❌NO RISK OF LOSS=NO CHANCE OF GAIN✅
*️⃣There are several reasons why losses are part of the game:
1️⃣Emotion: Traders, just like all human being, are prone to emotional bias, which can lead to impulsive decision making and ultimately to losses.
2️⃣Probability: Even with the best trading strategy, there will be losing trades. It's important to remember that not all trades will be successful, and losses are a normal part of the process. A successful trader should aim to have more winning trades than losing ones.
3️⃣Markets are unpredictable: Even the most experienced traders can't predict market movements with 100% accuracy. Unforeseen events, such as natural disasters or major political announcements can cause sudden changes in market conditions, leading to losses.
4️⃣Risk is inherent in trading: All forms of investing involve some level of risk. In trading, the risk is even greater due to the fast-paced nature of the markets and the fact that positions are often held for shorter periods of time.
5️⃣There is no Holy grail strategy: There is no one strategy that will work in every market condition and for every trader. Different strategies work better in different market conditions, and a trader should be flexible and adaptable to changing market conditions.
▶️It's important to remember that losses are a normal part of trading, and traders should not be discouraged by them. Instead, traders should focus on managing risk, learning from losses, and continuing to develop and refine their trading strategies over time.
I Hope you guys learned something new today✅
Wish you all Best Of Luck👍
😇And may the odds be always in your favor😇
Do you like this post? Do you want more articles like that
Strategy!
Cash flow statement or Three great riversToday we're going to start taking apart the third and final report that the company publishes each quarter and year - it's Cash flow statement.
Remember, when we studied the balance sheet , we learned that one of the company's assets is cash in accounts. This is a very important asset because if the company doesn't have money in the account, it can't buy raw materials, pay employees' salaries, etc.
What, in general, is a "company" in the eyes of an accountant? These are assets that have been purchased on credit or with equity, for the purpose of earning a net income for its shareholders or investing that income in further growth.
That is, the source of cash in a company's account may be profits . But why do I say "may be"? The point is that it's possible to have a situation where profits are positive on the income statement, but there is no money physically in the account. To make sense of this, let's remember the workshop I use in all the examples. Suppose our master sold all of his boots on credit. That is, he was promised payment, but later. He ended up with a receivable in assets and, most interestingly, generated revenue. The accountant will calculate the revenue for these sales, despite the fact that the shop hasn't actually received the money yet. Then the accountant will deduct the expenses from the revenue, and the result will be a profit. But there is zero money in the account. So what should our master do? The orders are coming in, but there is nothing to pay for the raw materials. In such circumstances, while the master is waiting for the repayment of debts from customers, he himself borrows from the bank to top up his current account with money.
Now let us make his situation more complicated. Let us assume that the money borrowed he still does not have enough, and the bank does not give more. The only thing left is to sell some of his property, that is, some of his assets. Remember, when we took apart the assets of the workshop , the master had shares in an oil company. This is something he could sell without hurting the production process. Then there is enough money in the checking account to produce boots uninterrupted.
Of course, this is a wildly exaggerated example, since more often than not, profits are money, after all, and not the virtual records of an accountant. Nevertheless, I gave this example to make it clear that cash in the account and profit are related, but still different concepts.
So what does the cash flow statement show? Let's engage our imagination again. Imagine a lake with three rivers flowing into it on the left and three rivers flowing out on the right. That is, on one side the lake feeds on water, and on the other side it gives it away. So the asset called "cash" on the balance sheet is the lake. And the amount of cash is the amount of water in that lake. Let's now name the three rivers that feed our lake.
Let's call the first river the operating cash flow . When we receive the money from product sales, the lake is filled with water from the first river.
The second river on the left is called the financial cash flow . This is when we receive financing from outside, or, to put it simply, we borrow. Since this is money received into the company's account, it also fills our lake.
The third river let's call investment cash flow . This is the flow of money we get from the sale of the company's non-current assets. In the example with the master, these were assets in the form of oil company stock. Their sale led to the replenishment of our notional money lake.
So we have a lake of money, which is filled thanks to three flows: operational, financial, and investment. That sounds great, but our lake is not only getting bigger, but it's also getting smaller through the three outgoing flows. I'll tell you about that in my next post. See you soon!
Trading EUR/USD with Moving Averages and Price ActionA simple way to trade EUR/USD is by taking advantage of its tendency to retest the 200-period moving average on the hourly chart. To do this, wait for the currency pair to move away significantly from the 200-period moving average and show signs of overbought or oversold conditions with two peaks or troughs, along with divergence. This presents an opportunity to enter a trade in the direction of the moving average.
To execute this strategy, first, identify the 200-period moving average on the hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair. Next, monitor the price action to look for significant deviations from the moving average with clear signs of overbought or oversold conditions. This may include the formation of two peaks or troughs with divergence in the price action.
Once you have identified these conditions, consider entering a trade in the direction of the moving average. For instance, if the price is significantly above the moving average and shows signs of overbought conditions, consider entering a short trade. On the other hand, if the price is significantly below the moving average and shows signs of oversold conditions, consider entering a long trade.
In summary, this strategy involves identifying overbought or oversold conditions in the EUR/USD pair, along with divergence and two peaks or troughs, as it moves away from the 200-period moving average. This can help you identify trading opportunities in the direction of the moving average.
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My precious-s-s-s EPSIn the previous post , we began looking at the Income statement that the company publishes for each quarter and year. The report contains important information about different types of profits : gross profit, operating income, pretax income, and net income. Net income can serve both as a source of further investment in the business and as a source of dividend payments to shareholders (of course, if a majority of shareholders vote to pay dividends).
Now let's break down the types of stock on which dividends can be paid. There are only two: preferred stock and common stock . We know from my earlier post that a stock gives you the right to vote at a general meeting of shareholders, the right to receive dividends if the majority voted for them, and the right to part of the bankrupt company's assets if something is left after paying all debts to creditors.
So, this is all about common stock. But sometimes a company, along with its common stock, also issues so-called preferred stock.
What advantages do they have over common stock?
- They give priority rights to receive dividends. That is, if shareholders have decided to pay dividends, the owners of preferred shares must receive dividends, but the owners of common shares may be deprived because of the same decision of the shareholders.
- The company may provide for a fixed amount of dividend on preferred shares. That is, if the decision was made to pay a dividend, preferred stockholders will receive the fixed dividend that the company established when it issued the shares.
- If the company goes bankrupt, the assets that remain after the debts are paid are distributed to the preferred shareholders first, and then to the common shareholders.
In exchange for these privileges, the owners of such shares do not have the right to vote at the general meeting of shareholders. It should be said that preferred shares are not often issued, but they do exist in some companies. The specific rights of shareholders of preferred shares are prescribed in the founding documents of the company.
Now back to the income statement. Earlier we looked at the concept of net income. Since most investments are made in common stock, it would be useful to know what net income would remain if dividends were paid on preferred stock (I remind you: this depends on the decision of the majority of common stockholders). To do this, the income statement has the following line item:
- Net income available to common stockholders (Net income available to common stockholders = Net income - Dividends on preferred stock)
When it is calculated, the amount of dividends on preferred stock is subtracted from net income. This is the profit that can be used to pay dividends on common stock. However, shareholders may decide not to pay dividends and use the profits to further develop and grow the company. If they do so, they are acting as true investors.
I recall the investing formula from my earlier post : give something now to get more in the future . And so it is here. Instead of deciding to spend profits on dividends now, shareholders may decide to invest profits in the business and get more dividends in the future.
Earnings per share or EPS is used to understand how much net income there is per share. EPS is calculated very simply. As you can guess, all you have to do is divide the net income for the common stock by its number:
- EPS ( Earnings per share = Net income for common stock / Number of common shares issued).
There is an even more accurate measure that I use in my analysis, which is EPS Diluted or Diluted earnings per share :
- EPS Diluted ( Diluted earnings per share = Net income for common stock / (Number of common shares issued + Issuer stock options, etc.)).
What does "diluted" earnings mean, and when does it occur?
For example, to incentivize management to work efficiently, company executives may be offered bonuses not in monetary terms, but in shares that the company will issue in the future. In such a case, the staff would be interested in the stock price increase and would put more effort into achieving profit growth. These additional issues are called Employee stock options (or ESO ). Because the amount of these stock bonuses is known in advance, we can calculate diluted earnings per share. To do so, we divide the profit not by the current number of common shares already issued, but by the current number plus possible additional issues. Thus, this indicator shows a more accurate earnings-per-share figure, taking into account all dilutive factors.
The value of EPS or EPS Diluted is so significant for investors that if it does not meet their expectations or, on the contrary, exceeds them, the market may experience significant fluctuations in the share price. Therefore, it is always important to keep an eye on the EPS value.
In TradingView the EPS indicator as well as its forecasted value can be seen by clicking on the E button next to the timeline.
We will continue to discuss this topic in the next publication. See you soon!
How to run your Strategy for automated cryptocurrency tradingTo run TradingView Strategy for real automatic trading at any Cryptocurrency you need:
1. Account at TradingView. (Tradingview.com)
And it can’t be a free “Basic” plan.
You must have any of available Paid packages (Pro, Pro+ or Premium).
Because for automatic trading you need the “Webhook notifications” feature, which is not available in the “Basic” plan.
2. Account at your favorite big Crypto Exchange.
You have to sign up with crypto exchange, and usually pass their verification ("KYC").
Not all exchanges are supported.
But you can use most big "CEX" on the market.
I recommend Binance (with lowest fees), Bybit, OKX, Gate.io, Bitget and some others.
3. Account at special “crypto-trading bot platforms”.
Unfortunately you can’t directly send trade orders from TradingView to Crypto Exchange.
You need an online platform which accepts Alert Notifications from TradingView and then – this platform
will generate pre-programmed trade orders and will send them to a supported Crypto Exchange via API.
There are few such crypto bot platforms which we can use.
I personally have tested 3 of them.
It’s "3commas", "Veles" and "RevenueBot".
All of them have almost the same main function – they allow you to make and run automated DCA crypto bots.
They have little different lists of supported Exchanges, different lists of additional options and features.
But all of them have main feature – they can accept Alert Notifications from TradingView!
3commas is more expensive.
RevenueBot and Veles – have the same low price – they take 20% from your trade Profit, but no more than $50 per month!
So you can easily test them without big expenses.
4. Combine everything into One Automatic System!
Once you have all accounts registered and ready – you can set up all into one system.
You have to:
1. Create on your Crypto Exchange – "API" key which will allow auto trading.
2. Create on the bot platform (3commas, RevenueBot, Veles) – new bot, with pre-programmed trading parameters. (token name, sum,
long/short, stop-loss, take-profit, amount of orders etc)
3. On TradingView configure (optimise) parameters of the strategy you want to use for trading.
4. Once it’s done and backtests show good results – you should create “Alert” on the strategy page.
You have to point this alert to “webhook url” provided to you by the crypto-bot platform (and also enter the needed “message” of the alert).
For each of the bot platforms, you can find the details on how to set them up on their official sites.
If you do not understand it and need help, please contact me.
Strategy Coding E03: Implementing a "Signal Based" StrategyPineScript allows you to define a single custom source value for an input to another indicator or strategy.
Here we will demonstrate how you can have a very simple strategy that attempts to respond to that signal. The simplest way to do this is that he signal (indicator) emits the number of desired shares.
The income statement: the place where profit livesToday we are going to look at the second of the three main reports that a company publishes during the earnings season, the income statement. Just like the balance sheet, it is published every quarter and year. This is how we can find out how much a company earns and how much it spends. The difference between revenues and expenses is called profit . I would like to highlight this term "profit" again, because there is a very strong correlation between the dynamics of the stock price and the profitability of the company.
Let's take a look at the stock price charts of companies that are profitable and those that are unprofitable.
3 charts of unprofitable companies :
3 charts of profitable companies :
As we can see, stocks of unprofitable companies have a hard enough time growing, while profitable companies, on the contrary, are getting fundamental support to grow their stocks. We know from the previous post that a company's Equity grows due to Retained Earnings. And if Equity grows, so do Assets. Recall: Assets are equal to the sum of a company's Equity and Liabilities. Thus, growing Assets, like a winch attached to a strong tree, pull our machine (= stock price) higher and higher. This is, of course, a simplified example, but it still helps to realize that a company's financial performance directly affects its value.
Now let's look at how earnings are calculated in the income statement. The general principle is this: if we subtract all expenses from revenue, we get profit . Revenue is calculated quite simply - it is the sum of all goods and services sold over a period (a quarter or a year). But expenses are different, so in the income statement we will see one item called "Total revenue" and many items of expenses. These expenses are deducted from revenue gradually (top-down). That is, we don't add up all the expenses and then subtract the total expenses from the revenue - no. We deduct each expense item individually. So at each step of this subtraction, we get different kinds of profit : gross profit, operating income, pretax income, net income. So let's look at the report itself.
- Total revenue
This is, as we've already determined, the sum of all goods and services sold for the period. Or you could put it another way: this is all the money the company received from sales over a period of time. Let me say right off the bat that all of the numbers in this report are counted for a specific period. In the quarterly report, the period, respectively, is 1 quarter, and in the annual report, it is 1 year.
Remember my comparison of the balance sheet with the photo ? When we analyze the balance sheet, we see a photo (data snapshot) on the last day of the reporting period, but not so in the income statement. There we see the accumulated amounts for a specific period (i.e. from the beginning of the reporting quarter to the end of that quarter or from the beginning of the reporting year to the end of that year).
- Cost of goods sold
Since materials and other components are used to make products, accountants calculate the amount of costs directly related to the production of products and place them in this item. For example, the cost of raw materials for making shoes would fall into this item, but the cost of salaries for the accountant who works for that company would not. You could say that these costs are costs that are directly related to the quantity of goods produced.
- Gross profit (Gross profit = Total revenue - Cost of goods sold)
If we subtract the cost of goods sold from the total revenue, we get gross profit.
- Operating expenses (Operating expenses are costs that are not part of the cost of production)
Operating expenses include fixed costs that have little or no relation to the amount of output. These may include rental payments, staff salaries, office support costs, advertising costs, and so on.
- Operating income (Operating income = Gross profit - Operating expenses)
If we subtract operating expenses from gross profit, we get operating income. Or you can calculate it this way: Operating income = Total revenue - Cost of goods sold - Operating expenses.
- Non-operating income (this item includes all income and expenses that are not related to regular business operations)
It is interesting, that despite its name, non-operating income and operating income can have negative values. For this to happen, it is sufficient that the corresponding expenses exceed the income. This is a clear demonstration of how businessmen revere profit and income, but avoid the word "loss" in every possible way. Apparently, a negative operating income sounds better. Below is a look at two popular components of non-operating income.
- Interest expense
This is the interest the company pays on loans.
- Unusual income/expense
This item includes unusual income minus unusual expenses. "Unusual" means not repeated in the course of regular activities. Let's say you put up a statue of the company's founder - that's an unusual expense. And if it was already there, and it was sold, that's unusual income.
- Pretax income (Pretax income = Operating income + Non-operating income)
If we add or subtract (depending on whether it is negative or positive) non-operating income to operating income, we get pretax income.
- Income tax
Income tax reduces our profit by the tax rate.
- Net income (Net income = Pretax income - Income tax)
Here we get to the income from which expenses are no longer deducted. That is why it is called "net". It is the bottom line of any company's performance over a period. Net income can be positive or negative. If it's positive, it's good news for investors, because it can go either to pay dividends or to further develop the company and increase profits.
This concludes part one of my series of posts on the Income statement. In the next parts, we'll break down how net income is distributed to holders of different types of stock: preferred and common. See you soon!
Strategy Coding E02: Primer: TradingView vs Real WorldCoding a strategy that will work in the real world isn't easy, and we should have our expectations set accordingly.
In this video we will cover:
Human trade execution.
PineScript Shortcomings.
What is an "Ideal Strategy"?
Back-testing.
Alerts aren't always tradable events.
Please leave any questions in the comment section.
At the beginning was the EquityWith this post, I am concluding the analysis of the company's balance sheet. You can read the previous parts here:
Part 1 - Balance sheet: taking the first steps
Part 2 - Assets I prioritize
Part 3 - A sense of debt
Now we know that every company has assets on one side of the balance sheet and liabilities and equity on the other side. If you add liabilities and equity together you get the sum of assets. And vice versa, if you subtract all of the company's liabilities from the assets, you get what? That's right, you get Equity . Let's discuss this important component of the balance sheet.
When a company is first established, it must have initial equity. This is the money with which any business starts. It is used for the first expenses of the new company. In the case of our workshop , the equity was the master's savings, with which he bought the garage, equipment, raw materials and other assets to start his business. As sales progressed, the workshop received the revenue and reimbursed expenses. Whatever was left over was used to boost the company's profit. So, our master invested his capital in the business to increase it through profits.
Making a profit is the main purpose for which the company's assets work, loans are raised, and equity is invested.
Let's see which balance sheet items are in the Equity group:
- Common stock (The sum of nominal values of common stock issued). Remember, when our master decided to turn his company into a stock company , he issued 1 million shares at a price of $1,000 per share. So $1,000 per share is the par value of the stock. And the sum of the nominal values of the stocks issued would be $1 billion.
- Retained earnings . It is clear from the name of this item that it contains profits that have not been distributed. We will find out where it can be allocated in the next post, when we start analyzing the income statement.
- Accumulated other comprehensive income (Profit or loss on open investments). The profit or loss of a company can be not only from its core business, but also, for example, from the rise or fall in the value of other companies' shares that it bought. In our example, the workshop has oil company shares. The financial result from the revaluation of these shares is recorded in this item.
So, the equity is necessary for the company to invest it in the business and make a profit. Then the retained earnings themselves become equity, which is reinvested to make even more profits. It's a continuous cycle of the company's life that bets on equity growth.
Which balance sheet items are of interest to me in the Equity group? Of course, I am interested in the profit-related items: retained earnings and profit or loss on open investments. The sum of nominal share values is a static indicator, so it can hardly tell us anything.
However, it is better to use information from the income statement rather than the balance sheet to analyze earnings, because only this report allows us to see the entire structure of a company's income and expenses.
So we conclude the general analysis of a company's balance sheet. To fully understand why it is needed, let's engage our imagination once again. Do you remember the example with the hotel ? We imagined that a joint stock company is a hotel with identical rooms, where you, as an investor, can buy a certain number of rooms (one room = one share). Think about what you would want to look at first before buying? Personally, I'd rather see photos of the rooms.
So, the balance sheet can be compared to such photos that we get from the hotel at quarterly and annual intervals. Of course, in such a case, the hotel will try to use special effects as much as possible in order to improve investors' impression of the photos released. However, if we track and compare photos over multiple periods, we can still understand: is our hotel evolving, or have we been watching the same couch in a standard room for 10 years in a row.
We can say that the balance sheet is a "photo" of the company's assets, debts and equity at the balance sheet date. And the balance sheet items I've chosen are what I look at first in this photo.
In the next series of posts, we will break down an equally important report, the income statement, and explore the essence of earnings. See you soon!
Strategy Coding E01: Adding a custom Trailing-StopIn my experience there are phases to creating a strategy. In this episode we will cover one of the most important steps: establishing an exit strategy. Exiting a position is crucial to risk management. If your entries are terrible but you have a good exit strategy, you might get by and not lose a lot of your capital. And vice-versa, if your entries are great, but your exit strategy is terrible, you my not make any profit.
Concepts we will cover in this episode:
Integrating an indicator value as a trailing stop.
Lowering the trailing stop sensitivity by using the Average True Range (ATR).
Customizing the ATR value.
Brief introduction to 'modules'.
Pure trendline breakout strategy; Manticore Investems
Pure trendline break strategy is based on indicators:
Tradelines with Breaks (FREE) - TwB
Position entry signals, trendline breakout. We look for signals on the ~h4 interval.
We take a position on lower intervals when we see entry signals there as well.
Order block Detector (FREE) - ObD
Generates us support and resistance for the price (red - sell, green - buy)
Pivot Based Trailing Maxima & Minima (FREE) - Pbt
Helps determine the current trend of the market on a given interval, serves as an add-on
informing us about market trends. In the green zone - buy, red - sell.
SuperOSC (FREE) - sOSC
Informs us about the strength of the market at a given moment (on a specific candle)
In addition:
LuxAlgo Price Action Concept (PREMIUM).
Strategy description:
Basically we trade after large signals generated on h4/d1 intervals.
When we take a position we look for the optimal place to enter from m15-h1.
We use resistances and supports as SL/TPs.
Trading style: scalping / daytrading.
Ideal entry setup:
1) Signal generated on the h4/d1 TwB interval.
2) ObD secure our position / ObD do not interfere with a potential sell or buy
3) The trend set by Pbt agrees with the direction we are playing. (Green zone - buy / Red zone - sell).
4) The candle after which we enter is not drawn on the sOSC
Examples below:
H4 interval buy signal:
1) Pbt - Green buy zone
2) TwB - upward signal
3) sOSC - the candle that generated the buy signal did not cross the dashed lines
When we take a position we go down to lower intervals to best estimate SL:TP
H1 interval:
H1 interval buy signal:
1) Pbt - Green buy zone
2) TwB - upward signal
3) sOSC - the candle that generated the buy signal did not cross the dashed lines
Estimation of risk and timing of exit:
Risk estimation:
1) We use ObD to determine the optimal risk, they serve as resistance to the price.
2) We set positions below the buy / sell zones from Pbt
3) We go to lower intervals, set SL under the TwB level of the opposite trendline
Determining take profit:
1) We play out positions to supports or resistances generated by ObD
2) We close the position when we see that after the close of the h4/h1 candle the sOSC is drawn above or below the dashed line
3) We can close positions when we see that the movement is losing strength and there are opposition signals to our position on low intervals.
It works best to close positions after reaching ObD supports/resistances in conjunction with a drawn-out sOSC.
LuxAlgo Price Action Concept indicator (PREMIUM), serves as an aid in determining the strength of a given support or resistance (the higher the %, the stronger the resistance)
Sniper & Strategy Update with Sine Version 5 by TradcityproSniperTrading permite detectar los momentos exactos de compra y venta obteniendo un buen rendimiento.
Como aplicarlo:
* Realice una compra cuando el indicador de COMPRA aparezca en la pantalla.
* Realice una venta cuando el indicador de VENTA aparezca en la pantalla.
More Info:
www.youtube.com
Trading Strategy. Basic principlesThe following clearly outlines my trading strategy, every day I seek out deals based solely on this strategy.
Without regular backtesting (trade by trade), the results of trading are random and uncertain. The cumulative outcome of the R-multipliers should be positive, but, if a routine backtest is conducted (after executing numerous trades based on sequential trading processes that offer us an edge) The primary focus of our trading strategy is the risk-to-reward ratio (RR), where a large number of losses can be offset by a single profitable trade.
- Entry requirements are sufficient to prevent market noise.
- Position sizing ensures we have a consistent (fixed) risk every transaction, and we adhere to this algorithm on each and every trade.
- Maintaining the advantage afforded by our trading method requires mental preparation for the fluctuations that will effect our account balance. Short-term losses should have no psychological impact!
Entry Standards:
We join the market based on key supply and demand sectors that play a significant impact in the structure of the market. We identify them by emphasizing the M15, H4 points of interest responsible for the structure's collapse.
Once the price reaches our point of interest, we will watch for a reaction in this area, which will indicate if the price intends to move higher or lower. The objective is to identify where a substantial position was taken and wait for the price to return to that point in order to reduce the repercussions and ensure the price follows its actual intentions.
Countertrend:
- Monitor price action and reaction points closely.
- Do not be greedy; if required, close such deals sooner, but not before 3R; bring the trade to the following supply/demand zone.
- Keep a close eye on price movement and response points when entering a trend.
- Enter a trade based on the candle that triggered the CHoCh, move it to the next high/low level, and partially close if momentum appears to be waning.
- There is no need to move the SL aggressively; instead, let the price to fluctuate and move the entry to break even only after the initial LH/HL is created.
4H Definition of Market structure
Determine the price's response to important zones on a daily/weekly basis.
How should I mark the chart?
4H
- swing highs and lows
- B.O.S
- Supply and Demand zones
- Liquidity H/L, EQH/EQL, internal liquidity trend
- Orderflow structure HL - HH or LH - LL
15M
How should I mark the chart?
- fluctuate between highs and lows
- ChoCh/BOS
- Demand/supply zones
- Liquidity, liquidity zones/points, strong/weak H/L, liquidity before poi
- Premium/Discount - short discount and long premium.
- Order flow
1-5M
How should I mark the chart?
- Liquidity grab (sweep)
- Mitigation/RTO
- S/D flip
How to become a trader? (Part 1)How to become a trader? (Part 1)
1. What is trading?
We all know what trading is. Almost all of us had someone around us who was trading, or maybe we heard the names of people like Warren Buffett or Elon Musk. But what we don't know is that trading is not just opening a chart and drawing a line and finally buying a stock or something. Trust me, It is more complicated than that.
In this market, for 95% of people, there will be nothing but financial loss. But those 5% are the ones who get the secret of trading. You probably won't recognize those 5%, and they won't want to introduce themselves either. But if you persevere and put in enough effort and a lot of time, and then you go through more persistence and difficulty and loss of capital and disappointment, it is possible, just possible, that you will become one of those 5%.
Come with me to find out what we should do.
2. Where do we start?
An important question will arise for all people who are new to trading. "Where to start?"
In the first few days, you will see a lot of stuff. And for sure, you will be confused like me. There are many things to learn. YouTube, books, even private training. But what do you get in the end? Well, you find a trading method and trade with it for some time. Then you start losing money. Then you go to another method and you lose again. And this cycle continues like this (this is the first hard part that I mentioned above). Later, you will learn about capital management and the psychology of trading. And by combining these three things and, of course, enough time, you will move towards becoming a trader. Therefore, becoming a trader is not something that can be achieved overnight and more importantly, it is not something that can be given to you. You have to achive it.
3. Strategy
The first place you should start is formulating a strategy. Some people think that everything boils down to strategy. So when they can't make money, they try to find a more sophisticated strategy. But this is wrong. Strategy is just the beginning. I will talk more about this later. But before that, let's talk about the components of strategy.
We can divide each strategy into 5 parts: Trend, Area of Value (AOV), Trigger, Stop loss (SL) and Target point (TP).
A. Trend: The first and most important part. Trend means the next move will be up or down. Your tool to find the trend can be your eyes, trend line and different indicators. The most important thing to learn here is that no one knows which way the price will move. All we know and get through our tools is which direction the price is "more probable". The second point is that the trend is not about the past movement, but it's representative of the next movement! So don't mix them up.
B. Area of Value (AOV): Let's assume that the price of a stock is going to increase, and in other words, it wants to find an up trend. Where will your entry area be? There are useful tools such as trend line, moving, Fibonacci, candlestick, support and resistance areas and etc. for this.
C. Trigger: You will need a confirmation to enter when the price is in the value zone. I recommend you to use multi-time frame and look for entry in lower time-frames. The tools are the same as before.
D. Stop loss: Your entire strategy depends on this component. Most people do not use the limit because they do not know how to use it. And they are also afraid of losing. The best traders also make mistakes and control their mistakes by limiting their losses. The limit of loss is your friend. Learn how to make the most of it.
E. Target point: We humans have a good tolerance in the face of difficulties. But can we stop ourselves from seeing profit? The second stage is difficulty, patience and tolerance to achieve your desired profit. At the same time, knowing that the conditions may change, and you may not even get the profit you have now.
There are more complex strategies that combine all of the above. Like Elliot, Ichimoku and etc.
The important thing about the strategy is that a super complex strategy is not necessarily better than a simple strategy. Sometimes a simple trend line can give you a profit that dozens of complicated indicators cannot give you. I am not saying that complexity is worse. In fact, the more complicated it is, the more accurate your position and understanding of the subject will be. But the problem is that our mind does not have the ability to analyze all the possibilities. That's why, don't look for a super-complicated method produced by company X. Choose the simplest method that works for you, and you can communicate with it more easily.
Each of those 5% people choose a method and become a master in it. So it doesn't matter what the method is. It is important that it is profitable. It matters how you implement it.
In the next part, I will talk about capital management and market psychology.
Good luck.
How to auto-execute TradingView alerts on exchangeIf you have your own strategy in TradingView, you can set up opening trades on the exchange in a couple of clicks.
Next, you’ll see an example of how we set up alerts in 5 minutes, and how orders were opened and closed on the exchange. To do this, we will create alerts and a bot for alerts on our platform.
Step 1. Set the alert parameters.
Go to our terminal, select the Algotrading section → Trading Robots → Add strategy button.
You will see an interface for creating and customizing your bot, where you need to perform the Basic settings and proceed to setting the parameters for sending signals to the system.
To do this, go to the Sending signals block.
The TradingView signal source is already selected.
Copy the Request URL.
On the right side of the window, we see the code with the request parameters. You can add other parameters with checkboxes, we have added Stop Loss and Take Profit. Copy and save the code.
Step 2. Launch the bot.
Next, find the created bot in the All robots section and launch it in Work trading mode according to the manuals in the terminal.
Step 3. Set up an alert in TradingView.
Go to TradingView, open the Alerts section and set up an alert, for example, for opening an order (Buy) based on a simple indicator - in our case, Crossing.
Paste the code that we got in Step 1 in the Message field.
Paste the request URL we got in Step 1 in the Webhook URL field and Save.
The alert has been successfully created and is active on TradingView in the Alerts section.
Step 4. Monitor the orders.
The alert triggers and ... Go to the Alerts log, where we see a notification about executed alerts from TradingView.
We can check in the bot on our platform, open the Trades tab - we see open orders.
And we see that alert orders are open on the exchange.
Since we set Stop Loss and Take Profit, the orders were not only opened, but also closed. In the platform we can find deals, on the exchange we can find orders with the Sell parameter.
We hope that now trading with TradingView will become even easier. We will release new and more detailed articles for you on using webhooks so that the strategy created here works 24/7 without your participation.
A sense of debtIn the previous two posts, we explored how assets are grouped in a company's balance sheet.
Part 1: Balance sheet: taking the first steps
Part 2: Assets I prioritize
Now let's deal with Liabilities and Stockholders' equity. Let me remind you that these are the sources of funds that give a company assets. And indeed, with what funds can a company have assets? Either with its own funds (stockholders' equity), or with funds borrowed (liabilities). For simplicity, we will call them Debts and Equity.
Debts can vary in maturity, so we've divided them into two categories in the balance sheet: Current liabilities and Non-current liabilities .
Current liabilities include:
- Current debts are debts that need to be paid back within a year after they are incurred. Do you remember our master took a loan from the bank to make a large batch of boots? That loan will be recorded in this item (assuming the loan is up to one year in repayment).
- Accounts payable (debts to suppliers of goods and services). You can borrow money not only from the bank, but also from your suppliers, for example. In other words he is giving you raw materials now, but is ready to accept payment later. Such debts are reflected in this item.
- Accrued liabilities (Provisions for future expenses on unpaid bills in the form of wages, rent, taxes). The word "debt" is in many ways synonymous with the word "liability." A company may have many such liabilities: payment of wages, rent and taxes. In essence, these are also debts to be paid during the year. For convenience, cash reserves are set aside for them. They are spent at the moment when the payment is due. Such reserves are recorded in this item.
- Other current liabilities . Debts or liabilities with a maturity of up to one year that are not included in the categories above are shown here.
Non-current liabilities include:
- Long term debt - these are debts that need to be paid back more than one year after they are incurred. If our master had borrowed from the bank for two years, such a loan would fall into this category.
- Deferred taxes liabilities (Provision for taxes to be paid in a future period). Tax rates are subject to change, and new taxes may come into effect in a year or more. But even now, the company can set aside money for future taxes.
- Other long term liabilities . Here are debts or liabilities with a maturity of more than one year that are not included in the categories above.
In short, debts are loans taken by the company, provisions for tax liabilities, and debts to suppliers.
The amount of debt is a very important indicator in the fundamental analysis of a company. On the one hand, the mere presence of debt is not scary, because it demonstrates that banks trust the company and give it loans for development. On the other hand, a substantial amount of debt can cause serious problems and losses in the period of weak sales of goods or services. Banks are unlikely to suspend interest charges on loans if a company is doing poorly. This means the company will incur expenses in the form of interest on loans that are not offset by revenue. Also a reminder that if a company goes bankrupt, the owners of the stock get the assets of that company only after all debts have been settled . If the debts are so large that they exceed the value of all the property, the shareholders get nothing. For these reasons, I select companies with small debt loads.
What liabilities do I focus on?
- Current debt;
- Accounts payable;
- Long term debt.
For me, these are the items that most clearly reflect the company's debt situation.
In the next post, we will conclude our study of the balance sheet and look at the basic source of assets, which is Equity. See you soon!
Assets I prioritizeIn the previous post Balance sheet: taking the first steps , we began parsing the balance sheet of the imaginary workshop and focused on assets. Today, I suggest looking at what types of tangible and intangible property are classified as current assets and what types are classified as non-current assets.
Current assets contain the following items:
- Cash and cash equivalents - in our case we can include a safe with money, which, in general, corresponds to the company's cash in its current bank accounts.
- Net receivables - here we would include the IOU from a friend. That is everything that clients owe the company for goods or services.
- Inventory - this includes a bag with leather, rubber and thread. That is all raw materials, from which goods are made, as well as stocks of finished goods in warehouses.
- Other current assets - this can include other current assets that do not belong to the previous items.
Non-current assets include the following items:
- Net property, plant and equipment - we include a garage, table, chair, sewing machine and tools. Depreciation is deducted from the original cost of the property when reporting it. Depreciation is the cost to repair and renew the property.
- Equity and other investments - in our example, this would include oil company stocks (and in general, any company investment in stocks or bonds of other companies).
- Goodwill - let's say our company wants to buy another company and is willing to pay $11 million for it. The assets of the other company are $10 million, and the debts that our company will have to pay for the other company are $2 million. So the assets net of debt are $8 million. After the purchase, the assets and debts of that company will become the assets and debts of our company. So, the difference between the purchase amount of $11 million and the net assets of $8 million is a goodwill equal to $3 million. For our workshop, this item is not relevant, as it didn't buy any company. Nevertheless, remember that goodwill is the difference between the purchase price of another company and its net assets.
- Intangible assets - this can include the value of the customer base in the master's phone book, as well as any other assets that have no tangible basis (such as purchased trademarks).
- Other long term assets - this item includes other non-current assets that don't belong to the previous items.
Once we understand which asset belongs to which item, its value (or rather, the sum of the values of all assets belonging to this item) is written in the balance sheet. For example, let's say we've determined that the Inventory item includes leather, rubber, and thread. The accountant adds up the value of the leather, rubber, and thread and writes the total amount in monetary terms against the Inventory item. This is how the numbers appear in the balance sheet.
Now let's discuss which balance sheet items we should pay attention to during the fundamental analysis of assets. I have formulated the following rule for myself: pay attention to the assets that are directly related to the sale of the company's goods or services .
If a company does not sell its goods or services well, its bank account balance will shrink, huge inventories of unsold goods and raw materials will accumulate in its warehouses, and accounts receivable (customers debt) will grow. The fact is that when sales are bad, the company is ready to lend out goods as debt.
If sales are going well, then, on the contrary, the money in the account will grow, and accounts receivable and inventory will start to shrink. All other assets can influence sales only indirectly, so I don't consider them.
Thus, I have identified my priority assets :
- Cash and cash equivalents;
- Net receivables;
- Inventory.
As you can see, they are all quick current assets. Non-current assets only indirectly affect sales, so they are not a priority benchmark for me.
In the next post, we'll start looking at the right side of our disclosed book, called the Balance sheet. That's where the company's liabilities and equity belong. See you next time!
Donchian Channel Indicator: The Complete A Trader's GuideChannel forex trading strategies are very popular among traders. This fact is because the channel within which the quotes move is regularly formed on any instrument, any time frame, and can be used in a variety of ways (breakout strategy, rebound strategy, etc.) as a ready-made trading tactic.
There are Linear Progression Channels, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci Channels, Envelopes, Ichimoku Channels, and Donchian Channel, which is created based on the Donchian Channel Indicator. It will become the main character of our today`s article. Let us consider in more detail the principle of its use and the rules for placing orders.
The Donchian Channel Indicator: Description And Main Signals
Richard Donchian is one of the legendary traders of the last century. He was the originator of the Turtles trading system. As it often happens, the peak of his popularity and success came to him late, at a respectable age. Donchian was a true workaholic, giving much energy to trading and creating effective trading theories. His works were used by a lot of traders, some of which were included in the top ten of the best market professionals, for example, Linda Raschke.
Initially, the Donchian Channel was developed for trading by breakout strategies when the price goes out of the channel and crosses one of its borders. As a rule, a new powerful trend starts at such moments.
What Does The Donchian Price Channel Look Like?
The algorithm looks like two curves, one of which corresponds to the upper limit of the corridor and the other - to the lower one. The upper curve shows the price maximums for the selected time period. The lower boundary shows the levels of price lows, also for a certain period of time. When price minimums/maximums are updated, the lines are rearranged and the channel width decreases or increases depending on the market situation. Another broken dotted line runs in the center of the channel.
The price position relative to this line shows the market trend:
When the price breaks out of the middle line of the channel from the bottom up and rises higher, it indicates the bulls' advantage in the market. Price is trending upwards.
When the price crosses the middle line of the channel from top to bottom and goes lower, it indicates a bearish advantage in the market. The price goes downward.
The Donchian Channel is also called a volatility indicator because it uses chart extrema in its calculations. The tool looks a bit like Bollinger Waves, but its lines are smoother and do not react as strongly to price changes as Bollinger Bands lines.
Channel Boundaries Signals
According to the indicator, trades can be opened at the moments of a breakout as well as a rebound from the channel borders.
Signals arising when price breaks out a channel edge are called trend signals:
If the price breaks out the upper level of the Donchian Channel from the bottom up and the breakout candle closes above it, this is a buy signal. An uptrend begins;
If the price crosses the lower level of the Donchian Channel from above downwards and the breakout candlestick is closed under it, this is a sell signal. The downtrend begins.
The breakout can be not only a true breakout when the boundary is crossed by the candle's body and the candle closes outside the range but also a shadow one.
It can be called a shadow breakout, which was made by the candlestick's shadow, but the candlestick itself closed inside the Donchian Channel.
The shadow breakout occurs before the price reverses after the rebound from the channel's boundary:
If the shadow of the candlestick breaks out the lower boundary, and then the price returns to the channel and closes inside it, this is a signal of an upward reversal. You can place a buy order;
If the shadow of the candlestick crosses the upper boundary, and then the price goes back inside the channel and closes there, this is a signal of a downward reversal. You may enter into a sell trade.
A shadow breakout usually indicates a price reversal from the broken-out boundary.
Price may not only break out the channel boundary but also rebound from it. In this case, the price moves inside the channel, and then, having touched one of its boundaries reverses in the other direction.
Signals when the price rebounds from the Donchian Channel boundaries:
If the price rebounds from the upper boundary of the channel, this is a sell signal;
If the price rebounds from the lower boundary of the channel, this is a signal to buy.
Changing the channel width also indicates a change in the market situation. For example, if the Donchian Channel becomes narrow, it indicates a flat. The market is calm at the moment, the volatility is low. When the price extremums are updated, the channel starts expanding, indicating the increase in market volatility:
If the channel expands as a result of updating price lows, you can open a sell trade;
If the channel expands as a result of updating price highs, you can open a buy trade.
Even though the Donchian Channel is quite an effective tool, it is not recommended to open positions only by its signals. It is necessary to use additional tools for signal confirmation.
Calculation Of The Donchian Channel Indicator
To plot the Donchian Channel, we should use the absolute minimum and maximum of the quote for the definite period. The upper boundary of the channel is drawn through the specified maximum, and the lower – through the minimum for the same period.
In the time period, only the number of candlesticks is always considered. For example, period 10 for the D1 chart is equal to 10 days, for the H1 chart – to 10 hours, and for the M5 – to 50 minutes.
In other words, a breakout of a 10-day channel on the D1 chart means that the 10-day maximum is broken out when the upper boundary of the channel is broken out, or the 10-day minimum when the lower boundary of the channel is broken out. In other words, the upper boundary is equal to the maximum value of the quote for the selected period, the lower boundary – to the minimum value, and the average boundary is equal to the sum of the upper and lower bounds divided by 2.
Donchian himself used the value of the channel period 20 for daily charts because it equals the average number of working days in a month. But we can experiment with the period value, considering that we can trade in any time frame. The most popular and well-proven variants are 18, 24, and 55.
Donchian Channel + RSI Trading Strategy
Let's consider an example of a simple trading strategy based on the Donchian Channel and RSI oscillator signals.
Chart time frame – H1. Currency pair – any currency pair with average or high volatility.
Positions may be opened on the rebound of the price from the boundaries of the Donchian Channel. The RSI indicator will confirm the rebound signal, coming out of the oversold or overbought area.
A long position may be entered under the following conditions:
The price reaches the lower boundary of the Donchian Channel, fails to break it out, and turns in the opposite direction. Either there was a shadow breakout and the price returned to the channel limits.
RSI exits the oversold area, breaking out the 30 level from the bottom to the top.
Take Profit should be set on the upper curve of the Donchian range. Stop Loss can be placed outside the lower boundary of the Donchian Channel.
A sell order may be made under opposite conditions:
The price reached the upper boundary of the Donchian Channel. It fails to cross the upper boundary of the Donchian Channel, it rebounds and turns in the opposite direction. The second option - a shadow breakout occurs and the chart returns to the channel.
The oscillator has left the overbought area, breaking out the line of 70 downwards.
Fixing Take Profit should be set at the lower border of the Donchian Channel. A protective Stop-Loss can be placed outside the upper boundary of the Donchian Channel.
Donchian Channel + MACD Trading Strategy
This strategy involves opening a trade at the Donchian Channel boundaries breakout moments. Trading will be done based on the trend. To confirm the signals of border breakout a trend oscillator MACD is used.
The time frame of the chart is M15. The asset to be traded should have medium or high volatility.
It is possible to open a long position, provided that:
The Donchian Channel begins to widen in the direction of the uptrend. The maximums of the chart begin to increase sequentially;
The candlestick breaks out the upper boundary of the Donchian Channel and closed above it;
The MACD indicator is above zero, and the histogram is increasing.
If all three conditions coincide, it is possible to open a buy order. Stop Loss is placed behind the local minimum. Profit can be fixed by Take Profit, calculated using the formula SL*2, or manually when the opposite signal is received.
You may enter a short position when receiving the following signals:
Donchian Channel corridor begins to expand in the direction of the downtrend; The price minimums start to decrease consistently;
The candlestick crosses the lower level of the channel and closes under it.
The MACD indicator is below zero, the histogram is decreasing.
If all three signals coincide, one can open a short position right away. Stop Loss is placed behind the local maximum. The profit can be fixed by Take-Profit, equal to at least two Stop Losses. You can also fix the profit manually by closing the order when the signal to the contrary appears.
Advantages And Disadvantages Of The Donchian Channel Indicator
The Donchian Channel has its own characteristics. Among the advantages, we can note its simplicity and efficiency. The indicator consists of only three lines, which are superimposed over the chart of price movements.
The Donchian Channel gives sufficiently high-quality signals. However, it may sometimes be wrong in low time frames, as there is market noise on such charts. Therefore, it is recommended to combine it with other indicators.
Donchian Channel perfectly combines with oscillators, such as RSI, Stochastic Oscillator, MACD, etc. While trading price breakouts, the Donchian Channel is combined with trend indicators - Parabolic SAR, Power Fuse, MACD, Moving Average, etc.
Conclusion
Although the Donchian Channel signals look simple, they have already proven to be effective. Understanding the basis of channel formation, you can make your own "add-ons" to the strategy, such as using the MA as an additional indicator, etc. To better filter, the signals, try combining them on the chart with other indicators and oscillators.
Balance sheet: taking the first stepsToday we are going to start learning about fundamental analysis of companies. In my opinion, this is the basic skill you should have when picking stocks to invest in.
Once again, the main principle of the strategy I follow is to pick outstanding companies and buy their stocks at a discounted price.
You may have noticed that first-class products are occasionally discounted in stores, but not for long, because such products are quickly swept off the shelves, and almost the next day the price is again without a discount. Exactly the same strategy is applicable to the stock market. Now, fundamental analysis is a method for picking outstanding companies (that is, companies with strong fundamentals).
How can we tell if a company has a strong foundation or not? There is only one way - by analyzing its financial statements. Every listed company has to disclose this information publicly on its website. In other words, we don't have to extract that information - it is publicly available. You can also find it on TradingView and see the data in dynamics.
What is the content of this information? The company publishes three reports : balance sheet, income statement and cash flow statement.
The balance sheet, like the order book , can be presented as an open book. The left side of the book lists the company's assets and their valuation in monetary terms, and the right side lists the company's liabilities and equity , and their valuation in monetary terms.
What are company assets ? These are everything that belongs to the company: buildings, equipment, trademark, shares of other companies, cash in the cash register. In general, all tangible and intangible property of a company are assets.
What are liabilities and equity of a company? These are the sources of funds that gave rise to the assets. For example, if you bought a computer for $1000 with your savings, then the computer is an asset, and your own savings are equity. If a friend lent you $100, and you put the money in your pocket, the money in your pocket is an asset, and the debt to your friend is a liability. Based on these examples, you can make an imaginary balance sheet:
As you can see, the entry in the balance sheet is the name of the asset, liability or equity and their monetary value. Assets, liabilities and equity are inextricably linked, so the sum of assets is always equal to the sum of liabilities and equity .
If we were to write every asset in this way on the balance sheet of a large company, it would turn into an endless book of hundreds of pages. However, if we look at the balance sheets of huge corporations, they can fit on a single sheet of paper. This is due to the fact that over time invented to group the same type of balance sheet items. Let's look at how the company's balance sheet items are grouped:
Don't be frightened. Now we will try to digest this table with the help of an example we are already familiar with. Let's think back to our master cobbler , specifically to the period when he was just starting out.
Let's assume what exactly he had at that time: a garage, a table, a chair, a sewing machine, tools, a bag with leather and rubber, thread, a safe with money, a phone book with clients' contact information, a IOU from his friend, and oil company stocks.
I have now listed the assets of our master, or should I say, of his workshop. I should note that what is listed here is exactly what is directly related to his business. Even the money in the safe, the debt from his friend, and the oil company shares came about because of the existence of the business. Let's say the master's apartment or the bicycle he rides in the park are not assets, because they don't belong to the workshop. They belong to the master, but not to his business.
Let's categorize the workshop's assets into groups. There are two big groups: Current assets and Non-current assets .
How should you distinguish them? The general rule is this: Current assets are what a company's product is made of, and what can turn into money in the near future, so they can be called quick assets . Non-current assets are where and with what we create the product, and what can turn into money not so soon (so they can be called long-term assets ).
So, here we go:
- A garage, a table, a chair are where we create a product, so a long-term (non-current) asset.
- A sewing machine, tools - this is what we use to create a product - a long-term (non-current) asset.
- A bag with leather and rubber and thread is what a product is made from - a quick (current) asset.
- A safe with money is already real money - a quick (current) asset.
- A phone book with customer numbers - it's hard to sell it to someone quickly, such assets are also called intangible assets and are placed in long-term (non-current) assets.
- IOU from a friend, i.e. a friend bought boots from a master, but can pay only after receiving his salary - a quick (current) asset.
- Shares of an oil company - let's assume that a customer once paid for the boots with them - a long-term (non-current) asset.
So, we've just categorized the master's assets into two groups: current assets (quick assets) and non-current assets (long-term assets). In the next post, we'll break down the components of these two large groups. See you then!
Man on the shoulders of giantsIsaac Newton, who turned people's view of the world upside down, once said: "If I have seen further than others, it is by standing on the shoulders of giants". And indeed, each of us has a chance to discover something new for ourselves and others by drawing on the wisdom of our predecessors. I want to say a big thank you to Benjamin Graham, David Dodd, Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch, who openly shared their ideas with the world and inspired more than one private investor in their first investments.
I'm sure Mohnish Pabrai will join me in saying the same. Born in Mumbai, an engineer by training, he had no interest in the subject of stock investing until he was 30 years old. But by chance, after reading a book by Peter Lynch, he began to study the subject more deeply. Inch by inch he climbed the shoulders of the giants of value investing to see hitherto unknown horizons. He is now known as a successful investor, author of books on investing, and creator of incredibly kind philanthropic initiatives.
Listening to Mohnish Pabrai's lectures, I noted his ideas, which in many ways coincide with my own. I am happy to share them with you:
1. The market is always concerned about what will happen to the company in the future, so it cannot be 100% efficient (*).
(*) Let me remind you that according to "efficient market" theory, a company's current price reflects its "fair value" because any publicly known information instantly affects the price. Thus, an investor is unlikely to make a profit on any information, such as a company's strong financial statements, because the market has already reflected the event. However, this theory does not take into account the future, which we all think about every day and act in the present, including the market, based on those thoughts. For example, someone may think that a company's future is murky because of the news that has come out. This concern will be picked up by the crowd, and the stock will go down. Or on the contrary, the success of the company may be perceived as over-optimistic, and a real stir will start around the stock. No one knows the future, but thinking about it affects the present. For this reason, the current price of the company may not reflect its fair value, contrary to the "efficient market" theory.
2. Continuing with the first thought, the waves of pessimism and optimism will always be present in the market. They distort a company's value so much that they give us private investors a chance to buy and sell a company's stock profitably.
3. The more time you spend analyzing a company, the more you "fall in love" with it. Try to grasp this idea. After all, by spending a lot of time studying something, such as a company's excellent financial statements, we set ourselves up for what it must pay off as a profitable investment. Remember: the market doesn't owe you anything.
4. Often the decision to invest in a company can be made based on just a few surprising figures. For example, if the value of a company is equal to 50% of the amount of cash in its checking account. Mohnish Pabrai said that Warren Buffett used a reference book with the statements of thousands of companies, not to spend months studying each of them, but to find something that would really surprise him.
5. Mohnish Pabrai admitted that he has never once played the short and has no intention of doing so for the rest of his life. His math is really simple. If you play the short by selling a stock at $100, your maximum earnings are capped at $100 (which will happen when the stock drops to zero). Whereas a buyer of a $100 stock has a chance to sell it at both $1,000 and $2,000. There is no upside restriction by its very nature.
6. And the thought I want to conclude this post with is don't look for people to hand you a treasure on a platter. Looking for treasure is much more interesting! It's about not trying to replicate someone else's trades or portfolio positions. Try to make your own decisions. Try to see your horizon.
The unwavering shoulders of giants will help you in all of this.
Trend Channel Early Direction and Best Entry NIS- Nava Imbalance Strategy -
Using Only Price Action, We can find the best entry to catch those HUGE returns!
This is how to detect early direction and perfect entries and exit points using Wycoff method. (on diagonal trend channels not support/resistance)
This Wycoff pattern will create imbalances on parallel trend channels.
IMBALANCE (price moves outside of trend channel then returns.)
First imbalance is showing who is in charge regardless of trend channel direction.
Example
-IF first imbalance is on top, & trend channel is going up, Look for entry at new imbalance #2 at the bottom of trend channel to catch biggest move. Best Entry = @Fakeout / Safe Entry= @ return to trend and retest trend line.
-IF first imbalance is on top, & trend channel is going down, Price will move with trend until higher time frame trend channel line is hit. Price will then start to return to imbalance below slowly.
This pattern repeats on all trend channels that have been correctly placed.
- We find correct channel placements by making trend channels from daily down to entry time frame.
- Hide higher timeframe trend channels to see better in the lower time frame channels but will need to see where they are as price approaches the trend lines.
- Trend channels like to continue the push of a trend until bounce of higher time frame trend channel lines to follow higher trend channel or breakout.
You can follow price with trend channels once you have entered until price starts making imbalances in the opposing direction.
A pill for missed opportunitiesPrevious parts of the post:
Part 1: My Three Comrades: the Chart, the Screener, and the Watchlist
Part 2: Two captains of the same ship
The market is an element we take for granted. It can't stop when we're busy doing other things, and it can't work if the stock market is off and you personally have work days.
The small investor's impact on the market is close to zero. Some may not like it, but I see it as a big plus. I'm not the only one. Even Peter Lynch wrote about this . It is because of our size that we small investors have the ability to get the best buy and sell prices on stocks. Just imagine an elephant and a mouse trying to drink water from a coffee mug. Who has a better chance?
Like the best sales, attractive stock prices don't last long. This also applies to the period of increased stock prices that are interesting to sell. To make sure you don't miss this time, TradingView has an alert service.
Why do we need an alert system? For our convenience. Once we have selected fundamentally strong companies, our next step is to keep an eye on their stock price so we can buy them at a price we can benefit from.
You remember our strategy, right? Buy rooms in a great hotel, and even during a sale period.
How do you monitor these "sales"? You have two options: to monitor the price chart yourself during the trading period, or set up alerts so that if the stock price reaches a certain level, you will receive an SMS message to your phone or email, or a push-notification in the TradingView app (depending on your settings). Agree, this is very convenient.
So how do you set up the alerts?
1. First of all, you must open the chart of the stock you are going to configure the alerts for.
2. Then click on the "Alert" button at the top toolbar of the chart.
3. Set the alert parameters in the settings menu.
How do I read the settings in this picture?
If the Apple stock price is less than $130 per share, I will receive an alert every minute, all the time the stock is trading below $130.
The alert I will receive will contain the following message:
AAPL Less Than 130.00
If you don't want to get an alert every minute, set the trigger to "Only Once".
4. In the "Notifications" tab, you can configure where the alerts and the sound will go. The system of customized alerts will allow you to use your time effectively. You will not be chained to the monitor and you can calmly wait for the cherished message.
In the picture you can see that alerts can come as:
- push notification to your phone (if you have the TradingView app installed);
- a pop-up window on your monitor;
- a letter to your email address;
- a message to a web address (advanced feature for developers);
- SMS to your phone, but via email (i.e. your email service must have the ability to send copies of emails via SMS).
As for my investment strategy, it's quiet enough to work on it even without alerts. Mr. Market doesn't often come with insanely interesting prices , so it takes time to get to the target values. It's like waiting for an astronaut from the Moon: he can't return to Earth in a day, you have to wait patiently, with the occasional peek at the situation.
So, I'm concluding my series of posts dedicated to the basic functions of TradingView. I advise you to "play" with the platform for a while to get used to it as quickly as possible. In fact, it has a lot of features that you will discover over time. For now, that's it.
In the following posts, we will begin to examine perhaps the most important aspect of an investment strategy, which is fundamental analysis. Get ready, here comes the part that will require the most concentration. But then you will be able to navigate this topic with ease.
See you next time!