Mechanical Consistency; Gold (XAUUSD) Trade Review for 01 AugHi, This is a trade review for 01 Aug 2023.
Here are some details for the trades.
OANDA:XAUUSD
1-hour time frame
2% per trade
1 loss, 1 win (trade still open with take profit 1 achieve) Net -1% currently.
Disclaimer: Not Financial Advice! I'm just sharing my trading journey. Please take it as educational content. Thank you!
Tuesday, Gold fails the upward push and falls below the market structure, triggering and losing my first trade. Luckily, the price is able to hold at my 2nd trade level. Retracing back to my first take profit level, recovering half of my loss. The 2nd is currently still open with 0 risk running.
As a full-time working individual, I do not have the time to constantly monitor the charts and look out for the "perfect" trading opportunity. This is why I adopt the mechanical trading strategy to earn extra money.
This approach eliminates the need for extensive technical or fundamental analysis and removes any guesswork. It is a 100% Mechanical rule-based strategy, ensuring disciplined and consistent decision-making.
Here's how it works: Immediately after the 1st-hour candlestick closes either below or above the 21 EMA (Exponential Moving Average), you place precise Buy/Sell limit orders. Once all parameters are meticulously set, you can confidently attend to your daily routine, including your day job, while entrusting the market to dictate the trades.
If you are interested to learn my strategy, please visit my blogging site, link in BIO. Thank you!
Strategy!
Mechanical Consistency; Gold (XAUUSD) Trade Review for 31 JulyHi, This is a trade review for 27 July 2023.
Here are some details for the trades.
XAUUSD
1-hour time frame
2% per trade
2 Solid Wins, net around +5.5%
Disclaimer: Not Financial Advice! I'm just sharing my trading journey. Please take it as educational content. Thank you!
Monday's trading was exceptionally successful with both trades yielding outstanding results. The first trade was executed flawlessly, experiencing minimal drawdown before quickly hitting its target for a satisfying profit. The second trade was triggered right after the first's successful exit and continued its momentum into Tuesday morning, reaching its initial take profit level. However, due to the potential impact of the ongoing trade on the new setup, I had to make a prudent adjustment to the second trade's take-profit level.
As a full-time working individual, I do not have the time to constantly monitor the charts and look out for the "perfect" trading opportunity. This is why I adopt the mechanical trading strategy to earn extra money.
This approach eliminates the need for extensive technical or fundamental analysis and removes any guesswork. It is a 100% Mechanical rule-based strategy, ensuring disciplined and consistent decision-making.
Here's how it works: Immediately after the 1st-hour candlestick closes either below or above the 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average), you place precise Buy/Sell limit orders. Once all parameters are meticulously set, you can confidently attend to your daily routine, including your day job, while entrusting the market to dictate the trades.
If you are interested to learn my strategy, please visit my blogging site, link in BIO. Thank you!
SUPPORT & RESISTANCE Hey Everyone,
Support and resistance is one the most talked about price action component when it comes to technical chart analysis.
What is support and resistance?
Support and resistance are areas where price fails to continue to rise or drop. Historical areas of rejections create levels of support and resistance. These levels are expected to stop price from a continuation. - SEE EXAMPLE BELOW
How can we use support and resistance?
Support and resistance levels can be used to take trades from and to close trades on. We will cover the basics of drawing the levels and also identifying rejections and breakouts using support and resistance levels.
First and foremost traders draw support and resistance in many different ways. We will cover one of the methods we use to support our signals and trades, which is called "CANDLE BODY CLOSE"
See examples below on how to draw the levels, identify rejections and also the breakout strategy.
CANDLE BODY CLOSE SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Failure to close above a level with the candle body forms level of resistance and failure to close below a level with the candle body forms support. Also areas of rejections.
CANDLE BODY CLOSE BREAKOUT
A candle that is able to close above a resistance or below a support level with the body and not just the wick confirms a breakout of the level for a continuation.
This is a fantastic simple way to chart support and resistance levels, that can also be used to support entries and exits by identifying the wick rejections and the candle body breakouts.
As always, we will continue to share our chart ideas and useful educational tips for traders. Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, we really appreciate it!
GoldViewFX
XAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
THIS IS THE REASON YOUR STRATEGY DOESN'T WORKThe title is brash, I know. But before you click away, answer these two questions:
1) How many strategies have you tried?
2) How many strategies have you backtested through several years and thousands of trades?
If you have tried more strategies than you've backtested rigorously, then stick around because that's probably the reason why you're losing money.
Imagine this. Florence is a novice trader. He's seen the thousands of dollars in profit a kid 10 years younger than him can generate. He's seen the kid flexing his Lambo on Instagram. The kid mentions RSI a few times, so Florence assumes the RSI indicator is the secret to insane profits. Florence is chomping at the bits and loads up a fresh Webull account with $3,000. Every time the RSI is above 70 on a stock, he shorts that stock.
Lo and behold, after 5 trades, Florence's account now sits at $2,300. He concludes the indicator does not work.
Florence perseveres and is determined to find the secret strategy to quick profits. He scraps the RSI and studies "support and resistance" trading from a few youtube mentors. He reloads his Webull account back up to $3,000. With a refreshed vision, he shorts anytime a stock is at resistance and longs anytime a stock hits support. Sadly, after 10 trades, his account is down again, this time to $2,600.
Florence is flabbergasted.
The story goes on. He attempts implementing strategy after strategy and continues to lose money. Unfortunately, many of us are Florence. We did what he did. We got into the game without a blueprint or game plan.
And this is why my title is brashly stated, "If you don't read this you are going to lose money," because it's true. If you resemble Florence even in the slightest, basing the success of your trading strategy on a handful of trades, then how do you expect to know what strategy is actually successful?
I don't blame you for approaching trading like Florence. In today's age, we are seeing the market oversaturated with traders and trading coaches, or even worse, "trading influencers". As with any influx of the masses, we are going to get the scumbags trying to get you to buy their image and product by falsifying the simplicity and ease of trading.
If you are jumping between strategies without quantifying its success and failure rates over thousands of scenarios, then stop trading right now because you are going to continue losing money. Find a backtesting service or at the least log every single trade you take. Whatever it is, slow down and find proof of failure before declaring failure. I don't want you to fall into a never-ending hole of searching for the "right" indicator/strategy. The truth is, most of the strategies you've thrown away probably work and you don't even know it.
HOW TO START BUILDING A STRATEGY?As it is said, A strategy is a reflection of a trader’s character . Whatever sentiments/emotions you have, reflect in your trading decisions. At first, people think that, ‘I will use xyz indicator and buy here and sell there’, thinking it’s easy to have a method that is simple. But when reality hits, all the simplicity runs out of the window with your money. Trading is not for those who take it lightly. You have to respect the market before coming up with a strategy that suits your personality/mindset/character.
One might ask, what does personality have to do with trading? And that’s where all the secrets are. Newbie traders often run after YouTube channels, Twitter handles of some high MTM traders and try to copy them. They keep hopping from one setup to another. Because in the beginning, traders do not have the knowledge of risk management, importance of back testing etc. You should test your strategy for at least 100 trades before scrapping it. And that’s where they lack. But in my experience, you may learn the method from another trader but you cannot learn the mindset . You have to develop that on your own. There are certain ways of self-assessment when it comes to finding the right approach towards trading. Just because some day trader is making a killing in the market every day, doesn’t mean you can replicate the same performance too. You might be well suited for positional/swing trading. Just like that if someone is better in swing trading, you may be crafted for long term investing if not that even for scalping. There is a vast array of segments to choose from. From intraday to swing and scalping to options writing.
You can decide any segment as per your patience level. The only goal should be to make money. You are not here to be right or wrong. You are here to make a living.
Choosing a trading style is completely based on your patience level. If you are a patient trader then you can go for short to long term trading. Find the good setups, take the trade and sit tight. Your actions should be either target or stop loss. You can manage the trade as per your style e.g. , pyramiding or averaging.
If you are an adrenaline junkie, then intraday, scalping & F&O trading is your cup of tea. But remember that the lesser the trade duration, more the chances of losses . Because these segments are much more risky than those of others. You need the skill of a sniper & the eye of an eagle to execute such trades and come out of it profitably.
Now the question is how to decide? There are some ways you can shorten the learning curve, some of them are as follow…
1.Mentor👨🏫:
Mentor is the person who is willing to share his experience to those who seek to shorten the learning curve. Warren Buffet had Benjamin Graham, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala had Radhakishan Damani . Everyone needs a mentor, be it in the form of books or a person . Learning what not to do is more important than learning what to do? And that is the biggest lesson I’ve learned from my mentors . A mentor teaches you that in the most practical ways by showing some real-life examples. He will also tell you when to trade and when not to. Because compulsive trading is one of the major reasons why traders lose big. So, finding a good mentor should be your priority.
2.Self-Learning🎓✍️:
There are some successful self-made traders who learned from trial and error. But you need to check the time they took to be successful. It’s not impossible but it’s time consuming. Also, you need to have lots of patience and money as well. Because self-learning is like flying a plane by reading manuals. You have to do all the work from developing a strategy to back testing it and it's too lengthy process to start with. You can self-learn trading, but be ready to give it time.
3.Books📚:
Aahh books… the first love of any trader. For me it still is. I read as much as possible. The very foundation of my trading journey is based on reading. I read many books in my initial days. Some of them still help me today. But textbook knowledge is not sufficient in real time trading . You can learn patterns such as triangle, channel, cup and handle and head and shoulders. But textbook patterns are so rare that it’s exhausting to spot them on charts let alone trade them, unless you have a knack for them. It’s a good start but not the best process.
Above information should give you some perspective on how to approach the market and build your strategy. Strategy doesn’t just mean a trading setup (Entry & Exit). It includes everything from trade setup to your mindset. Find the best possible way, stick to it and follow the path. Eventually you will reach the destination.
Keep learning, keep growing…!! 💗✨
Support TradingView✌️
🐼Mastering the Art of Forex Trading Strategies🐼
Key words:
,,,,, , ,,
🐼The world of forex trading is as fascinating as it is dynamic. To thrive in this fast-paced market, developing a robust trading strategy is paramount. In this article, we will explore the key points that can help you identify and refine your trading strategy, bringing you closer to success.
🐼Identifying Market Trends:
Understanding market trends is crucial in making informed trading decisions. By analyzing moving averages, trend lines, and price patterns, you can identify the prevailing market direction and potential opportunities.
🐼Implementing Effective Risk Management Strategies:
Mitigating risks is a vital aspect of any trading strategy. Set appropriate stop-loss orders, determine suitable position sizes, and manage leverage wisely to protect your capital and minimize exposure to potential losses.
🐼Incorporating Technical Analysis Tools:
Technical analysis tools provide valuable insights into market behavior. Use oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to identify overbought or oversold conditions, Fibonacci retracement levels to pinpoint support and resistance levels, and Bollinger Bands to gauge market volatility.
🐼Staying Informed about Market News and Economic Calendar Events:
Keeping up with the latest news and economic events can provide valuable context for your trading strategy. Monitor economic indicators such as GDP releases, central bank meetings, and geopolitical events to understand potential impacts on currency movements.
🐼Conclusion:
Crafting a successful forex trading strategy requires a comprehensive approach that covers market trend identification, risk management, technical analysis, and staying informed about market news. By incorporating these key points into your strategy, you can enhance your trading skills and increase your chances of long-term success in the forex market. Remember, forex trading is a continuous learning journey, so adapt and evolve your strategy as the market evolves.
Please cheer me up with a like and a nice comment😸❤️
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Love you, my dear followers!👩💻🌸
Exploring Forex Trading's Price Gaps: Opportunities and RisksWithin the realm of forex trading, price gaps emerge as a frequent and remarkable occurrence, distinguished by substantial disparities between an asset's closing and opening prices. These gaps materialize due to an array of factors, encompassing shifts in investor sentiment, alterations in market liquidity, and the dissemination of consequential news. Acquiring a comprehensive understanding of the diverse types of price gaps, their underlying causes, and the implications they carry assumes paramount importance for traders aiming to effectively exploit these market opportunities while astutely managing the associated risks.
Price gaps come into existence when a discernible void arises between an asset's closing price on one trading day and its subsequent opening price on the following day. These gaps manifest in a variety of forms, each embodying distinctive characteristics and wielding implications for traders. Among the common types of price gaps are breakaway gaps, runaway gaps (also referred to as continuation gaps), and exhaustion gaps.
Breakaway gaps frequently manifest subsequent to a period of consolidation or a significant market event. These gaps act as a signal of potential trend alterations, offering traders opportunities to establish new positions in alignment with the emerging market direction.
Runaway gaps, conversely, arise within an established trend, reinforcing its continuity. They serve as a testament to surging market momentum, often propelled by fresh developments or an influx of trading activity. For traders who have already positioned themselves in line with the prevailing trend, runaway gaps provide affirmation and the potential for further profits.
Exhaustion gaps surface towards the conclusion of a trend, heralding a prospective reversal or temporary pause in the prevailing market sentiment. These gaps are frequently accompanied by dwindling trading volume, serving as a cautious indication for traders to reassess their positions and adapt their strategies accordingly.
Comprehending the causative factors behind price gaps is indispensable for traders seeking to decipher their significance and seize potential opportunities. Price gaps can arise due to sudden shifts in investor sentiment prompted by news releases, economic indicators, or geopolitical events. Moreover, market liquidity discrepancies, particularly during periods of low trading activity like weekends or holidays, can contribute to the occurrence of gaps.
Traders must meticulously evaluate the implications of price gaps and remain cognizant of the associated risks. While gaps can furnish lucrative opportunities, they also entail potential challenges. Swift price movements during gap openings can lead to slippage, wherein executed orders are filled at prices significantly divergent from the intended entry or exit levels. Additionally, the scarcity of liquidity during gap periods can yield widened spreads, underscoring the importance of deploying appropriate risk management techniques.
To adeptly navigate price gaps, traders can employ an array of strategies. These may encompass the utilization of gap trading techniques that harness the initial price movement following a gap, or adopting a more cautious approach that awaits confirmation of the market's response before entering a trade. Furthermore, implementing stop-loss orders and trailing stops can help mitigate risks associated with adverse price movements.
Do Gaps Always Close?
The closure of gaps in trading is not guaranteed, but statistical data suggests that gaps are closed at least 70% of the time, particularly when looking at weekly gaps. However, it's important to note that not all assets reach such closure levels. Among currency pairs, EUR/JPY, GBP/EUR, and GBP/JPY tend to exhibit a higher tendency to compensate for price gaps.
Exhaustion gaps are generally considered the most reliable for closure trades. When attempting to forecast gap closure, it is advisable to analyze the technical chart patterns alongside the fundamental background. If there is a divergence between these factors, it may be wise to exercise caution and refrain from engaging in active trading. In such cases, it is recommended to rely on the forecasts of other instruments to shape the overall trading outlook.
Gaps can pose risks for traders in certain situations:
1) Small trading deposits: If a trader is operating with a limited deposit that does not allow for position insurance when faced with significant and unfavorable price gaps, it can be risky. Insufficient funds to cover potential losses from a large gap can result in substantial financial consequences.
2) Lack of proper risk management: If a trader fails to set appropriate stop-loss levels or neglects to place them at all, particularly when holding positions over the weekend where gaps commonly occur, it can leave them exposed to significant losses if the market moves against their forecast.
3) Random price gaps in low time frames: Gaps that appear sporadically in lower time frames can be misleading and confusing. To avoid making impulsive decisions based on such signals, it is important to synchronize the analysis with fundamental events and consider incorporating technical indicators into the trading strategy.
Traders who pursue short-term trading with small profit goals are particularly susceptible to the risks associated with price gaps. Even a small gap can lead to losses for this category of traders, as their profit margins may be narrow.
In contrast, mid-term and long-term traders typically have less concern about the impact of gaps. Their trading strategies aim for larger profit targets, often spanning hundreds or thousands of points, where the impact of a single gap of a few tens of points is relatively insignificant.
Using Price Gaps In Trading Practice:
Price gaps can be utilized in trading practice using market and pending orders to take advantage of potential opportunities. Considerations such as the probability of closure, gap size, and time frame are taken into account.
For instance, in a 30-minute time frame, if a price gap of at least 20 points is observed at the market opening, the price tends to move within the gap for the first half-hour due to inertia.
In the case of a bullish gap, a market order to buy can be placed, while the Take Profit level can be determined using additional analysis tools. Similarly, for a bearish gap, a sell order can be activated.
If a gap appears against the prevailing trend, the likelihood of the gap closing increases. In such scenarios, pending orders like Buy Stop for an uptrend or Sell Limit for a downtrend can be effective.
One of the challenges is setting an appropriate Stop Loss. Take Profit levels can be adjusted, considering factors such as the Friday closing level, slightly above it, or at local peaks (maximum or minimum) observed on Friday.
It is crucial to exercise caution and consider risk management techniques when trading based on price gaps. Traders should thoroughly analyze market conditions, employ suitable order types, and carefully determine their entry and exit levels to optimize trading outcomes.
In conclusion , price gaps in forex trading serve as important indicators of market dynamics and present potential opportunities for traders. By analyzing the type of gap, incorporating support and resistance levels, and utilizing technical indicators and candlestick patterns, traders can make informed decisions to capitalize on these market phenomena. It's essential to note that gaps do not always close, and traders should be mindful of this fact. To enhance trading strategies, it is beneficial to align technical analysis with fundamental factors and consider the broader market context. Caution should be exercised, especially when trading with smaller deposits and during periods of increased market volatility, in order to manage the risks associated with price gaps effectively. By incorporating thorough analysis and risk management techniques, traders can navigate price gaps with greater confidence and optimize their trading outcomes.
the Bull Put SpreadIn the world of options trading, there are numerous strategies available to help investors mitigate risk and maximize profit potential. One of my favorite strategies is the bull put spread which I use when I have a bullish outlook on a particular stock or market.
What is a Bull Put Spread?
A bull put spread is a defined-risk, vertical options spread strategy that involves the simultaneous purchase and sale of put options on the same underlying asset with different strike prices. It is typically employed when an investor anticipates a moderate upward movement in the price of the underlying security.
How Does It Work?
To initiate a bull put spread, an investor sells a put option with a higher strike price and simultaneously purchases a put option with a lower strike price. Both options have the same expiration date. The premium received from selling the higher strike put option helps offset the premium paid for buying the lower strike put option. As a result, the strategy is implemented at a net credit, reducing the upfront cost and risk.
Profit Potential:
The bull put spread strategy profits from two scenarios. First, if the price of the underlying security remains above the higher strike price until expiration, both options expire worthless, and you keep the initial net credit received. Second, if the price of the underlying security experiences a moderate increase, the spread narrows in value, allowing you to buy back the short put option at a lower price, realizing a profit.
Risk and Loss Potential:
While the bull put spread strategy offers limited risk compared to naked put selling, it is not without its downsides. If the price of the underlying security falls below the lower strike price, both options may end up in-the-money at expiration. In such a case, the investor incurs a maximum loss equal to the difference between the strike prices minus the net credit received. It is crucial to assess the risk-reward ratio and have a clear exit plan in place to manage potential losses.
Picking your Spot
When you decide you want to try this strategy, the question becomes what stock should I choose? Choose an asset that has sufficient liquidity and options volume. Stocks or ETFs that are actively traded and have a large market capitalization tend to meet these criteria. I have done well with several tech stocks in the past.
Strike Prices: For a bull put spread, you will sell a put option with a higher strike price and buy a put option with a lower strike price. The difference between the two strike prices (less the credit received) will define the spread's width (and the $$ you are risking). Consider strike prices that are below the asset's current price but still provide a comfortable buffer. The specific strike prices will depend on your risk tolerance and profit target.
Implied volatility: Implied volatility reflects the market's expectations of future price fluctuations. Higher implied volatility generally leads to higher options premiums, making it more attractive for option sellers. However, excessively high implied volatility might also indicate heightened risk or uncertainty. Evaluate the implied volatility levels of the options you plan to trade and assess whether they are within a reasonable range.
Time to expiration: The time remaining until options expiration can impact the premium you receive and the potential risks. Shorter time frames generally result in lower premiums but also limit the trade's duration and potential profits. Longer time frames provide more room for the underlying asset's price to move favorably but come with increased exposure to adverse market events. Consider your desired trade duration and how it aligns with your outlook on the underlying asset.
Benefits of a Bull Put Spread
Limited risk: Unlike naked put selling, the maximum loss potential is known upfront, allowing for better risk management.
Lower capital requirement: The strategy is implemented at a net credit, reducing the upfront capital required to initiate the trade.
Profit potential in multiple scenarios: The bull put spread can generate a profit if the underlying security remains above the higher strike price or experiences a moderate increase.
Considerations and Trade-offs
Time decay: The passage of time erodes the value of options, benefiting the strategy as long as the underlying security remains above the higher strike price.
Market volatility: Higher levels of volatility can increase option premiums, potentially improving the initial net credit received.
Margin requirements: Some brokers may require a margin account to implement this strategy, as it involves short-selling options.
Risk Management
Risk is a very personal thing, so you will need to determine the maximum loss you are willing to accept for the trade, and then set appropriate stop-loss orders or exit strategies. Consider the potential loss if the underlying asset's price falls below the lower strike price of the spread. If you're new to options trading or want to validate your strategy, consider paper trading or backtesting your bull put spread using historical data. This can help you assess the performance and risk of your strategy under various market conditions before committing real capital.
The bull put spread strategy can be an effective tool for traders who hold a bullish view on a particular stock or market. By combining the sale and purchase of put options, investors can define their risk, reduce capital requirements, and profit in multiple market scenarios. However, it is crucial to thoroughly understand the mechanics, potential risks, and market conditions before implementing this strategy. As with any investment strategy, proper research, risk management, and ongoing monitoring are key to successful implementation.
📊 Exploring Basic Options StrategiesOptions are contracts that grant buyers the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a security at a predetermined price in the future. Buyers pay a premium for this privilege. If market conditions are unfavorable, option holders can let the option expire without exercising it, limiting potential losses to the premium paid. Options are categorized as "call" or "put" contracts, allowing buyers to purchase or sell the underlying asset at a specified price. Beginner investors can employ various strategies using calls or puts to manage risk, including directional bets and hedging techniques.
🔹 Buying Calls (Long Calls)
Trading options offers advantages for those who want to make a directional bet in the market. It allows traders to buy call options, which require less capital than purchasing the underlying asset, and limits losses to the premium paid if the price goes down. This strategy is suitable for traders who are confident about a specific stock, ETF, or index fund and want to manage risk. Additionally, options provide leverage, enabling traders to amplify potential gains by using smaller amounts of capital compared to trading the underlying asset directly. For example, instead of investing $10,000 to buy 100 shares of a $100 stock, traders can spend $2,000 on a call contract with a strike price 10% higher than the current market price.
🔹 Buying Puts (Long Puts)
Put options provide the holder with the right to sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price before the contract expires. This strategy is favored by traders who hold a bearish view on a specific stock, ETF, or index but want to limit their risk compared to short-selling. It also allows traders to utilize leverage to capitalize on declining prices. Unlike call options that benefit from price increases, put options increase in value as the underlying asset's price decreases. While short-selling also profits from price declines, the risk is unlimited as prices can theoretically rise infinitely. In contrast, if the underlying asset's price exceeds the strike price of a put option, the option simply expires without value.
🔹 Covered Calls
A covered call strategy involves selling a call option on an existing long position in the underlying asset. This approach is different from simply buying a call or put option. Traders who use covered calls expect little or no change in the underlying asset's price and want to collect the option premium as income. They are willing to limit the upside potential of their position in exchange for some downside protection.
🔹 Risk/Reward
A long straddle strategy involves purchasing both a call option and a put option simultaneously. While the cost of a long straddle is higher than buying either a call or put option alone, the maximum potential loss is limited to the amount paid for the straddle. On the other hand, the potential reward is theoretically unlimited on the upside. However, the downside is capped at the strike price. For example, if you own a $20 straddle and the stock price drops to zero, the maximum profit you can make is $20.
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Riding the Market Tides with the Initial Balance Ahoy, fellow traders! So you’re itching to become the Captain Jack Sparrow of trading, eh? Before you swashbuckle through the stock market, you need a treasure map. Enter the Initial Balance trading strategy! This nifty tool can be the compass guiding you through stormy market seas. But hold your horses, we’re not talking about a literal balance here; it's more like the market’s opening mood ring. Hang tight as we steer you through the nuts and bolts of this golden strategy.
Setting Sail: What’s the Initial Balance Trading Strategy?
The Initial Balance trading strategy is like that morning coffee - it sets the tone for the day. Here's how it works: You observe the high and low of the first hour of trading. This range, my friends, is the Initial Balance. It’s a harbinger of how the market may swing for the rest of the day. The million-dollar question is, how do you use this to fill your coffers?
Anchors Aweigh: Establishing the Initial Balance
First things first, you need to get a grip on that Initial Balance. Let’s break it down step by step:
Watch the market like a hawk from the opening bell.
Jot down the highest and lowest points during the first hour.
Plot them on your chart and voila! That's your Initial Balance.
Sailing Through Uncharted Waters: Price Action
When the price takes a leap of faith outside this range, that's when the magic happens. It might indicate a trend in making. Hold on to your hats, because this is where you can swoop in and take a position.
The North Star: Using Indicators
Now, I wouldn’t bet my last doubloon solely on the Initial Balance. It’s a guide, not gospel. Bring in some allies like volume indicators and moving averages to keep you from sailing off the edge of the world.
Why Is the Initial Balance Trading Strategy the X Marks the Spot?
Oh, the Initial Balance trading strategy has a special place in traders' hearts for a reason. Here’s what makes it the go-to guide for many:
First Mover Advantage: Get a jump on the crowd. Being in the know from the get-go can be your secret weapon.
Flexibility: This ain't a one-trick pony. Use it for day trading or merge it with other indicators to build a rock-solid strategy.
Early Warning System: When the seas are rough, it’s best to stay ashore. The Initial Balance can help you gauge the market’s mood and steer clear if needed.
Weathering the Storms: Potential Pitfalls
Hold up! No treasure hunt is complete without booby traps. So, what could possibly go wrong?
False Breakouts: Sometimes the market’s just messing with you. The price could break out of the Initial Balance, only to do an about-face.
Overnight News: A sneaky villain. News from across the seven seas can throw a monkey wrench in the works, and your Initial Balance may end up as useful as a chocolate teapot.
FAQs
1. Can I use the Initial Balance trading strategy for any market?
Aye, matey! Whether stocks, forex, or commodities, it’s all fair game.
2. What time frame should I use to establish the Initial Balance?
Traditionally, it’s the first hour. But hey, if you like living on the edge, some traders narrow it down to the first 30 minutes.
3. Can the Initial Balance Trading Strategy be my only strategy?
Well, putting all your eggs in one basket might leave you with egg on your face. It's good to mix and match with other strategies.
Concluding Our Voyage: All Hands on Deck!
To wrap this shindig up, the Initial Balance trading strategy can be the wind in your sails. But don’t go sailing blindfolded; be sure to have some extra navigational tools on hand. It’s a pirate’s life for you, but remember, even the savviest pirates have a trusty crew and a sturdy ship. So weigh anchor, and let the Initial Balance be your first mate on this high-seas adventure. Happy trading!
First Steps: Introduction to Pine Script Welcome back, fellow traders, to another exciting episode of our Pine Script™ journey! In our previous video, we explored how to use existing scripts and indicators on TradingView. Today, we'll take the next step and dive into the fascinating world of reading and writing Pine Script™.
In this episode, we'll focus on the fundamental aspects of reading Pine Script™ code and understanding its structure. By studying the code written by talented programmers, we can gain valuable insights and improve our own understanding of the language.
Reading code written by proficient programmers is the most effective way to enhance your knowledge of any programming language, and Pine Script™ is no exception. Luckily, there are numerous reliable sources for high-quality code on TradingView.
To start, you can explore the built-in indicators provided by TradingView. These indicators serve as excellent examples of well-written code. Simply load an indicator on your chart and hover over its name to access the "Source code" icon. Clicking on this icon will open the Pine Script™ Editor, where you can view the indicator's code.
The Pine Script™ Editor allows you to explore and modify the code. If you want to experiment with a specific indicator, you can make a copy of the code by selecting "Make a copy" from the "More" menu. This way, you can freely modify and save your changes without affecting the original indicator.
Another fantastic resource for reading code is the vast collection of Community Scripts on TradingView. These scripts, created by talented traders and programmers like yourself, offer a wealth of inspiration and knowledge. When browsing through Community Scripts, look for scripts without a gray or red "lock" icon, indicating that they are open-source.
Opening a script's page allows you to view its source code. By examining different scripts, you can gain insights into various trading strategies and techniques. This exposure to different coding styles will broaden your understanding of Pine Script™ and help you improve your own coding skills.
Now that we've explored reading code, it's time to unleash our creativity and start writing our own Pine Script™ scripts. Whether you're a beginner or an experienced programmer, Pine Script™ provides a user-friendly yet powerful platform for developing indicators, strategies, and even libraries.
Pine Script™ empowers us to write three types of scripts: indicators, strategies, and libraries. Indicators, like RSI and MACD, help us analyze market data. Strategies, on the other hand, include trading logic and can be backtested and forward-tested. Lastly, libraries enable advanced programmers to create reusable functions for other scripts.
I invite you all to embark on this exciting journey of writing your first indicator. With Pine Script™, we have a language that is both approachable for beginners and flexible enough for advanced traders. Let's unlock our creativity and develop trading tools tailored to our unique strategies.
Thank you for joining me today as we explored the art of reading and writing Pine Script™. Stay tuned for the next episode, where we'll dive deeper into writing indicators and unleash the full potential of this remarkable language. Until then, keep trading with passion and continue honing your coding skills!
Cracking the Code of Bull and Bear TrapsHey Friends, let's dive into the captivating world of bull and bear traps. These traps can be quite the wild ride, so buckle up and get ready for some trading knowledge! A bull trap, my friends, is a sneaky maneuver by the market. It lures unsuspecting traders into believing there's a bullish breakout on the horizon. But guess what? It's a trap! The price quickly reverses and sends those traders into a tailspin, caught in a frenzy of false signals. Don't let the allure fool you!
Now, on to the bear trap. It's the flip side of the coin, my friends. Just when you thought the market was about to take a nosedive, it surprises you with an upward surge. It's like a magician's trick, leaving all those who bet on a bearish breakdown scratching their heads. Bam! The bear trap strikes, and those traders find themselves caught in a bullish whirlwind they never saw coming.
To navigate these treacherous traps, my dear traders, exercise patience and wait for confirmation. Don't jump the gun at the first sign of a breakout or breakdown. Look for additional indicators to support the move and keep a close eye on volume. Strong volume is the key, my friends! And don't forget to set those stop-loss orders, strategically placing them to protect your positions.
Now, remember, studying market structure and learning from past mistakes is essential. Analyze historical traps, dissect their patterns, and absorb every little detail. The more you educate yourself, the better prepared you'll be to dodge those cunning traps in the future.
So, my fellow traders, stay sharp, stay nimble, and stay ahead of those traps. It's a wild journey out there, but armed with knowledge and experience, you can conquer the trading world. May your trades be prosperous, and may you always stay one step ahead of those crafty bull and bear traps!
What is an "R"? Discover the Most Popular Way to Manage RiskUsing R multiples is one of the most widely used strategies by professional traders for managing risk and tracking results. The R multiple concept is extremely easy to use and implement into your own strategy. With this simple idea, money management will become a breeze! If you have any questions or comments I would love to hear them!
My A+ Trade Set Up when trading XAUUSD (Educational)Whats up gold gang! .. thought id drop in to show you how i enter my trades when they enter my zones. I set alerts here on trading view, then when price is approaching my zone, i get to the computer and lock in
Im looking for a clean break into the zone with a strong candle on the 15/30/1h
That candle must close
Next candle to open and do a small pull back to create a wick. This says to me no buying pressure is present.
Entry on the flip of the candle and break of previous candle
Target is placed.
Stop loss above previous candle high. Anything above that is invalid.
Of course i do things to manage risk and increase reward as the trade is moving, but they are personal to me. You will all have your own risk parameters im sure.
Thats it gang .. very simple, but as you can see .. very effective.
My zones work on any strategy, you could us smart money concepts, fibs, support resistance etc .. they will all work with my directional bias.
Hope this was helpful .. leave a like if it was and follow along for more XAUUSD updates
tommyXAU
How you can make 6 figures a month using prop fundsFirstly you need to be able to acquire one account such as a 100k account. Assuming your target is $110000 you start by risking $500 a trade until you reach $3000. if you take losses you continue risking the same until you're back at the starting point. once you reach $3000 of profit you now up your risk to $1000 until you get to $6000 and then $2000. This should easily allow you to pass phase 1 of the challenge, you then repeat the same for phase 2.
Once you receive your first funded account, you are now going to purchase another challenge and copy trade your funded account (master acc) onto the challenge. Repeating the above and considering you have a strategy with a good win rate, you are now able to make money while passing the challenges without having to trade 2 accounts manually. You continue this process and max your funding with one prop fund, and then move on to a second and so on until you have 7 figures in funding under your belt.
The key is to remain focused and have your psychology and mindset on point. making a mistake on your master account is going to reflect on all accounts. The same goes with profits however. If you have 1 mill in funding and make 1% in a week on one of your 100k accounts, then the other 9 will also make 1% bringing you to a total of 10% ($100000) in one week.
My favourite prop fund atm is properfunded.com
The Breakout Trading Strategy of Trendlines | OKXIDEAS
Hello traders,
In this post i am just showing you a very simple and easy trading strategy especially for beginners, in this strategy i am just using two basic things trendlines and 50 simple moving average which is you can also see in the charts above.
What you will be doing in this strategy just simply go to the 1hr timeframe see the clear trend draw the trendline wait for the breakout when breakout happen now wait for price to retest or just place a buy limit or sell limit order.
I hope you like the strategy this is the trendlines breakout trading strategy.
The one good thing about this strategy is the risk to reward ratio because in this strategy you will have potential to have around 1/3 risk to reward ratio so this means if you placed 10 trades and you lose 7 trades out of 10 and you just won 3 trades out of 10, you will be still profitable so meanwhile you just need to have a 30% wining ratio to be profitable in a long run.
I just advise you that try the strategy open the chart and back-test your chart and trade it on demo live market condition at least for one month and see the results ask the question to yourself can you be profitable? if the answer is yes so probably you know that what to do next but if the answer is no then look it your one month data that you have, make sure to journal your one month data record and try to analyze what mistakes you do what wining ratio you have can you have a little deference to between 30% see your taken trades you will be seeing some bad trades and you don't wanted to trade next time avoid those trades in the next month and just repeat the process be patient one day you will be consistently profitable but if not then don't lose the hope and just try again again and again learn from your mistakes come back and don't do that mistakes again, remember every strategy is good if you practice and managed it.
Just find the strategy that you suit and start the process.
I hope you liked the post, i wish you good luck and good trading.
Price/Earnings: amazing interpretation #2In my previous post , we started to analyze the most popular financial ratio in the world – Price / Earnings or P/E (particularly one of the options for interpreting it). I said that P/E can be defined as the amount of money that must be paid once in order to receive 1 monetary unit of diluted net income per year. For American companies, it will be in US dollars, for Indian companies it will be in rupees, etc.
In this post, I would like to analyze another interpretation of this financial ratio, which will allow you to look at P/E differently. To do this, let's look at the formula for calculating P/E again:
P/E = Capitalization / Diluted earnings
Now let's add some refinements to the formula:
P/E = Current capitalization / Diluted earnings for the last year (*)
(*) In my case, by year I mean the last 12 months.
Next, let's see what the Current capitalization and Diluted earnings for the last year are expressed in, for example, in an American company:
- Current capitalization is in $;
- Diluted earnings for the last year are in $/year.
As a result, we can write the following formula:
P/E = Current capitalization / Diluted earnings for the last year = $ / $ / year = N years (*)
(*) According to the basic rules of math, $ will be reduced by $, and we will be left with only the number of years.
It's very unusual, isn't it? It turns out that P/E can also be the number of years!
Yes, indeed, we can say that P/E is the number of years that a shareholder (investor) will need to wait in order to recoup their investments at the current price from the earnings flow, provided that the level of profit does not change .
Of course, the condition of an unchangeable level of profit is very unrealistic. It is rare to find a company that shows the same profit from year to year. Nevertheless, we have nothing more real than the current capitalization of the company and its latest profit. Everything else is just predictions and probable estimates.
It is also important to understand that during the purchase of shares, the investor fixates one of the P/E components - the price (P). Therefore, they only need to keep an eye on the earnings (E) and calculate their own P/E without paying attention to the current capitalization.
If the level of earnings increases since the purchase of shares, the investor's personal P/E will decrease, and, consequently, the number of years to wait for recoupment.
Another thing is when the earnings level, on the contrary, decreases – then an investor will face an increase in their P/E level and, consequently, an increase in the payback period of their own investments. In this case, of course, you have to think about the prospects of such an investment.
You can also argue that not all 100% of earnings are spent paying dividends, and therefore you can’t use the level of earnings to calculate the payback period of an investment. Yes, indeed: it is rare for a company to give all of its earnings to dividends. However, the lack of a proper dividend level is not a reason to change anything in the formula or this interpretation at all, because retained earnings are the main fundamental driver of a company's capitalization growth. And whatever the investor misses out on in terms of dividends, they can get it in the form of an increase in the value of the shares they bought.
Now, let's discuss how to interpret the obtained P/E value. Intuitively, the lower it is, the better. For example, if an investor bought shares at P/E = 100, it means that they will have to wait 100 years for their investment to pay off. That seems like a risky investment, doesn't it? Of course, one can hope for future earnings growth and, consequently, for a decrease in their personal P/E value. But what if it doesn’t happen?
Let me give you an example. For instance, you have bought a country house, and so now you have to get to work via country roads. You have an inexpensive off-road vehicle to do this task. It does its job well and takes you to work via a road that has nothing but potholes. Thus, you get the necessary positive effect this inexpensive thing provides. However, later you learn that they will build a high-speed highway in place of the rural road. And that is exactly what you have dreamed of! After hearing the news, you buy a Ferrari. Now, you will be able to get to work in 5 minutes instead of 30 minutes (and in such a nice car!) However, you have to leave your new sports car in the yard to wait until the road is built. A month later, the news came out that, due to the structure of the road, the highway would be built in a completely different location. A year later your off-road vehicle breaks down. Oh well, now you have to get into your Ferrari and swerve around the potholes. It is not hard to guess what is going to happen to your expensive car after a while. This way, your high expectations for the future road project turned out to be a disaster for your investment in the expensive car.
It works the same way with stock investments. If you only consider the company's future earnings forecast, you run the risk of being left alone with just the forecast instead of the earnings. Thus, P/E can serve as a measure of your risk. The higher the P/E value at the time you buy a stock, the more risk you take. But what is the acceptable level of P/E ?
Oddly enough, I think the answer to this question depends on your age. When you are just beginning your journey, life gives you an absolutely priceless resource, known as time. You can try, take risks, make mistakes, and then try again. That's what children do as they explore the world around them. Or when young people try out different jobs to find exactly what they like. You can use your time in the stock market in the same manner - by looking at companies with a P/E that suits your age.
The younger you are, the higher P/E level you can afford when selecting companies. Conversely, in my opinion, the older you are, the lower P/E level you can afford. To put it simply, you just don’t have as much time to wait for a return on your investment.
So, my point is, the stock market perception of a 20-year-old investor should differ from the perception of a 50-year-old investor. If the former can afford to invest with a high payback period, it may be too risky for the latter.
Now let's try to translate this reasoning into a specific algorithm.
First, let's see how many companies we are able to find in different P/E ranges. As an example, let's take the companies that are traded on the NYSE (April 2023).
As you can see from the table, the larger the P/E range, the more companies we can consider. The investor's task comes down to figuring out what P/E range is relevant to them in their current age. To do this, we need data on life expectancy in different countries. As an example, let's take the World Bank Group's 2020 data for several countries: Japan, India, China, Russia, Germany, Spain, the United States, and Brazil.
To understand which range of P/E values to choose, you need to subtract your current age from your life expectancy:
Life Expectancy - Your Current Age
I recommend focusing on the country where you expect to live most of your life.
Thus, for a 25-year-old male from the United States, the difference would be:
74,50 - 25 = 49,50
Which corresponds with a P/E range of 0 to 50.
For a 60-year-old woman from Japan, the difference would be:
87,74 - 60 = 27,74
Which corresponds with a P/E range of 0 to 30.
For a 70-year-old man from Russia, the difference would be:
66,49 - 70 = -3,51
In the case of a negative difference, the P/E range of 0 to 10 should be used.
It doesn’t matter which country's stocks you invest in if you expect to live most of your life in Japan, Russia, or the United States. P/E indicates time, and time flows the same for any company and for you.
So, this algorithm will allow you to easily calculate your acceptable range of P/E values. However, I want to caution you against making investment decisions based on this ratio alone. A low P/E value does not guarantee that you are free of risks . For example, sometimes the P/E level can drop significantly due to a decline in P (capitalization) because of extraordinary events, whose impact can only be seen in a future income statement (where we would learn the actual value of E - earnings).
Nevertheless, the P/E value is a good indicator of the payback period of your investment, which answers the question: when should you consider buying a company's stock? When the P/E value is in an acceptable range of values for you. But the P/E level doesn’t tell you what company to consider and what price to take. I will tell you about this in the next posts. See you soon!
XAUUSD How to enter on the retest (tutorial)Whats up gold gang! hope you have enjoyed your weekend .. its nearly market open .. so lets get ready.
This weeks educational post is talking about the retest .. so what is a retest. When price breaks a banking level .. i normally enter on the break out .. but if i miss that .. you can wait for the retest. This is where price comes back to the level to collect more orders before shooting off in the direction of the current trend.
Wait for a wick rejection at the banking level and a bullish candle to follow .. on the hour or 30m is the best .. then you can enter on the break of the previous bullish. Make sure this is at volume time around the opens.
As anything .. it sounds simple .. but tricky to get right .. and is a lower probability set up compared to the standard breakout.
Hope this was helpful guys .. please leave a like if you did. Ill be back tonight for the open and asian outlook going into tomorrow
tommyXAU
Importance of Comparing Automated Trading Strategies to Buy&HoldImportance of Comparing Automated Trading Strategies to Buy&Hold | 04/15/23
Recently, TradingView introduced a new backtesting feature that allows traders to compare their trading strategy to simple "buy and hold" strategies. This has proven to be very useful for our trading team and crypto community, especially when attempting to find the best settings for manual and automated trading scripts, such as our Ninja Signals V4 script, so we wanted to highlight this awesome new feature.
In this example, we used TradingView's new 'Compare to Buy & Hold' feature to compare our chosen configuration settings for our Ninja Signals V4 automated trading script and backtesting strategy. As you can see, our chosen settings have performed significnatly better than simple "buy and hold" strategies over the last several years (compare the green strategy profit line to the blue "buy and hold" profit line).
This new TradingView feature is very powerful, because it helps traders determine if a trading strategy is more or less profitable than simply buying and holding. Just because a trading strategy produces some profit does not mean that it is worth trading, especially if simple "buy and hold" strategies out-perform your chosen trading settings.
The settings used in this chart performed well even the recent bear market. As you can see in the strategy statistics, as "buy and hold" strategies were losing profit, the settings we used for our Ninja Signals V4 trading script were actually gaining profit. This new TradingView tool improves our ability to find good settings for both manual and automated trading strategies, and gives additional confirmation that profitable trading settings are better than simple "buy and hold" strategies.
Furthermore, the settings we used in this chart have compounding turned off, meaning each trade is the same order size, without any reinvesting of profits. Even as our trading fund grows from this profitable trading strategy, we continue to simply place orders for the same amount each time, rather than re-investing profits to trade larger and larger amounts (known as "compounding"). If compounding is turned on, profits grow much faster, but that is beyond the scope of this publication.
We will publish a separate educational idea in the future about the importance of comparing "compounding" vs "non-compounding" settings when backtesting, but for the purposes of this chart, we simply wanted to share that we were able to achieve significant profits, even in a bear market, and even with no compounding (no reinvesting of profits).
In conclusion, the new TradingView "Compare to Buy & Hold" backtesting feature gives traders a powerful new tool to find better settings for their chosen trading strategy, and additional confirmation and confidence that live trading will be successful. We thank the TradingView team for adding this powerful new feature!
Price / Earnings: Interpretation #1In one of my first posts , I talked about the main idea of my investment strategy: buy great “things” during the sales season . This rule can be applied to any object of the material world: real estate, cars, clothes, food and, of course, shares of public companies.
However, a seemingly simple idea requires the ability to understand both the quality of “things” and their value. Suppose we have solved the issue with quality (*).
(*) A very bold assumption, I realize that. However, the following posts will cover this topic in more detail. Be a little patient.
So, we know the signs of a high-quality thing and are able to define it skilfully enough. But what about its cost?
"Easy-peasy!" you will say, "For example, I know that the Mercedes-Benz plant produces high-quality cars, so I should just find out the prices for a certain model in different car dealerships and choose the cheapest one."
"Great plan!" I will say. But what about shares of public companies? Even if you find a fundamentally strong company, how do you know if it is expensive or cheap?
Let's imagine that the company is also a machine. A machine that makes profit. It needs to be fed with resources, things are happening in there, some cogs are turning, and as a result we get earnings. This is its main goal and purpose.
Each machine has its own name, such as Apple or McDonald's. It has its own resources and mechanisms, but it produces one product – earnings.
Now let’s suppose that the capitalization of the company is the value of such a machine. Let's see how much Apple and McDonald's cost today:
Apple - $2.538 trillion
McDonald's - $202.552 billion
We see that Apple is more than 10 times more expensive than McDonald's. But is it really so from an investor's point of view?
The paradox is that we can't say for sure that Apple is 10 times more expensive than McDonald's until we divide each company's value by its earnings. Why exactly? Let's count and it will become clear:
Apple's diluted net income - $99.803 billion a year
McDonald's diluted net income - $6.177 billion a year
Now read this phrase slowly, and if necessary, several times: “The value is what we pay now. Earnings are what we get all the time” .
To understand how many dollars we need to pay now for the production of 1 dollar of profit a year, we need to divide the value of the company (its capitalization) by its annual profit. We get:
Apple - $25.43
McDonald’s - $32.79
It turns out that in order to get $ 1 earnings a year, for Apple we need to pay $25.43, and for McDonald's - $32.79. Wow!
Currently, I believe that Apple appears cheaper than McDonald's.
To remember this information better, imagine two machines that produce one-dollar bills at the same rate (once a year). In the case of an Apple machine, you pay $25.43 to issue this bill, and in the case of a McDonald’s machine, you pay $32.70. Which one will you choose?
So, if we remove the $ symbol from these numbers, we get the world's most famous financial ratio Price/Earnings or P/E . It shows how much we, as investors, need to pay for the production of 1 unit of annual profit. And pay only once.
There are two formulas for calculating this financial ratio:
1. P/E = Price of 1 share / Diluted EPS
2. P/E = Capitalization / Diluted Net Income
Whatever formula you use, the result will be the same. By the way, I mainly use the Diluted Net Income instead of the regular one in my calculations. So do not be confused if you see a formula with a Net Income – you can calculate it this way as well.
So, in the current publication, I have analyzed one of the interpretations of this financial ratio. But, in fact, there is another interpretation that I really like. It will help you realize which P/E level to choose for yourself. But more on that in the next post. See you!
Why do most traders end up losing moneyThis question is quite scary, but if you are a novice and see this question, congratulations, you are on the right path of trading.
The most important lesson to learn before entering the financial markets is risk expectation.
You can ask yourself, how much money do you want to make from trading? Is your goal asset appreciation, or a small fortune?
If a trade loses money, will it affect your own life?
Is your own character able to stop losses in time, or do you have no self-control?
After asking these questions, we decide whether to enter the financial market.
So why do the vast majority of traders lose money?
1. Because of the particularity of the financial market.
I believe that many friends have heard of the 28 rule. For example, in the distribution of wealth in our society, 20% of people control 80% of social wealth; 20% of people will persist in encountering difficulties, and 80% of people will give up when encountering difficulties.
The rule of 28 is ubiquitous in life, and it also determines what kind of people will succeed and what kind of people will fail.
As for the financial market, it is crueler than real life, because there are no rules in this market, only human nature, so the financial market even surpasses the rule of 28, and less than 10% of people may make profits. In the face of money, most people want to make a big fortune with a small amount, and want to turn around by trading, so those who have stable personalities, strong self-control, low income expectations, and money in their hands are silently harvesting these people who are eager for quick success.
Some people may say that the world is inherently unfair, and those who hold funds can only survive because of the capital.
Actually no. We Xiaosan hold small funds, and we can achieve low return expectations, or we can do it slowly, but how many people are just anxious to make money? Just want to make a big difference with a small one? Just don’t regard money as money, and think it’s a big deal to take a gamble, and if it’s gone, it’s gone?
So it has nothing to do with the amount of capital, but has something to do with people. In financial markets, human nature is the rule.
2. Too many people are dominated by human nature.
As I said before, there are no rules in the financial market, and human nature is the rule.
Trading is a very anti-human thing. Human nature is greedy for comfort, averse to risk, afraid of losing, feeling that one's level is higher than others, hating giving and learning, impatient, etc., which will be infinitely magnified in trading.
There is a saying in the trading industry that trading can be profitable, mentality accounts for 70%, and technology accounts for 30%. In actual combat, it seems that it is not difficult for traders to see the market correctly, but it is very difficult to complete this wave of market and make profits. Why?
I give two examples.
For example, the problem of stop loss in trading.
Seeking advantages and avoiding disadvantages is a characteristic of human nature, unwillingness to lose, unwilling to accept losses, this is human self-protection awareness. Stopping losses in the wrong direction means losing our real money, who can bear it? So in actual combat, many people rationally know that the direction is wrong, but they just don't stop losses, and even increase their positions against the trend, floating orders, allowing the stop loss to become bigger and bigger, and finally lead to serious losses.
Another example is the profitable position in the transaction.
The market trend always fluctuates upwards, or fluctuates downwards, and profit taking in positions is often encountered. Once profits are withdrawn, we will have a sense of insecurity in our hearts, worrying about the reversal of the market and losing profits. This insecurity is also due to human nature.
Even if we rationally know that the profit target has not yet been reached, we should continue to hold positions, but the little emotion of longing for peace of mind has been tormenting us, and in the end we couldn't help but close the position, and made a lot of less money. We comfort ourselves that it is all right, at least there is no loss. But in fact, less earning = loss, because the amount you lose next time will be greater than the money you earn. In the long run, your overall loss will be.
There are many such examples, such as betting on the market, heavy trading, unwillingness to admit defeat, stop loss leading to liquidation, etc., are all caused by the aversion to loss in human nature and the fear of failure.
In fact, if we look at the trading market 100 years ago, it is basically the same as the current human nature problem. The weakness of human nature is very strong, and it is also the main reason why traders lose money.
So at the beginning, I asked everyone to ask themselves those questions, just to let everyone understand their own personality, their current situation, and their human nature, so as to help you win certain opportunities in the trading market.
Trading is like a free game. It seems that the threshold is low and no money is required, but in fact some hidden costs are contained in it, and the human nature is clearly played for you. Therefore, before making a transaction, you must have an existing risk expectation, and then think about making money.