levels as dynamic support and resistance.
C. Divergence Patterns:
Look for Bullish Divergence and Bearish Divergence on oscillators like:
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
MACD
Stochastic RSI
Combine divergences with price action near significant volume levels.
D. Additional Tools:
200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average): For trend direction.
ATR (Average True Range): For stop-loss and take-profit levels.
Fibonacci Retracement: For confluence with volume profile levels.
2. Trading Plan
Step 1: Higher Timeframe Trend Identification
Use the HTF to establish whether the market is in an uptrend, downtrend, or range.
Mark key swing highs, lows, and supply/demand zones.
Step 2: Intermediate Timeframe Analysis
Apply the Volume Profile on the ITF to find:
POC: Indicates price consensus.
HVN/LVN: Potential zones for reversals or continuation.
Watch for price approaching these levels.
Step 3: Lower Timeframe Execution
Monitor LTF for:
Divergence signals on oscillators.
Candle patterns like pin bars, engulfing candles, or inside bars at significant levels.
Confirm trades using:
Price breaking out of LVN or rejecting HVN.
Crossovers of EMA for extra confirmation.
3. Entry, Stop Loss, and Take Profi t
Entry:
Long Position:
Price reacts at HVN/LVN near a support level.
Bullish divergence on LTF.
Short Position:
Price tests HVN/LVN near resistance.
Bearish divergence on LTF.
Stop Loss:
Place just beyond recent swing high/low or above/below the LVN/HVN zone.
Use ATR (1.5x) for volatility-based placement.
Take Profit:
First target: Nearby POC or Fibonacci levels.
Second target: HTF supply/demand zone
The Prop Trader’s Secret: How to Trade for Real MoneyTrading for Profit vs. Trading to Make Money
There’s a critical difference between trading to be profitable and trading to make money. While they may seem like the same thing, they’re not—and as a trader, you must decide which approach you want to take. If your goal is to be a prop trader who actually makes money, here’s 3 ways you shift your mindset and strategy.
1. Make Frequent Withdrawals
Traders focused on making money consistently withdraw profits. I learned this the hard way during my early trading days, seven years ago. Back then, I was obsessed with being "profitable." My focus was on hitting arbitrary profit targets—green months, green quarters, and a green year. While that mindset works for hedge funds, it’s not ideal for prop traders.
To succeed in the prop trading space, you need to prioritize frequent withdrawals.
Hit a strong run and make 2.5%? Withdraw.
Have a profitable day and the withdrawal window opens tomorrow? Even if you’re only up 1%, withdraw.
Frequent withdrawals create a feedback loop: the more often you secure profits, the more motivated and disciplined you’ll be to continue nailing winning trades. Prop trading comes with inherent uncertainty, so obsessing over 10% profit targets or arbitrary milestones only sets you up for disappointment.
2. Follow the 1-1-1 Rule
Stick to the 1-1-1 rule:
Take 1 trade per day.
Risk 1% per trade.
Focus on 1 financial instrument.
Adhering to this rule will transform your trading. You’ll avoid overtrading, reduce your exposure to losing streaks, and eliminate the emotional tilt that often leads to blowing accounts.
This discipline has kept me consistently profitable over the years. Whether you’re trading GBPUSD, EURUSD, XAUUSD, or US30, pick one instrument and master it. The path to trading success is as much about mastering yourself as it is about mastering the market.
3. Focus on Small Risk-to-Reward Ratios (R:R)
Small R:R trades may not sound exciting, but they’re the backbone of consistent profitability. Catching a 1:10R move might feel like the ultimate trading achievement, but are you here to be "profitable" or to make money? Make up your mind.
Most traders chase high R:R setups, only to give back 80% of their gains after one emotional mistake. Instead, focus on smaller, attainable targets:
Learn to consistently spot 1:2, 1:3, and occasionally 1:4 R setups.
On a $200k account, a single 1:3R trade at 1% risk generates $6,000.
After locking in a winning trade, withdraw your profits and repeat the process. Over time, these smaller, consistent gains will make you far richer than grinding for massive R:R setups and risking it all in the process.
The Bottom Line
Prop trading is about discipline, consistency, and the ability to extract real money from the markets—not just hitting arbitrary profit goals. By making frequent withdrawals, following the 1-1-1 rule, and focusing on attainable R:R setups, you can trade with confidence, avoid burnout, and get make real money! Isn't that why we're all here?
Happy Trading
top 8 simple steps to successful trading
1- Determining the trend
Before looking for entry points, it is important to clearly determine whether the market is in a trend or a sideways movement (flat). After all, it is in the continuation of the trend that signals usually work best.
Moving averages (EMA) and other trend indicators help to visually understand whether the price is rising, falling or “sleeping” in a sideways trend.
Regression channels and Bollinger Bands can further clarify the direction of movement and market volatility.
An example of trend visualization:
In this screenshot we can see how the moving averages are located above each other (bullish trend) or below each other (bearish trend). This is the first step: to understand where the river is “flowing”.
2- Identify levels and zones of interest
Support and resistance levels are a fundamental element of technical analysis. Prices often “walk” from one level to another, and large volumes visible in the horizontal profile of the market signal zones of interest for players.
Support/resistance levels are formed based on historical price extrema.
The horizontal profile of volumes shows where the greatest buying/selling activity is located.
Market participants' stop-losses (approximate levels) help to understand where a liquidity spike may occur.
Example of defining levels:
On the screenshot we can see the highlighted price areas and horizontal volume levels, which are worth paying attention to in order to find an entry.
3. finding entry points
When the trend is already defined and the main levels and zones of interest are marked, it is time to look for specific entry points. This is where signals from smart technical analysis indicators are especially important:
Smart signals help you recognize the beginning of a trend movement or a possible reversal.
Evaluating the strength of signals gives you an idea of the reliability of the current pattern according to many criteria (for example, on a trivial scale from 1 to 10).
Built-in technical analysis (“auto-trading” or “auto-marketing”) can confirm your observations.
An example of searching for an entry point:
In this example, you can see how buy signals (Long) appear at the moment of the beginning of an upward impulse when bouncing off supports.
4. Confirm the set-up with additional factors
There is no Golden Grail, so it is always desirable to have as many confirming factors as possible. These can be divergences, indicators of buyer/seller pressure, as well as signs of manipulation by big players.
Divergences in several indicators (RSI, MACD, etc.) often foreshadow a trend reversal or slowdown.
Buyer/seller pressure shows who controls the current market (bulls or bears?).
Manipulations by big players form false breakdowns, reversals and “knocking down stops”.
Example of setup confirmation:
On the screenshot you can see an example of divergence, as well as areas where, judging by the volumes, there was obvious activity of the “big hand”.
5. Confirming the trend we have identified via Midas Up
After the first trend analysis, it is useful to double-check it with additional indicators. There may be new signals of reversal or impulse movement that we missed.
Money supply movement: figure out how active the participants are and in which direction the volumes are flowing.
Trend tape and oscillators: filter market noise and confirm the start/end of a momentum move.
Price momentum: Often heralds powerful upward or downward spurts.
An example of a trend confirmation:
Note how several indicators confirming the same direction are combined in the screenshot.
6. Analyzing the behavior of large players
Large players (market makers, funds, etc.) have money and influence enough to significantly change the price. Observing their actions is one of the key aspects of successful trading.
The pressure of the big players shows who is entering the market and in what volumes.
Large whale buys/sells indicate points where significant liquidity is exchanged.
Whale buying/selling in the market confirms a powerful price movement.
Example of major player analysis:
In the screenshot we can see indicators of large trades, which often become triggers for reversals or acceleration of the movement.
7. Confirm the entry point by analyzing the current momentum
Even after knowing the general trend and observing the activity of big players, it is important to evaluate the moment of entry itself - especially when the market has already started moving in the chosen direction or is slowing down.
Pulse reversal points indicate the optimal moment to enter or exit.
Evaluation of the signal strength level (for example, 6 out of 10 or 9 out of 10) indicates the probability of successful execution.
The built-in technical analysis can additionally generate “Long” or “Short” signals.
Example of impulse analysis:
You can see how the combination of signals (candlestick patterns, volumes, indicators) indicates a possible long upward impulse.
8. Confirm the setup with additional factors
If one indicator gives a signal, it does not always guarantee a profitable trade - you need to look for confirmation from different sources. Here we can use:
Volume candlestick detailing - determining the true strength of the movement.
The weighted average price helps to smooth out sharp fluctuations and better navigate the trend.
Overheating by oscillators (RSI, Stoch) warns of a possible correction.
Example of additional factors:
In the screenshot we can see how several indicators of overheating and volume simultaneously indicate a high probability of correction, which can save from false entry or late entry into the market.
Conclusion
Consistent market analysis is a step-by-step process that requires a comprehensive approach:
We identify the trend and try to trade in its direction.
We look for key levels and zones with high liquidity and increased attention of big players.
Find entry points based on smart signals, candlestick patterns and volumes.
Confirm the set-up using factors like divergences, activity of big players and buying/selling pressure.
We double-check the trend with indicators, analyze the dynamics and momentum of the movement.
We study the behavior of major players, because they are the ones who form the main market movements.
We confirm the moment of entry by analyzing the current momentum and strength of signals.
We add finishing touches - analyze volumes, market overheating by oscillators and other factors.
Use various tools in a complex - and then the probability of closing a deal with a profit will increase significantly.
Have a good trade!
Master High-Probability Breakouts with the GOLDEN Trading SystemWelcome to the GOLDEN Trading System (GTS) – a custom-designed strategy tailored for traders seeking high-probability breakout opportunities. Built on the foundation of TradingView's powerful indicators, GTS focuses on leveraging Camarilla Pivot Levels (H3-H4 and L3-L4) to spot and act on potential market trends. Whether you're a beginner or an experienced trader, this system simplifies the complexity of technical analysis, giving you an edge in the markets.
Core Elements of the Strategy.
1. Key Levels to Watch:
Green Band (H3-H4):
Represents a resistance zone where bullish breakouts are likely to occur. A confirmed breakout above H4 often leads to a strong upward trend.
Red Band (L3-L4):
Acts as a support zone, signaling potential bearish moves when broken. A confirmed breakdown below L4 generally triggers a downward trend.
2. The Breakout Concept:
When the price crosses either of these bands, it indicates a potential shift in market dynamics:
Bullish Breakout: Price breaks above the Green Band, suggesting buyers have gained control.
Bearish Breakout: Price breaks below the Red Band, signaling sellers have the upper hand.
Why This Strategy Works?
High Probability: Camarilla Pivot Levels are widely respected by traders, making breakouts from these zones more reliable.
Trend Confirmation: The system minimizes false signals by focusing on specific breakout levels instead of broader zones.
Clear Entry/Exit Points: You can easily determine when to enter a trade and set stop-loss or take-profit levels.
How to Use the GOLDEN Trading System?
Identify the Bands: Look for the Green Band (H3-H4) and Red Band (L3-L4) on your chart.
Watch for Breakouts:
Enter a long position when the price closes decisively above the Green Band (H4).
Enter a short position when the price closes decisively below the Red Band (L4).
Manage Your Risk:
Use the opposite band (L3 or H3) as a stop-loss level to protect your trade.
Consider trailing your stop-loss as the trend progresses.
Add Confirmation: For greater accuracy, combine this strategy with other tools such as volume spikes, candlestick patterns, or higher timeframe trend analysis.
Case Study Example:
Take a closer look at the chart provided:
The price broke below the Red Band (L3-L4), confirming a bearish breakout.
Post-breakout, the price continued its downtrend, offering a high-reward opportunity for short-sellers.
By adhering to the system's clear breakout rules, you could have entered the trade early and capitalized on the trend with confidence.
Benefits of the GOLDEN Trading System:
Simplicity: Focuses on straightforward rules, making it beginner-friendly.
Consistency: Reduces emotional trading by adhering to defined breakout zones.
Scalability: Works across multiple timeframes and markets, including indices, stocks, and commodities.
Pro Tip for Advanced Traders:
Combine GTS with volume analysis, RSI divergence, or moving averages to add layers of confirmation to your trades. This helps filter out false breakouts and improves your win rate.
Join the GTS movement and elevate your trading game today! Share your feedback, results, and tweaks to make the strategy even better. Happy trading! 🚀
The Two Archetypes of TradersIn the trading world, markets move in cycles, and bearish conditions are no exception. Here's an educational breakdown of how traders can navigate these challenging times:
1. The Long-Term Holders (Investors)
Mindset: Patience is their superpower.
Goal: Accumulate assets during bearish trends by buying at key support levels and holding for future gains.
Approach: Use the WiseOwl Indicator to identify areas of strong support and potential accumulation zones for strategic entries.
2. The Intraday Traders (Short-Term)
Mindset: Adaptability and precision are crucial.
Goal: Profit from short-term price movements, capitalizing on market volatility.
Approach: Utilize the WiseOwl Indicator to pinpoint bearish momentum for short entries and clear exit levels, ensuring optimal risk management.
Educational Example: WiseOwl Strategy in Action
Let’s analyze Solana (SOL) on the 15-minute timeframe during a bearish market:
Trend Identification: The WiseOwl Indicator highlights a confirmed downtrend with clear bearish signals.
Entry Points: Short trade signals are generated at moments of significant bearish momentum.
Risk Management: Stop loss and take profit levels, calculated using ATR-based logic, ensure disciplined trading.
Takeaways for Traders
📉 Bearish Markets:
Holders focus on identifying value areas for accumulation.
Intraday traders capitalize on market volatility with precise entries and exits.
Happy trading! 🚀
#WiseOwlIndicator #TradingEducation #BearMarket #SOLAnalysis #CryptoTrading
Why people losing there money even in the bull market?In a bull market, where prices are generally rising and optimism prevails, it’s easy to assume making money is straightforward. However, many people still lose money due to the following reasons:
1. Chasing Hype
FOMO (Fear of Missing Out): Investors buy at elevated prices because they don’t want to miss the rally, only to see prices correct.
Overconfidence in speculative assets: Buying trendy stocks or assets without proper research often leads to losses when the bubble bursts.
2. Lack of a Strategy
No exit plan: Many investors fail to take profits, thinking prices will keep going up indefinitely. When the market dips, they lose their gains.
Short-term mentality: Impulsive decisions without long-term goals can result in buying high and selling low.
3. Over-Leverage
Using borrowed money to invest amplifies losses if the market doesn’t perform as expected. When the market dips, leveraged investors are forced to sell to cover their debts.
4. Ignoring Fundamentals
Many buy overvalued stocks or assets without considering whether the price reflects the company's actual worth.
Following the crowd often leads to investing in overpriced or low-quality assets.
5. Emotional Trading
Fear and greed dominate decisions. For example, panic selling during minor corrections or buying excessively due to market euphoria.
6. Overtrading
Constantly trying to time the market or moving between assets leads to transaction fees and poor timing.
7. Falling for Scams
Bull markets often attract scams, like pump-and-dump schemes, fraudulent projects, or overly hyped Initial Public Offerings (IPOs).
8. Holding Through the Peak
Some investors fail to recognize when the bull market is near its end and hold onto assets through the subsequent downturn.
Even in a bull market, discipline, research, and a clear strategy are essential to avoid costly mistakes.
Best Regards 🎯
Election Year Cycle & Stock Market Returns - VisualisedIn this chart, we're analysing the open value of the week the US election took place and comparing it to the open of the following election, showing the gain (or loss) in value between each election cycle.
Historically we can see prices in the Dow Jones Industrials Index tend to appreciate the week the election is held. Only twice has the return between the cycles produced a negative return.
Buying stocks on election day, 8 out of 10 times has yielded a profitable return between the election cycles. 80% of the time in the past 40 years returning a profit, has so far been a good strategy to take.
The typical cycle starts with the election results, an immediate positive movement and continued growth before finishing positive.
The Outliers
2000-2004 was the only year which ended negative without prices going higher than the election day.
2004-2008 increased 41.84% before ending negative.
2008-2012 began the cycle falling 30.62% before finishing positive.
The names of presidents who won their respective elections is to visualise who had the presidential term during that specific cycle.
Stop Losses: Protecting Your Trades and Building Consistency
Stop losses are a critical tool for any trader aiming to manage risk and protect capital. A stop loss is a preset level at which a trade will automatically close to prevent further losses if the price moves against you. This approach is one of the most effective ways to protect your account, and understanding how to set and use stop losses correctly can help you trade more confidently.
In this article, I will discuss why stop losses are essential, the types of stop losses available, and how they link to other core strategies like position sizing and maintaining consistency.
Why Every Trader Needs a Stop Loss
The primary role of a stop loss is to limit potential losses on a trade. By setting a stop loss level, you define your risk before entering the trade, which helps ensure that no single trade can damage your account significantly. This practice is fundamental to disciplined trading, where managing risk is just as important as aiming for profits. When you use stop losses, you’re able to protect your account without relying on emotions or making quick decisions based on fear or market volatility .
Using stop losses also promotes consistency, as it allows traders to follow their strategy and avoid unexpected, large losses. Knowing your risk upfront means you can execute your trades with a clear plan, focusing on opportunities rather than worrying about sudden market moves. This consistency is key to achieving long-term success in trading 🚀.
The Types of Stop Losses Every Trader Should Know
There are different types of stop losses, each suited to particular trading strategies and market conditions. Here are some of the most common types and how they work:
Fixed Dollar or Percentage Stop Loss
This is the simplest type, where you set a specific dollar amount or percentage of your capital as the maximum loss.
Example: If you’re willing to lose $100 on a trade, you place a stop loss that will close your position if the loss reaches $100.
Technical Stop Loss
A technical stop loss is set using chart levels, like support or resistance, which reflect natural points where prices may bounce or reverse.
Example: If a stock has support at $48 and you buy it at $50, you might set your stop loss just below $48. This way, if the price breaks the support level, the trade closes to prevent further loss.
Trailing Stop Loss
A trailing stop loss adjusts upward as the price moves in your favor, locking in profits if the stock reverses.
Example: If you buy a stock at $50 with a $1 trailing stop, and the price rises to $55, your stop automatically moves to $54. If the price then drops to $54, the trade closes, protecting your $4 profit.
Volatility-Based Stop Loss
This type of stop loss takes into account the stock’s usual price swings, setting the stop far enough away to avoid being triggered by minor fluctuations.
Example: If the ATR (Average True Range) of a stock is $2, you might set your stop $3 below your entry point to account for normal market movements.
Time-Based Stop Loss
A time-based stop loss closes the position after a set period, which is particularly useful for day traders who avoid holding trades overnight.
Example: A day trader might exit all trades by 4 p.m., regardless of the price movement, to avoid the risks of holding overnight positions.
How Stop Loss and Position Sizing Work Together
Stop losses and position sizing are deeply connected. Position sizing is the amount of capital you commit to each trade, and it’s based on your risk tolerance and the distance to your stop loss level. For instance, if you have a $10,000 account and want to risk only 1% per trade (or $100), you’ll need to calculate how many shares you can buy based on the distance to your stop loss.
Let’s say your stop loss is $5 away from your entry price. To stick to your $100 risk limit, you would only buy 20 shares ($100/$5 stop distance). By setting your position size relative to your stop loss, you control how much of your capital is at risk. This approach keeps your losses small enough that no single trade can impact your overall capital significantly, allowing you to trade consistently and confidently.
How Stop Losses Contribute to Consistent Trading
Stop losses are essential for maintaining consistency in trading. They allow you to avoid big losses that can drain your capital and help keep emotions in check, allowing you to trade with a clear mind. Using stop losses also helps you keep your risk-to-reward ratio in balance, so even if some trades go against you, the overall profits from successful trades will outweigh these losses.
This discipline keeps you aligned with your strategy and limits impulsive actions, which are often harmful to trading success. In this way, stop losses help establish a consistent, repeatable process that strengthens your trading foundation and increases your chances of long-term success.
I know very well the frustration of seeing my stop losses being hit, but believe me, the worst feeling is getting stuck with a large loss for weeks, months, or even years. Sometimes, stocks never recover.
7 Ways to Optimize Your Trading Strategy Like a ProYou’ve got a trading strategy—great. But if you think that’s where the work ends, think again. A good strategy is like a sports car: It’s fast, fun, and dangerous… unless you keep it tuned and under control. And given how volatile modern trading is, yesterday’s strategy can quickly become tomorrow’s account-drainer. So, how do you keep your trading strategy sharp and in profit mode? Let’s dive into seven ways to fine-tune your setup like a pro.
1️⃣ Backtest Like Your Profits Depend on It (Spoiler: They Do)
Before you let your strategy loose in the wild, backtest it against historical data. It’s not enough to say, “This looks good.” Run the numbers. Find out how it performs over different time frames, market conditions, and asset classes — stocks , crypto , forex , and more. If you’re not backtesting, you run the risk of trading blind — use the sea of charting tools and instruments around here, slap them on previous price action and see how they do.
💡 Pro Tip : Make sure to backtest with realistic conditions. Don’t cheat with perfect hindsight—markets aren’t that kind.
2️⃣ Optimize for Risk, Not Just Reward
Everyone gets starry-eyed over profits, but the best traders obsess over risk management. Adjust your strategy to keep risk in check. Ask yourself: How much are you willing to lose per trade? What’s your win-loss ratio? A strategy that promises massive returns but ignores risk is more like a ticking time bomb than a way to pull in long-term profits.
💡 Pro Tip : Use a risk-reward ratio of at least 2:1. It’s simple: risk $1 to make $2, and you’ve got a buffer against losses. Want to go big? Use 5:1 or why not even 15:1? Learn all about it in our Asymmetric Risk Reward Idea.
3️⃣ Diversify Your Strategy Across Markets
If you’re only trading one asset or market, you’re asking for trouble (sooner or later). Markets move in cycles, and your strategy might crush it in one but flop in another. Spread your strategy across different markets to smooth out the rough patches.
💡 Pro Tip : Don’t confuse this with over-trading. You’re diversifying, not chasing every pop.
4️⃣ Fine-Tune Your Time Frames
Your strategy might be solid on the 1-hour chart but struggle on the 5-minute or daily. Different time frames bring different opportunities and risks. Test your strategy across multiple time frames to see where it shines and where it stumbles.
💡 Pro Tip : Day traders? Shorten those time frames. Swing traders? Stretch ’em out. Find the sweet spot that aligns with your trading style.
5️⃣ Stay Agile with Market Conditions
No strategy is perfect for every market condition. What works in a trending market could blow up in a range-bound one. Optimize your strategy to adapt to volatility, volume, and trend shifts. Pay attention to news events , central bank meetings, and earnings reports — they can flip the script fast.
💡 Pro Tip : Learn to identify when your strategy isn’t working and take a step back. Not every day is a trading day.
6️⃣ Incorporate Multiple Indicators (But Don’t Go Overboard)
More indicators = more profits, right? Wrong. It’s easy to fall into the trap of loading up your charts with a dozen indicators until you’re drowning in lines and signals. Keep it simple — combine 3 to 5 complementary indicators that confirm your strategy’s signals, and ditch the rest.
💡 Pro Tip : Use one indicator for trend confirmation and another for entry/exit timing.
7️⃣ Keep Tweaking, But Don’t Blow Out of Proportion
Here’s the rub: There’s a fine line between optimization and over-optimization. Adjusting your strategy too much based on past data can lead to overfitting — your strategy works perfectly on historical data but crashes in live markets. Keep tweaking, but always test those tweaks in live conditions to make sure they hold up.
💡 Pro Tip : Keep a trading journal to track your tweaks. If you don’t track it, you won’t know what’s working and what’s not. Get familiar with the attributes of a successful trading plan with one of our top-performing Ideas: What’s in a Trading Plan?
💎 Bonus: Never Stop Learning
The market’s constantly changing and your strategy needs to change with it. Keep studying, keep testing, and keep learning. The moment you think you’ve mastered the market is the moment it humbles you.
Optimizing a trading strategy isn’t a one-and-done deal—it’s an ongoing process. By fine-tuning, testing, and staying flexible, you can keep your strategy sharp, profitable, and ahead of the curve. Optimize smart, trade smart!