The Breakthrough StrategyGreetings, traders! Welcome to this short, 7-step strategy lesson.
Are you new to trading? Don't worry: we're dedicated toward providing the most high-quality, easy-to-understand, and straight-to-the-point investing education to the TradingView community. This strategy lesson is beginner-friendly (we have pictures!), as we've inserted helpful links into each and every term, just in case you don't know them yet. Anyways, let's get right into the steps of this effective trading method , which we've named " The Breakthrough Strategy ":
• STEP 1, The Breakthrough:
Identify a breakout (or "breakthrough") at the most recent Support/Resistance (S&R) zone. With the horizontal line tool, if you haven't already, mark the level at which price broke: this will be your potential Entry Point (EP).
• STEP 2, The Turnaround:
Immediately following the breakout, you'll wanna see two or more consecutive candlesticks, going in the same direction of the breakout. After the streak, when you spot the first completely-formed candle, going in the opposite direction, you've found your "turnaround" point! Mark it up with a S&R line: this will be your potential Take Profit (TP) level.
• STEP 3, The Other Side:
Now, identify the most recent S&R zone, on the opposite side of the breakout zone: this will be your potential Stop Loss (SL) level.
• STEP 4, The Average:
Make sure that you have your Exponential Moving Average (EMA, 50) installed on TradingView. Is the end of it between the EP and the SL? Perfect! You're ready for the next step.
• STEP 5, The Order:
Place a Limit Order (TP, SL, and EP levels are mentioned in the previous steps). If, before price hits the Entry Point, things start to get choppy, close the pending order: it is now invalid.
• STEP 6, The Execution:
Did price hit your Entry Point? The order has been triggered —we're in! Good job, good luck, and hope for some profits.
• STEP 7, The Final Step:
"Practice makes perfect," so make sure that you backtest this method, to test it out before using it on the live market. Be sure to follow us, for future lessons which will help you significantly increase the power of this strategy!
We hoped that this helped you! We ask that you pay it forward, and share this lesson with a friend, a fellow trader, or... heck... share it with your grandmother.
“My mission is to help you see forex for what it is: it’s not ‘rocket science,’ but a simple strategy game. Get on the ‘good side’ of probability, develop the proper mindset, and you will prosper.”
— Nio Pomilia, Forex Free Press
Strategy!
Head and Shoulders PatternThis is just one example that we mustn't expect perfection. If everything were perfect everyone could be billionaire and to be one could be so much easier. Should we expect life to be easy? I think it would be boring. Hahaha. A little challenge is good for us, when we put in diligent effort to learn something and achieve some measure of success we become proud of ourselves, deep inside we praise ourselves for accomplishing something.
Trading is not easy as the books portray it, it was designed not to be easy, but if we take time to learn it we can make it a bit easier for ourselves and the rewards that comes thereafter are much greater.
Trade Smart!
Do not forget to like, share, comment and follow if you enjoy my ideas.
I will be thankful!
The Best Way To Risk
Let's consider two trading scenarios and learn how to use the R risk control system.
The risk control system is the most important component of any strategy. A trader who takes risks irresponsibly has no right to expect a positive outcome in his long-term trading journey.
The main principle of the approach is that the loss is always limited, but the profits are not. Considering in each trade, the stop loss is equal to 1R, in a profitable trade, one must get at least 2R.
Scenario 1 (see graph)
In the first scenario, a professional trader keeps track of the trades, controls risks and analyzes the results of the series.
Scenario 2 (see graph)
In the second scenario, the trader wants quick results, does not control position size, does not use stop orders, and trades on a whim.
Risk R
"R" - the amount of risk, a fixed amount in US dollars.
In each trade, the stop loss is located at such a level from the entry point that the loss upon reaching it will not exceed the specified dollar amount.
Example # 1
We have an entry point and a level where we want to place a stop loss
Let's say the volume of trading capital is $1000
In each trade, we risk no more than 3% ($30 - for those that might say its too much - GO GET A JOB) of the capital
Our R = $30
It follows that when the stop loss is reached, the loss will be no more than 1R ($30)
Take profit should be positioned so that the risk to reward ratio is at least 1 to 2(since anything beyond 63% win rate is hardly sustainable in a long run). Accordingly, having learned the value of stop loss 1R, you need to multiply the figures by 2 and place a take profit by measuring from the entry point. Thus, when the price reaches our take profit, we will receive + 3R ($90)
Example # 2
The risk per trade is $100 (1R = $100)
Losing trade -1R (- $100)
Profitable deal + 3R (+ $300)
You make 110 trades, of which 75 are unprofitable, 35 are profitable
1R ($100) multiplied by 75 losing trades = - $7,500
3R ($300) multiplied by 35 profitable trades = + $10,500
Subtract the total loss from profit $10,500- $7,500 = $3,000
Series total: + $3,000
Example # 3 (crypto)
You bought 100 coins at $1/coin and placed a stop loss at $0.95 per coin
Your risk per trade R1 = ($5)
Take profit is set at 1.15 per coin
If you sell at the stop loss level, you will lose 1R = ($5)
If you sell at the take profit level, you will earn 3R = ($15)
Take all the "R" s in a given time, add them up and you have a pure "R" for your strategy. If the result is positive, then the strategy works, if negative, then you should think about replacing the strategy with a more effective one.
Can we create the strategy that can wining the market??Hi guys, im guaddi min homie.
I will give you two options:
1. Have stable profits in the market on a regular basis
2. Get rich quick in a short time but potentially lose all your profits quickly
You will definitely choose the first option,right?. You've heard a lot of people make hundreds of thousands of dollars a day, but that's just the surface,maybe make a profit today, but the next day they will lose more than your profit. In fact, anyone can make money from trading but there are quite a few people who make a steady profit. When people enter their trades on impulse, they can make a profit for a while but can't make a profit in the long run.If you want to be a professional in trading, you must create your own trading strategy. Are professional traders good predictors of the future??? That's definitely not the case. We think we have to learn a lot of this, a lot of that, this indicator, this candlestick pattern To be able to accurately predict the next direction of the market. And of course that's not the case. The key of succes trading is the trading strategy have a good RR ratio and reasonable winrate with that RR. Or perhaps, in some cases your win rate can be very high along with the profit is also very large.
To create a stable trading strategy according to the price action method or indicator, the first job is to identify the trend. You can use moving averages or draw trendlines. You can refer to strategies on youtube, forums or create your own strategies with indicators, or simply just resistance, support,...Remember no one strategy can has a 100% win rate,like I said, the win rate is just enough and the RR rate is good.
I have a position with 100 USD account, if I win I get 1.5 USD if I lose I lose 1 USD but the win rate of this order is 50%,For every 100 orders like that, my average profit is 25 USD. However in trading, we can raise 50% win higher or 1.5 USD profit to 2 USD profit. You can set a fixed stop loss for example 2USD ,5USD and set the take profit 1.5 times the stop loss.Your risk should only be from 2-4% of your account. Doing so, in the short term you may lose, but in the long term, you will definitely make a profit.
I don't rate strategies with high win rate but low return/profit .I just need a strategy that has a 50% win rate with a RR ratio of 1/2 or 1/1.5
Your trading strategy may have a losing streak of up to 5 even 7, but your win rate is 50% with RR ratio 1/2.So in the long term you will never lose.Such losing streaks are extremely normal and you don't need to worry because you still have a long term advantage.
I have met people who every time they lose 2-3 in a row the emotional side kicks in and they start trying to develop a better strategy, despite having thoroughly tested their strategy and knowing that It is very beneficial.Because they don't stick to that really good strategy.
If you have created a really good strategy for yourself then congratulations, you have a formula for winning the market, all you need to do is be patient and patient,the ratio is quite high in the case that you should not break the trading principle(In cases, you will have to make decisions and those will help you to grow up), and remember just follow the trend.
See you in my other posts, thanks.
What is a Call option ?How Do Call Options Work? What Is a Call Option?
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Call options are financial contracts that give the option buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy a stock, bond, commodity or other asset or instrument at a specified price within a specific time period. The stock, bond, or commodity is called the underlying asset. A call buyer profits when the underlying asset increases in price.
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How Do Call Options Work?
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Since call options are derivative instruments, their prices are derived from the price of an underlying security, such as a stock. For example, if a buyer purchases the call option of ABC at a strike price of $100 and with an expiration date of December 31, they will have the right to buy 100 shares of the company any time before or on December 31. The buyer can also sell the options contract to another option buyer at any time before the expiration date, at the prevailing market price of the contract. If the price of the underlying security remains relatively unchanged or declines, then the value of the option will decline as it nears its expiration date.
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Use Of Call Options
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Investors use call options for the following purposes:
🔵 Speculation
Call options allow their holders to potentially gain profits from a price rise in an underlying stock while paying only a fraction of the cost of buying actual stock shares. They are a leveraged investment that offers potentially unlimited profits and limited losses (the price paid for the option). Due to the high degree of leverage, call options are considered high-risk investments.
Trade Review: How I been making consistent 80% returns W/ PROOF!In this video I will reviewing trades I took on the first week of August. going full in depth explaining how I traded these tickers with a new strategy i been testing with Inside Candles Credit: TW for his indicator and his strategy! Traded these tickers using my knowledge of technical Analysis , sharing my levels: Support & Resistance , my trendlines , Fibs, Waves, Price Action, Channels , Emma's, and prior experienced , while providing both bullish & bearish scenarios for you to be able to understand my analysis and wait for confirmation as always!
Want to see more content like this? Make sure to Like and Subscribe!
📚EDUCATION: THE BASICS OF TRADING EXPLAINED📚
Hello, Traders!
The basics of what it takes to be a successful trader are simple and obvious
Yet daily, I see traders who fail at one or multiple KEY points that sink their performance and they keep losing accounts even though these people do have the understanding of the market that would have been sufficient enough for them to be profitable if they followed the basic rules. Trading is as much about pattern recognition and capacity for abstract thinking as it is about the personality type, self-discipline, and specific mindset.
The lucky few are born fit for trading, but others might train themselves.
Below, is the breakdown of the basics behind the day trading!
✅ TRADING IS A BUSINESS NOT GAMBLING
99% of the new traders have unrealistic expectations of the kind of returns trading might deliver. To make matters worse, they do not realize that it will take years of trial and error before they can make trading Their only source of income.
These delusions make the newbies treat trading like gambling. To AVOID this, please follow these 4 easy steps:
🔥SET AND KEEP YOUR RISK-REWARD.
I recommend risking no more than 1% of the deposit per each trade, which also implies using a variable lot size for every trade, so that no matter the SL
size in pips, or the pair you are trading, the dollar value of the RIKS remains the same with each trade. That way, you are in full control of the risks you
are taking.
🔥DO NOT GO ALL IN.
Sounds obvious, but I’ve seen it so many times. New traders, who lost 70% of the account, GO ALL IN on one trade that they think might help them
recover the balance. That is NEITHER a way to trade, nor a way to learn. Slowly losing your account while learning how to trade, is simply a fee that you
are paying the market for your education. Accept it or fail.
🔥PROTECT CAPITAL=USE SL
I can’t stress this enough and I BEG YOU to use SL. Do NOT enter the trade thinking that if the SL level that you had in mind is hit you will close
manually. You will NOT close the position, and the longer you hold it the more is the temptation to wait a bit more because it seems that the reversal is
coming soon.
🔥CUT LOSSES
Set a daily loss limit. For example, you can Ban yourself from trading for the rest of the day if you lost more than 3 trades in a row. You will enter what
is called a tilt most likely, and you will NOT be productive that day. The same goes for a week. Lost more than 10% of the account in a week? Next week
NO TRADING for you. Watch the market passively, or trade on the demo! By the way, That can be helpful even for professional traders too!
✅KEEPING A COOL HEAD IS KEY
The ideal trader is the one who can set all emotions aside as a robot would, while simultaneously keeping the versatility of the human mind and the intuition, that the machines lack(yet). It is of utmost importance for the new traders to understand that being right about the direction but entering too early or too late is the same as being WRONG because the result will be a LOSS.
Here is how to keep cool:
🔥CONTROL YOUR EMOTIONS.
Both euphoria and a panic attack are your enemies so the more detached you are, the better. Emotions are for the casino, and we are doing business
here, remember?
🔥AVOID FOMO( FEAR OF MISSING OUT)
That one applies mostly to the trades that you are not so sure about, but still want to take them, in fear of not making money. And the early entries are
determined by FOMO too( what if the price does not reach my limit order, and the trade plays out well, but without ME?)
FOMO is Incredibly counterproductive, don't let it control you!
🔥DON’T FOLLOW OTHERS
Avoid herd mentality! 99% of traders lose money, so doing what everyone does inevitably lands you in the 99% category.
🔥BUILD A WATCH LIST
A LOT of the beginners try to PREDICT behavior of the particular instrument that they decided to trade for some reason, instead of going through the
pairs looking for a ready setup that you KNOW works. The former approach leads to finding patterns, key levels, and setups that just aren’t there.
Naturally, the result of trading these is an inevitable LOSS.You should Build a watchlist big enough for your to have a choice, and go through it at
regular intervals, looking for opportunities but NOT INVENTING them.
✅ CONSISTENCY OVER BOOM-BUST STYLE
Consistent trading is the only way to make trading a reliable source of income. Slow but steady gains always beat leap-like boom-bust performance.
The psychological pressure of the latter will most likely break you sooner or later, and who needs gray hair in their 30es anyway?
That is how you achieve consistency:
🔥FIND A STRATEGY
Do the research on multiple trading strategies and pick those that you understand and that are compatible with your personality.
🔥USE PAPER TRADING AND BACKTESTING
To select which strategy is right for you, use backtesting to see how the strategy performed in the past. And use paper trading to see how the strategy
works in real-time.Once you chose the strategy, go back to paper trading and backtesting to polish it.
🔥TRACK YOUR TRADES
Keeping track of your trading! Working with that data is an invaluable tule for the trader, that helps identify your strengths and weaknesses, while also
helping you notice patterns in your trading that would have been left unrecognized otherwise.
🔥FORMALIZE YOUR RULES
Objectivity is KEY for consistent trading because during the rough patches of the market, being sure of your rules helps you stay in the market, waiting
for the tailwind, instead of questioning your strategy or your implementation of it. Create a strict ALGORITHM and follow it step by step. In order to do
that, you need to define every element of your strategy as precisely as possible. For example, a level for you is a daily horizontal level with at least 3
touchpoints, a breakout is valid only if the 4H candle closed above the level, etc...
The less vague the terms, the fewer emotions will be involved in deciding whether to enter the trade or not.
❗️ IN CONCLUSION: If you want to become a trader, remember:
1- It will take YEARS to learn how to trade.
2- You will lose a TON of money in the process
3- You will FAIL with 95% probability.
4-Realistic returns from trading are WAY lower than you think
5-BUT when you succeed, you will set yourself free!
Please SUPPORT This Idea By A LIKE and COMMENT!
the chalk or the longshot - pick your poisonUVXY traded upward 20% on 3 January 2020. that was the day the Iranian General, Solemani, was - pick your characterization basd on your politics - murdered assassinated etc. In February 2018 UVXY rose 110% in one session. In March 2020 The Covid spike was $12 to $130 in two weeks. Absent these outliers, UVXY has dropped from over $30,000 in 5 years with the most recent reverse split to $28 today. Along the way there are always these short term interuption of the downward bias based on fear. Fear fuels the spikes. whether it is SPY fear, volatility in all world markets or the spectre of Iranian oil market retaliation. The portfolio of UVXY is completely available cash and the purchase and sale of short dated volatility instruments that are rolled every month. Time decay erodes the portfolio until the spikes occur.
Yesterday UVXY Net asset value dropped 10%.
Those who thing that some volatility should be in a portfolio for the downside protection,r for the gain on instability can today buy the risk on cost to hedge for 48 days at $2.50 with unlimited upside gain. It is possible to reduce that cost with a put vertical that has a lose $2.15 and gain $15 hedge that expires in mid September with a complete loss.
A larger portfolio that has a dividend aristocrat leaning will likely sell the common or buy a September $29/$15 put veertical for $704 to earn $698.
Why the discrepancy? The pricing tells the story. A trend that is inexhortably downward yielding less, or a guess as to the upward spike in volatility.
the chalk is downward. the longshot is the volatility spike for any narratice the investor chooes to believe.
HOW TO: Center Of Gravity OscillatorIf I could only have one indicator it would need to be versatile. It would need to able to confirm trends, highlight pivots and reversals but most of all it would need to expose epic entries. Lucky there is such an indicator... The Center of Gravity Oscillator (COG).
The COG is yet another masterpiece created by John Ehlers. It is essentially zero lag and enables clear identification of turning points. This indicator is a result of Ehlers research into adaptive filters and was published in an article on page 20 of the May 2002 issue of Stocks and Commodities Magazine. According to the Tradingview docs "The cog (center of gravity) is an indicator based on statistics and the Fibonacci golden ratio."
1. Breakout Trading
Breakout trading is one of the most popular trading strategies and rightly so, there is not much better than watching those candles fly to the moon.
Trend lines and wedges can be made by connecting 2 or more pivot points (as shown above). When the oscillator crosses the trend line traders can expect “boom” like explosions in price action.
Above is an example of a breakout.
Below I’ve marked out some breakouts on 1 hr BTC chart.
Epic breakouts can be found by drawing a trend line along major pivot points. The major pivots should be easy to spot as they stick out above and below the minor pivots. (As shown below on 1 hour chart.)
There are many oscillators that can also pick up breakouts, below are some breakouts marked on the BTC 12 hour chart with my Volatility Oscillator.
Smaller breakouts can be found by drawing a fan from major pivot to minor pivots.
Ive marked out the most obvious breakouts on the ETH Daily chart below.
Along the way I found some LSMA pumps, which leads me to the next strategy…
2. LSMA Breakouts.
Least Squares Moving Average is my favourite moving average and I incorporate it in one way or another with most of my scripts. To understand a LSMA breakout have a look at the LSMA 21 line on the chart below. As the candles cross the line it breaks out.
The default setting for the LSMA line on my COG indicator is 200. This is a great “zero” line and shows general trend. To catch LSMA breakouts I set the COG length to 6 and LSMA length to 6. The LSMA can also be set to 21 to find breakouts and LSMA Pumps (don’t worry, I’ll get to it soon).
Easy to find sweet entries on the BTC 1 hr chart.
3. What is a LSMA pump???
This is when a LSMA line pulls back and crosses another line for just a few bars before recrossing into a boom. Ive marked out a few LSMA pumps on the chart above. I like to use COG set at length of 6 and LSMA set to 21 for trading hourly to daily charts.
4. Trading Reversal Patterns.
If you are not familiar with reversal patterns such as double tops, double bottoms or head and shoulders then it would be a good idea to look into it. These are fundamentals of reading charts.
The COG is great for trading these patters too.
Above shows reversal patterns marked out.
5. Previous High/Low Strategy
This is another chart reading fundamental. This strategy can be used to find solid long and short entries. He is an example below using no indicators.
This example is a down trend that turns into an up trend. The first entry is a short found when price is unable to beat previous high. The second entry is a long. This is the confirmation of the up trend. Notice how the the low pivot point is higher than previous pivot. Next a short reveals itself again as price is unable to beat previous highs. The next long entry is made as up trend is reconfirmed by a low pivot forming higher than previous low pivot. Lastly another short as price is unable to beat previous high.
Now to apply this to the COG…
Above shows a nice long and short on the major pivots. The first trade is a long. As the major low pivot is made it does not break previous major pivot low and thus is a great long entry. Price then breaks out and forms a major high pivot point which does not break previous major pivot high making a great short entry.
The next example shows trading on continuations of trends.
A major Pivot is made. Long entries are found every time the the lows keep getting higher. Often these are LSMA pumps.
Above is another example of finding solid entries.
Here I have marked the entries on a 1 hour ETH chart using this strategy. It is great for swing trading.
6. Tuning your indicator.
Indicator settings should depend on what timeframe and what trades you are looking for. Its always a great idea to play with the settings and get the signals as accurate as possible.
COG lengths to try: 3-6, 9-14, 21-27, 50-55, 100, 200.
LSMA lengths to try: 2,6,9,11,19,21,25,27,32,50,100,150,200
In the indicator settings there is an option for smoothing. I usually have this turned on.
The centre of gravity oscillator is one of the most underrated indicators out. It gives solid signals and Im sure there is plenty more that I have not mentioned here. I am currently working on including all these signals into the indicator so you can set alerts or run bots. So far it looks like a Christmas tree with all those signals and needs work….
If you have any questions or ideas please drop a comment below. I am always keen to talk shop.
You can find my COG indicator here:
Join me on Bybit! They have the lowest fees and best servers. It’s free to join and we both get $20 if you use my referral link.
partner.bybit.com
Thanks for the support and happy trading!
I Show You My Trading Strategy Applied On EURUSDHi, I decided to share my profitable trading strategy which is really simple by the way.
I use trend lines, supports and resistances. I don't use any other indicator. It is maybe not the best but for sure the best that fit my psychology and my lifestyle.
Hope this helps !
An easy yet super efficient trading strategy for any marketAn amazing combo strategy for trading.
Steps:
1. INTRUCTIONS
Plot the 7, 14, 33, 60 on the chart
Lets assume we use a 1h chart. For this we will plot on the support and resistance levels onto the chart using the 4hr or daily chart values.
For other timeframes, change the values with a 4-8x difference.
For this example I took BTCUSDT 1h, and you can see that the support and resistence on 4h is making the 30.5k - 41k channel more or less.
2. RULES
Once we have established and marked the territory zones , lets get down to business.
For the best results, it is best to enter the market when you find price hovering around a support or resistance level. Once price paints a confirmation candle you can enter the market, or you could wait until the 7 MA has crossed the
14 MA.
Entries at MAJOR support and resistance levels are key and will provide a greater return.
Always exit your trades once price returns to another support or resistance area. You can use the 33 and 60 MA as a stair stepper to get out of the market to protect your equity on your trades. However, re-entering the market once
you get confirmation of the market continuing in the original direction is a safe move.
Below you can find some examples for BTCUSDT 1H
3. RISK MANAGEMENT
For STOP LOSS you can use the value below the support zone, while for TP you can use either the resistence point or the support zone from the 33 or 60 SMA or a multiplier of the original distance below the support zone .
What Does the Ichimoku Cloud Tell You?The technical indicator shows relevant information at a glance by using averages.
The overall trend is up when the price is above the cloud, down when the price is below the cloud, and trendless or transitioning when the price is in the cloud.
When Leading Span A is rising and above Leading Span B, this helps to confirm the uptrend and the space between the lines is typically colored green. When Leading Span A is falling and below Leading Span B, this helps confirm the downtrend. The space between the lines is typically colored red in this case.
Traders will often use the Ichimoku Cloud as an area of support and resistance depending on the relative location of the price. The cloud provides support/resistance levels that can be projected into the future. This sets the Ichimoku Cloud apart from many other technical indicators that only provide support and resistance levels for the current date and time.
Traders should use the Ichimoku Cloud in conjunction with other technical indicators to maximize their risk-adjusted returns. For example, the indicator is often paired with the relative strength index (RSI), which can be used to confirm momentum in a certain direction. It’s also important to look at the bigger trends to see how the smaller trends fit within them. For example, during a very strong downtrend, the price may push into the cloud or slightly above it, temporarily, before falling again. Only focusing on the indicator would mean missing the bigger picture that the price was under strong longer-term selling pressure.
Crossovers are another way that the indicator can be used. Watch for the conversion line to move above the base line, especially when the price is above the cloud. This can be a powerful buy signal. One option is to hold the trade until the conversion line drops back below the base line. Any of the other lines could be used as exit points as well.
ESSENTIAL FOREX TRADING CONCEPTS YOU SHOULD KNOWI want to start by talking about something that I frequently see when trading and “how-to” trade is being discussed. The concept of trading having to be simplistic and not too complex, that the simpler your trading is, the better. Having a simplistic approach to trading is not realistic; you must balance trading between simplicity and complexity. There’s a reason why 90-95% of “trying-to-be-traders” never become or will be consistently profitable. Think of it in terms of having data; if you have limited data, your system or edge won’t be effective. Most likely, it will be random. But having too much data and information can be overwhelming and too confusing to do anything with it.
So the question becomes, how do you balance your trading approach between simplicity and complexity? We do this by understanding that trading falls into three categories. And by knowing the components and elements of each category, we can define the way we trade so that our decision-making and observations are guided by objectivity. Basically, a well-formed trading setup consists of these three elements.
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RISK DISCLAIMER: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my videos as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this channel. This content is for educational purposes only and is not tax, legal, financial, or professional advice. Any action you take on the information in this video is strictly at your own risk. We, therefore, recommend that you contact a personal financial advisor before carrying out specific transactions and investments. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Inotfancy.com and all individuals affiliated with this channel assume no responsibility for your trading and investment results.
The Crystal ball Strategy - How to Look into the future.There seems to be an endless amount of strategies out there, some promise fast returns while others promise consistency. Recently Ive started to gain some followers and have had some requests for strategies. Well today Im going to share one of my crackpot strategies I call "The Crystal Ball Strategy". This is not like most strategies that rely on indicators, in fact it uses no indicators at all. I don't often trade this one but every now and then I will use it to confirm a trade before placing an order. I stumbled upon to this while I living in the 1 second charts trying to script the perfect entry bot. I started to notice the loops would start on the 1 second chart then make there way to the 30 second, then the 1 min. The next day I would see the pattern on the 1 hour chart. Its like looking into a crystal ball and seeing the future.
How it works.
Its as simple as opening a split screen with a 1 min char and a 60 min chart. On the 1 min chart find the beginning of the current trend that you are looking at on the 1 hour chart. For the example I am using Bitcoin. Now its just a matter of comparing the two charts. If they are the same (which they normally are) you can setup your trade knowing if it is going to be a long or short and even how good it will be and where to exit. All the data for the 1 hour trend is stored in the first wave. Just a word of warning that things happen along the way like dumps that will change the future but if things coast along fine the 1 hour chart will usually match up with what you saw on the 1 min chart yesterday.
Here you can see the 2 charts lined up. The 1 min chart is marked in a yellow box on the 1 hour chart. I have broken up the different parts for comparison. In this example the charts suggest to place a short.
This is scrolled back left, you can see the 2 charts match characteristics.
Im sharing this for educational purposes only and have not backtested it enough. I just figure some people may be interested and strongly urge you to not run out and put on a "YOLO".
S&P 500: BASELINE | Investing and Trading for BeginnersIn this video I'm going over a way to start building an investment or trading strategy. Why is a strategy important? A strategy is a plan for survival in this financial world.
With me (and some* others), you'll learn that such a plan is crucial for the success of the portfolio because the main focus is TIMING. More questions arise from that but it's best to focus on one question at a time.
No its not a picture of Mickey Mouse...🐭It's a super clear diagram on what key ingredients you need to find the 'sweet spot' = profitability.
The thing is, most people are desperately hunting for the holy-grail, you know - that 100% winning strategy... the silver bullet.
It doesn't exist - I'm sorry. 😢
So even a profitable strategy that's awesome can blow your account if the other 'factors' are not considered....
Greed and risk management.
With poor risk management you can blow your account on a profitable strategy.
Much like if the casino didn't set a trade limit - they could go bust if a gambler got 'lucky' - because its the casino that has the mathematical 'edge', right?
You must factor in your losing runs to ensure you not exposing your account to the 'risk of ruin'.
So yeah a profitable 'edge' is key, but without managing your mindset and using effective risk management, its actually useless too.
Having an understanding of probability is fine too - but if you don't execute your 'edge' or if you don't have one, you won't be profitable too.
And lastly, yeah - you can have your risk management nailed on - but if you've not got a profitable edge too, you'll lose money.
Just less money.
You could absorb 500 consecutive losses on a £1000 account at 1% risk per trade, but you'd only have about £6 left. Your strategy would have to be really poor for that to happen!
But you catch my drift, that effective risk management is vital.
So in summary, you need these three key ingredients...
Strategy with an Edge
Effective Risk Management planning for probability
Trading Psychology - (greed under control, no fear, discipline, resilience, etc)
You can't get to the 'sweet spot' without all 3 being in perfect alignment.
Good luck.
Darren
If this helps - please show me by liking this post if you can, its appreciated and I'll do more like this 😎
Option Strike Price "Secrets" In this article you will learn...
- what a strike price is,
- the different intervals for strike prices,
- how to pick the right strike price,
… and much more.
Let’s get started.
1.) The basics: What is the strike price?
Strike Price Definition:
The strike price of an option is the price at which the option buyer has the right to buy or sell an underlying security.
As an example, if you are buying a CALL option of AAPL with a strike price of 126, then you have the right to BUY 100 shares of AAPL for $126.
And if you are buying a PUT option of AAPL with a strike price of 125, then you have the right to SELL 100 shares of AAPL for $125.
Strike Price Intervals
When you open an options chain, you will see all the different strike prices that are available.
The strike price intervals are set by the options exchange and will change depending on market conditions and the price of the underlying stock.
There are four commonly used strike price intervals: $1, $2.50, $5, and $10.
There are currently no strict standards and the exchange reviews and decides on the strike price interval of each optionable stock from time to time in order to adjust policies to better cater to trading needs.
Here are some general guidelines provided by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE):
- 2.50 points strike price interval is used when the underlying stock is trading between $5 and $25,
- 5 points strike price interval is used when the stock is trading between $25 and $200,
- and 10 points strike price interval is used when the stock price is over $200.
But these are just guidelines. The options exchanges decide on strike price intervals based on market demand and trader’s needs) more than any strict mathematical formula.
In the example above, you see that AAPL is trading at about$127.
So according to the guidelines, the strike price interval should be $5.
But since AAPL is a very volatile stock that currently moves $2.50 per day on average, which is around 2% per day, the $5 strike price intervals wouldn’t make sense.
That’s why the exchange decides to only offer $10 intervals to best serve the trader.
Strike Price, Option Premium & “Moneyness”
When buying or selling an option, you must choose a strike price, and often you will hear terms like:
- In-The-Money (ITM),
- At-The-Money (ATM),
- or Out-Of-The-Money (OTM).
I call this the “Moneyness” of an option.
In-The-Money Options Strike Prices (ITM)
TM Call Options will have strike prices below the current stock price.
And ITM Put Options will have strike prices above the current stock price.
In the example above, AAPL is trading at around $127 right now.
Therefore, the strike prices of 125 and below are considered ITM for Call options.
And the strike prices of 128 and above are considered ITM for Put options.
At-The-Money Options Strike Price (ATM)
An ATM option would be the closest strike price to the current market price of the stock.
For our AAPL example (The current price is about $127), the strike prices of 126 and 127 are the closest strikes to the market.
So these strikes are considered ATM for both Call and Put options.
Out-Of-The-Money Options Strike Prices (OTM)
An OTM Call Option’s strike price would be above the current market price of the stock.
With an OTM Put Option, the strike price would be below the current market price of the stock.
For our AAPL example (The current price is about $127), the strike prices of 128 and above are considered OTM for Call options.
And the strike prices of 125 and below are considered OTM for Put options.
2.) How to Pick the Right Strike Price
Wow! So many strike prices!
So how do you pick the right option strike price?
Are some strike prices more desirable than others?
Absolutely!
It really depends on what you are trying to accomplish:
Do you want to BUY an option and make money?
Do you want to SELL an option, collect premium and let it expire worthless or
Do you want to SELL an option, collect premium, and get assigned?
For now, let’s keep it easy.
Let’s say you want to make money with a CALL option.
Call option strike price example
We will use AAPL again as an example.
Right now, AAPL is trading at about $127.
Let’s say you’re bullish AAPL and expect Apple to move up to 135 within the next month.
If you were to look at an options chain, you would have several choices.
a.) You can buy a cheap OTM option with a strike price of 135.
The last price of the option was $0.86.
Since options come in “100 packs”, you would have to pay $86 for the option.
This would allow you to buy 100 shares of AAPL at a price of $135.
b.) You can buy an ATM option with a strike price of 127.
This option is more expensive. The last traded price was $3.80, so you would have to invest $380 for this option.
And this option would allow you to buy 100 shares of AAPL at a price of $127.
c.) You can buy an ITM option with a strike price of 124.
This option is the most expensive. The last traded price was $5.90, so you would have to invest $590 for this option.
And this option would allow you to buy 100 shares of AAPL at a price of $124.
Now let’s say that AAPL never goes back up to $135.
Let’s say that on expiration day (June 11), AAPL is trading at $134:
a.) OTM Option with a strike price of 135
This option allows you to buy 100 shares of AAPL at $135.
Since AAPL is trading at 134, that wouldn’t make sense.
Why would you pay MORE for 100 shares of AAPL than the underlying stock price?
So this option is worth nothing, and you lose the $86 option premium that you paid.
b.) ATM Option with a strike price of 127
This option allows you to buy 100 shares of AAPL at $127.
Since AAPL is trading at 134, you could buy 100 shares at $127 and immediately sell them for $134.
In this case, you would make 134–127 = 7 per share.
1 option allows you to buy 100 shares, so your profit is $700.
You paid $380 for this option and make $700.
That’s a net profit of 700–380 = 320 or 84% based on your initial investment!
c.) ITM Option with a strike price of 124
This option allows you to buy 100 shares of AAPL at $124.
Since AAPL is trading at 134, you could buy 100 shares at $124 and immediately sell them for $134.
In this case, you would make 134–124 = $10 per share.
1 option allows you to buy 100 shares, so your profit is $1,000.
But you paid $590 for this option to make $1,000.
So the net profit of this trade is 1,000–590 = 410 or 69% based on your initial investment.
Let’s review:
OTM Option: $86 loss
ATM Option: $320 profit = 84%
ITM Option: $410 profit = 69%
As you can see from this example, it’s super important to pick the right strike price.
The underlying security (AAPL) moved from $127 to $134. That’s a 5.5% move.
Often traders who are new to options pick the cheapest options contract, i.e. the OTM option.
But you would have lost the whole option premium.
So should you pick the most expensive one?
As you can see in this example, picking the most expensive option (i.e. ITM option) would have yielded the higher DOLLAR amount.
But in terms of Return on Investment (ROI), the ITM option was best.
Based on the trading strategy that you use, I can give you several guidelines on how to pick the right strike price.
In a nutshell, when you are BUYING options, you want to buy an ATM or ITM options contract.
And when you are SELLING options, you want to sell OTM options.
More about that later.
3.) Three Important Things You Need To Know
There are 3 more things you need to know when about strike prices when trading options:
What happens when a call option hits the strike price?
What would have happened if AAPL would have traded above the strike price of $135 before expiration?
Nothing — unless you choose to exercise the option.
But if this happens before the expiration date, then it would be better to sell the option since you would make more money.
How do I change my strike price once the trade has been placed already?
You can’t.
You need to choose a strike price when you enter the trade, and you can’t change it while you are in a trade.
You can only “roll” the option, and here’s how it works:
Let’s say you bought the OTM option with a strike price of $135.
And you realize that it was too ambitious and that AAPL probably won’t hit 135 before the expiration date.
So you could “roll” the option by selling your 135 call and simultaneously buying the 132 call.
What Is Spot Price and Strike Price?
The SPOT PRICE is the current price of the underlying security, so using AAPL as an example, Apple’s current spot price, at the time of this writing, is $126.76 which is the price it’s currently trading.
The STRIKE PRICE is the price at which you can buy or sell the shares of the underlying security on or before expiration.
Summary
s you can see, picking the right option strike price is extremely important.
It will affect your returns and it could even make or break you in the market.
In a nutshell, when you are a BUYER, you want to buy ATM or ITM options since even a small move in the underlying stock price can yield double-digit returns.
When you are a SELLER, it’s the opposite: You want to sell OTM options that have a low probability of getting assigned.
Sell In May and Go Away?You might have heard the saying “Sell in May and go away.”
It is an old investing adage that has been around for decades, but does it actually work?
In this blog post, we are going to find out what’s best to do.
We will discuss:
1. What is the meaning behind “Sell in May and go away?”
2. Does sell in May and go away work?
3. Should you sell in May and go away?
4. Two reasons not to sell in May and what to do instead.
Let’s get started:
1. What Is The Meaning Behind “Sell In May And Go Away?”
The saying “Sell in May and go away” has been around for a long time.
It was first recorded in 1937 by John Hill via The Financial Times of London.
The original saying was “Sell in May and come on back on St. Leger’s Day.”
This phrase refers to a custom of aristocrats, merchants, and bankers who would leave the city of London and escape to the country during the hot summer months.
St. Leger’s Day refers to the St. Leger’s Stakes, a thoroughbred horse race held in mid-September and the last leg of the British Triple Crown.
And it seems that American traders have adopted the saying. Americans are more likely to spend more time on vacation between Memorial Day and Labor Day.
2. Does “Sell in May And Go Away” Work?
And indeed, for over 50 years, the stock market performance supported the theory behind the strategy.
From 1950 to around 2013, the DOW has had an average return of only 0.3% during the six-month period from May to October period.
In comparison, the Dow had an average gain of 7.5% during the November to April period.
So it seems that “Sell in May and Go away” is a strategy that may have worked for many years.
But In recent times, it seems like the strategy has fallen out of favor.
Technical analysts at Merrill Lynch looked at historical data and found THIS out:
Looking at 3-month seasonal data going back to 1928, the June-August period typically is the second-best of the year, with gains 63% of the time, and an average return of 2.97%!
3. Should You Sell In May And Go Away?
With all this conflicting data, does it make sense to sell in May and go away?
Is this a good investment strategy?
You know me — I always say “Trade What You See And Not What You Think!”
Always look at the market data!
As an example, last year, between May 4th and August 31st, 2020, the Nasdaq rose 28% (refer to chart).
If you would have sold in May and "gone away," you would have missed out on these gains.
4. Two Reasons Not To Sell In May And What To Do Instead
Maybe it makes sense to sell in May and go away when you’re an investor.
MAYBE...
But as a short-term trader like me, May is a GREAT month to trade, and here’s why:
I like to trade The Wheel Strategy . With this trading strategy, you are selling option premiums.
And there are 2 factors that influence options premiums:
- Volatility
When volatility is high, option premiums are higher.
The Volatility Index VIX for the past few month, has been pretty low in March and April.
But now, in May 2021, it's spiking up again.
This means that options premiums are higher, which is perfect for a seller like me:
I can get more premium!
- Down Days
Step 1 of The Wheel Strategy is selling puts, and you get more premium for puts on “Down Days” for such strategies.
According to the NASDAQ , thus far, in May 2021, we had 7 “down days” and only 4 “up days."
On “down days," there are many more trading opportunities.
Last week, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average had its worst week since February, I made $3,722 in profits.
Here Are Some Of My Trades In May:
Let’s take a look at these trades in more detail:
- Trade #1: Snapchat SNAP
Snapchat recently had some rough weeks.
In less than 2 months, it traded from a high of 72.50 to around $50 where it found some support.
Most retail investors would stay away from a stock like this but I saw an opportunity to “buy it at a discount” :
I sold Puts with a strike price of 47 and an expiration of 4 days.
If SNAP closed below $47 on May 14 (the expiration date), I would have gotten assigned and bought SNAP for $47. I would consider that a bargain.
If SNAP closed above $47, I would have just kept the premium that I received for selling calls. In this case, that’s $525.
SNAP did close above $47 on May 14, and I collected $525 for 4 days of exposure in the stock market.
- Trade #2: Square SQ
Square looked very similar:
Mid-February, the stock made a high of $280, but then it retreated to $200.
Most market participants would not trade a stock like this, but looking back over a six-month period, I saw some good
support around the $200 — $203 level.
I sold 5 Puts with a strike price of 202.50 and an expiration date of May 14th.
I received $100 in premium for each put, so I collected $500 in premium.
On May 14, SQ closed above $202.50, and I made $500 in only 4 days. That’s a very nice return.
- Other Trades I Took
I sold 119 Puts on Apple , sold 212.50 Puts on Boeing ,
And I sold 39.50 Puts on Dave & Busters .
All of these stocks have lost in value over the past few months.
Investors who follow a ‘buy-and-hold approach” would lose money in this scenario, but as an active investor, I can apply
trading strategies that make money even if the stock is going sideways or even moving lower.
Summary
“Sell in May and go away” is an old Wall Street adage that might be useful for buy-and-hold investors.
But active investors like me are always on the lookout for trading opportunities.
And with the right trading strategy, the increased volatility combined with markets that are moving lower is a dream come true.
You need to have the right trading strategy.
I personally like to use the PowerX Strategy for markets that are trending, and I trade The Wheel Strategy in
choppy market conditions as we experience right now.
With such a strategy, I am able to make money even if the stock is going sideways or lower.
I for one will NOT sell in May and go away!
Option strategy buy Straddle / StrangleIn this post, I will start from the example and then write the definitions.
Our example will be on Boeing (BA), a hypothetical analysis might be that BA was trading sideways for more than half a year. Previous to that BA was down in price for more than 50%, also there was a rally of 100% between May and June. The volatility in the markets starting to rise, due to Covid-19, election, lockdowns, blue or red waves, vaccines, other news, etc. The trader expects a large move but doesn’t sure in which direction. Also, the rise in volatility enters into consideration, by our trader.
The trader search for a strategy that can be profitable in any direction and a rise in volatility will benefit him.
Straddle buying
A straddle purchase consists of buying both calls and puts with the same stock, option striking price, and expiration date. The straddle purchase allows the buyer of the options to make large potential profits if the stock moves far enough in either direction. The strategy has a limited loss and theoretically unlimited profit.
Buying a straddle should be done on stocks that have the potential to be volatile, this strategy is even more attractive if the options premiums are relatively low, which makes the straddle cost less and if the volatility will rise the buyer will profit much quicker. In general, the probability if held to expiration is near ~40%.
Most of the traders don’t wait till expiration. The options are At the money.
The example on the chart:
Blue lines – profit lines, yellow lines – break-even, red lines – 50% of maximum loss reached. Red zone – in this area the strategy losses money.
The options are from 30/10/2020 close in BA.
The strategy bought for -> 47.35, meaning a debit is being paid.
Stock price-> 144 , Upper strike (call)-> 140, Lower strike (put)-> 140
Days-> 203, Impleid volatility-> 54.4% (0.544), date-> 30/10/2020
The maximum loss is the debit paid for the strategy, in this case, $4735, the chance to lose all of it is less than 1%, the price needs to finish at expiration exactly at the strike price of the options $140, which means all the options will be worthless.
If the price will finish exactly at $163.69 a loss of 50% of the debit paid will occur, the puts will be worthless but the calls still have some value, but less value than the debit paid. If the price will finish exactly at $116.33 the trader will also lose 50% from the debit, but now the calls are worthless and the puts have value.
If the price will finish between $116.33-$163.69, a loss of 50%-100% from the maximum profit will be realized.
The prices of $92.65 and $187.35 represent the prices at which the strategy will break-even. At the lower price, the calls will be worthless and the puts will have value, at the higher price the other way around.
Those prices can be calculated:
Upper break-even point -> the strike price + the debit paid = 140+47.35=187.35
Lower break-even point -> the strike price - the debit paid = 140-47.35=92.65
The strategy presented on the chart has 147 days, before starting to lose 50% of the maximum loss (Debit paid).
If at any point the stock price will reach the dark blue line the strategy will profit $4735 if the light blue line will be reached the profit will be $9470.
How implied volatility affects the position? (20% increase and decrease)
20% IV increase -The buyer wants the implied volatility to increase, the strategy will start profit much sooner. The purple zone is the new loss area, the new area is much smaller than the previous one. The break-even lines are much closer to the end date and each other. It will take more time to reach the 50% loss lines 173 days instead of 147 days.
20% IV decrease – If the implied volatility will decrease, the purple loss zone will grow substantially, the break-even lines will go farther from one another and the 50% loss line could be reached much sooner, 63 days instead of 147.
Strangle Buying
A strangle is a strategy that uses both calls and puts, which have the same expiration date, but different striking prices. The difference between a strangle and a straddle is that the options are now Out of the money, because of that the strangle cost less than the straddle.
The example on the new chart:
Blue lines – profit lines, yellow lines – break-even, purple lines – 50% of maximum loss reached. Red zone – in this area the strategy losses money.
The options are from 30/10/2020 close in BA.
The strategy bought for -> 23.95, meaning a debit is being paid.
Stock price-> 144 , Upper strike (call)-> 190, Lower strike (put)-> 125
Days-> 203, Impleid volatility-> 54.4% (0.544), date-> 30/10/2020
Those options were chosen because they have a Delta of 0.3
The maximum loss is (-$2395) if the price will be at expiration between the strikes 125-190, the strategy will lose all the debit. (Broken red lines)
The other lines are the same concept as the straddle and their outcome is shown on the chart.
The break-even point calculation at expiration:
Upper break-even point -> the upper strike price + the debit paid = 190+23.95=213.95
Lower break-even point -> the lower strike price - the debit paid = 125-23.95=101.05
The strangle presented on the chart has 101 days, before starting to lose 50% of the maximum loss (Debit paid).
The increase and decrease in volatility will have the same effects, thus in the buyer analysis will anticipate an increase in volatility.
This post is related to previous posts.
You can come back and see what will happen with this particular example.
If you have any questions, please ask.
Options vs Stocks: Which Is Better?If you are wondering whether to trade options vs stocks, then this article is for you. There’s no simple answer to that question because it depends on how much money you have and your risk tolerance level.
This blog post will cover the 7 topics that you need to know to answer the question “Is Options Trading Better Than Stocks?”
1. What Is The Difference Between Buying Stocks and Buying Options?
Let’s keep it simple:
When you buy a stock, then you own a share of the company and get paid dividends.
Buying options, on the other hand, means that you only have the right to buy or sell a stock at a specific price before the option expires. But you don’t own the stock (yet).
As you will see in a few moments, options trading requires much less capital than buying a stock, and therefore it’s very attractive.
But it can also very confusing. My goal is to make it simple for you.
Let’s start with an example:
2. Which Is Better: To Buy A Call Option On A Stock Or To Buy A Stock?
Let’s use Apple (AAPL) as an example. Right now, the market price (at the time of this writing on May 6th, 2021) of AAPL is 128.70.
Let’s assume, you are bullish on Apple and expect AAPL to go higher.
So you could buy 100 shares of AAPL, but this would come with a high price:
100 shares * 128.70 per share = $12,870
If you have a small account, this might be too high of an investment.
The good news: You can trade options instead.
When you buy a CALL option, you have the right to buy 100 shares of AAPL at a set price (the strike price) on or before the expiration date of the option.
You could buy a call option that expires on June 18th. Today is May 6th, so you have 43 days before this option expires worthless
The price of the option is $3.75.
Options come in “100 packs”, so your investment to buy this call option is only $3.75 * 100 = $375
Why Buy Options Instead Of Stocks?
First of all, it’s much cheaper:
Compared to the investment of 12,807 to buy 100 shares, that’s only 3% of the money that’s required.
And because of that, options more profitable than stocks.
Let me explain:
3. Are Options More Profitable Than Stocks?
Since you are bullish on AAPL, you expect the stock to go up.
Let’s say that over the next few weeks, the stock goes to 140:
Let’s take a look at the profits from your stocks first:
You bought 100 shares of AAPL at a price of $128.70 per share.
Now each share is worth $140.
So your profit is 140–128.70 = 11.30 per share * 100 shares = 1,130.
Based on your investment of $12,870, that’s 8.8% Return on Investment (ROI).
That’s not bad, but let’s take a look at the call option:
How Are Options More Profitable Than Stocks?
The call option that you bought gives you the right to BUY 100 shares of AAPL for $130 before June 18th.
So if AAPL shares move up to $140, you can buy 100 shares of AAPL at $130 and sell them immediately at $140.
This means that your profit per share is 140–130 = 10.
And since you are trading 100 shares, your profit would be $1,000.
But keep in mind: You paid $375 for the right to do this, so you need to subtract this from your profits:
1000–375 = 625.
Your total profit is $625. Doesn’t sound much, but based on your $375 investment, that’s 167% return on investment (ROI).
In summary:
You made more money in terms of absolute dollars on the stock ($1,130 vs. $625), but the money you needed to make this profit was much less: $375 vs. $12,870.
And that’s why your ROI is 167% when trading the option vs 8.8% when trading the stock — even though the stock price is exactly the same.
Pretty cool, huh?
4. How Much Money Do You Need For Options Trading?
As you can see from the previous example, you need MUCH less money when trading options vs trading stocks.
When trading options, you can get started with as little as $2,000.
Check with your broker about the minimum requirements to open an options trading account.
So if you have a smaller account, trading options might be much better for you than stock trading.
5. Can You Lose Money Trading Options?
Let’s talk about the risks of options trading, specifically the question “Can you lose money trading options?”
The answer: YES, of course!
In the example above, you could lose the premium you paid for the option, i.e. $375, if the stock price does not move above the strike price of $130.
If AAPL remains below $130 until the expiration date of June 18th, your option expires worthless.
And here’s why:
With a call option, you have the right to BUY 100 shares of AAPL for $130.
If AAPL is trading below $130, let’s say at $128, you don’t want to exercise your right to buy AAPL at $130. Because then you would pay MORE for the stock than you would if you bought it right away.
Making sense?
So if AAPL stays below $130 until expiration, your option expires worthless and you lose the premium you paid for the right to buy the stock.
Can You Lose More Than You Invest In Options?
When you are BUYING options, you can not lose more than the premium that you pay when buying options. So that’s good.
However, when you are SELLING options, that’s a different story, and we will cover that later.
So in summary: When BUYING options, the maximum amount that you could lose is the premium you pay when buying the option.
6. What Are The Risks Of Options Trading?
YES, there are risks when trading options:
a) Selling Options Can Be Dangerous.
As you have seen, when BUYING options your risk is limited to the premium you pay when buying the option.
However, as a seller, there’s a lot more risk. In some cases, you can have UNLIMITED risk.
We will cover this in detail in a later article.
b) Buying Out Of The Money Options.
Risky before the probabilities are low.
c) Know What You’re Doing
When trading options, there are a few more things to consider:
Call options vs put options
Strike Prices
Expiration Dates
… and then there are also these pesky “Greeks” like delta, gamma, theta, rho, etc.
And when you have more things to consider, there are more possibilities to make mistakes.
So make sure that you understand all these factors before you start trading options. We will talk about “The Greeks” later.
Are Options Riskier Than Stocks?
YES.
Because it’s easier to lose ALL of your investment.
Let’s continue our example from above:
Trading Stocks
You bought AAPL at $128.70 per share.
If AAPL drops to $125, then you would lose $3.70 per share, or $370 for 100 shares. Based on your initial investment, that’s only 2.9%
Trading Options
You bought the 130 Call Option for $3.75.
If AAPL doesn’t move above 130, you lose ALL of your investment, i.e. 100%.
Yes, the investment is much lower, but instead of losing 2.9% as you would when trading stocks, you would lose 100%.
Selling Options
And when selling options, you can lose A LOT of money.
Selling options can be very profitable. In fact, I made more than $75,000 in less than 5 months selling options…
… BUT it’s also very risky.
Compare options vs stocks like riding a bicycle and riding a motorcycle:
Riding a motorcycle gets you to your destination quicker. And it can be more fun. But it’s also much riskier than riding a bicycle.
7. Can You Really Make Money Trading Options?
Absolutely!
There are many advantages to trading options, and it is possible to make money with options.
Is there a safe way to trade options?
You need to know what you are doing, and you need to have a solid trading strategy.
Find a strategy that you understand and then practice it on a simulator. And when you are ready, start making money with it.
Can Option Trading make you rich?
When trading options, you will often see returns of 167%, 200% or even 300%.
Therefore, it’s easy to believe that options trading can make you rich.
But keep in mind: With these high returns, comes high risk.
Yes, you can make 200% or 300% when trading options.
And you can lose ALL your investment, as you have seen above.
Don’t think of options trading as a “get-rich-quick-scheme”.
But when used correctly, options trading is perfect to grow a small account into a bigger one.
Summary: Should I Trade Options
YES!
Should I trade stocks or options?
Why not do both? Best of both worlds!
Is options trading worth it?
YES! It can be very rewarding! As we just covered with trading options, there are many, many advantages. If you are not trading options yet, I highly recommend that you start looking into them.
📚Easiest and most accurate way to trade EUR/USDHi traders!
I have long wanted to share the simplest trading strategy, which is suitable for both experienced and beginners.
The easiest way to trade EURUSD is to trade channels + support and resistance lines.
1. How to find a channel.
As you can see from the chart, over the past 6 years (immediately after Brexit), the price has always been in a channel.
You need to build channels on the D1 timeframe.
I have provided you with the existing channels on the chart, now the price is in a growing channel.
To build a new channel, 4 points are enough (2 above and 2 below). Although for more advanced traders, 3 points will be enough.
Examples.
2. Once you have built the channel, you can trade.
3. With the entrances sorted out. Everything is simple here. It will be more difficult to choose SL and Tp
To make it simple and easy to remember (especially for beginners) always set SL 3 times less than TP (Risk to reward ratio 1 to 3)
It remains to decide on the TP.
Strong support and resistance lines will help us a lot.
It is better to close the trade when the price reaches strong lines. In fact, there are few important lines, so they are not difficult to find (otherwise, they are most likely not important lines).
Example:
4. Important notes.
1) It is better to trade with the trend (open buy trades in an upward channel and sell trades in a falling channel)
2) Better not to enter a trade during very important events (like Covid-19)
3) False breakouts occur at times, but the price quickly returns to the channel, so after the price quickly returns, you can open a trade.
4) If the price is both on the channel line and + on the strong line, then you can open a deal with 2 times larger volume
5) If the price touches the channel line twice in a short period of time, then it's okay if you open two trades + you can double the stop loss in this case.
5. Output
In total for the last 2.5. of the year there were 15 entries, 14 of them in plus 1 in minus (Accuracy 93% !!)
Average risk to reward ratio of 1 to 3 (although entries are so accurate that experienced traders can make a risk to reward ratio of 1 to 5)
If you take the risk for trade 1% of the deposit (although you can take 2% with such accuracy) then:
Profit 14 * 3 = 42%, and loss 1%
The total profit is 41% for 2.5 years, that is, 16.4% + RISK-FREE profit per year, only for EURUSD.
experienced traders know these are great numbers.
Find 2-3 more such strategies and you will be an excellent trader
Like and comment if you like the idea
This will be my motivation to create posts like this.
📚Easiest and most accurate way to trade EURUSDHi traders!
I have long wanted to share the simplest trading strategy, which is suitable for both experienced and beginners.
The easiest way to trade EURUSD is to trade channels + support and resistance lines.
1. How to find a channel.
As you can see from the chart, over the past 6 years (immediately after Brexit), the price has always been in a channel.
You need to build channels on the D1 timeframe.
I have provided you with the existing channels on the chart, now the price is in a growing channel.
To build a new channel, 4 points are enough (2 above and 2 below). Although for more advanced traders, 3 points will be enough.
Examples.
2. Once you have built the channel, you can trade.
3. With the entrances sorted out. Everything is simple here. It will be more difficult to choose SL and Tp
To make it simple and easy to remember (especially for beginners) always set SL 3 times less than TP (Risk to reward ratio 1 to 3)
It remains to decide on the TP.
Strong support and resistance lines will help us a lot.
It is better to close the trade when the price reaches strong lines. In fact, there are few important lines, so they are not difficult to find (otherwise, they are most likely not important lines).
Example:
4. Important notes.
1) It is better to trade with the trend (open buy trades in an upward channel and sell trades in a falling channel)
2) Better not to enter a trade during very important events (like Covid-19)
3) False breakouts occur at times, but the price quickly returns to the channel, so after the price quickly returns, you can open a trade.
4) If the price is both on the channel line and + on the strong line, then you can open a deal with 2 times larger volume
5) If the price touches the channel line twice in a short period of time, then it's okay if you open two trades + you can double the stop loss in this case.
5. Output
In total for the last 2.5. of the year there were 15 entries, 14 of them in plus 1 in minus (Accuracy 93% !!)
Average risk to reward ratio of 1 to 3 (although entries are so accurate that experienced traders can make a risk to reward ratio of 1 to 5)
If you take the risk for trade 1% of the deposit (although you can take 2% with such accuracy) then:
Profit 14 * 3 = 42%, and loss 1%
The total profit is 41% for 2.5 years, that is, 16.4% + RISK-FREE profit per year, only for EURUSD.
experienced traders know these are great numbers.
Find 2-3 more such strategies and you will be an excellent trader
Like and comment if you like the idea
This will be my motivation to create posts like this.
When To Sit On Your Hands When TradingNow, as you know, I like to use the PowerX Optimizer to find the best trades according to the PowerX strategy, along with The Wheel Strategy.
So here’s my morning routine. Usually, I’m in front of the computer at 8 a.m. Central Time. That is 30 minutes before the US markets open. I run the scanner on PowerX Optimizer, and it finds possible trades based on my criteria.
My Criteria For Finding Stocks
My criteria, for starters, is I like to look for long and short signals because I like to play the markets both ways. I want to see at least a 60% return on my investment. I also want to see stocks that have a closing price between $5 and $250, because I don’t like to trade stocks that are below $5.
I want to see a profit factor that is higher than 3. This means that for every dollar that I would have lost trading the strategy, I would have made $3. I also want a risk-reward ratio of at least 2%. Usually, there are anywhere between 4 & 8 stocks that come up on my scanner every day.
I use three criteria to find A-plus trades. So here’s what I’m looking for.
Number one, I’m looking for gappiness. I look back to see if the stock had a lot of gaps over the past year. I look back over the past 13 months.
Number two, I’m looking for is trendability. What does trendability mean? It means that I want to see nice trends to the upside and the downside.
And the last thing, number three, is I’m looking at the P&L chart. What does the P&L chart mean? Now, this is one of the strengths of the PowerX Optimizer software, and this is why I use it every single day.
The P&L chart basically shows you what would have happened if I had traded this stock according to the rules of the PowerX strategy over the past year.
So I can take a look at the trading report where I see for the past few trades, what I would have made in profits & losses.
When To Sit On Your Hands
Anyhow, this morning (at the time of this writing) I just saw EVRI on my scanner and it passed MOST of my criteria. First of all, it did pass all my scanner criteria, otherwise, it wouldn’t have come up here. Also, it did pass 2 out of my 3 criteria in terms of gappiness and trendability.
But when it came to the P&L chart, it didn’t meet my criteria. So this is where this morning I did the most difficult thing for a trader. I was sitting on my hands. You see, at the beginning of my trading career, I had this little voice in my head and this little voice in my head said, “If you don’t trade, you don’t make any money.”
Well after I forced some trades, I realized, well, if you don’t trade, you also don’t lose any money. This is why it’s so important. In the beginning when I got a new tool, or when I had a new trading strategy, I wanted to trade it. All I wanted to do was trade. However, when there’s nothing to trade, DON’T TRADE.
This is why I use the PowerX Optimizer. It a fantastic job of keeping you out of trouble.
So now, as you know, I am trading two strategies. In addition to trading the PowerX strategy, I’m also trading the Wheel. So also for the Wheel, I started looking for trades.
Let me show you what I was looking for this morning. One of the trades that I thought, ahh you know what, this might actually be a decent trade was Marriott, (MAR), but when I looked, however, there wasn’t enough premium in there to sell according to the Wheel.
I looked at another stock that came up on my radar this morning, which was (PENN). There was some great premium in there but PENN sounded rather risky. You see, for me, it is very, very important that I have a great track record.
Now at the beginning of my trading career, I would have forced these trades. I would have said, “Oh my gosh, I cannot be done working after one hour,” because this is what happens sometimes in the morning.
I sit down in front of the computer at 8 o’clock, which is half an hour before the open, and I run through the PowerX Optimizer, and don’t find anything.
Now, one of the things that of course, I do every single day, is that I check my open positions, and in the PowerX Optimizer, I have my watch list.
So first I look for new trades, and secondly, manage my existing trades. I don’t, however, need to overmanage my account when there are days where there is nothing to trade. What I used to do way back when I was still new to trading, and nothing would come up, I would adjust my criteria.
I said, yeah, you know what? Instead of getting a 60% return on my investment, why don’t I lower it to 50%, or why don’t I lower the winning percentage to 35%. Maybe lower the volume to 200,000. I had to learn the hard way early in my career not to do this.
Summary
So anyhow, in summary, there will be days when you’re all excited, but you see, in order to make money with trading, two conditions have to be met.
Number one, you have to be ready, and number two, the markets have to be ready. You may be ready but if the markets are not ready, you got to sit on your hands. The beautiful thing as traders, it’s not that today is the trading opportunity of a century. No, tomorrow there will be more trades, on Wednesday will be more trades, on Thursday.
Every single day I’m running the scanner according to PowerX Optimizer and I will find more opportunities to trade.
So today, one of the hardest lessons, and this is why I wanted to share it with you, sit on your hands. Anyhow, if you enjoyed this video, do me a favor and click on like so that more people will see it.