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Assigned With A Wheel Trade & The Market TanksI’m Markus Heitkoetter and I’ve been an active trader for over 20 years. I often see people who start trading and expect their accounts to explode, based on promises and hype they see in ads and e-mails. They start trading and realize it doesn’t work this way. The purpose of these articles is to show you the trading strategies and tools that I personally use to trade my own account so that you can grow your own account systematically. Real money…real trades. In this article, I want to talk about what to do when you get assigned with a Wheel trade. Previously, I have shown you the Wheel strategy. It’s a strategy that I’ve been trading for several months and I haven’t had a single losing trade yet, knock on wood. So I received a lot of comments on my videos asking, “Yeah. That’s all good. But what do you do when you get assigned with a Wheel trade and the market crashes?” And that’s exactly what we are going to talk about today. What To Do When You Get Assigned With A Wheel Trade I want to show you how to handle getting assigned when the market crashes by using a real trade as an example where this happened to me, and I couldn’t have timed it more perfectly because a little over a month ago, on October 28th, I was recently in such a trade. The market was down more than 3% and it was a bloodbath. Luckily, this scenario provides me with an opportunity to use it as a template to show you what to do when this happens. The TQQQ trade I was in at the time works as a perfect example, so let me just show you how things panned out. So with this TQQQ trade, had an open P&L of -$2,667. So what does this mean? Does it mean that we do have a big loss here? No. This is only an unrealized loss, and this is how I handled it. I simply followed the 5 steps of The Wheel strategy, and the 5 steps are as follows: Pick a stock that’s going sideways or slightly moving up. Sell a Put Option , i.e. you have to buy the stock at the strike price. Collect Premium and buy the Put back when we see 90% of the profits. If we get assigned, i.e. have to buy the stock, we will sell Covered Calls against these shares to try and sell the shares at the strike price. Collect premium and buy the Call back when we see 90% of the profits. Selling Puts The trade initially started on September 3rd, so let’s backtrack a little bit to really dissect it step by step. TQQQ met all my criteria, and on September 3rd is when I first trading this. September 3th, when I started trading this, I sold 150 put for $0.66, which is $66 because I traded one contract, and one contract represents 100 shares. The next day I got assigned. I got assigned because when you’re selling puts it means that if the stock goes below the strike price at expiration, 150 in this case, I would get assigned. This is exactly what happened a day later when the option expired. So I made $66 by collecting premium, even though I got assigned 100 shares at $150/share, but here’s the deal. Since I sold the put for $0.66 this means that my cost basis, since I keep that premium regardless of whether I am assigned or not, gets lower. So this means that the $150 a share I paid minus the $0.66 I collected per share, brings my cost basis down to $149.34. Now doesn’t sound a lot, but it basically means that the stock now does not have to go above $150 anymore. As soon as TQQQ goes up to $149.34 I’m breaking even. Now if it goes above this, I’m making money. Simple right? Selling Covered Calls Now that we have been assigned, this is where we start selling Covered Calls. When you sell Covered Calls against these shares, the goal is to try and sell them at that strike price of that Call, while collecting more premium. Here’s the trade that I did. I sold a 155 Call for $2.10 on the 10th after realizing 90% of the profits, I bought it back for $0.37 the next day. So $2.10 minus $0.37 means I made $173. And now my cost basis gets reduced by another $1.73. Well, now our cost basis is going lower. Our cost basis of $149.34 drops by $1.73, so our new cost basis is now $147.61. This means that if the stock goes back to $147.61 we break even, and if it goes above we are making money. Easy right? Next, I sold the September 80 Call, the September 18 150 Call, for $0.45, then bought it back for $0.05. So this means at this point we made another $40, bringing our cost basis down by another $0.40 to $147.21. The stock kept going against us. It was going down and this is what many of you are concerned about. “What do I do if the stock keeps going down?” Well, you keep selling premium, and by doing so, you’re lowering the cost basis. Well, what I did next was really cool. Selling More Puts? So next, I sold actually two puts for $110 and $118. So that averages out to $114. Then I bought them back at $0.06. This means $114 minus $0.06. So we made another $108 here. Now I’ll explain in a moment why I sold a put here even though right now since we own stocks, and we should be selling calls. There’s a very specific reason for it, and I’ll explain it to you. Looking back at our trade, we are lowering our cost basis to $146.13. Next, after we sold the puts and they expired worthless I actually sold another 100 put for $2.40 and bought it back for $24. So we made another $216 here. Bringing our cost basis down again from $146.13 minus $2.16 to now $143.97. When To Sell Puts INSTEAD Of Calls So if you are supposed to sell Covered Calls during this stage of The Wheel Strategy, why did I sell those Puts? I already owned 100 shares of TQQQ that were assigned to me, so why risk getting assigned more? Well, I sold these Puts, instead of Calls for a specific reason. At this stage of The Wheel Strategy is where you normally would sell Calls, however, if you are on this part of this strategy, and the market is tanking, you have to make an adjustment to this strategy if the price keeps dropping, to help keep your cost basis as low as possible. These were 100 Puts, meaning if the price would have dropped below $100 at expiration for either of them, and I would have been assigned the shares. If that were to happen, I would now own 100 shares at $100 each, on top of the 100 shares I already own at $150 each. So now I own 200 shares, I paid a total of $250 for, bringing the average price per share to $125. Getting assigned these shares would have lowered my cost basis tremendously. If you subtract the total Premium I received on all of these trades, which was $12.05 a share ($1,205 overall) from the average price per share, which in this case is now $125, this comes to a cost basis of $112.95. This is what the cost basis would have been IF I was assigned these additional 100 shares at $100 each. I wasn’t assigned these shares, however, and my final cost basis was $137.95. Do you see why getting assigned is a good thing? People are afraid of getting assigned, but as long as you have adequate buying power, and are following my methods for picking good stocks, assignment should be looked at as a good thing. Selling Premium You see, this is what the Wheel does. You can sell premium while you own the stocks. So I then sold a $150 call for $1.57, bought it back at 15. So this means that I made another $142 bringing down my cost basis again to $142.55. Now, I don’t want to bore you and make this article too long here, but long story short, as you can see, I sold a few more of the calls and I bought them back. So overall, by just selling premium, even though I still owned the stock, I was continuing to lower my cost basis. At this point, the stock was down $2,770. However, by doing this, by selling more calls and puts here, I was able to make $1,748 in premium. So this means I made $17.48 per share on these 100 shares. So if you take the $150 minus $17.48 right now, right now my cost basis to break even on this trade is $132.52. So as soon as TQQQ goes back to $132. Now, what happens if TQQQ keeps going down? I will keep doing what I’ve been doing, following The Wheel Strategy. I’ll keep collecting premium until at some point, I can sell these shares for a profit. Recap So now you know what to do when you get assigned with a Wheel trade, and hopefully, it becomes less scary for you. I look forward to getting assigned with a Wheel trade because that allows me to sell calls and make even more money. If the stock keeps going down, I’ll just keep selling, and I will continue to lower my break even more and more. So, right now, TQQQ does no longer have to go all the way up to 150. It only needs to go up to $132.52. I just wanted to address this process because I know that many people who are trading this strategy are concerned saying, "Oh my gosh, what if I get assigned with a Wheel trade?” It’s a good thing. It’s a good thing and now you know why.
NASDAQ:TQQQEducation
by rockwelltrading
1
Trading parallel channel like Proin parallel channel there are two trend lines parallel to each other. You buy/sell at trend line. near the yellow arrow sign. you multiple resistance trend line fib retracement previous support now turned into resistance trade always have two part Entry and exit you have multiple resistance to sell and you exit at 100% projection of wave at lower trend line of channel this is perfect example : How you can trade using trend lines, fib retracement and extension, support and resistance. (market doesn't give you this type trade everyday. so you have to wait which strategy is giving you signal to trade. if you wait you always spot this type of trade easily ).
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Sangam-Agarwal
2
Cash Secured vs Naked PutsI’m Markus Heitkoetter and I’ve been an active trader for over 20 years. I often see people who start trading and expect their accounts to explode, based on promises and hype they see in ads and e-mails. They start trading and realize it doesn’t work this way. The purpose of these articles is to show you the trading strategies and tools that I personally use to trade my own account so that you can grow your own account systematically. Real money…real trades. Cash Secured vs Naked Puts What I want to talk about right now is the difference between cash secured vs naked puts. If you've been following Coffee with Markus, then you know that recently there was a comment from someone who said “They are the same thing!” Of course, that is not the case. So in this article, I’ll show you the differences between cash secured vs naked puts. I’ll also explain why I highly recommend that you trade cash secured puts when trading the Wheel strategy. Selling A Put Option When you sell a put option it means that you have to buy the stock at the strike price that you sold it for if the contract is exercised at expiration. This is very important, and you are obligated to do it. So, therefore, obviously what you want is that the stock stays above the strike price that you chose. Because in this case, you just keep the premium. Now, let me give you a very, very specific example here. Put Example: IBM So recently, I sold a 115 put on IBM . I did this with three days to expiration and I received a premium of $43 per option that I traded. Now, I traded two options, or two contracts. So this means that I received $86 in premium. If you divide this by three days, this means that we are looking at approximately $29 per day in premium, which is what I’m looking for. I mean, this is how I have achieved the very systematic results here of 22.7% over the last three months, and if I can keep this up, this would translate into 19.8% per year. So thus far, what does it have to do with cash secured or naked puts here? In this example, as long as IBM stays above 115 until expiration, I would just keep the $86 in premium and the option expires worthless. However, if IBM would close below 115 at expiration, then I have to buy 100 shares of IBM at a price of $115. So in my case, since I have sold two options, I would have to buy 200 shares of IBM at $115. This means that I would have to bring $23,000 to the table. But here’s the deal. In order to sell these puts, my broker only required around $4,400. Let’s take a look at this. See IBM here, it says capital required $4,453. That’s only 20% of the money that I actually need to buy the shares. The Differences Between Cash Secured vs Naked Puts Now let’s talk about the difference between cash-secured puts and naked puts. Cash secured puts mean that you have $23,000 in your account to cover the stocks if you are getting assigned. So if you only had $5,000 in your account, you could still place the trade. As you can see, the broker only required $4,453. However, you wouldn’t have enough money to actually buy the shares if you got assigned. This means that you sold the naked puts. You just don’t have enough money. You just had enough money for the broker, what he required to sell it. So why would the broker let me sell the puts for only $4,400 when I need $23,000 to buy the shares if I get assigned? Well, here is why the broker does it. He does it for two reasons. Reason number one, most options expire worthless. And number two, even if they don’t expire worthless most traders buy the option back. So they close it before they expire and the broker knows that. That’s why he’s only requesting 1/5 of the buying power that you need for buying the shares. And that’s all good as long as you close your position before expiration. However, when trading the Wheel, you actually want to get assigned. It is part of the strategy. You see, we not only sell a put option, if we get assigned we will sell calls and get the premium. So the question now is… What Happens If You Don’t Have Enough Money And You Get Assigned? Let’s say you have $5,000 in your account and you entered this trade. Now IBM is below 115 at expiration and you have to buy 200 shares at $115, but you don’t have the money. So what happens? Well, now your broker is buying them for you and you get a so-called ‘margin call’. What does it mean? A margin call basically means the broker asks you to wire the remaining $19,000 that you need for this into the account, and he wants to have this pretty much that day. What happens if you don’t have the money? If you don’t do this, the broker will sell the shares the next day at whatever price he can get. So this means that you lose all control over this trade. Your broker is now in control and that’s not good. You see, when trading the Wheel strategy you want to remain in control. After we get assigned the shares, we want to sell calls against it and collect even more premium. Summary I highly recommend that you trade cash-secured puts so that you have enough money in the account in case you get assigned. This way, you have full control over your shares and you can actually make money with them. Now you know the difference between cash-secured puts vs naked puts and you know when to use what.
NYSE:IBMEducation
by rockwelltrading
2
4 simple steps to create your perfect strategyHello traders, Introduction How many times did you find a perfect strategy giving great results in backtest but wasn't working for LIVE trading? This effect is due to "overfitting" your past signals giving great historical results in a past environment. Overfitting means you're forcing the results to look great; hence not realistic; knowing the historical price action. Unfortunately, new traders don't know how random financial markets could be. Then, a backtest with very controlled and precised conditions is often irrelevant for real/live trading. Building a trading system is like solving a puzzle. We don't define the entries and exits separately - entries are defined relative to the exits and vice-versa. Imagine a RubixCube where solving one face of the cube could mess up with the other faces of that cube. Step 1 - Define your entries Finding entries is the easiest step. Most indicators on a big timeframes give great entries but poor exits. I appreciate low timeframes a lot as it gives me a better control of my RISK. Thinking that low timeframes require more reactivity is a myth... If we use the standard values from our trading indicators - yes sure, we often enter/exit dozen of times before the real move happens - and when it happens we're too exhausted to trade it well. This is weird that many traders use common indicators with their standard values regardless of the timeframe. Think about using the MACD with the 12/26/9 or RSI with a 14 period for example. Using indicators with low values doesn't work neither for manual or automated trading. The new traders wreck themselves either via exhaustion (manual trading) or with paying too many fees (both manual and automated trading). If your high timeframes trades get invalidated/stopped-out, the drawdown is painful - and you really feel the pain if you use a big position size or a too high leverage... (please don't). What I'm going to say is going to shock a lot of our readers I know. Entries don't matter by themselves. If your exits are not well-thought, you're guaranteed to lose regardless of how great your entries are. Step 2 - Define your exits A strategy without exits (Stop-Loss for example), gives a win-rate by design of 100%. This is the most-common mistake apprentice quant traders make: they think first about PROFIT when actually they must think about the RISK first. How much you can lose is more important than how much you can win (by far). If you don't think about your RISK first, I tell you what's going to happen Maybe you would have predicted the correct directions, but the unrealized drawdown + trading fees + funding will get you bankrupt before the move. Anyone else already experienced this? Step 3 - Backtest From here, you don't even need to use a backtest system. What I do is setting my chart days/weeks before the current date and then scrolling-right from there until the current date. The goal is visually checking a few crucial things (in that order exactly): A) Are my entries early enough? B) If stopped-out how much do I lose in average? C) What's the average profit I can make per trade? per day? per week? You probably noticed that I don't mind the statistical data like win-rate, profit-factor, etc - I don't mind them because they're not relevant. A backtest with a high win-rate, high profit-factor, high EVERYTHING could still not perform well for LIVE trading if the system is "overfitted". Let's dig-in quickly into those 3 steps. A) Are my entries early enough? There is nothing worse than entering too late - this is obvious because it increases your drawdown if any and reduces your potential profit. B) If stopped-out how much do I lose in average? The most important item of the list If your entries are late, we get now that your stops are painful for your capital and psychology. Even early entries could have terrible exits - and you may still lose I don't use a price/percentage level stop-loss. This is too subjective and to speak frankly... not working. There is a great chance to get filled because of slippage even if the candles never hit your stop-loss order level and then we .... cry and rage because we predicted the correct direction but not the correct potential drawdown. I'm 100% convinced it happens too often (to be profitable) for all traders using those stop-losses. I won't say it enough... Use a hard-exit for your stop-loss - it could be an indicator or multiple indicators giving an opposite signal. Of course, it should be based on candle close - not candle high/low to remove almost completely the slippage risk . For the take-profits, that's exactly the same concept. I don't use price/percentage levels but a combination of Simple Moving Average(s), Traditional Pivots and Fibonacci Pivots C) What's the average profit I can make per trade? per day? per week? The goal of any trader: making money and quitting their jobs... I know. That's why we shall not forget about the average profit we can make per trade and per period (day, week, month, ...). Here it's important to have written goals and stick to them. Assuming I want to make 500 USD a day, then I build a system giving me in average 500 USD a day with the lowest risk possible. Step 4 - Rinse and Repeat Creating your strategy is a continuous process - not a one step and you're "done". After the previous step, you may notice some irregularities, some errors, some disturbing elements. If my entries are late, or exits are late/too big then I go back to the first step and repeat the whole process. With some experience, building a successful model for the asset and timeframe you want to trade shall take you no more than a few hours. This is quite fast by the way and you'll already be ahead of most traders out there. Conclusion Building your perfect strategy becomes easier with experience and after a lot of trials. There is no shortcut for becoming rich - you have to put up the work and be/stay focused. Dave
Education
by Daveatt
16
The only continiously working trade strategy/setup in the worldI'm sure you have spent couple life times reading trading analysis and tutorials on investing/trading/gambling/throwing digital numbers into black void.. whatever you wanna call this digital illusion where funny chart lines are in control of your life's happiness, making you a total willing or unwilling slave.... and NONE of the analyst's predictions work while all analysts are constantly wrong. Analysts and gurus always slimy weaseling out why their projected trade analysis didn't work out. The truth is that they and have no idea what they are doing, their charts are just pretty drawings to make themselves look cool and give themselves pseudo meaning of life. No one has a clue what they are doing, not even the robots, the robots just follow rules with no forward vision of future what so ever. Some analysts/traders look for affirmation from others in their charts, so they can say they got it right. Even if the analysts get it right 1/20th of the time it justifies 19 charts wasting your time, 19 wrong, but on the 20th they got right they will blow their load or gasm in some form or other, then print the chart out and poster on the wall, forever bragging how they can predict the markets. Do not worry, F the analysts, because I have knowledge of the only continuously working trade setup in the world. I developed this strategy just as I began trading while being advised by my ex bf. This is the only strategy that ever worked for me in my 20 years of experience in trading Crypto. Countless hours/days/weeks/years of reading guru and analyst charts, I have not grown smarter and all other strategies have created inconsistent returns and/or losses. This strategy does not care what the price is. You will never have to worry about missing out on a bubble. You will never have to research, look at fundamentals, or be invested or loyal to a stock/crypto/whatever magic poop you trading. Simply sort charts by volume/daily volatility and jump right in. This somewhat mimics the bots and you have to have the energy to do 1000's of exciting sweaty armpit trades while being glued to the monitor! It's what you wanted anyway- exciting emotions similar to gambling at casino, except with actual possibility to win. Couple notes of accumulated experience before doing any moves with strategy explained below: Never ever use leverage. I have over 500+ full account liquidations and I have smashed monitors and screamed and blown a lot of nerves. With this setup no leverage is needed. Never ever let a trade go wrong more than 10%. Never fomo into a pump, unless it's a real big pump. Always go all-in, never hesitate. Hesitation shows weakness. How can you tell yourself you are sure what you are doing if you only bring 50% of the stash at the exchange you are at? How can people believe and follow a weak-minded person that does not know where she is going? At most you can lose everything, and that is inevitable anyway with a grave or furnace waiting for you somewhere sometime. Do not trade when sleepy. Do not go for 2.99USD omelet breakfast while 3x on a $500k trade during extreme volatility on an alt-coin with no stop-loss. Do not long when price above 7MA in time frame. Do not be greedy. Close in time. Do not trade angry or revenge trade. 1-5% profit per day consistently is the goal, not big leverage. Use Limit order as often as possible. Find resistance points. Shorts can max profit of 100% by price going to zero. Longs have infinite upside. Short max 10%. Long only. Shorting does not work psychologically with this strategy. Here is the strategy, which is also have written up on the chart. I am using current BTC market at 15min for this strategy explanation because as mentioned above it does simply not matter what the price is, where it is going long term, or fundamentals or other useless indicators claiming to predict the future. #0 Watch in disbelief how the market continues to rise with no pull backs below moving averages. #1 Find some historic support that kind of looks like what other traders might be thinking is support simply because they have no idea what they doing while thinking they doing god's work by dreaming of being charting technician analysts at Goldman Sachs impressing the llittlle blad vampifien himself. #2 Wait for price to dump, never ever buy above moving averages in whatever impatient time frame you are in. Set some price movement alarms and get behind comp when phone rings and it starts to dump. Be greedy when others fearful. You'll know it' a dump when you just step back and chill until it comes. When it looks EXTRA fukt and you real glad you are out of the water, that is when it's time to step into the liquid. #3 Open aggr.trade on 1 second view & turn on sound. Get ready to fomo all-in. Adjust limit buy order price by the seconds so it's always slightly above current price. Hover your mouse on the buy-button ready to fomo all-in. When aggr.trade changes tone major way and volume spikes, hold your breath 20 seconds, then fomo-all-in slamming buy button. PRAY! You have no control! Put STOP LIMIT always 0.5% to 1% after FOMOing into trade. If you wrong, then you wrong. BREAKING THIS RULE IS YOUR SINGLE GREATEST MISTAKE. #4 Sell ALWAYS ALWAYS on the the 5th candle since opening trade. Pray you can sell it at the top of the candle, but sell while candle open regardless. In above chart/example, the absolute best you could done by HODLing trade from $12937 to $13154 is 1.677%, but with this FREE™ trading setup of 6x winning trades and 1x losing trade you are at 3.27%. Obviously trading fees eat a lot of profits and this may not be viable in this calm of a market, but during higher volatility or higher time frames this method works great. For me it has worked the best during the craziest volatility, when market is bouncing intra-hour up and down 2-3-4-5-10%. During the craziest times this method works the best. Trade 1: 13054/12937 = 1.00904 Trade 2: 12988/12937 = 1.00394 Trade 3: 13022/12937 = 1.00657 Trade 4: 13027/12964 = 1.00485 Trade 5: 13044/12955 = 1.00686 Trade 6: 13091/13009 = 1.00630 Trade 7: 12991/13059 = 0.99479 ---------------- 1.0327% The best things in life are free. Thank me later.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by cashonly
10
A filtered MACD strategy on the 1 hour chartA 1 hour chart strategy. Presented to you. When: - The price is above the 4 hours 100-EMA - The MACD & Signal(5) lines are below zero - The MACD (blue) crosses above the Signal (red) line We buy When: - The price is below the 4 hours 100-EMA - The MACD & Signal(5) lines are above zero - The MACD (blue) crosses below the Signal (red) line We sell To keep in mind: Specific to EURUSD (but it's almost the same thing with most major pairs that all have the same average true ranges): Stops are supposed to range from 15 to 40 points, with targets 30 to 80. The daily ATR ranging from 50 to 150 points. Anything below 30 pts target is starting to be too small and above 80 points it is too big we're not thinking intraday here. A quick backtest on EURUSD And that's already 21 trades for the EURUSD with a winrate of 52.4%, plus the title 5 setups that were a bit cherry picked I won't lie. I didn't even cherry pick them I got lucky on my first try (I thought I was continuing my backtest in July 2017 didn't realize it was on 2020) but I wouldn't expect an 80% winrate in general. EURUSD: 11 Wins. 10 Loss. 1:2 risk to reward. 52.4% winrate. Next is GBPUSD And here is another batch of 21 which is a good sample size. GBPUSD: 12 Wins. 9 Loss. 1:2 risk to reward. 57.1% winrate. It is important to zoom out (I know no one does it). A look at the daily chart. Just going to check quickly because it is getting boring. Should have taken the 5 minutes to make a script to filter this but I'm in too deep to go back now. And I just noticed I have been backtesting GBPUSD with the 200 EMA. Well nevermind, it is the same thing. Result wouldn't change much. And here I made the whole box. 12 Wins 19 Loss. Still a winrate of 38.7%. I can go for worse ones How about the recent EURUSD price action? 37.5% winrate If you think it gets immediatly better, here are the next ones: The findings: - When the conditions are good it won 55% of the time - When the conditions are average it won 38% of the time - When the conditions are bad (range plenty of false trends) it won 10% of the time With a RR of 2 the breakeven winrate is 33.33% But we have to include spreads. This strategy goes a bit further than "day trading" so stops and targets are quite wide. The typical stop/target is something like 25/50 (for EURUSD), the spread is 1 point. Other pairs of course are a bit more expensive. 50/25 = 2 49/26 = 1.88 breakeven winrate = 34.72% (10+38+55)/3 = 34.33% 🤔 ... Interesting coincidence... If the risk reward on average is of 1.88 and the winrate is 38% then the profit factor is 38*1.88/62 = 1.15 which is not very high but if the strategy takes a whole lot of small trades it is ok. The few cases I looked at prove nothing, this might have a blind winrate of 50%, 20%, or 33.33% (most likely). I don't know how to backtest with tools maybe I should learn so I can clic and let it execute for me... Stay tuned for a tutorial! :D You would have to execute this strategy when you think the price will trend. But not a very strong trend or there will never be a signal. An average or weak one, or something that contains trends, like what I have shown and backtested 3 times. So this means you'd still have to make a directional bet. There is no escape. Sorry no magic trick to avoid it. A directional bet on the price or on the volatility itself, the trends... Once you make your directional bet, what is the advantage of day trading with a macd strategy over just taking the trade and holding? The power of compounding. Here someone made a backtest on the daily chart for the S&P500, the strategy took 500 trades with a profit factor of 1.2 and returned 95%! Without counting any spread/commissions. And just holding the S&P during the same period returned 151%. Amazing. Then what is it that gets compounded with technical day trading? Easy. Losses & costs. Also causes to miss out when right about the direction. Lots of inconvenients, and no advantages. Sounds amazing. The power of COMPOUNDING™. Ye I'm not sold. There might be a tiny edge but it's just so worthless. Picking pennies... Got to imagine the amount of desperation to make any profit anyone would have to try that. And they'd probably end up losing. Why did I waste my time?
Education
by MrRenev
5
Can a Strategy be bought?To be successful as a trader, you have to understand that this activity is a continuous battle for survival. If you don't think like a warrior, you will have a very short life as a trader. More than eighty percent of retail and intraday traders will kill their accounts in their first three months. The most successful traders learn the painful and costly rules of survival in the markets through trial and error. The word "strategy" comes from the ancient Greek term stratēgía ("office of the general, command, generalate"), from stratēgós ("the leader or commander of an army, a general"), from stratós ("army") + ágō ("I lead, I conduct"). In other words, it is a matter of "thinking like a general". The most important book on this subject, the Sunzi Bingfa , poorly translated as "The Art of War", deals with planning and strategic analysis. The fact that this book deals with strategy, not war, explains why its methods are perfectly applicable to the planning of market operations and to any other activity that requires foresight and analysis. According to its author, the Chinese general and philosopher Sun Wu , known as Sunzi (Master Sun) or Sun tzu, success is not for the strongest or the most aggressive, but for those who best understand their situation and what their alternatives really are. By studying and understanding the strategic framework proposed by Sunzi, you will be able to analyze almost instantaneously any competitive situation in the markets, detect opportunities and make appropriate decisions. This contribution and the following ones are a tribute to the millenary wisdom of this classic work and a gift to those novice or expert traders who, like me, were defeated before the markets for not having a Strategist mentality. Dario van Krauser Strategists Trader
CME_MINI:NQU2020Education
by SunziTrader
4
Locking in a Profit Without Day TradingDay trading can be a quick way to capture intraday profits. However, not all accounts are suitable for day trading or can afford the pattern day trader requirements. If a trader has already completed three day trades in the past five trading days, it leaves them with two options when they have a profit on a newly opened position. 1. Either close the position, take the profit, and trigger a pattern day trade label or 2. Hold the position until the next day and hope the profit is still there. There is a third option that locks in a profit while still avoiding a day trade. This is done by legging into a debit spread. Legging into a Debit Spread A vertical debit spread is created when an investor buys-to-open (BTO) one option and sells-to-open (STO) another option further OTM. Both legs are opened on the same underlying equity and use the same expiration. However, both legs do not need to be opened at the same time. An investor can instead buy-to-open (BTO) the long leg first and then setup a sell-to-open (STO) order for another option further OTM. The STO order should be placed for a credit greater than or equal to the debit paid for the BTO leg. This is called legging into a debit spread. Example: BTO September 200 put for $10.00 of debit. Instead of placing a closing order for the 200 put, place an order to STO September 195 put for $10.00 of credit. When the STO order fills, this will create a September debit spread with a net debit of $0.00. (BTO for $10.00 debit - STO for $10.00 credit = $0.00 net debit) The risk on the trade is $0.00. The maximum risk, or potential loss, from a vertical debit spread is the net debit (cost basis) of the spread (BTO leg debit minus the STO leg credit). The potential profit is $5.00. The maximum profit that can be earned from a vertical debit spread is equal to the width of the spread minus the cost of opening the spread. No further action should be taken on this spread until the next trading day. Even placing a closing order the same day opens up the risk of being filled and tagged with two day trades. The next market day, a closing order should be placed to STC the entire spread for a credit. This order can be placed in premarket or at market open. Regardless of when the order is placed, it should be worked until the position is closed. When locking in a zero cost basis, the current value of the spread is the profit. Example: Holding a legged into debit spread with $0.00 cost basis. STC the spread for 3.40 of credit. The spread was BTO for $0.00 and STC for $3.40 resulting in a $3.40 profit. The total profit on the position is $3.40 per share, or $340 per contract. Locking in Profits This strategy can also be used to lock in profits of a position that was initially intended to be held overnight. An investor BTO a TSLA call based on an upcoming earnings play. TSLA moves 50 points going into market close and the current position has $25 of profit per share. Instead of using a day trade to close the position, STO an adjacent strike to create a debit spread to lock in a profit. Then BTO a new TSLA call to realign the account for the same earnings play. Example: 7/21 13:15 PM ET TSLA trading at 1560. BTO Aug 1560 Call for $150 per share. 14:30 PM ET TSLA is now trading at 1610. The Aug 1560 Call is now worth $175, equaling $25 of profit per share. STO Aug 1570 Call for $170 per share. This creates a debit spread with a $20 net credit . BTO for a debit of $150, STO for a credit of $170 = $20 net credit . This is now a debit spread with a credit as the cost basis. Depending on your trading platform, this may be shown as a negative cost basis. This is because it is a credit on a debit spread. Max risk = $20 profit, no risk on the trade. Locking in a credit is a guaranteed profit on the trade. Max profit = $30: $20 of credit + $10 of spread width. BTO the Aug 1605 call for $157 per share. This allows the account to still be setup for an earnings play. Net risk of the two positions is $157 debit - $20 credit = $137 of risk per share. Next Market Day: 7/22 9:30 AM ET TSLA gaps open to 1679 due to earnings. STC the Aug 1560/1570 debit spread for a credit of 6.70. Total profit on the spread is the $20 net credit + 6.70 of credit to close = $26.70 of profit per share or $2,670 of profit per contract. STC the Aug 1605 call for $195 credit. BTO for $157, STC for $195 = $38 profit per share or $3,800 profit per contract. Total profit is $64.70 on a net risk of $137 = 47.2% return and no day trades used. Credit on a Debit Spread In the above example, the stock moved enough for the STO leg to have a higher value than that of the debit paid on the BTO leg. This legging in allowed for a credit cost basis when normally a debit cost basis would be held if both legs had been opened at the same time. When the credit received on the STO leg is higher than the debit paid on the BTO leg, this creates a credit on the spread. This does not make it a credit spread. It is still a correctly constructed debit spread because the STO leg is further OTM than the BTO leg, but instead of holding a debit and risk on the trade, the position now has a credit, no risk on the trade, and a guaranteed profit If a debit spread with a credit is held until expiration and expires out of the money, the “loss” on the spread is actually a profit equal to the credit held. When a strike is OTM at expiration, it no longer has any value to it. It has lost all time value and because it is OTM, it contains no intrinsic (ITM) value. Example: The BTO leg for $150 is STC for $0.00 = $150 loss. The STO leg for $170 is BTC for $0.00 = $170 profit. $170 profit - $150 loss = $20 profit per share or $2,000 per contract. If both legs of the debit spread are in the money at expiration, the profit on the spread is equal to the credit held plus the spread width. When a strike is ITM at expiration, it only contains intrinsic (ITM) value. It has lost all time value. Example: AMZN settles at expiration at 1580. The 1560 call is 20 points ITM. The 1570 call is 10 points ITM. The BTO leg for $150 is STC for $20 = $130 loss. The STO leg for $170 is BTC for $10 = $160 profit. $160 profit - $130 loss = $30 profit per share or $3,000 per contract. It is not recommended to hold ITM spreads on American style options until expiration due to risk of assignment/exercise. American vs European Style Options Most stocks and ETF’s are American style options. This means that if the buyer of an option chooses to exercise or assign their rights they may do so at any time prior to expiration. Indexes such as SPX, NDX, and RUT are European style options. This means that any exercise or assignment may only occur at expiration. Trading spreads on European style options, can alleviate the concern of early exercise/assignment. If both legs are ITM, they can only be exercised or assigned at expiration. For American style options, the closer to expiration and the further ITM the STO leg is, the more likely it is to be exercised/assigned. This is why building time into the position is beneficial by using an expiration at least 2-3 weeks out. Additional Information This strategy works best on long options, BTO a call or BTO a put. It is not recommended to be used to lock in a profit on an existing debit or credit spread. While you can use this strategy to leg into a credit spread, debit spreads tend to be more efficient as credit spreads rely on rapid time value decay so generally require sooner expirations. The legging in strategy works with any spread width. However, the larger the spread width the further the underlying will have to move for the STO leg to be at the same value or higher than the cost basis of the BTO leg. When legging into wide spreads if you can lock in a cost basis less than the current spread value you still have profit potential. Legging into a debit spread is an efficient way to avoid day trading but still guarantee yourself a position that can be closed the next market day for a profit. As long as the debit spread is not at expiration or extremely far out of the money, the spread should have value to it. A zero cost basis debit spread can be closed for a profit equal to the current value of the spread. While locking in a credit on a debit spread results in a guaranteed profit equal to the credit on the spread plus the current value of the spread.
SP:SPXEducation
by NewCycleTrading
4
Power Of Finding mini patterns and PracticeHello daytraders, intraday and swing traders! One of the best ways to make profits is to focus on the details of the graph. Find small patterns (like the 2 triangles and cup and handle pattern), define your target, and limit your stop-loss (I recommend 2%). Finally, think in terms of 100 trades and calculate your profit percentage, you may do 5 bad consecutive trades, but what you have to do after is to improve your strategy, trust it. Mastery comes with practice!
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by GlobalInvestFutures
2
GBPJPY H4 testing /1000%+ gain data for 1000+ trades since 2007 Hi All Pleased share some back testing results on the H4 timeframe across some xxxjpy pairs, mainly GBPJPY. By testing H4 we have access to more data in time, so this video shows testing from 2007 with over 1000+ trades , so a substantial back test in my opinion. Entry is clear - we just follow the entry on screen Exit is clear - 3 exit options - Stop Loss (all of our SL's are dynamic and based from ATR - so we take into account volatility on every trade - you can still risk the same amount!) - TP3 target based on 1:8 Risk to Reward or lastly, close and enter on a reverse signal if this happens before the other 2 possible outcomes. Regards Darren
Education
by pow_removetheguesswork
Trader's Guide to Vertical Debit SpreadsThe strategies and ideas presented in this guide have been designed to provide you with a comprehensive program of learning. The goal is to guide you through the learning experience so you may be an independent, educated, confident and successful trader. There are numerous variations of traditional options strategies and each has a desired outcome. Some are very risky strategies and others require a considerable amount of time to find, execute and manage positions. Spreads are a limited risk strategy. Spreads Spreads are simply an option trade that combines two options into one position. The two legs of one spread position could have different expiration dates and/or different strikes. Spreads can be established as bearish or bullish positions. How the spread is constructed will define whether it is bullish (rising bias) or bearish (declining bias). Different types of spreads can be used for the same directional bias of the stock. For example, if the stock has a declining bias, a call credit spread or a put debit spread could be opened to take advantage of the same anticipated move down. In this guide we will be talking about Vertical Debit Spreads, which are a limited risk strategy. Learning how to manage risk is as important as learning the details of a strategy. Vertical Debit Spreads A vertical debit spread is created when an investor simultaneously buys-to-open (BTO) one option and sells-to-open (STO) another option. The premium paid for the BTO is always greater than the premium received for the STO thus, creating a net debit from the trader’s account. Example: BTO a call using the May 180 strike for a debit of $7.57 STO a call using the May 190 strike for a credit of $3.42 Net debit for the spread is $4.15 The proper construction of a vertical debit spread is to BTO an at-the-money (ATM) strike and STO the strike that is 5 – 10 points further out-of-the-money (OTM). When opening a call debit spread, further OTM means a higher strike. When opening a put debit spread, further OTM means a lower strike. Both legs are opened on the same underlying equity and use the same expiration month. The Delta Ratio Delta is a factor in how profitable a debit spread may be. When the underlying stock moves, the value of the options will change at the rate of the Delta. Delta values will be different for different strikes depending on how far out-of-the-money or in-the-money the strike is. Look at an options chain for the current expiration month. Find the Delta of the at-the-money strike and compare it to the Delta of a strike 20 points out-of-the-money. The ATM strike will always have a higher delta than the OTM strike. This means that the value of the ATM strike will change more quickly than the OTM strike, as the underlying stock moves. When properly constructed, a debit spread is designed to take advantage of the Delta relationship between the long and short options. By STO a strike further out-of-the-money than the BTO strike, the long leg will increase in value more rapidly than the short leg. This is referred to as the Delta Ratio. Put debit spreads are used when the stock shows a declining bias. Puts increase in value as the stock decreases in value. In this case, the long put would increase in value creating a profit. The short leg would increase in value creating a loss. However, as we learned earlier, due to the Delta Ratio, the long put is increasing in value faster than the short put is creating a loss. This will create an overall position profit as the stock moves down. Here is an example: Stock trading at 520 and has a declining bias. BTO 520 put STO 510 put This spread creates a debit of $4.80 Stock declines to 510 causing the values of the puts to increase. The position can now be closed for a profit. STC 520 put BTC 510 put The value of the spread has increased to $5.80. Since the stock declined in value, the put options are more expensive. The spread was BTO for a debit of $4.80 and STC for a credit of $5.80 resulting in a $1.00 profit. Call debit spreads are used when the stock shows a rising bias. Calls increase in value as the stock rises. In this case, the long call would increase in value creating a profit. At the same time, the short call would increase in value creating a loss. However, as we learned earlier, due to the Delta Ratio, the long call is increasing in value faster than the short call is creating a loss. Stock trading at 500 and has a rising bias. BTO 500 call STO 510 call This spread creates a debit of $4.80 Stock rises to 510 causing the values of the calls to also rise. The position can now be closed for a profit. STC 500 call BTC 510 call The value of the spread has increased to $5.80. Since the stock increased in value, the call options are more expensive. The spread was BTO for a debit of $4.80 and STC for a credit of $5.80 resulting in a $1.00 profit. Risk and Reward on Vertical Debit Spreads Reward The maximum profit that can be earned from a vertical debit spread is equal to the width of the spread minus the cost of opening the spread. For a vertical debit spread to realize the maximum potential profit, both legs of the spread would need to expire in-the-money which means the position would need to be held until expiration. I do not recommend holding positions until expiration. Short term movements in the stock/index plus limited time value decay provide opportunities to close out positions for a profit of about 10%. If a position is profitable and the trader decides to hold the position hoping for a bigger profit or in an attempt to carry the position to expiration, there is a good chance that the profit will disappear and the position could turn into a losing position. This also will increase the risk of assignment/exercise if trading an American style expiration. A good way to lose money is to wait for a bigger profit Risk The maximum risk, or potential loss, from a vertical debit spread is the net debit (cost basis) of the spread (BTO leg debit minus the STO leg credit). Example: BTO 2765 call for a debit of $11.70 STO 2770 call for a credit of $8.30 Cost basis of the spread is $3.40 $3.40 is the maximum risk. A maximum loss will occur when both strikes are out-of-the-money at expiration. Learning how to properly adjust positions will avoid this. A trader establishes a bullish (call) debit spread when the chart indicates a rising bias. The breakeven point is the lower strike price plus the net debit. Referring to the example above, if the stock was at 2768.40 at expiration, there would be no loss and no profit. Example of breakeven point on above debit spread: Stock settles at 2768.40 at expiration The 2765 strike is $3.40 ITM, the value of the strike has $3.40 of intrinsic value and no time value. The 2770 call expires OTM worthless and you keep the 8.30 of credit as profit. Since you do not want to exercise your right to own the stock, you sell the 2765 back at the price of $3.40. This results in a $8.30 loss. $11.70 BTO – $3.40 STC = $8.30 loss You get to keep the original credit of $8.30 from the 2770 call. This netted against the $8.30 loss results in breaking even on the position. A trader establishes a bearish (put) debit spread when the chart indicates a rising bias. The breakeven point is the BTO (higher) strike price minus the net debit. Calculating the Return The profit percent return is calculated by dividing the profit by the risk. After all, if the trade lost 100% of the risk that is the amount the trader would no longer have. In the example above, the net risk is $3.40. If the debit vertical spread trade resulted in a $1.00 profit, the percentage return would be 29.41% ($1.00 / $3.40). Lower risk drives higher returns relative to capital at risk. American vs European Style Options Most stocks and ETF’s are American style options. This means that if the buyer of an option chooses to exercise or assign their rights they may do so at any time prior to expiration. Indexes such as SPX, NDX, and RUT are European style options. This means that any exercise or assignment may only occur at expiration. Trading spreads on European style options, can alleviate the concern of early exercise/assignment. If both legs are ITM, they can only be exercised or assigned at expiration, which allows flexibility to continue to hold the position rather than take action to avoid assignment/exercise as would be suggested on American style options. Opening a new Put Debit Vertical Spread The following steps should be referred to when opening a new put debit vertical spread position: 1. Review the technical indicators on your chart and confirm there is a consensus between multiple indicators pointing to a declining bias. 2. Select an expiration that is one to three months out. One month is generally the minimum time to expiration you want to use. Building time into the position is advised in case it needs to be managed. The sweet spot for opening new positions is two months to expiration. 3. BTO the at-the-money (ATM) put strike. BTO the strike that is closest to the money. When the stock/index is trading between strikes, BTO the first strike higher than the current price of the stock. 4. STO the strike that is 10 points further out-of-the-money (OTM). With a put spread, further OTM means a lower strike. BTO ATM and STO 10 points further OTM will create a debit. Generally, when properly constructed, the debit will be in the range of $4.00 - $6.00. 5. When placing the order, always use a Limit order. A limit order specifies to the market the amount of the debit you will accept. A limit order will be filled at the specified limit or lower. Market orders should not be used. 6. With some stocks and indexes, the difference between the bid and ask is quite large. The broker will usually give you a quote called the “Mark”. This is the midpoint between the bid and ask. It is the price you should start with when submitting your limit debit order. 7. Calculate the risk of the position. Cost basis of position is risk. So a position with a debit of $4.50 would have a risk of $4.50. 8. Use the risk number to determine the number of contracts to open. Risk x 100 = the investment required for each contract. With $4.50 of risk and one contract, the total investment would be $450 ($4.50 x (1 contract x 100 shares per contract)). 9. Once you know the total investment required per contract, you can decide how many contracts to trade based on the size of your portfolio. Generally, allocating 5% of the total portfolio to each trade is good risk management. Smaller account sizes may require a higher investment per trade but should not exceed 10%. 10. After the trade has been opened, place a Good-til-Canceled (GTC) order to close the position for a $1.00 profit. A GTC order will stay active until market conditions are such that the position can be closed for a $1.00 profit. GTC orders execute automatically and do not require you to be in front of your computer to take advantage of the profit opportunity.
SP:SPXEducation
by NewCycleTrading
9
Your guide to success [Beginners start here]*************************** Getting started as a Padawan *************************** Learn about investing When you start you should be interested. There are many ways to learn about investing: Books/videos/the internet/Losing money trading for the first time. My first trades (both speculative and not) were Forex, but I really got started "full time" (still had a job at first but spent a good 12 hours a day in this) in Q4 2017 with the crypto bubble. I looked at charts by myself, I also watched hundreds of hours of videos on crypto, technical analysis, price action, markets, I read articles on the internet, I looked at alot of tradingview ideas (where I started to notice herd patterns just like in real life). Being able to filter out the garbage is on you, and you have to check by yourself every thing you learn. If you can't bother reading or hearing about monetary policies, the economy, charts, risk to reward, probabilities, now is a good time to quit. Pick markets you like more The "retail" markets are usually: Indices, stocks (especially us), forex, crypto, hard commodities. It's ok to go back and forth, and even when you pick say 1 or 2 main markets to look at, you can still take a peak from time to time at other ones, but careful, you only have 1 brain, and you might just end up losing money. My own experience: Forex (usd, eur, gbp, jpy, mxn, sek, aud, cad, nzd, chf), Commodities (Gold, Oil, NatGas, Copper). I sometimes look at other markets there might be something interesting and I might get something out: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Silver, Grains. I am a consistent loser in stocks and indices yikes. Not like slightly below breakeven. No, like 100% losing rate. Hey I got the holy grail. I dislike USDJPY, I love EURJPY, not sure about some trashpairs such as EURNZD. I like all USD pairs except USDJPY. In the crosses I like AUDCAD EURSEK GBPAUD GBPCAD GBPJPY EURJPY. Some interest in USDCNH sometimes. I look at USDZAR and USDTRY but never touch them. With time you get your favorites, your best and worse performers. Learn about that market specifics You may be shocked but different markets work differently. First of all different hours (fx = 24 hours a day 5 days a week, oil is open 23 hours a day, most cme agri have 2 trading sessions with 3 per-market, stocks trade 8 hours a day with a pre and post market, crypto is 247...). And then unlike what some people that have never made money say, sorry but they just behave differently. When you learn to trade penny stocks you can't be an all around jack of all trades that will be able to trade dirt in Kyrgyzstan. As I said I like (certain) forex pairs & commodities, and do best with those, one reason is because they trend on the timeframes I'm best at and prefer. FX trends for days, Stocks trend for months, and so on. The patterns are different, the trends are different, the valuation is different etc. Bitcoin had 3 bull markets, and they all lasted 1-2 years, going straight up, why would anyway look at a 4 hour chart? There is only 1 way to trade Bitcoin in those situation and this is buy and hold. You might have wanted to buy pullbacks and hold for each wave within the bull market in 2017, but that's still several months of holding. First 2 corrections were ok, maybe some multi day or week buy/sell there, the current one is absolutely disgusting except from a straight down in 2018 and straight up in 2019. Pick a timeframe I swear every one wants to either be: - A (lazy) passive investor that will get rich doing nothing, because people told them this is what works and always will (cough cough) - A (gambler) day trader that will get rich quick making 2% every day (hahaha), because this is how brokers make the most money the fastest 90/90/90 => 90% of traders lose 90% of their money in 90 days. This might be a little exagerated but that's the idea. Brokers know they'll all be gone in a few months so they push to day trade so these losses are as much as possible made via commission, rather than a few big bagholding losers that evaporate into the market in a few weeks. And as I said, different markets really work on different timeframes. FX (& Gold & Oil & so on) I think the best timeframes are H1 H4 D1, Bitcoin that would be the daily and weekly (during trends), stocks weekly and monthly I suppose (and daily during crashes). Keep in mind the lower the timeframe, the bigger the spread. If you want to day trade FX well I hope you enjoy having your reward to risk divided by 2. Other than the Dow Jones and Dax indices (and cryptos especially as MM on Bitmex) everything is really expensive to speculate on on very low timeframes. An exception: Ending markets. Gold in July 2020 when it went parabolic, Oil when it went negative, that sort of things. But why would you want to close a mighty winner at 5 pm and go watch tv when you should be staying in as long as the price is skyrocketing? A few more hours = a few more R. *************************** Getting ready to make money *************************** Have fun spending hours on statistics (backtesting) You heard people tell you what works and what does not. The stuff I hear... It's up to you to check if that 🎪 oversold RSI strategy works, and by looking at charts and taking notes, you will find out that it overwhelmingly does not. Forget about your dreams of building the perfect mecanical holy grail. You need to know what you are interested in at first (reversals, pullbacks, powerful breaks, buying highs & lows in sideways choppy markets and losing money...) and then look at that, have to start somewhere. If you try looking at everything then see you in the mental ward in 2 months. Just find what works, what does not. At least you should have a vague idea of where to enter, odds, etc. You can't just jump in blindly in anything because CNBC, because "cheap" and then as soon as it goes against you go "wow I have no idea what to expect and what to do" 😆. So typical. Pick a charting provider Most frustrate me to no end. I hate them with a passion. Is it that hard to let me freely scale and move my chart around? Really? You can put all those idiotic indicators to make sure day traders are as active as possible and lose as much as possible, but you cannot give us a simple measuring tool? Wow, just wow. TradingView is really good. I don't see what people could want more. Unless they miss a market idk the Kyrgyzstan stock market maybe, then I would say they have everything on the charting side. Use good news services Don't be a Scrooge McDuck and dish out that $24,000 for a yearly bloomberg terminal sub. Did you know they have 325,000 subscribers worldwide? We're obviously all poor and need to use what little money we have for essentials & risk capital. Under $2.5 million of risk capital I would not even consider it. You might think "oh no, I want to isolate from the news because hype because I want to not be emotional" or whatever. Now first of all you're crazy if you do because the hype & emotions are the best part and you are missing out on all the fun. And as we have seen I myself have a watchlist of 25 fx pairs (10 currencies), 4 commodities, plus a dozen or more other tickers I may be interested in. You want to only trade the price action, ok. You're actually going to carefully check 30 charts every single day? Wow. And not forget to check several dozen stocks indices etc from other markets regularly and be ready for a big move? Well congratulations rain man. The media & investor hype tells you what is interesting to watch. And I'm sure it helps your opinion and subconscious mind. In July the dollar crashed as it should, and accelerated in the second part of the month and then I kept looking for shorts and guess what I kept winning and had a monster month. Gold & silver went up back then but I was too busy, and I did join gold in August when it was past ath and there was some hype and the laggards were starting to buy. Deposit with a regulated decent broker that suits you You're all ready. Time to deposit on a good broker and promise yourself this time you won't blow your account. This time it'll work out. *************************** What you'll be doing for the rest of your life *************************** Look for ideas, "inspiration" That's when you look at charts and remember or tag or set an alert on the ones that seem interesting to you. And that's when the news in general can come in handy. "K what is undervalued" "K what is exploding up I want to join - er I mean fight the trend and get decimated". Price action or no price action, there is more to this business than just drawing lines on a chart and placing an order based on price action. Much more. Decide on what you want to see Say you have an interest in Oil, Gold, and the USDollar. It is required you see something to take action. A strong break followed by a small pullback? A double top accompanied by mainstreet euphoria, signaling a top? You are a sniper and you do not just rush to a rooftop and shoot at random passerbys hoping to get your target. This is what the USA did in the Obama era in Yemen with drones. You are not the USA. Have a plan before setting an order You shall NOT jump into something without a plan first, you are not Bud Spencer that punches first asks questions later. This is an order. The number of times I heard people go "Ok so I bought x. Price is going down. What should I do I have no idea? Please fast!". I heard, not from personal experience but from others, that even "pros" with at least months in a company, have been spotted asking those questions. You know who you are. Please don't do this. Hahaha I nearly cry when I think of this, is this a casino "Oh well I just went all in let's see what happens yolo". Trail your stop, at least bare min You're at 99% of your target, you're actually going to risk everything for that last little percent? Even if you don't care about missing out on additional gains, I do not get it. Why? At least move your stop 1/3 towards target when the price goes past 2/3. Myself I prefer to have something more evolved, where based on experience and backtested data I know approximately how much it should retrace and how much is 1- too much loss of my gains I am not willing to give away, 2- high probability or sideways or reversal. Log your last operation (in excel) Note everything you buy & sell in excel (or you can use something else I don't care I am a libertarian do what you want, except jump in with no plan, I am a german dictator for this, you are not allowed to do this). This will be very useful. Going to share my own "method", I now have an excel with 3 tabs (alot more with all kinds of stuff in, but let's focus on the 3). 1 Tabs is for "Trends" and I have 8 columns: Date, Ticker, Thing, useless, useless, R, Result (Win Lose Breakeven), Comment. So actually it is 6 not 8. I used to have over a dozen tabs but I gave up, they're not that useful and they're a pain to maintain. In "Thing" I write the "strategy" I used, for the tab "trends" I got 4 choices: Pullback, Pump (actually it's pullback in a pump), FOMO, Downtrend/UptrendFeeling (when I just go in without a clean rule because I want to). Pullback and Pump are the main ones. So ye, pretty simple. And the specific relevant details I want to note, I note them in Comment. Such as "got stopped at the top and then missed 25R" 😃. Well in that case it might cause some depression so I'm not sure this is the best idea, but you do not want that happening consistently. Important: Log the ones you did not take because you were a terrified little coward, and ended up going like a rocket in your direction. Thank me later. Analyse your past trades You'd better spend time looking at your past trades. I like to screenshot mine, I got a 25 GB HDD allocated to that. I already used up 10 GB but I also have some backtesting ones. Check your average R, winrate, look at comments (maybe put the most important ones in red). You can also on top of this use a broker service some provide analysis data, and also MOAR you can use tradingview where you posted ideas (public or pvt) and see what your thoughts were, and more. If you took some screenshots with your thoughts at the time, go look at this and wonder what was in your mind to take such a stupid trade amirite? Do stats on your operations & backtest to confirm 1 step further: After checking your history, and getting an idea of what you were great at and sucked up. There are 2 reasons you might be good or bad at something: You actually being good or bad at it, and secondly luck. You want to go backtest dozens of cases to check "ok is this typically good or bad", "wow this pattern sure appears often in this situation". And then go even further, as we like to say in France "above it is the sun", you are such a natural born speculator that you take all of your worse trades, and go "ok then, I will do the exact opposite". Revenge trading and fomoing has done so much for me. It made me immensly more profitable (because of so much more opportuinites). I could not believe my eyes at how often I won and how much R I got through revenge trading and fomoing... I did it intelligently thought, not a recommendation to go double down on a lousy trade and risk 10% at once. By revenge trading I hear "taking the opposite side with reasonable size after getting stopped twice". "While cursing". Combat your addiction to stats Ye at that point you'll always need validation from the charts & the stats. Feel down? Go make yourself feel good with some stats. Feel good? Go get a high by looking at some good stats. Worried a trade might not work out? Go spend a few hours on stats to reassure yourself. It can get pretty bad. It can take over. You sometimes might run home in a hurry to get your chart fix. At your job or someone house you will break at the urge and just jump on your phone "just to check that pattern a little bit". Oh wow I just realized I'm not even really joking. Well at least it is a useful addiction, and you do need to have the most information as possible. But know that you cannot know everything, and if you get paralysis from not being 100% sure then... I guess you are a coward and better quit :D Mental health is important, as well as being a winner and wanting to do MOAR WHATEVER IT TAKES TO WIN. This ain't a wagecucking 9 to 5 sit on your *** job. It is one of the most competitive activities in the world and you have to WANT to be the best, to be the best. You don't even care about the money, you just want to crush the competition and you are unhealthy-ly obssessed with it. But just as with lifting, sports at pro level, esports (lol), you do not want to suffer overtraining, burnout (lol what is burnout? Sounds like a loser word), or emm going completely bananas (too late for me :/). With speculative investing, every day is chart day. And news day. And monetary day. And economic lesson day. And... How about rest days? Yes it is important to know when to rest. Know when you'll get plenty of refreshing rest? WHEN YOU DIE. Oh well this paragraph did not turn out how I intended it to. Improve your strats rr or build a new one even In my opinion the easiest best way to improve performance is to improve the risk to reward. Prices bounce on levels a certain % of the time. You cannot change that. You cannot make the trend go further more often. But you can learn what the best areas are, allowing you to slightly improve your stop and enormously your payout. Imagine you have a 0.25% SL, 1% tgt, and you notice the price always goes a little against you and not a single winner gets very close to your stop. You enter slightly later and have a slightly tighter stop, without being over greedy. SL is now 0.20%. You went from a RR of 4 to 5 with the same WR, this is huge! say with your wr you had an average payout per trade of 1.5 (winners*wr - losers*lr), now it is increased to 2.5! you are 2/3 more profitable. It is not that hard and you increase your profit by so much. Do not be worried to give up a bit of winrate if it tremendously will increase your payout. *************************** Emm bonus or something *************************** Constantly accumulate knowledge Every single day. In permanence. The more you know the better you'll be. Not to mistake with being drowned in information. Heard of MOBAS? Over 100 playable character with several different abilities. You cannot know them all at first, but the big nerds that play 10 hours a day end up knowing not only all the abilities, but they also know what all abilities do under other abilities, their effects, the time they take, their mana cost, how the abilities work with different items & builds (these games have magic and physical damage which are different for example, as well as true damage, also magic and armor pen), the interaction with other champions and abilities. It quickly gets overwhelming, there is a huge amount of info, and that's just for 1 video game. If you know LOL you'll have to learn DOTA from scratch, it will go faster that if you were a complete noob, alot of things are similar, but you will have to relearn everything. NOW IMAGINE THE MARKETS THAT ARE SEVERAL ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE MORE COMPLEX WITH MILLIONS OF PARTICIPANTS AND THE WHOLE WORLD INVOLVED MONETARY POLICIES GEOPOLITICS VARIOUS OPINIONS AND AGENDAS AND THE DOZENS OF MARKETS THE THOUSANDS OF STOCKS AND BONDS ALL HAVE SPECIAL INTERACTIONS AND INFLUENCE EACH OTHER AND IF YOU WANT TO HAVE DECENT OPPORTUNITIES YOU NEED A WATCHLIST OF MAYBE AT LEAST 10 GAMES (TICKERS) HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA 💥. You don't have to be smart to do well they say, oh yes of course, memorising and understanding the thousands of patterns, the billions of interactions, the billions of trillions of variables, and DYNAMIC probabilities in a highly complex highly abstract activity with non stop conflicting info, dogmas every one believe in that go against the truth, disinformation, competing with the best in the world, does not require any intelligence at all, sure, makes a lot of sense. Intelligence is far from being sufficient, yes this is very true. It does not mean it is not sufficient lol imagine not being able to tell the difference between necessary and sufficient conditions and trying to give advice to people we found out why these guys sell hopium courses to new traders 🤣 Work on psychological failures Anger is a sign of weakness. Regret is a sign of weakness. Fear is a sign of weakness. And the weak shall fear the strong. Obstacles are designed to make you stronger, only the weak avoid them. And the gods have no obstacles. Jesse Livermore said: "If you cannot sleep because of your stock market position (you are weak), then you have gone too far. Reduce your positions to the sleeping level." Man is oftentimes weak-minded enough to be caught in the snare of greed and heneyed words. Listen to Gandhi, best warrior in India (am I allowed to say this was his caste or is it unwoke? xd), he won a war without fighting. Don't get greedy & keep a rational mind as opposed to trading throught feeling because someone said "the price will collapse" and it scared you. Giving up is not a sign of weakness but a sign of strength. To know that you can't win a particular battle is wisdom. => Very important. Are you a genius like Napoleon that retreated from Russia, or an idiot politician that thinks he knows warfare like Hitler that insisted and led to millions of dead and lost WW2? Do not short Tesla you cannot win (well actually now shorts got wiped out maybe it is possible but I'd wait for a downtrend). Cut your losses what is the point of holding bags? Swag? Don't try to defeat the market and don't get married to any commodity or idea. Fail, lose money, and quit Hey this can happen too. How many is it? 90%? Day traders are overrepresented here. According to fxcm data traders that had a reward equal or greater than 1 times their risk were making money at 53% (over 1 year in 2014-2015), versus traders with a RR under 1 (but why? xd) of which only 17% were profitable. The people that made most money were those the less leverages, while big size "get rich quick" clowns got absolutely wiped out. They do not show data for day traders versus long term ones, they're a broker they make money off commissions so they won't show this UNLESS it shows day traders making more, so you just know they're the ones getting decimated the most and the longer term ones are the ones cleaning house. It is a certainty. I've looked at plenty other data and you had such numbers, with over 1 year 83% people losing money, 88% over 2 years, 94% over 5 years, and so on (it tops logarithmically of course). People smart enough to trade with high (but not greedy huge) reward to risk, and on higher timeframes, are the ones doing best. So it's not all that bad, if you put in the hours and have a working brain (intelligence is important I said but you don't need to be an absolute genius to just be in the green). It's clearly possible. Making money does not mean making millions! It does not even mean outperforming the SnP. It does not even mean outperforming inflation. Few people outperform the SnP. Alot manage to make some money but not enough for it to be a viable business. But even if people end up quitting they did not waste their time, they learned a valuable lesson: Do not try to stand up to MrRenev. Nah I'm just messing around. Even if one does not outperform the SnP, he can use what he learned to: - Continue trading short term for diversification & to reduce portfolio volatility - Not miss out on generational moves (USO, Oil contango, Gold, Bitcoin...) - Use knowledge to manage risk or whatever - Use a fraction of their net worth to speculate with large size (but not casino large) to have more volatility and more returns - And plenty more... consolation prizes
Education
by MrRenev
88
Meet Percy - 'YOUR' new Trading E-Mentor - he's cool......Percy is a great guy... he can be a girl too and you can call him or her whatever you wish. I just chose the name Percy, I think its quirky. :-) BUT .... Percy can help you like he helps me - Let me introduce you to him. He tells me when to enter a trade, when to close a trade, what lot size to use - he helps me stay on track when I feel like closing early (Percy hasn't closed so I shouldn't) he helps me ignore them voices of increasing my risk. Percy works incredibly hard, he has back tested over 4200 trades to help me identify my edge in the market. Percy is simply a legend, I trust him, I have confidence in him and I follow his lead. Get a Percy. Regards Darren
Education
by pow_removetheguesswork
3
Common TradingView Mistakes and Friendly TipsIn this video idea, I share some common mistakes I see people make when looking at and interpreting strategies and indicators on TradingView that may impact their profitability when trading. I also share some helpful tips on how to avoid falling for other people's mistakes by getting sucked into public strategies that seem too good to be true, and also how to use some of the more undervalued features on TradingView to help improve your experience.
OANDA:SPX500USDEducation
by BigBitsIO
5
GBPUSD 1:2 RR - Whats your edge in the market?Hi, I have just recorded this video to demonstrate the effectiveness and ease to find your edge with our strategy. Any funded traders, attacking a challenge - you need to watch this too! A 1:2 RR requires a 33% win rate and above, here you can see 100%+ gains YTD risking just 2% per trade on your account. Simple trade with no bias and no emotion to any specific trade outcome - simply follow the strategy - trading can be mechanical, simple and emotionless. I hope this video helps demonstrate how we trade and how we ensure we have an edge in the markets. Drop us a DM, let us know what you think and if you have any questions. Regards Darren
Education
by pow_removetheguesswork
1
NZDUSD - LEARN DOUBLE SUPPORT BUY TRADE SETUP - 100% WINWe have explained every point of this trade setup on the chart. What factors affect the trade are also explained here. NZDUSD remains in a strong uptrend since April after a big downfall during a pandemic breakout. We have marked three support zones which give us potential buy entry to trade the pair. Currently, price is moving around 0.66300 levels which is a strong support line to target 0.6700 levels but if price pressure ables to break below support zone we can exit the trade immediately as stop-loss hunting setups start.
Education
by DragonCaptain
9
What Is Options Assignment Risk?What is the options assignment risk? Trading options is a very lucrative way to make money in the stock market. Using the same methods that I teach in my trading PowerX Trading Strategy, I was able to turn a 25k account into a 45k account in 2 months! 25K to 45K in 2 months? This sounds too good to be true… and I would like to tell you that it is NOT too good to be true, but there are some inherent risks associated with options trading. ONE of the biggest risks, and possibly the MOST common risk associated with trading options are options assignment risks. As you may know by now, options contracts expire. When you purchase an options contract you have the right to exercise the contract, and buy or sell the underlying asset for the agreed-upon price. If you allow the contract to expire in the money (ITM) you run the risk of being assigned the 100 shares of the underlying stock. This is known as an options assignment risk. Specific Examples of Options With Different Expiration Dates In the example we’re going to discuss today, we’re going to look at how options expiration or the length of time to expiration can affect your options assignment risk. To illustrate the relationship between options assignment risk and options expiration, we’re going to look at trading a 315 call options contract on Apple (AAPL) with 7 days left until expiration. The current strike price of AAPL is 318. This options contract is currently trading for $6 , but only has $3 of intrinsic value. If you were to exercise the option, you would be able to purchase the AAPL stock for $315, and you would capture $3 of profit. If you sell the option, you’ll earn twice that, because the options contract is selling for $6. The difference in the cost of the intrinsic value ($3) of the option and actual value ($6) of the option has to do with time decay. As the option contract gets closer to its expiration date, time decay erodes the value of the options contract. In our next example, we’ll look at trading the same options contract with a $315 strike price, but with 0 days to expiration. As you can see in this image, the same contract with zero days until expiration has only $3 of value. Time decay, otherwise known as theta, has slowly eaten away the value of the contract so that now there is only the intrinsic value of the option left. On a side note: Selling Theta is a very powerful way to make money while trading. I have taught thousands of traders to use Theta, or the time decay of options, to produce income while trading options. Options Expiration As an options contract nears expiration, the risk of options assignment increases exponentially. When an options contract has been purchased, it can usually be sold before expiration to prevent an assignment. However, options contracts that have been sold pose the opposite risk. If you have sold a put contract for example, and the options contract is in the money at expiration, you must either buy back the contract BEFORE expiration, or risk options assignment. In this next example, we will look at selling a put contract on Herts (HTZ) . The current price strike price of HTZ is $2.87. If you were to SELL a $3 put option on HTZ , the option would have the intrinsic value of .13 cents! Meaning if you chose to exercise the option, you would only make .13 cents per share. If we look at this option with 1 week out until expiration we can see that it has more value because time decay has not eroded the value. To Exercise or to Sell, That Is The Question As you can see, there’s WAY more profit when selling a contract vs exercising a contract when there is time to expiration. In summary, it’s very unlikely that someone will exercise an options contract when there is time remaining before expiration. There is usually more profitability when there is less time decay or Theta decay in the contract. When should you worry about options assignment risk? Some traders are under the impression that IF the stock price moves below or above your strike price (depending on whether you sold a put or call) you risk assignment immediately. This is NOT true. You risk assignment the closer your contract gets to expiration.
DJ:DJIEducation
by rockwelltrading
1
Using the Strategy Tester to Evaluate a StrategyThis video idea explains how to use the strategy tester on TradingView to evaluate the performance of your strategy. We go over all of the data presented for you regarding your strategy, and if we make mistakes along the way you can always check out the TradingView help section that is specifically for the Strategy Tester. I highlight the overview of your strategy, dive into the details of the performance summary for your strategy, and show how we can review all of our trades including our commission paid. Finally, we show how changes to the strategy can alter your Strategy Tester results and how accounting for commission(fees) and selective testing windows can alter perceptions on strategies.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by BigBitsIO
23